Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Diamondbacks Acquire Steven Souza in Three Team Trade

Diamondbacks Get: Steven Souza: 30 HR, .239/.351/.459, 16 SB, 120 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR from the Rays 
Minor leaguer Taylor Widener: 7-8, 3.39 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 129/50 K/BB, 119.1 IP at High Class A from the Yankees

Yankees Get: Brandon Drury: 13 HR, .267/.317/.447, 1 SB, 92 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR from the Diamondbacks

Rays Get: Anthony Banda: 2-3, 5.96 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 25/10 K/BB, 25.1 IP from the Diamondbacks
Minor leaguer Nick Solak: 12 HR, .297/.384/.452, 14 SB, 143 wRC+ at High Class A and AA from the Yankees
Two players to be named later from the Diamondbacks

There's always a lot to unpack with three team trades, but I am going to start off by saying the Diamondbacks were big winners here. They gave up four players, but they weren't impact guys, and in return brought on a very good outfielder and a solid prospect. Steven Souza is better than he gets credit for, and will replace J.D. Martinez while joining A.J. Pollock and David Peralta in that Arizona outfield. As I said, he's a very good player who hasn't gotten a lot of media love, partly due to his .239 batting average last year. Looking past that (because batting average doesn't matter), his on-base percentage was a more than solid .351 due to a very good 13.6% walk rate, and with his 30 home runs, he slugged .459 to be put together to a 120 wRC+, which was ahead of guys like Travis Shaw (119), Francisco Lindor (118), and Christian Yelich (115). Put that together his respectable defense, and he was worth 3.7 fWAR, the same as Andrew McCutchen. In summary, he hits for power, gets on base, and plays adequate defense. If you're not looking for a star, doesn't that check all of the boxes? He'll make $3.55 million in 2018, then has two more years of arbitration before becoming a free agent after the 2020 season. This is totally an upgrade for Arizona. For his career, Souza has 65 home runs, a .236/.325/.426 slash line, 35 stolen bases, and 6.4 fWAR over 399 games. The D-Backs also got minor league righty Taylor Widener from the Yankees, and he could be a quick riser through the minors. Originally drafted in the 12th round out of the University of South Carolina in 2016, Widener's pro debut was just about as good as it gets, as he put up a 0.47 ERA, a 0.63 WHIP, and a 59/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings in short season ball as well as with Class A Charleston that year. Spending 2017 with High Class A Tampa, he continued to thrive, going 7-8 with a 3.39 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 129/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 starts. He struck out 26.4% of those he faced, and will be ready for a AA trial to start the 2018 season. He's a fastball/slider guy, one who has struggled with command in the past but who seems to be making progress on that front. He may not be able to stick as a starter, but his fastball is up to 97 in relief and he could contribute as early as September of this season.

The Yankees get one player in exchange for their pair of prospects, but Brandon Drury fits right into their plans. He has significant experience at second base, third base, and the outfield, and he'll likely see plenty of time at the former two. Starlin Castro was traded to Miami and Chase Headley was traded to San Diego, leaving second and third base up to Ronald Torreyes and Miguel Andujar, respectively. While near-future second baseman Gleyber Torres has the higher ceiling as a prospect, Andujar is generally considered more major league ready, and Drury will help offset the number of at bats the contending Yankees have to commit to an unproven talent. As the season moves forward, though, Drury will likely see less time in the field as Andujar and Torres begin to take on larger roles. Drury himself is a productive hitter, coming off a season where he slashed .267/.317/.447 with 13 home runs in 135 games. However, his numbers were deeply skewed towards his hitter-friendly home park; at home, he slashed .302/.369/.528, while on the road, it was just .236/.266/.373. His power will play well at cozy Yankee Stadium, but he's also not as good as the surface numbers suggest. For Yankee fans, they should think of Kelly Johnson: some power, mediocre on base skills, and a useful glove. For his career, the Oregon native has 31 home runs, a .271/.319/.448 slash line, and 0.6 fWAR over 289 games.

Lastly, the Rays picked up two solid prospects (plus two players to be named later), but the return seems just a bit light to me, depending on the PTBNL's. Souza is a great player, but Corey Dickerson was the player who was DFA'd, and he's cheap and good. Christian Yelich is a better player than Souza, but not by all that much and Yelich's return was monstrous compared to Souza's. Anthony Banda has reached the majors, going 2-3 with a 5.96 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over eight games (four starts). Banda was very effective in the minors from 2014-2016, but wasn't great at AAA Reno this year, going 8-7 with a 5.39 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, striking out 116 and walking 51 in 122 innings. Banda is one of those pitchers with all of the skills necessary to succeed, including a full arsenal and good control, but he hasn't been able to put it together yet. Honestly, I find it odd that the Rays brought in yet another upper level starting pitcher, considering their rotation is nearly full with Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jacob Faria, and Matt Andriese, and they have about a million upper level prospects waiting for their chance, including Brent Honeywell, Jose De Leon, Chih-Wei Hu, Ryan Yarbrough, and Yonny Chirinos, among others. Lastly, the Rays rounded out their infield prospect chart by adding Nick Solak to a list that already includes Willy Adames and Christian Arroyo. Solak was taken in the second round of the 2016 draft out of Louisville and has had immediate success in the minors, slashing .305/.393/.441 with 15 home runs over 194 games in his two seasons, reaching AA. He started this season at High Class A Tampa, where he slashed .301/.397/.460 with ten home runs and 13 stolen bases in 100 games, earning a promotion to AA Trenton, where he slashed .286/.344/.429 with a pair of home runs in 30 games. Solak's defense is subpar and he's limited to second base or the outfield, but the bat could be very useful in Tampa. He hits for moderate power but has a knack for getting on base, and he could be a bat-first starting second baseman.

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