Monday, February 19, 2018

Red Sox Add J.D. Martinez to Middle of Lineup

J.D. Martinez: 45 HR, .303/.376/.690, 4 SB, 166 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR
Five years, $110 million (with buyouts after two years, $50 million and three years, $72 million)

While the Yankees added Giancarlo Stanton this offseason and potentially stand to see Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar emerge as stars this year, the Red Sox hadn't added a single player who wasn't on the roster last season until signing J.D. Martinez to a five year, $110 million contract. The deal comes with two opt-outs, one after two years and $50 million and the other after three years and $72 million, so if Martinez hits as expected, this could end up being a short term deal for Boston. That said, Martinez will be a huge addition to a Red Sox team with aspirations to win the AL East, coming off a season in which he slashed a ridiculous .303/.376/.690 with 45 home runs (including .302/.366/.741 with 29 home runs after a trade to Arizona). Now, Martinez didn't suddenly just get good this year; while his 166 wRC+ was a career high (and enough to finish third in the MLB behind Mike Trout and Aaron Judge had he qualified with 14 more plate appearances), Martinez did post wRC+'s of 154, 136, and 141 in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively, so he does have more of a track record than you might think. Detroit's Comerica Park suppressed his power a bit, which is reflected in wRC+'s part adjustment, but you can see that jump in his non-park adjusted wOBA (.391, .372, .384, .430 in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017) with that trade to Arizona in 2017. Fortunately, Fenway Park is almost as much of a launching pad as Arizona's Chase Field, so Martinez will likely mash near the rate he did this past season, making him one of the most valuable bats in the game. Joining the Red Sox outfield will be interesting, as Martinez is not a strong defender, so he will likely spend some significant time DH'ing. Right now, it looks like Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Mookie Betts are slated to start in the outfield with Hanley Ramirez at DH and Mitch Moreland at first (and prospect Sam Travis knocking at the door), so my guess is that it will be Moreland whose playing time takes the biggest hit, with JBJ losing some playing time as well. For his career, the DII prospect from Nova Southeastern University has 152 home runs, a .285/.342/.514 slash line, and 13.5 fWAR over 772 games.

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