Sunday, February 18, 2018

Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi for Prospect Jermaine Palacios

Twins Get: Jake Odorizzi: 10-8, 4.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 127/61 K/BB, 143.1 innings
Rays Get: minor leaguer Jermaine Palacios: 13 HR, .296/.333/.454, 20 SB, 124 wRC+ at Class A and High Class A

The Twins made a smart trade in acquiring starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi, while the trade could work out in the Rays favor as well. Good, proven pitching is hard to come by, and while Odorizzi has only one year left on his contract (at $6.3 million), he has made at least 28 starts in each of the past four seasons, posting ERA's of 4.13, 3.35, 3.69, and 4.14. He missed two short stretches to minor hamstring and back injuries but was otherwise pretty consistent, and he closed out the season with a strong September in which he posted a 1.03 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and a 30/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings. On the down side, his 21% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate were both career worsts, as were his 15.3% soft hit rate and 36.8% hard hit rate. Still, the 27 year old is a classic mid-rotation starter, one who slots in nicely with Ervin Santana (once he recovers from finger surgery around the start of May), Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, and some combination of Phil Hughes, Adalberto Mejia, and Stephen Gonsalves. This is the third trade of Odorizzi's career, but after being a part of the Zack Greinke deal of 2010 and the James Shields/Wade Davis/Wil Myers trade of 2012, he gets to headline his own trade this time. For his career, the southern Illinois native is 40-38 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 129 games (126 starts).

The Rays brought back only one prospect, shortstop Jermaine Palacios, but he has a chance to make a difference in for Tampa down the road. After a forgettable 2016 season for Class A Cedar Rapids (1 HR, .222/.276/.287 in 71 games), Palacios repeated the level in 2017 and the results were remarkably different. Over 62 games, the 20 year old cracked eleven home runs and slashed .320/.362/.544 while stealing nine bases with a 46/12 strikeout to walk ratio, earning a promotion to High Class A Fort Myers. In 62 games, he struggled a bit more, slashing .269/.303/.359 with a pair of home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio. Personally, he looks like a big risk to me, given his aggressive approach and the fact that he hasn't actually proven that he can hit above Class A. The Rays are betting on the tools here, given Palacios' gap power, speed, and defense, but he has to tone down his approach as well as learn to use his speed more effectively on the bases. His ceiling may be Francisco Lindor with less defense and power, but he could also flame out in AA. He turns 22 in July.

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