Thursday, February 7, 2019

Phillies Acquire J.T. Realmuto

Phillies Get
C J.T. Realmuto (2019 Age: 28): 21 HR, .277/.340/.484, 3 SB, 126 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR

Marlins Get
C Jorge Alfaro (2019 Age: 25-26): 10 HR, .262/.324/.407, 3 SB, 96 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
RHP Sixto Sanchez (2019 Age: 20-21): 4-3, 2.51 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 45/11 K/BB, 46.2 IP in High A
LHP Will Stewart (2019 Age: 21-22): 8-1, 2.06 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 90/21 K/BB, 113.2 IP in Class A
$250,000 in international bonus money

Phillies Perspective
The Phillies gave up a huge haul headlined by their top prospect to acquire the game's best catcher, but when you want to win a World Series, these are the things you have to do. They can actually stomach the loss of Sixto Sanchez due to the presence of Aaron Nola as well as numerous near-MLB ready starting pitchers in the minors, such as Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Enyel De Los Santos, JoJo Romero, and Connor Seabold. By including Jorge Alfaro, who would have been relegated to backup catcher if he hadn't gone to Miami, the Phillies were also able to avoid giving up one of their secondary top prospects such as Alec Bohm or Adam Haseley. Losing Sanchez really hurts, but a World Series ring could make them forget real quick. If Realmuto attracts Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, even better.

Moving on, I'm sure Phillies fans would much rather hear about J.T. Realmuto than Sixto Sanchez. He'll immediately slot in as the starting catcher as well as into the middle of the order. Where Rhys Hoskins was originally supposed to be the guy to lead a decent offensive core consisting of Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, and Odubel Hernandez, Realmuto steps in and transforms the middle of the lineup. In 2018, he slashed .277/.340/.484 with 21 home runs for the Marlins, but it gets better. He was much better on the road (13 HR, .283/.350/.520) than at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park (8 HR, .269/.329/.444), a trend that has remained true throughout his career, and moving to more hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park will almost certainly boost his numbers. For 2019, it's not unreasonable to expect 25 home runs or more plus an on-base percentage over .350, which together with his defense would make him a five win catcher. He's only under contract for $5.9 million in 2019 and arbitration will limit how much he will make in 2020, so he's a real bargain monetarily. For his career, the Oklahoma City native has 59 home runs, a .279/.327/.442 slash line, and 14.3 fWAR over 540 games since 2014.

Marlins Perspective
The Marlins fielded offers on Realmuto for well over a year, asking for impact players like Victor Robles, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, and Nick Senzel, among others along the way, showing extreme patience that many thought would actually end up costing them. However, after landing elite prospect Sixto Sanchez in a deal with the Phillies, the patience paid off. Among the Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna trades, Sanchez is easily the best prospect they have acquired, and with Jorge Alfaro coming in, they don't have to worry about finding someone to catch in 2019.

Even though Sixto Sanchez is the headliner, I'll start with Jorge Alfaro, the lone major leaguer in the return. He's a 25 year old catcher whose strengths and weaknesses are both very apparent, as his power at the plate is balanced out by his over-aggressive approach and high strikeout totals while his cannon arm behind the plate is balanced out by his otherwise decent defense. His high upside will take patience to bring out, though at 25, it's very likely that he never reaches it. As it stands, Alfaro evens out to an average hitter and an average defender, though surprisingly few catchers can actually say the same these days and his defense has in fact been improving. Without much in the terms of challengers, Alfaro should hold down that catcher's role for the foreseeable future as roughly a two win player. For his career, the Colombia native has 15 home runs, a .270/.327/.422 slash line, and 2.5 fWAR over 143 games since 2016.
I've said it multiple times and I'll say it again: Sixto Sanchez is a stud. As I highlighted in the Phillies farm system review, he's a 20 year old right hander with a mid to upper 90's fastball with movement at the lower velocities, a very good curveball, and an advanced changeup, but unlike most young kids with electric stuff, he can actually command it and command it well. He battled elbow inflammation in 2018, which led to the Phillies questioning the six footer's durability just enough that they were comfortable with shipping him to Miami. Because the stuff and command are both so good at such a young age, the only thing that could realistically stop Sanchez from becoming a true ace would be that durability factor. The Marlins will likely handle him carefully as he transitions to AA in 2019, and a healthy Sanchez could be the top prospect in baseball by the time Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis graduate off the lists later this season. Moving on, Will Stewart is a 21 year old lefty who has slowly worked his way up through the low minors and reached Class A Lakewood this year, dominating to the tune of an 8-1 record, a 2.06 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings. He's a sleeper prospect who fuels his success with good command of a low 90's fastball and a great changeup, and he could be a quick riser now that he has established himself with that breakout 2018. Stewart has back end of the rotation projection and serves to cover some of the risk that Sanchez comes with.

No comments:

Post a Comment