The Dodgers feature a lot of high upside talent, but unlike a lot of other upside-oriented systems such as that of the Rangers or Indians, there is both a lot of depth here and more refinement in the high-upside players. The Dodgers do a terrific job of player development, which is obvious to us after they produced 2016 NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager, 2017 NL Rookie of the Year Cody Bellinger, and 2018 3rd place NL ROY finisher Walker Buehler in consecutive seasons. Even with that string of graduations and some trades that have sent away Yusniel Diaz, Dean Kremer, and James Marinan, among others, that player development system has enabled the team to continue keeping up a high level farm. Interestingly, this team also has a high number of catchers coming through the system with four guys that I'd like to note in this writeup – the most of any team so far.
Affiliates: AAA Oklahoma City Dodgers, AA Tulsa Drillers, High A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, Class A Great Lakes Loons, rookie level Ogden Raptors, and complex level AZL and DSL Dodgers
High Minors Hitters: OF Alex Verdugo, C Will Smith, 1B Edwin Rios, C Keibert Ruiz, SS Gavin Lux, OF DJ Peters, and SS Errol Robinson
There is a lot of talent very close to the major leagues for the Dodgers, and with an incredibly deep big league roster as it its, a lot of these guys are expendable in a potential J.T. Realmuto or otherwise big trade. If they were actually able to find him playing time, I would call 22 year old Alex Verdugo the next in line in the Seager-Bellinger-Buehler parade, but with an already-crowded outfield, he's probably best off somewhere else right now because he's absolutely ready. In 2018, the Tucson native slashed .329/.391/.472 with ten home runs and a 47/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AAA Oklahoma City (plus .260/.329/.377 over 37 major league games), his second straight season with an OPS above .800 and a strikeout rate below 13% at AAA. He has exceptional contact ability that enables him to put even the fastest fastballs and best breaking balls in play, and that makes his moderate power play up. He'll never be a 25-30 homer bat in the majors, but he'll post on-base percentages well north of .350 while his cannon arm will enable him to play good defense in right field. He's ready now, and somebody just needs to find him some playing time. Please. 23 year old Will Smith (not to be confused with Giants reliever Will Smith or with rapper/actor Will Smith) slashed .264/.358/.532 at AA Tulsa before slumping to just .138/.206/.218 at Oklahoma City in 2018, totaling 20 home runs and a 112/43 strikeout to walk ratio and a composite .233/.322/.455 line over 98 games between the two levels. He's not your typical catcher because he has some speed (he has 15 stolen bases in 18 career attempts in the minors) and can actually play the infield if you ask him, but the Dodgers are perfectly content keeping him behind the plate, where he is above average defensively. While the bat was considered a little light early in his career, his big run through the AA Texas League this year has boosted his stock and bumped him from likely back-up to possible starter. The slump in AAA was enough to temper expectations a little bit, but if the Dodgers don't acquire Realmuto or another catcher before the season, Smith absolutely has a shot to take over as the starting catcher at some point in 2019 if he makes the necessary adjustments. Don't expect high batting averages, but he should be able to produce just enough. 24 year old Edwin Rios has hit and hit everywhere he has been in the minors, including a .304/.355/.482 slash line with ten home runs and a 110/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at Oklahoma City this year. The power was a bit down after he blasted 27 and 24 home runs in 2016 and 2017, respectively, and so far he has proven that his aggressive approach does not stop him from producing against high level pitching. He'll have to continue producing because he is limited to first base defensively, and while he's more likely a platoon bat than a future starter, he might get a chance to do some damage at the major league level if traded to another, shallower team. If his plate discipline holds up just enough, he should be able to slug 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages. Moving down a level, 20 year old Keibert Ruiz gives the Dodgers another high level catching prospect, and his ceiling is even higher than Smith's. In 2018, Ruiz slashed .268/.328/.401 with 12 home runs and a 33/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Tulsa, primarily showing excellent plate discipline for a kid who just turned 20 mid-season. He makes steady contact and rarely gets fooled at the plate, and while he's not Will Smith behind it, he's good enough defensively that the Dodgers won't have to worry about moving him to a different position. How the Dodgers handle getting both Ruiz and Smith playing time in 2019 will be interesting, whether that means aggressively promoting one to the majors, holding one back in AA where they don't belong, or giving Smith more reps in the infield so Ruiz can get more starts behind the plate in AAA. Of course, one could find themselves traded and then this wouldn't be an issue. Ultimately, Ruiz projects as a starting catcher who can post high on-base percentages while hitting 15-20 home runs per season, and at his best he could be an All Star. 21 year old Gavin Lux had a breakout year in 2018 and has pushed himself near the top of the Dodgers' prospect rankings, having slashed .324/.399/.514 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and an 88/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa. He's the complete package as a player, showing power, on-base ability, plate discipline, some speed, and the ability to stick in the infield defensively, all as a kid who just turned 21 in November. While he may be forced to move to second base from shortstop (Corey Seager's presence doesn't help Lux's chances there anyways), he has the bat to profile there and has All Star upside. 23 year old DJ Peters slashed .236/.320/.473 with 29 home runs and a 192/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games with Tulsa, showing tremendous power from a 6'6" frame and pushing his career minor league home run total to 69 over 330 games. He strikes out a ton and will need to seriously cut down on his swing and miss tendency, but he has the kind of power than will play and play well in the majors if he can get to it enough. His cannon arm offsets his so-so range in the outfield, and it will be interesting to see whether Peters can improve his approach enough to make an impact with the Dodgers. Lastly, 24 year old Errol Robinson, an Ole Miss product with a great name, slashed .247/.309/.353 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games with Tulsa, looking like a solid utility infield prospect at this point. The bat is a little bit too light to envision him starting, but he is competent enough at the plate and plays good enough defense all over the infield to stick on major league benches for a while.
High Minors Pitchers: RHP Dennis Santana, RHP Josh Sborz, RHP Dustin May, RHP Tony Gonsolin, RHP Mitchell White, RHP Yadier Alvarez, and RHP Marshall Kasowski
The Dodgers bring a ton of pitching to the table, especially in the high minors, where their army of right handers includes high ceiling arms, pitchability guys, and relievers. 22 year old Dennis Santana is a converted shortstop who posted a 2.54 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 65/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, also reaching the major leagues for one rough start at Coors Field. A shoulder injury cut his season short in June, but his mid 90's fastball and good slider combined with improving command give him enough in his arsenal to succeed in the majors today, and assuming health, his floor at this point is as an effective big league reliever. If he can return healthy in 2019 and improve his changeup, he has a real shot at becoming a mid-rotation starter. 25 year old Josh Sborz, who played high school baseball one town away from me in Virginia at the same time I was playing junior varsity, is just about major league ready after posting a 3.88 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 71/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.1 innings at Tulsa and Oklahoma City. He's purely a relief prospect but brings a mid 90's fastball and a good slider to the table while also adding a changeup, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he won't just leave meatballs over the plate against major league hitters. He should be up and contributing in 2019. Now, 21 year old Dustin May is easily the top pitching prospect in the system, finishing up a 2018 where he posted a 3.39 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between High A Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa. The 6'6" Texan has the best combination of stuff and command in the system, bringing a low to mid 90's fastball that induces plenty of ground balls, a hard cutter that gives hitters a slightly different look, a big curveball, and a changeup. However, unlike most young, lanky fireballers with deep arsenals, he can actually command everything pretty well, and that enabled him to succeed with a 3.67 ERA and a 28/12 strikeout to walk ratio as a 20 year old in AA this past August. He'll need some more upper minors seasoning in 2019, but if everything breaks right, he has top of the rotation potential and will likely settle in as a mid-rotation starter even if everything doesn't break perfectly in his favor. Other pitching prospects such as Houston's Forrest Whitley, Philadelphia's Sixto Sanchez, and Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller may be more proven and more exciting, but May is in that second tier of pitching prospects just under the cream of the crop. 24 year old Tony Gonsolin dominated the minors statistically with a 10-2 record a, 2.60 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 155/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 innings at Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa in 2018. The 6'2" Californian throws in the mid 90's and adds a full repertoire highlighted by a nasty splitter but also including a slider and a changeup, and while he lacks pinpoint command, it's tough to keep all of those pitches straight and he does. Look for Gonsolin to develop into a potential #4 starter. 24 year old Mitchell White, another California product (San Jose), followed up a breakout 2017 with a so-so 2018, posting a 4.53 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and an 88/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings at Tulsa, bringing a devastating mid 90's fastball/hard slider combination as well as a good curveball. He doesn't miss nearly as many bats as he should because his command isn't great and he tends to leave balls over the plate and get hit, so improving that command could shoot him up prospect rankings and make him a potential mid-rotation starter. However, if he doesn't (he is 24, for what it's worth), the stuff will play very well in the bullpen and he could become a high leverage reliever. 22 year old Yadier Alvarez is a very interesting prospect who posted a 4.23 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 62/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.1 innings between Tulsa and complex level rehab, showing premium stuff with no idea where it's going. The former bonus baby who signed out of Cuba for $16 million as a 19 year old in 2015 sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 101 in short stints, adding a great slider to miss bats. However, he has struggled with command and a groin strain in 2018 certainly didn't help, and if he can't figure out how to at least guide the ball to one part of the strike zone or another (or learn how to throw a changeup), he is probably best suited in relief. There, his control problems will be masked by the fact that he'll flirt with 100 MPH and sharpen his slider even further, but his upside is so high as a starter that the Dodgers will do everything they can to keep him in the rotation. Lastly, 23 year old Marshall Kasowski had a great season in 2018 by posting a 2.09 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 111/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings at Class A Great Lakes, Rancho Cucamonga, and Tulsa, just with his sheer mid 90's velocity and high release point. His secondary stuff needs work and he's a relief-only prospect at this point, but it's hard to argue with a 42.5% strikeout rate across three levels. If the high strikeout rate isn't enough to get you interested, he survived a near-fatal car accident while in college at the University of Houston and worked his way back after transferring to West Texas A&M outside of Amarillo.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Jeren Kendall, C Connor Wong, 2B Jeter Downs, OF Starling Heredia, and C Diego Cartaya
The Dodgers aren't as deep in the low minors as they are in the upper levels when it comes to hitters, with most of the guys down there looking more like wild cards than bona fide prospects, though this group could produce some real value when it's all said and done. 22 year old Jeren Kendall had a disappointing season where he slashed .215/.300/.356 with 12 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 158/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga, which is already a hitter-friendly context. His strengths, namely speed and outfield defense, are very apparent, as is his main weaknesses, contact. He strikes out so much (32% in 2018) that he struggles to get to what could be above average raw power in time, though fortunately his decently high walk rate (10.5%) is enough to keep him afloat for now. Kendall's defense and draft stock (first rounder, 23rd overall out of Vanderbilt in 2017) will buy his bat plenty of time, but if he doesn't start making contact soon, he'll be a first round bust. 22 year old Connor Wong, taken two rounds after Kendall in the 2017 draft out of Houston (third round, 100th overall), has gotten off to the hotter start and slashed .269/.350/.480 with 19 home runs, six stolen bases, and a 138/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at Rancho Cucamonga. Wong, like Will Smith (referenced in upper minors hitters section), is an athletic catcher who could also play the infield in a pinch, though his behind-the-plate defense is a bit behind Smith's. Wong has an average bat that produces average power and could use a little work when it comes to plate discipline, but for a catcher, that will play. He more likely has a back-up catcher or even super utility future, though improvement in the plate discipline department could improve his chances of starting one day. 20 year old Jeter Downs, acquired from the Reds in the crazy Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade, is probably the best prospect in this section after slashing .257/.351/.402 with 13 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Class A. He was also a member of that 2017 draft (competitive balance round, 32nd overall out of a Miami area high school) and while none of his tools stand out, he also doesn't really have any weaknesses. He shows average power and average contact ability but adds to his offensive profile with good plate discipline, and he makes up for his average infield defense with a grinder attitude, so while second base looks like his most likely long-term home, he'll make it as difficult as he can for the Dodgers to keep him off shortstop. His upside is that of a starting second baseman, though I find it unlikely that he'll end up a true impact bat. 19 year old Starling Heredia was signed out of the Dominican Republic for $2.6 million in 2015 but aside from glimpses in the rookie level Pioneer League in 2017, he hasn't lived up to his billing. In 2018, he slashed .192/.260/.332 with seven home runs and a 92/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, mostly at Class A Great Lakes, struggling to get to his big raw power much at all. He was young for the Midwest League but not crazy young, and he'll need more time their in 2019 to hone his approach. His upside remains very high, though the risk is just as high and he has a lot of work to do to reach that ceiling. Lastly, 17 year old Diego Cartaya is yet to step on a minor league field, but the Venezuelan catcher signed for $2.5 million and gives the Dodgers yet another potential starting catcher down on the farm. He's unremarkable but competent as a hitter, and when you're a plus defensive catcher like he is, competence is all you need at the plate. That good defense will give the bat plenty of time to develop, and as a kid who will spend the whole 2019 season at 17 years old, anything could happen with the bat.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Edwin Uceta, RHP Gerardo Carrillo, RHP Josiah Gray, LHP John Rooney, and RHP Braydon Fisher
As with the hitters, the Dodgers have more exciting talent up near the majors ,but there is more upside in the low minors in terms of pitching than there is in terms of hitting. 21 year old Edwin Uceta finds himself right in the middle of the minor league rung, having posted a 3.89 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings at Class A Great Lakes and High A Rancho Cucamonga, though he showed much better at the lower level (3.25 ERA, 103/27 K/BB) than at the higher one (6.97 ERA, 28/12 K/BB). Uceta is six feet tall and listed at just 155 pounds, but the small right hander brings pretty good control of pretty good stuff to the table with a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and an advanced changeup. That combination of stuff and command proved to be too much for Class A hitters, and while High A hitters had an easier time putting it in play, just a little sharpening of that command should help him pass the level. While his small frame could lead to durability issues, he tossed 120.1 regular season innings in 2018 and added 5.2 shutout innings in his lone postseason start in High A (which would have brought his ERA down from 6.97 to 5.47). How he handles another full season, as well as tougher competition, in 2019 will be very telling as to where the 21 year old's future lies, with his current ceiling looking like a #3 or #4 starter. 20 year old Gerardo Carrillo is another little righty coming in at the same height and weight as Uceta, and he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 50/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings at Great Lakes and complex ball. His stuff is actually better than Uceta's, with a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a good changeup, though both Uceta's command and durability are a bit more proven than Carrillo's at this point. His future is even tougher to predict than Uceta's, but his upside is arguably higher and a very possible breakout season in 2019 could push him way up the Dodgers' prospect rankings, assuming health. 21 year old Josiah Gray, over from the Reds with Jeter Downs in the Yasiel Puig trade, posted a 2.58 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 59/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings in rookie ball after being drafted in the competitive balance round (72nd overall) out of Le Moyne in 2018. He's actually very new to pitching after converting from shortstop in college, and his fresh arm produces low to mid 90's fastballs that pair nicely with a good slider. He's still learning the finer aspects of pitching, such as a changeup and good command, though his control is already coming along nicely and he was very young for a college junior anyways. There is still reliever risk if he can't develop that changeup, but Gray, like Carrillo, has breakout potential for 2019 if his command develops as hoped. 22 year old John Rooney was also a product of the 2018 draft (third round, 104th overall out of Hofstra), earning his draft status with a monster junior season (8-2, 1.23 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 108/27 K/BB in 95 IP). He followed that up with a 1.80 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 21/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings between complex ball and Great Lakes, adding 2.2 shutout innings in the Midwest League playoffs. Rooney is a 6'5" lefty and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but his good slider and command, as well as his height, help both play up. He looks like a prototypical back-end starter at this point and could move fairly quickly in that capacity if his command holds up and he stays healthy. Lastly, the Dodgers took now-18 year old Braydon Fisher with their next pick in the 2018 draft, scooping him up out of a Houston area high school in the fourth round before he posted a 2.05 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings in complex ball. Fisher, who was young for his class with a July birthday, brings great pure stuff with a low 90's fastball and a good slider, and at 6'4" with a quick arm, he has plenty of projection. I really liked this pick on draft day and I think Fisher has the stuff and upside to profile as at least a mid-rotation starter if not a #2 guy at best. He has a lot of work to do in refining his delivery and getting more consistent with his control, but I really like the upside. He'll still be a teenager through mid-season 2020, so while he may not break out immediately, he's a name to track.
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