2021 draftees: 29. Top school: Indiana (6)
2021 preseason writeup (published 11/17/2020)
Top draftees:
2-59, Braves: RHP/SS Spencer Schwellenbach (Nebraska)
2-61, Twins: LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan)
3-79, Rockies: RHP McCade Brown (Indiana)
3-94, White Sox: RHP Sean Burke (Maryland)
3-98, Twins: LHP Cade Povich (Nebraska)
6-176, Giants: LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State)
7-209, Marlins: RHP Gabe Bierman (Indiana)
The Big Ten is probably a top-two conference for both football and basketball, but in baseball, it's well behind the other four "power five" and I had to dig pretty deep to find early round prospects for 2022. In 2021, the league saw five players go in the top one hundred picks, and unfortunately I don't think they'll match that in 2022. This is a pitching-heavy list that, if anything, is strong on left handed pitchers that take up four of the ten slots. No one school dominates the list, as Rutgers and Michigan (two apiece) are the only two schools with more than one player.
1. OF Clark Elliott, Michigan.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 185 lbs. Born 9/29/2000. Hometown: Barrington, IL.
2021: 5 HR, .270/.403/.428, 8 SB, 34/30 K/BB in 43 games.
For the second year in a row, the top preseason prospect in the conference comes from Michigan. Clark Elliott has been trending up slowly but steadily ever since he reached campus in Ann Arbor, bumping his slash line from .245/.369/.340 as a freshman to a very respectable .270/.403/.428 as a sophomore. This summer, he continued to build on that progress and won the Cape Cod League batting title with a .344/.464/.478 slash line, adding a pair of home runs and posting a very strong 20/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games. He's a hit over power outfielder that combines an advanced approach at the plate with strong feel for the barrel to find himself on base as consistently as anybody in the conference and against good pitching. While he'll send more balls into the gaps than over fences, he's not just a slap hitter and will punish you if you leave a ball in his wheelhouse, showing a chance at average power if he can get a little stronger and perhaps add some loft. With plus speed, those gappers quickly turn into doubles and triples, and that speed helps him profile long term in center field as well. It's a prototypical leadoff profile that's especially suited for today's game because he draws plenty of walks, and given that he's been consistently getting better, the Chicago-area product has a great chance to build on his stock even further with a strong 2022. As it stands, Elliott probably projects for 10-15 home runs a year with relatively high on-base percentages, which probably puts him in the second or third round if the draft were today.
2. LHP Cole Kirschsieper, Illinois.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 5'11", 170 lbs. Born 12/27/2000. Hometown: Frankfort, IL.
2021: 5.82 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 48/13 K/BB in 38.2 innings.
There's getting hot, then there's whatever Cole Kirschsieper did the second half of this spring and throughout the summer. Beginning his sophomore season in the Illinois rotation, he brought a 9.15 ERA into mid-April and then turned his season around on a dime, posting a 2.00 ERA and a 27/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings the rest of the way mostly in a short relief role. Fresh off his strong finish, he cranked it up another notch over the summer and between the Appalachian League (21 IP), Cape Cod League (12 IP), and US Collegiate National Team (3 IP), he was nearly unhittable: 36 IP, 1 ER (0.25 ERA), 12 H, 17 BB, 54 K. And that was against good competition. A soft tossing lefty when he reached campus in Urbana-Champaign, Kirschsieper has added a tick of velocity but still only sits around 90 with his fastball, dropping in an average sweepy slider and an above average changeup. Despite the lack of power in his arsenal, hitters simply can't seem to pick him up. He hides the ball well with a crossfire, low three quarters delivery, and despite just average command, hitters are always off balance and never seem to be on any of his pitches. The 5'11" lefty lacks much projection and won't stand out in pro ball with his present combination of stuff and command, but he repeats his delivery well and even a small step forward into the low 90's with his fastball could have pro teams very interested. For now, it's probably a long relief projection, but he's my breakout pick for the Big Ten this spring and I could see a very different projection come draft day in 2022.
3. RHP Cameron Weston, Michigan.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 215 lbs. Born 8/27/2000. Hometown: Canonsburg, PA.
2021: 7-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 69/29 K/BB in 83.1 innings.
Cameron Weston was just barely eligible for last year's draft, but after a strong season in the Michigan rotation, the money wasn't quite where he wanted it and he'll head back to Ann Arbor to build his stock. Weston sits in the low 90's with a sinking fastball, topping out around 95 and adding an average slider and splitter. At present, it's not the kind of stuff that misses a ton of bats, with a relatively pedestrian 20.2% strikeout rate in 2021 against almost exclusively Big Ten competition, but it is the kind of stuff that avoids hard contact and eats up innings. In fact, his 83.1 innings led the entire conference, while he was one of just six Big Ten starters to make at least 14 starts. The 6'2" righty generally shows above average control of his arsenal and should get to above average command in time as he gets better about repeating his relatively simple delivery, so combining that with his strong frame, you get a pretty safe bet back-end starter. For now, it's hard projecting more than a #4 or #5 starter type, so taking a step forward with one of his offspeed pitches will be key if he wants to go in the top four or five rounds. The Pittsburgh-area native may have been eligible last year as a sophomore, but only barely, so he'll still be age appropriate for this year's draft.
4. RHP Jack Perkins, Indiana.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 215 lbs. Born 12/26/1999. Hometown: Kokomo, IN.
2021 (at Louisville): 1-1, 7.31 ERA, 2.19 WHIP, 15/22 K/BB in 16 innings.
This could be Seth Lonsway part two, but to this point Jack Perkins has shown even less command than his Ohio State predecessor. Perkins began his career at Louisville, but after missing 2020 with Tommy John surgery, he came back completely unable to throw strikes and got into just three games after April 6th as the Cardinals collapsed. A Kokomo native, he transferred back to his home state this year and will pitch for Indiana, where hopefully the Hoosier staff can help him figure things out. Perkins has absolutely wicked stuff, probably the best in the conference. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 97 in short stints, adding a plus slider with ridiculous spin rates that can be absolutely devastating when located. He also adds a curveball and changeup, but both are fringy pitches for now. The 6'1" righty jerks through his delivery a bit and really struggles to repeat his release point, often yanking pitches into the dirt or sailing then up. Set to turn 22 this winter, it's unlikely Perkins ever becomes a full time starter in pro ball unless a team like the Dodgers or Indians can miraculously overhaul his mechanics, but I know there are quite a few teams out there that would absolutely love to get their hands on an arm and arsenal like that. In 2021, his goal will be to show that there's more to the package than just explosive stuff and that he's a pitcher, not just a thrower.
5. 1B Peyton Williams, Iowa.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'5", 250 lbs. Born 9/14/2000. Hometown: Johnston, IA.
2021: 6 HR, .295/.470/.582, 0 SB, 37/34 K/BB in 38 games.
The Iowa Hawkeyes may be better known for their football and basketball programs, but this year, one of the best hitters in the entire conference resides in Iowa City. In 2021, Peyton Williams was exactly the kind of hitter that opposing managers circled in the lineup, getting on base at nearly a .500 clip while threatening to send a baseball into the bleachers at any point. He's an extremely imposing presence at the plate, listed at 6'5" and 250 pounds, with plus raw power that he gets to with a simple, direct swing from the left side. Williams is a disciplined hitter as well, taking his walks when pitchers won't give him something to hit, though there is just a little bit of swing and miss in his game. It's important that he keeps that swing and miss to a minimum because he provides little defensive value as a first baseman-only with well below average speed, so his bat will completely carry him. With his power and patience combination, the Des Moines-area product should provide plenty of value with that bat and could hit his way into the middle of a big league lineup one day, though to be more comfortable with that projection, evaluators will want to see him tap his power more often in games and clear more fences rather than shooting line drives into the gaps or yanking them down the line.
6. LHP Ryan Ramsey, Maryland.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6', 190 lbs. Born 1/18/2001. Hometown: Montvale, NJ.
2021: 5-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 43/12 K/BB in 37.2 innings.
A year after allowing seven earned runs in five innings as a freshman, Ryan Ramsey has steadily built his draft stock in 2021. He worked in a relief role for most of the season, throwing anywhere from one to four innings at a time, then was called upon to make his first college start in Maryland's regional matchup with Charlotte. Despite never having gone more than four innings in any appearance, he took the ball for eight innings that day and allowed just one run to a potent 49ers offense, thrusting himself into 2022 draft conversations. Ramsey only continued to improve in the New England Collegiate Baseball League this summer, posting a 2.53 ERA and a 51/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 32 innings against pretty solid competition. He's a 6' lefty armed with a low 90's fastball and a solid curveball and changeup, all of which he commands well and uses to attack the strike zone to get ahead. He's almost always in control of his at bats and after going at least five innings in half of his appearances in the NECBL, he's starting to prove he can handle a starting role. How the northern New Jersey product takes to that role over a full season in 2022 will determine whether he's a legitimate top five rounds candidate or more of a back of day two/day three flier, but lefties with his combination of stuff and command don't grow on trees and he'll have a lot of mid-Atlantic scouts in to see him throw.
7. RHP JP Massey, Minnesota.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 205 lbs. Born 4/1/2000. Hometown: Chicago, IL.
2021: 0-4, 10.80 ERA, 2.85 WHIP, 22/33 K/BB in 20 innings.
JP Massey entered the 2021 season as one of the top prospects in the conference, pegged by many to be a major breakout candidate that could pitch his way into the top couple of rounds. At the time, he showed a fastball up to 96 and could drop in some sharp sliders, all with playable command and an extremely projectable 6'5" frame. Unfortunately, everything regressed and his stock plummeted. The fastball was down to around 90 most of the time, while his slider remained inconsistent and his fringe-average command completely disintegrated. Relatively young for his class with an April birthday, he won't turn 22 until the middle of the upcoming season, so the Chicago native still has time to turn things around and the frame is still as projectable as ever. In 2022, he'll need to get more comfortable corralling his long arms and legs into a more repeatable motion, something he's been able to do at least somewhat consistently in the past, just so Minnesota can be comfortable handing him consistent innings. From there, if he can reclaim his 2020 velocity, we have the makings of a very intriguing relief prospect on our hands. At this point, it's hard to project Massey as a starter in pro ball, but he does have a curveball and a changeup that he has used at times that have looked good, albeit inconsistent, in the past. There is still big upside here if he can pull it all together.
8. LHP Dale Stanavich, Rutgers.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'11", 175 lbs. Born 6/23/1999. Hometown: Amsterdam, NY.
2021: 1-0, 3.13 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 30/9 K/BB in 23 innings.
The oldest player on this list, Dale Stanavich is also the most well-travelled and will be 23 by the time the draft rolls around. An Upstate New York native, he began his career at Marshall in West Virginia before transferring to Herkimer JC near his hometown. After two years there, he jumped once more to Rutgers, where he led the team in saves as one of their most reliable bullpen arms. Stanavich's stock got a nice boost this summer with an excellent run through the Cape Cod League, where he put up a nice 2.29 ERA and a 36/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings. A bit undersized at 5'11", he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has tightened his breaking ball into a sharp slider that darts across the zone. While Stanavich is unlikely to start in pro ball for multiple reasons, his newfound stuff combined with average command and a track record of performance against good competition make him an interesting relief candidate. The lefty could also move relatively quickly given his experience, and anybody who strikes out 45% of his opponents on the Cape is certainly worth watching no matter their age.
9. LHP Brian Fitzpatrick, Rutgers.
Bat: S. Throw: L. 6'7", 230 lbs. Born 6/1/2000. Hometown: Port Jefferson, NY.
2021: 3-2, 6.11 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 20/7 K/BB in 17.2 innings.
Make that two left handed Rutgers relievers from New York that boosted their stock with a strong run through the Cape Cod League. Brian Fitzpatrick, like Dale Stanavich, went undrafted in 2021 but really shot forward on the Cape, posting a 1.93 ERA and a 32/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings for Brewster. While Stanavich stands just 5'11", though, Fitzpatrick is a towering 6'7" and also nearly a full year younger. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets some ride from a lower arm slot, while his average curveball and changeup give another look. While he has shown fringe-average command in New Brunswick, everything played up on the Cape because he took a step forward in his ability to control the strike zone and dictate at bats. Throw in that he went at least three innings in all but one appearance, and you have a kid with a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter. We'll see if he and/or Stanavich can crack the Rutgers rotation this spring, though Fitzpatrick does seem like the better bet to start long term.
10. SS Branden Comia, Illinois.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'10", 190 lbs. Born 4/27/2000. Hometown: Orland Park, IL.
2021: 3 HR, .323/.457/.445, 3 SB, 34/27 K/BB in 44 games.
Branden Comia was eligible in 2021, but will return arguably the Big Ten's most consistent bat to Urbana-Champaign and look to entrench himself as one of Illinois' all time great hitters. After a solid if unspectacular freshman campaign in 2019 (.255/.322/.370), he's been unstoppable at the plate over the past two seasons by hitting .347/.472/.505 with five home runs and a strong 46/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. Comia has an innate knack for hard contact from the right side, finding the barrel consistently against all levels of pitching and deploying a patient approach that ensures he's on base nearly half the time. Aside from his hit tool, however, the Chicago-area native is lacking a bit in other tools. He's managed some gap power at Illinois, but that power has not shown up with wood bats over two years in the Northwoods League (.200/.341/.270) or in the MLB Draft league this summer (.272/.384/.333). A bit undersized at 5'10", adding loft to his relatively flat swing is unlikely to pay huge dividends, but it could help him remain a viable extra base threat in pro ball. Defensively, Comia has a sure glove and should be able to handle shortstop as a utility infielder, though playing him there every day may be a bit of a stretch. The defensive skillset does portend itself well at multiple positions in that utility profile, as does his high contact, low power bat.
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