For my views on steroids, see my writing from a year ago. My views haven't changed for the most part, though with players like Alex Rodriguez to the ballot, some small updates should be in place. It needs to be looked at on a case by case basis, but for the most part, any player who tested positive but whose Hall-worthy production was likely not solely a product of PED's (i.e., the steroids did not push him over the hump) will have to wait a year before getting my vote in their second year of eligibility. For players on the borderline who may or may not have made it without PED's, they don't get in. Below are the players I would vote for and some notables that I would not vote for, with reasoning.
Begrudging but firm YES: OF Barry Bonds (1986-2007)
Regular season: 762 HR, .298/.444/.607, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR in 2986 games.
Postseason: 9 HR, .245/.433/.503, 9 SB, 141 wRC+ in 48 games.
I'll keep this brief because there isn't much mystery surrounding Barry Bonds' case. Ignoring the steroids, you could make a very good case that he is the single greatest player in the history of baseball. Not one of the best, but the single greatest. Take away all the steroids, which there is no doubt he used and abused, and he's still likely a 100 WAR player that would be in the Hall with over 90% of the vote. See last year's steroid primer for my thoughts on steroids and why I'm willing to let it slide and vote him in.
Begrudging but firm YES: RHP Roger Clemens (1984-2007)
Regular season: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB in 4916.2 innings.
Postseason: 12-8, 3.75 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 173/70 K/BB in 199 innings.
Pretty similar deal here to Bonds. He's not quite the greatest pitcher of all time, but he's in the inner circle of all time greats and won seven Cy Young's. Again, if he hadn't been juicing he still would be a pretty comfortable Hall of Famer, and it's just time to let him in.
Clear-cut YES: RHP Curt Schilling (1988-2007)
Regular season: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB in 3261 innings.
Postseason: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 120/25 K/BB in 133.1 innings.
Let's get this one out of the way. Yeah, he's an asshole, and it's not just because he's politically conservative or an outspoken Trump supporter. The way he talks about people, the things he says, they're just childish and hurtful no matter where you fall on the political spectrum. That said, if he gets elected, I guarantee he won't be the worst person to be enshrined in Cooperstown by a good margin (Cap Anson played a major role in segregating baseball, an offense I actually believe to be grounds for removal from the Hall). In fact, he's not even the worst human being on this ballot because Omar Vizquel exists. In the context of my hypothetical Hall of Fame vote, I really, really don't care if he wants to be a jackass on his own time, because I'm concerned about what he did between the lines. Voting for him is not an endorsement of his opinions and any reasonable person knows that. Anyways, Schilling was part of an elite group of pitchers in the Steroid Era that really stood out at a time when offense was at an all time high, and his sustained peak from 1996-2004 (3.23 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 2127/397 K/BB in 2007.2 IP) was as impressive a statement as any player on this ballot not named Bonds, Clemens, or Rodriguez. He reached 300 strikeouts three times and nearly did so a fourth, threw over 225 innings seven times, posted teight qualified seasons with an ERA of 3.26 or lower, and was an impact piece on pitching staffs for nearly twenty years. He struck out 23.4% of his opponents for his career and walked just 5.3%. Then we take his postseason performance into consideration, in which he pitched to a 2.23 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 133.1 innings against baseball's best lineups when it mattered most, and this is a pretty clear Hall of Fame resume to me.
Clear-cut YES: LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Regular season: 2.31 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 innings.
Postseason: 10.03 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 1.97 WHIP, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 innings.
Next up we have the greatest left handed reliever of all time, and it's not even close. There aren't many cumulative stats available for relievers but he leads all lefties in strikeouts (1196 to 1169 over Jesse Orosco), fWAR, (24.0 to 20.3 over Aroldis Chapman), RE24 (198.2 to 154.5 over Orosco) and WPA (28.4 to 21.0 over Chapman), four stats I think are pretty telling. Lefty relievers are an extremely important part of the game to the point where every team has at least one, so should the clear cut greatest not be in the Hall of Fame? Even if you find handedness arbitrary, he stacks up extremely well to every true reliever currently enshrined except for Mariano Rivera. Trevor Hoffman, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, I'd argue that Wagner was as good or better than all of them. When you look at that group of six of the greatest non-Rivera relievers of all time, he may be second to last in fWAR because he's a bit behind in innings, but he's first in ERA, FIP, WHIP, RE24, strikeout rate, and a host of other things. 11.2 bad postseason innings aside, Billy Wagner is a clear-cut Hall of Famer who should have been voted in years ago.
Pretty easy YES: OF Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Regular season: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games.
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 5 SB, 108 wRC+ in 76 games.
This is another one that I don't have to think too hard about. Yeah, the end of his career was pretty abysmal, as he hit just .214/.314/.420 (a 93 wRC+) and put up just 6.0 fWAR in 589 games from 2007-2012. And admittedly, that's no small piece either, as he was still 29 years old on Opening Day in 2007. But what Jones did in the prime of his career, from 1998-2006, warrants a Hall of Fame selection on its own. Aside from being quite possibly the greatest defensive outfielder of all time, he hit .270/.347/.513 (119 wRC+) with 319 home runs and 110 stolen bases, putting up the second-most fWAR in all of baseball behind only Barry Bonds and ahead of third place Bobby Abreu by a long shot. So we can compare this profile a bit to Omar Vizquel, who had much more longevity, and I still think Jones comes out way ahead. Vizquel was one of the greatest defensive shortstops ever (and therefore one of the greatest defenders ever), but his career 83 wRC+ meant he was fully 17% below league average in offensive production, or in other words, a liability. Jones, meanwhile, had a 111 career wRC+ that made him 11% above league average, or in other words, a very solid contributor if not a slugger. Attach that bat to arguably the greatest defensive outfielder ever and you have a pretty easy Hall of Fame profile.
Borderline, but YES: 3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
Regular season: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games.
Postseason: 5 HR, .220/.302/.376, 0 SB, 78 wRC+ in 39 games.
Bonds and Clemens are their own cases, and I think Curt Schilling and Billy Wagner are pretty black and white Hall of Famers to me. Andruw Jones is not quite black and white but I'm still very comfortable with that yes. Scott Rolen is where it starts to get a little more gray, though I do fall on the side of a yes vote here. You could argue that when watching him play throughout the late 90's and 00's, nobody sat back and thought "man, we're watching a Hall of Famer!" Maybe in 2004, when he hit .314/.409/.598 with 34 home runs and his typical elite defense, but otherwise, he looked on the surface like a great candidate for the Hall of Very Good. But when you pull the camera back, I think you get a much, much better case than you might think. He was always a high level defender, and from 1997-2004, he posted a wRC+ of 121 or better every year, meaning even at his worst he was still a 21% better hitter than league average over a span of eight years. That exceptional consistency with the bat means that he was always a true impact piece in the lineup every day for the better part of a decade, and he popped for 126 again in 2006 and 2010. He finished with 300+ home runs, 500+ doubles, and 100+ stolen bases if you like counting stats, and I really struggle to see a better combination of offense and defense on this ballot among non-PED players. I won't die on the hill that Scott Rolen is a Hall of Famer like I will for the players above him here, but that's a damn good case if you ask me and it's enough for my vote.
Borderline, but YES: OF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009)
Regular season: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games.
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games.
Gary Sheffield is another one in the gray area where I won't die on this hill, but he gets my vote. He would seem to fit the "borderline case that gets flipped to 'no' by PED's," but it's a little murkier than that. I've read into the PED allegations against him and while I'm no investigative journalist, I'm not sold he did them. Maybe he did, and honestly it's probably better than 50%, but I just don't see enough evidence to "convict" him and leave him off my ballot. So because of that, I'm not going to factor PED's into my vote and instead I'll just go off the numbers, which lean "yes" for me. 500+ home runs, nearly 500 doubles, 250+ stolen bases, and reasonably close to 3000 hits means he has the counting stats. He finished pretty darn close to a career .300/.400/.500 line despite a very long, 22 year career even by Hall of Fame standards. He had four different seasons where he was worth 6.5 or more fWAR despite playing crappy defense, and in those seasons he posted incredible wRC+'s of 172, 185, 173, and 163, so he certainly looked like a Hall of Famer for sustained periods throughout his career, unlike Scott Rolen above him. Between the career achievement and the absolute battering ram he proved to be at his best, I'm willing to ignore the poor defense and say that one of the game's better hitters of all time deserves enshrinement.
Borderline, but YES: DH David Ortiz (1997-2016)
Regular season: 541 HR, .286/.380/.552, 17 SB, 140 wRC+, 51.0 fWAR in 2408 games.
Postseason: 17 HR, .289/.404/.543, 0 SB, 144 wRC+ in 85 games.
David Ortiz is in the same boat as Gary Sheffield for me when it comes to PED's. He's accused and he probably took them, but again, there's not nearly enough evidence to say for sure and I'm not going to hold him out of the Hall based on that. Now interestingly, fWAR does not love his career achievement and puts him more in the realm of Jimmy Rollins (49.4) and Mark Teixeira (44.8) than up with Rolen (69.9), Jones (67.0), and Sheffield (62.1). And I can see where that comes from, because he didn't play defense and even in terms of his hitting he was often banged up, only once playing more than 151 games in a season and sitting out more than twenty games in more than half the seasons he played. Still, there's no denying that Big Papi was a special player and a special hitter. Despite being banged up, he was extremely consistent with the bat when he was on the field and put up fifteen consecutive seasons of twenty or more home runs from 2002-2016, all the while maintaining on-base percentages near or above .400. Only once in his twenty year career, during a ten game cup of coffee with the Twins in 1999, was he less than a league average hitter. From 2003-2016, he was at least 34% better in twelve of fourteen seasons. Add in his playoff resume, which includes helping break the curse in 2004 (he hit .400/.515/.764! in that postseason) and an overall line every bit as good as his regular season numbers, and I think he gets pushed over the hump. Public image is probably the last thing I look at but it certainly doesn't hurt that he was one of the most beloved players in Red Sox history and was not only the face of the franchise, but is probably the face of the DH position for all time.
Borderline, but YES: OF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011)
Regular season: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games.
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games.
Manny Ramirez is a tough one. Unlike Gary Sheffield and David Ortiz, it's pretty clear-cut that he used PED's, so that would mean he should only go into the Hall of Fame if he has a pretty clear-cut case on the numbers alone. Is his case clear-cut? If it's not, I think it's pretty close to clear, and at the very least he's probably better than "borderline," which would automatically disqualify him in my book given the PED's. There's no way to quantify what effect the PED's had on his numbers, and I'm really 50-50 but I feel fairly comfortable saying he would have been a Hall of Famer anyways. There are only five players in history that can match or better all three legs of Manny's slash line: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Hank Greenberg. Throw in the home run total and it's just Ruth. He's a top-25 hitter of all time by wRC+ despite playing in an offensively-charged environment, posting a mark of 140 or better fifteen times in sixteen years. So for a decade and a half, he was an elite hitter at almost all times. Throw in a very solid postseason track record, and I think I have just enough to get over his poor defense and PED suspension.
Literally 51-49 YES: OF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Regular season: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games.
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 20 games.
I don't think a case can get any more borderline than Bobby Abreu. Like Scott Rolen, he never looked like a Hall of Famer while he was playing, but again, pulling the camera back a bit helps his case. From 1998-2006, his high on-base percentages and above average power meant he never posted less than a 128 wRC+, and he actually had seven consecutive seasons with more than five fWAR. Unlike Rolen, he doesn't have a standout glove to back up those offensive numbers, but he was a very strong baserunner that stole 400 bases for his career and impacted the game with his acumen. Really, Abreu made up for never having a true Hall of Fame-caliber season (save for maybe 1999 or 2000 if you're feeling generous) by just consistently impacting the game in a lot of ways, at least offensively. I would feel more comfortable with Abreu here if he had an average glove instead of a mediocre one, but he was enough of a hitter and a baserunner to give himself a very good shot. If I'm going to penalize borderline HOF guys like Sammy Sosa for using PED's, then I should give a second look to guys who didn't, and I think Abreu's warrants a yes vote.
Eventually, but for now NO: SS Alex Rodriguez (1994-2016)
Regular season: 696 HR, .295/.380/.550, 329 SB, 141 wRC+, 113.7 fWAR in 2784 games.
Postseason: 13 HR, .259/.365/.457, 8 SB, 116 wRC+ in 76 games.
Alex Rodriguez is a Hall of Famer, and one day (possibly even next year) I will give him my hypothetical vote. For most of the reasons outlined in my steroid primer from last year, I think he belongs there despite being a convicted cheater. But that doesn't mean I have to ignore the cheating or pretend it doesn't matter, so I feel comfortable making him wait a year or two for my support. That said, the guy is one of the greatest shortstops/third basemen of all time, put up over 100 career WAR, hit 30+ home runs in thirteen consecutive seasons, and had five different seasons with at least 9.0 fWAR. You can dislike the guy and recognize that cheating might have given him a little extra edge but still respect that he is an inner-circle Hall of Famer.
Very close, but NO: 1B Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Regular season: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games.
Todd Helton is probably the first player off my ballot, and what he did from 1999-2005 really is amazing – he hit .341/.442/.621 over 1092 games and seven seasons. If we're talking about the Hall of Fame for a first baseman playing all of his home games at Coors Field, the bar is going to be extremely high, and that certainly meets and exceeds that bar. But the decline was very sharp: from 2006 (his age-33 season) onwards to the end of his career, he hit just .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs in eight years. I'm not going to knock an on-base percentage near .400 in his post-prime years, but again, he's a first baseman playing at Coors. Andruw Jones had a similar career arc and in his paragraph I argued that his early-career success was enough to push him into the Hall, but Jones' peak lasted nine years while Helton's lasted seven, which for me is just enough of a difference to let Jones in but not Helton. Seven years of elite hitting is certainly enough to get the conversation going, but when he lacks much else on his resume – whether that's with the glove or the fact that he never did anything in the postseason (not his fault but also doesn't help his case) – he falls just short in my opinion.
Regular season: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 innings.
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 innings.
The phrase "Hall of Very Good" gets thrown around often, and I think Andy Pettitte can be a prime example of what that looks like. The closer you look at his resume, the better it looks, with a very long career that provided a tremendous amount of value to the Yankees and the Astros. He was a true workhorse that topped 200 innings ten different times and 185 innings thirteen different times, and for the most part he kept his ERA in the 3.50 to 4.30 range most years despite pitching in hitter-friendly parks in the Steroid Era. His postseason resume is impressive, too, as his numbers did not dip at all and he earned the 2001 ALCS MVP Award. Though he did allow a lot of baserunners, his peripherals back up his strong performance. Fans can underestimate the value of a strong #2 or #3 starter and Pettitte provided that for nearly two decades, even popping for ace-like seasons in 1997 and 2005. However, aside from those couple of strong years, I don't know how often teams would see he was pitching tomorrow and think "uh oh, we got Pettitte next." Of course nobody looked forward to facing him, but I think his value was much more of a high-level supporting role to better teammates than as a true star that deserves enshrinement among the game's all time greats.
Close, but NO: OF Sammy Sosa (1989-2007)
Regular season: 609 HR, .273/.344/.534, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR in 2354 games.
Postseason: 2 HR, .245/.403/.415, 1 SB, 110 wRC+ in 15 games.
Sammy Sosa is the only player this year to be excluded by my PED rule, being that juicers with borderline cases don't get in. Had he been clean, I think I would put Sosa in fairly easily, but it still wouldn't be a clear-cut case given his low on-base percentages and the fact that his defense deteriorated pretty rapidly when his power began to take off. Ten consecutive seasons of 35+ home runs and four straight with 50+ is as impressive a power statement as anybody on this ballot not named Bonds, but it's a very one-dimensional case. A career walk rate under 10% and low batting averages kept his career OBP below .350, and only twice in his career did he crack .400. A career 124 wRC+ puts him in the company of Bobby Abreu (129), Jeff Kent (123), and Scott Rolen (122), with Kent falling short on my ballot despite being clean, Abreu very very barely making it, and Rolen bringing a very strong glove.
Closer than I thought, but NO: RHP Joe Nathan (1999-2016)
Regular season: 2.87 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 976/344 K/BB in 923.1 innings.
Postseason: 8.10 ERA, 5.68 FIP, 2.20 WHIP, 12/8 K/BB in 10 innings.
I originally didn't put much thought into Joe Nathan, but when I went back and looked a little closer, it's a pretty strong case. For me, relievers have the highest bar to clear, but for a while throughout Nathan's career, he was clearing that bar. From 2003-2009, he put up a 2.04 ERA, a 2.56 FIP, and a 0.95 WHIP in nearly 500 innings of work, striking out over 30% of his opponents along the way. That compares nicely to other primes I've highlighted above, such as with Curt Schilling (1996-2004), Andruw Jones (1998-2006), and Todd Helton (1999-2005), though you'll notice Schilling and Jones (who got my vote) were at the top of their game for nine years while Helton and Nathan (who did not) saw their primes last seven years. It's really unfortunate that 2010 Tommy John surgery brought his prime to a close, because after ramping back up in 2011 he was close to his old self with the Rangers in 2012 and 2013, and that puts him back in the conversation for me. He did, as it turns out, finish fifth all time among relievers in RE24 behind only Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Goose Gossage, and Trevor Hoffman, all of whom are in the Hall of Fame, as is the next man behind him (Lee Smith). I may consider him on future ballots, but for now the fact that he really didn't catch his stride as a major league pitcher until he was 28 really hurts him in that by the time he came down from his peak, he didn't have much opportunity to pad the stats, as well as his lack of postseason success (8.10 ERA in ten innings), means he just misses. For now he's the closer on the Hall of Very Good team.
Close, but NO: 2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008)
Regular season: 377 HR, .290/.356/.500, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR in 2298 games.
Postseason: 9 HR, .276/.340/.500, 1 SB, 119 wRC+ in 49 games.
If Andy Pettitte is the starting pitcher and Joe Nathan is the closer for the Hall of Very Good team, Jeff Kent can be the second baseman. With eight consecutive seasons of 20+ home runs and 30+ doubles, ten consecutive seasons with a wRC+ of 120 or higher (sixteen straight at at least league average), and a true Hall of Fame-caliber season in 2000 (33 HR, .334/.424/.596, 159 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR), it's a very good resume. He hit well in the postseason, too, and stuck around long enough to pick up nearly 2500 hits, nearly 400 home runs, and well over 500 doubles. But all in all, it feels just a little bit light to me. Great credentials, a case certainly worth listening to, but I feel much better discussing him among the great second basemen of the era than among the great second basemen of all time.
Interesting, but NO: LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015)
Regular season: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 1870 K/BB in 3283.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 innings.
I'm not mistaking Mark Buehrle for a Hall of Famer for many of the same reasons as Andy Pettitte, but it's still a fun case to look at. He topped 200 innings in fourteen, nearly fifteen consecutive seasons, and only once did his ERA rise above 4.28 or his FIP above 4.46. A model of consistency, he was also an excellent defender and worked at a quick pace, something pitchers today can certainly learn from. The fact that he had no true Hall of Fame-caliber seasons (maybe 2005 if you're feeling generous) and pitched the majority of his career in a weaker AL Central hurts his case, and in the end, he probably belongs right next to Pettitte in the Hall of Very Good rotation.
Interesting, but NO: RHP Tim Hudson (1999-2015)
Regular season: 222-133, 3.49 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 2080/917 K/BB in 3126.2 innings.
Postseason: 1-4, 3.69 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 53/22 K/BB in 75.2 innings.
Here's another starter for the Hall of Very Good. Tim Hudson experienced more ups and downs in his career than the ultra-consistent Mark Buehrle, but the ups did look more HOF-worthy than Buehrle ever did. He had a three year stretch from 2001-2003 in which he put up a 3.02 ERA over an MLB-leading 713.1 innings and later popped for a couple more big seasons in 2007 and 2010, but ultimately he never quite had the sustained dominance necessary for a pitcher to reach the Hall of Fame in my book.
Pretty clear NO: SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Regular season: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games.
Recent allegations surfacing about Omar Vizquel means he gets to take the crown from Curt Schilling as the worst human being on the ballot this year. Personally, I don't have to worry about them much because he wasn't a Hall of Famer in my book anyways. I mentioned in Andruw Jones' paragraph that he complemented an elite glove with a strong bat (111 wRC+), whereas Vizquel's elite glove came with a liability of a bat (83 wRC+). In an era where guys were bashing home runs over the fence left and right, Vizquel was a contact hitter that still only posted a .336 on-base percentage for his career and never even reached .400. He played 24 seasons across four different decades but only twice was he an above average hitter by wRC+ (115 in 1999 and 102 in 2002). The glove may have been great, but he was a black hole in lineups that needed to produce a lot of runs to be competitive. We can point to Ozzie Smith as a comparison but Ozzie had a career wRC+ of 90 (seven points better than Vizquel) and had seven above average seasons to Vizquel's two.
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