Sunday, November 18, 2018

Reviewing the Los Angeles Angels Farm System

Fortunately, the Angels' farm system is in a much better place than it was just a few years ago, when it was the worst in baseball. Now, headliner Jo Adell has given it a facelift and there are some nice names behind him, but it still lacks much impact talent once you get past the first few names on the list. It's an offense-heavy list with a lot of high-upside bats scattered throughout, with the few notable arms in the system mostly concentrated in the upper-minors.

Affiliates: AAA Salt Lake City Bees, AA Mobile BayBears, High A Inland Empire 66ers, Class A Burlington Bees, Rookie level Orem Owlz, complex level AZL and DSL Angels

The Headliner: OF Jo Adell
Drafted in the first round (tenth overall) out of a Louisville-area high school in 2017, 19 year old Jo Adell has already made a name for himself on a national scale and is arguably one of the top ten prospects in baseball after a huge 2018. Over 99 games, he slashed .290/.355/.543 with 20 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 111/32 strikeout to walk ratio across three levels, reaching all the way up to AA Mobile as a teenager. He shows power, speed, the ability to get on base, and good defense in the outfield, so the only knock on his game is some swing and miss. Otherwise, he looks like a future All Star that could be an annual 30 homer, 20 stolen base threat, and it doesn't take a huge stretch of the imagination to imagine him holding up an AL MVP Award. If the Angels can figure out a way to keep Mike Trout, a core of Trout, Adell, and Shohei Ohtani will be fun to watch.

Other High-Upside Hitters: OF Brandon Marsh, 2B Jahmai Jones, OF D'Shawn Knowles, SS Kevin Maitan, OF Jordyn Adams, and SS Nonie Williams
Adell isn't the only high-upside hitter in this system, though many of the others have been disappointing and look farther from reaching their lofty ceilings than originally thought. We'll start with 20 year old Brandon Marsh, who hasn't been a total disappointment. The outfielder slashed .295/.390/.470 in 34 games at Class A Burlington, but put up a more pedestrian .256/.348/.385 line in 93 games at hitter-friendly High A Inland Empire, combining for ten home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 158/73 strikeout to walk ratio. Marsh is still young and it's nice to see the power/speed/patience combination as a hitter, but the strikeouts are a little high and we're still waiting on a breakout. If anything, I do think the power will come along, though I'm not sold on the contact. 21 year old Jahmai Jones was cruising through the low to mid minors until his bat regressed in 2018, where he slashed .239/.337/.380 with ten home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 114/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between Inland Empire and AA Mobile. If you can get past the handedness, his offensive profile is not too dissimilar to Marsh's, as both show moderate power, good speed, and patience at the plate while struggling a bit with the strikeout. I think Marsh has a more power potential and therefore more breakout potential while Jones is a little faster and has a better track record, and on defense Jones plays second base. Overall, he looks like a utility infielder at this point but could surprise if he rights the ship in AA next year. 18 year old Kevin Maitan has been a big disappointment so far, and that's difficult to do at that age. Regarded as potentially the next Chipper Jones when he signed for over $4 million with the Braves in 2016, he slashed .248/.306/.397 with eight home runs and a 66/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at rookie level Orem last year, showing the prodigious raw power that originally got him that big signing bonus but struggling to make contact and get to his power. He has plenty of time to right the ship and still has some of the best upside in the system, but he's going to take longer to develop and has a lower chance of reaching that ceiling than originally expected. 19 year old Jordyn Adams was a first rounder (17th overall) out of high school in the Raleigh area in 2018, and he hit .267/.361/.381 with no homers but five stolen bases in 29 games between complex ball and Orem this year. He's raw, with his best attribute being his blinding speed (he could have been a wide receiver at UNC), but he has the chance to grow under pro coaching and become a leadoff man with some pop. However, he has a long way to get there and first has to prove he can make contact against higher level pitching. Turning the tide a little bit, 17 year old D'Shawn Knowles has actually been a pleasant surprise so far, slashing .311/.391/.464 with five home runs and nine stolen bases across 58 games between complex ball and Orem in 2018, showing an advanced bat for someone so young and holding up well in his first taste of pro pitching. Knowles is known more as a strong defensive outfielder with a raw bat, but it might not be as raw as expected and he has a chance to be one of the better prospects in this system come next season. Watch this name. Lastly, 20 year old Nonie Williams has been a huge disappointment since being drafted in the third round (96th overall) out of the Kansas City area in 2016. Through three seasons, he still has not gotten above Orem and has slashed .219/.279/.301 with three home runs and 20 stolen bases over 121 games, his 143/36 strikeout to walk ratio holding him down. The Angels knew he was raw when they drafted him, but he's going to have to right the ship soon if he wants to become the all-around player the Angels thought they drafted.

High Floor Hitters: 1B Matt Thaiss, SS Luis Rengifo, OF Michael Hermosillo, OF Brennan Lund, SS Leonardo Rivas, SS Jeremiah Jackson, and SS Livan Soto
The players on this list don't necessarily have star upside, but they have less bust risk than on the previous list. Some have a chance to become starters, but ultimately they're likely to bench assets. Most of these guys are naturally closer to the majors but some are a little farther down. 23 year old Matt Thaiss has the most name recognition as a first round pick (16th overall) out of UVA in 2016, showing some power and plate discipline but not doing what he needs to do to stand out as a first base only prospect. In 2018, he slashed .280/.335/.467 with 16 home runs and a 103/44 strikeout to walk ratio at AA Mobile and AAA Salt Lake City, his walk rate dropping from 2017 but otherwise not losing any production. The Angels want to project him as Albert Pujols' replacement at first base, but I think he'll end up somewhere around a league average hitter, which is okay for most positions but not great for a first baseman. 21 year old Luis Rengifo is also knocking on the door as a potential utility player, having slashed .299/.399/.452 with seven home runs, 41 stolen bases, and a very nice 75/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between High A Inland Empire, Mobile, and Salt Lake City. The bat is just a little light, but the rest of his game is coming along nicely with his plate discipline, speed, and defense all looking above average. Second base might be his best bet to start, but I think he will at least be a useful utility man. 23 year old outfielders Michael Hermosillo and Brennon Lund are looking to capture fourth outfield spots, with the former a little closer than the latter. Hermosillo slashed .267/.357/.480 with 12 home runs and ten stolen bases in 68 games at Salt Lake City, then .211/.274/.333 in 31 MLB games. He strikes out a bit too much but he has some speed and some pop. Lund spent the year at Mobile, slashing .264/.343/.404 with eight home runs and 21 stolen bases across 100 games, showing a similar profile to Hermosillo. Both show some power, speed, and patience, though both also tend to swing and miss and don't have the power to make up for that. Lastly, we have three low-level shortstop prospects in 21 year old Leonardo Rivas and 18 year olds Jeremiah Jackson and Livan Soto. As you would expect, Rivas is the most advanced, having slashed .234/.354/.333 with five homers, 16 stolen bases, and an interesting 140/84 strikeout to walk ratio, mostly at Class A Burlington. The bat is very light and he will likely never be a big league starter, but he walks so much that we just can't ignore him for now. Jackson was just taken in the second round (57th overall) out of high school in Mobile, and he slashed .254/.314/.491 with seven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 59/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games between complex ball and rookie level Orem. He has the highest upside of this trio and is the most likely to become a starter, potentially replacing Andrelton Simmons down the road, but he has a long way to go and he profiles more as a solid utility man than as a starter. He does have some power and plate discipline but may have to move off shortstop and instead compete at third base. Lastly, Soto's profile resembles Rivas' more than it does Jackson's, as he slashed .291/.385/.349 with no home runs, nine stolen bases, and an even 24/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. Like Rivas, he has a light bat with no power but also an excellent eye at the plate. He also plays better defense than Rivas and is younger, and I'd argue he has a higher ceiling, but he'll have to show at least some sock in the bat to move up.

Notable PitchersGriffin CanningJose SuarezPatrick SandovalJose SorianoStiward Aquino, and Chris Rodriguez
The Angels are very shallow in pitching prospects, though they do have three that stand out as potential impact arms and three more that are a long way off and could develop into such. These six are pretty good prospects in their own right, but there's a drop-off afterwards and there aren't too many other candidates to join this list. 22 year old Griffin Canning looks to have the best combination of floor and ceiling at this point, coming off a year where he posted a 3.65 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 125/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, jumping all the way from High A Inland Empire to AAA Salt Lake City. His numbers dipped progressively over each level, as is natural, and he'll probably need more time at AAA next season, but he has moved through the minor leagues very quickly for a 2017 draftee and could be a mid rotation starter by mid-season. The ceiling isn't very high with him, but he's not just your run of the mill, back-end starter type. 20 year old Jose Suarez doesn't get as much attention as perhaps he should, reaching AAA at a very young age and holding his own there. Like Canning, he pitched at Inland Empire, AA Mobile, and Salt Lake City in 2018 and his numbers progressively dipped, but he's almost two years younger and posted a 3.92 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 142/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings. He's just 5'10" and throws in the low 90's, but the lefty is very advanced for his age and looks like a safe bet to be a #4ish starter, someone who can get outs and throw strikes consistently. He won't be an ace, but he should be a productive, long-term starting option. 22 year old Patrick Sandoval came over in the Martin Maldonado trade, and he had a huge breakout year in 2018. The 6'3" lefty went 11-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 145/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.1 innings despite pitching for four different minor league teams across three levels from Class A up to AA. Like Suarez, he doesn't throw too hard, but he commands his pitches very well and mixes up his deep arsenal well enough to miss a lot of bats and induce a lot of weak contact. He probably has a higher ceiling than both Canning and Suarez, and though he doesn't quite have the same floor, he could join them to make a very solid back three of the rotation behind whoever ends up at the front. 20 year olds Jose Soriano and Chris Rodriguez as well as 19 year old Stiward Aquino haven't done much yet, but they have breakout potential in a system that lacks many pitching options. Soriano is the most advanced, having put up a 4.47 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 42/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.1 innings at Class A Burlington, showing the building blocks for success though he has not put it together yet. He throws hard, up to 97 at times, and his skinny 6'3" frame projects more velocity, but he struggles with command and has not yet refined his secondary pitches. Aquino put up a 3.99 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio across 29.1 innings in complex ball, obviously a long way off but showing perhaps the best ceiling in the organization. He's a 6'6" righty with a mid 90's fastball and a curveball that's coming along well, so he just needs to keep on the development arc he's currently on. He might never get above A ball, but keep an eye on him. Lastly, Rodriguez missed the season with injuries but shows a good combination of stuff and command, and he could develop into a Griffin Canning type down the road if he can get healthy and get consistent. Obviously, he's a long way off as well.

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