The Diamondbacks' farm system is vastly improved from where it was a few years ago, but it's still not deep. Headlined by the live armed Jon Duplantier, this system is built around a strong group of hitters that played at High A Visalia in 2018, though after a solid top ten or so the system drops off and is mostly comprised of fringe talent. They have placed an emphasis on bats in the draft recently, and that has replenished the lower end of the system. In terms of pitching, most of the talent is closer to the major leagues and aside from Jon Duplantier, there are no true high-ceiling pitching prospects.
Affiliates: AAA Reno Aces, AA Jackson Generals, High A Visalia Rawhide, Class A Kane County Cougars, Short Season Hillsboro Hops, Rookie level Missoula Osprey, complex level AZL and DSL Diamondbacks
The Headliner: RHP Jon Duplantier
24 year old Jon Duplantier was a third round pick (89th overall) out of Rice in 2016, and though he had shoulder concerns in college, he has been mostly healthy in the minors. The result so far is a 17-4 record, a 1.79 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 245/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 211 innings since he was drafted, and in 2018 he was 5-1 with a 2.55 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings, mostly at AA Jackson. He has shown the ability to shut down AA hitting with great stuff and good enough command to make it all work, and really his only question is health. Though he managed 136 innings in 2017, he missed some more time in 2018 and was shut down after 74 innings and he might end up as a right handed James Paxton type who struggles to stay on the mound. When healthy though, he looks like a future #2 starter who could be up in the majors by late 2019.
Visalia Bats: 2B Jazz Chisholm, 1B Pavin Smith, C Daulton Varsho, 3B Drew Ellis, and OF Marcus Wilson
It just so happened to work out that most of the top impact bats in the Arizona system all spent the bulk of their 2018 season at High A Visalia, which must have made for a fun lineup to watch out in California. Keep in mind that Visalia is a hitter-friendly venue when reading statistics in this section. 20 year old Jazz Chisholm, a Bahamas native, has the highest ceiling in this group. Chisholm spent 76 games down at Class A Kane County before being called up to Visalia for 36 games, combining for 25 home runs, a .272/.329/.513 slash line, 17 stolen bases, and a 149/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games. He's an explosive player with speed and power from a 5'11" frame, but he has to improve his plate discipline. That isn't a huge issue due to his age, so if he can shore up that strike zone a little bit, he could be a Rougned Odor-type second baseman in the majors. 22 year old Pavin Smith was probably the most notable hitter to appear for the Rawhide, though his season was somewhat disappointing as he finished with eleven home runs, a .255/.343/.392 line, and a 65/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games, all at Visalia. The seventh overall pick out of the University of Virginia in 2017, Smith showed the excellent plate discipline he was known for in college, but the power he was projected to have has not yet materialized. At 6'2" with long arms, evaluators still think there is power to tap into, but he risks becoming just a bench bat if he doesn't get to it, even with his excellent plate discipline. He looked like he could be a Joey Votto out of college, but now it looks more like Jake Bauers. 22 year old Daulton Varsho was drafted 61 picks after Smith, 68th overall, in 2017 out of college in Wisconsin. Over 83 games between Visalia and some rehab work in complex ball, Varsho slashed .294/.367/.475 with 12 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 72/30 strikeout to walk ratio. He has power and speed, and with the ability to catch, he might be the most interesting prospect in the system. Catching isn't a given for Varsho, as his arm is mediocre, but if he can stick behind the plate he could be a J.T. Realmuto-type catcher with all around abilities as a hitter. Keep an eye on him. 22 year old Drew Ellis, yet another 2017 draft pick out of college, was a second rounder (44th overall) out of Louisville who has been more of a Smith-like disappointment than a Varsho-like surprise. This year, Ellis slashed .246/.331/.429 with 15 home runs and a 98/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Visalia, putting up some solid numbers on the surface that look a little less impressive considering the hitter-friendly context of the California League. I liked Ellis on draft day (as I did with Varsho) because of his high-torque swing where he keeps his hands close to his body, kind of like Mike Trout, but he just didn't drive the ball enough in 2018 to set himself apart. I still like him and he could be a strong third baseman with power and on-base ability, but like Smith, he has to start hitting with more authority. Yet another 22 year old, outfielder Marcus Wilson, spent the year at Visalia and slashed .235/.309/.369 with ten home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 141/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games. He was much better at Class A Kane County in 2017 (.295/.383/.446, 9 HR, 15 SB), so his lack of offensive sock this year was a disappointment. His best tool is his speed, but with an average bat, he probably ends up a fourth outfielder at the major league level.
Other Bats: 2B Domingo Leyba, 1B Kevin Cron, OF Jake McCarthy, OF Alek Thomas, OF Kristian Robinson, C Andy Yerzy, SS Blaze Alexander, and SS Geraldo Perdomo
While the bulk of Arizona's relevant bats were down at High A, they had quite a few that were a little farther back and two that were just ahead. 23 year old Domingo Leyba and 25 year old Kevin Cron are the two most advanced bats in the Diamondbacks' system, though they're two very different prospects. Leyba played 2018 at AA Jacksonville and slashed .269/.344/.381 with five home runs and a 46/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 games, showing good plate discipline and bat to ball skills but not showing much power. With some respectable defense, he looks like he could be a serviceable utility man who can get on base at a reasonable rate. Cron, meanwhile, is a big power hitter out of TCU who slashed .309/.368/.554 with 22 home runs and a 100/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games at AAA Reno, though it's important to keep in mind that Reno is a hitter-friendly environment. The 6'5", 245 pound first baseman is blocked by Paul Goldschmidt in Arizona, but with 112 home runs over five minor league seasons, he could be a valuable pinch-hitter in the near term. However, in order for him to start in the majors, he'll need to walk more so that he is not just a one-dimensional player. 21 year old Jake McCarthy, the D-Backs' competitive balance pick (39th overall) out of the University of Virginia in 2018, was a nice get and I think he could out-play his draft position. McCarthy slashed .288/.375/.443 with three home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 41/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, mostly with Short Season Hillsboro, after signing. He's really a complete player with speed, defense, on-base ability, and some power, and I think he'll develop more power in the minors. He hasn't yet played in full season ball, but he could move quickly through the minors and while he looks more like a good fourth outfielder at this point, I think he has a good shot to be a starting center fielder and valuable leadoff man. Meanwhile, 18 year old Alek Thomas was taken 24 picks later at 63rd overall out of high school in Chicago, and he adjusted quickly to pro ball by slashing .333/.395/.463 with two home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games evenly split between complex ball and rookie level Missoula. He was known pre-draft as an advanced hitter for his age and it certainly showed, though I question his ceiling and see him more as a fourth outfielder than as a starter. He has great plate discipline, speed, and defense, but he doesn't hit for much power and his value will be tied to his on-base percentage if he can't add more. If he can maintain those high on-base percentages, though, he could be a leadoff hitter down the road. His teammate for much of the season, 17 year old Kristian Robinson, is another Bahamian who got off to a hot start for his pro career by slashing .279/.363/.428 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 67/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games between complex ball and Missoula. He's extremely young, turning 18 in December, and while he's a long, long way off, he could end up with a similar offensive toolset to Jazz Chisholm. Players like Robinson flame out all the time, but they're also the type that can yield tons of value down the road if they don't flame out. 20 year old catcher Andy Yerzy has been brought along slowly, hitting well along the way and slashing .297/.382/.452 with eight home runs and a 67/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at Hillsboro. The bat is potent, especially for a catcher, but he has to continue to work on his defense if he wants to stay behind the plate. He's a good enough hitter that he could still be valuable as a first baseman or an outfielder, but he could be a starting catcher if he can improve his defense. Obviously, we'll still need to see the bat at higher levels before considering him a true impact prospect. 19 year olds Blaze Alexander and Geraldo Perdomo are a couple of young shortstop prospects who will be competing as they move up through the minors. Alexander got off to a hot start to his pro career in 2018, slashing .329/.417/.538 with five home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 52/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games between complex ball and Missoula, while Perdomo hit .322/.438/.460 with four home runs, 24 stolen bases, an a 44/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games between complex ball, Missoula, and Hillsboro. Both are good defenders, with Perdomo more likely to stick at short and Alexander more likely to move to third base, and while Perdomo also appears to have a little more sock in his bat, they're about even offensively and the transition to full season ball will be telling.
The Pitchers: Taylor Widener, Taylor Clarke, Emilio Vargas, Matt Tabor, Matt Mercer, Yoan Lopez, and Alex Young
The Diamondbacks aren't very deep with pitching after Jon Duplantier, so I decided to lump the rest of the pitchers into one section. Of the rest, 24 year old Taylor Widener is clearly the best, showing pretty decent command of mid-rotation stuff and using it to hold down minor league hitters very effectively to this point. In 2018, the 6' righty put up a 2.75 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 176/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.1 innings at AA Jackson, missing bats with his mid-90's heater and his sharp slider. Right now, he looks good enough to at least cut it as a back-end starter with the upside of a mid-rotation starter, and how effectively he can deploy his decent changeup will be an important factor in his ultimate performance. There's a good chance he makes it to the majors in 2019. His main competition among prospects, aside from Duplantier, will be another Taylor, 25 year old Taylor Clarke. Clarke is a veteran of the upper minors who posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 125/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 152 innings at AAA Reno in 2018, a hitter-friendly context. While his stuff is generally average, Clarke commands his pitches well and can get outs by hitting his spots consistently. He will be tested in the majors, but he could be a #4 or #5 starter in 2019. 22 year old Emilio Vargas is slightly behind the two of them, but the 6'3" righty should not be overlooked. Over 26 games (25 starts) at High A Visalia and Jackson in 2018, Vargas posted a 2.88 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 170/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings. His stuff ticked up this year and he started missing more bats while throwing more strikes, and the result was a dominant run through the hitter-friendly California League followed by a successful AA debut. He still looks like a back-end starter, but 2018 gives hope that he could be more. Farther down on the farm, a couple of Matts have some high upside. 20 year old Matt Tabor posted a 3.26 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 46/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Short season Hillsboro, mainly living off his mid 90's fastball and good control, but he's young enough to continue developing those offspeed pitches and could look like Taylor Widener in a couple of years. 22 year old Matt Mercer, meanwhile, was just drafted in the fifth round of the 2018 draft out of Oregon and posted a 3.10 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 38/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings, mostly as Tabor's teammate at Hillsboro. It's a small sample size, but Mercer's low walk rate was a very welcome site after be battled command troubles in college, but he'll still need to refine his secondary pitches if he doesn't want to end up in the bullpen. I get a good feeling that pro coaching could make him a useable back-end starter, but the bullpen is a real possibility and he could be very good back there. Lastly, the Diamondbacks have a pair of notable relief-only prospects in 25 year olds Yoan Lopez and Alex Young. Lopez has had a very roundabout career, originally signing for a huge $8 million bonus in 2015 but struggling as a starter and briefly stepping away from the game in late 2016. He returned as a reliever in 2017 and has been lights out ever since, posting a 2.92 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 87/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings with Jackson in 2018 before reaching the majors with success in a small sample size (3.00 ERA, 11/1 K/BB in 9 IP). He throws an MLB-ready fastball/slider combination, and while his control keeps him from being a closer, he could be a valuable reliever starting this season. Young has also spent his minor league career as a starter and there is still some chance he starts in the majors, but I see him more as a relief prospect after a mediocre 2018 (5.17 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 109/39 K/BB in 130.2 IP at Jackson and Reno). His stuff is fringy and could play up in the bullpen, and as a lefty he could be deployed strategically. Look for him as a potential long reliever.
No comments:
Post a Comment