Friday, November 2, 2018

Top Free Agents for 2018-2019: Infielders

First Basemen

1. Matt Adams (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 21 HR, .239/.309/.477, 0 SB, 107 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR in 121 games
This is a very shallow first base class, with really no true starters available. There are, however, quite a few platoon bats, with Matt Adams leading the way. Though 2014 was his only full season as a starter, he has been a very valuable power bat as a platoon or bench option since then. In 2017, he slashed .274/.319/.522 with 20 home runs in 131 games, including .295/.342/.554 against right handed pitchers. In 2018, a late season slump with the Cardinals brought him down to .239/.309/.477 with 21 home runs overall, including .242/.316/.494 against right handers, but he is still a very potent option at the plate against that right handed pitching. He doesn't provide much defensive value, but I did watch him make some nice plays at first base and in left field for the Nationals. Also, because he just turned 30 at the end of August, he's not old as far as free agents go. For his career, the Central Pennsylvania native has 96 home runs, a .266/.314/.470 slash line, and 5.4 fWAR over 707 games since 2012.

2. Steve Pearce (2019 Age: 36)
2018 Stats: 11 HR, .284/.378/.512, 0 SB, 140 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR in 76 games
It's hard to know what to make of Pearce. He has up years and down years completely unpredictably, with the case in point being his drop from a breakout .293/.373/.556 line in 2014 to .218/.289/.422 in 2015. Though he played in only 76 games, this past year was an up year, as he slashed .284/.378/.512 with 11 home runs, good for a 140 wRC+, and his playoff heroics led to the World Series MVP Award. Fangraphs does not like his defense, but he has shown a knack for stretching for bad throws this year, so that's up to the teams to decide, but they'll all be buying his bat. He routinely hits left handed pitching better than right handed pitching, though he's not a true platoon bat because he is still serviceable against right handers. This past year, the line was .304/.400/.559 against left handers and .265/.359/.469 against righties, and you can see that the former is an All Star line while the latter is still worth having in your lineup. Of course, with all of his inconsistency, we don't know which Steve Pearce will show up in 2019. On the down side, he turns 36 in April, so there are definitely younger options. For his career, the former South Carolina Gamecock has 90 home runs, a .257/.336/.447 slash line, and 8.7 fWAR over 737 games since 2007.

3. Lucas Duda (2019 Age: 33)
2018 Stats: 14 HR, .241/.313/.418, 1 SB, 97 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR in 107 games
Lucas Duda is not coming off a great season, as he lives by his bat and he slashed just .241/.313/.418 with 14 home runs in 107 games. That's a moderately productive bat, but you have to expect more from someone who provides little value on defense. The good news is that he looked better last year, when he slashed .217/.322/.496 with 30 home runs in 127 games, his 12.2% walk rate helping mitigate his low batting average. Like Adams and Pearce, he has a platoon split, hitting much better against right handed pitching (.264/.336/.477 in 2018) than against left handers (.180/.255/.258). He either fits as a platoon bat on a team with enough depth to offset it or on a non-contending team that can live with his struggles against left handed pitching. For his career, the former USC Trojan has 152 home runs, a .242/.337/.452 line, and 8.1 fWAR over 919 games since 2010.

Other Notable
Logan Morrison (15 HR, .186/.276/.368, 1 SB, 74 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR)
Mark Reynolds (13 HR, .248/.328/.476, 0 SB, 112 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR)
Hanley Ramirez (6 HR, .254/.313/.395, 4 SB, 89 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR)

Second Basemen

1. Brian Dozier (2019 Age: 31-32)
2018 Stats: 21 HR, .215/.305/.391, 12 SB, 90 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR in 151 games
Dozier had the worst year of his career at the worst possible time, which puts him in a bad position but which could also give a lucky team a bargain. Dozier accumulated 11.2 fWAR from 2016-2017 while hitting 76 home runs, the former of which was second among second basemen only to Jose Altuve's 14.4 fWAR and the latter of which led all second basemen. However, his slash line dropped to .215/.305/.391 this year just a year after it had sat at .271/.359/.498 for 2017. Interestingly, his strikeout and walk rates remained fairly in line, and his 37.3% hard hit rate was the highest of his career. The problem lied in how he hit the ball; to summarize a bunch of Fangraphs and Baseball Savant data, he wasn't squaring the ball up as much, rather getting under or on top of it too much. Since he was still hitting the ball hard, it likely will only take some minor adjustments to get him back on track. Fortunately, even in his down year, he maintained a very solid 11.1% walk rate. If he rebounds, he's a near-All Star caliber second baseman, though he's more of a backup if he doesn't. It's a risky signing, but one that could pay off. For his career, Dozier has 172 home runs, a .246/.324/.444 slash line, and 22.1 fWAR over 1002 games since 2012.

2. Jed Lowrie (2019 Age: 35)
2018 Stats: 23 HR, .267/.353/.448, 0 SB, 122 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR in 157 games
Lowrie has been one of the game's more underrated players, accumulating the second most fWAR (8.5) among all second basemen over the last two seasons, trailing only Jose Altuve's 12.5. His recent offensive resurgence led to two nearly identical seasons over the last two years, as he slashed .277/.360/.448 in 2017 and .267/.353/.448 in 2018. His 40.1% hard hit rate this year was his best since his 40.4% rate in 2010, when he slashed .287/.381/.526 in 55 games for the Red Sox, and it easily tops his full season career high of 34.5%, set just back in 2017. His combination of on-base ability, moderate power, and good defense, in addition to veteran leadership, make him a valuable starting second baseman even at this stage of his career (he turns 35 at the start of the 2019 season). For his career, the Stanford alum has 104 home runs, a .262/.335/.414 slash line, and 20.0 fWAR over 1109 games since 2008.

3. Daniel Murphy (2019 Age: 34)
2018 Stats: 12 HR, .299/.336/.454, 3 SB, 110 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR in 91 games
Murphy is an older option, so a long term deal likely won't be the way to go, but he likely has at least two more solid offensive seasons left in him where he could be a real contributor to a lineup. His defense is shaky and probably isn't going to get any better, so the value is tied to the bat. Even with the downward slope of his career, he likely provides average on-base ability and at least average power for the foreseeable future, meaning he could even fit on some contending teams. Upon signing Murphy, teams also get a bonus hitting coach, as he has been credited by many Nationals players for helping them with their swing mechanics, getting the ball off the ground and into the air. For his career, the Jacksonville native and Jacksonville University alum has 122 home runs, a .299/.344/.458 slash line, and 24.6 fWAR over 1280 games since 2008.

Other Notable
DJ LeMahieu (15 HR, .276/.321/.428, 6 SB, 86 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR)
Asdrubal Cabrera (23 HR, .262/.316/.458, 0 SB, 111 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR)
Ian Kinsler (14 HR, .240/.301/.380, 16 SB, 87 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR)
Daniel Descalso (13 HR, .238/.353/.436, 0 SB, 111 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR)
Josh Harrison (8 HR, .250/.293/.363, 3 SB, 78 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
Marwin Gonzalez (listed as OF)

Shortstops

1. Manny Machado (2019 Age: 26-27)
2018 Stats: 37 HR, .297/.367/.538, 14 SB, 140 wRC+, 6.2 fWAR in 162 games
Easily the top shortstop available, Machado might be able to challenge Bryce Harper as the best player available overall. It's not often that a team can buy a potential franchise cornerstone, a new face of the franchise, on the open market. How do you price that out? $300 million, more? That's for the teams to figure out. Machado is coming off his third six win season in the past four years, slashing .297/.367/.538 with 37 home runs and 6.2 fWAR while appearing in all 162 games, albeit for two different teams. This past season was his best offensively, with his .377 wOBA and 140 wRC+ both setting career highs, and the ability to play a pretty good shortstop makes him even more of a franchise player. He has posted four straight seasons of at least 33 home runs, 30 doubles, and 156 games played, his 21.7 fWAR over that frame trailing only Francisco Lindor's 22.8 among players who are now shortstops (Machado was a third basemen for the first three years of that span). In fact, the 21.7 fWAR are ninth in all of baseball among position players in that time frame. Throw in that he doesn't turn 27 until July, and you've got a guy set for a ten or more year deal. For his career, the Miami native has 175 home runs, a .282/.335/.487 slash line, and 30.2 fWAR over 926 games since 2012.

2. Freddy Galvis (2019 Age: 29)
2018 Stats: 13 HR, .248/.299/.380, 8 SB, 85 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR in 162 games
There's a big drop from the top shortstop available to the second best, but Freddy Galvis is still a good starting option for a non-contending team or a back-up option for a contender. He's not much with the bat, performing consistently below average, though he does have a bit of a power stroke and he has knocked 49, 47, and 49 extra base hits over the last three seasons. While he struggles to get on base (career high in OBP is .309), the moderate power is nice to have, and his generally solid defense at shortstop makes him overall a useful package. On top of that, his active streak of 325 consecutive games played is the longest in the majors, making him one of the more durable players in the game. As a bonus, he's also one of the younger free agents available. For his career, the Venezuela native has 65 home runs, a .246/.290/.374 slash line, and 7.2 fWAR over 804 games since 2012.

3. Jose Iglesias (2019 Age: 29)
2018 Stats: 5 HR, .269/.310/.389, 15 SB, 90 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 125 games
After he was anointed the Red Sox' "shortstop of the future" at the beginning of the decade, the baseball world kind of stopped paying attention to Jose Iglesias when he was traded to Detroit. He has actually been fairly good, not an All Star but good enough to warrant some notice on the free agent market. In fact, he has been worth at least 1.5 fWAR in each of the past five seasons he played in (he missed the 2014 season with shin issues), mostly due to very good defense. The defense is his calling card, as his bat has been above average just once in his career: wRC+ of 102 in 2013. However, he does hold his own at the plate, knocking 64 doubles over the past two seasons. While he probably wouldn't be a good option for contending teams, he should be able to start on teams with shallower rosters, and because he'll play the entire 2019 season at 29 years old, he's one of the younger free agents available. For his career, the Cuba native has 21 home runs, a .270/.315/.363 slash line, and 10.0 fWAR over 656 games since 2011.

Other Notable
Jordy Mercer (6 HR, .251/.315/.381, 2 SB, 85 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR)
Adeiny Hechavarria (6 HR, .247/.279/.345, 2 SB, 67 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR)
Alcides Escobar (4 HR, .231/.279/.313, 8 SB, 60 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR)
Eric Sogard (0 HR, .134/.241/.165, 3 SB, 14 wRC+, -0.8 fWAR)
Andrew Romine (0 HR, .210/.260/.244  43 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR)
Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera (both listed as 2B)

Third Basemen

1. Josh Donaldson (2019 Age: 33)
2018 Stats: 8 HR, .246/.352/.449, 2 SB, 117 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR in 52 games
This down year came at the worst time for Donaldson, who from 2013-2017 put up five straight seasons with more than 5.0 fWAR. His 34.3 total fWAR in that span placed him second in all of baseball behind only the great Mike Trout's 44.2, and third place Paul Goldschmidt's 27.7 were far behind both. In that stretch, he was one of the game's premier hitters and racked up an incredible 16.2 fWAR between just 2015 and 2016 alone, again only behind Mike Trout's 18.9. Donaldson hit for power, got on base, and played third base all at elite levels, making him one of the game's premier stars. However, he was dogged by calf injuries in 2018 and played just 52 games with a mediocre (by his standards) .246/.352/.449 slash line. To throw in a however to the first however, Donaldson's performance also improved as he got farther and farther from the calf injury, shown in improving quality of contact as well as plate discipline. I don't think he's a safe bet to get back to his MVP caliber 2015-2016 form, but I would be comfortable expecting him to return to 2017 form (33 HR, .270/.385/.559) at least for the near future. Turning 33 over the offseason, he's not young, but he's also not too old yet. He's not as safe a bet as Machado to be a franchise cornerstone, but his bat - and glove - are still very valuable and should net him a large contract. For his career, the Auburn alum has 182 home runs, a .275/.367/.507 slash line, and 36.5 fWAR over 883 games since 2010.

2. Mike Moustakas (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 28 HR, .251/.315/.459, 4 SB, 105 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR in 152 games
Moustakas is a power bat that is a pretty safe bet for 20-30 home runs. I doubt he hits 38 again like he did in 2017, but it's still a profile that fits on most contending teams. He plays good defense at third base and while his on-base percentages aren't the greatest, he gets on enough given his power. He's also a good player to have in the clubhouse, and overall I'd call him a good all around player, one that's not a star but who can contribute from a supporting role. For his career, the Los Angeles native has 147 home runs, a .251/.307/.431 slash line, and 13.2 fWAR in 988 games since 2011.

3. Adrian Beltre (2019 Age: 40)
2018 Stats: 15 HR, .273/.328/.434, 1 SB, 99 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR in 119 games
It's not known whether Beltre will return for a 22nd major league season in 2019, but if he does, my guess is he'll either return to the Rangers or sign with a contender that will give him a chance to win a World Series, which he has not done yet. Amazingly, even as Beltre is set to turn 40 at the start of next season, he's still a good player that puts out essentially league-average production on both sides of the ball. He's a great clubhouse guy to have and he's probably one of the most fan-friendly pick-ups a team could possibly make, and because he's just 23 home runs shy of 500, all it would take would be an unlikely but not unrealistic power surge to get there. For his career, the Dominican future Hall of Famer has 477 home runs, a .286/.339/.480 slash line, and 84.0 fWAR over 2933 games since 1998.

Other Notable
Jung Ho Kang (0 HR, .333/.333/.333, 0 SB, 83 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
Luis Valbuena (9 HR, .199/.253/.335, 3 SB, 59 wRC+, -0.9 fWAR)
Chase Headley (0 HR, .115/.233/.135, 0 SB, 13 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR)
Ryan Flaherty (2 HR, .217/.298/.292, 4 SB, 57 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR)
Manny Machado (listed as SS), Marwin Gonzalez (listed as OF), Asdrubal Cabrera (listed as 2B)

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