Thursday, July 15, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

Full list of draftees

The Dodgers went for a pitching-heavy class here, taking arms with seventeen of nineteen picks and not even drafting a position player until the sixteenth round. They started it off with two high school arms with massive upside, the kind that an excellent player develop pipeline like theirs can turn into aces. Behind them, they picked up a mix of quite a few different types of arms, all of whom have a chance to become legitimate impact prospects in this system. It's easy to like what the Dodgers do when you know they're going to maximize the talent of the guys they brought in. If I had to pick one favorite pick, it would be third rounder Peter Heubeck.
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1-29: LHP Maddux Bruns, UMS-Wright HS [AL]. My rank: #88.
By looking at the draft ranking, you might think I don't like this pick. And honestly I don't love it, but you have to think about the team drafting the player as well as who the player is. The Dodgers, frankly, have some of the best player development in the league, and Maddux Bruns' raw talent fits right into this system. Bruns has some of the best raw stuff in the class, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball that has touched as high as 98 in addition to a hammer of a curveball a distinct slider, and a changeup. It all comes from a big 6'2" frame and seems to get a little extra oomph on it as he works aggressively downhill with his entire body. Named for Greg Maddux, Bruns differs from his namesake in that his control and command are very much a work in progress. He had times over the summer where he lost complete control of the strike zone, and while he looked better during his spring season in Mobile, he's still firmly below average in that regard. The lefty is also old for a high schooler, having turned 19 in June, theoretically giving him less time to develop that finer feel for pitching. That's why he's a perfect fit for the Dodgers, who consistently bring out the absolute best in their players and could turn him into a monster. Though he's committed to defending champion Mississippi State, it looks like the Dodgers got him early enough in the draft that the $2.42 million slot value should be plenty and he could even go a bit below slot.

3-101: RHP Peter Heubeck, Gilman HS [MD]. My rank: #54.
If I were a Dodger fan, I would be thrilled with this pick. Peter Heubeck had legitimate top fifty upside, and if he were still available at this point in the draft, you'd have thought he'd be headed to school. The Dodgers snagged him anyways and will likely pay him a hefty bonus, and when you pair him with Maddux Bruns, the rest of the NL West should be scared. Heubeck is a 6'3" righty that comfortably sits in the low 90's with his fastball for now, topping out around 95, but with plenty of room to add more velocity. He adds a downer curveball that has gotten more consistent this spring, flashing plus at times, and has shown feel for a changeup as well. Over the summer, he struggled to repeat his delivery at times and that led to inconsistent command. However, he quieted it down a bit this year and did a better job of filling up the strike zone, and the more consistent delivery helped his stuff play up as well. One of Heubeck's best aspects is his ability to get down the mound and release the ball out in front, putting nice ride and high spin rates on his pitches. There's top of the rotation upside here, though like Bruns, he's old for the class and will turn 19 shortly after I publish this article. The Baltimore native is committed to Wake Forest and will likely require a signing bonus well above the $577,000 slot value.

4-131: RHP Nick Nastrini, UCLA. My rank: #219.
Staying right in their backyard, the Dodgers headed over to Westwood to make their next pick. Nick Nastrini came into the season with the chance to pitch his way into the top two rounds, but instead saw his command completely implode and finished with a 6.89 ERA and a 48/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings for UCLA. Heading into the season, he was a guy who did a lot of things well and was waiting to put it all together, especially considering he was finally on the mound consistently after a couple of years of battling thoracic outlet syndrome and a pandemic shutdown. His fastball ticked into the low to mid 90's and reached as high as 98, while he also showed the high spin curveball, slider, and above average changeup that he's always had. However, after showing average command in his first two years at UCLA, Nastrini simply could not find the zone in 2021 and walked nearly a quarter of the hitters he faced. The command spiraled downward as the season progressed, too – after walking only ten batters in his first 17.2 innings, he walked fifteen over his next ten innings and thirteen over his final 3.2. At that point, you have to think it's in his head more than anything else. When he's on, you have a well-built, 6'3" righthander with a full arsenal, a history of throwing strikes, and a relatively clean delivery (albeit with a bit of a late arm), so there's definitely starter upside here, but he's a reclamation project for the Dodgers' development staff. Slot value here is $430,800, but I expect the San Diego native to sign for less.

5-162: RHP Ben Casparius, Connecticut. My rank: #174.
Ben Casparius is a pretty different arm from Nick Nastrini. After beginning his career at UNC, he transferred back home to Connecticut in 2020 and after sitting out the pandemic-shortened season, he burst onto the scene as UConn's ace. In fifteen starts, the Westport, Connecticut native put up a 4.03 ERA and a 127/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings, though that ERA actually sat at 3.07 until his final start of the season in which he allowed eleven earned runs to a white hot Notre Dame offense. Casparius doesn't have any plus pitches, but he gets it done with three average to above average offerings in a low 90's fastball, a slider, and an above average changeup that functions as his bread and butter. A dogged competitor, his command may be average in a vacuum, but it plays up due to his willingness to attack the strike zone and go after hitters, and he's been noted as a hard worker off the field as well. Almost 22 and a half, the 6' righty might not come with the upside of Bruns or Heubeck, but he should work as a bit of a balance for this draft class and work his way up as a back-end starter. Slot value is $318,200, but I don't expect him to need that much to sign.

6-192: RHP Emmet Sheehan, Boston College. Unranked.
Emmet Sheehan was a breakout performer for Boston College this spring, putting up a 4.23 ERA and a 106/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.2 innings. He has a pretty average profile on the surface, but again, it's an interesting one that a team like the Dodgers would love to mold. Hailing from the same region of southwestern Connecticut as Ben Casparius, Sheehan brings a low 90's fastball that was ticking into the mid 90's more often as the season went on, adding in a curveball and changeup that are average for now. However, there's a lot the Dodgers can do here. His fastball rides while his changeup fades, and while his curveball lacks power, it has plenty of depth when he snaps it right. A tweak here and a tweak there, and you have a very interesting starting pitching prospect. The 6'5" righty needs to get more consistent with his changeup, add a little power to that curve, and tighten up his command just a little bit to help tunnel his pitches better, all very doable things for the Los Angeles development pipeline. This will be a fun sleeper to follow. Slot value is $247,000 and I doubt he'll require more than that to sign.

11-342: LHP Justin Wrobleski, Oklahoma State. Unranked.
To start off day three, the Dodgers opted for an injured arm in Justin Wrobleski, who went down with Tommy John surgery in April. Wrobleski began his career at Clemson, transferred to the State College of Florida, then on to Oklahoma State for his junior year. His brief time there was up and down, as he posted a 4.20 ERA and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.2 innings, though it should be noted that four of those walks came in his final inning before the injury. He's a 6'1" lefty with a low 90's fastball that gets up to about 95, while his best pitch is an above average slider that flashes legitimate plus from the left side. Coming from a closed off delivery, he gets a nice combination of sweep and depth on the pitch and it can be deadly against both lefties and righties. He also throws an average changeup. Command has come and gone for the Atlanta-area native, and ultimately he may not profile as more than a reliever, but I noted him as an interesting sleeper coming into the season and it will be interesting to see what happens once he gets some consistent innings in the Dodgers system, if he's signable. Wrobleski is also young for the class and didn't turn 21 until the day after the draft, which may make him less signable, so we'll see.

12-372: LHP Ronan Kopp, South Mountain JC [AZ]. Unranked.
Now this is a player development project if there ever was one. Ronan Kopp is a massive, 6'7", 250 pound lefty out of Arizona. He grew up in Scottsdale and was originally set to head due south to Arizona State, but instead of heading to Tempe, he switched his commitment to South Mountain JC just a bit to the southwest in Phoenix proper. There, he was inconsistent, with a 2.84 ERA and a 38/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. Kopp generates easy, easy velocity with his massive frame, running his fastball into the upper 90's at times without expending much effort or working his kinetic chain as effectively as he might be able to with more coaching. There's also a breaking ball that has looked good at times, but he has never found any consistency with it whatsoever. Throw in well below average command and a delivery that needs to be cleaned up considerably, and you have a lot of work to do. But Kopp's combination of size, strength, and handedness is hard to find, and the Dodgers are hoping to strike gold and bring it all out of him. Working in Kopp's favor is age, as he's very young for his class and is actually a little bit younger than Bruns and Heubeck. Signability is always a question with teenagers in the twelfth round, but considering he switched his commitment from Arizona State to South Mountain in part to be eligible this year, you have to think there's a good chance he is signable.

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