The Braves played this draft about as straight up as you tend to see in the modern game, hovering around the slot values for most of their signings aside from a big over slot on AJ Smith-Shawver in the seventh round. First rounder Ryan Cusick obviously comes with the most upside, while second rounder Spencer Schwellenbach is the interesting two-way talent and third and fifth rounders Dylan Dodd and Luke Waddell figure to be the quick movers. There's sneaky upside in fourth and sixth rounders Cal Conley and Justyn-Henry Malloy, while Malloy, Waddell, and seventeenth rounder Tyler Tolve were all taken from ATL schools. I don't have any one pick that I loved in particular here, so I'll go with Malloy as my modest favorite.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-24: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest. My rank: #28.
Another year, another Massachusetts-born Wake Forest arm in the back of the first round. A year after taking Jared Shuster with the 25th overall pick, the Braves went back to Winston-Salem to bring Ryan Cusick down I-85 to the ATL. This is a really interesting arm who has a chance to do some really big things in Atlanta, but will take some work to get there. A product of the same Avon Old Farms boarding school in Connecticut that produced George Springer (via UConn) and 2020 Orioles second round pick Hudson Haskin (via Tulane), Cusick is a massive 6'6" righty that owns the fastest pitch ever recorded in college baseball (thrown to first overall pick Henry Davis no less). That fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and he holds that premium velocity deep into games, and the famous Henry Davis pitch came in at 101.7 on the Trackman gun. The Boston-area native also drops in a power curveball that looks like a true plus pitch at its best, and he can get some nice fade on his changeup as well. The problem for Cusick has been consistency, which would explain why his 4.24 ERA and 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings this year don't look as overpowering as you'd expect given the stuff described above. While he generally does a good job of filling up the strike zone, he's shown little feel to hit his spots within it and has innings every now and again where he can't find the zone at all. His release point has wandered on the fastball, while his curve can flatten out at times and the changeup plays below average despite its movement because he struggles to locate it. There is a ton of upside to unlock here, and the Braves do a good job with pitching in general, so you could be seeing a future ace. I feel like we say every drafted pitcher's stuff could "play up in the bullpen at worst," but Cusick could especially thrive in that role given his problems with consistency. He signed for $2.7 million, which was about $130,000 below slot value.
2-59: RHP Spencer Schwellenbach, Nebraska. My rank: #67.
The top two-way player in this draft (unless you count Bubba Chandler, who was primarily viewed as a pitcher), Spencer Schwellenbach will be a fun follow for that reason alone. He hit .284/.403/.459 with six home runs and a 44/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games this season, while also posting a 0.57 ERA and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings coming out of the Nebraska bullpen. Schwellenbach was announced as a pitcher and I'm not sure whether the Braves plan to let him hit, but regardless, I do prefer the arm. He actually didn't pitch until this spring due to elbow problems, but the stuff was electric when he finally got on the mound. The 6'1" righty ran his fastball up to 99 and sat in the mid 90's out of the bullpen, adding a potentially plus slider and an above average changeup as well. College relievers have a very poor track record, but Schwellenbach is obviously a very unique case as a full time position player who didn't actually pitch as a freshman or a sophomore. At the plate, the central Michigan native shows a compact swing from the right side that began producing more power in 2021. He's a decent defender at shortstop, but with that arm, he could be an asset at third base. I definitely see more upside with the power stuff on the mound, but he has a chance to be a utility infielder as well with a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season and solid on-base percentages. As a bonus, he's young for the class and only turned 21 at the end of May. He signed for $1 million, which was about $190,000 below slot value.
3-96: LHP Dylan Dodd, Southeast Missouri State. Unranked.
The Braves opted to save a little more money here, grabbing fifth year senior Dylan Dodd out of Southeast Missouri State. The Kankakee JC transfer had the best year of his career in 2021, posting a 3.17 ERA and a 120/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings, and it wasn't as weak of a schedule as you might expect as it included starts against NCAA Tournament teams Arkansas, South Alabama, and Ole Miss (combined 4.50 ERA, 25/6 K/BB in 18 IP). Dodd's fastball sits in the low 90's, touching 95-96 at best and playing up due to high spin rates. He adds an average curve and slider that get swings and misses when he locates them, as well as an above average changeup. Everything, especially the changeup, plays up because of his above average command. The 6'3" lefty has a chance to stick in the rotation because of that command, in addition to his strong build, despite his otherwise average stuff. However, the fact that he turned 23 in June means the Braves might not be patient enough to let him work his way up in that role, and in the bullpen he could dump one of his breaking balls and focus on the changeup. The eastern Illinois native signed for $122,500, which was $482,300 below slot value.
4-126: SS Cal Conley, Texas Tech. My rank: #138.
This is a performance-based pick. Cal Conley has done nothing but hit since stepping into Texas Tech's lineup in 2020, slashing .339/.405/.600 with 18 home runs and a 49/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 games in his Red Raider career. He's a clearly above average hitter that makes a ton of hard contact, which in turn limits both his strikeouts (15.1% career rate) and his walks (8.9%). The raw power is only average, but he gets to all of it because the switch hitter consistently finds the barrel from both sides of the plate. If scouts were confident he could tap it consistently with wood bats, he would likely have gone in the top 100 picks, but there are some who believe his college home runs will turn into doubles off the wall in pro ball. Even in that case, he will likely hit a lot of them. The Cincinnati-area native is a high-energy player who manned shortstop for Texas Tech, where his range is a bit stretched, but he he'll be just fine at second base or third base. It's a utility floor with a chance to turn into a very productive regular if the power shows up like the Braves think it will. He's slightly old for the class, having turned 22 shortly after the draft, and he remains unsigned with a $451,800 slot value.
5-157: SS Luke Waddell, Georgia Tech. My rank: #200.
Atlanta went local with a Georgia Tech pick here, but Luke Waddell, like Conley, actually grew up in the Cincinnati area. You can critique the lack of upside, but nobody can deny the floor here as Waddell has been one of the ACC's most consistent hitters over the last four years, slashing .308/.407/.432 with twelve home runs and a 62/92 strikeout to walk ratio over 172 games in his Yellow Jacket career. He shows exceptional feel for the strike zone and struck out in just 8% of his plate appearances in his career (and just 5.8% in 2021), consistently putting the ball in play with a contact-oriented, line drive approach. Waddell also upped his stock a bit this year by hitting a career-high eight home runs, but he still projects for below average power in pro ball. Just 5'9", we're probably talking about a utility ceiling at best, but he's a professional hitter through and through who should be able to make the transition to pro ball very easily and move relatively quickly once there. Having turned 23 on the third day of the draft, he was one of the older players taken this year and is just a month younger than Dylan Dodd. He signed for $247,500, which was $85,800 below slot value.
6-187: 1B Justyn-Henry Malloy, Georgia Tech. Unranked.
Here the Braves picked up a second straight Yellow Jacket, but once again, he was attending Georgia Tech from out of state. Justyn Henry-Malloy is a northern New Jersey product who barely played in two years at Vanderbilt, then broke out with the bat this year upon transferring to Georgia Tech, slashing .308/.436/.558 with eleven home runs and a 40/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Malloy stands out for his patient approach and ability to keep his strikeouts down even when he works into deep counts, something that will undoubtedly be a boon in pro ball when he faces better competition. There is also above average raw power in the tank here, coming from a leveraged right handed swing powered by strong wrists that snap the barrel through the zone. A third baseman at Georgia Tech, he already faced skepticism over his ability to stick there and judging by the fact that the Braves drafted him as a first baseman, it doesn't look like they'll waste any time trying him out there. As a right handed hitting first baseman, the bat will have to carry him, but the puzzle pieces are in place for the 6'2" slugger to outplay his platoon bat projection and hit his way into the everyday lineup. He signed for $297,500, which was $40,100 above slot value.
7-217: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, Colleyville Heritage HS [TX]. Unranked.
After sticking more or less close to slot value over their first six picks, the Braves made their big over slot splash in the seventh round with high school right hander AJ Smith-Shawver. The Dallas-Fort Worth prep is actually relatively new to pitching, having instead spent most of his focus on playing quarterback and put no focus into pitching until this spring. When he came out pumping low 90's fastballs, his stock soared. The 6'3" righty can touch 95 at his best, but there looks to be much more in the tank as he adds weight to his extremely athletic frame, in addition to mechanical changes to improve the kinetic chain from his legs to his arm. There's also a curveball that's average for now, but it has excellent shape and could become a true plus pitch as he adds power and gets more feel for it. For now, a changeup has been more or less an afterthought for Smith-Shawver, something I don't think the Braves are too concerned with. There's a lot of development to be done here, from mechanical cleanup to pro conditioning to development of that changeup, but there's no questioning that this is a supremely talented arm who could take off in their system. Committed to Texas Tech with a chance to play football as well, he signed for $997,500, which was $795,900 above slot value and roughly equivalent to slot value for the 67th overall pick.
17-517: C Tyler Tolve, Kennesaw State. Unranked.
While Georgia Tech stars Justyn-Henry Malloy and Luke Waddell came from out of state, Kennesaw State catcher Tyler Tolve represents a true hometown pick having attended Sprayberry High School in Marietta, just ten miles north of Truist Park. He's hit nearly nonstop in three seasons for the Owls, slashing .313/.393/.444 with eight home runs and a 91/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games, with seven of those home runs coming this season. There's not a ton of video or information available on him, but there's still a lot to like on the surface. He's a 6'2" left handed hitter who tapped his power better than ever in 2021, and he's faster than most catchers as well, picking up eight stolen bases this year. His athleticism will give him a chance to stick behind the plate and be more than a one-dimensional hitter, though he will need to cut down a bit on his swing and miss. His age is a bonus here, having only turned 21 shortly after the draft. He projects as a backup catcher in the long run and signed for $125,000.
No comments:
Post a Comment