A quick(ish) primer on my views on steroids:
3. Edgar Martinez (309 HR, .312/.418/.515 slash, 49 SB, 147 wRC+, 65.5 fWAR)
There are three ways to look at steroid users: let them all in (if they have worthy statistics), let in only those who would have made the Hall of Fame without steroids (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens), or don't let in any. I strongly favor giving those who may or may not have taken steroids the benefit of the doubt, but for those where we know, I fall into the third category. The Hall of Fame honors baseball's greatest players, and while Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would certainly fit that label even if they stayed clean, the fact is that they knowingly broke the rules to gain an advantage. In 1991, Major League Baseball officially banned steroids, but a group of players, even if it was a large group of players, decided that the rules did not apply to them and that they could use steroids. They therefore were not only spitting on the game, but by playing by a different set of rules, were playing a different variation of the sport than the clean players and should not be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. The argument can be made that baseball was dying after the 1994 strike and that viewership was down, and that ownership pressured stars to use steroids to hit more home runs and save the sport, but I see those players more as martyrs than as victims; they still chose to cheat and corrupt the game. They played by a different set of rules and do not belong in the Hall of Fame.
My Ballot
1. Chipper Jones (468 HR, .303/.401/.529 slash, 150 SB, 141 wRC+, 84.6 fWAR)
This will be one of the two players we can all agree on. Chipper Jones played 20 years for the Atlanta Braves, crushing 468 home runs with an on-base percentage over .400 and good-enough defense at the hot corner. He was the NL MVP in 1999 when he slashed .319/.441/.633 with 45 home runs, good for a 165 wRC+ and 7.3 fWAR, and that year was far from an anomaly. I don't think anybody disagrees, so I'll use my words on the more controversial/borderline players.
2. Jim Thome (612 HR, .276/.402/.554 slash, 19 SB, 145 wRC+, 69.0 fWAR)
Jim Thome is the other uncontroversial player. He blasted 612 home runs over a 22 year career, and if that isn't enough to convince you on his own, he maintained a .402 career on-base percentage to make himself a true all-around threat at the plate. In 2002, he won the Roberto Clemente Award, and he was one of the few power hitters of the era to never be tied to steroids. Great guy, great hitter, Hall of Famer. Easy.
3. Edgar Martinez (309 HR, .312/.418/.515 slash, 49 SB, 147 wRC+, 65.5 fWAR)
If you don't think Edgar Martinez belongs in the Hall of Fame, you are wrong. It's true that he was a DH for most of his career and was a butcher in the field when he was out there, but how many times have you stopped and thought about Babe Ruth's defense? Or Ted Williams? Or Willie Stargell? They were all terrible, and if you're reaction is "well at least they played defense," I'm not exactly sure why going out into the field and hurting their team with their gloves is any better than DH'ing, and I'm sure they would have spent much of their careers at DH had the position been available. Now for Edgar's offense: his 147 career wRC+ places him 33rd all time, ahead of Mike Schmidt (147), Willie McCovey (145), Willie Stargell (145), Harmon Killebrew (142), Chipper Jones (141), Alex Rodriguez (141), Mike Piazza (140), and...you get it. Martinez didn't hit for as much power as some of the other guys, having only hit more than 30 home runs in a season once, but he was an on-base machine. His .418 on-base percentage ranks 21st all time, sandwiched between #20 Frank Thomas and #22 Stan Musial. Combine that with power, and he absolutely deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame.
4. Vladimir Guerrero (449 HR, .318/.379/.553 slash, 181 SB, 136 wRC+, 54.3 fWAR)
Vlad may have only played sixteen seasons, but he was a one-man wrecking crew at the plate nearly the entire time he was in the majors. For eleven years from 1998-2008, when offense in baseball was at its highest, Guerrero never posted a wRC+ below 129, meaning he was at worst 29% better at the plate than league average in any given year. He won the 2004 AL MVP by slashing .337/.391/.598 with 39 home runs, and that was only his fourth best season by fWAR (5.9) and his third best by wRC+ (154). Guerrero comes with significant faults away from his hitting, including his mediocre defense and his relative lack of longevity, but his prime, both in peak and length, matches up with almost any non-legendary hitter in the Hall. The only point of contention I have with his offense is his low walk rate (8.1% career) but his high batting average (.318) ensured that his on-base percentage would still be high enough (.379) and he hit for so much power that overall, I am not worried about the low walk rate. If anything, his tendency to swing at (and hit) everything got into pitchers heads enough that it could be seen as a bonus.
5. Andruw Jones (434 HR, .254/.337/.486 slash, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.1 fWAR)
Starting with Andruw Jones, I am less adamant about these next players, but I still believe they are Hall of Famers and would be included on my ballot accordingly. Jones wasn't a legendary hitter, slashing "just" .254/.337/.486 for his career and finishing with a 111 wRC+, just 11% above league average. He was average when it came to getting on base, had a good amount of pop (he did hit 51 home runs in 2005), and could steal a few bases. Offensively, that's an All Star package, but not a Hall of Fame one. Where Jones stood out was in center field, where he won ten straight Gold Gloves and was regarded as potentially the best ever. It's hard to quantify defense and even harder to compare quantified values with players from other eras, but in a time when hitters were blasting baseballs deep into the outfield, nothing fell around Jones in center field. Combine that with 434 home runs over 17 years, and Jones is a Hall of Famer.
6. Mike Mussina (270-153, 3.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2813/785 K/BB, 3562.2 IP)
A 3.68 career ERA doesn't necessarily scream "Hall of Famer," but Mike Mussina deserves the call. For eighteen years, he pitched in hitters' parks (first in Baltimore then in New York) in a hitters' era in a strong division. When you look away from the raw 3.68 ERA, his 82 career ERA- (adjusted to league average, park-adjusted, lower is better) is comparable to that of John Smoltz (81), Juan Marichal (81), Bob Feller (82), and Ron Guidry (83). I am not as confident in pitching WAR as I am in hitting WAR, but Mussina's 82.2 fWAR ranks him 17th all time among pitchers, behind #16 Bob Gibson and ahead of #18 Fergie Jenkins. He topped 150 innings for seventeen straight seasons from 1992-2008, making his starts every fifth day as dependably as anyone. Had he pitched his career in another era and another ballpark, his ERA could be half a run lower and he'd be a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. Combine his longevity with his performance, and Mike Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame.
7. Curt Schilling (216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB, 3261 IP)
Schilling may not have been as consistent as Mussina, but he had higher peaks and overall, his numbers are about equal. His 79.8 fWAR is just behind Mussina's 82.2, ranking him 20th all time. His 80 ERA- is also just ahead of Mussina over slightly fewer innings. His peaks were incredible, as he put up four seasons of at least 7.2 fWAR, and in 2002, he racked up 9.3 by going 23-7 with a 3.23 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 316/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games (35 starts) in an extremely hitter-friendly Arizona ballpark in the middle of the Steroid Era. He also reached 300 strikeouts in 1997 and 1998. He had a bitter relationship with the media throughout his career, which has likely suppressed his votes, but I believe he has done enough to warrant a call to the Hall of Fame.
8. Billy Wagner (47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB, 903 IP)
No, the best reliever on the ballot is not Trevor Hoffman, but Billy Wagner; I don't care how many saves Hoffman had. Though Wagner missed portions of some seasons to injury, he finished his career with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, striking out batters at ridiculous rates while keeping runners off the bases and establishing himself as the greatest closer of all time not named Mariano Rivera. His 24.1 career fWAR is the sixth highest ever for a reliever, and the five above him all threw significantly more innings. RE24 accumulates the change in run expectancy between each event (strikeout, hit, etc.), and it's very useful in measuring the situation to situation effectiveness of a reliever; Wagner's 198.17 is the second most of all time among relievers, behind only Rivera. In win-probability added, which is a pretty decent metric for measuring "clutchness," Wagner is fifth at 28.40, with three of the four ahead of him having thrown significantly more innings again (though Joe Nathan has thrown many fewer, surprisingly). On an out-for-out basis, Wagner is the best closer ever after Rivera.
9. Trevor Hoffman (61-75, 2.87 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1133/307 K/BB, 1089.1 IP)
Wagner may be better, but Hoffman is still one of the greatest relievers ever. He made over one thousand appearances over eighteen seasons, making at least 47 appearances in each of those seasons except 2003. His 26.1 fWAR is the third most ever for a reliever, behind only Mariano Rivera (39.2) and Goose Gossage (28.9). He is one of ten relievers to ever pitch over one thousand games, and of those, only Mariano Rivera (2.06) and Kent Tekulve (2.85) have a lower ERA than his 2.87. Wagner was clearly the better pitcher on and inning for inning basis, but Hoffman's longevity and consistency is what makes him one of the greatest of all time.
10. Larry Walker (383 HR, .313/.400/.565 slash, 230 SB, 140 wRC+, 68.7 fWAR)
Larry Walker is a tough call because he spent nine and a half seasons in Colorado, including his prime, in the days before the humidor. However, his numbers were so outrageous during that prime, especially from 1997-2002, that even the humidor-less Coors Field can't explain away those numbers. In 1997, his best season, he cracked 49 home runs and slashed .366/.452/.720 while stealing 33 bases, good for a 177 wRC+ and 9.1 fWAR. Using wRC+, which adjusts for ballpark and league production, we can find a recent similar season with a more neutral context: this past season, Aaron Judge put up a 173 wRC+ by slashing .284/.422/.627 with 52 home runs. His career 140 wRC+ ranks 68th all time and puts him on the same level as David Ortiz and Frank Howard. At the same time, he just breaks even in defensive value, making him one of just 20 players with positive defensive value and a 140 wRC+. Throw in his 230 stolen bases, and that list of twenty drops to eleven for players with at least 200 stolen bases. Context be damned, Walker had a fantastic career.
Steroid Users Left Off (see steroid primer)
Barry Bonds (762 HR, .298/.444/.607 slash, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR)
Roger Clemens (354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB, 4916.2 IP)
Manny Ramirez (555 HR, .312/.411/.585 slash, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR)
Gary Sheffield (509 HR, .292/.393/.514 slash, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR)*
Sammy Sosa (609 HR, .273/.344/.534 slash, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR)
*Sheffield was named in the Mitchell Report but has significantly less evidence against him as the other names. However, he's a borderline candidate as it is, and the doubt from the steroid allegations is enough to push more deserving players in.
Left Off
Scott Rolen (316 HR, .281/.364/.490 slash, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 70.1 fWAR)
Rolen is very close to being a Hall of Famer, and if the ballot wasn't limited to ten names, I might add him on. For now, though, Rolen will be left off due to other players being more deserving. Rolen was a very good hitter over his career, slashing .281/.364/.490 over a seventeen year career, but where he really shined was on defense. He picked up eight Gold Gloves between 1998 and 2010, and Fangraphs backs up his defensive prowess through their metrics. The high defensive value combined with his solid offense (a career 122 wRC+ is not too shabby) gives him 70.1 fWAR, more than any other non-steroid using hitter on the ballot aside from Chipper Jones, but I'm not as confident in Fangraphs' defensive metrics and will leave him off, at least for this year, due to uncertainty.
Fred McGriff (493 HR, .284/.377/.509 slash, 72 SB, 134 wRC+, 56.9 fWAR)
McGriff was a great hitter, hitting nearly 500 home runs and going sixteen seasons from 1987-2002 without posting an on-base percentage below .350. However, he provided no value on defense, which we saw with Jim Thome and Edgar Martinez wasn't enough to outright disqualify someone, but the offense just wasn't there for the era to alleviate it. His 134 wRC+ is pretty good, but if someone is going to get into the Hall of Fame, I'd like to see a little bit better if there is no defensive value being added. There were so many great power hitters in the era, even ones that weren't linked to steroids, that not everybody can get in.
Omar Vizquel (80 HR, .272/.336/.352 slash, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.6 fWAR)
Omar Vizquel was a legendary shortstop defensively, and with a career that spanned 24 seasons from 1989-2012, Vizquel has to at least be considered for the Hall of Fame. However, I can't "vote" for him because he was utterly useless on offense. It may seem hypocritical because I included "useless" defenders Jim Thome and Edgar Martinez, but I do value offense more than defense and a career .688 OPS (and .310 wOBA) is an outright liability in a lineup where offense is at an all time high. Only twice, in 1999 and 2002, did Vizquel produce more offense than the average hitter by wRC+, and he finished at 83 for his career. For context, some recent players with similar levels of offense include Mark Kotsay (84), Ben Revere (82), Craig Counsell (82), Gordon Beckham (81), and Jose Iglesias (81). This doesn't take away from the fact that Vizquel was an amazing player, as his defense was truly remarkable, but his ineptitude at the plate is enough to keep him out of the Hall for me.
Johan Santana (139-78, 3.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 1988/567 K/BB, 2025.2 IP)
Johan Santana was great, and at his prime from 2002-2010, he was a Hall of Famer. However, shoulder problems forced him to retire after just twelve seasons, and it's tough to convince a voter that 2025.2 innings is enough to get into the Hall of Fame. In fact, only one starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame threw fewer innings than Santana: Dizzy Dean, who went 150-83 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 1967.1 innings over twelve seasons. Santana does best Dean in both fWAR (45.3 to 40.9) and ERA- (74 to 77), but at this point, there are more deserving players on the ballot and Santana will have to wait. We can look back on his prime and see that from 2002-2010, only Roy Halladay (50.4) and Roy Oswalt (44) accumulated more fWAR than Santana (43.7), while his 2.90 ERA was tops among starting pitchers. Maybe in a few years.
Jeff Kent (377 HR, .290/.356/.500 slash, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.1 fWAR)
Jeff Kent had a long career with respectable consistency, posting at least a 98 wRC+ in each of his seventeen seasons and reaching at least 120 in ten straight seasons from 1998-2007. He also played second base, occupying a key position and providing adequate defense there. He was also (a bit surprisingly) the 2000 NL MVP, slashing .334/.424/.596 with 33 home runs, good for a 159 wRC+ and 7.4 fWAR. It all adds up to a very good package, but unfortunately, I don't see it as quite enough to warrant a trip to the Hall of Fame in an era where so many players put up comparable numbers.
Others of note: Jamie Moyer (48.2 fWAR), Johnny Damon (44.5), Chris Carpenter (39.1), Carlos Zambrano (30.6), Carlos Lee (27.5)
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