This year's outfield class is fairly deep, led by J.D. Martinez, Lorenzo Cain, and Shohei Ohtani, with some solid secondary options like Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, and Carlos Gomez. After those front six, the quality of the players available goes down a bit, with mostly fourth outfielders up for grabs.
Bonus: Shohei Ohtani (Previous Team: Nippon-Ham Fighters. 2018 Age: 23-24)
2017 Japan Stats: 8 HR, 31 RBI, .332 AVG, .403 OBP, .540 SLG, 0 SB
I'm not ranking Ohtani because a) he's technically not a free agent yet and b) we don't even know if he'll sign as a pitcher, a hitter, or both. I'll talk about Ohtani the outfielder here, though he is more likely to join the MLB as a pitcher. Ohtani is a power bat who slashed .332/.403/.540 with eight home runs in 65 games in Japan this year, one who could be an above average hitter in the major leagues. However, he did strike out in 27.2% of his plate appearances and walked in 10.4%. That's not the worst walk rate in the world, but he'll need to get a handle on the strike zone before facing more advanced MLB pitching. He doesn't turn 24 until July, so there is absolutely potential for growth, and he'll come much cheaper than the other free agent outfielders (likely about $25 million between the posting fee and the signing bonus). For his career, he has 48 home runs and a .286/.358/.500 line over 403 games in the Nippon Professional Baseball League, Japan's major league. More on his pitching in the next update.
1. J.D. Martinez (Previous Team: Diamondbacks. 2018 Age: 30)
2017 Stats: 45 HR, 104 RBI, .303 AVG, 4 SB, 166 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR
On the surface, it looks like J.D. Martinez had a huge power breakout in 2017, but he's actually always possessed this kind of power. His wRC+'s from 2014 to 2016 were 154, 136, and 141, but it didn't show up as much in his raw numbers because Comerica Park suppresses home run power. His numbers with the Tigers in 2017 were in fact better (.305/.388/.630, enough for a 160 wRC+), but they weren't wholly out of line for his career norms. However, when he was traded to the Diamondbacks, who play in hitter-friendly Chase Field, his slash line shot up to .302/.366/.741 with a not-too-different 172 wRC+ (remember, wRC+ is park-adjusted). This isn't to say his 2017 wasn't a career year, but it doesn't change the way I think of Martinez as a hitter by too much. In fact, I already loved him as a hitter before, and this raw number breakout just confirms it. Unless he signs with a team that plays in one of the West Coast pitchers' parks, expect him to continue to post better numbers than he did in Detroit simply due to the shape of the park around him. Martinez is a first rate bat who can anchor a lineup. For his career, the 30 year old South Florida native has 152 home runs, a .285/.342/.514 slash line, and 13.5 fWAR over 772 games.
2. Lorenzo Cain (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 32)
2017 Stats: 15 HR, 49 RBI, .300 AVG, 26 SB, 115 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR
Lorenzo Cain quietly had another big year in 2017, slashing .300/.363/.440 with 15 home runs and 26 stolen bases, leading all free agent outfielders with 4.1 fWAR. He possesses a rare combination of elite speed and high on-base ability, which has enabled him to be a prototypical leadoff hitter with above average center field defense. His 8.4% walk rate in 2017 was a career high, only helping his case. The only reason to be weary of Cain as a free agent, aside from cost, is that much of his value comes from his speed and that at 31, he may start to slow down soon. That hasn't happened yet, as according to Baseball Savant, his sprint speed actually went up in 2017, from 28.8 and 28.7 feet per second in 2015 and 2016, respectively, to 29.1 feet per second in 2017. For his career, outfielder out of the Florida panhandle has 57 home runs, a .290/.342/.421 slash line, 127 stolen bases, and 23.5 fWAR over 756 games.
3. Jay Bruce (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 31)
2017 Stats: 36 HR, 101 RBI, .254 AVG, 1 SB, 118 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR
Jay Bruce is a power bat who doesn't provide much in the way of on-base percentage (.324 last year), but he clubs home runs with consistency and will be great in the middle of whatever lineup chooses him. This past season, he slashed .254/.324/.508 with 36 home runs and a 118 wRC+, posting his best overall season since 2013. Since he debuted not long after his 21st birthday, it's easy to forget that he won't turn 31 until April, and he'll look to keep mashing wherever he signs on. For his career, the Beaumont, Texas native has 277 home runs, a .249/.319/.472 slash line, and 20.3 fWAR over 1416 games.
4. Carlos Gonzalez (Previous Team: Rockies. 2018 Age: 32)
2017 Stats: 14 HR, 57 RBI, .262 AVG, 3 SB, 84 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR
This year was a bit of a lost year for Carlos Gonzalez, as he missed some time with a shoulder injury and finished with a .262/.339/.423 slash line and 14 home runs in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. The aggregate numbers don't really tell the whole story, as he did surge in September (.377/.484/.766, 6 HR) after struggling for most of the year. He also had terrible home/road splits, slashing a mighty .323/.403/.520 with eight home runs at Coors but a futile .203/.274/.332 with six home runs on the road. Whichever team signs him will be banking on a bounce back, as he did slash .298/.350/.505 with 28 home runs a year ago, good for a 110 wRC+ when you adjust for the Coors Field effect. For his career, CarGo has 215 home runs, a .288/.346/.511 slash line, and 22.9 fWAR over 1200 games.
5. Carlos Gomez (Previous Team: Rangers. 2018 Age: 32)
2017 Stats: 17 HR, 51 RBI, .255 AVG, 13 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR
It's hard to tell what to make of Carlos Gomez. In 2014, he slashed .284/.356/.477 with 23 home runs and 34 stolen bases, racking up 5.7 fWAR. Then everything fell apart in 2015, as he slashed just .255/.314/.409 with 12 home runs and 17 stolen bases, dropping to 2.7 fWAR. He got off to an even worse start in 2016, slashing .210/.272/.322 with five home runs and 13 stolen bases in 85 games for the Astros before being traded to the Rangers, where he completely altered his approach to hitting. The results were immediate, as he finished out the year slashing .284/.362/.543 with eight home runs and five stolen bases in 33 games with the Rangers, and he was expected to carry his new approach into 2017. However, that only happened in part, as his .255/.340/.462 line with 17 home runs and 13 stolen bases was better than in years past, but not nearly what he was in those early years with the Brewers. Whoever signs Gomez is very much gambling on the soon-to-be 32 year old, which is why he may come at a bargain price. For his career, the Dominican who can do it all on his best days has 133 home runs, a .256/.315/.419 slash line, 252 stolen bases, and 28.5 fWAR over 1309 games.
6. Austin Jackson (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 31)
2017 Stats: 7 HR, 35 RBI, .318 AVG, 3 SB, 131 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR
Austin Jackson has been inconsistent throughout his career, but in 85 games for the Indians this past season, he posted excellent offensive numbers by slashing .318/.387/.482 with seven home runs and a 131 wRC+, also making arguably the best defensive play of the year. Teams should be weary of signing Jackson if they're expecting last year's offensive numbers, though, as he slashed just .254/.318/.343 (81 wRC+) without any home runs in 54 games for the White Sox in 2016. He's a mixed bag, but he could be a very useful fourth outfielder or a mediocre starter. For his career, the Dallas area native has 62 home runs, a .275/.336/.403 slash line, 111 stolen bases, and 19.8 fWAR over 999 games.
7. Jon Jay (Previous Team: Cubs. 2018 Age: 33)
2017 Stats: 2 HR, 34 RBI, .296 AVG, 6 SB, 101 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR
Jon Jay has virtually no power, but he's a decent defender in center field who can get on base at a good clip. This past season was a fair assessment of his ability, as he slashed .296/.374/.375 with a pair of home runs and a 101 wRC+, virtually league average production overall. On defense, he's not particularly fast but catches everything within his range, so he does fit in center field if you need him there. He can be a starter on a below average team or a very good fourth outfielder on any team. For his career, the 32 year old former Miami Hurricane has 33 home runs, a .288/.355/.383 slash line, 51 stolen bases, and 14.1 fWAR over 988 games.
8. Melky Cabrera (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 33-34)
2017 Stats: 17 HR, 85 RBI, .285 AVG, 1 SB, 98 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR
Melky Cabrera's 2017 numbers look good on the surface, but advanced metrics don't like him much. His slash line of .285/.324/.423 was essentially league average, as he showed more in the batting average department but wasn't able to augment it with enough walks to make it a strength. For his career, his walk rates have usually sat between six and eight percent, around league average, but that plummeted to a career low 5.4% in 2017 and sapped much of his offensive value. That said, Cabrera can still swing it, producing double digit home runs and slugging at least .394 in each of the past four seasons. If he can get back to being patient at the plate (which is possible considering his 46.1% swing rate was below his career average of 46.3%), he could be a productive regular in 2018, but he also turns 34 in August and may begin to slow down soon. For his career, the Dominican has 131 home runs, a .286/.335/.418 slash line, 98 stolen bases, and 13.4 fWAR over 1676 games.
9. Jose Bautista (Previous Team: Blue Jays. 2018 Age: 37)
2017 Stats: 23 HR, 65 RBI, .203 AVG, 6 SB, 80 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR
It may be surprising to see Jose Bautista ranked this low, but keep in mind that he just turned 37 and he is coming off a year where he slashed .203/.306/.366 with 23 home runs in 157 games. Right now, his value comes almost exclusively from power and walks, and at this point in his career, he is unlikely to turn it around. His strikeout rate jumped to a career high 24.8% this year, and at this point he's probably no better than a decent DH. However, it's always nice to have star power in your lineup, and Bautista can put fans in the seats at least early in the season. For his career, the Dominican has 331 home runs, a .250/.362/.480 slash line, and 33.7 fWAR over 1676 games.
10. Curtis Granderson (Previous Team: Dodgers. 2018 Age: 37)
2017 Stats: 26 HR, 64 RBI, .212 AVG, 6 SB, 105 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
Curtis Granderson may have struggled like crazy after a trade to the Dodgers (.161/.288/.366 in 36 games), but he still put up an overall line of .212/.323/.452, which is quite good and in fact above league average (105 wRC+). He's a deceptively good player, one who gets on base and hits for power, it's hard to ignore that late season slump and the fact that he'll turn 37 in March. He should be a solid fourth outfielder on a good team or a starter on a bad team, but at the very least, he is a positive presence in the clubhouse. For his career, the UI-Chicago alumnus has 319 home runs, a .252/.339/.472 slash line, 151 stolen bases, and 46.1 fWAR over 1796 games.
11. Howie Kendrick (Previous Team: Nationals. 2018 Age: 34-35)
2017 Stats: 9 HR, 41 RBI, .315 AVG, 12 SB, 121 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR
Howie Kendrick boosted his stock with a big year with the bat, slashing .315/.368/.475 with nine home runs in 91 games, playing left field, second base, and first base. I wouldn't expect the same numbers in 2018 due to a high BABIP (.378 over a career .340) despite a regular hard-hit rate (31.4% over a career 31.3%). Still, he provides positional flexibility and has been a fairly consistent player throughout his career, so he could fill a super-utility role with his next team. For his career, the 34 year old out of St. John's River State has 104 home runs, a .291/.334/.421 slash line, 123 stolen bases, and 28.3 fWAR over 1435 games.
12. Seth Smith (Previous Team: Orioles. 2018 Age: 35)
2017 Stats: 13 HR, 32 RBI, .258 AVG, 2 SB, 105 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR
Seth Smith can still hit, as evidenced by a .258/.340/.433 slash line and 105 wRC+ in 2017, but he turned 35 in September and doesn't provide any defensive value, so you'll be buying the bat with him. He also can only hit right handed pitching, so he's strictly a platoon bat. That said, he has moderate power and walks a fair amount, making him a solid option down in the lineup. For his career, the former Ole Miss Rebel has 126 home runs, a .261/.344/.446 slash line, and 13.7 fWAR over 1249 games.
Others: Cameron Maybin (10 HR, .228/.318/.365, 88 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR), Nori Aoki (5 HR, .277/.335/.393, 97 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR), Matt Holliday (19 HR, .231/.316/.432, 98 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR), Michael Saunders (6 HR, .202/.256/.344, 53 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR), Jayson Werth (10 HR, .226/.322/.393, 88 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR)
No comments:
Post a Comment