Sunday, July 31, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: New York Yankees

Full list of draftees

While some teams like to play with the bonus pool to go well above or below slot, the Yankees played this draft extremely straightforward by paying exact slot value for each of their first five picks, never going more than more than $233,500 above slot at any point, and never going more than $92,300 below slot. They're getting better and better at developing pitching, so in this draft they picked up fifteen college pitchers out of their twenty picks. In fact, all twenty of their selections this year came from the college ranks as they looked to pick up quick moving talent that can be up in the majors and contributing by 2024-2025. The Yankees like their guys big and physical, and that was certainly the case here with each of their first seven selections standing at least 6'2" and an average overall size of 6'3", 210 led by their first round selection Spencer Jones at 6'7". Lastly, the Yankees already have west coast flair on the team between Californians Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Aaron Hicks, and Kyle Higashioka, and this draft heavily featured the west coast as well from top to bottom including in each of the first five picks.
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1-25: OF Spencer Jones, Vanderbilt. My rank: #29.
Slot value: $2.88 million. Signing bonus: $2.88 million.
The Yankees started off their draft class with one of the more interesting profiles available. Spencer Jones was a highly touted two-way prospect who earned some first round interest out of high school in the San Diego area back in 2019, but he got hurt his senior year and opted to head east to Vanderbilt. Despite showing a low 90's fastball and an above average curveball from a projectable frame, he never got on the mound in Nashville after Tommy John surgery cost him a third consecutive season. Meanwhile, his bat has developed slowly but steadily and he's gotten better and better throughout his time in the program. He began to turn the corner with a strong (.309/.409/.457) run through the Cape Cod League last summer, then fully broke out by slashing .370/.460/.643 with 12 home runs and a 64/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games this spring. Standing a towering 6'7", he'll fit right into that Yankee lineup with fellow hard hitting skyscrapers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and he draws a lot of parallels to the former. Jones hits the ball extremely hard with some of the best high end exit velocities in the class, helping him tap power consistently in games despite more of a line drive, all fields approach. Speaking of his approach, he takes very good at bats despite not following the most straightforward development path. While he does strike out at a high clip, that's more due to his long limbs creating a longer bat path than due to chasing bad pitches. He's also a great athlete for his size, one that runs well enough with plenty enough arm strength to be an above average right fielder in time or even take a shot at center field. It's a package of tools you don't see often, so despite the swing and miss questions, the Yankees are getting huge upside in a guy who could hit in the middle of their lineup within a few years. At his ceiling, that could mean 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages if he manages his strikeouts.

2-61: RHP Drew Thorpe, Cal Poly. My rank: #93.
Slot value: $1.19 million. Signing bonus: $1.19 million.
I remember watching Drew Thorpe hold Vanderbilt to just two runs over seven innings in his very first college game back in 2020 (and ironically struck out Spencer Jones to close out his first inning), and since then he has quietly been one of the best pitchers on the west coast. He was at his best this spring, posting a 2.32 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 149/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings highlighted by a fifteen strikeout performance against UC San Diego in March. Thorpe sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to about 96 at his best, with some sneaky life on the pitch to boot. His best pitch by far is his changeup, a nasty offering with massive fading life. It's so good that he'll often pitch off of it rather than his fastball, something you rarely see at the amateur level. Previously, the southwestern Utah native struggled to spin a quality breaking ball, but his slider took a step forward this spring and now looks like an average pitch. Despite a delivery that can be a bit rushed at the end, Thorpe pounds the strike zone and rarely lets walks derail his outings. The Yankees will want to help continue improving his slider to give him a second out pitch, and his combination of stuff, command, and a sturdy 6'4" frame could help him move relatively quickly through the minors. While his stuff isn't quite explosive enough to warrant a potential top of the rotation projection, he's a good bet to become a mid-rotation guy in the near future.

3-100: RHP Trystan Vrieling, Gonzaga. My rank: #102.
Slot value: $611,400. Signing bonus: $611,400.
Gonzaga had a loaded pitching staff that featured Gabriel Hughes (now with the Rockies) and William Kepmner (Giants) as their two most famous names entering the season, but Vrieling made it a true three headed monster with a big junior season. He finished the year with a 4.91 ERA and a 107/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings, but he was much stronger early in the season (3.16 ERA, 79/25 K/BB through nine starts) before tiring later in the season (9.13 ERA, 28/21 K/BB over his final six starts). At his best, Vrieling features above average command of a very solid four pitch arsenal, looking like a potential #3 starter. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and tops out at 97 with steep plane and some riding life, while his curveball, slider, and changeup all flash above average. When he's going right, he can locate even the offspeed pitches well to both sides of the plate, making for a complete profile. However, his command deteriorated as he tired later in the season and he was hit hard, leaving him as a bit of an enigma. The 6'4" righty will need to build up his durability in the Yankees system and get more consistent with everything, and he's certainly in the right system to do so.

4-130: OF Anthony Hall, Oregon. My rank: #120.
Slot value: $456,500. Signing bonus: $456,500.
Anthony Hall is not a terribly dissimilar player to Spencer Jones, albeit with a half grade off the tools across the board. Also a San Diego-area product like Jones, he showed well in the Cape Cod League (.283/.382/.481, 4 HR) before breaking out this year at Oregon, where he slashed .333/.402/.640 with 14 home runs and a 43/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. Big and strong at 6'2", Hall can really put a charge into the ball with a leveraged, smooth left handed swing. He previously had trouble tapping that power in games as he didn't always swing at the best pitches, but he's progressively gotten more disciplined in the box and controls the strike zone much better now. That led to him increasing his isolated power (SLG minus AVG) from .184 last year to .307 this year while simultaneously dropping his strikeout rate from 21.7% to 16.6%. It's still a power over hit profile, but certainly a much more balanced one. Hall is a decent runner that can hold his own in a corner outfield spot, but he won't be a value add out there and it will be the bat that carries him up. At best, he profiles for 20-25 home runs a year with average on-base percentages, providing some nice upside for a guy whose floor is that of a platoon/bench bat with pop.

5-160: RHP Eric Reyzelman, Louisiana State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $340,700. Signing bonus: $340,700.
Eric Reyzelman has some of the loudest stuff in the Yankees draft class at his best. A San Francisco transfer, he pitched well on the Cape (2.93 ERA, 38/8 K/BB in 27.2 IP) before landing at LSU this spring, where he put up a 4.04 ERA and a 66/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings out of the bullpen. He loves to attack hitters with his fastball, which is easily his best pitch for now sitting in the mid 90's and touching 99 in short stints. It has a ton of riding and running life on it as well, making it very tough to square up. He has a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup all in his pocket, but he usually leaves them there and sticks with the old #1 as he's much more confident in that fastball. The slider stands out as perhaps his best secondary with good shape, though he does need to sharpen it up. The 6'2" righty is a very good athlete that moves well on the mound with an athletic delivery, and the arm strength is clearly already there. The Yankees' player development system will need to help him choose a couple secondaries to focus on and also get more consistent with his command, and if they can, he has a sneaky chance to start. If not, he can just lean on the slider and watch his fastball approach triple digits, which I'm sure the Yankees would not mind. The San Francisco Bay Area native is a really fun ball of clay and it will be interesting to see what he looks like in a few years.

6-190: RHP Chase Hampton, Texas Tech. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $264,000. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($233,500 above slot value).
The Yankees lone over slot bonus of the first ten rounds is Chase Hampton, a big righty out of Texas Tech. He was well known as a high school senior but went undrafted in the five round 2020 draft, so he headed across the state to Lubbock and has shown flashes of big potential. As a draft eligible sophomore this year, Hampton put up a 4.29 ERA and a 72/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings as the Red Raiders Sunday starter, finishing off the season with a twelve strikeout performance against Notre Dame at the Statesboro Regional. This seems like the kind of profile that could have gone back to school for his junior season and put it all together, which is why the Yankees bought in early with a large over slot bonus for a guy who went unranked on the MLB Pipeline top 250 and came in at #291 on the Baseball America 500 and #548 on Prospects Live. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but can touch the upper 90's early in his starts, showing nice riding action on the pitch. He mixes in a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which flash potential and give the Yankees a lot to work with. Big and strong at 6'2", 225 pounds, the East Texas product has calmed down his delivery a bit since his high school days in Kilgore and has a chance to start if the Yankees are patient and get it right. He still needs to get more consistent with his secondaries and command but he's very young and brings a lot to the table. The profile is actually fairly similar to Eric Reyzelman above him, except that Hampton is much more physical (35 pounds heavier at the same height) and trusts his secondaries more while Reyzelman is thinner and more athletic with a little extra hop to his fastball at the same velocities.

7-220: RHP Cam Schlittler, Northeastern. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $207,500. Signing bonus: $205,000 ($2,500 below slot value).
This is a big, strong pitcher that will be fun for the Yankees player development system to work with. Cam Schlittler had a nice season in the Northeastern rotation, where he out-pitched the more well known Sebastian Keane (also a Yankee draft pick) to the tune of a 3.53 ERA and an 85/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings. He's a huge guy listed at 6'6", and honestly he looks even taller standing up on that mound. The fastball sits in the low 90's but he can touch the mid to upper 90's when he reaches back, coming in with steep downhill plane albeit without much life. He shows great feel to spin the ball, with a sweepy slider flashing above average with great shape and a softer curveball looking average with more top to bottom movement. As with the two arms drafted before him, he does need to get more consistent with those secondaries and his command, but I think he'll get there. Schlittler is not a great athlete, relying more on his height than his lower body to get downhill towards the plate, though he does not throw with much effort and could start in pro ball. Perhaps toughest for some Yankees fans to get over will be the fact that he grew up in Walpole in the shadows of Gillette Stadium and less than twenty miles from Boston, so he's a New Englander through and through.

12-370: RHP Jackson Fristoe, Mississippi State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $272,500 ($147,500 against bonus pool).
Jackson Fristoe seemed like a good candidate to go back to school after a tough sophomore season, but the Yankees picked him up for a large day three bonus to see what they could make of him. After a solid freshman season at Mississippi State, Fristoe regressed in 2022 and posted a 7.71 ERA and a 48/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings for a Bulldogs team that fell far short of expectations. He has a premium body at 6'4" and moves very well on the mound, with a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch higher with life. He throws a sharp cutter/slider in the upper 80's that could be a true weapon if he gets more consistent with it, and also flashes a less used changeup that's effective when it's on. His command is presently below average and the Yankees will need to help streamline his long arms and legs into a more consistent delivery, but the pieces are certainly there to build on. It's a relief profile for now, but you never know. Though the western Kentucky native is eligible as a true sophomore, he's a full year older than his graduating class and already turned 21 in March.

14-430: RHP Kris Bow, Southern Nevada JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Kris Bow has been one of the more interesting JUCO arms on the west coast for a few years now, and he finally put it all together with a great 2022 season in which he posted a 2.16 ERA and a 64/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 innings for the College of Southern Nevada. He has a low to mid 90's fastball with some riding life from a low release point, as well as a full arsenal of secondaries led by an above average slider. He has a very sturdy 6'4" frame and should be durable, but hasn't started on a consistent basis at CSN and he'll have to prove his stuff can hold up over longer periods of time. Still, he has a combination of size, arm strength, secondaries, and command that is difficult to find on day three of the draft, so he could be lightning in a bottle for New York. He just finished his third year at Southern Nevada after previously committing to transfer to Arizona, so he'll turn 22 early in the offseason.

18-550: RHP Sebastian Keane, Northeastern. My rank: #220.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Sebastian Keane was one of the more famous recruits to ever reach campus at Northeastern, coming into Boston having spurned top five round interest out of his northern Massachusetts high school. He's been up and down for the Huskies, but unfortunately 2022 was more of a "down" and he finished with a 5.99 ERA and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings. Now he'll join rotation mate Cam Schlittler in the Yankees system, and they'll work to get him on track. Keane is a great athlete with a low 90's fastball that gets up to 96, while adding a slider that flashes plus at its best in addition to a less used curveball and changeup. The stuff can be extremely inconsistent, with his slider losing snap and his fastball sitting closer to 90 at times, and in 2022 he really struggled to miss bats. His 15.0% strikeout rate this year was by far the lowest on my list, a product of leaving too many pitches over the plate and that regression in his stuff. Still, he doesn't walk too many hitters and has shown flashes of dominance, such as in the Cape Cod League last summer, and has the athleticism and premium stuff at peak to become an impact arm. He's just really far away from that right now and trending in the wrong direction, which is why he's being drafted here in the eighteenth round and not thirteen to fourteen rounds higher like he was projected at his best. And one last piece of good news for Yankee fans – though he grew up in Massachusetts and went to college in Boston, Keane did grow up a Yankees fan, so he's not crossing rivalry lines here.

1 comment:

  1. That was an incredibly detailed yet layman like summary of my favorite team. Great job and PLEASE keep doing these🙂

    ReplyDelete