Saturday, July 30, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Chicago White Sox

Full list of draftees

It was a pitching-heavy draft for the White Sox, especially early on when they selected six arms with their first seven picks. They really diversified those arms too, pivoting from 6'9" lefty Noah Schultz to the injured Peyton Pallette, the pinpoint command of Jonathan Cannon, the data sleeper Tyler Schweitzer, and the elite stuff but nonexistent command of Eric Adler. Schultz turned out to be the only high schooler in the entire class, as Chicago focused on guys closer to the big leagues who could help in the current competitive window.
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1-26: LHP Noah Schultz, Oswego East HS [IL]. My rank: #28.
Slot value: $2.79 million. Signing bonus: $2.80 million ($10,600 above slot value).
The White Sox have spent early round picks on numerous prep pitchers in recent years, with a spotty track record between Tanner McDougal, Jared Kelley, Matthew Thompson, and Andrew Dalquist. They picked up the most interesting one yet in Noah Schultz, a hometown kid out of Oswego East High School on the far western edge of the Chicago suburbs. Schultz has had a rollercoaster of a draft cycle, but the ups have outweighed the downs and he has a chance to become a superstar if everything breaks right. The 6'9" (!) lefty sat in the low 90's and topped around 94 over the previous summer, but he generated huge buzz this spring when he touched 98 early on. His sweeping slider also looked sharper and has a chance to be a true plus pitch, while his changeup is incrementally improving in its own right. Everything plays up because of his massive frame and a low, nearly sidearm slot that puts devastating angle and great life on his pitches. The easy comp is Randy Johnson, especially when he's at the higher end of his velocity range. Unfortunately, Schultz went down with mono and missed a big portion of his spring, so he couldn't prove that the newfound velocity was more than a flash in the pan. His command has been inconsistent but generally close to average, but when he came back from mono later in the season, he was rusty and struggled to consistently keep his long limbs in check. It was rumored that he was strongly leaning towards fulfilling his Vanderbilt commitment, but a $2.8 million check from Jerry Reinsdorf ended up doing the trick and the White Sox have a huge opportunity on their hands. If they can help Schultz hold onto that velocity while getting more consistent with his command, he can be a true ace for his hometown squad. I imagine they'll be careful with him in the early going and it may be a little bit before we see him on a major league mound.

2-62: RHP Peyton Pallette, Arkansas. My rank: #62.
Slot value: $1.16 million. Signing bonus: $1.50 million ($340,800 above slot value).
In the second round, the White Sox picked up a high upside arm with a wide range of potential outcomes. I was in attendance on February 21st, 2021, when Peyton Pallette first rose to prominence in a start against Texas. Not a well-known name at the time, he came out of the gate firing explosive 95-96 MPH fastballs that completely overwhelmed an extraordinarily experienced top of the Longhorn lineup. I caught the first two innings, in which he mainly pitched off that fastball, and came away extremely impressed after he finished it off with a strikeout of Ivan Melendez. He finished that 2021 season with a 4.02 ERA and a 67/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings, but unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery shortly before the 2022 season and hasn't pitched since. Given that Pallette had a few things to prove this year, it leaves him as a bit of an enigma. One one hand, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 99 with some life, but disciplined hitters can pick it up out of his hand and hit it hard when it's over the plate. His curveball is his best pitch, a true hammer with elite spin rates that looks like one of the best breaking balls in the class when he's on the mound. Lastly, he does not use his changeup much, so for now it's mostly a two-pitch profile. The central Arkansas native (from the same Benton High School as fellow Razorback Cliff Lee) is very athletic and repeats his simple delivery well, but he has a skinny 6'1" frame that brings some durability questions. Had he been healthy in 2022, he may have been able to answer those questions, but even though I don't really count Tommy John in durability considerations since everybody gets it nowadays, he still didn't get to prove he could maintain his stuff over a longer season. Pallette throws strikes, but his control is ahead of his command and like I mentioned earlier, he can get hit hard when he leaves his fastball over the plate. Once healthy, the White Sox may try to play with his release to put more deception on the pitch, and if they can help him more effectively incorporate a changeup, he could be a #2 starter. He's relatively young for a college junior to boot, only having turned 21 in May.

3-101: RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia. My rank: #94.
Slot value: $606,600. Signing bonus: $925,000 ($318,400 above slot value).
After two upside plays in Noah Schultz and Peyton Pallette, the White Sox played it safer with Jonathan Cannon in the third round. Cannon was eligible in 2021 as an older sophomore but opted to return to school, where he had very good if unspectacular results. The Atlanta-area native put up a 4.02 ERA and a 68/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings, though he was much stronger in the first half of the season (1.55 ERA, 52/3 K/BB in his first eight starts) than the second half (9.00 ERA, 16/9 K/BB in his final five). Cannon throws hard, sitting in the low to mid 90's and getting up to 96-97 at his best, getting nice extension from his big 6'6" frame. It's a fairly generic pitch movement-wise, so he added a cutter this spring to keep hitters from sitting on the fastball and it has been effective. He adds a slider and changeup as well, with both pitches flashing above average at their best, giving him a very well-rounded five pitch arsenal. To top it all off, Cannon has continually improved his command throughout his time in Athens and is now comfortably plus in that regard, hitting his spots with all of his pitches. He has a big, durable frame, but did miss some time with a forearm strain in April and did not look quite the same when he returned. This is a high probability big league starter that should move very quickly if he stays healthy, with a very good chance to be a #4 guy by 2024.

4-131: SS Jordan Sprinkle, UC Santa Barbara. My rank: #170.
Slot value: $452,900. Signing bonus: $452,900.
For their first position player, the White Sox went out to the west coast and picked up UC Santa Barbara shortstop Jordan Sprinkle. Sprinkle generated a lot of buzz with a strong sophomore season (.353/.402/.536, 7 HR), but an uneven run with the Collegiate National Team and on the Cape followed by a disappointing 2022 season dropped his stock. This year, he hit .285/.381/.416 with three home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 46/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, then committed to transfer to Arkansas as a backup in case the draft didn't work out. He stands out most for his glove, showing off a good arm and very slick defense at shortstop that will make him an asset at the premium position. A plus runner, he can get to balls in the hole and also stole 51 bases over the past two seasons at UCSB. The bat is more of an enigma. An aggressive hitter, he makes a lot of hard contact to all fields and handles advanced pitching well, but his strikeout rate rose from 14.9% as a sophomore to 18.0% as pitchers began to adjust to him. There's not much power to fall back on, with more of a line drive approach and a smaller 5'11" frame. He slugged .536 as a junior but just .362 between the CNT and the Cape over the summer and just .416 this spring, so once he transitions to wood bats full time, it will likely be well below average. The Southern California native brings a utility infield profile whose glove will buy his bat a ton of slack, so he doesn't need to hit a ton to be valuable. If he can get back to his all fields, line drive approach and take the kind of professional at bats he took as a sophomore, he should be a valuable piece off the bench in Chicago soon.

5-161: LHP Tyler Schweitzer, Ball State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $337,600. Signing bonus: $325,000 ($12,600 below slot value).
Here's a fun semi-hometown pick. Tyler Schweitzer grew up in the northeastern Indianapolis suburb of Fishers and attended Hamilton Southeastern High School, where he teamed with 2021 Angels first round pick Sam Bachman and pitched right across town from 2021 Diamondbacks sixth rounder Luke Albright and 2021 Yankees seventeenth rounder Grant Richardson. Schweitzer had a big breakout year in 2022, posting a 2.65 ERA and a 112/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings for Ball State, picking up MAC Pitcher of the Year honors along the way. He's a bit of a jack of all trades, master of none for now, but with steps forward in any one area, he could quickly become a similar force in pro ball to what he was in the MAC. He sits around 90 with his fastball, but has the arm strength to reach back for 96 in short stints and gets impressive riding life on the pitch as well. It's a bit of an invisiball that could become a serious weapon if he gets closer to his peak velocity more frequently. The slider, curveball, and changeup all flash big league potential, but can also flatten out and are fairly inconsistent for now. Similarly, he's an athletic kid that throws a lot of strikes but can have days where he's more control over command. Together, the six foot lefty gives the White Sox a lot to work with, and as he gets stronger and more polished, he could become a back-end starter in Chicago.

6-191: RHP Eric Adler, Wake Forest. My rank: #196.
Slot value: $261,800. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($61,800 below slot value).
If Tyler Schweitzer is a jack of all trades, master of none, then Eric Adler is a master of some trades and completely useless in the others. He entered the season as one of the best pure-relief prospects available after dominating the Cape Cod League to the tune of a 0.96 ERA and a 30/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.2 innings, but 2022 was a different story at Wake Forest. There, his ERA ballooned to 8.86 and he ran a 37/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings as his command completely fell apart. Adler has truly elite stuff, sitting in the mid 90's with a fastball that can get up to 98 at its best and generating explosive life on the pitch to boot. His slider is equally untouchable, with late, sharp downer action. He splits the difference with a very solid cutter that keeps hitters from sitting on one or the other, making for a premium reliever's arsenal. However, he struggled to find the strike zone at all in 2022, with his 22.3% walk rate the worst on my draft board by a full 5% margin. He struggles to keep his body on line to the plate and as you can see by his numbers this year, no level of wicked stuff can make that type of command playable. The White Sox will have to get him back to the fringy command he showed on the Cape, and if he does, the Floridian could be a high leverage reliever that makes you hold your breath a little bit when he puts runners on base.

10-311: 1B Tim Elko, Mississippi. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $149,600. Signing bonus: $35,000 ($114,600 below slot value).
If you're going to spend a paltry $35,000 on a tenth round senior sign, you might as well make it interesting. Tim Elko is just that, leaving Ole Miss as one of the most accomplished hitters in the program's history culminating in a National Championship. He played five years in Oxford and was a middle of the lineup force for the past three, in which he clubbed 43 home runs, drove in 145, and slashed .315/.418/.656 with a 150/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games – some of which was played on a torn ACL. In this case, the stats tell the storyline. At 6'4", 240 pounds, he's a prototypical slugger that will not miss a mistake pitch, punishing virtually every pitcher that has come through the SEC in the past couple of seasons. He has performed against high level stuff for years now, though there is some swing and miss in his game and he'll likely have a below average hit tool in pro ball. Defensively limited to first base with well below average speed, he'll have to tap his power consistently to keep moving up. He profiles best as a bench bat with a ceiling along the lines of a Jesus Aguilar type. The Tampa-area native turns 24 this offseason, so he'll want to move quickly.

12-371: 3B Brooks Baldwin, UNC Wilmington. My rank: #207.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: perhaps a bit above $125K.
Brooks Baldwin has been one of the better hitters in the Colonial Athletic Conference over the past two seasons, combining to slash .335/.377/.598 with 26 home runs, 27 stolen bases, and a 76/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games. However, it wasn't until this summer until his stock really began to take off, as he hit .361/.381/.485 in a 24 game Cape Cod League stint in the month leading up to the draft. Baldwin has an aggressive but improving approach at the plate, making a ton of hard contact to all fields that manifested in back to back seasons with double digit home run totals at UNC Wilmington. The power may not play up with wood bats, but the hit tool is strong enough that he should take to pro pitching relatively easily. It's a high average type with plus wheels that drive a high volume of balls into the gaps for doubles and triples while sneaking his way into some power here and there. He's a very good athlete that saw time at every single position except pitcher and catcher during his four years in Wilmington, with a super utility projection going forward even if he's a bit stretched at shortstop. Though he's a senior sign, he's young for his class and still 21 years old, in fact younger than the junior Jonathan Cannon.

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