1-18: RHP Bryce Jarvis, Duke
CBA-33: RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami
3-90: LHP Liam Norris, Green Hope HS (NC)
4-119: 3B AJ Vukovich, East Troy HS (WI)
5-149: RHP Brandon Pfaadt, Bellarmine
The Diamondbacks went for ceiling in this year's draft class, because after first rounder Bryce Jarvis, none of these guys are safe bets. Well, competitive balance pick Slade Cecconi is safe bet to be at least moderately valuable, but he has a fairly wide variance in his potential outcomes and both third rounder Liam Norris and fourth rounder AJ Vukovich are extreme boom/bust types. A year after they added a ton of depth to the system with a boatload of early picks, they could afford to go boom/bust in this draft, and each guy shows a pretty enticing ceiling. Jarvis, of course, is the most famous name after an immaculate redshirt junior season, and he's easily the best right-now product in this class.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-18: RHP Bryce Jarvis, Duke (my rank: 35)
The Diamondbacks decided to save money on their first pick, but they'll still get easy first round value. Bryce Jarvis might have had the best 2020 season in the country, and that's no exaggeration. The Nashville-area native was very effective over his first two seasons at Duke (10-3, 3.28 ERA, 161/59 K/BB in 123.1 IP), but he knew he could do better, so he turned down the Yankees in the 37th round in 2019 to return for his junior year. It turned out he was right, because after four starts, Jarvis had a 0.67 ERA, a 0.48 WHIP, and a 40/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. That included a 15 strikeout perfect game against Cornell, a near no-hitter against Florida State, and a total of just two earned runs on 15 baserunners combined over his four starts. The difference was in the stuff – after sitting around 90 with his fastball in 2019, Jarvis was comfortably in the mid 90's in 2020 and held that velocity throughout his starts. What were previously decent offspeeds looked like plus pitches in the shortened season, as he can miss bats with his slider, curve, and changeup. The slider is a hard bender with serious bite down in the zone, the newer curve is a bit softer and shows good depth, and the changeup might be the best out of all of them with serious fade to the arm side. There is some concern as to whether he can remain a starter, as he's pretty skinny at 6'2" and pitches with effort, but he repeats his delivery very consistently, throws strikes with all four pitches, and held his velocity deep into games in 2020. He's a year older than the typical college junior and will turn 23 in December, but he should move quickly through the minors and could be a mid rotation starter in the relatively near future. He signed for $2.65 million, which was about $830,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-33: RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (my rank: 34)
15 picks later, the D-Backs grabbed another ACC righty, though Slade Cecconi is a full year and a half younger than Jarvis. A well-known prospect coming out of Trinity Prep High School in the Orlando area in 2018, he got hurt during his senior year and decided to head to Miami instead, where he would be draft-eligible as a sophomore due to his early birthday. The results have been more solid than great, with a 4.09 ERA and a 119/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings between his two seasons, but he's shown enough flashes of greatness that scouts are confident in his upside. Cecconi has a great pitcher's frame at 6'4" and sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a plus slider and a developing cutter and changeup that he has good feel for. He's usually a good strike thrower, but the problem has been consistency, as some days his velocity dips a little, others its his secondary stuff that doesn't look quite as sharp, and still others where his command can be shaky. The Diamondbacks scouts have obviously looked at him and think he's very, very close to taking a big step forward, because with all three working at their best, he looks like a legitimate impact big league starter. While he's very old for a college sophomore, having turned 21 in June, he'd be on the younger side if he were a junior and is therefore younger than most of the college pitchers in this draft. All together, it's a very nice profile that could take a big step forward very soon. Slot value is $2.20 million, but I'd imagine it might take a little bit more to keep him from heading back to Coral Gables.
Pre-draft profile here.
3-90: LHP Liam Norris, Green Hope HS, NC (my rank: 153)
For the second straight season, the Diamondbacks spent an early pick on a North Carolina prep lefty with projection to dream on. A year after grabbing Blake Walston out of high school in Wilmington with the 26th overall pick, the Snakes went up to the Raleigh suburbs to divert Liam Norris away from a UNC commitment. Norris, like Walston, will be a project. He's been very up and down throughout his closely-watched high school career, but this spring was very much an "up" for him and Arizona is bought in. At his best, Norris sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch as high as 96, putting steep downhill plane on the ball that makes it tough to square up. He also shows a big 12-6 curve with tremendous depth, and his more horizontal slider routinely misses bats as well. The changeup is in its rudimentary stages at this point, but that is very forgivable given his age and two breaking balls. What's not as forgivable, though, is his command. Even when he's on, he struggles immensely to find the zone, to the point where he even has trouble getting plain old high school hitters to chase his explosive stuff. Norris struggles to repeat his arm slot and release point, and part of that might owe to his 6'4" size and the fact that he just hasn't quite grown into it yet. The Diamondbacks certainly hope that's the case and that he'll get more coordinated as he gets older, though his August birthday makes him relatively old for a high school senior (and nearly as old as Walston, whose June birthday made him young for last year's draft). Still, as long as his stuff doesn't regress back towards what it looked like over the summer (upper 80's FB, softer secondary stuff), there is a ton of ceiling here. Slot value is $657,600 and I'm not sure what it will take to keep him away from UNC, but the Diamondbacks saved enough with Jarvis that there should be some left over here to go over slot.
4-119: 3B AJ Vukovich, East Troy HS, WI (my rank: 131)
Wisconsin isn't the biggest baseball state in the country, but the Diamondbacks are poised to add a second small town Wisconsinite to the system. Daulton Varsho of Chili (pop. 226) is off to a great start to his pro career, while East Troy (pop. 4,281) native AJ Vukovich is coming in hot from about half an hour southwest of Milwaukee. Vukovich shows tremendous power from the right side, using his 6'5" frame and long, loose arms to create lots of whip and leverage with which to drive the ball deep. However, his hit tool needs significant work, as he swing and missed often on the showcase circuit and it limited his overall production. Even though he's relatively old for the class with a July birthday, the fact that he comes from a cold weather state buys the bat some slack and gives the Diamondbacks hope they can iron him out. Defensively, he shows a very strong arm over at third base, but his overall range is so-so and in an age where shifting has become commonplace, it might be difficult for him to stick there. There is probably a better chance he ends up in right field, left field, or at first base, and if it's one of the latter two, there will be a lot of pressure on his bat. The upside here is 30+ home runs a year,though the risk is very high. Slot value is $483,000, but I imagine it will take significantly more to keep him from heading to Louisville.
5-149: RHP Brandon Pfaadt, Bellarmine (unranked)
Brandon Pfaadt's high school and college were less than four miles apart in eastern Louisville, but he'll head across the country now as the Diamondbacks' fifth round selection. He's gotten better and better throughout his career at Bellarmine, dropping his ERA from 6.04 as a freshman to 4.03 as a sophomore before posting a breakout 2020 season: 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 27/4 K/BB in 26 innings. Given that Bellarmine is a Division II school, it wasn't the toughest competition, but he also has a very strong Cape Cod League summer under his belt as well: 2.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 37/11 K/BB in 36.2 innings. At his best, Pfaadt runs his fastball into the mid 90's from a very loose, whippy arm, and it's tough to square up because it seems to jump out of his hand. He has feel to spin a good curveball as well, though he's relatively new to starting and there isn't much of a changeup. The key for Pfaadt is consistency, as he hasn't proven he can hold his velocity deep into starts and the breaking ball can regress to below average at times. Pfaadt throws plenty of strikes from a durable 6'3" frame, though his delivery has a lot of moving parts that create deception but might be tougher to repeat deep into games. The Diamondbacks might try to take it slow and develop him as a starter, because he has the talent to do so, but his arm action and fastball/curveball combination could fit really well in a bullpen, where he's pitched for most of his career. Slot value is $360,800, though I imagine he takes a bit of a discount.
Undrafted: OF Danny Oriente, Louisville (unranked)
Brandon Pfaadt isn't the only player the Diamondbacks plucked out of college in Louisville, but Danny Oriente is the only undrafted free agent they've signed so far. Oriente has been a consistent performer in the middle of some stacked Louisville lineups, slashing .324/.400/.420 with three home runs and a 56/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 137 career games. The Chicago-area native doesn't have the world's highest ceiling, instead showing a good feel for the game and broad set of average skills. He's hit over power at the plate, using a simple swing, an all-fields approach, and plus bat to ball skills to make consistent line drive contact. He's also not the fastest guy in the world, but he gets the job done in the outfield. It's a fourth or fifth outfielder profile overall.
Tuesday, June 30, 2020
Monday, June 29, 2020
2020 Draft Review: New York Mets
1-19: OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
2-52: RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State
2C-69: OF Isaiah Greene, Corona HS (CA)
3-91: SS Anthony Walters, San Diego State
4-120: C Matthew Dyer, Arizona
5-150: RHP Eric Orze, New Orleans
The Mets were aggressive at the top of the draft and went more conservative later on, and I think the end product was a really nice draft class. I loved each of their first three picks, netting them two speedy Southern California high school outfielders with offensive upside in addition to a recovering TJ arm who has clear first round talent. JT Ginn, the TJ arm, will require a large over slot bonus, so the Mets had to save money later in the draft, signing their third and fifth round picks to a combined $40,000 – adding $964,400 in pool space to reel in Ginn. The Mets pulled in a lot of talent here, especially in those first three picks, and this should give a jolt to their middling farm system. Also, if you live on the North Shore of Long Island, they signed your congressman's son in the undrafted free agent market.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-19: OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS, CA (my rank: 15)
The Mets started off their draft with a bang, picking up probably the most famous name on the high school circuit. Crow-Armstrong, a product of the elite Studio City private school in the Hollywood Hills that once boasted Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in the same rotation at the same time, first emerged onto the draft scene as an underclassman. A lackluster summer in 2019 set his stock back a bit, but he came out of the gate hot in 2020 and started to rebuild. Crow-Armstrong has long been known for his defense, as he's a natural in center field that makes his plus speed play up with great jumps and direct routes to the ball. He'll stick in center field, no doubt, and provide a ton of value there. The bat is a bit more of a question mark, but the production he showed in the shortened 2020 certainly helped. He's a 6'1" left handed hitter with a really loose, contact-oriented swing, but there is some power projection in there and I could see him hitting 20 home runs or more per season at his ceiling. A more realistic expectation might be 15-20, but he also projects for high on-base percentages because he's an advanced hitter who makes very consistent contact. Combine that with plus defense, and you have yourself a heck of a ballplayer. I'm very optimistic on Crow-Armstrong and I think the Mets will be very happy with this pick (as long as they don't trade him to the Mariners to join Jarred Kelenic). He signed away from a Vanderbilt commitment right at slot for $3.36 million and I think he'll be worth every penny. Pre-draft profile here.
2-52: RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (my rank: 23)
There is a good chance the Mets get fantastic value at this spot, even if Ginn does sign over slot. He was actually the 30th overall pick by the Dodgers out of Brandon High School in the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, but he didn't sign and instead headed to Mississippi State. There, his progress has been tremendous. When he got to campus, Ginn was a power-armed freshman who could run his fastball up to 99 with a promising slider, but he had a high effort delivery, a bit of a stocky frame, and was inconsistent with his secondary stuff and command: reliever qualities. However, the progress Ginn made in that freshman season was remarkable, as he leaned out a bit, got more consistent with the slider that is now a plus pitch, and developed a legitimate changeup. Not only that, he smoothed out his delivery a bit, threw more strikes, and had great results for a freshman in the SEC: 8-4, 3.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 105/19 K/BB in 86.1 IP. I liked him as high as the top ten picks earlier in the spring, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and required Tommy John surgery, clouding his status. Still, TJ isn't nearly as scary as it once was, and once he bounces back healthy, I think we have a legitimate impact starting pitcher on our hands, one who could even be an ace. He still has some work to do in getting more consistent with his delivery and hitting spots within the zone, but he's miles ahead of where he was in highs school and should continue to develop in that direction. In the Mets system, he'll join his college teammate and 2019 fourth rounder Jake Mangum. Slot value is $1.4 million at the 52nd pick, but the Mets have nearly $2.6 million left in their bonus pool and I expect him to take most if not all of it. Pre-draft profile here.
2C-69: OF Isaiah Greene, Corona HS, CA (my rank: 50)
More great value for the Mets here at the Zack Wheeler compensation pick, especially since Isaiah Greene signed under slot. Another LA-area high schooler, Greene isn't too, too dissimilar to Pete Crow-Armstrong in that he has a really wide array of ways he can impact the game. The most notable is his plus to plus-plus speed, as he could easily beat the already fast Crow-Armstrong in a foot race and deploys that speed well on both sides of the ball. He's not quite as instinctual a defender as PCA, but he's another true center field type because the instincts are plenty good enough and of course, there's the speed. He shows a really sweet swing from the left side – it's quick and loose, gets some nice loft on there, and consistently stays under control. He makes plenty of hard contact for now, but it's easy to see him growing into average or even slightly above average raw power as he fills out his 6'1" frame. That gives him a peak of perhaps 15-20 home runs per season with plenty of doubles and triples in addition to good on-base percentages, with lots of stolen bases to go with them. I really like the overall package that Greene brings, and if both he makes it along with PCA and the aforementioned Jake Mangum, we might never see a baseball drop in the Citi Field outfield. Greene signed away from a Missouri commitment for $850,000, which was $79,800 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.
3-91: SS Anthony Walters, San Diego State (unranked)
Yet another Los Angeles-area product, Walters bounced around a bit during his college career, starting at Cal before spending a year at Mount San Antonio CC and subsequently transferring to San Diego State. After raking at Mount San Antonio, he was off to a decent start in San Diego, slashing .271/.333/.356 with a home run and an 18/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 16 games in 2020. He's an athletic guy at 6'1", generating some decent power from a line drive right handed swing and good extension. He can be a bit aggressive at the plate at times and doesn't come with the rock-solid plate discipline you tend to see in these money saving picks, so the Mets will have to help him control the strike zone a bit better in pro ball. The good news is he's a glove-first guy who can stick at shortstop, so you can project a utility infield future on him pretty easily. He's kind of an interesting tweener prospect with the bat, not quite a high ceiling type and not quite a high floor type, so providing that value with the glove is really helpful to his profile. As a redshirt junior who will turn 23 over the offseason, Walters didn't have much leverage and signed for just $20,000, which saved $627,300 from the bonus pool.
4-120: C Matthew Dyer, Arizona (unranked)
Dyer grew up in the Phoenix area but started his college career at Oregon, then transferred back to his home state after one season. After sitting out the 2018 season due to transfer rules, he put up a huge 2019 in which he slashed .393/.480/.571 with four home runs and a 28/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, but he priced himself out of the draft to return to Arizona for his redshirt junior year. The results weren't quite the same in 2020, as he slashed just .220/.329/.441 with three home runs and a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games, and he wound up with the Mets in the fourth round. Tall and skinny at a listed 6'4" and 185 pounds, he shows some power generated with his long arms and legs, while a very sound approach at the plate allows him to make consistent contact. It's a pretty balanced offensive profile overall, projecting for maybe 15-20 home runs a year with good on-base percentages at his absolute ceiling, though the key will be continuing to get stronger and fill out that frame. More likely is a super-utility profile in which he provides maybe 5-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, seeing time all over the diamond. The Mets drafted him as a catcher, but he's probably too lanky to stick back there, as he has a good arm but is just so-so when it comes to the finer aspects of catching. He also has experience at second base, third base, and in the outfield, so if he does hit enough to start, he'll probably just end up wherever the Mets need him. Even though he's a redshirt junior, he's relatively young for a fourth year player and only turns 22 in July. Dyer signed for $350,000, which was $128,300 below slot.
5-150: RHP Eric Orze, New Orleans (unranked)
If you're looking for a feel-good story to root for, here it is. Originally from the Chicago area, Orze seems to like the Gulf Coast better and started his career at Northwest Florida State Community College before transferring to the University of New Orleans. He hasn't pitched a whole lot, though, because he's fought and beaten cancer – twice. First testicular, then skin. Now a fifth year senior, he'll turn 23 in August but the right now package is a good one. He started off well in 2020, posting a 2.75 ERA and a 29/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings, and the Mets would like to see that fresh arm hit the ground running in pro ball. He has a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch as high as 97 in shorter stints, adding a very good splitter with great depth down in the zone, an average hard slider with good horizontal movement, and an average cutter that's a little firmer than his slider. He has a skinny 6'3" frame and throws plenty of strikes, but he hasn't proven he can hold his stuff deep into games or deep into the season. That, combined with his age, means that he might be ticketed to the bullpen, though the Mets would love to see him continue to add strength as he gets farther from his cancer battles and potentially surprise some people as a #4 starter. In the bullpen, his fastball could be more consistently in the mid 90's and could play really well off his splitter, and he could move more quickly, which would be useful given his age. He signed for just $20,000, saving $337,100 off of slot value.
Undrafted: OF Joe Suozzi, Boston College (unranked)
Here's a hometown kid for the Mets, and a congressman's son no less. Joe Suozzi, son of U.S. House of Representatives member Thomas Suozzi, grew up in Glen Cove and attended Chaminade High School in Mineola, just twenty minutes west of Citi Field on Long Island. He's gotten better and better throughout his career at Boston College after walking on as a sophomore, capping it off with a great start to his junior year in which he slashed .414/.471/.638 with one home run and a 16/8 strikeout to walk ratio while picking up at least one hit in 14 out of 15 games. That wasn't a weak schedule, either, as it included weekend series against Arizona State and Clemson and he went a combined 11-26 (.423 AVG) with three doubles and two walks in those six games. He's an aggressive hitter that doesn't draw many walks, instead swinging early and often in the count to try to do damage. It's worked better and better for him at BC as his hit tool has developed, and he's got some raw power in his 6'2" frame as well. He'll need to cut down the aggressiveness in pro ball or else advanced pitchers will carve him up, but he showed a lot of impact in the shortened 2020 season and the Mets think the bat will be potent enough to work.
Other undrafted
RHP Kody Davidson, Tennessee (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 8/0 K/BB in 5.1 innings)
RHP Austin Faith, Lamar (0-1, 9.28 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 6/8 K/BB in 10.2 innings)
RHP Dylan Hall, Central Oklahoma (4-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 45/8 K/BB in 30 innings)
OF Brandon McIlwaine, California (2 HR, .258/.309/.435, 2 SB, 22/5 K/BB in 20 games)
RHP Drake Nightengale, South Alabama (1-0, 3.09 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 39/10 K/BB in 23.1 innings)
2-52: RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State
2C-69: OF Isaiah Greene, Corona HS (CA)
3-91: SS Anthony Walters, San Diego State
4-120: C Matthew Dyer, Arizona
5-150: RHP Eric Orze, New Orleans
The Mets were aggressive at the top of the draft and went more conservative later on, and I think the end product was a really nice draft class. I loved each of their first three picks, netting them two speedy Southern California high school outfielders with offensive upside in addition to a recovering TJ arm who has clear first round talent. JT Ginn, the TJ arm, will require a large over slot bonus, so the Mets had to save money later in the draft, signing their third and fifth round picks to a combined $40,000 – adding $964,400 in pool space to reel in Ginn. The Mets pulled in a lot of talent here, especially in those first three picks, and this should give a jolt to their middling farm system. Also, if you live on the North Shore of Long Island, they signed your congressman's son in the undrafted free agent market.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-19: OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS, CA (my rank: 15)
The Mets started off their draft with a bang, picking up probably the most famous name on the high school circuit. Crow-Armstrong, a product of the elite Studio City private school in the Hollywood Hills that once boasted Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in the same rotation at the same time, first emerged onto the draft scene as an underclassman. A lackluster summer in 2019 set his stock back a bit, but he came out of the gate hot in 2020 and started to rebuild. Crow-Armstrong has long been known for his defense, as he's a natural in center field that makes his plus speed play up with great jumps and direct routes to the ball. He'll stick in center field, no doubt, and provide a ton of value there. The bat is a bit more of a question mark, but the production he showed in the shortened 2020 certainly helped. He's a 6'1" left handed hitter with a really loose, contact-oriented swing, but there is some power projection in there and I could see him hitting 20 home runs or more per season at his ceiling. A more realistic expectation might be 15-20, but he also projects for high on-base percentages because he's an advanced hitter who makes very consistent contact. Combine that with plus defense, and you have yourself a heck of a ballplayer. I'm very optimistic on Crow-Armstrong and I think the Mets will be very happy with this pick (as long as they don't trade him to the Mariners to join Jarred Kelenic). He signed away from a Vanderbilt commitment right at slot for $3.36 million and I think he'll be worth every penny. Pre-draft profile here.
2-52: RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (my rank: 23)
There is a good chance the Mets get fantastic value at this spot, even if Ginn does sign over slot. He was actually the 30th overall pick by the Dodgers out of Brandon High School in the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, but he didn't sign and instead headed to Mississippi State. There, his progress has been tremendous. When he got to campus, Ginn was a power-armed freshman who could run his fastball up to 99 with a promising slider, but he had a high effort delivery, a bit of a stocky frame, and was inconsistent with his secondary stuff and command: reliever qualities. However, the progress Ginn made in that freshman season was remarkable, as he leaned out a bit, got more consistent with the slider that is now a plus pitch, and developed a legitimate changeup. Not only that, he smoothed out his delivery a bit, threw more strikes, and had great results for a freshman in the SEC: 8-4, 3.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 105/19 K/BB in 86.1 IP. I liked him as high as the top ten picks earlier in the spring, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and required Tommy John surgery, clouding his status. Still, TJ isn't nearly as scary as it once was, and once he bounces back healthy, I think we have a legitimate impact starting pitcher on our hands, one who could even be an ace. He still has some work to do in getting more consistent with his delivery and hitting spots within the zone, but he's miles ahead of where he was in highs school and should continue to develop in that direction. In the Mets system, he'll join his college teammate and 2019 fourth rounder Jake Mangum. Slot value is $1.4 million at the 52nd pick, but the Mets have nearly $2.6 million left in their bonus pool and I expect him to take most if not all of it. Pre-draft profile here.
2C-69: OF Isaiah Greene, Corona HS, CA (my rank: 50)
More great value for the Mets here at the Zack Wheeler compensation pick, especially since Isaiah Greene signed under slot. Another LA-area high schooler, Greene isn't too, too dissimilar to Pete Crow-Armstrong in that he has a really wide array of ways he can impact the game. The most notable is his plus to plus-plus speed, as he could easily beat the already fast Crow-Armstrong in a foot race and deploys that speed well on both sides of the ball. He's not quite as instinctual a defender as PCA, but he's another true center field type because the instincts are plenty good enough and of course, there's the speed. He shows a really sweet swing from the left side – it's quick and loose, gets some nice loft on there, and consistently stays under control. He makes plenty of hard contact for now, but it's easy to see him growing into average or even slightly above average raw power as he fills out his 6'1" frame. That gives him a peak of perhaps 15-20 home runs per season with plenty of doubles and triples in addition to good on-base percentages, with lots of stolen bases to go with them. I really like the overall package that Greene brings, and if both he makes it along with PCA and the aforementioned Jake Mangum, we might never see a baseball drop in the Citi Field outfield. Greene signed away from a Missouri commitment for $850,000, which was $79,800 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.
3-91: SS Anthony Walters, San Diego State (unranked)
Yet another Los Angeles-area product, Walters bounced around a bit during his college career, starting at Cal before spending a year at Mount San Antonio CC and subsequently transferring to San Diego State. After raking at Mount San Antonio, he was off to a decent start in San Diego, slashing .271/.333/.356 with a home run and an 18/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 16 games in 2020. He's an athletic guy at 6'1", generating some decent power from a line drive right handed swing and good extension. He can be a bit aggressive at the plate at times and doesn't come with the rock-solid plate discipline you tend to see in these money saving picks, so the Mets will have to help him control the strike zone a bit better in pro ball. The good news is he's a glove-first guy who can stick at shortstop, so you can project a utility infield future on him pretty easily. He's kind of an interesting tweener prospect with the bat, not quite a high ceiling type and not quite a high floor type, so providing that value with the glove is really helpful to his profile. As a redshirt junior who will turn 23 over the offseason, Walters didn't have much leverage and signed for just $20,000, which saved $627,300 from the bonus pool.
4-120: C Matthew Dyer, Arizona (unranked)
Dyer grew up in the Phoenix area but started his college career at Oregon, then transferred back to his home state after one season. After sitting out the 2018 season due to transfer rules, he put up a huge 2019 in which he slashed .393/.480/.571 with four home runs and a 28/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, but he priced himself out of the draft to return to Arizona for his redshirt junior year. The results weren't quite the same in 2020, as he slashed just .220/.329/.441 with three home runs and a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games, and he wound up with the Mets in the fourth round. Tall and skinny at a listed 6'4" and 185 pounds, he shows some power generated with his long arms and legs, while a very sound approach at the plate allows him to make consistent contact. It's a pretty balanced offensive profile overall, projecting for maybe 15-20 home runs a year with good on-base percentages at his absolute ceiling, though the key will be continuing to get stronger and fill out that frame. More likely is a super-utility profile in which he provides maybe 5-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, seeing time all over the diamond. The Mets drafted him as a catcher, but he's probably too lanky to stick back there, as he has a good arm but is just so-so when it comes to the finer aspects of catching. He also has experience at second base, third base, and in the outfield, so if he does hit enough to start, he'll probably just end up wherever the Mets need him. Even though he's a redshirt junior, he's relatively young for a fourth year player and only turns 22 in July. Dyer signed for $350,000, which was $128,300 below slot.
5-150: RHP Eric Orze, New Orleans (unranked)
If you're looking for a feel-good story to root for, here it is. Originally from the Chicago area, Orze seems to like the Gulf Coast better and started his career at Northwest Florida State Community College before transferring to the University of New Orleans. He hasn't pitched a whole lot, though, because he's fought and beaten cancer – twice. First testicular, then skin. Now a fifth year senior, he'll turn 23 in August but the right now package is a good one. He started off well in 2020, posting a 2.75 ERA and a 29/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings, and the Mets would like to see that fresh arm hit the ground running in pro ball. He has a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch as high as 97 in shorter stints, adding a very good splitter with great depth down in the zone, an average hard slider with good horizontal movement, and an average cutter that's a little firmer than his slider. He has a skinny 6'3" frame and throws plenty of strikes, but he hasn't proven he can hold his stuff deep into games or deep into the season. That, combined with his age, means that he might be ticketed to the bullpen, though the Mets would love to see him continue to add strength as he gets farther from his cancer battles and potentially surprise some people as a #4 starter. In the bullpen, his fastball could be more consistently in the mid 90's and could play really well off his splitter, and he could move more quickly, which would be useful given his age. He signed for just $20,000, saving $337,100 off of slot value.
Undrafted: OF Joe Suozzi, Boston College (unranked)
Here's a hometown kid for the Mets, and a congressman's son no less. Joe Suozzi, son of U.S. House of Representatives member Thomas Suozzi, grew up in Glen Cove and attended Chaminade High School in Mineola, just twenty minutes west of Citi Field on Long Island. He's gotten better and better throughout his career at Boston College after walking on as a sophomore, capping it off with a great start to his junior year in which he slashed .414/.471/.638 with one home run and a 16/8 strikeout to walk ratio while picking up at least one hit in 14 out of 15 games. That wasn't a weak schedule, either, as it included weekend series against Arizona State and Clemson and he went a combined 11-26 (.423 AVG) with three doubles and two walks in those six games. He's an aggressive hitter that doesn't draw many walks, instead swinging early and often in the count to try to do damage. It's worked better and better for him at BC as his hit tool has developed, and he's got some raw power in his 6'2" frame as well. He'll need to cut down the aggressiveness in pro ball or else advanced pitchers will carve him up, but he showed a lot of impact in the shortened 2020 season and the Mets think the bat will be potent enough to work.
Other undrafted
RHP Kody Davidson, Tennessee (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 8/0 K/BB in 5.1 innings)
RHP Austin Faith, Lamar (0-1, 9.28 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 6/8 K/BB in 10.2 innings)
RHP Dylan Hall, Central Oklahoma (4-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 45/8 K/BB in 30 innings)
OF Brandon McIlwaine, California (2 HR, .258/.309/.435, 2 SB, 22/5 K/BB in 20 games)
RHP Drake Nightengale, South Alabama (1-0, 3.09 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 39/10 K/BB in 23.1 innings)
Sunday, June 28, 2020
2020 Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers
1-20: OF Garrett Mitchell, UCLA
2-53: SS Freddy Zamora, Miami
3-92: C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan
4-121: OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati
5-151: SS Hayden Cantrelle, Louisiana-Lafayette
The Brewers knew what they were looking for in this class, spending all five picks on well-known college bats. I think they did a great job picking up talent, especially starting off with one of my favorite players in the entire class, Garrett Mitchell. Mitchell has serious top of the draft upside, and I think his floor is plenty high enough to have justified the pick far earlier in the first round, so the Brewers got a steal. Behind him, Freddy Zamora and Zavier Warren come with higher floors, while Joey Wiemer is somewhat of a Mitchell-lite and has a ton of upside. Hayden Cantrelle, meanwhile, has a good combination of upside and floor as well if he can shake off an awful 2020 season. I like the class overall.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-20: OF Garrett Mitchell, UCLA (my rank: 6)
I meant it when I stuck Mitchell well inside the top ten of my rankings. I don't think we've seen an amateur hitter with his combination of raw power, speed, and polish in a long time, and I think a team should have been perfectly happy to draft him in the top ten picks. So, why did Mitchell fall? I don't think any single team saw him as the 20th best player in the class, it's just that no single team felt comfortable spending their one first round pick on him. It's been well-publicized that he's a Type I diabetic, which concerned a lot of teams, but which personally I don't give a crap about. My fianceé is a diabetic athlete and she kicks ass on the equestrian circuit. Anyways, the diabetes talk ends there, because Mitchell is a hell of a ballplayer. He's a top of the scale runner who can change games with his speed, and he's a plus pure hitter that has hit .350/.419/.550 with six home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 44/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games since the start of the 2019 season. In batting practice, he shows parking lot power that should scare anybody parking beyond the outfield wall, right up there with some of the best power hitters in the class. However, he employs much more of a line drive approach in games and has hit just six home runs in 121 games in his college career, all of which came in 2019, instead spraying doubles and triples into the gaps and running wild on the bases. The Brewers had massive success with a similar hitter in Christian Yelich and will hope to help Mitchell tap that power way earlier in his career. If they can, he has Yelich-like upside, which is extremely exciting. Mitchell uses his speed well in the outfield and will be a plus defender in center field, adding in a cannon arm because why not. Slot value is $3.24 million. Pre-draft profile here.
2-53: SS Freddy Zamora, Miami (my rank: 88)
Zamora earns a lot of comparison to Rays competitive balance pick Alika Williams, and for good reason. A glove-first shortstop, he had a relatively strong showing with the bat as a sophomore in 2019, slashing .296/.393/.447 with six home runs, 13 stolen bases, and more walks (31) than strikeouts (27), but his stock has slipped since. He was briefly suspended over the offseason for "violating team rules," and just before the 2020 season began, he blew out his knee and would have missed the entire season even if it played out. He makes consistent, line drive contact from the right side, and while nobody is mistaking him for a power hitter, he's hit for more impact as he's grown and he could profile for close to average power. Defensively, he's supremely talented and can make the big play with anybody in this class, but he lacks focus at times and makes unnecessary mistakes. The Brewers have some rough edges to iron out with Zamora, but there is some really nice upside as a 10-15 home run bat who can get on base and play very good defense at shortstop. He signed for $1.15 million, which is $220,000 below slot, saving some money for other over slot candidates. Pre-draft profile here.
3-92: C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (my rank: 108)
This is a really nice pickup fro the Brewers, one that could end up being a steal. Warren is an extremely consistent hitter who has produced everywhere he's gone, including an exceptional .363/.498/.571 slash line with eight home runs and more walks (59) than strikeouts (56) in 60 games as a sophomore and a strong showing on the Cape as well. He takes very professional at bats, working counts and hunting his pitch, and turns that into consistent line drive and extra base contact from both sides of the plate. While he will always be hit over power, there is some home run power in there as well, and he could profile for 15 or more per season with high on-base percentages if he reaches his ceiling. He's played shortstop at Central Michigan, but he profiles more at second or third base in pro ball because he lacks the necessary range. The Brewers, interestingly, drafted him as a catcher, a position he played in high school, and if they can refine his game back there, this could be a real steal. He's probably a utility infielder/fringe starter as it currently stands, still solid value for the third round, but as a catcher, that bat profiles as a full timer, huge value at pick #92. This will be interesting to watch. Slot value sits at $637,600, though I imagine he could take a slight discount.
4-121: OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (my rank: 138)
The second straight Michigan native drafted by the Brewers, Wiemer might be the exact opposite of Warren as a player. While Warren is a professional, high-floor type with a great track record, Wiemer is all over the place and does not have a track record. Over three years at Cincinnati, Wiemer is a career .264/.379/.408 hitter with 12 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 104/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games, solidly decent numbers but nothing to write home about for a fourth round draft pick at a mid-major program. He's a lanky, 6'5" athlete with lots of raw pop and speed, but he hasn't put it together yet. He starts from a noisy setup in which he holds his hands high over his head before dropping them down in his load, using a big leg kick and a long follow through to generate power. He has an aggressive approach, too, but he toned it down a little bit in 2020 and everything considered, there still isn't that much swing and miss in his game. I mean, there is, but not as much as you'd expect given the profile. If the Brewers can calm Wiemer down a little bit, they could have a real breakout, power/speed threat on their hands. Slot value is $437,700, which sounds about right.
5-151: SS Hayden Cantrelle, Louisiana-Lafayette (my rank: 137)
Coming up to the 2020 season, Cantrelle looked like a top two rounds pick. He hit .309/.426/.504 with nine home runs and 28 stolen bases as a sophomore at Louisiana in 2019, the more than held his own with a .303/.404/.419 line over 42 games in the elite Cape Cod League. However, 2020 was a different story – over 17 games, he hit just .136/.320/.237 with one home run and a 16/12 strikeout to walk ratio. He wasn't getting many good pitches to hit and that threw a wrench in his approach at the plate, as he made lots of weak contact and just didn't produce at all. The Brewers are hoping those 17 games were just a fluke, as Cantrelle does show some real upside as a player. The switch hitter has a simple swing that ~usually~ produces consistent line drive contact and moderate power from a 5'11" frame, while his speed enables him to pick up extra bases when he drives the ball to the gaps. He's also a solid defender who could remain at shortstop with a little added refinement, though a guy like Freddy Zamora could push him off the position and let him become an above average second baseman. The upside here is 15-20 home runs a year with solid on-base percenages, but he'll have to get back to the hitter he was before and cut down on some moderate swing and miss as well. If Brewers fans want to get to know their fifth rounder, he's very active on his YouTube channel, 5Guy. Slot value is $353,700, but I think it might take a little bit more to get the Lafayette native out of Lafayette.
Undrafted: 2B Drew Smith, Grand Canyon (unranked)
Drew Smith, from the Omaha area, began his career at Creighton before spending two very successful years at Northeast CC in Nebraska, then transferred to Grand Canyon for his redshirt junior year. He was off to a hot start, slashing .315/.412/.466 with two home runs and a 7/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games before the season shut down. Smith has a very simple, line drive swing from the right side of the plate, which when combined with good plate discipline, helps him make very consistent contact. There is some power in there as well, but at 5'10", he's unlikely to get to average in that regard. He probably fits as a utility infielder who can get on base and play hard, but the upside is relatively modest. Even though he's a redshirt junior, he's closer in age to a regular junior in that he doesn't turn 22 until September.
2-53: SS Freddy Zamora, Miami
3-92: C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan
4-121: OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati
5-151: SS Hayden Cantrelle, Louisiana-Lafayette
The Brewers knew what they were looking for in this class, spending all five picks on well-known college bats. I think they did a great job picking up talent, especially starting off with one of my favorite players in the entire class, Garrett Mitchell. Mitchell has serious top of the draft upside, and I think his floor is plenty high enough to have justified the pick far earlier in the first round, so the Brewers got a steal. Behind him, Freddy Zamora and Zavier Warren come with higher floors, while Joey Wiemer is somewhat of a Mitchell-lite and has a ton of upside. Hayden Cantrelle, meanwhile, has a good combination of upside and floor as well if he can shake off an awful 2020 season. I like the class overall.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-20: OF Garrett Mitchell, UCLA (my rank: 6)
I meant it when I stuck Mitchell well inside the top ten of my rankings. I don't think we've seen an amateur hitter with his combination of raw power, speed, and polish in a long time, and I think a team should have been perfectly happy to draft him in the top ten picks. So, why did Mitchell fall? I don't think any single team saw him as the 20th best player in the class, it's just that no single team felt comfortable spending their one first round pick on him. It's been well-publicized that he's a Type I diabetic, which concerned a lot of teams, but which personally I don't give a crap about. My fianceé is a diabetic athlete and she kicks ass on the equestrian circuit. Anyways, the diabetes talk ends there, because Mitchell is a hell of a ballplayer. He's a top of the scale runner who can change games with his speed, and he's a plus pure hitter that has hit .350/.419/.550 with six home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 44/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games since the start of the 2019 season. In batting practice, he shows parking lot power that should scare anybody parking beyond the outfield wall, right up there with some of the best power hitters in the class. However, he employs much more of a line drive approach in games and has hit just six home runs in 121 games in his college career, all of which came in 2019, instead spraying doubles and triples into the gaps and running wild on the bases. The Brewers had massive success with a similar hitter in Christian Yelich and will hope to help Mitchell tap that power way earlier in his career. If they can, he has Yelich-like upside, which is extremely exciting. Mitchell uses his speed well in the outfield and will be a plus defender in center field, adding in a cannon arm because why not. Slot value is $3.24 million. Pre-draft profile here.
2-53: SS Freddy Zamora, Miami (my rank: 88)
Zamora earns a lot of comparison to Rays competitive balance pick Alika Williams, and for good reason. A glove-first shortstop, he had a relatively strong showing with the bat as a sophomore in 2019, slashing .296/.393/.447 with six home runs, 13 stolen bases, and more walks (31) than strikeouts (27), but his stock has slipped since. He was briefly suspended over the offseason for "violating team rules," and just before the 2020 season began, he blew out his knee and would have missed the entire season even if it played out. He makes consistent, line drive contact from the right side, and while nobody is mistaking him for a power hitter, he's hit for more impact as he's grown and he could profile for close to average power. Defensively, he's supremely talented and can make the big play with anybody in this class, but he lacks focus at times and makes unnecessary mistakes. The Brewers have some rough edges to iron out with Zamora, but there is some really nice upside as a 10-15 home run bat who can get on base and play very good defense at shortstop. He signed for $1.15 million, which is $220,000 below slot, saving some money for other over slot candidates. Pre-draft profile here.
3-92: C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (my rank: 108)
This is a really nice pickup fro the Brewers, one that could end up being a steal. Warren is an extremely consistent hitter who has produced everywhere he's gone, including an exceptional .363/.498/.571 slash line with eight home runs and more walks (59) than strikeouts (56) in 60 games as a sophomore and a strong showing on the Cape as well. He takes very professional at bats, working counts and hunting his pitch, and turns that into consistent line drive and extra base contact from both sides of the plate. While he will always be hit over power, there is some home run power in there as well, and he could profile for 15 or more per season with high on-base percentages if he reaches his ceiling. He's played shortstop at Central Michigan, but he profiles more at second or third base in pro ball because he lacks the necessary range. The Brewers, interestingly, drafted him as a catcher, a position he played in high school, and if they can refine his game back there, this could be a real steal. He's probably a utility infielder/fringe starter as it currently stands, still solid value for the third round, but as a catcher, that bat profiles as a full timer, huge value at pick #92. This will be interesting to watch. Slot value sits at $637,600, though I imagine he could take a slight discount.
4-121: OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (my rank: 138)
The second straight Michigan native drafted by the Brewers, Wiemer might be the exact opposite of Warren as a player. While Warren is a professional, high-floor type with a great track record, Wiemer is all over the place and does not have a track record. Over three years at Cincinnati, Wiemer is a career .264/.379/.408 hitter with 12 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 104/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games, solidly decent numbers but nothing to write home about for a fourth round draft pick at a mid-major program. He's a lanky, 6'5" athlete with lots of raw pop and speed, but he hasn't put it together yet. He starts from a noisy setup in which he holds his hands high over his head before dropping them down in his load, using a big leg kick and a long follow through to generate power. He has an aggressive approach, too, but he toned it down a little bit in 2020 and everything considered, there still isn't that much swing and miss in his game. I mean, there is, but not as much as you'd expect given the profile. If the Brewers can calm Wiemer down a little bit, they could have a real breakout, power/speed threat on their hands. Slot value is $437,700, which sounds about right.
5-151: SS Hayden Cantrelle, Louisiana-Lafayette (my rank: 137)
Coming up to the 2020 season, Cantrelle looked like a top two rounds pick. He hit .309/.426/.504 with nine home runs and 28 stolen bases as a sophomore at Louisiana in 2019, the more than held his own with a .303/.404/.419 line over 42 games in the elite Cape Cod League. However, 2020 was a different story – over 17 games, he hit just .136/.320/.237 with one home run and a 16/12 strikeout to walk ratio. He wasn't getting many good pitches to hit and that threw a wrench in his approach at the plate, as he made lots of weak contact and just didn't produce at all. The Brewers are hoping those 17 games were just a fluke, as Cantrelle does show some real upside as a player. The switch hitter has a simple swing that ~usually~ produces consistent line drive contact and moderate power from a 5'11" frame, while his speed enables him to pick up extra bases when he drives the ball to the gaps. He's also a solid defender who could remain at shortstop with a little added refinement, though a guy like Freddy Zamora could push him off the position and let him become an above average second baseman. The upside here is 15-20 home runs a year with solid on-base percenages, but he'll have to get back to the hitter he was before and cut down on some moderate swing and miss as well. If Brewers fans want to get to know their fifth rounder, he's very active on his YouTube channel, 5Guy. Slot value is $353,700, but I think it might take a little bit more to get the Lafayette native out of Lafayette.
Undrafted: 2B Drew Smith, Grand Canyon (unranked)
Drew Smith, from the Omaha area, began his career at Creighton before spending two very successful years at Northeast CC in Nebraska, then transferred to Grand Canyon for his redshirt junior year. He was off to a hot start, slashing .315/.412/.466 with two home runs and a 7/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games before the season shut down. Smith has a very simple, line drive swing from the right side of the plate, which when combined with good plate discipline, helps him make very consistent contact. There is some power in there as well, but at 5'10", he's unlikely to get to average in that regard. He probably fits as a utility infielder who can get on base and play hard, but the upside is relatively modest. Even though he's a redshirt junior, he's closer in age to a regular junior in that he doesn't turn 22 until September.
Saturday, June 27, 2020
2020 Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals
1-21: 3B Jordan Walker, Decatur HS (GA)
2-54: SS/RHP Masyn Winn, Kingwood HS (TX)
CBB-63: RHP Tink Hence, Watson Chapel HS (AR)
2C-70: OF Alec Burleson, East Carolina
3-93: LHP Levi Prater, Oklahoma
4-122: RHP Ian Bedell, Missouri
5-152: OF LJ Jones IV, Long Beach State
I'm usually a fan of the Cardinals' draft strategy, and this year was no different after they pulled in a really impressive class. They started with three high schoolers early (including two Arkansas signees), all of whom bring great upside and one of whom, Masyn Winn, will be deployed as a two way player. After that, they pivoted to two under slot college players that don't seem like the most exciting picks, before jumping back to go over slot on Missouri's Ian Bedell. Lastly, LJ Jones could be a real hidden gem in this draft class, and he's one of my sleepers to watch going forward. Youth relative to class was a theme here, as six out of seven have March birthdays or later. Lastly, the Cardinals stayed relatively close to home for much of the draft, picking up Tink Hence from Pine Bluff, Arkansas (less than six hours south of St. Louis), Levi Prater from Byng, Oklahoma (less than eight hours southwest of St. Louis), and Ian Bedell from Davenport, Iowa (four hours north of St. Louis, an avid Cardinals fan, and a Mizzou product).
Full index of team reviews here.
1-21: 3B Jordan Walker, Decatur HS, GA (my rank: 30)
The Metro Atlanta high school ranks didn't come with the same depth of talent they usually do this year, but the clear top player in the area was Decatur's Jordan Walker. He's a big, 6'5" slugger that possesses some of the best raw power in the high school class, using his long arms and impressive strength to drive baseballs deep to all fields. He's not just about the power, though, as his high baseball IQ and strong plate discipline enables him to tap that power consistently in games. That was especially so this spring, when he came out of the gate hot and gave scouts confidence he would continue to tap his power in pro ball. While his ability to make contact remains a bit behind his plate discipline, his strength in the latter should enable the former to improve as he grows into his body and tightens up his right handed swing a little bit. That gives him 30+ home run potential in addition to good on-base percentages, a true lineup anchor if everything comes together. His mature approach to the game enables him to play a very solid third base, as does his strong arm, though there are questions about his ability to stick there as more and more is demanded out of practitioners of the hot corner in the age of shifting. A move to first base or a corner outfield spot would put more pressure on his bat, but if he reaches his ceiling, the bat will play anywhere. This is a really fun name to track that's been trending up, and he could remind some Cardinals fans of a right handed Nolan Gorman. Like Gorman, his May birthday makes him slightly younger than the typical high school senior, giving him a little more time to develop. Jordan Walker also has to be a great baseball name, right? He signed away from a Duke commitment for $2.9 million, which saved about $230,000 off of slot value for the Cardinals. Pre-draft profile here.
2-54: SS/RHP Masyn Winn, Kingwood HS, TX (my rank: 29)
This has to be one of the most interesting picks of the draft, and I'm a big fan of it. The Cardinals plucked Masyn Winn out of high school in the Houston area, and they're going to play him two ways in the minors. I'm all for it, as Winn is a special baseball player despite being a bit undersized at 5'11". He has lightning fast hands that work really well on both sides of the ball, and he has star potential for both. Starting with the bat, Winn shows some real power potential despite his smaller frame, generating good raw power from a projectable swing. Though there is a lot of movement in the swing pre-pitch, he finds himself in a low setup before the pitch that puts him in a good position to fling the bat head through the zone with a bit of an uppercut. He has shown some swing and miss, but given how quick his hands are, I think bringing that back a little bit and quieting down the pre-pitch movement could make him an above average hitter. The ceiling there seems to be about 20-25 home runs and decent on-base percentages, with his above average speed helping as well. He's raw, but he is talented enough to stick at shortstop with a bit of extra refinement. I prefer him as a pitcher anyways, where he fires mid 90's fastballs that top out at 98 from an exceptionally quick arm. He also adds an inconsistent curveball and changeup, but the curve looks like a true plus pitch when it's on and he can flash some very good changeups as well. A solid strike thrower, further refinement could make him an undersized impact starting pitcher if he can prove his durability. I honestly doubt that he ends up playing both ways in the majors, just given how much refinement both sides of his game need in addition to his smaller size, but I think the Cardinals are very excited to just push him out there in the minors and see what happens, which emerges as the better side of his game. Committed to Arkansas, he instead signed with the Cardinals for $2.1 million, about $660,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
CBB-63: RHP Tink Hence, Watson Chapel HS, AR (my rank: 81)
As someone who grew up in Virginia, I'm not entirely sure how Arkansas is divided up between Cardinals, Royals, and Rangers Country (maybe Astros and Braves as well?), and Hence's hometown of Pine Bluff is roughly equidistant to the Rangers' and Cardinals' stadiums. So is this a "hometown" pick for the Cardinals? At less than a six hour drive from Busch Stadium, I'll just go with yes. Anyways, you might have seen Tink Hence listed under the first name Markevian leading up to the draft, but whatever you call him, he's an interesting arm. Hence sits in the low 90's with his fastball but he's run it as high as 96 and the velocity is trending up, and he adds in a potentially plus curveball with really tight spin and sharp bite. He can manipulate the breaking ball into more of a slider, one which also shows sharp bite and plus potential. He doesn't have much of a changeup at this point, but having two breaking balls makes up for that at least a little bit given his age, and he's a pretty decent strike thrower. Like with Winn, there are questions about his frame, as he's very skinny at 6'1" and doesn't seem to have much room to fill out. That said, he has a very fast arm (also like Winn) and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, and scouts love the direction he's trending in. With an August birthday that makes him young for a high school senior, he gets another plus. If Hence can hold up under a starter's workload, the Cardinals could have an impact arm here, but there is significant risk just due to the size and high school right hander demographic. Again like Winn, he was committed to Arkansas, but he signed for $1.15 million, or $70,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
2C-70: OF Alec Burleson, East Carolina (unranked)
I was aware of Burleson before the draft, but he just missed my top 160 because I wasn't quite sold enough on the bat given his lack of defensive value. He lands at pick number 70 with the Cardinals, compensation for losing Marcell Ozuna to the Braves. Another two-way player like Winn, he figures to go back to one way in pro ball, after putting up a great offensive track record at ECU. Since the start of 2019, he's hit .371/.408/.568 with 12 home runs and a 27/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games for the Pirates, picking up base hits as consistently as anybody. He has a line drive bat and elite bat to ball skills that enable him to make hard contact in almost every at bat, and he struck out just 40 times in 130 career games for ECU. In fact, he makes such easy contact that he rarely works the count deep enough to draw walks, drawing just 33 over the same span. Now, it's unclear how much power he profiles for in pro ball, as he's hit just 12 home runs in those 130 games and was limited to a .148/.250/.222 line in a short, eight game Cape Cod League sample. He didn't strike out much, just three times in those eight games, but he didn't hit for a ton of authority with wood bats. Once he gives up pitching, he can probably profile for close to average power, perhaps 15-20 home runs per season if we're lucky, but the pressure will be on his bat because he's a mediocre defender. He's pretty slow and doesn't cover a ton of ground in the outfield, and while he does look like he could be above average defensively at first base, the pressure on his bat will be even higher there. I see Burleson more as a bench bat than as a future regular, but I wouldn't bet against a guy who finds the barrel as consistently as he does. He signed for $700,000, which was $206,800 below slot and just about paid for Walker's over slot bonus.
3-93: LHP Levi Prater, Oklahoma (unranked)
Prater was another guy who just missed my rankings, but he's easy to get behind and root for. Hailing from the small town of Byng, Oklahoma, Prater lost three fingers on his right hand to a lawnmower accident as a toddler, so he just throws with his left. He's a bulldog competitor on the mound that gets the absolute most out of what's an otherwise average arsenal; his fastball sits close to 90, topping out at 94, while his slider does a good job of keeping hitters off his fastball but doesn't miss a ton of bats, and his changeup is solid. He's a decent strike thrower but doesn't have the pinpoint command necessary to survive at lower velocities in the majors, and at six feet tall, he doesn't project to add a ton of velocity. That's why the competitiveness and intangibles are the key here, and the Cardinals hope that Prater will simply outwork his competition and sharpen up his stuff. He's relatively young for the class and only turned 21 a week before I published this review, helping his profile out a little bit. Overall, he looks like a #4/#5 starter if he can sharpen up either his stuff or his command just a little bit, or he could be a middle reliever if not. He signed for $575,000, which was $52,900 below slot value.
4-122: RHP Ian Bedell, Missouri (my rank: 100)
Bedell was the player to crack my top 100 and therefore the last player to receive a full pre-draft writeup (my public rankings went up to 125 and I'm including ranks up to 160 in the "my rank" section). I pondered a bit over Hence's status as a hometown player, but while Bedell isn't from Missouri, he has a clearer case. Growing up in Davenport, Iowa, about 250 miles upriver from St. Louis on the Mississippi, Bedell is a lifelong Cardinals fan and spent three years pitching for the Missouri Tigers. Davenport is less than three hours west of Chicago and four hours north of St. Louis, but if he grew up a Cardinals fan and pitched at Mizzou, he's earned the hometown label. Anyways, Bedell has had a highly successful career in Columbia following in the footsteps of guys like Tanner Houck, Michael Plassmeyer, and TJ Sikkema, highlighted by a 1.56 ERA over 40.1 innings as a long reliever in 2019. Bedell also dominated the Cape Cod League over the summer, posting a 2.31 ERA in 35 innings, giving plenty of track record for the Cardinals to lean on. He typically works in the low 90's with his fastball, though as a starter this spring, he was sitting closer to 90 and that caused him to slip a little bit. He adds in an above average curveball that could project as a true plus pitch if he adds a little depth, and he throws a slider and changeup as well that are improving and round out his arsenal really well. While he doesn't have any plus stuff, he commands his pitches well and controls the strike zone even better, holding a 75/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings between the Cape and his shortened 2020 season. He's very young for a college junior in that he won't turn 21 until September, giving him more time to fill out his 6'2" frame and hopefully add a tick of velocity to stay in the rotation. He signed for $800,000, which was $331,000 above slot and higher than both Burleson and Prater's bonuses. Pre-draft profile here.
5-152: OF LJ Jones IV, Long Beach State (unranked)
Here's a really interesting sleeper for you. A product of the same Eastlake High School in the San Diego area that gave us Adrian Gonzalez, 2019 Twins first rounder Keoni Cavaco, and 2020 Giants second rounder Casey Schmitt (via San Diego State), LJ Jones has been a steady performer at Long Beach State when healthy. He hit .312/.358/.408 as a freshman in 2018, missed almost all of the 2019 season when Florida's Jack Leftwich hit him on the hand with a pitch, and returned to hit .327/.377/.509 with two home runs and an even 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the shortened 2020 season. With a strong, somewhat stocky frame, he generates impressive bat speed from the right side of the plate with great leverage. While he hasn't had much of a chance to tap his power at Long Beach State, he has shown the ability to make very consistent contact and I think as he gets more games under his belt, the power will come too. He's going to have to hit, because he's probably limited to left field defensively, but I really like the bat in the fifth round and I think he could hit for both power and average at the major league level. Watch this one. Jones signed for $100,000, which was $250,300 below slot.
Undrafted: RHP Gianluca Dalatri, North Carolina (unranked)
With one of the cooler names in college baseball, Gianluca Dalatri put together a strong and high profile track record at UNC, posting a 3.12 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 151/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 156 innings for the Tar Heels. However, the problem is that he hasn't pitched since early in the 2019 season, as various injuries have nagged him throughout his career – his only full season came in 2017, his freshman year, and he's only thrown 59 innings sine the start of 2018. The stuff is average, as he sits in the upper 80's with his fastball and adds an average curveball and changeup, but he commands it all extremely well and gets good extension in his 6'6" frame. It appears that it should be a durable frame, but given his injury history, that hasn't been the case. The Cardinals will try to develop him as a potential #5 starter or long relief type, but it's noteworthy to get that kind of a college performer on the staff.
Undrafted: RHP Nick Trogrlic-Iverson, Gonzaga (unranked)
Trogrlic-Iverson is pretty well travelled, heading from the Toronto-area high school ranks to Central Arizona College in the desert between Phoenix and Tucson for two years before heading up to Gonzaga in Washington state. He was off to a strong start to his senior year in 2020, striking out 20 while walking just three in 21.1 innings with a 3.80 ERA along the way. Trogrlic-Iverson throws a fastball in the low 90's in addition to a full set of secondary pitches, probably headlined by a solid slider and changeup. Standing 6'1" with a little bit of funky long arm action, he might fit better in the bullpen, where the velocity could tick up and he could focus on one or two secondary pitches. He's a good strike thrower who could move quickly in that relief role and make an impact sooner rather than later.
2-54: SS/RHP Masyn Winn, Kingwood HS (TX)
CBB-63: RHP Tink Hence, Watson Chapel HS (AR)
2C-70: OF Alec Burleson, East Carolina
3-93: LHP Levi Prater, Oklahoma
4-122: RHP Ian Bedell, Missouri
5-152: OF LJ Jones IV, Long Beach State
I'm usually a fan of the Cardinals' draft strategy, and this year was no different after they pulled in a really impressive class. They started with three high schoolers early (including two Arkansas signees), all of whom bring great upside and one of whom, Masyn Winn, will be deployed as a two way player. After that, they pivoted to two under slot college players that don't seem like the most exciting picks, before jumping back to go over slot on Missouri's Ian Bedell. Lastly, LJ Jones could be a real hidden gem in this draft class, and he's one of my sleepers to watch going forward. Youth relative to class was a theme here, as six out of seven have March birthdays or later. Lastly, the Cardinals stayed relatively close to home for much of the draft, picking up Tink Hence from Pine Bluff, Arkansas (less than six hours south of St. Louis), Levi Prater from Byng, Oklahoma (less than eight hours southwest of St. Louis), and Ian Bedell from Davenport, Iowa (four hours north of St. Louis, an avid Cardinals fan, and a Mizzou product).
Full index of team reviews here.
1-21: 3B Jordan Walker, Decatur HS, GA (my rank: 30)
The Metro Atlanta high school ranks didn't come with the same depth of talent they usually do this year, but the clear top player in the area was Decatur's Jordan Walker. He's a big, 6'5" slugger that possesses some of the best raw power in the high school class, using his long arms and impressive strength to drive baseballs deep to all fields. He's not just about the power, though, as his high baseball IQ and strong plate discipline enables him to tap that power consistently in games. That was especially so this spring, when he came out of the gate hot and gave scouts confidence he would continue to tap his power in pro ball. While his ability to make contact remains a bit behind his plate discipline, his strength in the latter should enable the former to improve as he grows into his body and tightens up his right handed swing a little bit. That gives him 30+ home run potential in addition to good on-base percentages, a true lineup anchor if everything comes together. His mature approach to the game enables him to play a very solid third base, as does his strong arm, though there are questions about his ability to stick there as more and more is demanded out of practitioners of the hot corner in the age of shifting. A move to first base or a corner outfield spot would put more pressure on his bat, but if he reaches his ceiling, the bat will play anywhere. This is a really fun name to track that's been trending up, and he could remind some Cardinals fans of a right handed Nolan Gorman. Like Gorman, his May birthday makes him slightly younger than the typical high school senior, giving him a little more time to develop. Jordan Walker also has to be a great baseball name, right? He signed away from a Duke commitment for $2.9 million, which saved about $230,000 off of slot value for the Cardinals. Pre-draft profile here.
2-54: SS/RHP Masyn Winn, Kingwood HS, TX (my rank: 29)
This has to be one of the most interesting picks of the draft, and I'm a big fan of it. The Cardinals plucked Masyn Winn out of high school in the Houston area, and they're going to play him two ways in the minors. I'm all for it, as Winn is a special baseball player despite being a bit undersized at 5'11". He has lightning fast hands that work really well on both sides of the ball, and he has star potential for both. Starting with the bat, Winn shows some real power potential despite his smaller frame, generating good raw power from a projectable swing. Though there is a lot of movement in the swing pre-pitch, he finds himself in a low setup before the pitch that puts him in a good position to fling the bat head through the zone with a bit of an uppercut. He has shown some swing and miss, but given how quick his hands are, I think bringing that back a little bit and quieting down the pre-pitch movement could make him an above average hitter. The ceiling there seems to be about 20-25 home runs and decent on-base percentages, with his above average speed helping as well. He's raw, but he is talented enough to stick at shortstop with a bit of extra refinement. I prefer him as a pitcher anyways, where he fires mid 90's fastballs that top out at 98 from an exceptionally quick arm. He also adds an inconsistent curveball and changeup, but the curve looks like a true plus pitch when it's on and he can flash some very good changeups as well. A solid strike thrower, further refinement could make him an undersized impact starting pitcher if he can prove his durability. I honestly doubt that he ends up playing both ways in the majors, just given how much refinement both sides of his game need in addition to his smaller size, but I think the Cardinals are very excited to just push him out there in the minors and see what happens, which emerges as the better side of his game. Committed to Arkansas, he instead signed with the Cardinals for $2.1 million, about $660,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
CBB-63: RHP Tink Hence, Watson Chapel HS, AR (my rank: 81)
As someone who grew up in Virginia, I'm not entirely sure how Arkansas is divided up between Cardinals, Royals, and Rangers Country (maybe Astros and Braves as well?), and Hence's hometown of Pine Bluff is roughly equidistant to the Rangers' and Cardinals' stadiums. So is this a "hometown" pick for the Cardinals? At less than a six hour drive from Busch Stadium, I'll just go with yes. Anyways, you might have seen Tink Hence listed under the first name Markevian leading up to the draft, but whatever you call him, he's an interesting arm. Hence sits in the low 90's with his fastball but he's run it as high as 96 and the velocity is trending up, and he adds in a potentially plus curveball with really tight spin and sharp bite. He can manipulate the breaking ball into more of a slider, one which also shows sharp bite and plus potential. He doesn't have much of a changeup at this point, but having two breaking balls makes up for that at least a little bit given his age, and he's a pretty decent strike thrower. Like with Winn, there are questions about his frame, as he's very skinny at 6'1" and doesn't seem to have much room to fill out. That said, he has a very fast arm (also like Winn) and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, and scouts love the direction he's trending in. With an August birthday that makes him young for a high school senior, he gets another plus. If Hence can hold up under a starter's workload, the Cardinals could have an impact arm here, but there is significant risk just due to the size and high school right hander demographic. Again like Winn, he was committed to Arkansas, but he signed for $1.15 million, or $70,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
2C-70: OF Alec Burleson, East Carolina (unranked)
I was aware of Burleson before the draft, but he just missed my top 160 because I wasn't quite sold enough on the bat given his lack of defensive value. He lands at pick number 70 with the Cardinals, compensation for losing Marcell Ozuna to the Braves. Another two-way player like Winn, he figures to go back to one way in pro ball, after putting up a great offensive track record at ECU. Since the start of 2019, he's hit .371/.408/.568 with 12 home runs and a 27/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games for the Pirates, picking up base hits as consistently as anybody. He has a line drive bat and elite bat to ball skills that enable him to make hard contact in almost every at bat, and he struck out just 40 times in 130 career games for ECU. In fact, he makes such easy contact that he rarely works the count deep enough to draw walks, drawing just 33 over the same span. Now, it's unclear how much power he profiles for in pro ball, as he's hit just 12 home runs in those 130 games and was limited to a .148/.250/.222 line in a short, eight game Cape Cod League sample. He didn't strike out much, just three times in those eight games, but he didn't hit for a ton of authority with wood bats. Once he gives up pitching, he can probably profile for close to average power, perhaps 15-20 home runs per season if we're lucky, but the pressure will be on his bat because he's a mediocre defender. He's pretty slow and doesn't cover a ton of ground in the outfield, and while he does look like he could be above average defensively at first base, the pressure on his bat will be even higher there. I see Burleson more as a bench bat than as a future regular, but I wouldn't bet against a guy who finds the barrel as consistently as he does. He signed for $700,000, which was $206,800 below slot and just about paid for Walker's over slot bonus.
3-93: LHP Levi Prater, Oklahoma (unranked)
Prater was another guy who just missed my rankings, but he's easy to get behind and root for. Hailing from the small town of Byng, Oklahoma, Prater lost three fingers on his right hand to a lawnmower accident as a toddler, so he just throws with his left. He's a bulldog competitor on the mound that gets the absolute most out of what's an otherwise average arsenal; his fastball sits close to 90, topping out at 94, while his slider does a good job of keeping hitters off his fastball but doesn't miss a ton of bats, and his changeup is solid. He's a decent strike thrower but doesn't have the pinpoint command necessary to survive at lower velocities in the majors, and at six feet tall, he doesn't project to add a ton of velocity. That's why the competitiveness and intangibles are the key here, and the Cardinals hope that Prater will simply outwork his competition and sharpen up his stuff. He's relatively young for the class and only turned 21 a week before I published this review, helping his profile out a little bit. Overall, he looks like a #4/#5 starter if he can sharpen up either his stuff or his command just a little bit, or he could be a middle reliever if not. He signed for $575,000, which was $52,900 below slot value.
4-122: RHP Ian Bedell, Missouri (my rank: 100)
Bedell was the player to crack my top 100 and therefore the last player to receive a full pre-draft writeup (my public rankings went up to 125 and I'm including ranks up to 160 in the "my rank" section). I pondered a bit over Hence's status as a hometown player, but while Bedell isn't from Missouri, he has a clearer case. Growing up in Davenport, Iowa, about 250 miles upriver from St. Louis on the Mississippi, Bedell is a lifelong Cardinals fan and spent three years pitching for the Missouri Tigers. Davenport is less than three hours west of Chicago and four hours north of St. Louis, but if he grew up a Cardinals fan and pitched at Mizzou, he's earned the hometown label. Anyways, Bedell has had a highly successful career in Columbia following in the footsteps of guys like Tanner Houck, Michael Plassmeyer, and TJ Sikkema, highlighted by a 1.56 ERA over 40.1 innings as a long reliever in 2019. Bedell also dominated the Cape Cod League over the summer, posting a 2.31 ERA in 35 innings, giving plenty of track record for the Cardinals to lean on. He typically works in the low 90's with his fastball, though as a starter this spring, he was sitting closer to 90 and that caused him to slip a little bit. He adds in an above average curveball that could project as a true plus pitch if he adds a little depth, and he throws a slider and changeup as well that are improving and round out his arsenal really well. While he doesn't have any plus stuff, he commands his pitches well and controls the strike zone even better, holding a 75/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings between the Cape and his shortened 2020 season. He's very young for a college junior in that he won't turn 21 until September, giving him more time to fill out his 6'2" frame and hopefully add a tick of velocity to stay in the rotation. He signed for $800,000, which was $331,000 above slot and higher than both Burleson and Prater's bonuses. Pre-draft profile here.
5-152: OF LJ Jones IV, Long Beach State (unranked)
Here's a really interesting sleeper for you. A product of the same Eastlake High School in the San Diego area that gave us Adrian Gonzalez, 2019 Twins first rounder Keoni Cavaco, and 2020 Giants second rounder Casey Schmitt (via San Diego State), LJ Jones has been a steady performer at Long Beach State when healthy. He hit .312/.358/.408 as a freshman in 2018, missed almost all of the 2019 season when Florida's Jack Leftwich hit him on the hand with a pitch, and returned to hit .327/.377/.509 with two home runs and an even 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the shortened 2020 season. With a strong, somewhat stocky frame, he generates impressive bat speed from the right side of the plate with great leverage. While he hasn't had much of a chance to tap his power at Long Beach State, he has shown the ability to make very consistent contact and I think as he gets more games under his belt, the power will come too. He's going to have to hit, because he's probably limited to left field defensively, but I really like the bat in the fifth round and I think he could hit for both power and average at the major league level. Watch this one. Jones signed for $100,000, which was $250,300 below slot.
Undrafted: RHP Gianluca Dalatri, North Carolina (unranked)
With one of the cooler names in college baseball, Gianluca Dalatri put together a strong and high profile track record at UNC, posting a 3.12 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 151/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 156 innings for the Tar Heels. However, the problem is that he hasn't pitched since early in the 2019 season, as various injuries have nagged him throughout his career – his only full season came in 2017, his freshman year, and he's only thrown 59 innings sine the start of 2018. The stuff is average, as he sits in the upper 80's with his fastball and adds an average curveball and changeup, but he commands it all extremely well and gets good extension in his 6'6" frame. It appears that it should be a durable frame, but given his injury history, that hasn't been the case. The Cardinals will try to develop him as a potential #5 starter or long relief type, but it's noteworthy to get that kind of a college performer on the staff.
Undrafted: RHP Nick Trogrlic-Iverson, Gonzaga (unranked)
Trogrlic-Iverson is pretty well travelled, heading from the Toronto-area high school ranks to Central Arizona College in the desert between Phoenix and Tucson for two years before heading up to Gonzaga in Washington state. He was off to a strong start to his senior year in 2020, striking out 20 while walking just three in 21.1 innings with a 3.80 ERA along the way. Trogrlic-Iverson throws a fastball in the low 90's in addition to a full set of secondary pitches, probably headlined by a solid slider and changeup. Standing 6'1" with a little bit of funky long arm action, he might fit better in the bullpen, where the velocity could tick up and he could focus on one or two secondary pitches. He's a good strike thrower who could move quickly in that relief role and make an impact sooner rather than later.
Friday, June 26, 2020
2020 Draft Review: Washington Nationals
1-22: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma
2-55: RHP Cole Henry, Louisiana State
2C-71: SS Sammy Infante, Monsignor Pace HS (FL)
3-94: RHP Holden Powell, UCLA
4-123: C Brady Lindsly, Oklahoma
5-153: LHP Mitchell Parker, San Jacinto CC (TX)
The Nationals' draft brand is hard throwing college pitchers with upside, and they nabbed exactly that with their first two picks. They're also usually one to bite early on college relievers, and they did that in the third round with Holden Powell. In all, this draft class had a distinctly Nationals feel to it with four college arms in six picks, and I think they could get some interesting value out of it. My personal favorite pick of the draft was second rounder Cole Henry, though I could see compensation pick Sammy Infante being a real sleeper in this class.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-22: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (my rank: 24)
This is about as on-brand as it gets between a player and a drafting team. Cade Cavalli was a well-known draft prospect at Bixby High School in the Tulsa area in 2017, but he wound up down the road at Oklahoma instead, where he's had a bit of a bumpy ride. Watch him throw a bullpen, though, and you'd be convinced you were seeing a top ten arm. Cavalli has a premium pitcher's body at 6'4", and an exceptionally clean, repeatable delivery. From there, he fires mid 90's fastballs that can climb as high as 98, and he adds two potentially plus breaking balls in a power slider and a downer curveball. He rounds his arsenal off with a solid changeup, and he throws strikes with all four pitches. So how was he available for the Nationals at pick #22? Through three years at Oklahoma, he's an unimpressive 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 114/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. He's consistently been hit harder than his stuff says he should be – earlier in his college career, that was because he tended to fall behind in the count and his stuff played down in hitter's counts. As he's progressed, he's filled up the zone more, but his control (ability to throw strikes) remains ahead of his command (ability to hit spots within the zone), and that's led to some too-hittable pitches over the plate. He's trending in the right direction with his command, and that shot him up boards this spring (he struck out 37 to just five walks in 23.2 innings against a tough schedule), but questions still remain about how his stuff will play in pro ball. He doesn't get much deception in that clean delivery, and his fastball can be almost too true, with better hitters being able to square up velocity when it's that straight. The Nationals will have to work with Cavalli to help keep hitters more off balance, but the upside here is tremendous with a full arsenal of deadly weapons to use against hitters coming from a very durable frame (though he has missed time with back problems and a stress reaction in his arm). He signed for $3.03 million, full slot value for the 22nd pick. Pre-draft profile here.
2-55: RHP Cole Henry, Louisiana State (my rank: 44)
Another perfectly on-brand pick for the Nationals. Cole Henry, like Cavalli, was a well-known prospect at Florence High School in northern Alabama, earning top three rounds consideration in 2018. He ended up at LSU instead, and the numbers have been great in his short time there: 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 95/24 K/BB in 77.1 IP against a tough schedule. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, adding in a power curveball that can look like a true plus pitch with great depth down in the zone. He rounds out his arsenal with a decent changeup, one he has made progress on since high school but which still has a bit further to go. The 6'4" right hander has smoothed out his delivery in college and has been better about repeating it, but there are still times where he loses his arm slot and the Nationals will want to keep him going the trajectory he's on. Right now, like with Cavalli, the control is ahead of the command, but he's trending in the right direction there too. Henry has true impact starter potential due to his size and having two plus pitches, though if he doesn't continue to make the progress he has been making, there is some reliever risk. He would fit well there, but the Nationals are banking on him remaining a starting pitcher, which he definitely has the talent to do. I really like the pick, even if they spent $2 million ($690,000 above slot) to keep him from heading back to Baton Rouge for his junior year. As a draft eligible sophomore who turns 21 in July, he's almost a year younger than Cavalli, who is relatively old for a college junior and turns 22 in August. Pre-draft profile here.
2C-71: SS Sammy Infante, Monsignor Pace HS, FL (my rank: 151)
This pick surprised some, and even though I ranked him 80 spots lower on my list, I'm willing to get on board with it. The Nationals develop this type of player very well – in fact, I actually think they develop young hitters better than pitchers. A product of Monsignor Edward Pace High School in Miami, Sammy Infante has been up and down throughout his prep career, but the shortened spring was definitely an "up" for him. He shows solid power from a nice, leveraged right handed swing, one that produces a lot of force while still staying under control. With added physical development onto his 6'1" frame, you can see Infante hitting for above average power down the line, and while he does show some swing and miss, he was making more consistent contact this spring. Defensively, he'll need to work to stick at shortstop, but he could be above average at third base if he moved over there. Considering that this pick was compensation for losing Anthony Rendon, that would be a nice coincidence if he took over long term there. He's a little old for a high schooler, having turned 19 a few days before I released this article, which does matter. Still, with the upside of a 20 home run bat who can produce solid on-base percentages and net-positive infield defense, the Nationals like what they're getting at the 71st overall pick, and I think he fits in well with the organization. He signed for $1 million, which was $115,800 above slot value.
3-94: RHP Holden Powell, UCLA (my rank: 134)
Judging by the draft ranking, it might appear that I prefer this Holden Powell pick to the Sammy Infante pick. Unfortunately, it doesn't quite work like that, because Infante's upside requires more imagination and I can get behind it with the confidence the Nationals are showing, while Powell's upside is very clear. The UCLA closer is strictly a reliever going forward, though he has quite the track record for the Bruins; since the start of the 2019 season, he has a 1.54 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and an 85/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings, saving 20 games. In 2020 alone, he struck out 20 of the 35 batters he faced and allowed just five to reach base. The 6' righty from the Central Valley town of Visalia throws a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out at 96, and it plays up because he has a little bit of funk in his delivery. The slider is his out pitch, sitting anywhere from the low to mid 80's and playing up because he can really manipulate its shape and spot it. Sometimes, it can be a softer with more depth, and others it can be sharper with more bite, but either way it's intentional. His command has progressed from decent as an underclassman to above average as a junior, at least in the small sample size. It's all a great and enticing package, but I'm very skeptical of college relievers. You're supposedly buying them for the floor, for the safe bet/right now product they provide rather than the upside, but from Tyler Jay to Zack Burdi to Durbin Feltman, that "safe bet" has proven to be a little bit of an illusion. I'd much prefer to target starters later in the draft, throw them in the bullpen, and see if they take a step forward. That said, Powell does have a very good right-now product, and even though he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until September, he could move relatively quickly. He signed for $500,000, which was $118,200 below slot and just about paid for Sammy Infante's over slot bonus.
4-123: C Brady Lindsly, Oklahoma (unranked)
This pick killed three birds with one stone, as it saved the Nationals significant bonus pool space, reunited first round pick Cade Cavalli with his college catcher, and gave the Nationals a nice prospect. The Fort Worth-area native has been a decent hitter for four years at Oklahoma, slashing .275/.360/.420 with ten home runs and a 112/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 games. He's an average hitter that makes pretty consistent contact, adding in a little bit of pop but nothing that will wow anybody. He does work the strike zone pretty well, as you would expect from a catcher. The calling card is his defense, where he is above average and should have no trouble staying behind the plate. He must have gotten a glowing recommendation from Cavalli, and I'd expect that the two work really well together, which should help Cavalli reach his lofty ceiling. Otherwise, Lindsly profiles pretty clearly as a backup catcher, as he'll likely never hit enough to start but his defense could carry him up to a reserve role. He signed for $20,000, saving the Nationals $444,500 in bonus pool space.
5-153: LHP Mitchell Parker, San Jacinto CC (unranked)
A well known name from a pitching staff that also included Nationals 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge and Cubs 2020 fourth rounder Luke Little, Parker has been an absolute force to be reckoned with on the JUCO circuit, going 11-0 with a 1.43 ERA and a 175/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at San Jac. His 64 strikeouts this year not only led all JUCO pitchers, but would have been enough to lead Division I or Division III as well, and enough for second place in Division II just behind Francis Marion's Josh Bobrowski and his 65 strikeouts. The Albuquerque native is a 6'4" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a big, looping curveball with great depth in addition to a solid splitter. His command is average if perhaps a tick below, but his pitches play up due to high spin rates and some interesting arm action where he pauses mid-delivery. Going forward, he'll have to be careful not to show too much of his grip during that pause. There is some projection left in his frame, so you can imagine him adding a tick or two of velocity, which will likely be the difference as to whether he sticks in the rotation or is forced to the bullpen. As with Cavalli, the Nationals actually signed his catcher, Raymond Torres Jr., out of San Jac as well, so that's interesting. It took $100,000 to sign him away from a Kentucky commitment, which was $246,800 below slot.
Undrafted: 1B Jackson Coutts, Rhode Island (unranked)
Among active major leaguers from the Eastern United States, Coutts could have the northernmost hometown of anybody if he makes it that far. Hailing from Orono, Maine, Coutts played college ball some five hours to the south at Rhode Island (imagine heading five hours south to Rhode Island), where he was having a huge breakout year as a junior with four home runs and a .451/.525/.824 slash line over 13 games. He also held his own in the elite Cape Cod League by hitting .309, but his power didn't quite show up there with just four extra base hits (no home runs) in 30 games. Coutts is a big dude at a listed 6'3" and 230 pounds, and as a first baseman only (who could perhaps handle left field if needed), he'll need to tap that power in pro ball. The Nationals like the upside here and are all in on the bat, as he does a great job of keeping his strikeouts down for a power hitter and he could be a valuable platoon guy down the line.
Undrafted: IF Gio Diaz, St. Mary's (unranked)
Diaz, a Northern California native, was off to a hot start this year for St. Mary's College, slashing .396/.442/.417 with just two strikeouts in 13 games. A bit undersized at 5'11", he's more of a slap hitter than anything else, but he struck out just 37 times in 100 career games, showing elite bat to ball skills at minimum. He profiles as a utility infielder because it's unlikely he'll ever get to even average power – he had just 16 extra base hits during his time in Moraga, all doubles.
Undrafted: 2B Brian Klein, Texas Tech (unranked)
Klein comes from the same hometown of Keller, Texas (in the Fort Worth area) as fourth rounder Brady Lindsly, and he joins the Nationals after a very successful career at Texas Tech: ten home runs, .318/.408/.465, 106/102 K/BB in 171 games. He was off to the best start of his career in 2020, slashing .391/.494/.580 in 19 games. The 5'11" infielder won't wow anybody with tools, but he's a very steady player who is a consistent performer on both sides of the ball. That's a pretty clear utility infield profile to me.
Undrafted: C Raymond Torres Jr., San Jacinto CC, TX (unranked)
Torres caught Mitchell Parker at San Jacinto this year, where he was off to a hot start by slashing .444/.528/.667 across 13 games, including two four hit performances. However, according to an article in The Charlotte Observer, Torres does come with some significant makeup questions. He was a potential top five rounds pick at the IMG Academy in Florida, but he left the school amid work ethic questions and was suspended from the Providence High School baseball team shortly after returning to his hometown of Charlotte. Committed to play at LSU, he didn't have the grades to get into the school and wound up at San Jac. Parker has spoken positively about his growth as a player, but questions certainly remain as to whether he can get out of his own way. If he does grow up a little bit, there is significant ceiling here as a big league catcher.
2-55: RHP Cole Henry, Louisiana State
2C-71: SS Sammy Infante, Monsignor Pace HS (FL)
3-94: RHP Holden Powell, UCLA
4-123: C Brady Lindsly, Oklahoma
5-153: LHP Mitchell Parker, San Jacinto CC (TX)
The Nationals' draft brand is hard throwing college pitchers with upside, and they nabbed exactly that with their first two picks. They're also usually one to bite early on college relievers, and they did that in the third round with Holden Powell. In all, this draft class had a distinctly Nationals feel to it with four college arms in six picks, and I think they could get some interesting value out of it. My personal favorite pick of the draft was second rounder Cole Henry, though I could see compensation pick Sammy Infante being a real sleeper in this class.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-22: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (my rank: 24)
This is about as on-brand as it gets between a player and a drafting team. Cade Cavalli was a well-known draft prospect at Bixby High School in the Tulsa area in 2017, but he wound up down the road at Oklahoma instead, where he's had a bit of a bumpy ride. Watch him throw a bullpen, though, and you'd be convinced you were seeing a top ten arm. Cavalli has a premium pitcher's body at 6'4", and an exceptionally clean, repeatable delivery. From there, he fires mid 90's fastballs that can climb as high as 98, and he adds two potentially plus breaking balls in a power slider and a downer curveball. He rounds his arsenal off with a solid changeup, and he throws strikes with all four pitches. So how was he available for the Nationals at pick #22? Through three years at Oklahoma, he's an unimpressive 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 114/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. He's consistently been hit harder than his stuff says he should be – earlier in his college career, that was because he tended to fall behind in the count and his stuff played down in hitter's counts. As he's progressed, he's filled up the zone more, but his control (ability to throw strikes) remains ahead of his command (ability to hit spots within the zone), and that's led to some too-hittable pitches over the plate. He's trending in the right direction with his command, and that shot him up boards this spring (he struck out 37 to just five walks in 23.2 innings against a tough schedule), but questions still remain about how his stuff will play in pro ball. He doesn't get much deception in that clean delivery, and his fastball can be almost too true, with better hitters being able to square up velocity when it's that straight. The Nationals will have to work with Cavalli to help keep hitters more off balance, but the upside here is tremendous with a full arsenal of deadly weapons to use against hitters coming from a very durable frame (though he has missed time with back problems and a stress reaction in his arm). He signed for $3.03 million, full slot value for the 22nd pick. Pre-draft profile here.
2-55: RHP Cole Henry, Louisiana State (my rank: 44)
Another perfectly on-brand pick for the Nationals. Cole Henry, like Cavalli, was a well-known prospect at Florence High School in northern Alabama, earning top three rounds consideration in 2018. He ended up at LSU instead, and the numbers have been great in his short time there: 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 95/24 K/BB in 77.1 IP against a tough schedule. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, adding in a power curveball that can look like a true plus pitch with great depth down in the zone. He rounds out his arsenal with a decent changeup, one he has made progress on since high school but which still has a bit further to go. The 6'4" right hander has smoothed out his delivery in college and has been better about repeating it, but there are still times where he loses his arm slot and the Nationals will want to keep him going the trajectory he's on. Right now, like with Cavalli, the control is ahead of the command, but he's trending in the right direction there too. Henry has true impact starter potential due to his size and having two plus pitches, though if he doesn't continue to make the progress he has been making, there is some reliever risk. He would fit well there, but the Nationals are banking on him remaining a starting pitcher, which he definitely has the talent to do. I really like the pick, even if they spent $2 million ($690,000 above slot) to keep him from heading back to Baton Rouge for his junior year. As a draft eligible sophomore who turns 21 in July, he's almost a year younger than Cavalli, who is relatively old for a college junior and turns 22 in August. Pre-draft profile here.
2C-71: SS Sammy Infante, Monsignor Pace HS, FL (my rank: 151)
This pick surprised some, and even though I ranked him 80 spots lower on my list, I'm willing to get on board with it. The Nationals develop this type of player very well – in fact, I actually think they develop young hitters better than pitchers. A product of Monsignor Edward Pace High School in Miami, Sammy Infante has been up and down throughout his prep career, but the shortened spring was definitely an "up" for him. He shows solid power from a nice, leveraged right handed swing, one that produces a lot of force while still staying under control. With added physical development onto his 6'1" frame, you can see Infante hitting for above average power down the line, and while he does show some swing and miss, he was making more consistent contact this spring. Defensively, he'll need to work to stick at shortstop, but he could be above average at third base if he moved over there. Considering that this pick was compensation for losing Anthony Rendon, that would be a nice coincidence if he took over long term there. He's a little old for a high schooler, having turned 19 a few days before I released this article, which does matter. Still, with the upside of a 20 home run bat who can produce solid on-base percentages and net-positive infield defense, the Nationals like what they're getting at the 71st overall pick, and I think he fits in well with the organization. He signed for $1 million, which was $115,800 above slot value.
3-94: RHP Holden Powell, UCLA (my rank: 134)
Judging by the draft ranking, it might appear that I prefer this Holden Powell pick to the Sammy Infante pick. Unfortunately, it doesn't quite work like that, because Infante's upside requires more imagination and I can get behind it with the confidence the Nationals are showing, while Powell's upside is very clear. The UCLA closer is strictly a reliever going forward, though he has quite the track record for the Bruins; since the start of the 2019 season, he has a 1.54 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and an 85/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings, saving 20 games. In 2020 alone, he struck out 20 of the 35 batters he faced and allowed just five to reach base. The 6' righty from the Central Valley town of Visalia throws a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out at 96, and it plays up because he has a little bit of funk in his delivery. The slider is his out pitch, sitting anywhere from the low to mid 80's and playing up because he can really manipulate its shape and spot it. Sometimes, it can be a softer with more depth, and others it can be sharper with more bite, but either way it's intentional. His command has progressed from decent as an underclassman to above average as a junior, at least in the small sample size. It's all a great and enticing package, but I'm very skeptical of college relievers. You're supposedly buying them for the floor, for the safe bet/right now product they provide rather than the upside, but from Tyler Jay to Zack Burdi to Durbin Feltman, that "safe bet" has proven to be a little bit of an illusion. I'd much prefer to target starters later in the draft, throw them in the bullpen, and see if they take a step forward. That said, Powell does have a very good right-now product, and even though he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until September, he could move relatively quickly. He signed for $500,000, which was $118,200 below slot and just about paid for Sammy Infante's over slot bonus.
4-123: C Brady Lindsly, Oklahoma (unranked)
This pick killed three birds with one stone, as it saved the Nationals significant bonus pool space, reunited first round pick Cade Cavalli with his college catcher, and gave the Nationals a nice prospect. The Fort Worth-area native has been a decent hitter for four years at Oklahoma, slashing .275/.360/.420 with ten home runs and a 112/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 games. He's an average hitter that makes pretty consistent contact, adding in a little bit of pop but nothing that will wow anybody. He does work the strike zone pretty well, as you would expect from a catcher. The calling card is his defense, where he is above average and should have no trouble staying behind the plate. He must have gotten a glowing recommendation from Cavalli, and I'd expect that the two work really well together, which should help Cavalli reach his lofty ceiling. Otherwise, Lindsly profiles pretty clearly as a backup catcher, as he'll likely never hit enough to start but his defense could carry him up to a reserve role. He signed for $20,000, saving the Nationals $444,500 in bonus pool space.
5-153: LHP Mitchell Parker, San Jacinto CC (unranked)
A well known name from a pitching staff that also included Nationals 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge and Cubs 2020 fourth rounder Luke Little, Parker has been an absolute force to be reckoned with on the JUCO circuit, going 11-0 with a 1.43 ERA and a 175/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at San Jac. His 64 strikeouts this year not only led all JUCO pitchers, but would have been enough to lead Division I or Division III as well, and enough for second place in Division II just behind Francis Marion's Josh Bobrowski and his 65 strikeouts. The Albuquerque native is a 6'4" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a big, looping curveball with great depth in addition to a solid splitter. His command is average if perhaps a tick below, but his pitches play up due to high spin rates and some interesting arm action where he pauses mid-delivery. Going forward, he'll have to be careful not to show too much of his grip during that pause. There is some projection left in his frame, so you can imagine him adding a tick or two of velocity, which will likely be the difference as to whether he sticks in the rotation or is forced to the bullpen. As with Cavalli, the Nationals actually signed his catcher, Raymond Torres Jr., out of San Jac as well, so that's interesting. It took $100,000 to sign him away from a Kentucky commitment, which was $246,800 below slot.
Undrafted: 1B Jackson Coutts, Rhode Island (unranked)
Among active major leaguers from the Eastern United States, Coutts could have the northernmost hometown of anybody if he makes it that far. Hailing from Orono, Maine, Coutts played college ball some five hours to the south at Rhode Island (imagine heading five hours south to Rhode Island), where he was having a huge breakout year as a junior with four home runs and a .451/.525/.824 slash line over 13 games. He also held his own in the elite Cape Cod League by hitting .309, but his power didn't quite show up there with just four extra base hits (no home runs) in 30 games. Coutts is a big dude at a listed 6'3" and 230 pounds, and as a first baseman only (who could perhaps handle left field if needed), he'll need to tap that power in pro ball. The Nationals like the upside here and are all in on the bat, as he does a great job of keeping his strikeouts down for a power hitter and he could be a valuable platoon guy down the line.
Undrafted: IF Gio Diaz, St. Mary's (unranked)
Diaz, a Northern California native, was off to a hot start this year for St. Mary's College, slashing .396/.442/.417 with just two strikeouts in 13 games. A bit undersized at 5'11", he's more of a slap hitter than anything else, but he struck out just 37 times in 100 career games, showing elite bat to ball skills at minimum. He profiles as a utility infielder because it's unlikely he'll ever get to even average power – he had just 16 extra base hits during his time in Moraga, all doubles.
Undrafted: 2B Brian Klein, Texas Tech (unranked)
Klein comes from the same hometown of Keller, Texas (in the Fort Worth area) as fourth rounder Brady Lindsly, and he joins the Nationals after a very successful career at Texas Tech: ten home runs, .318/.408/.465, 106/102 K/BB in 171 games. He was off to the best start of his career in 2020, slashing .391/.494/.580 in 19 games. The 5'11" infielder won't wow anybody with tools, but he's a very steady player who is a consistent performer on both sides of the ball. That's a pretty clear utility infield profile to me.
Undrafted: C Raymond Torres Jr., San Jacinto CC, TX (unranked)
Torres caught Mitchell Parker at San Jacinto this year, where he was off to a hot start by slashing .444/.528/.667 across 13 games, including two four hit performances. However, according to an article in The Charlotte Observer, Torres does come with some significant makeup questions. He was a potential top five rounds pick at the IMG Academy in Florida, but he left the school amid work ethic questions and was suspended from the Providence High School baseball team shortly after returning to his hometown of Charlotte. Committed to play at LSU, he didn't have the grades to get into the school and wound up at San Jac. Parker has spoken positively about his growth as a player, but questions certainly remain as to whether he can get out of his own way. If he does grow up a little bit, there is significant ceiling here as a big league catcher.
Wednesday, June 24, 2020
2020 Draft Review: Cleveland Indians
1-23: SS Carson Tucker, Mountain Pointe HS (AZ)
CBA-36: RHP Tanner Burns, Auburn
2-56: LHP Logan Allen, Florida International
3-95: OF Petey Halpin, Mira Costa HS (CA)
4-124: SS Milan Tolentino, Santa Margarita HS (CA)
5-154: RHP Mason Hickman, Vanderbilt
The Indians have a brand and as usual, they stuck to it. They value youth, and in turn they picked up three high school bats, one of which (Petey Halpin) only turned 18 in May. They also like hit tools and guys who can stay up the middle, and their three high schoolers certainly have those traits as some of the better pure hitters in the class projected for SS, CF, and SS. They usually go the college route to find their arms, valuing track record on that side, and it's hard to find a much better combined track record than Tanner Burns (14-9, 2.86 career), Logan Allen (3.33 career), and Mason Hickman (11-0, 1.79 over last two seasons). Overall, I think they did pretty well with their six selections, with no picks popping out to me as total steals but all of them looking anywhere from solid to very good.
Full index of team profiles here
1-23: SS Carson Tucker, Mountain Pointe HS, AZ (my rank: 55)
The younger brother of Pirates infielder Cole Tucker, Carson has been a rising name all spring. He showed good feel for the game and sprayed around a lot of line drives last summer on the showcase circuit, but he lacked the physicality most teams were looking for and most in the industry wanted to see him head to Texas and get stronger. Well, that happened over the winter, and he came out in the spring bigger, faster, and stronger. The skinny 5'11" kid from Phoenix is now a 6'2" athlete, and this spring he was driving baseballs with much more authority around the field. Instead of line drive singles to all fields, scouts saw deep drives that turned into doubles, triples, and even home runs, and there is no reason to think he can't keep getting better. He has a good head on his shoulders as a kid with great feel for the game, and he plays a very solid shortstop. He likely won't be a Gold Glover out there, but he shows the instincts and athleticism to consistently make plays. 23 might have been a bit of a surprise for some people, but the Indians clearly buy into the trajectory and like where he's going. He projects for average power, perhaps 15-20 home runs per season, with good on-base percentages. If he does stick at shortstop, that's a very favorable offensive outlook, and he might be able to add more power and poke up above 20 home runs more often than not. Slot value is $2.93 million, and it remains to be seen how much it takes to buy him out of his Texas commitment. If he gets to Cleveland while his brother is still in Pittsburgh, the two cities are just two hours apart on Interstate 76. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-36: RHP Tanner Burns, Auburn (my rank: 27)
Pitchers are unpredictable creatures, but sometimes, they develop exactly as expected. Burns found himself in the middle of top 50 conversation as a polished arm coming out of high school in Decatur, Alabama in 2017, but a firm commitment to Auburn meant he fell in the draft and didn't sign. He has performed since the day he stepped on campus, with the polish he showed as a high schooler coming in handy in college, putting together one of the most consistent track records of any 2020 arm. In three years for the Tigers, Burns is 14-9 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 210/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 188.2 innings, and he's gotten better and better each year (ERA dropped from 3.01 to 2.82 to 2.42). Though he's on the smaller side at six feet tall, he's dominated the SEC with a power fastball in the low to mid 90's and a power curve that he can locate to both sides of the plate. The curve can be inconsistent and can get slurvy at times, earning more 55 grades than 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale, but it's a true 60 at its best. There's a changeup as well, but he hasn't needed it as much and it needs further refinement. Burns' strike throwing ability and strong lower half portend to an innings eating profile even if he is a bit shorter and stockier, and he has the one-two punch in that fastball and curveball to be more than just a #4/#5 starter. That seems to be his floor, with a ceiling as a #3 starter or, if we're really lucky, even a #2. The track record and stuff gives him a great combination of floor and ceiling outside the first round, and Cleveland is a great fit as an organization. Slot value is $2.05 million, which seems reasonable to me. Pre-draft profile here.
2-56: LHP Logan Allen, Florida International (my rank: 51)
The Indians already have a fastball/changeup lefty from Florida named Logan Allen, so why not make it two? This new Logan Allen, much like previous pick Tanner Burns, was a well-known prospect in the 2017 draft that headed to school instead of sign. Also like Burns, he's performed from day one. Through three years at FIU, he has a 3.33 ERA and a 246/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 183.2 innings, like Burns getting better and better each year (ERA dropped from 3.89 to 3.11 to 2.45). He also dominated in the elite Cape Cod League, where he struck out 24 and walked just three over 15 shutout innings. This sustained dominance has come despite not having the world's loudest stuff, as he sits just 91-92 with his fastball. His curveball has big, two plane break, but it can get loopy and lacks the hard, late bite that you'd like to see in a pitch like that. His best pitch is a plus changeup that disappears at the last second, one which he tunnels extremely well off his fastball to miss bats consistently. Allen is a plus strike thrower who locates his three pitches very well, and his ability to attack the zone makes everything play up consistently. At first glance, his stuff might look a little light for pro ball, but his sustained dominance (including the Cape Cod League) leads me to think you really shouldn't bet against him. Especially in this Indians system, that loves polished arms, he could do really well with a #3 starter ceiling. Slot value is $1.28 million. Pre-draft profile here.
3-95: OF Petey Halpin, Mira Costa HS, CA (my rank: 80)
On brand, yet again. Petey Halpin grew up in the Silicon Valley area, but moved down to the Los Angeles area for his senior year of high school. He's a hit over power outfielder with some projection and a lot of positive trajectory, one who should thrive in this system. A lean kid at six feet tall, he has a very fluid swing from the left side with nice whip and leverage, and he uses it to make consistent hard contact with some sneaky power. Depending on how much he bulks up as he grows into his frame, he could get to above average power eventually, but that could come at the expense of his above average to plus speed. Right now, he uses his good speed well and could be an above average defender in center field, but if he slows down at all, he might be more of an average defender down the road. Regardless, the hit tool plays and he should get to at least double digit home run power, so it might just be a matter of which direction the Indians want to develop him in – speedy center field type, or all-around impact hitter that slows down to about average speed as he develops. Regardless, it's a fun, broad set of skills to project on, and since he didn't turn 18 until May, he's relatively young for the class. Slot value is $610,800, though I imagine it might take a little bit more to woo him away from a Texas commitment. Pre-draft profile here.
4-124: SS Milan Tolentino, Santa Margarita HS, CA (my rank: 116)
For their next pick, the Indians went back to the Southern California high school ranks, picking Milan Tolentino out of high school in Orange County. The son of ex-major leaguer and current Angels broadcaster Jose Tolentino, Milan is yet another hit over power kid. He makes very consistent contact from the left side of the plate, peppering the ball around the field with great feel for finding the barrel. However, he has very limited present power and doesn't project to add a ton, using more of a slap-heavy approach than really trying to drive the ball with authority. That works for some hitters, though with Tolentino possessing just average speed, the Indians need to be confident he can not only just make consistent contact, but find the barrel consistently. Regardless, they're buying the defense here, as Tolentino projects to be an above average shortstop due to his plus instincts and feel for the game. That helps him make up for his lack of true foot speed, and the feel for the game should also help him start to hit for more impact as he gets stronger. It's probably a utility infield profile, but with some moderate upside here in the fourth round. Slot value is $460,000, but as with Halpin, it might take a little more to sign him away from a UCLA commitment.
5-154: RHP Mason Hickman, Vanderbilt (unranked)
The Indians finished off with another polished college arm, with Hickman bringing a great track record despite a lack of loud stuff. Since the start of the 2019 season, Hickman is 11-0 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 155/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings – exceptional numbers with a team that faces a very tough SEC schedule. However, the numbers are slightly less impressive upon further inspection, as Hickman actually served as the team's Tuesday starter in 2019, meaning in that span, he pitched a grand total of...four innings in actual SEC play. Still, the profile is interesting in and of itself. He's a huge, 6'6" right hander who grew up in the Nashville area, coming in with an upper 80's fastball that occasionally creeps above 90, a curve with good depth, a slider, and a changeup. None of his offerings are much better than average, and none will function as an out pitch in pro ball. The good news is that he possesses some of the best command in the 2020 class, spotting his pitches consistently to all four quadrants of the zone and keeping hitters off balance more often than not. He'll need to lean on that ability to mix and locate pitches in pro ball, because any mistakes could prove very costly given how light his stuff is. While he doesn't project to add a ton of velocity, the Indians do really well with these polished college arms, and just a little added crispness to his stuff could make him a steal at the back of the draft. If he doesn't take that step forward, though, I'm very worried about his ability to keep pro hitters fooled consistently enough. Slot value is $343,400, and I could imagine him taking a slight discount.
Undrafted: C Joe Donovan, Michigan (unranked)
After the Tigers drafted Ohio State catcher and Massillon native Dillon Dingler to open the second round, the Indians hit back by signing the catcher from That Team Up North in the undrafted free agent market. Joe Donovan, a native of the Chicago area, was one of the better defensive catchers in college baseball, holding down the starting spot on the Michigan team that made it to the College World Series in 2019. Unfortunately, for all the praise he gets behind the plate, he hasn't hit much, with just a .228/.316/.388 line, ten home runs, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games with the Wolverines. He's shown flashes of offensive impact at times, including a nice Cape performance two summers ago and nine home runs as a sophomore in 2019, but ultimately he's made too much weak contact and loses the strike zone just enough to where he doesn't profile as much more than a backup catcher. Still, that defense made him a prime target in the UDFA market, and at $20,000 the Indians got themselves a real bargain.
Other undrafted signings:
LHP Jaime Arias, Fresno State: 2-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB in 24 IP
RHP Cade Smith, Hawaii: 1-0, 4.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 18.1 IP
SS Alonzo Richardson, Helix HS, CA (signed away from San Diego State commitment)
CBA-36: RHP Tanner Burns, Auburn
2-56: LHP Logan Allen, Florida International
3-95: OF Petey Halpin, Mira Costa HS (CA)
4-124: SS Milan Tolentino, Santa Margarita HS (CA)
5-154: RHP Mason Hickman, Vanderbilt
The Indians have a brand and as usual, they stuck to it. They value youth, and in turn they picked up three high school bats, one of which (Petey Halpin) only turned 18 in May. They also like hit tools and guys who can stay up the middle, and their three high schoolers certainly have those traits as some of the better pure hitters in the class projected for SS, CF, and SS. They usually go the college route to find their arms, valuing track record on that side, and it's hard to find a much better combined track record than Tanner Burns (14-9, 2.86 career), Logan Allen (3.33 career), and Mason Hickman (11-0, 1.79 over last two seasons). Overall, I think they did pretty well with their six selections, with no picks popping out to me as total steals but all of them looking anywhere from solid to very good.
Full index of team profiles here
1-23: SS Carson Tucker, Mountain Pointe HS, AZ (my rank: 55)
The younger brother of Pirates infielder Cole Tucker, Carson has been a rising name all spring. He showed good feel for the game and sprayed around a lot of line drives last summer on the showcase circuit, but he lacked the physicality most teams were looking for and most in the industry wanted to see him head to Texas and get stronger. Well, that happened over the winter, and he came out in the spring bigger, faster, and stronger. The skinny 5'11" kid from Phoenix is now a 6'2" athlete, and this spring he was driving baseballs with much more authority around the field. Instead of line drive singles to all fields, scouts saw deep drives that turned into doubles, triples, and even home runs, and there is no reason to think he can't keep getting better. He has a good head on his shoulders as a kid with great feel for the game, and he plays a very solid shortstop. He likely won't be a Gold Glover out there, but he shows the instincts and athleticism to consistently make plays. 23 might have been a bit of a surprise for some people, but the Indians clearly buy into the trajectory and like where he's going. He projects for average power, perhaps 15-20 home runs per season, with good on-base percentages. If he does stick at shortstop, that's a very favorable offensive outlook, and he might be able to add more power and poke up above 20 home runs more often than not. Slot value is $2.93 million, and it remains to be seen how much it takes to buy him out of his Texas commitment. If he gets to Cleveland while his brother is still in Pittsburgh, the two cities are just two hours apart on Interstate 76. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-36: RHP Tanner Burns, Auburn (my rank: 27)
Pitchers are unpredictable creatures, but sometimes, they develop exactly as expected. Burns found himself in the middle of top 50 conversation as a polished arm coming out of high school in Decatur, Alabama in 2017, but a firm commitment to Auburn meant he fell in the draft and didn't sign. He has performed since the day he stepped on campus, with the polish he showed as a high schooler coming in handy in college, putting together one of the most consistent track records of any 2020 arm. In three years for the Tigers, Burns is 14-9 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 210/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 188.2 innings, and he's gotten better and better each year (ERA dropped from 3.01 to 2.82 to 2.42). Though he's on the smaller side at six feet tall, he's dominated the SEC with a power fastball in the low to mid 90's and a power curve that he can locate to both sides of the plate. The curve can be inconsistent and can get slurvy at times, earning more 55 grades than 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale, but it's a true 60 at its best. There's a changeup as well, but he hasn't needed it as much and it needs further refinement. Burns' strike throwing ability and strong lower half portend to an innings eating profile even if he is a bit shorter and stockier, and he has the one-two punch in that fastball and curveball to be more than just a #4/#5 starter. That seems to be his floor, with a ceiling as a #3 starter or, if we're really lucky, even a #2. The track record and stuff gives him a great combination of floor and ceiling outside the first round, and Cleveland is a great fit as an organization. Slot value is $2.05 million, which seems reasonable to me. Pre-draft profile here.
2-56: LHP Logan Allen, Florida International (my rank: 51)
The Indians already have a fastball/changeup lefty from Florida named Logan Allen, so why not make it two? This new Logan Allen, much like previous pick Tanner Burns, was a well-known prospect in the 2017 draft that headed to school instead of sign. Also like Burns, he's performed from day one. Through three years at FIU, he has a 3.33 ERA and a 246/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 183.2 innings, like Burns getting better and better each year (ERA dropped from 3.89 to 3.11 to 2.45). He also dominated in the elite Cape Cod League, where he struck out 24 and walked just three over 15 shutout innings. This sustained dominance has come despite not having the world's loudest stuff, as he sits just 91-92 with his fastball. His curveball has big, two plane break, but it can get loopy and lacks the hard, late bite that you'd like to see in a pitch like that. His best pitch is a plus changeup that disappears at the last second, one which he tunnels extremely well off his fastball to miss bats consistently. Allen is a plus strike thrower who locates his three pitches very well, and his ability to attack the zone makes everything play up consistently. At first glance, his stuff might look a little light for pro ball, but his sustained dominance (including the Cape Cod League) leads me to think you really shouldn't bet against him. Especially in this Indians system, that loves polished arms, he could do really well with a #3 starter ceiling. Slot value is $1.28 million. Pre-draft profile here.
3-95: OF Petey Halpin, Mira Costa HS, CA (my rank: 80)
On brand, yet again. Petey Halpin grew up in the Silicon Valley area, but moved down to the Los Angeles area for his senior year of high school. He's a hit over power outfielder with some projection and a lot of positive trajectory, one who should thrive in this system. A lean kid at six feet tall, he has a very fluid swing from the left side with nice whip and leverage, and he uses it to make consistent hard contact with some sneaky power. Depending on how much he bulks up as he grows into his frame, he could get to above average power eventually, but that could come at the expense of his above average to plus speed. Right now, he uses his good speed well and could be an above average defender in center field, but if he slows down at all, he might be more of an average defender down the road. Regardless, the hit tool plays and he should get to at least double digit home run power, so it might just be a matter of which direction the Indians want to develop him in – speedy center field type, or all-around impact hitter that slows down to about average speed as he develops. Regardless, it's a fun, broad set of skills to project on, and since he didn't turn 18 until May, he's relatively young for the class. Slot value is $610,800, though I imagine it might take a little bit more to woo him away from a Texas commitment. Pre-draft profile here.
4-124: SS Milan Tolentino, Santa Margarita HS, CA (my rank: 116)
For their next pick, the Indians went back to the Southern California high school ranks, picking Milan Tolentino out of high school in Orange County. The son of ex-major leaguer and current Angels broadcaster Jose Tolentino, Milan is yet another hit over power kid. He makes very consistent contact from the left side of the plate, peppering the ball around the field with great feel for finding the barrel. However, he has very limited present power and doesn't project to add a ton, using more of a slap-heavy approach than really trying to drive the ball with authority. That works for some hitters, though with Tolentino possessing just average speed, the Indians need to be confident he can not only just make consistent contact, but find the barrel consistently. Regardless, they're buying the defense here, as Tolentino projects to be an above average shortstop due to his plus instincts and feel for the game. That helps him make up for his lack of true foot speed, and the feel for the game should also help him start to hit for more impact as he gets stronger. It's probably a utility infield profile, but with some moderate upside here in the fourth round. Slot value is $460,000, but as with Halpin, it might take a little more to sign him away from a UCLA commitment.
5-154: RHP Mason Hickman, Vanderbilt (unranked)
The Indians finished off with another polished college arm, with Hickman bringing a great track record despite a lack of loud stuff. Since the start of the 2019 season, Hickman is 11-0 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 155/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings – exceptional numbers with a team that faces a very tough SEC schedule. However, the numbers are slightly less impressive upon further inspection, as Hickman actually served as the team's Tuesday starter in 2019, meaning in that span, he pitched a grand total of...four innings in actual SEC play. Still, the profile is interesting in and of itself. He's a huge, 6'6" right hander who grew up in the Nashville area, coming in with an upper 80's fastball that occasionally creeps above 90, a curve with good depth, a slider, and a changeup. None of his offerings are much better than average, and none will function as an out pitch in pro ball. The good news is that he possesses some of the best command in the 2020 class, spotting his pitches consistently to all four quadrants of the zone and keeping hitters off balance more often than not. He'll need to lean on that ability to mix and locate pitches in pro ball, because any mistakes could prove very costly given how light his stuff is. While he doesn't project to add a ton of velocity, the Indians do really well with these polished college arms, and just a little added crispness to his stuff could make him a steal at the back of the draft. If he doesn't take that step forward, though, I'm very worried about his ability to keep pro hitters fooled consistently enough. Slot value is $343,400, and I could imagine him taking a slight discount.
Undrafted: C Joe Donovan, Michigan (unranked)
After the Tigers drafted Ohio State catcher and Massillon native Dillon Dingler to open the second round, the Indians hit back by signing the catcher from That Team Up North in the undrafted free agent market. Joe Donovan, a native of the Chicago area, was one of the better defensive catchers in college baseball, holding down the starting spot on the Michigan team that made it to the College World Series in 2019. Unfortunately, for all the praise he gets behind the plate, he hasn't hit much, with just a .228/.316/.388 line, ten home runs, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games with the Wolverines. He's shown flashes of offensive impact at times, including a nice Cape performance two summers ago and nine home runs as a sophomore in 2019, but ultimately he's made too much weak contact and loses the strike zone just enough to where he doesn't profile as much more than a backup catcher. Still, that defense made him a prime target in the UDFA market, and at $20,000 the Indians got themselves a real bargain.
Other undrafted signings:
LHP Jaime Arias, Fresno State: 2-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB in 24 IP
RHP Cade Smith, Hawaii: 1-0, 4.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 18.1 IP
SS Alonzo Richardson, Helix HS, CA (signed away from San Diego State commitment)
Saturday, June 20, 2020
2020 Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays
1-24: RHP Nick Bitsko, Central Bucks East HS (PA)
CBA-37: SS Alika Williams, Arizona State
2-57: LHP Ian Seymour, Virginia Tech
3-96: RHP Hunter Barnhart, St. Joseph HS (CA)
4-125: SS Tanner Murray, UC Davis
5-155: RHP Jeff Hakanson, Central Florida
The best farm system in baseball got even richer in this draft, grabbing two of the top high school pitchers in the country while still getting a diverse array of talent from the college ranks to save money. I'm a really big fan of this class, and honestly I'm not sure how you could not be, and they even managed to wreck a division rival's plans by plucking Nick Bitsko away from them. And they grabbed a hometown kid from Tampa with their last pick. All in all, with just six picks, they covered all the bases they needed to. Good work.
Full index of team profiles here
1-24: RHP Nick Bitsko, Central Bucks East HS, PA (my rank: 18)
This was one of the most interesting picks in the draft, and definitely in a good way. By some accounts the top high school arm in the class (and no worse than the #3 arm by any account), Bitsko was originally slated to be a member of the 2021 class, but reclassified to 2020 over the winter because he would have turned 19 in June 2021. This way, he'll only turn 18 right after draft day, making him relatively young for the class. Bitsko comes from the Philadelphia area and didn't get to pitch at all in game action this year, but he lit up the Rapsodo machines in bullpen work and scouts are confident he can pitch. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched as high as 99, showing very good spin rates that make it really jump on hitters. His curveball is another plus pitch, a high spin hammer with both depth and power. Lastly, he adds in a changeup, but it's behind the other two pitches and will need to be developed. He has a durable 6'4" frame and is a very good strike thrower for his age, and everything comes from a clean delivery, pointing to a very good chance to stick in the rotation. While all high school pitchers carry significant risk, Bitsko is on the safer side within the demographic and comes with ace upside. It looked like the Orioles were eying him with pick #30 after saving money on Heston Kjerstad at #2, but the Rays swooped in at #24. While slot value is $2.83 million, it will likely require significantly more than that to keep Bitsko from following through on his Virginia commitment. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-37: SS Alika Williams, Arizona State (my rank: 49)
This pick wasn't as exciting as the Bitsko pick, but it's definitely a value selection as a money saver that adds a solid player as well. He's a glove-first guy who is as natural a defender at shortstop as it gets, showing plus instincts and great coordination that enables him to get to pretty much anything hit to his side of second base. At the plate, he has shown a productive bat in college, but he doesn't have a ton of upside. He hit .333/.429/.474 with four home runs as a sophomore, but that dropped to .250/.359/.344 this year. He shows plus bat to ball abilities, striking out just 49 times in 129 career games at Arizona State, making consistent line drive contact to all fields. However, there isn't a ton of power present, and he doesn't project to add much, so he'll always be a contact hitter. That limits his ceiling, though with his plus defense at shortstop, getting on base just enough could lead to a starting job down the road. I see him more as a utility infielder than a true every day guy, especially with Wander Franco covering shortstop. If anybody is going to push Franco off shortstop, though, Williams would be the guy to do it. Slot value was $2 million, but Williams signed for $1.85 million, saving the Rays $150,000 towards Nick Bitsko. Pre-draft profile here.
2-57: LHP Ian Seymour, Virginia Tech (my rank: 71)
The highest draft selection from Virginia Tech since Joe Saunders went twelfth overall to the Angels in 2002, Seymour has been rising quickly over the past calendar year. He was more of a junkballer as an underclassman, but he went to the Cape over the summer and added power to his fastball, sitting in the low 90's and posting a 2.48 ERA and a sharp 39/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. He adds a plus changeup with exceptional fade in addition to an average slider, and everything plays up because the funk in his delivery enables him to hide the ball really well. That made him mildly successful early in his career, but now that he's touching 94 with that fastball, he's a legitimate starting pitching prospect. He was off to a really strong start in 2020, holding that velocity and putting up a 2.21 ERA and 40/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings, and he struck out 14 against Georgia Tech in his final start. There is some reliever risk due to his size (six foot even) and that funky delivery, but he's been trending up quickly enough that h e has a really good shot to stick in the rotation and the Rays certainly think so. With his solid command that enables him to tunnel his pitches off each other, in addition to how tough it can be to pick the ball up out of his hand, his stuff plays up significantly. I definitely like this pick for the Rays, especially if they end up saving money off of his $1.24 million slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-96: RHP Hunter Barnhart, St. Joseph HS, CA (my rank: 53)
This is another great pick for the Rays. In a lot of ways, Hunter Barnhart is kind of Nick Bitsko-lite. A standout quarterback at Paso Robles High School in California, he intrigued scouts with his pitchability and breaking ball but his upper 80's fastball was a little light. However, after transferring to St. Joseph High School down in Santa Maria, he came out this spring firing in the low 90's, and suddenly he's a much more interesting prospect. In addition to that low 90's fastball, he throws a big curveball with plus depth, and it should continue to function as an out pitch in pro ball. He doesn't have much of a changeup at this point, but instead, he fills up the strike zone extremely well and projects for plus command down the line. With a durable 6'2" frame, he brings a lot of starter's traits to the table, and comes with less risk than the typical high school arm. Aside from the ever-present injury risk, all he really needs to do is develop a changeup and keep hitting his spots like he does, and he has a floor of a back end starter if he does. He signed for $585,000, which was $19,800 below slot, giving the Rays fantastic value at the back of the top 100. Pre-draft profile here.
4-125: SS Tanner Murray, UC Davis (unranked)
Murray is an interesting pick for the Rays coming out of UC Davis, one of the better line drive hitters in college baseball. He's been as consistent as they come for three years with the Aggies, slashing .343/.394/.469 with three home runs and a 46/32 strikeout to walk ratio across 115 games, topping out with a .364 average in 2019. He employs a simple, line drive stroke that consistently peppers baseballs over the heads of infielders and into gaps, though he doesn't have much present over the fence power and doesn't really have the speed to profile for a ton of doubles and triples. He hit just .221/.278/.336 in 37 games on the Cape, furthering questions about how much impact he'll hit for, but the track record over at school is as consistent as they come. He's also steadily been hitting for more and more power throughout his college career, but it still ain't much. With a fairly projectable 6'2" frame, though, he could probably get close to average power if he and the Rays want to develop that way as a hitter. Murray can play pretty decent shortstop, but with the depth of middle infielders in the Rays system, he'll most likely be outplayed at that position by guys like Alika Williams and Wander Franco. The ultimate projection is probably a middle infielder here. Slot value is $455,600, though I imagine Murray might take a slight discount.
5-155: RHP Jeff Hakanson, Central Florida (unranked)
The I-4 corridor is absolutely brimming with talent, so it would be surprised if the Rays didn't end up with a hometown kid. Jeff Hakanson attended Jesuit High School in Tampa, then headed up I-4 to UCF for college. He's been an absolute strikeout machine for the Knights, striking out 26 in 14.2 innings as a freshman, 52 in 26.2 innings as a sophomore, and an incredible 20 in 8.1 innings as a junior. For those keeping track, that was 20 out of 28 batters he faced in 2020 and 98 strikeouts in 49.2 innings overall. His best pitch is easily his mid 90's fastball, a high spin pitch that is extremely difficult to square up coming from his long arm action. He has a solid slider as well that's an above average pitch, but with Hakanson, the fastball is the true weapon that nobody has been able to touch. The command is average and he'll probably need to sharpen that slider a little bit more going forward if he wants to be anything more than a middle reliever, but he should move pretty quickly and he has closer – or opener – upside down the road. He signed for $340,000, right at slot value.
Undrafted: The Rays are yet to sign any undrafted free agents.
CBA-37: SS Alika Williams, Arizona State
2-57: LHP Ian Seymour, Virginia Tech
3-96: RHP Hunter Barnhart, St. Joseph HS (CA)
4-125: SS Tanner Murray, UC Davis
5-155: RHP Jeff Hakanson, Central Florida
The best farm system in baseball got even richer in this draft, grabbing two of the top high school pitchers in the country while still getting a diverse array of talent from the college ranks to save money. I'm a really big fan of this class, and honestly I'm not sure how you could not be, and they even managed to wreck a division rival's plans by plucking Nick Bitsko away from them. And they grabbed a hometown kid from Tampa with their last pick. All in all, with just six picks, they covered all the bases they needed to. Good work.
Full index of team profiles here
1-24: RHP Nick Bitsko, Central Bucks East HS, PA (my rank: 18)
This was one of the most interesting picks in the draft, and definitely in a good way. By some accounts the top high school arm in the class (and no worse than the #3 arm by any account), Bitsko was originally slated to be a member of the 2021 class, but reclassified to 2020 over the winter because he would have turned 19 in June 2021. This way, he'll only turn 18 right after draft day, making him relatively young for the class. Bitsko comes from the Philadelphia area and didn't get to pitch at all in game action this year, but he lit up the Rapsodo machines in bullpen work and scouts are confident he can pitch. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched as high as 99, showing very good spin rates that make it really jump on hitters. His curveball is another plus pitch, a high spin hammer with both depth and power. Lastly, he adds in a changeup, but it's behind the other two pitches and will need to be developed. He has a durable 6'4" frame and is a very good strike thrower for his age, and everything comes from a clean delivery, pointing to a very good chance to stick in the rotation. While all high school pitchers carry significant risk, Bitsko is on the safer side within the demographic and comes with ace upside. It looked like the Orioles were eying him with pick #30 after saving money on Heston Kjerstad at #2, but the Rays swooped in at #24. While slot value is $2.83 million, it will likely require significantly more than that to keep Bitsko from following through on his Virginia commitment. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-37: SS Alika Williams, Arizona State (my rank: 49)
This pick wasn't as exciting as the Bitsko pick, but it's definitely a value selection as a money saver that adds a solid player as well. He's a glove-first guy who is as natural a defender at shortstop as it gets, showing plus instincts and great coordination that enables him to get to pretty much anything hit to his side of second base. At the plate, he has shown a productive bat in college, but he doesn't have a ton of upside. He hit .333/.429/.474 with four home runs as a sophomore, but that dropped to .250/.359/.344 this year. He shows plus bat to ball abilities, striking out just 49 times in 129 career games at Arizona State, making consistent line drive contact to all fields. However, there isn't a ton of power present, and he doesn't project to add much, so he'll always be a contact hitter. That limits his ceiling, though with his plus defense at shortstop, getting on base just enough could lead to a starting job down the road. I see him more as a utility infielder than a true every day guy, especially with Wander Franco covering shortstop. If anybody is going to push Franco off shortstop, though, Williams would be the guy to do it. Slot value was $2 million, but Williams signed for $1.85 million, saving the Rays $150,000 towards Nick Bitsko. Pre-draft profile here.
2-57: LHP Ian Seymour, Virginia Tech (my rank: 71)
The highest draft selection from Virginia Tech since Joe Saunders went twelfth overall to the Angels in 2002, Seymour has been rising quickly over the past calendar year. He was more of a junkballer as an underclassman, but he went to the Cape over the summer and added power to his fastball, sitting in the low 90's and posting a 2.48 ERA and a sharp 39/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. He adds a plus changeup with exceptional fade in addition to an average slider, and everything plays up because the funk in his delivery enables him to hide the ball really well. That made him mildly successful early in his career, but now that he's touching 94 with that fastball, he's a legitimate starting pitching prospect. He was off to a really strong start in 2020, holding that velocity and putting up a 2.21 ERA and 40/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings, and he struck out 14 against Georgia Tech in his final start. There is some reliever risk due to his size (six foot even) and that funky delivery, but he's been trending up quickly enough that h e has a really good shot to stick in the rotation and the Rays certainly think so. With his solid command that enables him to tunnel his pitches off each other, in addition to how tough it can be to pick the ball up out of his hand, his stuff plays up significantly. I definitely like this pick for the Rays, especially if they end up saving money off of his $1.24 million slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-96: RHP Hunter Barnhart, St. Joseph HS, CA (my rank: 53)
This is another great pick for the Rays. In a lot of ways, Hunter Barnhart is kind of Nick Bitsko-lite. A standout quarterback at Paso Robles High School in California, he intrigued scouts with his pitchability and breaking ball but his upper 80's fastball was a little light. However, after transferring to St. Joseph High School down in Santa Maria, he came out this spring firing in the low 90's, and suddenly he's a much more interesting prospect. In addition to that low 90's fastball, he throws a big curveball with plus depth, and it should continue to function as an out pitch in pro ball. He doesn't have much of a changeup at this point, but instead, he fills up the strike zone extremely well and projects for plus command down the line. With a durable 6'2" frame, he brings a lot of starter's traits to the table, and comes with less risk than the typical high school arm. Aside from the ever-present injury risk, all he really needs to do is develop a changeup and keep hitting his spots like he does, and he has a floor of a back end starter if he does. He signed for $585,000, which was $19,800 below slot, giving the Rays fantastic value at the back of the top 100. Pre-draft profile here.
4-125: SS Tanner Murray, UC Davis (unranked)
Murray is an interesting pick for the Rays coming out of UC Davis, one of the better line drive hitters in college baseball. He's been as consistent as they come for three years with the Aggies, slashing .343/.394/.469 with three home runs and a 46/32 strikeout to walk ratio across 115 games, topping out with a .364 average in 2019. He employs a simple, line drive stroke that consistently peppers baseballs over the heads of infielders and into gaps, though he doesn't have much present over the fence power and doesn't really have the speed to profile for a ton of doubles and triples. He hit just .221/.278/.336 in 37 games on the Cape, furthering questions about how much impact he'll hit for, but the track record over at school is as consistent as they come. He's also steadily been hitting for more and more power throughout his college career, but it still ain't much. With a fairly projectable 6'2" frame, though, he could probably get close to average power if he and the Rays want to develop that way as a hitter. Murray can play pretty decent shortstop, but with the depth of middle infielders in the Rays system, he'll most likely be outplayed at that position by guys like Alika Williams and Wander Franco. The ultimate projection is probably a middle infielder here. Slot value is $455,600, though I imagine Murray might take a slight discount.
5-155: RHP Jeff Hakanson, Central Florida (unranked)
The I-4 corridor is absolutely brimming with talent, so it would be surprised if the Rays didn't end up with a hometown kid. Jeff Hakanson attended Jesuit High School in Tampa, then headed up I-4 to UCF for college. He's been an absolute strikeout machine for the Knights, striking out 26 in 14.2 innings as a freshman, 52 in 26.2 innings as a sophomore, and an incredible 20 in 8.1 innings as a junior. For those keeping track, that was 20 out of 28 batters he faced in 2020 and 98 strikeouts in 49.2 innings overall. His best pitch is easily his mid 90's fastball, a high spin pitch that is extremely difficult to square up coming from his long arm action. He has a solid slider as well that's an above average pitch, but with Hakanson, the fastball is the true weapon that nobody has been able to touch. The command is average and he'll probably need to sharpen that slider a little bit more going forward if he wants to be anything more than a middle reliever, but he should move pretty quickly and he has closer – or opener – upside down the road. He signed for $340,000, right at slot value.
Undrafted: The Rays are yet to sign any undrafted free agents.
Wednesday, June 17, 2020
2020 Draft Review: Atlanta Braves
1-25: LHP Jared Shuster, Wake Forest
3-97: OF Jesse Franklin, Michigan
4-126: RHP Spencer Strider, Clemson
5-156: RHP Bryce Elder, Texas
The Braves gained a compensation pick for losing Josh Donaldson, but gave it right back in addition to losing their second round pick after signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna. They took all four of their players from power five conferences this year, grabbing two ACC arms in addition to a Big Ten bat and Big 12 arm. It's a pitching-heavy class as well at three out of four. I think all four picks give reason for optimism and can be exciting in their own right, but overall, I don't love the class as a whole. By far, my favorite pick was fifth rounder Bryce Elder. However, after the draft, the Braves picked up a solid group of undrafted free agents, with Georgia Bulldog Cam Shepherd really rounding out this "draft" class for the team.
Full index of team profiles here.
1-25: LHP Jared Shuster, Wake Forest (my rank: 54)
Jared Shuster has been a man of steady progress. Not much of a prospect at this time in 2019, he was a decent lefty with unimpressive velocity and so-so command that led to a 6.49 ERA at Wake Forest. On the Cape, however, he significantly improved that command, and that enabled him to post a 1.36 ERA and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings on the Cape. Coming back to Winston-Salem in 2020, he took another step forward, this time with his velocity, and was off to a great start with a 3.76 ERA and a 43/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 26.1 innings. Nowadays, the Massachusetts native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and a plus changeup from the left side. That changeup is truly his bread and butter, a plus pitch that never seems to reach the plate, fooling even advanced hitters. The Braves' hope is that his next big step forward will be with that slider, which plays closer to average. It can play up at times when he tunnels it off his other pitches, and overall, a lefty that can hit 97 and command it is going to be a hot commodity. He's a little bit older for a college junior, set to turn 22 in July, but the Braves certainly think they're getting a potential impact starting pitcher here. Slot value is $2.74 million and I'd imagine he might not require all of that to sign, but I don't see any obvious over slot candidates lower in the draft except for perhaps Bryce Elder. Pre-draft profile here.
3-97: OF Jesse Franklin, Michigan (my rank: 148)
72 picks later, the Braves came around on the board again and picked up Michigan outfielder Jesse Franklin. A Seattle native who travelled across the country for school, his track record has been a little bit hard to discern. He hit a robust .327/.379/.588 with ten home runs as a freshman, then followed that up with a solid summer on the Cape. However, he dropped to .262/.388/.477 with 13 home runs as a sophomore as pitchers pitched him more carefully and he simultaneously started to tap a little more power. After not playing in 2020 due to a skiing accident, scouts are left wondering who the real Franklin is. It looks like he's about solid-average across the board, showing some power, some pure hitting ability, some speed, and some defense in the outfield. That comes out to a fourth outfield projection in all, looking like maybe 10-15 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, but at this point he could develop in any number of directions. He's clearly a talented ballplayer with a nice combination of physical tools and feel for the game, so the Braves should be confident they'll be getting some sort of a contributor in some capacity, but they'll have to wait and see a little more than for the typical college hitter. Slot value here is $599,100, which seems perhaps fair for Franklin. Like Shuster, he may take a bit of a discount, but I wouldn't peg him for a big one.
4-126: RHP Spencer Strider, Clemson (unranked)
A semi-hometown pick, Strider grew up in the Knoxville area and attended Clemson. He missed the 2019 season with Tommy John surgery and was off to a solid start in 2020, putting up a 4.50 ERA and a 19/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 innings. A smaller guy at six feet tall, his main weapon is a mid 90's fastball that jumps on hitters from a quick right arm. He also adds a slider and a changeup, with the slider usually above average, but he does need more refinement overall on those secondary pitches. Since he's a smaller guy and also comes from a pretty uptempo delivery, there are significant reliever questions, especially given the depth of young pitching in the Braves' system. Command-wise, he's been below average since high school, but he was doing a better job of throwing strikes in the small sample of 2020. With just 63 college innings under his belt, the Braves are banking on the upside and hoping he continue to sharpen his overall game, with that electric fastball being the selling point. Slot value is $451,800, though I don't know what his asking price will be.
5-156: RHP Bryce Elder, Texas (my rank: 99)
Elder is easily my favorite pick in the draft for the Braves. He's your classic old school Texas workhorse, coming at you with a durable 6'2" frame and plenty of pitching savvy. His sinker typically hovers around 90, though in the shortened season he was above 90 more than he was below it and touched as high as 95. The sinker is extremely difficult to lift, bringing a little bit of running action in addition to its sink, and the slight uptick in velocity is a very welcome sight. His best secondary pitch is his slider, a plus pitch with sharp bite down in the zone that plays really well off his sinker and is his go to pitch for missing bats. There are also a curveball and a changeup present, with both looking solid average, but the sinker and slider are his main weapons. He's probably more above average than plus when it comes to command, but he attacks the zone and mixes his pitches really well, which causes everything to play up. It's a back-end starter profile most likely, but I think he has a shot to be a mid-rotation guy if the velocity can creep up just a little further. Either way, he's a very safe bet and I love the value in the fifth round. Slot value is $336,600, and it seems likely that whatever money the Braves save in the first three rounds will be directed here. Pre-draft profile here.
Undrafted: SS Cam Shepherd, Georgia (unranked)
This is one of the biggest undrafted free agent signings you'll see in 2020. A true hometown kid, Shepherd was a standout at Peachtree Ridge High School in Duluth and garnered top five rounds consideration in 2016, but he was set on heading to Athens and didn't sign. Four years later, he's been much more solid than spectacular for the Dawgs, hitting .307/.354/.452 as a freshman before settling in with a more average bat the rest of his college career. He was off to a solid start in 2020, hitting .264/.368/.486 with four home runs in 17 games, a bit above where he was from 2018-2019. Shepherd is a fringy hitter whose patient approach is his best offensive trait, though his hit tool is fringe-average and his power is below average. He does have a nice quick swing from the right side that should enable his overall bat to play up in pro ball. Defensively, he's more consistent than exciting at shortstop, but it's more than enough to stick there and really adds to his value. That comes together to a solid utility infielder projection, but for a $20,000 undrafted senior sign and a hometown guy at that, it's absolutely a big get for the Braves.
Other Undrafted
1B Bryson Horne, Columbus State: 6 HR, .425/.510/.725, 0 SB, 8/13 K/BB in 21 games
RHP Carter Linton, Tusculum (TN): 1-1, 1.35 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 20/7 K/BB in 13.1 IP
IF Landon Stephens, Miami (OH): 3 HR, .311/.391/.574, 5 SB, 13/8 K/BB in 15 games
OF Ethan Workinger, San Diego City CC: 0 HR, .387/.444/.600, 2 SB, 11/9 K/BB in 19 games
The Braves pick up two more semi-hometown players in the undrafted free agent market, grabbing Bryson Horne (Blountstown, FL) and Carter Linton (Kingsport, TN) out of Division II schools. Horne transferred from Georgia Highlands College to Columbus State and raked, putting up video game numbers in 2020 that could help him slug his way to a bench role down the line. Linton, meanwhile, has played at a few schools around East Tennessee and is an undersized right hander with a relief projection. Stephens is the lone Division I signee (aside from Shepherd), coming off a four year career at Miami of Ohio in which he got better and better throughout. He's a utility infield profile that does a little bit of everything. Lastly, Ethan Workinger is a little more interesting, as he got off to a really hot start at San Diego City College and was only a freshman, giving him significantly more time to develop.
3-97: OF Jesse Franklin, Michigan
4-126: RHP Spencer Strider, Clemson
5-156: RHP Bryce Elder, Texas
The Braves gained a compensation pick for losing Josh Donaldson, but gave it right back in addition to losing their second round pick after signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna. They took all four of their players from power five conferences this year, grabbing two ACC arms in addition to a Big Ten bat and Big 12 arm. It's a pitching-heavy class as well at three out of four. I think all four picks give reason for optimism and can be exciting in their own right, but overall, I don't love the class as a whole. By far, my favorite pick was fifth rounder Bryce Elder. However, after the draft, the Braves picked up a solid group of undrafted free agents, with Georgia Bulldog Cam Shepherd really rounding out this "draft" class for the team.
Full index of team profiles here.
1-25: LHP Jared Shuster, Wake Forest (my rank: 54)
Jared Shuster has been a man of steady progress. Not much of a prospect at this time in 2019, he was a decent lefty with unimpressive velocity and so-so command that led to a 6.49 ERA at Wake Forest. On the Cape, however, he significantly improved that command, and that enabled him to post a 1.36 ERA and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings on the Cape. Coming back to Winston-Salem in 2020, he took another step forward, this time with his velocity, and was off to a great start with a 3.76 ERA and a 43/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 26.1 innings. Nowadays, the Massachusetts native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and a plus changeup from the left side. That changeup is truly his bread and butter, a plus pitch that never seems to reach the plate, fooling even advanced hitters. The Braves' hope is that his next big step forward will be with that slider, which plays closer to average. It can play up at times when he tunnels it off his other pitches, and overall, a lefty that can hit 97 and command it is going to be a hot commodity. He's a little bit older for a college junior, set to turn 22 in July, but the Braves certainly think they're getting a potential impact starting pitcher here. Slot value is $2.74 million and I'd imagine he might not require all of that to sign, but I don't see any obvious over slot candidates lower in the draft except for perhaps Bryce Elder. Pre-draft profile here.
3-97: OF Jesse Franklin, Michigan (my rank: 148)
72 picks later, the Braves came around on the board again and picked up Michigan outfielder Jesse Franklin. A Seattle native who travelled across the country for school, his track record has been a little bit hard to discern. He hit a robust .327/.379/.588 with ten home runs as a freshman, then followed that up with a solid summer on the Cape. However, he dropped to .262/.388/.477 with 13 home runs as a sophomore as pitchers pitched him more carefully and he simultaneously started to tap a little more power. After not playing in 2020 due to a skiing accident, scouts are left wondering who the real Franklin is. It looks like he's about solid-average across the board, showing some power, some pure hitting ability, some speed, and some defense in the outfield. That comes out to a fourth outfield projection in all, looking like maybe 10-15 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, but at this point he could develop in any number of directions. He's clearly a talented ballplayer with a nice combination of physical tools and feel for the game, so the Braves should be confident they'll be getting some sort of a contributor in some capacity, but they'll have to wait and see a little more than for the typical college hitter. Slot value here is $599,100, which seems perhaps fair for Franklin. Like Shuster, he may take a bit of a discount, but I wouldn't peg him for a big one.
4-126: RHP Spencer Strider, Clemson (unranked)
A semi-hometown pick, Strider grew up in the Knoxville area and attended Clemson. He missed the 2019 season with Tommy John surgery and was off to a solid start in 2020, putting up a 4.50 ERA and a 19/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 innings. A smaller guy at six feet tall, his main weapon is a mid 90's fastball that jumps on hitters from a quick right arm. He also adds a slider and a changeup, with the slider usually above average, but he does need more refinement overall on those secondary pitches. Since he's a smaller guy and also comes from a pretty uptempo delivery, there are significant reliever questions, especially given the depth of young pitching in the Braves' system. Command-wise, he's been below average since high school, but he was doing a better job of throwing strikes in the small sample of 2020. With just 63 college innings under his belt, the Braves are banking on the upside and hoping he continue to sharpen his overall game, with that electric fastball being the selling point. Slot value is $451,800, though I don't know what his asking price will be.
5-156: RHP Bryce Elder, Texas (my rank: 99)
Elder is easily my favorite pick in the draft for the Braves. He's your classic old school Texas workhorse, coming at you with a durable 6'2" frame and plenty of pitching savvy. His sinker typically hovers around 90, though in the shortened season he was above 90 more than he was below it and touched as high as 95. The sinker is extremely difficult to lift, bringing a little bit of running action in addition to its sink, and the slight uptick in velocity is a very welcome sight. His best secondary pitch is his slider, a plus pitch with sharp bite down in the zone that plays really well off his sinker and is his go to pitch for missing bats. There are also a curveball and a changeup present, with both looking solid average, but the sinker and slider are his main weapons. He's probably more above average than plus when it comes to command, but he attacks the zone and mixes his pitches really well, which causes everything to play up. It's a back-end starter profile most likely, but I think he has a shot to be a mid-rotation guy if the velocity can creep up just a little further. Either way, he's a very safe bet and I love the value in the fifth round. Slot value is $336,600, and it seems likely that whatever money the Braves save in the first three rounds will be directed here. Pre-draft profile here.
Undrafted: SS Cam Shepherd, Georgia (unranked)
This is one of the biggest undrafted free agent signings you'll see in 2020. A true hometown kid, Shepherd was a standout at Peachtree Ridge High School in Duluth and garnered top five rounds consideration in 2016, but he was set on heading to Athens and didn't sign. Four years later, he's been much more solid than spectacular for the Dawgs, hitting .307/.354/.452 as a freshman before settling in with a more average bat the rest of his college career. He was off to a solid start in 2020, hitting .264/.368/.486 with four home runs in 17 games, a bit above where he was from 2018-2019. Shepherd is a fringy hitter whose patient approach is his best offensive trait, though his hit tool is fringe-average and his power is below average. He does have a nice quick swing from the right side that should enable his overall bat to play up in pro ball. Defensively, he's more consistent than exciting at shortstop, but it's more than enough to stick there and really adds to his value. That comes together to a solid utility infielder projection, but for a $20,000 undrafted senior sign and a hometown guy at that, it's absolutely a big get for the Braves.
Other Undrafted
1B Bryson Horne, Columbus State: 6 HR, .425/.510/.725, 0 SB, 8/13 K/BB in 21 games
RHP Carter Linton, Tusculum (TN): 1-1, 1.35 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 20/7 K/BB in 13.1 IP
IF Landon Stephens, Miami (OH): 3 HR, .311/.391/.574, 5 SB, 13/8 K/BB in 15 games
OF Ethan Workinger, San Diego City CC: 0 HR, .387/.444/.600, 2 SB, 11/9 K/BB in 19 games
The Braves pick up two more semi-hometown players in the undrafted free agent market, grabbing Bryson Horne (Blountstown, FL) and Carter Linton (Kingsport, TN) out of Division II schools. Horne transferred from Georgia Highlands College to Columbus State and raked, putting up video game numbers in 2020 that could help him slug his way to a bench role down the line. Linton, meanwhile, has played at a few schools around East Tennessee and is an undersized right hander with a relief projection. Stephens is the lone Division I signee (aside from Shepherd), coming off a four year career at Miami of Ohio in which he got better and better throughout. He's a utility infield profile that does a little bit of everything. Lastly, Ethan Workinger is a little more interesting, as he got off to a really hot start at San Diego City College and was only a freshman, giving him significantly more time to develop.
Tuesday, June 16, 2020
2020 Draft Review: Oakland Athletics
1-26: C Tyler Soderstrom, Turlock HS (CA)
2-58: RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan
3-98: OF Michael Guldberg, Georgia Tech
4-127: RHP Dane Acker, Oklahoma
5-157: RHP Stevie Emanuels, Washington
The A's probably weren't expecting Tyler Soderstrom to fall to them at 26th overall, and while he likely threw off their entire draft plan, they were more than likely to grab him. His true impact bat leads this class, while Jeff Criswell, Dane Acker, and Stevie Emanuels all bring something a little different to the mound. Criswell has now stuff but could use a little refinement, Acker more or less just is what he is, a safe bet #4/#5 starter, and Emanuels is a projection arm trending up. Aside from Soderstrom, the lone bat is Michael Guldberg, a money-saving pick who likely figures in as a fourth outfielder. The success of this class comes down to how much Soderstrom hits, though I personally see Emanuels as the under the radar x factor who could define the second through fifth picks.
Full index of team reviews here
1-26: C Tyler Soderstrom, Turlock HS, CA (my rank: 19)
Though they didn't get to pick until towards the end of the first round, the A's started off the draft with a bang, picking up Turlock High School catcher Tyler Soderstrom, a top twenty talent according to most. A semi-local kid who grew up in the Central Valley about an hour and a half west of the Coliseum, Soderstrom brings an exceptional bat that has been praised around the industry. Coming from a strong, 6'2" frame, he finds the barrel consistently and against very good competition with a strong left handed swing with plenty of loft. More recently, he's begun to grow into more power, taking that part of his game from average to safely above average, with potentially plus power projected. He gets a ton of leverage out of his frame and swing, driving the ball with authority to all fields, and his strength combined with his above average feel to hit enable scouts to be confident he'll tap that power in pro ball. His defense is behind his bat, as he's very athletic but hasn't quite refined his game behind the plate. If the A's are willing to work with those raw skills behind the plate and be patient, he could be one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, but the team may decide they want the bat sooner and decide not to worry about catching – especially with Sean Murphy in tow. Because of that athleticism, he could potentially handle third base or the outfield well, and he certainly has the bat to profile at any position. At his ceiling, he could project for as many as 25-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages, even at the spacious Coliseum. Committed to UCLA, he's going to be a very expensive sign, likely significantly over the $2.65 million slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
2-58: RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (my rank: 58)
Criswell ranked 58th on MLB Pipeline, 58th on my list, and went 58th overall, so I guess we're being consistent (Baseball America is the outlier, ranking him 53rd). He's been a consistent performer in some strong Michigan rotations, holding a 2.88 ERA and a 174/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 162.1 innings throughout his career in Ann Arbor. The repertoire is led by a mid 90's fastball with some armside tail that makes it hard to square up, and he also brings an above average slider and changeup. With a little bit of funky, but clean, arm action in the back, it can be hard to pick up his pitches out of his hands. However, he still has work to do on his control and command, as his mediocre strike throwing ability can hurt him at times and won't work in pro ball. The A's will hope to get him a little more consistent with his release point, because he has everything else he needs to start: a 6'4" frame, three above average pitches, and a good track record in a large conference. If he can get up to average command, he has the type of arsenal to effectively tunnel his pitches and have them make each other better. Slot value is $1.21 million here near the end of the second round, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took a slight discount. Pre-draft profile here.
3-98: OF Michael Guldberg, Georgia Tech (unranked)
If you like hit tools and on-base percentage (of course you do, you're an A's fan!), you're going to love this pick. Michael Guldberg is a career .374/.463/.459 hitter at Georgia Tech, striking out just 41 times in 104 games while drawing 44 walks. He's very much a singles hitter, with just 19 extra base hits in those 104 games, but he does an exceptional job poking line drives over infielders heads and going to all fields. He's more of a solid runner than a true plus speed guy, making him mostly just a one-dimensional player. Guldberg can handle center field or second base if needed, but he fits better in left. Overall, despite his uncanny ability to make solid contact, he's unlikely to end up a full time player down the road, with more of a fourth outfield projection. That said, you don't hit .374 over more than 100 games against an ACC schedule by accident, and with a June birthday, he's relatively young for a college junior. Slot value is $593,100, but he'll likely sign for significantly less as the A's work to reel in Soderstrom.
4-127: RHP Dane Acker, Oklahoma (unranked)
Dane Acker is much more of a right now product than a projection play. Hailing from the small town of Brenham, Texas, Acker moved from Rice to San Jacinto Community College to Oklahoma over the last three years and looked like he was finally finding his place when the season shut down. In his second to last start of the season, he tossed a complete game no-hitter against LSU, striking out eleven Tigers and thrusting himself onto draft radars. It's a pretty average four pitch mix overall, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a curve, slider, and changeup. The curve is ahead of the slider, but he mixes all four effectively and maintains his stuff deep into games. Acker's command is above average, though his lack of a true out pitch means that any wavering of that command could sink a start. Case in point: after no-hitting LSU on March 1st, he allowed four runs on eight hits over 4.2 innings against San Diego State on March 8th, right before the shutdown. It's a pretty safe #4/#5 profile, and he could have some modest #3 upside if he sharpens his offspeeds a little or adds some velocity. Slot value is $447,400, though the A's will likely ask for another slight discount to afford Soderstrom.
5-157: RHP Stevie Emanuels, Washington (my rank: 105)
It's easy to love the Tyler Soderstrom pick, but aside from that one, this is by far my favorite pick of this draft for the A's. After a solid sophomore season at Washington (2.35 ERA, 65/22 K/BB), Emanuels was taking it to another level in 2020, holding down a 0.79 ERA and a 38/9 strikeout to walk ratio across 22.2 innings, with six of those nine walks coming in his first start of the season. He's a 6'5" righty with an extremely loose arm that has continued to add velocity, now sitting consistently in the low 90's while touching 96, and he rattles off a really sharp slider that can miss bats in bunches. There's a solid curveball that he's still working on differentiating from his slider, as well as a changeup, and he's been working in more two seam fastballs that show nice run. A pretty lanky dude, it seems like he's still growing into his body a bit, but his strike throwing has gotten better and now plays as solid average, with the chance to work towards above average in the future. I look at the arm action and frame and think this kid could continue to get better and better and better, with a huge ceiling in addition to a nice baseline of skills. He could be an impact starter, with a fallback of a fastball/slider reliever. Slot value is $333,300, but I'm not sure if they'll be able to save much here.
Undrafted: RHP Grant Judkins, Iowa: 2-0, 2.33 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 24/5 K/BB in 21 IP
Undrafted: C William Simoneit, Wake Forest: 3 HR, .377/.462/.642, 0 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 17 games
Undrafted: C Cooper Uhl, Loyola Marymount: 0 HR, .361/.487/.443, 5 SB, 8/14 K/BB in 16 games
With 25 more draft reviews to write, I don't have the bandwidth to research all of these guys, but off the bat it looks like these are older players (all at least 22 years old) who figure to be role players long term. Uhl (a California kid from Orange County) has no power to speak of but has a good eye at the plate, while Simoneit was hitting for more impact this year after transferring from Cornell to Wake Forest as a graduate student. Judkins was showing a sharper strikeout to walk ratio at Iowa.
2-58: RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan
3-98: OF Michael Guldberg, Georgia Tech
4-127: RHP Dane Acker, Oklahoma
5-157: RHP Stevie Emanuels, Washington
The A's probably weren't expecting Tyler Soderstrom to fall to them at 26th overall, and while he likely threw off their entire draft plan, they were more than likely to grab him. His true impact bat leads this class, while Jeff Criswell, Dane Acker, and Stevie Emanuels all bring something a little different to the mound. Criswell has now stuff but could use a little refinement, Acker more or less just is what he is, a safe bet #4/#5 starter, and Emanuels is a projection arm trending up. Aside from Soderstrom, the lone bat is Michael Guldberg, a money-saving pick who likely figures in as a fourth outfielder. The success of this class comes down to how much Soderstrom hits, though I personally see Emanuels as the under the radar x factor who could define the second through fifth picks.
Full index of team reviews here
1-26: C Tyler Soderstrom, Turlock HS, CA (my rank: 19)
Though they didn't get to pick until towards the end of the first round, the A's started off the draft with a bang, picking up Turlock High School catcher Tyler Soderstrom, a top twenty talent according to most. A semi-local kid who grew up in the Central Valley about an hour and a half west of the Coliseum, Soderstrom brings an exceptional bat that has been praised around the industry. Coming from a strong, 6'2" frame, he finds the barrel consistently and against very good competition with a strong left handed swing with plenty of loft. More recently, he's begun to grow into more power, taking that part of his game from average to safely above average, with potentially plus power projected. He gets a ton of leverage out of his frame and swing, driving the ball with authority to all fields, and his strength combined with his above average feel to hit enable scouts to be confident he'll tap that power in pro ball. His defense is behind his bat, as he's very athletic but hasn't quite refined his game behind the plate. If the A's are willing to work with those raw skills behind the plate and be patient, he could be one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, but the team may decide they want the bat sooner and decide not to worry about catching – especially with Sean Murphy in tow. Because of that athleticism, he could potentially handle third base or the outfield well, and he certainly has the bat to profile at any position. At his ceiling, he could project for as many as 25-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages, even at the spacious Coliseum. Committed to UCLA, he's going to be a very expensive sign, likely significantly over the $2.65 million slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
2-58: RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (my rank: 58)
Criswell ranked 58th on MLB Pipeline, 58th on my list, and went 58th overall, so I guess we're being consistent (Baseball America is the outlier, ranking him 53rd). He's been a consistent performer in some strong Michigan rotations, holding a 2.88 ERA and a 174/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 162.1 innings throughout his career in Ann Arbor. The repertoire is led by a mid 90's fastball with some armside tail that makes it hard to square up, and he also brings an above average slider and changeup. With a little bit of funky, but clean, arm action in the back, it can be hard to pick up his pitches out of his hands. However, he still has work to do on his control and command, as his mediocre strike throwing ability can hurt him at times and won't work in pro ball. The A's will hope to get him a little more consistent with his release point, because he has everything else he needs to start: a 6'4" frame, three above average pitches, and a good track record in a large conference. If he can get up to average command, he has the type of arsenal to effectively tunnel his pitches and have them make each other better. Slot value is $1.21 million here near the end of the second round, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took a slight discount. Pre-draft profile here.
3-98: OF Michael Guldberg, Georgia Tech (unranked)
If you like hit tools and on-base percentage (of course you do, you're an A's fan!), you're going to love this pick. Michael Guldberg is a career .374/.463/.459 hitter at Georgia Tech, striking out just 41 times in 104 games while drawing 44 walks. He's very much a singles hitter, with just 19 extra base hits in those 104 games, but he does an exceptional job poking line drives over infielders heads and going to all fields. He's more of a solid runner than a true plus speed guy, making him mostly just a one-dimensional player. Guldberg can handle center field or second base if needed, but he fits better in left. Overall, despite his uncanny ability to make solid contact, he's unlikely to end up a full time player down the road, with more of a fourth outfield projection. That said, you don't hit .374 over more than 100 games against an ACC schedule by accident, and with a June birthday, he's relatively young for a college junior. Slot value is $593,100, but he'll likely sign for significantly less as the A's work to reel in Soderstrom.
4-127: RHP Dane Acker, Oklahoma (unranked)
Dane Acker is much more of a right now product than a projection play. Hailing from the small town of Brenham, Texas, Acker moved from Rice to San Jacinto Community College to Oklahoma over the last three years and looked like he was finally finding his place when the season shut down. In his second to last start of the season, he tossed a complete game no-hitter against LSU, striking out eleven Tigers and thrusting himself onto draft radars. It's a pretty average four pitch mix overall, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a curve, slider, and changeup. The curve is ahead of the slider, but he mixes all four effectively and maintains his stuff deep into games. Acker's command is above average, though his lack of a true out pitch means that any wavering of that command could sink a start. Case in point: after no-hitting LSU on March 1st, he allowed four runs on eight hits over 4.2 innings against San Diego State on March 8th, right before the shutdown. It's a pretty safe #4/#5 profile, and he could have some modest #3 upside if he sharpens his offspeeds a little or adds some velocity. Slot value is $447,400, though the A's will likely ask for another slight discount to afford Soderstrom.
5-157: RHP Stevie Emanuels, Washington (my rank: 105)
It's easy to love the Tyler Soderstrom pick, but aside from that one, this is by far my favorite pick of this draft for the A's. After a solid sophomore season at Washington (2.35 ERA, 65/22 K/BB), Emanuels was taking it to another level in 2020, holding down a 0.79 ERA and a 38/9 strikeout to walk ratio across 22.2 innings, with six of those nine walks coming in his first start of the season. He's a 6'5" righty with an extremely loose arm that has continued to add velocity, now sitting consistently in the low 90's while touching 96, and he rattles off a really sharp slider that can miss bats in bunches. There's a solid curveball that he's still working on differentiating from his slider, as well as a changeup, and he's been working in more two seam fastballs that show nice run. A pretty lanky dude, it seems like he's still growing into his body a bit, but his strike throwing has gotten better and now plays as solid average, with the chance to work towards above average in the future. I look at the arm action and frame and think this kid could continue to get better and better and better, with a huge ceiling in addition to a nice baseline of skills. He could be an impact starter, with a fallback of a fastball/slider reliever. Slot value is $333,300, but I'm not sure if they'll be able to save much here.
Undrafted: RHP Grant Judkins, Iowa: 2-0, 2.33 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 24/5 K/BB in 21 IP
Undrafted: C William Simoneit, Wake Forest: 3 HR, .377/.462/.642, 0 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 17 games
Undrafted: C Cooper Uhl, Loyola Marymount: 0 HR, .361/.487/.443, 5 SB, 8/14 K/BB in 16 games
With 25 more draft reviews to write, I don't have the bandwidth to research all of these guys, but off the bat it looks like these are older players (all at least 22 years old) who figure to be role players long term. Uhl (a California kid from Orange County) has no power to speak of but has a good eye at the plate, while Simoneit was hitting for more impact this year after transferring from Cornell to Wake Forest as a graduate student. Judkins was showing a sharper strikeout to walk ratio at Iowa.
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