2023 MLB Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies

Full list of draftees

Lacking a third and a fifth round pick after signing Trea Turner in the offseason, the Phillies bet big on three high school bats with their first three picks, including arguably the best all-around hitter in the class outside of the consensus top two, Walker Jenkins and Max Clark. That Aidan Miller fell into their laps at the end of the first round and only required a small over slot bonus is a huge boon for Philadelphia. Behind Miller, their class is filled with players that were in that next batch of names I would have liked to research if I had more time. Beyond there, it's a physicality-laden class with fourteen of their final seventeen overall picks listed at 6'2" or taller and six coming in at 6'4" or taller.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-27: SS Aidan Miller, J.W. Mitchell HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $2.97 million. Signing bonus: $3.1 million ($131,200 above slot value).
My rank: #17. MLB Pipeline: #13. Baseball America: #20. Prospects Live: #22.
The Phillies successfully floated Aidan Miller down to their first pick, injecting a consensus mid-first round talent into their system at the back of the round. Miller is one of the best all-around hitters in the prep class, perhaps the single best high school bat after the consensus top two. He already packs tremendous strength into his 6'2" frame, helping him produce plus power that shows up consistently in games and against high level competition. Though he has an excellent track record of performance, there are some questions about his load, which includes a sizable hitch that entails pointing his bat straight in the air, stabbing backwards, and pulling his hands back into a hitting position before his swing. Though some scouts are concerned by this, others see it more as a timing mechanism and point to his ability to catch up to velocity with no trouble. The Tampa-area native can chase high fastballs at times, but generally sees the ball very well east-west and takes strong at bats. This is a hitter that could hit for both power and average at a high clip in the majors. Beyond the bat, there are some minor questions. He's not a quick twitch athlete and will have to work hard to stick at third base, where his plus arm is plenty but his range will have to hold where it's at to avoid a move to first base. Miller also missed most of his high school spring season with a broken hand and hasn't been seen much since last summer, and lastly, he's very old for the class, having turned 19 back in June. Committed to Arkansas, it took over $100,000 above slot value to pull him away from Fayetteville (between the slot values of the 25th and 26th pick) which honestly looks like a steal to me.

3-98: SS Devin Saltiban, Hilo HS [HI] {video}
Slot value: $685,100. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #182. Baseball America: #149. Prospects Live: #172.
Devin Saltiban is a split-camp prospect due to his track record. Not much of a prospect before the season, a strong senior season pushed him up boards and he came stateside to the MLB Draft Combine and MLB Draft League to get more exposure against advanced pitching. He held his own, slashing .262/.354/.405 with a pair of home runs and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games in the league, leading the Phillies to be comfortable enough to take him in the third round. Though undersized at 5'10", Saltiban stands out for his physicality and athleticism, with the ability to generate big bat speed and potentially above average power from the right side. That eleven game run through Draft League represents the majority of his exposure to higher level pitching, so how his bat plays in pro ball is still a question, one the Phillies are confidently rolling the dice on. Drafted as a shortstop, Saltiban has mostly played the outfield to this point. As an outfielder, he's a good runner that has a shot to stick in center field with further refinement and the right kind of physical development, and at worst looks like an average corner outfielder if he slows down. The Phillies will see how that skill set works on the infield, where his innate body control and athleticism could make him an interesting candidate to stick. It's a real boom or bust pick for Philadelphia, who are plucking him away from a hometown commitment to the University of Hawaii.

4-130: OF TayShaun Walton, IMG Academy [FL] {video}
Slot value: $501,600. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #168. Baseball America: #262. Prospects Live: #236.
The Phillies made it three straight prep bats with TayShaun Walton, like Devin Saltiban a powerful, athletic outfielder who wasn't seen much on the showcase circuit. Unlike Saltiban, who played way off the beaten path in Hawaii and was hard to get eyes on, Walton played on a loaded IMG Academy squad alongside two of the top 103 prospects in the country by my list, Cameron Smith and Zion Rose. He's bigger than Saltiban, standing 6'3" with plenty of present strength and physicality. The swing is more geared for line drives than fly balls right now, but he already puts up high exit velocities and it's easy to dream on more power as he learns to elevate the ball more. He made a lot of contact and controlled the zone well against strong Florida high school competition this spring, which should help him make the swing adjustment without too much of an issue. More known for his bat than his glove, the southern Virginia native is an above average runner that plays average outfield defense, with left field his most likely long term destination. As a right handed hitter with a left field profile, pressure will be on his bat to develop, but the upside is very high here. He is committed to the University of Miami.

6-193: RHP George Klassen, Minnesota {video}
Slot value: $282,900. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($17,100 above slot value).
My rank: #172. MLB Pipeline: #190. Baseball America: #217. Prospects Live: #204.
In George Klassen, the Phillies are getting one of the most electric arms in the class. That said, the lightning in his right arm is yet to manifest into results. Tommy John kept him off the mound during his true freshman season in 2021, then in 2022 he either walked or hit 21 of the 50 batters he faced (42%) and finished with a 14.09 ERA. He cleaned things up a little in 2023 and actually earned his way to a rotation spot, where he pitched to an unremarkable 5.72 ERA and a 49/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings. The numbers, of course, are nothing to write home about, but the stuff is. Klassen sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and has run it as high as 102 in short stints, giving him some of the best velocity in the entire country. While the pitch can show some riding life in short stints, it's more of a running fastball over longer outings. He has flashed plus with his hard slider that reaches the upper 80's, and this spring has shown more of a curveball, cutter, and changeup than in the past, though the changeup lags behind the rest of the arsenal. His stuff has looked better in relief than it does over longer starts, when it gets inconsistent and can flatten out. Additionally, the Wisconsin native has well below average command, with his 17.9% walk rate this spring actually showing a dramatic improvement from 2022, when he had absolutely no feel for where the ball was going. At this point, he has an idea, but that's where we're at, an idea. He has cleaned up his delivery a bit this spring but it still features considerable head whack, and overall it's almost certainly a relief profile. Klassen has some similarities to so-far-successful Phillies 2021 fifth rounder Griff McGarry, though McGarry's fastball has better shape profile and he had a few great starts down the stretch during his draft season, which Klassen did not. I'm interested to see how Klassen's stuff eats when he's pushed back to the bullpen.

7-223: RHP Jake Eddington, Missouri State {video}
Slot value: $222,900. Signing bonus: $225,000 ($2,100 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #216. Prospects Live: #286.
Jake Eddington spent his freshman season at Alabama, then missed the 2022 season with an injury and transferred back to his home state in 2023. He was up and down in his lone season at Missouri State, posting a 4.20 ERA and a 59/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.2 innings, including gems against Illinois State and Murray State and ugly starts against Bradley and Indiana State. Eddington sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 97 with average movement. He stands out most for a potentially plus slider with deep two-plane bite that missed a ton of bats in 2023. He also shows a changeup, but it's a third pitch. The 6'2" righty native struggled to throw strikes in 2023 and often found himself behind in the count, walking 15.6% of his opponents, but he has a loose, athletic delivery and could conceivably creep closer to average command as the Phillies smooth him out. Eddington will likely move to the bullpen and let his fastball/slider combination eat, though the Phillies may initially run the southern Missouri native out as a starter. Though he's a redshirt sophomore, he's very old for the class and turned 22 back in April.

10-313: RHP Cam Brown, Texas Christian {video}
Slot value: $164,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #191. Baseball America: #201. Prospects Live: #184.
Back in the summer of 2019, Cam Brown was one of the most dominant arms on the high school showcase circuit and had pushed his way into second round consideration. However, he didn't look quite right during his brief senior season before the COVID shutdown and made it to campus at TCU. There, he has continued to tantalize with big league stuff but has struggled to string together any kind of consistency, falling to the Phillies in the tenth round here. My eighth ranked prospect in the Big 12 heading into the 2023 season, he entered the season with a lot to prove but wound up showing more of the same, posting a 5.20 ERA and a 62/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.1 innings. It was nice to see him improve his strikeout rate from 20.6% to 24.4%, though his walk rate also jumped from 13.0% to 15.7%. Brown sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, regularly touching 97 and holding his velocity consistently. His best pitch is an above average slider in the mid 80's that functions as his primary out pitch, while his firm changeup is a third pitch at this point. The 6'3" righty is sturdily built and looks like he can handle 200 innings in the majors, but he struggles to repeat his delivery, which can get stiff, and is prone to regular bouts of below average command. Unless the Phillies can smooth something out in that regard, he likely ends up a reliever, where he may approach triple digits and can lean hard on his slider. The talent is certainly there, though, and it's not out of the question that the Phillies could find a way to keep him in the rotation.

11-343: C Kehden Hettiger, Sierra Canyon HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($250,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #177. Baseball America: #322. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Phillies went way over slot in the eleventh round, giving Kehden Hettiger fifth round money to sign away from an Oregon commitment. Hettiger is physically imposing at a filled-out 6'2", which is befitting of a prospect that is very old for a high school senior, having turned 19 back in May. A switch hitter, he has significant raw power that plays better from the left side, though he's not elevating the ball consistently yet. The swing is long with some moving parts, including a hitch in his load, but he performed well this spring regardless and generally takes good at bats with strong pitch selection. Defensively, he shows an above average arm behind the plate but will need significant work on his glove in order to remain a catcher as he moves up the ladder. In this case, the Phillies are buying into the Los Angeles native's power and feel to hit and hoping the finer aspects of his game follow along, especially given the spotty track record of high school catchers.

Undrafted: OF Keaton Anthony, Iowa {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #326. Prospects Live: #372.
Keaton Anthony has a chance to be one of the better undrafted free agent signings in the class, though it should be noted that he was suspended at the end of the season as part of the investigation into gambling accusations against the Iowa baseball program. Anthony got just one at bat as a freshman, but has absolutely raked over the past two seasons for a combined .373/.477/.688 slash line and 23 home runs in 96 games. Additionally, he dramatically cut his strikeout rate from 16.4% as a sophomore to 11.1% as a junior. Here, the Phillies are purely buying the bat. Built like a slugger at 6'4", he has plus raw power to all fields and has shown the ability to tap it in games for two years now. His swing can get a bit grooved, but he did a great job of making contact in 2023 even against the stronger arms in the Big Ten, though the B1G is admittedly not quite the level of competition of the SEC or ACC. Anthony is a non-defender, mostly playing DH at Iowa and occasionally seeing time on the mound, in fact throwing twenty innings for the Hawkeyes this spring with a 4.95 ERA. The Phillies may try him at first base, left field, or right field, where his arm strength will hopefully make up for his lack of speed.

2023 MLB Draft Review: Houston Astros

Full list of draftees

The Astros went their own way in this draft, with many of their selections not lining up with public boards and perception, but they have drafted well in the past and I trust what they're doing. The hitters represent an emphasis on batted ball data, especially between guys like Brice Matthews and Cam Fisher who possess some of the best raw exit velocities in the class. The pitching, meanwhile, was all on the college side, led by one of the more interesting arms at the top of the college class in Alonzo Tredwell. Houston also picked up two Houston-area natives, which is a nice tie in.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-28: SS Brice Matthews, Nebraska {video}
Slot value: $2.88 million. Signing bonus: $2.48 million ($402,500 below slot value).
My rank: #37. MLB Pipeline: #57. Baseball America: #57. Prospects Live: #41.
The Astros stayed in their own backyard with their first pick, grabbing Brice Matthews out of Nebraska. Though he spent his college career in Lincoln, Matthews grew up in Humble, Texas, in the shadows of IAH Airport and attended Atascocita High School less than twenty miles northeast of Minute Maid Park. After two middling seasons at Nebraska, Matthews broke out for a massive junior season in 2023 by slashing .359/.481/.723 with 20 home runs with a 53/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He has huge bat speed from the right side that produces plus-plus raw power and elite batted ball data overall. He has also become a more patient hitter as he's developed, and with strong adjustability in his right handed swing he can get the barrel to the ball all over the zone. With a pull-oriented approach, he does run into some swing and miss in the zone and ran 20% strikeout rate in 2023, a little higher than you'd like especially in the Big Ten. It's still a strong overall offensive profile with the potential for 25-30+ home runs per year and solid on-base percentages. A former high school quarterback and a successful one at that, his athleticism is apparent on the diamond but his actions at shortstop are a bit raw. He has a chance to stick there with further development but with a solid arm and plus speed he could really end up anywhere on the diamond. His $2.48 million signing bonus was more than $400,000 below slot value, giving the Astros an opportunity to spend big later in the draft.

2-61: RHP Alonzo Tredwell, UCLA {video}
Slot value: $1.3 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #69. MLB Pipeline: #63. Baseball America: #64. Prospects Live: #86.
Alonzo Tredwell has a bit of a different profile, and he makes a fun one for the Astros with some parallels to their second round compensation pick a year ago, Andrew Taylor. Tredwell drew considerable attention during the 2021 draft despite undergoing Tommy John surgery but made it to campus at UCLA, and he's been lights out for the Bruins. After a huge freshman season out of the bullpen (2.11 ERA, 62/6 K/BB in 47 IP), he stepped into the rotation in 2023 with good results, posting a 3.57 ERA and a 51/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.1 innings. The profile here is fairly unique – standing 6'8" with great body control, he gets down the mound extremely well with a combination of extension and height that makes his release point fairly unique. While his fastball only sits in the low 90's and tops out around 96, he gets nice riding action on the pitch and that unique release point really gives it a different look. He shows a curveball and slider, both with downer action, as well as a slider, though he's still gaining feel for that offspeed stuff. The slider stands out as perhaps his best offspeed pitch for now. The Southern California native pounds the strike zone with above average command and moves well on the mound, so any added velocity would really play. The biggest drawback with Tredwell's profile is health, as he didn't pitch after April 22nd with back problems and that's a bit more on the complicated side when it comes to nagging injuries. If he can stay healthy and add a little velocity, he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.

3-99: RHP Jake Bloss, Georgetown {video}
Slot value: $678,500. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #147. MLB Pipeline: #178. Baseball America: #250. Prospects Live: #121.
If Alonzo Tredwell has some similarities to Andrew Taylor, then Jake Bloss has some similarities to the Astros' third round pick last year, Michael Knorr. Bloss began his career at Lafayette, where he was unremarkable as an underclassman but had a nice junior year in 2022. Graduating in three years, he transferred to Georgetown to get a masters' degree in finance, and with eligibility remaining, he joined the baseball team as well. Fourteen appearances later, he hung his hat on a 2.58 ERA and a 96/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.2 innings, including some outstanding outings against Iona, Hartford, Creighton, and St. John's. The stuff all got considerably louder while he retained his strong pitchability, and now he may want to put the finance world on hold as a legitimate starting pitching prospect. Bloss now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 97 with riding action. He has feel for two distinct breaking balls in a deep curveball and a shorter slider, with the ability to work in a changeup as well. Well built at 6'3", he pounds the strike zone with solid command and feel for pitching, giving him every chance to work his way up as a back-end starter. Though he's a senior sign, he's on the younger side for his class and isn't too much older than some juniors drafted this year. He has a chance to work up the ladder quickly like Knorr, who is already showing well in High A.

4-131: OF Cam Fisher, Charlotte {video}
Slot value: $497,600. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #112. MLB Pipeline: #210. Baseball America: #141. Prospects Live: #120.
In Cam Fisher, the Astros pulled in some of the best raw power in the class. Fisher began his career at Ole Miss but didn't play, spent a year at Walters State Community College near his hometown in Tennessee, then transferred to Charlotte in 2022 and took just two seasons to set the school's all time home run record at 48. In fact, 2023 was his best season yet as he slashed .348/.507/.813 with 30 home runs and a 63/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. The 30 home runs were third in all of Division I, behind only likely 2024 first rounder Jac Caglianone and 2023 first rounder Brock Wilken (Brewers). Fisher can crush a baseball with the best of them, with elite 90th percentile exit velocities approaching 110 MPH and a natural ability to lift the ball with authority. Fisher is also an extremely patient hitter that rarely chases and effectively works counts to find a pitch he can elevate. If he doesn't, he's more than happy to draw a walk and did so over 20% of the time in 2023. The drawback in the profile here is swing and miss in the strike zone, as he can get overpowered by higher quality stuff (especially offspeed) and that will be a concern in pro ball when pitchers are more capable of living in the zone when they choose to. If Fisher can find a way to shore up his bat to ball ability in the zone, he has a chance to be a real impact hitter for Houston. Defensively, he runs well enough to handle a corner outfield spot but overall profiles as an average corner outfielder. The most likely outcome here is as a power hitting platoon bat.

5-164: SS Chase Jaworsky, Rock Canyon HS [CO] {video}
Slot value: $360,800. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #395.
This is a real sleeper pick for the fifth round. Chase Jaworsky went unranked on most public boards and only holds a commitment to Utah Valley University, in stark contrast to many top drafted preps typically headed to blue blood programs. He's a trajectory pick, as he wasn't even considered a prospect until recent strong showcase and spring performances late in his high school career. Jaworsky is skinny and projectable at 6'1", with a simple left handed swing that channels his core strength for some power to the pull side. As he fills out and learns to get his arms extended a little more, the power could continue to develop. Otherwise, he doesn't have much track record against higher level pitching, and much of his exposure came from playing on the same Colorado-based travel team as Giants second rounder Walker Martin. He's also a good runner with a good shot to stick at shortstop, though I couldn't find much video fo his defense.

11-344: OF Nehomar Ochoa, Galena Park HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #348. Prospects Live: #385.
Nehomar Ochoa gives the Astros a second hometown pick. Originally from Venezuela, he moved to the Houston area as a kid and grew up in Galena Park, just seven miles east of Minute Maid Park amidst the ports and oil refineries along Buffalo Bayou. A two-way player in high school that earned considerable interest as a pitcher, where he was up to 95, he'll be a position player only in the Astros' system. Ochoa is big and strong at 6'4", with above average raw power that he has tapped against his Houston-area competition. He hasn't been seen much against higher level competition on the showcase circuit, so the Astros are buying into that power and his strong track record locally. Ochoa is also young for the class, exactly one year younger than Chase Jaworsky (who is on the older side for the class) to the day, which always helps with projectability. The arm plays in the outfield and he plays solid defense. Committed to the University of Houston, it sounds like he'll instead sign with, well, Houston.

15-464: C Garret Guillemette, Texas {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #339.
The Astros plucked Garret Guillemette out of the University of Texas in the fifteenth round. A California transplant, he grew up in the Los Angeles area and began his career at Southern California, where he was solid but unspectacular, then broke out to slash .298/.401/.541 with eleven home runs and a 52/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in his lone season in Austin. Standing 6'1", Guillemette has a classic catcher's profile with a sturdy frame, some pop, and the ability to control the strike zone. His pure bat to ball skills are average and he did strike out close to 20% of the time in 2023, so the bat likely limits his ultimate ceiling to that of a backup catcher. He's fairly strong behind the plate, with a good arm and the defensive feel for the game to stick.

16-494: C Will Bush, Tyler JC [TX] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Will Bush gives the Astros a fourth player with Texas ties. A native of North Richland Hills in the Fort Worth area, he attended Tyler Community College in East Texas and raked to the tune of a .357/.510/.617 slash line, eight home runs, and a 35/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. Moving on to the MLB Draft League this summer, he hit just .185/.313/.185 in a seven game sample. Just a freshman, he only turned 19 in March and comes with much more boom/bust potential than Garret Guillemette. Bush is big and strong at 6'4", 230 pounds, with big raw power from the left side that he's still learning to tap in games. A patient hitter, he walked at a sky-high 23.7% clip for Tyler JC this spring, and continued to draw walks in the MLB Draft League even if the rest of the production wasn't really there. He's otherwise raw at the plate, with a very open stance and a high hand set that may or may not need to be tweaked in pro ball. It's a similar story behind the plate, with a strong arm that will help keep him back there.

2023 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

Steve Cohen's massive spending spree pushed the Mets' first pick back to #32, but they still landed a consensus first round talent in Colin Houck for a surprisingly reasonable signing bonus. They did get two extra picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, and they also got an extra third round pick for failing to sign Brandon Sproat last year (who they ironically drafted again this year). The two major themes of this packed draft class were college pitchers and high school shortstops, with each of the Mets' first eleven picks falling into those categories. Behind Houck, New York also drafted A.J. Ewing and Boston Baro, the three of whom combined to sign for over $800,000 above their respective slot values. I'm a big fan of the Houck pick, personally, and I think that pick makes the Mets' draft.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-32: SS Colin Houck, Parkview HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: $2.61 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($142,500 above slot value).
My rank: #13. MLB Pipeline: #12. Baseball America: #21. Prospects Live: #18.
Arguably the best prep shortstop in the country, Colin Houck somehow made it to the Mets at pick #32 despite buzz he could go as high as the top ten. Perhaps even more surprisingly, he only signed for slightly above slot value, with his $2.75 million bonus sitting between the values of the 29th and 30th picks. This all amounts to a huge coup for the Mets, as Houck is as talented as they come. The Atlanta-area product is an excellent athlete who had Division I football offers as a quarterback, and that athleticism translates seamlessly to the diamond. He's a well-rounded hitter with more polish at the plate than you'd expect from a two-sport star, showing the ability to recognize offspeed stuff and work counts effectively. Utilizing a clean, powerful right handed swing, he shows off above average power in games, especially this spring where he teed off against strong Atlanta-area competition. Some swing and miss can occasionally creep into his game when he gets too big and tries to yank balls to the moon, though he usually does a good job of staying within himself and he's a very impactful hitter when he does. Defensively, Houck shows off the plus arm that served him well on the football field, and his athleticism helps him make all the plays at shortstop. He's more of an average runner than a plus one, so there is the potential that he gets forced to third base by a better defender, but the Mets will give him every shot to stick at shortstop and it's very possible that renewed focus on baseball alone could help him pull his defensive game together fully. Houck had been committed to Mississippi State before the Mets brought him on.

2-56: RHP Brandon Sproat, Florida {video}
Slot value: $1.47 million. Signing bonus: $1.47 million.
My rank: #88. MLB Pipeline: #54. Baseball America: #48. Prospects Live: #48.
A year ago, the Mets drafted Brandon Sproat in the third round at 90th overall, but couldn't come to terms with him and he was the second highest pick to go unsigned, behind fellow Mets 2023 draftee Nolan McLean. This time, they got the deal done at slot value and they'll get an older, wiser, more developed version of Sproat. One of the major concerns that held his stock back was a low 21.5% strikeout rate in 2022, but he bumped that up to 28.8% in 2023 while holding down a 4.66 ERA across over one hundred innings. He's all about the arm strength, sitting in the mid 90's deep into his starts and touching as high as 101 in short bursts. The fastball can get straight, often playing below its impressive velocity, but he does have a full arsenal of secondaries to keep hitters off balance. The Pensacola-area native shows solid feel to spin the ball, with his slider likely ahead of his curveball and a cutter to go with them, though he really stands out for an above average changeup that plays very well off his fastball. Sproat is more control over command and his walk rate ticked up to 10.3% in 2023 from 8.6% a year ago. The 6'3" righty also has some effort and moving parts in his delivery, including a double leg break as he extends towards the plate, that might point to a future in the bullpen, but he has so much present arm strength that he still maintains his stuff over longer outings. In drafting him this early despite turning 23 in September, the Mets are buying in on Sproat as a starting pitcher and hoping they can find a way to add some bat-missing qualities to his fastball. Given his age, he'll want to move fairly quickly.

3-91: RHP/OF Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $747,600. Signing bonus: $747,600.
My rank: #184. MLB Pipeline: #97. Baseball America: #184. Prospects Live: #289.
Ironically, the only player drafted higher than Brandon Sproat last year to go unsigned was Nolan McLean, the Orioles' third round pick at #81 overall. Even more ironically, this pick is actually compensation for failing to sign Sproat last year. McLean is very well known to scouts, having been an early round draft prospect out of high school in the Raleigh area in 2020 before being draft eligible as a sophomore in 2022 and again as a junior in 2023. A year ago, it was seen as a tossup whether he'd be a hitter or a pitcher in pro ball, maybe leaning pitcher, and though the Mets drafted him as a two-way player, his future likely lies on the mound. After mostly working one inning at a time in 2022, he earned a longer leash and often went three to four innings in his outings in 2023. There is plenty of arm strength here, as he can sit in the mid 90's in short stints while topping out around 98, with nice running life to boot. He has steadily improved his feel for spin and his slider now flashes plus, while his curveball and changeup are usable pitches as well. Like Sproat, McLean is more control over command but has looked more polished as he's gotten more innings under his belt. A tremendous athlete, the 6'4" righty originally committed to Oklahoma State as a quarterback as well, so he has projection remaining and moves well on the mound. Most of the signs point to him being a reliever in the long run, but if the Mets are taking him in the third round and have him give up hitting, they may have hopes of trying to stretch him out. The Mets did draft him as a two-way player, and there is certainly talent on that side of the ball as well. He has massive raw power, as evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field home run last year, and has clubbed 36 home runs over his three years in Stillwater. He's also a patient hitter, running low chase rates and walking at a very healthy 17.6% clip in 2023. However, McLean has a very grooved swing and struggles to make contact even on pitches over the plate, with his 107 strikeouts in 2022 setting a Division I record and his 37.3% strikeout rate in 2023 being equally as frightening. It's hard for me to see him tapping his power in pro ball with swing and miss issues like that. Defensively, Oklahoma State moved him to the outfield in 2023 to take pressure off his arm, but he is athletic enough to handle third base. I expect him to move to pitching full time sooner rather than later.

3-101: RHP Kade Morris, Nevada {video}
Slot value: $666,500. Signing bonus: $666,500.
My rank: #119. MLB Pipeline: #142. Baseball America: #166. Prospects Live: #123.
Kade Morris gives the Mets an interesting arm to play with. Earning a bigger and bigger role at Nevada every year, he served as the Wolfpack's Friday night starter this spring with solid results, posting a 5.42 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings despite playing in one of college baseball's most hitter-friendly environments. Morris sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 97 at best, though the pitch has modest life and gets hit when he leaves it over the plate. He drops in an above average slider that functions as his main bat misser, while his deeper curveball looks like an average pitch and his changeup has made nice progress in Reno. He improved his strikeout rate from 18.5% as a sophomore to 22.5% as a junior, but it's still a lower number than you'd expect given his stuff and the Mets will want to find a way to help him continue that upward trend. The 6'3" righty still has projection remaining and is a very good athlete on the mound, giving New York a lot to work with to help him on his progression towards becoming a major league starting pitcher. He doesn't walk a lot of hitters and I think all the ingredients are there save for a lack of deception. The Central Valley native is also on the younger side for the class, nearly a year younger than Nolan McLean, signed for full slot value.

4-123: RHP Wyatt Hudepohl, Charlotte {video}
Slot value: $536,500. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #299. Prospects Live: #216.
Wyatt Hudepohl pitched two seasons at Kentucky, then transferred to Charlotte this spring where he has stepped into a larger role. Making seventeen starts, he posted a 4.27 ERA and a 129/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings, including a seventeen strikeout complete game against Old Dominion and five more double digit strikeout games after that, including in the Clemson Regional against Lipscomb. The stuff here is pretty interesting – Hudepohl sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 95-96 at best with nice riding action, while adding a power curveball and a hard changeup with nice fade. He can also work the fastball into a cutter. The entire four pitch mix plays as at least average to above average, and when it's all working, he can be impossible to hit as you can see from the numbers above. The 6'4" righty has some effort in his delivery, getting deep into his back leg before pushing off towards the plate, but has shown the ability to maintain his stuff and control over long outings while leaning on his offspeed and should get a shot to crack it as a starter. He has a chance to be a solid #4.

4C-134: SS A.J. Ewing, Springboro HS [OH] {video}
Slot value: $483,000. Signing bonus: $675,000 ($192,000 above slot value).
My rank: #139. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #171. Prospects Live: #101.
A.J. Ewing was a favorite of many evaluators before the draft, and it looks like the Mets were big fans too. The second straight pick out of the Cincinnati area, Ewing showed very well on the showcase circuit and continued to perform back in Ohio, steadily climbing up boards. He's very skinny at a listed 6', 160 pounds, but stands out for springy athleticism on top of his track record of performance. Ewing can really whip the barrel through the zone for a kid his size and has shown nice pull side power with metal bats, and if he can tack on 15-20 pounds of muscle in pro ball, it should play with wood as well. He can handle quality offspeed stuff and moves well in the box in general, making him a very projectable hitter to dream on. In the field, his athleticism is apparent on the dirt and the Mets will send him out as a shortstop, though he needs to use a longer arm stroke to make throws on balls to his right and may fit better at second base, where he can more easily flick the ball to first base. This profile hinges on added physicality as he matures, which would help both in the power and defense departments. He's a little old for the class already. Previously committed to Alabama, he signed for nearly $200,000 above slot value.

4C-135: RHP Austin Troesser, Missouri {video}
Slot value: $478,200. Signing bonus: $350,000 ($128,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #143.
Austin Troesser didn't get much love on public boards (credit to Prospects Live for being in on him), and he wound up signing for early sixth round money here at the end of the fourth round. Troesser has been a valuable member of the Missouri bullpen the past two seasons, and in 2023 put up a 4.73 ERA and a 53/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings for the Tigers. He primarily stands out for a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to around 98 at best, playing up with riding life and helping him miss a high number of bats. The slider is a little more inconsistent at this point but has looked good at times, while he hasn't really needed much of a changeup in the bullpen. He'll stay in the bullpen going forward, where the Mets will look to help him continue adding velocity and find consistent feel for that slider. The 6'3" righty has thrown strikes in his career at Missouri and profiles as a medium leverage reliever.

5-159: LHP Zach Thornton, Grand Canyon {video}
Slot value: $378,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #165. Baseball America: #190. Prospects Live: #142.
Zach Thornton was on the annual shortlist of names I would have researched if I had a few more days before the draft. Every year you have to cut it off somewhere, and Thornton just missed. He put up a great season at Grand Canyon, posting a 3.87 ERA and a 91/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings, numbers which look even better when you consider college baseball's offense-friendly environment this year. The stuff isn't all that loud, with a fastball hovering around 90, touching 94, a pair of breaking balls that stand out more for their depth than their velocity, and a seldom-used changeup. Instead, the calling card is his pitchability, as the Kansas native mixes his pitches exceptionally well to keep hitters constantly off balance. He gets the kind of swings you see when position players pitch in MLB and mix 85 MPH fastballs with 38 MPH eephuses, which is also a testament to the deception in his delivery. To succeed in pro ball, the 6'3" lefty will have to add considerable strength to his lanky frame. If he can get his fastball more consistently into the low 90's and add some power to his breaking balls, he becomes a very interesting back-end starting pitching prospect. For now, he'll likely go torment low minors hitters used to seeing poorly located 96 instead of deceptive 89.

8-246: SS Boston Baro, Capistrano Valley HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $192,900. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($507,100 above slot value).
My rank: #181. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #98. Prospects Live: #127.
In their biggest over slot splurge of the draft, the Mets went and spent late third round money to sign eighth rounder Boston Baro away from a UCLA commitment, where he would have been competing for playing time with one of the top incoming shortstop recruits in the country in Roman Martin. Baro is an advanced prospect for a high schooler, taking impressively professional at bats and performing very well against strong Southern California pitching this spring. Very skinny at 6'2", there is very little impact power in the bat at this point from a line drive approach, though the Mets hope that he can get to fringy power in time as he fills out. Doing so would elevate the profile considerably. He's very light on his feet at shortstop and moves well to both sides, making all the plays consistently with enough arm strength to make it work. He figures to stay at shortstop initially, though in competing with Colin Houck and A.J. Ewing from this class alone, he may be forced to second base in the long term. Like Houck and Ewing, Baro is on the older side for the class and will be 19 before his first professional season is through.

9-276: 3B Nick Lorusso, Maryland {video}
Slot value: $175,100. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($125,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #292. Prospects Live: #194.
The Mets went with a bit of a hometown pick in Nick Lorusso, who grew up in Monroe in Fairfield County, Connecticut a little northeast of New York City. He began his college career at Villanova, where he had a solid but unremarkable three years. Since he transferred to Maryland in 2022, though, he's been a different hitter. After hitting five home runs in three years at Villanova, he broke out for fifteen in 2022, then in 2023 had one of the better offensive seasons in the country by slashing .379/.446/.765 with 26 home runs and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. Lorusso is strongly built at 6'2" and effectively channels that strength into a powerful right handed swing, with impressive batted ball data that should continue to play with wood. Against moderately strong pitching in the Big Ten, he hammered all kinds of pitches and looked like an advanced hitter in the box, which should be expected given that he'll turn 23 in September. A third baseman at Maryland, he's just alright over there and may ultimately move to first base, where his bat should profile just fine. Lorusso will want to move quickly given his age but he did provide the Mets with $125,100 in savings.

12-366: RHP Brady Kirtner, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #428.
Brady Kirtner is a pure reliever profile, but an interesting one nonetheless to nab here in the twelfth round. A local kid from Christiansburg who stayed home to attend Virginia Tech just down the road, he didn't get into a game as a true freshman and had an uneven redshirt freshman season in 2022, but took a step forward in 2023 with a 4.62 ERA and a 36/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. Kirtner sits in the mid 90's with his fastball in short stints, up to around 96 with nice riding action, while his slider flashes nice late bite at times and can generate ugly swings with high spin. Skinny at 5'11" and utilizing an uptempo delivery, he's unlikely to make the transition to the rotation especially considering his shallow arsenal and fringy command. But he's trending in the right direction and if the Mets can help him continue down that path, perhaps by adding a little more velocity and improving his command by smoothing out the delivery a little, he has a future as a fastball/slider reliever in Flushing.

13-396: RHP Ben Simon, Elon {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
There is not a ton of information out there on Ben Simon, but I wanted to highlight him quickly as another hometown pick. Simon grew up in East Windsor in Central Jersey and attended nearby Highstown High School along the Jersey Turnpike a little east of Trenton. After an up and down freshman season, he has been a valuable reliever at Elon the past two seasons with a combined 3.36 ERA and a 68/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings. At 5'11", he's mostly physically maxed out and likely remains in the bullpen with average control. I only found video of him throwing two pitches, both riding fastballs up and away from lefties for strikeouts from what looks like a moderately low release.

19-576: RHP Christian Little, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #197. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #306. Prospects Live: #161.
It's unlikely that Christian Little signs here, but he's a famous name and deserves a spot in this writeup. One of the top high school pitchers in the entire class in 2021, he instead reclassified and enrolled early at Vanderbilt at just 17 years old. He held his own in two seasons as a swingman for the Commodores, then transferred to LSU for his junior season in 2023 where things did not quite go as planned, with a 7.79 ERA and a 42/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings. Little has plenty of stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 98 with his fastball, also showing the ability to cut it in the upper 80's. His offspeed stuff is inconsistent, though the slider flashes above average and he also shows a curveball and changeup. The biggest thing holding him back has been command, as he regularly falls behind in the count and has to find a way to dig himself out. The delivery can get rigid, which doesn't help, and now in three years in the SEC he has not progressed as a prospect. The good news is that not only is the arm strength absolutely still there, but he is also extremely young for the class, nearly three years younger than Brandon Sproat and still nearly two years younger than some college juniors. If he goes back to LSU for another season, which it looks like he will, he'll still be young for the class in 2024.

2023 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

Full list of draftees

Luxury tax penalties pushed the Dodgers' first pick outside the top 35 for the second year in a row, but they're one of the best teams in the league at drafting and developing so they can withstand the bump. Last year, they picked Louisville's Dalton Rushing with their first pick at #40 overall, and all he has done since is tear the cover off the ball in the low minors and looks like a steal already. And though they had that first pick pushed back, they did get two extra picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Trea Turner and Tyler Anderson to free agency. Overall, this class leans on athleticism more so than present physicality and projection, with many draftees clocking in at 170 pounds or less. The Dodgers are looking for unique, unteachable traits that they can then leverage in their excellent player development system, something they've had a lot of success with in the past.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-36: OF Kendall George, Atascocita HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $2.36 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #68. MLB Pipeline: #65. Baseball America: #114. Prospects Live: #59.
If you look at most public boards, mine included, this pick may appear to be a bit of a reach. But we know better than to question the Dodgers' draft strategy at this point. Kendall George is a legitimate talent that rode a very loud spring down in the Houston area to this high pick. He has always been a plus-plus runner, a tool which carries his profile and especially adds value in today's game with more stolen base attempts. After looking overmatched last summer on the showcase circuit, he looked like a different ballplayer this spring and rocketed up draft boards. He's not the biggest kid in the world at a skinny 5'10", but he has lightning quick hands that whip the barrel through the zone with authority and help him pack more punch than you'd expect. The power is well below average for now and home runs will never be a primary part of his game, but as he fills out a little bit that explosive bat could help him tap 10-12 home runs per season down the line. The swing works well to all fields and lends confidence that he can continue to get on base regularly in pro ball. Defensively, the speed makes him an asset in center field, though he doesn't have much of an arm. George projects as a top of the lineup table setter that can wreak havoc on opposing pitchers and catchers, with enough pop to keep pitchers honest and great defense in center field. He's committed to Arkansas and at this point in the draft, I wouldn't expect his bonus demands to be too outlandish.

2-60: 3B Jake Gelof, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $1.34 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #54. MLB Pipeline: #35. Baseball America: #40. Prospects Live: #74.
Jake Gelof had an unremarkable freshman year at UVA, but over the past two seasons he has been without question one of the best hitters in the ACC, slashing .347/.450/.735 with 44 home runs over 123 games. The younger brother of A's rookie and Team Israel veteran Zack Gelof, Jake's bat packs a little more punch than his brother's in exchange for being slightly less of a pure hitter. The younger Gelof takes huge hacks from the right side, getting to baseballs all over the zone with his arms extended and catching them out front to elevate with authority. Despite the big hacks, he has very strong feel for the barrel and projects as a potential average pure hitter, with a fairly patient approach and solid contact rates. Although not very projectable, he's plenty strong right now with a filled out 6'1" frame and shows plus raw power already. It's the kind of bat that profiles in the middle of the order at his ceiling so long as he continues to make contact and control the zone against more advanced pitching. Defensively, he has shown well at third base and has enough arm to stick over there, though he has heavy feet and may move to first base if he slows down at all with age. That will put more pressure on the bat, but you don't put up the numbers he did in the ACC by accident. This is a little later than he was expected to get drafted but as a college player, I imagine he'll probably sign around slot value.

3-95: RHP Brady Smith, Grainger HS [TN] {video}
Slot value: $705,500. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #192. MLB Pipeline: #138. Baseball America: #422. Prospects Live: #313.
In the third round, the Dodgers went down to Northeast Tennessee to grab a skinny right hander with big time stuff and athleticism. Many in the industry saw Brady Smith as a candidate to get to college at Virginia Tech and fill out a little bit, but the Dodgers bit early and will see what they make him into. Smith currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 95 with flat plane and carry that makes it play up. He shows real feel to spin a breaking ball, with a sharp curveball and an improving slider in addition to a decent changeup. It all comes from a very skinny 6'2" frame that has some room to fill out, though for now he's not overly physical. Smith is also a great athlete that gets down the mound well with great extension. There's a lot to like in the whole package between the loose arm, feel for spin, and athleticism, though his development does hinge on his physical development. He'll need to add about twenty pounds of muscle to stick as a starting pitcher and withstand a full season's workload, something the Dodgers have plenty of experience with in the arms they've developed. This is probably the best possible landing spot for the kid from Bean Station, Tennessee. This is earlier than he was expected to get drafted, but with that Virginia Tech commitment in hand, I imagine he'll still require more than the $705,500 slot value to sign.

4-127: LHP Wyatt Crowell, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $516,800. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #127. MLB Pipeline: #112. Baseball America: #135. Prospects Live: #228.
Wyatt Crowell is a very interesting one. A key member of the Florida State bullpen as a sophomore in 2022 (2.12 ERA, 72/17 K/BB in 51 IP), he was poised to step into the rotation after the Seminoles lost their entire weekend rotation to the draft and transfer portal. Crowell showed extremely well in fall practice to push himself into second round consideration, but his velocity backed up as a junior and he ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery. In short stints, the Atlanta-area native can sit in the mid 90's and touch 98 with his running fastball, though this spring it dipped closer to 90 in longer outings. Still, he managed to put up a strong, albeit brief season (0.87 ERA, 33/11 K/BB in 20.2 IP) on the strength of his plus slider, a deadly offering that misses bats in bunches. He has worked in a curveball and a changeup at times before, but right now the money is on the slider. Before his injury, Crowell showed great ability to harness his lively stuff with average albeit inconsistent command, utilizing a loose delivery and an athletic frame. Like Brady Smith, he's not very physical at all, with less projection in his skinny 6' frame. The size, combined with his uneven 2023 and the surgery, makes his future in a major league rotation a big question mark. The Dodgers tend to blur the line between starter and reliever anyways, and he likely profiles as a slider-heavy lefty long reliever in the long term. I'm very interested to see where Los Angeles goes with this one once he gets healthy next spring. I imagine he may require a little bit above slot value to sign.

4C-136: OF Dylan Campbell, Texas {video}
Slot value: $473,700. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #164. MLB Pipeline: #171. Baseball America: #360. Prospects Live: #189.
Dylan Campbell struck me as a guy that would get drafted earlier than most public boards had him, and that turned out to be the case. He has gotten better and better every year at Texas and put up a career year in 2023, slashing .339/.436/.603 with 13 home runs and a 43/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, at one point riding a 38 game hitting streak. Though he may not have the highest upside in this class for the Dodgers, he does nearly everything well on the diamond starting with a patient approach in the box and a simple right handed swing that helps him get the barrel to the ball extremely consistently. He packs plenty of strength into his 5'11" frame, showing off average power in games despite rarely selling out to get to it. He actually performed better against his Big 12 schedule (.385/.455/.667) than he did overall, showing a scalable offensive profile that should be able to transition easily to pro pitching. Ultimately, he may not project to be more than a platoon bat/fourth outfielder, but he'll be a good one. In the field, the Houston native is a good runner with a plus arm (as evidenced by this incredible throw in the Stanford Super Regional) that will fit well in right field and should be able to handle center in a reserve role. It's about as well-rounded a profile as you're going to find in this range of the draft. In this range of the draft, he might take a slight under slot deal, but as a junior I don't imagine it will be too steep of a discount.

4C-137: RHP Eriq Swan, Middle Tennessee State {video}
Slot value: $469,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #240. Baseball America: #209. Prospects Live: #263.
Eriq Swan is a project for the Dodgers, but they're always up for those. After two unremarkable seasons at Middle Tennessee State, he broke out with three excellent appearances in the Cape Cod League last summer, but promptly put up a 6.49 ERA and a 71/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings as a junior back in Murfreesboro. Swan is all arm strength, comfortably sitting in the mid to upper 90's over long starts and touching as high as 101 with his fastball. It lacks deception, though, and plays down from its velocity. He shows flashes with a hard, downer slider and a fading changeup, but they're inconsistent for him right now. The biggest issue with Swan is his below average command, which leads to him falling behind in the count and letting hitters sit on his fastball, which is hittable over the plate when hitters know it's coming. The 6'6" righty has short arm action and doesn't have too much wasted movement in his delivery, but Los Angeles will have to find a way to get him in the strike zone more consistently, both with his fastball and with his offspeed stuff. Swan looks like a reliever in pro ball, where he could sit around 100 with his fastball and not worry so much about hitting spots exactly. He hasn't signed yet but I don't imagine he'll be too terribly expensive in this range.

5-163: 1B Joe Vetrano, Boston College {video}
Slot value: $364,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #186. Baseball America: #318. Prospects Live: #240.
Joe Vetrano climbed prospect lists with a hot run at the end of the season, and was one of the next players I would have looked more closely at if I had more time before the draft. Like Dylan Campbell above him, he's gotten better and better every year at Boston College and had his best yet in 2023, slashing .315/.407/.671 with 22 home runs and a 58/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Vetrano takes thunderous hacks from the left side, showing off plus-plus raw power from a strong 6'3" frame and tapping it consistently in games. He's fairly aggressive and shows more swing and miss than you'd like from a first baseman, but with his power that's a tradeoff the Dodgers will make. A former pitcher, Vetrano shows off a strong arm but will likely wind up an average defender at first base, where his bat will have to carry him. He profiles as a platoon or bench bat, but the power gives him considerable upside. He won't be too expensive a sign at this range in the draft.

9-280: RHP Ryan Brown, Ball State {video}
Slot value: $173,600. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #237. Baseball America: #265. Prospects Live: #249.
This feels like a classic later round Dodgers pick. Ryan Brown has a lot he does well, but he also has a lot he does not do well, and the Dodgers have a strong track record with these types of arms. After redshirting his true freshman season, he showed well as a reliever during his redshirt freshman season at Ball State (2.14 ERA, 65/38 K/BB in 46.1 IP) and got off to a red hot start in 2023, striking out 27 of the 43 batters he faced (62.8%!) over his first three appearances against Charlotte, Rutgers, and Canisius. However, his season got a bit derailed from there, as he ran into a buzzsaw at Wake Forest, later hurt his knee, then eventually went down with Tommy John surgery, finishing the season with a 4.76 ERA and nearly a walk per inning. Brown sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 96 with the flat plane and carry the Dodgers love and do well with. He spins in a fringy slider that he lacks feel for, but his go-to out pitch is a plus-plus splitter that left MAC hitters simply confounded. The 6'2" righty is athletic on the mound but has a lot of moving parts in his delivery, leading to below average command that often ends up with him leaving his pitches up, spiking them in the dirt, and falling behind in the count. The Dodgers will look to clean up that delivery and help get him executing his pitches more effectively, which given the athleticism and arm talent should be a doable task. Brown is also young for the class and won't turn 21 until October, so he'll still have plenty of time to work through things once he comes back from surgery. He profiles best as a reliever in the mold of a fellow small Indiana school-turned Dodger, Ryan Pepiot, though Pepiot has managed to stay in the rotation with better feel for spin. Brown has not signed yet and it's hard to project what it will take to get him to do so.

15-460: SS Jordan Thompson, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #377. Prospects Live: #326.
It took fifteen rounds, but the Dodgers finally got their first Californian with their seventeenth pick. Jordan Thompson hails from Chula Vista in the San Diego area, but headed across the country to play at LSU and ultimately win a National Championship. He's a three year starter at shortstop for the Tigers, proving central to the team's recent success. He's a loose bodied defender with great range and buttery smooth actions around the dirt, and during LSU's run towards the championship, head coach Jay Johnson actually shifted him back and forth between shortstop and second base depending on where he thought the batter was more likely to hit the ball. This may have been to Thompson's detriment as he made numerous unforced errors in that time, but it doesn't change his reputation as one of the better gloves in the class. At the plate, he doesn't necessarily stand out, with a career .260/.363/.419 slash line and 25 home runs over 195 games. Despite standing 6'1", he's not very physical and employs a line drive approach with a loose right handed swing. He can turn on the ball for moderate power with metal bats, but it remains to be seen how that power will play with wood, with below average power the most likely outcome. He has a moderately patient approach, but struck out at a 22.7% rate in 2023 and might be a fringy pure hitter as well. There's not a ton of offensive upside, so the Dodgers are buying the slick glove with the hope that his extensive experience against premium pitching in the SEC will translate to enough offensive impact that he can hold down a utility infielder role. And who knows, with his athletic frame and the Dodgers' player development system, they could change his approach in the box to help him attack pitches with more intent and tap a little more power.

18-550: LHP Sterling Patick, West Hills HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Sterling Patick wasn't ranked by any major outlet and seems like a candidate to get to school at UC Santa Barbara, but the Dodgers took him here in the eighteenth round just in case they could find the money to change his mind. He's a hometown kid, coming out of South Hills High School in West Covina, about twenty miles east of Dodger Stadium on I-10. Patick sits in the upper 80's with his fastball for now, touching 91 with crossfire angle. He drops in a big, looping curveball with two-plane bite similar to Reid Detmers when he grips it right, and does possess a changeup. It's a pretty free and easy delivery from a very skinny 6'1" frame that has room to get stronger, and he's young for the class which helps the projection a little bit. Patick will need to add considerable physicality to his frame in order to add velocity to both his fastball and his offspeed stuff and make it as a starter.

20-610: TWP/QB D.J. Uiagalelei, Oregon State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
To be honest, I know nothing about D.J. Uiagalelei as a baseball player and I don't feel inclined to research it, but this is certainly a unique pick. Uiagalelei was reportedly up to the mid 90's with his fastball in high school and the Dodgers appear to be interested in giving him a shot to pitch if his football career doesn't work out. For now, the former St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA) star is competing for the quarterback position at Oregon State after transferring from Clemson, where most college football fans likely heard his name or saw him play.

2023 MLB Draft Team by Team Reviews

Below you will find the links to all thirty of my team by team 2023 MLB Draft reviews as they are posted. I will work in reverse order of the team's first pick, starting with the Dodgers and finishing with the Pirates. You can access my full draft rankings here.

Arizona Diamondbacks (published 9/2)

Atlanta Braves (published 7/27)

Baltimore Orioles (published 8/24)

Boston Red Sox (published 8/29)

Chicago Cubs (published 9/1)

Chicago White Sox (published 8/27)

Cincinnati Reds (published 9/11)

Cleveland Guardians (published 7/31)

Colorado Rockies (published 9/8)

Detroit Tigers (published 9/21)

Houston Astros (published 7/16)

Kansas City Royals (published 9/10)

Los Angeles Angels (published 9/3)

Los Angeles Dodgers (published 7/14)

Miami Marlins (published 9/4)

Milwaukee Brewers (published 8/21)

Minnesota Twins (published 9/17)

New York Mets (published 7/15)

New York Yankees (published 7/22)

Oakland Athletics (published 9/15)

Philadelphia Phillies (published 7/18)

Pittsburgh Pirates (published 9/24)

San Diego Padres (published 7/23)

San Francisco Giants (published 8/26)

Seattle Mariners (published 8/2)

St. Louis Cardinals (published 8/4)

Tampa Bay Rays (published 8/12)

Texas Rangers (published 9/19)

Toronto Blue Jays (published 8/6)

Washington Nationals (published 9/23)

2023 MLB Draft: an updated look at the Nationals' #2 Pick

Before the season started, I explored ten options for the Nationals with the second overall pick while also taking a look at their recent draft history. A few months later, the picture remains fairly similar, but with the draft fast approaching in three months, we can start to feel a little more comfortable predicting those names. 

At this point, I would put about six names firmly in the mix - a quartet of SEC stars and a pair of high school outfielders. Of course, things can and will change between now and July, but if the draft were today, I would give it a ~90% shot that the pick is one of these six names. There's always the chance they could go under slot and save money to spend later, but given the fact that they won't be able to pick higher than tenth next season, plus their history of usually paying at least full slot in the first round, I doubt it. Let's take a look at those six names.

Number next to every player indicates their rank on my most recent draft board update.

OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State (#1)
Dylan Crews entered the season as more or less the top prospect in the class, and he's only cemented it so far this spring by slashing .510/.645/.882 through 31 games (yes, you read that right). It will be very, very difficult for the Pirates to pass up his generational bat with the first overall pick, but if they do, the Nationals should be all over him. Crews hits the ball harder than anybody in college baseball, spraying scorching line drives around the the field with incredible consistency, giving him potential 70 grade power in pro ball. Additionally, he's taken a step forward this spring as a pure hitter, controlling the strike zone with a professional approach and rarely missing on pitches in the zone. On the rare occasions in which he does, he makes great adjustments throughout his at bats and won't get fooled twice, which keeps the strikeouts way down. He hammers velocity, recognizes and waits back on offspeed, and is more or less impossible to get out. While his bat stands out more than his glove, he's a solid defender that has shown well in center field this spring and would fit well in a corner with that deep crop of young outfielders the Nationals possess. He should fly through the minors and could be in Washington by the end of the 2024 season with the potential for 30+ home runs annually and .400+ on-base percentages.

OF Wyatt Langford, Florida (#2)
While they're built differently as athletes and get to their production in different ways, the end result for Wyatt Langford is starkly similar to Crews and would make for a great consolation prize if the Pirates do indeed nab the LSU outfielder. After barely playing as a freshman, he has torn up the SEC over the past two seasons with huge numbers and shows no sign of slowing down now that he's back from a lower body injury that cost him a couple weeks in March. Like Crews, Langford shows plus-plus raw power from the right side and taps it consistently in games, though Crews gets to his peak exit velocities a little more frequently. Which of course is no knock on Langford, and more just another example of how elite Crews is. While Crews is whippier and more rotational in the box, Langford's power comes more from pure strength and leverage. Like Crews, he has great feel for the barrel and controls his at bats extremely well, rarely chasing and forcing pitchers to come to him. It's a plus hit tool that could help him tap 30+ home runs annually while getting on base at a high clip, hitting in the middle of the order. He also has a similar defensive profile to Crews, sliding over to center field this year now that the elite Jud Fabian is gone to the Orioles' system. He's a surprisingly strong runner for his size and might have a better shot to stick in center than Crews, though Crews has a better arm and would provide more value in a corner.

RHP Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (#4)
At this point, Paul Skenes feels like the most likely pick here as an elite, safe bet, high ceiling college arm with a traditional profile. He has consistently gotten better and better and better and now looks like a potential generational talent on the mound. In fact, if pitchers weren't so inherently risky nowadays, I would have him as the #2 prospect on this list. A transfer from Air Force, he has turned himself into a monster on the mound for LSU and through eight starts he has a 1.14 ERA and a 91/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.1 innings, good for a 52.9% strikeout rate. To put that in perspective, the highest strikeout rate of any college pitcher taken in the first round last year was Cooper Hjerpe's 39.6% - and his 161 strikeouts led all of Division I. He does it with a fastball that now sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 102, and he can run it or let it ride depending on the situation but usually opts for the former. Skenes' slider has taken a massive step forward this season as well, adding significant sweep while maintaining its hard upper 80's velocity. It's a pitch that could strike out major league hitters today. This spring, he's also shown feel to work it into more of a power curve with short, vertical bite. His changeup has long been a star pitch as well and profiles as plus with great fading action, but he's gone more to the slider this spring because, well, nobody can hit it no matter how much he throws it. With a big, durable frame, above average command, and that service academy work ethic, he seems like as safe a bet as you can get from a pitcher. I would have a really, really hard time seeing Mike Rizzo pass on Paul Skenes if he's available at the second overall pick.

RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (#5)
Paul Skenes has taken a massive step forward this spring. Crews and Langford also look like better hitters than they were a year ago, and that's saying something considering the kind of 2022 seasons they had. Meanwhile, Chase Dollander is the only player in this quartet to take a step backwards this season, but he remains an elite prospect. After posting a 2.39 ERA and a 4.2% walk rate last year, he's up to a a 4.19 ERA and a 7.7% walk rate this year, while his strikeout rate has held steady around 35%. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and runs it up to 98, and while last year it showed explosive riding action that made it a plus-plus pitch, it has played more as straight plus this spring with moderate riding life. He still snaps off a nasty, plus slider with hard sweeping action, while also flipping in a more traditional curveball and changeup. He's a very good athlete on the mound that gets great extension to help his pitches play up further, with above average command to both sides of the plate even as he's taken a slight step backwards in that regard. It's still a profile with four average or better pitches, two of which are plus, and above average command from an athletic, durable frame, with plenty of upside especially if he recaptures his 2022 magic. He has every bit as much of a chance to be an ace as Paul Skenes, with potentially a little more variance in the profile. At this point, he's trending in the wrong direction and Mike Rizzo probably prefers Skenes at this point at second overall, but if he gets hot down the stretch, he'll certainly be in play.

OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [TX] (#3)

Playing in colder weather in central Indiana, Max Clark just got going recently, so there's not much to update on since the preseason writeup. He's still a potential five tool player with an extremely projectable frame and the ability to impact the game in a wide variety of ways. Previously more of a line drive, gap to gap hitter that let his power come naturally, he is showing a little bit more loft in his swing this spring that could help him tap additional power as he grows into it. And he'll certainly grow into it, with a very projectable 6'1" frame and natural leverage in his left handed swing. Given his prodigious hit tool, which has him taking great at bats against high level pitching, recognizing spin, and using the whole field with ease, I don't think this added loft will cause any level of concerning swing and miss. Looking at current Nationals outfielders, he's not quite as big as James Wood or Elijah Green and will never have quite as much power, but he's a better pure hitter than both and has the speed to stick in center field. He's a prime candidate to progress naturally and get steadily better as he rises through the system, and he may not require as much patience as the average prep because of how advanced he is right now. I haven't heard his name thrown around as much for the Nationals but I would be thrilled if he was the pick. He's committed to Vanderbilt and will not come cheap.

OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] (#6)
As with Max Clark, we don't have a huge sample size for Walker Jenkins quite yet but he has been going a little longer in coastal North Carolina. And in the early going, the returns have been very impressive. Impressive enough that the Nationals draft a high school bat in the first round for the third year in a row, and a high school outfielder for the second year in a row? It's tough to say, but it's a good problem to have. Jenkins has more power than Clark and is probably more similar to Wyatt Langford as a prospect, though he has the advantage of batting left handed. It's comfortably plus raw power that he taps in games from a very strong 6'3" frame, a "big league body" as they say, and natural loft and leverage in his left handed swing. He never needs to sell out for home runs, which has helped him grow as a pure hitter as well with a disciplined approach and improving pitch recognition. The pure hit tool is still probably a bit behind that of Langford, Clark, and Dylan Crews, but he's also the youngest player in this set of six and he has had no problem with advanced pitching wherever he has gone. Jenkins has been dinged up by injuries at times in the past, but he's fully healthy now and that shouldn't be an issue. He profiles similar to Crews as a defender, with some speed and a strong arm that will make him an asset in right field. At this point, the Nationals will probably lean on the SEC track record of Crews or Langford if they're going to draft a bat, but Jenkins' combination of youth, physicality, and performance would be tough to pass up if perhaps they wanted to cut a deal. He is committed to North Carolina.

2023 MLB Draft: Ten options for the Nationals at second overall

Had draft order rules not changed with the most recent CBA, the Nationals would be picking first overall for the first time since their back to back picks in 2009 and 2010, which netted the team future franchise cornerstones Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. The CBA created a draft lottery that no longer guaranteed the Nationals the first overall pick, but all told, they should be very happy to come away with the second overall pick.

Mike Rizzo and the Nationals have drafted incredibly poorly over the past decade or so, not only whiffing on almost every single first round pick but also failing to find value later in the draft, which in reality matters even more than that first pick. The team has not drafted and developed an impact player since Anthony Rendon in 2011 – not in the first round, not in the second round, and not in the twentieth round. That is the result of a player development system that has fallen far, far behind most of the rest of the league, relying on traditional development methods rather than embracing new technology and trends in the game. Fortunately, however, the tide appears to be turning. While I wasn't thrilled with the 2021 and 2022 drafts as a whole, I was thrilled with the Brady House and Elijah Green picks as first rounders. And while it remains to be seen how much use the organization gets out of the slew of new hires in the analytics and player development realms, the hiring spree represents a very positive sign in its own right.

That hiring spree might make it hard to peg just what kind of players the Nationals are looking to target in this draft, but in terms of that first pick, things get a little easier to prognosticate. There are only so many names in play at the very top no matter a team's drafting style, and they'll probably have their eye on the top half dozen or so prospects once the day rolls around. 

For now, though, we have a whole season to play and the names will not be the same in July, so we can have a little bit of fun with this list. Common knowledge would recognize that the Nationals are far deeper in young outfielders than they are in any other demographic, which would seemingly rule out names like Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Max Clark, and Walker Jenkins at the top, but there is a very important extra bit of context to bring home; you don't draft for need. If the best player available is an outfielder, it doesn't matter that the Nationals already have Elijah Green, James Wood, and Cristhian Vaquero, among others, in the system – you draft the outfielder anyways. That also means there is no need to jump at a pitcher with this pick despite the absolute dearth of arm talent in the system, unless they determine that a pitcher is the best remaining player. Again, it doesn't matter that the Nationals have a bunch of outfielders and no pitching. If they see an outfielder as the best player available, take him and not the pitcher. With that, here are ten possibilities for the second overall pick, ranging from right-now favorites to a few wild cards that may not be in play just yet at the top of the draft but could get there with a strong spring. Remember, 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was not in the first round conversation at all at this time a year ago.

Number in parentheses after school name denotes current rank on my draft board.

1. RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (#3)
At this point, all signs point to Chase Dollander as the favorite for the second overall pick. I just hammered home the point that you do not draft for need, but the truth is the Nationals really, really need pitching and Dollander may very well be the best player available on draft day. In fact, many scouts have called him the best college pitcher they've seen in years, right up there alongside names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and David Price. The Mike Rizzo we know and love would be beyond thrilled to get the Augusta, Georgia-area native into the system, so he's as good a name as any for Nationals fans to follow this spring. It's as complete a profile as you're going to find at the college level, setting up from a very athletic, projectable 6'3" frame. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has been creeping closer and closer to triple digits, adding explosive riding life from a release point that gets great extension. In a vacuum, it's one of the best fastballs in college baseball, but there is much more to the profile. Dollander also rips off a nasty slider with short, powerful sweeping action that is distinctly different from his downer curveball, while his changeup gives him a fourth average or better pitch. All of this comes from a clean, athletic delivery that helps him effectively locate his entire arsenal to both sides of the plate, ensuring every pitch is competitive and giving plenty of confidence his stuff will continue to play up in pro ball. He enters the spring as the near-consensus best pitcher in the country, and if he can stay healthy while repeating his exceptional 2022 (2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 108/13 K/BB) in the always tough SEC, it's hard to imagine Mike Rizzo passing up the chance at a future ace. Once drafted, he could move very quickly and give a much needed boost to a young Nationals pitching core currently led by Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Cole Henry, and a bit further down, Jarlin Susana.

2. OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State (#1)

Chase Dollander may be the frontrunner for the Nationals at pick number two, but Dylan Crews is probably the better prospect at this point and sits comfortably in the top spot on my draft board. If the Pirates don't take him first overall, I would hope Rizzo and co. would pull the trigger here unless his bonus demands are outrageous. He's the kind of bat that can transform a lineup, and throwing him into that outfield mix with Green, Wood, Vaquero, Robert Hassell, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Brenner Cox might give Washington the best group of young outfielders in baseball. Crews was considered a first round talent early in the 2020 draft cycle but an up and down summer leading up to his senior year of high school dropped him closer to second round consideration. He wound up at Louisiana State and has done nothing but hit since day one, slashing .356/.458/.677 with 40 home runs over 125 games while playing a very tough SEC schedule. The power potential here is simply different. He consistently produces some of the highest exit velocities in college baseball, punishing baseballs to all fields that never seem to come down. He can take you deep to in any direction on any day of the week, profiling for 30+ home runs annually at the big league level. Crews isn't just a slugger, though – he's a very patient hitter at the plate that takes professional at bats and consistently works counts into his favor. When he does get a pitch he can do damage on, he rarely misses it, and his career 16.8% strikeout rate is very impressive as an underclassman power hitter in the SEC. He may be a little bit power over hit at this point, but it's not by much. Additionally, he started all 62 games for LSU in center field last season, bringing above average speed and a plus arm that makes him a net positive out there as well. Teams love up the middle talent early in the draft, and at least for now, Crews fits that profile. However, with numerous prospects that could fit in center field long term, he would probably profile as a right fielder in the Nationals' system and could become at least an above average defender there. He would likely move quickly and could potentially beat every outfield name I mentioned earlier to the majors.

3. SS Jacob Gonzalez, Mississippi (#4)
Dylan Crews and Chase Dollander are the top two prospects in the draft for now, but Jacob Gonzalez is the top infielder in the country and could easily hit his way into this spot just by continuing the pace he's set over his first two seasons at Ole Miss (30 HR, .315/.424/.560). The Nationals are not developing talent well at all right now, and by drafting Gonzalez, they would get one of the most big league-ready players in the class that doesn't need much development. He has impeccable feel for the strike zone, walking four more times than he struck out as a true freshman before bumping that number to eighteen as a sophomore. He is completely comfortable with premium SEC pitching and should seamlessly transition to pro pitching, perhaps enough to start off with AA Harrisburg in 2024. Gonzalez also packs plenty of strength into his 6'2" frame and channels it very well in his left handed swing, showing easy plus raw power to the pull side. He's mostly a pull hitter to this point, but his pitch recognition skills enable him to be successful with that approach even when being pitched on the outer half. It might take some tweaking in pro ball as pitchers are able to better execute to the outside corners and change speeds more effectively, but I really don't imagine he'll have any trouble at all adjusting. Unlike Crews, Gonzalez would give the Nationals an infield bat to join a pretty thin group at that position group in the system. A shortstop for now, he probably fits better at third base going forward due to below average foot speed, but he's plenty athletic enough to stick there. Gonzalez' batting average and on-base percentage dropped from .355/.443 as a freshman to .273/.405 as a sophomore as pitchers stopped pitching to him, but if he adjusts back like he is capable of, he would make a lot of sense at #2.

4. OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [IN] (#2)
Could the Nationals make it three years in a row taking a prep bat? Prep bats are my favorite demographic, and the team made me very happy drafting Brady House and Elijah Green the past two seasons. If they go that route again in 2023, Max Clark is in my opinion the clear top prep player on the market with a tremendous combination of physical projection, present feel for the game, and work ethic. More so than any high school hitter in the country, I feel confident Clark is going to grow into his game naturally and become a true five tool player down the line. For now, he's hit over power with a line drive, gap to gap approach that has him hitting for high averages against elite prep pitching. He recognizes spin and can get the barrel to the ball all over the zone, utilizing a simple operation in the box rather than selling out for power and trying to do too much. That said, the power will come. He has a very well proportioned 6'1" frame with plenty of room to add strength, and he has been hitting the weight room hard to help build that strength. As he fills out physically, the power will come naturally without him having to change his approach at the plate, which should enable him to continue to hit for high averages while still putting up high home run totals. Beyond his bat, Clark is an elite defender in center field with plus-plus arm strength and plus-plus speed, making for the highest upside in the class. In some ways, he'd be a perfect complement to Green, who also shows that double plus speed and arm strength, with the right handed hitting Green a power-over-hit bat that is looking to even things out and the left handed hitting Clark a hit-over-power bat looking to tack on strength. If the draft were today, I would be thrilled with any of Crews, Dollander, or Clark in this spot no matter what the bonus demands were.

5. RHP/DH Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (#12)

As I've mentioned, the Nationals' system is almost completely barren of pitching talent and they could really use an impact arm to give the system a boost. At this point, I much prefer Chase Dollander (and Hurston Waldrep for that matter), but Paul Skenes has generated buzz near the top of the draft and does feel like a guy Mike Rizzo could target if he takes well to the SEC.  He dominated the very hitter-friendly Mountain West Conference while at Air Force to the tune of a 2.73 ERA and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings last year, and this year he joins LSU in hopes of proving his chops against the best hitters in the country. The stuff is trending up and up and up, and he looked even better this fall when he ran his fastball up to 99 and flashed plus with both his slider and his changeup. Big and durable at 6'6" and 235 pounds, he pounds the strike zone and creates difficult angle with his size. In the spring, he'll need to show that his improving stuff can miss bats in the SEC after running a more-good-than-great 27.0% strikeout rate at Air Force last year, when his fastball was a few ticks slower and his slider played closer to average. That version of Paul Skenes would probably fit closer to the back of the first round, but showing that mid 90's velocity and plus offspeed stuff over a full spring season would make him a top ten prospect. Of course, he comes with that service academy work ethic that only adds to the profile.

6. RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest (#13)
Rhett Lowder probably fits closer to the middle of the first round at this point and my ranking reflects that, but he's the kind of pitcher that could play his way to an under slot deal with the Nationals if he builds his stock a little this spring. Again, there isn't much pitching talent in the system right now, and Lowder's advanced all around game would be a welcome site if he takes another step forward this spring. He's up to 97 with his fastball and and shows above average with his slider and changeup, giving him a nearly big league ready arsenal as it is. Lowder also commands everything very well for his age and could report straight to AA Harrisburg to start 2024, with advanced feel for pitching that is hard to find at his age, especially among pitchers with his kind of stuff. At this point, he lacks a true swing and miss offering and profiles more as a safe bet #3 starter than a true top of the rotation stalwart, so there is work to be done. If he wants to go second overall, he'll need to miss more bats this year and improve on last year's 25.1% strikeout rate either by adding some life to his fastball or some snap to his slider. I certainly believe that is possible, and if he can do that, he's the kind of pitcher Mike Rizzo would love to add into the system on a below slot deal.

7. RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida (#7)
Hurston Waldrep is a very different pitcher, but he does find himself in a similar position to Paul Skenes transferring into the SEC. He comes from Southern Miss, where he struck out 140 batters in 90 innings for a sky high 37.3% strikeout rate. There are some very strong lineups in Conference USA, but the jump to the SEC will certainly be a test for Waldrep and therefore an opportunity for him to boost his stock even further. With an uptempo delivery and a skinny build at 6'2", he doesn't look on the surface like the low risk, steady starting pitcher that you'd think Rizzo would target at the top of the draft (Dollander, Skenes, and Lowder fit that description better), but he is a little reminiscent of other top ten picks like Carson Fulmer and Jack Leiter. Everything with Waldrep is explosive. The fastball is easily in the mid 90's and approaches triple digits with big time riding action, while the rest of his arsenal is equally impressive. He shows a hard slider, a power curve, and a rapidly improving splitter that all flash at least above average if not plus, so it's hard not to see him continuing to miss SEC bats in bunches like he did in the C-USA. With average command, the SEC will be a test as more advanced hitters will make it a little tougher for him to control the strike zone. He walked 8.8% of his opponents last year, which isn't a huge number but is still the highest on this list above Dollander (4.2%), Lowder (6.2%), and Skenes (8.5%). If he can continue to elicit chases and avoid walks with Florida while maintaining his stuff and health, Rizzo may be interested in his services on a below-slot deal, especially if Dollander, Lowder, and Skenes don't seize their opportunity.

8. 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian (#9)

The last time the Nationals drafted, developed, and reaped the benefits from an impact player was 2011, when they took Anthony Rendon with the sixth overall pick out of Rice. Twelve years later, they may have an opportunity to make a similar pick from the Lone Star State in TCU's Brayden Taylor, though Taylor has the added benefit of batting left handed. While there's no matching the otherworldly numbers Rendon put up for the Owls from 2009-2011 (52 HR, .373/.505/.680 in 187 games), Taylor has been a one man wrecking crew in his own right for two years now (25 HR, .319/.450/.574 in 117 games) and still won't turn 21 until May. He fits what the Nationals like as an advanced, all-around bat that can do a little bit of everything. Taylor takes extremely professional at bats, as evidenced by drawing more walks than strikeouts in both his underclass seasons. He controls the strike zone, rarely chasing but consistently doing damage on the pitches he does choose to attack, helping him produce elite on-base percentages of .445 and .454 the last two seasons. He's definitely hit over power at this point, but he does show average power overall and can take you deep to the pull side when he turns on one. At this point, I don't think he's in play at the second overall pick, but he's not far off and his to do list is pretty simple. Fairly slender at 6'1", tacking on some strength and tapping more all-fields power in 2023 would certainly move him closer to the conversation, and given his youth and athleticism I could definitely see that happening. Taylor has also played almost exclusively third base during his time at TCU, but with Tommy Sacco gone to the Astros, he could get some looks at shortstop this year. He has shown well at the hot corner to this point and if he also takes well to shortstop, that would be another feather in his cap. Show both the added power and the aptitude at shortstop, and you have a strong candidate to go second overall to the Nationals.

9. 3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell HS [FL] (#16)
Usually, teams prefer up the middle talent at the top of the draft. Aidan Miller, the younger brother of Reds prospect Jackson Miller, may not quite fit that description, but if he can prove what he needs to prove in 2023, he could work his way as high as the Nationals' pick at #2. It's some of the best power in the prep class, coming naturally from a big league body at 6'2" that enables him to tap it consistently without selling out. Miller also takes big league at bats, with a disciplined approach that helps him stay in the zone and attack pitches he can do damage on, though like many power hitters, he can be prone to chasing fastballs up. There are some moving parts in the swing which hamper his pure hit tool, representing an opportunity where he can improve and potentially push his draft position up, which presently stands closer to the middle of the first round. Given that he'll already be 19 well before the draft, the Nationals will want to see that polished up a bit before rolling the dice at pick #2. More pressing, though, especially at the top of the draft, is his future position. A plus arm gives him a chance to stick at third base, but he's not a quick twitch guy and can't afford to slow down much more. If he can come out and continue to show good range at the hot corner this spring and help Rizzo and co. feel comfortable that he can avoid a move to first base, it would make them much more likely to pull the trigger this early in the draft, especially if his hit tool ticks up a little in addition. He wouldn't be the first player from J.W. Mitchell High School in the Tampa suburbs to star for the Nationals, as the school was also one of the many stops Tyler Clippard made as he bounced around from high school to high school as an amateur.

10. SS Roch Cholowsky, Hamilton HS [AZ] (#20)
We'll round it out with a wild card pick. In ranking Cholowsky 20th on my board, I'm actually significantly higher on him than Baseball America (#28), Prospects Live (#33), and MLB Pipeline (#35), and he still has a ways to go to get to #2. Still, eventual 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was ranked outside the top 50 on many lists at this point a year ago, and I think Cholowsky has a chance to be that guy in 2023. The Phoenix-area product is a fantastic athlete that actually has a chance to play quarterback at UCLA in addition to baseball, and it's that physical upside that makes me think he could make the jump. He moves effortlessly on the diamond, showing above average range and arm strength that makes the shortstop position look easy, so he already has that up the middle defensive projection that teams prefer at the top of the draft. Of course, you're not drafting anything less than a future top/middle of the order bat at pick #2, and Cholowsky does have some work to do to get there. The good news is the foundation is there, so if he comes out in 2023 a little stronger and a little more polished, he could fly up boards. He already shows very natural bat to ball skills and for the most part combines that with good swing decisions, making for a potential above average hit tool in the future. His swing is also very fluid and with the physical upside I mentioned, any strength gains could get him to at least average power if not better, especially as he learns to make better use of his legs. So there are two things that need to happen for Cholowsky to make the leap: more polish, and more physicality. I think the physicality is more or less a given and could easily show up this spring, while the polish may come a little later given his two-sport nature but is also pretty strong as it is. I really like this kid and I would be thrilled to see him swing his way up to #2.

Other Top Ranked Candidates

OF Wyatt Lanford, Florida (#5)

OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] (#8)
SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonnor HS [PA] (#10)

OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt (#11)

SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon (#14)

Other Dark Horse Candidates

OF Travis Honeyman, Boston College (#6)

OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech (#18)
SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest HS [FL] (#21)
LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy [MA] (#22)
LHP Grayson Hitt, Alabama (#37)