Sunday, July 25, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Oakland Athletics

Full list of draftees

For the second straight year, the A's grabbed a prep hitter out of California in the back of the first round, but from there it was virtually all college with Puerto Rican prep pitcher Eduardo Rivera (eleventh round) representing the only other high schooler in the haul. There was no one big overslot signing here, as Oakland instead opted to spread its money around pretty evenly and grab a couple of moderately overslot college players in the middle of day two. It was a little more hitter-heavy on days one and two and a little more pitcher-heavy on day three, but ultimately the A's picked up a diverse variety of players and didn't really stick to one demographic, aside from mainly college guys. They also took a lot of guys that I'm a little extra interested to see how they turn out, including first rounder Max Muncy, third rounder Mason Miller, fourth rounder Denzel Clarke, and ninth rounder Shane McGuire.
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1-25: SS Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS [CA]. My rank: #37.
We've probably all heard multiple times by now that this isn't the Dodgers' Max Muncy and he shares no relation, even though he did grow up in the Los Angeles suburbs. I've been interested in the younger Max Muncy throughout the whole draft cycle, and I wasn't surprised to see him rising towards the end of the spring. He has plenty of room to grow into his rangy 6'1" frame, and while he might not be the most athletic kid in the class, he uses his body very well and gets the most out of it, which will bode well for him as he grows and adds strength. Muncy shows great feel for the barrel from the right side, with plenty of plate coverage and the ability to do damage to all parts of the park, which again is something that he'll only get better at as he gets stronger. Defensively, there's a split camp as to whether he's athletic enough to handle shortstop, but I see enough arm strength to make it work as an above average third baseman and the A's likely think he'll stick at shortstop outright. Overall, Muncy may not have one standout tool that most first rounders show, but I like the overall package a lot and I think he'll grow into his game nicely. It took $2.85 million to sign him away from an Arkansas commitment, which was about $110,000 above slot value.

2-60: 3B Zack Gelof, Virginia. My rank: #101.
The industry was a bit split on Zack Gelof, who has been a bit more inconsistent than the typical Virginia draft prospect. He was off to a hot start in 2020, slashing .349/.469/.746 when the season shut down, but got off to a slow start in 2021 before righting the ship later on and finishing at .312/.393/.485 with nine home runs and a 40/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. Those who have watched Gelof regularly see all of the offensive tools to succeed, but not necessarily at the same time. There's above average raw power in his 6'3" frame, which he has shown the ability to tap despite playing at a pitcher-friendly home park. The Delaware native also has shown a disciplined approach that has enabled high on-base percentages in Charlottesville and makes him an all-around asset at the plate. To this point, though, he hasn't quite shown both at the same time. He can hit for power, but when he does, it often comes with some moderate swing and miss. On the other hand, when he's focused on making contact and putting the ball in play, sometimes he can hit for less impact. The A's likely believe that's partly due to that power-suppressing home park, and once he gets into more neutral environments in pro ball, he'll put it all together. The Coliseum may be similar to Davenport Field in Charlottesville, but at least he won't experience the same drop-off as other hitters. Gelof signed for slot value at $1.16 million.

3-97: RHP Mason Miller, Gardner-Webb. My rank: #128.
Mason Miller is a really interesting one. He was lightly recruited out of his Pittsburgh-area high school and began his college career at Division III Waynesburg University, where he was a non-factor over his first two seasons before being diagnosed with Type I diabetes and taking a step forward as a junior in 2019. He transferred to Gardner-Webb after graduating and has continued to build his stock, finishing with a 3.30 ERA and a 121/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings. Miller is a power arm that comfortably sits in the mid 90's and touched 99 at the combine, coming in with a low release point and high spin that give his fastball a very flat plane up in the zone. The 6'5" righty adds an above average slider as well that is his main secondary, while his changeup is his clear third pitch. Miller fills up the strike zone and has the frame and stuff to project as a starter at the next level. Working against him is age, as he'll turn 23 in August, but the A's are buying into the incredibly steep, upward trajectory he's on and think he'll continue to improve in their system. If the changeup doesn't come along or the command doesn't make the transition, his fastball/slider combination could be deadly out of the bullpen. Miller signed at slot value for $599,100.

4-127: OF Denzel Clarke, Cal State Northridge. My rank: #115.
In the fourth round, the A's came back to the west coast and brought on one of the best athletes in the class. The son of an olympic heptathlete and a cousin of Josh and Bo Naylor, Denzel Clarke has combined that athleticism with performance by slashing .341/.464/.615 with eleven home runs, twenty stolen bases, and a 65/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 53 games over the last two seasons. There's plus raw power in his 6'5" frame, and he has been tapping it more and more consistently in games. He's also a plus runner that can make an impact on both sides of the ball, giving him the chance to stick in center field in the long run. The hit tool is a bit less proven, as Clarke struck out at a 23% clip against decent Big West pitching this year, and some evaluators noted that most of his damage came against lower quality arms and he struggled against better stuff. Still, others will note that the Toronto-area native is absolutely trending in the right direction with his approach, and getting him into a pro development system to continue that trend could bring big results. The A's are betting on Clarke's considerable ceiling this year and think that he could be the type to burst into pro ball and take a lot of people by surprise. He signed for $700,000, which was about $252,600 above slot value and the equivalent to mid-third round money.

5-158: C CJ Rodriguez, Vanderbilt. Unranked.
CJ Rodriguez's ascent to stardom came relatively quickly. He played in twelve games in the shortened 2020 season, but became Vanderbilt's starting catcher in 2021 and produced, slashing .249/.393/.378 with five home runs and an excellent 19/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. Rodriguez is not a flashy player – rather, he uses his high baseball IQ and good knowledge of his own game to contribute quietly. While the 5'10" backstop doesn't have a ton of power, he finds the barrel consistently with a simple right handed stroke and manages the strike zone superbly, which will make the transition to pro pitching much easier for him. Behind the plate, he's a quiet leader with plenty of big game experience, and has deftly handled famous arms like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Christian Little, and Patrick Reilly. Again, that experience with first round stuff will come in handy in pro ball. The Los Angeles-area native also has a strong arm that plays up due to his quick release and strong instincts. To me, it's a pretty clear backup catcher profile, but if he can tack on a little bit of power he could manage as a glove-first regular. He signed for $400,000, which was about $69,900 above slot value.

6-188: RHP Grant Holman, California. My rank: #167.
Grant Holman entered campus in Berkeley as a two-way player, and he actually slashed .264/.348/.414 with five home runs over his first two seasons. However, he dropped hitting during the pandemic and came back to campus in the fall of 2020 as a pitcher-only, and his stuff took a boost. The fastball touched 97 and sat in the mid 90's in fall practice, and his secondaries looked a bit sharper as well. After sitting out the first month of the regular season with biceps problems, he came out and had a solid but unspectacular spring with a 3.83 ERA and a 46/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 innings. The stuff looked good, but he didn't quite build the fall like some scouts had hoped. The huge, 6'6" righty gets great lower half extension down the mound, then releases from high off the ground to put steep downhill plane on his pitches. He gets nice life on his fastball, though it should be noted that today, low release heights with flat approach angles are more in style. Behind that big fastball is a full array of secondaries, all of which are a work in progress. His slider is probably his best, flashing above average at times, though it and his curveball can get loopy at times. The changeup is fringe-average for now, while his command can flash average but is inconsistent. He's more of a traditional starting pitching prospect in that his pitch and delivery data don't uncover any high spin rates or the like, but the A's are buying into his frame, arm strength, age (he just turned 21 at the end of May), and the fact that he just gave up hitting last year. The San Diego-area product signed for $375,000, which was $119,700 above slot value.

9-278: C Shane McGuire, San Diego. Unranked.
This is a really interesting one for me. Shane McGuire improved every year at San Diego, jumping from .287/.417/.362 as a freshman in 2018 to .325/.444/.401 as a sophomore and .469/.561/.688 in his pandemic-shortened junior season. That didn't quite carry over to 2021, where he hit a quieter but still respectable .278/.389/.483 with a career high six home runs and a 14/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games. The younger brother of Blue Jays catcher Reese McGuire, Shane stands out first and foremost for his exceptional bat to ball skills, which have led to just a 10.9% strikeout rate over four years at San Diego and a minuscule 6.5% rate in 2021. He shows some easy pop in his 6' frame and slight uppercut swing, but he tends to get on top of balls and hits a lot of low line drives, which led to hitting just one home run in each of his first three seasons. The Seattle-area native is a bit choppy behind the plate, but shows off a strong arm that will keep him back there for now and possibly for good once robot umpires show up. Though he's a bit older as a fourth year player who turned 22 in April, I think there's more upside here than you might expect, as some swing tweaks could help him tap more power in pro ball and his plate discipline will enable him to make the most of it. He signed for $100,000, which was $50,800 below slot value.

14-428: OF Jonny Butler, North Carolina State. Unranked.
Jonny Butler spent his freshman season at Heartland JC in Illinois, then transferred to NC State and improved every year. In 2021, Butler was one of the best hitters in the ACC, slashing .376/.452/.663 with 14 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 45/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games against a tough schedule, anchoring a Wolfpack lineup that made a deep Omaha run only cut short by a COVID outbreak. Butler brings a very interesting bat with a left handed swing that's long through the zone but still manages to put plenty of loft on the baseball, enabling him to handle and do damage against premium arms. In fact, he was one of just five players to homer off of Golden Spikes winner Kevin Kopps this year. There's at least average power in the tank as he manipulates the barrel well and hits the ball hard. He's an average runner who probably profiles as a left fielder in the long run, so the bat will have to carry him, and he's a fourth year guy who turned 22 in February. Still, I really like this pick in the fourteenth round, where he signed for $125,000.

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