For the second year in a row, the Astros didn't pick in the first two rounds due to their sign stealing scandal. However, they still pulled together a solid class headlined by one of the best high school hitters in the country, Tyler Whitaker. After following up with another high school hitter in Alex Ulloa, they went on a run of college players to afford them and I think they did a good job with that. Their first big money saver, Chayce McDermott, has a chance to be the best pitcher in this Astros draft class. They also brought in two Houston natives in George Ranch High School alum Spencer Arrighetti as well as Klein Forest alum Bryant Salgado. Tyler Whitaker has to be my favorite pick of course, as that's fringe-first round value in the third round, but my next favorite pick was McDermott.
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3-87: SS Tyler Whitaker, Bishop Gorman HS [NV]. My rank: #44.
For the second year in a row, the Astros reached up the board and grabbed a falling high schooler to presumably pay him an above-slot bonus, getting top-50 value. Tyler Whitaker was being rumored as high as the late first round, but ultimately tumbled when some of his suitors went in other directions while others did not want to meet his high asking price. The Astros will, however, and because of that they're getting a really good baseball player. The Las Vegas native streamlined his swing in the spring to great results, tapping his notable raw power much more consistently and handling relatively advanced pitching in and around southern Nevada. We're now looking at at least an average hit tool with above average power, all coming from an ideal 6'4" frame that he really gets the most out of. A solid athlete, he has a chance to play center field at the next level and his strong arm will make him an asset in right field if he ultimately ends up there, though interestingly the Astors announced him as a shortstop. I liked the Alex Santos pick a lot last year, and I like this one even better. Slot value here is $689,300, but it will take considerably more to pull him away from an Arizona commitment. If he does head to school (which he won't if he was drafted this high), he'll be eligible again in 2023 because he turns 19 in August.
4-117: SS Alex Ulloa, Calvary Christian HS [FL]. My rank: #193.
For the second pick in a row, the Astros grabbed a high school shortstop, though Alex Ulloa actually played shortstop for his high school team. That high school team that included first rounder Andrew Painter, fifth rounder Irv Carter, and another very draftable catcher in Rene Lastres who priced himself out. Ulloa does a lot of things well, showing a profile with very few holes in it. Just 5'11", he packs more strength than you'd expect into his smaller frame, with a knack for finding the barrel and the natural bat speed and leverage to produce average power. The south Florida native also shows the ability to be an average shortstop, elevating the way his bat profiles. While he lacks the high ceiling of a guy like Tyler Whitaker, Ulloa's broad skillset and sneaky power make him a safer pick with some upside as well, and one who may not be terribly expensive here in the fourth round despite a commitment to Oklahoma State. Slot value is $492,700.
4C-132: RHP Chayce McDermott, Ball State. My rank: #131.
With their compensation for losing George Springer, the Astros broke from the prep hitter demographic and drafted their first money-saving college arm in Chayce McDermott, who will likely sign below slot due to the fact that he tuns 23 in August. Despite the fact that he helps Houston afford Whitaker and Ulloa, McDermott is a valuable piece in his own right, one that has a chance to be an impact arm at the big league level. The Anderson, Indiana product broke out in 2021 with a 3.05 ERA and a 125/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings against Ball State's MAC-based schedule, showing that while he likely projects as a reliever, there is starter upside. He has a ton of arm strength helped immensely by great utilization of his 6'3" frame, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch as high as 98. McDermott also employs a sharp curveball that flashes plus at its best, and he can work it into a slider as well. He gets low into his delivery and rides off his back leg extremely well, putting exceptional ride onto his fastball and enabling it to play very well off his breaking balls. For now, he projects as a reliever due to his fringy changeup and command, as well as his age and relatively high effort delivery, but he does have a chance to start if he can improve either his changeup or command. McDermott is a great athlete and his brother, Sean McDermott, signed with the NBA's Memphis Grizzlies in 2020 as an undrafted free agent out of Butler. Slot value is $426,600, and as I mentioned he will likely sign for less than that.
6-178: RHP Spencer Arrighetti, Louisiana-Lafayette. Unranked.
I always like to highlight at least one local player when doing these, and we got one with ULL's Spencer Arrighetti, a right hander who grew up in Katy and attended Cinco Ranch High School in Houston's western suburbs. Arrighetti started off at TCU but transferred to Navarro JC in Corsicana after an unremarkable freshman season, then hopped over the state line to Lafayette to play for the Ragin' Cajuns. There, the 6'2" righty blossomed into an ace, putting up a 3.12 ERA and a 91/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.2 innings. He has a very loose, athletic delivery that enables him to fill up the strike zone, attacking hitters with a fastball right around 90 and an average curve and changeup. The Astros like the way his body works and even if he doesn't have the traditional projectable frame, they should be able to help his stuff tick up. It's a combination of a nice sleeper pick as well as a hometown pick. Slot value is $277,100 and I don't expect him to exceed that.
7-208: OF Joey Loperfido, Duke. Unranked.
ACC fans will be very familiar with this pick, as Joey Loperfido appeared in 170 games over four years at Duke and saved his best season for last, slashing .374/.473/.612 with eight home runs, twelve stolen bases, and a 50/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games this year. At a lanky 6'4", he's fun to project on, with the chance to do a lot of little things to help the Astros win. He's an above average runner with a consistent track record of hitting against good arms, and due to his size, his fringe-average power has a chance to become true average in pro ball with added strength. The Philadelphia-area native can play all over the field, and while he's not necessarily a plus defender anywhere, he can get the job done in center field or take ground balls at pretty much any infield position except shortstop. The upside here is a super-utility type with a chance to play everyday if he can find a consistent power stroke. Slot value is $216,600, but because Loperfido is already 22, he'll likely sign for less.
12-358: RHP Rhett Kouba, Dallas Baptist. Unranked.
This is a fun one. Kouba didn't receive much national attention, but he was a favorite of local scouts and brings a nice package from a slightly undersized 6' frame. The righty from just outside Oklahoma City sits in the low 90's with his running fastball, getting up to 96 at times, and despite his size he shows the durability to hold that velocity. He also adds a slider that flashes above average, which is a secondary pitch for him behind that fastball. He mainly goes off those two pitches and attacks the strike zone, leading to low walk totals. Some might see his size and lack of a consistent changeup and point him to the bullpen, but Kouba is on an upward trajectory and has the compact strength to work his way up as a back-end starter. His 2021 line for Dallas Baptist came out to a 2.77 ERA and an 87/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.2 innings.
13-388: 2B Kobe Kato, Arizona. Unranked.
In an Arizona lineup full of mashers like Jacob Berry, Daniel Susac, and Ryan Holgate, Kobe Kato was the quiet, consistent on-base guy you might not have heard about as much. The Hawaii native was on base at least once in 58 of the Wildcats' 63 games this year, slashing .350/.460/.469 with more walks (43) than strikeouts (34). At a very skinny 6'1", Kato does not hit for much power at all, but he makes up for his lack of brute strength with a quick bat and exceptional barrel-to-ball skills that enable him to spray the ball to the gaps consistently. He should have no problem handling pro pitching and could move relatively quickly, though his ceiling is somewhat limited to due that lack of power.
14-418: RHP Bryant Salgado, Oregon State. Unranked.
Believe it or not, this one is actually another hometown pick. Bryant Salgado grew up in Houston and attended Klein Forest High School up in the cities northwestern suburbs, then began his college career at San Jacinto JC. Salgado then transferred out to Oregon State, where he was a valuable member of the bullpen this year and put up a 1.01 ERA and a 27/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.2 innings. It's definitely a relief profile in pro ball, with the 5'11" righty sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touching 97 while adding a slider that can be a wipeout pitch at times. Due to his size, fringy command, and high effort delivery, I don't see him starting in pro ball, but he could be a power arm coming out of the Houston bullpen in a few years. Another fun hometown guy to root for.
20-598: OF Jackson Linn, Cambridge Rindge & Latin HS [MA]. My rank: #82.
It's highly unlikely that Jackson Linn signs here, unless something crazy happens and the Astros end up with leftover bonus money because Tyler Whitaker doesn't sign or something. I'll be brief. Linn is a Boston kid who hasn't been seen much against top competition, but he produces crazy data from his right handed swing. He hits the ball ridiculously hard, in fact harder than almost anybody in the high school class, and can also hit 98 on the mound. He's going to head down to the bayou regardless, as he's committed to play at Tulane and could be their best hitter since Kody Hoese, if not better.
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