Saturday, July 31, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Chicago White Sox

Full list of draftees

The White Sox have drafted a college player with their first pick every year since 2012, when they took Corpus Christi prep Courtney Hawkins, but they went back to the prep ranks to grab Colson Montgomery this year, who had been widely linked to them for weeks. Chicago would bring in three more preps in the second, fifth, and fifteenth rounds, making this one of their most prep-heavy drafts in recent years. It was also a pitcher heavy draft, because after the two prep infielders at the top, they went with ten straight arms from the third to twelfth rounds. They spent big early, combining to go roughly $1.1 million above slot value over their first five picks, then spent just a combined $90,000 in rounds six through ten to afford those overages. Overall, I like this draft for the White Sox and is probably the first one, given that they got a supreme high school talent that they were clearly in love with and did not have to go above slot value.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-22: SS Colson Montgomery, Southridge HS [IN]. My rank: #21.
Colson Montgomery was both an established name and a late riser in this year's draft. Long known as one of the better hitters in the class, he went on a tear late in the spring and showed extremely well at the MLB Draft Combine in June, and it became pretty publicly known around that time that he was the White Sox' "guy." There were a few teams interested in the top twenty, but he ended up making it to Chicago at #22 and they were excited to land their guy. Montgomery is one of the most projectable hitters in the class, showing big raw power from a 6'4" frame that he gets to consistently in games. It comes from a pretty ideal left handed swing in which he gets effectively uphill but stays long through the hitting zone, and he shows a strong eye at the plate when it comes to identifying hittable pitches. The southern Indiana native can get into a little bit of trouble when he gets overly power conscious and tries to hit home runs, so an early and hopefully easy fix will be helping him trust his natural strength at the plate. A star basketball player as well, he impressed with his athleticism at the combine and might be able to stick at shortstop, though he probably outgrows the position and shifts over to third base. Perhaps the biggest ding on Montgomery's profile is his age, as he turned 19 in February and needs to be evaluated like a college freshman. Still, there aren't many college freshmen out there who can hit like he can, and there remains a ton of upside here in the first round. I've seen Corey Seager comps. It took full slot value, roughly $3.03 million, to sign him out of an Indiana commitment. A native of the small town of Huntingburg between Evansville and Louisville, I guess you could consider this a hometown pick even if he's a bit closer to Cincinnati (150 miles) and St. Louis (175 miles) than Chicago (250 miles).

2-57: 3B Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS [AZ]. My rank: #51.
There were rumors that Wes Kath could sneak into the back of the first round, so getting him here in the second round for a reasonable over slot bonus could be big value for the White Sox. He brings one of the better combinations of hit and power tools outside the first round, and despite his sturdy 6'3" frame he actually stood out more for that hitting ability early on. Kath is a professional hitter who manages the strike zone extremely well, easily handling advanced competition when he sees it. The Phoenix native also channels his strength into a leveraged left handed swing, producing high exit velocities and giving him the chance to hit 20-25 home runs or more annually at his ceiling. He's not nearly the athlete that Montgomery is, but he moves well and his cannon arm should help him stick at third base even in the shifting era. Like Montgomery, he's old for the class and turns 19 right around when this is getting published, but he's still five months younger than the first rounder. I could see him adjusting to pro baseball a little quicker than Montgomery but he probably doesn't have quite the ceiling. Still, it's a high probability impact bat as far as high school hitters go. Committed to Arizona State, he instead signed for $1.8 million, which was roughly $560,000 above slot value.

3-94: RHP Sean Burke, Maryland. My rank: #96.
Sean Burke represents an interesting addition for the White Sox, and they certainly paid for it with another over slot bonus. He missed his freshman season with Tommy John surgery, but was sharp over the shortened 2020 season (1.99 ERA, 35/11 K/BB) and was strong again over a full season in 2021, posting a 3.27 ERA and a 107/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings. First and foremost, it's the stuff that stands out for Burke, as he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and helps it play up with high spin rates and riding life. His curveball plays extremely well off his fastball with sharp downer action, and he added a new slider in 2021 that could be an above average pitch as well. The changeup is a fourth pitch and will be a point of development. The 6'5" righty is a springy athlete that has plenty enough arm strength to remain a starter, though he doesn't always repeat his delivery well and has below average command. Development of that command as well as his changeup will be his keys to sticking in the rotation, and the stuff and frame are so good that it's really easy to dream on his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter. The central Massachusetts native signed for $900,000, which was $281,800 above slot value.

4-124: LHP Brooks Gosswein, Bradley. Unranked.
The White Sox went with a true local pick in the fourth round, grabbing Bradley senior Brooks Gosswein. Gosswein attended Barrington High School in the northwestern Chicago suburbs, then headed downstate to Bradley University for school. He was never a star there, finishing with a 4.57 career ERA over 167.1 innings, and in 2021 he had a 5.13 ERA and a 53/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.2 innings. The 6'2" lefty shows a low 90's fastball that has been steadily adding velocity, getting up to 95-96 at times in 2021 and coming in with downhill plane and sink. He throws both a slider and a curveball which could be above average pitches, though he needs to work on the consistency, and he shows feel for an average changeup as well. He's generally around the zone with average command, and he has the arm strength and athleticism to hold his stuff deep into starts. Set to turn 23 after the season, he's not young, but the White Sox think there are enough puzzle pieces in place to put together a back-end starter. Gosswein signed for $200,000, which was $260,000 below slot value.

5-155: RHP Tanner McDougal, Silverado HS [NV]. My rank: #151.
This is a name that was trending up as the draft neared, just like Colson Montgomery but not quite as famous. He's a long, lean righty coming in at 6'5" or 6'6" depending on your publication of choice, armed with a low 90's fastball that tops out around 96, an improving curveball that is getting more downer action now, and an above average changeup for a high schooler with some tumble. Everything plays up because he has a loose delivery that puts high spin rates on his pitches in addition to a relatively low release point for his arm slot. There's room to add good weight, which could help him touch the mid 90's more often as well as get more power behind his curveball, which does not look as slurvy as it used to but which could still use to add some power down in the mid 70's. There's a lot of upside in this pick, and it took $850,000 to sign the Las Vegas native away from an Oregon commitment, a cool $510,000 above slot value.

11-335: RHP Christian Edwards, Jacksonville State. Unranked.
Skipping ahead a few rounds, we'll look at eleventh rounder Christian Edwards out of Jacksonville State. He has one of the biggest arms in the Deep South and was a breakout performer this year, posting a 2.48 ERA and a 83/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings in a hitter-friendly conference. Edwards is primarily known for his fastball, which sits in the mid 90's now and has touched as high as 99, also proving difficult to square up with its riding action. His slider is an above average pitch as well, helping him generate strikeouts. His lack of a third pitch and fringe-average command, as well as the fact that he turned 22 in March, likely point to a career in the bullpen, but he has a chance to be nasty in that role with closer upside. As a showcase of what he can do in short stints, the northern Alabama native struck out eight of the fourteen batters he faced in a brief Cape Cod League stint in 2019, allowing just one hit and one walk over four shutout innings. The 6'3" righty signed for $150,000, of which $25,000 counts against the White Sox' bonus pool.

18-545: C Adam Hackenberg, Clemson. Unranked.
Adam Hackenberg has long been a known commodity to scouts in the Virginia/Carolinas region, dating back to his prep days at the Miller School of Albemarle outside Charlottesville (under head coach Billy Wagner, no less). Though he never quite put it all together enough to jump into national conversations, he did show reasonably well against a tough ACC schedule in 2021, slashing .258/.357/.392 with three home runs and a 27/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games. Hackenberg comes from an ultra-athletic family, as both his parents (football and volleyball) and his uncle (football) were Division I athletes, while his older brother Christian Hackenberg was drafted by the Jets in the second round out of Penn State in 2016. In addition to the athletic genes, he's also known as one of the smartest players on the field at any point, consistently picking up all-academic honors. The central Virginia native shows off above average to plus raw power in batting practice, but it hasn't quite shown up in games consistently yet because he doesn't always elevate the ball or find the barrel. When he shortens up, he does a pretty good job of making consistent contact, but it does come at the expense of his power when he does so and it's hard for him to hit for both power and average at the same time. Hackenberg shows a strong arm behind the plate and should stick back there. It's a backup catcher profile with a chance for more if the White Sox can help him put everything together. He signed for $125,000.

19-575: SS Shawn Goosenberg, Northwestern. Unranked.
We'll finish off this review with the White Sox' second to last pick, a semi-hometown pick of Shawn Goosenberg out of Northwestern. Though he attended school in Evanston, Goosenberg is actually from the Los Angeles area, but he'll be staying in Chicago for his pro career. After a respectable .288/.338/.397 freshman season for the Wildcats, the Calabasas product has been one of the toughest outs in the Big Ten over the past two seasons, slashing .374/.433/.707 with twelve home runs and a 29/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games since 2020. There are some moving parts in his right handed swing but he does a very good job of getting the barrel to the baseball and hitting it hard, giving him a chance for above average power in pro ball. For now, he shows an extremely aggressive approach at the plate that keeps him from reaching many deep counts, something that could be exploited in pro ball once he gets there. It looks like a utility infield profile but there is some more upside if he does get his approach sorted out. He signed for $125,000.

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