For the first time since Tyler Jay in 2015, the Twins selected a pitcher with their first pick, and for the first time since Kohl Stewart in 2013, it was a high school pitcher. In fact, five of the Twins' first seven picks were pitchers. Known for drafting power bats, Minnesota did grab Oklahoma State third baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the fourth round, but ultimately it looks like that wasn't the focus this year. After they took high schoolers with their first two picks (the only high schoolers they took in the draft), it looks like the focus turned to college lefties with three in the next four picks, all of whom seem to be incomplete projects who will take some professional development. I think this is an interesting class and I'm curious to see how a lot of these guys develop, and I'll say I like it, but don't love it. My favorite pick was probably the first one, Chase Petty.
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1-26: RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ]. My rank: #24.
The Twins' first arm to begin a draft in half a dozen years, Minnesota will hope for better from Chase Petty than they got from Jay and Stewart, as the latter has thrown just 75.2 major league innings and the former never made it. Petty is the hardest thrower in the prep class, running his fastball up as high as 102 and very comfortably sitting in the low to mid 90's over longer outings. His slider is relatively inconsistent, but at its best, it looks like a true plus, even plus-plus pitch with both power and shape. The Jersey Shore product also shows a changeup that, while behind his fastball and slider, is certainly a playable pitch and is trending towards above average. Petty may be undersized at six foot even, which you would think would add further fear for the hard throwing prep demographic (I wrote in the Padres writeup how Chase Burns made me nervous), but I'm actually not terribly worried about his arm falling off. He's a bit of a freak athlete that gets down the mound extraordinarily well, driving off his back leg and beautifully converting that power into arm speed and velocity. For that reason, I think his arm has a better chance than most to hold up over increased usage, though the risk remains regardless because it's not natural to throw an object 102 miles per hour. At the back of the first round, I'd be very happy taking that risk. Slot value is $2.65 million and my guess is he'll require at least that much to sign away from a Florida commitment.
CBA-36: SS Noah Miller, Ozaukee HS [WI]. My rank: #129.
This was a bit of a surprise pick, but high schoolers can have greater variance in their stocks from team to team. That's especially true with a guy like Noah Miller, who didn't participate in many big events or face a ton of top competition. Given that his brother is Owen Miller, who recently reached the big leagues with the Indians, he was pretty well known around the industry, but some teams that value exposure to advanced competition weren't comfortable with him. However, he was a favorite of area scouts, many of whom were not only comfortable, but excited about the profile. The Twins clearly fall into that second boat, opting to go all in on a talent that was picking up steam as Wisconsin finally warmed up. He's a switch hitter with great feel to hit from both sides of the plate, showing a broad skill set from an athletic 6' frame that will translate very nicely to the Twins' development program. The rural Wisconsin product is also growing into some power and is an above average defender at shortstop, showing the kind of profile that might have gotten more love on the national scale if it had in fact been seen more often at big events. Though I have him well outside my top one hundred, I don't mind the pick at all, given that I haven't seen him as much. Minnesota has $2.05 million to spend here in the competitive balance round, but he will likely sign for less to forego an Alabama commitment.
2-61: LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan. My rank: #79.
I find Steven Hajjar to be a really interesting arm. He didn't pitch in 2019 after tearing his ACL, then looked solid in his shortened sophomore year in 2020 with a 2.70 ERA and a 24/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings. At that point, the 6'5" lefty excited evaluators with his huge frame, youth, projection, and stuff that was ticking up. That stuff was a tick down in the fall, and he never really regained it in the spring, but still showed well with a 3.09 ERA and a 110/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings. Hajjar sits in the low 90's at his best, though he did hover around 90 at times in 2021 and even dipped into the upper 80's. He also shows an inconsistent curveball and slider that can be distinctly above average pitches at their best, but which often blend into each other and get slurvy. His changeup has been more consistent so far and projects as above average in pro ball. Given his spotty command and some difficulty in repeating his delivery, it was a pretty dull profile if you saw him on the wrong days, but there's a lot to like here. The Boston-area native has shown plenty of arm strength in the past, touching 94-95 regularly last summer, and he impressed evaluators by hitting 97 with his final pitch at the MLB Draft Combine this June. He's also young for the class, not turning 21 until August, giving the Twins that much extra time to develop him and help him grow into his stuff. Unlike first rounder Chase Petty, who has very loud "now" stuff, Minnesota hopes that it can help Hajjar grow into his game and become an impact rotation piece once he gets there. He signed for slot value at $1.13 million.
3-98: LHP Cade Povich, Nebraska. Unranked.
For their third round pick, the Twins went back to the Big Ten and grabbed another lefty. Povich started off at South Mountain JC in Phoenix, then came home to Nebraska to pitch for the Cornhuskers. After an up and down 2020 season, he found consistency in 2021 and finished with a 3.11 ERA and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 innings. Standing 6'3", he doesn't quite have Hajjar's projection, with a bit of a skinnier frame and less arm strength. He's more crafty than anything else, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and scraping 93 at best. The Omaha-area native adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which are useful pitches when he mixes and locates them well, which is often. I'd say the curveball is a bit behind the other two, but if he can add a tick of strength and maybe bump that fastball a bit closer to 94-95, he has some upside as a back-end starter. Otherwise, it might be more of a long relief profile. He signed for $500,000, which was $93,100 below slot value.
4-128: 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Oklahoma State. My rank: #145.
It took until the fourth round, but we finally got our patented Twins power bat in Christian Encarnacion-Strand. A California Bay Area native, Encarnacion-Strand started off at Yavapai JC in Arizona and was an absolute monster, slashing .410/.482/.871 with 33 home runs over two years. He moved on to Oklahoma State in 2021, where he just kept hitting and slashed .361/.442/.661 with 15 home runs and a 50/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. The 6' right handed hitter is simply a hitting machine, consistently squaring up baseballs wherever he goes with a short, somewhat unconventional swing. He's not necessarily long through the zone, and his follow through is notably short, but his barrel is quick to the ball and he channels his above average power into that swing well. Encarnacion-Strand is an aggressive hitter who walked in only 7.5% of his plate appearances, and while he shows his fair share of swing and miss, it's not excessive. He's not a lock to stick at third base, especially in the shifting era, but his strong arm will give him a shot. He signed for slot value at $442,900.
5-159: LHP Christian MacLeod, Mississippi State. My rank: #146.
Christian MacLeod (pronounced "Ma-cloud") had an up and down season that saw his name creep into first round conversations early on, and he carried a 3.14 ERA into late May, but ultimately hit a wall and allowed 25 earned runs over his final 16.2 innings and finished with a 5.23 ERA and a 113/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings. He missed his freshman season with pneumonia and made just four starts in 2020 (albeit with a sparkling 0.86 ERA and a 35/6 K/BB), so durability was always a question and the late season skid didn't alleviate any concerns. At his best, the 6'4" lefty looks like a middle of the rotation stalwart, showing a low 90's fastball, a plus curveball, and an above average changeup, all while pounding the strike zone with a competitive edge. At other times, however, MacLeod's fastball can dip into the upper 80's, his curveball can lose its bite, and his changeup can play down to being an average pitch. Minnesota will hope a pro conditioning program and some coaching to smooth out his rigid delivery will help get him consistently to his best self, in which case he has a good shot to settle in as a consistent mid to back-end starter. Otherwise, the Huntsville native is probably destined for relief, where that delivery won't be as much of an issue and he won't have to pace himself when it comes to his stuff. Slot value is $327,200, and I figure he'll require something around there to sign.
7-219: 3B Jake Rucker, Tennessee. My rank: #165.
Jake Rucker wasn't much of a prospect early in his Tennessee career after hitting .273/.358/.339 as a freshman, but he's raked over the past two seasons to the tune of a .331/.404/.531 line, 12 home runs, and a 76/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games against a tough schedule. He shows great feel for the barrel from the right side that has enabled him to tap all of the power in his skinny 6'1" frame, proving to be one of the best hitters in a loaded Tennessee lineup. He struck out at over a 20% clip in 2021, which will be something to watch going forward, and it may necessitate sacrificing some of his power for more contact in pro ball. The Nashville-area native manned third base for the Volunteers this year and probably figures to stay there, with second base a possibility as well, and he profiles as an average defender at either. It's probably a utility profile for Rucker, but I like his bat and if he keeps hitting the way he has, he could force his way into the every day lineup eventually. That's nice value for his $250,000 signing bonus, which was $51,500 above slot value here in the seventh round.
8-249: C Noah Cardenas, UCLA. My rank: #239.
Noah Cardenas really put himself on the map by slashing .375/.476/.500 as a true freshman in 2019, and despite a quieter 2020 (.237/.367/.289 in the shortened season), he very much remained in the second round picture heading into 2021. Unfortunately, concerns about his impact ability at the plate turned out to be warranted, as he slashed a pedestrian .268/.371/.404 with five home runs and a 43/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for UCLA this year. Mostly a gap to gap line drive hitter over his first two years in Westwood, Cardenas looked for more impact this spring and that came with a slightly elevated strikeout rate, which at 17.1% still wasn't terribly high but higher than you'd like for a guy known for his strong bat to ball skills. Additionally, the Los Angeles-area native came into the season primarily known as a glove-first player that showed everything you looked for behind the plate: soft hands, a reliable arm, agility, and overall feel for the position. However, evaluators didn't see that same defender show up in 2021, where some noted that he looked a bit lazy back there. Cardenas' success in pro ball will likely hinge on him pulling his work ethic back together, but even before this spring I personally saw him more as a backup catcher than a full time starter. He ended up ranking near the very back of my rankings, which went 243 deep. Slot value is $164,700, but I could see him going slightly over slot like Rucker.
9-279: C Patrick Winkel, Connecticut. My rank: #224.
Thirty picks later, the Twins grabbed another college catcher who saw his stock fall a bit in 2021. Pat Winkel, like Noah Cardenas, had a strong freshman season, slashing .318/.361/.486 in 49 games. After missing 2020 with Tommy John surgery, he was more or less the same player in 2021, slashing .284/.357/.525 with eleven home runs and a 30/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. The numbers were very solid, and Winkel does have a pretty broad base of skills. There's average power in his 6'1" frame while his smooth left handed swing helps him tap it consistently, and he shored up his approach a little bit in 2021 to cut down on his strikeouts. Behind the plate, the New Haven-area native shows a good glove and an improving arm, adding to his appeal. Some evaluators see the nice individual parts but wonder if he's physical enough to put it all together in pro ball, where he'll be going up against players with louder tools. Winkel struggled in a brief Cape Cod League stint back in 2019, and overall he seems to have done most of his damage at the plate by feasting on less advanced arms. I like this package a little bit better than Cardenas, while the Twins are hoping their strong track record with college catchers (Ryan Jeffers, Mitch Garver) can help them turn Winkel into a surprise impact guy. Slot value is $150,500.
11-339: RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech. My rank: #184.
If Brandon Birdsell had been signable, he likely would have gone in the top five to seven rounds. If he had been both healthy and signable, we could have been talking about a top 100 pick. Birdsell was one of the top junior college prospects in the country last year out of San Jacinto, but he decided to head to Texas Tech instead to prove that his gains were for real and bump his draft stock further. Early in the season, that seemed to be the case, as his stuff was as nasty as ever and he pitched to a 3.06 ERA and a 36/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.1 innings. However, the Willis, Texas native was shut down in mid-April with shoulder problems and hasn't pitched since. When he was on the mound, Birdsell showed a mid 90's fastball that was touching as high as 99, as well as a short, powerful upper 80's slider, a newer curveball, and a changeup. Though not pinpoint, his command was strong enough to make everything play up, and he held that power stuff deep into his starts. The 6'2" righty doesn't have the smoothest delivery, which is very upright and features a brief pause in the back of his short arm action, so he does face some relief concerns. Personally, I don't have enough information on his shoulder to make a judgement on the health (and shoulders can be very scary), but if he does come back healthy, I see a ton of upside here. I doubt he signs though, and instead I expect him to roll the dice on a healthy return to the Red Raider rotation in 2022.
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