Friday, September 20, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Washington Nationals

Full list of draftees

The Nationals surprised many by going under slot on Seaver King, who saved them over $800,000 with the first pick and laid the groundwork for the rest of their class, which included an extra CBA pick at #39 acquired in the Hunter Harvey trade. While King had the largest bonus and will be the biggest name from the class, perhaps the biggest gamble will be second rounder Luke Dickerson who signed for one of the largest over slot bonuses in the entire class from any team. With a system chock full of outfield depth, the Nationals focused on catchers and infielders early and drafted just two outfielders in the entire class – eighth rounder Sam Petersen and eighteenth rounder Teo Banks. I'm lukewarm on this class overall, which includes some very high variance players like Caleb Lomavita, Dickerson, and Sir Jamison Jones, as well as some lower ceiling, "safe bet" types like King, Kevin Bazzell, and Jackson Kent.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-10: SS Seaver King, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $5.95 million. Signing bonus: $5.15 million ($803,800 below slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #17. Baseball America: #17.
With names like Braden Montgomery, Bryce Rainer, and Trey Yesavage still on the board, this pick surprised some in the industry but it made more sense as the Nationals saved over $800,000, signing him for just over the slot value of the #14 pick. Seaver King, besides having one of the best baseball names in the draft, brings a really interesting profile to the table. He began his career at Division II Wingate, then transferred to Wake Forest after hitting .399 over two seasons. Any concerns about his ability to hit ACC pitching were assuaged when he smashed his way to a .424/.479/.524 line in sixteen games in the Cape Cod League, success which carried over to a strong senior season with the Demon Deacons. King is listed at 6', 195 pounds and doesn't have much projection on his slender frame, but he packs a lot of punch. The Athens, Georgia native is an extremely aggressive hitter that makes plenty of contact regardless, leading to tons of balls in play with low strikeout and walk rates. He covers the whole plate effectively and, as mentioned, had zero issues with the large jump in competition from Division II to the Cape/ACC, so his combination of pitch recognition and bat to ball give him an above average hit tool. Meanwhile, he doesn't look it but there is very significant raw power in the tank. King is mostly a line drive hitter but the ball jumps off his bat like few others in the class, showing plus raw power that plays closer to average or above average in games due to the approach. Key for him going forward will be becoming just a bit more selective at the plate, better finding pitches he can lift and drive while also adding a few more walks onto the stat line. On the other side of the ball, he's a plus runner who has seen playing time all over the diamond. The hope is that he can stick at shortstop, where he has enough arm strength and range to make it work if he can refine his glovework, but he could end up at second base, third base, or center field. Wherever he does play, he should be a net-positive on defense in addition to potentially becoming a 20+ home run hitter with high batting averages and plenty of stolen bases. He had no trouble with the jump to minor league pitching, where he hit .295/.367/.385 with ten stolen bases and a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio over twenty games for Low A Fredericksburg, but the power didn't show up in the small sample.

CBA-39: C Caleb Lomavita, California {video}
Slot value: $2.4 million. Signing bonus: $2.33 million ($70,000 below slot value).
My rank: #28. MLB Pipeline: #33. Baseball America: #18.
Despite being a college bat, historically the safest demographic, Caleb Lomavita was one of the most polarizing prospects in the first round due to his unconventional profile. He has been one of the better catchers in college baseball over the past couple seasons and at times in 2024 was projected as high as the middle of the first round. He surprisingly slid to the Nationals' CBA pick, where I was sure he was going to require an above-slot bonus, but he wound up signing slightly below slot value which makes this an outstanding pick no matter where you stand on him. In fact, given the signing bonus, I'd say this was my favorite pick of the draft for the Nationals. Lomavita, like Seaver King, is an extremely aggressive hitter that swings at anything and everything, in fact running even higher chase rates and even lower walk rates than his first round counterpart. Also similar to King, he has strong bat to ball ability and limits his strikeouts despite the high chase rate, though he did swing and miss more in 2024 and his strikeout rate jumped to a still-respectable 16.7% after coming in at a strong 11.1% a year ago. Despite this, he has a long history of hitting advanced pitching and slashed .314/.357/.442 over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. The barrel chested, 5'11", 200 pound Honolulu native can really drive the ball too, with above average raw power that he taps consistently in games with his leveraged right handed swing that gets long through the zone and puts nice loft on the ball. Similar to King, if he can get more selective at the plate (and he has a longer way to go in that regard), he could become an all around force at the plate. The upside here is 20-25 home runs per season with decent batting averages. Lomavita is also extremely athletic for a catcher, with solid run times and impressive fluidity and flexibility behind the plate. His glovework itself is a bit raw, but given his physical talent he should be a solid defensive catcher once he cleans that up. The athleticism elevates his ceiling on both sides of the ball and if you can get the approach right, I think he could be a very special hitter. But the approach does need a lot of work. Lomavita hit .213/.310/.246 with a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over seventeen games in a brief stint at Low A Fredericksburg.

2-44: SS Luke Dickerson, Morris Knolls HS [NJ] {video}
Slot value: $2.12 million. Signing bonus: $3.8 million ($1.68 million above slot value).
My rank: #47. MLB Pipeline: #49. Baseball America: #56.
This was the pick that shaped the Nationals' draft strategy. Scouts had to wait for the North Jersey weather to warm up, but once it did, Luke Dickerson had one of the most impressive springs of any high schooler in the country. That led to a meteoric rise up draft boards, moving from the middle of day two up into day one territory and eventually into second round projections as the draft rolled around, but the Nationals saw him as a clear-cut first round talent and paid him as such, paying him roughly the slot value of the #22 pick to steer him away from a UVA commitment. Dickerson had a senior year to remember, winning both a hockey and a baseball state championship three months apart and once scoring five (!) goals in one game on the ice. He is a powderkeg athlete that has packed a ton of muscle into his 5'11" frame over the past year without sacrificing any quickness, making for a superb package to build from. Dickerson has a quick right handed swing that naturally produces above average power he tapped much more often in games in 2024, in fact tying Mike Trout's New Jersey high school record with eighteen home runs as a senior. With little wasted movement and an accurate barrel, he was a monster that North Jersey pitching could not get out. However, he's unproven against more advanced pitching and if there's one hole in his profile, it's that we don't know how he'll handle the jump in competition. Dickerson is also a plus runner with excellent glovework on the infield, though his fringy arm will move off shortstop to second base. With his quickness, athleticism, and polish, he could become an above average or even plus defender at the keystone. There's a ton of upside here, and the Nationals spent the rest of the draft scrapping together bonus pool space to pay for it.

3-79: C Kevin Bazzell, Texas Tech {video}
Slot value: $980,300. Signing bonus: $980,300.
My rank: #90. MLB Pipeline: #55. Baseball America: #68.
I was a bit lower on Kevin Bazzell than much of the industry, but he's still a very nice addition alongside Caleb Lomavita to a shallow depth chart behind the plate in the Nationals system. Bazzell initially enrolled at Dallas Baptist, but transferred out after a semester and didn't play his freshman spring at Texas Tech. He's been one of the toughest outs in the Big 12 since then, playing himself into the second tier of college catchers for the 2024 draft. The Dallas-area native is an elite contact hitter, putting up the highest contact rate of any of the 145 college hitters on the Baseball America 500 this year. I'll repeat that – he made contact with 89.5% of the pitches he swung at, more than any draft-eligible college bat with significant interest. This is a man who never, ever whiffs, especially in the zone, with a simple, effortless right handed swing that just flicks the barrel at the ball and uses his natural strength to send it deep. The power isn't quite as impressive, with fringe-average pop that amounted to just six home runs in 2024. If he wants to earn regular playing time in the bigs, he'll have to find a way to dramatically increase his power output as he switches from metal to wood bats, something I'm not sold he'll do especially in a Nationals system that does not develop hitters well. If he can, though, there's solid upside as an everyday catcher that can knock 10-15 home runs per season with high averages, perhaps something similar to a taller Paul Lo Duca. Bazzell only began catching in high school and is a bit raw behind the plate, but it's nothing egregious and his athleticism and arm strength should hold down the fort until he polishes up the glovework a little bit. The bat certainly profiles better behind the plate than elsewhere, such as in a corner outfield spot, and he should be able to make that work. He hit .273/.433/.386 with a 10/11 strikeout to walk ratio over fourteen games at Low A Fredericksburg, showing off the plus hit tool as well as the questionable power.

4-108: LHP Jackson Kent, Arizona {video}
Slot value: $676,000. Signing bonus: $625,000 ($51,000 below slot value).
My rank: #178. MLB Pipeline: #136. Baseball America: #138.
Most years, the Nationals draft a pitchability college arm early on, especially a lefty like Jake Bennett (2022) and Dustin Saenz (2021). This year, it was Jackson Kent and he'll fit right into a system that loves to develop these types. Kent redshirted his freshman season at Arizona, served as a swingman as a sophomore, then had his best year yet as the Wildcats' ace in 2024. The stuff is pretty average all around. His fastball sits in the low 90's and tops out around 95 with nice riding life, making it a solid average pitch. From there, Kent has a full arsenal of secondaries including a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. The slider is the best breaker with average life and velocity, while his curveball is a bit loopier and serves as a get me over type. The cutter provides a nice alternate look from his fastball, while his changeup is his lone above average pitch with late, heavy fade. He relies heavily on that changeup and it should continue to help him miss bats and work through lineups in pro ball while the Nationals look to bring the rest of his arsenal along. The 6'3" lefty gets down the mound well with an athletic, repeatable delivery that could project a tick more of velocity, pounding the strike zone with above average command to help all of his pitches play up. Kent also has a moderately low release height with solid extension, adding a little extra hop to his pitches. With a durable frame, good command, and a deep arsenal with an out pitch, Kent projects as a solid #4 or #5 starter who can eat innings and pitch in the big leagues a long time.

5-141: SS Randal Diaz, Indiana State {video}
Slot value: $490,500. Signing bonus: $420,000 ($70,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Randal Diaz is a nice find for the Nationals if a bit off the radar. He has performed for three seasons at Indiana State and had his best year in 2024, when he was named First Team All-MVC and finished the season on a 32 game hitting streak. Diaz has a strong, compact right handed swing that produces solid raw power without selling out. That simple swing helps him make plenty of contact and produce consistently, keeping his strikeout rates down and his on-base percentages up. While he didn't face the strongest competition in the Missouri Valley Conference, he impressed at the Lexington Regional where he went 7-18 (.389 AVG) with a pair of home runs against Kentucky, Illinois, and Western Michigan. ISU's everyday shortstop in 2024, he was drafted as such and has plenty of arm strength to stick on the left side of the infield. He may be forced to move to third base if he slows down at all, where his arm will play and his more methodical actions will fit well. The Puerto Rican has the chance to be a solid-all around contributor with average to above average tools across the board if it breaks right, showing consistent on-base ability, some power, and a net-positive glove.

6-170: RHP Davian Garcia, Florida Gulf Coast {video}
Slot value: $372,300. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($52,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Davian Garcia brings sneaky upside to the Nationals, and he's also the team's lone day two over slot signing. Garcia has been all around the state of Florida, having begun his career at Division II Flagler in 2022, transferring to Pasco Hernando JC in 2023, then finally spending 2024 at Florida Gulf Coast where he transitioned nicely to Division I competition. The Tampa native brings tremendous arm strength with a fastball that sits in the mid 90's and touches 98 at peak, coming in with lots of riding life to make it explode on hitters. The fastball is his best pitch right now, but he does have a solid slider in the mid 80's that could sharpen up into a real out pitch. Garcia has long arm action that to less experienced hitters could make the ball tough to pick up, though more advanced hitters might get the opposite effect and get a better look at his grip. He has pounded the zone effectively at FGCU, which can be a concern with guys with his arm action, and has stayed healthy thus far, another potential concern. Garcia will have to continue to hold both his command and his health together with the larger workload in pro ball, and the Nationals will look to help him refine his secondary stuff as well. The arm strength and plus fastball give him plenty to work off, and he's also young for the class and won't turn 21 until October. Garcia has a very good shot to be the best pitcher in this Nationals draft class when it's all said and done.

7-200: RHP Robert Cranz, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $290,300. Signing bonus: $190,000 ($100,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Robert Cranz marks the Nationals first significant under slot bonus since the first round, and he figures to be the quick moving relief type we know they like. Cranz spent two seasons at Wichita State before transferring to Oklahoma State in 2024, where he finished with a 1.26 ERA and allowed just 25 baserunners in 28.2 innings. The fastball is not overwhelming by college reliever standards, sitting in the low 90's and topping out in the mid 90's, but it plays up with huge riding action that creates a lot of empty swings. He can cut it when he needs to as well, or turn it over into a true slider with late bite. Cranz stands out more for his ability to command and execute his pitches, working up, down, in, and out effectively when he needs to. His feel for his slider is especially notable and will serve him well in pro ball as he works it below the zone or out on the edges to drive chases in short stints. He's the kind of pitcher than can effectively pitch forwards or backwards. The 6'3" righty is also plenty physical and if it weren't for his complete lack of track record going more than a couple innings at a time, you'd almost think he could start. That seems unlikely though, and instead he figures to move quickly through the minors as a strike throwing, high pitchability type with two above average pitches. He already made quick work of Low A hitters, tossing six shutout innings over four appearances, allowing just three baserunners while striking out seven for Fredericksburg.

8-230: OF Sam Petersen, Iowa {video}
Slot value: $230,900. Signing bonus: $230,900.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #205. Baseball America: #184.
There are some similarities here to Nationals 2021 seventh rounder and current center fielder Jacob Young, albeit with a bit more power and a bit less defense. He's a three year starter at Iowa that was off to a hot start in 2024 before shin splints cut his season short in April, but the Nationals saw plenty to make him their full slot eighth round pick. He has a tight right handed swing that produces fringe-average raw power, enough to keep pitchers honest and slug .579 over the past two seasons at Iowa. There's a bit more swing and miss than you'd like in this profile, but he's a pretty patient hitter that keeps his strikeouts to a reasonable rate and performed well against strong pitching in the Cape Cod League (.297/.412/.369). Overall, he projects as a fringe-average hitter with fringe-average power. Peterson is a plus runner who has stolen 37 bases in 40 tries over the past two seasons and added fifteen more on the Cape, adding an important dimension to his offensive game, and he has a chance to play center field in pro ball. That gives him an outside shot to play every day in the majors similar to Young, though he's not quite the defender that Young is. His most likely role is as a fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield positions, though his below average arm makes right field more of a stretch than center field. Petersen hit well in a brief stint at Low A Fredericksburg, slashing .364/.400/.591 with a 6/1 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games.

12-350: RHP Alexander Meckley, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #421.
Alexander Meckley brings a big arm and a ton of talent to the Nats organization, making for a really nice find in the twelfth round. Meckley is a semi-local guy, having grown up just over the border in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, only about sixty miles north of Washington. He began his career at Potomac State JC in Keyser, West Virginia, where he developed into an ace and earned the opportunity to transfer to Coastal Carolina as one of the more intriguing incoming transfer arms in the country. He started strong in Conway, holding a 2.60 ERA through his first five starts, but allowed 25 runs in just ten innings over his next four and wound up in the bullpen. Meckley has big stuff. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 97 in relief, coming in with hard riding action and chewing up bats when he locates it. He adds a pair of hard breaking balls that look like potential above average pitches when he spins them right, though they're inconsistent can get hit when he hangs them. Meckley doesn't kill himself with walks but his control is far ahead of his command, leading to him getting hit harder than his stuff says he should. The Nationals could choose to be patient and stretch him out as a starter, where he'll have to add a changeup and refine his command, but he does look durable enough to do so. The 6'2" righty will likely end up in the bullpen in the long run, where he can focus on his fastball and breaking balls and just gas hitters up. Meckley is on the younger side for the class and turned 21 just before the draft, giving Washington a little extra time to play with his development. Working as a reliever in his pro debut, he tossed 5.2 shutout innings over three appearances while striking out five against four walks for Low A Fredericksburg.

14-410: RHP Yoel Tejeda Jr., Florida State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $225,000 ($75,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Nationals went big in the fourteenth round. Really big, actually – 6'8". Yoel Tejeda pitched one season each at Florida and Florida State, where he combined for unremarkable numbers: 5.74 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 26/29 K/BB in 42.1 innings. Ironically, he's been much, much better in two seasons in the Cape Cod League (3.52 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 37/14 K/BB in 30.2 innings). Tejeda's fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 97 at peak with plenty of running action. He has a tight slider with nice finish, then adds a splitter that he has solid feel for. Despite pitching at two of the premier programs in college baseball, the Nationals believe the South Florida native is just scratching the surface of what he could be, with good athleticism and an unbelievably projectable frame at a young age, only turning 21 shortly before the draft. Tejeda already has close to average control and as he continues growing into his massive frame, he could wind up with average or better command in time. He projects as a potential back-end starter at peak, though he has little starting experience to this point and will need considerable refinement to get to that ceiling.

15-440: C Sir Jamison Jones, St. Rita of Cascia HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($350,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #372.
Besides having one of the coolest names in the draft, Sir Jamison Jones also took home the Nationals' largest signing bonus after the fourth round, signing away from an Oklahoma State commitment for early fifth round money. Jones is big and physical, to say the least. Clocking in at 6'3", 225 pounds, he has a big league body that could go head to head with any prospect in the system. That translates to big time power potential from the right side, and he's already making strides towards tapping that power more in games. For now the swing can get rigid and lack loft, but it looked a bit better in 2024 than it had in the past. Jones also has a raw approach at the plate and will need to prove himself better against more advanced stuff, so he may take a little longer to work his way out of the low minors. His physicality translates behind the plate, where as with his bat, he's a bit raw. The Chicago-area product has a strong arm that makes up somewhat for a slower transfer, and he'll need to clean up his glovework handling pro pitching staffs. There's a very wide range between Jones' ceiling and his floor, with the possibility he ends up anywhere from a middle of the lineup catcher to a power hitting first baseman to a flameout who never reaches the majors.

19-560: RHP Ryan Minckler, Niagara {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Ryan Minckler didn't take your typical path to pro ball. He actually grew up in Bangkok, Thailand, then moved to New Hampshire in high school. He began his college career at UVA but never made it into a game, so he transferred to Niagara where he has acquitted himself nicely. Minckler's fastabll sits around 90 but ticked up late in the season, reaching 96 in the Stillwater Regional. He has an average slider with nice depth, but his changeup/splitter combination steals the show with bottomless fading action. He controls the strike zone well and has a chance to start in pro ball with his deep arsenal, physical frame, and repeatable delivery. His newfound velocity will be helpful as well if he can keep it on the right side of 90 over longer stints in pro ball, though the idea of Minckler sitting 94-95 in short stints while pitching off the changeup and splitter seems like a very nice fallback option.

Monday, September 16, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

As has become a trend for them, the Tigers went heavy on preps in 2024, drafting high schoolers with their first three picks and then taking a five in the later rounds. They didn't sign all of those later gambles, with the biggest "one that got away" being Kansas City righty Anson Seibert on his way to a Tennessee commitment, but did pick up a few. It's a pitching-heavy class beyond first rounder Bryce Rainer, though they paused briefly to grab a trio of college bats in the middle of day two with some really interesting data profiles.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-11: SS Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $5.71 million. Signing bonus: $5.8 million ($87,900 above slot value).
My rank: #9. MLB Pipeline: #10. Baseball America: #10.
The Tigers grabbed a top-two high school bat for the second straight season, following Max Clark in 2023 with Bryce Rainer in 2024. Rainer hails from the same Harvard-Westlake School in the LA Hills that famously produced Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and now Pete Crow-Armstrong, and he has a chance to be the best of all of them. He was a two-way player for the Wolverines who could have been a day one draft pick as a pitcher, running his fastball up to 96 with the makings of a solid breaking ball and changeup, but he'll hit for Detroit. Rainer entered the spring projected in the back of the first round, then embarked on an excellent senior season that saw him elevate virtually every aspect of his game. Previously forced to sell out for power, he showed up looking more physical in 2024 and was able to access that power much more freely and easily without sacrificing any thump. He's long and athletic in the box and generates a ton of torque with his left handed swing, with a shot at plus power at the next level. At the same time, Rainer came out this spring showing much better barrel accuracy and performed against top pitching around Southern California, quelling many swing and miss questions and looking like a much more complete hitter. This is a bat that could swat 25-30 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages, which would put him in the middle of any lineup. He's always had that plus arm, but his defense looked much more fluid this spring as well and he now looks like a bona fide shortstop. Rainer moves well on the dirt and shows more speed than you'd expect given his bigger 6'3" frame, and he didn't slow down at all despite packing on more muscle last winter. There's still more projection remaining and the LA kid has a chance to be one of the best players in this class. He had previously been committed to Texas.

2-49: RHP Owen Hall, Edmond North HS [OK] {video}
Slot value: $1.89 million. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($143,700 below slot value).
My rank: #78. MLB Pipeline: #74. Baseball America: #86.
Three years ago, the Tigers grabbed Jackson Jobe with their first round pick and while he hasn't always stayed healthy, he's looked excellent on the mound. This year, the Tigers went back to the Oklahoma City high school ranks to take another prep righty, this time Owen Hall, and signed him slightly below slot value to pull him away from a Vanderbilt commitment. Hall has long been a famous name in this class, having pushed himself into the first round conversation at various points during his high school career. While others have since passed him and he finds himself selected in the second round, he's still an elite arm. Hall's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 with riding life from an over the top slot. He rips off an above average slider with nice sharp bite, then rounds out his arsenal with a decent strike-stealing curveball and an average changeup. The 6'3" righty has a clean, picturesque delivery that he repeats well and features very little wasted movement, helping him pound the strike zone with average command and above average control. Hall is very strong right now and still has projection remaining, looking like he'll be plenty durable as a starter in the long run. If there's a bone to pick with the profile, it's that his delivery might be almost too clean and lack deception, leading to his pitches playing a little true. However, between the size, strength, projection, deep arsenal, and control, Hall looks like as "safe" a starting pitching prospect as you'll find for second round money while retaining plenty of upside.

CBB-72: LHP Ethan Schiefelbein, Corona HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $1.09 million. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($703,900 above slot value).
My rank: #88. MLB Pipeline: #94. Baseball America: #91.
Ethan Schiefelbein makes it back to back prep pitchers and three straight preps overall to start the draft, this time signing for well above slot value (roughly the value of the #51 pick) to eschew a UCLA commitment. While Bryce Rainer is up to 96 and Owen Hall is up to 98, Schiefelbein is more of a finesse lefty who sits in the low 90's and touches 94 at best. His fastball, though, plays well above its modest velocity because because of sneaky life that gives it some "invisiball" qualities while he hides the pitch well in the delivery. He has feel for a pair of nice breaking balls in a slider and a changeup, which get nice depth and miss high school bats at a high rate. Lastly, his changeup is still fairly raw but his acumen on the mound should enable him to develop it effectively in pro ball. The 6'2" lefty repeats his athletic delivery well and throws all four of his pitches with conviction, helping him pound the strike zone with above average command. The Tigers see a ton of projection on the 18 year old and think he can add significant power to both his fastball and his secondary stuff, which when combined with his pitchability and handedness could make him a mid-rotation starter.

3-85: RHP Josh Randall, San Diego {video}
Slot value: $892,600. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($192,600 below slot value).
My rank: #163. MLB Pipeline: #143. Baseball America: #223.
The Tigers made Josh Randall their third pick from Southern California out of four, and he'll be their first college pick. Randall began his career at Arizona, where he struggled to an 8.66 ERA in limited action over two seasons, then transferred to San Diego and where he served as the Toreros' ace in 2024. Another power arm, he sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 with a ton of run and sink from a low three quarters slot. He has a hard, short slider that gives him another above average weapon, while his firm changeup flashes average or better potential but needs further refinement. Randall gives hitters a really tough look, with his low three quarters slot and low release point playing up further because he gets down the mound very well with nice extension. While he struggled mightily with command at Arizona, he dropped his walk rate from 20% in Tucson to 8% in San Diego, now looking at least average in that regard. Now there's the question of whether he can start. Some may point to his delivery, which features a bit of a crouch and that low three quarters release point, as well as his shallow arsenal, and see him as more of a reliever. The Tigers, however, will look to his size (6'4", 240 pounds), arm strength, athleticism, and newfound command to get him through the lineup multiple times every turn in the rotation. They'll work to bring the changeup along and hold the command together – otherwise, the Southern California native has most of what it takes to start in pro ball. If not, he'll be a funky fastball/slider reliever with power stuff. In two appearances for Low A Lakeland, he allowed two runs in four innings while striking out a pair and walking none, though he did hit two.

4-114: RHP Michael Massey, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $637,200. Signing bonus: $522,500 ($114,700 below slot value).
My rank: #104. MLB Pipeline: #109. Baseball America: #94.
Michael Massey, not to be confused with the Royals infielder of the same name, has had a bit of an up and down ride but brings plenty of arm talent to Detroit. He began his career at Tulane, then transferred to Wake Forest after one season and was nearly untouchable out of the bullpen as a sophomore in 2023. Massey's stock rose when Wake Forest announced he'd be a part of the rotation in 2024, with top fifty projections rolling in preseason and many thinking he could rise into the first round. However, his stuff and command took a step back in longer outings and he watched his strikeout (47.2% to 32.1%) and walk (9.9% to 15.1%) rates move heavily in the wrong directions. After reaching 98 in the bullpen, Massey's fastball sat more in the low 90's and topped out around 94-95 in longer outings, though it retained its elite riding life with a true north-south profile. His slider looks plus at its best, and while he threw it harder in short stints in 2023, it still showed nasty late bite in 2024 and missed a ton of bats. He added a truer downer curveball in 2024 as well which he struggled to command at times, but it missed plenty of bats as well when he executed it in the zone. Massey doesn't use his changeup much in games but has shown a decent one in bullpen sessions. The 6'5" righty hides the ball well with short arm action and uses his size to get elite extension down the mound, giving his stuff that much more hop out of his hand. While he repeated his delivery well in short stints, the command ticked back in 2024 and looked fringier. The Tigers could still try him out as a starter given his size and arm strength, though he'll need to continue to be methodically stretched out to get the most out of his high octane stuff. If he moves back to the bullpen, he could lean back on that fastball/slider combination that served him so well in 2023 and move quickly.

5-147: SS Jack Penney, Notre Dame {video}
Slot value: $462,300. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($64,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #500.
With their sixth pick, the Tigers finally went for a college bat, and they wound up with the metrically intriguing Jack Penney. Penney was a two year starter and three year contributor at Notre Dame, where he never posted eye popping stats but showed very well under the surface. A hit over power type, the Boston-area product takes some of the best at bats in the class with an extremely disciplined approach that led to ultra low chase rates and an impressive 16.0% walk rate in 2024. On top of that, he makes plenty of contact and struck out in just 13.9% of his plate appearances, making for a really well-rounded hit tool. That advanced bat played up on the Cape, where he hit .284/.376/.404 with five home runs and a 39/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games. While he's content to drive the ball around the field for singles and doubles, he has a sneaky quick bat that produces fringe-average power and he can really turn on the ball for average pop to his pull side. Given his pitch selection and bat to ball aptitude, I could see a slightly more power-oriented approach working in pro ball and he has a shot for 10-15 home runs per season to go with high on-base percentages at peak. The bat looks even better considering his glove, as he'll likely stick on the infield. Shortstop may be a stretch with average defensive tools, but he could profile very well at second or third base. That's some nice upside for a fifth rounder signed a bit below slot value. He got a brief cup of coffee at Low A Lakeland after the draft, slashing .255/.367/.392 with and 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over fourteen games.

6-176: SS Woody Hadeen, UC Irvine {video}
Slot value: $354,100. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($54,100 below slot value).
My rank: #153. MLB Pipeline: #130. Baseball America: #401.
This is one of the most extreme profiles in the entire draft, and it's certainly a fun one. Metrically speaking, it's also one of the best hit tools in the entire class. Out of 145 college hitters on the Baseball America 500, no hitter came even close to matching 8.4% chase rate, with the next best being Samford's Garrett Howe (now with the Guardians) at 12.1%. Meanwhile, his 89.4% contact rate was second only to Texas Tech's Kevin Bazzell (now with the Nationals), who was just ahead at 89.5%. This is a man who, frankly speaking, never ever chases and when he does swing, never ever whiffs. It's probably the most extreme contact-oriented approaches in the class, as Hadeen just slaps the ball around the field with no regard for lifting or turning on it and just searches for holes a la Luis Arraez. A switch hitter, he has an elite eye and elite hand eye coordination, showing some similarities to last year's Pirates second rounder (and Saginaw native/Michigan State alum) Mitch Jebb. Not only did he get on base at a .524 (!) clip for UC Irvine this spring, he actually hit .424 (14-33) in a tiny eight game sample in the Cape Cod League back in 2022. Of course there's a tradeoff, and Hadeen lasted until the sixth round because of his power. Not only did he have (by far) the lowest chase rate and the second highest contact rate out of 145 hitters, he also had the lowest 90th percentile exit velocity at 98.7 MPH. That's 30 grade power, and he hit just one home run in 155 career games in Irvine. Hadeen is almost exclusively a singles hitter whose entire offensive value will come from his on-base percentage. Listed at 6'2", he's big enough and whips the bat around well enough to probably tack on a little additional power in pro ball, but that's not his game. Meanwhile, he's an above average runner with strong instincts to deploy his speed well, which helps him on both sides of the ball. He can play anywhere on the field, with shortstop a real possibility even if his arm is a bit stretched there. The Southern California native most likely projects as a light hitting utility infielder. Luis Arraez comparisons, as I noted above, will be common and would represent his absolute ceiling if everything breaks right. In a short four game stint for Low A Lakeland, he picked up one hit in nine at bats while walking twice and striking out once.

9-266: RHP Zach Swanson, Toutle Lake HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: $195,100. Signing bonus: $722,500 ($527,400 above slot value).
My rank: #206. MLB Pipeline: #178. Baseball America: #160.
The Tigers made one more splash here in the ninth round, grabbing another expensive high school arm by going half a million over slot value (late third round money, roughly pick #101) to sign Zach Swanson away from an Oregon State commitment. Swanson starts things off with a low 90's fastball that gets up to 95, playing up with riding life. His high spin slider is his best pitch, coming in with late bite that dives under bats and looks above average. He has great feel for it and is willing to throw it in any count, a separator for a high school arm. His changeup, meanwhile, is a distant third pitch and will need significant refinement in pro ball. Swanson is a very good athlete but throws with considerable effort on the mound, showing heavy head whack that impacts his command and leads to bouts of inconsistency. The delivery will likely need to be overhauled as well in pro ball, and that could unlock much more upside than expected. If the Tigers can iron him out, he has mid rotation upside, with a fallback option as a fastball/slider reliever.

15-446: OF Zach MacDonald, Miami [OH] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
If Zach MacDonald reaches the majors, I believe he would be the first Michigander since Eric Haase (Westland) to play for the Tigers. MacDonald grew up Portage, a suburb of Kalamazoo, where he attended Portage Central High School. He spent the last three seasons at Miami of Ohio, where he has long shown power but put it all together in 2024. A local favorite of Midwest area scouts, MacDonald provides nice upside for a college pick this late in the draft, with plenty of tools that could make him an impact player if he pulls everything together. He creates nice separation in his right handed swing with a leveraged stroke that gets long through the zone and lifts the ball with authority. He previously struggled with swing and miss and struck out at a 31.3% clip in 2023, an extremely high number especially for a hitter in a mid major conference, but cut that number down to 20.2% in 2024. That's still a bit of an elevated number, and while his barrel accuracy has improved dramatically, he can still get under the ball and may be susceptible to quality fastballs up in the zone. MacDonald is a solid runner as well and should be able to hold is own in all three outfield spots, which helps his projection as a dynamic fourth outfielder. He'll have to continue to clean up his swing and miss as he makes the jump from the MAC to pro pitching, with age working in his favor as he didn't turn 21 until after the draft. He didn't quite find his footing in a short eight game stint at Low A Lakeland, where he hit .161/.235/.290 with an 18/3 strikeout to walk ratio.

Saturday, September 14, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Boston Red Sox

Full list of draftees

I thought this was a really interesting draft for Boston. They started things off with the power hitting Braden Montgomery, who was projected as high as the top five picks at times this spring, then completely shifted their draft philosophy from there. After Montgomery, it was fourteen pitchers (including two way players) out of nineteen picks, often with a heavy emphasis on unique fastballs that they can get creative with developmentally. The few hitters they did target were not power hitters like Montgomery, rather contact-driven profiles where the Red Sox think they can bring out additional thump to go with high batting averages and on-base percentages. They also saved money on most picks so they could push all of their over-slot chips in on eighth rounder Conrad Cason, an electric two-way prep star.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-12: OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $5.48 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($484,600 below slot value).
My rank: #8. MLB Pipeline: #8. Baseball America: #7.
It was already a surprise that Braden Montgomery lasted until the Red Sox' pick at #12, and the fact that they got him for half a million under slot value makes this an absolute steal. In Montgomery, Boston may be getting a legitimate top five talent in the class. He was a highly regarded two-way prep prospect in the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2021, earning significant top 100 interest as both a hitter and a pitcher, but as a strong student as well was expected to be a difficult sign away from Stanford. In Palo Alto, Montgomery immediately blasted eighteen home runs as a true freshman and struck out 28 in 18.2 innings. He elevated his profile further with a huge sophomore season at the plate that put him squarely in the first round conversation, while his command took a step backwards. Upon transferring to Texas A&M for his junior year in 2024, he all but gave up pitching to focus on becoming one of the very best hitters in the nation. And boy did he, blasting 27 home runs and slashing .322/.454/.733 along the way before a fractured ankle in super regionals ended his season. Montgomery is a switch hitter with smooth, majestic swings from both sides of the plate. Built rock solid at 6'2", 220 pounds, his natural strength helps him produce massive raw power without selling out, leading to more than a few light tower moonshots this season that may pose a danger to any Goodyear blimps floating outside. He has always been power over hit, but he has really cleaned up his approach in school and increased his walk rate from 6.5% as a freshman to 16.5% as a sophomore to 18.0% as a junior. Previously over aggressive at the plate, he now has a more balanced approach and does a good job controlling the strike zone. If there was one knock against him in the context of the top of the first round, it was a contact rate that was a bit lower than his contemporaries vying for that top handful of picks. His improved approach makes that less of an issue, but he still does whiff more than you'd like in the zone. That majestic power, though, is hard to pass up. Montgomery isn't much of a runner and will be limited to a corner outfield spot, but he has a true 80 grade arm that you have to see to believe. That makes him a weapon in right field that can completely shut down the running game from 300+ feet away. At this point, Montgomery is not going back to pitching but he does have interesting stuff on the mound. His fastball reaches 98 in short stints with tremendous riding action out of a low slot, making it a bit of a unicorn pitch, but his command has simply never materialized. The Red Sox were at their best with David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez hitting in the middle of the lineup, and now they could use a new franchise bat to join Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers in this generation's iteration.

2-50: LHP Payton Tolle, Texas Christian {video}
Slot value: $1.85 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($153,600 above slot value).
My rank: #66. MLB Pipeline: #87. Baseball America: #82.
This is a really interesting pick to me. Payton Tolle got drafted about a dozen or two picks before he was projected, then got a little extra on top for his signing bonus. Tolle began his career as a two-way player at Wichita State, where he hit .313/.359/.516 with sixteen home runs while also going 13-9 with a 4.56 ERA on the mound over two seasons. When he transferred to TCU for his junior season, the Horned Frogs expected him to anchor down the middle of their lineup while also contributing a little on the mound. Instead, they got the opposite as he hit just .182/.303/.327 with a pair of home runs but was meanwhile named the Big 12 Pitcher of the Year while tying for eleventh in the nation striking out 125 hitters. Tolle is a very interesting pitching prospect. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, which is nice velocity but nothing overwhelming, but it plays way above its velocity because he gets elite extension down the mound. He's a huge guy at 6'6", 250 pounds and when he rumbles down that mound and gets out over his plant foot, he's releasing the ball right in front of the hitter's face. The fastball is the show stealer, and the Red Sox will want to bring his secondaries a long a little bit. His slider can vary in shape, looking softer and deeper at times and tighter and harder at others. He has nice feel for a changeup, though he doesn't use it a ton and will need to better incorporate it against pro hitters. Tolle's size, extension, and handedness give him an elite fastball that you just won't find anywhere else, and the rest you can figure out later. The Oklahoma City-area native doesn't have pinpoint command, but he uses his size effectively to repeat his delivery well and just kind of slings the ball in there, filling up the zone with plenty of strikes and letting the carry on his fastball eat its way through the zone. He's a fun prospect to follow.

3-86: RHP Brandon Neely, Florida {video}
Slot value: $878,800. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($178,800 below slot value).
My rank: #89. MLB Pipeline: #193. Baseball America: #212.
I feel vindicated on this one. Amid Brandon Neely's strong finish to the season, I shot him way up my draft board into the top one hundred, then was surprised to see most major outlets leave him deep into day two range. The Red Sox wound up taking him right near the start of day three, and I love the pick. Neely was a well-known prospect out of Spruce Creek High School in the Daytona Beach area, where he was teammates with Rockies 2020 first round pick Zac Veen, but made it to campus at Florida where Veen had also been committed. Contending with a deep Florida pitching staff, Neely showed well as a swingman as a freshman in 2022 and worked out of the bullpen in 2023, then hit a rough stretch in 2024 that put his season ERA up to 6.97 as late as mid-May. Florida really should not have made the NCAA Tournament after going just 28-27 prior to regionals, but they snuck in anyways and that committee decision probably doubled Neely's signing bonus. Perhaps no player on that team, I'd argue not even Jac Caglianone (who hit .444 with six home runs in eleven games), did as much to power Florida's improbable run to the College World Series as Brandon Neely. Appearing in seven of Florida's eleven games, he allowed just five runs over 24 innings (1.88 ERA) with an excellent 32/6 strikeout to walk ratio against the best competition college baseball had to offer. The stuff looked crisper than ever, and it was good enough to vault way up my draft board. The fastball can sit in the low to mid 90's and touch 97 in short stints, jumping on hitters with a ton of running life from an excellent release point. The 6'3" righty explodes down the mound extremely well with well above average extension and a low release point that makes the fastball's average riding life look all the more explosive, helping him regularly overwhelm hitters as it eats through the top of the zone. His sharp, power slider gets into the upper 80's and stands out more for its velocity than its movement, though it has the potential to be an above average pitch, while his curveball is more of a fringy strike stealer and his changeup looks average. Neely is an explosive athlete that pounds the strike zone with conviction, making all of his pitches play up despite average command as he's not afraid to go right after hitters. Though he has mostly pitched in relief for the Gators, he has a chance to start in pro ball with his lean, athletic frame, deep arsenal, and ability to throw strikes. If he has to move back to the bullpen, he thrives in high pressure situations and will be able to focus on his fastball/slider combination. This will be a fun follow.

4-115: OF Zach Ehrhard, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $630,900. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($130,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #221. Baseball America: #399.
The Red Sox drafted Zach Ehrhard out of high school in 2021, failed to sign him, and now they're back to swoop in once more. He hit .332 as a freshman but otherwise did not show much impact over his first two years at Oklahoma State, collecting just seventeen extra base hits in 100 games, then exploded for forty in 61 games in 2024. Ehrhard is still a contact hitter first and foremost, and a dang good one. He's extremely patient at the plate and draws a ton of walks, helping him post an excellent .458 on-base percentage in 2024, but on top of that he makes a ton of contact both inside and, on the rare occasions he does chase, outside the zone, so it's really hard to get the ball by him. While he's not huge at 5'11" and his top end exit velocities point to below average raw power, he can get the ball out when he turns on it and his tight right handed swing has gotten better and better at helping him do just that. If he continues to maximize his raw power in games, he could profile for 10-15 home runs per season at best to go with high on-base percentages. The Tampa native is a plus runner with every shot to stick in center field, which would help his bat profile much better given its hit-over-power nature. Ultimately, Ehrhard probably profiles best as a fourth outfielder but the underlying metrics do point to more upside. The Red Sox aggressively pushed him to High A Greenville, where he struggled to hit for impact and slashed .156/.264/.195 with a 25/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games.

5-148: LHP Brandon Clarke, State College of Florida {video}
Slot value: $457,900. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($157,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #177. Baseball America: #289.
Brandon Clarke represents yet another draftee who was a hot commodity in high school. He had Tommy John surgery as a junior and came out of the gates hot once he got healthy as a senior, but couldn't quite maintain that flash in the pan and began a multi-year slide. He didn't pitch as a freshman at Alabama with some nagging injuries, then barely pitched as a sophomore upon transferring to the State College of Florida in Bradenton. Having fallen out of the prospect radar for the most part, he bounced back for a strong season in 2024 and the Red Sox fully believe the real Brandon Clarke is back. He's a long, lanky lefty at 6'4" that has now grown into his body, sitting in the low to mid 90's and reaching the upper 90's with his fastball. His curveball and changeup are less consistent, so at this point, the fastball is the show stealer. Clarke has a ton of arm strength and a deliberate delivery that slows down just a bit right before he plants. He used to violently rip through the rest of delivery shortly after that slowdown, but has gotten more under control in 2024 which brought his walk rate back into reasonable territory. The Northern Virginia native is still very raw on the mound and the Red Sox will have to be patient with his development. He'll need to refine his feel for his secondaries while continuing to make strides with his command, which remains below average despite its improvement. There's heavy relief risk here but that kind of arm talent is especially hard to find from the left side and the Red Sox will take their chances that they can bring the rest of his game along.

7-207: OF Will Turner, South Alabama {video}
Slot value: $274,600. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($24,600 below slot value).
My rank: #180. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #177.
The Red Sox are buying low on Will Turner in hopes that 2024 was an aberration. He jumped straight into South Alabama's starting lineup as a true freshman in 2022 then broke out for a huge sophomore season, pushing himself squarely into the second round conversation with many designating him as a favorite sleeper. Unfortunately, his 2024 turned out to be everything he didn't need. After seeing him whack .349/.460/.591 a year ago, pitchers simply stopped throwing to Turner this year and he walked a whopping 20.9% of the time, but didn't do much damage when he did get pitches to hit. The approach is impeccable, with some of the lowest chase rates in this entire draft class that played both against Sun Belt pitching as well as against elite pitching in the Cape Cod League last summer. Meanwhile, he shows solid average bat to ball ability when he does swing, but he can get overly passive at times and get himself in trouble. His strong eye at the plate also helps him recognize pitches he can turn on, giving him moderate pop to the pull side, but the overall power is below average as he did not grow into the additional power scouts hoped for this spring. It's going to be a walk-driven profile that shows high on-base percentages at minimum, but he'll have to find a way to produce more impact at the plate if he'll want to play every day. Turner's glove will help him, as he's an above average runner and a strong overall defender in center field that has a chance to stick there in pro ball. The Alabama native most likely profiles as a high on-base fourth outfielder that can play all three outfield positions easily. He struggled mightily with an aggressive assignment to High A Greenville, where he hit a paltry .081/.250/.122 in 23 games but continued to show off his patience with fourteen walks.

8-237: SS/RHP Conrad Cason, Greater Atlanta Christian HS [GA] {batting, pitching}
Slot value: $219,900. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($1.03 million above slot value).
My rank: #105. MLB Pipeline: #102. Baseball America: #124.
Aside from second rounder Peyton Tolle, the Red Sox saved a little bit on seven of their first eight picks so they could cash it all in right here on Conrad Cason, an electric two-way player from the Atlanta area. Initially committed to Mississippi State, the Red Sox handed him roughly the slot value for the #66 pick here in the eighth round to come north instead. Cason is not short of talent. For most of his prep career, he has been primarily known as a pitcher. The fastball sits low to mid 90's and touches 99 at peak, coming in with lightning quick arm speed that helps him generate that velocity naturally. He has a power slider that can get a bit firm at times, showing more power than true finish, while his changeup actually looks to be the more advanced secondary pitch with nice fading action at times. It all comes from an uptempo delivery that features some effort, which the Red Sox will look to smooth out in time. Cason is such a tremendous athlete that he should be able to continue to access his velocity regardless. Meanwhile, he has actually shown a strong desire to hit, and the Red Sox will allow him to continue to do that in pro ball. He's raw as a hitter and most scouts preferred him as a pitcher, but an impressive performance at the MLB Draft Combine in June likely sold Boston. His right handed swing is as explosive as they come, leading to big raw power, but he'll have to show he can make consistent contact against higher level pitching to tap it. His plus arm also helps him at shortstop, which combined with his athleticism means he has a shot to stick there long term if he focuses on that craft. Cason is extremely young for the class, having still been 17 on draft day, giving him and the Red Sox lots of time to figure out which direction to develop. He'll do both for now, but once he drops either hitting or pitching, he has a chance to explode as a prospect.

9-267: C Hudson White, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $194,600. Signing bonus: $185,000 ($9,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #318.
Texas Tech was really excited to get Hudson White to campus for his 2022 freshman season, and he jumped right in as the Red Raiders' starting catcher. His bat took a step forward in 2023, then he transferred back east to Arkansas where he had a solid if unspectacular season. He is a very high contact type that has struck out in just 14.7% of his plate appearances over his three year career, having shown a disciplined approach and strong bat to ball ability from a very young age and for a very long time. Solidly built at 6'1", 200 pounds, he has more strength than bat speed and only produces modest exit velocities, with his fringy game power coming more from his ability to square the ball up and lift it. A 25 game run through the Cape Cod League last summer sheds some light on his offensive game as well, as he hit .161/.316/.258 but with a very respectable 16/13 strikeout to walk ratio. The Red Sox will look to deploy White's strong hitting acumen into more impact at the next level. Meanwhile, he's a solid defender behind the plate that should be able to stick there long term, with average ability all-around. That glove makes his bat look a lot better, and if he can continue getting on base while showing just enough thump to keep pitchers honest, he could be a very good backup catcher or potential platoon guy in the long run. His brief stint at High A Greenville was fairly similar to his Cape stint, hitting .167/.324/.167 with a 21/11 strikeout to walk ratio over eighteen games.

10-297: LHP Devin Futrell, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $182,800. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($67,200 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #210.
Devin Futrell, like Hudson White, is a three year college performer that found success immediately as a true freshman. Futrell jumped straight into Vanderbilt's rotation in 2022 and has made 38 starts in three seasons for the Commodores, going 21-7 with a 3.92 ERA and a 180/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 195.1 innings, very nice numbers going up against strong SEC competition in an era of heightened offense. The stuff is largely ordinary. His fastball sits around 90, topping out at 94, and playing up a bit with some riding action. His slider works well when he locates it but ultimately shows fringy bite, while his average changeup plays well off his other pitches with solid fading action but it isn't a strikeout pitch in its own right. Futrell thrives, though, on pitchability. The towering 6'5" lefty shows plus command and can execute any of his pitches to all parts of the zone, helping each of them play to their full potential. He consistently works ahead in counts and creates weak contact by keeping hitters off balance, and has just a 5.3% walk rate for his career – an elite mark. Futrell's size and simple, repeatable delivery make him a very clear starting pitching candidate, but his command will have to hold together completely in order to rise through the minors in that role. Adding a bit of power to his stuff would help as well, with the ceiling of a #5 starter or long reliever.

12-357: RHP Brady Tygart, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($150,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #189. MLB Pipeline: #181. Baseball America: #175.
With some money left over on day three, the Red Sox dipped in a little bit to grab Hudson White's teammate, Brady Tygart, for early seventh round money. Tygart has worked his way up through Arkansas' pitching ranks, beginning as a reliever in 2022 before working in a swingman role in 2023 and joining the rotation full time in 2024. He has a low 90's fastball that touches 95 as a starter and 97 in relief, though it plays pretty true and plays closer to average. He stands out most for his feel for spin, showing a plus curveball with nasty deep bite that misses a ton of bats. His slider flashes plus as well at its best, generating plenty of chases down below the zone, and he shows strong feel to execute them as well. There's a changeup as well, though its firm and looks like a fringy pitch. Tygart doesn't have the world's most athletic delivery, with a tall and fall motion and average extension despite a taller 6'2" frame. His command has been inconsistent in Fayetteville and he may fit better in the bullpen, where he can lean heavily on his breaking balls. We'll see if the Red Sox choose to stretch him out but I like him best in that latter role.

13-387: LHP Shea Sprague, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $155,000 ($5,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
We've seen guys like Matt Barnes (Bethel, CT) and Rich Hill (Milton, MA) suit up for Boston, but ultimately the list of recent New Englanders to play for the Red Sox isn't an extensive one. Shea Sprague will look to be the next. He grew up in Hanover, Massachusetts, about twenty miles south of downtown Boston, and attended Boston College High School next door to UMass Boston on Columbia Point. From there, he headed down south and pitched two years at Elon, where he dominated the CAA and earned an opportunity to transfer down the road to UNC. After a strong season in the Tar Heel rotation, he's now coming back home. Sprague doesn't throw very hard, usually sitting on the south side of 90 with his sinking fastball, but the pitch plays way up because he gets elite extension from a low three quarters slot and slices across the plate. His deep sweeper plays well from that slot, while he effectively deploys his changeup to get something moving arm side and neutralize right handed hitters. He's strong and durable at 6'3" and fills up the strike zone with a ton of strikes, which gives him a chance to start. He'll have to bring his secondaries along and maintain his command to do so because the low velocity does not give him much room for error, or he could slot into the bullpen and hopefully tick that fastball up over 90 more consistently. Regardless, it's a pretty unique profile that the Red Sox can get creative with.

19-567: 3B D'Angelo Ortiz, Miami Dade JC [FL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
If the name sounds familiar, that's because it is. D'Angelo Ortiz is indeed the son of Hall of Famer David Ortiz, and now he's joining the same organization his father was so instrumental in. The younger Ortiz played high school ball at Westminster Christian High School in the Miami area, alma mater of Alex Rodriguez among many others, then spent one year at Miami Dade JC. Ortiz is a very different player than his father, coming in two inches shorter forty pounds lighter, and right handed, and he hit just one home run for the Sharks this year. Instead, he found success by spraying line drives around the park with a high contact approach that helped him hit .377 with just a 9.8% strikeout rate. He has a lot of moving parts in his load with a big leg kick and a bit of a barrel tilt, and also has additional projection remaining as he fills out that 6'1" frame. He was drafted as a third baseman and also has experience in the outfield.

Sunday, September 8, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

Full list of draftees

Oracle Park is one of the tougher places in MLB to put a ball over the fence, but that won't stop this class of Giants from trying. It's a class full of power hitters, many of whom have serious questions about their hit tools but if just a couple break through, San Francisco will have the middle of its future lineup. The Giants were working with limited draft capital as they sacrificed their second and third round picks after signing both Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. That shifted the strategy a bit and I think they did well, still grabbing one of the best bats in the country in James Tibbs in the first round before handing Dakota Jordan second round money in the fourth round. They had to save money from there and didn't give any other player more than $400,000, so the draft was really focused on those two. Still, the Giants draft well and there's plenty to be interested in later on, including a pair of Northern California products.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-13: OF James Tibbs, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $5.27 million. Signing bonus: $4.75 million ($524,800 below slot value).
My rank: #12. MLB Pipeline: #12. Baseball America: #14.
Much was made about this draft's "top ten" names, and there was some truth to that being a separate talent tier from the rest of the class. James Tibbs, however, had a very good case for "best of the rest" with some teams believing he belonged in that top tier, and for good reason. He has hit over .300 with double digit home run totals in all three years at Florida State, finishing with an otherworldly 2024 in which he was named a first team All-American by numerous outlets, including D1Baseball and Baseball America. Tibbs is both a power and a contact hitter, with plus raw power that he taps consistently in games, including 28 home runs that finished tied for seventh in Division I last spring. It plays easily to all fields from a simple left handed swing and plenty of strength that makes the ball jump off his bat. He's come a long way since striking out in 31.7% of his plate appearances as a freshman in 2022, slashing that number to 20.1% in 2023 and all the way to 11.6% in 2024. The primary driver has been improvement against offspeed stuff, as he now makes plenty of contact against all pitch types and has become a much more disciplined hitter in the process. Together that projects for 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, which could hit right in the middle of San Francisco's lineup. He's certainly a bat-first prospect, as he's a below average runner with an average arm that could make him adequate in a corner outfield spot. It's nothing special defensively, but he won't be a liability and the Giants are buying that big bat which will profile at any position. The Atlanta-area native has a chance to be an impact hitter for a long time in San Francisco. Tibbs raked at Low A San Jose (.415/.429/.512 in nine games) but has since hit a bit of a wall since his promotion to High A Eugene, where he is slashing .134/.216/.239 in seventeen games.

4-116: OF Dakota Jordan, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $624,800. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.38 million above slot value).
My rank: #40. MLB Pipeline: #34. Baseball America: #35.
Lacking a second or third round pick, the Giants went way over slot to give Dakota Jordan early second round money anyways (roughly the slot value for the #47 pick) here in the fourth round. Jordan is an absolutely tremendous talent with massive upside that he'll need to work hard to achieve. A well-known prospect out of the Jackson area, where he played high school ball alongside 2024 Pirates first rounder Konnor Griffin, he turned down day two offers to attend Mississippi State. Initially considered extremely raw, he hit the ground running in Starkville and turned in one of the best freshman seasons in the SEC in 2023 to elevate his stock. Teams were hoping for a full on breakout in 2024, and while he doubled his home run total and bumped up his batting average by nearly fifty points, his peripherals remained the same and he wound up closer to a second round prospect than a first rounder. The tools, though, are top of the scale. Jordan has ferocious hands that rip the bat through the zone at thunderous speed, creating plus-plus raw power that generates some of the highest peak exit velocities of any hitter in this draft class. The power comes effortlessly and the ball explodes off his bat to all fields, even if he doesn't square it up. That's important, because he's very raw as a hitter. While James Tibbs has dramatically cut his strikeout rate at school, Jordan has not, with a 25.0% rate as a freshman increasing to 29.0% as a sophomore. His quick hands give him no trouble against velocity, but he can be completely undone by good breaking balls which led to elevated chase rates and a ton of swing and miss. Pro pitchers are going to attack him with a plethora of offspeed stuff and it will be better located than what he saw in college (though he did face very strong pitching in the SEC), so it will be imperative for Jordan to clean up that part of his game and do it quickly because despite being a true sophomore, he did turn 21 back in May. If he can become even a fringy hitter against breaking balls, the sky is the limit for his bat. Jordan is also a plus runner with a powder keg 6' frame, showing one of the best strength/speed combinations in the draft. That said, his overall outfield defense is a bit raw and he may not be a center fielder long term, likely slotting into a corner outfield spot where he could be above average given his speed. So far, he's hitless in seven at bats with a pair of strikeouts for Low A San Jose.

5-149: OF Jakob Christian, San Diego {video}
Slot value: $453,300. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($55,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #216. Baseball America: #457.
Jakob Christian continues the power theme in a big way. He spent two years at Point Loma Nazarene, then transferred to San Diego for his junior season and finished with 26 home runs, two behind first rounder James Tibbs. It's plus power that he can access very consistently in games, and he has no issues pummeling fastballs. Similar to Dakota Jordan, he does struggle with breaking balls and will have to clean that up as he continues to face better and better pitching. While that didn't hurt him in school and he in fact won the West Coast Conference Player of the Year award this year, he did slash just .179/.347/.308 with a 30.6% strikeout rate in a smaller 19 game Cape Cod League sample. The San Diego native measures in at 6'5" and has long levers and a noisy load that can impact his barrel accuracy, so his overall offensive game may need more refinement than the typical college draftee. The power though brings big upside if he can access it just enough. Christian is also a below average runner who will have to work to stay in a corner outfield spot, and there's a decent chance he ends up at first base in the long run. That will place additional pressure on his bat, with the likely projection being a platoon bat that plays against lefties and provides some pop. The Giants see the size and power and think they can refine it into more as they simplify his mechanics and let his natural strength do the work. It looks to be going nicely so far, as he's slashing .267.378/.500 with one home run and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio through nine games at Low A San Jose.

6-178: 3B Robert Hipwell, Santa Clara {video}
Slot value: $348,200. Signing bonus: $345,700 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #198. MLB Pipeline: #139. Baseball America: #157.
The Giants went to their own backyard for this one. Robert Hipwell hails from Santa Cruz and graduated from Scotts Valley High School just north into the mountains. He spent the past three seasons at Santa Clara, where he has had a bit of an up and down career. After not playing much as a freshman, Hipwell broke out for a big sophomore season to put his name squarely on draft radars. He missed the first half of the season with a suspension then returned for a solid second half. He has a bit of an interesting profile. The approach is excellent, with strong pitch recognition and an absolute refusal to chase anything out of the zone helping him find exactly the pitch he wants to hit with regularity. That's important because the pure bat to ball is below average and he can get in trouble in deep counts and against pitchers who can execute in the zone. Meanwhile, Hipwell's raw power is fringy but he does a very good job of elevating and turning on the ball to maximize that power, leading to more home runs than you'd expect given modest exit velocities. Between the swing path and pitch recognition, he should be able to continue to tap that power with wood bats. Hipwell has improved his body at Santa Clara and now has a shot to stick at third base with increased athleticism and good arm strength. He'll have to maintain his conditioning and continue to work on his glovework, otherwise he could be forced to move across to first base. That will put more pressure on his power production, which is already a question going forward. The Giants see a potential every day third baseman who will feel perfectly comfortable working major league at bats and who can cover up holes in his swing by getting ahead in counts and ensuring he'll never miss his pitch when he gets it. He could also unlock more power as he gets farther from his suspension and learns to better leverage his big 6'3" frame. He's continuing to elevate the ball with authority at Low A San Jose, where he's slashing .196/.360/.402 but has already homered five times with a 40/21 strikeout to walk ratio through 29 games.

7-208: LHP Greg Farone, Alabama {video}
Slot value: $272,200. Signing bonus: $204,150 ($68,050 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #236.
Greg Farone has been around the block. He began his career at Herkimer JC in Upstate New York, where he went 13-0 with a 1.83 ERA and a 213/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings in his two years. JuCo hitters were thrilled to be rid of him when he transferred to Louisville, where he served as a swingman for the Cardinals. Pushing further south, he transferred again to Alabama in 2024 and performed admirably, holding down a weekend rotation spot all year long. Farone is a classic pitchability lefty who won't wow you with big stuff. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95 with some riding action from a higher slot, missing more bats than you'd expect with its average velocity. His slider gets nice depth and looks like an average pitch at best, while his changeup gives him a third option to neutralize righties. The 6'6" lefty comes from an extremely free and easy delivery that will serve him well as he's asked to take on bigger workloads in pro ball. He also fills the strike zone with above average command looks the part of a classic starting pitcher. The Giants will look to bring the secondary stuff along and perhaps add a tick or two to the fastball, which he's plenty strong enough to do, and work him up as a back-end starter. A senior sign, Farone is fairly young for a college senior and only turned 22 in May.

12-358: SS Zander Darby, UC Santa Barbara {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #176. MLB Pipeline: #151. Baseball America: #248.
Make it two NorCal natives for the Giants. Zander Darby hails from Palo Alto and attended powerhouse Palo Alto High School, which has also produced current top prospects like Josh Kasevich (Blue Jays), Henry Bolte (A's), and Charlie Bates (Stanford) in addition to MLB outfielder Joc Pederson in recent years. He spent the past three seasons down south at UC Santa Barbara, and there were points early this spring where a hot start had him knocking on the door of day one draft discussions. Although he couldn't sustain that success and finished with a pedestrian .275/.347/.420 slash line in a year where offense was high, he's still a very interesting get here on day three. Darby has a big league body at 6'3" with some projection remaining, giving him the chance to grow into an impact hitter. Employing a simple operation from the left side, he uses the whole field with a pretty effortless swing that's more geared towards line drives than turning on the ball for power. He rarely chases, but pitchers attacked him in 2024 and found some holes in the zone with his swing, leading to a slightly elevated strikeout rate (up to 17.9% in 2024 from 15.6% in 2023) and a lower walk rate (down to 9.9% from 11.7%) despite that low chase rate. Darby also has fringy power, but given his size, he could grow into average or better pop if he started to focus on that more. He did show well on the Cape, where he slashed .271/.387/.395 and controlled the strike zone very effectively against high level pitching. It's a pretty average offensive profile across the board, but that means he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses either and a step forward in any aspect could make him a very interesting bat for the Giants. Drafted as a shortstop, he probably fits better at second or third base with average speed and a solid arm. He does move well for his size but may slow down in the long run. So far, he's hitting .234/.351/.489 with four home runs and a 17/9 strikeout to walk ratio through thirteen games for Low A San Jose.

14-418: 1B Jeremiah Jenkins, Maine {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #199. Baseball America: #288.
And here is even more power for the Giants. Jeremiah Jenkins has been unstoppable for Maine over the past two seasons, where he has slashed .353/.473/.759 with 43 home runs in just 102 games, and he now joins former Maine teammate Quinn McDaniel in the Giants' system. Jenkins, like many players in this Giants draft class, has tremendous raw power, with top end exit velocities that can compete with any hitter in college baseball. He stands 6'4" and has gotten considerably stronger in Orono, with a simple left handed swing that naturally lofts the ball to the pull side. He ran pretty decent contact and chase rates in 2024 and walked (15.6%) more than he struck out (15.1%), but he also faced a particularly weak schedule while at Maine and will be tested with the jump from the CAA to pro ball. The bat will have to play because he is a below average runner who will be confined to first base going forward, where he may have to compete with Jakob Christian and Robert Hipwell just from San Francisco's early picks this year. Jenkins hits the ball harder than either of those two, and harder than almost any player in the Giants' system except perhaps Dakota Jordan and Bryce Eldridge. He's still hitting the ball hard at Low A San Jose, where he's slashing .295/.367/.545 with two home runs and a 16/4 strikeout to walk ratio through eleven games.

Saturday, September 7, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

Full list of draftees

The Cubs followed one primary theme here, and that was chasing power. Their first three picks all have the potential for plus or better power, as do many of their later picks. That's a bit of a break from recent years, where they have focused heavily on pitching, but looking back to their World Series team nearly a decade ago, it was built on drafting hitters like Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, among others. Beyond that, they interestingly went on a Southern California mid-major binge, grabbing four in a six pick stretch from the University of San Diego, UC Santa Barbara (x2), and UC San Diego. 
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-14: 3B Cam Smith, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $5.07 million. Signing bonus: $5.07 million.
My rank: #13. MLB Pipeline: #14. Baseball America: #16.
The Cubs started things off with a bang, pulling in one of the top hitting prospects in all of amateur baseball in Cam Smith. Smith was a well-known prep in South Florida and had day two draft interest in 2022, but he made it to campus at Florida State and immediately jumped into the starting lineup as a freshman. While his freshman numbers were more good than great, he significantly elevated his profile by hitting .341/.396/.557 with six home runs in 49 games in the Cape Cod League that summer. Scouts were interested to see if he could apply that progress back to the ACC, and boy did he ever with a massive sophomore season that led to a first round draft selection. Smith has a true big league body at a listed 6'3", 225 pounds, and he looks every bit of it. He uses that natural strength to get extended and drive the ball to all parts of the park, notably applying an opposite field approach that helps him wear out the right center field gap. That approach almost conceals his power a bit, which is impressive considering he still hit sixteen home runs. Smith's raw exit velocities are among the best in the class, giving him plus-plus power when he turns on the ball. Unlike most power bats, he makes plenty of contact as well, and he was the only college hitter on the Baseball America 500 (out of 145) to run a 90th percentile exit velocity above 111 MPH while also running a contact rate above 81%. Smith can do damage against all pitch types, and he's really cleaned up his approach since looking overwhelmed as a freshman last year – his strikeout rate dropped from 28.7% to 14.9% while his walk rate jumped from 9.1% to 13.7%. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs let him continue to develop as a doubles machine smacking balls to the back side or if they look to get him to turn on the ball more often to unlock potential 30+ home run power. Smith also moves well at third base despite his size and fringy speed, with a plus arm and natural feel for the position making a potential average or better defender at the hot corner. That adds to the profile further and he has a shot to become one of the better third basemen in all of baseball. He's off to a hot start and has already been promoted, slashing .326/.418/.641 with seven home runs and a 21/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 26 games at Low A Myrtle Beach and High A South Bend.

2-54: 3B Cole Mathis, College of Charleston {video}
Slot value: $1.68 million. Signing bonus: $1.68 million.
My rank: #70. MLB Pipeline: #84. Baseball America: #61.
Cole Mathis is a really fun one with excellent metrics under the hood. He's actually a decorated pitcher who had some pro interest for his arm, which helped him put up a 3.60 ERA in 100 innings at the College of Charleston from 2022-2023. A big sophomore season at the plate but his bat on the map, then he tore through the Cape Cod League by slashing .326/.391/.660 with eleven home runs in 37 games (while running a 23/5 strikeout to walk ratio as a pitcher). Entering 2024 a late day two prospect, he started dreadfully slowly and was hitting just .184 with one home run through his first 21 games. Then a switch flipped and he hit .427/.541/.831 with thirteen home runs in his final 31 games the rest of the way, prompting the Cubs to hit the button perhaps a bit earlier than some expected. As you might expect, it's big raw power. Mathis is a built rock solid at a listed 6'1", 210 pounds, with plenty of strength to produce plus raw power that he had no problem tapping with wood bats against elite competition on the Cape. Meanwhile, the hit tool might be even better than the power, as the West Georgia native is exceptionally patient at the plate and rarely ever expands the zone. He makes plenty of contact within it, too, helping him keep strikeouts to a minimum and ensuring he's always on base – his career OBP at the College of Charleston stands at a gaudy .451. If there's one qualm about his offensive game, it's that he's more strong than athletic, so he could be tested once pro pitchers start to speed up his bat a bit more, but he did hit .326 on the Cape. If it clicks, Mathis has a chance for 25-30 home runs per year with high on-base percentages, which would put him right in the middle of the Cubs lineup long term. The Cubs drafted him as a third baseman, but he's most likely a first baseman long term with heavy feet and stiffer actions, though he does have a plus arm. That arm helped him run his fastball up to 96 as a reliever and he made ten starts for the Cougars in 2023, and he could fall back on pitching if hitting doesn't work out. The fastball can get a bit straight, while his hammer curveball gives him a quality offspeed offering and he pounds the strike zone with average command. Mathis is young for the class, having still been 20 on draft day.

3-90: SS Ronny Cruz, Miami Christian HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $826,000. Signing bonus: $620,000 ($206,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #386.
Continuing the power theme, the Cubs picked up one of the better power bats remaining the prep class here in the third round and did so giving him fourth round money to sign away from a Miami commitment. Ronny Cruz is very projectable with a long, lean 6'2" frame, and this spring he has done a much better job of leveraging that frame to blast balls long distances. He gets the bat long through the zone with great extension, and he looked at his best during the MLB Draft Combine in June. Meanwhile, Cruz is raw as a hitter. He's susceptible to selling out for power, causing him to swing through hittable pitches, but that's getting better. The Cubs are buying into the power and believe the positive trajectory he's shown lately will help him hit enough to tap that power in pro ball. Meanwhile, he was drafted as a shortstop but may ultimately grow off the position. Second or third base could be his future, but so long as he makes reasonable strides in his glovework, he should be solid at either. Finding that kind of power that can stick on the dirt is not easy, and the Dominican-born Cruz is very young for the class having turned 18 more than a month after the draft. That gives him further time to fill out his frame and clean up his actions on both sides of the ball. It's a real sleeper for Chicago here.

4-120: SS Ty Southisene, Basic HS [NV] {video}
Slot value: $600,800. Signing bonus: $1 million ($399,200 above slot value).
My rank: #130. MLB Pipeline: #111. Baseball America: #191.
Ty Southisene breaks the power hitter pattern here, but he's a big time get that signed for roughly the slot value of the #78 pick rather than attend Tennessee. It's a really, really complete profile, with only one drawback – size. I've seen Southisene variously listed between 5'7" and 5'9", but no matter how you slice it, he's smaller than most of his competition. He uses a quick right handed swing to shoot line drives around the park with authority, and his quick hands and twitchy strength make the ball jump off his bat with more juice than you'd expect. There's a bit of a barrel tip in his load, but those quick hands help negate that as well. Additionally, he's an above average runner with excellent body control that gives him an outside shot to play shortstop, though his arm strength may push him to second base. Southisene's quickness and athleticism give him a chance to be at least above average if not plus at second. All together, we're talking about a potential high average type that can knock 10-15 home runs per season while playing strong defense on the dirt, really nice upside to find for third round money. If he were a few inches taller, we could be talking about a top fifty pick, and the Las Vegas native is out to prove that size does not matter.

5-153: C Ariel Armas, San Diego {video}
Slot value: $435,600. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($60,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Cubs have struggled to develop catching since Willson Contreras came up, with Miguel Amaya representing the only semi-success the organization has had behind the plate. They'll try again with Ariel Armas, though his ceiling is limited and he may project better as a backup catcher. Armas played three years at San Diego, alma mater of Kris Bryant, where he didn't hit much over his first two seasons but broke out for a nice offensive season in 2024. He still won't blow you away with his bat, but it now projects to be enough for a catcher. There's average pop in the bat even if he doesn't tap it so much in games, at least enough to keep pitchers honest. He's also a smart hitter in the box with a low chase rate that walked (11.2%) nearly as much as he struck out (13.7%). It's a fairly well-rounded offensive profile that won't be overwhelmed by pro pitching in any way. The carrying tool here, though, is his defense. He was the WCC Defensive Player of the Year in 2024, showing polished defense behind the plate that will help him not only remain at catcher long term but provide significant value there. That takes about as much pressure off his bat as you can hope for, so he'll only have to hit a little to ascend through the ranks. Just how much impact he can find in his right handed swing will determine his ultimate ceiling, but it's never a bad thing to have a glove like this in your system. Aggressively assigned to High A South Bend to start things out, he's hitting .204/.316/.286 with a 10/7 strikeout to walk ratio through thirteen games.

7-212: OF Ivan Brethowr, UC Santa Barbara {video}
Slot value: $263,300. Signing bonus: $245,000 ($18,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #194. Baseball America: #472.
After taking a couple rounds off, the Cubs went back to the power well in a big way. Ivan Brethowr began his career at Arizona State, but didn't play much as a freshman and transferred to UC Santa Barbara, where he has been one of the Gauchos' best hitters. Brethowr immediately stands out on the field at a listed 6'6", 250 pounds, making him the biggest player in a Cubs' draft class full of large humans. Unsurprisingly, he has plus power to the pull side and loves to turn on the ball for impressive home runs. He's plenty strong enough to put the ball out the other way, too, but at this point he doesn't have the barrel feel to consistently tap that opposite field power and most of his batted balls the opposite way are mishits. The pull-heavy approach combined with the longer levers that lead to lower barrel accuracy give him a below average hit tool, so the Cubs will have to revamp his approach a bit in pro ball to tap his power more consistently. The upside, though, is tremendous if they can get it right. On the defensive side of the ball, the Kansas City-area native has average speed and a strong arm to make right field a viable option, though he may slow down as he ages. He's earned comps to fellow California mid-major product Aaron Judge, and while that would of course that outcome would require a lot to go right (and he's less disciplined as a hitter at this stage), they do have similar profiles with their size, power, and handedness. It's been a steep transition to pro ball so far, where he is slashing .165/.267/.253 with two home runs and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio through 22 games at Low A Myrtle Beach.

11-332: OF Eli Lovich, Blue Valley West HS [KS] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $650,000 ($500,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #474.
With their first pick of day three, the Cubs spent an extra half million against their bonus pool to sign Eli Lovich away from an Arkansas commitment, good for fourth round money. Lovich is a pure projection play, one who the Cubs believe would have exploded at Arkansas and come out the other end a much higher pick. As such, they're investing much more money than you might expect given his rankings on various draft boards. He's long and lean at 6'4", 185 pounds, with room to add 40-50 pounds of strength. For now, he's mostly a line drive hitter who uses the whole field effectively with a level, loose swing that will be conducive to adding power. That power is fringy right now, but he's almost certain to get much, much stronger in Chicago and he could get to above average power easily. A decent runner, he likely fits as a right fielder long term but the Cubs would love it if he could make it work in center field. Lovich has a strong arm and was actually ranked on Baseball America's board as a pitcher, not a hitter, so giving up the mound could also help the Kansas City-area native bring it together. He has a long way to go, but the upside here is tremendous and he really resembles exactly the kind of hitter that goes to school and comes back a first or second rounder three years later. The Cubs see that and will see him through to that ceiling in their system.

12-362: RHP Daniel Avitia, Grand Canyon {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #195. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #250.
I thought top-five round projections for Daniel Avitia were a little rich earlier this spring, but now that the Cubs managed to get their hands on him here in the twelfth round, he becomes a very interesting prospect for $150,000. Avitia was a central piece of the Grand Canyon rotation as a freshman and as a sophomore, but missed time with injuries in 2024 and didn't take the step forward scouts were looking for. The Cubs like power arms, but Avitia is more of a soft tosser. The fastball hovers around 90, topping out around 94 and coming in with running and sinking action. His slider and changeup are both solid average pitches, nothing special but they get the job done. Where Avitia shines is command and execution. He can spot all three pitches where he needs them, helping them play up and keeping him ahead in counts. The Phoenix native gets his whiffs by executing those pitches where he needs them rather than forcing them to chase bad pitches out of the zone, so it remains to be seen how well that will play against pro pitchers who can pick him up a little better. Avitia also comes from a low three quarters slot that creates an ultra low release point, which will allow the Cubs to get creative with his pitch usage as he keeps hitters off balance. Clocking in at 6'4", he has some projection remaining and if he can tack 2-3 MPH on his fastball while maintaining his plus command, he suddenly becomes a legitimate MLB starting pitching candidate. His older brother David is actually already in the Cubs' system, where he's a light hitting catcher currently in High A.

13-392: RHP Evan Aschenbeck, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Here the Cubs bring in one of the top relievers in the country, and in fact Evan Aschenbeck was named Stopper of the Year this past spring. He spent two years at Blinn JC in Texas, then spent the last two at Texas A&M where he put up that massive senior season in 2024. While he's a very different pitcher, the profile is fairly similar to Daniel Avitia on the surface. His fastball hovers around 90, topping out around 93 although his is a riding fastball from a moderately high slot while Avitia's is a running fastball from a very low slot. Also like Avitia, Aschenbeck has an average slider and changeup to round out his arsenal. He shows plus command and execution, again like Avitia, with the ability to mix pitches effectively and throw them all with conviction in any count to any spot. He's a very high baseball IQ type who thrived in high pressure situations in the SEC. Unlike Avitia, who is two years his junior, he lacks projection and is unlikely to throw much harder. That caps the 23 year old's ceiling a little bit, and he's unlikely to be much more than a middle reliever at best for the Cubs. That said, he could move through the minors very quickly with his command and durability.

20-602: RHP Brayden Risedorph, Indiana {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
It took until the final round, but the Cubs finally picked up a Midwesterner to come pitch in their system. Brayden Risedorph is from the small town of Kendallville, Indiana, which sits about 25 miles north of Fort Wayne near the northeastern corner of the Hoosier State. He spent two years at Indiana, where he served as a swingman but struggled to an 8.31 ERA in 2024. Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are targeting the stuff here, not the performance. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 99 in short stints, though it plays a bit straight out of his hand with some running action so it doesn't miss many bats. There's a solid sweeper with the chance to be above average, while his splitter is inconsistent but shows nasty, late drop at its best. Risedorph shows fringy command that may limit him to the bullpen long term, but the arm strength, physicality, and stuff all point to more ceiling than you'd expect. The Cubs will have to get creative with his pitch mix and perhaps tweak the fastball to keep hitters off it if he wants to come anywhere close to that ceiling, but as a draft-eligible sophomore he was still 20 on draft day and has a shot to put things together.