Friday, September 6, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Seattle Mariners

Full list of draftees

The Mariners stayed true to their tendencies with this draft class. They started things off with an ultra athletic college pitcher, moved on to blowing most of their remaining bonus pool on a first round-caliber high school pitcher in the second round, then spent the rest of the draft targeting 23 and 24 year olds to save money while also finding spots here and there for some big power bats. By starting early, the Mariners found some of the best senior signs in the country, and overall I really like the class they pulled together.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-15: BHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $4.88 million. Signing bonus: $4.88 million.
My rank: #18. MLB Pipeline: #25. Baseball America: #24.
The Mariners made a splash in the first round by picking up the famous switch pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, and he's the perfect fit. Cijntje (pronounced saint-jeh) first rose to fame as a switch pitching, switch hitting, two-way high school senior at Champagnat Catholic in South Florida, where he earned serious day two interest on account of his pitching. Instead, he made it to campus at Mississippi State where he struggled to a tough-luck 8.10 ERA as a freshman in 2023. A draft-eligible sophomore in 2024 due to turning 21 in May, he slowly pushed his way back into the top five rounds, then the top three, top two, and eventually to the middle of the first round as he seemed to get stronger and stronger with every start. While he switch pitched for the Bulldogs, most see Cijntje as a right handed pitcher only going forward. From that side, he sits in the low to mid 90's and approaches triple digits at peak with his fastball, putting big riding action on the pitch despite a lower release point. As he's progressed in Starkville, it's turned into a true plus pitch. He also shows a tight, hard slider with late bite, giving him a second above average pitch. The changeup at this point is inconsistent and a bit too firm, but it's shown flashes and isn't completely rudimentary. Meanwhile, his stuff is a bit more muted from the left side, with a fastball sitting around 90 with more run and sink unlike his riding right handed fastball. The slider is a bit sweepier, showing less power but more depth. From the right side, it looks like a legitimate #3 starting pitcher profile, while from the left he's more of a two-pitch guy who would work better in the bullpen where the stuff could add a tick. Unsurprisingly, Cijntje is a superb athlete that has gotten more and more refined in repeating his delivery, working his way up to average command with the chance to continue improving in that regard in pro ball, especially if he gives up pitching left handed. This arm fits extremely well in the Mariners' system as the same type of low launch, high ride guy they've had success with in the past. You won't find this combination of polish, athleticism, and trajectory often. Next up will be refining his changeup and continuing to take incremental steps forward everywhere else.

2-55: RHP Ryan Sloan, York Community HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: $1.64 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($1.36 million above slot value).
My rank: #27. MLB Pipeline: #19. Baseball America: #26.
After picking up Jurrangelo Cijntje, the Mariners sank a massive over slot bonus into Ryan Sloan, spending roughly the slot value of the #30 pick here at #55 to buy him out of a Wake Forest commitment. While Sloan was considered one of the top prep arms in the class, guys like William Schmidt (now at LSU) and Cam Caminiti (Braves) were able to jump out first this past spring as the seasons started in Louisiana and Arizona, respectively. However, once Chicago started to thaw, Sloan proved to be every bit as good as his warm weather counterparts and shot back into the first round conversation. While the Mariners typically target athletic pitchers, Sloan gives them more of a size and strength guy. His fastball ticked up this spring, sitting in the mid 90's and touching 99 with flat plane, a potential plus-plus pitch. His slider flashes plus with late sweep, while his changeup looks very promising with late tumble, both looking especially deadly when he can locate them. The 6'5" righty has a big league body already with a big, durable frame, and while he's not the most athletic pitcher in the class, he gets down the mound well for a big guy and comes with tremendous upside. He has average command, which is very impressive for a pitcher with his caliber of stuff. Sloan could be an ace.

3-91: RHP Hunter Cranton, Kansas {video}
Slot value: $812,900. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($762,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #213. Baseball America: unranked.
After giving Ryan Sloan that massive bonus in the second round, the Mariners had to start saving money quick and did so by giving Hunter Cranton the second smallest bonus of any player selected in the top four rounds. He's extremely well travelled, having played high school ball at JSerra Catholic High School in Orange County, California alongside names like Royce Lewis, Gage Jump, and Cody Schrier. Cranton began his career at Saddleback JC just down the street from his high school, then after two seasons transferred to San Diego State but barely pitched at the latter. He's spent the past two seasons at Kansas, where he has found his groove in the bullpen and figures to stay there going forward with Seattle. Cranton's fastball is borderline elite, sitting in the mid to upper 90's and touching triple digits with riding and running action from a low release point. It earned chases and whiffs over a third of the time, elite marks for a fastball, and projects as a plus-plus pitch in pro ball. He also rips off a hard, tight sweeper that flashes plus in its own right, giving him one of the nastier one-two punches out there. On top of it all, Cranton pounds the zone and, at least at the college level, was able to consistently stay ahead of hitters. The Mariners absolutely love these types of arms and have a great track record with them, so this pairing could not be more perfect. On the downside, the 6'3" righty turns 24 early in the offseason. He's also a pure reliever that throws with considerable effort, a demographic that does not have a strong track record coming from the college level. The Mariners will look to buck that trend and get his reasonably-commanded fastball/slider combination to the big leagues quickly. So far, he has allowed four runs (three earned) over 7.1 innings for Low A Modesto, striking out thirteen along the way.

4-121: C Josh Caron, Nebraska {video}
Slot value: $594,000. Signing bonus: $594,900 ($900 below slot value).
My rank: #131. MLB Pipeline: #172. Baseball America: #300.
If you liked Mike Zunino and Cal Raleigh, you're going to love Josh Caron, the next power hitting catcher in line for Seattle. He was more good than great for most of his career at Nebraska, but came on late hitting six home runs in the 2024 Big Ten Tournament to launch himself into day two draft conversations. The power here is the calling card. The ball really explodes off his bat like few in this class, with plus power in games and some elite exit velocities when he really gets a hold of one. Meanwhile, the hit tool is fringier as he can swing through quality stuff in the zone and has a tendency to chase offspeed pitches. If he's going to tap his power consistently against pro pitching, he'll need to shore up the approach a little bit. He's very physical with a sturdy 6' frame, with good feel for his body to stick behind the plate long term. The actions themselves are a bit raw, but he should be able to iron it out and become a power hitting, bat-first catcher. He also didn't turn 21 until after the draft, making him very young for a college junior and giving him extra time to refine his game on both sides of the ball. Doing so could earn him every day playing time in Seattle. Caron has taken just fine to pro pitching so far, slashing .300/.378/.400 with one home run and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio through eleven games at Low A Modesto.

5-154: RHP Charlie Beilenson, Duke {video}
Slot value: $431,400. Signing bonus: $25,000 ($406,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Still needing to save money from the Ryan Sloan pick, the Mariners picked up another senior sign reliever in Charlie Beilenson. He spent four years at Brown, but threw just 40 innings over those four years after losing 2020 to COVID and 2021 to the Ivy League voluntarily cancelling the season. Transferring to Duke for the 2023 season, he finally had his big breakout in 2024 when he was one of the best relievers in the country. As you might expect, he's extremely advanced and has a chance to move quickly through the minors. His low 90's fastball touches 95, but he leans heavily on his splitter to generate a ton of swing and miss. He also shows a tight slider and can split the difference with his fastball by utilizing a cutter, giving him a full array of weapons to mix and match against hitters. Beilenson's above average command is a separator as a reliever, while he sequences his stuff well and isn't afraid to go right after hitters. This complete profile didn't materialize overnight, though, and he'll turn 25 in the offseason. That makes him the oldest player in the entire draft and the only one born before the turn of the millennium. So far he has allowed one run over 3.2 innings at Low A Modesto, striking out four but walking five in the process.

6-183: RHP/C Grant Knipp, Campbell {video}
Slot value: $334,200. Signing bonus: $275,000 ($59,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #412.
If Josh Caron doesn't become the next Mike Zunino, Grant Knipp could give it a shot. He spent his freshman year at Alabama but did not see the field, so he transferred to Campbell and got better and better each season, culminating in a massive 2024 where he hit .402/.547/1.029 (not a typo) with 18 home runs in 29 game despite missing a month with a hamstring injury. He clocks in at a burly 6'2", 230 pounds an produces massive raw power from a quick right handed swing, absolutely pummeling baseballs with the best of them – you don't slug over 1.000 by accident and the exit velocity data backs that up. Pitchers simply refused to throw to him in 2024 if they were smart, and he didn't help himself by chasing at a fairly high clip. He still walked a very impressive 19.4% of the time, but he also swung through far too many pitches both inside and outside the zone. It's only going to get tougher against pro pitching, so Knipp will really have to shore up his approach and find pitches he can ambush to continue tapping that huge power. Sticking behind the plate will help the profile, but he's bulky behind the plate and will have to work hard to catch long term. If he moves to first base, he'll really have to get to that power in games consistently. Meanwhile, the Louisville native is also an extremely talented pitcher who could absolutely pitch in pro ball. He runs his fastball up to 98 and shows a semblance of command despite barely pitching at Campbell. He'll have to bring along his slider and hold that command together, but the arm talent is certainly there to pitch in a major league bullpen.

10-303: OF Anthony Donofrio, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: $181,100. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($131,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #449.
This is sneakily one of the better value picks of the draft. Like many players in this Mariners class, he's been around a long time, having begun his college career with Division III SUNY Cortland way back in 2019, where he didn't play much in his two seasons. He transferred to Stony Brook as a student but failed to make the baseball team, so he transferred again to Quinnipiac in 2022 and caught fire, hitting .355/.415/.623 with 23 home runs in two seasons. That caught UNC's attention, which he made his fourth home and slotted directly into the everyday lineup for a big season. Donofrio grades out well metrically, with above average raw power that played more to the gaps in games as he looked to knock the ball around the field. The approach is controlled aggression, as he'll chase out of the zone but makes adjustments and works counts well regardless, leading to an even strikeout to walk ratio that becomes all the more impressive when you consider the jump in competition he faced. Adding to the profile is his glove, as he's a plus runner who will be able to handle center field at the next level. Given that the bat might have some tweener indicators, that could serve as a big factor for him earning playing time at the major league level. Donofrio, a sixth year senior, is very old having turned 24 before the draft, but he's plenty advanced and has fought hard to be where he is. In just a few short years, the Long Island native rocketed from riding the bench at a D-III school, then getting cut from Stony Brook, to playing professional baseball in the Mariners' organization. So far he is slashing .241/.362/.362 with a 13/11 strikeout to walk ratio though eighteen games at Low A Modesto.

11-333: RHP Christian Little, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #328.
At barely 21 on draft day, Christian Little has to be one of the youngest senior signs in the history of the draft. Despite having pitched four years in college and exhausted his eligibility, he's younger than Mariners first round pick and true sophomore Jurrangelo Cijntje. Little has taken a winding road to get where he is. Back in 2021 he was arguably the top high school pitching prospect in the entire country, but reclassified before his senior season to enroll at Vanderbilt early. Pitching as just a 17 year old freshman, he immediately became the Commodores' midweek starter and showed well for his age. He continued to show well as a sophomore in 2022, but amid a crowded Vanderbilt rotation picture he transferred to LSU for his junior season. However, he did not progress in his two years in Baton Rouge and now finds himself with the Mariners in the eleventh round. Despite his name, Little is a big guy with big stuff. The fastball can sit mid 90's and touch 98-99 at peak, and while it can get straight, he's added a cutter at LSU to give hitters a different look. He throws a hard slider that flashes above average at best, but it can blend into his fringier curveball, while his changeup grades out as fringy. The 6'4" righty has tacked on about ten pounds a year at school and now clocks in at 235 pounds, leading to a bit of stiffness in his delivery. While he was a solid strike thrower in high school, he has never found the zone consistently in college with a career 12.7% walk rate that never dipped into single digits in any season. The Mariners may look to completely overhaul his delivery and pitch mix to help him reach his former ceiling. The arm strength and talent is still tremendous, and given that he only turned 21 shortly before the draft, he's younger than most college draftees. The change of scenery from Nashville to Baton Rouge did not help, and while both are premier pitching development destinations in college baseball, the Mariners have one of the best pro pitching development systems out there as well. He profiles as a reliever on the surface due to his lack of command and the effort in his delivery, but his size, strength, and the depth of his arsenal could lead the Mariners to bank on his youth and see if they can't figure something out as a starter.

13-393: 3B Brandon Eike, Virginia Commonwealth {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Brandon Eike gives the Mariners a big bat late in the draft. He spent two years at UNC, but barely saw the field with just eleven total at bats and transferred closer to home at VCU. There, the Rams have made much better use of his bat and he hit .363/.435/.637 with 25 home runs in 116 games over two seasons. He capped it off in a big way, absolutely losing his mind in the 2024 A-10 Tournament where he went 12-19 with five home runs in four games as VCU swept its way to a conference championship. Two games later, he had a five hit game against Evansville in the Greenville regional. He's not the tallest guy in the world, but he's very physical regardless with long arms and a leveraged 6' frame. That helps him consistently tap above average power in games without selling out. Eike hasn't faced the toughest pitching in the A-10 but showed well on the Cape last year, where he hit .309/.369/.455 with one home run and a nice 11/7 strikeout to walk ratio over fifteen games. He's a patient hitter that controls the zone well, both against ordinary A-10 pitching and against much better pitching on the Cape. That should ease his transition to pro ball and help him continue tapping his power as he moves up the rungs. Sticking at third base will be key, as he has seen time at first base and a move across the diamond would put make it more difficult to find at bats. The bat looks playable at third base but he'll need to find an extra gear to earn regular playing time at first base. Through eighteen games at Low A Modesto, he is slashing .261/.329/.406 with two home runs and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio.

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

Last year, the Marlins gave Oregon prep pitcher Noble Meyer about a million dollars below slot value with their first pick, then handed Massachusetts prep pitcher Thomas White over $1.5 million above slot value to sign with their second. Miami did something very similar this year with a pair of prep bats, handing PJ Morlando more than a million below slot value with their first pick and Carter Johnson more than a million above slot value with their second. If you go by bonuses versus slot value, they essentially traded their #16 and #56 picks for the #25 and #33 picks instead. Clearly, they saw less separation between the top prospects in both draft classes and wanted two shots at big names versus one at a premium name. This year, they targeted mostly bats overall, mostly looking at guys with either strong bat to ball or strong plate discipline. I'm personally pretty interested in the names they pulled together, and I think eighth rounder Jacob Jenkins-Cowart has a chance to be a real steal if they can get his development right.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-16: OF PJ Morlando, Summerville HS [SC] {video}
Slot value: $4.7 million. Signing bonus: $3.4 million ($1.3 million below slot value).
My rank: #38. MLB Pipeline: #43. Baseball America: #52.
The Marlins started this draft off with a bit of a surprising pick, grabbing PJ Morlando for a massive under slot bonus that paid him just under the slot value for the #25 pick here at pick #16, signing him away from a South Carolina commitment in the process. Morlando has long been a famous name in this class, having earned first round buzz for his exploits on the summer showcase circuits for years now. He entered the spring jockeying with Konnor Griffin for the title of the best prep bat in the country, ranking as high as #10 on my pre-season boards. His spring turned out to be fairly unremarkable, though, and his stock dropped accordingly with some outlets letting him fall out of the top fifty. The Marlins still believe in Morlando's bat, and boy does he give them good reason. He has massive raw power and puts on arguably the most impressive batting practice of any high schooler in the country. It comes from a very strong, mature 6'3" frame that effortlessly generates great leverage. However, he hasn't always tapped that power consistently in games and may have improvements to make in terms of barrel accuracy. Meanwhile, he has an extremely disciplined approach at the plate that has helped him handle all kinds of high level pitching, especially premium velocity. Morlando uses the entire field effectively and should be one of the most pro-ready bats in the prep class. How much of his prodigious raw power the Marlins can unlock in games will determine how far he goes as a hitter. Meanwhile, the Charleston-area product has played all over the field, but his fringy speed likely limits him to a corner outfield spot or first base, which would put more pressure on the power to show up. He's extremely old for the class, having turned 19 in May, but he seems to have a great head on his shoulders and brings maturity beyond his years to the game. It may be tempting to compare this pick to Jacob Berry, whom the Marlins drafted sixth overall in 2022 and which has not looked good in hindsight, but I'd caution against that. Berry, like Morlando, was a below average athlete with a great combination of power, contact, and discipline. But Berry's power came from excellent feel for the barrel and the ability to loft the ball with authority, which masked his more ordinary raw exit velocities and caused his power to play down with wood. Morlando, meanwhile, shows much better raw exit velocities but has had issues making that optimal contact in games. You weren't going to get Berry hitting the ball harder, but you might be able to tweak Morlando's approach to access the power he already has. He grounded out in his first at bat at Low A Jupiter but shortly after with a lumbar stress reaction.

2-56: SS Carter Johnson, Oxford HS [AL] {video}
Slot value: $1.6 million. Signing bonus: $2.8 million ($1.2 million above slot value).
My rank: #43. MLB Pipeline: #40. Baseball America: #37.
After saving $1.3 million on PJ Morlando, the Marlins spent nearly all of their savings on pulling second rounder Carter Johnson away from an Alabama commitment, with his $2.8 million bonus representing just over the slot value for the #33 pick here at #56. While there isn't a true carrying tool here with Johnson, you'd be hard pressed to find any weaknesses in his profile either. He has a long track record of hitting against top showcase competition with a natural, whippy left handed swing that produces hard line drives to all fields. Meanwhile, scouts are split on his future power projection but the Marlins would appear to be bullish. Johnson is skinny at 6'2", with twitchy hands, nice leverage, and strong feel for the barrel to help him produce fringe-average power for now. I see him growing into average power, but the frame is fairly skinny and I think he'll always be hit over power. The Alabama native is also a smooth defender at shortstop that gets rid of the ball quickly and accurately, giving him a chance to stick there long term. He's more of an average runner, though, so there is a chance he gets pushed off to second or third by a springier, more explosive defender. Johnson's well-rounded profile could have him moving quickly through the minors, and once in the majors he could project for 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages at peak. The Marlins assigned him aggressively to Low A Jupiter, where he is hitting .237/.283/.301 with one home run and a 34/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 23 games against much older competition.

CBB-70: RHP Aiden May, Oregon State {video}
Slot value: $1.14 million. Signing bonus: $900,000 ($239,100 below slot value).
My rank: #73. MLB Pipeline: #82. Baseball America: #116.
This pick may seem a bit inconspicuous after two highly touted preps, but Aiden May is a very interesting prospect in his own right. He began his career at Pima JC in Arizona, transferred to Arizona for his sophomore season, then jumped to Oregon State for his junior year and pitched extremely well. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 97 at peak, with running action. The overall ordinary life makes the pitch play down, making it a fringe-average pitch for now. He can sink or cut it when needed, though those variations are just average as well. His slider, though, steals the show. He leaned heavily on it in 2024, throwing it more than his fastball, getting tremendous sweep on it to create some ugly swings and miss a ton of bats. That pitch alone could make him a major leaguer. He's working his changeup in more to good results, giving him a second solid offspeed offering. May is a good athlete with a loose delivery and a low three quarters slot that helps him create a low release point, adding some intrigue to the east-west profile here. He also repeats his delivery well and throws a lot of strikes, both with his fastball and with his slider, giving him at least average command going forward. The Marlins are buying into the show-stopping slider, but how far he goes as a starter will depend on finding more success with his fastball. The Marlins may toy with the shape and/or location to keep it off more barrels, looking to better neutralize left handed hitters. At minimum, the sweeper is so effective that he'll have a bullpen spot waiting for him in Miami should starting not work out.

3-92: 2B Gage Miller, Alabama {video}
Slot value: $800,800. Signing bonus: $800,800.
My rank: #93. MLB Pipeline: #68. Baseball America: #111.
Though he started his career as an unheralded recruit at Bishop State JC in Mobile, Gage Miller came out of nowhere upon transferring to Alabama in 2024 to put up one of the best seasons in the SEC, even finding his name on the Golden Spikes Midseason Watch List. For good reason, too – he finished with 21 home runs and a .382/.470/.721 line in 58 games for the Tide. I mentioned that the PJ Morlando pick was very different from the Jacob Berry pick, but this one is much more similar. Given that it's a third round pick and not a sixth overall pick, it's much more reasonable. Miller, like Berry, produces more game power than raw power. The raw power, in fact, is fringy at best, but he is so adept at finding the barrel and driving the ball in the air that it plays to above average power in games. It's a lightning quick right handed swing with zero wasted movement, helping him make plenty of contact both inside and outside the zone and walk (10.1%) more than he struck out (9.0%) in 2024. There's some chase in the profile, especially against changeups, but it's not a lot and the overall approach is pretty strong. Miller played third base at Alabama but the Marlins drafted him as a second baseman, where his fringy defensive tools might be better hidden. There's a good chance he gets pushed further down the defensive spectrum to first base or left field, where the pressure would really mount on his bat, but the upside is a bat-first second baseman who can hit close to 20 home runs per season with relatively high batting averages. He's moving quickly already, slashing .264/.337/.322 with a 19/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games between Low A Jupiter and High A Beloit.

4-122: SS Fenwick Trimble, James Madison {video}
Slot value: $589,000. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($39,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #201.
The Marlins got an interesting data darling in Fenwick Trimble, who also has a tremendous baseball name. He's a three year starter and performer at JMU, including having hit .356/.452/.633 with 27 home runs in 117 games over the past two seasons combined. Perhaps his most impressive swing came in his very first at bat of the 2024 season when he knocked a three run home run off eventual White Sox fifth overall pick Hagen Smith, who would allow just one more run in his next five starts combined. Trimble indeed has a very heavy barrel that produces above average raw power, mostly translating into doubles (he has 43 of them over the past two seasons) because his approach is geared towards hard line drives to all fields. He also makes a ton of contact and walked (10.2%) more than he struck out (8.1%) in 2024, owing to a very accurate barrel. In fact, out of 145 college hitters on the Baseball America 500, only one was able to best both his 107.1 MPH 90th percentile exit velocity and his 85.5% contact rate – Lehigh's Rafe Perich, now a Ranger. Now Trimble does have a bit of a tendency to chase, which may hurt him as he makes the jump from Sun Belt to pro pitching. He hit just .231/.279/.347 in 46 games on the Cape last summer, salvaged a bit by a hot run through the playoffs. This may be a case where the Virginia Beach product will have to choose between a power-oriented or contact-oriented approach. Interestingly, the Marlins drafted Trimble as a shortstop despite the fact that he played exclusively outfield at JMU – first the corners, then center field in 2024. Trimble has some speed and has refined his glove out there, so even if he moves back to a corner, he'll be a solid defender and likely net-positive. To this point, he has also not appeared on the infield in the minors. It will be interesting to see how the Marlins develop him as a hitter, and so far he's slashing .255/.300/.340 with eight stolen bases and a 15/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games at Low A Jupiter.

5-155: RHP Grant Shepardson, Mountain Vista HS [CO] {video}
Slot value: $427,000. Signing bonus: $897,500 ($470,500 above slot value).
My rank: #101. MLB Pipeline: #141. Baseball America: #193.
The Marlins doubled the slot value here in the fifth round to give Grant Shepardson third round money, just over the slot value for the #85 pick, to sign away from a San Francisco commitment. Personally, I'm a big fan of Shepardson. He already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 98 with riding action, and more is likely coming. He flashes plus with his slider, though the pitch is inconsistent and he can get around it at times, causing it to flatten out, or overcorrect and get too vertical on the pitch. For now, those two pitches are the main show, as the changeup is more of a distant third right now. The 6'1" righty is very athletic on the mound with nice lower half extension and a quick arm, helping him project for additional velocity while also making his stuff jump on hitters. The command is improving, too, giving him a really well-rounded profile. If Shepardson can bring his changeup along and get a little more consistent with his slider, he has a chance to be a real impact starting pitcher in Miami. Between the velocity, ability to spin, athleticism, and trajectory, I'm personally bought in.

6-184: SS Payton Green, Georgia Tech {video}
Slot value: $331,300. Signing bonus: $328,800 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #170. MLB Pipeline: #169. Baseball America: #196.
Payton Green has been on scouts' radars for a while now. A top prep prospect out of Pro5 Academy in the Raleigh-Durham area, he stayed home to attend NC State and held down a starting role for two years. In 2024, he hopped over to Georgia Tech and took a small step forward, hitting .308/.407/.577 with twelve home runs in 55 games. Green, like second rounder Carter Johnson, does a lot well on the diamond and lacks a standout tool, though unlike Johnson he's probably a tad more power over hit. Standing 6'3", he shows average power in games with a smooth right handed swing. He'll chase power at times, getting aggressive and trying to turn on the ball and unraveling his at bats in the process, but he's at his best when he lets that power come naturally. Green is an aggressive hitter who can chase out of the zone but makes pretty solid contact overall, so if the Marlins can refine his approach a little bit, there's sneaky offensive upside here. There's projection remaining on his frame as well, which could help him grow into above average power in time. He has played all over the infield and while he probably doesn't profile as a shortstop in pro ball, he can be adequate there if needed and should make a solid third baseman in the long run. Green hasn't found his footing at the plate yet, slashing .150/.314/.150 with a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 15 games at Low A Jupiter.

7-214: RHP Nick Brink, Portland {video}
Slot value: $259,600. Signing bonus: $195,000 ($64,600 below slot value).
My rank: #211. MLB Pipeline: #166. Baseball America: #204.
It was a down year for high-end senior signs, but the Marlins picked up one of the better ones in Nick Brink. He spent four years at the University of Portland, missing the 2022 season with Tommy John surgery but turning into a true ace for the Pilots over the past two seasons. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with sink, making for an average pitch, and he brings a full arsenal of secondaries. His changeup is his best pitch, tumbling out of his hand to confound hitters. He throws both a curveball and a slider, showing more depth than power as they project more as strike stealers than true bat missers in pro ball. Everything plays up because Brink has plus command and shows great feel to sequence and execute all four pitches, continually keeping hitters off balance and putting each pitch in competitive locations to help them play at their best. That polish will come in handy given his age, as he's set to turn 23 before the end of the pro season, and he'll look to move quickly through the system. He has the upside of a back-end starter with a fallback as a long reliever whose stuff could tick up in shorter stints. He's also a strong student who had interest from Ivy League schools out of high school but turned them down to stay home in Portland, a decision that has certainly paid off in numerous ways.

8-244: 1B Jacob Jenkins-Cowart, East Carolina {video}
Slot value: $211,600. Signing bonus: $211,600.
My rank: #113. MLB Pipeline: #228. Baseball America: #113.
To me, this is one of the single best value picks of the draft. I had Jacob Jenkins-Cowart ranked in the fourth round range, and they got him here in the eighth without going above slot value. Sure, the profile is far from perfect, but there is enough in there for me to be very interested. Jenkins-Cowart hit the ground running at ECU in 2022, where he was named a Freshman All-American by D1Baseball after hitting .330/.367/.549 with 13 home runs and starting nearly every game. He failed to build on that in 2023, then his power took some time to show up in 2024 until the ran into a bit of a home run binge late in the season. The Greensboro native is a a lanky 6'6" and stands out for that long, projectable frame. Those long arms give him above average power for now, though tweaks to his approach could help him tap that power more in games as he learns to select better pitches he can turn on and elevate. Jenkins-Cowart is an aggressive hitter who has never walked more than 7.5% of the time in any season, leading to more weak contact than you'd like. However, I'm intrigued by his strong bat to ball ability, running roughly an 80% contact rate despite the propensity to chase bad pitches, and it's even more impressive given his long levers that cause many lanky hitters to swing through hittable pitches. That body control could help him really pull things together with more refinement to his approach, though unfortunately the Marlins are not known for strong hitting development. Meanwhile, JJC is a fringy runner who played corner outfield at ECU, and while the Marlins drafted him as a first baseman, he's stuck in right field so far as a pro. I see him continuing as a corner outfielder long term but if he slows down further as he fills out and ages, he could be forced to first base. Either way, the bat is the draw here with the potential for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps more if they get the development right, alongside average on-base percentages. So far, he's slashing .221/.284/.326 with one home run and a 28/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games for Low A Jupiter.

13-394: SS Cody Schrier, UCLA {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #217. MLB Pipeline: #138. Baseball America: #130.
Cody Schrier is a bit of a post-hype prospect whom the Marlins are hoping to buy into at the right time. He was among the best prep prospects in California in 2021, ranking #55 on my overall draft board that year but reaching campus at UCLA instead. There he made an immediate impact, earning first team freshman all-American honors at numerous publications and was one of 55 players nationally selected to the pre-season Golden Spikes watchlist before his sophomore year. Unfortunately, Schrier plateaued from there and has seen his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage all drop in each year in Westwood, beginning at .298/.383/.492 as a freshman and ending at .242/.320/.354 as a junior. Schrier, like a few other infielders in this Marlins draft class, is a jack of all trades, master of none. He has a quick right handed swing and nice strength in his 6'1" frame, giving him average power to the pull side when he does look to turn on the ball. That power plays down a bit in games though and he had just ten extra base hits in 2024, a career-low. Schrier shows controlled aggression at the plate, chasing at a very high rate but still recognizing pitches well and showing the ability to handle premium offspeed stuff. Still, he does swing and miss more than you'd like and projects as a fringe-average hitter. The Marlins hope they can use his pitch recognition ability to tweak his approach and get him hunting better pitches to hit. Meanwhile, the Southern California native does show very strong feel for the infield can handle shortstop in a pinch, though his average speed and arm will likely push him to second base or third base, where he could be above average. Schrier is a heady, accomplished ballplayer with a high baseball IQ who projects as a utility infielder at best.

Saturday, August 31, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers looked at the slot value structure, laughed, and went their own way spreading their bonus pool all over the place. They saved about $1.7 million on their first two picks, gave nearly a million of that back to second rounder Bryce Meccage, then saved another three quarters of a million dollars on third rounder Jaron DeBerry. They also knew that Meccage and competitive balance pick Chris Levonas would be tough signs, so they drafted seven preps (mostly pitchers) on day three plus two more tough-sign college arms. It turns out that Levonas didn't sign, so they spread the money around and spent more than two million dollars against their bonus pool on four of those day three arms, leaving five (plus Levonas) unsigned. This was a clearly pitching-heavy draft, as after taking bats with their first two picks, the Brewers only signed one position player the rest of the way. They targeted unique fastballs, projection, and youth relative to class, trusting heavily in what's been a pretty successful pitching development pipeline.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-18: OF Braylon Payne, Elkins HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $4.53 million. Signing bonus: $3.44 million ($1.09 million below slot value).
My rank: #51. MLB Pipeline: #53. Baseball America: #54.
The Brewers played their first pick anything but straight up. Braylon Payne was almost universally considered a second round talent, but Milwaukee was so convicted in his tools and projection that they grabbed him here in the middle of the first round, paying the Houston commit roughly the slot value for the #25 pick here at pick #18. That move saves the Brewers more than a million dollars, savings which they would deploy a round later on New Jersey prep arm Bryce Meccage. Payne, meanwhile, is no slouch. He stands out first for his plus-plus speed that regularly impacts the game on both sides of the ball, but he's more than a speedster. He's skinny at this point at 6'2", 185 pounds, but he has steadily gotten more physical and projects to continue to do that for a long time. He starts with his hands high before dropping them into the hitting zone, gashing line drives around the park with regularity against Houston-area pitching in 2024. It's a bit of a disconnected stroke that is purely focused on contact at this point, and when he misses, he usually misses on top of the ball with lots of ground balls that play well to his blazing speed. As Payne continues to refine his swing mechanics and learn to leverage the ball, he could tap fringe-average power in the long run with the potential for 10-15 home runs per season, perhaps more at peak. Still, it will always be a hit over power profile. Meanwhile, he's a weapon in center field with strong feel for the position beyond his speed, so he'll not only stick there but provide positive big league value despite his weaker arm. Age ties the profile together nicely, as Payne didn't turn 18 until a month after the draft and has plenty of time to grow both physically and in his skillset. If it all breaks right, he could be Milwaukee's leadoff man of the future.

CBA-34: 1B Blake Burke, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $2.70 million. Signing bonus: $2.10 million ($598,300 below slot value).
My rank: #37. MLB Pipeline: #65. Baseball America: #51.
I love this pick. Blake Burke is a borderline-first round talent, and they saved nearly $600,000 here by signing him to roughly the slot value of the #44 pick. If you've followed college baseball at all, you know who Tommy White is, and Burke actually stacks up extremely well against his more famous LSU counterpart. Firstly, Burke is a big, physical presence in the box at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, looking even bigger as he stands straight and tall awaiting the pitch. He has a simple left handed swing that channels all of his brute strength into plus-plus raw power, power which he taps effortlessly and consistently in games. Beyond the power, he actually has plus bat to ball skills to make a ton of contact inside and outside the zone, though the hit tool plays down just a tick due to an extremely aggressive approach. Burke chases roughly a third of the time, one of the highest rates among early draft picks, yet still struck out in less than 15% of his plate appearances in 2024 as he made contact anyways. Pro and MLB pitchers will "know how to miss" a bit better than college pitchers, which will make things more difficult on Burke, though his bat to ball should help bail him out until he makes the appropriate adjustments. Meanwhile, the Northern California native is a non-athlete that will be limited to first base, where his well below average speed and heavy feet will be less of an issue. Despite his lack of athleticism, he does handle himself well around the bag and should be just fine at first base. Like Braylon Payne, Burke is young for the class and turned 21 a month before the draft. He has picked up four hits, all singles, in sixteen at bats with four strikeouts to two walks through five games at High A Wisconsin.

2-57: RHP Bryce Meccage, Pennington HS [NJ] {video}
Slot value: $1.56 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($937,900 above slot value).
My rank: #55. MLB Pipeline: #51. Baseball America: #71.
After saving over $1.5 million on their first two picks, the Brewers began to cash in here by bringing in one of the top prep arms in the Northeast. With a signing bonus roughly fitting for the #37 pick, the Brewers pulled Bryce Meccage away from a Virginia commitment. Meccage sits in the low 90's and touches 97 with a fastball, an explosive pitch that plays up further with riding action. He has great feel for spin at this point, showing both an above average curveball and slider with distinct shapes to miss bats. The changeup is behind, but you'll happily take three potential above average pitches. Meccage is a great athlete with explosive actions on the mound, repeating his delivery well for average command that you don't often see paired with his caliber of stuff. 6'4" righty also has a very physical frame with additional room to fill out and add even more power, giving him legitimate ace upside especially in a system like Milwaukee that develops pitching well. While like most high school pitchers he has a long way to go, this is a special arm talent that already shows some polish.

CBB-67: RHP Chris Levonas, Christian Brothers HS [NJ] {video}
Slot value: $1.23 million. Signing bonus: did not sign.
My rank: #63. MLB Pipeline: #59. Baseball America: #74.
As a fellow New Jersey power armed righty, Chris Levonas is a very similar arm to Bryce Meccage. The Brewers hoped their massive savings in the first two rounds would help them lure Levonas away from a Wake Forest, but unfortunately they could only afford one and they won't be able to spend his $1.23 million slot value elsewhere. Like Meccage, he has a low 90's fastball that touches 97 with riding life and also shows excellent feel for spin. He can really rip through his power curveball with big spin rates and nasty bite, and he can shift it into more of a cutter/slider that looks like an above average pitch in its own right. Again like Meccage, the changeup is a bit behind. While Meccage is a little more physical, Levonas is an even more explosive athlete that gets down the mound extremely well with projection remaining on his 6'2" frame. Because he's so explosive on the mound, his command can be impacted and he can get scattered, so Wake Forest will look to smooth that out a bit while preserving the big time stuff. He has a chance to become a superstar under the tutelage of renowned pitching coach Corey Muscara.

3-93: RHP Jaron DeBerry, Dallas Baptist {video}
Slot value: $788,700. Signing bonus: $25,000 ($763,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #459.
Continuing with the bonus pool games, the Brewers more or less punted their third round pick from a bonus standpoint, grabbing senior sign Jaron DeBerry for a minuscule $25,000. The bonus standpoint disclaimer is important, because Deberry is an impressive arm. He began his career at Northern Oklahoma JC, then transferred to Grayson JC as a sophomore and finally on to Dallas Baptist for his junior and senior seasons. 2024 was his best year yet, impressively completing at least five innings in all sixteen of his appearances. The fastball sits around 90, perhaps a tick above, and tops out around 94 with riding and cutting action from a lower slot, making for a sneaky offering that plays up. Following the "feel for spin" theme of this draft class, he leans heavily on his tight, hard sweeper and his downer curveball, while also showing a true cutter, sinker, and changeup, though those are more filler for the arsenal than headliners. He doesn't carry much weight on his skinny 6'2" frame, offering some projection, and he has assuaged durability concerns so far with a consistent, high workload season at Dallas Baptist. DeBerry repeats his delivery well and shows a tick above average command. Between the deep arsenal, consistency, projection, and command, it's a really nice sleeper of a starting pitching profile for a guy who barely signed for any money. And though he's a senior sign, the DFW native is young for his class and didn't turn 22 until more than a month after the draft.

4-123: C Marco Dinges, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $583,400. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($83,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Marco Dinges was a prominent bat in the ACC this past season, though most outlets saw him as a better college hitter than pro prospect. Not the Brewers, who believe fully in the bat and even think he has a chance to catch at the next level. Dinges began his career at Tallahassee JC, planned on transferring to Maryland, then changed course and instead headed down Pensacola Street to play at Florida State where he was all-ACC third team. He's a power-over-hit type with a sturdy 6' frame that can blast balls out to all fields with ease, doing so fifteen times in 2024. He's also a pretty disciplined hitter that walked (13.3%) more than he struck out (12.5%), keeping the swing and miss down by swinging at good pitches he knew he could work with. Meanwhile, Dinges is a below average athlete that has spent a lot of time at DH, though he has made appearances in the outfield and behind the plate. His below average speed limits him in the former, though his above average arm could help him cut it in right field, while he's raw at the latter. However, his strong frame and arm strength give him a nice baseline as a catcher, and if he can maintain his mobility and clean up hsi actions a little bit, he does have a shot to play there. That would certainly elevate the profile considerably, as he'd otherwise have to be carried by his bat alone which could go either way. He is young for the class, not turning 21 until more than a month after the draft. So far, he's slashing .303/.378/.394 with a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio through eight games at Low A Carolina.

5-156: RHP John Holobetz, Old Dominion {video}
Slot value: $422,900. Signing bonus: $322,500 ($100,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
John Holobetz is another one that was off the radar a bit. Another transfer, he began his career at Radford and played the last two seasons across the state at Old Dominion, where he has been a valuable swingman for the Monarchs. Holobetz has a low 90's fastball that gets up to around 95, with more likely in the tank. He complements the fastball with a nice slider, and those two are his main weapons. Holobetz lost his spot in the rotation after four turns this spring, but showed very well as a long reliever and still averaged over four innings per appearance overall. He has above average command and moves extremely well on the mound, with significant projection remaining in his 6'3" frame. He could cut it as a back-end starter if he brings the changeup along, or his stuff has a chance to really leap forward in shorter stints with better command than most relievers. It's a pretty fun arm that the Brewers tend to do well with. Breaking from the theme a bit, the Pennsylvania native is older for the class and turned 22 shortly after the draft, making him older than senior Jaron DeBerry and more than a year older than fellow junior Marco Dinges.

7-215: LHP Mason Molina, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $257,400. Signing bonus: $254,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #190. MLB Pipeline: #225. Baseball America: #147.
After a stretch of names expected to go a bit later in the draft, Mason Molina is one of the more famous players to be taken by any team in this late day two part of the draft. Molina was a coveted prep arm out of Southern California, landing at Texas Tech where he was a central piece of head coach Tim Tadlock's pitching staffs in 2022 and 2023. Transferring to Arkansas this past season, he slotted right into the Razorback rotation and turned in another solid season, giving a really extensive body of work overall. His fastball sits around 90 and tops out around 95, which isn't overwhelming, but it plays way above its velocity with massive riding life to make it almost like an invisiball. He has a big, deep curveball and a tighter slider, both of which reliably miss bats in the zone when he executes them, which is often. Molina rounds things out with an above average changeup with great fading action, and it might be his best pitch when all is said and done. He lacks a true strikeout pitch and the breaking balls lack the true snap to elicit chases, but he's a high IQ pitcher who effectively sequences his pitches and works through lineups. The 6'2" lefty has gotten bigger at Arkansas, now clocking in at 230 pounds, and lacks projection at this point. Still, he's young for the class and only turned 21 shortly before the draft, so there's hope he could add a frankly necessary tick or two to his fastball in pro ball. It's hard to call anybody high floor these days, but as a durable lefty with four pitches he knows how to sequence, Molina is a high probably back-end starter and struck out three over two shutout innings in his first start at Low A Carolina.

13-395: LHP Joey Broughton, Northville HS [MI] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $535,000 ($385,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #143. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #168.
If the Brewers weren't going to sign Chris Levonas (plus a few other day three picks), Joey Broughton is more than a nice consolation price after they gave him late fourth round money to sign away from a Pittsburgh commitment. He was teammates with Phillies first round pick Dante Nori at Northville High School in the Detroit suburbs, making for possibly the best hitter/pitcher combination of any high school in the country. Broughton is a very interesting sleeper. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95-96, but it plays way above its velocity with huge riding action from a low release point, an uncommon combination. He has a big, two-plane curveball with nice finish, with the chance to become an above average or even plus pitch with added power. There's also a changeup in there that he hasn't fully gained feel for, but does flash some nice ones. It's a fairly athletic, crossfire delivery with a bit of longer arm action that can impact his command, but he repeats it well and has a chance to be average or better in that regard. The 6'2" righty has some projection but is pretty sturdily built right now, giving him every chance to start overall. This is a nice day three sleeper with real mid-rotation upside, showing the potential for three above average pitches from the left side.

15-455: RHP Travis Smith, Kentucky {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $462,500 ($312,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: #218. MLB Pipeline: #179. Baseball America: #265.
This is an interesting pick and a case of the Brewers really trusting their talent evaluation as they hand Travis Smith fifth round money here in the fifteenth round. Smith was a highly regarded recruit out of Northern Kentucky, but missed his freshman season with both heart surgery and Tommy John surgery. He earned a full time role in the rotation in 2023, putting himself in early day two consideration heading into 2024, but he lost his spot in the rotation this past spring as he struggled to a wholly unremarkable season. He planned to transfer to Mississippi State for 2025, but the Brewers believe in the arm talent and gave him the money he was expecting before his tough season. Smith has a low 90's fastball that gets up to about 96-97 at peak, coming in with running and sinking life from a lower slot to avoid hard contact. He has a tight slider that works well off his fastball, which he can work into a cutter to split the difference, and also has a changeup that's a bit behind. Smith has had streaky command at Kentucky and struggled to stay ahead of hitters in 2024, leading to an elevated 12.5% walk rate but perhaps more concerning, just an 18.8% strikeout rate that represented the second lowest mark of any of the 54 college pitchers on my draft board. The Brewers will have to unlock better execution to get him missing bats at a higher rate, as the current product won't cut it in pro ball. The arm talent is certainly there, though, and Milwaukee thinks they can unlock it with perhaps some tweaks to the stuff and usage.

16-485: RHP Jayden Dubanewicz, Stoneman Douglas HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $665,000 ($515,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Brewers continued doing their thing, this time handing out another large bonus to Jayden Dubanewicz, who signed for early fourth round money to skip a Florida commitment. This one is a pure projection play. Dubanewicz is long and lanky at a listed 6'3", 160 pounds, looking like he could legitimately add fifty-plus pounds as he gets into a pro conditioning program. The fastball sits in the low 90's right now and only tops out around 92-93, so that added strength will be key. The fastball comes in with running and sinking action from a lower slot, while the slider is loopy but gets nice finish diving the opposite direction. His changeup is a third pitch but present. Dubanewicz is very raw and may need to hang back in complex ball for a little bit, but the Brewers believed he would have exploded at Florida and they'd prefer to have him explode in their own system. If it works out, the sky is the limit.

18-545: RHP Tyler Renz, Fox Lane HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $852,500 ($702,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #279.
The Brewers shelled out a lot of large bonuses on day three, but none were larger than the $852,500 handed to St. John's commit Tyler Renz – roughly the slot value for the #88 pick, mid-third round. Like Jayden Dubanewicz, he's a pure projection play. The fastball hovers around 90 and tops out around 93 in short stints with running action, so he'll certainly need to add velocity. He has nice feel for a slider with late bite, while his changeup is a distant third pitch. Renz is extremely projectable at a listed 6'4", 180 pounds, with a sturdy frame that looks fit to add that weight. He also has a free and easy delivery that helps him stay under control and fill the zone, giving him the potential for above average command in the long run. Renz is extremely young for the class, tying Diamondbacks second rounder Ivan Luciano for the second youngest player in the entire draft and not turning 18 until November. That adds to the projection in a big way, and if he can add about five MPH to his fastball while continuing to progress with his command, he has a chance to be an impact starting pitcher.

Thursday, August 29, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays

Full list of draftees

This is an unmistakably Rays draft class. They started with a high school position player, grabbed an undersized infielder who seemed destined to go a round or three later, then pivoted to a slew of unique profiles. They targeted bat speed in their preps and found a whole range of arms that deliver the ball in all sorts of ways, from Jacob Kmatz's high slot to Janzen Keisel's low slot and everything in between. If there's a big knock on this class, though, it was the failure to sign competitive balance pick Tyler Bell. The Rays had between $1.5 million and $2.25 million to offer him depending on how much overage tax they wanted to pay, but couldn't come to a deal and wound up $250,000 below their bonus pool, by far the biggest gap of any team. Meanwhile, Florida has some of the most fertile baseball soil in the country, so probabilistically speaking it's a bit of a surprise that the Rays didn't select a single player hailing from the Sunshine State (though twelfth rounder Jack Lines moved their from Canada to play at a private academy in Orlando). 
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-18: OF Theo Gillen, Westlake HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $4.37 million. Signing bonus: $4.37 million.
My rank: #26. MLB Pipeline: #28. Baseball America: #23.
Theo Gillen had one of the most impressive senior seasons in all of high school baseball this spring, and now he'll headline the Rays' draft class after signing away from a Texas commitment. He came into the spring looking much more physical and now has a big league body with which to impact the baseball. He doesn't get cheated with his leveraged left handed swing, using a heavy barrel to spray hard line drives around the field. It's not his game yet, but once he gets into pro ball the Rays will likely work with him to pull the ball in the air more often to tap his above average power. I fully believe that he is capable of doing so successfully. Gillen is also a professional hitter whose newfound strength and impact have made him one of the most complete hitters in this draft class. Meanwhile, he's also a plus runner but his overall defensive tools are a bit behind. He doesn't quite have the arm strength to play shortstop, while his glovework and overall feel for the infield need refinement if he wants to play second base, but he's fully capable. The Rays drafted him as an outfielder, where his speed could help him play center field if he doesn't slow down with age. If he does slow down, he'll have to move to left, where he will still have plenty of bat to profile with 20+ home run upside and high on-base percentages. So far, he has one hit in six at bats with four strikeouts to two walks through a pair of games at Low A Charleston.

2-58: SS Emilien Pitre, Kentucky {video}
Slot value: $1.53 million. Signing bonus: $1.52 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #147. MLB Pipeline: #173. Baseball America: #261.
The Rays plucked Emilien Pitre off the board a lot earlier than many expected. Not only that, they signed him to essentially the full slot value, another surprise given that most publications had him pegged more in the middle of day two (credit to ESPN for putting him #76). Their brand is that they like unconventional, metric-friendly profiles and Pitre certainly fits that, so I'm very interested to see what they do here. He barely played as a freshman in 2022, then jumped in as Kentucky's everyday second baseman in 2023 and never looked back. "Petey" is a bit undersized at 5'11", but packs much more impact than you'd think. He is extremely disciplined at the plate and controls the strike zone as well as anybody in this draft, as evidenced by a career 73/91 strikeout to walk ratio – he has walked more than he struck out in all three seasons. The pure bat to ball is probably a tick above average as well, which brings it to at least an above average hit tool overall. Pitre's quick left handed swing produces some stinging line drives and he can turn on the ball for fringe-average power, so he has a shot to flirt with double digit home run totals annually. Combine that with above average speed, and he can impact the game in a lot of ways. The Montreal-area product has great actions in the dirt and plays a pretty mean second base, too. The Rays optimistically drafted him as a shortstop, and he does have great feel for the infield and the quick feet to get the job done. The arm might be a little light, but it's an easy above average glove over at second base. He's taken well to pro ball so far, slashing .306/.404/.388 with five stolen bases and an 8/7 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games at Low A Charleston.

CBB-66: SS Tyler Bell, Lincoln Way East HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: $1.26 million. Signing bonus: did not sign.
My rank: #48. MLB Pipeline: #81. Baseball America: #103.
As it turns out, the Rays took one infielder from Kentucky only to give them another, as Tyler Bell was the highest drafted player this year not to sign and will instead head to Lexington. He is a very interesting prospect to say the least, and with the Rays coming $250,000 short of their bonus pool, he must have turned down at least $1.5 million if not closer to $2.25 million if they offered the 5% overage. A switch hitter, Bell stands out for elite bat speed from both sides of the plate. Not very good, not plus, but elite, and as we've seen from the recently released bat tracking data at the MLB level, that's a big deal. Meanwhile, the on-field results have been more good than great, making him a bit of a sleeper if you're not into the data. He's been a bit inconsistent against higher level pitching and can get tied up by better stuff, so he's far from a finished product. The power hasn't quite manifested yet in games as he's still tacking strength onto his 6'1" frame, but with that bat speed, it's coming. Meanwhile, Bell's glove may be more impressive than his bat. He's a slick defender at shortstop with a quick transfer and an accurate arm, so unlike the previous two names in this draft class, he has a very good chance to not just stick at the premium position but thrive there. He'll do that at Kentucky, where he'll hope to grow into his power while polishing up his approach at the plate. With a June birthday that makes him extremely old for an incoming freshman, he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2026.

3-94: C Nathan Flewelling, St. Joseph HS [AB] {video}
Slot value: $776,500. Signing bonus: $774,000 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #236. Baseball America: #420.
Here's another really fun data darling. Nathan Flewelling hails from Red Deer, Alberta, a mid-size city about halfway between Calgary and Edmonton, but his remote hometown didn't keep his name from surfacing as one of the top prep players in Canada. He committed to Gonzaga fairly recently but the Rays bought him out with essentially full slot value here in the third round, where most boards had him rated a few rounds later. Flewelling stands out most for his power. He can really fling the barrel through the zone and while he hasn't nearly finished filling out his 6'2" frame, he produces some eye popping exit velocities that hint at future plus or even plus-plus raw power. As he fills out and learns to turn on the ball better, we could be talking about a serious middle of the order thumper. Flewelling has also made pretty good, consistent contact against the competition he's faced, though he doesn't have a long track record against top arms so the hit tool is a bit more of a question mark. Meanwhile, he continues to improve behind the plate and while he has a ways to go before you could consider his defense MLB-caliber, he moves pretty well back there and should take well to pro development. A power hitting left handed catcher could give the Rays some serious value, but he has a long way to go to get there. Age works in his favor, as he won't turn 18 until November and was one of the very youngest players in the entire draft.

4-124: RHP Nate Knowles, William & Mary {video}
Slot value: $577,700. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($180,200 below slot value).
My rank: #183. MLB Pipeline: #219. Baseball America: #152.
Nate Knowles gives the Rays another intriguing arm and for a significant discount as well. He has gotten better and better every season at William & Mary culminating in being named the CAA Pitcher of the Year this past spring, and now he's a Ray. Knowles sits in the low 90's with his fastball and only tops out around 95, which is modest by today's standards, but the pitch has massive riding action out of a lower slot to force a ton of empty swings. He's got a decent cutter/slider with a nice combination of power and movement in the upper 80's, while his curveball gives him a deeper, truer breaking ball and grades out as a better pitch. He doesn't use his changeup much and it'll need work in pro ball. The 6' righty has a bit of a stocky build and lacks projection, but he repeats his delivery well and throws enough strikes to warrant continued looks in the rotation. If he can hold the command together and bring that changeup along, the Rays are just the team to get creative and turn him into a #4 starter. If he moves to the bullpen, he could creep towards the mid 90's with his fastball and make that hop play even better.

5-157: RHP Jacob Kmatz, Oregon State {video}
Slot value: $418,600. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($21,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #314.
Jacob Kmatz, like Nate Knowles, was one of the better pitching performers out there this year with a 3.38 ERA and a 96/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings. Like Knowles, he gets it done with a deep arsenal as opposed to big velocity, but the similarities end there. Kmatz has a fastball around 90, creeping into the low 90's and touching 94, with nice riding action from a very high slot. He has a big, deep, 12-6 curveball that can show shoulder to knee break, while his distinct slider is the opposite in that it comes in with tight, lateral break about ten miles per hour faster. There's also a changeup, but it's behind the others. The 6'3" righty ran a very nice 6.3% walk rate in 2024, showing his above average control, though he doesn't always finish through his tall and fall delivery and can cast his pitches, so the control is ahead of the command. Kmatz is very durable and has thrown 238 innings in 46 appearances (45 starts) over the past three seasons, so he should have no issue handling a pro starter workload. Tampa will hope to help him add a little velocity and bring the changeup along, which gives him back of the rotation upside.

6-186: RHP Janzen Keisel, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $326,000. Signing bonus: $272,500 ($53,500 below slot value).
My rank: #160. MLB Pipeline: #248. Baseball America: #144.
Out of all these arms, Janzen Keisel was probably the most stereotypically Rays-like arm in that he's a complete unicorn. He spent his freshman year at BYU and showed well, then transferred to Oklahoma State for his sophomore season where he got off on the right foot by dominating Cal Baptist in his first start. He couldn't make it out of the second inning in his next start against Missouri State and has since struggled mightily with consistency, to the point where OSU used him less and less over the next two seasons. Keisel may need refinement, but the stuff is pretty nasty. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99 with big time life, riding and running from a very low slot to chew up bats when he locates it. His slider is pretty inconsistent, backing up at times, though at its best it shows late gyro bite and can miss bats. The changeup, like with other arms in this class, isn't used much. Keisel has a low three quarters slot and creates a unique look for hitters the way the ball comes out of his hand, but his below average command and inconsistent feel for his stuff makes him an enigma. He'll likely fit better in a bullpen role, where he can approach triple digits with his fastball with all its life and hopefully harness his slider a little better, and if any team can get that done, it's the Rays.

7-216: RHP Ryan Andrade, Pittsburgh {video}
Slot value: $255,500. Signing bonus: $253,000 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #249. Baseball America: #337.
Continuing the theme of non-traditional profiles is Ryan Andrade. He spent two seasons as a reliever at Rhode Island, then transferred to Pitt for his junior season in 2024. Making a simultaneous jump both to the ACC and to the rotation, he pitched to uneven results, twice allowing ten runs in starts against Virginia and Duke but also tossing back to back gems against Notre Dame and Florida State. As you might expect, Andrade has big stuff. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 96 with riding action to explode on hitters, while he brings a pair of sharp breaking balls that miss bats. A changeup completes the arsenal, though it's behind the others. The 6'2" righty has well below average command, a product both of his explosive stuff and of a moderately high effort delivery that includes some head whack. It looks like a relief profile on the surface, and he has experience there, so the Rays will really need to tighten things up if they want him to start long term. He's strong enough to do so with projection remaining on his frame, and the Rays do succeed with these types of arms.

12-366: SS Jack Lines, TNXL Academy [FL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($247,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Make that two high school position players from small cities in Alberta for the Rays. Jack Lines hails from Okotoks, about twenty miles south of Calgary, and spent the season at TNXL Academy in Ocoee, a western suburb of Orlando. Initially committed to Florida State, he'll head west down I-4 instead of north up I-75 after the Rays handed him late fifth round money here in the twelfth round. He's a left handed hitter with a quick, line drive-oriented swing that produces nice impact to all fields, and while he's not huge at a listed 6', 170 pounds, he's growing into his power and could get to fringy in that regard. Lines is also a strong defender with a strong arm and plenty of athleticism, which gives him every chance to play shortstop in the long run as the Rays clean up some of his defensive actions. The upside here is a high average, left handed hitting shortstop, which is a nice get for a $400K bonus, though he has a long way to go to reach that ceiling.

Saturday, August 24, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

The Mets pulled together a really interesting class filled with diverse skill sets that will be interesting to track in pro ball. It's headlined by Carson Benge, a do-it-all two-way guy who looks like he'll be a hitter only, and includes some live arms, data sleepers, and guys with interesting back stories. Now in the modern bonus pool era, teams almost universally sign every pick in the top ten rounds, but it appears the Mets are the one team to struggle with it. After failing to sign first rounder Kumar Rocker in 2021, they did the same with 2022 third rounder Brandon Sproat (then drafted and signed him a year later) and couldn't come to terms with ninth rounder Jaxon Jelkin this year.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-19: OF Carson Benge, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $4.22 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($221,700 below slot value).
My rank: #15. MLB Pipeline: #18. Baseball America: #15.
The Mets started off their draft with a fun one, one which reminds me just a bit of Mets 2023 third rounder and fellow OSU Cowboy Nolan McLean. Benge, a first rounder, has a much more polished, well-rounded profile and lacks McLean's other-worldly power, but aligns as a rangy, athletic two-way player with tremendous physical talent beyond just the baseball ability. McLean is now a pitcher, while it looks like Benge is going to hit. Tommy John surgery stole his freshman season in 2022, but he has been as central a piece as you can have for Oklahoma State over the past two seasons. He does a bit of it all. Benge has long levers in his 6'1" frame that he consistently gets extended, driving hard line drives around the field with plenty of regularity. While he prefers that all-fields approach, he's plenty strong with above average power that he is tapping more and more in games. With a patient approach and strong bat to ball, he controls the strike zone and walks at a high rate, and his overall skill set will be conducive to tapping more and more power as he develops. Some scouts question his unorthodox swing mechanics, which start with an open stance, continue into a leg kick/double foot tap hybrid coinciding with a barrel tip/hitch in his hands, and finish with significant head whack in his swing. Still, despite all the moving parts, he gets that barrel where it needs to be better than most hitters in this draft, speaking volumes to his innate hand-eye coordination. An average runner, he plays a very solid right field with his plus right arm that also serves him on the mound, where he is up to 96 with a deep slider and improving command. The Oklahoma City-area product is a great athlete that moves very well on both sides of the ball, further lending to the projection in his profile. With his athleticism, strength, barrel accuracy, patience, and projection, he could become one of the most well-rounded hitters in this class when all is said and done, with the chance to hit 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. He hasn't quite hit his stride yet, hitting .176/.391/.176 with eight strikeouts to five walks through five games at Low A St. Lucie.

2-46: LHP Jonathan Santucci, Duke {video}
Slot value: $2.03 million. Signing bonus: $2.03 million.
My rank: #41. MLB Pipeline: #37. Baseball America: #32.
Jonathan Santucci has been on a bit of an interesting ride and he comes with more upside than the typical second round college arm. After establishing himself with a very strong freshman season in 2022, elbow problems cut his strong start to the 2023 season short. Santucci got off to a hot start again in 2024, putting up seventeen straight scoreless innings against Indiana, Northwestern, and Akron right out of the gate (including fourteen strikeouts in six innings against Akron), and found himself in the middle of the first round conversation to the point where he may not have even been available to the Mets at #19. Unfortunately, command woes derailed his season from there somewhat, but righted the ship somewhat at the end and kept himself within the top fifty picks. Santucci has almost all of the ingredients you look for in an impact starting pitcher. The 6'2" lefty is durably and athletically built with a pretty ideal frame to throw 180+ innings a year in the bigs, with a fairly clean delivery that should be pretty repeatable with pro instruction. The fastball sits low to mid 90's and gets up to 96-97 at peak, coming in with above average riding life to make it play up another tick with close to a 30% whiff rate. He gets late, deep bite on his plus slider that gets excellent results, especially when he commands it. He doesn't use his changeup as much, but it too looks like a potential weapon against righties with great fade to the arm side. It's a true big league three pitch mix from the left side, something you rarely find from a starting pitcher mold in the second round. While the Massachusetts native has held together his command at times, it escaped him more often than not in 2024 as he struggled to repeat his release point and execute his spots. The stuff was still enough to overwhelm ACC hitters and his 35% strikeout rate was among the better marks you'll see, though the 14% walk rate showed the other side of that. If the Mets can help him gain just enough feel for his delivery to live in the zone, the stuff will take care of the rest and he could be a #2 or #3 starter. If not, he could end up a frustrating back-end starter that pops for some gems or a three pitch reliever.

3-82: RHP Nate Dohm, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $934,800. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($137,300 below slot value).
My rank: #122. MLB Pipeline: #165. Baseball America: #150.
I found Nate Dohm to be an interesting sleeper this year and I had him ranked about a round ahead of most other outlets. It seems the Mets agreed, and they drafted him about a round earlier than I had him ranked, paying him roughly the slot value for pick #92 here at pick #82. Despite coming from a big SEC program, he took a fairly circuitous route to where he is now. An Indianapolis-area native, he began his career at Ball State and transferred to Mississippi State after a solid freshman season. He was off to an excellent start as a starter in 2024 when forearm problems shut him down in March, and after making one short appearance in April, he returned for three relief appearances in May. Health is certainly a question mark, but the stuff isn't. Dohm's fastball can sit in the low to mid 90's and touch 99 in short stints (though a few ticks below that in longer outings), coming in with big riding action from a great release point. It's a true plus pitch, and it looks plus-plus in short bursts. He shows a pair of above average breaking balls and can execute them better than most amateur pitchers. The changeup is interesting, as he typically lacks feel for it and doesn't use it too much, but every once in a while he grips it right and can show a plus one. On top of everything, Dohm is an impressive mover on the mound that gets nice extension and a low release point to make everything play up a little more out of his hand. The 6'4" righty also shows above average command and walked just four batters in 29.1 innings in 2024, giving him almost all of the ingredients to become an impact starting pitcher. At this point, the only issue is durability, as in addition to the missed time in 2024, he has made just eleven starts over three years in college and he has never thrown more than 41 innings in a season. Some scouts are also turned off by his delivery, which includes a late arm and late jerk down the mound. The Mets are banking on the excellent combination of size, stuff, command, and release point, and are hoping that they can iron out the delivery a little bit to keep him on the mound consistently. That durability will be the difference in whether he ends up a starter or a reliever.

4-111: OF Eli Serrano III, North Carolina State {video}
Slot value: $656,400. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($41,100 above slot value).
My rank: #155. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #205.
Eli Serrano is an interesting one, and like Dohm, both the Mets and I like him better than the big publications. He jumped onto the scene with a nice freshman season at NC State (.292/.389/.470, 7 HR), then failed to take a step forward with almost the exact same numbers as a sophomore in 2024 (.286/.383/.433, 9 HR). However, while those numbers look underwhelming in a year of high offense around the league, the underlying metrics are very impressive. Serrano shows sneaky average raw power, and with his height (6'5") and projection he could grow into above average power pretty easily. At this point, he's more of a line drive hitter so that power doesn't really manifest itself in games, but he has the hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel to elevate more with pro instruction. He's also an excellent contact hitter who quietly ran one of the higher contact rates in this draft class, and in fact was one of just five players on the Baseball America 500 (out of 145 college hitters) to turn in a contact rate above 85% and a 90th percentile exit velocity above 105 MPH. The high contact rates mean that he puts the ball in play as often as anybody, and was one of just four college hitters on my draft board (out of 73) to keep both his strikeout rate and his walk rate below 10% apiece. For the most part, the Mets are buying the bat here with his potential to hit 15-20 home runs per season with high batting averages. The glove is more ordinary, as Serrano shows average defensive tools across the board. His most likely destination is left field, where his lack of speed and arm strength can be hidden a little more, especially if he slows down further with age. So far, he's hitting .185/.241/.333 with one home run and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games for Low A St. Lucie.

5-144: SS Trey Snyder, Liberty North HS [MO] {video}
Slot value: $476,200. Signing bonus: $1.32 million ($846,300 above slot value).
My rank: #167. MLB Pipeline: #155. Baseball America: #142.
The Mets' largest over slot bonus by far went to Trey Snyder, who has a chance to be the team's shortstop of the future if everything breaks right. Initially committed to Tennessee, it took roughly the slot value for the #64 pick to lure him to New York instead. Snyder is more about polish over tools, so the development plan should be more straightforward than not. Though he's not ultra projectable, he has a quick right handed swing with natural loft that should help him maximize his fringy raw power in games. He already has a long track record of hitting against strong competition, supported by a disciplined approach at the plate and good feel for the barrel. The upside here is probably 10-20 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which will be plenty at shortstop. Snyder shows great body control at shortstop to make all the plays that come to him, with quick feet to make adjustments and enough arm to make it work on the left side of the infield. He's more of an average runner and the arm is more good than great, so there is a chance he gets pushed to second or third base by a more explosive defender. There's no question that the Kansas City-area product can flat out play ball, so his ability to impact the baseball and maintain his athleticism will determine his ultimate impact at the big league level.

6-173: 1B Corey Collins, Georgia {video}
Slot value: $363,100. Signing bonus: $275,000 ($88,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #170. Baseball America: #182.
You can't research every player, so every year there has to be a cutoff and Corey Collins was one of those who just missed it for me in 2024. He represents one of the better senior signs in the country, giving the Mets close to a $100K haircut here in the sixth round while still bringing big league upside. A well-known prep catcher out of the Atlanta area in 2020, he ranked #122 on my draft board that year but wound up staying home to attend Georgia. He was more good than great as a hitter and ultimately failed to draw the same level of interest he had in high school, but broke out for a massive senior season in 2024 in which he slashed .354/.574/.772 with 20 home runs while batting in front of 2024 Golden Spikes Award winner and third overall pick Charlie Condon. Big and burly at a list 6'3", 235 pounds, he deploys his natural strength into true plus raw power that he tapped consistently in games in 2024. It's a really short, direct left handed swing that helped him simplify things at the plate and focus on jacking baseballs out over the right field wall. That approach continued to work for him against high level pitching in SEC play, where he hit .350/.538/.780 with 13 home runs in 29 games. In addition to the prodigious power, Collins has a discerning eye at the plate that helps him identify which pitches he can turn on while laying off the ones he can't. The approach is ahead of the pure bat to ball here, so it will be a challenge in the upper level's of pro ball against advanced pitchers who can execute quality pitches on the corners. While he has seen time behind the plate, his lack of agility has always made that a stretch and it's appeared less and less likely he would play there in pro ball. The fact that the Mets drafted him as a first baseman is a pretty big indication that they don't see a future at catcher, either. In that sense, he'll have to hit, and that seems likely. He has the upside of a 20+ home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages, which would certainly play in a platoon role. Beyond walking a lot, he also finished fourth in NCAA Division I with 28 hit by pitches and led the SEC by a massive margin – no other hitter in the conference was hit by more than 20. Together with the walks, he reached base without swinging the bat in 34.7% of his plate appearances this past season. Age is a downside, as he'll be 23 in October. He's played one game so far, walking and ironically stealing a base for Low A St. Lucie despite not having stolen a base at Georgia since 2021.

10-293: RHP Brendan Girton, Oklahoma {video}
Slot value: $184,300. Signing bonus: $122,500 ($61,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Brendan Girton represents another senior sign and gives the Mets a potential power reliever. Hailing from the tiny town of Gage in far northwestern Oklahoma, he spent three seasons at Texas Tech pitching to mixed results. He transferred to Oklahoma to pitch his senior season back in his home state, but after a very strong season opening start against Tennessee (4 IP, 1 ER, 9 K), he struggled with consistency and finished with an ERA over seven and nearly a walk per inning. Girton is a power pitcher, with a fastball sitting in the mid 90's and touching 98 in short stints. Beyond the velocity, the pitch plays up further with running and riding life from a low slot and nice extension. It's really one of the better fastballs you'll find this late in the draft. His power slider shows nice late bite and dives below bats when he's going good, but he's inconsistent with it and doesn't always execute it. Above all, the 6'1" righty has below average command that has made both of his pitches play down, and that right there will be the key to pro success. Girton lacks starter upside due to that command and his lack of a changeup, though he is sturdily built and should be durable enough to thrive in a full time relief role. If he gets the command together a little, he could move quickly.

11-323: 2B Nick Roselli, Binghamton {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Mets opened up day three with a hometown pick. Nick Roselli hails from Levittown on Long Island, where he attended Division Avenue High School and hit .619 as a senior. He spent three years at Binghamton, where he hit from day one and got better each year despite breaking his hamate bone on Opening Day 2024 and missing nearly two months. Undersized at 5'10", he uses a quick left handed swing to drive the ball with much more authority than you'd expect from a smaller guy. He's shown the ability to turn on the ball to the pull side while spraying hard line drives to all fields, though that power has not shown up with wood bats and he has slugged just .293 with two home runs in 64 games over his three seasons in summer wood bat leagues. He hasn't faced the strongest competition in the America East Conference, where he has shown very strong plate discipline and bat to ball, though that approach has carried over to his wood bat leagues. With average speed and a general lack of explosiveness, both his range and arm are best suited for second base in the long run, where he has strong feel for the position and should be an average defender. It would appear as a utility infield profile with the potential to show average offensive numbers across the board at peak, though being limited to second base and left field makes that a little tougher. Regardless, the Mets will love having Nick Roselli from Levittown in the lineup if he can push his way up there. He has shown pretty well so far, hitting .278/.409/.389 with a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio over six games at Low A St. Lucie.

14-413: RHP Tanner Witt, Texas {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($72,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Tanner Witt has been a known commodity not just to Texas scouts but to scouting directors for a long time now. A highly regarded two-way prep out of his Houston high school, Witt ranked #88 on my 2020 draft board and had draft interest as high as the first round, but was dead set on heading to Austin to play for the Longhorns. After a strong freshman season in 2021 and two strong starts to begin 2022, he seemed to be solidifying himself as a likely first round pick for the 2023 draft. However, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of that sophomore season, then did not look like himself in six abbreviated starts at the end of 2023. Still, he ranked #93 on my board that year and ranked as the top unsigned draft prospect returning to school in 2024. Unfortunately, health problems persisted into 2024 and he lasted just five short appearances before being shut down again. He's allegedly healthy now, having posted this video shortly before the draft (on his 22nd birthday no less), so the Mets will look to get him back to where he was from 2020-2022. So what was all the first round hype about? Witt's fastball sits in the low 90's, having touched 97 in the past, with huge riding action from a very high, over the top sot that counteracts the movement a little. His signature pitch is a big 12-6 curveball with tremendous depth, though it breaks so much that he doesn't always execute it where he wants it. There's a solid slider in there that he unveiled while at Texas, and his above average changeup rounds out a pretty complete arsenal. Witt has really filled out his 6'6" frame and now fully looks the part of a big league starting pitcher, with an easy, repeatable delivery that he shows great feel for. Previously, he showed an interesting double tap in his hand break in which he showed the ball to hitters before tapping it back into the glove, but watching the video linked a few sentences back it appears he has eliminated that. It also looks like he has dropped his arm slot a bit, so the extremely high release point may be no more. Witt's father, Kevin, played five sporadic seasons in the big leagues between 1998 and 2006 and the baseball IQ has clearly been passed onto Tanner, who has displayed an advanced understanding for pitching and a drive to improve. He was still figuring out how to command the baseball at the collegiate level when his injury woes started (remember, he was only fully healthy as an 18 year old freshman), and while all signs pointed to him figuring that out, it's now going to be a question mark. Durability is of course another major question mark as he has thrown just 31 innings over the past three seasons and hasn't really looked like himself since February 2022, but "himself" is a potential #2-#3 starter who could reach the majors in a hurry. The Mets have a really interesting development project in front of them and although he was a senior sign, he was young for the class and only turned 22 shortly before the draft.