RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina
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DoB: 7/26/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 5/2 K/BB in 3 IP.
In 2017, Gavin Williams was a well-known, if raw, prospect coming out of Fayetteville, North Carolina, one who stood 6'6" and was primarily known for running his fastball into the mid 90's. Three years later, he's more or less the same prospect. In his lone full season in 2019, he put up a 4.56 ERA and a 56/23 strikeout to walk ratio across 49.1 innings for ECU, then a finger injury limited him to just three innings as a junior in 2020. He's one of the more polarizing prospects in a class full of polarizing prospects, a classic projection project despite being a junior in college. Personally, I'm a fan and I'm buying into the upside.
Still standing 6'6", Williams has added a tick of velocity to his fastball since high school, now sitting comfortably in the mid 90's while consistently running it into the upper 90's and touching triple digits at times. He doesn't have to sell out to reach that velocity, either, with as strong of a right arm as you'll see in this class. The rest of his stuff, though, needs work. He has a big curveball that tends to be more than 20 miles per hour slower than his fastball, showing great shape and depth at times but rarely showing enough power to get big league hitters out. He'll need to focus on sharpening that pitch up, because pro hitters will be able to sit on his heater and have plenty of time to react to the big breaker. He also throws a pretty good changeup, one that can bump the upper 80's and show good fading action, giving him three pitches with potential.
Williams has much less of a track record than most college arms, having thrown a grand total of 68 innings for the Pirates. While he's not wild, his command is far from refined and his track record of throwing strikes is even more limited with 32 walks in that span. The good news is that Williams is actually pretty young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, which theoretically gives him more time to sharpen his game. There is a lot for him to work on, namely sharpening his command and offspeed pitches, but the fact that he hasn't actually been on the mound all that much might bode well for his ability to develop that in the future.
If Williams does get everything figured out, his upside is sky high. At a listed 6'6" and 240 pounds, he has the frame to start. There is significant reliever risk though, probably more likely than not, but the thought of him sitting close to 100 out of the bullpen is not a comforting thought for hitters. The building blocks are there – he throws extremely hard, his curveball has great top to bottom shape, and he does have feel for that changeup. Williams probably ends up getting drafted in the third or fourth round, especially with teams valuing track record, but his upside perhaps fits closer with most of the second round prospects.
Pitching in 2019
Monday, May 25, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Freddy Zamora
SS Freddy Zamora, Miami
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DoB: 11/1/1998. B/T: R/R.
2020 Stats: Did not play (injured).
Heading into the season, it looked like Miami could have three of the top fifty picks between pitchers Chris McMahon and Slade Cecconi and shortstop Freddy Zamora. McMahon and Cecconi have cemented themselves well within that range and potentially even in the first round, but Zamora blew out his knee in practice just days before the season began and never got to take the field. The shutdown therefore helps him a bit more than it hurts him, as he wouldn't have played anyways. Zamora is a glove-first type of player, but he has a good track record of hitting that includes a .303/.388/.412 line as a freshman and an improved .296/.393/.447 line with six home runs as a sophomore, walking more (55) than he struck out (45) in the process.
Zamora is a talented player on both sides of the ball, no doubt. As a hitter, he has never had any trouble making consistent contact from the right side, spraying line drives around the field with relative ease. He rarely strikes out, and he's patient enough to draw his share of walks as well. While he's not a power hitter, he jumped from one home run as a freshman to six home runs as a sophomore, making him more than just a slap hitter. His strong, athletic frame lends itself well to being a productive bat at the next level. Defensively, he's a no-doubt shortstop, showing the ability to not only stick there, but potentially be an above average, impact defender.
The glove takes a lot of pressure off the bat, as he could stick as a utility infielder even if his bat turns out to be a bit light. The fact that he didn't play at all in 2020 doesn't hurt his stock as much as it could have in a pandemic-less world, and in the four weeks of the season, a lot more pitchers took steps forward than hitters. One downside to his profile is makeup, as scouts have long questioned his work ethic and he was briefly suspended from the team late in the winter this year for "violating team rules." I've never met the guy, so it wouldn't be fair for me to knock him too much, but it's something to think about before potentially investing a million dollars and shipping him off to work through the grueling minor leagues.
Zamora comes with a pretty high floor, as his defense and baseline offensive ability makes him a great utility profile at minimum. If his power continues to develop as it has, he could end up a starting shortstop with 10-15 home runs and solid on-base percentages annually. It's not the world's most exciting profile, but with more shifting nowadays, it's good to be able to shift fringier defenders off shortstop over to third base, where more and more range is needed. Zamora's great defense at shortstop can allow a team to do that with a more fringy defender, and still be confident they'll get some offense. He fits anywhere from the late second round back into the fourth round.
Batting practice with a few teammates (he's #2)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 11/1/1998. B/T: R/R.
2020 Stats: Did not play (injured).
Heading into the season, it looked like Miami could have three of the top fifty picks between pitchers Chris McMahon and Slade Cecconi and shortstop Freddy Zamora. McMahon and Cecconi have cemented themselves well within that range and potentially even in the first round, but Zamora blew out his knee in practice just days before the season began and never got to take the field. The shutdown therefore helps him a bit more than it hurts him, as he wouldn't have played anyways. Zamora is a glove-first type of player, but he has a good track record of hitting that includes a .303/.388/.412 line as a freshman and an improved .296/.393/.447 line with six home runs as a sophomore, walking more (55) than he struck out (45) in the process.
Zamora is a talented player on both sides of the ball, no doubt. As a hitter, he has never had any trouble making consistent contact from the right side, spraying line drives around the field with relative ease. He rarely strikes out, and he's patient enough to draw his share of walks as well. While he's not a power hitter, he jumped from one home run as a freshman to six home runs as a sophomore, making him more than just a slap hitter. His strong, athletic frame lends itself well to being a productive bat at the next level. Defensively, he's a no-doubt shortstop, showing the ability to not only stick there, but potentially be an above average, impact defender.
The glove takes a lot of pressure off the bat, as he could stick as a utility infielder even if his bat turns out to be a bit light. The fact that he didn't play at all in 2020 doesn't hurt his stock as much as it could have in a pandemic-less world, and in the four weeks of the season, a lot more pitchers took steps forward than hitters. One downside to his profile is makeup, as scouts have long questioned his work ethic and he was briefly suspended from the team late in the winter this year for "violating team rules." I've never met the guy, so it wouldn't be fair for me to knock him too much, but it's something to think about before potentially investing a million dollars and shipping him off to work through the grueling minor leagues.
Zamora comes with a pretty high floor, as his defense and baseline offensive ability makes him a great utility profile at minimum. If his power continues to develop as it has, he could end up a starting shortstop with 10-15 home runs and solid on-base percentages annually. It's not the world's most exciting profile, but with more shifting nowadays, it's good to be able to shift fringier defenders off shortstop over to third base, where more and more range is needed. Zamora's great defense at shortstop can allow a team to do that with a more fringy defender, and still be confident they'll get some offense. He fits anywhere from the late second round back into the fourth round.
Batting practice with a few teammates (he's #2)
2020 Draft Profile: Enrique Bradfield
CF Enrique Bradfield, American Heritage HS [FL]
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DoB: 12/2/2001. B/T: L/L.
Commitment: Vanderbilt.
Enrique Bradfield is one of the premier leadoff-types in this high school class, and he's definitely in the right place to get a lot of exposure. For one, he plays in the Miami area, which is particularly strong this year with nearly ten high school players who could be drafted in the top five rounds this year if signable. Additionally, he's part of the best recruiting class outfield in the country, joining likely first round picks Pete Crow-Armstrong and Robert Hassell as Vanderbilt signees. While he may be competing with LA-area infielder Milan Tolentino and Georgia Tech infielder Luke Waddell for the least power among potential top 100 draftees, the rest of his game is very strong and he could intrigue a team that likes more old-school prospects.
The first thing everyone will notice about Bradfield is the speed. He has true plus-plus wheels that enable him to impact the game on both sides of the ball, perhaps more than any other player in the class. That's key, because he's a very skinny kid at a listed 155 pounds who won't hit for much power at all. He has a loose left handed swing that enables him to put the ball in play consistently, then use his wheels to do the rest. The approach can get very slap-heavy, as he has a tendency to just drop the bat to the ball and try to beat out choppy ground balls to the other side, but he has shown the ability to drive the ball with at least moderate authority to the gaps. Defensively, he's one of the best center fielders in the class, and his pure speed in addition to good instincts gives him perhaps the best defensive upside of any high school outfielders around.
Bradfield's ultimate projection comes down to how much extra base power he'll be able to hit for. Expecting more than a couple home runs here and there would be unrealistic, but in order to succeed at the next level, he'll need to prove he can drive the ball into the gaps consistently to best deploy his speed. He'll always be a threat for infield hits, but defenses get better and better as you progress towards the majors and it won't be like tormenting the high school infielders he's faced in South Florida. There aren't a lot of successful big leaguers with Bradfield's profile, with perhaps the most similar player being fellow Floridian Mallex Smith.
All of that said, I think Bradfield has a very good chance to reach the upper end of his projections. That probably means single digit home run totals even if they keep juicing the baseballs, but he could produce upwards of 30-40 combined doubles and triples annually with solid on-base percentages and lots of stolen bases. Combine that with great defense, and it's an old school, prototypical leadoff profile. Because the game has moved away from that type of player in recent years in addition to him being a potentially difficult sign away from Vanderbilt, he has a fairly wide draft variance, but his talent fits anywhere from rounds two through four.
Hitting on the showcase circuit, summer 2019
Opposite field line drive from 2020 game action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/2/2001. B/T: L/L.
Commitment: Vanderbilt.
Enrique Bradfield is one of the premier leadoff-types in this high school class, and he's definitely in the right place to get a lot of exposure. For one, he plays in the Miami area, which is particularly strong this year with nearly ten high school players who could be drafted in the top five rounds this year if signable. Additionally, he's part of the best recruiting class outfield in the country, joining likely first round picks Pete Crow-Armstrong and Robert Hassell as Vanderbilt signees. While he may be competing with LA-area infielder Milan Tolentino and Georgia Tech infielder Luke Waddell for the least power among potential top 100 draftees, the rest of his game is very strong and he could intrigue a team that likes more old-school prospects.
The first thing everyone will notice about Bradfield is the speed. He has true plus-plus wheels that enable him to impact the game on both sides of the ball, perhaps more than any other player in the class. That's key, because he's a very skinny kid at a listed 155 pounds who won't hit for much power at all. He has a loose left handed swing that enables him to put the ball in play consistently, then use his wheels to do the rest. The approach can get very slap-heavy, as he has a tendency to just drop the bat to the ball and try to beat out choppy ground balls to the other side, but he has shown the ability to drive the ball with at least moderate authority to the gaps. Defensively, he's one of the best center fielders in the class, and his pure speed in addition to good instincts gives him perhaps the best defensive upside of any high school outfielders around.
Bradfield's ultimate projection comes down to how much extra base power he'll be able to hit for. Expecting more than a couple home runs here and there would be unrealistic, but in order to succeed at the next level, he'll need to prove he can drive the ball into the gaps consistently to best deploy his speed. He'll always be a threat for infield hits, but defenses get better and better as you progress towards the majors and it won't be like tormenting the high school infielders he's faced in South Florida. There aren't a lot of successful big leaguers with Bradfield's profile, with perhaps the most similar player being fellow Floridian Mallex Smith.
All of that said, I think Bradfield has a very good chance to reach the upper end of his projections. That probably means single digit home run totals even if they keep juicing the baseballs, but he could produce upwards of 30-40 combined doubles and triples annually with solid on-base percentages and lots of stolen bases. Combine that with great defense, and it's an old school, prototypical leadoff profile. Because the game has moved away from that type of player in recent years in addition to him being a potentially difficult sign away from Vanderbilt, he has a fairly wide draft variance, but his talent fits anywhere from rounds two through four.
Hitting on the showcase circuit, summer 2019
Opposite field line drive from 2020 game action
2020 Draft Profile: Ian Seymour
LHP Ian Seymour, Virginia Tech
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/13/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 40/5 K/BB in 20.1 IP
Of course, I spent four years at Virginia Tech from 2016-2019, and in that time the highest drafted players we had were Packy Naughton (9th round, Reds, 2017), Andrew McDonald (9th round, Reds, 2018), Aaron McGarrity (15th round, Yankees, 2017), and Kerry Carpenter (19th round, Tigers, 2019). I enjoyed watching Naughton during my freshman and sophomore years, though he put up ERA's north of 6.00 in both seasons and has been much, much better in pro ball. In 2020, though I wasn't there to see it, the Hokies finally have a top three rounds draft prospect, as Worcester, MA native Ian Seymour broke out with a big Cape performance and a louder, if shorter, junior season. He put up decent number as a sophomore (3.97 ERA, 81/24 K/BB), though I didn't make it to as many games that year as I would have liked, then he came out and dominated on the Cape (2.48 ERA, 39/6 K/BB in 25.1 IP). Coming out in 2020, he was even better, putting up a 2.21 ERA and a 40/5 strikeout to walk ratio across just 20.1 innings, finishing off his VT career on a loud note with 14 strikeouts against Georgia Tech. I was planning on heading to Blacksburg to watch his next start against Miami, but that one never happened.
Seymour is one of those guys where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. He added a tick of velocity this spring and sat consistently in the low 90's, and also throws a slider and a changeup. The slider stands out more for its velocity than its movement, but it tunnels well with his fastball and has some nice two-plane bite. The changeup is easily his best pitch, coming in with great arm-side fade and missing a ton of bats both on the Cape and in NCAA play. Everything he throws plays up because of his funky left handed delivery, which helps him, hide the ball, disrupt timing, and get good angle on his pitches. Throw in above average command, and he's suddenly a very tough pitcher to square up.
In the past, there have been significant reliever questions with Seymour, as he's shorter for a pitcher at six feet tall, has that funky delivery, and didn't throw all that hard. The Cape performance and especially his spring performance have helped shed that "funky lefty" label and made him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. He'll still face some reliever questions until he sharpens up that slider, but they don't dominate the discussion anymore. There are a lot of similarities to Wake Forest lefty Jared Shuster here, including that they're both ACC lefties from Massachusetts, though Shuster throws a bit harder.
Seymour has quietly worked his way from fourth/fifth round discussions up into the second/third round. He has the upside of a #3/#4 starting pitcher who could fall back as a funky, fastball/changeup lefty reliever, and he's trending more quickly towards the former than the latter. His three pitch mix, combined with a delivery that makes it tough to pick the ball up and the ability to spot his pitches generally where he wants them, not to mention his handedness, makes him a very intriguing arm that a lot of teams could try to jump at. I'm still disappointed I didn't go see him as often as I could have during my senior/his sophomore year.
Cape Cod action
More Cape action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/13/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 40/5 K/BB in 20.1 IP
Of course, I spent four years at Virginia Tech from 2016-2019, and in that time the highest drafted players we had were Packy Naughton (9th round, Reds, 2017), Andrew McDonald (9th round, Reds, 2018), Aaron McGarrity (15th round, Yankees, 2017), and Kerry Carpenter (19th round, Tigers, 2019). I enjoyed watching Naughton during my freshman and sophomore years, though he put up ERA's north of 6.00 in both seasons and has been much, much better in pro ball. In 2020, though I wasn't there to see it, the Hokies finally have a top three rounds draft prospect, as Worcester, MA native Ian Seymour broke out with a big Cape performance and a louder, if shorter, junior season. He put up decent number as a sophomore (3.97 ERA, 81/24 K/BB), though I didn't make it to as many games that year as I would have liked, then he came out and dominated on the Cape (2.48 ERA, 39/6 K/BB in 25.1 IP). Coming out in 2020, he was even better, putting up a 2.21 ERA and a 40/5 strikeout to walk ratio across just 20.1 innings, finishing off his VT career on a loud note with 14 strikeouts against Georgia Tech. I was planning on heading to Blacksburg to watch his next start against Miami, but that one never happened.
Seymour is one of those guys where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. He added a tick of velocity this spring and sat consistently in the low 90's, and also throws a slider and a changeup. The slider stands out more for its velocity than its movement, but it tunnels well with his fastball and has some nice two-plane bite. The changeup is easily his best pitch, coming in with great arm-side fade and missing a ton of bats both on the Cape and in NCAA play. Everything he throws plays up because of his funky left handed delivery, which helps him, hide the ball, disrupt timing, and get good angle on his pitches. Throw in above average command, and he's suddenly a very tough pitcher to square up.
In the past, there have been significant reliever questions with Seymour, as he's shorter for a pitcher at six feet tall, has that funky delivery, and didn't throw all that hard. The Cape performance and especially his spring performance have helped shed that "funky lefty" label and made him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. He'll still face some reliever questions until he sharpens up that slider, but they don't dominate the discussion anymore. There are a lot of similarities to Wake Forest lefty Jared Shuster here, including that they're both ACC lefties from Massachusetts, though Shuster throws a bit harder.
Seymour has quietly worked his way from fourth/fifth round discussions up into the second/third round. He has the upside of a #3/#4 starting pitcher who could fall back as a funky, fastball/changeup lefty reliever, and he's trending more quickly towards the former than the latter. His three pitch mix, combined with a delivery that makes it tough to pick the ball up and the ability to spot his pitches generally where he wants them, not to mention his handedness, makes him a very intriguing arm that a lot of teams could try to jump at. I'm still disappointed I didn't go see him as often as I could have during my senior/his sophomore year.
Cape Cod action
More Cape action
Sunday, May 24, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Nick Yorke
SS Nick Yorke, Archbishop Mitty HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/2/2002. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Arizona.
Nick Yorke was trending up when the season shut down, and while high school hitters are among the toughest types of players to evaluate without seeing them in person, he's one of my favorite hitters in the draft. San Jose's Archbishop Mitty is one of the top programs in the San Francisco Bay Area, having produced current big leaguers Mitch Haniger (via Cal Poly) and Trevor Hildenberger (via Cal Berkeley), and though Yorke is a better prospect than either were coming out of high school. He's part of an exceptional California prep class and is likely the top hitter in the Bay Area.
Yorke's top tool is definitely the hit tool. I love his right handed swing, in which he uses his very quick hands to get the bat through the zone in a hurry and create some leverage while doing so. There's a slight bat wrap before the swing which can make him just a little bit long to the ball, but he has had no problem making contact against advanced pitching and pro coaching should be able to iron that out pretty easily. While he's not a huge power threat at a listed six feet tall, he was reportedly hitting the ball with more authority this spring and his swing is definitely conducive to that if he wants it to be. Either way, the hit tool grades out as above average and could end up plus down the road. Defensively, it's not quite known where Yorke will end up, as he's a steady defender at shortstop who could be able to stick there if he can get a bit more physical. He's an average runner who is more of an instincts-based defender, and it's hard to get a read on his arm because he's been recovering from shoulder problems. So in reality, he could end up pretty much anywhere in the infield aside from first base.
If Yorke can stick at shortstop, that's an excellent overall profile. His bat projects for 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, perhaps closer to 20 home runs if we want to be optimistic and they keep juicing the baseballs, and that's true impact offense from a shortstop. If he has to move to second or third base, it could still profile as a regular. I'm definitely on the optimistic side when it comes to his bat, and I see it as potentially even a second round profile if he can stick at shortstop. As with most high schoolers, signability clouds his likely draft range, but most teams probably see him as a third to fourth round talent. If he chooses to head to Arizona, three years of production in the Pac 12 could make him a high pick in 2023.
Hitting and fielding over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/2/2002. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Arizona.
Nick Yorke was trending up when the season shut down, and while high school hitters are among the toughest types of players to evaluate without seeing them in person, he's one of my favorite hitters in the draft. San Jose's Archbishop Mitty is one of the top programs in the San Francisco Bay Area, having produced current big leaguers Mitch Haniger (via Cal Poly) and Trevor Hildenberger (via Cal Berkeley), and though Yorke is a better prospect than either were coming out of high school. He's part of an exceptional California prep class and is likely the top hitter in the Bay Area.
Yorke's top tool is definitely the hit tool. I love his right handed swing, in which he uses his very quick hands to get the bat through the zone in a hurry and create some leverage while doing so. There's a slight bat wrap before the swing which can make him just a little bit long to the ball, but he has had no problem making contact against advanced pitching and pro coaching should be able to iron that out pretty easily. While he's not a huge power threat at a listed six feet tall, he was reportedly hitting the ball with more authority this spring and his swing is definitely conducive to that if he wants it to be. Either way, the hit tool grades out as above average and could end up plus down the road. Defensively, it's not quite known where Yorke will end up, as he's a steady defender at shortstop who could be able to stick there if he can get a bit more physical. He's an average runner who is more of an instincts-based defender, and it's hard to get a read on his arm because he's been recovering from shoulder problems. So in reality, he could end up pretty much anywhere in the infield aside from first base.
If Yorke can stick at shortstop, that's an excellent overall profile. His bat projects for 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, perhaps closer to 20 home runs if we want to be optimistic and they keep juicing the baseballs, and that's true impact offense from a shortstop. If he has to move to second or third base, it could still profile as a regular. I'm definitely on the optimistic side when it comes to his bat, and I see it as potentially even a second round profile if he can stick at shortstop. As with most high schoolers, signability clouds his likely draft range, but most teams probably see him as a third to fourth round talent. If he chooses to head to Arizona, three years of production in the Pac 12 could make him a high pick in 2023.
Hitting and fielding over the summer
2020 Draft Profile: Cade Horton
RHP/SS Cade Horton, Norman HS [OK]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/20/2001. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Oklahoma.
Few players in this year's draft class have more options ahead of them than Cade Horton. A standout two-way player, he's a pro prospect as both a hitter and a pitcher, drawing significant interest for both his bat and his arm. As a high schooler, he also has the option to spurn going pro and head across town to the University of Oklahoma, where he'll not only get the chance to play both ways on the Sooners baseball team, but try out for quarterback as well. The last time a pro baseball prospect got to go play quarterback at Oklahoma, Kyler Murray was drafted ninth overall by the Oakland A's and first overall by the Arizona Cardinals, though Horton isn't quite in that prospect tier.
Personally, I prefer Horton a little bit as a pitcher. His power right arm, which landed him the chance to play quarterback for that powerhouse Oklahoma Sooner program, can pump fastballs into the mid 90's and typically sits in the low 90's. He brings a good slider with solid spin and two-plane break, which could be a very good pitch if he adds some power to it. There's also a changeup there, one which can look good at its best. His command is about where it should be for a player his age, and with a durable 6'2" frame, he has what it takes to start. However, probably owing to his split focus between hitting, pitching, and quarterbacking, he isn't the most consistent on the mound, and his velocity in particular has a tendency to dip a bit as he wears out.
As a hitter, he's power over hit, generating above average raw power from the right side. However, his bat path isn't the most efficient in somewhat of a long to it, short through it fashion. That can have a two-fold effect in limiting his power during games as well as causing swing and miss issues, so he'd need to have some significant mechanical cleanup to succeed as a hitter in pro ball. With his natural athleticism and the quickness in his hands, he does have pretty good upside there. That offensive upside looks better when you pair it with his defense, with the chance to stick at shortstop despite average speed. Moving to third base would put more pressure on his bat, but his offensive upside does profile well there if he can reach it.
Regardless of whether Horton ends up a hitter or a pitcher down the road (assuming he does not end up a quarterback), focusing on one thing should do wonders for him. The natural athleticism is clearly there and he has quite a few building blocks on both sides of the ball, perhaps a few more on the mound, though he's clearly raw in his all-around game. Horton is also a little old for the class with an August birthday, which can tend to matter in the eyes of evaluators. He'll probably be a very tough sign, so projecting his draft position is probably useless. He has the talent to go as high as the second round, though a high asking price could either push him lower in the draft or, more likely, out of the draft entirely. Three years of refinement at Oklahoma could do him wonders and he could follow another two-way Oklahoma prep prospect and current Sooner Cade Cavalli to first round discussions three years from now. Or he could follow Kyler Murray to the NFL, but that one requires a bit more optimism because he isn't quite the football prospect Murray was in high school.
Pitching summer of 2018
Hitting and pitching, summer of 2019
Hitting summer of 2019
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/20/2001. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Oklahoma.
Few players in this year's draft class have more options ahead of them than Cade Horton. A standout two-way player, he's a pro prospect as both a hitter and a pitcher, drawing significant interest for both his bat and his arm. As a high schooler, he also has the option to spurn going pro and head across town to the University of Oklahoma, where he'll not only get the chance to play both ways on the Sooners baseball team, but try out for quarterback as well. The last time a pro baseball prospect got to go play quarterback at Oklahoma, Kyler Murray was drafted ninth overall by the Oakland A's and first overall by the Arizona Cardinals, though Horton isn't quite in that prospect tier.
Personally, I prefer Horton a little bit as a pitcher. His power right arm, which landed him the chance to play quarterback for that powerhouse Oklahoma Sooner program, can pump fastballs into the mid 90's and typically sits in the low 90's. He brings a good slider with solid spin and two-plane break, which could be a very good pitch if he adds some power to it. There's also a changeup there, one which can look good at its best. His command is about where it should be for a player his age, and with a durable 6'2" frame, he has what it takes to start. However, probably owing to his split focus between hitting, pitching, and quarterbacking, he isn't the most consistent on the mound, and his velocity in particular has a tendency to dip a bit as he wears out.
As a hitter, he's power over hit, generating above average raw power from the right side. However, his bat path isn't the most efficient in somewhat of a long to it, short through it fashion. That can have a two-fold effect in limiting his power during games as well as causing swing and miss issues, so he'd need to have some significant mechanical cleanup to succeed as a hitter in pro ball. With his natural athleticism and the quickness in his hands, he does have pretty good upside there. That offensive upside looks better when you pair it with his defense, with the chance to stick at shortstop despite average speed. Moving to third base would put more pressure on his bat, but his offensive upside does profile well there if he can reach it.
Regardless of whether Horton ends up a hitter or a pitcher down the road (assuming he does not end up a quarterback), focusing on one thing should do wonders for him. The natural athleticism is clearly there and he has quite a few building blocks on both sides of the ball, perhaps a few more on the mound, though he's clearly raw in his all-around game. Horton is also a little old for the class with an August birthday, which can tend to matter in the eyes of evaluators. He'll probably be a very tough sign, so projecting his draft position is probably useless. He has the talent to go as high as the second round, though a high asking price could either push him lower in the draft or, more likely, out of the draft entirely. Three years of refinement at Oklahoma could do him wonders and he could follow another two-way Oklahoma prep prospect and current Sooner Cade Cavalli to first round discussions three years from now. Or he could follow Kyler Murray to the NFL, but that one requires a bit more optimism because he isn't quite the football prospect Murray was in high school.
Pitching summer of 2018
Hitting and pitching, summer of 2019
Hitting summer of 2019
Friday, May 22, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Tommy Mace
RHP Tommy Mace, Florida
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 11/11/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26/5 K/BB in 27 IP
Tommy Mace is an interesting prospect with a combination of track record and projectability. He was a rail-thin, 6'6" prep arm coming out of Sunlake High School in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, and the immense projectability in his frame led to some top five round conversations. However, his high asking price sent him north to Gainesville, and three years later, he remains somewhat of a similar prospect. Jumping into the rotation as a sophomore in 2019, he put up a 5.32 ERA and a 74/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings against Florida's tough SEC schedule, showing durability and a solid baseline of stuff but also that he wasn't quite there yet. The results were much better against Florida's non-conference schedule in 2020, with a 1.67 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 27 innings (including a very strong start against a very strong Miami lineup), but scouts are still waiting on the stuff to leap forward and he remains a fairly divisive prospect.
Coming out of high school, evaluators excitedly projected velocity gains on Mace's low 90's fastball. Three years later, he has been able to run it up to 96 at times, but it's still in that same low 90's range more often than not. He throws a pretty good cutter/slider that keeps hitters off his fastball and can function as his out pitch, and his changeup gives him a third reliable offering. His command is generally pretty good, something you definitely like to see from someone that tall, and it has helped him be generally successful in the SEC.
Mace offers an interesting conundrum as a very atypical projection arm. Most other projection guys that he will be compared to are high schoolers that are three years younger, but Mace's extra experience also gives him a bit of a track record to run on. There's still hope that he could add a tick or two to his fastball since he doesn't turn 22 until the offseason, but you could much more easily bet on an 18 year old to do the same thing. Scouts are on one hand pleased with his strike throwing and the numbers he put up in 2020, but on the other hand a bit frustrated that his stuff remains average as a whole.
I think he's shifted away from a boom/bust profile and settled more in the middle, looking like a back-end starter if he can make a couple of incremental improvements in his offspeed stuff. As a reliever, he could conceivably take a step forward and utilize a mid 90's fastball/hard cutter combination, which lowers some of the risk here. He probably fits in the second or third round come draft day.
2020 start vs Miami
2019 start vs Mississippi State
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DoB: 11/11/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26/5 K/BB in 27 IP
Tommy Mace is an interesting prospect with a combination of track record and projectability. He was a rail-thin, 6'6" prep arm coming out of Sunlake High School in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, and the immense projectability in his frame led to some top five round conversations. However, his high asking price sent him north to Gainesville, and three years later, he remains somewhat of a similar prospect. Jumping into the rotation as a sophomore in 2019, he put up a 5.32 ERA and a 74/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings against Florida's tough SEC schedule, showing durability and a solid baseline of stuff but also that he wasn't quite there yet. The results were much better against Florida's non-conference schedule in 2020, with a 1.67 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 27 innings (including a very strong start against a very strong Miami lineup), but scouts are still waiting on the stuff to leap forward and he remains a fairly divisive prospect.
Coming out of high school, evaluators excitedly projected velocity gains on Mace's low 90's fastball. Three years later, he has been able to run it up to 96 at times, but it's still in that same low 90's range more often than not. He throws a pretty good cutter/slider that keeps hitters off his fastball and can function as his out pitch, and his changeup gives him a third reliable offering. His command is generally pretty good, something you definitely like to see from someone that tall, and it has helped him be generally successful in the SEC.
Mace offers an interesting conundrum as a very atypical projection arm. Most other projection guys that he will be compared to are high schoolers that are three years younger, but Mace's extra experience also gives him a bit of a track record to run on. There's still hope that he could add a tick or two to his fastball since he doesn't turn 22 until the offseason, but you could much more easily bet on an 18 year old to do the same thing. Scouts are on one hand pleased with his strike throwing and the numbers he put up in 2020, but on the other hand a bit frustrated that his stuff remains average as a whole.
I think he's shifted away from a boom/bust profile and settled more in the middle, looking like a back-end starter if he can make a couple of incremental improvements in his offspeed stuff. As a reliever, he could conceivably take a step forward and utilize a mid 90's fastball/hard cutter combination, which lowers some of the risk here. He probably fits in the second or third round come draft day.
2020 start vs Miami
2019 start vs Mississippi State
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