Reviewing the Toronto Blue Jays Farm System

Over the past few years, the Blue Jays have transformed their farm system from more or less average to one of the best in the game by simply not having many busts. They have had a ton of guys break out over the past few seasons, and of course, none bigger than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the best pure bat in recent memory. Vladimir Guerrero, Craig Biggio, Dante Bichette, and Jeff Conine all have kids in this system, giving the system the best bloodlines in baseball. There is more hitting talent than pitching talent here, but they're definitely not short on arms and Blue Jays fans have plenty of reasons to be excited.

Affiliates: AAA Buffalo Bisons, AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats, High A Dunedin Blue Jays, Class A Lansing Lugnuts, Short Season Vancouver Canadians, rookie level Bluefield Blue Jays, and complex level GCL and DSL Blue Jays

The Headliner: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

19 year old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (you might have heard of his father) is the best prospect in baseball, and unless you are absolutely enamored with Fernando Tatis Jr.'s upside, it's not really that close. Guerrero burst onto the scene in 2017 by slashing .323/.425/.485 with more walks than strikeouts in Class A and High A as just an 18 year old, then established himself as the best prospect in all of baseball by slashing .381/.437/.636 with 20 home runs and a 38/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 games, mostly at AA New Hampshire and AAA Buffalo, in 2018. Those are crazy numbers regardless of the context, but Guerrero was a 19 year old in the highest levels of the minors and showed elite contact, elite power, and elite plate discipline all along. This is a true middle of the order bat, one that could produce 30-40 home runs per season with on-base percentages over .400; those are MVP numbers. Defensively, he's mediocre at third base but has worked hard to remain at the position, and he could be adequate there in the long run with a little luck. However, if he has to move to first base or back to the outfield, he is such a gifted hitter that it won't be a problem. Guerrero, who turns 20 in March, will likely spend the first few weeks of the 2019 season "working on his defense" (i.e. postponing his free agency by a year) but once he is called up towards the end of April, he'll be the frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year Award.

High Minors Hitters: C Danny Jansen, C Reese McGuire, OF Anthony Alford, 1B Rowdy Tellez, SS Bo Bichette, 2B Cavan Biggio, and SS Santiago Espinal

Take away Guerrero, the best prospect in baseball, and the Blue Jays are still very deep in the upper minors with plenty of potential bats that could be anywhere from usable to impactful. 23 year old Danny Jansen is one of the top catching prospects in the game, following up his breakout 2017 by slashing .275/.390/.473 with 12 home runs and a 49/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AAA Buffalo, then slashing .247/.347/.432 with three home runs in a 31 game stint in the majors. He's average defensively, but with his great plate discipline and ability to find the barrel regularly, he should be able to put it together and be a full-time starting catcher as soon as this season. In fact, if the Blue Jays don't make any moves before Opening Day, there won't be much competition for the starting catcher's spot come the beginning of the season, and Jansen could win it outright. He won't be a middle of the order hitter, but he should still be a net-positive in the lineup and that's plenty for a catcher. 23 year old Reese McGuire, the first round pick (14th overall) from the same 2013 draft that produced Jansen in the 16th round, is Jansen's primary competition behind the plate after slashing .233/.312/.339 with seven home runs and a 77/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games at Buffalo, followed by a .290/.333/.581 line with a pair of home runs in 14 major league games. McGuire is clearly the superior defender, but his bat is also clearly behind Jansen's and he looks primed for the back-up role. Together, he and Jansen will make a good tandem behind the plate in the classic bat-first starter, glove-first backup mold. Out in the outfield, 24 year old Anthony Alford has seen his development stall in the upper levels, and he slashed .238/.314/.339 with five home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 120/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Dunedin and Buffalo, also slashing .105/.190/.105 in 13 major league games. He's a speedy center fielder whose defense has kept him afloat in this stacked system, and when his bat is going, he looks like a future starter. However, that bat has been very inconsistent as he has lost control of the strike zone from time to time, and at this point he looks more like a competent fourth outfielder than a future leadoff man. However, when he's going right, he can still be a very valuable player for the Blue Jays and string together time in the starting lineup here and there. 23 year old Rowdy Tellez, the 30th round pick from that 2013 draft that produced Jansen and McGuire, slashed .270/.340/.425 with 13 home runs and a 74/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at Buffalo, then got hot in his first taste of major league action and slashed .314/.329/.614 with four home runs in 23 games for the Blue Jays. He's a big guy at 6'4" who hits for good power and can get the bat on the ball consistently, though as a first baseman with mediocre defense, he'll have to continue to hit to earn playing time in the majors. 2019 will be the year we find out whether he can provide the requisite big numbers for the position, though to me, he looks more like a platoon bat. 20 year old Bo Bichette, the son of Dante Bichette, followed up his huge 2017 (.362/.423/.565, 14 HR, 22 SB) with another big 2018, slashing .286/.343/.453 with eleven home runs, 32 stolen bases, and a 101/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 143 games at AA New Hampshire, playing the whole season at 20 years old. He's a second baseman with a great bat, one that should produce high batting averages in the majors while hitting at least 15-20 home runs and 30-40 doubles per season. He has fantastic bat control and can find the barrel as consistently as anybody, enabling him to employ a big swing and maximize what power he has in his six foot frame. Defensively, there's a chance he could stick at shortstop, though he's just alright there and might be able to provide more value at a different position. 23 year old Cavan Biggio, son of Craig Biggio, had a breakout year this year and slashed .252/.388/.499 with 26 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 148/100 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at New Hampshire. Biggio is a power hitter with an extremely patient approach that allows him to draw tons of walks, but which also leads to a fair amount of strikeouts. If the strikeouts turn out to be a problem at the next level, he might end up just a utility infielder, but if he can keep control of the strike zone, he profiles as an offensive-minded second baseman who could pop 20 home runs per season and draw enough walks to give him more than respectable on-base percentages, which adds up to a very valuable player. Lastly, 24 year old Santiago Espinal, acquired from the Red Sox for Steve Pearce, slashed .297/.356/.444 with ten home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 67/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games between High A and AA. He's a little bit old for a prospect who just made it out of High A, but he brings a good glove at shortstop and backs it up with a line drive bat and an advanced approach at the plate. He provides enough value on defense that there isn't too much pressure on his bat, and the fact that he could profile as a useful hitter in the major leagues makes him a prospect worth tracking. We'll have to see how he holds up over a full season in the upper minors but he could be a strong utility infielder or a fringe-average starting shortstop.

Low and Mid Minors Hitters: SS Kevin Smith, SS Logan Warmoth, OF Griffin Conine, SS Ronny Brito, SS Jordan Groshans, OF Cal Stevenson, and SS Orelvis Martinez

Lower in the minors, the Blue Jays don't quite have impact prospects like Guerrero and Bichette, but there is still some tremendous upside when you get down to the very bottom of the system. They do, though, have a ton of prospects who could potentially play shortstop (joining Bo Bichette and Santiago Espinal from the previous section), and that's one of the hardest positions to check off in a system. Up in the middle of the system, 22 year old Kevin Smith represents the best in the pack after slashing .302/.358/.528 with 25 home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 121/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin. Most of the production came at the lower level (.355/.407/.639) but he still held his own at the higher level (.274/.332/.468), and that he hit this well at all is a welcome sign for the Blue Jays. Toronto took him in the fourth round out of Maryland in 2017, where he posted just a .323 on-base percentage as a junior and struck out in over 20% of his plate appearances, showing raw power in batting practice but struggling to prove he could be more than a one-trick pony with the bat. He still doesn't draw a ton of walks and he takes his fair share of strikeouts, but he has done a much better job of getting to his power in pro ball and he pushed his on-base percentage up to .358. Defensively, he's pretty good at shortstop and may be able to stick there, taking even more pressure off his bat and giving him a real chance to be a long term starter. To do that, of course, he'll have to continue to manage the strike zone as well as he has and continue to make adjustments. Meanwhile, 23 year old Logan Warmoth, the Jays' first round pick (22nd overall) in that same 2017 draft, has had the opposite experience in pro ball, seeing his great college numbers (.336/.404/.554 as a junior at UNC) drop significantly in the minors. In 2018, he slashed .249/.330/.317 with just one home run and a 73/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, mostly at Dunedin, continuing to put the bat on the ball at a decent clip and get on base but seeing his power completely evaporate. I wasn't a big fan of the pick at the time and now my worries about his bat are proving to be warranted, though finding the barrel a bit more in 2019 could turn his fortunes around. He's still a competent shortstop who would be an above average defender if moved to second base, so the defense does buy the bat some slack, but he does need to start hitting soon if he wants to remain relevant in this system. 21 year old Griffin Conine (son of Jeff Conine) had a shot at being a first round pick out of Duke in 2018, but his plate discipline fell apart in the spring and he slid to the Blue Jays in the second round (52nd overall), after which he slashed .243/.314/.430 with seven home runs and a 65/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, mostly at short season Vancouver. He has a ton of raw power from a very strong frame at 6'1", but his long swing and tendency to sell out for the power hurts his ability to get to it consistently. The Blue Jays will work with him to shorten that swing and ease up on the selling out, and if they can successfully help him improve in those areas without sacrificing power, Conine could be a legitimate impact bat. I was a big fan of his before his approach fell apart in the spring, so I really hope he can get back to where he was and potentially provide 30 homer power with solidly decent defense in right field. 19 year old Ronny Brito was acquired from the Dodgers for Russell Martin this offseason, having slashed .295/.359/.496 with 11 home runs and a 78/23 strikeout to walk ratio between complex ball and rookie ball in 2018. He's a slick fielding shortstop whose bat is supposedly behind his glove, but the power outburst in the Pioneer League showed that his upside is more than just that of a utility infielder. A successful transition to full season ball as a 20 year old in 2019 could sent Brito shooting up prospect lists, as good defensive shortstops who can hit are a rarity (except in this system, apparently). 19 year old Jordan Groshans was a first round pick (12th overall) out of a Houston area high school in 2018, and he slashed .296/.353/.446 with five home runs and a 37/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games between complex ball and rookie level Bluefield. He was much better in complex ball (.331/.390/.500) than in rookie ball (.182/.229/.273), but a big showing in the Appalachian League playoffs would have pushed that rookie ball slash line up to a much more respectable .268/.333/.411. Groshans is a legitimate hitter with power, some plate discipline, and the ability to barrel the ball up consistently, and when you combine that with the potential (although not guarantee) to stick at shortstop, he's a complete player. Like Brito, he could shoot up prospect lists with a strong transition to full season ball in 2019. 22 year old Cal Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona in 2018 and likely maxes out as a fourth outfielder, but he had such a great debut that he deserves a writeup. After signing, Stevenson slashed .369/.511/.523 with two home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a fantastic 24/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games between complex ball and Bluefield, showing a tremendous feel for the strike zone as well as the ability to get the bat on the ball virtually whenever he wanted to. At a skinny 5'10", he lacks power and will likely never develop much, but anybody who can get on base at a .500 rate in the minors (and steal 21 bases in 22 tries) is worth watching regardless of the power production, so 2019 will be very interesting when he plays against more age-appropriate competition. Lastly, 17 year old Orelvis Martinez has not played professionally yet, but he signed for $3.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in July and has tremendous upside. He has a quick, powerful swing that will need some tweaking, and his advanced feel for hitting could come together with that power potential to make him an all-around impact bat. Defensively, he's pretty good at shortstop but even if he has to move to third base eventually, he should be a net-positive on defense. Overall, he's completely unproven and has a lot of work to do to reach his ceiling, but at 17 years old he'll have plenty of time to do so and could be an all-around impact player if it all works out.

High Minors Pitchers: RHP Sean Reid-Foley, RHP David Paulino, RHP Trent Thornton, RHP T.J. Zeuch, RHP Hector Perez, and RHP Elvis Luciano

The Blue Jays aren't as deep in pitching as they are in hitting, but there are still plenty of arms near the top of the minors, some of which could turn into very productive, long-term starters. 23 year old Sean Reid-Foley is a 6'3" right hander out of Jacksonville who went 12-5 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 150/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings between AA New Hampshire and AAA Buffalo, and who then posted a 5.13 ERA and a 42/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 major league innings. He's a classic mid-rotation starter with a low to mid 90's fastball and a wide arrange of secondary pitches, none of which stick out as plus but all of which he mixes effectively. The command is fairly average, but when he's mixing his stuff well, SRF is tough to square up and he could be a very solid #3 or #4 starter in Toronto. 25 year old David Paulino has already made appearances for the Astros in 2016 and 2017, as well as the Blue Jays in 2018, but with just 42.2 total major league innings (5.48 ERA, 42/12 K/BB), he still qualifies as a prospect. His development has been choppy to say the least, as he has missed significant time with injuries throughout his career and was hit with an 80 game PED suspension in 2017, and in his seven minor league starts in 2018 he posted a 4.67 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 33/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings between AAA and complex ball rehab. He's a massive, 6'7" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball, a very good set of secondaries that produce swings and misses, and even pretty good command that helps it all play up. However, with all the injuries and the suspension, he hasn't been able to stay on the mound long enough to get any real traction (in eight pro seasons, he has never thrown more than 90 innings in one season), so there's a lot more risk associated with him than you'd expect given his profile. Paulino could be anything from a solid #3 starter to a middle reliever. 25 year old Trent Thornton is another former Astro, coming over this offseason for Aledmys Diaz, and he posted a 4.42 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 122/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at AAA. He sits in the mid 90's and adds a pair of swing and miss breaking balls, and with his good command, he should be major league ready on Opening Day. However, his changeup has never really materialized, making the rest of his stuff play down a hair, so the Blue Jays hope that access to new pitching coaches will help him get over the hump and go from back-end starter type to legitimate #3 or #4 guy. 23 year old T.J. Zeuch was the Blue Jays' first round pick (21st overall) in 2016 out of Pittsburgh, and he posted a 3.17 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 156.1 innings at High A Dunedin and New Hampshire in 2018. He's 6'7" and sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a full array of secondaries and making it work so far despite a low strikeout rate. Overall, I'm a bit worried about his transition to AAA and the majors in 2019 because the secondaries just haven't proven to be anything special yet, even with the slider standing out a bit as a go-to pitch. His ability to throw more than 150 innings in 2018 was a plus, but there's some reliever risk here if he can't take a step forward with either his secondaries or his average command. If he does take that step forward, he could be a #3 starter. 22 year old Hector Perez came over from the Astros with Paulino in the Roberto Osuna trade, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 133/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 innings between High A and AA in the two systems. He's a fireballer with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a solid set of breaking balls, generating tons of swings and misses despite mediocre command. That command is what has held him back so far, as his stuff is good enough to dominate upper-level hitters right now and is just a small step forward in consistency from dominating major leaguers as well. If he can learn to have even average command in addition to getting a little more consistent with his stuff, he's a potential #2 or #3 starter, but without adjustments he likely profiles as a hard-throwing reliever. Lastly, 18 year old Elvis Luciano has not pitched above rookie ball, but he's included in this section (rather than the low-minors section) for a very interesting reason. The Blue Jays selected him in the Rule 5 Draft, meaning that unless the Jays want to send him back to Kansas City, Luciano will have to break camp with the major league team and last the entire season in the majors. That will be a tough task for a teenager who just posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings at the Royals' rookie ball affiliates, as he will completely bypass full season ball in such a way that would make Juan Soto proud. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, but the rest of his game is raw (as you'd expect from an 18 year old) and he'll probably get hit hard in the majors. If he does stick, then the Blue Jays deserve a big pat on the back for adding a potential mid-rotation starter. Additionally, if he breaks camp with the team on Opening Day (lest he'd be sent back to the Royals), Luciano would not only become the first player born in 2000 to play in the majors, he'd beat out every 1999 player as well assuming that his new teammate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., spends the first few weeks of the season in AAA "working on his defense."

Low Minors Pitchers: RHP Nate Pearson, RHP Eric Pardinho, RHP Adam Kloffenstein, RHP Sean Wymer, and RHP/1B Andy McGuire

The Blue Jays aren't nearly as deep in low minors pitchers as they are in low minors hitters or even upper minors pitchers, though two arguably the two most exciting arms in the system are in this demographic. 22 year old Nate Pearson was a first round pick (28th overall) in 2017 out of a Florida junior college, though he missed the beginning of 2018 with back problems then fractured his forearm in his first start back, ending his season with two earned runs in 1.2 innings (10.80 ERA) at High A. Pearson is a fireballing 6'6" right hander with an upper 90's fastball and a good slider, though the rest of his game needs work. His control comes and goes and he hasn't developed a consistent changeup yet, and the lost season in 2018 didn't help. However, with his top tier arm strength, it's easy to envision him piling up the strikeouts as he moves through the minors just on his two main pitches, and developing either his command or his changeup could make him a mid-rotation starter; developing both could make him a #2 or even an ace. Even if he remains the pitcher he is today, Pearson has a high floor as a hard throwing reliever whose fastball could sit right around 100 in short stints, which could make him a set-up man or even a closer. We'll see what strides he makes in 2019. 18 year old Eric Pardinho burst onto the scene in rookie ball this season, posting a 2.88 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 64/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings with rookie level Bluefield. Essentially just a kid, he's listed at 5'10" and just 155 pounds, but the Brazilian righty might be the best prospect ever to come out of his country now that he throws in the low 90's and adds a great curveball, a developing changeup, and better command than you would expect from someone his age and with his background. This enabled him to dominate the Appalachian League at just 17 years old, and he'll spend the whole 2019 season at just 18 years old as he transitions to full season ball and really shows us what he's made of. It's very early, but Pardinho (who was born in 2001 if you want to feel old) has ace upside. 18 year old Adam Kloffenstein was actually high school teammates with Jordan Groshans (see low minors hitters section), and now they're teammates in the Blue Jays system after Groshans was drafted 12th overall and Kloffenstein came off the board in the third round (88th overall) from Magnolia High School near Houston. Kloffenstein is a 6'5" righty who threw just two innings in complex ball this year (no earned runs, one hit, two walks, four strikeouts), bringing a low 90's fastball and a full array of secondaries to the table, all of which he commands reasonably well. He's obviously young and unproven, but Kloffenstein has a classic mid-rotation starter's profile if he can sharpen his command just a bit more, and for a high school pitcher, he really doesn't have too many adjustments he needs to make. Expect him to be a quick riser despite his age (he turns 19 at the end of the 2019 season). 21 year old Sean Wymer was the Jays' fourth round pick out of TCU in 2018 (ironically where Kloffenstein was committed to pitch collegiately), and he posted a respectable 4.84 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 34/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.1 innings at short season Vancouver after he signed. Wymer is a 6'1" righty whose command is ahead of his stuff, working in the low 90's and adding a full array of secondary pitches, none of which stand out. He didn't really being starting until his junior year at TCU, working as a reliever his first two seasons, so I think it will be interesting how pro coaching helps him continue that transition from reliever to starter. If it goes well, he could be a #4 or #5 guy, and he could still be useful as a long reliever if he is pushed back to the bullpen. Lastly, 24 year old Andy McGuire played in the same high school baseball program as me in 2012 and 2013, and he earns mention here for that as well as for his uniqueness as a prospect. McGuire was actually considered a second round talent for the 2013 draft, but he attended Texas instead and had a roller coaster of a career that saw him switch from infielder to pitcher, transfer out, transfer back in, sit out a season, get cut from the team, and finally make it back onto the roster as a fifth year senior in 2018. He played so well in 2018 that he earned a 28th round selection from the Blue Jays, who sent him to Bluefield as a two-way player. He slashed .275/.431/.375 with an 11/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games as a hitter, and he also posted a 3.09 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 22/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings as a pitcher. Having turned 24 during the offseason, he's certainly not young as far as prospects go, but it's always interesting to have a two-way player in the minors and he has the upside as either a middle reliever on the mound or a utility/bench bat.

Reviewing the Houston Astros Farm System

The Astros' player development has been something else, having produced a homegrown, World Series-winning core of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Dallas Keuchel, and Lance McCullers. Even with all of those graduations, they still have a lot of depth down on the farm, led by two super prospects in Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley. It's a pitching heavy system that includes lots of potential impact arms, though guys like Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Seth Beer ensure that the group of hitters is nothing to overlook.

Affiliates: AAA Fresno Grizzlies*, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Buies Creek Astros*, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, Short Season Tri-City ValleyCats, rookie level GCL and DSL Astros
*AAA affiliate will move from Fresno, CA to Round Rock, TX and High A affiliate will move from Buies Creek, NC to Fayetteville, NC in 2019

The Headliners: OF Kyle Tucker and RHP Forrest Whitley
The Astros carry arguably the best hitter/pitcher prospect combination in the minors (Padres/Rays/White Sox have strong cases as well), and both of these guys were first round picks out of high school. 22 year old Kyle Tucker was selected fifth overall out of a Tampa high school in 2015, gradually working his way up through the minors then slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and an 84/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AAA Fresno, a hitter-friendly context. In 28 major league games, he then slashed .141/.236/.203 with a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio, but the immense upside remains. Tucker is 6'4" and has added plenty of strength to his lanky frame over the years, giving him plus power to go with good enough plate discipline and barrel feel to get to that power regularly. While he likely won't post .400 on-base percentages in the majors like he did in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he should easily push and exceed .350 while adding 20-30 home runs per season. Unlike most 6'4" sluggers, Tucker isn't a liability on defense, showing the ability to play decent defense in right field with his strong arm and decent speed. He'll get more of an extended crack at the majors in 2019 and he certainly improve that slash line. 21 year old Forrest Whitley was the 17th overall pick out of a San Antonio high school in 2016, and a tremendous 2017 (2.83 ERA, 143/34 K/BB in 92.1 IP) put him firmly among the best pitching prospects in the game. However, he missed a big chunk of 2018 after being hit with a 50 game drug suspension (Major League Baseball did not clarify whether it was a PED or a drug of abuse) as well as an oblique injury, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi. When he is healthy and on the mound, the 6'7" righty has some of the best pure stuff in the minors, showing a mid 90's fastball with movement, two great breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, and an advanced changeup to round out a full arsenal. While his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he's hurting himself with walks, and he should be major league ready at some point in 2019. He has true ace upside, so long as he returns from a lost 2018 to be the same pitcher he was in 2017.

Upper Minors Arms: RHP Josh James, LHP Cionel Perez, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Rogelio Armenteros, RHP Corbin Martin, RHP Brandon Bielak, and LHP Kit Scheetz
Aside from Forrest Whitley, the Astros have plenty of pitching prospects right on the cusp of being major league ready, so even with Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton departing via free agency and Lance McCullers going down with Tommy John surgery, they will have plenty of internal options to shuffle in behind Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Wade Miley. 25 year old Josh James might be the most interesting in the group, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.23 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 171/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno, followed by a successful major league stint with a 2.35 ERA and a 29/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. James, a former 34th rounder out of Western Oklahoma State, wasn't really much of a prospect until his roommate complained about his snoring, which led to a diagnosis and treatment for sleep apnea in 2017 and a huge velocity jump in 2018. Now, James throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a solid slider and changeup, missing tons of bats and limiting the walks to a reasonable rate. He'll never be a control artist, but if he stays healthy and can at least have a general idea where his pitches are going in the majors, he has the chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter in the very near future. 22 year old Cionel Perez, a product of Cuba, also had an upper minors breakout this year with a 2.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, also adding a 3.97 ERA and a 12/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 major league innings. Perez is a small, skinny lefty at 5'11", but he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches. With his solid command, the only question with him right now is durability given his small frame, as he otherwise has what it takes to be a major league starter. If he stays healthy, he's a mid-rotation starter in the near future, but a couple of injuries could push him to the bullpen given the Astros' depth on the mound. 25 year old Framber Valdez, like Josh James, was another unheralded signing who has made good, posting a 4.11 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, followed by a 2.19 ERA and a 34/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 major league innings. Valdez, like Perez, is a 5'11" lefty, and he brings a low to mid 90's fastball and a big dropping curveball, the two pitches alone giving him enough stuff to strike out upper minors hitters in bunches. His control has come and gone, making him look like a potential #3 starter when it's working or like a future reliever when it isn't. Given Houston's depth and Valdez's size and durability concerns, he is probably more likely than James or Perez to end up in the bullpen. 24 year old Rogelio Armenteros had one of the best statistical seasons in the minors in 2017 (10-4, 2.04 ERA, 146/38 K/BB in AA/AAA), then followed it up with a successful run through the AAA Pacific Coast League by posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 134/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 innings in a hitter-friendly context in Fresno. Armenteros doesn't have the electric stuff of the arms above him on this list, but the 6'1" righty mixes and commands his deep arsenal very well to keep hitters off balance, using his very good changeup as his go-to. His ceiling is really only that of a #4 starter, but he may have staying power due to his knowledge of pitching and ability to execute. 23 year old Corbin Martin is a Houston native and a Texas A&M alum, giving the system a little bit of hometown flair, and he posted a 2.51 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 122/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. The 2017 second round pick (56th overall) has been a fast mover, using his low to mid 90's fastball and deep, effective arsenal to fuel his success. He has the classic profile of a mid-rotation starter and, barring injury, carries very little risk due to his all-around skill set. He's pretty much major league ready at this point, but the Astros have no need to rush him with all of the talent ahead of him. 22 year old Brandon Bielak was an unheralded eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017 (in fact the second Notre Dame pitcher taken by the Astros that year after fourth rounder Peter Solomon), but a 1.91 ERA over his first season and a half in pro ball has changed that. In 2018, he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using a similar skill set to Martin. He sits in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches, and while his command is probably a step below Martin's, he can hit his spots effectively. While Martin has #3 starter projection, Bielak looks like a solid #4 guy if he can continue missing bats at the higher levels. Lastly, 24 year old Kit Scheetz was as unheralded as they come, going un-drafted as a redshirt senior out of Virginia Tech and signing with the Astros as a free agent. Showing mediocre, inconsistent stuff in college, he has gotten much more consistent in pro ball and now sits in the upper 80's while adding a good curveball, the deception in his left handed delivery and improved command making everything play up. His ceiling is likely as a middle or long reliever, but I write him up here because of the success story after being un-drafted as well as the personal connection from having watched him pitch for three years in college.

Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Peter Solomon, RHP Tyler Ivey, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Bryan Abreu, and RHP Jayson Schroeder
Down lower in the minors, the Astros are still very deep in arms, though naturally there is a lot more risk down there. 22 year old J.B. Bukauskas made it look easy when he shut out my high school team in 2014, and things have only gone up from there. A first round pick (15th overall) out of UNC in 2017, he split 2018 between five different levels and posted a 2.14 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 innings, most of which came at Class A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek (though he also saw time in complex ball, short season ball, and at AA Corpus Christi). It was actually a car accident that limited his time on the mound in 2018, but Bukauskas is back and healthy now, pumping mid 90's fastballs and his signature power slider for high numbers of strikeouts. The stuff gives him high upside, and if he can stick as a starter, he could be an a good one in Houston. However, he's only six feet tall and has some effort in his delivery, which when combined with his inconsistent command, gives him considerable relief risk. The Astros will continue to develop him as a starter, but even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer. 22 year old Peter Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick in the same 2017 draft out of Notre Dame, and his very successful first full season saw him post a 2.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek, losing no effectiveness with the promotion to High A. He's a lanky 6'4" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of solid breaking balls, but most importantly, he has significantly improved his command over the past few seasons. When I saw him pitch in 2016 as a sophomore at Notre Dame, he was walking nearly a batter per inning, but now he has at least some semblance of knowing where the strike zone is and that has allowed his very good stuff to play up. He has mid-rotation upside if he can maintain the gains he has made with his command. 22 year old Tyler Ivey is yet another member of that 2017 draft class, a third rounder (91st overall) out of a Texas junior  college. Like Bukauskas, Solomon, Martin, and Bielak (Martin and Bielak in the high minors section), he had a breakout 2018 and posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. While Bukauskas and Solomon are more about the stuff, Ivey is more similar to Martin and Bielak in that he is a pitchability guy with low 90's fastball velocity and pretty good control. At 6'4", he could hit the mid 90's a little more consistently down the road, but his future as it stands now paints him as a potential #4 starter, one who can eat innings and keep his ERA hovering around 4.00. Moving to a couple of international signings, 21 year old Cristian Javier continued his long stretch of dominance in the minors with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 146/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018, using his pair of good breaking balls to make his deceptive 90 MPH fastball play up. While his command could still use a bit of polish, the breaking balls were enough to consistently miss bats in A ball and should play up into AA as well, and adding either a little bit of velocity or improving his command a bit more could make him a #4 starter. As is, he still could profile as an effective reliever. 21 year old Bryan Abreu has moved very slowly and has not spent much time on the mound in his pro career, but his breakout in 2018 was electric. The 6'1" righty posted a 1.49 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Quad Cities, using a low 90's fastball, a hammer curveball, and a good slider to make low minors hitters look silly at the plate. He needs to prove his durability and improve his command, but the ceiling is very high for Abreu and his 2019 should be watched very closely. Lastly, 19 year old Jayson Schroeder was just a second round pick (66th overall) in 2018 out of a Seattle area high school, coming out strong in a short complex level stint by posting a 1.50 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings. He's a projectable 6'2" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal highlighted by a very good curveball, and his decent present command gives him a good combination of floor and ceiling, at least as far as high school pitchers go. Schroeder has mid-rotation upside, but barring injuries, I think the risk is fairly low compared to most pitchers in his demographic and he has less bust risk than you'd expect.

High Minors Hitters: OF Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, OF Myles Straw, OF Ronnie Dawson, 3B Abraham Toro, and 3B Josh Rojas
The Astros aren't as deep when it comes to hitters as they are with pitchers, especially after Kyle Tucker and 21 year old Yordan Alvarez up a the top of the system. Alvarez has done nothing but mash since being signed out of Cuba in 2016, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.369/.534 with 20 home runs and a 92/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno. The fact that he was much better at Corpus Christi (.325/.389/.615) than at hitter-friendly Fresno (.259/.349/.452) means that he'll likely need some more AAA seasoning in 2019, but he's a legitimate impact prospect. Alvarez shows both power and on-base ability, giving him the chance to be an impact hitter in Astros lineups in the near future. He doesn't bring much to the table defensively but with his bat, that won't matter and the Astros will be happy to just stick him in left field and let him hit. 25 year old Garrett Stubbs gives Houston an actual catching prospect, one who slashed .310/.382/.455 with four home runs and a 53/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Fresno in 2018. He's a very good defensive catcher whose defense has carried him all the way up to the top of the minors, and his advanced approach at the plate and propensity for making contact make him a very interesting prospect. However, with very little power to speak of, Stubbs will face an uphill climb when it comes to ultimately winning a major league starting job, whether that's in Houston or elsewhere. 24 year old Myles Straw slashed .291/.381/.353 with one home run, 70 stolen bases, and a 102/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Fresno in 2018, then slashed .333/.400/.667 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a nine game MLB debut. Despite homering in his second major league start, Straw has almost no power to speak of and instead makes his living as a slap hitter with blazing speed. He's a very good defender in center field that can steal a base off of any catcher he wants, and while he smartly draws plenty of walks, I'm not sure he does enough at the plate to warrant a starting job. He hits plenty of singles and draws plenty of walks, but home runs aside, he still doesn't hit many doubles or triples. He would make a perfect fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner extraordinaire, but finding a starting role will be difficult. 23 year old Ronnie Dawson, a former fan favorite at Ohio State, slashed .258/.333/.428 with 16 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 130/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. He has the power/speed combination that scouts love, but he needs to cut down his strikeouts if he ever wants to be a major league starter. He has fourth outfielder projection right now but could change that by improving his approach at the plate in 2019. 22 year old Abraham Toro slashed .247/.345/.435 with 16 home runs and a 108/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, showing just enough power to keep his prospect status up in this deep system. He's a fairly average hitter across the board, and his strong arm helps him provide value on defense at third base. Overall, he looks more like a bench bat than a starter, but you never know. Lastly, 24 year old Josh Rojas is a 26th round pick (out of Hawaii in 2017) made good, one who didn't play his first professional game until the day before his 23rd birthday and who has moved quickly through the minors. In 2018, he slashed .263/.351/.408 with eight home runs, 38 stolen bases, and an 89/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using his speed and advanced bat to earn himself a utility infielder projection.

Low Minors Hitters: OF Seth Beer, OF J.J. Matijevic, OF Corey Julks, OF Alex McKenna, 2B Luis Santana, SS Jeremy Pena, and SS Freudis Nova
As with the upper minors, the Astros are not very deep when it comes to potential impact hitters, though there may be a little bit more hope here (Kyle Tucker aside). 22 year old Seth Beer straight up mashed for three years at Clemson (56 HR, .321/.489/.648, 98/180 K/BB in 188 games), but a poor track record with wood bats on the U.S. Collegiate National Team led many scouts to think he might just be a "mistake hitter" who can crush middle-middle fastballs but might not be able to handle better pitching. However, after being taken in the first round (28th overall) in 2018, he completely reversed the negatives and slashed .304/.389/.496 with 12 home runs and a 49/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between short season Tri-City, Class A Quad Cities, and High A Buies Creek. If the 2018 numbers hold true and he is in fact able to translate his college hitting ability to professional baseball, then he has a chance at plus power and high on-base percentages  resulting from great plate discipline in the majors, making him a true middle of the order hitter. He provides no value on defense as a very mediocre left fielder who may even have to move to first base, but if the bat is for real, then that won't matter. How he adjusts to higher level pitching in 2019 will tell the Astros whether they have a future star or just a nice bat. 23 year old J.J. Matijevic had a nice first full season after being drafted in the competitive balance round (75th overall) out of Arizona in 2017, slashing .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 113/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. Like Beer, Matijevic is another guy whose bat will carry him, but he's not quite as extreme. Matijevic is nothing special in the outfield but not a butcher like Beer, just like his bat is good but not quite as (potentially) elite as Beer's. He has power and the ability to get on base, and while neither of those skills could really be construed as "plus," he might just be able to hit his way into regular starting lineups down the road. If not, he'll make a very good fourth outfielder. 22 year old Corey Julks, a Houston area native and a University of Houston alum, surprised some with a strong season in A ball, slashing .270/.351/.418 with ten home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 108/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games between Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018. He's a better defender and a better runner than Matijevic, and while his bat is a bit weaker, he actually hit better after his promotion to High A and he has an outside chance to end up a starter down the road. Ultimately, I think he has fourth outfielder projection just because most of his tools (speed aside) are just a hair below average, but it's a nice find in a hometown player in the eighth round. 21 year old Alex McKenna was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Cal Poly in 2018, and he got off to a strong start by slashing .311/.394/.512 with seven home runs and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at Tri-City and Quad Cities. He has a similar profile to Julks as an all-around player without a standout tool, but I think he currently projects to post slightly higher on-base percentages and at this point is slightly more likely to one day win a starting spot. That said, he doesn't have as much power as Matijevic and his defense is only a little better (closer to average if not slightly above), so both Julks and McKenna remain behind Matijevic on the depth chart. 21 year old Jeremy Pena was the third round pick (102nd overall) out of Maine in the same 2018 draft, and he slashed .250/.340/.309 with one home run and a 19/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at Tri-City in his debut. The bat is pretty weak but he does a good job of limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, though he wasn't drafted for his bat. Pena is a very good defender at shortstop, one who will stay at the position long term and who could be a valuable utility infielder if he can hit just enough. I wrote about 19 year old Luis Santana, recently acquired for J.D. Davis, in the Mets' farm system review, but here is his profile again. Santana slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs and a 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in the rookie level Appalachian League, showing a lot more punch in the bat than you'd expect from a 5'8" infielder because he combines great plate discipline and barrel control with an explosive swing. How that big leg kick holds up in full season ball will be interesting to see, but Santana is a real sleeper prospect who could be a starting second baseman one day. Lastly, 19 year old Freudis Nova gives the Astros one more fun prospect to watch in the low minors, having slashed .308/.331/.466 with six home runs and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in complex ball in 2018. Like Pena, he's a very good defender at shortstop and should be able to stick there long term, but he's a little bit better of a hitter who already has shown the ability to consistently barrel the ball up. His plate discipline needs work and he's unproven above complex ball, but a good transition to the New York-Penn League in 2019 could bump him up on prospect lists quickly.

Phillies Acquire J.T. Realmuto

Phillies Get
C J.T. Realmuto (2019 Age: 28): 21 HR, .277/.340/.484, 3 SB, 126 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR

Marlins Get
C Jorge Alfaro (2019 Age: 25-26): 10 HR, .262/.324/.407, 3 SB, 96 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
RHP Sixto Sanchez (2019 Age: 20-21): 4-3, 2.51 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 45/11 K/BB, 46.2 IP in High A
LHP Will Stewart (2019 Age: 21-22): 8-1, 2.06 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 90/21 K/BB, 113.2 IP in Class A
$250,000 in international bonus money

Phillies Perspective
The Phillies gave up a huge haul headlined by their top prospect to acquire the game's best catcher, but when you want to win a World Series, these are the things you have to do. They can actually stomach the loss of Sixto Sanchez due to the presence of Aaron Nola as well as numerous near-MLB ready starting pitchers in the minors, such as Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Enyel De Los Santos, JoJo Romero, and Connor Seabold. By including Jorge Alfaro, who would have been relegated to backup catcher if he hadn't gone to Miami, the Phillies were also able to avoid giving up one of their secondary top prospects such as Alec Bohm or Adam Haseley. Losing Sanchez really hurts, but a World Series ring could make them forget real quick. If Realmuto attracts Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, even better.

Moving on, I'm sure Phillies fans would much rather hear about J.T. Realmuto than Sixto Sanchez. He'll immediately slot in as the starting catcher as well as into the middle of the order. Where Rhys Hoskins was originally supposed to be the guy to lead a decent offensive core consisting of Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, and Odubel Hernandez, Realmuto steps in and transforms the middle of the lineup. In 2018, he slashed .277/.340/.484 with 21 home runs for the Marlins, but it gets better. He was much better on the road (13 HR, .283/.350/.520) than at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park (8 HR, .269/.329/.444), a trend that has remained true throughout his career, and moving to more hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park will almost certainly boost his numbers. For 2019, it's not unreasonable to expect 25 home runs or more plus an on-base percentage over .350, which together with his defense would make him a five win catcher. He's only under contract for $5.9 million in 2019 and arbitration will limit how much he will make in 2020, so he's a real bargain monetarily. For his career, the Oklahoma City native has 59 home runs, a .279/.327/.442 slash line, and 14.3 fWAR over 540 games since 2014.

Marlins Perspective
The Marlins fielded offers on Realmuto for well over a year, asking for impact players like Victor Robles, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, and Nick Senzel, among others along the way, showing extreme patience that many thought would actually end up costing them. However, after landing elite prospect Sixto Sanchez in a deal with the Phillies, the patience paid off. Among the Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna trades, Sanchez is easily the best prospect they have acquired, and with Jorge Alfaro coming in, they don't have to worry about finding someone to catch in 2019.

Even though Sixto Sanchez is the headliner, I'll start with Jorge Alfaro, the lone major leaguer in the return. He's a 25 year old catcher whose strengths and weaknesses are both very apparent, as his power at the plate is balanced out by his over-aggressive approach and high strikeout totals while his cannon arm behind the plate is balanced out by his otherwise decent defense. His high upside will take patience to bring out, though at 25, it's very likely that he never reaches it. As it stands, Alfaro evens out to an average hitter and an average defender, though surprisingly few catchers can actually say the same these days and his defense has in fact been improving. Without much in the terms of challengers, Alfaro should hold down that catcher's role for the foreseeable future as roughly a two win player. For his career, the Colombia native has 15 home runs, a .270/.327/.422 slash line, and 2.5 fWAR over 143 games since 2016.
I've said it multiple times and I'll say it again: Sixto Sanchez is a stud. As I highlighted in the Phillies farm system review, he's a 20 year old right hander with a mid to upper 90's fastball with movement at the lower velocities, a very good curveball, and an advanced changeup, but unlike most young kids with electric stuff, he can actually command it and command it well. He battled elbow inflammation in 2018, which led to the Phillies questioning the six footer's durability just enough that they were comfortable with shipping him to Miami. Because the stuff and command are both so good at such a young age, the only thing that could realistically stop Sanchez from becoming a true ace would be that durability factor. The Marlins will likely handle him carefully as he transitions to AA in 2019, and a healthy Sanchez could be the top prospect in baseball by the time Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis graduate off the lists later this season. Moving on, Will Stewart is a 21 year old lefty who has slowly worked his way up through the low minors and reached Class A Lakewood this year, dominating to the tune of an 8-1 record, a 2.06 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings. He's a sleeper prospect who fuels his success with good command of a low 90's fastball and a great changeup, and he could be a quick riser now that he has established himself with that breakout 2018. Stewart has back end of the rotation projection and serves to cover some of the risk that Sanchez comes with.

Reviewing the Minnesota Twins Farm System

The Twins have one of the game's better farm systems primarily because of two hitters, two former first round picks out of high school, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. However, the Twins do have quite a few interesting players behind them in their hitter-heavy system, including plenty of power. On the mound, they have an abundance of back-end starters and should have no problem with rotation depth in the coming years, with most of their higher-upside arms sitting lower in the minors.

Affiliates: AAA Rochester Red Wings, AA Chattanooga Lookouts*, High A Fort Myers Miracle, Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels, rookie level Elizabethton Twins, and complex level GCL and DSL Twins
*AA affiliate will move from Chattanooga, TN to Pensacola, FL in 2019

The Headliners: SS Royce Lewis and OF Alex Kirilloff
Except for possibly the Blue Jays with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, I'm not sure that any team has a better pair of hitters than the Twins' Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, both of whom were first round picks out of high school in 2017 and 2016, respectively. 19 year old Royce Lewis, the first overall pick of the 2017 draft out of high school in southern California, had a big first full pro season by slashing .292/.352/.451 with 14 home runs, 28 stolen bases, and an 84/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers. While he was much better at the lower level (.315/.368/.485) than the upper level (.255/.327/.399), the fact that he made it to High A barely a month after his 19th birthday and kept his plate discipline steady is a testament to how advanced his bat is at such a young age. Though he's more wiry and speed oriented at 6'2", Lewis has great feel for the barrel and can produce average power even with a more line drive oriented swing. His contact ability is so good for his age that I can see him adding loft down the road and producing above average power to go along with high on-base percentages and stolen base totals, making him a complete threat on the offensive side. Defensively, there are question marks as to whether he will be able to stay at shortstop, though he could likely handle second base well or use his plus speed to be an above average center fielder. Either way, he'll be a net-positive on defense while he hammers away at pro pitching. Meanwhile, 21 year old Alex Kirilloff was taken 15th overall out of a Pittsburgh-area high school in 2016 and after missing 2017 with Tommy John surgery, he came roaring back with one of the best statistical seasons in the minors. Kirilloff slashed .348/.392/.578 with 20 home runs and an 86/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, losing no production between the lower level (.333/.391/.607) and the upper level (.362/.393/.550). Kirilloff, like Lewis, does not get fooled at the plate and actually shows even more present power than Lewis (he hit 44 doubles and seven triples for a total of 71 extra base hits in 2018), and overall will probably produce slightly better offensive numbers than Lewis long term. Of course, Lewis is younger, faster, and provides more value on defense (Kirilloff looks to be an average right fielder), but Kirilloff certainly has a special bat. Look for Lewis and Kirilloff to both hit at the top of the lineup in a few years.

High Minors Pitchers: LHP Stephen Gonsalves, RHP Zack Littell, LHP Lewis Thorpe, RHP Jorge Alcala, and LHP Tyler Wells
While many of the Twins' more exciting arms are down lower in the minors, they do have a good set of back-end starters up close to the majors. 24 year old Stephen Gonsalves has had a long, dominant minor league career (53-20, 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP since 2013), and he may have finally capped it off in 2018 by going 12-3 with a 2.76 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 120/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings at AA Chattanooga and AAA Rochester before posting a 6.57 ERA and a 16/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 24.2 major league innings. Gonsalves is an interesting prospect, as he's a 6'5" lefty who gets by more on deception than stuff, or for that matter, command. He throws in the low 90's and adds a decent curveball, with his changeup being his best pitch, but his command comes and goes. On his best days, he hits his spots and has solid-average command, and on the next he may have no idea where the strike zone is. It's hard to comp him to another pitcher, though Gio Gonzalez makes sense if you leave out the height difference and swap out Gio's great curve for Stephen's great changeup. I can honestly see Gonsalves having a similar career to Gonzalez, and if that were the case, the Twins would take it. 23 year old Zack Littell was a member of the same 2013 draft class, though while Gonsalves was old for the class and turned 19 shortly after draft day, Littell didn't turn 18 until after the 2013 season. After being traded from Seattle to New York for James Pazos in 2016 and from New York to Minnesota for Jaime Garcia in 2017, the North Carolina native posted a 3.98 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 130/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 innings between Chattanooga and rochester in 2018, adding a 6.20 ERA and a 14/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 major league innings. He's a 6'4" right hander who controls his largely average stuff well, giving him back-end projection when it comes to starting in the major leagues. He'll likely be a more consistent starter than Gonsalves, though his ceiling is lower. 23 year old Lewis Thorpe posted a 3.54 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 157/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings at Chattanooga and Rochester in 2018, though unlike Gonsalves and Littell, he did not get a major league trial. The lefty from Melbourne, Australia missed both the 2015 and 2016 seasons with a one-two punch of Tommy John surgery and mono, but he came out of it stronger than before and may be the best prospect in this group. He also throws in the low 90's and adds solid-average stuff, though his command and ability to mix his pitches help everything play up. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, so seeing how he, along with Gonsalves and Littell, manages in the fight for rotation spots in 2019 will be very fun. 24 year old Tyler Wells was just a 15th round pick out of Cal State San Bernardino in 2016 but he has all of our attention after posting a 2.49 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 121/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings between High A Fort Myers and Chattanooga in 2018. The massive, 6'8", 265 pound right hander has average stuff with a deep arsenal (certainly following a trend here), but he uses his height well and commands his pitches even better, enabling him to make hitters look foolish at every stop. Wells is just a bit behind Gonsalves, Littell, and Thorpe on the depth chart, but another good year in the upper minors in 2019 could have him knocking on the door as a potential back end starter. Lastly, 23 year old Jorge Alcala came over from the Astros in the Ryan Pressly trade this season, posting a 3.81 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 104/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.1 innings at High A and AA between the two organizations. While the four pitchers above him on this list have deep arsenals and average fastballs, Alcala sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also maintaining a full array of secondary pitches. However, he hasn't put up quite the numbers you would expect given that stuff because his control is very lacking at this point, leading to him falling behind in the count and issuing high numbers of walks. The fact that he still keeps the quality of contact down even when he falls behind in the count is a good sign, because if he was able to improve that command and get his fair share of favorable counts, his stuff could play up and enable him to be an impact starter at the major league level. However, if his control does not sharpen, he runs the risk of ending up in the bullpen, where his fastball could likely push 100.

High Minors Hitters: SS Nick Gordon, OF LaMonte Wade, OF Brent Rooker, OF Luke Raley, and 2B Luis Arraez
The Twins don't have many impact bats up near the majors, but among their best prospects, there is a good mix of different skills. 23 year old Nick Gordon, the fifth overall pick in the 2014 draft out of high school in Orlando, has worked his way through the minors slowly and slashed .248/.298/.355 with seven home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 109/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Rochester this year. He actually hit really well in 42 games at Chattanooga (5 HR, .333/.381/.525) but he hit a major slump upon his promotion to Rochester and slashed just .212/.262/.283 the rest of the way. He plays a decent shortstop and even if he eventually has to move to second base, he profiles as above average there, so his glove and high draft status have bought the bat plenty of time to develop. Set to play all of 2019 at 23 years old, he still has more time, but the prolonged slump in AAA leaves some major question marks as to whether Gordon will ever hit enough to start in the majors. He keeps his strikeouts down, which will help ease his transition to the majors, but other than a few hot streaks here and there, he hasn't really shown much power or gotten on base consistently. If he can find his stroke consistently in 2019, that may point to a future as a starting infielder for the Twins, but he faces a utility projection if he doesn't put it all together this year. 25 year old LaMonte Wade, a sixth round pick out of Maryland in 2015, has had a similar post-draft career arc to Gordon by working his way up through the minors slowly for a college player then having a dichotomous season this year. In 2018, he slashed .257/.360/.380 with 11 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 74/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games between Chattanooga and Rochester, but like Gordon, he hit much better before the promotion (.298/.393/.444) than after (.229/.337/.336). He has no standout tool, but his advanced plate discipline, strong frame, and solid-average outfield defense make him a useful player in a variety of ways. His profile screams fourth outfielder and that's how I think he ends up, and he should be ready to contribute off the bench in 2019. Now-24 year old Brent Rooker rode a huge junior season at Mississippi State (23 HR, 18 SB, .387/.495/.810 against top tier SEC pitching) to a 35th overall selection in the 2017 draft and that power has played up in the minors, as he slashed .254/.333/.465 with 22 home runs and a 150/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Chattanooga in 2018, his first full pro season. His big, quick, powerful swing and 6'3" frame give him plenty of pop, though high strikeout rates hold back his production at this point. Cutting down on that strikeout rate just a little bit and finding the barrel just a little more often could pay huge dividends for him, and he has arguably the highest ceiling in this group even at 24 years old. Of course, a 24 year old cutting his strikeout rate at the highest levels is far from a given, and his mediocre outfield defense does put all of the pressure on his bat. I would really like to see Rooker succeed and put up big home run totals in the majors, but we'll have to see how he handles AAA first after Gordon and Wade struggled there. 24 year old Luke Raley came over from the Dodgers in the Brian Dozier trade and like Rooker, he puts up big power numbers, slashing .275/.350/.471 with 20 home runs and a 137/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AA. Raley's raw power isn't quite as impressive as Rooker's, but he has a slightly better feel for the barrel which enables him to get to it just as often as Rooker does, at least for now. His good outfield defense also boosts his value, though his power/contact combination might be just a hair too light to start in the majors and he looks like more of a platoon bat at this point. Lastly, 21 year old Luis Arraez is the youngest player in this section, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .310/.361/.397 with three home runs and a 44/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at High A Fort Myers and Chattanooga. Listed at 5'10" and just 155 pounds, Arraez will never be mistaken for a power hitter, but his exceptional bat-to-ball skills give evaluators little worry that he'll be able to handle higher level pitching as he moves up. At this point, he is able to spray line drives all over the field with ease and that primarily helped him push his on-base percentage to .361 in 2018, but becoming more patient at the plate and increasing his walk rate will be helpful in keeping those on-base percentages high as he moves up. Defensively, he plays a decent second base but may be pushed to the outfield, though his contact ability will enable him to reach the majors regardless of his defensive role, even if it's just in a reserve role.

Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Brusdar Graterol, LHP Charlie Barnes, RHP Blayne Enlow, RHP Jordan Balazovic, RHP Jhoan Duran, and RHP Griffin Jax
The team's best pitching prospects reside lower in the minor leagues, with plenty of exciting arms and lots of upside. 20 year old Brusdar Graterol leads not only this group, but the whole Twins system as the team's consensus best pitching prospect. The 6'1" righty had a dominant year in A ball by posting a 2.74 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 107/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers, continuing to put up great numbers even after the promotion. He already throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a full arsenal that is still developing, though his slider already stands out as a potential out pitch and his command is developing nicely. On the to-do list for 2019 will be further sharpening his secondary pitches, and if he can do that successfully, he has top of the rotation potential. 20 year old pitchers always carry some level of risk, but Graterol's upside and chances of reaching it are both high. 23 year old Charlie Barnes is a very different pitcher from Graterol, riding a fourth round selection out of Clemson in 2017 to a successful first full season in 2018, posting a 2.81 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an 84/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings at Fort Myers. The 6'2" lefty doesn't throw all that hard with a fastball right around 90, but he adds a full arsenal and commands and mixes everything very well, helping his average stuff play up and enabling him to successfully handle High A within a year after being drafted. He has #5 starter upside. Moving down a level, 19 year old Blayne Enlow is a 6'3" righty with high upside, and he posted a 3.26 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 71/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at Cedar Rapids in 2018. He throws in the low 90's but is projectable enough to easily envision more velocity, and his curveball is among the best in the Twins' system. His command is coming along nicely, though he was a little bit more hittable than you would think in 2018. Look for an uptick in his strikeout rate in 2019, which could signal a breakout and put him on the fast track to being a #2 starter, but for now the Twins are happy with his development and he'll turn 20 just before the start of the season. 20 year old Jordan Balazovic is more of a sleeper prospect as he has slowly worked his way through the low minors, posting a 3.94 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 78/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings at Cedar Rapids in 2018. The 6'4" Canadian righty is extremely projectable and already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and his secondary pitches and command are both coming along. The command was his biggest step forward in 2018, and like the more well-known Enlow, Balazovic is a breakout candidate for 2019 with a mid-rotation ceiling. 21 year old Jhoan Duran came over from the Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar trade, posting a 3.75 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 115/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings between the two teams' Class A affiliates. His upside is tremendous given his mid 90's fastball and 6'5" frame, though the rest of his game needs work. The curveball is coming along and his command is getting close to average, though either his secondaries or that command will need to take another step forward if he wants to remain a starter. Otherwise, he could be very effective as a late-inning reliever. Lastly, we have 24 year old Griffin Jax, who will have perhaps the least linear path to the major leagues in this system. In 2018, he posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 66/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 87.2 innings at Fort Myers, but that's only part of the story. Jax is an Air Force Academy graduate who must serve two years of active duty in the Air Force, though he earned a temporary exemption from 2018-2020 through the World Class Athletes program. He throws a low 90's fastball with a curveball and a slider, commanding it all well and coming with solid #4 starter upside. However, Jax isn't out of the woods yet when it comes to military service time, so we'll have to wait and see how the Twins and the Department of Defense handle him going forward.

Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Ernie De La Trinidad, 2B Jose Miranda, OF Akil Baddoo, OF Trevor Larnach, C Ryan Jeffers, OF Gilberto Celestino, and SS Wander Javier
The Twins looked to be very deep with their mid minors hitting prospects, especially after big seasons from Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, but disappointing seasons from guys like Lewin Diaz, Ben Rortvedt, Travis Blankenhorn, and Andrew Bechtold, as well as a lost season for the injured Wander Javier, have left the non-Lewis/Kirilloff group looking less impactful than it was before the season. One addition that helps mitigate that a little bit is 23 year old Ernie De La Trinidad, who came over from the Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar trade. De La Trinidad mashed in his first full season out of UNLV, slashing .309/.394/.424 with nine home runs and a 65/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games between the Diamondbacks' Class A affiliate and High A Fort Myers. He packs a lot of punch for a skinny, 5'9" outfielder, but his very good plate discipline helps him find the barrel more often than not and subsequently makes him an above average hitter. With his decent outfield defense, De La Trinidad looks like a solid fourth outfielder down the road. 20 year old Jose Miranda had a big year at the plate, slashing .264/.319/.417 with 16 home runs and a 62/31 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, showing some power as well as excellent contact ability. He could use a few more walks if he wants a chance at starting down the road, but the innate ability to get his pitch and do damage with it will help ease his transitions into the higher minors. Defensively, he's just okay at second base and has been moved around the field, so while the glove won't be buying the bat any slack, at least he's versatile. 20 year old Akil Baddoo is one of my favorite players in this system, and he built off a breakout 2017 season by slashing .243/.351/.419 with 11 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 124/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at Cedar Rapids. Baddoo was very raw when the Twins drafted him in the competitive balance round (74th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2016, and while he has made strides at the plate, that rawness still shows in his numbers. He's exceptionally patient and draws a ton of walks, which in turn enables him to use his plus speed to steal more bases, and as his swing has improved, he has been adding power. He'll likely never be a 25 homer guy at 5'11", but if he can further streamline his swing and continue to improve his pitch recognition, he could become the complete package at the plate with moderate power, high on-base percentages, and lots of stolen bases. Defensively, he's still learning to use his speed effectively, but he's a center fielder for now and would be above average if he were forced to move to left. I'll be watching his transition to High A in 2019 very closely. 21 year old Trevor Larnach was drafted 20th overall out of Oregon State in 2018, and after he and the Beavers won the College World Series, he slashed .303/.390/.500 with five home runs and a 28/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games at rookie level Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. He has an excellent bat that shows both power and on-base ability, with his advanced approach helping him limit strikeouts and take walks when they're given to him. While he doesn't have light tower power like Brent Rooker, the 6'4" outfielder regularly barrels the ball up and produced high exit velocities in college, giving him a projection of 25 home runs per season or more with high on-base percentages. His outfield defense is fairly mediocre, but that doesn't matter because he has plenty of bat to make up for it. 21 year old Ryan Jeffers was drafted right after Larnach in the second round (59th overall) out of UNC-Wilmington, and he absolutely mashed in his pro debut with a .344/.444/.502 slash line, seven home runs, and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. The huge debut erases any pre-draft concerns about his track record with wood bats, as the 6'4" catcher showed plenty of both power and plate discipline. He's decent defensively with the chance to stick behind the plate but no guarantee, but if he remains a catcher up to the major league level, he could be a rare bat-first MLB catcher. With another big year in 2019, he'll pass Ben Rortvedt on the depth chart and establish himself as the team's catcher of the future. 19 year old Gilberto Celestino came over with Jorge Alcala in the Ryan Pressly trade, and he slashed .287/.341/.406 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 46/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in rookie ball and short season ball (plus eight fruitless at bats in AA) between the two teams. He's hit over power at the plate with the chance to develop more of the latter, but at this point, his speed and great defense in center field carry him as a prospect. The glove will buy his bat plenty of time to mature, and with his 20th birthday coming up, it's not like he's in any rush anyways. Improving his plate discipline could make Celestino a future leadoff man, and we'll see how the bat, which is already fairly advanced for his age, translates to full season ball in 2019. Lastly, we have 20 year old Wander Javier, who missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury. Back in 2017, he slashed .299/.383/.471 as an 18 year old in the rookie level Appalachian League, and when you combine that natural line drive bat with the potential to stick at shortstop, you have a very good prospect on your hands. There could be more power to come in his 6'1" frame, and with his natural contact ability, he has the chance to be an impact player on both offense and defense. However, we'll first have to see how he returns from his injury before we go on labelling him a "top prospect." He'll be another interesting bat to watch in 2019.

Reviewing the Los Angeles Dodgers Farm System

The Dodgers feature a lot of high upside talent, but unlike a lot of other upside-oriented systems such as that of the Rangers or Indians, there is both a lot of depth here and more refinement in the high-upside players. The Dodgers do a terrific job of player development, which is obvious to us after they produced 2016 NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager, 2017 NL Rookie of the Year Cody Bellinger, and 2018 3rd place NL ROY finisher Walker Buehler in consecutive seasons. Even with that string of graduations and some trades that have sent away Yusniel Diaz, Dean Kremer, and James Marinan, among others, that player development system has enabled the team to continue keeping up a high level farm. Interestingly, this team also has a high number of catchers coming through the system with four guys that I'd like to note in this writeup – the most of any team so far.

Affiliates: AAA Oklahoma City Dodgers, AA Tulsa Drillers, High A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, Class A Great Lakes Loons, rookie level Ogden Raptors, and complex level AZL and DSL Dodgers

High Minors Hitters: OF Alex Verdugo, C Will Smith, 1B Edwin Rios, C Keibert Ruiz, SS Gavin Lux, OF DJ Peters, and SS Errol Robinson
There is a lot of talent very close to the major leagues for the Dodgers, and with an incredibly deep big league roster as it its, a lot of these guys are expendable in a potential J.T. Realmuto or otherwise big trade. If they were actually able to find him playing time, I would call 22 year old Alex Verdugo the next in line in the Seager-Bellinger-Buehler parade, but with an already-crowded outfield, he's probably best off somewhere else right now because he's absolutely ready. In 2018, the Tucson native slashed .329/.391/.472 with ten home runs and a 47/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AAA Oklahoma City (plus .260/.329/.377 over 37 major league games), his second straight season with an OPS above .800 and a strikeout rate below 13% at AAA. He has exceptional contact ability that enables him to put even the fastest fastballs and best breaking balls in play, and that makes his moderate power play up. He'll never be a 25-30 homer bat in the majors, but he'll post on-base percentages well north of .350 while his cannon arm will enable him to play good defense in right field. He's ready now, and somebody just needs to find him some playing time. Please. 23 year old Will Smith (not to be confused with Giants reliever Will Smith or with rapper/actor Will Smith) slashed .264/.358/.532 at AA Tulsa before slumping to just .138/.206/.218 at Oklahoma City in 2018, totaling 20 home runs and a 112/43 strikeout to walk ratio and a composite .233/.322/.455 line over 98 games between the two levels. He's not your typical catcher because he has some speed (he has 15 stolen bases in 18 career attempts in the minors) and can actually play the infield if you ask him, but the Dodgers are perfectly content keeping him behind the plate, where he is above average defensively. While the bat was considered a little light early in his career, his big run through the AA Texas League this year has boosted his stock and bumped him from likely back-up to possible starter. The slump in AAA was enough to temper expectations a little bit, but if the Dodgers don't acquire Realmuto or another catcher before the season, Smith absolutely has a shot to take over as the starting catcher at some point in 2019 if he makes the necessary adjustments. Don't expect high batting averages, but he should be able to produce just enough. 24 year old Edwin Rios has hit and hit everywhere he has been in the minors, including a .304/.355/.482 slash line with ten home runs and a 110/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at Oklahoma City this year. The power was a bit down after he blasted 27 and 24 home runs in 2016 and 2017, respectively, and so far he has proven that his aggressive approach does not stop him from producing against high level pitching. He'll have to continue producing because he is limited to first base defensively, and while he's more likely a platoon bat than a future starter, he might get a chance to do some damage at the major league level if traded to another, shallower team. If his plate discipline holds up just enough, he should be able to slug 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages. Moving down a level, 20 year old Keibert Ruiz gives the Dodgers another high level catching prospect, and his ceiling is even higher than Smith's. In 2018, Ruiz slashed .268/.328/.401 with 12 home runs and a 33/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Tulsa, primarily showing excellent plate discipline for a kid who just turned 20 mid-season. He makes steady contact and rarely gets fooled at the plate, and while he's not Will Smith behind it, he's good enough defensively that the Dodgers won't have to worry about moving him to a different position. How the Dodgers handle getting both Ruiz and Smith playing time in 2019 will be interesting, whether that means aggressively promoting one to the majors, holding one back in AA where they don't belong, or giving Smith more reps in the infield so Ruiz can get more starts behind the plate in AAA. Of course, one could find themselves traded and then this wouldn't be an issue. Ultimately, Ruiz projects as a starting catcher who can post high on-base percentages while hitting 15-20 home runs per season, and at his best he could be an All Star. 21 year old Gavin Lux had a breakout year in 2018 and has pushed himself near the top of the Dodgers' prospect rankings, having slashed .324/.399/.514 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and an 88/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa. He's the complete package as a player, showing power, on-base ability, plate discipline, some speed, and the ability to stick in the infield defensively, all as a kid who just turned 21 in November. While he may be forced to move to second base from shortstop (Corey Seager's presence doesn't help Lux's chances there anyways), he has the bat to profile there and has All Star upside. 23 year old DJ Peters slashed .236/.320/.473 with 29 home runs and a 192/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games with Tulsa, showing tremendous power from a 6'6" frame and pushing his career minor league home run total to 69 over 330 games. He strikes out a ton and will need to seriously cut down on his swing and miss tendency, but he has the kind of power than will play and play well in the majors if he can get to it enough. His cannon arm offsets his so-so range in the outfield, and it will be interesting to see whether Peters can improve his approach enough to make an impact with the Dodgers. Lastly, 24 year old Errol Robinson, an Ole Miss product with a great name, slashed .247/.309/.353 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games with Tulsa, looking like a solid utility infield prospect at this point. The bat is a little bit too light to envision him starting, but he is competent enough at the plate and plays good enough defense all over the infield to stick on major league benches for a while.

High Minors Pitchers: RHP Dennis Santana, RHP Josh Sborz, RHP Dustin May, RHP Tony Gonsolin, RHP Mitchell White, RHP Yadier Alvarez, and RHP Marshall Kasowski
The Dodgers bring a ton of pitching to the table, especially in the high minors, where their army of right handers includes high ceiling arms, pitchability guys, and relievers. 22 year old Dennis Santana is a converted shortstop who posted a 2.54 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 65/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, also reaching the major leagues for one rough start at Coors Field. A shoulder injury cut his season short in June, but his mid 90's fastball and good slider combined with improving command give him enough in his arsenal to succeed in the majors today, and assuming health, his floor at this point is as an effective big league reliever. If he can return healthy in 2019 and improve his changeup, he has a real shot at becoming a mid-rotation starter. 25 year old Josh Sborz, who played high school baseball one town away from me in Virginia at the same time I was playing junior varsity, is just about major league ready after posting a 3.88 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 71/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.1 innings at Tulsa and Oklahoma City. He's purely a relief prospect but brings a mid 90's fastball and a good slider to the table while also adding a changeup, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he won't just leave meatballs over the plate against major league hitters. He should be up and contributing in 2019. Now, 21 year old Dustin May is easily the top pitching prospect in the system, finishing up a 2018 where he posted a 3.39 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between High A Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa. The 6'6" Texan has the best combination of stuff and command in the system, bringing a low to mid 90's fastball that induces plenty of ground balls, a hard cutter that gives hitters a slightly different look, a big curveball, and a changeup. However, unlike most young, lanky fireballers with deep arsenals, he can actually command everything pretty well, and that enabled him to succeed with a 3.67 ERA and a 28/12 strikeout to walk ratio as a 20 year old in AA this past August. He'll need some more upper minors seasoning in 2019, but if everything breaks right, he has top of the rotation potential and will likely settle in as a mid-rotation starter even if everything doesn't break perfectly in his favor. Other pitching prospects such as Houston's Forrest Whitley, Philadelphia's Sixto Sanchez, and Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller may be more proven and more exciting, but May is in that second tier of pitching prospects just under the cream of the crop. 24 year old Tony Gonsolin dominated the minors statistically with a 10-2 record a, 2.60 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 155/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 innings at Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa in 2018. The 6'2" Californian throws in the mid 90's and adds a full repertoire highlighted by a nasty splitter but also including a slider and a changeup, and while he lacks pinpoint command, it's tough to keep all of those pitches straight and he does. Look for Gonsolin to develop into a potential #4 starter. 24 year old Mitchell White, another California product (San Jose), followed up a breakout 2017 with a so-so 2018, posting a 4.53 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and an 88/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings at Tulsa, bringing a devastating mid 90's fastball/hard slider combination as well as a good curveball. He doesn't miss nearly as many bats as he should because his command isn't great and he tends to leave balls over the plate and get hit, so improving that command could shoot him up prospect rankings and make him a potential mid-rotation starter. However, if he doesn't (he is 24, for what it's worth), the stuff will play very well in the bullpen and he could become a high leverage reliever. 22 year old Yadier Alvarez is a very interesting prospect who posted a 4.23 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 62/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.1 innings between Tulsa and complex level rehab, showing premium stuff with no idea where it's going. The former bonus baby who signed out of Cuba for $16 million as a 19 year old in 2015 sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 101 in short stints, adding a great slider to miss bats. However, he has struggled with command and a groin strain in 2018 certainly didn't help, and if he can't figure out how to at least guide the ball to one part of the strike zone or another (or learn how to throw a changeup), he is probably best suited in relief. There, his control problems will be masked by the fact that he'll flirt with 100 MPH and sharpen his slider even further, but his upside is so high as a starter that the Dodgers will do everything they can to keep him in the rotation. Lastly, 23 year old Marshall Kasowski had a great season in 2018 by posting a 2.09 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 111/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings at Class A Great Lakes, Rancho Cucamonga, and Tulsa, just with his sheer mid 90's velocity and high release point. His secondary stuff needs work and he's a relief-only prospect at this point, but it's hard to argue with a 42.5% strikeout rate across three levels. If the high strikeout rate isn't enough to get you interested, he survived a near-fatal car accident while in college at the University of Houston and worked his way back after transferring to West Texas A&M outside of Amarillo.

Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Jeren Kendall, C Connor Wong, 2B Jeter Downs, OF Starling Heredia, and C Diego Cartaya
The Dodgers aren't as deep in the low minors as they are in the upper levels when it comes to hitters, with most of the guys down there looking more like wild cards than bona fide prospects, though this group could produce some real value when it's all said and done. 22 year old Jeren Kendall had a disappointing season where he slashed .215/.300/.356 with 12 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 158/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga, which is already a hitter-friendly context. His strengths, namely speed and outfield defense, are very apparent, as is his main weaknesses, contact. He strikes out so much (32% in 2018) that he struggles to get to what could be above average raw power in time, though fortunately his decently high walk rate (10.5%) is enough to keep him afloat for now. Kendall's defense and draft stock (first rounder, 23rd overall out of Vanderbilt in 2017) will buy his bat plenty of time, but if he doesn't start making contact soon, he'll be a first round bust. 22 year old Connor Wong, taken two rounds after Kendall in the 2017 draft out of Houston (third round, 100th overall), has gotten off to the hotter start and slashed .269/.350/.480 with 19 home runs, six stolen bases, and a 138/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at Rancho Cucamonga. Wong, like Will Smith (referenced in upper minors hitters section), is an athletic catcher who could also play the infield in a pinch, though his behind-the-plate defense is a bit behind Smith's. Wong has an average bat that produces average power and could use a little work when it comes to plate discipline, but for a catcher, that will play. He more likely has a back-up catcher or even super utility future, though improvement in the plate discipline department could improve his chances of starting one day. 20 year old Jeter Downs, acquired from the Reds in the crazy Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade, is probably the best prospect in this section after slashing .257/.351/.402 with 13 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Class A. He was also a member of that 2017 draft (competitive balance round, 32nd overall out of a Miami area high school) and while none of his tools stand out, he also doesn't really have any weaknesses. He shows average power and average contact ability but adds to his offensive profile with good plate discipline, and he makes up for his average infield defense with a grinder attitude, so while second base looks like his most likely long-term home, he'll make it as difficult as he can for the Dodgers to keep him off shortstop. His upside is that of a starting second baseman, though I find it unlikely that he'll end up a true impact bat. 19 year old Starling Heredia was signed out of the Dominican Republic for $2.6 million in 2015 but aside from glimpses in the rookie level Pioneer League in 2017, he hasn't lived up to his billing. In 2018, he slashed .192/.260/.332 with seven home runs and a 92/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, mostly at Class A Great Lakes, struggling to get to his big raw power much at all. He was young for the Midwest League but not crazy young, and he'll need more time their in 2019 to hone his approach. His upside remains very high, though the risk is just as high and he has a lot of work to do to reach that ceiling. Lastly, 17 year old Diego Cartaya is yet to step on a minor league field, but the Venezuelan catcher signed for $2.5 million and gives the Dodgers yet another potential starting catcher down on the farm. He's unremarkable but competent as a hitter, and when you're a plus defensive catcher like he is, competence is all you need at the plate. That good defense will give the bat plenty of time to develop, and as a kid who will spend the whole 2019 season at 17 years old, anything could happen with the bat.

Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Edwin Uceta, RHP Gerardo Carrillo, RHP Josiah Gray, LHP John Rooney, and RHP Braydon Fisher
As with the hitters, the Dodgers have more exciting talent up near the majors ,but there is more upside in the low minors in terms of pitching than there is in terms of hitting. 21 year old Edwin Uceta finds himself right in the middle of the minor league rung, having posted a 3.89 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings at Class A Great Lakes and High A Rancho Cucamonga, though he showed much better at the lower level (3.25 ERA, 103/27 K/BB) than at the higher one (6.97 ERA, 28/12 K/BB). Uceta is six feet tall and listed at just 155 pounds, but the small right hander brings pretty good control of pretty good stuff to the table with a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and an advanced changeup. That combination of stuff and command proved to be too much for Class A hitters, and while High A hitters had an easier time putting it in play, just a little sharpening of that command should help him pass the level. While his small frame could lead to durability issues, he tossed 120.1 regular season innings in 2018 and added 5.2 shutout innings in his lone postseason start in High A (which would have brought his ERA down from 6.97 to 5.47). How he handles another full season, as well as tougher competition, in 2019 will be very telling as to where the 21 year old's future lies, with his current ceiling looking like a #3 or #4 starter. 20 year old Gerardo Carrillo is another little righty coming in at the same height and weight as Uceta, and he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 50/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings at Great Lakes and complex ball. His stuff is actually better than Uceta's, with a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a good changeup, though both Uceta's command and durability are a bit more proven than Carrillo's at this point. His future is even tougher to predict than Uceta's, but his upside is arguably higher and a very possible breakout season in 2019 could push him way up the Dodgers' prospect rankings, assuming health. 21 year old Josiah Gray, over from the Reds with Jeter Downs in the Yasiel Puig trade, posted a 2.58 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 59/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings in rookie ball after being drafted in the competitive balance round (72nd overall) out of Le Moyne in 2018. He's actually very new to pitching after converting from shortstop in college, and his fresh arm produces low to mid 90's fastballs that pair nicely with a good slider. He's still learning the finer aspects of pitching, such as a changeup and good command, though his control is already coming along nicely and he was very young for a college junior anyways. There is still reliever risk if he can't develop that changeup, but Gray, like Carrillo, has breakout potential for 2019 if his command develops as hoped. 22 year old John Rooney was also a product of the 2018 draft (third round, 104th overall out of Hofstra), earning his draft status with a monster junior season (8-2, 1.23 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 108/27 K/BB in 95 IP). He followed that up with a 1.80 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 21/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings between complex ball and Great Lakes, adding 2.2 shutout innings in the Midwest League playoffs. Rooney is a 6'5" lefty and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but his good slider and command, as well as his height, help both play up. He looks like a prototypical back-end starter at this point and could move fairly quickly in that capacity if his command holds up and he stays healthy. Lastly, the Dodgers took now-18 year old Braydon Fisher with their next pick in the 2018 draft, scooping him up out of a Houston area high school in the fourth round before he posted a 2.05 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings in complex ball. Fisher, who was young for his class with a July birthday, brings great pure stuff with a low 90's fastball and a good slider, and at 6'4" with a quick arm, he has plenty of projection. I really liked this pick on draft day and I think Fisher has the stuff and upside to profile as at least a mid-rotation starter if not a #2 guy at best. He has a lot of work to do in refining his delivery and getting more consistent with his control, but I really like the upside. He'll still be a teenager through mid-season 2020, so while he may not break out immediately, he's a name to track.