First 5 rounds: Jonathan India (1-5), Lyon Richardson (2-47), Josiah Gray (CBB-72), Bren Spillane (3-82), Mike Siani (4-109), Ryan Campbell (5-139)
Also notable: Jay Schuyler (7-199), Andrew McDonald (9-259), Michael Byrne (14-409)
The Reds made some picks I liked and some I didn't, but overall they grabbed some good talent here. There's a lot of upside in this class, and they did a good job of getting a little bit of everything, taking one player from each of the four major demographic groups (high school hitter/pitcher, college hitter/pitcher) in their first five picks. Even though I don't like some of the picks, I like the overall class here and Reds fans should be happy with the haul.
1-5: 3B Jonathan India (my rank: 12)
I had India ranked outside the top ten, but considering how much they saved in signing him, it's hard to fault the Reds for going under slot to sign the most productive hitter in college baseball. In 68 games, many of which were against college baseball's toughest competition in the SEC, the Florida Gator third baseman slashed .350/.497/.717 with 21 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 56/60 strikeout to walk ratio. College pitching, even its best, clearly has nothing on him, and he even homered off of #1 overall pick Casey Mize. Right now, despite the huge power surge and relatively high 18.7% strikeout rate during his junior season, his hit tool to me looks to be ahead of his power, and I see him as likely to post high on-base percentages (he also walked in 20% of his plate appearances). He generates his power through a quick, short swing, though it didn't show up until this season (slugged .440 and .429 in first two seasons) and it didn't show up with wood bats in the Cape Cod League (.281/.397/.398, 1 HR over two years). I'm not sure if he made whatever change that gave him more power before or after the Cape, but I'm not entirely sure all that power translates to wood bats. My guess is that India ends up hitting 20 home runs per year with on-base percentages around .370, which is All Star level. He signed for just under $5.3 million, coming in just about $650,000 under slot. In his first game in the rookie level Appalachian League, he went 0-2 but walked twice.
2-47: RHP Lyon Richardson (my rank: 89)
I'm not as big a fan of this pick. Richardson is a 6'2" high school right hander from Port St. Lucie, Florida with a live arm that can dial his fastball up to 97. The arm strength is what the Reds are buying here, as it's something you often can't teach, while the rest of his game is something you can teach. Unfortunately, he doesn't have much going for the rest of his game. I couldn't find much video before the draft, but his slider is a work in progress and his changeup is just getting started, so the Reds are gambling a lot on those secondaries. His control is average, and at 6'2", he lacks some of the projection of some of his counterparts. Still, you can't teach arm strength as much as other skills, and Richardson has it. He signed for nearly $2 million, nearly $500,000 over slot, and has allowed six runs in four innings with a 5/4 strikeout to walk ratio in the Appalachian League.
CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (my rank: 106)
Because they saved money on Gray, I don't mind this pick. He's a 6'1" righty out of DII Le Moyne College in Syracuse, but he didn't actually begin pitching until last year, his sophomore year. He was originally recruited as a light hitting shortstop, but Le Moyne liked his arm strength and struck gold. In 13 starts this year, he went 11-0 with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio, completely overwhelming low level DII competition. He throws low to mid 90's and can easily blow it by DII hitters, and his slider is steadily improving. His command is coming together, but it's still a work in progress, and his changeup is virtually non-existent like Richardson's. He's very raw, especially for a college pitcher, but he is one of the youngest college juniors in the class and doesn't turn 21 until December, which buys him some time. He signed for $772,500, which is $65,200 below slot, and he has allowed three runs in 11 innings (2.45 ERA) on five hits, two walks, and 11 strikeouts so far in the Appalachian League.
3-82: OF Bren Spillane (unranked)
I was very aware of Spillane before the draft, but chose not to include him in the rankings because I'm not his biggest fan. Like India, he put up exceptional numbers this year, but I just don't think his game translates well to pro ball. Through 50 games for Illinois, he slashed .389/.498/.903 with 23 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio against pretty good Big 10 competition. Clearly, college pitching has nothing on him, though he didn't get the chance to face much of college baseball's best (Indiana's Jonathan Stiever, #94 on my list, was probably the best arm he faced, going 1-5 with a double and a pair of walks in two games). The reason I don't think his power will play up is that a) his swing is long, and b) he doesn't have much bat speed. He'll have a tough time catching up to the high heat he'll see in the upper levels of the minors. I also see his power coming more from strength than from bat speed, and it will be tougher to muscle balls out with wood bats than with metal unless he can barrel up fastballs consistently and use their velocity. Despite being 6'5" and big, he actually can run a little, meaning he won't be a liability in a corner outfield spot. He signed for $597,500, which is $118,500 below slot, and he is slashing .261/.397/.500 with a pair of home runs and a 25/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 16 games in the rookie level Pioneer League.
4-109: OF Mike Siani (my rank: 34)
Obviously, this is a great pick for the Reds. He's universally regarded as at least a second or third round talent, but fell to the fourth round due to signability, and the Reds were able to grab him for a large over slot bonus. Personally, I'm higher than most on him, as you can tell by the ranking. He's a high school outfielder from Philadelphia, one who obviously doesn't get the opportunity to practice year round like his southern counterparts. He's mostly projection at this point, though at 6'1" and sturdily built, it's more skill projection than physical projection. Siani's main value is on defense, as he can stick in center field with well above average arm strength and range. He's more of a project on offense, where he is just an average hitter, but I think he can improve. He gets the bat on the ball enough, and he has done a good job in adding loft to his swing, so I think once he puts it together and can start barreling the ball up and turning on pitches, he could be a 15-20 homer bat with a high enough on-base percentage to give him the chance to steal 20 bases per season. That doesn't sound extremely exciting as a ceiling, but when you combine that with great defense, it's a very valuable player any team would like to have. He signed for $2 million, which was nearly $1.5 million above slot, and he has two singles in seven at bats with one strikeout in his first two games in the Appalachian League.
9-259: RHP Andrew McDonald (unranked)
McDonald was a fifth year senior at Virginia Tech, one who I got to watch plenty over the years. He's a 6'6" right hander with a low 90's fastball and a pretty good breaking ball, though inconsistency in both his velocity and his command have kept him from posting good numbers at Tech. This past year was his best as a Hokie, as he went 1-8 with a 4.45 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 67/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 54.2 innings. If pro coaching can help him get his delivery under control, as he often struggled to repeat it in Blacksburg, he could even start at the major league level, but he will take a lot of work and turns 24 over the offseason. Essentially, if he responds to mechanical changes quickly, he's a good pick, but if he takes time to get everything together, there isn't a lot of time on his prospect clock. Interestingly, the Reds also spent their 9th round pick on a Virginia Tech pitcher last year with lefty Packy Naughton, though he was the 257th pick while McDonald was 259th. McDonald signed for $7,500, which is $155,100 below slot. Through six appearances in the Pioneer League, he has allowed eight runs (six earned) in 7.1 innings (7.36 ERA) on eight hits, eight walks, and nine strikeouts.
Others: 5th rounder Ryan Campbell was a senior out of the University of Illinois-Chicago, finishing the year 7-3 with a 1.53 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 68/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings. The 6'3" righty got his outs by commanding his pitches and inducing weak contact, and he'll need to continue to have sharp command to make it as a starter in the minor league system. 7th rounder Jay Schuyler was the University of San Diego's catcher, slashing .342/.414/.493 with seven home runs and a 30/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 55 games. I haven't heard anything about his defense but he has an advanced approach at the plate and puts the ball in play regularly, striking out in just 12% of his plate appearances while posting an OPS over .900. 14th rounder Michael Byrne is a great day three find, and while he required the Reds to spend $132,500 against their bonus pool, he could really help them soon. Byrne was the relief ace for Florida, posting a 1.61 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 64/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings, often going more than one inning in relief. He was also excellent on the Cape (0.69 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 13/4 K/BB), and he's a guy who should move quickly through the minors. Byrne is a 6'2" righty who throws his fastball around 90, which is very slow for a supposedly elite reliever, but he gets away with it due to its movement, deception, and his command of it. When it's moving and he places it right where he wants to around the zone, it's tough to square up, but his command will have to remain tight if he wants to make it to the majors.
Sunday, July 8, 2018
Saturday, July 7, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Chicago Cubs
First 5 rounds: Nico Hoerner (1-24), Brennen Davis (2-62), Cole Roederer (2-77), Paul Richan (2-78), Jimmy Herron (3-98), Ethan Roberts (4-128), Andy Weber (5-158)
Also notable: D.J. Artis (7-218), Riley Thompson (11-338)
The Cubs took an unconventional approach to this draft, because even though they had five picks of the first 100 picks, they really only grabbed one guy who was widely considered a top 100 prospect, and I even think that pick (Nico Hoerner) was a reach. They grabbed two high schoolers early on with tremendous ceilings and a lot of work to do to get there, as well as quite a few college players with high floors. It's hard to call this a bad draft from the outset, because they must really believe in Brennen Davis' and Cole Roederer's ceilings, in which case they could prove to be steals. However, whenever you buck consensus and take under the radar guys, there's a lot of pressure to get it right. We'll see how this draft goes, but I think it actually hinges more on Davis and Roederer than on Hoerner.
1-24: SS Nico Hoerner (my rank: 64)
Most analysts had Hoerner in the 35-50 range, and I in particular am not a big Hoerner fan, so it's safe to say I don't like this pick, especially for a farm system lacking impact talent. Hoerner is an infielder out of Stanford, coming off a junior season where he slashed .349/.394/.502 with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 22/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. His profile revolves around his hit tool, which is elite, but I'm afraid there's not enough else in the profile to justify a first round pick. Though he can put the bat to the ball with anybody in the class save for Nick Madrigal, striking out in just 8.7% of his plate appearances this year, he doesn't walk much (7.5%) and that eats into his on-base percentage. He has a stocky build at about 6' (height listed at 5'11" or 6'1" depending on the source but he looks short) and has hit just three home runs in 167 career games at Stanford, though some people think he can add more power. They'll point to his compact build, .300/.356/.456 line (6 HR) in the Cape Cod League this past spring, and room for improvement in his swing. Personally, I can see a way to add loft to his swing and tap into that power, but I think it's far from a given and it wouldn't be a small change. Having those great bat to ball skills would help him with such a change, but it's definitely not a certainty. He's a good defender and could stick at short, though second base is a likelihood. Overall, he just seems like he has the upside of an average middle infielder, and I don't like that for the first round. He signed for just over $2.7 million, right at slot. He's off to a hot start in six games between the rookie level Arizona League and the short season level Northwest League, slashing .350/.500/.600 with a pair of home runs, four stolen bases, and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio.
2-62: OF Brennen Davis (unranked)
Davis was viewed more as a third to fifth round pick, but the Cubs obviously liked his ceiling enough to take him here in the second round. He's one of those guys where the sky is the limit but an outright flop is very possible. He's a 6'4" high school outfielder from the Phoenix suburbs with tons of tools but a long way to go in terms of refinement. He's very lean and has a lot of room to add good weight, and he's extremely fast with a good arm, but that's about it in terms of the right now. His swing is quick and could produce plenty of power from the right side down the road, but he's very raw, will need some mechanical changes, and doesn't have the contact ability yet to help with those changes. He can stick in center field, which buys the bat time, but he has a long way to go to reach his ceiling. He signed for $1.1 million, which was $39,100 above slot. He has played two games in the Arizona League and has two singles in five at bats, striking out once, walking once, and stealing a base.
2-77: OF Cole Roederer (unranked)
Roederer, a high schooler from Newhall, California, is way off the beaten path, unranked on MLB.com's top 200 or on Fangraphs' top 130 and coming in at #161 on the Baseball America 500. It's hard to find much information on him, but from video he has a quick swing that will need to be altered significantly, as it's flat and features a short follow through. He's fast, with the chance to stick in center field, and he's s left handed hitter, so the upside is definitely here. Like with Davis, it's a risky pick, though I think Davis' upside is better. He signed for $1.2 million, which is $424,900 above slot. In his first game in the Arizona League, he had one single in four at bats while walking and stealing a base.
2-78: RHP Paul Richan (unranked)
Richan graduated from the same Hart High School in Newhall as Roederer, though he was just drafted as a junior out of the University of San Diego. On the surface, his 2017 season looked better (5-2, 3.05 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 73/21 K/BB) but his peripherals actually suggested he was better in 2018 (4-6, 4.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 101/13 K/BB). The 6'2" right hander has a full arsenal that helped him keep college hitters off balance and get tons of strikeouts, throwing a low 90's fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup. The Cubs will try to develop him as a back-end starter, one who relies on command and mixing his pitches more than he does on stuff. He signed for $450,000, which is $312,900 under slot, and he threw two shutout innings on one hit, no walks, and five strikeouts in his Northwest League debut.
3-98: OF Jimmy Herron (unranked)
Herron, an outfielder from Duke, isn't a high ceiling guy so much as he is a high floor guy. He has been a three year performer, batting over .300 with an on-base percentage over .410 and a slugging percentage over .430 in each of his three seasons in Durham. This year, he slashed .304/.419/.460 with five home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 28/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 63 games, showing speed, on-base ability, and plate discipline. He also hit very well in the Cape Cod League (.338/.443/.481, 4 HR, 26/20 K/BB), which certainly bodes well for him at the next level. Herron profiles as the kind of guy who will have less trouble than most adjusting to new levels due to his advanced approach at the plate, and while he is likely a fourth outfielder, he has the potential to be a starting center fielder if he can add power. He signed for $520,000, which is $50,600 below slot, but he'll miss the remainder of the season and likely part of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
7-218: OF D.J. Artis (unranked)
I'm throwing Artis in this section because I got the opportunity to watch him play against Virginia Tech during the season. Like Herron, he's a speedy center fielder, offering the same amount of ceiling four rounds later but a bit less safety. He was great as a sophomore last year at Liberty (.359/.532/.552, 6 HR, 23 SB, 30/62 K/BB), but saw his production drop a bit this year by slashing .292/.458/.457 with four home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 49/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. He is clearly very patient and draws a ton of walks (24.6% last year, 18% this year), giving him leadoff hitter potential if he can successfully adjust to minor league pitching. He supposedly has been getting pitched around just as much if not more this year, though he has become more impatient and chased more pitches (strikeout rate up from 11.9% to 17%). That was the case when I saw him, and he seemed a bit uncomfortable with advanced breaking stuff in that small sample. If he can get his approach back in gear, his exceptional on-base percentages and great speed will help him steal tons of bases. He signed for $250,000, which is $57,500 above slot, and he is 0-2 with a walk and a strikeout in the Arizona League so far.
Others: 4th rounder Ethan Roberts, a 5'11" right handed pitcher, was the first player drafted off a Tennessee Tech team more known for its offense than its pitching, but he still turned in a very good year. As Tennessee Tech's most important relieve, he went 6-1 with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 103/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, often going two, three, or even four innings. He'll likely be a reliever in the Cubs system and could be one of the first 2018 draftees up in the majors. 5th rounder Andy Weber comes from UVA, finishing his junior year with a .344/.415/.536 line, five home runs, and a 32/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games. He's a second baseman with overall average tools at the plate, one who could be a utility man in the majors but who could surprise with some power if he puts more into his free and easy swing. 11th rounder Riley Thompson is a 6'3" righty out of Louisville who had an awful year for the Cardinals, going 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and a 35/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 innings. He throws very hard, consistently in the mid 90's as a starter and into the upper 90's as a reliever, and his curve looks good at times too, but command and inconsistency in that secondary stuff has done him in. He has the stamina to start but may be pushed to the bullpen if he can't get everything else together, where his fastball/curveball combination will play up.
Also notable: D.J. Artis (7-218), Riley Thompson (11-338)
The Cubs took an unconventional approach to this draft, because even though they had five picks of the first 100 picks, they really only grabbed one guy who was widely considered a top 100 prospect, and I even think that pick (Nico Hoerner) was a reach. They grabbed two high schoolers early on with tremendous ceilings and a lot of work to do to get there, as well as quite a few college players with high floors. It's hard to call this a bad draft from the outset, because they must really believe in Brennen Davis' and Cole Roederer's ceilings, in which case they could prove to be steals. However, whenever you buck consensus and take under the radar guys, there's a lot of pressure to get it right. We'll see how this draft goes, but I think it actually hinges more on Davis and Roederer than on Hoerner.
1-24: SS Nico Hoerner (my rank: 64)
Most analysts had Hoerner in the 35-50 range, and I in particular am not a big Hoerner fan, so it's safe to say I don't like this pick, especially for a farm system lacking impact talent. Hoerner is an infielder out of Stanford, coming off a junior season where he slashed .349/.394/.502 with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 22/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. His profile revolves around his hit tool, which is elite, but I'm afraid there's not enough else in the profile to justify a first round pick. Though he can put the bat to the ball with anybody in the class save for Nick Madrigal, striking out in just 8.7% of his plate appearances this year, he doesn't walk much (7.5%) and that eats into his on-base percentage. He has a stocky build at about 6' (height listed at 5'11" or 6'1" depending on the source but he looks short) and has hit just three home runs in 167 career games at Stanford, though some people think he can add more power. They'll point to his compact build, .300/.356/.456 line (6 HR) in the Cape Cod League this past spring, and room for improvement in his swing. Personally, I can see a way to add loft to his swing and tap into that power, but I think it's far from a given and it wouldn't be a small change. Having those great bat to ball skills would help him with such a change, but it's definitely not a certainty. He's a good defender and could stick at short, though second base is a likelihood. Overall, he just seems like he has the upside of an average middle infielder, and I don't like that for the first round. He signed for just over $2.7 million, right at slot. He's off to a hot start in six games between the rookie level Arizona League and the short season level Northwest League, slashing .350/.500/.600 with a pair of home runs, four stolen bases, and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio.
2-62: OF Brennen Davis (unranked)
Davis was viewed more as a third to fifth round pick, but the Cubs obviously liked his ceiling enough to take him here in the second round. He's one of those guys where the sky is the limit but an outright flop is very possible. He's a 6'4" high school outfielder from the Phoenix suburbs with tons of tools but a long way to go in terms of refinement. He's very lean and has a lot of room to add good weight, and he's extremely fast with a good arm, but that's about it in terms of the right now. His swing is quick and could produce plenty of power from the right side down the road, but he's very raw, will need some mechanical changes, and doesn't have the contact ability yet to help with those changes. He can stick in center field, which buys the bat time, but he has a long way to go to reach his ceiling. He signed for $1.1 million, which was $39,100 above slot. He has played two games in the Arizona League and has two singles in five at bats, striking out once, walking once, and stealing a base.
2-77: OF Cole Roederer (unranked)
Roederer, a high schooler from Newhall, California, is way off the beaten path, unranked on MLB.com's top 200 or on Fangraphs' top 130 and coming in at #161 on the Baseball America 500. It's hard to find much information on him, but from video he has a quick swing that will need to be altered significantly, as it's flat and features a short follow through. He's fast, with the chance to stick in center field, and he's s left handed hitter, so the upside is definitely here. Like with Davis, it's a risky pick, though I think Davis' upside is better. He signed for $1.2 million, which is $424,900 above slot. In his first game in the Arizona League, he had one single in four at bats while walking and stealing a base.
2-78: RHP Paul Richan (unranked)
Richan graduated from the same Hart High School in Newhall as Roederer, though he was just drafted as a junior out of the University of San Diego. On the surface, his 2017 season looked better (5-2, 3.05 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 73/21 K/BB) but his peripherals actually suggested he was better in 2018 (4-6, 4.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 101/13 K/BB). The 6'2" right hander has a full arsenal that helped him keep college hitters off balance and get tons of strikeouts, throwing a low 90's fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup. The Cubs will try to develop him as a back-end starter, one who relies on command and mixing his pitches more than he does on stuff. He signed for $450,000, which is $312,900 under slot, and he threw two shutout innings on one hit, no walks, and five strikeouts in his Northwest League debut.
3-98: OF Jimmy Herron (unranked)
Herron, an outfielder from Duke, isn't a high ceiling guy so much as he is a high floor guy. He has been a three year performer, batting over .300 with an on-base percentage over .410 and a slugging percentage over .430 in each of his three seasons in Durham. This year, he slashed .304/.419/.460 with five home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 28/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 63 games, showing speed, on-base ability, and plate discipline. He also hit very well in the Cape Cod League (.338/.443/.481, 4 HR, 26/20 K/BB), which certainly bodes well for him at the next level. Herron profiles as the kind of guy who will have less trouble than most adjusting to new levels due to his advanced approach at the plate, and while he is likely a fourth outfielder, he has the potential to be a starting center fielder if he can add power. He signed for $520,000, which is $50,600 below slot, but he'll miss the remainder of the season and likely part of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
7-218: OF D.J. Artis (unranked)
I'm throwing Artis in this section because I got the opportunity to watch him play against Virginia Tech during the season. Like Herron, he's a speedy center fielder, offering the same amount of ceiling four rounds later but a bit less safety. He was great as a sophomore last year at Liberty (.359/.532/.552, 6 HR, 23 SB, 30/62 K/BB), but saw his production drop a bit this year by slashing .292/.458/.457 with four home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 49/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. He is clearly very patient and draws a ton of walks (24.6% last year, 18% this year), giving him leadoff hitter potential if he can successfully adjust to minor league pitching. He supposedly has been getting pitched around just as much if not more this year, though he has become more impatient and chased more pitches (strikeout rate up from 11.9% to 17%). That was the case when I saw him, and he seemed a bit uncomfortable with advanced breaking stuff in that small sample. If he can get his approach back in gear, his exceptional on-base percentages and great speed will help him steal tons of bases. He signed for $250,000, which is $57,500 above slot, and he is 0-2 with a walk and a strikeout in the Arizona League so far.
Others: 4th rounder Ethan Roberts, a 5'11" right handed pitcher, was the first player drafted off a Tennessee Tech team more known for its offense than its pitching, but he still turned in a very good year. As Tennessee Tech's most important relieve, he went 6-1 with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 103/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, often going two, three, or even four innings. He'll likely be a reliever in the Cubs system and could be one of the first 2018 draftees up in the majors. 5th rounder Andy Weber comes from UVA, finishing his junior year with a .344/.415/.536 line, five home runs, and a 32/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games. He's a second baseman with overall average tools at the plate, one who could be a utility man in the majors but who could surprise with some power if he puts more into his free and easy swing. 11th rounder Riley Thompson is a 6'3" righty out of Louisville who had an awful year for the Cardinals, going 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and a 35/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 innings. He throws very hard, consistently in the mid 90's as a starter and into the upper 90's as a reliever, and his curve looks good at times too, but command and inconsistency in that secondary stuff has done him in. He has the stamina to start but may be pushed to the bullpen if he can't get everything else together, where his fastball/curveball combination will play up.
Thursday, July 5, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Washington Nationals
First 5 rounds: Mason Denaburg (1-27), Tim Cate (2-65), Reid Schaller (3-101), Jake Irvin (4-131), Gage Canning (5-161)
Also notable: Chandler Day (7-221), Tyler Cropley (8-251), Carson Shaddy (10-311), Aaron Fletcher (14-431), Jacob Rhinesmith (18-551), Cole Wilcox (37-1121)
I'll go a little bit more in depth with this one since I'm a Nationals fan based in Virginia where a lot of my readership is as well. Like last year, the Nats focused on pitching this year, taking six pitchers in the first seven rounds. They also stuck to college players, also on-brand for them, taking 31 straight from the college or JuCo ranks after selecting a high schooler with their first pick. Personally, I don't really like the pitching-heavy strategy the Nationals employ, as I feel they've been better with hitters. Guys like Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Michael A. Taylor, and Wilmer Difo are contributing at the major league level and current prospects like Carter Kieboom, Daniel Johnson, and Luis Garcia are coming along nicely. The problem though is that the Nationals have exported an entire farm system's worth of pitching prospects in the last couple seasons (Jesus Luzardo, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Nick Pivetta, McKenzie Mills, and Tyler Watson just to name a few) that the system is void of any real pitching prospects outside of Erick Fedde, Wil Crowe, Seth Romero, and maybe Ben Braymer, Nick Raquet, and Sterling Sharp.
1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (my rank: 23)
The Nationals love drafting pitchers who fall due to injury or other non-performance related problems early in the draft; see Lucas Giolito (eventual Tommy John, 2012), Erick Fedde (Tommy John, 2014), Jesus Luzardo (Tommy John, 2016), and Seth Romero (delinquency, 2017). Denaburg is the next in that line, having fallen due to biceps issues that caused him to miss a few months this spring. The 6'3" high school right handed pitcher from Merritt Island, Florida is very athletic, having the opportunity to pitch, hit, and kick (for the football team) at the University of Florida if he had turned the Nationals down. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball easily and can get it up to 97, and he also throws a curveball with good shape and a decent changeup. It's all commanded pretty well, and with some mechanical improvements, he could have above average to plus command in the end. Adding power to his curveball and drop to his changeup, along with the improved command, could make him a #2 starter or even an ace. While that sounds like a lot to improve on, being only three steps forward from ace potential is great for the back of the first round, especially when we're talking about a high schooler that is still just 18. Even two of those three adjustments could make him a mid-rotation starter, and it would really only take one to get him to the majors in some capacity. He signed for $3 million, which is $527,300 above slot, though the Nationals will move him cautiously until he proves he is past the biceps issues.
2-65: LHP Tim Cate (my rank: 71)
While Cate is one of the more well-known names in this part of the draft, he was somewhat hard to get a read on due to inconsistency. The UConn ace had his best year as a freshman in 2016 (5-1, 2.73 ERA, 101/27 K/BB) before regressing a bit as a sophomore (4-3, 3.33 ERA, 102/31 K/BB) and missing some time as a junior (5-4, 2.91 ERA, 67/19 K/BB). The 6' lefty lacks much projection on the mound due to his shorter stature, but the present stuff is pretty good. He throws a fastball in the low 90's but his real weapon is an excellent curveball with both depth and power, one which he can throw in any count. He has a changeup too, and if he can improve it, that will be a very effective three pitch arsenal. The problem with him is consistency, as his stuff has generally remained stable, but his command has wobbled considerably. When the command isn't on, he falls behind in the count and his stuff becomes more hittable, leading to too many base runners. He has had stretches where his command was in place, and in those stretches he looked like a potential top 50 pick or even a first rounder. Clearly, the key for him will be to get more consistent with that command, and he could push through as a #3 starter. One bonus is that he is very young for his class, not turning 21 until September, which would buy him time if the forearm issues that were bothering him flare back up. He signed for $986,200, right at slot, and he has allowed just one run on two hits, one walk, and four strikeouts in five innings so far in the short season New York-Penn League.
3-101: RHP Reid Schaller (unranked)
I liked the Denaburg pick and wasn't opposed to the Cate pick, but I'm not so sure about this one. Schaller is a high ceiling, low floor right hander out of Vanderbilt who missed all of his freshman season in 2017 with Tommy John surgery and didn't pitch all that much this year. In 21 games (2 starts), the 6'3" righty put up a 3.77 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 39/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 28.2 innings. Used mostly in relief, he throws a mid 90's fastball that can touch 98 and his slider can be a plus pitch at times. However, his command isn't all that great and the slider is inconsistent, so he can get blown up on occasion. The Nationals may try to run him out as a starter, where his fastball would probably dip down into the low 90's, but his slider and command will really have to take steps forward for that to work and he'll also have to develop a changeup. At this point, he looks like a reliever, and one with some risk to it, so I'm not a fan of this pick. Schaller signed for $555,100, right at slot, and he threw two perfect innings with three strikeouts in his rookie level Gulf Coast League debut.
4-131: RHP Jake Irvin (unranked)
Irvin is a 6'6" right hander who has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Oklahoma. This year, he finished 6-2 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 115/28 strikeout to walk ratio, all career bests. Though he has made 38 starts over three seasons in Norman, he's just a two pitch guy at this point with a fastball and a slider. That said, the fastball is in the low 90's with good run and the slider has hard, albeit early, break. Those two pitches play off each other well, and if he can add a changeup, he has a chance to stick in the back end of the rotation. If not, with his above average command, he has the floor of a major league reliever who could work his way into the later innings. If Schaller is the high ceiling, low floor pick, Irvin is the opposite. He signed for $550,000, which is $135,500 above slot.
5-161: OF Gage Canning (my rank: 93)
I like this pick a lot. Canning is an undersized outfielder out of Arizona State who finished a huge junior year slashing .369/.426/.648 with nine home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Even though he's not big, standing at 5'10", I think his power will play up at the next level and his speed can make him a multi-dimensional player. He has a very strong swing, and while his 20.5% strikeout rate was a bit high, the swing won't need much tweaking so he'll be able to focus on improving his barrel control. Right now, it's a fourth outfielder profile, but I think he could outplay that end end up a starter who hits 15-20 home runs per season while posting on base percentages in the .330-.350 range and stealing a few bases. He signed for $308,900, and he's off to a hot start. In 14 games in the New York-Penn League, he slashed .315/.373/.593 with eight extra base hits (including two home runs) and an 18/5 strikeout to walk ratio, becoming one of the first 2018 draftees to earn a promotion to Class A yesterday.
Others: 7th rounder Chandler Day, a 6'5" right hander, was a potential top 100 pick out of high school in 2015, but instead went to school at Vanderbilt and has been decent there. This year, he was 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 47/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 innings, showing strikeout ability with a complete arsenal. He's still more talent and projection than current stuff, and while top flight Vanderbilt coaching couldn't bring it all out of him, pro coaching could. He hold his own on the Cape over two years (3.89 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 42/25 K/BB). 8th rounder Tyler Cropley had a huge senior year as the catcher for Iowa, slashing .342/.449/.578 with nine home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a good defender and will stick behind the plate, and he should have the power to get at least to the upper minors. His swing is long, but it is conducive to power and helps him make the most out of his 5'11" frame, and he kept his strikeout rate down at 11.5% this year. It'll probably rise, but a catcher with power and at least the chance to hit for power is a good find in the eighth round. 10th rounder Carson Shaddy is as familiar a face as there is in Fayetteville, growing up in the town and spending four years as a regular for the University of Arkansas. The redshirt senior had his best year this year, slashing .330/.426/.609 with 13 home runs and a 63/27 strikeout to walk ratio as the Razorbacks came one out away from a National Championship. The infielder most likely has a utility ceiling, and he turns 24 in August, but Cardinals star Matt Carpenter was also drafted as a redshirt senior out of TCU. 14th rounder Aaron Fletcher had a great senior year at the University of Houston, going 7-3 with a 2.19 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 78/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings. He's more about command and deception than about velocity and stuff, sitting around 90 with his sinking fastball but hiding and commanding it well to help it play up. The 6' lefty could be a valuable reliever in the near future. 18th rounder Jacob Rhinesmith, an outfielder out of Western Kentucky who slashed .306/.383/.555 with 14 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio. He has an intriguing combination of power and speed, and when that's combined with the potential ability to play center field, it's a potential fourth outfielder in the 18th round. 37th rounder Cole Wilcox is a first round talent who slid due to signability, and he will head to Georgia rather than sign here. He's still worth writing about as a guy who could be an immediate contributor in the Bulldog rotation as a 6'5" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a good changeup, all of which he can command. He had been kicking it into another gear as the draft approached and could be a first round pick in 2021.
Also notable: Chandler Day (7-221), Tyler Cropley (8-251), Carson Shaddy (10-311), Aaron Fletcher (14-431), Jacob Rhinesmith (18-551), Cole Wilcox (37-1121)
I'll go a little bit more in depth with this one since I'm a Nationals fan based in Virginia where a lot of my readership is as well. Like last year, the Nats focused on pitching this year, taking six pitchers in the first seven rounds. They also stuck to college players, also on-brand for them, taking 31 straight from the college or JuCo ranks after selecting a high schooler with their first pick. Personally, I don't really like the pitching-heavy strategy the Nationals employ, as I feel they've been better with hitters. Guys like Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Michael A. Taylor, and Wilmer Difo are contributing at the major league level and current prospects like Carter Kieboom, Daniel Johnson, and Luis Garcia are coming along nicely. The problem though is that the Nationals have exported an entire farm system's worth of pitching prospects in the last couple seasons (Jesus Luzardo, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Nick Pivetta, McKenzie Mills, and Tyler Watson just to name a few) that the system is void of any real pitching prospects outside of Erick Fedde, Wil Crowe, Seth Romero, and maybe Ben Braymer, Nick Raquet, and Sterling Sharp.
1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (my rank: 23)
The Nationals love drafting pitchers who fall due to injury or other non-performance related problems early in the draft; see Lucas Giolito (eventual Tommy John, 2012), Erick Fedde (Tommy John, 2014), Jesus Luzardo (Tommy John, 2016), and Seth Romero (delinquency, 2017). Denaburg is the next in that line, having fallen due to biceps issues that caused him to miss a few months this spring. The 6'3" high school right handed pitcher from Merritt Island, Florida is very athletic, having the opportunity to pitch, hit, and kick (for the football team) at the University of Florida if he had turned the Nationals down. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball easily and can get it up to 97, and he also throws a curveball with good shape and a decent changeup. It's all commanded pretty well, and with some mechanical improvements, he could have above average to plus command in the end. Adding power to his curveball and drop to his changeup, along with the improved command, could make him a #2 starter or even an ace. While that sounds like a lot to improve on, being only three steps forward from ace potential is great for the back of the first round, especially when we're talking about a high schooler that is still just 18. Even two of those three adjustments could make him a mid-rotation starter, and it would really only take one to get him to the majors in some capacity. He signed for $3 million, which is $527,300 above slot, though the Nationals will move him cautiously until he proves he is past the biceps issues.
2-65: LHP Tim Cate (my rank: 71)
While Cate is one of the more well-known names in this part of the draft, he was somewhat hard to get a read on due to inconsistency. The UConn ace had his best year as a freshman in 2016 (5-1, 2.73 ERA, 101/27 K/BB) before regressing a bit as a sophomore (4-3, 3.33 ERA, 102/31 K/BB) and missing some time as a junior (5-4, 2.91 ERA, 67/19 K/BB). The 6' lefty lacks much projection on the mound due to his shorter stature, but the present stuff is pretty good. He throws a fastball in the low 90's but his real weapon is an excellent curveball with both depth and power, one which he can throw in any count. He has a changeup too, and if he can improve it, that will be a very effective three pitch arsenal. The problem with him is consistency, as his stuff has generally remained stable, but his command has wobbled considerably. When the command isn't on, he falls behind in the count and his stuff becomes more hittable, leading to too many base runners. He has had stretches where his command was in place, and in those stretches he looked like a potential top 50 pick or even a first rounder. Clearly, the key for him will be to get more consistent with that command, and he could push through as a #3 starter. One bonus is that he is very young for his class, not turning 21 until September, which would buy him time if the forearm issues that were bothering him flare back up. He signed for $986,200, right at slot, and he has allowed just one run on two hits, one walk, and four strikeouts in five innings so far in the short season New York-Penn League.
3-101: RHP Reid Schaller (unranked)
I liked the Denaburg pick and wasn't opposed to the Cate pick, but I'm not so sure about this one. Schaller is a high ceiling, low floor right hander out of Vanderbilt who missed all of his freshman season in 2017 with Tommy John surgery and didn't pitch all that much this year. In 21 games (2 starts), the 6'3" righty put up a 3.77 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 39/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 28.2 innings. Used mostly in relief, he throws a mid 90's fastball that can touch 98 and his slider can be a plus pitch at times. However, his command isn't all that great and the slider is inconsistent, so he can get blown up on occasion. The Nationals may try to run him out as a starter, where his fastball would probably dip down into the low 90's, but his slider and command will really have to take steps forward for that to work and he'll also have to develop a changeup. At this point, he looks like a reliever, and one with some risk to it, so I'm not a fan of this pick. Schaller signed for $555,100, right at slot, and he threw two perfect innings with three strikeouts in his rookie level Gulf Coast League debut.
4-131: RHP Jake Irvin (unranked)
Irvin is a 6'6" right hander who has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Oklahoma. This year, he finished 6-2 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 115/28 strikeout to walk ratio, all career bests. Though he has made 38 starts over three seasons in Norman, he's just a two pitch guy at this point with a fastball and a slider. That said, the fastball is in the low 90's with good run and the slider has hard, albeit early, break. Those two pitches play off each other well, and if he can add a changeup, he has a chance to stick in the back end of the rotation. If not, with his above average command, he has the floor of a major league reliever who could work his way into the later innings. If Schaller is the high ceiling, low floor pick, Irvin is the opposite. He signed for $550,000, which is $135,500 above slot.
5-161: OF Gage Canning (my rank: 93)
I like this pick a lot. Canning is an undersized outfielder out of Arizona State who finished a huge junior year slashing .369/.426/.648 with nine home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Even though he's not big, standing at 5'10", I think his power will play up at the next level and his speed can make him a multi-dimensional player. He has a very strong swing, and while his 20.5% strikeout rate was a bit high, the swing won't need much tweaking so he'll be able to focus on improving his barrel control. Right now, it's a fourth outfielder profile, but I think he could outplay that end end up a starter who hits 15-20 home runs per season while posting on base percentages in the .330-.350 range and stealing a few bases. He signed for $308,900, and he's off to a hot start. In 14 games in the New York-Penn League, he slashed .315/.373/.593 with eight extra base hits (including two home runs) and an 18/5 strikeout to walk ratio, becoming one of the first 2018 draftees to earn a promotion to Class A yesterday.
Others: 7th rounder Chandler Day, a 6'5" right hander, was a potential top 100 pick out of high school in 2015, but instead went to school at Vanderbilt and has been decent there. This year, he was 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 47/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 innings, showing strikeout ability with a complete arsenal. He's still more talent and projection than current stuff, and while top flight Vanderbilt coaching couldn't bring it all out of him, pro coaching could. He hold his own on the Cape over two years (3.89 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 42/25 K/BB). 8th rounder Tyler Cropley had a huge senior year as the catcher for Iowa, slashing .342/.449/.578 with nine home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a good defender and will stick behind the plate, and he should have the power to get at least to the upper minors. His swing is long, but it is conducive to power and helps him make the most out of his 5'11" frame, and he kept his strikeout rate down at 11.5% this year. It'll probably rise, but a catcher with power and at least the chance to hit for power is a good find in the eighth round. 10th rounder Carson Shaddy is as familiar a face as there is in Fayetteville, growing up in the town and spending four years as a regular for the University of Arkansas. The redshirt senior had his best year this year, slashing .330/.426/.609 with 13 home runs and a 63/27 strikeout to walk ratio as the Razorbacks came one out away from a National Championship. The infielder most likely has a utility ceiling, and he turns 24 in August, but Cardinals star Matt Carpenter was also drafted as a redshirt senior out of TCU. 14th rounder Aaron Fletcher had a great senior year at the University of Houston, going 7-3 with a 2.19 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 78/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings. He's more about command and deception than about velocity and stuff, sitting around 90 with his sinking fastball but hiding and commanding it well to help it play up. The 6' lefty could be a valuable reliever in the near future. 18th rounder Jacob Rhinesmith, an outfielder out of Western Kentucky who slashed .306/.383/.555 with 14 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio. He has an intriguing combination of power and speed, and when that's combined with the potential ability to play center field, it's a potential fourth outfielder in the 18th round. 37th rounder Cole Wilcox is a first round talent who slid due to signability, and he will head to Georgia rather than sign here. He's still worth writing about as a guy who could be an immediate contributor in the Bulldog rotation as a 6'5" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a good changeup, all of which he can command. He had been kicking it into another gear as the draft approached and could be a first round pick in 2021.
Wednesday, July 4, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies
First 5 rounds: Alec Bohm (1-3), Colton Eastman (4-107), Matt Vierling (5-137)
Also notable: Logan Simmons (6-167), Dominic Pipken (9-257), Madison Stokes (10-287), Jack Perkins (11-317), Jesse Wilkening (14-407)
The Phillies didn't have second or third round picks due to signing Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana, but they still made the most of what they had. They started off with three straight college players before using the money they saved on first rounder Alec Bohm to go significantly over slot on their seventh, ninth, twelfth, and sixteenth round picks, thereby recouping a lot of the value they lost in not having those picks. It was a well-played chess game by Phillies management this year, and they'll be able to inject some talent into a system that has been becoming top-heavy and pitching-heavy.
1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (my rank: 7)
The Phillies' system is both top-heavy and pitching-heavy, so injecting some elite offensive talent into the system here with the third overall pick works out very well for them. Bohm played third base at Wichita State, slashing .339/.436/.625 with 16 home runs and a 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 57 games, showing elite power, contact, and patience at the plate. He actually managed to hit those 16 home runs with a bit of a loopy swing that has room to add more power, and because he has such good barrel control and an eye at the plate (10.5% strikeout rate), he can make that change without sacrificing much contact. In Philadelphia, he's a guy who could hit 30-40 home runs per season while also getting on base at a .400 clip, making him a middle-of-the-order threat who could anchor this lineup as a best case scenario. His glove is nothing special, and there is a decent chance he has to move from third base to first base, but it's the bat the Phillies are buying and he has the best combination of ceiling and floor of all bats this year. He signed for $5.85 million, saving the Phillies nearly $1.1 million in bonus space. He slashed .500/.571/.667 with a 0/1 strikeout to walk ratio in five games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, but his slashing just .176/.222/.206 with a 6/1 ratio in nine games since being promoted to the short season level New York-Penn League.
4-107: RHP Colton Eastman (my rank: 76)
In the third round of the 2017 draft, the Phillies picked up a 6'3" pitchability righty out of Cal State Fullerton named Connor Seabold. In the fourth round in 2018, they grabbed a 6'3" pitchability righty out of Cal State Fullerton named Colton Eastman. It has gone well with Seabold and he's already in AA, so I guess the Phillies figured having two of the same guy would be cool. Eastman finished his junior season 10-4 with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 124 and walking 28 in 117.2 innings, and the most impressive part was that the ERA and WHIP were both career worsts. That puts his career line at 20-7, 2.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 261/64 K/BB over 250 innings. Not bad. His stuff has kind of fluctuated throughout his career, but as it stands now, his fastball doesn't get too far above 90 while his curve looks good and his changeup looks better. His fastball is a little slower than it once was, his curve is a little better, and his changeup is a little worse, but the Phillies do well with pitching and will hope to get all three pitches to the top of their potential at the same time. He doesn't have pinpoint command, but the control is well above average and it all comes together as a fairly safe back of the rotation profile. He signed for $522,900, right at slot.
5-137: OF Matt Vierling (unranked)
Vierling is one of those guys that does a little bit of everything well. At Notre Dame, he slashed .310/.402/.505 with ten home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games as a junior, showing moderate power, on-base ability, speed, and defense. He also made six appearances out of the Irish bullpen. He profiles more as a back-up at the major league level, but even a small step forward in his offensive game could make him a starting right or center fielder. He has an advanced approach at the plate, and with that moderate power, he could hit 15-20 home runs per season with on-base percentages around .350 at his best. On defense, he has a cannon arm and may have enough speed to stick in center, which would make it easier for him to start, though right field is a possibility. He signed for $380,000, which is $10,600 below slot, and has gotten off to a hot start in the minors. In 12 games in the New York-Pen League, he slashed .420/.453/.580 with a home run and a 2/3 strikeout to walk ratio, and has collected three hits in seven at bats (.429 AVG) since being promoted to Class A Lakewood.
9-257: RHP Dominic Pipken (my rank: 88)
Pipken was a top three rounds talent, but fell to the ninth because of signability. The 6'4" right hander out of high school in the East Bay north of Oakland has good present stuff and a lot of projectability. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's from an easy delivery, so it is easy to dream on mid 90's velocity when all is said and done. His offspeeds are more of a work in progress, though his slider does have good shape and could be a plus pitch with pro refinement. He doesn't have the best command at this point and has been inconsistent this spring, so it's a high risk pick, but there is high reward as well. He signed for $800,000, which is $646,400 above slot.
Others: 6th rounder Logan Simmons is an infielder out of high school in Macon, Georgia that has a high ceiling, low floor profile. A shortstop at this point, he may have to move to third base, but that's not a given. His bat is where the variance lies, as he has plenty of power from the right side but has often struggled with contact, even at the high school level. If the Phillies can streamline his swing and cut his strikeouts down significantly, he has the upside of a starting shortstop with power, but if he struggles with contact and has to move to third base, it'll be a tough road forward. His $750,000 signing bonus was $457,300 above slot. 10th rounder Madison Stokes played four years at South Carolina, finishing it off with a .322/.414/.579 slash line, 11 home runs, and a 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio in his senior season. He can play all over the field, including shortstop, and combined with his offensive profile, he has a good chance at hitting his way to a utility role in the majors. His $10,000 signing bonus also saved the Phillies $132,600 in slot space. 11th rounder Jack Perkins may not be as famous as his teammate in the Stetson rotation, Mariners first rounder Logan Gilbert, but he was nearly as effective. Over 18 games (17 starts), he went 11-3 with a 2.80 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 106 innings. He held his own in the Cape Cod League (4.97 ERA, 22/11 K/BB) and projects as a back-end starter with the potential for more if he can add velocity, considering his projectable 6'4" frame and late birthday (turns 21 in August). 14th rounder Jesse Wilkening had a breakout year as Nebraska's catcher this year, slashing .372/.445/.588 with nine home runs and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He's very capable defensively with good all around actions, and he has shown the ability to get on base and hit for some power. It's a backup catcher profile, but some steps forward at the plate could land him in a starting role.
Also notable: Logan Simmons (6-167), Dominic Pipken (9-257), Madison Stokes (10-287), Jack Perkins (11-317), Jesse Wilkening (14-407)
The Phillies didn't have second or third round picks due to signing Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana, but they still made the most of what they had. They started off with three straight college players before using the money they saved on first rounder Alec Bohm to go significantly over slot on their seventh, ninth, twelfth, and sixteenth round picks, thereby recouping a lot of the value they lost in not having those picks. It was a well-played chess game by Phillies management this year, and they'll be able to inject some talent into a system that has been becoming top-heavy and pitching-heavy.
1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (my rank: 7)
The Phillies' system is both top-heavy and pitching-heavy, so injecting some elite offensive talent into the system here with the third overall pick works out very well for them. Bohm played third base at Wichita State, slashing .339/.436/.625 with 16 home runs and a 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 57 games, showing elite power, contact, and patience at the plate. He actually managed to hit those 16 home runs with a bit of a loopy swing that has room to add more power, and because he has such good barrel control and an eye at the plate (10.5% strikeout rate), he can make that change without sacrificing much contact. In Philadelphia, he's a guy who could hit 30-40 home runs per season while also getting on base at a .400 clip, making him a middle-of-the-order threat who could anchor this lineup as a best case scenario. His glove is nothing special, and there is a decent chance he has to move from third base to first base, but it's the bat the Phillies are buying and he has the best combination of ceiling and floor of all bats this year. He signed for $5.85 million, saving the Phillies nearly $1.1 million in bonus space. He slashed .500/.571/.667 with a 0/1 strikeout to walk ratio in five games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, but his slashing just .176/.222/.206 with a 6/1 ratio in nine games since being promoted to the short season level New York-Penn League.
4-107: RHP Colton Eastman (my rank: 76)
In the third round of the 2017 draft, the Phillies picked up a 6'3" pitchability righty out of Cal State Fullerton named Connor Seabold. In the fourth round in 2018, they grabbed a 6'3" pitchability righty out of Cal State Fullerton named Colton Eastman. It has gone well with Seabold and he's already in AA, so I guess the Phillies figured having two of the same guy would be cool. Eastman finished his junior season 10-4 with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 124 and walking 28 in 117.2 innings, and the most impressive part was that the ERA and WHIP were both career worsts. That puts his career line at 20-7, 2.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 261/64 K/BB over 250 innings. Not bad. His stuff has kind of fluctuated throughout his career, but as it stands now, his fastball doesn't get too far above 90 while his curve looks good and his changeup looks better. His fastball is a little slower than it once was, his curve is a little better, and his changeup is a little worse, but the Phillies do well with pitching and will hope to get all three pitches to the top of their potential at the same time. He doesn't have pinpoint command, but the control is well above average and it all comes together as a fairly safe back of the rotation profile. He signed for $522,900, right at slot.
5-137: OF Matt Vierling (unranked)
Vierling is one of those guys that does a little bit of everything well. At Notre Dame, he slashed .310/.402/.505 with ten home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games as a junior, showing moderate power, on-base ability, speed, and defense. He also made six appearances out of the Irish bullpen. He profiles more as a back-up at the major league level, but even a small step forward in his offensive game could make him a starting right or center fielder. He has an advanced approach at the plate, and with that moderate power, he could hit 15-20 home runs per season with on-base percentages around .350 at his best. On defense, he has a cannon arm and may have enough speed to stick in center, which would make it easier for him to start, though right field is a possibility. He signed for $380,000, which is $10,600 below slot, and has gotten off to a hot start in the minors. In 12 games in the New York-Pen League, he slashed .420/.453/.580 with a home run and a 2/3 strikeout to walk ratio, and has collected three hits in seven at bats (.429 AVG) since being promoted to Class A Lakewood.
9-257: RHP Dominic Pipken (my rank: 88)
Pipken was a top three rounds talent, but fell to the ninth because of signability. The 6'4" right hander out of high school in the East Bay north of Oakland has good present stuff and a lot of projectability. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's from an easy delivery, so it is easy to dream on mid 90's velocity when all is said and done. His offspeeds are more of a work in progress, though his slider does have good shape and could be a plus pitch with pro refinement. He doesn't have the best command at this point and has been inconsistent this spring, so it's a high risk pick, but there is high reward as well. He signed for $800,000, which is $646,400 above slot.
Others: 6th rounder Logan Simmons is an infielder out of high school in Macon, Georgia that has a high ceiling, low floor profile. A shortstop at this point, he may have to move to third base, but that's not a given. His bat is where the variance lies, as he has plenty of power from the right side but has often struggled with contact, even at the high school level. If the Phillies can streamline his swing and cut his strikeouts down significantly, he has the upside of a starting shortstop with power, but if he struggles with contact and has to move to third base, it'll be a tough road forward. His $750,000 signing bonus was $457,300 above slot. 10th rounder Madison Stokes played four years at South Carolina, finishing it off with a .322/.414/.579 slash line, 11 home runs, and a 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio in his senior season. He can play all over the field, including shortstop, and combined with his offensive profile, he has a good chance at hitting his way to a utility role in the majors. His $10,000 signing bonus also saved the Phillies $132,600 in slot space. 11th rounder Jack Perkins may not be as famous as his teammate in the Stetson rotation, Mariners first rounder Logan Gilbert, but he was nearly as effective. Over 18 games (17 starts), he went 11-3 with a 2.80 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 106 innings. He held his own in the Cape Cod League (4.97 ERA, 22/11 K/BB) and projects as a back-end starter with the potential for more if he can add velocity, considering his projectable 6'4" frame and late birthday (turns 21 in August). 14th rounder Jesse Wilkening had a breakout year as Nebraska's catcher this year, slashing .372/.445/.588 with nine home runs and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He's very capable defensively with good all around actions, and he has shown the ability to get on base and hit for some power. It's a backup catcher profile, but some steps forward at the plate could land him in a starting role.
2018 Draft Review: New York Mets
First 5 rounds: Jarred Kelenic (1-6), Simeon Woods-Richardson (2-48), Carlos Cortes (3-83), Adam Hill (4-110), Ryley Gilliam (5-140)
Also notable: Nick Meyer (6-170), Bryce Montes de Oca (9-260), Chase Chambers (18-530), Zach Rheams (27-800), Jake Mangum (32-950)
It's been a rough year (decade) for Mets fans, and while a sixth overall pick is always energizing for a franchise, there isn't much else in this draft to get excited over. After taking high schoolers with their first two picks, the Mets switched over to the college ranks for rounds three through ten. Interestingly, they looked to be high on college performers, taking two of South Carolina's best players with back to back picks (Carlos Cortes and Adam Hill) while also grabbing well-known players from Clemson (Ryley Gilliam), Tennessee Tech (Chase Chambers), Cal State Fullerton (Tommy Wilson), Miami (Hayden Senger), Texas Tech (Zach Rheams), and Mississippi State (Jake Mangum).
1-6: OF Jarred Kelenic (my rank: 10)
I have Kelenic ranked a bit lower, but it is hard to fault the Mets for grabbing the top high school bat in the country here, especially considering how much money they saved. Kelenic doesn't have a standout tool, but he is extremely advanced for his age and should be able to move through the minor leagues quicker than most high schoolers. The 6'1" outfielder out of Waukesha, Wisconsin has excellent feel for the barrel with a smooth swing, and he hits for average power, giving him the potential for 20 home runs per season to go along with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's fast as well, helping him both on the base paths and in the outfield, and his overall feel for the game is universally praised. Some may be disappointed by the lack of excitement that typically comes with this kind of all-around player, but Kelenic has top of the order potential and a higher floor than most high schoolers. The one knock on him is his age, as he turns 19 in two weeks, but he also played in a cold weather area where he may not have been able to practice as consistently as his southern counterparts, so it evens out. He signed for $4.5 million, over $1 million below slot. He has rewarded them in his tiny sample so far, slashing .464/.500/.643 with a 6/2 strikeout to walk ratio and a pair of stolen bases (no home runs yet) in seven games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.
2-48: RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (unranked)
This was a surprising pick by the Mets considering Woods-Richardson's general stock within the industry, but the Mets apparently like his upside and gambled on him with the 48th pick. The 6'3" righty out of high school in the Houston suburbs has been inconsistent, showing a fastball anywhere from 89 to 95 while also tossing an at-times plus curveball and a changeup that has its moments. When it's all going right, he looks like a mid-rotation starter, but there are also times where he looks like he'll have to be shifted to the bullpen. The Mets clearly think the former is more likely than the latter, and he doesn't turn 18 until September (making him more than a full year younger than Kelenic), so we'll see. He signed for $1.85 million, which was $364,900 above slot.
3-83: 2B Carlos Cortes (unranked)
Carlos Cortes was considered by some to be a top 100 prospect in the 2016 draft (97th on my list) and is back after a couple of good years at South Carolina. After slashing .286/.368/.565 with 12 home runs and a 27/22 strikeout to walk ratio as a freshman last year, he improved his plate discipline in his sophomore year this year and slashed .265/.385/.500 with 15 home runs and a 32/43 strikeout to walk ratio. The strikeout rate dropped from 13.9% to 11.5% while the walk rate jumped from 11.3% to 15.5%, and he kept the rest of his production steady. That offensive production is important, because he's a bat-first prospect who may end up being a liability in the field. The Mets took him as a second baseman, but he probably fits better at third base or in the outfield. At just 5'8" and not all that fast, he'll be a mediocre fielder at best. I think there were guys available who could hit just as well as Cortes who could also field, but the Mets liked this bat in particular and went all in. They signed him for just over $1 million, going $294,738 over slot. He went 0-4 with a pair of strikeouts in his first New York-Penn League game.
4-110: RHP Adam Hill (unranked)
In the next round, the Mets took Cortes' teammate at South Carolina, Adam Hill. The 6'6" right hander finished his junior season 7-5 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, striking out 101 and walking 55 in 83 innings. Those aren't great numbers, but they're credible for the SEC, and he has a track record of success from throughout his three years in Columbia. He throws his fastball in the low 90's but it looks faster because of his long arms and release point, and he has a pretty good slider and changeup as well. That's all good stuff, though his command could use some work. If he can take a step forward with his command, he has a chance to stick as a #3 or #4 starter. He signed for $507,800, right at slot,.
5-140: RHP Ryley Gilliam (unranked)
Gilliam served as Clemson's closer this year, putting up a 1.41 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 54/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 38 innings. He has a great fastball/curveball combo, throwing the fastball in the low to mid 90's and showing hard break on the curve. However, he struggles to command it, and at just 5'10", he'll need to improve that command to reach the majors. If he does, he profiles well as a set-up man at the major league level. He signed for $550,000, which is $170,600 above slot.
Others: 6th rounder Nick Meyer was the starting catcher at Cal Poly for three years, capping it off with a .344/.408/.428 line, no home runs, and a 19/18 strikeout to walk ratio. He's definitely a defense-first guy, one who will definitely stick behind the plate no matter how far his bat takes him. The question is the bat, as he generates no power from his flat swing and doesn't walk all that much at 7.3%. The saving grace for him at the plate is his ability to get the bat on the ball, as he struck out in just 7.7% of his plate appearances this year, but he'll have to hit with more authority as he moves through the minors. 9th rounder Bryce Montes de Oca was draft eligible last year but returned to Missouri for his senior year, going 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP while striking out 65 and walking 33 in 54.2 innings. After years of injuries, the huge 6'7" righty has been healthy the past two seasons, though is very much stuff over command. Out of the bullpen, he can run his fastball up to 100 with heavy sink as well as a slider that looks great at times, but he struggles to throw strikes. He's likely a reliever in pro ball, where if coaching and long stretches of health can improve his command, he'll be a Dellin Betances type arm. 18th rounder Chase Chambers was at the center of the most productive offense in college baseball, slashing .395/.500/.652 with 17 home runs and a 24/49 strikeout to walk ratio at Tennessee Tech. As a senior sign first baseman, the bat will have to carry him and carry him quickly, but I think there is a good chance it does. He's already slashing .345/.433/.448 with a home run in 15 New York-Penn League games. 27th rounder Zach Rheams was a big producer for Texas Tech, slashing .341/.461/.713 with 17 home runs and a 49/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games. Also a first baseman, his bat will have to carry him, though he does walk a lot (17%) in addition to the power. Lastly, 32nd rounder Jake Mangum already announced that he won't sign and will head back to Mississippi State for his senior year, marking the second time in as many years that he has chosen to return to school rather than go pro. He's hit over power, slashing .351/.434/.479 with three home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 29/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 68 games, providing leadership and energy to the team. He was really fun to watch during the NCAA Tournament and College World Series, and he's clearly a gamer than can play above his average tools. Had signability not been an issue, he could have gone in the top six or so rounds.
Also notable: Nick Meyer (6-170), Bryce Montes de Oca (9-260), Chase Chambers (18-530), Zach Rheams (27-800), Jake Mangum (32-950)
It's been a rough year (decade) for Mets fans, and while a sixth overall pick is always energizing for a franchise, there isn't much else in this draft to get excited over. After taking high schoolers with their first two picks, the Mets switched over to the college ranks for rounds three through ten. Interestingly, they looked to be high on college performers, taking two of South Carolina's best players with back to back picks (Carlos Cortes and Adam Hill) while also grabbing well-known players from Clemson (Ryley Gilliam), Tennessee Tech (Chase Chambers), Cal State Fullerton (Tommy Wilson), Miami (Hayden Senger), Texas Tech (Zach Rheams), and Mississippi State (Jake Mangum).
1-6: OF Jarred Kelenic (my rank: 10)
I have Kelenic ranked a bit lower, but it is hard to fault the Mets for grabbing the top high school bat in the country here, especially considering how much money they saved. Kelenic doesn't have a standout tool, but he is extremely advanced for his age and should be able to move through the minor leagues quicker than most high schoolers. The 6'1" outfielder out of Waukesha, Wisconsin has excellent feel for the barrel with a smooth swing, and he hits for average power, giving him the potential for 20 home runs per season to go along with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's fast as well, helping him both on the base paths and in the outfield, and his overall feel for the game is universally praised. Some may be disappointed by the lack of excitement that typically comes with this kind of all-around player, but Kelenic has top of the order potential and a higher floor than most high schoolers. The one knock on him is his age, as he turns 19 in two weeks, but he also played in a cold weather area where he may not have been able to practice as consistently as his southern counterparts, so it evens out. He signed for $4.5 million, over $1 million below slot. He has rewarded them in his tiny sample so far, slashing .464/.500/.643 with a 6/2 strikeout to walk ratio and a pair of stolen bases (no home runs yet) in seven games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.
2-48: RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (unranked)
This was a surprising pick by the Mets considering Woods-Richardson's general stock within the industry, but the Mets apparently like his upside and gambled on him with the 48th pick. The 6'3" righty out of high school in the Houston suburbs has been inconsistent, showing a fastball anywhere from 89 to 95 while also tossing an at-times plus curveball and a changeup that has its moments. When it's all going right, he looks like a mid-rotation starter, but there are also times where he looks like he'll have to be shifted to the bullpen. The Mets clearly think the former is more likely than the latter, and he doesn't turn 18 until September (making him more than a full year younger than Kelenic), so we'll see. He signed for $1.85 million, which was $364,900 above slot.
3-83: 2B Carlos Cortes (unranked)
Carlos Cortes was considered by some to be a top 100 prospect in the 2016 draft (97th on my list) and is back after a couple of good years at South Carolina. After slashing .286/.368/.565 with 12 home runs and a 27/22 strikeout to walk ratio as a freshman last year, he improved his plate discipline in his sophomore year this year and slashed .265/.385/.500 with 15 home runs and a 32/43 strikeout to walk ratio. The strikeout rate dropped from 13.9% to 11.5% while the walk rate jumped from 11.3% to 15.5%, and he kept the rest of his production steady. That offensive production is important, because he's a bat-first prospect who may end up being a liability in the field. The Mets took him as a second baseman, but he probably fits better at third base or in the outfield. At just 5'8" and not all that fast, he'll be a mediocre fielder at best. I think there were guys available who could hit just as well as Cortes who could also field, but the Mets liked this bat in particular and went all in. They signed him for just over $1 million, going $294,738 over slot. He went 0-4 with a pair of strikeouts in his first New York-Penn League game.
4-110: RHP Adam Hill (unranked)
In the next round, the Mets took Cortes' teammate at South Carolina, Adam Hill. The 6'6" right hander finished his junior season 7-5 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, striking out 101 and walking 55 in 83 innings. Those aren't great numbers, but they're credible for the SEC, and he has a track record of success from throughout his three years in Columbia. He throws his fastball in the low 90's but it looks faster because of his long arms and release point, and he has a pretty good slider and changeup as well. That's all good stuff, though his command could use some work. If he can take a step forward with his command, he has a chance to stick as a #3 or #4 starter. He signed for $507,800, right at slot,.
5-140: RHP Ryley Gilliam (unranked)
Gilliam served as Clemson's closer this year, putting up a 1.41 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 54/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 38 innings. He has a great fastball/curveball combo, throwing the fastball in the low to mid 90's and showing hard break on the curve. However, he struggles to command it, and at just 5'10", he'll need to improve that command to reach the majors. If he does, he profiles well as a set-up man at the major league level. He signed for $550,000, which is $170,600 above slot.
Others: 6th rounder Nick Meyer was the starting catcher at Cal Poly for three years, capping it off with a .344/.408/.428 line, no home runs, and a 19/18 strikeout to walk ratio. He's definitely a defense-first guy, one who will definitely stick behind the plate no matter how far his bat takes him. The question is the bat, as he generates no power from his flat swing and doesn't walk all that much at 7.3%. The saving grace for him at the plate is his ability to get the bat on the ball, as he struck out in just 7.7% of his plate appearances this year, but he'll have to hit with more authority as he moves through the minors. 9th rounder Bryce Montes de Oca was draft eligible last year but returned to Missouri for his senior year, going 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP while striking out 65 and walking 33 in 54.2 innings. After years of injuries, the huge 6'7" righty has been healthy the past two seasons, though is very much stuff over command. Out of the bullpen, he can run his fastball up to 100 with heavy sink as well as a slider that looks great at times, but he struggles to throw strikes. He's likely a reliever in pro ball, where if coaching and long stretches of health can improve his command, he'll be a Dellin Betances type arm. 18th rounder Chase Chambers was at the center of the most productive offense in college baseball, slashing .395/.500/.652 with 17 home runs and a 24/49 strikeout to walk ratio at Tennessee Tech. As a senior sign first baseman, the bat will have to carry him and carry him quickly, but I think there is a good chance it does. He's already slashing .345/.433/.448 with a home run in 15 New York-Penn League games. 27th rounder Zach Rheams was a big producer for Texas Tech, slashing .341/.461/.713 with 17 home runs and a 49/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games. Also a first baseman, his bat will have to carry him, though he does walk a lot (17%) in addition to the power. Lastly, 32nd rounder Jake Mangum already announced that he won't sign and will head back to Mississippi State for his senior year, marking the second time in as many years that he has chosen to return to school rather than go pro. He's hit over power, slashing .351/.434/.479 with three home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 29/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 68 games, providing leadership and energy to the team. He was really fun to watch during the NCAA Tournament and College World Series, and he's clearly a gamer than can play above his average tools. Had signability not been an issue, he could have gone in the top six or so rounds.
Monday, July 2, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Miami Marlins
First 5 rounds: Connor Scott (1-13), Osiris Johnson (2-53), Will Banfield (CBB-69), Tristan Pompey (3-89), Nick Fortes (4-117), Chris Vallimont (5-147)
Also notable: Peyton Culbertson (8-237), Sam Bordner (16-477), Garrett McDaniels (30-897)
The Marlins clearly went looking for upside in this draft, although aside from first round pick Connor Scott, I don't think they got as much as they could have. I don't think it's as bad as last year's draft, which was awful in my opinion, but they just seem to have an aversion to guys I like (aside from Scott) and an attraction towards players I don't think all that highly of. I do think Tristan Pompey in the third round was a pretty decent grab, but I don't like going $1 million over slot for Will Banfield and I think Osiris Johnson belonged just a hair lower in the draft. Additionally, it looks like they wanted to focus on bats, taking five straight hitters at the top of the draft (including the competitive balance round) before popping Mercyhurst righty Chris Vallimont in the fifth round.
1-13: OF Connor Scott (my rank: 11)
This is easily my favorite pick in the draft. Scott is a high schooler from the same Plant High School (Tampa) that produced Wade Boggs and Astros top prospect Kyle Tucker, and Scott's quirky swing is actually pretty similar to Tucker's. Scott is an ultra-athletic, 6'4" string bean with great speed, a great arm, and the potential for a great bat. That bat is the biggest question mark, but even though the mechanics are a bit awkward, I like that he leaves his hands back and then flings the bat through the zone with great bat speed. He needs to incorporate his lower half more, which will improve his currently average power considerably, but I see enough projection in the swing to profile him as a potential plus hitter. The Marlins' player development isn't the best, but the fact that he can definitely stick in center field buys the bat some time. He signed right at slot for just over $4 million.
2-53: SS Osiris Johnson (my rank: 79)
Johnson is a high schooler out of the Oakland, California area, and he's a cousin of Jimmy Rollins. He's a fairly similar player to Rangers third rounder Jonathan Ornelas, who went 91st overall, though I do like Ornelas better. Like Ornelas, Osiris is an infielder with a big swing that generates more power than you'd expect for a six footer, though it does lead to a lot of swings and misses. He's a capable defender in the infield and should be able to stay there, though shortstop looks unlikely at this point. One thing he does have going for him is his age, as he does not turn 18 until October, making him one of the youngest players in the draft. It's a high risk, high reward pick, though I think the risk is just a bit high for the 53rd pick. He signed for $1.35 million, which is $31,500 over slot.
CBB-69: C Will Banfield (my rank: 52)
I wouldn't mind the Banfield pick here if the Marlins didn't go so far over slot to sign him. He's a high school catcher, a traditionally risky demographic, and his glove is ahead of his bat, making him even riskier. The Atlanta area high schooler is known for his great arm and great blocking skills, so he'll stick behind the plate and be above average there, but he struggled to make consistent contact during his senior season and that's worrisome. There is power potential there, and I can see him hitting 20-30 home runs per season if he makes enough contact, but he simply hasn't done enough to make me feel comfortable that he will make that much contact. He signed for $1.8 million, which is $905,400 above slot for the 69th pick. He has played two games so far and has one hit in seven at bats (.143 AVG), striking out three times in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.
3-89: OF Tristan Pompey (my rank: 60)
This is a pretty decent pick here in my opinion. Pompey is an outfielder at Kentucky, standing out for his high level of performance in the SEC. As a sophomore in 2017, he slashed .361/.464/.541 with ten home runs and a 56/46 strikeout to walk ratio, then followed it up in 2018 with a .335/.448/.557 line with seven home runs and a 47/33 ratio. He was more inconsistent in 2018, going through hot stretches but also looking lost at the plate at times, and his strikeout rates have always been high (17.5% in 2017, 21% in 2018). While his walk rates have also been high (14.4% in 2017, 14.7% in 2018), he doesn't seem to have much of a plan at the plate, which explains his inconsistency. He has gotten by so far on his athleticism and natural skill, though it will take pro coaching to get him over the hump and to reach his potential. Still, I like the combination of SEC production and projection for a third round pick. He reminds me of Padres 2016 second rounder Buddy Reed, another athletic, switch hitting SEC outfielder who played better in his sophomore year than his junior year. Reed struggled out of the gate in his pro career (.234/.290/.396 in 2017) but has turned it around in the hitter-friendly California League this year (.327/.377/.544). Pompey signed for $645,000, which is $2,400 above slot.
4-117: C Nick Fortes (unranked)
If Scott, Johnson, Banfield, and Pompey were the upside picks, Nick Fortes is the safety pick. He's a do-it-all catcher out of Ole Miss, coming off a junior season where he slashed .319/.435/.519 with 11 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 25/46 strikeout to walk ratio. All of his tools grade out as average, as he looks to be a good-fielding catcher with some power, the ability to get on base, and even some speed so that he doesn't clog the bases like most catchers. His swing is simple, and while I don't see him hitting 20 home runs in a season, he'll hit for enough power and make enough contact to get by. That 15.8% walk rate, combined with the low 8.6% strikeout rate, will help him move through the minors and be able to match up against advanced pitching. Most importantly, he is reportedly a good leader from behind the plate, and it all adds up to a back-up catcher profile, albeit one with a high floor. He signed for $425,000, which is $49,000 below slot. He went 1-4 with a single and a walk in his New York-Penn League debut.
Others: 8th rounder Peyton Culbertson is a 6'1" right handed pitcher out of Arkansas State, where he went 2-5 with a 3.73 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 48/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 50.2 innings. He has battled some injuries but and his stuff is ahead of his command at this point, with his sinking mid 90's fastball and good slider getting hit more than they should when he falls behind in the count. If he converts to the bullpen, he could sit in the upper 90's and be fast tracked to the majors. 16th rounder Sam Bordner has been a valuable reliever for three years at Louisville, standing out more for his exceptional sophomore season (0.41 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 39/10 K/BB) than his comparatively pedestrian junior year (3.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 28/4 K/BB). He's a 6'6" righty that has battled injuries this year and who hasn't pitched since April, showing a fastball around 90 and a decent slider that should pick up with pro coaching. He relies on deception for his success, and could climb the ladder as a middle reliever if he gets back to his 2017 form. 30th rounder Garrett McDaniels is a top five rounds talent who slid to the 30th due to signability issues, and with the Marlins blowing all of their over slot space on Will Banfield, it's essentially certain that he'll head to Coastal Carolina rather than sign. The skinny 6'2" lefty out of high school in rural South Carolina has a high three quarters delivery that puts deception on his fastball/curveball combination, though he's very raw as it is. He doesn't always get his fastball up to 90 and the control is a work in progress, but I do like the curveball and a few years at Coastal could do him a lot of good.
Also notable: Peyton Culbertson (8-237), Sam Bordner (16-477), Garrett McDaniels (30-897)
The Marlins clearly went looking for upside in this draft, although aside from first round pick Connor Scott, I don't think they got as much as they could have. I don't think it's as bad as last year's draft, which was awful in my opinion, but they just seem to have an aversion to guys I like (aside from Scott) and an attraction towards players I don't think all that highly of. I do think Tristan Pompey in the third round was a pretty decent grab, but I don't like going $1 million over slot for Will Banfield and I think Osiris Johnson belonged just a hair lower in the draft. Additionally, it looks like they wanted to focus on bats, taking five straight hitters at the top of the draft (including the competitive balance round) before popping Mercyhurst righty Chris Vallimont in the fifth round.
1-13: OF Connor Scott (my rank: 11)
This is easily my favorite pick in the draft. Scott is a high schooler from the same Plant High School (Tampa) that produced Wade Boggs and Astros top prospect Kyle Tucker, and Scott's quirky swing is actually pretty similar to Tucker's. Scott is an ultra-athletic, 6'4" string bean with great speed, a great arm, and the potential for a great bat. That bat is the biggest question mark, but even though the mechanics are a bit awkward, I like that he leaves his hands back and then flings the bat through the zone with great bat speed. He needs to incorporate his lower half more, which will improve his currently average power considerably, but I see enough projection in the swing to profile him as a potential plus hitter. The Marlins' player development isn't the best, but the fact that he can definitely stick in center field buys the bat some time. He signed right at slot for just over $4 million.
2-53: SS Osiris Johnson (my rank: 79)
Johnson is a high schooler out of the Oakland, California area, and he's a cousin of Jimmy Rollins. He's a fairly similar player to Rangers third rounder Jonathan Ornelas, who went 91st overall, though I do like Ornelas better. Like Ornelas, Osiris is an infielder with a big swing that generates more power than you'd expect for a six footer, though it does lead to a lot of swings and misses. He's a capable defender in the infield and should be able to stay there, though shortstop looks unlikely at this point. One thing he does have going for him is his age, as he does not turn 18 until October, making him one of the youngest players in the draft. It's a high risk, high reward pick, though I think the risk is just a bit high for the 53rd pick. He signed for $1.35 million, which is $31,500 over slot.
CBB-69: C Will Banfield (my rank: 52)
I wouldn't mind the Banfield pick here if the Marlins didn't go so far over slot to sign him. He's a high school catcher, a traditionally risky demographic, and his glove is ahead of his bat, making him even riskier. The Atlanta area high schooler is known for his great arm and great blocking skills, so he'll stick behind the plate and be above average there, but he struggled to make consistent contact during his senior season and that's worrisome. There is power potential there, and I can see him hitting 20-30 home runs per season if he makes enough contact, but he simply hasn't done enough to make me feel comfortable that he will make that much contact. He signed for $1.8 million, which is $905,400 above slot for the 69th pick. He has played two games so far and has one hit in seven at bats (.143 AVG), striking out three times in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.
3-89: OF Tristan Pompey (my rank: 60)
This is a pretty decent pick here in my opinion. Pompey is an outfielder at Kentucky, standing out for his high level of performance in the SEC. As a sophomore in 2017, he slashed .361/.464/.541 with ten home runs and a 56/46 strikeout to walk ratio, then followed it up in 2018 with a .335/.448/.557 line with seven home runs and a 47/33 ratio. He was more inconsistent in 2018, going through hot stretches but also looking lost at the plate at times, and his strikeout rates have always been high (17.5% in 2017, 21% in 2018). While his walk rates have also been high (14.4% in 2017, 14.7% in 2018), he doesn't seem to have much of a plan at the plate, which explains his inconsistency. He has gotten by so far on his athleticism and natural skill, though it will take pro coaching to get him over the hump and to reach his potential. Still, I like the combination of SEC production and projection for a third round pick. He reminds me of Padres 2016 second rounder Buddy Reed, another athletic, switch hitting SEC outfielder who played better in his sophomore year than his junior year. Reed struggled out of the gate in his pro career (.234/.290/.396 in 2017) but has turned it around in the hitter-friendly California League this year (.327/.377/.544). Pompey signed for $645,000, which is $2,400 above slot.
4-117: C Nick Fortes (unranked)
If Scott, Johnson, Banfield, and Pompey were the upside picks, Nick Fortes is the safety pick. He's a do-it-all catcher out of Ole Miss, coming off a junior season where he slashed .319/.435/.519 with 11 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 25/46 strikeout to walk ratio. All of his tools grade out as average, as he looks to be a good-fielding catcher with some power, the ability to get on base, and even some speed so that he doesn't clog the bases like most catchers. His swing is simple, and while I don't see him hitting 20 home runs in a season, he'll hit for enough power and make enough contact to get by. That 15.8% walk rate, combined with the low 8.6% strikeout rate, will help him move through the minors and be able to match up against advanced pitching. Most importantly, he is reportedly a good leader from behind the plate, and it all adds up to a back-up catcher profile, albeit one with a high floor. He signed for $425,000, which is $49,000 below slot. He went 1-4 with a single and a walk in his New York-Penn League debut.
Others: 8th rounder Peyton Culbertson is a 6'1" right handed pitcher out of Arkansas State, where he went 2-5 with a 3.73 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 48/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 50.2 innings. He has battled some injuries but and his stuff is ahead of his command at this point, with his sinking mid 90's fastball and good slider getting hit more than they should when he falls behind in the count. If he converts to the bullpen, he could sit in the upper 90's and be fast tracked to the majors. 16th rounder Sam Bordner has been a valuable reliever for three years at Louisville, standing out more for his exceptional sophomore season (0.41 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 39/10 K/BB) than his comparatively pedestrian junior year (3.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 28/4 K/BB). He's a 6'6" righty that has battled injuries this year and who hasn't pitched since April, showing a fastball around 90 and a decent slider that should pick up with pro coaching. He relies on deception for his success, and could climb the ladder as a middle reliever if he gets back to his 2017 form. 30th rounder Garrett McDaniels is a top five rounds talent who slid to the 30th due to signability issues, and with the Marlins blowing all of their over slot space on Will Banfield, it's essentially certain that he'll head to Coastal Carolina rather than sign. The skinny 6'2" lefty out of high school in rural South Carolina has a high three quarters delivery that puts deception on his fastball/curveball combination, though he's very raw as it is. He doesn't always get his fastball up to 90 and the control is a work in progress, but I do like the curveball and a few years at Coastal could do him a lot of good.
Sunday, July 1, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Atlanta Braves
First 5 rounds: Carter Stewart (1-8), Greyson Jenista (2-49), Tristan Beck (4-112), Trey Riley (5-142)
Also notable: Andrew Moritz (6-172), Jake Higginbotham (11-322), Nolan Kingham (12-352), Brendan Venter (13-382), Zach Hess (34-1012)
The Braves didn't make their third selection until pick #112, but they still somehow managed to put together a very talented class because that's just what they do. Their farm system is already elite, and that's because of their excellent player development, and it definitely got better with this draft. They like to go for high-ceiling types, which is what they did here for the most part, and they usually hit on those guys, especially pitchers.
1-8: RHP Carter Stewart (my rank: 6)
Stewart shot up boards this spring, and by the end of it he was the top high school right handed pitcher in the class. The projectable 6'6" righty from Florida's Space Coast grew up a Braves fan, and now he's throwing in the mid 90's with a big dropping power curveball and a changeup that's coming along. On top of that, Stewart commands everything fairly well, not necessarily with pinpoint command but enough to set himself apart with other, wilder stuff-oriented pitchers. His delivery is deliberate and includes long arm action, but it's clean overall and there's no reason to think he won't be able to improve his command further. He has ace potential as a harder throwing Adam Wainwright, a fellow Braves first round pick out of high school on the south Atlantic coast, and there is no better place to reach that potential than in the Braves' system. He has not signed yet, with slot value sitting just under $5 million.
2-49: 1B Greyson Jenista (my rank: 25)
Jenista played for Wichita State, where he slashed .309/.446/.475 with nine home runs and a 41/50 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a big guy at 6'4" and 240 pounds, but he moves well for his size and actually stole 12 bases in 13 tries this year. Also despite his size, he's more contact and on-base ability over power at this point, keeping his strikeout rate at a reasonable 15.7% while walking at an excellent 19.2% rate to run his OBP up to .446, spraying line drives all over the field. I do see more power potential beyond the nine home runs he hit this year, and not just because of his size, as his swing is explosive and he leaves his hands back for a long time. Adding loft could help him hit 20-30 home runs per season, and he was drafted as a first baseman but does have the ability to play some outfield without being a liability. There were some complaints that he sometimes struggled with breaking stuff or against advanced pitching, which knocked him down to the second round, but I definitely like the bat. Jenista signed for $1.2 million, which saves the Braves $250,500 on slot value, and he's slashing .250/.348/.500 with three home runs and a 9/6 strikeout to walk ratio in ten games in the rookie level Appalachian League.
4-112: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 41)
Beck is a second or third round talent here in the fourth round. Both college baseball fans and draft fans should be very familiar with Beck, who served as the Stanford ace in 2016 and 2018 and was a top draft prospect in 2015 and 2017 in addition to 2018. Because he was old for his class with a June birthday, he was eligible for that 2017 draft, and a huge freshman season (6-5, 2.48 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 76/26 K/BB) had him slated to go as early as the back of the first round. However, he missed the entire season with a back injury and elected to return to school instead of sign, but took a slight step back this year. Through 15 starts, he went 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 90.2 innings, with his stuff reportedly taking a step back. He's more command over stuff, showing a low 90's fastball, a curveball that looked plus as a freshman but that has flattened out a little this year, and a very good changeup that can be an out pitch when the curve isn't on. He commands it all well usually, but that command wasn't quite as crisp this year as he was his freshman year. Essentially, you're looking at a bona fide mid rotation starter if he gets back to that freshman form, but he may be more of a #4 or #5 starter if he can't. As I said with Stewart, the Braves know how to get the most out of these guys. He hasn't signed yet, and though slot value is $497,800, he'll likely need a much higher bonus.
5-142: RHP Trey Riley (my rank: 98)
I couldn't find much video on Riley when I was researching him prior to the draft, but the scouting reports like him. He's a 6'2" righty out of John A. Logan Community College, the powerhouse JuCo in southern Illinois that also produced Orioles 2016 second rounder Matthias Dietz. Riley is likely a reliever, showing a quick arm that produces low to mid 90's fastballs and a very good slider to go along with a mediocre changeup. The changeup will have to take a leap forward if he wants to start, but if he gets put in the bullpen, he'll be able to scrap the changeup and sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and buckle hitters' knees with the slider. I especially don't think he sticks in the rotation given the Braves incredible pitching depth in their minor leagues. He signed for $450,000, which is $78,100 above slot. Through 2.1 innings in the Appy League, he has allowed three earned runs (11.57 ERA) on two hits, four walks, a hit by pitch, and three strikeouts.
Others: 6th rounder Andrew Moritz is notable for batting .406 at UNC-Greensboro over his entire three year career, finishing it off with a .428/.492/.637 line, six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 27/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games this year. The stat line says it all, as he is a contact-oriented hitter who doesn't miss much (10.7% strikeout rate this year), and he may have enough speed to stick in center field. Though he won't hit home runs, he has plenty of gap power with that speed and line drive bat. The one thing that scares me off Moritz a bit is his .243/.323/.279 slash line and 22/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games in the Cape Cod League last summer, which raises the question of if his excellent stats this year are just a product of him playing weaker competition in the Southern Conference. 11th rounder Jake Higginbotham did a great job stepping back into the Clemson rotation this year (6-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 63/32 K/BB) after missing 2017 with an elbow injury, but he likely profiles as a reliever at the next level. The lefty should be able to run his fastball into the mid 90's and get additional outs with his pretty good slider if put in the 'pen. 12th rounder Nolan Kingham is a well known college arm who had a much better season in his sophomore season at Texas (10-4, 2.84 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 67/24 K/BB) than in his junior season (8-5, 4.57 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 81/24 K/BB). His fastball has lost velocity and now sits around 90 after hitting 97 last year, which now gives less contrast with his hard upper 80's slider. He hasn't signed yet and I'm not sure that he will at all. 13th rounder Brendan Venter is another college performer (in case you haven't picked up what kind of players I like to highlight in this section), slashing .307/.385/.510 with 12 home runs and a 45/19 strikeout to walk ratio at Auburn this year. There is power in his bat, and he has a knack for hard contact, though his plate discipline definitely needs work. He was drafted as a first baseman so the bat will have to carry him. 34th rounder Zach Hess is more of a third or fourth round talent (he ranked #102 on my list) so he likely won't sign here unless the Braves take a significant chunk of money out of their bonus pool. He's a relief prospect out of LSU who was much better in 2017 (3.12 ERA, 83/30 K/BB) than he was this year (5.05 ERA, 107/49 K/BB). The 6'6" righty can hit the upper 90's when used in relief, and his slider can be a wipeout pitch. He'll try to rebuild his stock next year in Baton Rouge.
Also notable: Andrew Moritz (6-172), Jake Higginbotham (11-322), Nolan Kingham (12-352), Brendan Venter (13-382), Zach Hess (34-1012)
The Braves didn't make their third selection until pick #112, but they still somehow managed to put together a very talented class because that's just what they do. Their farm system is already elite, and that's because of their excellent player development, and it definitely got better with this draft. They like to go for high-ceiling types, which is what they did here for the most part, and they usually hit on those guys, especially pitchers.
1-8: RHP Carter Stewart (my rank: 6)
Stewart shot up boards this spring, and by the end of it he was the top high school right handed pitcher in the class. The projectable 6'6" righty from Florida's Space Coast grew up a Braves fan, and now he's throwing in the mid 90's with a big dropping power curveball and a changeup that's coming along. On top of that, Stewart commands everything fairly well, not necessarily with pinpoint command but enough to set himself apart with other, wilder stuff-oriented pitchers. His delivery is deliberate and includes long arm action, but it's clean overall and there's no reason to think he won't be able to improve his command further. He has ace potential as a harder throwing Adam Wainwright, a fellow Braves first round pick out of high school on the south Atlantic coast, and there is no better place to reach that potential than in the Braves' system. He has not signed yet, with slot value sitting just under $5 million.
2-49: 1B Greyson Jenista (my rank: 25)
Jenista played for Wichita State, where he slashed .309/.446/.475 with nine home runs and a 41/50 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a big guy at 6'4" and 240 pounds, but he moves well for his size and actually stole 12 bases in 13 tries this year. Also despite his size, he's more contact and on-base ability over power at this point, keeping his strikeout rate at a reasonable 15.7% while walking at an excellent 19.2% rate to run his OBP up to .446, spraying line drives all over the field. I do see more power potential beyond the nine home runs he hit this year, and not just because of his size, as his swing is explosive and he leaves his hands back for a long time. Adding loft could help him hit 20-30 home runs per season, and he was drafted as a first baseman but does have the ability to play some outfield without being a liability. There were some complaints that he sometimes struggled with breaking stuff or against advanced pitching, which knocked him down to the second round, but I definitely like the bat. Jenista signed for $1.2 million, which saves the Braves $250,500 on slot value, and he's slashing .250/.348/.500 with three home runs and a 9/6 strikeout to walk ratio in ten games in the rookie level Appalachian League.
4-112: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 41)
Beck is a second or third round talent here in the fourth round. Both college baseball fans and draft fans should be very familiar with Beck, who served as the Stanford ace in 2016 and 2018 and was a top draft prospect in 2015 and 2017 in addition to 2018. Because he was old for his class with a June birthday, he was eligible for that 2017 draft, and a huge freshman season (6-5, 2.48 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 76/26 K/BB) had him slated to go as early as the back of the first round. However, he missed the entire season with a back injury and elected to return to school instead of sign, but took a slight step back this year. Through 15 starts, he went 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 90.2 innings, with his stuff reportedly taking a step back. He's more command over stuff, showing a low 90's fastball, a curveball that looked plus as a freshman but that has flattened out a little this year, and a very good changeup that can be an out pitch when the curve isn't on. He commands it all well usually, but that command wasn't quite as crisp this year as he was his freshman year. Essentially, you're looking at a bona fide mid rotation starter if he gets back to that freshman form, but he may be more of a #4 or #5 starter if he can't. As I said with Stewart, the Braves know how to get the most out of these guys. He hasn't signed yet, and though slot value is $497,800, he'll likely need a much higher bonus.
5-142: RHP Trey Riley (my rank: 98)
I couldn't find much video on Riley when I was researching him prior to the draft, but the scouting reports like him. He's a 6'2" righty out of John A. Logan Community College, the powerhouse JuCo in southern Illinois that also produced Orioles 2016 second rounder Matthias Dietz. Riley is likely a reliever, showing a quick arm that produces low to mid 90's fastballs and a very good slider to go along with a mediocre changeup. The changeup will have to take a leap forward if he wants to start, but if he gets put in the bullpen, he'll be able to scrap the changeup and sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and buckle hitters' knees with the slider. I especially don't think he sticks in the rotation given the Braves incredible pitching depth in their minor leagues. He signed for $450,000, which is $78,100 above slot. Through 2.1 innings in the Appy League, he has allowed three earned runs (11.57 ERA) on two hits, four walks, a hit by pitch, and three strikeouts.
Others: 6th rounder Andrew Moritz is notable for batting .406 at UNC-Greensboro over his entire three year career, finishing it off with a .428/.492/.637 line, six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 27/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games this year. The stat line says it all, as he is a contact-oriented hitter who doesn't miss much (10.7% strikeout rate this year), and he may have enough speed to stick in center field. Though he won't hit home runs, he has plenty of gap power with that speed and line drive bat. The one thing that scares me off Moritz a bit is his .243/.323/.279 slash line and 22/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games in the Cape Cod League last summer, which raises the question of if his excellent stats this year are just a product of him playing weaker competition in the Southern Conference. 11th rounder Jake Higginbotham did a great job stepping back into the Clemson rotation this year (6-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 63/32 K/BB) after missing 2017 with an elbow injury, but he likely profiles as a reliever at the next level. The lefty should be able to run his fastball into the mid 90's and get additional outs with his pretty good slider if put in the 'pen. 12th rounder Nolan Kingham is a well known college arm who had a much better season in his sophomore season at Texas (10-4, 2.84 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 67/24 K/BB) than in his junior season (8-5, 4.57 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 81/24 K/BB). His fastball has lost velocity and now sits around 90 after hitting 97 last year, which now gives less contrast with his hard upper 80's slider. He hasn't signed yet and I'm not sure that he will at all. 13th rounder Brendan Venter is another college performer (in case you haven't picked up what kind of players I like to highlight in this section), slashing .307/.385/.510 with 12 home runs and a 45/19 strikeout to walk ratio at Auburn this year. There is power in his bat, and he has a knack for hard contact, though his plate discipline definitely needs work. He was drafted as a first baseman so the bat will have to carry him. 34th rounder Zach Hess is more of a third or fourth round talent (he ranked #102 on my list) so he likely won't sign here unless the Braves take a significant chunk of money out of their bonus pool. He's a relief prospect out of LSU who was much better in 2017 (3.12 ERA, 83/30 K/BB) than he was this year (5.05 ERA, 107/49 K/BB). The 6'6" righty can hit the upper 90's when used in relief, and his slider can be a wipeout pitch. He'll try to rebuild his stock next year in Baton Rouge.
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