First 5 rounds: Anthony Seigler (1-23), Josh Breaux (2-61), Ryder Green (3-97), Frank German (4-127), Brandon Lockridge (5-157)
Also notable: Daniel Bies (7-217), Kyle Gray (14-427), Alex Junior (19-577)
The Yankees went for upside here, grabbing two high schoolers and a JuCo bat in the first three rounds, and four of their first five picks were hitters. After that, they took six straight pitchers in rounds six through eleven, including five straight college arms. They have been very good at taking lesser-known pitchers and making solid prospects out of them, so it makes sense that they would lean pitcher heavy in the middle of the draft, and the hitters at the top will look to replenish a farm system that lacks impact bats after trades and the graduation of Gleyber Torres.
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (my rank: 44)
I'll start off by saying I don't like this pick. Seigler has plenty of upside both at the plate and behind it, but for the 23rd overall pick, there is a lot of risk here. Catchers are the toughest position to develop and often take the least linear path in terms of that development, so drafting a high schooler at the position is often a shot in the dark. That's why I a) prefer college catchers, who are further along in their development or b) taking more catchers later in the draft, hoping that one pans out. That said, Seigler is very athletic for a catcher (he switch hits AND switch pitches) and probably has a better chance than most high school catchers to continue on the trajectory he is on. There is no doubt about his talent, as he hits the ball hard from both sides of the plate with a good approach and some power to tap into. He's a good defender behind the plate, so he really does have a lot going for him. I just don't think he's worth the 23rd overall pick. If anybody is thinking about Gary Sanchez, don't be. If the Yankees think Seigler was the best talent available, they should go with him, because you never worry about position or need during the first round. They'll worry about Sanchez vs Seigler later. Seigler signed at slot for just over $2.8 million.
2-61: C Josh Breaux (my rank: 87)
Another pick, another catcher. Breaux has been dealing with some arm issues this year, so that was factored into his ranking for me, but if the Yankees liked his physical, then this isn't the worst pick, though I still think it's an overdraft. Breaux is a JuCo bat out of McLennan Community College in Waco, Texas who has absolutely mashed the pitching he has faced, including a .404/.532/.831 slash line with 18 home runs in 56 games. He does everything big, with a big, powerful swing as well as a big, powerful arm. The arm can actually reach 100 MPH on the mound, which will help his defensive value, and he'll need it because the rest of his catching game needs work. Back to the bat, there is a ton of power here, but he'll need to cut down on his strikeouts to tap into it. He's a high risk, high reward pick, though in a different way than Seigler. Again, don't worry about Gary Sanchez. Worst case scenario, the Yankees can trade Seigler and Breaux. He has not signed yet and slot value here is just over $1 million.
3-97: OF Ryder Green (my rank: 83)
Green will probably require more than the allotted $576,400 to sign, but the Yankees should save enough on their later picks to get him. He's a high school outfielder from the Knoxville, Tennessee area, one with a lot of strength who can drive balls all over the field with ease. He has a strong arm as well, one which should play well in right field. He is a bit raw at the plate though, understandable for a kid from East Tennessee, as his swing has a little bit more long-to-it, short-through-it than one would like, but that's why he fell to the third round. With some swing adjustments, he could be a 20 homer bat with pretty good defense in right field, and that's value. He's committed to Vanderbilt.
4-127: RHP Frank German (unranked)
German just finished up a dominant season at the University of North Florida, going 8-3 with a 1.58 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 108/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. The 6'2" starter should be able to remain a starter though the minors, as he has a smooth delivery, maintains his stuff throughout the game, and throws strikes. His fastball sits in the low 90's with his curve and changeup both showing promise, so he has a very good shot at ending up a back-end starter in the Bronx. He's also young for a college junior, not turning 21 until September. He has already signed, but the terms have not been released and slot value there is $430,400.
5-157: CF Brandon Lockridge (unranked)
Lockridge played center field for Troy University in Alabama, where he slashed .307/.429/.480 with four home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 46/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. He shows top of the scale speed with some gap power, and while he probably ends up a fourth outfielder, he quietly has the tools to be a little more. That 12.3% walk rate is nice to see, and the 15.3% strikeout rate isn't too bad for a fifth rounder. This is a good pick, and they got him for $300,000, which is $20,700 below slow.
Others: 7th rounder Daniel Bies had a very good junior season at Gonzaga, going 7-4 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 16 starts, striking out 124 and walking 25 in 112 innings. The 6'8" righty also pitched very well in the Cape Cod League, putting up a 3.09 ERA and a 27/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 innings against tough competition. He throws hard with a fastball that reaches the mid 90's and a curveball that looks very good, though he may be moved to the bullpen, where he could be a dominant guy on a per-inning basis. 14th rounder Kyle Gray had a huge breakout year after two so-so seasons at West Virginia University, slashing .374/.462/.677 with 14 home runs and a 41/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. He was drafted as a second baseman and should be an offensive-minded utility infielder as he moves up. That 14.5% career walk rate certainly doesn't hurt. As a fun fact, he's from a small town in Texas hill country called Blanco, and country music fans might recognize the next town to the west: Luckenbach, Texas. 19th rounder Alex Junior was the leadoff man this year for the unreal Tennessee Tech offense, slashing .316/.451/.465 with seven home runs and a 59/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games, showing very good on-base ability but a need to improve his contact. A .316 batting average is good, though it was in the Ohio Valley Conference, and his 17.4% strikeout rate is just a little too high for comfort. He'll hope to ride that 16.5% walk rate to a fourth outfielder spot in the Bronx.
Monday, June 11, 2018
Sunday, June 10, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Boston Red Sox
First 5 rounds: Triston Casas (1-26), Nick Decker (2-64), Durbin Feltman (3-100), Kole Cottam (4-130), Thad Ward (5-160)
Also notable: Devlin Granberg (6-190), Brian Brown (9-280), Nick Northcut (11-340), Zach Watson (40-1210)
The Red Sox seemingly placed a premium on two big tools early in this draft: power at the plate and power in the arm. The hitters selected early won't get confused with slap hitters, while the pitchers should move quickly on their velocity and could be in the big leagues soon as relievers. They also leaned heavily on college players after taking high schoolers with their first two picks, following them with eight straight college players, mostly hitters. The Red Sox farm system has thinned out considerably in the last few years, so they'll hope this restock does them good.
1-26: 3B Triston Casas (my rank: 28)
The Red Sox grabbed the kid with arguably the most raw power in all of high school baseball with their first round pick (though Cardinals first rounder Nolan Gorman might disagree), as Casas regularly registered some of the top exit velocities in the country with his long, lofted, powerful swing. He probably will move across the diamond to first base, but as long as he makes enough contact, his power will make the bat play there. The South Florida standout is a guy who, at his best, could chase 40 home runs every season, especially with that short porch in right field at Fenway. The left handed hitter does have a very long swing, one that makes me a little nervous that strikeouts might be an issue in pro ball, and the Red Sox definitely understand that risk. Fortunately, he's very patient at the plate, and even if his batting average sits around .240, he'll walk enough that the power and on-base percentage together should make him a valuable middle of the order bat. Like most high schoolers, he is a high upside, high risk pick in the first round. He has already signed for just over $2.55 million, slot value for the 26th overall pick.
2-64: OF Nick Decker (my rank: 86)
Decker is a similar player to Casas, though not quite as good. The New Jersey native, like Casas, has a long left handed swing that generates a ton of pop, though he looks more like a 30 home run guy than a 40 homer guy like Casas. His swing itself is actually not all that long for a power hitter, but it takes a split-second to get going, and that could be deadly once he starts facing faster pitching. It's probably correctable, but it's something to watch for. Between Casas and Decker, the Sox should get at least one power hitter for their lineup. Decker is committed to Maryland and slot value is just over $1 million here.
3-100: RHP Durbin Feltman (my rank: 67)
The scouting report is pretty simple here. The 6'1" TCU righty is a hard throwing reliever that could be up to the major leagues in a hurry, possibly even by the end of this season. Over 18 relief appearances for the Horned Frogs this year, Feltman allowed just two runs in 24 innings (0.74 ERA) while striking out 43 and walking just six. Numbers don't get much better than that, and he did it with a fastball that sits in the mid to upper 90's and that has hit 99, as well as a wipeout slider. Those two pitches alone should make him a successful major league pitcher, but it won't be as a starter, as he has a jerky delivery that wouldn't be repeatable over a full game. As a two pitch reliever, though, he can come in and shut down the opposition quickly, and his command is good enough that his floor is really just as a middle reliever. Low risk, low reward pick here, with slot value sitting just under $560,000.
4-130: C Kole Cottam (unranked)
Cottam just finished up an excellent season at Kentucky where he slashed .352/.438/.667 with 19 home runs and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. The Red Sox are buying the bat here, as he probably won't stick behind the plate, though those numbers in the tough SEC sure are pretty. Though his 18.9% strikeout rate wasn't astronomical, it's high enough to raise some questions in the bat, especially when it looks like his swing is more geared towards beating up college pitching than squaring up pro stuff. Some guys manage to make adjustments and keep hitting as they are promoted, so we'll have to see how it goes with Cottam. Slot value here is $417,800 and he should be signable.
Others: 5th rounder Thad Ward is a right handed pitcher out of the University of Central Florida, where he put up a 3.27 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 22 games (5 starts) this year, striking out 84 and walking 26 in 63 innings. The 6'3" righty should be a fast mover as a reliever, and while he won't be up as qiuckly as Feltman, he could help the bullpen in the near future. 6th rounder Devlin Granberg is an outfielder from Dallas Baptist University, where he just put up an incredible season by slashing .426/.511/.651 with eleven home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 41/50 strikeout to walk ratio. A college senior who will be 23 in September, he's understandably advanced and will likely be another fast mover through the system. Though he hits the ball hard, his swing is more geared towards line drives than home runs, so adding loft could help him but might also slow his path to the big leagues. Ultimately, he looks like a fourth outfielder or third division starter, one who could hit something like .270/.340/.440 with some speed at his best. 9th rounder Brian Brown just finished up a fantastic career at NC State, going 25-11 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over four seasons in Raleigh. This past season, he was 7-2 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 98/26 strikeout to walk ratio in 98.2 innings. The 6' left hander is more about pitchability than power stuff, sitting around 90 with his fastball but commanding it well. He should be able to remain a starter as he moves up through the minors, with the ultimate ceiling of a 4th or 5th starter. 11th rounder Nick Northcut won't sign here, as he is committed to Vanderbilt and had the talent to go in the second or third round, and the Cincinnati area high schooler could be a big part of the Commodores offense immediately once he steps on the diamond in Nashville. He's a third baseman with plenty of power from a shorter 6'1" frame, though he'll have to prove he can make enough contact to tap into it enough. 40th rounder Zach Watson is another guy who won't sign, as he had the talent to go in the second or third round as well but was taken with the fifth to last pick of the draft. The LSU outfielder has put up two similar seasons for the Tigers, slashing .312/.371/.492 with 17 home runs and 26 stolen bases over 121 games in his career, striking out 87 times while walking 33 times. The draft eligible sophomore shows the potential to impact the game with his speed, defense, contact, and even a little bit of power, but he'll have to improve his plate discipline to tap into his offensive value at the next level. He'll try to do just that in his junior year in Baton Rouge.
Also notable: Devlin Granberg (6-190), Brian Brown (9-280), Nick Northcut (11-340), Zach Watson (40-1210)
The Red Sox seemingly placed a premium on two big tools early in this draft: power at the plate and power in the arm. The hitters selected early won't get confused with slap hitters, while the pitchers should move quickly on their velocity and could be in the big leagues soon as relievers. They also leaned heavily on college players after taking high schoolers with their first two picks, following them with eight straight college players, mostly hitters. The Red Sox farm system has thinned out considerably in the last few years, so they'll hope this restock does them good.
1-26: 3B Triston Casas (my rank: 28)
The Red Sox grabbed the kid with arguably the most raw power in all of high school baseball with their first round pick (though Cardinals first rounder Nolan Gorman might disagree), as Casas regularly registered some of the top exit velocities in the country with his long, lofted, powerful swing. He probably will move across the diamond to first base, but as long as he makes enough contact, his power will make the bat play there. The South Florida standout is a guy who, at his best, could chase 40 home runs every season, especially with that short porch in right field at Fenway. The left handed hitter does have a very long swing, one that makes me a little nervous that strikeouts might be an issue in pro ball, and the Red Sox definitely understand that risk. Fortunately, he's very patient at the plate, and even if his batting average sits around .240, he'll walk enough that the power and on-base percentage together should make him a valuable middle of the order bat. Like most high schoolers, he is a high upside, high risk pick in the first round. He has already signed for just over $2.55 million, slot value for the 26th overall pick.
2-64: OF Nick Decker (my rank: 86)
Decker is a similar player to Casas, though not quite as good. The New Jersey native, like Casas, has a long left handed swing that generates a ton of pop, though he looks more like a 30 home run guy than a 40 homer guy like Casas. His swing itself is actually not all that long for a power hitter, but it takes a split-second to get going, and that could be deadly once he starts facing faster pitching. It's probably correctable, but it's something to watch for. Between Casas and Decker, the Sox should get at least one power hitter for their lineup. Decker is committed to Maryland and slot value is just over $1 million here.
3-100: RHP Durbin Feltman (my rank: 67)
The scouting report is pretty simple here. The 6'1" TCU righty is a hard throwing reliever that could be up to the major leagues in a hurry, possibly even by the end of this season. Over 18 relief appearances for the Horned Frogs this year, Feltman allowed just two runs in 24 innings (0.74 ERA) while striking out 43 and walking just six. Numbers don't get much better than that, and he did it with a fastball that sits in the mid to upper 90's and that has hit 99, as well as a wipeout slider. Those two pitches alone should make him a successful major league pitcher, but it won't be as a starter, as he has a jerky delivery that wouldn't be repeatable over a full game. As a two pitch reliever, though, he can come in and shut down the opposition quickly, and his command is good enough that his floor is really just as a middle reliever. Low risk, low reward pick here, with slot value sitting just under $560,000.
4-130: C Kole Cottam (unranked)
Cottam just finished up an excellent season at Kentucky where he slashed .352/.438/.667 with 19 home runs and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. The Red Sox are buying the bat here, as he probably won't stick behind the plate, though those numbers in the tough SEC sure are pretty. Though his 18.9% strikeout rate wasn't astronomical, it's high enough to raise some questions in the bat, especially when it looks like his swing is more geared towards beating up college pitching than squaring up pro stuff. Some guys manage to make adjustments and keep hitting as they are promoted, so we'll have to see how it goes with Cottam. Slot value here is $417,800 and he should be signable.
Others: 5th rounder Thad Ward is a right handed pitcher out of the University of Central Florida, where he put up a 3.27 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 22 games (5 starts) this year, striking out 84 and walking 26 in 63 innings. The 6'3" righty should be a fast mover as a reliever, and while he won't be up as qiuckly as Feltman, he could help the bullpen in the near future. 6th rounder Devlin Granberg is an outfielder from Dallas Baptist University, where he just put up an incredible season by slashing .426/.511/.651 with eleven home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 41/50 strikeout to walk ratio. A college senior who will be 23 in September, he's understandably advanced and will likely be another fast mover through the system. Though he hits the ball hard, his swing is more geared towards line drives than home runs, so adding loft could help him but might also slow his path to the big leagues. Ultimately, he looks like a fourth outfielder or third division starter, one who could hit something like .270/.340/.440 with some speed at his best. 9th rounder Brian Brown just finished up a fantastic career at NC State, going 25-11 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over four seasons in Raleigh. This past season, he was 7-2 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 98/26 strikeout to walk ratio in 98.2 innings. The 6' left hander is more about pitchability than power stuff, sitting around 90 with his fastball but commanding it well. He should be able to remain a starter as he moves up through the minors, with the ultimate ceiling of a 4th or 5th starter. 11th rounder Nick Northcut won't sign here, as he is committed to Vanderbilt and had the talent to go in the second or third round, and the Cincinnati area high schooler could be a big part of the Commodores offense immediately once he steps on the diamond in Nashville. He's a third baseman with plenty of power from a shorter 6'1" frame, though he'll have to prove he can make enough contact to tap into it enough. 40th rounder Zach Watson is another guy who won't sign, as he had the talent to go in the second or third round as well but was taken with the fifth to last pick of the draft. The LSU outfielder has put up two similar seasons for the Tigers, slashing .312/.371/.492 with 17 home runs and 26 stolen bases over 121 games in his career, striking out 87 times while walking 33 times. The draft eligible sophomore shows the potential to impact the game with his speed, defense, contact, and even a little bit of power, but he'll have to improve his plate discipline to tap into his offensive value at the next level. He'll try to do just that in his junior year in Baton Rouge.
Saturday, June 9, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles
First 5 rounds: Grayson Rodriguez (1-11), Cadyn Grenier (CBA-37), Blaine Knight (3-87), Drew Rom (4-115), Robert Neustrom (5-145)
Also notable: Cody Roberts (11-325), Trevor Putzig (17-505), Conor Grammes (35-1045), Slade Cecconi (38-1135)
The Orioles mixed up their class well, going high school upside pitcher, college infielder, college pitcher, high school pitcher, college hitter in the first five rounds. The balance continued throughout the draft, as Baltimore restocked a fairly barren system that is really lacking in every department. past They haven't been great at developing talent lately, so they'll hope to get a few Ryan Mountcastle's instead of a Cody Sedlock.
1-11: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (my rank: 27)
I ranked Rodriguez down at 27 due to his risk, but his upside could justify this pick. The 6'5" righty out of Nacogdoches, Texas came into the spring in much better shape than he had been in over the summer and the results showed, with his exceptional arm strength leading the way. He can get his fastball up to 98 and sits in the mid 90's, with its heavy life generating plenty of ground balls and making it a plus pitch. His hard-biting slider is his best secondary, and he also throws a curve and a changeup, giving him a full arsenal to go with that top notch arm strength. That's what pushed him up to pick eleven, but there are some negatives to his profile that make me think he shouldn't have gone so early. The biggest thing is that he has a very arm-heavy delivery, one that puts a lot of stress on that right arm and could make him more of an injury risk. Through that delivery, he also holds the ball down behind him for a long enough time that pro hitters could get a good luck at the pitch and take advantage. That will need to change. He has a high ceiling as well as a high floor. The pick value here is $4.4 million and he has already expressed interest in signing, and it's not out of the question that he could sign under-slot.
CBA-37: SS Cadyn Grenier (my rank: 82)
Grenier is universally regarded as one of the best, if not the best, defensive shortstops in college baseball, manning the position for the powerhouse Oregon State club that also includes first round picks Nick Madrigal (White Sox) and Trevor Larnach (Twins). While there is no question that Grenier can stay at shortstop and thrive there, whether he hits enough is a question. In 58 games for the Beavers heading into the draft, Grenier had slashed a respectable .328/.415/.478 with five home runs and a 49/29 strikeout to walk ratio. Those are good college numbers, but I'm not quite sure it's enough to justify a pick that high unless he signs under-slot. He doesn't have much projection as a hitter, so he'll have to continue hitting for contact and drawing walks to provide value with the bat. His strikeout and walk rates were 17.1% and 10.1% prior to the draft, respectively, which isn't ideal for the kind of player he is. Superb glove, but it won't matter if he can't hit his way through the minors. Slot value is $1.9 million, though I expect him to sign for less than that.
3-87: RHP Blaine Knight (my rank: 50)
Knight is a very good pitcher to grab in the third round, but they'll likely have to take whatever money they save on Grenier and put it towards him because I see him wanting more than the slot value of $663,200. Knight, like Grenier, comes from a powerhouse baseball program, acting as the ace of the Arkansas rotation the past two seasons. This year, heading into super-regionals, he is 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, racking up an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 95 innings. That gives him a three year track record of success in the SEC, and he has good command of a four pitch arsenal. It's headlined by a low to mid 90's fastball, but also includes a good slider and a workable curveball and changeup. That's a starter's profile, but he does have a few negatives on his resume. He's 6'3" but is listed at just 165 pounds, and while for most pitchers that would scream projectability and the promise of more velocity, he has such a skinny build that it could lead to durability issues, which would push him to the bullpen. He was eligible last season as an older sophomore and could have been a second round pick, but high bonus demands pushed him down to the 29th round and he returned to school. That means he'll turn 22 in a couple of weeks and is older than most college juniors. For the third round, the combination of present stuff and ceiling is a good value, so long as they can sign him away from his senior year in Fayetteville.
5-145: RF Robert Neustrom (unranked)
Neustrom just finished his junior year at the University of Iowa and has been a very productive player there, slashing .310/.376/.484 over three seasons, coming in at a career best .311/.386/.538 this year with eleven home runs and a 34/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Impressively, he played very well in the Cape Cod League last summer, slashing .302/.346/.479 with four home runs and a 22/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games. The K/BB wasn't all that pretty, but those are very good numbers for how tough of a league the Cape is. The bat will have to play, because his defense is just adequate and he might be forced to move to left field. I have confidence that it could, as he does a lot of things well at the plate, from his above average power and plate discipline to his well-regarded work ethic and success on the Cape. The slot value is $361,000, and I like this pick.
Others: Fourth rounder Drew Rom is a 6'2" left handed pitcher out of a Kentucky high school near Cincinnati. He throws his fastball right around 90 right now, but his slider is his best pitch with hard bite in on right handed hitters. He's more upside than floor, but he does have the tools to work with. Pick value is $483,300 and he's committed to Michigan, but my guess is that he probably signs. 11th rounder Cody Roberts has been UNC's catcher for three years, and while he hasn't hit all that much (.266/.357/.358 career), his glove is very good and he walks enough to put some value in the bat as well. He could work his way into a backup catcher's role in Baltimore. 17th rounder Trevor Putzig has been one of the best bats on the unstoppable Tennessee Tech offense this year, slashing .313/.423/.615 with 16 home runs and a 38/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 50 games. He was drafted as a third baseman and will get the chance to try to stay there, though he may have to move to the outfield eventually. One negative is his age, as he turns 23 in August and was the oldest of the Orioles' 40 draft picks. 35th rounder Conor Grammes is a local Northern Virginia kid, one who I played against in high school when I was at James Madison in Vienna and he was at McLean. He has hit and hit and hit since getting to Xavier, slashing .336/.378/.508 with a 17 home runs and an 87/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games in his two years in Cincinnati. Interestingly though, he was drafted as a pitcher despite finishing this season 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA, a 1.79 WHIP, and a 45/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings. His strikeout rate is great, but he'll need to improve his command dramatically if he wants to push his way up as a reliever. He's a draft-eligible sophomore, so I'm not sure he signs here. Lastly, 38th rounder Slade Cecconi could have been drafted in the second or third round, but signing bonus demands pushed him down to the 38th and he almost definitely goes to the University of Miami instead of the Orioles' minor league system. The 6''4" high school righty ranked 80th on my list, showing a lot of inconsistency but a lot of upside as well. Over the summer last year, he was up to 97 with his fastball and showed projectable offspeed pitches, but he lost a few miles per hour off his fastball in the spring and never really established his slider or his curveball as a dominant pitch. As I said, he likely heads to The U, but he could emerge after two years (he'll be a draft eligible sophomore in 2020) as a first round pick.
Also notable: Cody Roberts (11-325), Trevor Putzig (17-505), Conor Grammes (35-1045), Slade Cecconi (38-1135)
The Orioles mixed up their class well, going high school upside pitcher, college infielder, college pitcher, high school pitcher, college hitter in the first five rounds. The balance continued throughout the draft, as Baltimore restocked a fairly barren system that is really lacking in every department. past They haven't been great at developing talent lately, so they'll hope to get a few Ryan Mountcastle's instead of a Cody Sedlock.
1-11: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (my rank: 27)
I ranked Rodriguez down at 27 due to his risk, but his upside could justify this pick. The 6'5" righty out of Nacogdoches, Texas came into the spring in much better shape than he had been in over the summer and the results showed, with his exceptional arm strength leading the way. He can get his fastball up to 98 and sits in the mid 90's, with its heavy life generating plenty of ground balls and making it a plus pitch. His hard-biting slider is his best secondary, and he also throws a curve and a changeup, giving him a full arsenal to go with that top notch arm strength. That's what pushed him up to pick eleven, but there are some negatives to his profile that make me think he shouldn't have gone so early. The biggest thing is that he has a very arm-heavy delivery, one that puts a lot of stress on that right arm and could make him more of an injury risk. Through that delivery, he also holds the ball down behind him for a long enough time that pro hitters could get a good luck at the pitch and take advantage. That will need to change. He has a high ceiling as well as a high floor. The pick value here is $4.4 million and he has already expressed interest in signing, and it's not out of the question that he could sign under-slot.
CBA-37: SS Cadyn Grenier (my rank: 82)
Grenier is universally regarded as one of the best, if not the best, defensive shortstops in college baseball, manning the position for the powerhouse Oregon State club that also includes first round picks Nick Madrigal (White Sox) and Trevor Larnach (Twins). While there is no question that Grenier can stay at shortstop and thrive there, whether he hits enough is a question. In 58 games for the Beavers heading into the draft, Grenier had slashed a respectable .328/.415/.478 with five home runs and a 49/29 strikeout to walk ratio. Those are good college numbers, but I'm not quite sure it's enough to justify a pick that high unless he signs under-slot. He doesn't have much projection as a hitter, so he'll have to continue hitting for contact and drawing walks to provide value with the bat. His strikeout and walk rates were 17.1% and 10.1% prior to the draft, respectively, which isn't ideal for the kind of player he is. Superb glove, but it won't matter if he can't hit his way through the minors. Slot value is $1.9 million, though I expect him to sign for less than that.
3-87: RHP Blaine Knight (my rank: 50)
Knight is a very good pitcher to grab in the third round, but they'll likely have to take whatever money they save on Grenier and put it towards him because I see him wanting more than the slot value of $663,200. Knight, like Grenier, comes from a powerhouse baseball program, acting as the ace of the Arkansas rotation the past two seasons. This year, heading into super-regionals, he is 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, racking up an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 95 innings. That gives him a three year track record of success in the SEC, and he has good command of a four pitch arsenal. It's headlined by a low to mid 90's fastball, but also includes a good slider and a workable curveball and changeup. That's a starter's profile, but he does have a few negatives on his resume. He's 6'3" but is listed at just 165 pounds, and while for most pitchers that would scream projectability and the promise of more velocity, he has such a skinny build that it could lead to durability issues, which would push him to the bullpen. He was eligible last season as an older sophomore and could have been a second round pick, but high bonus demands pushed him down to the 29th round and he returned to school. That means he'll turn 22 in a couple of weeks and is older than most college juniors. For the third round, the combination of present stuff and ceiling is a good value, so long as they can sign him away from his senior year in Fayetteville.
5-145: RF Robert Neustrom (unranked)
Neustrom just finished his junior year at the University of Iowa and has been a very productive player there, slashing .310/.376/.484 over three seasons, coming in at a career best .311/.386/.538 this year with eleven home runs and a 34/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Impressively, he played very well in the Cape Cod League last summer, slashing .302/.346/.479 with four home runs and a 22/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games. The K/BB wasn't all that pretty, but those are very good numbers for how tough of a league the Cape is. The bat will have to play, because his defense is just adequate and he might be forced to move to left field. I have confidence that it could, as he does a lot of things well at the plate, from his above average power and plate discipline to his well-regarded work ethic and success on the Cape. The slot value is $361,000, and I like this pick.
Others: Fourth rounder Drew Rom is a 6'2" left handed pitcher out of a Kentucky high school near Cincinnati. He throws his fastball right around 90 right now, but his slider is his best pitch with hard bite in on right handed hitters. He's more upside than floor, but he does have the tools to work with. Pick value is $483,300 and he's committed to Michigan, but my guess is that he probably signs. 11th rounder Cody Roberts has been UNC's catcher for three years, and while he hasn't hit all that much (.266/.357/.358 career), his glove is very good and he walks enough to put some value in the bat as well. He could work his way into a backup catcher's role in Baltimore. 17th rounder Trevor Putzig has been one of the best bats on the unstoppable Tennessee Tech offense this year, slashing .313/.423/.615 with 16 home runs and a 38/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 50 games. He was drafted as a third baseman and will get the chance to try to stay there, though he may have to move to the outfield eventually. One negative is his age, as he turns 23 in August and was the oldest of the Orioles' 40 draft picks. 35th rounder Conor Grammes is a local Northern Virginia kid, one who I played against in high school when I was at James Madison in Vienna and he was at McLean. He has hit and hit and hit since getting to Xavier, slashing .336/.378/.508 with a 17 home runs and an 87/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games in his two years in Cincinnati. Interestingly though, he was drafted as a pitcher despite finishing this season 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA, a 1.79 WHIP, and a 45/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings. His strikeout rate is great, but he'll need to improve his command dramatically if he wants to push his way up as a reliever. He's a draft-eligible sophomore, so I'm not sure he signs here. Lastly, 38th rounder Slade Cecconi could have been drafted in the second or third round, but signing bonus demands pushed him down to the 38th and he almost definitely goes to the University of Miami instead of the Orioles' minor league system. The 6''4" high school righty ranked 80th on my list, showing a lot of inconsistency but a lot of upside as well. Over the summer last year, he was up to 97 with his fastball and showed projectable offspeed pitches, but he lost a few miles per hour off his fastball in the spring and never really established his slider or his curveball as a dominant pitch. As I said, he likely heads to The U, but he could emerge after two years (he'll be a draft eligible sophomore in 2020) as a first round pick.
Monday, June 4, 2018
Top 75 Prospects for the 2018 Draft
The following list is based on video analysis and scouting reports, compiled based on who I think will be the best players when all is said and done. It is not a mock draft.
1. LHP Casey Mize (Auburn)
2. RHP Brady Singer (Florida)
3. LHP Matthew Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS, AZ)
4. C Joey Bart (Georgia Tech)
5. 2B Nick Madrigal (Oregon State)
6. RHP Carter Stewart (Eau Gallie HS, FL)
7. 3B Alec Bohm (Wichita State)
8. OF Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)
9. RHP Cole Winn (Orange Lutheran HS, CA)
10. OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI)
11. CF Connor Scott (Plant HS, FL)
12. 3B Jonathan India (Florida)
13. 3B Nolan Gorman (O’Connor HS, AZ)
14. OF Trevor Larnach (Oregon State)
15. RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
16. RHP Jackson Kowar (Florida)
17. SS Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA)
18. LHP Ryan Weathers (Loretto HS, TN)
19. RHP Cole Wilcox (Heritage HS, GA)
20. RHP Kumar Rocker (North Oconee HS, GA)
21. LHP Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss)
22. RHP Ethan Hankins (Forsyth Central HS, GA)
23. RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island HS, FL)
24. LHP Shane McClanahan (South Florida)
25. OF Greyson Jenista (Wichita State)
26. SS Xavier Edwards (North Broward Prep HS, FL)
27. RHP Grayson Rodriguez (Central Heights HS, TX)
28. 1B Triston Casas (American Heritage HS, FL)
29. C Noah Naylor (St. Joan of Arc HS, ON)
30. IF Jeremy Eierman (Missouri State)
31. CF Jake McCarthy (Virginia)
32. 3B Jordan Groshans (Magnolia HS, TX)
33. CF Jordyn Adams (Green Hope HS, NC)
34. CF Mike Siani (Penn Charter HS, PA)
35. LHP Daniel Lynch (Virginia)
36. RF Griffin Conine (Duke)
37. OF Steele Walker (Oklahoma)
38. RHP Adam Kloffenstein (Magnolia HS, TX)
39. CF Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)
40. RHP Gunnar Hoglund (Fivay HS, FL)
41. RHP Tristan Beck (Stanford)
42. 1B Seth Beer (Clemson)
43. RHP Lenny Torres Jr. (Beacon HS, NY)
44. C Anthony Seigler (Cartersville HS, GA)
45. CF Nick Schnell (Roncalli HS, IN)
46. RHP Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
47. OF Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel HS, IL)
48. CF Jameson Hannah (Dallas Baptist)
49. CF Parker Meadows (Grayson HS, GA)
50. RHP Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
51. 1B Luken Baker (Texas Christian)
52. C Will Banfield (Brookwood HS, GA)
53. SS Jeremiah Jackson (St. Luke’s Episcopal HS, AL)
54. RHP Owen White (Carson HS, NC)
55. RHP Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
56. RHP J.T. Ginn (Brandon HS, MS)
57. SS Jonathan Ornelas (Kellis HS, AZ)
58. OF Kyle Isbel (Nevada-Las Vegas)
59. LHP Kris Bubic (Stanford)
60. CF Tristan Pompey (Kentucky)
61. RF Joe Gray Jr. (Hattiesburg HS, MS)
62. RHP Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
63. 3B Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy HS, FL)
64. IF Nico Hoerner (Stanford)
65. IF Matt McLain (Beckman HS, CA)
66. LHP Konnor Pilkington (Mississippi State)
67. RHP Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
68. 1B Grant Lavigne (Bedford HS, NH)
69. RHP Jaden Hill (Ashdown HS, AR)
70. LHP Steven Gingery (Texas Tech)
71. LHP Tim Cate (Connecticut)
72. RHP Braydon Fisher (Clear Falls HS, TX)
73. IF Tyler Frank (Florida Atlantic)
74. RHP Jayson Schroeder (Juanita HS, WA)
75. CF Zach Watson (Louisiana State)
1. LHP Casey Mize (Auburn)
2. RHP Brady Singer (Florida)
3. LHP Matthew Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS, AZ)
4. C Joey Bart (Georgia Tech)
5. 2B Nick Madrigal (Oregon State)
6. RHP Carter Stewart (Eau Gallie HS, FL)
7. 3B Alec Bohm (Wichita State)
8. OF Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)
9. RHP Cole Winn (Orange Lutheran HS, CA)
10. OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI)
11. CF Connor Scott (Plant HS, FL)
12. 3B Jonathan India (Florida)
13. 3B Nolan Gorman (O’Connor HS, AZ)
14. OF Trevor Larnach (Oregon State)
15. RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
16. RHP Jackson Kowar (Florida)
17. SS Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA)
18. LHP Ryan Weathers (Loretto HS, TN)
19. RHP Cole Wilcox (Heritage HS, GA)
20. RHP Kumar Rocker (North Oconee HS, GA)
21. LHP Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss)
22. RHP Ethan Hankins (Forsyth Central HS, GA)
23. RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island HS, FL)
24. LHP Shane McClanahan (South Florida)
25. OF Greyson Jenista (Wichita State)
26. SS Xavier Edwards (North Broward Prep HS, FL)
27. RHP Grayson Rodriguez (Central Heights HS, TX)
28. 1B Triston Casas (American Heritage HS, FL)
29. C Noah Naylor (St. Joan of Arc HS, ON)
30. IF Jeremy Eierman (Missouri State)
31. CF Jake McCarthy (Virginia)
32. 3B Jordan Groshans (Magnolia HS, TX)
33. CF Jordyn Adams (Green Hope HS, NC)
34. CF Mike Siani (Penn Charter HS, PA)
35. LHP Daniel Lynch (Virginia)
36. RF Griffin Conine (Duke)
37. OF Steele Walker (Oklahoma)
38. RHP Adam Kloffenstein (Magnolia HS, TX)
39. CF Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)
40. RHP Gunnar Hoglund (Fivay HS, FL)
41. RHP Tristan Beck (Stanford)
42. 1B Seth Beer (Clemson)
43. RHP Lenny Torres Jr. (Beacon HS, NY)
44. C Anthony Seigler (Cartersville HS, GA)
45. CF Nick Schnell (Roncalli HS, IN)
46. RHP Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
47. OF Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel HS, IL)
48. CF Jameson Hannah (Dallas Baptist)
49. CF Parker Meadows (Grayson HS, GA)
50. RHP Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
51. 1B Luken Baker (Texas Christian)
52. C Will Banfield (Brookwood HS, GA)
53. SS Jeremiah Jackson (St. Luke’s Episcopal HS, AL)
54. RHP Owen White (Carson HS, NC)
55. RHP Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
56. RHP J.T. Ginn (Brandon HS, MS)
57. SS Jonathan Ornelas (Kellis HS, AZ)
58. OF Kyle Isbel (Nevada-Las Vegas)
59. LHP Kris Bubic (Stanford)
60. CF Tristan Pompey (Kentucky)
61. RF Joe Gray Jr. (Hattiesburg HS, MS)
62. RHP Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
63. 3B Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy HS, FL)
64. IF Nico Hoerner (Stanford)
65. IF Matt McLain (Beckman HS, CA)
66. LHP Konnor Pilkington (Mississippi State)
67. RHP Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
68. 1B Grant Lavigne (Bedford HS, NH)
69. RHP Jaden Hill (Ashdown HS, AR)
70. LHP Steven Gingery (Texas Tech)
71. LHP Tim Cate (Connecticut)
72. RHP Braydon Fisher (Clear Falls HS, TX)
73. IF Tyler Frank (Florida Atlantic)
74. RHP Jayson Schroeder (Juanita HS, WA)
75. CF Zach Watson (Louisiana State)
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 College LHP's
The college lefty class is a bit more spread out than the high school lefty class, though it does lack the impact arms of the college righty class. Ryan Rolison and Shane McClanahan have both been up and down this season, but no one stepped forward quite enough to keep them from being the top two in the demographic.
1. Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss)
There is no clear top of the draft college lefty, but Ryan Rolison has been doing his best to ensure he's the first one off the board. After a very good freshman season, he has been a bit more inconsistent as a draft-eligible sophomore, going 10-4 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 120/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings, getting roughed up against some admittedly tough SEC opponents. The 6'2" lefty lacks much physical projection but already throws in the low to mid 90's with arguably the draft's best curveball, one he can spot to either side of the plate and generate plenty of swings and misses with. He also dominated the Cape Cod League with it (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 35/10 K/BB) and is younger than most draft eligible college players, turning 21 in July. If he can improve his fastball command, he'll be able to deploy his curveball more strategically and could be in impact arm. He'll have to do that though, or else pro hitters will just sit on that curve. He could go anywhere in the first round outside the top ten picks.
2. Shane McClanahan (South Florida)
McClanahan looked like a candidate to go in the top five picks last fall, but an up and down spring has clouded his draft status. Over 14 starts, he went 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 120/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings, proving to be both wild and overwhelming. The 6'1" lefty's best trait is fastball velocity, as he has hit 100 before and can sit in the mid to upper 90's, even as a starter. That alone keeps him in the first round conversation, but the rest of his game needs work. His changeup is excellent at its best but has been inconsistent, and he has never quite developed a reliable breaking ball, something he'll need to do at the pro level to remain a starter. His command is also spotty, which could push him to the bullpen, where he could close. He's a high upside arm that could blossom under pro coaching, but he has a lot to work on for a college pitcher. He could go anywhere from the middle of the first round to the end of it.
3. Daniel Lynch (Virginia)
Lynch is a late riser in this draft class, one who wasn't much of a prospect at the beginning of the season but who has changed that in a big way with his performance as a junior, going 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings. The numbers don't look all that great on the surface, but he throws strikes, has seen his velocity bump into the low 90's, throws a pair of decent breaking balls, and can put away hitters with an excellent changeup. He's trending in the right direction, is projectable at 6'4", and could even crack the first round.
4. Kris Bubic (Stanford)
Bubic is another pitchability lefty, showing a stockier build at 6'3" but putting away college hitters with a low 90's fastball and an excellent changeup. As a junior at Stanford, he went 8-1 with a 2.62 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 101/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. He lacks much projection, but he's young for the class and has the command to buy the rest of his game time to catch up. He'll likely go somewhere near the beginning of the second round.
5. Konnor Pilkington (Mississippi State)
Pilkington is an interesting player, one who dominated the SEC as a sophomore (8-5, 3.08 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 111/47 K/BB) and then dominated the Cape Cod League over the summer (1.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/12 K/BB) without premium stuff or command. The holes in his profile were exposed in 2018, as he finished 2-6 with a 4.63 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 97/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 90.1 innings. He throws in the low 90's with decent offspeeds, but he doesn't through enough strikes to make them play up in pro ball yet and will need to step it up somehow. Still the past success in the SEC as well as the Cape is enough to get his name into the top couple of rounds, and being young for a college junior, he has a little bit more development time.
Others: Steven Gingery (Texas Tech), Tim Cate (UConn)
1. Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss)
There is no clear top of the draft college lefty, but Ryan Rolison has been doing his best to ensure he's the first one off the board. After a very good freshman season, he has been a bit more inconsistent as a draft-eligible sophomore, going 10-4 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 120/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings, getting roughed up against some admittedly tough SEC opponents. The 6'2" lefty lacks much physical projection but already throws in the low to mid 90's with arguably the draft's best curveball, one he can spot to either side of the plate and generate plenty of swings and misses with. He also dominated the Cape Cod League with it (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 35/10 K/BB) and is younger than most draft eligible college players, turning 21 in July. If he can improve his fastball command, he'll be able to deploy his curveball more strategically and could be in impact arm. He'll have to do that though, or else pro hitters will just sit on that curve. He could go anywhere in the first round outside the top ten picks.
2. Shane McClanahan (South Florida)
McClanahan looked like a candidate to go in the top five picks last fall, but an up and down spring has clouded his draft status. Over 14 starts, he went 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 120/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings, proving to be both wild and overwhelming. The 6'1" lefty's best trait is fastball velocity, as he has hit 100 before and can sit in the mid to upper 90's, even as a starter. That alone keeps him in the first round conversation, but the rest of his game needs work. His changeup is excellent at its best but has been inconsistent, and he has never quite developed a reliable breaking ball, something he'll need to do at the pro level to remain a starter. His command is also spotty, which could push him to the bullpen, where he could close. He's a high upside arm that could blossom under pro coaching, but he has a lot to work on for a college pitcher. He could go anywhere from the middle of the first round to the end of it.
3. Daniel Lynch (Virginia)
Lynch is a late riser in this draft class, one who wasn't much of a prospect at the beginning of the season but who has changed that in a big way with his performance as a junior, going 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings. The numbers don't look all that great on the surface, but he throws strikes, has seen his velocity bump into the low 90's, throws a pair of decent breaking balls, and can put away hitters with an excellent changeup. He's trending in the right direction, is projectable at 6'4", and could even crack the first round.
4. Kris Bubic (Stanford)
Bubic is another pitchability lefty, showing a stockier build at 6'3" but putting away college hitters with a low 90's fastball and an excellent changeup. As a junior at Stanford, he went 8-1 with a 2.62 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 101/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. He lacks much projection, but he's young for the class and has the command to buy the rest of his game time to catch up. He'll likely go somewhere near the beginning of the second round.
5. Konnor Pilkington (Mississippi State)
Pilkington is an interesting player, one who dominated the SEC as a sophomore (8-5, 3.08 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 111/47 K/BB) and then dominated the Cape Cod League over the summer (1.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/12 K/BB) without premium stuff or command. The holes in his profile were exposed in 2018, as he finished 2-6 with a 4.63 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 97/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 90.1 innings. He throws in the low 90's with decent offspeeds, but he doesn't through enough strikes to make them play up in pro ball yet and will need to step it up somehow. Still the past success in the SEC as well as the Cape is enough to get his name into the top couple of rounds, and being young for a college junior, he has a little bit more development time.
Others: Steven Gingery (Texas Tech), Tim Cate (UConn)
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 High School LHP's
Behind the clear top two, this class of high school left handers is very shallow, with Matthew Liberatore and Ryan Weathers looking like clear first rounders but nobody else looking like a lock for even the top 100 picks. Interestingly, the top four high school lefties in this class are actually about pitchability over stuff, which isn't common, but also limits ceilings. I'm personally a big fan of Liberatore, Hansen, and Wade.
1. Matthew Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS, AZ)
I'm a huge fan of Liberatore, who reminds me a ton of Clayton Kershaw. The 6'5" lefty gets by on pitchability rather than velocity, throwing in the low 90's with a very good curveball, slider, and changeup, commanding it all very well for a high schooler. He has even been up to 97 with that fastball, showing upside to go along with his already advanced game. In addition to having the exact same arsenal as Kershaw, the two have very similar deliveries, and it wouldn't surprise me if Liberatore ended up an All Star. He has been a bit inconsistent this spring, but that's because he has looked better than expected at times, not worse. He's committed to Arizona but won't get there because he'll be taken in the top ten picks.
2. Ryan Weathers (Loretto HS, TN)
Weathers is another pitchability left hander, lacking physical projection at 6'2" but making up for it with very good present stuff. He currently throws in the low 90's with a curveball that flashes plus and a changeup that is very advanced for his age, and he commands it all very well for a high schooler. He shouldn't take as long to develop as other high school pitchers and could be a mid rotation starter. He's committed to Vanderbilt, but should be signable when he's drafted somewhere in the second half of the first round.
3. Brett Hansen (Foothill HS, CA)
There is a huge gap in high school left handers after Weathers, but Hansen is yet another pitchability guy who makes his stuff play up with a clean delivery and good control. His fastball sits around 90, but he is projectable at 6'4" and also has pretty good secondary stuff. He's committed to Vanderbilt as well, but will be a tough sign as a Mormon with a possible mission looming. He could go anywhere from the third round to undrafted.
4. Garrett Wade (Hartselle HS, AL)
I am a fan of the 6'2" lefty from northern Alabama, as he throws his fastball around 90 but generates high spin rates that make it play above its velocity. He also has a full arsenal with a slider, curve, and changeup, and his three quarters delivery is deceptive enough that it all plays up with his good command. He's a sleeper who could outplay his draft position, likely somewhere in the third or fourth round, and he's committed to Auburn.
5. Garrett McDaniels (Pee Dee Academy, SC)
McDaniels is very raw as a pitcher, throwing in the upper 80's to low 90's from a very skinny 6'2" frame, but his best pitch is currently his power curveball. There is upside here with his deceptive delivery, but the risk is also high due to numerous factors including his build and present stuff. He's probably best off attending Coastal Carolina but otherwise profiles as a fourth to sixth round pick.
1. Matthew Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS, AZ)
I'm a huge fan of Liberatore, who reminds me a ton of Clayton Kershaw. The 6'5" lefty gets by on pitchability rather than velocity, throwing in the low 90's with a very good curveball, slider, and changeup, commanding it all very well for a high schooler. He has even been up to 97 with that fastball, showing upside to go along with his already advanced game. In addition to having the exact same arsenal as Kershaw, the two have very similar deliveries, and it wouldn't surprise me if Liberatore ended up an All Star. He has been a bit inconsistent this spring, but that's because he has looked better than expected at times, not worse. He's committed to Arizona but won't get there because he'll be taken in the top ten picks.
2. Ryan Weathers (Loretto HS, TN)
Weathers is another pitchability left hander, lacking physical projection at 6'2" but making up for it with very good present stuff. He currently throws in the low 90's with a curveball that flashes plus and a changeup that is very advanced for his age, and he commands it all very well for a high schooler. He shouldn't take as long to develop as other high school pitchers and could be a mid rotation starter. He's committed to Vanderbilt, but should be signable when he's drafted somewhere in the second half of the first round.
3. Brett Hansen (Foothill HS, CA)
There is a huge gap in high school left handers after Weathers, but Hansen is yet another pitchability guy who makes his stuff play up with a clean delivery and good control. His fastball sits around 90, but he is projectable at 6'4" and also has pretty good secondary stuff. He's committed to Vanderbilt as well, but will be a tough sign as a Mormon with a possible mission looming. He could go anywhere from the third round to undrafted.
4. Garrett Wade (Hartselle HS, AL)
I am a fan of the 6'2" lefty from northern Alabama, as he throws his fastball around 90 but generates high spin rates that make it play above its velocity. He also has a full arsenal with a slider, curve, and changeup, and his three quarters delivery is deceptive enough that it all plays up with his good command. He's a sleeper who could outplay his draft position, likely somewhere in the third or fourth round, and he's committed to Auburn.
5. Garrett McDaniels (Pee Dee Academy, SC)
McDaniels is very raw as a pitcher, throwing in the upper 80's to low 90's from a very skinny 6'2" frame, but his best pitch is currently his power curveball. There is upside here with his deceptive delivery, but the risk is also high due to numerous factors including his build and present stuff. He's probably best off attending Coastal Carolina but otherwise profiles as a fourth to sixth round pick.
2018 MLB Draft: Top 10 College RHP's
College right handers are always popular on draft day, as they are often close to finished products and can get to the major leagues pretty quickly. Casey Mize is all but certain to go first overall, and four of these guys will almost certainly go in the first round. Five of the first seven guys on this list come from the SEC, which isn't surprising when you realize that Max Scherzer (Missouri), Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt), Aaron Nola (LSU), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), Lance Lynn (Ole Miss), and plenty more were all SEC right handers.
1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.
2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.
3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.
4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.
5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.
6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.
7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.
8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.
9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.
10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.
Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)
1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.
2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.
3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.
4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.
5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.
6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.
7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.
8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.
9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.
10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.
Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)
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