2023 MLB Draft: Ten options for the Nationals at second overall

Had draft order rules not changed with the most recent CBA, the Nationals would be picking first overall for the first time since their back to back picks in 2009 and 2010, which netted the team future franchise cornerstones Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. The CBA created a draft lottery that no longer guaranteed the Nationals the first overall pick, but all told, they should be very happy to come away with the second overall pick.

Mike Rizzo and the Nationals have drafted incredibly poorly over the past decade or so, not only whiffing on almost every single first round pick but also failing to find value later in the draft, which in reality matters even more than that first pick. The team has not drafted and developed an impact player since Anthony Rendon in 2011 – not in the first round, not in the second round, and not in the twentieth round. That is the result of a player development system that has fallen far, far behind most of the rest of the league, relying on traditional development methods rather than embracing new technology and trends in the game. Fortunately, however, the tide appears to be turning. While I wasn't thrilled with the 2021 and 2022 drafts as a whole, I was thrilled with the Brady House and Elijah Green picks as first rounders. And while it remains to be seen how much use the organization gets out of the slew of new hires in the analytics and player development realms, the hiring spree represents a very positive sign in its own right.

That hiring spree might make it hard to peg just what kind of players the Nationals are looking to target in this draft, but in terms of that first pick, things get a little easier to prognosticate. There are only so many names in play at the very top no matter a team's drafting style, and they'll probably have their eye on the top half dozen or so prospects once the day rolls around. 

For now, though, we have a whole season to play and the names will not be the same in July, so we can have a little bit of fun with this list. Common knowledge would recognize that the Nationals are far deeper in young outfielders than they are in any other demographic, which would seemingly rule out names like Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Max Clark, and Walker Jenkins at the top, but there is a very important extra bit of context to bring home; you don't draft for need. If the best player available is an outfielder, it doesn't matter that the Nationals already have Elijah Green, James Wood, and Cristhian Vaquero, among others, in the system – you draft the outfielder anyways. That also means there is no need to jump at a pitcher with this pick despite the absolute dearth of arm talent in the system, unless they determine that a pitcher is the best remaining player. Again, it doesn't matter that the Nationals have a bunch of outfielders and no pitching. If they see an outfielder as the best player available, take him and not the pitcher. With that, here are ten possibilities for the second overall pick, ranging from right-now favorites to a few wild cards that may not be in play just yet at the top of the draft but could get there with a strong spring. Remember, 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was not in the first round conversation at all at this time a year ago.

Number in parentheses after school name denotes current rank on my draft board.

1. RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (#3)
At this point, all signs point to Chase Dollander as the favorite for the second overall pick. I just hammered home the point that you do not draft for need, but the truth is the Nationals really, really need pitching and Dollander may very well be the best player available on draft day. In fact, many scouts have called him the best college pitcher they've seen in years, right up there alongside names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and David Price. The Mike Rizzo we know and love would be beyond thrilled to get the Augusta, Georgia-area native into the system, so he's as good a name as any for Nationals fans to follow this spring. It's as complete a profile as you're going to find at the college level, setting up from a very athletic, projectable 6'3" frame. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has been creeping closer and closer to triple digits, adding explosive riding life from a release point that gets great extension. In a vacuum, it's one of the best fastballs in college baseball, but there is much more to the profile. Dollander also rips off a nasty slider with short, powerful sweeping action that is distinctly different from his downer curveball, while his changeup gives him a fourth average or better pitch. All of this comes from a clean, athletic delivery that helps him effectively locate his entire arsenal to both sides of the plate, ensuring every pitch is competitive and giving plenty of confidence his stuff will continue to play up in pro ball. He enters the spring as the near-consensus best pitcher in the country, and if he can stay healthy while repeating his exceptional 2022 (2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 108/13 K/BB) in the always tough SEC, it's hard to imagine Mike Rizzo passing up the chance at a future ace. Once drafted, he could move very quickly and give a much needed boost to a young Nationals pitching core currently led by Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Cole Henry, and a bit further down, Jarlin Susana.

2. OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State (#1)

Chase Dollander may be the frontrunner for the Nationals at pick number two, but Dylan Crews is probably the better prospect at this point and sits comfortably in the top spot on my draft board. If the Pirates don't take him first overall, I would hope Rizzo and co. would pull the trigger here unless his bonus demands are outrageous. He's the kind of bat that can transform a lineup, and throwing him into that outfield mix with Green, Wood, Vaquero, Robert Hassell, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Brenner Cox might give Washington the best group of young outfielders in baseball. Crews was considered a first round talent early in the 2020 draft cycle but an up and down summer leading up to his senior year of high school dropped him closer to second round consideration. He wound up at Louisiana State and has done nothing but hit since day one, slashing .356/.458/.677 with 40 home runs over 125 games while playing a very tough SEC schedule. The power potential here is simply different. He consistently produces some of the highest exit velocities in college baseball, punishing baseballs to all fields that never seem to come down. He can take you deep to in any direction on any day of the week, profiling for 30+ home runs annually at the big league level. Crews isn't just a slugger, though – he's a very patient hitter at the plate that takes professional at bats and consistently works counts into his favor. When he does get a pitch he can do damage on, he rarely misses it, and his career 16.8% strikeout rate is very impressive as an underclassman power hitter in the SEC. He may be a little bit power over hit at this point, but it's not by much. Additionally, he started all 62 games for LSU in center field last season, bringing above average speed and a plus arm that makes him a net positive out there as well. Teams love up the middle talent early in the draft, and at least for now, Crews fits that profile. However, with numerous prospects that could fit in center field long term, he would probably profile as a right fielder in the Nationals' system and could become at least an above average defender there. He would likely move quickly and could potentially beat every outfield name I mentioned earlier to the majors.

3. SS Jacob Gonzalez, Mississippi (#4)
Dylan Crews and Chase Dollander are the top two prospects in the draft for now, but Jacob Gonzalez is the top infielder in the country and could easily hit his way into this spot just by continuing the pace he's set over his first two seasons at Ole Miss (30 HR, .315/.424/.560). The Nationals are not developing talent well at all right now, and by drafting Gonzalez, they would get one of the most big league-ready players in the class that doesn't need much development. He has impeccable feel for the strike zone, walking four more times than he struck out as a true freshman before bumping that number to eighteen as a sophomore. He is completely comfortable with premium SEC pitching and should seamlessly transition to pro pitching, perhaps enough to start off with AA Harrisburg in 2024. Gonzalez also packs plenty of strength into his 6'2" frame and channels it very well in his left handed swing, showing easy plus raw power to the pull side. He's mostly a pull hitter to this point, but his pitch recognition skills enable him to be successful with that approach even when being pitched on the outer half. It might take some tweaking in pro ball as pitchers are able to better execute to the outside corners and change speeds more effectively, but I really don't imagine he'll have any trouble at all adjusting. Unlike Crews, Gonzalez would give the Nationals an infield bat to join a pretty thin group at that position group in the system. A shortstop for now, he probably fits better at third base going forward due to below average foot speed, but he's plenty athletic enough to stick there. Gonzalez' batting average and on-base percentage dropped from .355/.443 as a freshman to .273/.405 as a sophomore as pitchers stopped pitching to him, but if he adjusts back like he is capable of, he would make a lot of sense at #2.

4. OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [IN] (#2)
Could the Nationals make it three years in a row taking a prep bat? Prep bats are my favorite demographic, and the team made me very happy drafting Brady House and Elijah Green the past two seasons. If they go that route again in 2023, Max Clark is in my opinion the clear top prep player on the market with a tremendous combination of physical projection, present feel for the game, and work ethic. More so than any high school hitter in the country, I feel confident Clark is going to grow into his game naturally and become a true five tool player down the line. For now, he's hit over power with a line drive, gap to gap approach that has him hitting for high averages against elite prep pitching. He recognizes spin and can get the barrel to the ball all over the zone, utilizing a simple operation in the box rather than selling out for power and trying to do too much. That said, the power will come. He has a very well proportioned 6'1" frame with plenty of room to add strength, and he has been hitting the weight room hard to help build that strength. As he fills out physically, the power will come naturally without him having to change his approach at the plate, which should enable him to continue to hit for high averages while still putting up high home run totals. Beyond his bat, Clark is an elite defender in center field with plus-plus arm strength and plus-plus speed, making for the highest upside in the class. In some ways, he'd be a perfect complement to Green, who also shows that double plus speed and arm strength, with the right handed hitting Green a power-over-hit bat that is looking to even things out and the left handed hitting Clark a hit-over-power bat looking to tack on strength. If the draft were today, I would be thrilled with any of Crews, Dollander, or Clark in this spot no matter what the bonus demands were.

5. RHP/DH Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (#12)

As I've mentioned, the Nationals' system is almost completely barren of pitching talent and they could really use an impact arm to give the system a boost. At this point, I much prefer Chase Dollander (and Hurston Waldrep for that matter), but Paul Skenes has generated buzz near the top of the draft and does feel like a guy Mike Rizzo could target if he takes well to the SEC.  He dominated the very hitter-friendly Mountain West Conference while at Air Force to the tune of a 2.73 ERA and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings last year, and this year he joins LSU in hopes of proving his chops against the best hitters in the country. The stuff is trending up and up and up, and he looked even better this fall when he ran his fastball up to 99 and flashed plus with both his slider and his changeup. Big and durable at 6'6" and 235 pounds, he pounds the strike zone and creates difficult angle with his size. In the spring, he'll need to show that his improving stuff can miss bats in the SEC after running a more-good-than-great 27.0% strikeout rate at Air Force last year, when his fastball was a few ticks slower and his slider played closer to average. That version of Paul Skenes would probably fit closer to the back of the first round, but showing that mid 90's velocity and plus offspeed stuff over a full spring season would make him a top ten prospect. Of course, he comes with that service academy work ethic that only adds to the profile.

6. RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest (#13)
Rhett Lowder probably fits closer to the middle of the first round at this point and my ranking reflects that, but he's the kind of pitcher that could play his way to an under slot deal with the Nationals if he builds his stock a little this spring. Again, there isn't much pitching talent in the system right now, and Lowder's advanced all around game would be a welcome site if he takes another step forward this spring. He's up to 97 with his fastball and and shows above average with his slider and changeup, giving him a nearly big league ready arsenal as it is. Lowder also commands everything very well for his age and could report straight to AA Harrisburg to start 2024, with advanced feel for pitching that is hard to find at his age, especially among pitchers with his kind of stuff. At this point, he lacks a true swing and miss offering and profiles more as a safe bet #3 starter than a true top of the rotation stalwart, so there is work to be done. If he wants to go second overall, he'll need to miss more bats this year and improve on last year's 25.1% strikeout rate either by adding some life to his fastball or some snap to his slider. I certainly believe that is possible, and if he can do that, he's the kind of pitcher Mike Rizzo would love to add into the system on a below slot deal.

7. RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida (#7)
Hurston Waldrep is a very different pitcher, but he does find himself in a similar position to Paul Skenes transferring into the SEC. He comes from Southern Miss, where he struck out 140 batters in 90 innings for a sky high 37.3% strikeout rate. There are some very strong lineups in Conference USA, but the jump to the SEC will certainly be a test for Waldrep and therefore an opportunity for him to boost his stock even further. With an uptempo delivery and a skinny build at 6'2", he doesn't look on the surface like the low risk, steady starting pitcher that you'd think Rizzo would target at the top of the draft (Dollander, Skenes, and Lowder fit that description better), but he is a little reminiscent of other top ten picks like Carson Fulmer and Jack Leiter. Everything with Waldrep is explosive. The fastball is easily in the mid 90's and approaches triple digits with big time riding action, while the rest of his arsenal is equally impressive. He shows a hard slider, a power curve, and a rapidly improving splitter that all flash at least above average if not plus, so it's hard not to see him continuing to miss SEC bats in bunches like he did in the C-USA. With average command, the SEC will be a test as more advanced hitters will make it a little tougher for him to control the strike zone. He walked 8.8% of his opponents last year, which isn't a huge number but is still the highest on this list above Dollander (4.2%), Lowder (6.2%), and Skenes (8.5%). If he can continue to elicit chases and avoid walks with Florida while maintaining his stuff and health, Rizzo may be interested in his services on a below-slot deal, especially if Dollander, Lowder, and Skenes don't seize their opportunity.

8. 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian (#9)

The last time the Nationals drafted, developed, and reaped the benefits from an impact player was 2011, when they took Anthony Rendon with the sixth overall pick out of Rice. Twelve years later, they may have an opportunity to make a similar pick from the Lone Star State in TCU's Brayden Taylor, though Taylor has the added benefit of batting left handed. While there's no matching the otherworldly numbers Rendon put up for the Owls from 2009-2011 (52 HR, .373/.505/.680 in 187 games), Taylor has been a one man wrecking crew in his own right for two years now (25 HR, .319/.450/.574 in 117 games) and still won't turn 21 until May. He fits what the Nationals like as an advanced, all-around bat that can do a little bit of everything. Taylor takes extremely professional at bats, as evidenced by drawing more walks than strikeouts in both his underclass seasons. He controls the strike zone, rarely chasing but consistently doing damage on the pitches he does choose to attack, helping him produce elite on-base percentages of .445 and .454 the last two seasons. He's definitely hit over power at this point, but he does show average power overall and can take you deep to the pull side when he turns on one. At this point, I don't think he's in play at the second overall pick, but he's not far off and his to do list is pretty simple. Fairly slender at 6'1", tacking on some strength and tapping more all-fields power in 2023 would certainly move him closer to the conversation, and given his youth and athleticism I could definitely see that happening. Taylor has also played almost exclusively third base during his time at TCU, but with Tommy Sacco gone to the Astros, he could get some looks at shortstop this year. He has shown well at the hot corner to this point and if he also takes well to shortstop, that would be another feather in his cap. Show both the added power and the aptitude at shortstop, and you have a strong candidate to go second overall to the Nationals.

9. 3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell HS [FL] (#16)
Usually, teams prefer up the middle talent at the top of the draft. Aidan Miller, the younger brother of Reds prospect Jackson Miller, may not quite fit that description, but if he can prove what he needs to prove in 2023, he could work his way as high as the Nationals' pick at #2. It's some of the best power in the prep class, coming naturally from a big league body at 6'2" that enables him to tap it consistently without selling out. Miller also takes big league at bats, with a disciplined approach that helps him stay in the zone and attack pitches he can do damage on, though like many power hitters, he can be prone to chasing fastballs up. There are some moving parts in the swing which hamper his pure hit tool, representing an opportunity where he can improve and potentially push his draft position up, which presently stands closer to the middle of the first round. Given that he'll already be 19 well before the draft, the Nationals will want to see that polished up a bit before rolling the dice at pick #2. More pressing, though, especially at the top of the draft, is his future position. A plus arm gives him a chance to stick at third base, but he's not a quick twitch guy and can't afford to slow down much more. If he can come out and continue to show good range at the hot corner this spring and help Rizzo and co. feel comfortable that he can avoid a move to first base, it would make them much more likely to pull the trigger this early in the draft, especially if his hit tool ticks up a little in addition. He wouldn't be the first player from J.W. Mitchell High School in the Tampa suburbs to star for the Nationals, as the school was also one of the many stops Tyler Clippard made as he bounced around from high school to high school as an amateur.

10. SS Roch Cholowsky, Hamilton HS [AZ] (#20)
We'll round it out with a wild card pick. In ranking Cholowsky 20th on my board, I'm actually significantly higher on him than Baseball America (#28), Prospects Live (#33), and MLB Pipeline (#35), and he still has a ways to go to get to #2. Still, eventual 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was ranked outside the top 50 on many lists at this point a year ago, and I think Cholowsky has a chance to be that guy in 2023. The Phoenix-area product is a fantastic athlete that actually has a chance to play quarterback at UCLA in addition to baseball, and it's that physical upside that makes me think he could make the jump. He moves effortlessly on the diamond, showing above average range and arm strength that makes the shortstop position look easy, so he already has that up the middle defensive projection that teams prefer at the top of the draft. Of course, you're not drafting anything less than a future top/middle of the order bat at pick #2, and Cholowsky does have some work to do to get there. The good news is the foundation is there, so if he comes out in 2023 a little stronger and a little more polished, he could fly up boards. He already shows very natural bat to ball skills and for the most part combines that with good swing decisions, making for a potential above average hit tool in the future. His swing is also very fluid and with the physical upside I mentioned, any strength gains could get him to at least average power if not better, especially as he learns to make better use of his legs. So there are two things that need to happen for Cholowsky to make the leap: more polish, and more physicality. I think the physicality is more or less a given and could easily show up this spring, while the polish may come a little later given his two-sport nature but is also pretty strong as it is. I really like this kid and I would be thrilled to see him swing his way up to #2.

Other Top Ranked Candidates

OF Wyatt Lanford, Florida (#5)

OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] (#8)
SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonnor HS [PA] (#10)

OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt (#11)

SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon (#14)

Other Dark Horse Candidates

OF Travis Honeyman, Boston College (#6)

OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech (#18)
SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest HS [FL] (#21)
LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy [MA] (#22)
LHP Grayson Hitt, Alabama (#37)

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at low and mid-majors (west)

2022 draftees: 83. Top school: UC Santa Barbara (6)
2022 preseason writeup (published 11/23/2021)

Top draftees:
1-8, Twins: SS Brooks Lee (Cal Poly)
1-10, Rockies: RHP Gabriel Hughes (Gonzaga)
2-59, Cardinals: LHP Brycen Mautz (San Diego)
2-61, Yankees: RHP Drew Thorpe (Cal Poly)
3-96, Braves: C Drake Baldwin (Missouri State)
3-98, Blue Jays: OF Alan Roden (Creighton)
3-100, Yankees: RHP Trystan Vrieling (Gonzaga)

Moving west of the Mississippi River, our western mid majors couldn't quite match the eastern mid majors' total of 95 draftees last year, but UC Santa Barbara did lead all mid major schools with six draftees and Cal Poly's Brooks Lee and Gonzaga's Gabriel Hughes marked the two highest drafted mid major players last year. Just like back east, even though we're focusing outside the traditional Power Five conferences, there are still some college baseball juggernauts in the smaller conferences like Dallas Baptist, Gonzaga, and UC Santa Barbara, and looking back a little more historically, schools like Rice, Long Beach State, Cal State Fullerton, and San Diego State have had plenty of success.

Similar to the east, the new age of the transfer portal did put a dent in this class. Two-way player Paul Skenes transferred from Air Force to LSU while righty Juaron Watts-Brown transferred from Long Beach State to Oklahoma State, and they would have both been top-three prospects on this list. Luke Keaschall transferred from San Francisco to Arizona State, and he would have also been represented here. So as with the east, while it's not nearly a blanket statement, you are more likely to see late bloomers in these conferences.

This year's iteration includes Jacob Wilson, who for now is the top mid major prospect on either side of the river, headlining a class heavy on hit-over-power types. While you'll only find one player with a plus power grade on this list, and that's arguable, five of the six hitters in the top ten prospects registered a strikeout rate below 15% last year and five of six also batted above .340. The four pitchers on the list, meanwhile, all come with very different profiles. And finally, you'll notice that the top four (and six of the top eight) players drafted from these schools a year ago came from Cal Poly, Gonzaga, or San Diego, and all three of those schools are represented on this top ten list once again for 2023.

1. SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 175 lbs. Born 3/30/2002. Hometown: Thousand Oaks, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .358/.418/.585, 0 SB, 7/25 K/BB in 59 games.
Jack Wilson spent over a decade in the majors, mostly with the Pirates, then went on to coach at Thousand Oaks High School in Southern California. He coached some incredible infield talent there, including the younger Max Muncy now of the A's, Roc Riggio now of Oklahoma State, and his son, Jacob Wilson, the best prospect at any mid major school in the country right now. The elder Wilson actually followed his son to Grand Canyon, where he recently signed on to be an assistant coach. Jacob, meanwhile is well established in Phoenix. He is coming off an impressive sophomore season in which he struck out just seven times in 59 games, followed by a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.278/.381/.389) and with the Collegiate National Team (.362/.462/.455). Wilson, of course, stands out for his pure hitting ability, with elite plate discipline that ranks among the best in the country. Very jittery at the plate and on the field, he twitches his bat and taps his feet in the box while awaiting the pitch, but quiets everything down for consistent execution. He's so advanced in the box that it almost looks like he's seeing pitches in slow motion, laying off the ones he doesn't like and rarely missing the ones he does. This is true against fastballs, breaking balls, you name it, and his .381 on-base percentage and 11.9% strikeout rate in a small Cape sample show that it's not just a product of a smaller conference. At this point, he's very skinny and shows below average power, but he can turn on the ball and send it out to the pull side. Despite standing 6'3", that skinny frame does limit his projection a little bit and he'll likely never have better than average power, but his elite ability to recognize pitches, and therefore mistakes, will help him continue to show that ambush power all the way up the ladder. The ultimate projection here is a .300+ hitter with on-base percentages nearing .400, with perhaps 10-15 home runs per year at peak. Defensively, he's very light on his feet at shortstop with strong feel for the position and enough arm strength to make it work, giving him a chance to stick at the premium position with a little luck. Ultimately, there is a good chance a defender with more range pushes him off the position, in which case he could profile very well at second or third base. For now, this is an easy first round profile with a chance to go in the top ten picks if teams believe in his defense and/or his ability to grow into some power.

2. UT Cole Carrigg, San Diego State.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 5/8/2002. Hometown: Turlock, CA.
2022: 3 HR, .388/.426/.509, 19 SB, 28/12 K/BB in 54 games.
Jacob Wilson played with A's 2021 first round pick Max Muncy at Thousand Oaks High School in the Los Angeles suburbs, while Cole Carrigg was teammates with A's 2020 first round pick Tyler Soderstrom at Turlock High School in the Central Valley. I mentioned that this list contains five hitters that batted over .340 last year, and of those, Carrigg's .388 mark was the best. Not only that, but he kept making consistent, quality contact in the Cape Cod League over the summer where he slashed .325/.388/.411 over a large, 46 game sample. He gets to balls all over the zone with a simple, line drive-oriented approach, keeping his eyes behind the ball and shooting it back where it came from. With excellent feel for the barrel, that leads to consistent execution and plenty of hard hit balls around the field. Similar to Wilson, he's 6'3" but he's very skinny, with perhaps even less physical projection than Wilson. The power is safely below average for now and likely always will be, with the potential for fringe-average power if he tacks on additional muscle. Either way, it's not a power-conscious approach, and he'll likely settle in around ten home runs a year at his peak. Defensively, Carrigg is a true utility man. He played seven different positions in the Cape Cod League alone, appearing everywhere except the bottom two on the defensive spectrum – first base and left field. Yes, he even threw 5.2 innings on the mound, striking out seven while allowing just two baserunners against elite hitters. That's much better than his one appearance at San Diego State this year, where Iowa got him for six runs in the only inning he threw. A very good athlete, Carrigg shows the above average speed and plus arm to profile anywhere on the diamond, whether that means shortstop, center field, or even catcher. For now, his actions around the dirt aren't quite fluid enough to warrant a long term future at shortstop, but specializing in infield defense and dropping the outfield/mound/catcher's mitt could help him get there if his development system commits to it. Behind the plate, the arm strength and athleticism will buy him time for his finer glovework to catch up, and it's a real possibility. Carrigg has four tools that are comfortably above average or better, and being on the younger side for the class helps his profile as well. It's a very interesting one that could develop in any number of directions.

3. 3B Mike Boeve, Omaha.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'3", 200 lbs. Born 5/5/2002. Hometown: Hastings, NE.
2022: 8 HR, .364/.491/.584, 12 SB, 29/39 K/BB in 57 games.
Three names, three hit-over-power profiles in a row. Similar to Jacob Wilson, Mike Boeve's profile is carried by elite plate discipline that saw him walk 14.6% of the time last year while striking out just 10.9% of the time – leading to nearly a .500 on-base percentage. That strong approach carried over to the Cape Cod League, where he slashed .278/.403/.339 over 41 games. He has a similar approach to hitting as Cole Carrigg, never trying to do too much at the plate and instead happily barreling the ball to all fields with a simple left handed swing. Like Wilson and Carrigg, we're talking below average power from another 6'3" frame for Boeve, but there is reason to believe he may grow into some. For now, his approach can get slappy at times and he tends to leak his power over his front foot while he's focused on simply meeting the baseball with the barrel, but when he turns on the ball while maintaining his leverage, he can get into some sneaky power. That power didn't show up on the Cape, where he had just seven extra base hits (all doubles) in 41 games for a paltry .061 ISO, but I do think he has a chance to tap more in pro ball. He's not quite the defender that Wilson or Carrigg are, with an arm that may be stretched at third base and range that might be stretched at second base, so the bat will have to carry the profile. He does have a shot to be a bat-first infielder that can hit 10-15, perhaps even 15-20, home runs per season with high on-base percentages.

4. 3B Kevin Sim, San Diego.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 2/7/2002. Hometown: San Diego, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .292/.387/.527, 8 SB, 39/35 K/BB in 57 games.
On a list full of contact-first bats, Kevin Sim has the best raw power of the group even if his twelve home runs a year ago won't blow you away. In addition to his strong season at San Diego, he hit five more home runs on the Cape over the summer while slashing .239/.349/.424 over 27 games. Sim packs plenty of strength into his 6'2" frame, unleashing a powerful, leveraged right handed swing that helps him produce some high exit velocities. Combine that with a very strong approach at the plate (an ongoing theme on this list), and he's consistently putting himself in position to do damage. Unlike his peers on this list, his pure bat to ball skills do lag behind a bit, and while his disciplined approach helped him run a strong 14.5% strikeout rate at San Diego last year, it ballooned to 27.5% on the Cape against more advanced pitching. With some moving parts in his swing, it remains to be seen whether he can catch up to higher level stuff consistently once in pro ball. Still, it's a well-rounded offensive profile that could produce 20-25 or more home runs per season along with potentially high on-base percentages if he can keep his strikeout rate down. Over at third base, he shows the arm strength and natural feel for the position necessary to profile there, but he's not a quick twitch athlete and his range may force him to first base in the long run. There, the emphasis will be even more on his ability to make consistent contact, though he will likely always run high walk rates.

5. RHP Levi Wells, Texas State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 215 lbs. Born 9/21/2001. Hometown: La Porte, TX.
2022: 8-3, 3.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 86/32 K/BB in 91 innings.
Levi Wells was a highly regarded recruit out of the Houston area, starting his college career at Texas Tech but struggling mightily with his command. He transferred to Texas State as a sophomore, where he found his footing in a big way and held down the Saturday starter role all season long as he cut his walk rate all the way from 25% down to 8.2%. That was followed up by a solid run through the Cape Cod League, here he posted a 3.70 ERA and a 29/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings as a reliever. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a potentially plus curveball with power and depth as well as a less used cutter and changeup. Despite the loud stuff, though, he didn't miss as many bats as you'd like and ran just a 22.2% strikeout rate at Texas State, though that number spiked to 38.2% in short stints on the Cape. His fastball is fairly straight, playing a bit below its above average velocity, and he does need to get a little more consistent with his curveball. Beyond that, it would behoove him to take a step forward with either the cutter or the changeup to give him a third weapon, as well as continuing to refine his command. The control was ahead of the command in 2022 and that was evident against more experienced bats on the Cape, where his walk rate jumped up to 15.8%. There are numerous small holes in the profile, but nothing is back breaking and they also provide numerous opportunities for him to step forward in his development. He doesn't need to patch all of them, but even incremental progress on things like his fastball movement and his changeup could turn him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. Watch for improvement in any number of small areas in 2023.

6. RHP Kade Morris, Nevada.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 170 lbs. Born 6/21/2002. Hometown: Turlock, CA.
2022: 7-4, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 45/18 K/BB in 57 innings.
A cross-town rival of Cole Carrigg's during high school in Turlock, California, Kade Morris wound up at Nevada and transferred to TCU when Nevada head coach T.J. Bruce took an assistant coaching position there. However, before he could make it to Fort Worth, Morris took a metaphorical U turn and he'll remain in Reno for his draft year. He posted nice numbers a year ago as a swingman pitching in some very offense-friendly environments, then took a step forward with three strong starts in the Cape Cod League over the summer (1.08 ERA, 9/6 K/BB in 16.2 IP). He sits in the low 90's with his fastball as a starter, running it up to 97 in short stints while adding a full arsenal of secondaries. His sweeping, two plane slider is his best secondary right now, while he also shows a more vertical curveball to steal strikes and keeps a changeup in his back pocket. For now, though, he mostly works off that fastball/slider combination. The 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound, working from a low three quarters slot with an easy delivery, and he's likely to add more velocity as he fills out his projectable frame. Morris also pounds the strike zone and rarely hurts himself with walks, running a very solid 7.6% walk rate at Nevada a year ago and 9.4% on the Cape. But to this point, the flaw in his profile is that he doesn't miss as many bats in the zone as he needs to. The fastball has some modest life but it's nothing special, while the slider alone is not quite potent enough to rack up high numbers of whiffs on its own. If he wants to convince teams he's a starter at the next level, he'll want to significantly bump up the 18.9% strikeout rate he ran at Nevada last year that dropped to 14.1% on the Cape. Still, with his projection, youth, athleticism, arm strength, and deep arsenal, there is plenty to like going forward and he would probably sneak into the top one hundred picks if the draft were today.

7. 2B Charles McAdoo, San Jose State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 3/6/2002. Hometown: Antioch, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .345/.406/.629, 6 SB, 33/19 K/BB in 56 games.
Charles McAdoo didn't play much as a freshman, but he got into the everyday lineup as a sophomore and posted some of the best numbers in the Mountain West. Moving on to the Northwoods League over the summer, he continued to mash to the tune of a .305/.363/.575 line and ten home runs in 43 games. Very aggressive in the box, he doesn't like to waste time in his at bats and will jump on the first pitch he likes, leading to just a 7.3% walk rate at San Jose State and 8.9% in the Northwoods League. Meanwhile, his very strong feel for the barrel means that he was still very effective at keeping his strikeout rates down, rarely missing that pitch he decided to jump on with lots of hard contact around the field. Packing a ton of strength into his 6'2" frame, he works with a compact operation in the box and a leveraged swing that helps him produce above average raw power. His approach is geared towards smoking line drives to all fields, but he's certainly not afraid to turn on the ball and send it deep into the left field seats. Going forward into pro ball, it will be important to keep an eye on that aggressive approach, as his strikeout rate rose from 12.6% at San Jose State to 21.1% in the Northwoods League. Pro pitchers will take advantage of that propensity to chase, so his ability to make adjustments could make or break his profile. It's a profile reliant on the bat, as he's a fringy defender that should be adequate at second base.

8. RHP Owen Wild, Gonzaga.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 230 lbs. Born 7/30/2002. Hometown: Gig Harbor, WA.
2022: 9-1, 3.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 83/24 K/BB in 74.1 innings.
Last year, Gonzaga had a trio of pitchers go in the top three rounds in first rounder Gabriel Hughes (Rockies) and third rounders Trystan Vrieling (Yankees) and William Kempner (Giants). They're not done yet, as Owen Wild looks ready to take that next step and become the next Bulldog ace. Wild made just two appearances as a freshman, but was very effective in a swingman role as a sophomore and continued to impress in the Alaska Summer League, where he posted a 1.82 ERA and a 43/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings. Wild's fastball has ticked up into the low 90's now, reaching the mid 90's at best with flat plane and some ride. He has a slurvy breaking ball that shows well when he keeps it down, and added power could make it an above average or better pitch. Wild also shows an above average changeup with great fade, though he does need to be more consistent with his arm speed when he throws it. The 6'2" righty is physically developed and works from a drop and drive delivery, helping him work from a low center of gravity that makes his pitches play up. He's also very young for the class, not turning 21 until after the draft, which gives him plenty of time to hone his arsenal. All three pitches have the potential to become above average or better, and he shows above average command to boot. I like this one and I think he has a very good shot to become a mid-rotation starter.

9. RHP Bryce Warrecker, Cal Poly.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'8", 240 lbs. Born 9/13/2001. Hometown: Santa Barbara, CA.
2022: 2-0, 5.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 30/5 K/BB in 26.1 innings.
Bryce Warrecker hasn't done much in two years at Cal Poly, holding a 5.61 career ERA and a .298 opponents' batting average over fewer than sixty innings, but few players did as much to elevate their profile in the Cape Cod League as Warrecker did. Over eleven games (seven starts), he put up a 2.03 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 36/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 40 innings, enough to be named the Cape Cod League Outstanding Pitcher. A towering presence at 6'8", he comes from a low three quarters slot that gives hitters a unique look and lays the foundation for a profile that works off of deception. He doesn't work with much velocity, sitting in the low 90's and rarely popping above that range, and brings a couple of quality secondaries. His slider varies between a sweeper and more of a downer pitch depending on what he needs, while his changeup looks above average with late drop. He allowed a lot of loud contact at Cal Poly and ran a modest 22.6% strikeout rate on the Cape even as he kept runs and baserunners off the board, so he'll likely have a low margin for error in pro ball. The good news is that he also pounds the strike zone with above average command, making for a very solid back-end starter profile. There is a lot to like here even if the upside is a bit limited.

10. SS John Peck, Pepperdine.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 165 lbs. Born 7/18/2002. Hometown: Moorpark, CA.
2022: 7 HR, .361/.417/.578, 7 SB, 38/14 K/BB in 40 games.
John Peck is sure to be a polarizing prospect in this class, with a lot of underlying strengths and weaknesses. He raked at Pepperdine this past spring, slashing .361/.417/.578 sandwiched around an April injury that kept him out for close to a month. He moved on to the Cape over the summer, where he struggled immensely to the tune of a .182/.248/.245 slash line and a 31.8% strikeout rate over 45 games including just two hits in his final ten games. Peck has worked to get stronger and, when he's going right, unleashes a barrage of line drives to all fields that helped him hit .361 at Pepperdine last year. He can really smoke the ball, with strong batted ball data that could point to plus power in the tank if he learns how to tap it. For now, he doesn't turn on the ball often enough to do so and with a strikeout rate above 20% at Pepperdine and above 30% on the Cape, he'll also have to improve his pitch selection in tandem with a more power-conscious approach should he choose to pursue it. Defensively, he's very smooth with the glove around the infield and has a better chance to stick at shortstop than anyone else on this list. It's a very interesting profile that could really thrive in the right development system, but there's some boom/bust there as well. Like Owen Wild, he's very young for the class and won't turn 21 until after the draft.

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at low and mid-majors (east)

2022 draftees: 95. Top school: Southern Miss (5).
2022 preseason writeup (published 11/1/2021)

Top draftees:
1-13, Angels: SS Zach Neto (Campbell)
1-16, Guardians: OF Chase DeLauter (James Madison)
1-27, Brewers: SS Eric Brown (Coastal Carolina)
1-30, Giants: LHP Reggie Crawford (Connecticut)
CBA-36, Pirates: RHP Thomas Harrington (Campbell)
2-58, Mariners: 3B Tyler Locklear (Virginia Commonwealth)
2-66, Giants: LHP Carson Whisenhunt (East Carolina)

This article will focus on the Division I programs outside of the traditional Power Five conferences east of the Mississippi River, but programs like ECU, Central Michigan, Coastal Carolina, Campbell, and Southern Miss, among many others, ensure that we're still talking about a very high level of play perhaps even higher than the Big Ten in some conferences. Southern Miss, for its part, led the programs in this category with five draftees a year ago, more than any team in the Big Ten, and returns another big name on this list in Tanner Hall even with likely first round pick Hurston Waldrep transferring to Florida.

The name Hurston Waldrep actually brings out an interesting factor. Now in the transfer era, it's only natural that the best players at smaller programs want to transfer to larger programs, and if there's a spot open, why shouldn't they? What that means for this list, though, is that there was a small exodus of talent to other lists – Waldrep from Southern Miss to Florida and Colton Ledbetter from Samford to Auburn as far as my previous lists go, plus Carter Trice from Old Dominion to NC State that just missed the ACC list. So that's at least three players that would have made this list that are instead trying their hands in the SEC and ACC. But that doesn't mean it's slim pickings around the Sun Belt, American, Big South, and elsewhere. No one school put multiple names on this list, but Southern Miss would have if they held on to Waldrep. A year ago, five different players from eastern mid major programs went in the first 36 picks – we'll have to see who emerges to make that happen again this year, but that's usually the case with the smaller schools. There are a lot of late bloomers here.

One more interesting theme: In an era where players often travel across the country to play college ball, nine of the ten players on this list stayed in their home state for college ball, and the only one to cross state lines, Tanner Hall of Southern Miss, still stayed within three hours of his hometown in Louisiana. Additionally, in an era where from personal experience I feel like I have seen many players who were on the older side for the class, each of the top nine players on this list will still be 20 years old at the end of January. And with four players who will still be 20 at the start of May, youth is certainly a theme.

1. RHP Cade Kuehler, Campbell.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 5/24/2002. Hometown: Waxhaw, NC.
2022: 4-6, 4.07 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 111/38 K/BB in 84 innings.
Last year, Zach Neto was the first mid major player drafted from the eastern half of the country, and Campbell enters the 2023 season with the favorite to do it again in Cade Kuehler. He hasn't posted loud numbers yet for the Fighting Camels, but the stuff is certainly loud and he has a chance to take a big step forward this spring. His fastball sits comfortably in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96-97 with ease during his starts, but he has hit as high as 99 in shorter stints. Beyond the plus velocity, he gets explosive riding life on the pitch despite an unremarkable release point, so it can really perform when it's commanded. The fastball steals the show for now, but Kuehler also brings in a full arsenal of secondaries working in a short, hard slider, a bigger curveball, and a changeup. The slider is probably his best secondary for now, but the deep arsenal is strong throughout and he can consistently steal strikes with any of them. Further helping his profile is his delivery, in which he turns back towards second base and shows his back to the hitter before unfurling and firing towards the plate. For now, it does impact his command and that is likely the culprit for his unremarkable numbers (though you do love to see the 31.2% strikeout rate), but he's young for a college junior with a May birthday and has plenty of time to figure things out. If he can better keep his delivery in sync through that long trunk rotation, it's an easy first round profile given the stuff. Ironing out that command will also help stave off reliever questions, which aren't present yet but may arise due to his shorter stature and exaggerated delivery.

2. 1B Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'3", 195 lbs. Born 2/14/2002. Hometown: Boynton Beach, FL.
2022: 16 HR, .369/.477/.658, 11 SB, 22/39 K/BB in 58 games.
Unlike Cade Kuehler, Nolan Schanuel's numbers do indeed pop off the page. He's been an absolute force since arriving in Boca Raton just up the road from his hometown of Boynton Beach, slashing .357/.462/.619 with 27 home runs and more than twice as many walks and HBP's (89) as strikeouts (43) over his two seasons. Unfortunately those numbers did not carry over to the Cape Cod League, where he went up against better pitching with wood bats and slashed just .211/.356/.324 in 41 games. Schanuel has an elite approach at the plate with strong feel for the barrel, and even as he struggled to make an impact on the Cape, he still walked more (15.8%) than he struck out (15.3%), a very impressive feat in that league. Maintaining that elite ability to control the zone even when jumping from Conference USA to the Cape speaks volumes to the hit tool, and it should make evaluators very comfortable that he will be completely unfazed by higher level pitching in pro ball. And with FAU, you couldn't ask for better production. He holds his hands high in his stance, dropping them down in his load before throwing them through the zone with a loose, accurate barrel. He has worked to get stronger and he jumped from 23 extra base hits as a freshman to 33 as a sophomore, though he had just nine on the Cape and his ability to tap more than average power is a big question given his defensive limitations. He has played mostly first base at FAU, though he has experience in the outfield corners and he has enough speed to make it work out there if he doesn't slow down with age. Hit over power first base profiles aren't all that common, though this draft has three famous names on the college side in Schanuel, LSU's Tre' Morgan, and Oregon State's Garret Forrester that fit that profile. If he can bulk up a little more with that 6'3" frame, he does have the swing and feel for the barrel to tap 20+ home run power at his ceiling. For now, he profiles for high on-base percentages and 15-20 home runs a year as a median projection.

3. RHP Tanner Hall, Southern Miss.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 185 lbs. Born 3/18/2002. Hometown: Zachary, LA.
2022: 9-3, 2.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 146/14 K/BB in 109 innings.
A year ago, Tanner Hall and Hurston Waldrep formed the best 1-2 punch of underclass pitchers in the country. Waldrep transferred to Florida, and while he is the better prospect of the two, Hall actually outpitched him last year. His 146 strikeouts were fourth in the country last year (Waldrep's 140 were eighth), and if you take the top 35 on the NCAA Division I strikeout leaderboard, he and Astros fourth round pick Trey Dombroski (120 strikeouts) tied for the fewest walks at 14. Hall has a solid three pitch mix, starting with a fastball around 90 with run and sink that helps it play above its average velocity. His slider is an above average pitch with sweeping action across the plate, while his changeup is above average in its own right with drop. Everything plays way up, of course, because of his plus command that helps him pick hitters apart while executing on that three pitch mix. He also hides the ball well, which combined with his command and the movement he gets on his pitches from a low three quarters arm slot, makes for an extremely tough at bat for hitters. It's the kind of profile the Guardians could turn into a big league ace, and if he adds a tick or two of velocity to get more comfortably into the low 90's, we have a very intriguing top two rounds prospect. Until he adds that velocity, he may fit better towards the back of the second/early third round range. He'll be one to watch closely now that he'll own the spotlight on the mound in Hattiesburg.

4. C Michael Carico, Davidson.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 9/4/2002. Hometown: Kernersville, NC.
2022: 21 HR, .406/.559/.843, 3 SB, 35/46 K/BB in 54 games.
I mentioned that Nolan Schanuel has posted incredible numbers at FAU, but Michael Carico's numbers at Davidson make Schanuel's look like child's play. Lightly recruited out of high school, he didn't make much of an impact as a freshman but exploded as a sophomore for one of the craziest stat lines in the country. His .559 on-base percentage led all of Division I, while his .843 slugging percentage was third and his .406 batting average finished eighth. In terms of production, it doesn't get any better than that. Like Schanuel, he brings elite plate discipline and rarely chases, allowing him to consistently find good pitches to hit. When Carico does get his pitch, he never misses it, punishing those mistakes at an elite level. His elite feel for the barrel from a controlled, leveraged left handed swing helps him tap above average power in games, setting the Davidson home run record this past spring. If there is one hole in his offensive game, it's that he's not quite proven against higher level pitching. Just eleven of his 54 games came against teams that made the NCAA Tournament, none of which placed better than a #3 seed, though to be fair he did hit .413/.500/.826 with five home runs and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio over those elven games. But ultimately, it was a very weak schedule if four games against VCU represents far and away your toughest test. He did go on to play in the Northwoods League over the summer, which isn't quite the Cape Cod League but still features strong competition, and he hit .263/.482/.447 over 24 games there. Ultimately, I believe his elite discipline at the plate will help him make that jump from the Atlantic 10 Conference to pro ball, but it is a jump, more so than Schanuel's jump from the C-USA. Defensively, the Piedmont Triad native is more athletic than most catchers and has a very good chance to stick back there, which would buy even more time for his bat to transition up. Lastly, Carico is also very young for the class, not turning 21 for more than a month after the draft and checking in younger than a few members of the 2024 college draft class.

5. OF Drew Brutcher, South Florida.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'5", 205 lbs. Born 2/12/2002. Hometown: Lakeland, FL.
2022: 13 HR, .299/.447/.610, 1 SB, 60/37 K/BB in 43 games.
Drew Brutcher brings with him shades of Aaron Judge and Spencer Jones, but he's left handed. A career .297/.436/.582 hitter with 21 home runs in 75 games over two seasons in Tampa, he has been one of the better hitters in the AAC despite missing time in both seasons with injuries. He carried that success over to the Cape Cod League as well, where he slashed .270/.355/.409 with three home runs in 40 games. Brutcher is immensely talented, standing 6'5" with as much physical upside as any player in the class. The ball really jumps off his bat, coming in with a loose, leveraged left handed swing that helps him get to balls all over the zone and exert plus power. He also brings a very patient approach at the plate, helping him run an 18.6% walk rate at USF last year and 9.7% on the Cape, but his pure bat to ball and pitch recognition skills aren't quite there yet even with the adjustability in his swing. That's led to very elevated strikeout rates, including 30.2% at USF last year and 29.7% on the Cape, both well above where he needs to be. The good news is that between his power, adjustable swing, and patience at the plate, he already has most of the building blocks he needs to become an impact hitter. Taller hitters sometimes take longer to cut down on the swing and miss, and 2023 will be about recognizing pitches better in order to put it all together. The elevated strikeout rates have clearly not hurt his production yet. Defensively, he's a solid runner with a good arm that can play all over the outfield, though he may end up being pushed off center field as he slows down with age. It's an interesting sleeper profile that could break out into one for the top two rounds if he puts it together.

6. RHP Jay Driver, Harvard.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 195 lbs. Born 2/25/2002. Hometown: Wellesley, MA.
2022: 1-1, 1.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 45/13 K/BB in 28.1 innings.
Jay Driver comes to us with very limited track record, as the Ivy League's absurd COVID policies robbed him of his freshman season and he made just fifteen relief appearances as a sophomore. However, he opened a lot of eyes in those 28.1 innings and further made a name for himself on the Cape last summer, where he posted a 4.85 ERA but ran a very strong 48/10 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.2 innings, some even as a starter. That has him in position to become the Ivy League's first top five round pick since Yale's Rohan Handa went to the Giants in 2021, their first top four round pick since Cornell's Brent Jones went to the Diamondbacks in 2014, or even the first top three round pick since Princeton's David Hale went to the Braves way back in 2009. Driver sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 97 in short stints, getting plenty of sink and run on the pitch from a sidearm slot. His sweeping slider flashes plus and can make hitters look foolish, helping him run up a 39.5% strikeout rate at Harvard and a 38.1% rate on the Cape, while his fading changeup gives him a third weapon. It's a really strong three pitch mix from an unusual arm angle that misses bats in bunches, and while his command is probably fringy for now, the stuff has still been enough to overwhelm Ivy League hitters and keep Cape Cod League hitters at bay. The 6'3" righty has a projectable, athletic frame and did see four starts on the Cape after pitching exclusively in relief for Harvard, but he hasn't been stretched out in that role consistently yet and it's unknown how the stuff and command will hold up over longer stretches. It's probably a bullpen profile, but it's one of my favorites in the class and one to keep a close eye on this spring.

7. RHP Trey Gibson, Liberty.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 230 lbs. Born 5/18/2002. Hometown: Yorktown, VA.
2022: 3-5, 6.75 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 72/30 K/BB in 56 innings.
Trey Gibson established himself as one of the best young pitchers in the A-Sun as a freshman, when he put up a 3.32 ERA and a 70/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings, but he took a step backward as a sophomore when his walk rate jumped from 7.9% to 11.2% and his ERA more than doubled. Still, the size, arm strength, and deep arsenal have plenty of scouts interested. Gibson sits in the low 90's with his fastball with the ability to reach back for a little more, though it's a fairly generic pitch movement-wise. He stands out for a big, deep curveball that misses a lot of bats, adding in a sweepier slider and a solid changeup to make for a quality four pitch mix. That, combined with the big, physical, 6'5" frame, has many scouts believing in his upside as a #4 starter in the big leagues. To get there, though, he'll have to improve his strike throwing, as his longer arm action leaves him with inconsistent command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff. He has quality stuff, especially the curveball, but it's not quite explosive enough to make up for being left over the plate or falling behind in the count, leading to that 6.75 ERA a year ago. He is young, only turning 21 a couple months before the draft, and that does help his case when it comes to putting everything together, but it still needs to happen. He figures to go somewhere in the middle of day two right now.

8. OF Jake Cunningham, Charlotte.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 205 lbs. Born 7/3/2002. Hometown: Charlotte, NC.
2022: 16 HR, .304/.410/.595, 16 SB, 69/38 K/BB in 57 games.
Jake Cunningham brings some similarities to Drew Brutcher a couple spots above him on this list. Besides playing for a green and gold team in or coming to the AAC, he's a lanky, toolsy outfielder with hit tool questions coming off a big season. Cunningham didn't hit much as a freshman, but broke out for a huge sophomore season that earned him a spot in the Cape Cod League over the summer. He struggled there in a brief, seven game sample (.174/.269/.217), but he is firmly on area scouts' radars now. The Charlotte native takes big hacks from the right side, helping him generate above average power that he taps in games and which may become plus as he fills out. Cunningham shows strong pitch recognition skills that helps him get good pitches to hit, but that longer swing can lead to some swing and miss and he struck out in over a quarter of his plate appearances last spring. As I mentioned with Brutcher, that can be natural for taller young hitters and many outgrow it in time. The fact that Cunningham is very young for his class, only turning 21 shortly before the draft, adds to that upside. He's also an above average runner with a chance to play center field in the long run, though also like Brutcher, a better defender could push him to right field where he would be above average. Aside from the pure bat to ball skills, it's a very well rounded profile that has already become a problem for opposing pitchers in the C-USA.

9. RHP William Privette, College of Charleston.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 210 lbs. Born 2/1/2002. Hometown: Chapin, SC.
2022: 3-1, 0.91 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 80/15 K/BB in 59.1 innings.
College of Charleston was quietly a very solid team last year, winning the CAA regular season title at 19-5 in conference on their way to a 37-20 finish. A big reason for that success was their closer, William Privette, who is looking to be the first Cougar drafted in the top five rounds since Taylor Clarke and Carl Wise went in the third and fourth round, respectively, in 2015. In fact, Charleston hasn't had a player drafted at all since three Cougars heard their names called in 2019, so Privette is a very exciting development for the program. He dominated CAA hitters with a 0.91 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, while recording nearly twice as many strikeouts (80) as baserunners allowed (49). He carried that success on to the Cape Cod League, where he made six relief appearances and posted a 1.74 ERA and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings. Privette won't light up the radar gun, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a solid breaking ball that plays well off the heater. It all plays up, though, for a variety of reasons. Despite longer arm action, the 6'5" righty manages to keep everything in sync and shows above average control, helping him stay ahead in the count and keep his pitches closer to the zones where they'll play better. He also shows heavy trunk tilt that helps him create a very vertical release point closer to the first base side of the rubber than you would expect from a right hander, and it works with his setup as he pitches from the first base side already. He also gets some sneaky life on his fastball up in the zone, and together, it's a great relief profile that provides a fairly unique look. It will be interesting to see if Charleston runs him out as a starter at any point, but he has been so successful in a relief role that they may not want to mess with it. With two quality pitches, good command, a big frame, a unique look, and a track record of performance, he checks a lot of boxes for a college reliever.

10. RHP Eriq Swan, Middle Tennessee State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'6", 240 lbs. Born 10/31/2001. Hometown: Murfreesboro, TN.
2022: 2-6, 7.62 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 44/31 K/BB in 52 innings.
Eriq Swan gives us a second big right handed reliever in a row, but he is virtually the opposite of William Privette as a prospect. Swan showed well in a small sample as a freshman at Middle Tennessee State, but really struggled as a sophomore when he allowed more than a run per inning and ran just a 17.2% strikeout rate to a 12.1% walk rate. He earned three early season appearances in the Cape Cod League over the summer and showed extremely well, tossing eight shutout innings while allowing just four hits and one walk mixed in with eleven strikeouts. It was all punctuated in his final appearance, when he struck out eight of the eleven Falmouth batters he faced on June 25th including Drew Brutcher on this list and possible top ten pick Brayden Taylor of TCU. Swan is a fireballer, sitting comfortably in the mid 90's as a starter and running it as high as 99 in short stints, all with a fairly effortless delivery from a huge 6'6" frame. He also drops in a a solid slider with great depth, though it does need too add power to miss pro bats, and shows feel for a solid changeup as well. To this point, he has not missed many bats at MTSU and looks like he would fit much better in relief, as his command is better in short spurts and it's easier for him to maintain his stuff. College starters who transition to relief work in pro ball often fare better than those who were already pure relievers when they were drafted, and if his short Cape run is any indication, Swan could be a sleeper to benefit from such a move with his power fastball and two quality offspeeds.

2023 Hall of Fame: My Ballot

Another year, another cycle of Hall of Fame discourse that will range anywhere from fascinating to toxic. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are unfortunately gone from the ballot, but the steroid discourse is far from over with names like Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, and others still present. For my full thoughts on cheaters and the Hall of Fame, click here, but the quick summary is that I think almost all of them should get in. 

My ballot this year is a bit sparse. Last year, I voted for the full ten players, but this year I'm down to six after David Ortiz earned induction, Bonds, Clemens, and Curt Schilling ran out of eligibility, and Bobby Abreu dropped off my ballot. No newcomers made their way on, but A-Rod is an addition from last year after the one year steroid penalty I applied. Below, let's first walk through the players I would vote for on my hypothetical ballot, then let's walk through the ones that I wouldn't vote for and why that is. As a reminder, players need 75% of the vote to get into the Hall of Fame.

YES VOTES

3B Alex Rodriguez (1994-2016)
Regular Season: 696 HR, .295/.380/.550, 329 SB, 141 wRC+, 113.7 fWAR in 2784 games.
Postseason: 13 HR, .259/.365/.457, 8 SB, 116 wRC+ in 75 games.
Last year, I had Alex Rodriguez wait in "time out" because I didn't want to (hypothetically) make a cheater a first ballot Hall of Famer. Now that we're past that, though, it's time to let A-Rod into the Hall. You can't argue with the results. Nearly 700 home runs, over 300 stolen bases, over 500 doubles, and an on-base percentage approaching .400 while playing stellar defense makes for an inner-circle resume. His 113.7 fWAR ranks thirteenth all time, ahead of names like Mickey Mantle (112.3), Mike Schmidt (106.5), and Rickey Henderson (106.3). But of course, that's not the point. Not only did Alex Rodriguez cheat, he did so at a time when it was clearly against the rules and he served a yearlong suspension in 2014. So he didn't just cheat, he is a cheater. That said, as I mentioned in my thoughts on cheaters and the Hall of Fame, so are dozens of players already enshrined. There is no purity to preserve. Put him in, and do the same with Bonds and Clemens while we're at it.

LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Regular Season: 2.31 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 innings.
Postseason: 10.03 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 1.97 WHIP, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 innings.
Okay, Billy Wagner has been on the ballot for long enough. He finally crossed the 50% threshold last year in his seventh attempt, and now at number eight I'm starting to lose patience. Left handed relievers are obviously extremely important, given that every team always ensures that they have one in the bullpen, yet there is not a single one in the Hall of Fame. Billy Wagner isn't just the best lefty reliever of all time – it's not even close. There aren't many cumulative stats available for relievers (no, I don't care about saves), but Wagner leads all lefty relievers in strikeouts (1196, ahead of Jesse Orosco's 1169), fWAR (24.0, ahead of Aroldis Chapman's 20.1), RE24 (198.2, ahead of Orosco's 154.5), and WPA (28.4, ahead of Chapman's 19.9), four stats I think are very good measures of long term success. And aside from strikeouts, none of these are even close, with a 19% lead in fWAR, a 28% lead in RE24, and a massive 43% lead in WPA. Take handedness out of the question, and he still stacks up extremely well to the six true relievers in the Hall of Fame right now. Mariano Rivera is head and shoulders above everybody, but looking at the others – Trevor Hoffman, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, and Bruce Sutter – Wagner has a better ERA, FIP, WHIP, RE24, and strikeout rate than all of them. 903 innings isn't a huge number, but it's big enough and he was so dominant in those 903 innings that the case is clear. The lone blemish on his resume is a rough, small sample postseason line, but that's hardly enough to keep him out. Wagner should have been in the Hall of Fame years ago and I hope 2023 is finally the year.

OF Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Regular Season: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games.
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 5 SB, 108 wRC+ in 76 games.
The more time goes by, the more clear-cut Andruw Jones' case looks. We are talking about a player in the conversation for the greatest defensive outfielder of all time, and that alone at least puts him in the conversation. Throw in that he hit 434 home runs, including 25+ in ten straight seasons, and had four different seasons in which he posted an on-base percentage above .360. Yeah, the end of his career was pretty abysmal, as he slashed just .214/.314/.420 and put just just 6.0 fWAR in 589 games from his age-30 season onwards. But what he had done before that was nothing short of tremendous. From 1998-2006, a stretch of nine seasons, he slashed .270/.347/.513 with 319 home runs and 110 stolen bases, which together with his defense was enough to help him rack up the third most fWAR in all of MLB behind only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. And that's no fluke – that's nearly a decade sitting in the top three in the sport. That's a Hall of Fame-caliber prime by any measure, and even with the drop off at the end, it's hard to argue with a guy who hit 434 home runs on his way to being an 11% better than league average hitter, appeared in over 2000 games, and showed well in the postseason, all while playing some of the best outfield defense ever seen. That's pretty clear to me.

3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
Regular Season: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games.
Postseason: 5 HR, .220/.302/.376, 0 SB, 78 wRC+ in 39 games.
Many people have taken up Scott Rolen as their "guy" in this cycle, and more power to them. Personally, I see him more as a guy I'd like to see get in rather than the one I'm going to stump the hardest for (that would be Wagner and Jones), but I'm still on Team Rolen. Back when he was playing, I don't think many people thought they were watching a future Hall of Famer (though his 34 HR, .314/.409/.598, 9.0 fWAR 2004 season was a Hall of Fame-caliber season), but when you zoom the camera out, the profile looks better and better. Already a high level defender, he went eight straight seasons from 1997-2004 with at least a 121 wRC+, meaning at any point in that stretch he was no less than 21% better than league average with the bat. During that time, he had the third most fWAR in baseball behind only Bonds and A-Rod, though unlike Jones he didn't have that huge drop off at the end of his career. So we have a high level defender, a well above average bat, a consistent bat that held his production over a long period of time (enough to rack up 300+ home runs, 500+ doubles, and 100+ stolen bases if you like counting stats), and best of all for some old school voters, a guy who did it clean. Yeah, he never really looked like a Hall of Famer outside that huge 2004 season, but in aggregate, I think he was.

OF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011)
Regular Season: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games.
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games.
Manny Ramirez presents a very interesting case. Like Alex Rodriguez, he cheated, he got caught, and he cheated at a time when it was clearly against the rules. So now I have to apply that penalty to his numbers, which on their own are pretty comfortably up to Hall of Fame standards. I noted that borderline players who were caught or at least have a consensus around them using PED's would not make my ballot, but because Ramirez is fairly comfortably above that threshold, he then becomes a borderline case after the PED penalty has already been factored in. Still, even with the PED's, it's hard to go ahead a guy that finished well above 500 home runs and nearly reached a .300/.400/.600 career line in over 2300 games. Only five hitters ever can match all three legs of Manny's slash line – Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Hank Greenberg. None of those players appeared in a game after 1960, and among that group, only Ruth out-homered Ramirez. He is a top-25 hitter of all time by wRC+, a feat made more impressive by the fact that offense was at an all time high when he played, and he reached a 140 or better wRC+ fifteen times in a sixteen year stretch from 1995-2010. So for a decade and a half, he was no less than an elite hitter at virtually any time. Throw in the fact that he is the all time postseason home run leader at 29, and I feel comfortable getting over the PED penalty and the poor defense.

OF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009)
Regular Season: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games.
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games.
Gary Sheffield is a very borderline case, and I won't die on this hill. Given that he likely used PED's, he would seem to fit the bill as a player with a borderline case who was disqualified because without those PED's, he probably doesn't put up a HoF resume. But with that said, his PED usage is not as clear-cut as guys like Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod, or Manny Ramirez, and I've mentioned that I tend to look for at least widespread consensus if not full on proof. I would flip my vote to "no" if proof came out, but to this point I don't find "probably" to be a strong enough adverb to apply that penalty. So let's take his case for what he did on the field. Sheffield clubbed over 500 home runs and over a thousand extra base hits in total while holding a slash line that nearly reached the .300/.400/.500 threshold despite a very long, 22 year career. Finishing with a career 141 wRC+, he had three qualified seasons in which he was up over 170 (an elite number) and six in which he was up over 150. And unlike many big power hitters, he rarely struck out, topping out at a measly 83 punch outs in 2004 and 2008. So he has the counting stats and he certainly looked the part of a Hall of Famer for a few different sustained periods in his career, and for me that's just enough even if he wasn't a great defender. The numbers don't look quite as great coming after Manny Ramirez, but it's important to note that Manny was playing with the PED penalty while Sheffield is not.

NO VOTES

OF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Regular Season: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games.
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 76 games.
Last year, I voted yes on Bobby Abreu, but I mentioned that I was right on the fence and leaned 51-49 towards my yes vote. This year, I'm still extremely on the fence but I'm leaning 51-49 towards a no vote. It's simply the most borderline case I've encountered so far. Bobby Abreu had a great career, clubbing nearly 300 home runs and nearly 600 doubles while getting on base at a nearly .400 clip and stealing 400 bases. From 1998-2006, he posted an OBP above .400 eight times in nine seasons, he hit at least fifteen home runs in thirteen straight seasons from 1998-2010, clubbing at least 30 doubles in eleven of those, and stole at least nineteen bases in fourteen straight seasons from 1998-2011. He was an on-base machine, could hit for some power, and was an extremely smart baserunner that maximized his speed on the base paths. Add in that he played in over 150 games in thirteen straight seasons from 1998-2010, and he was a model of consistency that contributed to the Phillies, Yankees, and Angels offenses in a wide variety of ways. It's a rock-solid offensive profile, if not the most flashy, but his glove doesn't do him any favors. With an average glove, I think I would vote Abreu in. But he was a net-negative in the field, especially in the second half of his career, so the pressure is on the bat. And it was very, very good. But was it truly great? I think it was close, but I do lean towards a small Hall philosophy and ultimately Bobby Abreu falls victim to that this year. Maybe he'll be back on my ballot next year, we'll see.

1B Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Regular Season: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games.
Todd Helton is very, very close, but my small Hall mindset is going to keep him out for now. As a first baseman playing his home games at Coors Field, the offensive bar is going to be incredibly high to reach the Hall of Fame, and during his peak from 1999-2005, he did just that by slashing .341/.442/.621 with 241 home runs in 1092 games. Over that seven year stretch, it was good for the fourth most fWAR in baseball behind Bonds, A-Rod, and Andruw Jones. But unfortunately, the decline was pretty steep; from 2006-2013, he slashed .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs in 968 games. Even for a first baseman at Coors Field, holding an on-base percentage near .400 through your post-prime years is impressive, and it's almost enough to get him into the Hall for me. Jones followed a similar career arc and I see him as a clear-cut Hall of Famer, but it's important to note that Jones' prime lasted nine years while Helton's lasted seven, so it was almost 30% longer. It's also not his fault that he only got to play in fifteen postseason games, but Helton did not take advantage of that small sample opportunity so there's no addition to the resume there. In the end, we have to decide if seven years of elite hitting is enough by itself to warrant a Hall of Fame vote – in my opinion as someone with a small Hall mindset, that's a no.

LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
Regular Season: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 innings.
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 innings.
The phrase "Hall of Very Good" gets thrown around often, and I think Andy Pettitte can be a prime example of what that looks like. The closer you look at his resume, the better it looks, with a very long career that provided a tremendous amount of value to the Yankees and the Astros. He was a true workhorse that topped 200 innings ten different times and 185 innings thirteen different times, and for the most part he kept his ERA in the 3.50 to 4.30 range most years despite pitching in hitter-friendly parks in the Steroid Era. His postseason resume is impressive, too, as his numbers did not dip at all and he earned the 2001 ALCS MVP Award. Fans can underestimate the value of a strong #2 or #3 starter, and Pettitte provided that for nearly two decades, even popping for ace-like seasons in 1997 and 2005. There is a place in the Hall for consistency and longevity, but ultimately I see it as a place for the all time greats, not just those who were able to string together enough cumulative value to make it. For as great as he was, aside from those two great seasons I don't think opposing teams looked at the lineup card in the morning and thought "uh oh, Andy Pettitte is pitching." Obviously nobody looked forward to facing him, and he still provided a very tough matchup, but the point stands. Andy Pettitte was very, very good for a very long time, but I just don't see a Hall of Famer.

2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008)
Regular Season: 377 HR, .290/.356/.500, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR in 2298 games.
Postseason: 9 HR, .276/.340/.500, 1 SB, 119 wRC+ in 49 games.
It's Jeff Kent's last year on the ballot, and he's very close to a Hall of Famer. He brings a great combination of longevity and consistent, high level performance, having posted eight consecutive 20 HR/30 double seasons, ten consecutive seasons with a wRC+ of 120 or higher (and sixteen straight at league average or better), and nine consecutive seasons with at least 3.3 fWAR. In 2000, he popped for a tremendous season, slashing .334/.424/.596 with 33 home runs and 7.4 fWAR. And given that he played in over 100 games in all seventeen seasons of his career, he was able to rack up solid counting stats with nearly 400 home runs, well over 500 doubles, and nearly 2500 hits in all. He wasn't a standout defender, but he was certainly solid over there at second base. Throw in good postseason performance with a .276/.340/.500 line over 49 games, and it's a well rounded profile. Ultimately though, it feels just a little light. For all his consistency and longevity, he only popped for a 140 or better wRC+ twice, only reached 5.0 fWAR twice, only once hit more than 33 home runs in a season, and only once posted an on-base percentage above .385. So similar to Andy Pettitte, he was very good for a very long time, but there's no peak here that really wows you beyond his one great season in 2000 and another very good one in 2002. I feel better comparing Jeff Kent to the great second basemen of the era, like Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar, and Chase Utley, than I do to the greats of all time.

LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015)
Regular Season: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 1870/734 K/BB in 3283.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 innings.
Mark Buehrle is closer than you'd think, but ultimately not quite a Hall of Famer. He was a model of consistency, going fifteen straight seasons with at least 198.2 innings pitched while only once allowing his ERA to rise above 4.28 or his FIP above 4.46. He generated a lot of weak contact, took care of some of it himself with a standout glove, and gave the White Sox and later Marlins and Blue Jays a rock near the top of their rotations. However, he also spent much of his career pitching in a weaker AL Central and he was never particularly dominant, save for perhaps his 2005 season (3.12 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 149/40 K/BB) and of course his 2007 no-hitter and 2009 perfect game. It's hard to get into the Hall based on consistent solid performance rather than periods of true standout performance, and if you were going to give Buehrle a shot, you probably would have wanted to see him throw more than sixteen seasons.

SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Regular Season: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games.
I wasn't a big Omar Vizquel fan before the abuse/sexual assault allegations came out against him, and while I tend not to be concerned about a player's off field behavior, the allegations are pretty serious. Still, I don't need those to know that he's not a Hall of Famer. I do think there is a place in the Hall for the game's elite defenders, but Ozzie Smith (90 wRC+) and Andruw Jones (111 wRC+) are not in the same tier as Vizquel (83 wRC+). Jones clubbed 434 home runs and was a well-above league average hitter for most of his career, while Smith was 10% below league average but did pop for seven seasons in which he was above league average. Vizquel, meanwhile, was 17% below league average for his career and only twice in his 24 seasons could be considered above league average by wRC+ (115 in 1999, 102 in 2002). In an era when offense was at an all time high, Vizquel was a black hole in those Mariners, Indians, and Giants offenses that hit for no power and didn't even get on base at a terribly high clip. He finished with a .336 on-base percentage for his career and never reached .400 in any single season. The counting stats are good – nearly 3000 hits, over 450 doubles, and over 400 stolen bases – but they're not enough to make up for the lack of impact at the plate even with the special glove.

OF Carlos Beltran (1998-2017)
Regular Season: 435 HR, .279/.350/.486, 312 SB, 118 wRC+, 67.8 fWAR in 2586 games.
Postseason: 16 HR, .307/.412/.609, 11 SB, 169 wRC+ in 65 games.
Because he cheated pretty egregiously with the Astros in 2017, Carlos Beltran will get his automatic one year "time out" from my ballot. Going forward, I'm open to voting for him – over 400 home runs, over 1000 extra base hits, over 300 stolen bases, seven different seasons more than 5.0 fWAR, and elite postseason performance certainly warrant strong consideration. But I'll leave deeper thought on that for next year.

RHP Francisco Rodriguez (2002-2017)
Regular Season: 2.86 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 1142/389 K/BB in 976 innings.
Postseason: 2.95 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 49/18 K/BB in 36.2 innings.
The bar for relievers to get into the Hall of Fame is high, and it should be. The fact that Billy Wagner isn't in proves that, and I'm all in on Wagner's case. Francisco Rodriguez, I believe, is close to having a Hall of Fame case, but it's not quite enough. Among relievers, he's twentieth all time in fWAR, ninth in RE24, and thirteenth in WPA. For a span of fourteen years from 2003-2016, he was more often than not among the best closers in the league, and that's certainly a loud statement. But inconsistent command kept him from truly joining the game's elite closers for the most part, and I don't think he's in the same tier as Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner (and of course nobody is in Mariano Rivera's tier). I think he's closer to Joe Nathan, who narrowly missed my ballot last year but failed to receive the necessary 5% to get another shot. I do hope K-Rod gets the 5% so we can give him a few looks, but I'll ultimately be okay if Rivera, Hoffman, and hopefully eventually Wagner are the only relievers from that era to make the Hall.

RHP Jered Weaver (2006-2017)
Regular Season: 150-98, 3.63 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 1621/551 K/BB in 2067.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 2.60 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 28/12 K/BB in 27.2 innings.
Jered Weaver almost had it. Over the first nine seasons of his career, and at the time of his 32nd birthday, he was 131-69 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, which is probably a Hall of Fame pace. A reasonable decline in his thirties would have given him a case, but unfortunately, his velocity disappeared and he would pitch just three more seasons, going 19-29 with a 5.15 ERA and finding himself out of baseball by his 35th birthday. I don't consider him to be close to the Hall, but I do want to give credit where it's due given how good he was over the first nine seasons of his career.

Cheating and the Hall of Fame: 2023 Take

I wrote about my thoughts on steroids and the Hall of Fame prior to the 2021 vote, and two years later, they haven't changed much but the discussion has gotten more complicated. Back then, we were discussing players like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Mark McGwire, who almost certainly cheated but did so at a time where it was rampant, untested, and perhaps even encouraged. We were also starting to see players like Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettitte, and David Ortiz, who played in the same era but have more mystery surrounding the existence and extent of their cheating. Now, we have players like Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, who tested positive at a time where cheating was cheating, end of story. Throw in Carlos Beltran and his sign stealing scandal, and it's just a lot more complicated than it once was.

Like I mentioned, my thoughts on that initial group of Steroid Era steroid users haven't changed much over the past two years, and you can read them at the link above. To summarize, I hate cheating, I think it's bad for baseball, and I also recognize the reality of the situation – players have cheated throughout baseball history in a variety of, and steroids are hardly the first instance of it. With Bonds, Clemens, and all other players who fall into that category now gone from the ballot, it's not like it matters much. For the second group of alleged cheaters, I don't feel the need to play judge and jury. If there's no general consensus, who am I to keep a potentially innocent player out of the Hall of Fame? Well for one, I'm not actually a voter, but hypothetically.

And lastly, we have the third group to discuss. That would be those that failed a drug test when the rules were clearly being enforced, and it would also include Beltran and his Astros scandal. There's no gray area here – these players are cheaters, whether for one season or their whole career. I don't believe cheaters belong in the Hall of Fame, but unfortunately, they're already there. Players have bet on games, scuffed baseballs, used illegal performance enhancers, and oh yeah, they completely segregated the game for more than half a century. There is no keeping the Hall "pure." It's not, and given that prominent segregationist Cap Anson was elected in 1939, it really never was. So unfortunately, the Hall is a place for cheaters, whether we like it or not. So I have two methods of dealing with the issue. One is that I won't vote for them in their first year. Think of it as "timeout" or whatever, but I don't think cheaters should be first ballot Hall of Famers. From year two, though, the thinking changes. Then it comes down to their accomplishments on the field. Borderline Hall of Famers who were proven to have cheated do not belong in the Hall, because it is entirely possible that they may not have been good enough if they hadn't cheated. But those who are clear or fairly clear-cut Hall of Famers should get in. If A-Rod had been clean his whole career, I find it highly unlikely that his numbers would have dipped enough to keep him out. So he's in for me.

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at the Big Ten

2022 draftees: 27. Top school: Iowa/Ohio State (4)
2022 preseason writeup (published 9/24/2021)

Top 2022 draftees:
2-53, Padres: RHP Adam Mazur (Iowa)
CBB-69, A's: OF Clark Elliott (Michigan)
4-132, Brewers: C Matt Wood (Penn State)
5-154, A's: RHP Jack Perkins (Indiana)
6-188, Blue Jays: RHP TJ Brock (Ohio State)
7-218, Blue Jays: 1B Peyton Williams (Iowa)
8-227, Orioles: RHP Cameron Weston (Michigan)

The Power Five is a football term, with the Big East in basketball showing they might have a Power Six over there and the Big Ten in baseball showing us it may be more of a Power Four over here. In baseball, they haven't had a top fifty pick since Minnesota's Max Meyer and Ohio State's Dillon Dingler went third and 38th overall, respectively, in 2020. Last season, no school had more than four players drafted, whereas every team in the SEC except Texas A&M (3) reached that total. However, things are looking up for baseball in the B1G. At least a half dozen players are within striking distance of the top two rounds right now, whereas only one went in that range last year, and a couple could even go in the first round. Meanwhile, the conference is a few years away from welcoming UCLA and USC, the former of which is one of the premier programs in all of college baseball. And with conference realignment raging out of control as it is, more could follow. It's looking like it could be a big year for Maryland, who leads the conference with three names on the top ten list below (including the top prospect in the conference) and has begun to turn into one of the premier programs in the Big Ten. 

1. SS Matt Shaw, Maryland.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'11", 185 lbs. Born 11/6/2001. Hometown: Brimfield, MA.
2022: 22 HR, .290/.381/.604, 12 SB, 46/34 K/BB in 60 games.
Matt Shaw has done nothing but hit since arriving in College Park. He slashed .332/.408/.543 as a freshman then more than tripled his home run output to 22 as a sophomore, good for second in the conference behind only his teammate Chris Alleyne's 24. After that, he further boosted his stock in the Cape Cod League, where he slashed .348/.434/.571 with six home runs in 44 games, planting himself firmly in first round consideration. Shaw lacks a carrying tool, but he can impact the game in a wide variety of ways. Hitting from a closed off stance much like Giancarlo Stanton (except that he's seven inches shorter), he's very good at getting his arms extended and using the whole field, showing above average power to all fields. He takes good at bats and has run just a 16.2% strikeout rate during his career at Maryland, then despite an elevated 22.2% rate on the Cape, he was able to work around that and do plenty of damage against the best arms in the country. An above average runner as well, he's aggressive on the basepaths and uses his speed well, which should also give him a shot to stick at shortstop going forward so long as he doesn't slow down with age. Standing just 5'11", he's not going to wow you with long home runs, highlight reel plays, or .400+ on-base percentages, but he'll get the job done on both sides of the ball, using the whole field as a hitter and showing some versatility with the glove. At peak, he could hit 15-20 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages while potentially holding down an everyday shortstop role, making for a Dansby Swanson-like profile if the glove holds up.

2. SS Mitch Jebb, Michigan State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 185 lbs. Born 5/13/2002. Hometown: Saginaw, MI.
2022: 6 HR, .356/.448/.511, 20 SB, 16/38 K/BB in 54 games.
Now this, this is a fun profile. After not making much impact as a freshman, he broke out with a huge 2022 in which he had more stolen bases (20) than strikeouts (16), certainly not something we see often these days. He followed that up with a fantastic run through the Cape Cod League, matching Matt Shaw almost step for step by slashing .337/.411/.459 with another 27 stolen bases in 44 games, though his 30 strikeouts were just above that. Prospects Live hit the nail on the head when they described Jebb as a "Japanese-style slap hitter," because the resemblance between Jebb's game and his East Asian counterparts is uncanny. The central Michigan native is a very slim guy at 6'1", working from a crouched setup in which he slowly rocks back and then forwards before flinging the barrel at the ball with an exaggerated finish. The result is exceptional bat control that led to his elite 6.1% strikeout rate at Michigan State last year, followed by a still very solid 15.2% on the Cape. He finds holes, hits good pitching, and sprays the ball around the field with the best of them, then uses his plus speed to make the most of his balls in play. He will never be a home run threat, though he can swipe one out to the pull side if you're not careful, again due to his elite ability to find the barrel. Defensively, he may be a bit stretched at shortstop, but he could fit well at second base and has a high floor as a utility infielder that gets on base. Jebb is also on the younger side for the class, only turning 21 two months before the draft, giving him a little extra time to fill out and possibly find more of a power stroke.

3. OF Ryan Lasko, Rutgers.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 6/24/2002. Hometown: Jackson, NJ.
2022: 16 HR, .349/.431/.643, 13 SB, 43/30 K/BB in 58 games.
Rutgers' 44 wins last year established a new program record, and a large amount of their success was owed to first team all-Big Ten outfielder Ryan Lasko. He has his strengths and weaknesses, but overall he does a lot well. His whippy right handed swing and strong six foot frame give him above average power that he can spread out to all fields, and he handled Big Ten pitching extremely well with just a 14.2% strikeout rate to go along with his loud slash line. While he crushes average pitching, there are questions as to his ability to continue to perform with wood bats and against better competition, as he slashed just .257/.329/.316 on the Cape and struck out 23.7% of the time as the jump in competition forced him out of his approach a little bit. Proponents will point to his age, as he's young for his class and won't turn 21 until shortly before the draft, and also the fact that he did start swinging the bat better late in the Cape season, including a .348/.348/.522 run through the playoffs. Lasko is not just a bat, though. The central Jersey native is also an above average defender in center field, where he should stick in the long run and take some pressure off his right handed bat. He's a strong athlete overall that could make a great fourth outfielder, and if the bat adjusts to better competition like it looks like it's capable of, he could be a starting center fielder that hits 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages and good defense.

4. RHP Ty Langenberg, Iowa.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 12/8/2001. Hometown: Urbandale, IA.
2022: 7-2, 3.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 74/23 K/BB in 63 innings.
Ty Langenberg was a seldom-used reliever as a freshman in 2021, then took a step forward to become Iowa's Sunday starter in 2022 with solid results. After a strong run through the Cape Cod League (4.13 ERA, 36/6 K/BB in 24 IP), he looks poised to take another step forward of equal magnitude. The top pitching prospect in the conference, Langenberg sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can comfortably run it up to around 95, getting some life on the pitch that hasn't quite found its identity yet. His slider doesn't always have consistent shape, sometimes showing downer action but playing better as a sweeper and flashing above average in the latter shape. Lastly, he rounds his arsenal out with a plus changeup that misses a ton of bats, giving him the best three pitch arsenal in the Big Ten. Iowa is one of the more data-driven programs in the country, so he's in the right place for it all to come together for his junior season. Beyond the stuff, the 6'2" righty shows an athletic, repeatable delivery that helps him control the strike zone, running a solid 8.2% walk rate at Iowa last year before dropping to 5.9% on the Cape. In 2023, he'll look to miss more bats with his fastball and establish himself as a true mid-rotation option, as his great run through the Cape came as a reliever that averaged fewer than two innings per appearance.

5. C Luke Shliger, Maryland.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'9", 180 lbs. Born 9/25/2001. Hometown: Danbury, CT.
2022: 12 HR, .353/.495/.602, 14 SB, 42/54 K/BB in 62 games.
Matt Shaw isn't the only sub-six footer in Maryland's lineup projected to go in the first couple of rounds. Luke Shliger was a light hitting backup in his freshman year in 2021, but busted out for a huge sophomore season in which he led the Big Ten in on-base percentage and his 1.097 OPS comfortably topped Shaw's .985. Though his power didn't really show up, he kept getting on base at an elite clip on the Cape, where he slashed .266/.404/.291 in 28 games. If there is a bat in the conference that is advanced enough to make the jump to pro ball, it's his. The western Connecticut native rarely chases, taking extremely professional at bats that led to walk rates above 16% both at Maryland and on the Cape, the latter of which you rarely see. He recognizes offspeed stuff and is unfazed by velocity, which also helps him get his barrel to the ball with great consistency. Combine that pitch selection and barrel accuracy with a natural uppercut that maximizes his power, and he can really ambush you. The problem comes when you account for his lack of actual raw power, as he stands just 5'9" with an average build. While the ambush power works great with metal bats, it didn't show up on the Cape with wood and there are questions over how much will come in pro ball. He's limited at that size, but if he can get on a pro conditioning program and bulk up a little, his swing and approach are geared to get the most out of it. Defensively, Shliger is a good athlete with the agility to stick behind the plate, though the finer aspects of his game do need some work and he'll need to prove he is physical enough to handle a full season back there. It's probably a backup catcher/utility man profile that can play some corner outfield and get on base, with a chance for more if he bulks up in the right program and unlocks more offensive impact.

6. 3B Max Anderson, Nebraska.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 195 lbs. Born 2/28/2002. Hometown: Omaha, NE.
2022: 10 HR, .299/.349/.513, 6 SB, 26/14 K/BB in 53 games.
With glasses and an average build, Max Anderson doesn't look like a top prospect. However, between a .314/.366/.507 career line at Nebraska and a long track record of success in the Cape Cod League, it's hard to knock the performance. He played on the Cape in both 2021 and 2022 and combined to slash .297/.356/.405 in 78 games, showing no issues with the jump in competition from the Big Ten either after his freshman or sophomore campaigns. Anderson is an aggressive hitter that would rather chase a borderline pitch than get caught looking at a quality strike, leading to a 6.8% career walk rate at Nebraska, but his strong bat to ball skills really limit the swing and miss so he still rarely strikes out with an 11.7% career rate. It evens out to an average hit tool that could become above average if he gets a little more selective, and he's already moving in that direction having bumped his walk rate from 6.0% his first year on the Cape to 10.7% this past summer. The Omaha native also shows average power stemming from his ability to find the barrel consistently, making for a very well-rounded offensive profile with an accurate and potent barrel. He's going to want that bat to play up, because he's an average athlete that will have to work hard to stay at third base without the explosive range or arm strength you get from many converted shortstops that end up there. If he's forced over to first base or a corner outfield spot, the power will really have to come around (and he'll have to find a way to cut down on the chases against higher quality offspeed stuff) if he wants to play every day. Otherwise, it's a bench/platoon bat profile.

7. LHP Jason Savacool, Maryland.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 210 lbs. Born 5/21/2002. Hometown: Baldwinsville, NY.
2022: 8-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 123/28 K/BB in 107.2 innings.
One of the top prospects to reach campus from the 2020 high school class, Jason Savacool jumped straight into the Maryland weekend rotation as a freshman then took a step forward in 2022, even if his stuff remains largely the same as high school. He actually led the Big Ten in strikeouts by a wide margin this past season and also finished atop the conference in innings pitched, giving the Terrapins an absolute horse at the top of their rotation heading into 2023. Savacool does not have much of a fastball, sitting around 90 and topping out around 92 most days with average movement, and it likely won't miss many bats at the next level. He adds an above average slider that acts as his best pitch, also changing pace with a distinct curveball and a solid changeup. He's successful, though, because of his pitchability. The 6'1" righty goes right after hitters with above average command, hiding the ball very well behind his big frame and mixing his pitches effectively to keep hitters off balance. That helped his stuff play up to a 28.5% strikeout rate last year, but to this point it's hard to see him finding much success beyond a #5 starter role in pro ball unless he sees an uptick in velocity. However, if he can get into the low 90's more consistently and perhaps touch 94-95 at peak, suddenly it becomes a mid-rotation starter outlook that can stick in a big league rotation for a long time, even if he doesn't have standout life on his stuff. To top it off, he is younger for the class with a May birthday and has that much more time to find that velocity bump.

8. RHP George Klassen, Minnesota.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 170 lbs. Born 1/26/2002. Hometown: Port Washington, WI.
2022: 0-2, 14.09 ERA, 2.61 WHIP, 8/14 K/BB in 7.2 innings.
Now this is a profile you don't see every day, as George Klassen exists on the opposite end of the spectrum from Jason Savacool. He missed his freshman season with Tommy John surgery, then stumbled to 7.2 extremely ineffective innings in 2022 as he walked or hit 42% of the hitters he faced. You read that correctly – that's fourteen walks and seven hit batsmen in 7.2 innings. He did go to the Northwoods League this summer and showed better with a 5.16 ERA and a 43/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings (good for a much better 12.4% walk rate), but the track record remains sparse. As you may have guessed, though, the stuff is off the charts. Klassen sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and has run it as high as 102, coming in with explosive life that puts it up there with fellow Golden Gopher righty Max Meyer for the best heater the conference has ever seen, at least if you ignore command. Klassen also adds a hard slider that can really fool hitters cheating on the heat, making for a deadly two pitch mix if he can stay ahead in the count. To this point, though, that hasn't been the case. The 6'2" righty has a very long arm path with a violent head whack that makes it extremely difficult to repeat his release point, giving him bottom of the scale command on his worst days and still well below average on his best. As he gets further from that surgery, he'll hope to smooth out the delivery a little bit and it looks like he has begun to, but it's a pure relief look unless something drastic changes. If he can get to even 40 grade command, though, that fastball/slider combination could become diabolical out of the bullpen and he could be on his way to a high leverage relief role. I'm not confident he can make that happen, but the stuff is so loud that once the third round or so rolls around, it might be time to start thinking about rolling the dice.

9. OF Keaton Anthony, Iowa.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 210 lbs. Born 6/24/2001. Hometown: Hoschton, GA.
2022: 14 HR, .361/.455/.678, 0 SB, 40/28 K/BB in 53 games.
Keaton Anthony got just one at bat as a freshman, but earned an every day role as a sophomore and put up a huge breakout season that earned him day two draft interest as an eligible sophomore. Instead he'll return to Iowa City to build off that big season, because with a right-right corner outfield profile, the offensive bar is high. Anthony has an advanced bat, using the whole field effectively with above average power that plays to all fields, helping him put up 36 extra base hits in 53 games last season. Easily the biggest man on this list at 6'4", 210 pounds, he's physically developed and that power comes very naturally. He also makes plenty of contact at the plate, running solid strikeout (16.4%) and walk (11.5%) rates with the ability to do damage all over the zone. If he handles the step up in competition from the Big Ten to pro ball, he has a chance at 55 hit, 55 power, but that's obviously a big if. Anthony's defensive profile doesn't do him any favors, as he is a below average runner and lacks the big arm you often see from this kind of profile. A right fielder for now, he'll probably move to left field in pro ball and may end up at first base. He's also older for the class having been eligible last year, exactly one year to the day older than the #3 man on this list, Ryan Lasko. Still, it might be the most complete bat in the conference outside of Matt Shaw, with a chance at 20+ home runs and solid on-base percentages at his ceiling and a more median outcome of a platoon bat well within reach.

10. SS Brice Matthews, Nebraska.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 175 lbs. Born 3/16/2002. Hometown: Humble, TX.
2022: 7 HR, .261/.379/.446, 12 SB, 56/25 K/BB in 45 games.
Brice Matthews is one of those multi-sport athletes that you are just waiting to see put it together. He has posted solid numbers so far at Nebraska (.266/.380/.453 over two years) but is yet to break out, though he did take a step forward against solid competition in the Northwoods League over the summer (.278/.452/.487) with improved strikeout and walk rates. Matthews is sort of the opposite of his teammate, Max Anderson, at the plate, with a very patient approach that helps him rack up the walks but can also get him behind in the count if he's not careful. He's still working on that pure bat to ball ability and when he falls into those 2-2, 3-2 counts in pro ball, he may have a hard time finishing them off. He does have good feel for the barrel and usually hits it hard when he hits it, so finding the right balance in his approach should eventually help him take off into an impact hitter. As he gets a little stronger, he could have above average power in time to go with all those walks. Unlike Keaton Anthony, Matthews' glove boosts his profile. He's an above average runner with enough range and arm strength to stick at shortstop so long as he cleans up some of the finer aspects of his game and doesn't slow down with age. If a better defender pushes him to the hot corner, he'll still provide plenty of value with his glove. It's a very solid all-around profile from a good athlete looking for a breakout year, and if it comes, he could go in the top couple of rounds. For now, he fits more in the middle of day two.