The Rockies face a unique challenge in that playing at Coors Field is unlike playing anywhere else. Hitters who can get the ball in the air are preferred, and pitchers who succeed with velocity and swing and miss stuff are preferred over those who pitch to contact. Rockies prospects also face a fairly unique climb through the minors, as every affiliate except for AA Hartford is hitter-friendly, preparing players for Coors Field but also testing the confidence of the pitchers. The system now is pretty top heavy, with a few very interesting names as the top prospects, but there is a sharp drop off after the best eight or so prospects, leaving the system without a ton of depth. Interestingly, there are virtually no outfield or catching prospects of much significance, with the hitters playing various positions throughout the infield.
Affiliates: AAA Albuquerque Isotopes, AA Hartford Yard Goats, High A Lancaster JetHawks, Class A Asheville Tourists, Short Season Boise Hawks, rookie level Grand Junction Rockies, and complex level DSL Rockies
*Note: when evaluating stats from this system, it is important to remember that virtually every affiliate, save for AA Hartford, is hitter-friendly, with High A Lancaster being the most hitter friendly stadium in the most hitter friendly league in minor league baseball.
The Headliner: 2B/3B Brendan Rodgers
22 year old former third overall pick Brendan Rodgers is the best prospect in the Rockies' system and likely one of the top fifteen or so in the game, showing an impact bat with the ability to play a strong second or third base. In 2018, he slashed .260/.330/.460 with 17 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 92/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games between AA Hartford and AAA Albuquerque, though he was much better at Hartford (.275/.342/.493) than Albuquerque (.232/.264/.290). He has power and drives the ball well to all fields, and he's just about major league ready well short of his 23rd birthday. Really, all the Orlando area native has left to work on is his approach at the plate, as it is good enough for him to punish AA pitching but was exposed in AAA. While he is able to hit for power while avoiding high numbers of strikeouts, he doesn't draw many walks and major league pitchers will just pound the corners against him. With some work in spring training and early 2019, he should be major league ready soon, and if he's armed with an improved approach, he should be an impact bat in the Colorado lineup. While he profiles best as a third baseman defensively with his strong arm, Nolan Arenado has that spot locked down and Rodgers is more likely to fill in at second base in 2019 behind Daniel Murphy, after which he can give the Rockies third base insurance in the case that Arenado leaves via free agency.
Starting Pitching Options: RHP Peter Lambert, RHP Rico Garcia, RHP Jesus Tinoco, RHP Ryan Castellani, RHP Riley Pint, and LHP Ryan Rolison
While the Rockies' emphasis on velocity has led to many of their pitching prospects ending up in the bullpen, they have managed to develop a nice set of starting pitchers ready to compete against their exceptionally young starting rotation. 21 year old Peter Lambert is easily the top pitching prospect in the system, just completing a season in the high minors where he went 10-7 with a 3.28 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 106/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings at AA Hartford and AAA Albuquerque. He was dominant at Hartford (2.23 ERA, 75/12 K/BB) but took some lumps in his transition to hitter-friendly Albuquerque (5.04 ERA, 31/15 K/BB), though he still held his own at the higher level and should be able to master it in 2019. He is a very advanced, mid-rotation looking pitcher with a low to mid 90's fastball, decent breaking pitches, a great changeup, and great command of it all that helps it all play up. He can locate any of his pitches and routinely gets ahead in the count, enabling him to keep hitters guessing even with his good-not-great stuff. He did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground in 2018 and if he can continue to do so in Colorado, Lambert could have a long career as a #3 starter. 25 year old Rico Garcia had a fantastic season statistically, going 13-9 with a 2.96 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 162/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 167 innings at High A Lancaster and Hartford, looking completely unfazed both by the hitters' paradise in Lancaster (3.42 ERA) and by the promotion up to AA (2.28 ERA). Turning 25 as I write this article, Garcia has been a bit older than the competition he is facing, and the former 30th round pick's stuff is just average at this point. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good curveball, and he has been effective at landing his pitches for strikes. He's probably more of a #4 or #5 starter in the majors, but his numbers don't lie and he may not be challenged until he reaches the majors. 23 year old Jesus Tinoco has been around forever, having played professional baseball since 2012 and having been included in the Troy Tulowitzki trade of 2015. Working slowly through the minors, the 6'4" righty posted a 4.79 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 132/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 innings at Hartford in 2018. He has good stuff all around and avoids walks, but he has been hurt by his tendency to leave pitches over the plate and falls victim to the home run ball. He has the chance to be a solid #3 or #4 starter if he can get a bit more consistent with his command, where he is trending in the right direction, but Colorado might not be the best environment for him if he can't keep balls in the park. 22 year old Ryan Castellani moved quickly through the minors for a high school draftee before stalling a bit in AA, taking a step back in 2018 with a 5.49 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a 91/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 134.1 innings in his second year at the level. While his stuff is very good, he struggled with command this year and without a turnaround in 2019, he's likely headed for the bullpen, where his very good fastball/slider combination will play up. He doesn't turn 23 until the beginning of the season and he already has plenty of experience in the high minors, albeit without much success there, giving him time to turn things around. 21 year old Riley Pint has the highest ceiling in the system, though like fellow former first rounder/electric armed pitcher Mike Nikorak, he has struggled with his command and his health. One online scouting report before the 2016 draft, where Pint was the fourth overall pick out of high school near Kansas City, wrote that Pint threw "poorly aimed lightning bolts" and honestly I think that is the best summation of his pitching that I have heard. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has hit as high as 102, and with his solid and deep assortment of secondary pitches, he has ace-like stuff. However, he frequently has no idea where his fastball is going, and the truth is, major league hitters can hit 102 when it's over the plate and they're ahead in the count. The other issue with Pint has been health, with forearm and oblique issues limiting him to four starts in 2018, in which he posted a 4.32 ERA, a 2.04 WHIP, and an 8/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.1 innings at short season Boise and Class A Asheville. He's basically a huge question mark at this point, but some consistent time on the mound might help his command improve, after which he could take off towards his top of the rotation potential. Lastly, 21 year old Ryan Rolison was a first round pick (22nd overall) out of Ole Miss in 2018, posting a 1.86 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings with rookie level Grand Junction after the draft. While the rest of his game is good, he's most well known for his curveball, a true plus pitch with great break and which he can command well enough to throw in any count. He also adds a low 90's fastball and some feel for a slider and a changeup, giving him #2 starter upside. His biggest issue in college was start to start consistency with his command, though if it is resolved soon he could move quickly through the minors.
Bat First Prospects: 3B Colton Welker, 1B Tyler Nevin, 1B Grant Lavigne, 1B Roberto Ramos, OF Vince Fernandez, OF Casey Golden, 2B Terrin Vavra, and OF Niko Decolati
Among the bat-first prospects, which in general are the better position-playing prospects in the system, there are really two tiers with three potential impact bats (after Rodgers) and five guys who are more likely to be utility/bench options, of course with plenty more fringe prospects behind them that won't be mentioned here. We'll start with 21 year old Colton Welker, a talented all-around third base prospect who slashed .333/.383/.489 with 13 home runs and a 103/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at the hitters' paradise in High A Lancaster. Welker has no real weaknesses in his game, showing on-base ability, some power, and good defense at third base, but he also lacks a standout tool. The Rockies have a ton of corner infield prospects but competition aside, he looks like a potential starter there if he continues to produce as he moves through the system, but if he has trouble making the transition to AA, his outlook may be downgraded to utility infielder. 21 year old Tyler Nevin played across from Welker in that Lancaster infield, slashing .328/.386/.503 with 13 home runs and a 77/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games. As with Welker, those numbers are inflated due to the environment, but he shows a similar skill set at the plate with the ability to get on base and hit for some power. However, Welker is the better prospect because of defensive value, as Nevin is an average-fielding first baseman while Welker has a good glove at third base. While you can argue back and forth over who is the better hitter (Welker is the better pure hitter while Nevin has a hair more power potential due to his size), Welker will get more chances if the bat falters due to that defensive versatility. Lastly among the first tier hitters, 19 year old Grant Lavigne has been a very pleasant surprise. Drafted in the competitive balance round (42nd overall) out of a New Hampshire high school this year, Lavigne's bat was a question mark just due to the fact that New Hampshire high school pitching is nowhere near the caliber that, for example, Welker faced in south Florida or Nevin faced in San Diego. However, Lavigne answered those questions emphatically by slashing .350/.477/.519 with six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 40/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games against advanced competition at rookie level Grand Junction. He showed the thunder in his bat but more importantly, he showed a very advanced approach against the best pitching he had ever seen, and even though he's limited to first base defensively, he could move to the top of the prospect charts very quickly with a successful year in A ball in 2019. Moving into the second tier, 24 year old Roberto Ramos had a big year by slashing .269/.368/.574 with 32 home runs and a 140/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Lancaster and AA Hartford. While his line was much better at Lancaster (.304/.411/.640) than at Hartford (.231/.320/.503), he still maintained a high walk rate and plenty of power even with the promotion, meaning to me that the bat is for real. He's a first baseman who strikes out a lot, so that will likely keep him from becoming a starter in the majors, but there is enough power in the bat to profile well at Coors Field and give him a shot as a bench option. 23 year old Vince Fernandez, arguably the best outfield prospect in a system that has very few of those, slashed .265/.370/.532 with 24 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 172/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Lancaster. The altitude definitely inflated his power numbers some, but he still hit nearly as many home runs as Welker and Nevin combined while adding 25 doubles and eight triples, and he has plenty of patience at the plate which helps push up his on-base percentage. However, he'll have to cut down on the strikeouts if he wants to succeed even at AA, and at this point he looks like a fourth or fifth outfielder. Right behind him is 24 year old power hitting outfielder Casey Golden, who slashed .278/.359/.562 with 34 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 180/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Asheville, another power-friendly environment. Add in his 20 home runs in his pro debut last season and he now has 54 home runs, 37 doubles, and four triples over 178 pro games for a total of 95 extra base hits, though his plate discipline needs serious work. Having turned 24 at the end of the 2018 season, he's been striking out way too much against younger competition, but if he can somehow figure out a way to shore up that approach quickly, that power and speed will play very nicely at Coors Field. 21 year old Terrin Vavra was a third round pick (96th overall) out of Minnesota who slashed .302/.396/.467 with four home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 40/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at short season Boise, like Welker showing a little bit of everything. He doesn't have Welker's power, but he has a very keen approach at the plate and sprays line drives all over the field while holding his own with decent second base defense. He's a classic utility infielder projection but could surprise if he can add some power. Lastly, 21 year old Niko Decolati was a sixth rounder out of Loyola Marymount in the same draft, coming into pro ball with plenty of batting practice power but struggling to get to it in games. He had an uphill climb in learning to do so with wood bats after mostly failing to do so with metal, but the Rockies must have done something right with him as he slashed .327/.414/.532 with 11 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 56/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games at Grand Junction. Decolati is still very much an under the radar prospect, but if whatever adjustments the Rockies had him make hold in the higher levels, he won't be under the radar much longer. Watch Decolati closely.
Glove First Prospects: 2B Garrett Hampson, 3B Ryan Vilade, OF Josh Fuentes, OF Sam Hilliard, and OF Yonathan Daza
Much like with the bat-first prospects, there are two tiers with these players. Garrett Hampson and Ryan Vilade can also swing it and have a good shot at ending up as starters, while the rest are likely going to be relegated to bench and utility duties. 24 year old Garrett Hampson is the best prospect in the group, having finished a 2018 where he slashed .311/.382/.462 with ten home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 75/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AA Hartford and hitter-friendly AAA Albuquerque before putting up a .275/.396/.400 line in a quick 24 game debut with the Rockies. While the bat may be a bit light if he wants to stick as a starter long term, he's a good enough defender to handle second or third base and has an advanced approach at the plate that will enable him to handle major league pitching. Nolan Arenado has a tight grip on third base for 2019 and Daniel Murphy is a newcomer at second base, so Hampson and Rodgers will have to battle it out for the remainder of the plate appearances. While Rodgers will likely take a little more AAA seasoning, Hampson is ready now and should be set to break camp as a utility infielder. 19 year old Ryan Vilade had a so-so season, slashing .274/.353/.368 with five home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 96/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at hitter-friendly Class A Asheville. While Class A is a moderately advanced assignment for a teenager, Asheville's short fences produce a lot of home runs and Vilade's lack of power output was a bit disappointing. Still, he handled Sally League pitching well otherwise and the Rockies hope that he'll hit for more power in 2019, which would make him a very attractive prospect given his advanced approach at the plate and good defense on the left side of the infield. In the second tier, 25 year old Josh Fuentes slashed .327/.354/.517 with 14 home runs and a 103/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games at hitter-friendly AAA Albuquerque in 2018, showing enough thump in his bat to get a chance in 2019. He probably won't ever start regularly in the majors, but with the ability to both swing it and play in the infield, he figures to factor into the Colorado bench equation this season. 24 year old Sam Hilliard is a fourth outfielder type who slashed .262/.327/.389 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 151/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Hartford, posting the worst numbers of his career in his first season in a non-hitter friendly environment (for comparison, he slashed .300/.360/.487 with 21 home runs at hitters' paradise Lancaster in 2017). He has some speed and plays great defense despite standing 6'5", but the bat is ultimately too light to start and he looks kind of like a Drew Stubbs-type player with less power. He'll definitely be useful in Colorado as a bench asset to man that extensive outfield and suck up fly balls. 24 year old Yonathan Daza is in a similar boat to Hilliard, having slashed .306/.330/.461 with four home runs, four stolen bases, and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games at Hartford this year, missing a good chunk of the season with hamstring issues. He's considered an even better defender than Hilliard, though he's more of a line drive/slap hitter while Hilliard is balanced with moderate power and moderate on-base ability. In that sense, I think Hilliard is the slightly better prospect because he could have more impact with the bat if he makes enough contact, but Daza's defense will buy the bat time and he could be something of a DJ LeMahieu type at the plate in a best case scenario.
Relief Options: RHP Reid Humphreys, RHP Justin Lawrence, LHP Ben Bowden, RHP Robert Tyler, and RHP Tommy Doyle
The Rockies have a very solid group of relievers in the minors, perhaps one of the better groups in baseball. Relievers aren't necessarily the most prized prospects, but it's something the Rockies can hang their hats on. No single reliever stands out as the best prospect, but 24 year old Reid Humphreys is the most advanced out of what I would call the five best relief prospects in the system. The 6'1" righty out of Mississippi State posted a 2.03 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 58/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings at High A Lancaster and AA Hartford, handling the tough environment at Lancaster very well before letting his command get away from him in a short stint at Hartford. He's a fastball/cutter guy who sits in the mid to upper 90's with the former and can generate a ton of weak contact with the latter, and he can use his slider to give hitters another look. His command comes and goes, but if he can get a bit more consistent with it, then he can use his velocity and array of moving pitches to survive Coors Field as a solid reliever. 24 year old Justin Lawrence, born just four days after Humphreys, spent all of 2018 at Lancaster and posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 62/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings. Like Humphreys, he throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, which features more movement and deception and generates plenty of ground balls. His secondary pitches aren't as advanced as Humphreys', but he does have a slider to give hitters a different look and keep them from sitting on the fastball. Overall, Humphreys is probably the better pitcher but Lawrence's sinking fastball will help him thrive at Coors Field. 24 year old Ben Bowden is more of a complete pitcher than Humphreys or Lawrence, mixing a mid 90's fastball with a slider and a good changeup, all of which he commands pretty well. That helped him post a 3.98 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 78/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings at Class A Asheville and Lancaster a year after missing all of 2017 to back issues. Fully healthy now, the big, 6'4" lefty should move quickly through the minors and settle in as an 8th inning type soon. 23 year old Robert Tyler is an interesting pitcher simply because of his velocity. His upper 90's fastball got him drafted in the competitive balance round (38th overall) out of Georgia in 2016, though he hasn't quite translated that velocity to results yet. After missing 2017 with shoulder issues, he posted a 5.10 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 57/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.2 innings at Asheville and Lancaster, giving up more hits and hard contact than you'd expect because hitters could get ahead in the count and sit on the fastball, or because he would leave it over the plate. His changeup is good and gives hitters a second look, but he won't break through until he learns to hit his spots. Lastly, 22 year old Tommy Doyle, who I played against when I was 11-12 in Little League in Virginia (he struck me out in my only plate appearance against him), posted a 2.31 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings in Asheville, using a mid 90's fastball and a good slider from a 6'6" frame to miss bats. He dominated younger competition in 2018, so how he handles the higher levels and more age-appropriate competition in 2019 will be interesting. He also has set-up man possibilities but more likely profiles as a middle reliever.
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