The Orioles' farm system has come a long, long way just in the past year. Very recently one of the emptiest farm systems in the game, Baltimore has added a ton of prospects via trades and, for the first time in a while, they seem to be successfully developing some pitchers with numerous pitching prospects having big years. It's still a pretty average system, but getting this system to average from mediocre so quickly has been a good accomplishment. With the major league team looking so terrible at this time, Orioles fans can at least look to the minor leagues with some hope.
Affiliates: AAA Norfolk Tides, AA Bowie Baysox, High A Frederick Keys, Class A Delmarva Shorebirds, Short Season Aberdeen IronBirds, complex level GCL and DSL Orioles
Upper Level Pitchers: RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Dillon Tate, RHP Hunter Harvey, LHP Keegan Akin, RHP Dean Kremer, and RHP Zach Pop
For the first time in a while, there are quite a few exciting arms at the top of the system here. None have huge ceilings, but many of them could be in the majors in 2019 in some capacity and a few could even make impacts. 23 year old Luis Ortiz came over from Milwaukee in the Jonathan Schoop trade, and he closed out a solid season by posting a 3.70 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an 86/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.2 innings at AA Biloxi (Brewers) and AAA Norfolk, pitching well in that stint in AAA. He's a 6'3" righty with a mid 90's fastball and a great slider, also adding in a curveball and a changeup to make for a full, effective arsenal. With his pretty good command, he profiles well as a #3 or #4 starter as soon as 2019, and his fastball/slider combination could make him a very effective reliever if starting doesn't work out. Look to see Ortiz in the back of the Baltimore rotation in 2019. 24 year old Dillon Tate, originally a fourth overall pick to the Rangers out of UC Santa Barbara in 2015 who was traded to the Yankees in the Carlos Beltran deal, came over from New York in the Zach Britton trade in July. He has moved slowly for a college pitcher and doesn't look to have the same ceiling that the Rangers envisioned back when they drafted him three picks ahead of Arkansas's Andrew Benintendi, but he had a good year in AA this year by posting a 4.16 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 96/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings. He's a different pitcher than he was in 2015, still throwing in the mid 90's but seeing his once excellent slider flatten into more of an above average pitch. His changeup and command have taken steps forward, so now instead of being a high ceiling project with lots of work to do, he now looks like a potential back-end starter or high leverage reliever. Every year seems like "the year" that will determine Tate's future, so while 2019 looks like something of a make or break year for him, we never really know with Tate. 24 year old Hunter Harvey, a first round pick (22nd overall) out of high school in North Carolina in 2013, has struggled immensely with injuries but is so talented that he remains an intriguing prospect. He has never thrown more than 87.2 innings in a season with that career high coming way back in 2014, and he has thrown just 63.2 innings total in the four seasons since then. In 2018, he posted a 5.57 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 30/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.1 innings at AA Bowie, actually healthy at the start of the season but straining his shoulder when he caught his shirt sleeve on a railing in the dugout, getting a sore elbow when he tried to come back, and not throwing after June 1st. He's still a great pitcher who throws in the mid 90's, adds a great curveball and a good changeup, and can command everything well enough to be successful, but he simply cannot catch a break. If he can ever get healthy, he has #2 or #3 starter upside, but he has to get healthy at some point. A switch to the bullpen might save some strain on his arm. 23 year old Keegan Akin had a breakout year in 2018 by going 14-7 with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 142/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at Bowie, using his natural feel for pitching to make his good-not-great stuff play up. The 6' lefty looks like a #4 or #5 starter at this point, but I wouldn't underestimate him and he has a chance to be better than expected. 22 year old Dean Kremer, who has a chance to be the first Israeli to play in the major leagues (he grew up in California's Central Valley but spent significant time in Israel and holds dual Israeli-American citizenship), came over from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade and had a big breakout season, going 10-5 with a 2.88 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 178/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 131.1 innings between High A and AA. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good array of secondary pitches, putting together a good combination of velocity and deception that helps him miss plenty of bats. He has good upside as a mid-rotation starter, though he does have some reliever risk if he doesn't develop further. If his breakout continues into 2019, then the Orioles have something special on hand, but a regression might mean the bullpen for Kremer. Lastly, 22 year old Zach Pop came over with Kremer in the Machado deal and is purely a relief prospect, having posted a 1.53 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 64/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings between Class A, High A, and AA. He throws in the mid 90's comfortably and adds a good slider, and he'll be in the bullpen mix for 2019 with set-up man upside. The Orioles also have have notable high minors bullpen prospects in Branden Kline, Cody Carroll, and Jay Flaa, but they're older and likely end up as middle relievers.
Lower Level Pitchers: LHP DL Hall, LHP Zac Lowther, RHP Michael Baumann, RHP Brenan Hanifee, LHP Cameron Bishop, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, and RHP Blaine Knight
While many of the best pitching prospects in the system are up near the top, they have plenty of big arms down near the bottom, including two with the highest ceilings. Many of these arms passed through Class A Delmarva this season, where I have attended tons of games in the past but where I unfortunately could not get to for any games this summer. 20 year old DL Hall might be the best prospect in the system, having been a first round pick (21st overall) out of high school in southern Georgia in 2017 before breaking out in 2018. This year, he posted a 2.10 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 100/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.1 innings at Class A Delmarva, going so with a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curveball, one which helps him get plenty of strikeouts. The rest of his game is pretty raw, but the 6'2" lefty will play all of 2019 at age 20 having already mastered Class A, and if he stays healthy (major if considering the Orioles' history with Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey) and further develops his changeup, he has a shot to be a #2 starter. 22 year old Zac Lowther was a competitive balance pick (74th overall) in the same 2017 draft out of Xavier, and like fellow finesse lefty Keegan Akin, he has had immediate success in the minors. This year, he posted a 2.18 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 151/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.2 innings between Delmarva and High A Frederick, getting strikeouts at a great rate despite average stuff. Like Akin, he does well not because of his stuff or even because of great command, but because he knows how to pitch and uses what he has effectively. Like Akin, he looks like a #5 starter, but also like Akin, he should not be underestimated. 23 year old Michael Baumann is yet another product of that 2017 draft, having been taken in the third round (98th overall) out of Jacksonville University. Like Hall and Lowther, he's off to a fast start, having gone 13-5 with a 3.17 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 106/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.2 innings between Delmarva and Frederick this season. He's a 6'4" righty that throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good curveball, but the big question is whether his other secondary pitches and command can come along. So far, he has succeeded against mid minors hitters, but his ability to make adjustments will determine whether he ends up a #3 or #4 starter or just a reliever. 20 year old Brenan Hanifee and 22 year old Cameron Bishop were teammates in the Delmarva rotation this year, both pitching very well over a full season. Hanifee posted a 2.86 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an 85/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings, while Bishop came out with a 2.94 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 99/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings. Both are tall (6'5" and 6'4", respectively) and get by more on throwing strikes than on pure stuff, sitting in the low 90's with marginal secondary stuff. Bishop throws slightly harder but Hanifee, despite being almost two years younger, has a better feel for hitting his spots while Bishop is generally good at just keeping it in the strike zone and avoiding walks. I'd consider Hanifee the better prospect, but they'll be interesting in their transitions to High A in 2019. 19 year old Grayson Rodriguez was the Orioles' first round pick (11th overall) in 2018 out of high school in east Texas, then posted a 1.40 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 20/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 innings in complex ball. He has plenty of arm strength and throws in the low to mid 90's together with a deep, effective arsenal. The big righty will need some mechanical changes and further refinement of his secondary pitches, with his hard biting slider being his best currently. There are a lot of different directions he could develop but currently, Rodriguez has a chance to be a #2 starter. Lastly, 22 year old Blaine Knight was a third round pick (87th overall) out of Arkansas in the same draft, posting a 2.61 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and an 8/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings at short season Aberdeen after a long College World Series run. Knight throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good slider, but instead of blowing his stuff by hitters he hits his spots and pitches smartly. He's very skinny and could have some reliever risk, but he's a tough competitor who will work hard to ensure he remains healthy and in the rotation. For now, he has #4 starter projection.
Outfielders: OF Yusniel Diaz, OF Austin Hays, OF D.J. Stewart, OF Ryan McKenna, and OF Cole Billingsley
The Orioles are less deep when it comes to hitters, though a couple of outfielders have a chance to be real difference makers in Baltimore. 22 year old Yusniel Diaz, the headlining return prospect in the Manny Machado trade, may be the best prospect in the system after slashing .285/.392/.449 with 11 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 67/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 97 games at AA. He's a very advanced hitter with some power, great plate discipline, and the ability to get the ball in play, meanwhile playing good outfield defense. He'll either end up as a decent center fielder or a good right fielder, but the bat will play in either position as a guy whose on-base percentages could push well over .350 in the majors. 23 year old Austin Hays burst onto the scene with a huge 2017 (32 HR, .329/.365/.593) and even cracked the majors for 20 games, but 2018 ended up being a step backwards. Ankle and shoulder injuries limited him to 75 games, where he slashed .235/.266/.410 with 12 home runs and a 66/14 strikeout to walk ratio between AA Bowie and rehab ball at short season Aberdeen. He has plenty of power and plays great defense in right field, but his aggressive approach limited him in 2018 and he'll have to tone it down to become more than just a fourth outfielder, which is entirely plausible and possibly even likely. 25 year old D.J. Stewart was a first round pick (25th overall) back in 2015 out of Florida State, but his tendency to swing and miss has kept him from getting to his power as much as hoped. This year, he slashed .235/.329/.387 with 12 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 103/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at AAA Norfolk, then .250/.340/.550 with three home runs in 17 major league games. At 6' and 230 pounds, he's a stocky hitter who generates power from a big swing, but while he is good about drawing walks, he strikes out a lot and that has suppressed his production so far. He's kind of in a similar boat to Hays at this point offensively, though he draws more walks and Hays is almost two years younger. However, Hays is clearly the better defender as Stewart will end up a left fielder. 21 year old Ryan McKenna had a breakout year in 2018, slashing .315/.410/.457 with 11 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 101/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A Frederick and Bowie. He began to cut his strikeout rate while raising his walk rate, and getting better pitches to hit meant he was driving the ball more this year. While he was much better at the lower level, Frederick (.377/.467/.556) than he was at Bowie (.239/.341/.338), he maintained a high walk rate after his promotion and his second shot at AA in 2019 will tell us if he is a potential future starter in Baltimore or just a fourth outfielder type. Lastly, 24 year old Cole Billingsley doesn't really have a chance to be anything more than a fifth outfielder, if that, but I really enjoyed watching him play at Class A Delmarva in 2017 (where he slashed .282/.349/.367) and want to give him a brief write up. He slashed .208/.297/.301 with four home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 79/53 strikeout to walk ratio at High A Frederick this season, showing little potency with the bat but also showing good speed, defense, and plate discipline. Again, he's unlikely to make an impact in Baltimore, but he's fun to watch, plays hard, and hopefully gets a chance at Bowie in 2019.
Infielders: 3B Ryan Mountcastle, SS Richie Martin, SS Drew Jackson, 3B Rylan Bannon, 3B Jean Carlos Encarnacion, SS Cadyn Grenier, and SS Adam Hall
There is a little more depth when it comes to infielders, with quite a few potential future starters and two Rule 5 picks. 21 year old Ryan Mountcastle has the best pure bat in the system behind Yusniel Diaz, coming off a big 2018 where he slashed .297/.341/.464 with 13 home runs and a 79/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at AA Bowie. His aggressive approach has led evaluators to believe he would struggle at the upper levels without some adjustments, but he has managed to keep hitting and hitting as he has moved through the minors. Approach aside, he has good power and sprays line drives all over the field with his long arms, and if he continues to hit even with that approach he could be am impact bat in the Orioles' lineup. He has a decent glove at third base and may be able to stick there, but any defensive regression will lead to a move to either first base or left field. 24 year old Richie Martin was a Rule 5 pick from Oakland, meaning he'll have to spend all of 2019 in the majors to avoid being sent back to the A's. That shouldn't be a problem, as he slashed .300/.368/.439 with six home runs, 25 stolen bases, and an 86/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA in 2018, showing a good feel for the strike zone as well as the barrel, good speed, and great defense at shortstop. He'll never hit for much power, but if he maintains moderately high on-base percentages he could stick as a starter in Baltimore, and if the bat falters a little bit he'll still make a good utility infielder. 25 year old Drew Jackson was another Rule 5 pick who will be in the same boat as Martin, having slashed .251/.356/.447 with 15 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 93/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at AA for the Dodgers in 2018. He has a pretty average bat but is a great defender at shortstop, and as a completed product at 25 years old, he's a classic utility infielder. 22 year old Rylan Bannon came from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, and he's an interesting sleeper prospect who slashed .275/.389/.507 with 22 home runs and a 127/81 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games between High A and AA (much better .296/.402/.559 at High A than his .204/.344/.327 at AA). Much of his production came in the hitter-friendly California League before the trade, but he has a very refined approach and plays good defense around the infield. He looks like a utility infielder at first glance but if he can keep his strikeouts down in the upper minors while maintaining that power he showed in the Cal League, Bannon could surprise some people and start at second or third base down the road for the Orioles. 20 year old Jean Carlos Encarnacion came from Atlanta in the Kevin Gausman trade, slashing .273/.298/.439 with 12 home runs and a 134/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Class A. While Bannon is a patient hitter who can get to his power by waiting for his pitch and crushing it, Encarnacion is just the opposite in that he swings at everything and hopes for the best. So far, that has worked for him in the low minors but upper level pitching will tear that approach apart. The Orioles will have to calm him down at the plate in order to make him a useful hitter, after which he could fight with Bannon and Mountcastle for reps at third base. The talent is there; the refinement needs to come next. 22 year old Cadyn Grenier was a competitive balance pick (37th overall) out of Oregon State in 2018, following up a College World Series championship with a .216/.297/.333 slash line, one home run, and a 53/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games at Class A Delmarva. While the bat seems light based on the numbers, it's not an easy jump from college ball straight to Class A, and it's not the bat that people are buzzing about either. While he's a competent hitter that can put the ball in play, he's a fantastic defender who will certainly stick at shortstop while playing good enough defense to take plenty of pressure off his bat. As long as he can keep his on-base percentages in the .310-.330 range, which he is capable of, he should be able to rise through the minors quickly as a slick fielding utility infielder. Lastly, 19 year old Adam Hall was a second round pick (60th overall) out of high school in Ontario in 2017, and he slashed .293/.368/.374 with one home run, 22 stolen bases, and a 58/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at short season Aberdeen in 2018. He's a smaller kid who is very raw as a hitter, but he's a good defender at shortstop who can steal plenty of bases and he has the tools to get better. I'd consider him to be a raw version of Grenier, with a slightly higher ceiling as a hitter with some punch but a much lower floor because neither his glove nor his bat are as advanced.
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