Monday, January 9, 2017

Mariners, Royals Swap Nathan Karns and Jarrod Dyson


Having acquired Yovani Gallardo from Baltimore, the Mariners were able to ship Nathan Karns over to Kansas City, where he'll fit in a talented but unpredictable rotation with Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Ian Kennedy, and some combination of Jason Vargas, Mike Minor, and possibly even Matt Strahm. Karns had a big breakout year with Tampa Bay in 2016, going 7-5 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 27 games (26 starts), but he took a step back in 2016, with his ERA and WHIP jumping to 5.15 and 1.48, respectively over 22 games (15 starts). His walk rate jumped from 3.43 to 4.29 per nine, with his hit rate jumping from 8.08 to 9.06. It should be noted, however, that his strikeout rate also climbed from 8.88 to 9.64. He dealt with lower back issues in 2016, which is a bad news for obvious reasons but could also be reason for optimism. Over the first two months of the season, comprising of ten starts, he went 5-1 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, striking out 57 and walking 21 over 57.2 innings. It's hard to know exactly when his back started acting up without having been in the Mariners' clubhouse, but from June onward (12 games, of which five were starts), he went 1-1 with a 7.85 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP, striking out 44 batters but walking 24 over 36.2 innings. Notice the big jump in strikeouts (from 8.90 to 10.80 per nine), but also the big increase in walks (from 3.28 to 5.89 per nine). It's not clear whether the injury caused his struggles, or whether he began overthrowing later in the season and that led to the injury. Both reasons behind his struggles point to the same thing: that he is likely fixable for 2017. Karns is under team control for four more seasons. For his career, the Texas Tech alumnus is 14-9 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 54 games (46 starts).

After dealing Seth Smith, the Mariners picked up the polar opposite left handed hitter in Jarrod Dyson, who, like Smith, is from Mississippi. While Smith is a lumbering power hitter with big splits, Dyson is a dynamic speedster who hits both left handers and right handers. He's got no power to speak of, but he does everything else well. He can run down anything hit his way in the field, and his career 85.4% stolen base success rate puts his speed in elite territory. While he may not hit for high batting averages, his .278 mark was a career high in 2016, and his ability to draw a walk helped him to a respectable .340 on-base percentage, also a career high. His lack of power keeps him out of the starting lineup, but no manager would complain about having Dyson available off the bench. For his career, the McComb, Mississippi native out of Southwest Mississippi Community College has seven home runs, 176 stolen bases, and a .260 batting average over 550 games, all with the Royals.

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