Monday, January 9, 2017

Baltimore and Seattle Swap Yovani Gallardo and Seth Smith

The Orioles signed Yovani Gallardo to a two year, $22 million contract before the season, but 2016 didn't quite go as planned, so they shipped him to Seattle. Gallardo is owed $11 million for the 2017 season, with a $13 million option on the line for 2018 and a $2 million buyout. The Orioles are sending to $2 million to Seattle as well, which means that the Mariners either have Gallardo for one year at $11 million or two years at $24 million. This move is important for the contending Mariners, as Gallardo (Mexico) will join a multi-national rotation that includes Felix Hernandez (Venezuela), Hisashi Iwakuma (Japan), James Paxton (Canada), and either Ariel Miranda (Cuba), Chris Heston, or Rob Whalen (both USA). Adding Gallardo gave the Mariners the opportunity to send Nathan Karns to Kansas City, and the deep rotation is now a strong point for the club. Though Gallardo struggled in 2016, he has been a consistent performer for the better part of a decade, going 13-11 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 33 starts for the Rangers in 2015. His 5.42 ERA and 1.58 WHIP were both career-worsts in 2016, and I am not too hopeful for a rebound. Gallardo struck out over a batter per inning in 2010 and 2011, one per inning in 2012, and much fewer in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. His walk rate more or less held steady from 2010-2015, and though his strikeout numbers fell in the 2013-2015 period, his results did not. That changed in 2016, when he walked 61 batters in 118 innings, good for a 4.65 BB/9 rate that is much higher than his highest mark from 2010-2015 (3.65 in 2010). If you want to look on the hopeful side, Gallardo has pitched in the hitters' parks of Milwaukee (2007-2014), Texas (2015), and Baltimore (2016) for his entire career, and the move to Seattle's SAFECO Field, a pitchers' park, will likely help settle down the 1.22 HR/9 that marked a career high in 2016. For his career, the Mexico (and later Fort Worth) native is 108-83 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 270 games (267 starts). He'll turn 31 in February.

In return for Gallardo, the Orioles picked up Seth Smith, one of the better platoon bats in baseball. Aside from Adam Jones holding center field, managing the Orioles outfield in 2017 will be an interesting job. Smith, Hyun-Soo Kim, and Rule 5 draftees Aneury Taverez and Anthony Santander. Kim, Rickard, and Smith all have notable platoon splits, with Kim and Smith bashing right handed pitching and Rickard excelling against left handers. As of now, it looks like Rickard will platoon with Kim, who famously went completely hitless against left handed pitching over 22 plate appearances in 2016. If Rickard starts for Kim every time a left hander is one the mound for the opposing team, it leaves Seth Smith in the lineup. Smith slashed a very respectable .256/.351/.431 against right handed pitching in 2016, but hit just .167/.242/.233 in 30 at bats against left handers. For a contending team such as Baltimore, this is a big issue. Tavarez also performs better against right handers, and Santander, who is coming off of shoulder surgery, has never played above High Class A. Now putting the rest of the outfield aside, Smith is a great bat to have on the team. As I said, he mashes right handed pitching, providing consistent, double-digit home run power and high on-base percentages that will play up in Camden Yards. Last year, over 137 games for the Mariners, he hit .249 with 16 home runs and 15 doubles, though the 15 doubles were a career full-season low. His best recent year was 2014, when he hit .266 with 12 home runs and 31 doubles over 136 games with the Padres, slashing .270/.359/.455 against right handed pitching. For his career, the former Ole Miss star has 113 home runs, 426 RBI, and a .261 average over 1138 games. It should be noted that his defense is below-average at this point in his career.

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