2022 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at Pick #5 (April Update)

Before the start of the season, I pulled ten options for the Nationals at the fifth overall pick. While of course players' stocks have moved in all different directions since then, things have remained *fairly* unchanged in terms of who is in play at the top of the draft. I dove a little bit into their draft history in that original article, so instead we can skip straight into who could conceivably be under consideration two months later. Considering Mike Rizzo's recent statement that he wants to shake up player development in this system, it's hard to say exactly which direction they will go.

I'm going to start by making a note on the three players that I see locking themselves in as the top three prospects. Georgia prep bats Druw Jones and Termarr Johnson as well as Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee, in my opinion, are in a class of their own and have some daylight before the next group. That doesn't mean that they'll go first, second, and third overall, but there's a good chance all three are off the board in the first four picks and it's hard to say which could end up slipping through the cracks. If I had to guess, it would probably be Johnson, so I'll highlight him but leave off Jones and Lee (but if any of the three are available, I'd highly advise Washington to draft him). As a quick summary, Jones is the son of Hall of Fame candidate Andruw Jones, bringing a ridiculous combination of athleticism and polish to the field you just don't often see. A plus-plus runner, he has plenty room to add weight to his frame and already shows plus power to go with strong plate coverage and plays a mean center field. Meanwhile, Lee also shows elite bat to ball skills and this year is showing much more restraint on pitches outside the zone, patching up the biggest question mark scouts had about his game. He also shows plus power and is slashing .401/.503/.693 as of this writing.

Below are ten players the Nationals are likely considering, with their rank on my most recent top 75 in parentheses as well as, for college players, their stats through April 17th.

2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA] (#3)
I don't think Termarr Johnson will be available here. One of Baltimore, Arizona, Texas, or Pittsburgh seems likely to fall in love with him, especially if Druw Jones and Brooks Lee are off the board at that point. But if he does reach #5, Washington should be all over him. Johnson is one of the best pure hitters to come through the high school ranks in years, with some calling him the best they've ever seen. He handles the strike zone like a seasoned MLB veteran, spitting on breaking balls and other pitches he doesn't like while consistently barreling up everything thrown in his ample hitting zone. Despite standing just 5'9", his combination of a keen eye and elite bat to ball skills allows him to take big, healthy hacks from the left side, producing plus power. That kind of bat certainly has the Orioles considering him with the first overall pick. The only questions in his profile are size and athleticism, as the other two top hitters in the high school class, Jones (6'4", 180) and Elijah Green (6'3", 225), are freak of nature-type athletes and Jackson Holliday (6'1", 180) has blossomed physically as well. Johnson (5'9", 190) projects more as a steady second baseman who can make all the routine plays, but won't be winning and Gold Gloves. Still, we have plenty of recent history with defensively-limited hitters going in the top couple of picks, highlighted by 2020 first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, so I don't think that should be an issue. Believe it or not, he remains uncommitted which conventionally lead you to believe he won't be as expensive as someone like Jones, Green, or Dylan Lesko, but he's so talented that there is bound to be a bidding war for his services and he won't come cheap.

OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech (#4)
2022: 8 HR, .352/.439/.680, 4 SB, 14/17 K/BB in 30 games.
Cross entered the season as the #6 player on my board and now has hit well enough to push himself to #4, putting him right in range for the Nationals at #5. He's a hard-hit machine that sprays deep fly balls, screaming line drives, and hot shot ground balls all around the field. Even when he swings over pitches, he still pounds them into the ground with such force that they turn into high choppers that take a while to come down. This is a power bat through and through. The Bristol, Tennessee native has always tracked pitches well out of the hand, but an aggressive approach led to a somewhat unsightly 48/17 strikeout to walk ratio last year (a 20.5% strikeout rate). This year, he has done a much better job laying off those pitches just out of the zone and focusing on maximizing damage on pitches in the zone, matching last year's walk total already while cutting his strikeout rate in half to just 9.5%. Now that he has patched up that last hole in his profile, he's a much more complete hitter and the Nationals will likely strongly consider him with the fifth overall pick, perhaps ahead of every other college bat (of which there are plenty) except Lee. His defensive profile has raised this year as well, seamlessly moving from right field to center field and showing the ability to potentially stick there. If his larger 6'3", 210 pound frame does ultimately force him back to right, he's shown enough this year to convince evaluators he'll still be above average at that position.

C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech (#5)
2022: 18 HR, .380/.471/.778, 5 SB, 19/21 K/BB in 37 games.
Kevin Parada just missed this list before the season, but he's improved is stock significantly this spring despite already being considered a consensus first round bat. Always known as a well-rounded hitter with a professional approach and above average power, he's taken a step forward on both sides of that equation this spring. He cut his strikeout rate from a solid 16.9% a year ago to a very strong 10.2% this year, while also improving his walk rate from 7.0% to 11.2%. Tacking on some strength helped his previously above average power play up to easy plus this spring, perhaps double plus depending on who you ask, and it's playing to all fields consistently, not just the pull side. His defensive ability remains a bit of a question mark, with so-so athleticism and arm strength, but he's known by area scouts to possess a very strong work ethic and many are confident he will put in the work to stick behind the plate. He's pushed to the front of an extremely strong college catching class even if he's not a surefire lock to stay at the position, mostly because he's arguably the best hitter in all of college baseball. To boot, he's draft-eligible as a sophomore and younger than the other college names on this list, not turning 21 until after the draft. If the Nationals believe he will eventually improve to an average defender, there's no denying the bat and he could very easily be the pick at fifth overall.

RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS [GA] (#6)
In the past, I think Mike Rizzo would have been all over an arm like Dylan Lesko, and even with the evolving development philosophy in the system, Rizzo will still likely strongly consider the Atlanta-area righty. In a class extremely short on college pitching, the high schooler has established himself as the consensus top pitching prospect at either level and will probably be the only arm in play at pick #5 unless a prep lefty like Noah Schultz, Jackson Ferris, or Brandon Barriera is willing to take a big discount. Many evaluators consider Lesko to be the best prep pitching prospect in years, an honor he has really driven home this spring. The 6'2" righty sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch the upper 90's with ease, while his changeup is arguably the best in the class with ludicrous life. Some scouts have nitpicked his ability to spin a breaking ball, but he has always shown high spin rates on his curve and slider (indicating attainable room for improvement) and this spring they have been more consistent. They're above average pitches most of the time and are trending towards plus. He's a great athlete that repeats his delivery well, fills up the strike zone with all four pitches, and has some projection left to boot. There is tremendous risk associated with high school righthanders and he recently came down with a little bit of soreness in his arm, so the Nationals' scouting department will be following that development very closely. But if they deem him healthy, it's really hard to look away from an eighteen year old that checks every single box. He's committed to Vanderbilt and would be a very expensive sign, even this high in the draft.

2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech (#7)
2022: 10 HR, .379/.527/.714, 4 SB, 24/42 K/BB in 39 games.
If the Nationals decide that all they care about in this spot is the bat, then Jace Jung might be high on their list. After hitting .337/.462/.697 as a sophomore, he's somehow improved in all three measures of the triple slash while dropping his strikeout rate from 17.0% to 12.8% and increasing his walk rate from 18.6% to 22.3%. He's gotten very little to hit all spring, but continues to show an extremely disciplined approach at the plate and when he has gotten his pitch, he hasn't missed it. In addition to his patience, he continues to show plus power to all fields and looks like arguably the safest bet to become and impact hitter in the college class (again, perhaps except for Lee). He plays second base for Texas Tech right now and would be a decent, Daniel Murphy-like defender there, or he could switch over to third base and be good enough there as well. Either way he won't be winning any Gold Gloves, but it's nice to have at least a little versatility from a top tier bat that can stick on the dirt.

C Daniel Susac, Arizona (#8)
2022: 7 HR, .385/.436/.627, 0 SB, 28/11 K/BB in 36 games.
Daniel Susac has followed a very similar path to Kevin Parada. While Parada was clearly the better prospect at the time, both drew significant draft interest out of their respective California private schools in 2020 (Loyola for Parada, Jesuit for Susac) and instead headed to school. Now after pushing their names into the first round conversation as freshmen, both have improved their stock further this spring and make the Nationals' short list after just missing it at the beginning of the spring. While Parada is relatively old for a sophomore with his August birthday and therefore draft-eligible, Susac is the age of a college junior with a May birthday and doesn't quite get the extreme age advantage of Parada, but he's still relatively young for a college-eligible player. He shows plus power and excellent batted ball metrics from his long limbed, 6'4" frame and has been an extra base hit machine in Tucson, tallying 60 in 97 career games so far. While he's a very free swinger, he makes a ton of contact and has still managed to drop his strikeout rate from 17.7% last year to 15.6% this year, a very reasonable number. The Sacramento-area product has also improved considerably behind the plate as a strong framer with a strong arm. It's really hard to find catchers with that combination of power, bat to ball ability, and defense, so really the only question mark in his profile is that free swinging approach. If he was striking out over 20% of the time, it might be more worrisome, but given the consistent hard contact he has made against strong competition in the Pac-12, the fact that he rarely walks is more of an afterthought in the profile. I would prefer Parada in this spot but Susac has made a very good case for himself.

OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
Long a headliner for this prep class, Elijah Green has been talked about as high as first overall in the past and more recently has endured rumors he could fall out of the top ten. Despite possessing the loudest physical tools in the entire class, the inconsistency of his hit tool is currently leaving evaluators with very split opinions. He showed well on the showcase circuit, but came out this spring in a bit of a funk and swung and missed at an alarming rate if we're going by the context of the top ten picks, then more recently, has righted the ship and looks as locked in as ever. So that leaves evaluators to decide – is Green a streaky hitter who will always deal with slumps, or has he turned a corner and is that slow start just a blip on an otherwise stellar track record? If the Nationals believe the latter, then they should be all over the Orlando native at pick #5. As most are well aware of by now, he possesses massive raw power unparalleled anywhere in the high school class, power he has gotten to against good pitching in the past. Not just a slugger, he can absolutely fly on the bases with plus-plus speed that makes him a weapon in center field as well. And oh yeah, he has a cannon right arm to boot. If you want to imagine his ceiling, think of Aaron Judge with Victor Robles speed. That's really, really hard to pass up if you believe in his hit tool. He's committed to Miami and I imagine he will be quite expensive to sign.

SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK] (#11)
I'll reserve the last three spots on this list for potential money savers, mostly so it doesn't read like a plain old top ten list. Jackson Holliday, the son of former All Star Matt Holliday, has been flying up boards faster than anybody this spring. A few months ago, he was seen as more of a second round type. Over the summer, Holliday showed an advanced approach at the plate, spraying deep line drives around the park by choosing good pitches and connecting with a clean, leveraged swing. It was a very nice profile, but scouts wanted to see him fill out his frame a little bit more (I've seen him listed as short as 5'11" and as tall as 6'1" in different sources) before projecting him as a true impact player. Well, he came out this spring looking much more physical and the results have been phenomenal, just raking against Oklahoma high school pitching and hitting some impressive home runs along the way. On top of that, he's a strong defender with a plus arm with a good chance to stick at shortstop, further increasing chances he could continue to move up. Right now, pick #5 seems just a little bit rich, but he's trending up and by July could be more in play here, especially if the Nationals want a shortstop. He probably won't require full slot value here despite a commitment to play for both his uncle and father at Oklahoma State, so he could help the Nationals go above slot later in the draft.

LHP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage HS [FL] (#13)
There are three lefties jockeying for position behind top prep pitching prospect Dylan Lesko, and they are Brandon Barriera, Jackson Ferris, and Noah Schultz. None will likely be in play at the fifth overall pick on talent alone, but if the Nationals want a pitcher and Lesko is off the board (or they don't want to splurge on his high price tag), they could reach down the board a little bit for one of these three and save some money in the process. I chose to highlight Barriera, a bulldog competitor down in South Florida who recently made it known he would be wrapping up his high school season early to focus on the draft. A bit undersized at a skinny 6'1", he possesses some of the loudest stuff in the class in a low to mid 90's fastball, a wicked slider, and a relatively advanced changeup. Coming from an uptempo delivery, he pounds the strike zone relentlessly and while his control is ahead of his command, he projects to stay in the rotation long term. He really stands out for his competitive demeanor on the mound, always looking to prove doubters wrong. A Vanderbilt commitment means he won't come cheap, but at pick #5 he should still help the Nationals save a little money and Vanderbilt commits have been used in that regard in the past (see Ian Anderson, third overall in 2016).

3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC (#16)
2022: 7 HR, .333/.429/.525, 5 SB, 30/24 K/BB in 48 games.
Cam Collier probably isn't a top ten prospect at this point, so it will take a strong finish to his JUCO season to vault into consideration at pick #5, and he'll also likely need to take a discount. He could be that guy, though, as one of the best pure hitters in this class especially when you take his age into account. Collier should be a high school junior, but not only did he reclassify, he went the Bryce Harper route and skipped both his junior and senior seasons at Mount Paran Christian HS in the Atlanta area in order to enroll early at Chipola JC in Florida. Despite being just 17 years old while playing against mostly 18, 19, and 20 year olds, he got off to a red hot start when his season began in January and was one of the spring's first risers. He's been a little up and down since then but the overall numbers remain great and he's hitting .556 over his last seven games, so if Collier can show that he's turned a corner and is now truly settling in, he'll be in a great spot come July. He doesn't stand out for one individual tool, instead showing feel for the. game advanced beyond his years and the ability to do a little bit of everything. His professional approach at the plate is the reason he's taken so well to older pitching, and there is some natural power here to all fields that he taps without selling out. Though he's not the springiest athlete in the world, his strong arm should help him stick at third base and provide some defensive value. This is the kind of bat that could reach the majors at twenty years old if everything breaks right. He's committed to Louisville and if he heads there, will be draft eligible again as a twenty year old junior in 2025, so he has a lot of leverage. This early in the draft, though, I'd still expect him to take a sizable discount even if he finishes strong enough to warrant the selection.

Other Options
OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison (#10)
3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State (#12)
LHP Noah Schultz, Oswego East HS [IL] (#14)
LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy [FL] (#15)
OF Jordan Beck, Tennessee (#22)

Some second round options
It's very hard to predict who a team will take in the first round, especially in April, and therefore it's near impossible to guess who they'll take in the second round. So instead, I'll take a look at a few names I'd like to see the Nationals consider with the 45th overall pick.

LHP Parker Messick, Florida State (#24)
2022: 5-2, 2.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 94/12 K/BB in 55.1 innings.
I am very bullish on Parker Messick, and while his #24 ranking on my board may indicate he would be unlikely to reach the Nationals, he's ranked #48 by MLB Pipeline, #55 by Baseball America, and #71 by Prospects Live, so the industry definitely views him more as a second rounder. The reason I am bullish is simple, and that's because Messick can really, really pitch. He's an old school guy without big stuff, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a curveball, slider, and changeup. Both breaking balls flash above average while the changeup flashes plus, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. However, the key to his success his pitchability, pounding the strike zone with confidence and swagger while effectively mixing pitches and changing speeds. Furthermore, everything plays up because he hides the ball extremely well, making him extremely difficult to pick up. Despite averaging a ranking of #58 between the three outlets I mentioned, I think he'll be gone within the top fifty picks due to the lack of college pitching in this class and I would love if the Nationals were the team to take him.

RHP Andrew Dutkanych, Brebeuf Jesuit HS [IN] (#26)
Andrew Dutkanych is an interesting pitcher that I think will thrive in the right development system. I'm not sure if that's Washington, but I'd rather have him on my side than not. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touches 97, and while it doesn't quite have elite movement metrics, there's plenty of velocity there to make up for it. His best pitch is a short, tight slider that gives hitters fits, while his curveball and changeup are a bit behind the fastball and slider. Everything plays up because he's an aggressive pitcher that pounds the strike zone and refuses to be beat, and I think that kind of presence will serve him well in pro ball. The Indianapolis native also shows good command for a high schooler and is athletic on the mound, portending to a future in the starting rotation. He's committed to Vanderbilt and will be an expensive sign in the second round.

SS Jett Williams, Rockwall-Heath HS [TX] (#28)
This is another fun one, as Jett Williams would probably be a surefire first rounder if it weren't for his short stature at 5'7". However, anybody looking at the size and comparing him to Nick Madrigal would be mistaken, because his game is much more explosive, more similar to Dustin Pedroia. Williams takes big hacks from the right side to produce above average power, but he keeps it under control and doesn't let it affect his hit tool. He finds the barrel consistently and has done so against good pitching, giving me confidence he'll be an impact hitter down the road. The Dallas-area native also plays a good shortstop and could stick there in the long run, with a strong arm and good athleticism to handle the position. He's also gotten looks in center field and has impressed there with plus speed and the aforementioned arm strength, adding some versatility to the profile. I honestly doubt he'll be available at pick #45 and if he is, it will be expensive to buy him out of a Mississippi State commitment, but the glut of high school shortstops with similar skillsets in the first round/comp round range (Jackson Holliday, Mikey Romero, Cole Young) could push him down.

LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State (#33)
2022: 6-1, 2.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 66/13 K/BB in 51 innings.
It's not just Parker Messick creating headlines in Tallahassee. While not quite Rocker-Leiter, Bryce Hubbart makes Messick-Hubbart the most fearsome one-two punch in college baseball right now as they've combined for a 2.88 ERA and 160 strikeouts to 25 walks in 106.1 innings. Hubbart, like Messick, doesn't quite light up the radar guns with his low 90's fastball, but it's an invisiball with tremendous riding action that hitters just can't seem to pick up (and he's hit 96 in the past as well). He adds a pair of breaking balls in a curveball and a sweepier slider that have both been inconsistent (the slider more so than the curveball), but they flash plus at their best and he also has a solid changeup at his disposal. Despite an uptempo delivery, the skinny 6'1" lefty has improved his control and is filling up the strike zone more often in 2022, dropping his walk rate from 9.5% a year ago to 6.0% this spring. Hubbart is also a student of the game who understands and has worked to incorporate new developments in pitching development. If the Nationals can help him reach his peak velocity more often and get more consistent with his breaking stuff, I think they could have a legit impact starter here.

OF Justin Crawford, Bishop Gorman HS [NV] (#37)
Carl Crawford's son is one of the toolsiest players in this year's class, a notch below Elijah Green but still extremely impressive. Justin has had some first round buzz this spring and may not be available at pick #45, but he would be a great get if he is still on the board. As you'd expect from someone whose father stole 480 bases in a fifteen year big league career, the younger Crawford is a plus-plus runner who can change games with his speed. With a rangy 6'3" frame, he also has the chance to grow into plus power and he's been showing it off more often this spring. My main concern is with his hit tool, especially around offspeed pitches which he struggled with over the summer, but he's been better in that regard this spring and has shown enough to warrant a role of the dice early in the draft. There is a ton of upside here and I think it would be worth buying him out of his Louisiana State commitment, though it will be expensive.

2022 MLB Draft: Ten early options for the Nationals at pick #5

We're entering a new era of Nationals baseball, with the newest generation of fans perhaps not used to picking so early in the draft. From 2012-2020, they never picked higher than sixteenth (Lucas Giolito, 2012), then in 2021 moved up to eleventh. In 2022, they'll be picking in a range more familiar to older fans, with their first top five pick since they made Bryce Harper their second of back to back first overall picks in 2010. Harper was part of an extremely successful run from 2009-2012 that also saw them take Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, 2009), Drew Storen (10th, 2009), Anthony Rendon (6th, 2011), and Giolito (16th, 2012) with first round picks. Since then, the 2010's were a bit of rough sledding with Erick Fedde (18th, 2014) and Carter Kieboom (28th, 2016) being the only two first rounders to make any kind of impact on the big league club, and Nationals first rounders since 2013 have actually combined for -0.4 fWAR in that timeframe.

With the lack of recent success from early picks, coupled with the constant trading of prospects during the Nationals' many playoff runs and several high profile international signings floundering, the farm system has fallen precipitously and was actually ranked dead last by Baseball America prior to the 2021 season. The deadline selloff that year, as well as a breakout from Cade Cavalli and high profile additions in Brady House and Christian Vaquero, helped bump Washington up to 26th out of 30 in the 2022 version of that list, but there is still a ways to go. It's clear that the system's traditional player development strategy has fallen behind other, more progressive systems, and for that reason Mike Rizzo is shaking things up going forward. For that reason, it's very hard to peg what direction the Nationals will go in 2022, and it might be easier to simply list out the best prospects in the draft, all of whom figure to have a chance to wear the Curly W. Before we dive in, let's take a quick look back at the Nationals five most recent first round picks:

2021: SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS, GA (11th overall)
2020: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (22nd overall)
2019: RHP Jackson Rutledge, San Jacinto CC (17th overall)
2018: RHP Mason Denaburg, Merritt Island HS, FL (27th overall)
2017: LHP Seth Romero, Houston (25th overall)

Brady House broke a streak of four consecutive pitchers taken in the first round and a streak of six consecutive first rounds selecting a pitcher. He's the first hitter the Nationals had taken to begin a draft since Kieboom in 2016, when they also selected college righty Dane Dunning one pick later. The one demographic the Nationals have really avoided with that first pick is a college bat, with Rendon in 2011 being the most recent, but there will be a bevy of options available this year that could cause that to change. Given the already-shallow college pitching class that has been further battered by injuries, as well as teams' usual reluctance to gamble on high school pitching at the very top of the draft, the available options are likely pointing to Washington taking a hitter with the fifth overall pick. There are three absolute studs at the very top of the prep bat class if they want to double up after taking House last year, while the college bats provide the deepest group of high-end talent of any demographic in the class. Let's explore some options, with their ranking on my current board in parentheses.

2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA] (#1)
If the draft were today, it would be highly unlikely for Termarr Johnson to make it past the first couple of picks, but high schoolers can be unpredictable with their bonus demands and we have a long spring ahead of us. So if other bats overtake him or if he starts asking for an astronomical number, Johnson could be available at pick #5. There are no two ways about it – TerJohn is a special, special hitter. Despite being nearly a year younger than much of his competition that consists of an oddly old group of top high school prospects, he has stood out with the best combination of polish and power we have seen in a long time. He takes extremely professional at bats, rarely chasing pitches he doesn't like even with an eye for the strike zone well beyond his years. When he does get his pitch, he can find the barrel with his eyes closed if he wants to with exceptional plate coverage and hand eye coordination. That level of confidence in the box allows him to rip off ferocious hacks from the left side without sacrificing his hit tool, giving him plus power despite a stocky 5'9" frame that might not look the part. For those familiar with last year's class, you can imagine Kahlil Watson's build, power, and swing (perhaps toned down just a hair) combined with more than a full grade better hit tool. On the defensive side, the Atlanta native shows a smooth and quick glove that profiles well at second base, though he probably lacks the explosive physical tools for shortstop in the long run. One of the Orioles, Diamondbacks, Rangers, or Pirates will probably pick him up before the Nationals come around at pick #5 if he keeps hitting like he does, but if he slips through, it would be hard for Washington to pass him over. He surprisingly remains uncommitted, so it remains to be seen how his bonus demands shape up and affect his market.

OF Druw Jones, Wesleyan HS [GA] (#2)
Termarr Johnson goes to school just west of downtown Atlanta, but up in the northeastern suburbs less than 25 miles away, we have another talent with equal if not greater upside in Druw Jones. The son of longtime Braves great and deserving future Hall of Famer Andruw Jones, Druw fits right at the top of the class as well and could also be gone before Washington selects. He is a supreme athlete that has steadily added more and more polish to his game, putting him fully in contention for the top overall spot on my board. He has an ideal frame at 6'4" with long arms and legs and plenty of room to add strength, something teams absolutely love to see early in the draft. A right handed hitter, he has plus raw power and loves to turn on pitches, driving them impressive distances with great strength and leverage in his swing. Despite a pull-centric approach, he shows great plate coverage with those long arms and strong barrel accuracy giving him the ability to pull pitches on the outer half of the plate with authority as well. He does show the ability to go the other way with authority already, but for now, that's usually not his approach. To top it off, Jones has strong plate discipline and pitch recognition and does not chase often. As a whole, the package at the plate makes him a tremendous ball of clay for the Nationals' pro development staff to get their hands on, and once you combine the strength, athleticism, and plate discipline befitting of the sone of a major leaguer with some tweaks to his overall approach and swing path, you have MVP upside. Not just a hitter, Jones shines on defense as well, with plus-plus speed helping him track down virtually anything hit in his direction in center field. As you'd expect given his father's defensive prowess, he's also polished out there beyond what you'd expect from most high schoolers. Throw in a strong arm and he has a chance to win Gold Gloves in center field. Jones is committed to Vanderbilt and will be an expensive sign, which could enable him to drop to the Nationals at pick #5.

OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL] (#5)
Rounding out the Big Three prep bats is Elijah Green, perhaps the most physically gifted high schooler we've seen in a long time. While Termarr Johnson is only 5'9" and Druw Jones still has plenty of room to grow into his 6'4" frame, Elijah Green has already filled out his 6'3" frame with 225 pounds of fast-twitch muscle. The son of former NFL tight end Eric Green, Elijah brings that kind of football athleticism to the baseball field and it manifests most prominently in some of the best raw power in the class, easily plus if not plus-plus. He takes big hacks from the right side to get the most out of that power, dropping some absolute bombs that leave scouts adding exclamation marks to their reports. In addition to his jaw dropping power, he's also a plus-plus runner that can make things happen on the bases, giving him true 30-30 upside in the majors. While he certainly has a healthy uppercut in the box, Green stays balanced up there and for years has shown the ability to tap his power in games, making him one of the most famous names in the 2022 prep class for a while now. He's especially potent down in the zone, where he can really go down and lift the ball, but lately pitchers have found holes in his swing with fastballs up in the zone as well as with well-placed breaking balls that dive out of the zone away from him. How the Orlando-area native adjusts this spring will dictate whether he remains in play at the top of the draft or slips a little bit, and scouts will have plenty of opportunity to evaluate him playing on the most talented high school program in the nation, the IMG Academy boarding school outside of Tampa. Defensively, his speed will help him stick in center field, while his plus arm will make him a true weapon and can help him compete for Gold Gloves if he can get a little more polished out there with his reads and routes. He's committed to Miami, but if he shows well enough this spring to be in play when the Nationals pick at #5 overall, that shouldn't be an issue.

RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS [GA] (#10)
The Atlanta area is consistently one of the top talent producing metros in the country, but 2022 is on another level. Already boasting Termarr Johnson and Druw Jones, who in my opinion are the two best prospects in this entire class for now, the ATL also gives us the near-consensus top pitching prospect in the prep class (and perhaps the entire draft) in Dylan Lesko, just twenty miles northeast of Jones' Wesleyan School and forty miles northeast of Johnson's Mays High School (yeah, the ATL is absolutely massive). It's crowded near the top of the prep pitching class, but Lesko has done just enough to provide some daylight between himself and the next tier. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and can get into the upper 90's, with good extension down the mound helping give that fastball a little extra hop. Lesko's bread and butter plus changeup with excellent diving action that can even be effective if he misses up in the zone, while he also adds two breaking balls. He throws his curveball more often than his slider, and while it's still a work in progress with inconsistent shape, he gets high spin rates on it that give it plenty of upside if the Nationals' staff gets their hands on it. The 6'2" righty has a sturdy frame and a clean delivery that helps him fill up the strike zone, generally doing a very good job of spotting his pitches to both sides of the plate. It's not so much of a "wow, I've never seen that before" profile as it is one that checks all of the boxes you look for in a premium prep pitching prospect, and if he stays healthy and continues pounding the strike zone with big league stuff like he has throughout his high school career, he could very well be in play at pick #5. Another factor that could push him up the board to Washington is the poor college pitching class, so if the Nationals want a true impact arm, he may be the best and possibly only option. As with Druw Jones, they'll also have to contend with an expensive Vanderbilt commitment.

SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly (#3)
2020-2021: 10 HR, .342/.384/.626, 3 SB, 34/18 K/BB in 55 games.
If the Nationals are going to take the first college hitter in the first round since 2011, there are tons of options but Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee might be the best at this point. A top two rounds talent out of San Luis Obispo High School in 2019, he instead headed to school to play for his dad and a massive sophomore season vaulted him to the top of the class. He immediately stands out for his pure feel for the barrel, which is arguably the best in the entire college class. Lee is an aggressive hitter that frequently expands his zone, but his barrel accuracy is so elite that he still rarely swings and misses and can do plenty of damage outside of the strike zone. When he connects, he shows above average raw power that he consistently taps in games, with the chance to grow into true plus power from his strong 6'1" frame once he incorporates a little more loft into his swing. On the defensive side, he's a heady defender that can make all the routine plays at shortstop but may be forced to move to third base as he fills out his frame and slows down a tick. He seems like exactly the kind of player the Orioles would love to get their hands on with the first overall pick, especially if he's willing to sign below slot value, but given the glut of position player talent at the top of this draft there's a very good chance he's available at pick #5. If he can tighten his strike zone a little bit in 2022 while continuing to tap his power, he could make sense for Washington as a potential prime Daniel Murphy-type hitter, bringing the added benefit of being a switch hitter and providing better defense.

OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison (#4)
2020-2021: 7 HR, .385/.488/.657, 14 SB, 24/34 K/BB in 42 games.
The Nationals also have a hometown option if they want to go that route, which I think would be really cool. Chase DeLauter grew up just over the Blue Ridge from the DC area in Martinsburg, West Virginia, just over sixty miles northwest of the White House. He's absolutely torn the cover off the ball at JMU, ripping .385/.488/.657 over 42 games to make scouts take notice, but it was his performance on the Cape (.298/.397/.589) against elite competition that really vaulted him up boards similar to New Mexico State's Nick Gonzales a few years ago, though they're very different players. DeLauter is listed at an intimidating 6'4", 235 pounds, and he looks it in the box. He has a very loose, effortless uppercut in the box that reminds me somewhat of James Wood from last year's draft, producing easy loft and playing well to his body type. It's not the most traditional swing path and his pure bat to ball skills are probably closer to average than plus, but he's an extraordinarily disciplined hitter that works counts with precision until he gets his pitch to hit. Despite facing a weaker schedule at JMU, that plate discipline held up extremely well on the Cape where he saw a big step up in competition, continuing to walk more (21) than he struck out (18) in 34 games. This is a true power hitter who is completely unfazed by premium stuff and whose small school should not be held against him. He's also a good runner that may be able to make it work in center field for a little while, though as he slows down he'll probably move to right field where his strong arm will play. To top it off, DeLauter is extremely young for the class and won't turn 21 until October, much like Jud Fabian a year ago. He'll be tested right away with a series against Florida State during the opening weekend, where he'll face two of the best lefties in the country in Parker Messick and Bryce Hubbart. How he fares against those two and the tough FSU staff as a whole will be closely watched, and if he performs like he's capable in that series and throughout the season against JMU's Colonial schedule, he'll very much be in play at pick #5.

OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech (#6)
2020-2021: 11 HR, .345/.415/.621, 9 SB, 48/17 K/BB in 51 games.
The Nationals have had a bit of UVA flavor lately between Ryan Zimmerman, Sean Doolittle, and briefly Mark Reynolds, but in 2022 they have an opportunity to flip across the rivalry and bring in a Hokie. Gavin Cross grew up in Bristol, Tennessee, just minutes over the border with Virginia, which makes him a quasi-hometown pick as well. He's actually a bit of a cross between Brooks Lee and Chase DeLauter in that he combines Lee's aggressiveness and pitch recognition with DeLauter's power and size, making his at bats somewhat of a laser show. He crushes baseballs with massive exit velocities on a scarily consistent basis, regularly driving them out to all fields for true plus power that plays in games. While he is aggressive, his pitch recognition and bat to ball skills are very strong and he makes a lot of hard contact outside the zone. While you might think that better pitching would exploit this, he has performed in the ACC and he hit a scorching .455/.474/.879 over eleven games with the Collegiate National Team, where he faced some of the best arms in the country. He's not quite as quick as DeLauter and probably won't sniff center field in pro ball, he'll be just fine in right with a cannon arm. I've mentioned this every time I've written about him, but the whole package really reminds me of Juan Soto minus his generational plate discipline (which of course is a big part of what makes Juan Soto Juan Soto). Cross has the size, frame, and swing of his Nationals counterpart, and his strong pitch recognition harkens to Soto as well. If he can tighten up the strike zone a little bit and show more of a patient approach at the plate in 2022, he should be in play for Washington at #5.

2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech (#7)
2020-2021: 25 HR, .322/.457/.678, 5 SB, 60/67 K/BB in 75 games.
In 2018, Texas Tech third baseman Josh Jung went eighth overall to the in-state Rangers, and in 2022, the Nationals could help his younger brother beat that position. It's hard to know what direction Mike Rizzo will go given how he will be changing the strategy this year, but out of everyone on this list, Jung probably feels the most like a National. He probably has the most balanced profile of any college hitter this year, and like I've mentioned before it's a very deep class in that regard so that's no small honor. He's extremely patient in the box and recognizes pitches well, enabling him to consistently do damage against strong competition. There is at least above average power in his 6' frame, which he taps extremely consistently in games because he's always finding the barrel. Some quibble with the San Antonio native's unique load, in which he cocks his bat back towards the backstop, but I like it because it puts him in a good position to hit and brings with it very little wasted movement. The overall product is a hitter that can produce 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and hit near the top of a lineup, and there's a pretty high floor as well. Jung isn't a strong defender, with just enough glove for second base or just enough arm for third base depending on which you want to stretch, but you're buying the bat here. There's not much he can do to build off his tremendous 2021 season, but if he can just repeat it, he'll be in play at pick #5.

RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State (#13)
2020-2021: 6-0, 1.82 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 123/22 K/BB in 69.1 innings.
It's a very shallow college pitching class that was initially led by a trio of SEC righthanders in Arkansas' Peyton Pallette, Tennessee's Blade Tidwell, and Mississippi State's Landon Sims. However, a shallow pitching class got shallower when Pallette went down with Tommy John surgery and Tidwell was shut down with shoulder soreness, leaving Sims as the clear leader despite having never started a game at the college level. Instead, he's served as the Bulldogs' closer where anyone who watches college baseball at all has likely seen him. He'll transition to the rotation this spring after the departures of Will Bednar and Christian MacLeod, where he has a chance to really push himself up boards in a big way. It's the most explosive stuff in amateur baseball, bar none, that makes the Atlanta-area native special. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 97, but its movement is perhaps even more impressive than its velocity with tremendous carry that makes it nearly impossible to square up. His slider is just as good, a devastating breaker with nasty late bite, and the two pitches helped him strike out 46.9% (!) of the hitters he faced this past season despite going up against a strong SEC and NCAA Tournament schedule. For the most part, he's relied on those two pitches to get out, but he's been working on his changeup in preparation for his rotation move and the pitch is already looking very promising. Sims is a fire breathing competitor and an absolute bulldog when he comes in to close out games, but if the Nationals are going to draft him fifth overall, they're going to do so with conviction that he will be a starter. He commands the ball much better than you'd expect with his kind of stuff, which will bode well for that transition to the rotation this spring, and if his stuff is anywhere close to being as explosive as it is out of the bullpen, the sturdy 6'2" righty could pull it off. Watch to see how he holds up the second and third time through the order this year to see whether he's worth a shot at #5.

SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt (#16)
2020-2021: 16 HR, .268/.347/.522, 10 SB, 101/35 K/BB in 79 games.
If he wants to go fifth overall, Carter Young has more work to do than anybody else on this list, including Landon Sims and his transition to the rotation. Young was trending towards this part of the draft after hitting .328 in his shortened freshman season (albeit without much power in a small sample size) and coming out of the gate hot again in 2021, but a shoulder injury in May scuttled his momentum and he was still dealing with lingering effects after he returned in June. That second half slump in 2021 hurt his outlook, but he's fully healthy heading into 2022 and will look to build his stock back up. Young is a switch hitter that taps plus raw power in games with a big, healthy hack, with a mature all-fields approach that helps him handle high end stuff. However, that big swing also leads to some swing and miss, an issue that snowballed after his injury when he wasn't able to cut loose as effectively. In 2022, he'll have to not only get back to his pre-injury self, but cut down further on the swing and miss to prove he belongs at the very top of the class. Working in his favor is his defense, with both the range and the arm strength to profile as a plus defender at shortstop. Not many shortstops boast the kind of bat he shows at his best, and the Nationals would love it if he could put it all together this spring and cut his strikeout rate to a tolerable level. If he does, it will be one of the better all-around profiles in the class.

Other Dark Horse Candidates

LHP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage HS, FL (#15)
2B Robert Moore, Arkansas (#17)
LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy, FL (#20)
3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC (#22)
OF Justin Crawford, Bishop Gorman HS, NV (#38)

2022 Hall of Fame: My Ballot

For my views on steroids, see my writing from a year ago. My views haven't changed for the most part, though with players like Alex Rodriguez to the ballot, some small updates should be in place. It needs to be looked at on a case by case basis, but for the most part, any player who tested positive but whose Hall-worthy production was likely not solely a product of PED's (i.e., the steroids did not push him over the hump) will have to wait a year before getting my vote in their second year of eligibility. For players on the borderline who may or may not have made it without PED's, they don't get in. Below are the players I would vote for and some notables that I would not vote for, with reasoning.

Begrudging but firm YES: OF Barry Bonds (1986-2007)
Regular season: 762 HR, .298/.444/.607, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR in 2986 games.
Postseason: 9 HR, .245/.433/.503, 9 SB, 141 wRC+ in 48 games.
I'll keep this brief because there isn't much mystery surrounding Barry Bonds' case. Ignoring the steroids, you could make a very good case that he is the single greatest player in the history of baseball. Not one of the best, but the single greatest. Take away all the steroids, which there is no doubt he used and abused, and he's still likely a 100 WAR player that would be in the Hall with over 90% of the vote. See last year's steroid primer for my thoughts on steroids and why I'm willing to let it slide and vote him in.

Begrudging but firm YES: RHP Roger Clemens (1984-2007)
Regular season: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB in 4916.2 innings.
Postseason: 12-8, 3.75 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 173/70 K/BB in 199 innings.
Pretty similar deal here to Bonds. He's not quite the greatest pitcher of all time, but he's in the inner circle of all time greats and won seven Cy Young's. Again, if he hadn't been juicing he still would be a pretty comfortable Hall of Famer, and it's just time to let him in.

Clear-cut YES: RHP Curt Schilling (1988-2007)
Regular season: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB in 3261 innings.
Postseason: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 120/25 K/BB in 133.1 innings.
Let's get this one out of the way. Yeah, he's an asshole, and it's not just because he's politically conservative or an outspoken Trump supporter. The way he talks about people, the things he says, they're just childish and hurtful no matter where you fall on the political spectrum. That said, if he gets elected, I guarantee he won't be the worst person to be enshrined in Cooperstown by a good margin (Cap Anson played a major role in segregating baseball, an offense I actually believe to be grounds for removal from the Hall). In fact, he's not even the worst human being on this ballot because Omar Vizquel exists. In the context of my hypothetical Hall of Fame vote, I really, really don't care if he wants to be a jackass on his own time, because I'm concerned about what he did between the lines. Voting for him is not an endorsement of his opinions and any reasonable person knows that. Anyways, Schilling was part of an elite group of pitchers in the Steroid Era that really stood out at a time when offense was at an all time high, and his sustained peak from 1996-2004 (3.23 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 2127/397 K/BB in 2007.2 IP) was as impressive a statement as any player on this ballot not named Bonds, Clemens, or Rodriguez. He reached 300 strikeouts three times and nearly did so a fourth, threw over 225 innings seven times, posted teight qualified seasons with an ERA of 3.26 or lower, and was an impact piece on pitching staffs for nearly twenty years. He struck out 23.4% of his opponents for his career and walked just 5.3%. Then we take his postseason performance into consideration, in which he pitched to a 2.23 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 133.1 innings against baseball's best lineups when it mattered most, and this is a pretty clear Hall of Fame resume to me.

Clear-cut YES: LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Regular season: 2.31 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 innings.
Postseason: 10.03 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 1.97 WHIP, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 innings.
Next up we have the greatest left handed reliever of all time, and it's not even close. There aren't many cumulative stats available for relievers but he leads all lefties in strikeouts (1196 to 1169 over Jesse Orosco), fWAR, (24.0 to 20.3 over Aroldis Chapman), RE24 (198.2 to 154.5 over Orosco) and WPA (28.4 to 21.0 over Chapman), four stats I think are pretty telling. Lefty relievers are an extremely important part of the game to the point where every team has at least one, so should the clear cut greatest not be in the Hall of Fame? Even if you find handedness arbitrary, he stacks up extremely well to every true reliever currently enshrined except for Mariano Rivera. Trevor Hoffman, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, I'd argue that Wagner was as good or better than all of them. When you look at that group of six of the greatest non-Rivera relievers of all time, he may be second to last in fWAR because he's a bit behind in innings, but he's first in ERA, FIP, WHIP, RE24, strikeout rate, and a host of other things. 11.2 bad postseason innings aside, Billy Wagner is a clear-cut Hall of Famer who should have been voted in years ago.

Pretty easy YES: OF Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Regular season: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games.
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 5 SB, 108 wRC+ in 76 games.
This is another one that I don't have to think too hard about. Yeah, the end of his career was pretty abysmal, as he hit just .214/.314/.420 (a 93 wRC+) and put up just 6.0 fWAR in 589 games from 2007-2012. And admittedly, that's no small piece either, as he was still 29 years old on Opening Day in 2007. But what Jones did in the prime of his career, from 1998-2006, warrants a Hall of Fame selection on its own. Aside from being quite possibly the greatest defensive outfielder of all time, he hit .270/.347/.513 (119 wRC+) with 319 home runs and 110 stolen bases, putting up the second-most fWAR in all of baseball behind only Barry Bonds and ahead of third place Bobby Abreu by a long shot. So we can compare this profile a bit to Omar Vizquel, who had much more longevity, and I still think Jones comes out way ahead. Vizquel was one of the greatest defensive shortstops ever (and therefore one of the greatest defenders ever), but his career 83 wRC+ meant he was fully 17% below league average in offensive production, or in other words, a liability. Jones, meanwhile, had a 111 career wRC+ that made him 11% above league average, or in other words, a very solid contributor if not a slugger. Attach that bat to arguably the greatest defensive outfielder ever and you have a pretty easy Hall of Fame profile.

Borderline, but YES: 3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
Regular season: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games.
Postseason: 5 HR, .220/.302/.376, 0 SB, 78 wRC+ in 39 games.
Bonds and Clemens are their own cases, and I think Curt Schilling and Billy Wagner are pretty black and white Hall of Famers to me. Andruw Jones is not quite black and white but I'm still very comfortable with that yes. Scott Rolen is where it starts to get a little more gray, though I do fall on the side of a yes vote here. You could argue that when watching him play throughout the late 90's and 00's, nobody sat back and thought "man, we're watching a Hall of Famer!" Maybe in 2004, when he hit .314/.409/.598 with 34 home runs and his typical elite defense, but otherwise, he looked on the surface like a great candidate for the Hall of Very Good. But when you pull the camera back, I think you get a much, much better case than you might think. He was always a high level defender, and from 1997-2004, he posted a wRC+ of 121 or better every year, meaning even at his worst he was still a 21% better hitter than league average over a span of eight years. That exceptional consistency with the bat means that he was always a true impact piece in the lineup every day for the better part of a decade, and he popped for 126 again in 2006 and 2010. He finished with 300+ home runs, 500+ doubles, and 100+ stolen bases if you like counting stats, and I really struggle to see a better combination of offense and defense on this ballot among non-PED players. I won't die on the hill that Scott Rolen is a Hall of Famer like I will for the players above him here, but that's a damn good case if you ask me and it's enough for my vote.

Borderline, but YES: OF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009)
Regular season: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games.
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games.
Gary Sheffield is another one in the gray area where I won't die on this hill, but he gets my vote. He would seem to fit the "borderline case that gets flipped to 'no' by PED's," but it's a little murkier than that. I've read into the PED allegations against him and while I'm no investigative journalist, I'm not sold he did them. Maybe he did, and honestly it's probably better than 50%, but I just don't see enough evidence to "convict" him and leave him off my ballot. So because of that, I'm not going to factor PED's into my vote and instead I'll just go off the numbers, which lean "yes" for me. 500+ home runs, nearly 500 doubles, 250+ stolen bases, and reasonably close to 3000 hits means he has the counting stats. He finished pretty darn close to a career .300/.400/.500 line despite a very long, 22 year career even by Hall of Fame standards. He had four different seasons where he was worth 6.5 or more fWAR despite playing crappy defense, and in those seasons he posted incredible wRC+'s of 172, 185, 173, and 163, so he certainly looked like a Hall of Famer for sustained periods throughout his career, unlike Scott Rolen above him. Between the career achievement and the absolute battering ram he proved to be at his best, I'm willing to ignore the poor defense and say that one of the game's better hitters of all time deserves enshrinement.

Borderline, but YES: DH David Ortiz (1997-2016)
Regular season: 541 HR, .286/.380/.552, 17 SB, 140 wRC+, 51.0 fWAR in 2408 games.
Postseason: 17 HR, .289/.404/.543, 0 SB, 144 wRC+ in 85 games.
David Ortiz is in the same boat as Gary Sheffield for me when it comes to PED's. He's accused and he probably took them, but again, there's not nearly enough evidence to say for sure and I'm not going to hold him out of the Hall based on that. Now interestingly, fWAR does not love his career achievement and puts him more in the realm of Jimmy Rollins (49.4) and Mark Teixeira (44.8) than up with Rolen (69.9), Jones (67.0), and Sheffield (62.1). And I can see where that comes from, because he didn't play defense and even in terms of his hitting he was often banged up, only once playing more than 151 games in a season and sitting out more than twenty games in more than half the seasons he played. Still, there's no denying that Big Papi was a special player and a special hitter. Despite being banged up, he was extremely consistent with the bat when he was on the field and put up fifteen consecutive seasons of twenty or more home runs from 2002-2016, all the while maintaining on-base percentages near or above .400. Only once in his twenty year career, during a ten game cup of coffee with the Twins in 1999, was he less than a league average hitter. From 2003-2016, he was at least 34% better in twelve of fourteen seasons. Add in his playoff resume, which includes helping break the curse in 2004 (he hit .400/.515/.764! in that postseason) and an overall line every bit as good as his regular season numbers, and I think he gets pushed over the hump. Public image is probably the last thing I look at but it certainly doesn't hurt that he was one of the most beloved players in Red Sox history and was not only the face of the franchise, but is probably the face of the DH position for all time.

Borderline, but YES: OF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011)
Regular season: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games.
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games.
Manny Ramirez is a tough one. Unlike Gary Sheffield and David Ortiz, it's pretty clear-cut that he used PED's, so that would mean he should only go into the Hall of Fame if he has a pretty clear-cut case on the numbers alone. Is his case clear-cut? If it's not, I think it's pretty close to clear, and at the very least he's probably better than "borderline," which would automatically disqualify him in my book given the PED's. There's no way to quantify what effect the PED's had on his numbers, and I'm really 50-50 but I feel fairly comfortable saying he would have been a Hall of Famer anyways. There are only five players in history that can match or better all three legs of Manny's slash line: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Hank Greenberg. Throw in the home run total and it's just Ruth. He's a top-25 hitter of all time by wRC+ despite playing in an offensively-charged environment, posting a mark of 140 or better fifteen times in sixteen years. So for a decade and a half, he was an elite hitter at almost all times. Throw in a very solid postseason track record, and I think I have just enough to get over his poor defense and PED suspension.

Literally 51-49 YES: OF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Regular season: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games.
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 20 games.
I don't think a case can get any more borderline than Bobby Abreu. Like Scott Rolen, he never looked like a Hall of Famer while he was playing, but again, pulling the camera back a bit helps his case. From 1998-2006, his high on-base percentages and above average power meant he never posted less than a 128 wRC+, and he actually had seven consecutive seasons with more than five fWAR. Unlike Rolen, he doesn't have a standout glove to back up those offensive numbers, but he was a very strong baserunner that stole 400 bases for his career and impacted the game with his acumen. Really, Abreu made up for never having a true Hall of Fame-caliber season (save for maybe 1999 or 2000 if you're feeling generous) by just consistently impacting the game in a lot of ways, at least offensively. I would feel more comfortable with Abreu here if he had an average glove instead of a mediocre one, but he was enough of a hitter and a baserunner to give himself a very good shot. If I'm going to penalize borderline HOF guys like Sammy Sosa for using PED's, then I should give a second look to guys who didn't, and I think Abreu's warrants a yes vote.

Eventually, but for now NO: SS Alex Rodriguez (1994-2016)
Regular season: 696 HR, .295/.380/.550, 329 SB, 141 wRC+, 113.7 fWAR in 2784 games.
Postseason: 13 HR, .259/.365/.457, 8 SB, 116 wRC+ in 76 games.
Alex Rodriguez is a Hall of Famer, and one day (possibly even next year) I will give him my hypothetical vote. For most of the reasons outlined in my steroid primer from last year, I think he belongs there despite being a convicted cheater. But that doesn't mean I have to ignore the cheating or pretend it doesn't matter, so I feel comfortable making him wait a year or two for my support. That said, the guy is one of the greatest shortstops/third basemen of all time, put up over 100 career WAR, hit 30+ home runs in thirteen consecutive seasons, and had five different seasons with at least 9.0 fWAR. You can dislike the guy and recognize that cheating might have given him a little extra edge but still respect that he is an inner-circle Hall of Famer.

Very close, but NO: 1B Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Regular season: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games.
Todd Helton is probably the first player off my ballot, and what he did from 1999-2005 really is amazing – he hit .341/.442/.621 over 1092 games and seven seasons. If we're talking about the Hall of Fame for a first baseman playing all of his home games at Coors Field, the bar is going to be extremely high, and that certainly meets and exceeds that bar. But the decline was very sharp: from 2006 (his age-33 season) onwards to the end of his career, he hit just .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs in eight years. I'm not going to knock an on-base percentage near .400 in his post-prime years, but again, he's a first baseman playing at Coors. Andruw Jones had a similar career arc and in his paragraph I argued that his early-career success was enough to push him into the Hall, but Jones' peak lasted nine years while Helton's lasted seven, which for me is just enough of a difference to let Jones in but not Helton. Seven years of elite hitting is certainly enough to get the conversation going, but when he lacks much else on his resume – whether that's with the glove or the fact that he never did anything in the postseason (not his fault but also doesn't help his case) – he falls just short in my opinion.

Very close, but NO: LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
Regular season: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 innings.
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 innings.
The phrase "Hall of Very Good" gets thrown around often, and I think Andy Pettitte can be a prime example of what that looks like. The closer you look at his resume, the better it looks, with a very long career that provided a tremendous amount of value to the Yankees and the Astros. He was a true workhorse that topped 200 innings ten different times and 185 innings thirteen different times, and for the most part he kept his ERA in the 3.50 to 4.30 range most years despite pitching in hitter-friendly parks in the Steroid Era. His postseason resume is impressive, too, as his numbers did not dip at all and he earned the 2001 ALCS MVP Award. Though he did allow a lot of baserunners, his peripherals back up his strong performance. Fans can underestimate the value of a strong #2 or #3 starter and Pettitte provided that for nearly two decades, even popping for ace-like seasons in 1997 and 2005. However, aside from those couple of strong years, I don't know how often teams would see he was pitching tomorrow and think "uh oh, we got Pettitte next." Of course nobody looked forward to facing him, but I think his value was much more of a high-level supporting role to better teammates than as a true star that deserves enshrinement among the game's all time greats.

Close, but NO: OF Sammy Sosa (1989-2007)
Regular season: 609 HR, .273/.344/.534, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR in 2354 games.
Postseason: 2 HR, .245/.403/.415, 1 SB, 110 wRC+ in 15 games.
Sammy Sosa is the only player this year to be excluded by my PED rule, being that juicers with borderline cases don't get in. Had he been clean, I think I would put Sosa in fairly easily, but it still wouldn't be a clear-cut case given his low on-base percentages and the fact that his defense deteriorated pretty rapidly when his power began to take off. Ten consecutive seasons of 35+ home runs and four straight with 50+ is as impressive a power statement as anybody on this ballot not named Bonds, but it's a very one-dimensional case. A career walk rate under 10% and low batting averages kept his career OBP below .350, and only twice in his career did he crack .400. A career 124 wRC+ puts him in the company of Bobby Abreu (129), Jeff Kent (123), and Scott Rolen (122), with Kent falling short on my ballot despite being clean, Abreu very very barely making it, and Rolen bringing a very strong glove.

Closer than I thought, but NO: RHP Joe Nathan (1999-2016)
Regular season: 2.87 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 976/344 K/BB in 923.1 innings.
Postseason: 8.10 ERA, 5.68 FIP, 2.20 WHIP, 12/8 K/BB in 10 innings.
I originally didn't put much thought into Joe Nathan, but when I went back and looked a little closer, it's a pretty strong case. For me, relievers have the highest bar to clear, but for a while throughout Nathan's career, he was clearing that bar. From 2003-2009, he put up a 2.04 ERA, a 2.56 FIP, and a 0.95 WHIP in nearly 500 innings of work, striking out over 30% of his opponents along the way. That compares nicely to other primes I've highlighted above, such as with Curt Schilling (1996-2004), Andruw Jones (1998-2006), and Todd Helton (1999-2005), though you'll notice Schilling and Jones (who got my vote) were at the top of their game for nine years while Helton and Nathan (who did not) saw their primes last seven years. It's really unfortunate that 2010 Tommy John surgery brought his prime to a close, because after ramping back up in 2011 he was close to his old self with the Rangers in 2012 and 2013, and that puts him back in the conversation for me. He did, as it turns out, finish fifth all time among relievers in RE24 behind only Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Goose Gossage, and Trevor Hoffman, all of whom are in the Hall of Fame, as is the next man behind him (Lee Smith). I may consider him on future ballots, but for now the fact that he really didn't catch his stride as a major league pitcher until he was 28 really hurts him in that by the time he came down from his peak, he didn't have much opportunity to pad the stats, as well as his lack of postseason success (8.10 ERA in ten innings), means he just misses. For now he's the closer on the Hall of Very Good team.

Close, but NO: 2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008)
Regular season: 377 HR, .290/.356/.500, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR in 2298 games.
Postseason: 9 HR, .276/.340/.500, 1 SB, 119 wRC+ in 49 games.
If Andy Pettitte is the starting pitcher and Joe Nathan is the closer for the Hall of Very Good team, Jeff Kent can be the second baseman. With eight consecutive seasons of 20+ home runs and 30+ doubles, ten consecutive seasons with a wRC+ of 120 or higher (sixteen straight at at least league average), and a true Hall of Fame-caliber season in 2000 (33 HR, .334/.424/.596, 159 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR), it's a very good resume. He hit well in the postseason, too, and stuck around long enough to pick up nearly 2500 hits, nearly 400 home runs, and well over 500 doubles. But all in all, it feels just a little bit light to me. Great credentials, a case certainly worth listening to, but I feel much better discussing him among the great second basemen of the era than among the great second basemen of all time.

Interesting, but NO: LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015)
Regular season: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 1870 K/BB in 3283.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 innings.
I'm not mistaking Mark Buehrle for a Hall of Famer for many of the same reasons as Andy Pettitte, but it's still a fun case to look at. He topped 200 innings in fourteen, nearly fifteen consecutive seasons, and only once did his ERA rise above 4.28 or his FIP above 4.46. A model of consistency, he was also an excellent defender and worked at a quick pace, something pitchers today can certainly learn from. The fact that he had no true Hall of Fame-caliber seasons (maybe 2005 if you're feeling generous) and pitched the majority of his career in a weaker AL Central hurts his case, and in the end, he probably belongs right next to Pettitte in the Hall of Very Good rotation.

Interesting, but NO: RHP Tim Hudson (1999-2015)
Regular season: 222-133, 3.49 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 2080/917 K/BB in 3126.2 innings.
Postseason: 1-4, 3.69 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 53/22 K/BB in 75.2 innings.
Here's another starter for the Hall of Very Good. Tim Hudson experienced more ups and downs in his career than the ultra-consistent Mark Buehrle, but the ups did look more HOF-worthy than Buehrle ever did. He had a three year stretch from 2001-2003 in which he put up a 3.02 ERA over an MLB-leading 713.1 innings and later popped for a couple more big seasons in 2007 and 2010, but ultimately he never quite had the sustained dominance necessary for a pitcher to reach the Hall of Fame in my book.

Pretty clear NO: SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Regular season: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games.
Recent allegations surfacing about Omar Vizquel means he gets to take the crown from Curt Schilling as the worst human being on the ballot this year. Personally, I don't have to worry about them much because he wasn't a Hall of Famer in my book anyways. I mentioned in Andruw Jones' paragraph that he complemented an elite glove with a strong bat (111 wRC+), whereas Vizquel's elite glove came with a liability of a bat (83 wRC+). In an era where guys were bashing home runs over the fence left and right, Vizquel was a contact hitter that still only posted a .336 on-base percentage for his career and never even reached .400. He played 24 seasons across four different decades but only twice was he an above average hitter by wRC+ (115 in 1999 and 102 in 2002). The glove may have been great, but he was a black hole in lineups that needed to produce a lot of runs to be competitive. We can point to Ozzie Smith as a comparison but Ozzie had a career wRC+ of 90 (seven points better than Vizquel) and had seven above average seasons to Vizquel's two.

2022 MLB Draft: an early look at mid-majors (west)

2021 draftees: 76. Top schools: Dallas Baptist/San Diego State/Tulane (5).
2021 preseason writeup (published 1/22/2021)

Top draftees:
1-5, Orioles: OF Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State)
1-18, Cardinals: RHP Michael McGreevy (UC Santa Barbara)
2-67, Angels: LHP Ky Bush (Saint Mary's)
CBB-71, Padres: LHP Robert Gasser (Houston)
3-81, Mets: RHP Dominic Hamel (Dallas Baptist)
3-96, Braves: LHP Dylan Dodd (Southeast Missouri State)

Just like in the east, the western mid majors have a strong candidate to go first overall in Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee, rivaling James Madison's Chase DeLauter on the other side of the country. However, at this point it's really Lee running the show in the west with no other prospects looking like clear-cut first rounders, with the next group of prospects looking to go more in the second to third round range with questions surrounding power output for the hitters and ability to stick in the rotation for the pitchers. Below, we'll look at the top ten for the 2022 draft.

1. SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly.
Bat: B. Throw: R. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 2/14/2001. Hometown: San Luis Obispo, CA.
2021: 10 HR, .342/.384/.626, 3 SB, 34/18 K/BB in 55 games.
Brooks Lee, the son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, was a very well-known prospect coming out of San Luis Obispo High School back in 2019 and had a chance to go in the the top two rounds had he been signable. Instead, he was the fourth best prospect to reach campus behind three SEC-bound stars in Vanderbilt's Jack Leiter, Florida's Hunter Barco, and LSU's Maurice Hampton. He barely got to play in 2020 when the COVID shutdown came down just as he was returning from hamstring surgery, but he set the league on fire with a huge sophomore season with a .342/.384/.626 line in 55 games. Seeing time with both the Collegiate National Team and in the Cape Cod League over the summer, he was exposed to some of the top amateur pitchers in the country and thrived to the tune of a .375/.405/.600 line with seven home runs in 32 games, leaving no doubt that the bat is for real. Lee employs an extremely aggressive approach at the plate, swinging at almost everything he considers hittable. For the vast majority of players, that kind of free swinging mentality would lead to high strikeout rates and ugly K/BB ratios (think Javier Baez), but it actually works extremely well in this case because his feel for the barrel is perhaps unparalleled in college baseball. It doesn't matter what he's up against, velocity, quality breaking stuff, in the zone, out of the zone, whatever, Lee is going to see it, hit it, and hit it hard. He's not just a slap hitter, either, with plus raw power that he taps in games, with wood bats, and against quality competition, coming from a sturdy 6'2" frame that should continue to add strength in pro ball. A switch hitter, he's been known for his choppy swing since high school, though despite its optics he's direct to the ball and can effectively catch pitches out in front to drive them to all fields. Lee plays shortstop for now and his instincts help him perform well at the position, but he's a fringy runner and his lack of range might push him to third base in the long run, where he'll still be a net-positive defensively. Headed into pro ball, he has a very complete profile that figures to hit 20-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages, though he'll have to cut back just a little bit on his tendency to expand the zone because he won't always be able to get away with chasing  like he does against college pitching. For now, he's in play right at the start of the draft and should be a lock for the first round if he even comes close to matching his strong 2021 season.

2. OF Jace Grady, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: B. Throw: R. 5'10", 185 lbs. Born 5/25/2001. Hometown: Elgin, TX.
2021: 4 HR, .337/.417/.534, 15 SB, 33/23 K/BB in 49 games.
Jace Grady did not reach campus at Dallas Baptist with nearly as much fanfare as Brooks Lee, but after hitting just .187/.295/.237 in the shortened 2020 season, he's been trending straight up. Grady was an integral piece of the Patriots' super regional team, hitting .337/.417/.534 with 15 stolen bases in 49 games, then he took it to another level by slashing .348/.383/.596 with six home runs in 22 games on the Cape. Previously regarded as a potential fourth outfielder who could spray line drives around the field, his power surge against elite competition over the summer added a whole new ceiling to the profile. He's a patient hitter that doesn't chase much, but he still rarely strikes out or walks because when he does get his pitch, he rarely misses it and makes consistent hard contact to all fields. "All fields" can at times be associated with a slap-heavy approach, but Grady is not afraid to turn on the ball and shows some solid pop to the pull side. The Austin-area native runs well enough to stick in center field, giving him a really nice all around profile. Evaluators will want to see him tap that power consistently throughout the 2022 season to feel comfortable popping him in the top fifty or so picks, but if he can continue to show enough juice to profile for perhaps 10-15 home runs a year to go along with his high on-base percentages, he could knock on the door of the first round. For now, he probably fits better in the second or early third, with the fact that he's relatively young for the class working in his favor.

3. SS Andrew Pintar, Brigham Young.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 3/23/2001. Hometown: Spanish Fork, UT.
2021: 9 HR, .333/.433/.556, 4 SB, 29/32 K/BB in 48 games.
Brigham Young has not had a player drafted in the top five rounds since 2013, when the Cubs took Jacob Hannemann in the third round, and 6th rounder Jackson Cluff (2019) marks the only Cougar to go in the top ten rounds since then. There is a good chance that changes in 2021 with Andrew Pintar and Cy Nielson looking to be two of the best prospects BYU has had in a long time, though Nielson has significant relief risk and Pintar is, for now, clearly the better prospect. Pintar hit .302/.381/.358 as a freshman then added power to his game in 2021 with a monster .333/.433/.556 line, ending the season especially hot with eleven multi-hit games over his final fourteen. He has some of the stronger plate discipline in the west and selects good pitches, leading to high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. He loves to get his arms extended and because of that has power to all fields, not just to the pull side, with impressive exit velocities to boot and a chance for above average power in pro ball. Together, that gives the Salt Lake City-area native the projection of 15-20 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at his peak, a very favorable offensive profile especially at shortstop. He'll likely stick there with strong feel for the position that makes up for his average physical tools, giving him an extremely well-rounded game. You won't find many plus tools in Pintar's arsenal, but he has a very strong chance to work his way up as a consistently solid regular who will help the team out in a lot of ways. For now, that's a second to third round projection, but teams love polished college hitters that can stick at shortstop and Pintar fits.

4. SS Jordan Sprinkle, UC Santa Barbara.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'10", 170 lbs. Born 3/6/2001. Hometown: Palm Springs, CA.
2021: 7 HR, .353/.402/.536, 26 SB, 39/14 K/BB in 58 games.
Jordan Sprinkle is a favorite among West Coast area scouts, coming off a huge sophomore season (.353/.402/.536) and following that up with a very respectable run with both the Collegiate National Team and in the Cape Cod League (combined .276/.348/.362 in 19 games). He makes a ton of contact from the right side, spraying line drives around the field and looking unfazed for the most part against elite pitching over the summer, though he did strike out in over 30% of his plate appearances after posting a 14.9% rate for UCSB. Sprinkle also shows some ambush power and runs into his fair share of home runs due to the high volume of hard hit balls he produces, though again, that power did not show up with wood bats over the summer as he ended with four extra base hits (no home runs) in those 19 games. At a skinny 5'10", he'll likely always be hit over power, and on the docket for 2022 will be drawing a few more walks and maintaining that 45 grade power projection. The Southern California native has a very favorable defensive outlook with plus speed that gives him great range at shortstop, with plenty of arm strength to help him not just stick there but thrive. The overall package reminds me a bit of Jose Torres, who went to the Reds in the third round last year out of NC State and had a very strong debut in the low minors (.333/.387/.590 in 28 games). The very strong glove will buy his bat plenty of time to adjust to pro pitching and if the power never comes along, his bat to ball skills will make him a valuable utility infielder at the least. I see him fitting in the third or fourth round for now with a chance to work his way up this spring.

5. RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 190 lbs. Born 12/3/2000. Hometown: Anaheim, CA.
2021: 4-5, 6.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 83/30 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Troy Melton was draft-eligible last year, but because he was one of the youngest players in the class and didn't quite live up to expectations, he returned to San Diego State and will still be younger than many first-time eligible players this year including four of the next five players on this list. Relatively new to pitching, he looked strong in the COVID-shortened 2020 season (3.22 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 22.1 IP) and was tabbed as a breakout candidate heading into 2021. While he did make 15 starts and threw over 70 innings in the Aztec rotation, the results themselves were somewhat pedestrian and he was more hittable than expected. Heading into 2022, evaluators are hoping his youth, projection, and increased experience will help him turn the corner and finally have that breakout season. The 6'4" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, scraping the upper 90's at his best and playing up due to his lower release point and good extension. He adds a full arsenal of secondary pitches led by a sweepy slider in addition to more of a get-me-over curveball and changeup. He pounds the zone with strikes, but his lack of a putaway offspeed pitch left him vulnerable to hard contact when his pitches caught too much plate. In 2022, Melton will want to take a step forward with one or more of those offspeeds to keep hitters off his fastball and get away with more location misses, in which case he could really move up boards in a hurray. Scouts already love the athleticism and projection in his frame, and there is plenty of starter upside here if things break right. He ranked #163 on my 2021 list and hasn't seen his stock move much since, so right now it's a middle-of-day-two projection that will likely change significantly before draft day.

6. RHP Devereaux Harrison, Long Beach State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 11/8/2000. Hometown: Vacaville, CA.
2021: 3-1, 1.57 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 42/12 K/BB in 34.1 innings.
In Devereaux Harrison, we already have an early submission for the all-name team. He's seen nothing but success in two seasons out of the Long Beach State bullpen, putting together a 1.50 ERA and a sharp 60/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 innings, often working two, three, or even four innings at a time. His live right arm earned him brief stints with both the Collegiate National Team and Wareham in the Cape Cod League, and now heading into the 2022 season he's one of the more interesting pitchers on the West Coast. Harrison sits in the low 90's with his fastball and regularly peaks into the mid 90's, and the pitch plays up significantly because he generates exceptional ride to the arm side. His secondaries, namely a slider and changeup, are more of a work in progress, with the slider varying considerably in its quality but flashing above average at its best and the changeup existing really to give hitters another look. The 6' righty isn't huge but he's cleaned up his delivery significantly since getting to Long Beach and is throwing more strikes, though his long arm action still causes some inconsistency in his release point. At this point, he probably projects more as a reliever due to the fact that he's mostly a two pitch guy for now that hasn't been stretched out and struggles with inconsistency at times, though he has a whole spring to show evaluators he can start. If the Northern California native can successfully transition to the rotation this spring and maintain his high octane stuff, he could jump quickly into the top two to three rounds, but college relievers have a very checkered track record in pro ball and it might be more of a middle-of-day-two projection if he can't shed that profile.

7. RHP Jacob Meador, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'11", 170 lbs. Born 10/26/2000. Hometown: Burleson, TX.
2021: 1-1, 5.68 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 19 innings.
Jacob Meador is just about as DFW as it gets, having grown up in Burleson in the far southwestern corner of the Metroplex, pitching two years at TCU in Fort Worth, and now transferring across the Mid Cities to Dallas Baptist. Meador has always possessed great stuff and he stood out for just that with the Horned Frogs but a combination of poor command and a deep pitching staff meant he never really got the chance to settle in with consistent innings. However, he spent the summer with Yarmouth-Dennis in the Cape Cod League and shined, pitching to a 3.62 ERA and, most importantly, a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 innings. Now he'll hope that he can continue to combine his high octane stuff with newly found command to fully turn the corner at DBU. Meador sits in the low 90's with his fastball but has touched the upper 90's, once reportedly getting as high as 99, while adding a slider and changeup that are both devastating when they're on. Unfortunately he rarely has everything working at once, and for much of his career his command has been well below average. The 5'11" righty moves very well on the mound and is trending hard in the right direction, and if the change of scenery is enough to help him put it all together, he has the talent to go in the top couple of rounds. His stock could move in any number of directions this spring depending on how his command and offspeed stuff looks, but there's an up arrow next to his name and a lot of area scouts are rooting for the guy they saw on the Cape to show up this spring. If he does, there is mid-rotation starter upside.

8. RHP Drew Thorpe, Cal Poly.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'4", 190 lbs. Born 10/1/2000. Hometown: Washington, UT.
2021: 6-6, 3.79 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 104/38 K/BB in 90.1 innings.
Drew Thorpe does not have the flashiest stuff on this list, but he's been as dependable as they come for Cal Poly and in two seasons has a very respectable 3.65 ERA and a 135/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings, beginning with seven innings of two run ball against reigning national champion Vanderbilt in his very first collegiate outing. Thorpe pitched for the Collegiate National Team this summer and was roughed up to the tune of eleven runs on nineteen hits in eight innings, but he righted the ship a bit in the Cape Cod League with just one earned run over ten innings, including nine strikeouts. The 6'4" righty sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out at 95 over the summer but lacking big life on the pitch. He flips in a fringy, get-me-over curveball but really lives by his plus changeup, and he works through that three pitch arsenal very effectively in games. With a sturdy frame and an easy, repeatable delivery, he has the look of a workhorse starter that could give a major league team 180+ innings a year (that's a workhorse these days) while avoiding trips to the injured list or bouts of wildness. To reach that #4 starter ceiling, however, he'll have to improve that breaking ball to at least an average pitch so he can more effectively get to his changeup and put hitters away, and we saw with the CNT what happens when advanced hitters are able to sit on pitches. Given his gamer profile, it seems like a good bet he'll be able to figure something out with that breaking ball, and if he doesn't he probably profiles as a long reliever. It's the most complete starting pitcher profile on this list, though that doesn't necessarily mean "high floor" just because a consistent starting pitcher that tops out in AA/AAA provides the exact same amount of value as a guy who flames out throwing poorly-aimed 100 in Low A.

9. RHP William Kempner, Gonzaga.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 220 lbs. Born 6/1/2001. Hometown: San Jose, CA.
2021: 3-3, 3.10 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 34/29 K/BB in 40.2 innings.
It's November so naturally Spokane is in full basketball mode, but the Gonzaga baseball team has a pair of interesting pitching prospects in William Kempner and Gabriel Hughes. Kempner is probably just a little bit ahead of Hughes in terms of prospect status for now, coming off a strong summer in the Alaska Baseball League in which he averaged nearly six innings per start and posted a strong 2.87 ERA and a 44/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.2 innings. He stands out first and foremost for having one of the better fastballs in the class, a low to mid 90's offering that can touch 98 in relief and which comes in with tremendous running life to the arm side, somewhat similar to former Oklahoma pitcher and Red Sox seventh rounder Wyatt Olds last year. He also adds a solid slider that can flash above average at its best but which can sometimes lack bite, while his above average changeup plays really nicely from his wide, low three quarters arm slot. The 6' righty has a sturdy build and has shown that he can handle a starter's workload, but his below average control and unique operation likely push him to the bullpen long term where his stuff should tick up. That likely limits his draft ceiling a bit, but there are plenty of teams actively searching for data-rich pitchers who can provide a unique look they can play with, and Kempner certainly fits that profile. Depending how his control looks in 2022 and how many bats he can miss (his 18.3% strikeout rate was just a bit lower than you'd like to see in 2021), we'll see how just enticing the profile ends up looking.

10. C Nate Rombach, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 11/26/2000. Hometown: Mansfield, TX.
2021: 9 HR, .222/.359/.521, 0 SB, 47/25 K/BB in 40 games.
If you look at Nate Rombach's career, you'll really see a story of two different players. He hit .333/.453/.750 with nine home runs over his first 25 games, spanning his shortened freshman season with the first six games of 2021, but his production fell off a cliff once the calendar turned to March and he hit just .106/.268/.242 over his next 24 games with a staggering 39% strikeout rate. Fortunately, Rombach started to bust out of that slump and homered in three straight games against Kansas, Baylor, and TCU in late May, then hit .298/.417/.394 over the summer in the California Collegiate League. So, after all of that, we're left with the question of who is the real Nate Rombach? He's a big, physical catcher at 6'4" with plus raw power from the right side, which he gets to in games when he's going right. I was in attendance for game #21 of that hot stretch to start his career, where he took eventual first round pick Gunnar Hoglund deep on a 93 MPH fastball and later produced very hard hit balls against a hard Hoglund slider and a slow Austin Miller curveball in the same game. He's patient in the box, but he doesn't always have the bat to ball skills to be successful in those deep counts and often came away on the losing end, especially during his slump. It may be a case of finding a balance in his two strike approach between toning down his big, powerful swing and still wanting to do damage. He'll likely always be power over hit, though if he can stick behind the plate, there is enough upside in the bat to be excited. Hopefully a change of scenery to Dallas Baptist near his hometown of Mansfield (where he'll team up with fellow transfer and #7 on this list Jacob Meador, who grew up one town over) will help him put it all together. Behind the plate, Rombach is a bit rough around the edges, but he's a big target back there and his cannon arm helps make back some of that value. With robo umps likely coming in the near future, he has a better chance to remain a catcher than he might have a few years ago. He's also known to have a strong work ethic, which will obviously benefit him on both sides of the ball.

2022 MLB Draft: an early look at mid-majors (east)

2021 draftees: 94. Top school: Central Florida (4).
2021 preseason writeup (published 1/1/2021)

Top draftees:
1-9, Angels: RHP Sam Bachman (Miami OH)
1-20, Yankees: SS Trey Sweeney (Eastern Illinois)
1-23, Indians: RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina)
CBA-33, Brewers: 2B Tyler Black (Wright State)
2-41, Orioles: 2B Connor Norby (East Carolina)
2-49, Phillies: OF Ethan Wilson (South Alabama)
2-50, Giants: LHP Matt Mikulski (Fordham)

Playing in a mid-major conference is a bit different than a power conference like the SEC or ACC, as players don't always see the same level of competition and have to rely on more than just in-season performance to get noticed. Especially before the season begins, many rely on standout performances in places like the Cape Cod League or the Northwoods League to get noticed, silencing doubters who believe their big in-season performances were a product of a weaker schedule. This year's group features as much star power as any mid major class, and we'll start by taking a look at the top ten prospects from schools east of the Mississippi River.

1. OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 235 lbs. Born 10/8/2001. Hometown: Martinsburg, WV.
2021: 6 HR, .386/.508/.723, 7 SB, 14/25 K/BB in 26 games.
James Madison University in Virginia's Shenandoah Valley isn't your traditional baseball powerhouse, as they didn't have any players drafted in 2020 or 2021 and haven't seen a player go in the top six rounds since Jake Lowery was a fourth rounder back in 2011. Chase DeLauter will look to change that in 2022, heading into the season as one of the most hyped prospects in the entire country regardless of level. Though he's only played 42 games in his JMU career so far, he's made the most of his time on the field with a .385/.488/.657 line, and he boosted his stock even further with an excellent run through the Cape Cod League in which he hit .298/.397/.589 with nine home runs and more walks (21) than strikeouts (18). DeLauter stands out for his plus raw power from the left side, getting to that power very consistently in games with an effortless left handed swing that can almost appear nonchalant at times. He's built like a power hitter with a big 6'4" frame, and his loose hack generates plenty of natural loft. He never has to sell out to get to his power so he's always under control, and that power plays very well with wood. Not just a slugger, the West Virginia product is a disciplined hitter that has been in complete control of his at bats in CAA play and continued to manage the strike zone with precision against elite Cape arms despite the big step up in competition. He chooses good pitches to hit while letting the bad ones go, has been unfazed by velocity and breaking stuff, and makes loud contact as soon as pitchers come into his ample hitting zone. As an added bonus, he's extremely young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until October, making him even younger for this class than Jud Fabian was for last year's class. Heading into 2022, he has nothing left to prove with the bat. He's already obliterated CAA pitching, so perhaps the best thing he can do for himself is improving his defense. DeLauter is a solid runner with a good arm that has earned him 22 innings for JMU on the mound, giving him the ability to play a fringe-average center field for now, but given his size he'll likely slow down and move to right field. If he can convince some scouts that there might be a long term future in center, he could be in play at the very top of the draft and regardless figures to go early in the first round. The ultimate projection here is a true middle of the order hitter that will hit for power while getting on base at a high clip, perhaps like a more consistent Cody Bellinger with a bit less speed.

2. SS Zach Neto, Campbell.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 185 lbs. Born 1/31/2001. Hometown: Miami, FL.
2021: 12 HR, .405/.488/.746, 12 SB, 30/17 K/BB in 44 games.
In a region typically dominated by East Carolina and Coastal Carolina at the mid-major level, Campbell has done a nice job lately carving out a spot for itself as one of the better talent pipelines in the area. Zach Neto might be their best prospect yet, coming off a massive sophomore season in which he earned Big South Player of the Year honors before boosting his stock further with a .295/.427/.574 run through the Cape Cod League. Neto will never be the biggest or most physical guy on the field, but he makes the most of his smaller frame and then some. He has a noisy setup at the plate, rocking back and forth with significant bat waggle before employing an exaggerated load, balancing on his back foot prior to exploding forward at the ball. Oftentimes all that noise can lead to swing and miss for other players, but he quiets his hands down very well during his leg kick so that he's always in a good position to hit. From there, he produces above average power and gets to it in games with strong bat to ball skills and good pitch selection, looking the part of a complete hitter. The Miami product also provides value on defense with above average range at shortstop and perhaps just enough arm for the position, and he could be a plus defender at second base if forced off shortstop by a better defender. Neto's well-rounded bat combined with the ability to stick up the middle will have teams interested in the first round if he can even come close to matching the obscene .405/.488/.746 line he put up in 2021, with the chance to produce 20+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages if he reaches his ceiling.

3. LHP/1B Reggie Crawford, Connecticut.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 235 lbs. Born 12/4/2000. Hometown: Frackville, PA.
2021: 13 HR, .295/.349/.543, 2 SB, 58/17 K/BB in 51 games.
2021: 1-1, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 17/3 K/BB in 7.2 IP.
Reggie Crawford possesses one of the most exciting profiles in college baseball right now, which makes it all the more painful that we won't actually get to see him play in 2022 after he went down with Tommy John surgery. Still, he has legitimate first round upside as either a hitter or a pitcher, though it's hard to see him going that early in the draft without a junior year to answer the questions that naturally pop up when discussing giving multiple million dollars in signing bonus money. To date, Crawford is more established with the bat after cracking 13 home runs for UConn this spring and hitting .293/.341/.488 with a pair of home runs in twelve games evenly split between the US Collegiate National Team and the Cape Cod League. He produces plus raw power from the left side with a lightning quick bat and a ton of strength in his 6'4" frame, reminding me a bit of Alex Binelas as a hitter. He's aggressive like Binelas as well, walking just 19 times in 63 games between UConn, the CNT, and the Cape, but he does a good job of doing damage on pitches in the zone with strong bat to ball skills. Given that he's likely limited to first base in pro ball, putting pressure on his bat, scouts would have liked to see him be a bit more patient with balls out of the zone in 2022 but unfortunately won't get that opportunity. If he can tighten up the strike zone a little bit, he could flirt with 30 home runs annually in the majors. Meanwhile, there might be more untapped potential on the mound. The 6'4" lefty threw just 13.2 innings between UConn, the CNT, and the Cape in 2021, but the results were about as good as you can possible ask for as he struck out 29 of the 53 batters he faced (54.7%) and walked just four. He consistently brings upper 90's heat in short stints and touched as high as 101 with the CNT, also adding a plus slider that plays well off his fastball. Unlike most fireballing college relievers, Crawford actually fills up the strike zone well and could have above average command in time, which would be deadly given his stuff. There's some late jerk in his delivery but the overall operation is clean. A team looking for the central Pennsylvania native to develop as a starter will be doing so without having seen him complete three innings in any collegiate or summer outing, and will also have to work with him on developing a changeup. The risk is very high, but the upside is astronomical. He's a very different pitcher than Shohei Ohtani but his upside with the bat is similar.

4. LHP Carson Whisenhunt, East Carolina.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 10/20/2000. Hometown: Mocksville, NC.
2021: 6-2, 3.77 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 79/22 K/BB in 62 IP.
East Carolina has established itself as perhaps the premier destination for talent outside the Power Five conferences, so it's no surprise to see one of the top mid major pitchers in the country coming from Greenville. A year after Gavin Williams went 23rd overall to the Indians, Carson Whisenhunt finds himself in the first round conversation, if perhaps a touch behind where Williams ended up. He followed a strong sophomore season with an impressive run with the US Collegiate National Team, striking out ten over six innings while allowing just four baserunners. Whisenhunt has a very balanced arsenal beginning with a low 90's fastball that can get up to around 95 at his best, not overwhelming velocity but certainly enough to stand out from the left side and it's velocity he holds throughout his starts. The 6'3" lefty adds an above average slider that dives across the plate and can elicit some ugly swings, while his plus changeup is perhaps his best pitch as it just dies on its way to the plate. With a simple, low effort delivery, he makes all three pitches play up by hitting his spots and tunneling them off of each other reasonably well, checking all the boxes you look for in a big league starting pitcher. As it stands, he projects as a low risk mid-rotation starter that can effectively work past both lefties and righties, and in 2022 he'll look for either a slight velocity bump or perhaps try to flash plus more often with his slider if he wants to safely work his way into the first round. Another point of emphasis will be command, which is now solid average but trending towards above average if he keeps on his current trajectory.

5. OF Tyler Locklear, Virginia Commonwealth.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 210 lbs. Born 11/24/2000. Hometown: Abingdon, MD.
2021: 16 HR, .345/.515/.686, 8 SB, 40/46 K/BB in 54 games.
Tyler Locklear brings us yet another big masher, this time out of VCU in Richmond. After a breakout year at the plate that saw him blast 16 home runs with an on-base percentage above .500, he continued to impress in the Cape Cod League by slashing .256/.333/.504 in 34 games and tying with Chase DeLauter for the league lead with nine home runs. A quiet setup at the plate gives way to an explosive swing that produces plus power and some impressive home runs, power he's clearly gotten to in games against good competition and with wood bats. A very patient, disciplined hitter at VCU, he expanded the zone a bit more against quality arms on the Cape but still limited his strikeout rate to a reasonable 22.7% as he didn't go too crazy with the chases. For the most part, Locklear picks good pitches to attack and therefore regularly puts himself in a good position to do damage, and it's also interesting to note that he finished eighth in Division I last year with 22 hit by pitches (plus nine more on the Cape). The northeastern Maryland native won't provide much value on defense and will therefore have to hit his way up, but he can hit the ball as hard as anybody and is a disciplined enough hitter to make it work in pro ball. It's probably a second round profile for now, but if he can show up in 2022 with better plate discipline and prove he can pair that plus power with an above average hit tool, he could easily swing his way into the first round.

6. LHP Trey Dombroski, Monmouth.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6'5", 235 lbs. Born 3/13/2001. Hometown: Manasquan, NJ.
2021: 5-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 64/8 K/BB in 52.2 IP.
If you're old school and you miss the crafty lefties of days gone by, then Trey Dombroski is the prospect for you. Despite not lighting up the radar gun, he walked less than three percent of his opponents between his sophomore season at Monmouth and the Cape Cod League, combining for an incredible 115/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 90.1 innings. With a 2.73 ERA at Monmouth and a 1.19 mark on the Cape, he proved extremely effective at preventing runs, too, which is always important. Dombroski only sits around 90 with his fastball, occasionally creeping into the low 90's in games and topping out around 94 in side bullpens. Instead of blowing that pitch by hitters, he relies on mixing and matching his full four pitch arsenal with precise location. Behind his fastball, the 6'5" lefty adds a sweepy slider, a bigger curveball, and a diving changeup, all of which work well off each other. He comes from a relatively wide, high release point that might not fit new-age models looking for pitchers to get out in front and release the ball low to the ground, but you can't deny his results and sometimes old school can still be cool. His exceptional run through the Cape boosted his stock significantly as he proved he could miss some of the most talented bats in the country, whereas it might have been harder to get behind an 88-91 arm pitching in the MAAC as teams search for velocity. He has the look of a safe bet #4 starter and probably fits in the second or third round, but any increase in velocity in 2022 will have scouts sitting up in their seats for sure. Monmouth hasn't had a player drafted since 24th rounder Anthony Ciavarella in 2016 and hasn't seen a player go any earlier than that since Pat Light went 37th overall in 2012, so regardless this will be an exciting spring in West Long Branch.

7. RHP Sebastian Keane, Northeastern.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 185 lbs. Born 11/2/2000. Hometown: North Andover, MA.
2021: 6-1, 4.09 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 73/20 K/BB in 70.1 IP.
Sebastian Keane has been a well known commodity to scouts since his high school days, coming into Northeastern with as much hype as any recruit they've had in recent memory. This year, he'll look to be the first Husky drafted in a single digit round since Aaron Civale was a third rounder in 2016. Keane has not quite put it all together yet, looking more good than great throughout most of his career at Northeastern, but scouts have always loved the immense talent in his right arm and think 2022 could be a breakout year. The fact that he performed well on the Cape (3.85 ERA, 25/7 K/BB in 21 IP) helps his cause as well given that Northeastern doesn't play the toughest schedule. For now, the 6'3" righty works mainly off a deadly fastball/slider combination, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 96 at his best with the former while missing plenty of bats with the latter, a plus pitch. He also works in a curveball and changeup, though those two are certainly behind the fastball and slider and he doesn't use them as much. Keane is fairly closed off in his delivery and has a long way to go to get back on line, which occasionally affects his command when he doesn't get on time. For that reason, there is some relief risk here, where he could fall back on the fastball and slider and potentially see them both tick up, but evaluators are hoping he can make the minor tweaks necessary to become an impact starting pitching prospect this spring. That would require him featuring his curve and/or changeup more prominently in his arsenal and proving he can locate and miss bats with them, while getting a bit more consistent in the command department would be a big boon as well. There's a ton of arm strength, athleticism, and projection to build off here, so there are certain to be at least a few teams that are very bought into his upside.

8. SS Eric Brown, Coastal Carolina.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'10", 190 lbs. Born 12/19/2000. Hometown: Bossier City, LA.
2021: 9 HR, .294/.413/.513, 11 SB, 37/33 K/BB in 50 games.
Eric Brown doesn't pop off the page looking like a top prospect, but the more you watch him play, the more he'll convince you he can be an everyday big leaguer. After a strong sophomore season for Coastal Carolina, he showed well in the Cape Cod League by slashing .269/.356/.408 with five home runs and 13 stolen bases in 36 games. Undersized at 5'10", he employs a unique setup at the plate in which he begins with his hands next to his forehead, rocking back into a big leg kick while pointing the bat head almost straight back towards the pitcher. From there, he pulls his hands back while still balanced on that back leg before ripping off a linear, leveraged swing. Despite everything going on in his load, he's very balanced throughout and repeats it consistently, making plenty of hard contact from the right side with a disciplined approach and the willingness to spray line drives around the park rather than do to much. Come into his wheelhouse, though, and he'll punish you, with the ability to produce some screaming line drives and more over the fence power than you'd expect from his 5'10" stature. He's also a strong defender whose athleticism translates well to the shortstop position, where he's balanced and steady enough to continue to play there in pro ball. That makes his bat all the more interesting, with the chance to hit near the top of a big league lineup with 15-20 home runs annually and high on-base percentages if he reaches his ceiling.

9. RHP Andrew Taylor, Central Michigan.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 190 lbs. Born 9/23/2001. Hometown: Alto, MI.
2021: 11-4, 1.81 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 125/24 K/BB in 94.1 IP.
You might not find a more consistent performer at this level than Andrew Taylor, who carried a 1.21 ERA through his first fourteen starts before ending up in the wrong place at the wrong time against a white-hot Notre Dame offense that tagged him for seven runs in his final start of the season. At that point, I don't think anybody was slowing the Irish down anyways. After the season, Taylor got two starts in the Cape Cod League and showed well, striking out eleven in seven innings while allowing just one run on three hits and three walks. He's a lanky 6'5" righthander that can run his fastball up to around 94, but he's comfortable sitting around 90 for now. He adds an above average curveball and changeup, with the latter the more consistent pitch and the former tending to pop out of his hand at times when he doesn't fully snap it. Everything works together from an extremely smooth delivery that, when combined with the massive projection in his frame, screams more velocity, and he commands all his pitches very well. Throw in the fact that he's very young for the class and won't turn 21 until September, and you have a prospect who could take some serious leaps forward in the right development system. For now, teams will be looking for even a slight velocity bump so they don't have to report too many 88's and 89's back to the higher ups, and he has a chance to move up boards quickly if he can provide that. There's a back-end starter projection here with a very good chance for more.

10. OF Colby Thomas, Mercer.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 1/26/2001. Hometown: Valdosta, GA.
2021: 10 HR, .247/.356/.479, 9 SB, 53/24 K/BB in 53 games.
Mercer will probably never have another prospect like Kyle Lewis, who went eleventh overall to the Mariners in 2016 when many thought he could be in play at the very top of the draft, but Colby Thomas provides an interesting sleeper and hopes to be the highest Bear drafted since then (he'll have to beat 2018 fifth rounder Austin Cox). Thomas exploded onto the scene with a huge freshman debut in the shortened 2020 season, slashing .333/.403/.681 with five home runs in 16 games, but was more solid than spectacular in his full sophomore season. A trip to the Cape Cod League raised his profile, where he hit a respectable .229/.309/.459 with four home runs in 34 games. He's another potential breakout pick for 2022, with the underlying tools necessary to surprise some people. A bit on the smaller side at six foot even, he shows above average raw power from the right side that he can get to in games and which showed up with wood bats. He does a nice job leaving his hands back and getting his barrel long through the zone, both creating the leverage necessary to produce power from his smaller frame as well as giving him more opportunity to read pitches and limit his swing and miss. The South Georgia native is a bit of a free swinger, though interestingly enough he cut his strikeout rate from 22.8% at Mercer this past spring to a very respectable 19.5% on the Cape. Beyond his bat, Thomas is an above average runner with an above average arm that has a chance to stick in center field, further boosting his value. At his peak, Thomas has a chance to hit 15-20 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages and a few stolen bases, a profile that could fit in any lineup.