SS Carson Tucker, Mountain Pointe HS [AZ]
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DoB: 1/24/2002. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Texas.
The younger brother of Pirates infielder Cole Tucker, Carson is an excellent prospect in his own right and will look to outplay his brother down the road. Over the summer, Tucker looked like a player who was probably best off getting stronger and building up a track record over three years at Texas, but he did the former over the offseason and was arguably the biggest riser among prep bats this spring. He's easily the top high school prospect not only in Arizona, but in the whole western portion of the country between Dallas and Los Angeles.
Tucker has always been a steady player who understands the game and gets the job done. However, he wasn't always the most physical player, with a smallish frame that didn't quite produce the offensive impact of many of his peers in the 2020 draft class. That changed very recently, as he hit a growth spurt and went from 5'11" to 6'2" and filled out that frame well. His sound approach at the plate, which formerly just helped him put the ball in play consistently, now translates into lots of hard contact all over the field. He's still not much of a home run threat, but he's been channeling his newfound strength into lots of doubles and triples and can run into a few long balls here and there. Defensively, he projects to stay at shortstop with a very steady glove and a good arm. He's not the flashy, Javier Baez type, but more the steady, Marcus Semien type.
Tucker has the kind of profile that isn't all that exciting at the prep level, but which tends to play up extremely well against pro pitching and with wood bats. He actually comes with less risk than the typical high school player, though with a solid ceiling of 15-20 home runs, double digit stolen bases, high on-base percentages, and good defense. That kind of all-around talent will start to look really good in the second round, though there are rumors that he could be off the board in the comp round or even at the end of the first round if he's signable away from Texas.
Summer game action
Sunday, May 10, 2020
Saturday, May 9, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Dylan Crews
OF Dylan Crews, Lake Mary HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/26/2002. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Louisiana State.
*Update* Dylan Crews has removed his name from the 2020 draft and will attend LSU.
The Orlando area is always a strong one for high school talent, and Lake Mary High School is at the forefront of that. In 2015, their shortstop, Brendan Rodgers, went third overall to the Rockies, and they have another premium prospect in outfielder Dylan Crews five years later. A year ago, it looked as though Crews might be close to the same level of talent as Rodgers, but he, along with other early top prep prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong and Jared Jones, saw his stock drop a bit over the summer as other names emerged. While Crow-Armstrong and Jones have built their stocks back up out in the Los Angeles area, Crews hasn't quite done the same, and he finds himself in an interesting position for the 2020 draft.
Crews actually reminds me a lot of Oakland A's prospect Austin Beck as a hitter, though he lacks the plus speed that Beck shows. Both are on the shorter side (Beck at 5'11", Crews at 6') but generate serious power from exceptionally quick right handed swings, with questions about the consistency of their hit tools. Crews has a history of barreling up and performing well against top pitchers, using that elite bat speed to barrel up premium velocity and send it out of the park. However, he struggled a bit over the summer, at times swinging out of his shoes to try to tap that power that can often come naturally to him. As a decent defender with average speed and a good arm, he'll probably be a left or right fielder in pro ball, which puts more of an emphasis on that bat.
It's an interesting task to try to grade Crews' hit tool, because he has shown a 55 grade bat in the past but played closer to 45 over the summer. Scouts know he has it in him, but without a ton of defensive value, it's really important that he shows it. His hands are so quick that he can sit back on pitches and wait for them to come to him, and in turn they're quick enough to explode the barrel through the zone and produce above average power without him having to sell out. The hope is that by learning to stay within himself as a hitter, he can get back to what made him such a premium prospect earlier in his high school career.
Crews has a commitment to LSU in hand, where he could go and rake for a couple of years in the SEC and rebuild his stock. The upside is a 25-30 home run hitter with solid on-base percentages, though the downside is a guy who never makes enough contact to reach the bigs. That puts his likely draft range somewhere in the second round if he's signable, though a team that buys into the bat and thinks the summer was just a matter of him slumping at the wrong time could pounce earlier. Austin Beck went sixth overall out of high school outside of Winston-Salem in 2017, though he projected to stay in center field and was trending up on draft day while Crews is trending down.
Some summer swings
Summer game action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/26/2002. B/T: R/R
Commitment: Louisiana State.
*Update* Dylan Crews has removed his name from the 2020 draft and will attend LSU.
The Orlando area is always a strong one for high school talent, and Lake Mary High School is at the forefront of that. In 2015, their shortstop, Brendan Rodgers, went third overall to the Rockies, and they have another premium prospect in outfielder Dylan Crews five years later. A year ago, it looked as though Crews might be close to the same level of talent as Rodgers, but he, along with other early top prep prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong and Jared Jones, saw his stock drop a bit over the summer as other names emerged. While Crow-Armstrong and Jones have built their stocks back up out in the Los Angeles area, Crews hasn't quite done the same, and he finds himself in an interesting position for the 2020 draft.
Crews actually reminds me a lot of Oakland A's prospect Austin Beck as a hitter, though he lacks the plus speed that Beck shows. Both are on the shorter side (Beck at 5'11", Crews at 6') but generate serious power from exceptionally quick right handed swings, with questions about the consistency of their hit tools. Crews has a history of barreling up and performing well against top pitchers, using that elite bat speed to barrel up premium velocity and send it out of the park. However, he struggled a bit over the summer, at times swinging out of his shoes to try to tap that power that can often come naturally to him. As a decent defender with average speed and a good arm, he'll probably be a left or right fielder in pro ball, which puts more of an emphasis on that bat.
It's an interesting task to try to grade Crews' hit tool, because he has shown a 55 grade bat in the past but played closer to 45 over the summer. Scouts know he has it in him, but without a ton of defensive value, it's really important that he shows it. His hands are so quick that he can sit back on pitches and wait for them to come to him, and in turn they're quick enough to explode the barrel through the zone and produce above average power without him having to sell out. The hope is that by learning to stay within himself as a hitter, he can get back to what made him such a premium prospect earlier in his high school career.
Crews has a commitment to LSU in hand, where he could go and rake for a couple of years in the SEC and rebuild his stock. The upside is a 25-30 home run hitter with solid on-base percentages, though the downside is a guy who never makes enough contact to reach the bigs. That puts his likely draft range somewhere in the second round if he's signable, though a team that buys into the bat and thinks the summer was just a matter of him slumping at the wrong time could pounce earlier. Austin Beck went sixth overall out of high school outside of Winston-Salem in 2017, though he projected to stay in center field and was trending up on draft day while Crews is trending down.
Some summer swings
Summer game action
2020 Draft Profile: Jared Shuster
LHP Jared Shuster, Wake Forest
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/3/1998.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 3.76 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 43/4 K/BB in 26.1 IP
A year ago, Shuster wasn't much of a pro prospect. With average stuff and average command, he put up a 6.49 ERA as a sophomore at Wake Forest, though his 94 strikeouts in 68 innings were at least a good thing to see. His great changeup that helped him rack up all those strikeouts earned him an invitation to the elite Cape Cod League, where he dramatically honed his command and finished with a 1.36 ERA and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings. His fastball still hovered around 90 though, and he remained much more of a day two prospect than a day one guy. That changed this spring, when he added four miles per hour to his fastball and posted an exceptional 43/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 26.1 innings. Though he was knocked around for six runs against Long Beach State on February 22nd, he bounced back two starts later to end his college career with seven innings of one run ball on just four hits, one walk, and thirteen strikeouts against a very tough Louisville lineup.
With his newfound velocity, Shuster now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has climbed as high as 97, which is great to see from a lefty. His changeup is his main weapon and it always has been, right up there with Asa Lacy's and Logan Allen's as arguably the best lefty changeup in the class. Coming in with low 80's velocity, it fades at the last second and just never seems to reach the plate – at least, it seems that way from the batters box. The one part of his game that is yet to really leap forward is his slider. It's not a bad pitch, per se, but he has yet to really develop a strong feel for it as a true put-away pitch. It can firm up at times or get loopy at others, but he can rattle off some pretty good ones and the hope is that pro coaching can get it to a 50 or a 55 grade more consistently.
Over the summer, Shuster found the strike zone and has been pounding it ever since, with enough time under his belt throwing at this level (59.1 innings between the Cape and the 2020 season with a 79/9 K/BB) that it's safe to put above average command grades on him. That, combined with a durable 6'3" frame and his lefthandedness, gives him more than enough starter's traits to succeed at the next level. His delivery can get a little rigid with a low elbow and he's relatively old for a college junior, turning 22 in August, but that's nitpicking. The main thing he needs to do to become a mid-rotation starter is to get more consistent with the breaking ball, though he could potentially succeed as a #4/#5 starter even if he doesn't.
With the way Shuster has been trending, with the command, then the velocity, spiking up, who's to say the slider can't be next? College lefties are highly sought after, and Shuster has more than enough positives in his profile to overcome a 6.17 career ERA at Wake Forest. He probably fits somewhere in the second round, but he's exactly the kind of pitcher to be a surprise comp round pick. There's #3 starter upside here, and he's well on his way to realizing that potential already.
2020 start vs Long Beach State (home plate view)
2020 start vs Louisville (CF view)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/3/1998.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 3.76 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 43/4 K/BB in 26.1 IP
A year ago, Shuster wasn't much of a pro prospect. With average stuff and average command, he put up a 6.49 ERA as a sophomore at Wake Forest, though his 94 strikeouts in 68 innings were at least a good thing to see. His great changeup that helped him rack up all those strikeouts earned him an invitation to the elite Cape Cod League, where he dramatically honed his command and finished with a 1.36 ERA and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings. His fastball still hovered around 90 though, and he remained much more of a day two prospect than a day one guy. That changed this spring, when he added four miles per hour to his fastball and posted an exceptional 43/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 26.1 innings. Though he was knocked around for six runs against Long Beach State on February 22nd, he bounced back two starts later to end his college career with seven innings of one run ball on just four hits, one walk, and thirteen strikeouts against a very tough Louisville lineup.
With his newfound velocity, Shuster now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has climbed as high as 97, which is great to see from a lefty. His changeup is his main weapon and it always has been, right up there with Asa Lacy's and Logan Allen's as arguably the best lefty changeup in the class. Coming in with low 80's velocity, it fades at the last second and just never seems to reach the plate – at least, it seems that way from the batters box. The one part of his game that is yet to really leap forward is his slider. It's not a bad pitch, per se, but he has yet to really develop a strong feel for it as a true put-away pitch. It can firm up at times or get loopy at others, but he can rattle off some pretty good ones and the hope is that pro coaching can get it to a 50 or a 55 grade more consistently.
Over the summer, Shuster found the strike zone and has been pounding it ever since, with enough time under his belt throwing at this level (59.1 innings between the Cape and the 2020 season with a 79/9 K/BB) that it's safe to put above average command grades on him. That, combined with a durable 6'3" frame and his lefthandedness, gives him more than enough starter's traits to succeed at the next level. His delivery can get a little rigid with a low elbow and he's relatively old for a college junior, turning 22 in August, but that's nitpicking. The main thing he needs to do to become a mid-rotation starter is to get more consistent with the breaking ball, though he could potentially succeed as a #4/#5 starter even if he doesn't.
With the way Shuster has been trending, with the command, then the velocity, spiking up, who's to say the slider can't be next? College lefties are highly sought after, and Shuster has more than enough positives in his profile to overcome a 6.17 career ERA at Wake Forest. He probably fits somewhere in the second round, but he's exactly the kind of pitcher to be a surprise comp round pick. There's #3 starter upside here, and he's well on his way to realizing that potential already.
2020 start vs Long Beach State (home plate view)
2020 start vs Louisville (CF view)
Friday, May 8, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Hunter Barnhart
RHP Hunter Barnhart, St. Joseph HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/14/2002. Commitment: Arizona State
There wasn't a lot of time for pop-up prospects to emerge this year, but Hunter Barnhart managed to turn a lot of heads during the short season due to a nice velocity spike. He attended Paso Robles High School in California for three years, then transferred to private school in Santa Maria about an hour to the south for his senior year. Heading into the season, he was seen as a pitchability guy, sitting around 90 with his fastball with good command, but the velocity is up this year and he's much more of a complete prospect, making it look less and less likely he'll make it to Arizona State.
This spring, Barnhart sat in the low 90's, which really rounds out his profile well. The curve has always been his best pitch, with great 12-6 action that can bring it from the top of the zone down to the bottom (see it here), and he adds in a decent changeup. To bring put it all together, Barnhart is an advanced strike thrower with a workhorse 6'3" frame that he reportedly had in much better shape in 2020. He has a nice, loose arm that helped bring about the velocity jump, and it bodes well to even more velocity down the road, where he could get into the mid 90's more often.
There's a lot to like in Barnhart's profile with relatively few weaknesses, and he's worked his way from more of a fifth round projection into a possible day one selection if he's signable. He could go as high as the early second round in that case. The two main downsides to Barnhart's profile are that he's a high school right handed pitcher, traditionally one of the weaker demographics, and that he doesn't possess an advanced changeup. Neither of those are overly concerning, as his command plays some of that risk down and projecting high school changeups is often nothing more than a crapshoot anyways. The ceiling is probably that of a mid-rotation starter, and he could significantly boost his stock with a strong run at Arizona State.
Some curveballs from 2020
Summer action before the velocity spike
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/14/2002. Commitment: Arizona State
There wasn't a lot of time for pop-up prospects to emerge this year, but Hunter Barnhart managed to turn a lot of heads during the short season due to a nice velocity spike. He attended Paso Robles High School in California for three years, then transferred to private school in Santa Maria about an hour to the south for his senior year. Heading into the season, he was seen as a pitchability guy, sitting around 90 with his fastball with good command, but the velocity is up this year and he's much more of a complete prospect, making it look less and less likely he'll make it to Arizona State.
This spring, Barnhart sat in the low 90's, which really rounds out his profile well. The curve has always been his best pitch, with great 12-6 action that can bring it from the top of the zone down to the bottom (see it here), and he adds in a decent changeup. To bring put it all together, Barnhart is an advanced strike thrower with a workhorse 6'3" frame that he reportedly had in much better shape in 2020. He has a nice, loose arm that helped bring about the velocity jump, and it bodes well to even more velocity down the road, where he could get into the mid 90's more often.
There's a lot to like in Barnhart's profile with relatively few weaknesses, and he's worked his way from more of a fifth round projection into a possible day one selection if he's signable. He could go as high as the early second round in that case. The two main downsides to Barnhart's profile are that he's a high school right handed pitcher, traditionally one of the weaker demographics, and that he doesn't possess an advanced changeup. Neither of those are overly concerning, as his command plays some of that risk down and projecting high school changeups is often nothing more than a crapshoot anyways. The ceiling is probably that of a mid-rotation starter, and he could significantly boost his stock with a strong run at Arizona State.
Some curveballs from 2020
Summer action before the velocity spike
2020 Draft Profile: Logan Allen
LHP Logan Allen, Florida International
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/5/1998.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.45 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 41/6 K/BB in 25.2 IP
FIU's Logan Allen actually draws a lot of parallels to the Indians' Logan Allen, who is a different person despite also being a left handed pitcher from Florida in his early 20's with a great changeup but without overpowering fastball velocity. This Logan Allen, despite not throwing all that hard, has gotten better and better during his time in Miami. After a strong freshman season, Allen really put himself on the map in 2019, when he posted a 3.11 ERA and a 120/25 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, then dominated the elite Cape Cod League with 15 shutout innings of work (plus two unearned runs), striking out 24 and walking just three. He was as good as ever in his four start 2020 season, putting up a 2.45 ERA and a wicked 41/6 strikeout to walk ratio, including a fantastic start against George Mason on February 21st in which he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and thirteen strikeouts. With that, he finds himself among the top five college lefties in the draft, which is always a heavily sought-after demographic.
Allen is a pitcher through and through. He's not going to overpower you with big stuff, but he'll locate and mix pitches to keep you off balance. His arsenal starts with a fastball around 90, but it plays up not only due to command but due to some nice late finish down in the zone and some riding life up in the zone. His curveball has big, two-plane break that enables him to run it diagonally across the zone or bring it back onto the corner, though it plays closer to average because it lacks that tight, late bite. Lastly, his best pitch is his changeup, as he tunnels it well with his fastball and it just seems to fall off to the side at the last second. Of course, everything plays up due to his above average command, an he knows how to control the strike zone and dictate at bats to keep hitters on his terms, not the other way around.
The ceiling here is pretty limited, but the floor is high. He's not the biggest guy in the world at six feet tall, and he doesn't figure to add much velocity going forward. The fastball might creep more consistently into the low 90's, but that's probably about it. He'll always have a relatively small margin for error in that velocity band, but he's more than capable of staying within it with room to spare. It's probably a #3 starter ceiling with a more realistic #4/#5 outlook, but he's had such consistent success even against advanced hitters that it's hard to bet against him. Due to the depth of college pitching in this draft, he seems to fit pretty firmly into that second round picture. He's also a relatively accomplished hitter who has slashed .297/.362/.410 with six home runs over his three years at FIU, including a pinch hit home run against Pepperdine on March 1st, but his future is definitely on the mound. If the NL hasn't already adopted the DH by the time he reaches the majors, he could be one of the better-hitting pitchers out there.
2020 start vs Fordham
2019 Cape Cod footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/5/1998.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.45 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 41/6 K/BB in 25.2 IP
FIU's Logan Allen actually draws a lot of parallels to the Indians' Logan Allen, who is a different person despite also being a left handed pitcher from Florida in his early 20's with a great changeup but without overpowering fastball velocity. This Logan Allen, despite not throwing all that hard, has gotten better and better during his time in Miami. After a strong freshman season, Allen really put himself on the map in 2019, when he posted a 3.11 ERA and a 120/25 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, then dominated the elite Cape Cod League with 15 shutout innings of work (plus two unearned runs), striking out 24 and walking just three. He was as good as ever in his four start 2020 season, putting up a 2.45 ERA and a wicked 41/6 strikeout to walk ratio, including a fantastic start against George Mason on February 21st in which he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and thirteen strikeouts. With that, he finds himself among the top five college lefties in the draft, which is always a heavily sought-after demographic.
Allen is a pitcher through and through. He's not going to overpower you with big stuff, but he'll locate and mix pitches to keep you off balance. His arsenal starts with a fastball around 90, but it plays up not only due to command but due to some nice late finish down in the zone and some riding life up in the zone. His curveball has big, two-plane break that enables him to run it diagonally across the zone or bring it back onto the corner, though it plays closer to average because it lacks that tight, late bite. Lastly, his best pitch is his changeup, as he tunnels it well with his fastball and it just seems to fall off to the side at the last second. Of course, everything plays up due to his above average command, an he knows how to control the strike zone and dictate at bats to keep hitters on his terms, not the other way around.
The ceiling here is pretty limited, but the floor is high. He's not the biggest guy in the world at six feet tall, and he doesn't figure to add much velocity going forward. The fastball might creep more consistently into the low 90's, but that's probably about it. He'll always have a relatively small margin for error in that velocity band, but he's more than capable of staying within it with room to spare. It's probably a #3 starter ceiling with a more realistic #4/#5 outlook, but he's had such consistent success even against advanced hitters that it's hard to bet against him. Due to the depth of college pitching in this draft, he seems to fit pretty firmly into that second round picture. He's also a relatively accomplished hitter who has slashed .297/.362/.410 with six home runs over his three years at FIU, including a pinch hit home run against Pepperdine on March 1st, but his future is definitely on the mound. If the NL hasn't already adopted the DH by the time he reaches the majors, he could be one of the better-hitting pitchers out there.
2020 start vs Fordham
2019 Cape Cod footage
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Isaiah Greene
OF Isaiah Greene, Corona HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/29/2001. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Missouri.
Isaiah Greene wasn't very well known for most of his high school career despite playing his games in Southern California, but a huge summer really changed that. Though he got off to a bit of a slow start in the spring, he remains part of a very strong group of Los Angeles-area high school outfielders alongside Pete Crow-Armstrong, Petey Halpin, Jake Vogel, and others, and he could be the second one off the board after Crow-Armstrong.
Greene is contact over power, making very consistent hard contact with a sweet left handed swing that's one of the smoother hacks in the high school class. He does a great job of leaving his hands back as he waits on the pitch, then whips the barrel forward very efficiently into and through the strike zone. Combined with his ability to recognize pitches and use the whole field, this gives him one of the better hit tools in the high school class. There's not a ton of present power, though he has the ability to make his below average raw power play up in games and he could grow into average or slightly above average game power down the line as he fills out his 6'1" frame and adds loft to his swing. Greene is also a plus runner, one who should be able to stick in center field, though he's not the most refined defender and relies on his raw speed more than anything else to make plays.
There is a lot to like in Greene's profile, with a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season, good on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases. He's a bit old for the class with an August birthday, but he's advanced enough with the bat that that's not really an issue. How high he goes in the draft will depend on how rock-solid scouts think the hit tool is, combined with the amount of power they think he projects for. He's likely a fit for the second round if he's signable away from Missouri, which he probably will be on day one.
Some Twitter hacks from this spring
Batting practice from 2018
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/29/2001. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Missouri.
Isaiah Greene wasn't very well known for most of his high school career despite playing his games in Southern California, but a huge summer really changed that. Though he got off to a bit of a slow start in the spring, he remains part of a very strong group of Los Angeles-area high school outfielders alongside Pete Crow-Armstrong, Petey Halpin, Jake Vogel, and others, and he could be the second one off the board after Crow-Armstrong.
Greene is contact over power, making very consistent hard contact with a sweet left handed swing that's one of the smoother hacks in the high school class. He does a great job of leaving his hands back as he waits on the pitch, then whips the barrel forward very efficiently into and through the strike zone. Combined with his ability to recognize pitches and use the whole field, this gives him one of the better hit tools in the high school class. There's not a ton of present power, though he has the ability to make his below average raw power play up in games and he could grow into average or slightly above average game power down the line as he fills out his 6'1" frame and adds loft to his swing. Greene is also a plus runner, one who should be able to stick in center field, though he's not the most refined defender and relies on his raw speed more than anything else to make plays.
There is a lot to like in Greene's profile, with a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season, good on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases. He's a bit old for the class with an August birthday, but he's advanced enough with the bat that that's not really an issue. How high he goes in the draft will depend on how rock-solid scouts think the hit tool is, combined with the amount of power they think he projects for. He's likely a fit for the second round if he's signable away from Missouri, which he probably will be on day one.
Some Twitter hacks from this spring
Batting practice from 2018
2020 Draft Profile: Ryan Hagenow
RHP Ryan Hagenow, Farragut HS [TN]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/11/2002. Commitment: Kentucky.
I find Hagenow to be one of the most interesting pitchers in this high school class. He ranks 69th on MLB Pipeline and 185th on the Baseball America 500, but I just get a good feeling about him and I'm taking a bit of a leap of faith by ranking him higher. I did something similar with high school lefty Asa Lacy in 2017, and that one worked out extremely well, so I'm hoping to have similar success with Hagenow. Coming from the Knoxville area, he's the top high school pitcher in Tennessee and the number two high school prospect in the state behind likely first rounder and Nashville-area outfielder Robert Hassell.
Hagenow is much more about projection than present ability, and it's clear that he'll take a bit longer to develop than some other arms. For now, he sits around 90 with his fastball, though he has reached as high as 93 on a few occasions and doesn't throw with a ton of effort. The pitch plays up because of its running action and he also gets some deception on it with his crossfire delivery and long arms. His slider and changeup need significant refinement, though he has shown really good versions of both in the past. His command, like everything else, needs refinement, but he generally does a good job of throwing strikes and staying around the zone.
The real draw here is what Hagenow could be. At a skinny 6'5", he has plenty of room to fill out his frame, and he's an athletic enough player to get the most out of it. His mechanics could also be cleaned up a little bit, which in this case presents a great opportunity to help him drive into his pitches a bit more and get more consistent with that offspeed stuff. Between the frame and the delivery, there's a good chance he adds as much as five or more miles per hour to his fastball and sits routinely in the mid 90's down the line. With the movement and deception he already has on it, it could become a true plus pitch in time. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for a high school senior and nearly a year younger than Hassell, his Volunteer State counterpart.
The projection in Hagenow's profile is extremely enticing, though most teams are understandably wary of a pitcher with that much to prove. He had a chance to move himself up boards by hitting the upper end of his velocity band more frequently this spring, though unfortunately that couldn't happen. Hagenow probably fits more on day two than day one at this point, potentially in the triple digit picks even if he's signable, though he could head to Kentucky and establish himself as an ace there. He'll still just be turning 21 as the 2023 draft rolls around and has plenty of time to develop.
Summer action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/11/2002. Commitment: Kentucky.
I find Hagenow to be one of the most interesting pitchers in this high school class. He ranks 69th on MLB Pipeline and 185th on the Baseball America 500, but I just get a good feeling about him and I'm taking a bit of a leap of faith by ranking him higher. I did something similar with high school lefty Asa Lacy in 2017, and that one worked out extremely well, so I'm hoping to have similar success with Hagenow. Coming from the Knoxville area, he's the top high school pitcher in Tennessee and the number two high school prospect in the state behind likely first rounder and Nashville-area outfielder Robert Hassell.
Hagenow is much more about projection than present ability, and it's clear that he'll take a bit longer to develop than some other arms. For now, he sits around 90 with his fastball, though he has reached as high as 93 on a few occasions and doesn't throw with a ton of effort. The pitch plays up because of its running action and he also gets some deception on it with his crossfire delivery and long arms. His slider and changeup need significant refinement, though he has shown really good versions of both in the past. His command, like everything else, needs refinement, but he generally does a good job of throwing strikes and staying around the zone.
The real draw here is what Hagenow could be. At a skinny 6'5", he has plenty of room to fill out his frame, and he's an athletic enough player to get the most out of it. His mechanics could also be cleaned up a little bit, which in this case presents a great opportunity to help him drive into his pitches a bit more and get more consistent with that offspeed stuff. Between the frame and the delivery, there's a good chance he adds as much as five or more miles per hour to his fastball and sits routinely in the mid 90's down the line. With the movement and deception he already has on it, it could become a true plus pitch in time. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for a high school senior and nearly a year younger than Hassell, his Volunteer State counterpart.
The projection in Hagenow's profile is extremely enticing, though most teams are understandably wary of a pitcher with that much to prove. He had a chance to move himself up boards by hitting the upper end of his velocity band more frequently this spring, though unfortunately that couldn't happen. Hagenow probably fits more on day two than day one at this point, potentially in the triple digit picks even if he's signable, though he could head to Kentucky and establish himself as an ace there. He'll still just be turning 21 as the 2023 draft rolls around and has plenty of time to develop.
Summer action
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