LHP Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/27/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-0, 0.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17/6 K/BB in 9.1 IP.
Burl Carraway's rise to stardom has been pretty abrupt. He was lightly recruited out of high school in College Station, just down the road from Texas A&M, and got blown up in his only two appearances as a freshman. But he came back a completely different pitcher in 2019 and put up a 2.81 ERA and a 72/22 strikeout to walk ratio across 41.2 innings, setting himself up to be one of the top relievers in the class come 2020. He's only helped his case this year, allowing one earned run in 9.1 innings while striking out 17 of the 37 batters he's faced. Carraway has a little bit of competition from Virginia's Andrew Abbott, UCLA's Holden Powell, and Vanderbilt's Tyler Brown, but for the most part, he's considered the top relief pitcher in the 2020 draft.
On the smaller side at six feet tall, Carraway has one of the more recognizable deliveries in college baseball, quickly rocking back then exploding forward with everything he has. That makes him a clear reliever, but it also makes his pitches play up. His fastball sits consistently in the mid 90's while regularly touching the upper 90's, and its riding action makes it just as hard to square up as it is to catch up to. He also adds a power curveball that's one of the best in the class, coming in with serious biting action and a little bit of lateral movement in addition to its hard vertical drop. He doesn't really use a changeup, and as a college reliever who will do the same job in the pros, he doesn't necessarily need one.
On the downside, Carraway doesn't have much of a track record of spotting his pitches. He's walked 31 in 51.1 innings during his career at Dallas Baptist, a number that would likely be higher if hitters weren't constantly chasing his explosive stuff. The command problems likely stem from his uptempo delivery, but the good news is that they're not so serious that it takes away from the overall product. The track record of college relievers also isn't great. Tyler Jay (6th overall, 2015), Zack Burdi (26th, 2016), and Durbin Feltman (100th, 2018) have largely disappointed so far, while Ben Bowden (45th, 2016) hasn't made it to the majors yet but seems like the only early-round draft pick of the last few seasons to maintain his prospect stock in pro ball. And it makes sense that the track record would be spotty, because starting pitchers often see a big uptick in their stuff when converting to relief and most of these relievers have already seen that uptick before they even get to pro ball – they are who they are.
Because the track record of college relievers is so spotty, many teams might shy away from taking Carraway with an early pick. But despite the command questions, he has a lot going for him. His fastball/curveball combination is among the best in college baseball, two easy plus pitches from the left side that he can use to put away hitters at will. He's also an elite competitor that will go right after hitters, giving him plenty of intangibles that will undoubtedly help him as he climbs the ladder. The ceiling is that of a big league closer, though if he doesn't iron out his command a little bit, there's a good chance he ends up as a seventh or eighth inning guy. Because he could be a very quick mover through the minors, he has a good shot at going earlier in the draft, perhaps somewhere in the second round.
Pitching for Team USA over the summer
Various games from 2019 and 2020
Saturday, May 30, 2020
Friday, May 29, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Drew Bowser
3B Drew Bowser, Harvard-Westlake HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/2/2001. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Stanford.
The Harvard-Westlake School, on the northern edge of the Hollywood Hills, at one point had future MLB starters Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in their starting rotation all at once. The team was similarly stacked in 2020, with two potential top 100 picks in the middle of its lineup: center fielder and likely first rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong and shortstop Drew Bowser. While Crow-Armstrong is the better prospect and easily the more famous name, Bowser has more power than his teammate and has generated plenty of draft buzz in his own right.
Bowser's standout tool is his plus raw power, as he generates a ton of torque with his 6'3" frame. It plays extremely well in batting practice, and while he hasn't always tapped it consistently in games, he has been trending in the right direction in that area. That is due to progress he has made mechanically, as he has begun to do a better job of staying within himself as a hitter and learning to trust his power rather than sell out. As for his hit tool, it has improved due to the aforementioned changes, and scouts have praised his baseball IQ and how it gives him solid pitch recognition skills. He has a track record of struggling with harder fastballs, but he has been making progress on that front. Bowser is a shortstop in high school, but his strong arm and fringy range point him more towards third base, where he could be above average.
Bowser's track record is relatively spotty against advanced pitching, and maintaining his positive trajectory over a full season could have really helped him. Instead, scouts will have to buy into what he showed before the shutdown and hope it will continue in pro ball if they want to sign him away from a Stanford commitment. He figures to be a second or third round talent, though signability will cloud that for sure and there is a very good chance he ends up in Palo Alto. As for ceiling, he could be a 30 home run bat with decent on-base percentages and good defense at third, but there is a fair amount of risk to assume.
Batting practice over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/2/2001. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Stanford.
The Harvard-Westlake School, on the northern edge of the Hollywood Hills, at one point had future MLB starters Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in their starting rotation all at once. The team was similarly stacked in 2020, with two potential top 100 picks in the middle of its lineup: center fielder and likely first rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong and shortstop Drew Bowser. While Crow-Armstrong is the better prospect and easily the more famous name, Bowser has more power than his teammate and has generated plenty of draft buzz in his own right.
Bowser's standout tool is his plus raw power, as he generates a ton of torque with his 6'3" frame. It plays extremely well in batting practice, and while he hasn't always tapped it consistently in games, he has been trending in the right direction in that area. That is due to progress he has made mechanically, as he has begun to do a better job of staying within himself as a hitter and learning to trust his power rather than sell out. As for his hit tool, it has improved due to the aforementioned changes, and scouts have praised his baseball IQ and how it gives him solid pitch recognition skills. He has a track record of struggling with harder fastballs, but he has been making progress on that front. Bowser is a shortstop in high school, but his strong arm and fringy range point him more towards third base, where he could be above average.
Bowser's track record is relatively spotty against advanced pitching, and maintaining his positive trajectory over a full season could have really helped him. Instead, scouts will have to buy into what he showed before the shutdown and hope it will continue in pro ball if they want to sign him away from a Stanford commitment. He figures to be a second or third round talent, though signability will cloud that for sure and there is a very good chance he ends up in Palo Alto. As for ceiling, he could be a 30 home run bat with decent on-base percentages and good defense at third, but there is a fair amount of risk to assume.
Batting practice over the summer
2020 Draft Profile: Petey Halpin
OF Petey Halpin, Mira Costa HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/26/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Texas.
Yet another talented outfielder in a Southern California high school crop that also includes Pete Crow-Armstrong, Isaiah Greene, and Jake Vogel manning the outfield grass, Halpin elevated his stock significantly over the summer and has a very nice all-around profile. Originally from the San Francisco Bay Area, Halpin transferred down to Mira Costa High School in Manhattan Beach for his senior year, where he barely got to play. Still, Halpin made enough progress from the summer onwards to figure prominently into top 100 draft conversations.
Halpin is the kind of player that some might pass over, but others might fall in love with. He has a very loose, quick swing from the left side, and he uses it to spray line drives from gap to gap with great consistency. He has a lean, six foot frame, and his future power production likely hinges on how much he bulks up. If he does get a little bigger, he has the loft and loose swing to tap any natural raw power, but it's probably a better bet that he'll be more of a doubles and triples hitter who can pop home runs here and there. He's a good runner whose speed helps him on the bases and in the outfield, where he has a chance to stick in center field with a strong arm.
We'll probably get a much better idea of what kind of a player Halpin will be after his first pro season. We know he'll make a lot of contact, but we're not entirely sure how the power will play. If he gets a little stronger and taps it consistently, he'll provide excellent value compared to where he's likely to be drafted. Even if he taps it in a roughly as-expected manner, he could still be a 10-15 home run hitter with good on-base percentages and a few stolen bases. He probably fits in the second or third round if signable, though he's also part of a strong Texas recruiting class that includes fellow LA-area prospect Jared Jones as well as Carson Tucker, Tanner Witt, and arguably the best high school pitcher in the country, Jared Kelley.
Batting practice at the end of the summer 2019
More batting practice from summer 2018
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/26/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Texas.
Yet another talented outfielder in a Southern California high school crop that also includes Pete Crow-Armstrong, Isaiah Greene, and Jake Vogel manning the outfield grass, Halpin elevated his stock significantly over the summer and has a very nice all-around profile. Originally from the San Francisco Bay Area, Halpin transferred down to Mira Costa High School in Manhattan Beach for his senior year, where he barely got to play. Still, Halpin made enough progress from the summer onwards to figure prominently into top 100 draft conversations.
Halpin is the kind of player that some might pass over, but others might fall in love with. He has a very loose, quick swing from the left side, and he uses it to spray line drives from gap to gap with great consistency. He has a lean, six foot frame, and his future power production likely hinges on how much he bulks up. If he does get a little bigger, he has the loft and loose swing to tap any natural raw power, but it's probably a better bet that he'll be more of a doubles and triples hitter who can pop home runs here and there. He's a good runner whose speed helps him on the bases and in the outfield, where he has a chance to stick in center field with a strong arm.
We'll probably get a much better idea of what kind of a player Halpin will be after his first pro season. We know he'll make a lot of contact, but we're not entirely sure how the power will play. If he gets a little stronger and taps it consistently, he'll provide excellent value compared to where he's likely to be drafted. Even if he taps it in a roughly as-expected manner, he could still be a 10-15 home run hitter with good on-base percentages and a few stolen bases. He probably fits in the second or third round if signable, though he's also part of a strong Texas recruiting class that includes fellow LA-area prospect Jared Jones as well as Carson Tucker, Tanner Witt, and arguably the best high school pitcher in the country, Jared Kelley.
Batting practice at the end of the summer 2019
More batting practice from summer 2018
Thursday, May 28, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Seth Lonsway
LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/7/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 42/18 K/BB in 18 IP.
Seth Lonsway was a potential top five round pick out of high school in the small town of Celina, Ohio in 2017, but headed down U.S. 33 to Columbus to join the Buckeyes instead. There, he has pitched to some very interesting results. As a redshirt freshman in 2019, he put up a 3.70 ERA and a 126/56 strikeout to walk ratio across 92.1 innings, but then he walked twelve in as many innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer. He started off the 2020 season extremely well; over his first three starts, he put up a 1.13 ERA while striking out an incredible 37 of the 67 batters he faced (55.2%) in 16 innings. However, he walked eight batters in two innings against Stetson in his final start of the season, leaving his status a bit up in the air for the draft. On one hand, he struck out 42 of the 83 batters he faced overall (50.6%), but on the other, he has now walked 30 batters over 30 innings between the Cape and the 2020 season combined.
If anything, it's tough to hit against Lonsway. The ball absolutely explodes out of his hand, with his fastball sitting in the low to mid 90's but playing up because it seems to come out faster than his arm is moving. He also uses a very high arm slot, putting a lot of downhill angle on the ball, but it's clean arm action. After the fastball, he throws a power 12-6 curve that misses a ton of bats, a hard slider with more lateral break, and a decent changeup. The stuff is extremely difficult to square up, with Lonsway having allowed just three home runs over 110.1 innings throughout his college career, and he's struck out 168 in that span. From the left side, that's deadly.
The big problem with Lonsway, of course, is command. For every bit of explosiveness that baseball carries coming out if his hand, it is just as unpredictable. He struggles to repeat both his arm slot and his release point, which can send the baseball in any number of directions. Some scouts have noticed that he is actually pretty decent at landing his breaking balls in the zone, but the fastball just never seems to come out straight. It will take serious improvements in his command for Lonsway to find success in the majors.
With a strong 6'3" build and a clean, if inconsistent, delivery, Lonsway has what it takes to start. If a team can clean up his command and even get it to average, he could be a #2 or #3 starting pitcher. The risk is serious here, and the command has a good chance of pushing him to the bullpen. Because teams undoubtedly will like the stuff, a team that believes in his ability to get his command together could pop him as early as the second round.
2020 start vs Stetson (the one where he walked eight)
On the Cape over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/7/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 42/18 K/BB in 18 IP.
Seth Lonsway was a potential top five round pick out of high school in the small town of Celina, Ohio in 2017, but headed down U.S. 33 to Columbus to join the Buckeyes instead. There, he has pitched to some very interesting results. As a redshirt freshman in 2019, he put up a 3.70 ERA and a 126/56 strikeout to walk ratio across 92.1 innings, but then he walked twelve in as many innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer. He started off the 2020 season extremely well; over his first three starts, he put up a 1.13 ERA while striking out an incredible 37 of the 67 batters he faced (55.2%) in 16 innings. However, he walked eight batters in two innings against Stetson in his final start of the season, leaving his status a bit up in the air for the draft. On one hand, he struck out 42 of the 83 batters he faced overall (50.6%), but on the other, he has now walked 30 batters over 30 innings between the Cape and the 2020 season combined.
If anything, it's tough to hit against Lonsway. The ball absolutely explodes out of his hand, with his fastball sitting in the low to mid 90's but playing up because it seems to come out faster than his arm is moving. He also uses a very high arm slot, putting a lot of downhill angle on the ball, but it's clean arm action. After the fastball, he throws a power 12-6 curve that misses a ton of bats, a hard slider with more lateral break, and a decent changeup. The stuff is extremely difficult to square up, with Lonsway having allowed just three home runs over 110.1 innings throughout his college career, and he's struck out 168 in that span. From the left side, that's deadly.
The big problem with Lonsway, of course, is command. For every bit of explosiveness that baseball carries coming out if his hand, it is just as unpredictable. He struggles to repeat both his arm slot and his release point, which can send the baseball in any number of directions. Some scouts have noticed that he is actually pretty decent at landing his breaking balls in the zone, but the fastball just never seems to come out straight. It will take serious improvements in his command for Lonsway to find success in the majors.
With a strong 6'3" build and a clean, if inconsistent, delivery, Lonsway has what it takes to start. If a team can clean up his command and even get it to average, he could be a #2 or #3 starting pitcher. The risk is serious here, and the command has a good chance of pushing him to the bullpen. Because teams undoubtedly will like the stuff, a team that believes in his ability to get his command together could pop him as early as the second round.
2020 start vs Stetson (the one where he walked eight)
On the Cape over the summer
2020 Draft Profile: Christian Roa
RHP Christian Roa, Texas A&M
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/2/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 5.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 35/9 K/BB in 20 IP.
Texas A&M has had some really good left handed starting pitching prospects recently, with John Doxakis riding a 1.76 ERA as a junior to a second round selection by the Rays in 2019 and Asa Lacy riding a 2.07 career ERA to a likely top five overall selection in 2020. Meanwhile, right hander Christian Roa has pitched in their shadows a bit, putting up a respectable 3.56 ERA and 46/11 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2019. While scouts gathered in College Station to watch Lacy throw in 2020, Roa put on a show in his first two starts, striking out 22 and walking just one over eleven innings against Miami of Ohio and Army. Things were a bit more uneven against UCLA and New Mexico State in his next two starts, when he allowed ten runs over nine innings while walking eight, but he has still pitched himself firmly into top 100 consideration.
Roa has an ideal pitcher's frame at 6'4", one he has filled out considerably while he's been in College Station. He throws a low 90's fastball that can get into the mid 90's at times, adding a whole slew of above average offspeed pitches. There's a top to bottom curveball with good depth, a more diagonal slider that can flash plus with its sharp bite, and a very good changeup that he has great feel for. He throws strikes with all four pitches and has a clean delivery, giving him the look of an impact starting pitcher.
So far for Roa, the whole has actually been less than the sum of the parts. He's been pretty hittable throughout his career, as his delivery might be so clean that it causes everything to play down. While all three of his offspeed pitches get great reviews from scouts, they can be inconsistent at times, and his velocity dipped closer to 90 during those last two starts. Roa needs to work on mixing his entire arsenal more effectively if he wants to be effective against more advanced hitters.
Roa has all of the ingredients needed to be an impact starting pitcher. He has the velocity, offspeeds, control, and durable frame to succeed at the highest level. It will take a little bit of creativity from pro coaching to figure out how to put it all together, with some believing he's just *this* close to that and others seeing him as someone who could consistently underperform. Because of that, there are bound to be teams that like him more than others. He probably fits somewhere in rounds two through four, with a good chance to go closer to the front of that range to a team that loves the starter traits he brings.
Pitching against Louisiana Tech in 2018 (most recent video I could find)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/2/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 5.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 35/9 K/BB in 20 IP.
Texas A&M has had some really good left handed starting pitching prospects recently, with John Doxakis riding a 1.76 ERA as a junior to a second round selection by the Rays in 2019 and Asa Lacy riding a 2.07 career ERA to a likely top five overall selection in 2020. Meanwhile, right hander Christian Roa has pitched in their shadows a bit, putting up a respectable 3.56 ERA and 46/11 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2019. While scouts gathered in College Station to watch Lacy throw in 2020, Roa put on a show in his first two starts, striking out 22 and walking just one over eleven innings against Miami of Ohio and Army. Things were a bit more uneven against UCLA and New Mexico State in his next two starts, when he allowed ten runs over nine innings while walking eight, but he has still pitched himself firmly into top 100 consideration.
Roa has an ideal pitcher's frame at 6'4", one he has filled out considerably while he's been in College Station. He throws a low 90's fastball that can get into the mid 90's at times, adding a whole slew of above average offspeed pitches. There's a top to bottom curveball with good depth, a more diagonal slider that can flash plus with its sharp bite, and a very good changeup that he has great feel for. He throws strikes with all four pitches and has a clean delivery, giving him the look of an impact starting pitcher.
So far for Roa, the whole has actually been less than the sum of the parts. He's been pretty hittable throughout his career, as his delivery might be so clean that it causes everything to play down. While all three of his offspeed pitches get great reviews from scouts, they can be inconsistent at times, and his velocity dipped closer to 90 during those last two starts. Roa needs to work on mixing his entire arsenal more effectively if he wants to be effective against more advanced hitters.
Roa has all of the ingredients needed to be an impact starting pitcher. He has the velocity, offspeeds, control, and durable frame to succeed at the highest level. It will take a little bit of creativity from pro coaching to figure out how to put it all together, with some believing he's just *this* close to that and others seeing him as someone who could consistently underperform. Because of that, there are bound to be teams that like him more than others. He probably fits somewhere in rounds two through four, with a good chance to go closer to the front of that range to a team that loves the starter traits he brings.
Pitching against Louisiana Tech in 2018 (most recent video I could find)
Wednesday, May 27, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Jackson Miller
C Jackson Miller, Mitchell HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 1/3/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Wake Forest.
J.W. Mitchell High School, in the northern Tampa Bay area, is one of two high schools with a chance to put two players into the top 100 picks (the other being California's Harvard-Westlake School with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Drew Bowser). Mason Miller is arguably a top five high school left handed pitcher in the country, while Jackson Miller (no relation) is arguably a top five high school catcher in the country. In my rankings, they both place fourth in their respective demographics. While Jackson doesn't have the loud tools of the catchers ahead of him, like Tyler Soderstrom's or Kevin Parada's bat or Drew Romo's glove, he might be the most balanced high school catcher in the class as a whole.
Miller has a quick, loose left handed swing that helps him put leverage on the ball and hit for some nice power, though he's not a true slugger. He also brings the good approach at the plate that you hope to see out of catchers, enabling him to handle more advanced pitching with a relatively consistent bat. Together, he's a well-rounded hitter with average power and average hitting ability, which from a left handed hitting catcher, plays up. Defensively, Miller is again, well-rounded, showing soft hands and plenty of ease of operation to go with a pretty good arm. He's not a finished product back there, but he has shown enough to inspire confidence that he'll stick as a catcher.
High school catchers are the riskiest demographic in the draft. The amount of development that goes into getting these kids' gloves up to par while simultaneously developing their bats leads all too often to prospects "busting." As a left handed hitter, Miller does have a slight advantage, and the fact that he has such as a balanced game now helps as well, but the risk remains. The upside, though, is fairly clear, as just providing a baseline of offense is enough to get you to the majors and provide value. The fact that catchers are so risky is also what makes them so scarce, and that scarcity is why teams will keep rolling the dice on these teenage backstops.
Personally, I tend to shy away from high school catchers just because the risk is so high, but I really like Miller as a prospect. I think the offensive projection is there to hope for upwards of 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages, which would make him one of the better catchers in the game. He's in need of a fair amount of refinement on both sides of the ball in order to reach that projection, but he's not completely raw and has more than enough feel for the game to get it done. If signable away from Wake Forest, he probably projects in the third to fifth rounds.
Hitting in 2020
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 1/3/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Wake Forest.
J.W. Mitchell High School, in the northern Tampa Bay area, is one of two high schools with a chance to put two players into the top 100 picks (the other being California's Harvard-Westlake School with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Drew Bowser). Mason Miller is arguably a top five high school left handed pitcher in the country, while Jackson Miller (no relation) is arguably a top five high school catcher in the country. In my rankings, they both place fourth in their respective demographics. While Jackson doesn't have the loud tools of the catchers ahead of him, like Tyler Soderstrom's or Kevin Parada's bat or Drew Romo's glove, he might be the most balanced high school catcher in the class as a whole.
Miller has a quick, loose left handed swing that helps him put leverage on the ball and hit for some nice power, though he's not a true slugger. He also brings the good approach at the plate that you hope to see out of catchers, enabling him to handle more advanced pitching with a relatively consistent bat. Together, he's a well-rounded hitter with average power and average hitting ability, which from a left handed hitting catcher, plays up. Defensively, Miller is again, well-rounded, showing soft hands and plenty of ease of operation to go with a pretty good arm. He's not a finished product back there, but he has shown enough to inspire confidence that he'll stick as a catcher.
High school catchers are the riskiest demographic in the draft. The amount of development that goes into getting these kids' gloves up to par while simultaneously developing their bats leads all too often to prospects "busting." As a left handed hitter, Miller does have a slight advantage, and the fact that he has such as a balanced game now helps as well, but the risk remains. The upside, though, is fairly clear, as just providing a baseline of offense is enough to get you to the majors and provide value. The fact that catchers are so risky is also what makes them so scarce, and that scarcity is why teams will keep rolling the dice on these teenage backstops.
Personally, I tend to shy away from high school catchers just because the risk is so high, but I really like Miller as a prospect. I think the offensive projection is there to hope for upwards of 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages, which would make him one of the better catchers in the game. He's in need of a fair amount of refinement on both sides of the ball in order to reach that projection, but he's not completely raw and has more than enough feel for the game to get it done. If signable away from Wake Forest, he probably projects in the third to fifth rounds.
Hitting in 2020
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Kevin Abel
RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/19/1999.
2020 Stats: Did not play – injured.
Here is another interesting profile. A well-regarded recruit coming out of the San Diego high school ranks, Kevin Abel (no relation to OSU recruit Mick Abel) was a solid contributor with a 4.13 regular season ERA for Oregon State in 2018. However, that was just the beginning, as he kicked it into another gear come NCAA Tournament time and went 5-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 41/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 29 innings, including a complete game, two hit shutout in the championship clincher against Arkansas. Already a superhero around Corvallis before he even turned 20, he lasted three starts into the 2019 season before going down with back problems and eventually Tommy John surgery. Now, with only 16.1 innings under his belt since that championship-winning shutout on June 28th, 2018, it's hard to know what to make of him.
Long, long ago, when healthy, Abel sat in the low 90's with his fastball, which played up because of his other two pitches. His curve has big top to bottom break, though at times it can lack power, giving him at least an average breaking ball with above average to plus potential. His changeup is his strikeout pitch, with it's great fading action making it extremely difficult to square up. He thrives when he tunnels the fastball and changeup together, and if he can get a little more consistent curveball, that will be a great three pitch mix.
Abel's command was about average early in his college career, which is better than most of his peers at that age. Projecting it now could be a wild card, though, just because we've barely seen him over the past two seasons, but the hope is that he'll regain the feel he had early in his career and end up with above average command down the road. The fact that he was so good as a freshman, and got better and better throughout the season at that, shows that the natural ability is clearly there. The fact that he handled the bright lights of the NCAA Tournament to post a sub-1.00 ERA at just 19 years old speaks to his ability to handle the mental side of the game as well.
It's extremely difficult to peg Abel, who could have pitched his way into the first round had he been healthy throughout his career. Teams are, and should be, wary of drafting someone based solely off what they did two years ago, but it just takes one team to jump at the opportunity to snag a potential impact starting pitcher. Signability will likely come into question here as well, as Abel could easily head back to Oregon State with eligibility to spare and return a much higher pick in 2021. If he is signable, he could fit anywhere from the second to the fourth round, though he more likely ends up closer to the back of that range.
2019 start vs Nebraska
2018 championship-winning start vs Arkansas
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/19/1999.
2020 Stats: Did not play – injured.
Here is another interesting profile. A well-regarded recruit coming out of the San Diego high school ranks, Kevin Abel (no relation to OSU recruit Mick Abel) was a solid contributor with a 4.13 regular season ERA for Oregon State in 2018. However, that was just the beginning, as he kicked it into another gear come NCAA Tournament time and went 5-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 41/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 29 innings, including a complete game, two hit shutout in the championship clincher against Arkansas. Already a superhero around Corvallis before he even turned 20, he lasted three starts into the 2019 season before going down with back problems and eventually Tommy John surgery. Now, with only 16.1 innings under his belt since that championship-winning shutout on June 28th, 2018, it's hard to know what to make of him.
Long, long ago, when healthy, Abel sat in the low 90's with his fastball, which played up because of his other two pitches. His curve has big top to bottom break, though at times it can lack power, giving him at least an average breaking ball with above average to plus potential. His changeup is his strikeout pitch, with it's great fading action making it extremely difficult to square up. He thrives when he tunnels the fastball and changeup together, and if he can get a little more consistent curveball, that will be a great three pitch mix.
Abel's command was about average early in his college career, which is better than most of his peers at that age. Projecting it now could be a wild card, though, just because we've barely seen him over the past two seasons, but the hope is that he'll regain the feel he had early in his career and end up with above average command down the road. The fact that he was so good as a freshman, and got better and better throughout the season at that, shows that the natural ability is clearly there. The fact that he handled the bright lights of the NCAA Tournament to post a sub-1.00 ERA at just 19 years old speaks to his ability to handle the mental side of the game as well.
It's extremely difficult to peg Abel, who could have pitched his way into the first round had he been healthy throughout his career. Teams are, and should be, wary of drafting someone based solely off what they did two years ago, but it just takes one team to jump at the opportunity to snag a potential impact starting pitcher. Signability will likely come into question here as well, as Abel could easily head back to Oregon State with eligibility to spare and return a much higher pick in 2021. If he is signable, he could fit anywhere from the second to the fourth round, though he more likely ends up closer to the back of that range.
2019 start vs Nebraska
2018 championship-winning start vs Arkansas
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