RHP Clayton Beeter, Texas Tech
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/9/1998.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.14 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 33/4 K/BB in 21 IP
There were quite a few pitchers who came out of the gate strong in 2020 and pushed their draft stocks up because of it, and Clayton Beeter was certainly one of them. After missing his freshman season with Tommy John surgery, Beeter put up a 3.48 ERA and a 40/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.2 innings as a sophomore, flashing good stuff but struggling immensely to find the strike zone. In 2020, he looked like a completely different pitcher, working around a mediocre start against Tennessee to dominate Houston Baptist, Florida Atlantic, and Rice. After walking 21.5% of his opponents in 2019 (20 in 20.2 IP), he slashed that rate all the way down to 4.9% in 2020 (4 in 21 IP), not walking a batter or allowing an earned run over his final two starts.
If 2020 Beeter is the real deal, then he is, for lack of a better term, the real deal. His fastball now sits in the mid 90's and gets as high as 98, and it really looks like it's jumping on you because he comes straight over the top to give it steep downhill plane. He also throws a very good power curveball with 12-6 shape, and his best ones can show great depth down in the zone. He doesn't throw his slider and changeup as much, but both could be good pitches and would give him a great four pitch mix with further refinement. At 6'2", he has a starter's build and has looked great since coming back from Tommy John.
Now let's talk about command. He could barely throw strikes at all in 2019, and then he looked above average in that regard in 2020. A longer season could have really helped him cement his status as a strike thrower, but it also could have hurt him if he regressed against Big 12 competition. Three of his four walks came against Tennessee, the only above average lineup he faced, as did four of his five earned runs on the season. So what will his command look like in pro ball? If he maintains what he showed against weaker lineups, that makes him a pretty complete starting pitching prospect. But if it regresses, he could have to fight for a rotation spot in the minors.
Track record has been stressed over and over for this draft, and that's not something Beeter has much of outside of three really good starts against three mediocre lineups. However, his name has been rising recently and the second round is now looking more like his floor than his ceiling, with some teams in the top 40 or so picks giving him looks. As a redshirt sophomore, Beeter has a little more leverage and could bet on himself and return to Lubbock if he doesn't get the bonus he wants, but that's looking less likely as his name picks up steam.
Pitching in 2020 (CF view)
2020 start vs FAU (home plate view)
Saturday, May 16, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: David Calabrese
OF David Calabrese, St. Elizabeth HS [ON]
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DoB: 9/26/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Arkansas.
David Calabrese and fellow Toronto-area outfielder Owen Caissie have established themselves as the top two Canadian prospects in the draft this year, and in my opinion, Calabrese takes the top spot. Originally a member of the 2021 class, he joined Nick Bitsko, Alejandro Rosario, Blaze Jordan, Owen Caissie, and others in reclassifying up to the 2020 class and is one of the youngest players available. Though he stands out for his speed, he's a better hitter than last year's top Canadian prospect, fellow speedster Dasan Brown, and his well-rounded profile makes him a favorite among scouts.
Calabrese is a bit undersized as a skinny sub-six footer, but he also won't turn 18 until September, giving him plenty of time to grow and add muscle. He has a loose swing from the left side with a slight uppercut, one that has enabled him to make very consistent contact throughout his amateur career. Though he'll never be a power hitter, the looseness in his swing combined with his athleticism and hopefully more physical development helps him project to be much more than just a slap hitter. He already shows a penchant for driving the ball to the gaps, and with his plus-plus speed, he should be a threat for plenty of doubles and triples at the next level. Defensively, that excellent speed also helps him in center field, where he needs some further refinement but has the potential to be a very good defender.
Partially owing to the fact that he's just so young, there are a lot of different directions Calabrese could develop. If he tacks on some more muscle as he finishes off his teenage years, he could find himself a 15-20 home run hitter at the big league level. Even if he more or less stays the same, there is the projection for a 5-15 home run hitter with lots of doubles and triples to supplement his slugging percentage, and he makes enough contact to profile for solid on-base percentages as well. Combine that with plenty of stolen bases and potentially great defense in center field, and it's a really well-rounded projection. However, because he's just 17 and hasn't seen a ton of high-level competition, he comes with some risk and the shortened season probably hurts him a lot more than it helps him. On talent alone, he fits in the second or third round, but he may choose to join Arkansas' incredibly talented recruiting class (which also includes big name draft prospects Masyn Winn, Markevian Hence, Cayden Wallace, and Nick Griffin) and that would complicate things considerably.
Hitting and fielding in 2020
2019 batting practice
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/26/2002. B/T: L/R.
Commitment: Arkansas.
David Calabrese and fellow Toronto-area outfielder Owen Caissie have established themselves as the top two Canadian prospects in the draft this year, and in my opinion, Calabrese takes the top spot. Originally a member of the 2021 class, he joined Nick Bitsko, Alejandro Rosario, Blaze Jordan, Owen Caissie, and others in reclassifying up to the 2020 class and is one of the youngest players available. Though he stands out for his speed, he's a better hitter than last year's top Canadian prospect, fellow speedster Dasan Brown, and his well-rounded profile makes him a favorite among scouts.
Calabrese is a bit undersized as a skinny sub-six footer, but he also won't turn 18 until September, giving him plenty of time to grow and add muscle. He has a loose swing from the left side with a slight uppercut, one that has enabled him to make very consistent contact throughout his amateur career. Though he'll never be a power hitter, the looseness in his swing combined with his athleticism and hopefully more physical development helps him project to be much more than just a slap hitter. He already shows a penchant for driving the ball to the gaps, and with his plus-plus speed, he should be a threat for plenty of doubles and triples at the next level. Defensively, that excellent speed also helps him in center field, where he needs some further refinement but has the potential to be a very good defender.
Partially owing to the fact that he's just so young, there are a lot of different directions Calabrese could develop. If he tacks on some more muscle as he finishes off his teenage years, he could find himself a 15-20 home run hitter at the big league level. Even if he more or less stays the same, there is the projection for a 5-15 home run hitter with lots of doubles and triples to supplement his slugging percentage, and he makes enough contact to profile for solid on-base percentages as well. Combine that with plenty of stolen bases and potentially great defense in center field, and it's a really well-rounded projection. However, because he's just 17 and hasn't seen a ton of high-level competition, he comes with some risk and the shortened season probably hurts him a lot more than it helps him. On talent alone, he fits in the second or third round, but he may choose to join Arkansas' incredibly talented recruiting class (which also includes big name draft prospects Masyn Winn, Markevian Hence, Cayden Wallace, and Nick Griffin) and that would complicate things considerably.
Hitting and fielding in 2020
2019 batting practice
Friday, May 15, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Casey Schmitt
3B/RHP Casey Schmitt
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/1/1999. B/T: R/R.
2020 Stats (hitting): 0 HR, .323/.386/.452, 1 SB, 13/7 K/BB in 16 games
2020 Stats (pitching): 0-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10/5 K/BB in 12 IP
There are quite a few notable two way players at the high school level, including Masyn Winn, Colt Keith, Cade Horton, and Nolan McLean, but Schmitt looks like the clear top two-way college prospect this year. A third baseman and closer at San Diego State, he has slashed .317/.408/.450 since the start of the 2019 season and holds a 2.48 ERA with 23 saves over three years on the mound. Schmitt also homered eight times over 44 games in the elite Cape Cod League and put up a 1.93 ERA over 28 innings, earning the league's playoffs MVP. All of that said, most scouts prefer him as a hitter, where his upside is much higher.
At the plate, Schmitt employs a simple, line drive swing, and that combines well with innate hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel to produce very consistent hard contact all over the field. Listed at 6'2", he possesses above average raw power as well, though he hasn't been consistent in tapping it. He topped out at five home runs in 56 games as a sophomore and did not hit one out in his 16 games in 2020, though he was returning from knee surgery and still hit .323 with six extra base hits. On the Cape, things were different as he blasted eight home runs in 44 games, one shy of Cape leaders T.J. Collett (Kentucky) and Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame). That showing was a huge boost for his stock, and if he can put that pure hitting ability together with his power, he could be a very dangerous hitter. Defensively, he's a very good third baseman who will be able to provide value there and effectively handle the defensive shifts that have become common in today's game.
On the mound, Schmitt profiles as a reliever. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds in a very good splitter that functions as his out pitch, and there is enough deception in his delivery to make both pitches play up. His command isn't pinpoint, but it's enough to be effective in a relief role. Everything played really well on the Cape, where in addition to his 1.93 ERA, he struck out 34 over 28 innings and often went multiple innings at a time.
Because Schmitt's profiles as a potential starting third baseman versus a middle reliever on the mound, he's most likely to get picked up as a hitter and it's unlikely that a team will try to send him out as a two-way guy. If he finds a way to put it all together at the plate, which is very possible once he gives up pitching and focuses on hitting full time, he could be a 20-25 home run bat with good on-base percentages and good defense, high upside for a college hitter outside of the top 50 picks. If the bat does falter, he could always fall back on pitching as well. His overall profile likely puts him somewhere in the second to third round range.
2019 game action (hitting)
Pitching on the Cape
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/1/1999. B/T: R/R.
2020 Stats (hitting): 0 HR, .323/.386/.452, 1 SB, 13/7 K/BB in 16 games
2020 Stats (pitching): 0-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10/5 K/BB in 12 IP
There are quite a few notable two way players at the high school level, including Masyn Winn, Colt Keith, Cade Horton, and Nolan McLean, but Schmitt looks like the clear top two-way college prospect this year. A third baseman and closer at San Diego State, he has slashed .317/.408/.450 since the start of the 2019 season and holds a 2.48 ERA with 23 saves over three years on the mound. Schmitt also homered eight times over 44 games in the elite Cape Cod League and put up a 1.93 ERA over 28 innings, earning the league's playoffs MVP. All of that said, most scouts prefer him as a hitter, where his upside is much higher.
At the plate, Schmitt employs a simple, line drive swing, and that combines well with innate hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel to produce very consistent hard contact all over the field. Listed at 6'2", he possesses above average raw power as well, though he hasn't been consistent in tapping it. He topped out at five home runs in 56 games as a sophomore and did not hit one out in his 16 games in 2020, though he was returning from knee surgery and still hit .323 with six extra base hits. On the Cape, things were different as he blasted eight home runs in 44 games, one shy of Cape leaders T.J. Collett (Kentucky) and Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame). That showing was a huge boost for his stock, and if he can put that pure hitting ability together with his power, he could be a very dangerous hitter. Defensively, he's a very good third baseman who will be able to provide value there and effectively handle the defensive shifts that have become common in today's game.
On the mound, Schmitt profiles as a reliever. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds in a very good splitter that functions as his out pitch, and there is enough deception in his delivery to make both pitches play up. His command isn't pinpoint, but it's enough to be effective in a relief role. Everything played really well on the Cape, where in addition to his 1.93 ERA, he struck out 34 over 28 innings and often went multiple innings at a time.
Because Schmitt's profiles as a potential starting third baseman versus a middle reliever on the mound, he's most likely to get picked up as a hitter and it's unlikely that a team will try to send him out as a two-way guy. If he finds a way to put it all together at the plate, which is very possible once he gives up pitching and focuses on hitting full time, he could be a 20-25 home run bat with good on-base percentages and good defense, high upside for a college hitter outside of the top 50 picks. If the bat does falter, he could always fall back on pitching as well. His overall profile likely puts him somewhere in the second to third round range.
2019 game action (hitting)
Pitching on the Cape
Thursday, May 14, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Gage Workman
3B Gage Workman, Arizona State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/24/1999. B/T: S/R
2020 Stats: 3 HR, .250/.316/.471, 3 SB, 21/5 K/BB in 17 games
Few teams are probably as disappointed about the cancelled season as Arizona State, who could have three day one draft picks from just their infield in first baseman Spencer Torkelson, shortstop Alika Williams, and third baseman Gage Workman. While Torkelson has hit his way to a possible (likely?) first overall selection, Workman joined Williams in stumbling out of the gate. After hitting a robust .330/.413/.528 with eight home runs as a sophomore in 2019, Workman garnered just two hits in his first five games (.111/.150/.167) before picking up just slightly from there. Still, it took two home runs in his final game of the season against Fresno State to give his line a last-minute jolt to a fairly ordinary .250/.316/.471, and an ugly 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio leaves him as a fairly divisive prospect.
Workman, a 6'4" switch hitter, shows an impressive array of tools at a young age, with his raw power probably being the best right now. That power plays better from the left side, where he has a quick but loose swing that can make the ball jump off his bat. From the right side, the swing is still quick, but it can get rigid and he swings and misses more often. He's shown some ability to tap his raw power, hitting eight home runs as a sophomore in what was an especially strong year for Pac 12 competition, but he should have more in the tank. In terms of pure hitting ability, he's shown the ability to catch up to high-end pitching in the Pac 12 and in the elite Cape Cod League, he has an aggressive approach at the plate that has led to an 89/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 74 games since the start of the 2019 season.
In addition to his power upside, two things buy his bat additional time. Because he enrolled early at Arizona State in 2018, Workman is very young for the class and won't turn 21 until October, making him the age of a typical college sophomore. That buys slack for his approach at the plate, as many college hitters learn the nuances of the strike zone and plate discipline as they get older. The other is his defense, as he's a well above-average third baseman who might even be able to handle shortstop if a team wants to give him a shot. With shifts becoming extremely prevalent at the major league level, having a guy like Workman with shortstop-like range is extremely beneficial, especially when he brings a third baseman's offensive profile.
Workman entered the 2020 season right on the fringes of the first round conversation, but that was more based on what he could do, not what he had done to that point. With the up and down start to the season, he's seen somewhat of a market correction to his stock, now fitting somewhere in the second to third round range. He has a bit wider of a variation due to his streakiness as a hitter, in addition to outlier factors like his age and the status of his two year Mormon mission. While there is no indication as of now that he'll be taking it any time soon, the A's didn't think Kyler Murray would end up in the NFL and it's just something to keep in mind. Workman's ceiling is that of a 25-30 home run hitter with decent on-base percentages and good defense at third base or playable defense at shortstop.
2020 batting and fielding practice
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/24/1999. B/T: S/R
2020 Stats: 3 HR, .250/.316/.471, 3 SB, 21/5 K/BB in 17 games
Few teams are probably as disappointed about the cancelled season as Arizona State, who could have three day one draft picks from just their infield in first baseman Spencer Torkelson, shortstop Alika Williams, and third baseman Gage Workman. While Torkelson has hit his way to a possible (likely?) first overall selection, Workman joined Williams in stumbling out of the gate. After hitting a robust .330/.413/.528 with eight home runs as a sophomore in 2019, Workman garnered just two hits in his first five games (.111/.150/.167) before picking up just slightly from there. Still, it took two home runs in his final game of the season against Fresno State to give his line a last-minute jolt to a fairly ordinary .250/.316/.471, and an ugly 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio leaves him as a fairly divisive prospect.
Workman, a 6'4" switch hitter, shows an impressive array of tools at a young age, with his raw power probably being the best right now. That power plays better from the left side, where he has a quick but loose swing that can make the ball jump off his bat. From the right side, the swing is still quick, but it can get rigid and he swings and misses more often. He's shown some ability to tap his raw power, hitting eight home runs as a sophomore in what was an especially strong year for Pac 12 competition, but he should have more in the tank. In terms of pure hitting ability, he's shown the ability to catch up to high-end pitching in the Pac 12 and in the elite Cape Cod League, he has an aggressive approach at the plate that has led to an 89/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 74 games since the start of the 2019 season.
In addition to his power upside, two things buy his bat additional time. Because he enrolled early at Arizona State in 2018, Workman is very young for the class and won't turn 21 until October, making him the age of a typical college sophomore. That buys slack for his approach at the plate, as many college hitters learn the nuances of the strike zone and plate discipline as they get older. The other is his defense, as he's a well above-average third baseman who might even be able to handle shortstop if a team wants to give him a shot. With shifts becoming extremely prevalent at the major league level, having a guy like Workman with shortstop-like range is extremely beneficial, especially when he brings a third baseman's offensive profile.
Workman entered the 2020 season right on the fringes of the first round conversation, but that was more based on what he could do, not what he had done to that point. With the up and down start to the season, he's seen somewhat of a market correction to his stock, now fitting somewhere in the second to third round range. He has a bit wider of a variation due to his streakiness as a hitter, in addition to outlier factors like his age and the status of his two year Mormon mission. While there is no indication as of now that he'll be taking it any time soon, the A's didn't think Kyler Murray would end up in the NFL and it's just something to keep in mind. Workman's ceiling is that of a 25-30 home run hitter with decent on-base percentages and good defense at third base or playable defense at shortstop.
2020 batting and fielding practice
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Kyle Nicolas
RHP Kyle Nicolas, Ball State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/22/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 2.74 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 37/7 K/BB in 23 IP
After winning the Ohio state championship in 2017, Jackson High School in the Canton suburb of Massillon sent its catcher to Ohio State and its best pitcher to Ball State. While Dillon Dingler has worked his way into serious first round conversation, Kyle Nicolas isn't far behind him. He showed loud stuff over his first two years in Muncie, but erratic command (91 walks in 108.2 innings) led to a 5.30 ERA in that time span. However, he looked much more refined in 2020, and he ended his season on a high note with a fantastic final start against Sacred Heart, allowing just two baserunners over seven shutout innings while striking out seventeen.
With Nicolas, it starts with the fastball. He sits in the mid 90's consistently and has reached back for triple digits a couple of times. The rest of his arsenal, though, is inconsistent. His best breaking ball is a potentially plus slider, which stands out more for its upper 80's velocity than for its movement but which can have sharp, bat-missing bite at times. He throws a curveball with good depth at its best, but the pitch often lacks finish and can get hit up in the zone. Lastly, he hasn't had much need for his changeup against a Midwest Athletic Conference (MAC) schedule, and that will be a key piece of his development going forward.
Nicolas has a long history of struggling to throw strikes. He walked 44 batters in 57 innings as a freshman in 2018, then walked 47 in 51.2 innings as a sophomore. However, he took a big step forward with his command in 2020, and it goes beyond just the fact that he walked only seven in 23 innings this year. He was also doing a much better job of repeating his delivery and getting ahead in the count, showing real progress rather than a fluke couple of weeks. At 6'4", he has a clear starter's build, and that 17 strikeout start against Sacred Heart to end the season put an exclamation point on the progress he's made.
It's a bit more of a boom/bust profile with Nicolas than with many other college arms in this range of the draft, but the size, velocity, projection in his stuff, and improvement in his command point give him a very high ceiling. He's the kind of pitcher who could take another leap forward in pro ball and look like a steal within a year, but there is continued work that needs to be done to get him to where he needs to be. If starting doesn't work out, he could fall back as a fastball/slider reliever with the former approaching 100. He probably fits somewhere in the second round, but due to the nature of his profile, he could easily be drafted before or after that.
Pitching in 2019 fall practice
Summer Cape Cod action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/22/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 2.74 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 37/7 K/BB in 23 IP
After winning the Ohio state championship in 2017, Jackson High School in the Canton suburb of Massillon sent its catcher to Ohio State and its best pitcher to Ball State. While Dillon Dingler has worked his way into serious first round conversation, Kyle Nicolas isn't far behind him. He showed loud stuff over his first two years in Muncie, but erratic command (91 walks in 108.2 innings) led to a 5.30 ERA in that time span. However, he looked much more refined in 2020, and he ended his season on a high note with a fantastic final start against Sacred Heart, allowing just two baserunners over seven shutout innings while striking out seventeen.
With Nicolas, it starts with the fastball. He sits in the mid 90's consistently and has reached back for triple digits a couple of times. The rest of his arsenal, though, is inconsistent. His best breaking ball is a potentially plus slider, which stands out more for its upper 80's velocity than for its movement but which can have sharp, bat-missing bite at times. He throws a curveball with good depth at its best, but the pitch often lacks finish and can get hit up in the zone. Lastly, he hasn't had much need for his changeup against a Midwest Athletic Conference (MAC) schedule, and that will be a key piece of his development going forward.
Nicolas has a long history of struggling to throw strikes. He walked 44 batters in 57 innings as a freshman in 2018, then walked 47 in 51.2 innings as a sophomore. However, he took a big step forward with his command in 2020, and it goes beyond just the fact that he walked only seven in 23 innings this year. He was also doing a much better job of repeating his delivery and getting ahead in the count, showing real progress rather than a fluke couple of weeks. At 6'4", he has a clear starter's build, and that 17 strikeout start against Sacred Heart to end the season put an exclamation point on the progress he's made.
It's a bit more of a boom/bust profile with Nicolas than with many other college arms in this range of the draft, but the size, velocity, projection in his stuff, and improvement in his command point give him a very high ceiling. He's the kind of pitcher who could take another leap forward in pro ball and look like a steal within a year, but there is continued work that needs to be done to get him to where he needs to be. If starting doesn't work out, he could fall back as a fastball/slider reliever with the former approaching 100. He probably fits somewhere in the second round, but due to the nature of his profile, he could easily be drafted before or after that.
Pitching in 2019 fall practice
Summer Cape Cod action
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Jeff Criswell
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/10/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26/9 K/BB in 24 IP
Michigan made its surprise run to the College World Series finals in 2019 largely on the backs of an excellent weekend rotation. Their top two starters, Tommy Henry (74th overall, Diamondbacks) and Karl Kauffman (77th overall, Rockies), went three picks apart in the draft, but their #3 starter, Jeff Criswell, has a chance to beat them both. In that stacked rotation, it was Criswell who led the team in ERA at 2.72, and his 116 strikeouts were second only to Henry's 135. However, his 50 walks also led the team, and that inconsistency has spilled over a bit into 2020. After posting a very respectable 3.38 ERA and 22/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, he had four very up and down starts that left him with a 4.50 ERA this year. He held his own against a very strong Vanderbilt lineup, got knocked around a bit by Connecticut, dominated Cal Poly, then finished with an okay start against Pepperdine.
Criswell has most of what it takes to be a successful professional starting pitcher right now. His fastball sits in the mid 90's, touching as high as 97 regularly, and he can get good movement on it as well. He adds in a good slider that has missed plenty of bats in college, and his changeup is relatively advanced with some nice fading action. His three pitch mix plays up because it can be hard to track the ball coming out his hand, with a pretty wide range of movement in his delivery. The delivery itself is mechanically sound and pretty straightforward, it's just the long arm action that moves hitters' eyes around a lot.
The concern with Criswell is command and consistency. The stuff is loud, but it's not that loud, and he can get hit around quite a bit when he starts falling behind in counts or lets his offspeed stuff lose their sharpness. In order to start at the next level, Criswell needs to get more consistent with either the stuff or the command, but preferably both. On an interesting side note, he is one of two Michigan Wolverines with top-100 aspirations, and the other, Jordan Nwogu, was born on the exact same day (3/10/1999).
Criswell is pretty close to putting it all together, and some pro coaching might be all he needs to harness his three pitch mix and become and impact big league starter. The velocity of course stands out, but the slider and changeup are both very good pitches when they're on and his durable, 6'4" frame lends itself very well to starting. If he can't get everything figured out and stick as a starter, his stuff would play well out of the bullpen, giving him some floor to fall back on. It's a pretty clear second round profile, and he could be drafted anywhere from the early second to the early third round.
2019 start vs Oklahoma State (he struck out a career-high 12 that day)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/10/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26/9 K/BB in 24 IP
Michigan made its surprise run to the College World Series finals in 2019 largely on the backs of an excellent weekend rotation. Their top two starters, Tommy Henry (74th overall, Diamondbacks) and Karl Kauffman (77th overall, Rockies), went three picks apart in the draft, but their #3 starter, Jeff Criswell, has a chance to beat them both. In that stacked rotation, it was Criswell who led the team in ERA at 2.72, and his 116 strikeouts were second only to Henry's 135. However, his 50 walks also led the team, and that inconsistency has spilled over a bit into 2020. After posting a very respectable 3.38 ERA and 22/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, he had four very up and down starts that left him with a 4.50 ERA this year. He held his own against a very strong Vanderbilt lineup, got knocked around a bit by Connecticut, dominated Cal Poly, then finished with an okay start against Pepperdine.
Criswell has most of what it takes to be a successful professional starting pitcher right now. His fastball sits in the mid 90's, touching as high as 97 regularly, and he can get good movement on it as well. He adds in a good slider that has missed plenty of bats in college, and his changeup is relatively advanced with some nice fading action. His three pitch mix plays up because it can be hard to track the ball coming out his hand, with a pretty wide range of movement in his delivery. The delivery itself is mechanically sound and pretty straightforward, it's just the long arm action that moves hitters' eyes around a lot.
The concern with Criswell is command and consistency. The stuff is loud, but it's not that loud, and he can get hit around quite a bit when he starts falling behind in counts or lets his offspeed stuff lose their sharpness. In order to start at the next level, Criswell needs to get more consistent with either the stuff or the command, but preferably both. On an interesting side note, he is one of two Michigan Wolverines with top-100 aspirations, and the other, Jordan Nwogu, was born on the exact same day (3/10/1999).
Criswell is pretty close to putting it all together, and some pro coaching might be all he needs to harness his three pitch mix and become and impact big league starter. The velocity of course stands out, but the slider and changeup are both very good pitches when they're on and his durable, 6'4" frame lends itself very well to starting. If he can't get everything figured out and stick as a starter, his stuff would play well out of the bullpen, giving him some floor to fall back on. It's a pretty clear second round profile, and he could be drafted anywhere from the early second to the early third round.
2019 start vs Oklahoma State (he struck out a career-high 12 that day)
Monday, May 11, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Victor Mederos
RHP Victor Mederos, Westminster Christian HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/8/2001. Commitment: Miami.
There is a ton of high school talent in the Miami area this year, and arguably the best prospect out of everyone is right handed pitcher Victor Mederos. Mederos has a fascinating backstory, which includes fleeing Cuba with his family at six years old and spending eleven days working his way through Central America, but more relevant to scouts is that more recently, he's been a star on the summer showcase circuit. Though he's pitched for three different high schools around Miami, there's much less of a track record in school as he's missed time with injuries and a global pandemic, and he comes with a very wide ceiling/floor gap that makes him a bit of a divisive prospect.
You're definitely buying the arm strength here. He sits in the low to mid 90's and has hit 96 on quite a few occasions, with running action and natural extension from a big 6'4" frame. His secondaries are big pitches as well, as he can run his slider up to 87 and his power curveball has real depth, though the two can blend into each other. He also adds a solid changeup, and when he's on, it's one of the better four pitch mixes in the class. However, the problem has been consistency. There is some effort in his delivery, and when he reaches back for more velocity on his fastball, he can fly open and lose his arm slot, sending mid 90's velocity towards a right handed hitter's head. It can also cause him to yank some breaking balls into the dirt to his glove side, but this has been more prevalent with the fastball.
Interestingly, Mederos' command isn't actually all that bad. He does a good job of throwing strikes and hitting spots when he stays within himself, but the problems tend to arise only when he doesn't keep everything in line. Because of his tremendous arm strength, Mederos doesn't need to reach back and hurl the ball with everything he has, and trusting that arm strength and learning more body control could help him leap forward in pro ball. All of that bodes well for improved command down the line. There have been some minor concerns over Medero's larger frame and the fact that he's missed time with injuries, though nothing major. He also turns 19 two days before the draft, making him pretty old for a high school senior.
Mederos could really go anywhere in the draft, or not at all. He has high upside as a potential ace, which could entice teams as early as the comp round. However, there is tremendous risk involved due to how inconsistent he's been, which could knock him down to the second or third round on its own. Combine that with potential signability questions, as he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore at Miami in 2022, and he may not get drafted at all. Regardless of whether he's pitching for the Hurricanes or in the minors, it's going to be a lot of fun watching Mederos grow as a pitcher.
2020 game action
2019 summer showcase action
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DoB: 6/8/2001. Commitment: Miami.
There is a ton of high school talent in the Miami area this year, and arguably the best prospect out of everyone is right handed pitcher Victor Mederos. Mederos has a fascinating backstory, which includes fleeing Cuba with his family at six years old and spending eleven days working his way through Central America, but more relevant to scouts is that more recently, he's been a star on the summer showcase circuit. Though he's pitched for three different high schools around Miami, there's much less of a track record in school as he's missed time with injuries and a global pandemic, and he comes with a very wide ceiling/floor gap that makes him a bit of a divisive prospect.
You're definitely buying the arm strength here. He sits in the low to mid 90's and has hit 96 on quite a few occasions, with running action and natural extension from a big 6'4" frame. His secondaries are big pitches as well, as he can run his slider up to 87 and his power curveball has real depth, though the two can blend into each other. He also adds a solid changeup, and when he's on, it's one of the better four pitch mixes in the class. However, the problem has been consistency. There is some effort in his delivery, and when he reaches back for more velocity on his fastball, he can fly open and lose his arm slot, sending mid 90's velocity towards a right handed hitter's head. It can also cause him to yank some breaking balls into the dirt to his glove side, but this has been more prevalent with the fastball.
Interestingly, Mederos' command isn't actually all that bad. He does a good job of throwing strikes and hitting spots when he stays within himself, but the problems tend to arise only when he doesn't keep everything in line. Because of his tremendous arm strength, Mederos doesn't need to reach back and hurl the ball with everything he has, and trusting that arm strength and learning more body control could help him leap forward in pro ball. All of that bodes well for improved command down the line. There have been some minor concerns over Medero's larger frame and the fact that he's missed time with injuries, though nothing major. He also turns 19 two days before the draft, making him pretty old for a high school senior.
Mederos could really go anywhere in the draft, or not at all. He has high upside as a potential ace, which could entice teams as early as the comp round. However, there is tremendous risk involved due to how inconsistent he's been, which could knock him down to the second or third round on its own. Combine that with potential signability questions, as he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore at Miami in 2022, and he may not get drafted at all. Regardless of whether he's pitching for the Hurricanes or in the minors, it's going to be a lot of fun watching Mederos grow as a pitcher.
2020 game action
2019 summer showcase action
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