C Adley Rutschman, Oregon State
6'2" 215 lbs, S/R, born 2/6/1998
If you're at all familiar with the prospects of the 2019 Draft, you certainly know all about Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman. If you're late to the game, it's time to get caught up; Adley Rutschman is the best prospect in this draft and is a near-lock to go first overall to the Baltimore Orioles when the draft rolls around on June 3rd. So, who is he?
Adley Rutschman, from the southwestern Portland suburb of Sherwood, has been the Oregon State Beavers' starting catcher for three years. The switch-hitter slashed just .234/.322/.306 as a freshman in 2017, but the coaching staff liked what they saw and he broke out in a big way. In 2018, as a sophomore, Rutschman slashed .408/.505/.628 with nine home runs and an excellent 40/53 strikeout to walk ratio, setting himself up as an early favorite for the 2019 Draft. Then, in 2019, he got even better; through May 2nd, the junior is slashing .429/.576/.800 with 14 home runs and a ridiculous 28/54 strikeout to walk ratio, showing literally no holes in his game. He has power, he gets to it consistently, he knows the strike zone inside and out, and it all adds up to a complete offensive package.
However, it's not just his bat that makes him special. Rutschman is considered a fearless leader behind the plate, where he blocks everything and uses his strong arm to cut off the opposition's running game. Catchers are almost always bat-first or glove-first, but Rutschman is the rare find that has both an impact bat and no risk of being forced to move out from behind the plate. Even Joey Bart, the second overall pick to the Giants in 2018, had some swing and miss concerns, and while Rutschman doesn't have quite the same light tower power, he is easily the better prospect heading into his respective draft. Throw in his reportedly excellent work ethic, and he in all likelihood will be the first overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft.
Ultimate projection: middle of the order bat with good defense behind the plate, true MVP potential
Likely draft range: would be surprising if he falls past the Orioles at first overall
Thursday, May 2, 2019
Thursday, March 7, 2019
Reviewing the San Diego Padres Farm System
While the Braves, Rays, White Sox, and Blue Jays might be able to give the Padres a run for their money, it's pretty easy to pick San Diego as having the top farm system in baseball. They have the headliner (Fernando Tatis Jr.), a supporting cast of impact hitters (Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia, Josh Naylor), and plenty of pitching depth (led by MacKenzie Gore, Logan Allen, Chris Paddack), making it no surprise that Manny Machado was willing to sign there despite the lack of recent success (though I'm sure the weather didn't hurt). In an overview sense, there's not much else to say except that this system is loaded in every way.
Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA San Antonio Missions*, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, Short Season Tri-City Dust Devils, and complex level AZL and DSL Padres
*AA affiliate will move from San Antonio, TX to Amarillo, TX in 2019
The Headliner: SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
20 year old Fernando Tatis Jr., the son of former major leaguer Fernando Tatis, besides having a great birthday that also happens to be mine (January 2nd crew), is the only other player that can really give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a run for his money as the top prospect in the game right now. As a teenager in 2018, Tatis slashed .286/.355/.507 with 16 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA San Antonio, putting up great numbers despite watching his season end with a thumb injury in July. He's already a complete player who does everything well, showing power, the ability to get on base, speed, and strong defense at shortstop, all at a very young age. I'm not concerned about the higher than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio because Tatis was just 19 years old in AA, and he barrels the ball up consistently enough that it won't be a problem in the majors in 2019. Set to play all of this season at just 20 years old, he should be a strong candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year Award as he looks to fulfill his projections as a 20+ homer bat with high on-base percentages, double digit stolen bases, and great defense: a perennial All Star projection.
High Minors Hitters: 2B Luis Urias, C/OF Francisco Mejia, 3B Jason Vosler, OF Josh Naylor, C/1B Austin Allen, OF Buddy Reed, and 3B Hudson Potts
The Padres are deeper in pitching, but I'll start with the upper level hitters behind Fernando Tatis Jr. who are set to make an impact in the very near future. 21 year old Luis Urias slashed .296/.398/.447 with eight home runs and a 109/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AAA El Paso, then slashed .208/.264/.354 with a pair of home runs and a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 major league games. At 5'9", he doesn't hit for much power, but Urias is a steady singles hitter who draws plenty of walks, avoids strikeouts for the most part, and overall projects to post high on-base percentages. He should be a steady producer for years to come. 23 year old Francisco Mejia is a very well known prospect, having been the top prospect in the Indians' system before he was traded to San Diego in the Brad Hand trade. Mejia slashed .293/.338/.471 with 14 home runs and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AAA, also slashing .179/.258/.375 with three home runs and a 19/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 21 major league games. Mejia has high upside but also comes with plenty of questions, as he is a very solid hitter who can consistently barrel the ball up and spray deep line drives and home runs all over the park, though he is unproven at the major league level despite all his success in the high minors. Defensively, the Padres continue to be hopeful that he can stick as a catcher with his cannon arm, but his defense overall is just so-so. There is a chance he ends up in the outfield or even at third base, where he is also just so-so, but his potential for 15-20 home runs annually and high on-base percentages means that the Padres will be very patient. 25 year old Jason Vosler, who was acquired from the Cubs this offseason, looks like more of a bench bat after slashing .251/.330/.467 with 23 home runs and a 149/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at AA and AAA in 2018. He has power and draws a lot of walks, but he likely won't hit for enough average to ever warrant a starting position, especially with Manny Machado now blocking him at third base. He's an average defensive infielder and will warrant consideration as a power hitting pinch hitter. Dropping down a level, 21 year old Josh Naylor projects to be an impact hitter at the major league level. In 2018, Naylor slashed .297/.383/.447 with 17 home runs and a 69/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA San Antonio, showing some power and great plate discipline. A stocky guy at 5'11" and 250 pounds, you'd expect more power out of Naylor, but his keen eye at the plate and high on-base percentages make up for that and he should hit his way into the starting lineup down the line. Defensively, he doesn't provide much value, playing an average first base and a mediocre left field, but at this point the bat looks like it is enough to carry him. 25 year old Austin Allen finds himself in a somewhat similar position, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .290/.351/.506 with 22 home runs and a 97/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at San Antonio. While Naylor has better plate discipline, the 6'2" Allen has shown more power at this point (keep in mind that Naylor is nearly three and a half years younger) and has the defensive edge because he *might* be able to stick as a catcher. His defense there is mediocre and he just turned 25 in January, but the Padres still hope to refine him to the point where he is playable back there and his power can help him be a bat-first catcher. If he is forced to move to first base, he's still a strong enough hitter that he should be able to stick on a roster and even earn some starts. 23 year old Buddy Reed has had a roller coaster ride for a career, looking like a potential top ten pick for the 2016 draft before an up and down junior season at Florida knocked him to the second round (48th overall), then he struggled in pro ball in both 2016 (.254/.326/.337) and 2017 (.234/.290/.396). However, he turned it around in 2018, slashing .271/.319/.435 with 13 home runs, 51 stolen bases, and a 147/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. He was much better at hitter-friendly Lake Elsinore (.324/.371/.549) than he was at much more pitcher-friendly San Antonio (.179/.227/.235), which raises questions about his ability to hit at the major league level, but he still retains high upside despite turning 24 in April. Reed is exceptionally fast and plays great defense in center field, plus his wiry frame helps him hit for some power at the plate. However, if he wants to end up more than just a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement, he really has to improve his plate discipline in a hurry. Lastly, 20 year old Hudson Potts was actually the Padres first round pick (24th overall, then known as Hudson Sanchez) out of a Dallas area high school in that same 2016 draft, and he slashed .260/.335/.455 with 19 home runs and a 145/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games between Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. Like Reed, he was much better at Lake Elsinore (.281/.350/.498) than he was at San Antonio (.154/.258/.231), though being three and a half years younger does buy him slack. He has some power and at 6'3", he looks like he could grow into more, and while he strikes out a lot, he has been young for the levels he has played at and does possess an advanced bat. Potts isn't a great defender at third base but isn't a liability either, and he is somewhat of a sleeper in the deep system he plays in. Watch for Potts to draw more attention in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Edward Olivares, OF Tirso Ornelas, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, C Luis Campusano, SS Xavier Edwards, and 2B Tucupita Marcano
The best hitters in the Padres' system are up near the top, but they have a whole group of young guys in the low and mid minors that could break out and join that group in 2019. 22 year old Edward Olivares, acquired from the Blue Jays for Yangervis Solarte last offseason, looks like a solid fourth outfielder after slashing .277/.321/.429 with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 102/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at hitter-friendly High A Lake Elsinore in 2018. Olivares is a speedy centerfielder known for his great outfield defense, adding a very good feel for the barrel and plenty of gap power at the plate to round out his skill set. Overall, the bat is likely just a little too light if he wants to be a long-term starter in the majors, but with the ability to post solid on-base percentages and quite a few extra base hits, he should be a very useful fourth outfielder. 18 year old Tirso Ornelas, who grew up right across the border from San Diego in Tijuana, burst onto the scene in 2018 by slashing .252/.341/.392 with eight home runs and a 68/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 games at Class A Fort Wayne. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but Ornelas just turned 18 right before the start of the season and managed very respectable numbers against full season competition (most notably an 11.3% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate). In addition to his very mature approach at the plate, he has room to grow into more power at 6'3" and is a prime candidate for an offensive breakout in the hitter-friendly High A California League in 2019. Defensively, the teenager should be a solid right fielder. 19 year old Jeisson Rosario has a similar profile, having slashed .271/.368/.353 with three home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 108/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. He's also very young, just five months older than Ornelas, and he also has a very patient approach at the plate that allows him to draw plenty of walks. He might strike out a bit more and he doesn't have quite as much power, but he's faster and also has an advanced bat for his age. Ornelas is the better prospect at this point but it will be interesting to see Rosario develop alongside him in the outfield. 19 year old Gabriel Arias slashed .240/.302/.352 with six home runs and a 149/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games with Fort Wayne, and like Ornelas and Rosario, he was extremely young for the level. While his bat isn't as developed as Ornelas's or even Rosario's, he's the best defender in the group with a slick glove and a strong arm at shortstop, buying his bat plenty of time to develop. He has some gap power at this point and isn't afraid to draw a walk, so he has the building blocks to eventually build himself into a starting-caliber shortstop down the road. (though Fernando Tatis Jr. might have something to say about that). 20 year old Luis Campusano was a second round pick (39th overall) out of an Augusta, Georgia high school in 2017, then he slashed .288/.345/.365 with three home runs and a 43/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. Known for his power as a high schooler, that hasn't quite translated into pro ball, but catchers take longer to develop and his .345 on-base percentage was still encouraging. He's a work in progress defensively but shows the tools to be above average in that regard, and if he starts tapping into his raw power more consistently, he could give the Padres a third legitimate catcher behind Francisco Mejia and Austin Allen. Moving farther down in the system, the Padres have a couple of short season bats to replace the big crew graduating from Class A in 2018. 19 year old Xavier Edwards was a competitive balance pick (38th overall) in 2018 out of a South Florida high school, and he slashed .346/.453/.409 with 22 stolen bases and a 25/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and short season Tri-City in his pro debut. Those numbers were exactly in line with what was expected from Edwards, as he brings great plate discipline and feel for the barrel along with lots of speed and defensive value. Because he lacks power, it's important that he continues to spray line drives into the gaps and draw his share of walks. Defensively, he is so-so at shortstop but would be a well above average defender at second base. Overall, he has the makings of a prototypical leadoff man. Lastly, 19 year old Tucupita Marcano, who was apparently named for his hometown of Tucupita, Venezuela, slashed .366/.450/.438 with one home run, 15 stolen bases, and a 16/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in complex ball and at Tri-City. Marcano tore up the complex level Arizona League (.395/.497/.444) but was also strong in short season ball (.314/.355/.429) despite not turning 19 until after the season, showing advanced plate discipline and the ability to make consistent hard contact. He's a decent middle infielder who may be forced from shortstop to second base, but with his potential to post very high on-base percentages, his defense may not matter and 2019 could be the year he really establishes himself in this system.
High Minors Pitchers: LHP Logan Allen, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Jacob Nix, RHP Chris Paddack, and RHP Lake Bachar
The Padres' great wealth of arms is scattered pretty evenly throughout the system, which means that there are a couple of true impact arms knocking on the door right now even after 2016 draftees Eric Lauer (first round from Kent State) and Joey Lucchesi (fourth round from Southeast Missouri State) graduated in 2018. 21 year old Logan Allen, who came over from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel trade of 2015, has dominated the minor leagues and put up a huge season in 2018, going 14-6 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 151/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.2 innings at AA San Antonio and AAA El Paso. The 6'3" lefty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondaries, though only his changeup can be considered a swing and miss pitch. Instead of blowing the ball by hitters, Allen finds success by mixing his pitches and maintaining his stuff deep into ballgames, giving him a pretty clear #3 or #4 starter projection with fairly low risk. He should be able to hold down a major league rotation spot for most or all of 2019. 24 year old Cal Quantrill is a Canadian righty out of Stanford who was a first round pick (eighth overall in 2016), though he had an up and down 2018 and posted a 4.80 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 123/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings between San Antonio and El Paso. Quantrill, like Allen, is a pitchability guy who only throws in the low to mid 90's but who adds a full array of secondaries headlined by a great changeup. He has better command than Allen but has less deception in his delivery and doesn't get as many strikeouts, and that command does come and go. When he's on, though, he looks fantastic; on June 3rd, he struck out ten over seven shutout innings against the AA Springfield Cardinals, allowing just five baserunners along the way. Quantrill is going to need his command to be "on" more than it's "off" in the majors, where he could be a very solid #3 starter but who could slip back to a #4 or a #5 if he can't get more consistent. To wrap up the Allen/Quantrill comparison: Allen is almost two and a half years younger than Quantrill and is consistently average with his command, while Quantrill fluctuates anywhere from average to above average in that regard. However, as a lefty, Allen gets more deception on his stuff and can get away with that average command. 23 year old Jacob Nix, who was caught up in the Brady Aiken draft mess of 2014 with the Astros, was the Padres' third round pick (86th overall) in 2016 and pitched well in the high minors in 2018, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 44/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at San Antonio and El Paso. However, he struggled in a brief MLB call-up with a 7.02 ERA and a 21/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings, so he'll try again in 2019. Nix is a 6'4" righty with a straight, low to mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a decent changeup, and he does a very good job of throwing strikes in general. Sometimes he can be a little bit too much over the plate, which led to him allowing eight home runs in nine major league starts in 2018, but a few further tweaks in his command could make him a solid #4 starter in the near future. Moving down a level, 23 year old Chris Paddack had as big a bounce-back season as you can have in 2018, posting a 2.10 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 120/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio a year after missing all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery. Paddack now has a 1.82 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and a 230/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 177.2 career minor league innings since being drafted in the eighth round out of an Austin-area high school by the Marlins in 2015, as he has showcased exceptional command to go along with a low 90's fastball, a mediocre curveball, and a fantastic changeup that serves as a true swing and miss pitch. Paddack has some stiff competition for rotation spots to deal with in the near future, so the Padres can be patient with him and help him build his stamina back up after throwing just 132.1 innings from 2016-2018, but after that he could be a very useful mid-rotation starter. Lastly, 23 year old Lake Bachar posted a 4.68 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an 80/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings at Lake Elsinore and San Antonio, though those stats don't count two strong appearances in the AA Texas League playoffs (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K). His stuff isn't great, but he has a full array of secondary pitches and commands everything decently well, also getting good deception with his high three quarters arm angle. He's unlikely to stick in the rotation in a system as deep as this one, but he could be a useful long reliever in the near future.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Michel Baez, LHP Adrian Morejon, RHP Andres Munoz, RHP Reggie Lawson, LHP Nick Margevicius, and RHP David Bednar
Behind the group knocking on the door to the MLB, the Padres have another wave of talent who just came through High A. 23 year old Michel Baez was signed out of Cuba for $3 million two offseasons ago, and after a dominant stateside debut in 2017 (2.54 ERA, 89/10 K/BB), he continued the good work in 2018 by posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA San Antonio. He's a huge guy at 6'8", which makes his mid 90's fastball and full arsenal of secondaries very difficult to square up. He hasn't been the most consistent pitcher, sometimes losing his command and seeing his fastball dip into the low 90's, but Baez has the makings of a #2 or #3 starter with just a few more tweaks in his mechanics. Otherwise, he should fare just fine as an impact reliever if he can't get more consistent with his stuff. 20 year old Adrian Morejon is another Cuban who signed for $11 million back in 2016, and he had a strong season by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at Lake Elsinore (with one rehab appearance in complex ball). He's a very different pitcher from Baez in that he's just six feet tall and left handed, but he still brings the heat with a mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a couple of changeups, and he has been more consistent with his stuff despite being three years younger. Durability is an issue for a smaller guy like Morejon, and the missed time in 2018 didn't help alleviate those worries. If healthy, Morejon looks like a potential #2 starter, but that's always a big "if" and we'll have to see how he fares in 2019. Further durability issues could push him to the bullpen, where he should be very strong. 20 year old Andres Munoz had a breakout season in 2018, posting a 0.73 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings between short season Tri-City and San Antonio, managing to pitch very well in AA as a teenager. He's purely a reliever and is an absolute flamethrower, sitting in the upper 90's with his fastball and adding an up and coming slider, though he struggles with control and needs to prove his durability as well. Now healthy in 2019, Munoz has a chance to improve that control, and if he can further improve his slider (he'll be just 20 for all of 2019), he has a shot to be a major league closer. 21 year old Reggie Lawson survived the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, posting a 4.69 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 117/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" righty isn't of the same prospect caliber as Baez and Morejon, but he shows a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball to go along with some durability and projectability, giving him the chance to be a #4 starter if he can improve his command a little. If not, his fastball/curveball combination should play well in the bullpen anyways, and he'll get a crack at AA in 2019. 22 year old Nick Margevicius raised some eyebrows in 2018 with his strong season, posting a 3.60 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 146/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. He's a 6'5" lefty with great command, and even though he barely sits in the low 90's with his fastball, he gets plenty of strikeouts by getting ahead in the count and dropping his great changeup on opposing hitters. The Padres have had great success with Chris Paddack, the right handed version of Margevicius, and will hope for more of the same here. Lastly, 24 year old David Bednar is purely a relief prospect, but he pitched well enough in the California League to warrant some attention with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 96/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings at Lake Elsinore. He misses bats with a mid 90's fastball, though his secondaries and command are currently behind and he doesn't have the same upside as Munoz. The curveball gets swings and misses and improved command in 2019 could put him on the fast track to the majors, where he could be a strong middle reliever.
Low Minors Pitchers: LHP MacKenzie Gore, RHP Luis Patino, LHP Osvaldo Hernandez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Henry Henry, and RHP Anderson Espinoza
This group of pitchers is farther away, but it's still a great set of potential impact starters who give the Padres yet another wave of pitching sitting in the minors. 20 year old MacKenzie Gore, the third overall pick of the 2017 draft from high school in Southeastern North Carolina, had an up-and-down but overall successful transition to full season ball in 2018 by posting a 4.45 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne. Gore put up some of the craziest high school pitching numbers ever seen at Whiteville High School, going 33-1 with a 0.11 ERA and 332 strikeouts in 157.2 innings, over which he allowed just two runs. Coming from a small school in rural North Carolina, it's understandable that Gore was a bit raw in his first taste of pro ball, and blisters made it difficult for him to keep his stuff sharp in 2018. However, when healthy, Gore checks every box for what you want in a future ace; he's a 6'3" lefty with no weaknesses, tossing a low to mid 90's fastball and adding a full array of secondaries – all of which flash plus – that he can command well for a young pitcher, and his competitiveness and work ethic are considered top of the scale. Healthy in 2019, Gore will have a chance to break out and move toward his ultimate ceiling of being a true ace. 19 year old Luis Patino was signed for just $120,000 out of Colombia in 2016, but he has been fantastic ever since joining pro ball and posted a 2.16 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings at Fort Wayne in 2018, pitching the whole season at 18 years old. The teenager has a mid 90's fastball and a pair of great breaking balls, enabling him to miss plenty of bats even against older competition. He commands everything pretty well for a pitcher his age, and he's only getting stronger. Eight months younger than Gore and already boasting a better track record, Patino has true ace potential and could emerge as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball with a successful transition to High A in 2019. 20 year old Osvaldo Hernandez had a quiet breakout season in 2018, posting a 1.81 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 109.2 innings with Fort Wayne. Hernandez has a low 90's fastball and just decent offspeed stuff (though his curveball is currently his best pitch) but controls the strike zone and mixes his pitches well enough to shut down opposing offenses, at least in Class A. The six foot lefty will have to continue to hit the corners if he wants to succeed at the higher levels, but he has the makings of a back-end starter down the road. 19 year old Ryan Weathers was the Padres' first round pick (seventh overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2018, and he quickly responded by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an 18/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.1 innings between complex ball and Fort Wayne. Despite his age, Weathers is actually more about command and durability than about pure upside, as he's a physically developed, 6'1" lefty with a low 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup. He should be a quick mover as far as high school pitchers go because he already has a pretty clear idea of how to pitch and use what he has, and he has mid-rotation upside with less risk than the typical high school arm. 20 year old Henry Henry has a great name but is also a solid pitching prospect, having posted a 4.54 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 55/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Fort Wayne in 2018. The 6'4" righty is very projectable and currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a solid curveball, and while his command isn't pinpoint, he's not wild and he can hit his spots. Adding some good weight could get him into the mid 90's with his fastball and make him a very interesting rotation candidate down the line, though he still has a good shot to be a solid fastball/curveball reliever. Lastly, 20 year old Anderson Espinoza missed the 2017 and 2018 seasons with Tommy John surgery, but the Padres have their fingers crossed that he's healthy and ready to get back to working towards his immense upside in 2019. He's a skinny six footer with a mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a very advanced changeup for his age, generally commanding everything well and looking like a future ace on his best days. However, we haven't seen him in game action since 2016, so it's hard to know exactly what his stuff will look like this season, but he turns just 21 during spring training and still has plenty of time to get back on track. Durability is definitely a concern given his size and injury history, so if he can't hold up in a rotation, he has high upside as a hard throwing reliever as well.
Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA San Antonio Missions*, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, Short Season Tri-City Dust Devils, and complex level AZL and DSL Padres
*AA affiliate will move from San Antonio, TX to Amarillo, TX in 2019
The Headliner: SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
20 year old Fernando Tatis Jr., the son of former major leaguer Fernando Tatis, besides having a great birthday that also happens to be mine (January 2nd crew), is the only other player that can really give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a run for his money as the top prospect in the game right now. As a teenager in 2018, Tatis slashed .286/.355/.507 with 16 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA San Antonio, putting up great numbers despite watching his season end with a thumb injury in July. He's already a complete player who does everything well, showing power, the ability to get on base, speed, and strong defense at shortstop, all at a very young age. I'm not concerned about the higher than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio because Tatis was just 19 years old in AA, and he barrels the ball up consistently enough that it won't be a problem in the majors in 2019. Set to play all of this season at just 20 years old, he should be a strong candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year Award as he looks to fulfill his projections as a 20+ homer bat with high on-base percentages, double digit stolen bases, and great defense: a perennial All Star projection.
High Minors Hitters: 2B Luis Urias, C/OF Francisco Mejia, 3B Jason Vosler, OF Josh Naylor, C/1B Austin Allen, OF Buddy Reed, and 3B Hudson Potts
The Padres are deeper in pitching, but I'll start with the upper level hitters behind Fernando Tatis Jr. who are set to make an impact in the very near future. 21 year old Luis Urias slashed .296/.398/.447 with eight home runs and a 109/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AAA El Paso, then slashed .208/.264/.354 with a pair of home runs and a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 major league games. At 5'9", he doesn't hit for much power, but Urias is a steady singles hitter who draws plenty of walks, avoids strikeouts for the most part, and overall projects to post high on-base percentages. He should be a steady producer for years to come. 23 year old Francisco Mejia is a very well known prospect, having been the top prospect in the Indians' system before he was traded to San Diego in the Brad Hand trade. Mejia slashed .293/.338/.471 with 14 home runs and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AAA, also slashing .179/.258/.375 with three home runs and a 19/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 21 major league games. Mejia has high upside but also comes with plenty of questions, as he is a very solid hitter who can consistently barrel the ball up and spray deep line drives and home runs all over the park, though he is unproven at the major league level despite all his success in the high minors. Defensively, the Padres continue to be hopeful that he can stick as a catcher with his cannon arm, but his defense overall is just so-so. There is a chance he ends up in the outfield or even at third base, where he is also just so-so, but his potential for 15-20 home runs annually and high on-base percentages means that the Padres will be very patient. 25 year old Jason Vosler, who was acquired from the Cubs this offseason, looks like more of a bench bat after slashing .251/.330/.467 with 23 home runs and a 149/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at AA and AAA in 2018. He has power and draws a lot of walks, but he likely won't hit for enough average to ever warrant a starting position, especially with Manny Machado now blocking him at third base. He's an average defensive infielder and will warrant consideration as a power hitting pinch hitter. Dropping down a level, 21 year old Josh Naylor projects to be an impact hitter at the major league level. In 2018, Naylor slashed .297/.383/.447 with 17 home runs and a 69/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA San Antonio, showing some power and great plate discipline. A stocky guy at 5'11" and 250 pounds, you'd expect more power out of Naylor, but his keen eye at the plate and high on-base percentages make up for that and he should hit his way into the starting lineup down the line. Defensively, he doesn't provide much value, playing an average first base and a mediocre left field, but at this point the bat looks like it is enough to carry him. 25 year old Austin Allen finds himself in a somewhat similar position, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .290/.351/.506 with 22 home runs and a 97/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at San Antonio. While Naylor has better plate discipline, the 6'2" Allen has shown more power at this point (keep in mind that Naylor is nearly three and a half years younger) and has the defensive edge because he *might* be able to stick as a catcher. His defense there is mediocre and he just turned 25 in January, but the Padres still hope to refine him to the point where he is playable back there and his power can help him be a bat-first catcher. If he is forced to move to first base, he's still a strong enough hitter that he should be able to stick on a roster and even earn some starts. 23 year old Buddy Reed has had a roller coaster ride for a career, looking like a potential top ten pick for the 2016 draft before an up and down junior season at Florida knocked him to the second round (48th overall), then he struggled in pro ball in both 2016 (.254/.326/.337) and 2017 (.234/.290/.396). However, he turned it around in 2018, slashing .271/.319/.435 with 13 home runs, 51 stolen bases, and a 147/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. He was much better at hitter-friendly Lake Elsinore (.324/.371/.549) than he was at much more pitcher-friendly San Antonio (.179/.227/.235), which raises questions about his ability to hit at the major league level, but he still retains high upside despite turning 24 in April. Reed is exceptionally fast and plays great defense in center field, plus his wiry frame helps him hit for some power at the plate. However, if he wants to end up more than just a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement, he really has to improve his plate discipline in a hurry. Lastly, 20 year old Hudson Potts was actually the Padres first round pick (24th overall, then known as Hudson Sanchez) out of a Dallas area high school in that same 2016 draft, and he slashed .260/.335/.455 with 19 home runs and a 145/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games between Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. Like Reed, he was much better at Lake Elsinore (.281/.350/.498) than he was at San Antonio (.154/.258/.231), though being three and a half years younger does buy him slack. He has some power and at 6'3", he looks like he could grow into more, and while he strikes out a lot, he has been young for the levels he has played at and does possess an advanced bat. Potts isn't a great defender at third base but isn't a liability either, and he is somewhat of a sleeper in the deep system he plays in. Watch for Potts to draw more attention in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Edward Olivares, OF Tirso Ornelas, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, C Luis Campusano, SS Xavier Edwards, and 2B Tucupita Marcano
The best hitters in the Padres' system are up near the top, but they have a whole group of young guys in the low and mid minors that could break out and join that group in 2019. 22 year old Edward Olivares, acquired from the Blue Jays for Yangervis Solarte last offseason, looks like a solid fourth outfielder after slashing .277/.321/.429 with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 102/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at hitter-friendly High A Lake Elsinore in 2018. Olivares is a speedy centerfielder known for his great outfield defense, adding a very good feel for the barrel and plenty of gap power at the plate to round out his skill set. Overall, the bat is likely just a little too light if he wants to be a long-term starter in the majors, but with the ability to post solid on-base percentages and quite a few extra base hits, he should be a very useful fourth outfielder. 18 year old Tirso Ornelas, who grew up right across the border from San Diego in Tijuana, burst onto the scene in 2018 by slashing .252/.341/.392 with eight home runs and a 68/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 games at Class A Fort Wayne. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but Ornelas just turned 18 right before the start of the season and managed very respectable numbers against full season competition (most notably an 11.3% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate). In addition to his very mature approach at the plate, he has room to grow into more power at 6'3" and is a prime candidate for an offensive breakout in the hitter-friendly High A California League in 2019. Defensively, the teenager should be a solid right fielder. 19 year old Jeisson Rosario has a similar profile, having slashed .271/.368/.353 with three home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 108/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. He's also very young, just five months older than Ornelas, and he also has a very patient approach at the plate that allows him to draw plenty of walks. He might strike out a bit more and he doesn't have quite as much power, but he's faster and also has an advanced bat for his age. Ornelas is the better prospect at this point but it will be interesting to see Rosario develop alongside him in the outfield. 19 year old Gabriel Arias slashed .240/.302/.352 with six home runs and a 149/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games with Fort Wayne, and like Ornelas and Rosario, he was extremely young for the level. While his bat isn't as developed as Ornelas's or even Rosario's, he's the best defender in the group with a slick glove and a strong arm at shortstop, buying his bat plenty of time to develop. He has some gap power at this point and isn't afraid to draw a walk, so he has the building blocks to eventually build himself into a starting-caliber shortstop down the road. (though Fernando Tatis Jr. might have something to say about that). 20 year old Luis Campusano was a second round pick (39th overall) out of an Augusta, Georgia high school in 2017, then he slashed .288/.345/.365 with three home runs and a 43/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. Known for his power as a high schooler, that hasn't quite translated into pro ball, but catchers take longer to develop and his .345 on-base percentage was still encouraging. He's a work in progress defensively but shows the tools to be above average in that regard, and if he starts tapping into his raw power more consistently, he could give the Padres a third legitimate catcher behind Francisco Mejia and Austin Allen. Moving farther down in the system, the Padres have a couple of short season bats to replace the big crew graduating from Class A in 2018. 19 year old Xavier Edwards was a competitive balance pick (38th overall) in 2018 out of a South Florida high school, and he slashed .346/.453/.409 with 22 stolen bases and a 25/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and short season Tri-City in his pro debut. Those numbers were exactly in line with what was expected from Edwards, as he brings great plate discipline and feel for the barrel along with lots of speed and defensive value. Because he lacks power, it's important that he continues to spray line drives into the gaps and draw his share of walks. Defensively, he is so-so at shortstop but would be a well above average defender at second base. Overall, he has the makings of a prototypical leadoff man. Lastly, 19 year old Tucupita Marcano, who was apparently named for his hometown of Tucupita, Venezuela, slashed .366/.450/.438 with one home run, 15 stolen bases, and a 16/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in complex ball and at Tri-City. Marcano tore up the complex level Arizona League (.395/.497/.444) but was also strong in short season ball (.314/.355/.429) despite not turning 19 until after the season, showing advanced plate discipline and the ability to make consistent hard contact. He's a decent middle infielder who may be forced from shortstop to second base, but with his potential to post very high on-base percentages, his defense may not matter and 2019 could be the year he really establishes himself in this system.
High Minors Pitchers: LHP Logan Allen, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Jacob Nix, RHP Chris Paddack, and RHP Lake Bachar
The Padres' great wealth of arms is scattered pretty evenly throughout the system, which means that there are a couple of true impact arms knocking on the door right now even after 2016 draftees Eric Lauer (first round from Kent State) and Joey Lucchesi (fourth round from Southeast Missouri State) graduated in 2018. 21 year old Logan Allen, who came over from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel trade of 2015, has dominated the minor leagues and put up a huge season in 2018, going 14-6 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 151/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.2 innings at AA San Antonio and AAA El Paso. The 6'3" lefty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondaries, though only his changeup can be considered a swing and miss pitch. Instead of blowing the ball by hitters, Allen finds success by mixing his pitches and maintaining his stuff deep into ballgames, giving him a pretty clear #3 or #4 starter projection with fairly low risk. He should be able to hold down a major league rotation spot for most or all of 2019. 24 year old Cal Quantrill is a Canadian righty out of Stanford who was a first round pick (eighth overall in 2016), though he had an up and down 2018 and posted a 4.80 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 123/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings between San Antonio and El Paso. Quantrill, like Allen, is a pitchability guy who only throws in the low to mid 90's but who adds a full array of secondaries headlined by a great changeup. He has better command than Allen but has less deception in his delivery and doesn't get as many strikeouts, and that command does come and go. When he's on, though, he looks fantastic; on June 3rd, he struck out ten over seven shutout innings against the AA Springfield Cardinals, allowing just five baserunners along the way. Quantrill is going to need his command to be "on" more than it's "off" in the majors, where he could be a very solid #3 starter but who could slip back to a #4 or a #5 if he can't get more consistent. To wrap up the Allen/Quantrill comparison: Allen is almost two and a half years younger than Quantrill and is consistently average with his command, while Quantrill fluctuates anywhere from average to above average in that regard. However, as a lefty, Allen gets more deception on his stuff and can get away with that average command. 23 year old Jacob Nix, who was caught up in the Brady Aiken draft mess of 2014 with the Astros, was the Padres' third round pick (86th overall) in 2016 and pitched well in the high minors in 2018, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 44/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at San Antonio and El Paso. However, he struggled in a brief MLB call-up with a 7.02 ERA and a 21/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings, so he'll try again in 2019. Nix is a 6'4" righty with a straight, low to mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a decent changeup, and he does a very good job of throwing strikes in general. Sometimes he can be a little bit too much over the plate, which led to him allowing eight home runs in nine major league starts in 2018, but a few further tweaks in his command could make him a solid #4 starter in the near future. Moving down a level, 23 year old Chris Paddack had as big a bounce-back season as you can have in 2018, posting a 2.10 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 120/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio a year after missing all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery. Paddack now has a 1.82 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and a 230/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 177.2 career minor league innings since being drafted in the eighth round out of an Austin-area high school by the Marlins in 2015, as he has showcased exceptional command to go along with a low 90's fastball, a mediocre curveball, and a fantastic changeup that serves as a true swing and miss pitch. Paddack has some stiff competition for rotation spots to deal with in the near future, so the Padres can be patient with him and help him build his stamina back up after throwing just 132.1 innings from 2016-2018, but after that he could be a very useful mid-rotation starter. Lastly, 23 year old Lake Bachar posted a 4.68 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an 80/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings at Lake Elsinore and San Antonio, though those stats don't count two strong appearances in the AA Texas League playoffs (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K). His stuff isn't great, but he has a full array of secondary pitches and commands everything decently well, also getting good deception with his high three quarters arm angle. He's unlikely to stick in the rotation in a system as deep as this one, but he could be a useful long reliever in the near future.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Michel Baez, LHP Adrian Morejon, RHP Andres Munoz, RHP Reggie Lawson, LHP Nick Margevicius, and RHP David Bednar
Behind the group knocking on the door to the MLB, the Padres have another wave of talent who just came through High A. 23 year old Michel Baez was signed out of Cuba for $3 million two offseasons ago, and after a dominant stateside debut in 2017 (2.54 ERA, 89/10 K/BB), he continued the good work in 2018 by posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA San Antonio. He's a huge guy at 6'8", which makes his mid 90's fastball and full arsenal of secondaries very difficult to square up. He hasn't been the most consistent pitcher, sometimes losing his command and seeing his fastball dip into the low 90's, but Baez has the makings of a #2 or #3 starter with just a few more tweaks in his mechanics. Otherwise, he should fare just fine as an impact reliever if he can't get more consistent with his stuff. 20 year old Adrian Morejon is another Cuban who signed for $11 million back in 2016, and he had a strong season by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at Lake Elsinore (with one rehab appearance in complex ball). He's a very different pitcher from Baez in that he's just six feet tall and left handed, but he still brings the heat with a mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a couple of changeups, and he has been more consistent with his stuff despite being three years younger. Durability is an issue for a smaller guy like Morejon, and the missed time in 2018 didn't help alleviate those worries. If healthy, Morejon looks like a potential #2 starter, but that's always a big "if" and we'll have to see how he fares in 2019. Further durability issues could push him to the bullpen, where he should be very strong. 20 year old Andres Munoz had a breakout season in 2018, posting a 0.73 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings between short season Tri-City and San Antonio, managing to pitch very well in AA as a teenager. He's purely a reliever and is an absolute flamethrower, sitting in the upper 90's with his fastball and adding an up and coming slider, though he struggles with control and needs to prove his durability as well. Now healthy in 2019, Munoz has a chance to improve that control, and if he can further improve his slider (he'll be just 20 for all of 2019), he has a shot to be a major league closer. 21 year old Reggie Lawson survived the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, posting a 4.69 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 117/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" righty isn't of the same prospect caliber as Baez and Morejon, but he shows a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball to go along with some durability and projectability, giving him the chance to be a #4 starter if he can improve his command a little. If not, his fastball/curveball combination should play well in the bullpen anyways, and he'll get a crack at AA in 2019. 22 year old Nick Margevicius raised some eyebrows in 2018 with his strong season, posting a 3.60 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 146/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. He's a 6'5" lefty with great command, and even though he barely sits in the low 90's with his fastball, he gets plenty of strikeouts by getting ahead in the count and dropping his great changeup on opposing hitters. The Padres have had great success with Chris Paddack, the right handed version of Margevicius, and will hope for more of the same here. Lastly, 24 year old David Bednar is purely a relief prospect, but he pitched well enough in the California League to warrant some attention with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 96/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings at Lake Elsinore. He misses bats with a mid 90's fastball, though his secondaries and command are currently behind and he doesn't have the same upside as Munoz. The curveball gets swings and misses and improved command in 2019 could put him on the fast track to the majors, where he could be a strong middle reliever.
Low Minors Pitchers: LHP MacKenzie Gore, RHP Luis Patino, LHP Osvaldo Hernandez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Henry Henry, and RHP Anderson Espinoza
This group of pitchers is farther away, but it's still a great set of potential impact starters who give the Padres yet another wave of pitching sitting in the minors. 20 year old MacKenzie Gore, the third overall pick of the 2017 draft from high school in Southeastern North Carolina, had an up-and-down but overall successful transition to full season ball in 2018 by posting a 4.45 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne. Gore put up some of the craziest high school pitching numbers ever seen at Whiteville High School, going 33-1 with a 0.11 ERA and 332 strikeouts in 157.2 innings, over which he allowed just two runs. Coming from a small school in rural North Carolina, it's understandable that Gore was a bit raw in his first taste of pro ball, and blisters made it difficult for him to keep his stuff sharp in 2018. However, when healthy, Gore checks every box for what you want in a future ace; he's a 6'3" lefty with no weaknesses, tossing a low to mid 90's fastball and adding a full array of secondaries – all of which flash plus – that he can command well for a young pitcher, and his competitiveness and work ethic are considered top of the scale. Healthy in 2019, Gore will have a chance to break out and move toward his ultimate ceiling of being a true ace. 19 year old Luis Patino was signed for just $120,000 out of Colombia in 2016, but he has been fantastic ever since joining pro ball and posted a 2.16 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings at Fort Wayne in 2018, pitching the whole season at 18 years old. The teenager has a mid 90's fastball and a pair of great breaking balls, enabling him to miss plenty of bats even against older competition. He commands everything pretty well for a pitcher his age, and he's only getting stronger. Eight months younger than Gore and already boasting a better track record, Patino has true ace potential and could emerge as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball with a successful transition to High A in 2019. 20 year old Osvaldo Hernandez had a quiet breakout season in 2018, posting a 1.81 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 109.2 innings with Fort Wayne. Hernandez has a low 90's fastball and just decent offspeed stuff (though his curveball is currently his best pitch) but controls the strike zone and mixes his pitches well enough to shut down opposing offenses, at least in Class A. The six foot lefty will have to continue to hit the corners if he wants to succeed at the higher levels, but he has the makings of a back-end starter down the road. 19 year old Ryan Weathers was the Padres' first round pick (seventh overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2018, and he quickly responded by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an 18/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.1 innings between complex ball and Fort Wayne. Despite his age, Weathers is actually more about command and durability than about pure upside, as he's a physically developed, 6'1" lefty with a low 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup. He should be a quick mover as far as high school pitchers go because he already has a pretty clear idea of how to pitch and use what he has, and he has mid-rotation upside with less risk than the typical high school arm. 20 year old Henry Henry has a great name but is also a solid pitching prospect, having posted a 4.54 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 55/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Fort Wayne in 2018. The 6'4" righty is very projectable and currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a solid curveball, and while his command isn't pinpoint, he's not wild and he can hit his spots. Adding some good weight could get him into the mid 90's with his fastball and make him a very interesting rotation candidate down the line, though he still has a good shot to be a solid fastball/curveball reliever. Lastly, 20 year old Anderson Espinoza missed the 2017 and 2018 seasons with Tommy John surgery, but the Padres have their fingers crossed that he's healthy and ready to get back to working towards his immense upside in 2019. He's a skinny six footer with a mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a very advanced changeup for his age, generally commanding everything well and looking like a future ace on his best days. However, we haven't seen him in game action since 2016, so it's hard to know exactly what his stuff will look like this season, but he turns just 21 during spring training and still has plenty of time to get back on track. Durability is definitely a concern given his size and injury history, so if he can't hold up in a rotation, he has high upside as a hard throwing reliever as well.
Thursday, February 28, 2019
Reviewing the Atlanta Braves Farm System
Despite a bonus scandal that cost them Kevin Maitan and a slew of other prospects as well as severe restrictions on international signing, the Braves' farm system remains one of the best in baseball. Their collection of pitching is unmatched anywhere in the game, and it could be the best group of young pitchers in recent memory. The Braves also have a great group of hitters at various positions at their disposal, and the newly-contending major league club is very happy that the majority of their best prospects are closer, not further, from the majors.
Affiliates: AAA Gwinnett Braves, AA Mississippi Braves, High A Florida Fire Frogs, Class A Rome Braves, rookie level Danville Braves, and complex level GCL and DSL Braves
MLB-Ready Pitchers: RHP Mike Soroka, RHP Kyle Wright, RHP Touki Toussaint, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Bryse Wilson, and LHP Luiz Gohara
This is the core of the Braves' farm system, and honestly, it is probably the most loaded individual section of any of these thirty farm system reviews that I'm writing. The Braves have so much young pitching ready to make the MLB roster that they will be able to include some serious top prospects in trade negotiations in 2019 and not break a sweat. 21 year old Mike Soroka would be the best prospect in this group if he were healthy, though unfortunately that is not the case. Soroka posted a 1.76 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 34/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings between Class A Rome and AAA Gwinnett, as well as a 3.51 ERA and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 major league innings, but he missed time with shoulder trouble and has again been feeling shoulder discomfort during spring training. He's a 6'5" Canadian righty, but rather than throw hard, he lives on his exceptional command and pitchability. Soroka sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and changeup, but he is so adept at mixing his pitches and hitting his spots that everything plays up and that he has earned a comparison or two to Greg Maddux. Even without high strikeout totals, Soroka has ace or #2 upside, and if healthy, he could be an impact starter and NL Rookie of the Year candidate in 2019. 23 year old Kyle Wright was the Braves' first round pick (fifth overall) in 2017 out of Vanderbilt, and he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 133/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 138 innings between AA Mississippi and Gwinnett, following that up with a 4.50 ERA and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio over six major league innings. Wright is a 6'4" righty with some of the best stuff in the system, throwing in the mid 90's and adding an exceptional array of secondaries, including two distinct breaking balls in a great curveball and a very good slider which can both miss bats and a changeup that has made a lot of progress. He's inconsistent with his command, though, and when it fails him, he can get hit hard. Throwing strikes and getting ahead in the count will be the key for him if he wants to reach his ace upside, but he still has a very high floor as a #3 or #4 starter who can compete in 2019. 22 year old Touki Toussaint came over from the Diamondbacks for Bronson Arroyo in 2015, and when the Braves traded for Dansby Swanson six months later, that put Arizona's first round picks from 2014 and 2015 both in the Atlanta system. Toussaint, the 16th overall pick of the 2014 draft out of a South Florida high school, rebounded from a rough 2017 (4.53 ERA, 167/64 K/BB) to post a huge season with a 2.38 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 163/53 strikeout to walk ratio in 136.1 innings between Mississippi and Gwinnett, then put up a 4.03 ERA and a 32/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 major league innings. He is a 6'3" righty with an electric arm, one that pumps fastballs consistently in the mid 90's and adds a swing and miss curveball, and his command has steadily improved throughout his pro career. 2018 must have been the tipping point because he finally broke out, and he could be a #2 or #3 starter in the major leagues if he can continue to improve that command. If not, his stuff is good enough to make him a solid back-end starter even without command, and he could also thrive as a fastball/curveball righty in the bullpen. 21 year old Kolby Allard, the Braves' first round pick (14th overall) in 2015 out of a Southern California high school, posted a 2.72 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an 89/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.1 innings at Gwinnett in 2018, then put up a 12.38 ERA and a 3/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight major league innings. He sits right around 90 with his fastball but adds a great curveball and changeup, and his solid command helps everything play up. Still, he has some tweener risk and might end up more of a #4 or #5 starter rather than a mid-rotation guy. Further improving his command could help him reach that #3 upside, but we'll have to see how his extended major league trial goes in 2019. 21 year old Bryse Wilson took just two years to make the majors after being drafted in the fourth round out of a North Carolina high school in 2016, though he is admittedly not quite as refined as Soroka, Wright, Allard, or even Toussaint. The 6'1" righty posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 143/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings between High A Florida, Mississippi, and Gwinnett, showing a low 90's fastball, a decent slider, and good enough command to make his stuff play up. He doesn't have the ceiling of some of the other arms on this list but he should be a very productive #3 or #4 starter in the near future who can eat plenty of innings. Lastly, 22 year old Luiz Gohara was widely considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball after the 2017 season (2.62 ERA, 147/44 K/BB), but his 2018 season was about as trying a season as any player could have. His father died during the offseason and his mother had significant heart surgery which forced him to leave the team briefly in May to visit her in Brazil, and he also dealt with an ankle injury and weight gain, reportedly reaching nearly 315 pounds. He's in better shape now (reportedly down to 270 pounds) but has reportedly dealt with shoulder soreness in spring training, but he will look to erase a 2018 where he posted a 4.81 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 59/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 innings at Mississippi and Gwinnett (plus a 5.95 ERA and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 19.2 major league innings). Gohara is a 6'3" lefty that has elicited comparisons to C.C. Sabathia due to his body type and velocity, sitting in the upper 90's while adding a nasty slider when in his pre-2018 form. He has been a bit more inconsistent with his command, but hopefully a smoother ride in 2019 will help him improve there and fulfill his potential as a mid-rotation starter, though the shoulder issues are troubling.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Ian Anderson, LHP Joey Wentz, LHP Kyle Muller, RHP Huascar Ynoa, LHP Thomas Burrows, and RHP Patrick Weigel
The Braves' aren't quite as deep in the middle of their system, but that is natural given the way they tend to develop pitching and they still have a great group of arms in the next wave. This group comes heavily from the 2016 draft and also features a lot of left handers (lefty Tucker Davidson just missed this section), which can back up the mostly right-handed current wave (see above). 20 year old Ian Anderson signed an under-slot deal as the third overall pick of the 2016 draft out of high school near Albany, New York, and he had a breakout 2018 by posting a 2.49 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 142/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings at High A Florida and AA Mississippi. Anderson has a mid 90's fastball and a solid curveball/changeup set, and with his command improving steadily as he has developed, and further development along his current track could make him a #2 starter. As it stands, Anderson has a very good shot to end up a mid-rotation starter with the possibility for more. 21 year old Joey Wentz was a competitive balance pick (40th overall) in the same 2016 draft as Anderson, coming out of a high school in the Kansas City area. Wentz posted a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 53/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings at Florida in 2018, missing time with injuries along the way. The 6'5" lefty has a low 90's fastball when healthy and solid secondary stuff, though his projectable frame hasn't yielded quite as much extra velocity as was hoped when he was drafted and his stuff flattened out at times in 2018. He'll have to get more consistent with, well, everything in 2018 if he doesn't want to get lost in the massive group of starting pitchers in the system, but he maintains high upside and he's certainly worth following in 2019, though he does run reliever risk at this point. 21 year old Kyle Muller, the Braves' second round pick (44th overall) out of a Dallas high school in that same 2016 draft, moved ahead of Wentz this year by posting a 3.03 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 129/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 139.2 innings at Class A Rome, Florida, and Mississippi. He's a big 6'6" lefty with a low 90's fastball and pretty good secondary stuff, though like Wentz, he has been inconsistent in pro ball. He seemed to right the ship a bit in 2018, and the Braves are hoping for even more of a breakout in 2019 if he can put everything together. Wentz and Muller both have a lot to prove in 2019, retaining high upside as tall lefties with powerful arms. 20 year old Huascar Ynoa, over from the Twins in the Jaime Garcia trade, posted a 4.56 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 131/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 116.1 innings between Rome and Florida in 2018, though he was much better at the lower level (3.63 ERA, 100/42 K/BB) than the upper level (8.03 ERA, 31/12 K/BB). Ynoa is a 6'3" righty with a mid 90's fastball that enabled him to succeed in Class A, though his lack of secondary stuff and control were exposed when he reached High A. He's a raw talent with plenty of upside and arm strength, though he might take a bit longer to reach the majors than the other names on this list and carries a lot more risk. On the bright side, he doesn't turn 21 until May. 24 year old Thomas Burrows was actually the Mariners' fourth round pick in the same 2016 draft as all the above players (minus Ynoa), having been taken eight picks after Bryse Wilson and coming over to Atlanta with Luiz Gohara in the Mallex Smith trade. Burrows, out of the University of Alabama, is strictly a reliever and posted a 2.66 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an 86/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings between Rome, Florida, and Mississippi in 2018, showing a major league ready fastball/slider combination. He throws from a low, almost sidearm release point, giving him added deception and making his stuff play up. The 6'1" lefty needs to work on his command, which will be the difference between him being a middle reliever or something more. Lastly, 24 year old Patrick Weigel became one of the Braves' top prospects after a huge 2016 season (2.47 ERA, 152/55 K/BB) but struggled when promoted to AAA in 2017 and hurt his elbow, missing the rest of that season and almost all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery (he did return to throw four shutout innings in complex ball). Weigel has a low to mid 90's fastball and a full array of secondary pitches, though none stand out as true swing-and-miss pitches and he'll have to rely on mixing his pitches to be an effective starter. The surgery caused him to fall behind the hoard of pitching prospects who made strides in 2018, but he has a shot at being a #4 or #5 starter in the near future.
Low Minors Pitchers: RHP Freddy Tarnok, RHP Alan Rangel, RHP Jasseel De La Cruz, RHP Tristan Beck, RHP Trey Riley
While the upper minors boast nothing but headliners and the mid minors carry guys like Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, and Joey Wentz, the low minors don't quite have a headliner, and that's partially due to the failure of the team to sign 2018 eighth overall pick Carter Stewart, a fireballing 6'6" righty with a power curve. This group consists of five pitchers with the potential to break out in 2019, led by 20 year old Freddy Tarnok. A third rounder (80th overall) in 2017 out of high school near Tampa, Tarnok posted a 3.96 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an 83/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at Class A Rome as the Braves worked to transition him from the bullpen to the rotation in 2018. The results weren't great (1.26 ERA, 49/24 K/BB as a reliever vs 6.26 ERA, 34/17 K/BB as a starter), but the 6'3" righty is extremely projectable and already easily sits in the low 90's. His secondary stuff, command, and general durability all need work, but he's also relatively new to pitching and the Braves think they can transform him into a mid-rotation starter. Behind him, 21 year olds Alan Rangel and Jasseel De La Cruz couldn't be more different as pitchers despite being teammates throughout 2018. Rangel posted a 4.09 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings at Rome, while De La Cruz had a 4.83 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 65/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings at the same level. Rangel is a pitchability righty who relies on his strong secondary stuff and his command to get by, while De La Cruz blows his low to mid 90's fastball by hitters with little in the way of secondaries or command. In that sense, De La Cruz is more of a similar pitcher to Tarnok, while Rangel has a little bit of Mike Soroka in him (although obviously not on the same level). Personally, I like Rangel just a bit more due to the success that Soroka had in this system, but De La Cruz definitely has the higher upside and could blow past Rangel with some mechanical adjustments. 22 year old Tristan Beck was a fourth round pick out of Stanford in 2018, tossing 4.2 shutout innings while striking out seven and walking two over 4.1 complex level innings afterwards. Beck figured to be a first round draft pick as a sophomore in 2017, but a back injury forced him out for the entire season and he came back with slightly diminished stuff in 2018, causing him to fall to the fourth round (though he still signed above-slot). Beck is a projectable 6'4" righty with a low 90's fastball, an inconsistent curveball that looked better in 2016 than it did in 2018, and a very good changeup, all of which he commands well. If he can stay healthy and the Braves can get him back to spinning that curveball effectively, he has high upside as a #2 or #3 starter due to his feel for pitching, but he also has a lot of questions to answer for someone who will be 23 in June. Lastly, 20 year old Trey Riley was a fifth round pick out of an Illinois junior college in 2018, then posted an 8.00 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and a 13/10 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings at rookie level Danville. The Braves envision Riley as a starter, though he has a ton of work to do if that is to happen. He currently sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a nasty slider, but he struggles to throw strikes, throws with effort, and lacks a changeup at this point. I feel that he is destined for the bullpen in this deep system, where he could sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and use that slider as a true swing and miss pitch regularly. Still, he'll have to answer the command question and learn to throw strikes.
The Hitters: 3B Austin Riley, OF Cristian Pache, UT Travis Demeritte, OF Drew Waters, OF Greyson Jenista, C William Contreras, and 3B CJ Alexander
While the Braves' position player depth isn't nearly as extensive as its pitching depth, they still have a solid group of guys that includes quite a few impact players. 21 year old Austin Riley, a former competitive balance pick (41st overall) out of a Memphis-area high school in 2015, is the best hitter, having slashed .294/.360/.522 with 19 home runs and a 129/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games between AA Mississippi, AAA Gwinnett, and complex level rehab. He has plenty of power and also added 30 doubles in 2018, and he could be a consistent 25-30 home run bat in the majors. His plate discipline seemingly could use some work, but he has continued to produce with every promotion and it may not end up hindering him in the majors. Josh Donaldson is the place holder at third base for now, but look for Riley to break in at some point during 2019 before taking over as the full-time starting third baseman in 2020, where he could be an All Star. While Riley has the superior bat, 20 year old Cristian Pache is inarguably the most exciting position-playing prospect in this system. In 2018, the Dominican outfielder slashed .279/.307/.410 with nine home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 97/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Florida and Mississippi, the nine home runs being a very pleasant surprise after he went homerless in 2016 and 2017. However, Pache is really known for his defense, as he might be the best defensive center fielder in the minors with his blazing speed, great range, and terrific arm. It's not often that you get players with that kind of defensive package, as great defenders typically pair a cannon arm with average range or a decent arm with terrific range. Offensively, Pache proved himself against High A pitching in 2018 (.285/.311/.431) and only turned 20 over the offseason, so while he's never expected to be a true impact hitter, he should be able to provide more than enough value at the plate to remain in the lineup and give his defense a chance to shine. Offensively, expect a guy who can get on base at a solid rate, steal plenty of bases, and clear the fences occasionally. 24 year old Travis Demeritte, acquired from the Rangers back in 2016, has flashed high upside for a long time but has never quite put it together. In 2018, he slashed .222/.316/.416 with 17 home runs and a 140/57 strikeout to walk ratio at Mississippi, showing more of the same with big time power and trouble getting to it. Long considered a high-risk, high-reward player, he seems to be plateauing at AA and likely takes on more of a super-utility projection at this point, his solid glove giving him the opportunity to handle both the infield and the outfield. Demeritte could put it together in 2019, but that is looking less likely. I was a big fan of now-20 year old Drew Waters during the 2017 draft, where I saw him as a first round talent and the Braves scooped him up in the second round (41st overall) out of an Atlanta-area high school, and I'm still a big fan today. In 2018, his first full season out of high school, Waters slashed .293/.343/.476 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 105/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games between Class A Rome and Florida, the promotion to High A being something fairly uncommon for high school bats in their first full pro season. He's a wiry outfielder whose outfield defense is ahead of his offense at this point, as he is a great all-around defender with plenty of range and arm strength, kind of like Pache-lite. However, unlike Pache, I think Waters has tremendous upside at the plate as well, his powerful swing from both sides of the plate looking like one that could produce 20-30 home runs per season once he grows into his frame and learns to find the barrel more consistently. I'd like to see him get more patient at the plate and I think he will. 22 year old Greyson Jenista was a second round pick (49th overall) in 2018 out of Wichita State, and he slashed .265/.328/.395 with four home runs and a 41/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games between rookie level Danville, Rome, and Florida in his pro debut. He's 6'4" but has a swing that is more line-drive oriented than power oriented, and I think he will really benefit from time in the Braves system as his swing seems like one that easily add that power to me. Defensively, he's solid in right field with a strong arm and decent range, and scouts have spoken highly of his work ethic. I see him as a potential 20-30 homer bat, much like Riley and Waters, though the mechanical changes that would be required to reach that ceiling come with some risk. 21 year old William Contreras (the younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras) had a breakout year in 2018 and slashed .285/.347/.436 with eleven home runs and an 89/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games between Rome and Florida, putting together a full season for the first time in his career and showing improved power to boot. He's a very capable defender behind the plate, but unlike most catchers with playable defense, he can hit too, and that makes him very valuable. He still has a lot of work to do in proving that his bat can play in the higher levels of the minors and working to become even better behind the plate, but he's certainly one of the better catching prospects in the game. Lastly, 22 year old CJ Alexander was the Braves' 20th round pick in 2018 out of a Florida junior college, though on talent alone he should have been a top ten rounds pick. He's gotten off to a blazing start in pro ball (much like his younger brother, Blaze, in the Diamondbacks organization) by slashing .352/.429/.495 with two home runs and a 42/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games between complex ball, Danville, and Florida. At the State College of Florida, he was better known as a player with big time power who could get a bit too aggressive at the plate, but he flipped the script in pro ball by showing solid plate discipline and great feel for the barrel, finishing with just two home runs in 52 games (plus eight doubles and seven triples). Alexander's ability to consistently barrel the ball up in pro ball and even at High A (.325/.386/.450) bodes well for his chances to break through as one of the team's top hitting prospects. Defensively, his cannon arm makes him a solid third baseman despite his decent glove.
Affiliates: AAA Gwinnett Braves, AA Mississippi Braves, High A Florida Fire Frogs, Class A Rome Braves, rookie level Danville Braves, and complex level GCL and DSL Braves
MLB-Ready Pitchers: RHP Mike Soroka, RHP Kyle Wright, RHP Touki Toussaint, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Bryse Wilson, and LHP Luiz Gohara
This is the core of the Braves' farm system, and honestly, it is probably the most loaded individual section of any of these thirty farm system reviews that I'm writing. The Braves have so much young pitching ready to make the MLB roster that they will be able to include some serious top prospects in trade negotiations in 2019 and not break a sweat. 21 year old Mike Soroka would be the best prospect in this group if he were healthy, though unfortunately that is not the case. Soroka posted a 1.76 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 34/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings between Class A Rome and AAA Gwinnett, as well as a 3.51 ERA and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 major league innings, but he missed time with shoulder trouble and has again been feeling shoulder discomfort during spring training. He's a 6'5" Canadian righty, but rather than throw hard, he lives on his exceptional command and pitchability. Soroka sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and changeup, but he is so adept at mixing his pitches and hitting his spots that everything plays up and that he has earned a comparison or two to Greg Maddux. Even without high strikeout totals, Soroka has ace or #2 upside, and if healthy, he could be an impact starter and NL Rookie of the Year candidate in 2019. 23 year old Kyle Wright was the Braves' first round pick (fifth overall) in 2017 out of Vanderbilt, and he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 133/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 138 innings between AA Mississippi and Gwinnett, following that up with a 4.50 ERA and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio over six major league innings. Wright is a 6'4" righty with some of the best stuff in the system, throwing in the mid 90's and adding an exceptional array of secondaries, including two distinct breaking balls in a great curveball and a very good slider which can both miss bats and a changeup that has made a lot of progress. He's inconsistent with his command, though, and when it fails him, he can get hit hard. Throwing strikes and getting ahead in the count will be the key for him if he wants to reach his ace upside, but he still has a very high floor as a #3 or #4 starter who can compete in 2019. 22 year old Touki Toussaint came over from the Diamondbacks for Bronson Arroyo in 2015, and when the Braves traded for Dansby Swanson six months later, that put Arizona's first round picks from 2014 and 2015 both in the Atlanta system. Toussaint, the 16th overall pick of the 2014 draft out of a South Florida high school, rebounded from a rough 2017 (4.53 ERA, 167/64 K/BB) to post a huge season with a 2.38 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 163/53 strikeout to walk ratio in 136.1 innings between Mississippi and Gwinnett, then put up a 4.03 ERA and a 32/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 major league innings. He is a 6'3" righty with an electric arm, one that pumps fastballs consistently in the mid 90's and adds a swing and miss curveball, and his command has steadily improved throughout his pro career. 2018 must have been the tipping point because he finally broke out, and he could be a #2 or #3 starter in the major leagues if he can continue to improve that command. If not, his stuff is good enough to make him a solid back-end starter even without command, and he could also thrive as a fastball/curveball righty in the bullpen. 21 year old Kolby Allard, the Braves' first round pick (14th overall) in 2015 out of a Southern California high school, posted a 2.72 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an 89/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.1 innings at Gwinnett in 2018, then put up a 12.38 ERA and a 3/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight major league innings. He sits right around 90 with his fastball but adds a great curveball and changeup, and his solid command helps everything play up. Still, he has some tweener risk and might end up more of a #4 or #5 starter rather than a mid-rotation guy. Further improving his command could help him reach that #3 upside, but we'll have to see how his extended major league trial goes in 2019. 21 year old Bryse Wilson took just two years to make the majors after being drafted in the fourth round out of a North Carolina high school in 2016, though he is admittedly not quite as refined as Soroka, Wright, Allard, or even Toussaint. The 6'1" righty posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 143/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings between High A Florida, Mississippi, and Gwinnett, showing a low 90's fastball, a decent slider, and good enough command to make his stuff play up. He doesn't have the ceiling of some of the other arms on this list but he should be a very productive #3 or #4 starter in the near future who can eat plenty of innings. Lastly, 22 year old Luiz Gohara was widely considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball after the 2017 season (2.62 ERA, 147/44 K/BB), but his 2018 season was about as trying a season as any player could have. His father died during the offseason and his mother had significant heart surgery which forced him to leave the team briefly in May to visit her in Brazil, and he also dealt with an ankle injury and weight gain, reportedly reaching nearly 315 pounds. He's in better shape now (reportedly down to 270 pounds) but has reportedly dealt with shoulder soreness in spring training, but he will look to erase a 2018 where he posted a 4.81 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 59/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 innings at Mississippi and Gwinnett (plus a 5.95 ERA and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 19.2 major league innings). Gohara is a 6'3" lefty that has elicited comparisons to C.C. Sabathia due to his body type and velocity, sitting in the upper 90's while adding a nasty slider when in his pre-2018 form. He has been a bit more inconsistent with his command, but hopefully a smoother ride in 2019 will help him improve there and fulfill his potential as a mid-rotation starter, though the shoulder issues are troubling.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Ian Anderson, LHP Joey Wentz, LHP Kyle Muller, RHP Huascar Ynoa, LHP Thomas Burrows, and RHP Patrick Weigel
The Braves' aren't quite as deep in the middle of their system, but that is natural given the way they tend to develop pitching and they still have a great group of arms in the next wave. This group comes heavily from the 2016 draft and also features a lot of left handers (lefty Tucker Davidson just missed this section), which can back up the mostly right-handed current wave (see above). 20 year old Ian Anderson signed an under-slot deal as the third overall pick of the 2016 draft out of high school near Albany, New York, and he had a breakout 2018 by posting a 2.49 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 142/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings at High A Florida and AA Mississippi. Anderson has a mid 90's fastball and a solid curveball/changeup set, and with his command improving steadily as he has developed, and further development along his current track could make him a #2 starter. As it stands, Anderson has a very good shot to end up a mid-rotation starter with the possibility for more. 21 year old Joey Wentz was a competitive balance pick (40th overall) in the same 2016 draft as Anderson, coming out of a high school in the Kansas City area. Wentz posted a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 53/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings at Florida in 2018, missing time with injuries along the way. The 6'5" lefty has a low 90's fastball when healthy and solid secondary stuff, though his projectable frame hasn't yielded quite as much extra velocity as was hoped when he was drafted and his stuff flattened out at times in 2018. He'll have to get more consistent with, well, everything in 2018 if he doesn't want to get lost in the massive group of starting pitchers in the system, but he maintains high upside and he's certainly worth following in 2019, though he does run reliever risk at this point. 21 year old Kyle Muller, the Braves' second round pick (44th overall) out of a Dallas high school in that same 2016 draft, moved ahead of Wentz this year by posting a 3.03 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 129/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 139.2 innings at Class A Rome, Florida, and Mississippi. He's a big 6'6" lefty with a low 90's fastball and pretty good secondary stuff, though like Wentz, he has been inconsistent in pro ball. He seemed to right the ship a bit in 2018, and the Braves are hoping for even more of a breakout in 2019 if he can put everything together. Wentz and Muller both have a lot to prove in 2019, retaining high upside as tall lefties with powerful arms. 20 year old Huascar Ynoa, over from the Twins in the Jaime Garcia trade, posted a 4.56 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 131/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 116.1 innings between Rome and Florida in 2018, though he was much better at the lower level (3.63 ERA, 100/42 K/BB) than the upper level (8.03 ERA, 31/12 K/BB). Ynoa is a 6'3" righty with a mid 90's fastball that enabled him to succeed in Class A, though his lack of secondary stuff and control were exposed when he reached High A. He's a raw talent with plenty of upside and arm strength, though he might take a bit longer to reach the majors than the other names on this list and carries a lot more risk. On the bright side, he doesn't turn 21 until May. 24 year old Thomas Burrows was actually the Mariners' fourth round pick in the same 2016 draft as all the above players (minus Ynoa), having been taken eight picks after Bryse Wilson and coming over to Atlanta with Luiz Gohara in the Mallex Smith trade. Burrows, out of the University of Alabama, is strictly a reliever and posted a 2.66 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an 86/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings between Rome, Florida, and Mississippi in 2018, showing a major league ready fastball/slider combination. He throws from a low, almost sidearm release point, giving him added deception and making his stuff play up. The 6'1" lefty needs to work on his command, which will be the difference between him being a middle reliever or something more. Lastly, 24 year old Patrick Weigel became one of the Braves' top prospects after a huge 2016 season (2.47 ERA, 152/55 K/BB) but struggled when promoted to AAA in 2017 and hurt his elbow, missing the rest of that season and almost all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery (he did return to throw four shutout innings in complex ball). Weigel has a low to mid 90's fastball and a full array of secondary pitches, though none stand out as true swing-and-miss pitches and he'll have to rely on mixing his pitches to be an effective starter. The surgery caused him to fall behind the hoard of pitching prospects who made strides in 2018, but he has a shot at being a #4 or #5 starter in the near future.
Low Minors Pitchers: RHP Freddy Tarnok, RHP Alan Rangel, RHP Jasseel De La Cruz, RHP Tristan Beck, RHP Trey Riley
While the upper minors boast nothing but headliners and the mid minors carry guys like Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, and Joey Wentz, the low minors don't quite have a headliner, and that's partially due to the failure of the team to sign 2018 eighth overall pick Carter Stewart, a fireballing 6'6" righty with a power curve. This group consists of five pitchers with the potential to break out in 2019, led by 20 year old Freddy Tarnok. A third rounder (80th overall) in 2017 out of high school near Tampa, Tarnok posted a 3.96 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an 83/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at Class A Rome as the Braves worked to transition him from the bullpen to the rotation in 2018. The results weren't great (1.26 ERA, 49/24 K/BB as a reliever vs 6.26 ERA, 34/17 K/BB as a starter), but the 6'3" righty is extremely projectable and already easily sits in the low 90's. His secondary stuff, command, and general durability all need work, but he's also relatively new to pitching and the Braves think they can transform him into a mid-rotation starter. Behind him, 21 year olds Alan Rangel and Jasseel De La Cruz couldn't be more different as pitchers despite being teammates throughout 2018. Rangel posted a 4.09 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings at Rome, while De La Cruz had a 4.83 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 65/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings at the same level. Rangel is a pitchability righty who relies on his strong secondary stuff and his command to get by, while De La Cruz blows his low to mid 90's fastball by hitters with little in the way of secondaries or command. In that sense, De La Cruz is more of a similar pitcher to Tarnok, while Rangel has a little bit of Mike Soroka in him (although obviously not on the same level). Personally, I like Rangel just a bit more due to the success that Soroka had in this system, but De La Cruz definitely has the higher upside and could blow past Rangel with some mechanical adjustments. 22 year old Tristan Beck was a fourth round pick out of Stanford in 2018, tossing 4.2 shutout innings while striking out seven and walking two over 4.1 complex level innings afterwards. Beck figured to be a first round draft pick as a sophomore in 2017, but a back injury forced him out for the entire season and he came back with slightly diminished stuff in 2018, causing him to fall to the fourth round (though he still signed above-slot). Beck is a projectable 6'4" righty with a low 90's fastball, an inconsistent curveball that looked better in 2016 than it did in 2018, and a very good changeup, all of which he commands well. If he can stay healthy and the Braves can get him back to spinning that curveball effectively, he has high upside as a #2 or #3 starter due to his feel for pitching, but he also has a lot of questions to answer for someone who will be 23 in June. Lastly, 20 year old Trey Riley was a fifth round pick out of an Illinois junior college in 2018, then posted an 8.00 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and a 13/10 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings at rookie level Danville. The Braves envision Riley as a starter, though he has a ton of work to do if that is to happen. He currently sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a nasty slider, but he struggles to throw strikes, throws with effort, and lacks a changeup at this point. I feel that he is destined for the bullpen in this deep system, where he could sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and use that slider as a true swing and miss pitch regularly. Still, he'll have to answer the command question and learn to throw strikes.
The Hitters: 3B Austin Riley, OF Cristian Pache, UT Travis Demeritte, OF Drew Waters, OF Greyson Jenista, C William Contreras, and 3B CJ Alexander
While the Braves' position player depth isn't nearly as extensive as its pitching depth, they still have a solid group of guys that includes quite a few impact players. 21 year old Austin Riley, a former competitive balance pick (41st overall) out of a Memphis-area high school in 2015, is the best hitter, having slashed .294/.360/.522 with 19 home runs and a 129/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games between AA Mississippi, AAA Gwinnett, and complex level rehab. He has plenty of power and also added 30 doubles in 2018, and he could be a consistent 25-30 home run bat in the majors. His plate discipline seemingly could use some work, but he has continued to produce with every promotion and it may not end up hindering him in the majors. Josh Donaldson is the place holder at third base for now, but look for Riley to break in at some point during 2019 before taking over as the full-time starting third baseman in 2020, where he could be an All Star. While Riley has the superior bat, 20 year old Cristian Pache is inarguably the most exciting position-playing prospect in this system. In 2018, the Dominican outfielder slashed .279/.307/.410 with nine home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 97/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Florida and Mississippi, the nine home runs being a very pleasant surprise after he went homerless in 2016 and 2017. However, Pache is really known for his defense, as he might be the best defensive center fielder in the minors with his blazing speed, great range, and terrific arm. It's not often that you get players with that kind of defensive package, as great defenders typically pair a cannon arm with average range or a decent arm with terrific range. Offensively, Pache proved himself against High A pitching in 2018 (.285/.311/.431) and only turned 20 over the offseason, so while he's never expected to be a true impact hitter, he should be able to provide more than enough value at the plate to remain in the lineup and give his defense a chance to shine. Offensively, expect a guy who can get on base at a solid rate, steal plenty of bases, and clear the fences occasionally. 24 year old Travis Demeritte, acquired from the Rangers back in 2016, has flashed high upside for a long time but has never quite put it together. In 2018, he slashed .222/.316/.416 with 17 home runs and a 140/57 strikeout to walk ratio at Mississippi, showing more of the same with big time power and trouble getting to it. Long considered a high-risk, high-reward player, he seems to be plateauing at AA and likely takes on more of a super-utility projection at this point, his solid glove giving him the opportunity to handle both the infield and the outfield. Demeritte could put it together in 2019, but that is looking less likely. I was a big fan of now-20 year old Drew Waters during the 2017 draft, where I saw him as a first round talent and the Braves scooped him up in the second round (41st overall) out of an Atlanta-area high school, and I'm still a big fan today. In 2018, his first full season out of high school, Waters slashed .293/.343/.476 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 105/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games between Class A Rome and Florida, the promotion to High A being something fairly uncommon for high school bats in their first full pro season. He's a wiry outfielder whose outfield defense is ahead of his offense at this point, as he is a great all-around defender with plenty of range and arm strength, kind of like Pache-lite. However, unlike Pache, I think Waters has tremendous upside at the plate as well, his powerful swing from both sides of the plate looking like one that could produce 20-30 home runs per season once he grows into his frame and learns to find the barrel more consistently. I'd like to see him get more patient at the plate and I think he will. 22 year old Greyson Jenista was a second round pick (49th overall) in 2018 out of Wichita State, and he slashed .265/.328/.395 with four home runs and a 41/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games between rookie level Danville, Rome, and Florida in his pro debut. He's 6'4" but has a swing that is more line-drive oriented than power oriented, and I think he will really benefit from time in the Braves system as his swing seems like one that easily add that power to me. Defensively, he's solid in right field with a strong arm and decent range, and scouts have spoken highly of his work ethic. I see him as a potential 20-30 homer bat, much like Riley and Waters, though the mechanical changes that would be required to reach that ceiling come with some risk. 21 year old William Contreras (the younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras) had a breakout year in 2018 and slashed .285/.347/.436 with eleven home runs and an 89/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games between Rome and Florida, putting together a full season for the first time in his career and showing improved power to boot. He's a very capable defender behind the plate, but unlike most catchers with playable defense, he can hit too, and that makes him very valuable. He still has a lot of work to do in proving that his bat can play in the higher levels of the minors and working to become even better behind the plate, but he's certainly one of the better catching prospects in the game. Lastly, 22 year old CJ Alexander was the Braves' 20th round pick in 2018 out of a Florida junior college, though on talent alone he should have been a top ten rounds pick. He's gotten off to a blazing start in pro ball (much like his younger brother, Blaze, in the Diamondbacks organization) by slashing .352/.429/.495 with two home runs and a 42/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games between complex ball, Danville, and Florida. At the State College of Florida, he was better known as a player with big time power who could get a bit too aggressive at the plate, but he flipped the script in pro ball by showing solid plate discipline and great feel for the barrel, finishing with just two home runs in 52 games (plus eight doubles and seven triples). Alexander's ability to consistently barrel the ball up in pro ball and even at High A (.325/.386/.450) bodes well for his chances to break through as one of the team's top hitting prospects. Defensively, his cannon arm makes him a solid third baseman despite his decent glove.
Saturday, February 23, 2019
Reviewing the Chicago White Sox Farm System
Through trades and player development, the White Sox have built one of the top farm systems in baseball led by some star hitters as well as plenty of pitching depth. Because many of the system's top prospects came via trade, most of the best prospects are closer to the majors, and with the White Sox' window of contention looking to begin around 2020, that's just how they want it. It's really a nice balance they have going and they're not lacking in any demographic except perhaps infielders beyond Nick Madrigal.
Affiliates: AAA Charlotte Knights, AA Birmingham Barons, High A Winston-Salem Dash, Class A Kannapolis Intimidators, rookie level Great Falls Voyagers, and complex level AZL and DSL White Sox
The Headliner: OF Eloy Jimenez
Big systems like this often have multiple headliners, but 22 year old Eloy Jimenez is just so good that he warrants his own section even in this stacked system. Originally signed by the Cubs for $2.8 million in 2013 as arguably the top international prospect in the class, he was sent over to the White Sox (along with, among others, arguably the system's current top pitching prospect in Dylan Cease) for Jose Quintana in 2017, and he has gotten better every year in the minors. In 2018, he slashed .337/.384/.577 with 22 home runs and a 69/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, firmly establishing himself as one of the top prospects in the game. Jimenez's best tool is his light tower power from a 6'4" frame, but unlike most sluggers his age, he rarely lets the ball get by him and lines a ton of singles and doubles as well. This ability to consistently find the barrel will make his already tremendous power play up in the majors, giving him the chance to hit 30 or more home runs per season while posting good on-base percentages. At this point, he doesn't walk all that much, though the rest of his offensive profile more than makes up for that and he should be a middle of the order thumper in the very near future. Defensively, he's not going to be much help in left field, but that doesn't matter because of his bat. He'll likely begin the 2019 season in AAA "working on his defense" (so the White Sox can get another year of team control), but once he's up in the majors around late April, he should be a strong contender in a stacked AL Rookie of the Year race that should also include Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Danny Jansen, Houston's Kyle Tucker, Tampa Bay's Brent Honeywell, and Oakland's Jesus Luzardo, among many others.
High Minors Hitters: C Seby Zavala, C Zack Collins, OF Luis Alexander Basabe, OF Joel Booker, OF Danny Mendick, and 1B Gavin Sheets
The talent level among hitters in the upper minors drops off considerably after Eloy Jimenez, but there is still plenty of talent to go around and the White Sox should have significant reinforcements coming in the next couple of seasons. 25 year old Seby Zavala is an older prospect who just slashed .258/.317/.418 with 13 home runs and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, but he can stick behind the plate and that makes the bat play up. He's not the best defender, but he can handle the catcher's position adequately and has enough power and on-base ability to profile comfortably as a back-up catcher in the near future. Behind him, 24 year old Zack Collins is the team's top catching prospect, and he slashed .234/.382/.404 with 15 home runs and a 158/101 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games with Birmingham. The former Miami Hurricane and 2016 first round pick (tenth overall) has a very interesting profile both offensively and defensively. He has plenty of raw power but struggles to get to it in games due to high strikeout rates, but he also draws so many walks that his game-value might actually lie more in his on-base percentage than his slugging percentage despite hitting just 58 singles in 122 games in 2018 (that's what happens with 50 extra base hits, 101 walks, and 158 strikeouts). Defensively, he's not quite a natural behind the plate, but he reportedly has worked extremely hard to be where he is and the White Sox are confident he can handle the position at the highest level. Together, that makes for a wide range of possibilities even after a full season in AA, with his ceiling being that of a power hitting catcher who can pop 20-30 home runs per season with good on-base percentages and playable defense. However, he'll have to make more contact to make that a reality. 22 year old Luis Alexander Basabe, one of the less well-known players the White Sox received in the package for Chris Sale, slashed .258/.354/.445 with 15 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 140/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham. However, he broke his hand in spring training and will have to miss the beginning of the 2019 season. Basabe is an outfielder who is more well known for his glove than his bat, as he can stick in center field and play well there, taking pressure off his bat. He has some power and has shown the ability to draw walks and get on base, but at this point he strikes out too much to confidently project him as an every day player, and the broken hand won't help him in his quest to conquer that. As I said though, the glove does buy the bat some slack, so he still has a chance to earn a starting spot down the road with a few tweaks in his approach. 25 year olds Joel Booker and Danny Mendick will compete for bench spots in the near future, with Booker holding a fourth outfielder projection and Mendick looking to be a utility infielder. Booker slashed .279/.360/.399 with seven home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 119/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, performing better before the promotion (.297/.389/.469) but still holding his own afterwards (.266/.338/.348). His speed and contact ability will help him up the ladder, but ultimately the bat-glove combination is a little light to ever envision him starting. Mendick, meanwhile, slashed .247/.340/.395 with 14 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 90/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Birmingham. To me, he's the slightly better prospect with better plate discipline, a bit more power, and the ability to stick in the infield. He's not the rangiest shortstop but could probably handle a spot start or two at a time there, overall bringing a utility infield projection with an average bat and average glove. Lastly, 22 year old Gavin Sheets had an interesting first full pro season after being drafted in the second round (49th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017. In 2018, he slashed .293/.368/.407 with six home runs and an 81/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Winston-Salem (just down the street from where he played college ball), handling High A pitching well just a year after he was drafted. However, the 6'4", 230 pound slugger's power did not quite show up with wood bats like it did with metal bats in college (he blasted 21 home runs in 63 games in his junior season), and as a first baseman, that's raises questions. His bat is supposed to carry him if he wants to start in the major leagues, and while it's nice that he makes plenty of contact and controls the strike zone well, you want more out of a 6'4" first baseman. It will be interesting to see if he can add power in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Luis Robert, OF Blake Rutherford, OF Luis Gonzalez, OF Micker Adolfo, SS Nick Madrigal, OF Steele Walker, and 3B Jake Burger
Lower down, the White Sox are stacked with outfielders and should have no trouble building their outfields down the line. The best prospect is 21 year old Luis Robert, who signed for an incredible $26 million in 2017 out of Cuba but who has struggled to stay healthy. In 2018, Robert slashed .269/.333/.360 with no home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 52/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games between Class A Kannapolis, High A Winston-Salem, and complex level rehab, missing a lot of time with a thumb injury. Despite going homerless in 2018, Robert generates plenty of raw power from a smooth right handed swing and a 6'3" frame, and he did slash .324/.367/.432 with a pair of home runs and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the Arizona Fall League. Once he gets healthy, he should have no trouble getting to his power consistently, with the upside as a top or middle of the order hitter. Defensively, he plays a solid center field and would be equally valuable in right, and his plus speed helps him steal plenty of bases as well as provide that great defense. The biggest question marks for Robert just come with proving his immense talent on the diamond, as the injuries have kept him from getting consistent at bats. 21 year old Blake Rutherford was acquired from the Yankees in the big Todd Frazier/David Robertson trade of 2017, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.345/.436 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 90/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at Winston-Salem. At 6'3", Rutherford looks like a power hitter, but he has been more of a line drive hitter in pro ball and instead lines extra base hits around the field. That ability to make contact and find the barrel leaves the White Sox hoping he can translate that gap power into over the fence power, as he's just average in the outfield and will need his bat to carry him. He still carries high upside and could be a breakout candidate for 2019, during which he'll turn 22 and likely spend most of his time at AA, but for now he looks like a decent regular who could hold down a starting spot for a little bit or end up a strong fourth outfielder. 23 year old Luis Gonzalez, unrelated to former World Series hero Luis Gonzalez (his son Jacob is in the Giants' organization), was a third round pick (87th overall) out of New Mexico in 2017 and slashed .307/.368/.498 with 14 home runs and a 103/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, not losing any production after his promotion. He has a ton of gap power and plenty of feel for the barrel, which enabled him to rack up 59 extra base hits in 2018 (including 40 doubles) and leaves the White Sox confident he'll continue to hit as he moves up the ladder. He was extremely patient in college as well as in his pro debut in 2017, but he drew fewer walks in 2018 and that will be something to watch. He plays a very solid center field, and at this point he carries a similar projection to Rutherford as a potential regular who could be a very strong fourth outfielder, albeit with less uncertainty in the projection (higher floor, lower ceiling/less breakout potential). 22 year old Micker Adolfo followed up his breakout 2017 (.264/.331/.453) with another solid season in 2018, slashing .282/.369/.464 with eleven home runs and a 92/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, though Tommy John surgery ended his season in July. He has plenty of power at the plate but doesn't always get to it due to a high strikeout rate, though the White Sox hope that more consistent time on the field will help him on that front (like Robert, he has missed a lot of time to injuries). He's not all that fast but he has a cannon arm, making him a prototypical right fielder and one whose bat doesn't necessarily have to carry all of the weight. Adolfo could end up being a 20-25 homer bat down the line, but we'll have to see how he fares with more consistent health and playing time in the coming seasons. 21 year old Nick Madrigal may be listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, but his fantastic hit tool got him drafted fourth overall out of Oregon State as he and the Beavers went on to win the College World Series in 2018. He struck out just seven times in 42 games as a junior, then slashed .303/.353/.348 with eight stolen bases and a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games between complex ball, Kannapolis, and Winston-Salem for a total of 12 strikeouts in 85 games. He has some of the best bat to ball skills in all of minor league baseball, making it nearly impossible to get the ball by him and giving him plenty of opportunities to use his plus speed to get on base. Though he'll never be mistaken for a power hitter, Madrigal isn't completely punchless at the plate and could hit upwards of ten home runs per season in the majors to go along with plenty of doubles and triples, and he has true top of the order potential. Defensively, he's a natural at second base but could be able to stick as a shortstop if he can show enough arm strength, either way providing plenty of value on defense. Expect to see Madrigal up in the majors soon. The White Sox took 22 year old Steele Walker in the second round (46th overall) out of Oklahoma in the same 2018 draft, though he slashed just .209/.271/.342 with five home runs and a 37/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between complex ball, rookie level Great Falls, and Kannapolis in his pro debut. Walker has a natural feel for the barrel and in college was able to make the whole greater than the sum of his parts, using his gritty mindset and high baseball IQ in his favor. That didn't translate in those first 44 games, so we'll have to see how he comes out in 2019 after plenty more pro coaching. Overall, it looks like a fourth outfield projection as he's nothing special on defense, but because of his reportedly strong work ethic, I wouldn't bet against him. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Burger missed the 2018 season with an achilles injury but is a good prospect to watch after having been drafted in the first round (eleventh overall) out of Missouri State in 2017, especially considering the White Sox' lack of infield depth. He's a power hitter with solid feel for the barrel as well, making him a good candidate to hit at the major league level. He's only so-so at third base but works hard on his defense and has a shot to stick there (though the achilles injury doesn't help), and a good season in 2019 could put him back on the radar as a potential middle of the order hitter.
Starting Pitchers: RHP Michael Kopech, RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Dane Dunning, LHP Kodi Medeiros, LHP Bernardo Flores, RHP A.J. Puckett, and RHP Jonathan Stiever
The White Sox have a lot of pitching depth, and because so many of their top pitching prospects are actually relievers, I'm splitting them along that line. Interestingly, most of their best starting pitching prospects actually came via trade, and they have done very well in that regard. We all know 22 year old Michael Kopech, the 6'3" right hander who posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 170/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.1 innings at AAA Charlotte before posting a 5.02 ERA and a 15/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings in the majors. Acquired from Boston in the Chris Sale trade, Kopech unfortunately blew out his elbow in September and had to undergo Tommy John surgery, likely knocking him out for all of 2019. When healthy, the East Texan is most well known for his upper 90's, moving fastball that he can simply blow by even the best hitters. He also adds a great slider that misses a ton of bats, making him one of the toughest pitchers to face in minor league baseball. On the flip side, though, he struggles with his command and gets hit when he falls behind in the count or leaves his fastball over the plate, because as we all know, pro hitters can hit 100 MPH fastballs if they're middle-middle. The Tommy John surgery is obviously a huge setback that will make it all the more difficult for him to improve that command, but if he can, he has #2 starter or even possibly ace upside. We'll just have to wait until 2020. 23 year old Dylan Cease, over from the Cubs with Eloy Jimenez in the Jose Quintana trade, had a fantastic season in 2018 by going 12-2 with a 2.40 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 160/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings between High A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham. The 6'2" righty is actually a fairly similar prospect to Kopech, just not as extreme. He comfortably sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds an excellent curveball that, like Kopech's slider, misses a ton of bats. Also like Kopech, Cease struggles with command, though he is steadily coming along in that regard and the White Sox hope he can be average by the time he reaches the majors. Cease has #2 starter upside with a good shot at being at least a #3, and if all goes according to plan, he should make for a very good one-two punch with Kopech in the 2020's. 24 year old Dane Dunning, who came over from the Nationals in the Adam Eaton trade, posted a 2.71 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 100/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, proving to be a different kind of prospect than Kopech and Cease. He's a 6'4" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and changeup, though he commands everything much better than those guys. His stuff also plays up due to the deception in his funky delivery, though on the flip side he did miss time with elbow issues in 2018. If he can stay healthy, he has mid rotation upside, and the fact that he tossed 144 innings in 2017 does ease the durability questions. 22 year old Kodi Medeiros was acquired from the Brewers for Joakim Soria this past July, and he posted a 3.60 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 141/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings in AA. The former first round pick (12th overall out of a Hawaii high school in 2014) sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great slider, though his control comes and goes because his cross-fire delivery is difficult to keep in sync. When he has everything going, though, that deception makes his pitches play up and helps him miss plenty of bats, and he has continued to work hard to get more consistent. The 6'2" lefty looks like a future #3 or #4 starter if everything breaks right, though the pitching depth in this system could end up forcing him to the bullpen, where I get the feeling he could be very, very good. 23 year old Bernardo Flores is an under the radar arm who posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 156 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham this year, and unlike the four names above him on this list, he was actually drafted by the White Sox (seventh round in 2016 out of Southern California). He typically sits in the low 90's with his fastball (though he has been as high as 97 in the past) with so-so breaking balls, adding a solid changeup and using his command to make everything play up. As a lefty without great stuff, he profiles as a #4 or #5 starter but could sneak up on some people because of his durability and feel for pitching. 23 year old A.J. Puckett came over from the Royals for Melky Cabrera in July and posted a 3.98 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 119/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings between the two High A affiliates. He throws in the low 90's and like Flores, adds a solid changeup despite a mediocre breaking ball, though his command is just a bit behind Flores' and he looks like a #5 starter or solid long reliever right now. Lastly, 21 year old Jonathan Stiever was a fifth round pick out of Indiana in 2018, then posted a 4.18 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 39/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings at rookie level Great Falls. Stiever is a 6'2" righty with a solid breaking ball and overall fairly advanced command, which is typical for those day two power-five college arms. He finished the season on a run of ten straight shutout innings (including the Pioneer League playoffs) and is a solid mid to back of the rotation arm to follow down lower in the minors.
Relievers: RHP Ian Hamilton, RHP Zack Burdi, RHP Jose Ruiz, RHP Alec Hansen, RHP Tyler Johnson, and RHP Lincoln Henzman
For all the talk about the White Sox' headlining prospects like Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, and Dylan Cease, the White Sox are actually really deep in relievers and should have a very solid homegrown bullpen in the future. 23 year old Ian Hamilton had a breakout year in 2018 and posted a 1.74 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 62/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.2 innings at AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, then put up a 4.50 ERA and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio in eight major league innings. He's a fastball-slider righty who sits in the mid 90's and misses his fair share of bats, though the slider isn't so devastating that he'll be putting up ridiculous strikeout numbers in the majors or anything. He profiles best as a solid seventh or eighth inning guy and has a good shot at the Opening Day roster. 23 year old Zack Burdi, a product of the same 2016 draft (26th overall out of Louisville), has the higher ceiling as a prospect but missed almost all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, returning in August to post a 2.84 ERA and a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 6.1 innings in complex ball rehab. He sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a hard slider and a good changeup, giving him multiple weapons to help that velocity play up even further. Had he not gotten hurt, he may have been a September call-up in 2017, and assuming he comes out firing and healthy in spring training, he also has a shot at the Opening Day roster. A healthy Burdi will likely be an impact reliever for the White Sox, perhaps even a closer. 24 year old Jose Ruiz is yet another fastball/slider righty, checking in with a 3.07 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 77/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham followed by a 4.15 ERA and a 6/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 4.1 major league innings. Sitting in the mid 90's and adding a good slider, he's not quite the prospect that Hamilton and Burdi are, but he should contribute as a solid middle reliever in the near future. 24 year old Alec Hansen has had an absolute roller coaster of a career, looking like he had a shot at being the first overall pick in the 2016 draft before a poor junior season at Oklahoma dropped him to the second round, where the White Sox picked him up with the 49th overall pick. He then dominated the minors in 2016 (1.32 ERA, 81/20 K/BB) and 2017 (2.80 ERA, 191/51 K/BB), establishing himself as a potential impact starter, but it all fell apart again in 2018 after he missed time with forearm soreness and posted a 6.31 ERA, a 2.01 WHIP, and a 55/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham upon returning. Hansen has fantastic stuff with a mid 90's fastball, a couple of solid breaking balls, and a useable changeup from a 6'7" frame, but his command ranges anywhere from average on his best days to downright un-playable on his worst. Over a three start stretch from July 18th to July 29th, he walked 22 batters in 10.1 innings and was subsequently demoted from AA to High A, where he wasn't much better. Now 24, Hansen is at a bit of a crossroads and may have to be bumped from the rotation to the bullpen, where he could likely sit in the upper 90's and strike out hitters en masse if he can maintain any semblance of command. 23 year old Tyler Johnson, like Ian Hamilton, had a breakout season in 2018 and posted a 1.40 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an 89/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 innings at Class A Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, using his mid 90's fastball and good slider to miss plenty of bats against A ball hitters. Because he was facing mostly younger competition in 2018, we'll have to see how he fares in the upper minors in 2019, but he could be another seventh or eighth inning arm in the Chicago bullpen in the near future. Lastly, 23 year old Lincoln Henzman is a starter for now, having posted a 2.35 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 80/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 107.1 innings at Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, like Johnson performing very well against mostly younger competition. Giving the starting pitching depth in this system and Henzman's lack of a reliable breaking ball, he may be forced to the bullpen down the road, currently working with a ground ball-inducing low to mid 90's fastball, a solid changeup, and a decent cutter, all of which he controls pretty well. How he fares against AA hitters and whether he proves he can handle a starter's workload in 2019 will likely determine whether he ends up a back-end starter or a solid middle reliever in the long run.
Affiliates: AAA Charlotte Knights, AA Birmingham Barons, High A Winston-Salem Dash, Class A Kannapolis Intimidators, rookie level Great Falls Voyagers, and complex level AZL and DSL White Sox
The Headliner: OF Eloy Jimenez
Big systems like this often have multiple headliners, but 22 year old Eloy Jimenez is just so good that he warrants his own section even in this stacked system. Originally signed by the Cubs for $2.8 million in 2013 as arguably the top international prospect in the class, he was sent over to the White Sox (along with, among others, arguably the system's current top pitching prospect in Dylan Cease) for Jose Quintana in 2017, and he has gotten better every year in the minors. In 2018, he slashed .337/.384/.577 with 22 home runs and a 69/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, firmly establishing himself as one of the top prospects in the game. Jimenez's best tool is his light tower power from a 6'4" frame, but unlike most sluggers his age, he rarely lets the ball get by him and lines a ton of singles and doubles as well. This ability to consistently find the barrel will make his already tremendous power play up in the majors, giving him the chance to hit 30 or more home runs per season while posting good on-base percentages. At this point, he doesn't walk all that much, though the rest of his offensive profile more than makes up for that and he should be a middle of the order thumper in the very near future. Defensively, he's not going to be much help in left field, but that doesn't matter because of his bat. He'll likely begin the 2019 season in AAA "working on his defense" (so the White Sox can get another year of team control), but once he's up in the majors around late April, he should be a strong contender in a stacked AL Rookie of the Year race that should also include Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Danny Jansen, Houston's Kyle Tucker, Tampa Bay's Brent Honeywell, and Oakland's Jesus Luzardo, among many others.
High Minors Hitters: C Seby Zavala, C Zack Collins, OF Luis Alexander Basabe, OF Joel Booker, OF Danny Mendick, and 1B Gavin Sheets
The talent level among hitters in the upper minors drops off considerably after Eloy Jimenez, but there is still plenty of talent to go around and the White Sox should have significant reinforcements coming in the next couple of seasons. 25 year old Seby Zavala is an older prospect who just slashed .258/.317/.418 with 13 home runs and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, but he can stick behind the plate and that makes the bat play up. He's not the best defender, but he can handle the catcher's position adequately and has enough power and on-base ability to profile comfortably as a back-up catcher in the near future. Behind him, 24 year old Zack Collins is the team's top catching prospect, and he slashed .234/.382/.404 with 15 home runs and a 158/101 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games with Birmingham. The former Miami Hurricane and 2016 first round pick (tenth overall) has a very interesting profile both offensively and defensively. He has plenty of raw power but struggles to get to it in games due to high strikeout rates, but he also draws so many walks that his game-value might actually lie more in his on-base percentage than his slugging percentage despite hitting just 58 singles in 122 games in 2018 (that's what happens with 50 extra base hits, 101 walks, and 158 strikeouts). Defensively, he's not quite a natural behind the plate, but he reportedly has worked extremely hard to be where he is and the White Sox are confident he can handle the position at the highest level. Together, that makes for a wide range of possibilities even after a full season in AA, with his ceiling being that of a power hitting catcher who can pop 20-30 home runs per season with good on-base percentages and playable defense. However, he'll have to make more contact to make that a reality. 22 year old Luis Alexander Basabe, one of the less well-known players the White Sox received in the package for Chris Sale, slashed .258/.354/.445 with 15 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 140/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham. However, he broke his hand in spring training and will have to miss the beginning of the 2019 season. Basabe is an outfielder who is more well known for his glove than his bat, as he can stick in center field and play well there, taking pressure off his bat. He has some power and has shown the ability to draw walks and get on base, but at this point he strikes out too much to confidently project him as an every day player, and the broken hand won't help him in his quest to conquer that. As I said though, the glove does buy the bat some slack, so he still has a chance to earn a starting spot down the road with a few tweaks in his approach. 25 year olds Joel Booker and Danny Mendick will compete for bench spots in the near future, with Booker holding a fourth outfielder projection and Mendick looking to be a utility infielder. Booker slashed .279/.360/.399 with seven home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 119/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, performing better before the promotion (.297/.389/.469) but still holding his own afterwards (.266/.338/.348). His speed and contact ability will help him up the ladder, but ultimately the bat-glove combination is a little light to ever envision him starting. Mendick, meanwhile, slashed .247/.340/.395 with 14 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 90/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Birmingham. To me, he's the slightly better prospect with better plate discipline, a bit more power, and the ability to stick in the infield. He's not the rangiest shortstop but could probably handle a spot start or two at a time there, overall bringing a utility infield projection with an average bat and average glove. Lastly, 22 year old Gavin Sheets had an interesting first full pro season after being drafted in the second round (49th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017. In 2018, he slashed .293/.368/.407 with six home runs and an 81/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Winston-Salem (just down the street from where he played college ball), handling High A pitching well just a year after he was drafted. However, the 6'4", 230 pound slugger's power did not quite show up with wood bats like it did with metal bats in college (he blasted 21 home runs in 63 games in his junior season), and as a first baseman, that's raises questions. His bat is supposed to carry him if he wants to start in the major leagues, and while it's nice that he makes plenty of contact and controls the strike zone well, you want more out of a 6'4" first baseman. It will be interesting to see if he can add power in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Luis Robert, OF Blake Rutherford, OF Luis Gonzalez, OF Micker Adolfo, SS Nick Madrigal, OF Steele Walker, and 3B Jake Burger
Lower down, the White Sox are stacked with outfielders and should have no trouble building their outfields down the line. The best prospect is 21 year old Luis Robert, who signed for an incredible $26 million in 2017 out of Cuba but who has struggled to stay healthy. In 2018, Robert slashed .269/.333/.360 with no home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 52/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games between Class A Kannapolis, High A Winston-Salem, and complex level rehab, missing a lot of time with a thumb injury. Despite going homerless in 2018, Robert generates plenty of raw power from a smooth right handed swing and a 6'3" frame, and he did slash .324/.367/.432 with a pair of home runs and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the Arizona Fall League. Once he gets healthy, he should have no trouble getting to his power consistently, with the upside as a top or middle of the order hitter. Defensively, he plays a solid center field and would be equally valuable in right, and his plus speed helps him steal plenty of bases as well as provide that great defense. The biggest question marks for Robert just come with proving his immense talent on the diamond, as the injuries have kept him from getting consistent at bats. 21 year old Blake Rutherford was acquired from the Yankees in the big Todd Frazier/David Robertson trade of 2017, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.345/.436 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 90/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at Winston-Salem. At 6'3", Rutherford looks like a power hitter, but he has been more of a line drive hitter in pro ball and instead lines extra base hits around the field. That ability to make contact and find the barrel leaves the White Sox hoping he can translate that gap power into over the fence power, as he's just average in the outfield and will need his bat to carry him. He still carries high upside and could be a breakout candidate for 2019, during which he'll turn 22 and likely spend most of his time at AA, but for now he looks like a decent regular who could hold down a starting spot for a little bit or end up a strong fourth outfielder. 23 year old Luis Gonzalez, unrelated to former World Series hero Luis Gonzalez (his son Jacob is in the Giants' organization), was a third round pick (87th overall) out of New Mexico in 2017 and slashed .307/.368/.498 with 14 home runs and a 103/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, not losing any production after his promotion. He has a ton of gap power and plenty of feel for the barrel, which enabled him to rack up 59 extra base hits in 2018 (including 40 doubles) and leaves the White Sox confident he'll continue to hit as he moves up the ladder. He was extremely patient in college as well as in his pro debut in 2017, but he drew fewer walks in 2018 and that will be something to watch. He plays a very solid center field, and at this point he carries a similar projection to Rutherford as a potential regular who could be a very strong fourth outfielder, albeit with less uncertainty in the projection (higher floor, lower ceiling/less breakout potential). 22 year old Micker Adolfo followed up his breakout 2017 (.264/.331/.453) with another solid season in 2018, slashing .282/.369/.464 with eleven home runs and a 92/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, though Tommy John surgery ended his season in July. He has plenty of power at the plate but doesn't always get to it due to a high strikeout rate, though the White Sox hope that more consistent time on the field will help him on that front (like Robert, he has missed a lot of time to injuries). He's not all that fast but he has a cannon arm, making him a prototypical right fielder and one whose bat doesn't necessarily have to carry all of the weight. Adolfo could end up being a 20-25 homer bat down the line, but we'll have to see how he fares with more consistent health and playing time in the coming seasons. 21 year old Nick Madrigal may be listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, but his fantastic hit tool got him drafted fourth overall out of Oregon State as he and the Beavers went on to win the College World Series in 2018. He struck out just seven times in 42 games as a junior, then slashed .303/.353/.348 with eight stolen bases and a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games between complex ball, Kannapolis, and Winston-Salem for a total of 12 strikeouts in 85 games. He has some of the best bat to ball skills in all of minor league baseball, making it nearly impossible to get the ball by him and giving him plenty of opportunities to use his plus speed to get on base. Though he'll never be mistaken for a power hitter, Madrigal isn't completely punchless at the plate and could hit upwards of ten home runs per season in the majors to go along with plenty of doubles and triples, and he has true top of the order potential. Defensively, he's a natural at second base but could be able to stick as a shortstop if he can show enough arm strength, either way providing plenty of value on defense. Expect to see Madrigal up in the majors soon. The White Sox took 22 year old Steele Walker in the second round (46th overall) out of Oklahoma in the same 2018 draft, though he slashed just .209/.271/.342 with five home runs and a 37/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between complex ball, rookie level Great Falls, and Kannapolis in his pro debut. Walker has a natural feel for the barrel and in college was able to make the whole greater than the sum of his parts, using his gritty mindset and high baseball IQ in his favor. That didn't translate in those first 44 games, so we'll have to see how he comes out in 2019 after plenty more pro coaching. Overall, it looks like a fourth outfield projection as he's nothing special on defense, but because of his reportedly strong work ethic, I wouldn't bet against him. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Burger missed the 2018 season with an achilles injury but is a good prospect to watch after having been drafted in the first round (eleventh overall) out of Missouri State in 2017, especially considering the White Sox' lack of infield depth. He's a power hitter with solid feel for the barrel as well, making him a good candidate to hit at the major league level. He's only so-so at third base but works hard on his defense and has a shot to stick there (though the achilles injury doesn't help), and a good season in 2019 could put him back on the radar as a potential middle of the order hitter.
Starting Pitchers: RHP Michael Kopech, RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Dane Dunning, LHP Kodi Medeiros, LHP Bernardo Flores, RHP A.J. Puckett, and RHP Jonathan Stiever
The White Sox have a lot of pitching depth, and because so many of their top pitching prospects are actually relievers, I'm splitting them along that line. Interestingly, most of their best starting pitching prospects actually came via trade, and they have done very well in that regard. We all know 22 year old Michael Kopech, the 6'3" right hander who posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 170/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.1 innings at AAA Charlotte before posting a 5.02 ERA and a 15/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings in the majors. Acquired from Boston in the Chris Sale trade, Kopech unfortunately blew out his elbow in September and had to undergo Tommy John surgery, likely knocking him out for all of 2019. When healthy, the East Texan is most well known for his upper 90's, moving fastball that he can simply blow by even the best hitters. He also adds a great slider that misses a ton of bats, making him one of the toughest pitchers to face in minor league baseball. On the flip side, though, he struggles with his command and gets hit when he falls behind in the count or leaves his fastball over the plate, because as we all know, pro hitters can hit 100 MPH fastballs if they're middle-middle. The Tommy John surgery is obviously a huge setback that will make it all the more difficult for him to improve that command, but if he can, he has #2 starter or even possibly ace upside. We'll just have to wait until 2020. 23 year old Dylan Cease, over from the Cubs with Eloy Jimenez in the Jose Quintana trade, had a fantastic season in 2018 by going 12-2 with a 2.40 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 160/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings between High A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham. The 6'2" righty is actually a fairly similar prospect to Kopech, just not as extreme. He comfortably sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds an excellent curveball that, like Kopech's slider, misses a ton of bats. Also like Kopech, Cease struggles with command, though he is steadily coming along in that regard and the White Sox hope he can be average by the time he reaches the majors. Cease has #2 starter upside with a good shot at being at least a #3, and if all goes according to plan, he should make for a very good one-two punch with Kopech in the 2020's. 24 year old Dane Dunning, who came over from the Nationals in the Adam Eaton trade, posted a 2.71 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 100/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, proving to be a different kind of prospect than Kopech and Cease. He's a 6'4" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and changeup, though he commands everything much better than those guys. His stuff also plays up due to the deception in his funky delivery, though on the flip side he did miss time with elbow issues in 2018. If he can stay healthy, he has mid rotation upside, and the fact that he tossed 144 innings in 2017 does ease the durability questions. 22 year old Kodi Medeiros was acquired from the Brewers for Joakim Soria this past July, and he posted a 3.60 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 141/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings in AA. The former first round pick (12th overall out of a Hawaii high school in 2014) sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great slider, though his control comes and goes because his cross-fire delivery is difficult to keep in sync. When he has everything going, though, that deception makes his pitches play up and helps him miss plenty of bats, and he has continued to work hard to get more consistent. The 6'2" lefty looks like a future #3 or #4 starter if everything breaks right, though the pitching depth in this system could end up forcing him to the bullpen, where I get the feeling he could be very, very good. 23 year old Bernardo Flores is an under the radar arm who posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 156 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham this year, and unlike the four names above him on this list, he was actually drafted by the White Sox (seventh round in 2016 out of Southern California). He typically sits in the low 90's with his fastball (though he has been as high as 97 in the past) with so-so breaking balls, adding a solid changeup and using his command to make everything play up. As a lefty without great stuff, he profiles as a #4 or #5 starter but could sneak up on some people because of his durability and feel for pitching. 23 year old A.J. Puckett came over from the Royals for Melky Cabrera in July and posted a 3.98 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 119/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings between the two High A affiliates. He throws in the low 90's and like Flores, adds a solid changeup despite a mediocre breaking ball, though his command is just a bit behind Flores' and he looks like a #5 starter or solid long reliever right now. Lastly, 21 year old Jonathan Stiever was a fifth round pick out of Indiana in 2018, then posted a 4.18 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 39/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings at rookie level Great Falls. Stiever is a 6'2" righty with a solid breaking ball and overall fairly advanced command, which is typical for those day two power-five college arms. He finished the season on a run of ten straight shutout innings (including the Pioneer League playoffs) and is a solid mid to back of the rotation arm to follow down lower in the minors.
Relievers: RHP Ian Hamilton, RHP Zack Burdi, RHP Jose Ruiz, RHP Alec Hansen, RHP Tyler Johnson, and RHP Lincoln Henzman
For all the talk about the White Sox' headlining prospects like Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, and Dylan Cease, the White Sox are actually really deep in relievers and should have a very solid homegrown bullpen in the future. 23 year old Ian Hamilton had a breakout year in 2018 and posted a 1.74 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 62/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.2 innings at AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, then put up a 4.50 ERA and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio in eight major league innings. He's a fastball-slider righty who sits in the mid 90's and misses his fair share of bats, though the slider isn't so devastating that he'll be putting up ridiculous strikeout numbers in the majors or anything. He profiles best as a solid seventh or eighth inning guy and has a good shot at the Opening Day roster. 23 year old Zack Burdi, a product of the same 2016 draft (26th overall out of Louisville), has the higher ceiling as a prospect but missed almost all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, returning in August to post a 2.84 ERA and a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 6.1 innings in complex ball rehab. He sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a hard slider and a good changeup, giving him multiple weapons to help that velocity play up even further. Had he not gotten hurt, he may have been a September call-up in 2017, and assuming he comes out firing and healthy in spring training, he also has a shot at the Opening Day roster. A healthy Burdi will likely be an impact reliever for the White Sox, perhaps even a closer. 24 year old Jose Ruiz is yet another fastball/slider righty, checking in with a 3.07 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 77/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham followed by a 4.15 ERA and a 6/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 4.1 major league innings. Sitting in the mid 90's and adding a good slider, he's not quite the prospect that Hamilton and Burdi are, but he should contribute as a solid middle reliever in the near future. 24 year old Alec Hansen has had an absolute roller coaster of a career, looking like he had a shot at being the first overall pick in the 2016 draft before a poor junior season at Oklahoma dropped him to the second round, where the White Sox picked him up with the 49th overall pick. He then dominated the minors in 2016 (1.32 ERA, 81/20 K/BB) and 2017 (2.80 ERA, 191/51 K/BB), establishing himself as a potential impact starter, but it all fell apart again in 2018 after he missed time with forearm soreness and posted a 6.31 ERA, a 2.01 WHIP, and a 55/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham upon returning. Hansen has fantastic stuff with a mid 90's fastball, a couple of solid breaking balls, and a useable changeup from a 6'7" frame, but his command ranges anywhere from average on his best days to downright un-playable on his worst. Over a three start stretch from July 18th to July 29th, he walked 22 batters in 10.1 innings and was subsequently demoted from AA to High A, where he wasn't much better. Now 24, Hansen is at a bit of a crossroads and may have to be bumped from the rotation to the bullpen, where he could likely sit in the upper 90's and strike out hitters en masse if he can maintain any semblance of command. 23 year old Tyler Johnson, like Ian Hamilton, had a breakout season in 2018 and posted a 1.40 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an 89/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 innings at Class A Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, using his mid 90's fastball and good slider to miss plenty of bats against A ball hitters. Because he was facing mostly younger competition in 2018, we'll have to see how he fares in the upper minors in 2019, but he could be another seventh or eighth inning arm in the Chicago bullpen in the near future. Lastly, 23 year old Lincoln Henzman is a starter for now, having posted a 2.35 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 80/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 107.1 innings at Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, like Johnson performing very well against mostly younger competition. Giving the starting pitching depth in this system and Henzman's lack of a reliable breaking ball, he may be forced to the bullpen down the road, currently working with a ground ball-inducing low to mid 90's fastball, a solid changeup, and a decent cutter, all of which he controls pretty well. How he fares against AA hitters and whether he proves he can handle a starter's workload in 2019 will likely determine whether he ends up a back-end starter or a solid middle reliever in the long run.
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Reviewing the Tampa Bay Rays Farm System
The Rays usually have a deep farm system, often led by a deep group of projectable arms with a few solid hitters thrown in here and there. However, while the Rays still maintain a solid core of pitchers, the story this year is the position player group, with tons of potential impact bats from all over the diamond. With the lost season from Brent Honeywell came breakouts from guys like Wander Franco and Vidal Brujan, and because many of the system's star prospects are lower in the minors, this could be an even better system come next year. The Rays have something really exciting brewing down on the farm.
Affiliates: AAA Durham Bulls, AA Montgomery Biscuits, High A Charlotte Stone Crabs, Class A Bowling Green Hot Rods, Short Season Hudson Valley Renegades, rookie level Princeton Rays, complex level GCL and DSL Rays
High Minors Bats: 2B Brandon Lowe, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, OF Jesus Sanchez, 2B Nick Solak, and SS Lucius Fox
We'll start by getting the more advanced hitters out of the way, even though most of the excitement lies lower in the system. 24 year old Brandon Lowe, the first of Tampa Bay's three star Lowes to make the majors, slashed .297/.391/.558 with 22 home runs and a 102/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham in 2018 before putting up a .233/.324/.450 line with six home runs in his 43 game major league debut. Because he finished with 129 at bats, he just barely retains prospect status for 2019, but he has a very good shot at grabbing playing time quickly in Tampa. He's naturally a second baseman but has also seen time in the outifeld, giving him some positional flexibility that makes his bat more valuable. He's not quite an impact hitter, but Lowe can post solid on-base percentages while hitting 15-20 home runs per season, meaning he should fit right into the Rays' long term plans and be a steady bat and glove in their lineup for at least the next few seasons. 23 year old Nathaniel Lowe, not related to Brandon despite also having been born in Virginia's Hampton Roads area (Brandon grew up in Suffolk, Nathaniel moved to the Atlanta area), had a huge breakout in 2018 by slashing .330/.416/.568 with 27 home runs and a 90/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A Charlotte, Montgomery, and Durham in 2018. In just one season, Lowe went from average hitting first baseman who was more or less organizational depth to a legitimate impact bat who slashed .356/.432/.588 in High A, .340/.444/.606 in AA, and .260/.327/.460 in AAA. He still doesn't provide much value on defense, but he has shown above average power as well as the ability to get to it consistently in the high minors, and he could crack the Rays starting lineup at some point early in 2019. Long term, he's likely a platoon bat just because the offensive bar is so high for first basemen, but expect him to get some big hits in the near future as a guy who, at best, could hit 20-25 home runs per season with pretty decent on-base percentages. 21 year old Jesus Sanchez wasn't as highly regarded as some of the others stars in 2014 international free agent class, but he has done nothing but hit since signing and slashed .282/.324/.433 with eleven home runs and a 92/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Charlotte and Montgomery in 2018. Sanchez has no standout tool but does everything well, showing some power, the ability to find the barrel and get on base, and good outfield defense, all against mostly older competition. He still needs a little more time for his bat to acclimate to the upper minors, but Sanchez has the ability to be a net-positive on both sides of the ball, and if he can improve his plate discipline just a little bit, he could be an impact hitter with 15-20 home run power and solid on-base percentages in the long run. 24 year old Nick Solak, who came over from the Yankees in last offseason's big three-team trade that included Steven Souza and Brandon Drury, slashed .282/.384/.450 with 19 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 112/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Montgomery in his first season in the Rays' system. The Louisville product is definitely more well known for his bat, as he makes consistent hard contact and draws plenty of walks, which together have helped him turn in a gaudy .296/.390/.445 line with 34 home runs in three minor league seasons. His ability to find the barrel helps his power play up, and what was once a utility projection now has some room for a future in the starting lineup. He's mediocre at second base but the Rays reportedly love his makeup and work ethic, which has likely kept him from being forced into the outfield. I'm not sure Solak cuts it as a long term second baseman, but he keeps improving with the bat and could have a similar offensive profile to Sanchez when all is said and done, if with a little less power and a few more walks. Lastly, 21 year old Lucius Fox has the best name in the Rays' system, and he slashed .268/.351/.341 with three home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 99/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games between Charlotte and Montgomery. Arguably the top prospect in the 2015 international free agent class when he signed, the Bahamian's bat has been fairly slow to develop but he shows plenty of speed and draws enough walks to keep himself in top prospect discussions. Defensively, he plays a solid if unspectacular shortstop, which buys his bat time, and he could start there down the road if he can show a little more thump in his bat. If not, he profiles as a speedy utility infielder, and 2019 should be telling as to where his future lies.
Low and Mid Minors Bats: 2B Vidal Brujan, C Ronaldo Hernandez, SS Taylor Walls, SS Wander Franco, 2B Tyler Frank, and OF Nick Schnell
While many of the upper-minors bats are fringe-starters aside from Jesus Sanchez, there is some real excitement down a few rungs on the farm, with a few hitters having legitimate star potential. 21 year old Vidal Brujan is one of the top prospects in the entire system, his huge breakout season consisting of a .320/.403/.459 slash line, nine home runs, 55 stolen bases, and a 68/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte, and he actually hit better after the promotion (.347/.434/.582 in 27 games) than before (.313/.395/.427 in 95 games). Despite standing just 5'9", Brujan's huge season as a 20 year old in A ball showed a great feel for the barrel, excellent plate discipline, and top-flight speed that could make him an impact leadoff man at the major league level. He's pretty good at second base but isn't the most consistent, and he could make a great center fielder if the Rays choose to go that route. Either way, look for Brujan as the Rays' leadoff man of the future beginning sometime around 2020. 21 year old Ronaldo Hernandez emerged as the system's clear top catching prospect by slashing .284/.339/.494 with 21 home runs and a 69/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Bowling Green, his raw power taking a step forward. Unlike most young catchers, Hernandez can both field and hit well, showing power, on-base ability, the ability to keep strikeouts down, and all around good defense behind the plate. He has not played above Class A, which unfortunately gives the bat plenty of time to falter, but his ability to find the barrel and make consistent loud contact should help mitigate some risk. Hernandez has the ceiling of a solid starting catcher who can actually be a net-positive at the plate, unlike most MLB catchers in today's game. 22 year old Taylor Walls spent the entire season in Class A, which is not ideal for a 2017 college draftee (third round, 79th overall out of Florida State), but he was young for a college junior and slashed .304/.393/.428 with six home runs, 31 stolen bases, and an 80/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Bowling Green. He brings an advanced approach at the plate, lots of line drive contact, and good speed as well as sound infield defense. He should be able to handle shortstop and profiles best as a utility infielder, one who won't hit for much power but who can get on base and play pretty much any position. 17 year old Wander Franco, not to be confused with his brother, Astros prospect Wander Franco, his other brother, Giants prospect Wander Franco, or his father, former minor leaguer Wander Franco, is the best and most exciting prospect in this system (and the best of all the Wander Franco's). At just 17 years old, Franco slashed .351/.418/.587 with eleven home runs and a 19/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games at rookie level Princeton, showing an exceptional feel for the strike zone as well as the barrel, more power than you'd expect from a 5'10" teenager, and the possibility to stay at shortstop, all well shy of even being able to legally buy a lottery ticket. Players can develop offensive skill sets like Franco's, but they rarely if ever do it at that age and virtually never while being able to play the middle infield. A lot can happen between rookie ball and the majors, but Franco is set to turn 18 during spring training and he is already way, way, way ahead of the curve. His ceiling is that of a perennial All Star. 22 year old Tyler Frank, a Florida native and Florida Atlantic University alum, was the Rays' second round pick (56th overall) in 2018 and got off to a hot start by slashing .288/.425/.412 with two home runs and a 28/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games at short season Hudson Valley. While he doesn't have much punch in his bat yet, his advanced approach at the plate will help him move quickly through the minors and could give him a job as a utility man in the near future. If he adds a little power like he is capable of, he has a shot at competing for a starting spot at shortstop or second base. Lastly, 18 year old Nick Schnell was a compensation round pick (32nd overall) out of an Indianapolis high school in 2018 and didn't get off to quite as fast of a start, slashing .239/.378/.373 with one home run and a 23/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games in complex ball. He has plenty of raw power and the patience to help inflate his on-base percentages, and the Rays hope that once he gets some development time under his belt after playing high school ball in the Midwest, he can blossom into a middle of the order hitter whose great right field defense can help make him an impact player. Of course, the 18 year old has a lot to work on to get there.
Mid and Upper Minors Arms: RHP Brent Honeywell, LHP Colin Poche, RHP Rollie Lacy, RHP Phoenix Sanders, LHP Resly Linares, RHP Tobias Myers, and RHP Austin Franklin
The Rays get deeper and deeper in arms the lower you go in the farm system, with the recent graduations of Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Ryne Stanek, and many others, as well as the trades of Brock Burke and Genesis Cabrera, thinning the group at the top. 23 year old Brent Honeywell should have been on that graduation list as well, but he missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery and lasts another year on prospect lists. Honeywell is a 6'2" right handed pitcher who checks all the boxes of a future frontline starter, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball complimented by a full array of secondaries, most notably a devastating screwball. He also adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which except the curve can get consistent swings and misses, and he commands everything extremely well. He would have been yet another one of the big names in the 2018 rookie class had he not gone down with surgery, but he'll get another shot in 2019 to prove that he's the real deal. Honeywell has the ceiling of a true ace, and if he comes back healthy and the same pitcher he was before the surgery, he'll be at least an effective #4 starter. 25 year old Colin Poche has been absolutely lights out since the Diamondbacks drafted him in the 14th round out of Dallas Baptist in 2016 (10-3, 1.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 227/55 K/BB career), and he topped it off with arguably the minors' best season by a reliever in 2018: 6-0, 0.82 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 110/19 K/BB in 66 innings between AA and AAA. That's right, the 6'3" lefty struck out 45.6% of those he faced, walked just 7.9%, and allowed just seven runs (six earned) to cross the plate in 66 innings of work in the minor leagues' highest levels. He throws his fastball in the low 90's but gets lots of deception and lands it right where he wants it, adding a hard, effective slider to keep hitters off balance and rack up the strikeouts. He has a classic set-up profile and should be an impact reliever for the Rays beginning in 2019. 23 year old Rollie Lacy, the former Creighton Bluejay who was traded from the Cubs to the Rangers in the Cole Hamels trade in 2018, then from the Rangers to the Rays in a massive three team deal this offseason, posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 121/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 innings between Class A and High A in 2018. He sits right around 90 with his fastball and adds a decent curve and changeup, but everything plays up due to his command and his ability to keep the ball on the ground. He looks like a #5 starter or a long reliever at this point. 23 year old Phoenix Sanders is a local product as a native of Gainesville, Florida and a former USF Bull, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings between Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte. He's a 5'10" righty with a low 90's fastball and a decent slider and changeup, but he controls everything well and should be a useful middle reliever in the near future. 21 year old Resly Linares has quietly jumped onto national prospect radars over the past two seasons, posting a 3.20 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 97/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.1 innings at Bowling Green in 2018. Linares doesn't throw that hard and sits in the low 90's, adding a good curveball and a fairly advanced changeup that he has decent command of. He's fairly projectable at 6'2" and as a lefty, he has a high floor and will be useful in a variety of roles. Overall, he projects as a #3 or #4 starter, but I get a good feeling that 2019 could be a breakout season and he could be much more. 20 year old Tobias Myers, another local product (Winter Haven, FL), got out of that dreadful Orioles' pitching development program in the Tim Beckham trade and has improved considerably with the Rays, posting a 3.71 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 101/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings at Class A Bowling Green in 2018. He's just six feet tall but sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball, commanding everything fairly well and looking like a solid #3 or #4 starter on the right days. He still needs to get more consistent with that command and improve his changeup, but he's a nice arm to track and the Rays do well with developing pitchers. Lastly, 21 year old Austin Franklin is yet another Florida arm (from Paxton, up in the panhandle on the Alabama line), and he posted a 3.62 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 65/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings at Bowling Green. He has better stuff than all the Bowling Green arms listed before him on this list (Sanders, Linares, Myers), coming in with a low 90's fastball, a power curveball, and an advanced changeup, all of which generate outs in their own ways. However, the 6'3" righty has very mediocre command and gets hit far harder than he should, leading to a lower strikeout rate that is a bit of a red flag for now. However, the Rays will continuously work with him to hit his spots and get ahead in the count, which will help his stuff play up and push him towards being a solid #3 starter. However, without the command, he risks being bumped to the bullpen.
Low Minors Arms: RHP Simon Rosenblum-Larson, RHP Shane Baz, RHP Michael Mercado, LHP Shane McClanahan, LHP Matthew Liberatore, and RHP Sandy Gaston
The Rays probably have the best collection of low minors pitchers in the game, especially if you throw in Resly Linares, Tobias Myers, and Austin Franklin up at Class A. I really like a lot of these guys, and I think they could pull quite a few impact pitchers out of the group. 22 year old Simon Rosenblum-Larson is actually the lowest regarded prospect in this group, but I had to include him after a fantastic debut where he posted a 1.16 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and a 62/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings between short season Hudson Valley and Class A Bowling Green this year. He was a 19th round pick out of Harvard in 2018, and he actually faltered over his last few appearances of the season; through August 24th, he had a 0.25 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, and a 58/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 36.2 innings, having allowed just one earned run through those 36.2 innings. He doesn't throw all that hard but has a great feel for pitching and mixes his pitches effectively, and he'll look to rise as a middle reliever type. 19 year old Shane Baz came over from the Pirates in the Chris Archer trade, and he is immensely talented despite a somewhat slow start to his pro career. In 2018, he posted a 4.47 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 59/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings in rookie ball, flashing great stuff but showing that his command might be a little further behind than anticipated. Baz is a 6'3" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a very deep arsenal of secondary pitches, all of which are very effective. He brings a hard cutter that gives hitters a different look from his fastball, throws both a slider and a curveball with significant bat-missing ability, and adds a solid changeup. With all of these pitches, his command sometimes falters and he hasn't always been the most consistent with his delivery, leading to him getting hit harder than he should. Still, he won't turn 20 until June and scouts love his makeup and competitiveness, giving him top of the rotation potential if he can pull it all together. 19 year old Michael Mercado is another high school draftee from that 2017 class (second round, 40th overall from San Diego) that has gotten off to a slow start. In 2018, Mercado posted a 5.22 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 38/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings at Hudson Valley, struggling to miss bats as he learned to command his pitches. He sits in the low 90's and adds a pretty good curveball, but his control is ahead of his command at this point and that is where he gets hurt with his decent stuff. He's extremely projectable at 6'4" and I really liked him on draft day in 2017, and he's really only a few tweaks away from breaking out as a prospect and potential mid-rotation arm. At this point, though, his mean projection is looking more like a #4 or #5 starter without those steps forward. 21 year old Shane McClanahan was the Rays' compensation pick (31st overall) in the 2018 draft out of USF, a year after his college teammate Phoenix Sanders was a tenth rounder to Tampa. McClanahan, a Florida Gulf Coast native from Cape Coral, was sharp in his debut and tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, one walk, and 13 strikeouts between complex ball and rookie level Princeton, though he faltered in the Appalachian League playoffs and allowed four runs in three innings. He's a 6'1" lefty with a blazing fastball that sits in the upper 90's, adding a decent slider and a great changeup to keep hitters off balance. However, he struggles with his command and with the lack of a good breaking ball, he has some adjustments to make in his transition to full season ball in 2019. In order to remain a starter, he'll either have to improve his command or slider, though improving both could make him a #2 guy. Without big steps forward in either of those areas, though, McClanahan runs the risk of ending up in the bullpen, where his fastball/changeup combination could make him a high-leverage reliever. 19 year old Matthew Liberatore, the Rays' first round pick (16th overall) out of high school in Phoenix, was one of my favorite draft prospects ever and he posted a 1.38 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 37/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings between complex ball and Princeton. Liberatore is a 6'5" lefty who has a ton of similarities to Clayton Kershaw including size, handedness, velocity, breaking balls, command, and even delivery. He sits in the low 90's projects for more, and he has already hit 97 a few times. When it comes to offspeeds, he adds a big breaking curveball, a new, sharp slider, and an advanced changeup, all of which he commands and mixes well. I am a huge fan of Liberatore's ceiling as a guy who could have plus stuff and plus command, and while most project him as a mid-rotation starter, I think he has #2 or even ace upside. Keep a close eye on Liberatore in 2019. Lastly, 17 year old Sandy Gaston has not appeared in the minor leagues but he throws comfortably in the mid 90's from a projectable 6'3" frame. These young teenagers can develop in any number of directions, especially given that Gaston won't turn 18 until after the 2019 season, but he has high upside if he can improve his command and secondary pitches.
Two Way Players: Brendan McKay and Tanner Dodson
No, I didn't forget these guys. As far as I know, there are four legitimate two-way players in American pro baseball, and the Rays have the second and third best behind Shohei Ohtani and ahead of my former high school teammate Andy McGuire (now in the Blue Jays' system). 23 year old Brendan McKay's arm is ahead of his bat, and in 2018 he posted a 2.41 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 103/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings between complex ball rehab, Class A Bowling Green, and High A Charlotte. He's a 6'2" lefty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curveball to go along with a cutter and a changeup, and he commands everything very well. He's a classic innings eating, mid-rotation starter with a high floor as a back-end guy. At the plate, he slashed .214/.368/.359 with six home runs and a 52/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at the same levels, showing great plate discipline but struggling to tap into the home run power that got him drafted as a two way player. The Rays are shifting him from first base to DH for the 2019 season, which they hope will help him develop both as a pitcher and a hitter with one less thing on his plate. He still has a shot at being a 25 homer bat, but he'll need to start tapping into that power in 2019 if he wants to get that chance. 21 year old Tanner Dodson isn't a starter like McKay, instead splitting time between the bullpen and the outfield at California before being drafted in the competitive balance round (71st overall) in 2018. On the mound, he posted a 1.44 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings at short season Hudson Valley, showing a mid 90's fastball and a great slider that misses bats. He also commands both pitches well, giving him the set-up man upside. At the plate, Dodson slashed .273/.344/.369 with two home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 34/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games for Hudson Valley, showing more speed and contact than power. He actually could stick in center field and he has a sound enough approach and bat-to-ball skill set that he could be a useful fourth outfielder, but I see his future as being on the mound. We'll see how the Rays deal with that in 2019.
Affiliates: AAA Durham Bulls, AA Montgomery Biscuits, High A Charlotte Stone Crabs, Class A Bowling Green Hot Rods, Short Season Hudson Valley Renegades, rookie level Princeton Rays, complex level GCL and DSL Rays
High Minors Bats: 2B Brandon Lowe, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, OF Jesus Sanchez, 2B Nick Solak, and SS Lucius Fox
We'll start by getting the more advanced hitters out of the way, even though most of the excitement lies lower in the system. 24 year old Brandon Lowe, the first of Tampa Bay's three star Lowes to make the majors, slashed .297/.391/.558 with 22 home runs and a 102/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham in 2018 before putting up a .233/.324/.450 line with six home runs in his 43 game major league debut. Because he finished with 129 at bats, he just barely retains prospect status for 2019, but he has a very good shot at grabbing playing time quickly in Tampa. He's naturally a second baseman but has also seen time in the outifeld, giving him some positional flexibility that makes his bat more valuable. He's not quite an impact hitter, but Lowe can post solid on-base percentages while hitting 15-20 home runs per season, meaning he should fit right into the Rays' long term plans and be a steady bat and glove in their lineup for at least the next few seasons. 23 year old Nathaniel Lowe, not related to Brandon despite also having been born in Virginia's Hampton Roads area (Brandon grew up in Suffolk, Nathaniel moved to the Atlanta area), had a huge breakout in 2018 by slashing .330/.416/.568 with 27 home runs and a 90/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A Charlotte, Montgomery, and Durham in 2018. In just one season, Lowe went from average hitting first baseman who was more or less organizational depth to a legitimate impact bat who slashed .356/.432/.588 in High A, .340/.444/.606 in AA, and .260/.327/.460 in AAA. He still doesn't provide much value on defense, but he has shown above average power as well as the ability to get to it consistently in the high minors, and he could crack the Rays starting lineup at some point early in 2019. Long term, he's likely a platoon bat just because the offensive bar is so high for first basemen, but expect him to get some big hits in the near future as a guy who, at best, could hit 20-25 home runs per season with pretty decent on-base percentages. 21 year old Jesus Sanchez wasn't as highly regarded as some of the others stars in 2014 international free agent class, but he has done nothing but hit since signing and slashed .282/.324/.433 with eleven home runs and a 92/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Charlotte and Montgomery in 2018. Sanchez has no standout tool but does everything well, showing some power, the ability to find the barrel and get on base, and good outfield defense, all against mostly older competition. He still needs a little more time for his bat to acclimate to the upper minors, but Sanchez has the ability to be a net-positive on both sides of the ball, and if he can improve his plate discipline just a little bit, he could be an impact hitter with 15-20 home run power and solid on-base percentages in the long run. 24 year old Nick Solak, who came over from the Yankees in last offseason's big three-team trade that included Steven Souza and Brandon Drury, slashed .282/.384/.450 with 19 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 112/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Montgomery in his first season in the Rays' system. The Louisville product is definitely more well known for his bat, as he makes consistent hard contact and draws plenty of walks, which together have helped him turn in a gaudy .296/.390/.445 line with 34 home runs in three minor league seasons. His ability to find the barrel helps his power play up, and what was once a utility projection now has some room for a future in the starting lineup. He's mediocre at second base but the Rays reportedly love his makeup and work ethic, which has likely kept him from being forced into the outfield. I'm not sure Solak cuts it as a long term second baseman, but he keeps improving with the bat and could have a similar offensive profile to Sanchez when all is said and done, if with a little less power and a few more walks. Lastly, 21 year old Lucius Fox has the best name in the Rays' system, and he slashed .268/.351/.341 with three home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 99/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games between Charlotte and Montgomery. Arguably the top prospect in the 2015 international free agent class when he signed, the Bahamian's bat has been fairly slow to develop but he shows plenty of speed and draws enough walks to keep himself in top prospect discussions. Defensively, he plays a solid if unspectacular shortstop, which buys his bat time, and he could start there down the road if he can show a little more thump in his bat. If not, he profiles as a speedy utility infielder, and 2019 should be telling as to where his future lies.
Low and Mid Minors Bats: 2B Vidal Brujan, C Ronaldo Hernandez, SS Taylor Walls, SS Wander Franco, 2B Tyler Frank, and OF Nick Schnell
While many of the upper-minors bats are fringe-starters aside from Jesus Sanchez, there is some real excitement down a few rungs on the farm, with a few hitters having legitimate star potential. 21 year old Vidal Brujan is one of the top prospects in the entire system, his huge breakout season consisting of a .320/.403/.459 slash line, nine home runs, 55 stolen bases, and a 68/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte, and he actually hit better after the promotion (.347/.434/.582 in 27 games) than before (.313/.395/.427 in 95 games). Despite standing just 5'9", Brujan's huge season as a 20 year old in A ball showed a great feel for the barrel, excellent plate discipline, and top-flight speed that could make him an impact leadoff man at the major league level. He's pretty good at second base but isn't the most consistent, and he could make a great center fielder if the Rays choose to go that route. Either way, look for Brujan as the Rays' leadoff man of the future beginning sometime around 2020. 21 year old Ronaldo Hernandez emerged as the system's clear top catching prospect by slashing .284/.339/.494 with 21 home runs and a 69/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Bowling Green, his raw power taking a step forward. Unlike most young catchers, Hernandez can both field and hit well, showing power, on-base ability, the ability to keep strikeouts down, and all around good defense behind the plate. He has not played above Class A, which unfortunately gives the bat plenty of time to falter, but his ability to find the barrel and make consistent loud contact should help mitigate some risk. Hernandez has the ceiling of a solid starting catcher who can actually be a net-positive at the plate, unlike most MLB catchers in today's game. 22 year old Taylor Walls spent the entire season in Class A, which is not ideal for a 2017 college draftee (third round, 79th overall out of Florida State), but he was young for a college junior and slashed .304/.393/.428 with six home runs, 31 stolen bases, and an 80/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Bowling Green. He brings an advanced approach at the plate, lots of line drive contact, and good speed as well as sound infield defense. He should be able to handle shortstop and profiles best as a utility infielder, one who won't hit for much power but who can get on base and play pretty much any position. 17 year old Wander Franco, not to be confused with his brother, Astros prospect Wander Franco, his other brother, Giants prospect Wander Franco, or his father, former minor leaguer Wander Franco, is the best and most exciting prospect in this system (and the best of all the Wander Franco's). At just 17 years old, Franco slashed .351/.418/.587 with eleven home runs and a 19/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games at rookie level Princeton, showing an exceptional feel for the strike zone as well as the barrel, more power than you'd expect from a 5'10" teenager, and the possibility to stay at shortstop, all well shy of even being able to legally buy a lottery ticket. Players can develop offensive skill sets like Franco's, but they rarely if ever do it at that age and virtually never while being able to play the middle infield. A lot can happen between rookie ball and the majors, but Franco is set to turn 18 during spring training and he is already way, way, way ahead of the curve. His ceiling is that of a perennial All Star. 22 year old Tyler Frank, a Florida native and Florida Atlantic University alum, was the Rays' second round pick (56th overall) in 2018 and got off to a hot start by slashing .288/.425/.412 with two home runs and a 28/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games at short season Hudson Valley. While he doesn't have much punch in his bat yet, his advanced approach at the plate will help him move quickly through the minors and could give him a job as a utility man in the near future. If he adds a little power like he is capable of, he has a shot at competing for a starting spot at shortstop or second base. Lastly, 18 year old Nick Schnell was a compensation round pick (32nd overall) out of an Indianapolis high school in 2018 and didn't get off to quite as fast of a start, slashing .239/.378/.373 with one home run and a 23/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games in complex ball. He has plenty of raw power and the patience to help inflate his on-base percentages, and the Rays hope that once he gets some development time under his belt after playing high school ball in the Midwest, he can blossom into a middle of the order hitter whose great right field defense can help make him an impact player. Of course, the 18 year old has a lot to work on to get there.
Mid and Upper Minors Arms: RHP Brent Honeywell, LHP Colin Poche, RHP Rollie Lacy, RHP Phoenix Sanders, LHP Resly Linares, RHP Tobias Myers, and RHP Austin Franklin
The Rays get deeper and deeper in arms the lower you go in the farm system, with the recent graduations of Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Ryne Stanek, and many others, as well as the trades of Brock Burke and Genesis Cabrera, thinning the group at the top. 23 year old Brent Honeywell should have been on that graduation list as well, but he missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery and lasts another year on prospect lists. Honeywell is a 6'2" right handed pitcher who checks all the boxes of a future frontline starter, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball complimented by a full array of secondaries, most notably a devastating screwball. He also adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which except the curve can get consistent swings and misses, and he commands everything extremely well. He would have been yet another one of the big names in the 2018 rookie class had he not gone down with surgery, but he'll get another shot in 2019 to prove that he's the real deal. Honeywell has the ceiling of a true ace, and if he comes back healthy and the same pitcher he was before the surgery, he'll be at least an effective #4 starter. 25 year old Colin Poche has been absolutely lights out since the Diamondbacks drafted him in the 14th round out of Dallas Baptist in 2016 (10-3, 1.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 227/55 K/BB career), and he topped it off with arguably the minors' best season by a reliever in 2018: 6-0, 0.82 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 110/19 K/BB in 66 innings between AA and AAA. That's right, the 6'3" lefty struck out 45.6% of those he faced, walked just 7.9%, and allowed just seven runs (six earned) to cross the plate in 66 innings of work in the minor leagues' highest levels. He throws his fastball in the low 90's but gets lots of deception and lands it right where he wants it, adding a hard, effective slider to keep hitters off balance and rack up the strikeouts. He has a classic set-up profile and should be an impact reliever for the Rays beginning in 2019. 23 year old Rollie Lacy, the former Creighton Bluejay who was traded from the Cubs to the Rangers in the Cole Hamels trade in 2018, then from the Rangers to the Rays in a massive three team deal this offseason, posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 121/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 innings between Class A and High A in 2018. He sits right around 90 with his fastball and adds a decent curve and changeup, but everything plays up due to his command and his ability to keep the ball on the ground. He looks like a #5 starter or a long reliever at this point. 23 year old Phoenix Sanders is a local product as a native of Gainesville, Florida and a former USF Bull, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings between Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte. He's a 5'10" righty with a low 90's fastball and a decent slider and changeup, but he controls everything well and should be a useful middle reliever in the near future. 21 year old Resly Linares has quietly jumped onto national prospect radars over the past two seasons, posting a 3.20 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 97/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.1 innings at Bowling Green in 2018. Linares doesn't throw that hard and sits in the low 90's, adding a good curveball and a fairly advanced changeup that he has decent command of. He's fairly projectable at 6'2" and as a lefty, he has a high floor and will be useful in a variety of roles. Overall, he projects as a #3 or #4 starter, but I get a good feeling that 2019 could be a breakout season and he could be much more. 20 year old Tobias Myers, another local product (Winter Haven, FL), got out of that dreadful Orioles' pitching development program in the Tim Beckham trade and has improved considerably with the Rays, posting a 3.71 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 101/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings at Class A Bowling Green in 2018. He's just six feet tall but sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball, commanding everything fairly well and looking like a solid #3 or #4 starter on the right days. He still needs to get more consistent with that command and improve his changeup, but he's a nice arm to track and the Rays do well with developing pitchers. Lastly, 21 year old Austin Franklin is yet another Florida arm (from Paxton, up in the panhandle on the Alabama line), and he posted a 3.62 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 65/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings at Bowling Green. He has better stuff than all the Bowling Green arms listed before him on this list (Sanders, Linares, Myers), coming in with a low 90's fastball, a power curveball, and an advanced changeup, all of which generate outs in their own ways. However, the 6'3" righty has very mediocre command and gets hit far harder than he should, leading to a lower strikeout rate that is a bit of a red flag for now. However, the Rays will continuously work with him to hit his spots and get ahead in the count, which will help his stuff play up and push him towards being a solid #3 starter. However, without the command, he risks being bumped to the bullpen.
Low Minors Arms: RHP Simon Rosenblum-Larson, RHP Shane Baz, RHP Michael Mercado, LHP Shane McClanahan, LHP Matthew Liberatore, and RHP Sandy Gaston
The Rays probably have the best collection of low minors pitchers in the game, especially if you throw in Resly Linares, Tobias Myers, and Austin Franklin up at Class A. I really like a lot of these guys, and I think they could pull quite a few impact pitchers out of the group. 22 year old Simon Rosenblum-Larson is actually the lowest regarded prospect in this group, but I had to include him after a fantastic debut where he posted a 1.16 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and a 62/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings between short season Hudson Valley and Class A Bowling Green this year. He was a 19th round pick out of Harvard in 2018, and he actually faltered over his last few appearances of the season; through August 24th, he had a 0.25 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, and a 58/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 36.2 innings, having allowed just one earned run through those 36.2 innings. He doesn't throw all that hard but has a great feel for pitching and mixes his pitches effectively, and he'll look to rise as a middle reliever type. 19 year old Shane Baz came over from the Pirates in the Chris Archer trade, and he is immensely talented despite a somewhat slow start to his pro career. In 2018, he posted a 4.47 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 59/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings in rookie ball, flashing great stuff but showing that his command might be a little further behind than anticipated. Baz is a 6'3" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a very deep arsenal of secondary pitches, all of which are very effective. He brings a hard cutter that gives hitters a different look from his fastball, throws both a slider and a curveball with significant bat-missing ability, and adds a solid changeup. With all of these pitches, his command sometimes falters and he hasn't always been the most consistent with his delivery, leading to him getting hit harder than he should. Still, he won't turn 20 until June and scouts love his makeup and competitiveness, giving him top of the rotation potential if he can pull it all together. 19 year old Michael Mercado is another high school draftee from that 2017 class (second round, 40th overall from San Diego) that has gotten off to a slow start. In 2018, Mercado posted a 5.22 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 38/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings at Hudson Valley, struggling to miss bats as he learned to command his pitches. He sits in the low 90's and adds a pretty good curveball, but his control is ahead of his command at this point and that is where he gets hurt with his decent stuff. He's extremely projectable at 6'4" and I really liked him on draft day in 2017, and he's really only a few tweaks away from breaking out as a prospect and potential mid-rotation arm. At this point, though, his mean projection is looking more like a #4 or #5 starter without those steps forward. 21 year old Shane McClanahan was the Rays' compensation pick (31st overall) in the 2018 draft out of USF, a year after his college teammate Phoenix Sanders was a tenth rounder to Tampa. McClanahan, a Florida Gulf Coast native from Cape Coral, was sharp in his debut and tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, one walk, and 13 strikeouts between complex ball and rookie level Princeton, though he faltered in the Appalachian League playoffs and allowed four runs in three innings. He's a 6'1" lefty with a blazing fastball that sits in the upper 90's, adding a decent slider and a great changeup to keep hitters off balance. However, he struggles with his command and with the lack of a good breaking ball, he has some adjustments to make in his transition to full season ball in 2019. In order to remain a starter, he'll either have to improve his command or slider, though improving both could make him a #2 guy. Without big steps forward in either of those areas, though, McClanahan runs the risk of ending up in the bullpen, where his fastball/changeup combination could make him a high-leverage reliever. 19 year old Matthew Liberatore, the Rays' first round pick (16th overall) out of high school in Phoenix, was one of my favorite draft prospects ever and he posted a 1.38 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 37/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings between complex ball and Princeton. Liberatore is a 6'5" lefty who has a ton of similarities to Clayton Kershaw including size, handedness, velocity, breaking balls, command, and even delivery. He sits in the low 90's projects for more, and he has already hit 97 a few times. When it comes to offspeeds, he adds a big breaking curveball, a new, sharp slider, and an advanced changeup, all of which he commands and mixes well. I am a huge fan of Liberatore's ceiling as a guy who could have plus stuff and plus command, and while most project him as a mid-rotation starter, I think he has #2 or even ace upside. Keep a close eye on Liberatore in 2019. Lastly, 17 year old Sandy Gaston has not appeared in the minor leagues but he throws comfortably in the mid 90's from a projectable 6'3" frame. These young teenagers can develop in any number of directions, especially given that Gaston won't turn 18 until after the 2019 season, but he has high upside if he can improve his command and secondary pitches.
Two Way Players: Brendan McKay and Tanner Dodson
No, I didn't forget these guys. As far as I know, there are four legitimate two-way players in American pro baseball, and the Rays have the second and third best behind Shohei Ohtani and ahead of my former high school teammate Andy McGuire (now in the Blue Jays' system). 23 year old Brendan McKay's arm is ahead of his bat, and in 2018 he posted a 2.41 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 103/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings between complex ball rehab, Class A Bowling Green, and High A Charlotte. He's a 6'2" lefty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curveball to go along with a cutter and a changeup, and he commands everything very well. He's a classic innings eating, mid-rotation starter with a high floor as a back-end guy. At the plate, he slashed .214/.368/.359 with six home runs and a 52/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at the same levels, showing great plate discipline but struggling to tap into the home run power that got him drafted as a two way player. The Rays are shifting him from first base to DH for the 2019 season, which they hope will help him develop both as a pitcher and a hitter with one less thing on his plate. He still has a shot at being a 25 homer bat, but he'll need to start tapping into that power in 2019 if he wants to get that chance. 21 year old Tanner Dodson isn't a starter like McKay, instead splitting time between the bullpen and the outfield at California before being drafted in the competitive balance round (71st overall) in 2018. On the mound, he posted a 1.44 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings at short season Hudson Valley, showing a mid 90's fastball and a great slider that misses bats. He also commands both pitches well, giving him the set-up man upside. At the plate, Dodson slashed .273/.344/.369 with two home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 34/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games for Hudson Valley, showing more speed and contact than power. He actually could stick in center field and he has a sound enough approach and bat-to-ball skill set that he could be a useful fourth outfielder, but I see his future as being on the mound. We'll see how the Rays deal with that in 2019.
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