Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi for Prospect Jermaine Palacios

Twins Get: Jake Odorizzi: 10-8, 4.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 127/61 K/BB, 143.1 innings

Rays Get: minor leaguer Jermaine Palacios: 13 HR, .296/.333/.454, 20 SB, 124 wRC+ at Class A and High Class A

The Twins made a smart trade in acquiring starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi, while the trade could work out in the Rays favor as well. Good, proven pitching is hard to come by, and while Odorizzi has only one year left on his contract (at $6.3 million), he has made at least 28 starts in each of the past four seasons, posting ERA's of 4.13, 3.35, 3.69, and 4.14. He missed two short stretches to minor hamstring and back injuries but was otherwise pretty consistent, and he closed out the season with a strong September in which he posted a 1.03 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and a 30/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings. On the down side, his 21% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate were both career worsts, as were his 15.3% soft hit rate and 36.8% hard hit rate. Still, the 27 year old is a classic mid-rotation starter, one who slots in nicely with Ervin Santana (once he recovers from finger surgery around the start of May), Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, and some combination of Phil Hughes, Adalberto Mejia, and Stephen Gonsalves. This is the third trade of Odorizzi's career, but after being a part of the Zack Greinke deal of 2010 and the James Shields/Wade Davis/Wil Myers trade of 2012, he gets to headline his own trade this time. For his career, the southern Illinois native is 40-38 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 129 games (126 starts).

The Rays brought back only one prospect, shortstop Jermaine Palacios, but he has a chance to make a difference in for Tampa down the road. After a forgettable 2016 season for Class A Cedar Rapids (1 HR, .222/.276/.287 in 71 games), Palacios repeated the level in 2017 and the results were remarkably different. Over 62 games, the 20 year old cracked eleven home runs and slashed .320/.362/.544 while stealing nine bases with a 46/12 strikeout to walk ratio, earning a promotion to High Class A Fort Myers. In 62 games, he struggled a bit more, slashing .269/.303/.359 with a pair of home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio. Personally, he looks like a big risk to me, given his aggressive approach and the fact that he hasn't actually proven that he can hit above Class A. The Rays are betting on the tools here, given Palacios' gap power, speed, and defense, but he has to tone down his approach as well as learn to use his speed more effectively on the bases. His ceiling may be Francisco Lindor with less defense and power, but he could also flame out in AA. He turns 22 in July.

Giants Add Lefty Tony Watson to Bullpen

Tony Watson: 7-4, 3.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 53/20 K/BB, 66.2 innings
Three years, $7 million

After growing up in Iowa, attending Nebraska for college, and pitching for Pittsburgh for the first six and a half years of his career, Tony Watson was traded to the Dodgers in 2017 and I guess he liked the West Coast, as he has signed a three year deal with the Giants. San Francisco is desperately trying to turn its team around, having already acquired Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Austin Jackson, and Gregor Blanco this year while more or less losing only Denard Span and Christian Arroyo, but they haven't touched the pitching staff yet. The bullpen has some upside with Mark Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Sam Dyson, Will Smith, and Cody Gearrin pencilled in, among others, but they all come with their own question marks (except maybe Strickland), and the team's core of lefties (Smith, Ty Blach, Josh Osich, Steven Okert) is pretty mediocre. Watson, a lefty, hasn't posted an ERA above 3.38 since his rookie 2011 season, and was one of the most reliable lefties in baseball for the Pirates from 2013-2015 (1.97 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 224.1 innings). His ERA went up in 2016 (3.06) and again in 2017 (3.38), and though his 1.38 WHIP in 2017 was the worst of his career, it may have been due to some batted ball luck. His .317 opponents' BABIP was also a career high, indicating bad luck, and his 22.5% hard contact rate was actually his lowest since 2014. However, on the down side, his 18.2% strikeout rate was a career low, so Watson ultimately has factors working for and against him in 2018, and we'll just have to wait and see. For his career, Watson is 33-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 474 appearances.

Mets Seek Consistency, Add Jason Vargas

Jason Vargas: 18-11, 4.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 134/58 K/BB, 179.2 innings
Two years, $16 million

The Mets' rotation was plagued by injuries and inconsistency last season, with Noah Syndergaard (just seven starts), Matt Harvey (5-7, 6.70 ERA), Steven Matz (2-7, 6.08 ERA), and Robert Gsellman (8-7, 5.19 ERA) all failing to live up to expectations (in Syndergaard's case, through no fault of his own). Bringing in veteran Jason Vargas, who missed time to injuries in 2015 and 2016 but who has otherwise made at least 24 starts six times since 2010. Right now, the Mets' rotation has plenty of depth, but few sure things beyond Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Vargas will likely grab the third spot, and with Matt Harvey seemingly having the inside track to the fourth spot given his track record, that leaves a lot of competition for spot number five. Matz, Gsellman, Seth Lugo, and Zack Wheeler all have starting experience in the majors, as does Chris Flexen (though he's less likely to get a spot). Vargas is coming off a solid season, going 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 32 starts. While I don't particularly care about his 18 wins, the fact that he made 32 starts was a good sign and his 17.7% strikeout rate was the highest full-season mark of his career. Though typically more of a fly ball pitcher, he was also able to just barely set a career full-season high with a 40.3% ground ball rate (just above his 40.2% rates in both 2012 and 2013). This isn't a top of the rotation pitcher, but it is a bit of consistency in a Mets rotation that badly needs it. For his career, the former LSU Tiger and Long Beach State Dirtbag is 85-81 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 248 games (228 starts) since 2005.

Blue Jays Sign Jaime Garcia

Jaime Garcia: 5-10, 4.41 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 129/64 K/BB, 157 innings

One year, $8 million

The Blue Jays made a fairly similar signing to the Orioles' Andrew Cashner deal by bringing in veteran lefty Jaime Garcia. While the Blue Jays' rotation isn't nearly as atrocious as their AL East rival's, the team did lack a dependable fifth starter behind Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, and Marco Estrada. Like Cashner, Garcia has been dominant at times; in 2010, he was 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 28 starts, and in 2015, he was 10-6 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 20 starts. He has also been down; since 2016, Garcia is 15-23 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 59 games (57 starts). He's unlikely to climb back to the heights he reached in 2016 and 2017, but he should be a valuable fifth starter at the very least (as long as he stays healthy), and could be a mid-rotation force if all goes well. For his career, the lefty out of the Rio Grande Valley is 67-55 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 185 games (174 starts). Interestingly, after spending 2008-2016 all with the Cardinals, the Blue Jays will be his fourth team in two seasons (he pitched for the Braves, Twins, and Yankees in 2017). 

Orioles Add Andrew Cashner to Empty Rotation

Andrew Cashner: 11-11, 3.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 86/64 K/BB, 166.2 IP
Two years, $16 million, $10 million vesting player option for 2020 for 340 total innings pitched

Starting pitching has been a nightmare recently for the Orioles. Last season, their starters finished with a 5.70 ERA, the worst in all of baseball, and many of those starters aren't even returning. Gone are Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman, and Wade Miley, leaving only Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy as returners with established starting experience. This is where Andrew Cashner, an eight year veteran with an inconsistent track record, comes in. He has certainly had his ups; from 2013-2014, he went 15-16 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 50 games (45 starts) for the Padres. However, there have also been lows; between the Padres and Marlins in 2016, he went 5-11 with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 28 games (27 starts). 2017 was somewhat of a middle ground, as his 3.40 ERA was nice to look at, but he was helped by a .267 BABIP and that 86/64 strikeout to walk ratio in 166.2 innings was just a bit frightening. His tumbling strikeout rate, which has dropped from 20.5% in 2015 to 19.1% in 2016 to 12.2% in 2017, is likely a sign that Cashner isn't due for a long term deal, but he does a good-enough job of keeping the ball on the ground so he should be able to handle Camden Yards. Either way, he's a huge help to a rotation that looks to be headed by Kevin Gausman (11-12, 4.68 ERA) and Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 ERA), with the final two spots to be made up of some combination of Gabriel Ynoa, Alec Asher, Miguel Castro, and possibly Mike Wright or Nestor Cortes, none of whom have spent even half a season starting in the major leagues. Hunter Harvey's eventual arrival can't come soon enough for Orioles fans. For his career, Cashner, a former TCU Horned Frog, is 42-64 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 230 games (137 appearances). 

Cubs Sign Yu Darvish

Yu Darvish: 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 209/58 K/BB, 186.2 IP
Six years, $126 million, up to $24 million in incentives

We didn't think it would take until mid-February, but Yu Darvish signed the first nine-figure contract of the offseason. The Cubs ran away with the NL Central in 2016 and 2017, and they have quietly retooled their pitching staff to ensure it happens again in 2018, adding Tyler Chatwood, Drew Smyly, Brandon Morrow, and Steve Cishek in addition to Darvish while the Cardinals added Marcell Ozuna and the Brewers picked up Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Jhoulys Chacin. Darvish joins one of the better rotations in baseball, one that features Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and some combination of Drew Smyly/Eddie Butler/Mike Montgomery. Darvish is on somewhat of a downward career trajectory at least in terms of ERA, as it jumped from 2.83 in 2013 and 3.06 in 2014 to 3.41 in 2016 and 3.86 in 2017 (he sat out 2015 with Tommy John surgery), and his FIP (3.83) and xFIP (3.62) were both career worsts. However, between his time in the AL in Texas (first 22 starts) and the NL in Los Angeles (9 starts), his ERA (4.01 to 3.44), FIP (3.99 to 3.38), and xFIP (3.82 to 3.19) all dropped dramatically, and he is still a very useful mid-rotation starter. Those are hard to find nowadays, and in short demand, $126 million is a fair price. People may be worried about his poor World Series performance (eight earned runs in 3.1 innings over two starts), but small samples tend to get more credit than they deserve, and the bad starts are probably more due to random chance than any kind of inability to perform in the clutch or negative career trend. For his career, Darvish is 56-42 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 1021/307 strikeout to walk ratio in 131 starts. 31 years old now, he'll be 37 at the end of the deal.

Mets Fill Infield Hole With Todd Frazier

Todd Frazier: 27 HR, .213/.344/.428, 4 SB, 108 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR
Two years, $17 million

The Mets have added Todd Frazier on a two year deal, bringing in the Jersey kid from Toms River to man third base while Asdrubal Cabrera slides to second. Frazier, despite batting .213 in 2017, was much better than you might think, as his .344 on-base percentage was actually a career high and he blasted 27 home runs. Together, it amounted to a 108 wRC+, comfortably above league average and further proving that batting average does not matter. Frazier could also be even better in 2018, considering his .226 BABIP was the second lowest among all qualified hitters in baseball (just behind Rougned Odor's .224). While his .271 career BABIP is quite low (and career BABIP is less indicative of luck than single-season BABIP), he was still incredibly unlucky in 2017, and Statcast tagged him with an xwOBA (expected wOBA based on quality of contact) of .352, plenty higher than his actual mark of .335, so that bounce-back is completely possible. He walks, he hits for power, and his defense isn't half bad either, so $17 million over two years is certainly worthwhile for the Mets. Personally, I think New York could be better than expected in 2018, but that is only if they stay healthy. Frazier joins Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce among established hitters in the Mets' lineup, and young guys like Amed Rosario and Dom Smith could supplement them well. On the mound, there are a lot of question marks, but if everything breaks right, this team could win a Wild Card. For his career, Frazier has 175 home runs, a .245/.321/.459 slash line, and 21.2 fWAR over 938 games.