2017 Season Preview: Cleveland Indians

Major Additions: Edwin Encarnacion, Boone Logan, Austin Jackson

Major Losses: Mike Napoli, Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, Joba Chamberlain

Strengths: Offense, Bullpen, Rotation

Weaknesses: Catching Depth

Potential Breakout Stars: Mike Clevinger, Ryan Merritt

If I were to put my money on any team winning the AL pennant this year, it would be the Cleveland Indians. This is a team that came out of the offseason stronger than it went in, despite having come one victory away from a World Series Championship in 2016. Their dynamic offense upgraded Mike Napoli (.239/.335/.465, 1.0 fWAR) to Edwin Encarnacion (.263/.357/.529, 3.9 fWAR) and will be bringing back Michael Brantley, one of the best hitters in baseball from 2014-2015 who missed all but eleven games in 2016 to shoulder surgery. On top of Encarnacion and Brantley, returning will be the all around baseball show that is Francisco Lindor, lineup anchors Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana, dynamic producer Jose Ramirez, and Tyler Naquin, who slashed .296/.372/.514 in a surprisingly successful rookie campaign in 2016. After seeing his production suffer due to nagging injuries, Yan Gomes will hopefully be back and healthy, but the catching corps is probably the biggest weakness for the Indians. Behind the questionable Gomes is Roberto Perez and his career .220/.318/.355 line, and behind him, there is Erik Kratz and his career .200/.248/.362 line. The rotation begins with perennial AL Cy Young candidate (and 2014 winner) Corey Kluber, followed by the trio of young guns in Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Trevor Bauer. Josh Tomlin rounds out the front five, coming off a season where he walked just 20 batters in 174 innings. There's depth here, too, with guys like Mike Clevinger, Cody Anderson, Ryan Merritt, Chris Narveson, Adam Plutko, Shawn Morimando, Rob Kaminsky, and Julian Merryweather all ready to step up in the case of injury. Merritt proved his worth on the big stage last season by dominating the Blue Jays in Game Five of the ALCS, allowing just two baserunners in 4.1 shutout innings. The bullpen is as strong as any in baseball, led by arguably baseball's best reliever in Andrew Miller (1.45 ERA, 0.69 WHIP) and the dominant Cody Allen (2.51 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). Bryan Shaw (3.24 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), Dan Otero (1.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP), and Zach McAllister (3.44 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) were assets last season, and the new addition of lefty Boone Logan (3.69 ERA, 1.01 WHIP in Colorado) only makes them stronger. For me, there's no reason not to think the Indians can repeat as AL champions. If Gomes can't hold down the starting catcher's job, they'll likely add another catcher at the deadline, leaving them with no holes whatsoever.

2017 Season Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

Major Additions: Wilson Ramos, Colby Rasmus, Shawn Tolleson, Jose De Leon, Mallex Smith

Major Losses: Drew Smyly, Logan Forsythe, Desmond Jennings, Alexei Ramirez

Strengths: Rotation, Overall Depth

Weaknesses: Impact Bats

Potential Breakout Stars: Entire AAA Rotation, Jake Bauers

The Rays have a very well balanced team, with plenty of depth at each position as well as on the pitching staff. What they lack, however, are impact bats. Evan Longoria slashed a respectable .273/.318/.521 last season, but you look at that career-low .318 on-base percentage and the fact that he just turned 31, and that combination doesn't scream "lineup anchor." What they lack top and middle of the order talent, they make up for in depth. Kevin Kiermaier, aside from being one of the best fielding outfielders in the game, slashed .246/.331/.410 and went 21 for 24 in stolen base attempts. Brad Miller nearly tripled his career high with 30 home runs last season, and Matt Duffy will look to get back to his 2015 self (.295/.334/.428). Colby Rasmus, Corey Dickerson, and Steven Souza all add to the balanced offense, while getting Wilson Ramos (.307/.354/.496) back early in the season will be a huge boost. The bench is strong, too, with guys like Nick Franklin (.270/.328/.443), Mallex Smith (.238/.316/.365, 16 SB), and former first overall pick Tim Beckham (.247/.300/.434). The starting rotation, in my opinion, is among the deepest in baseball. Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi are the two "sure things" at the top, but Alex Cobb will be returning for a full season after 2015 Tommy John surgery, and they have too many young guys ready to step up to count. Blake Snell was very good as a rookie last season, and Matt Andriese had a nice first full season too. Even beyond the guys with significant big league experience, Jose De Leon, Jacob Faria, Chih-Wei Hu, Jaime Schultz, Brent Honeywell, Ryan Yarbrough, Hunter Wood, and Taylor Guerrieri all look like they could be ready to join the big league rotation at some point in 2017. One thing is for sure about this Rays team; they won't have to worry about finding starting pitchers. In the bullpen, Alex Colome (1.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) is back after a big breakout year, while Brad Boxberger (4.81 ERA, 1.73 WHIP) and Shawn Tolleson (7.68 ERA, 1.73 WHIP) will look to bounce back from rough 2016's to the dominance they are capable of. From there, the bullpen looks to be a bit of mix and match, as Danny Farquhar, Xavier Cedeno, and Erasmo Ramirez have all had sporadic, but never sustained, success at the MLB level. In addition to the plethora of AAA starters listed above, prospect Ryne Stanek could also make an impact in the bullpen.

Article Published on Blasting News US

I published an article on Statcast's effect on Major League Baseball on Blasting News US. Link is below if you are interested.
http://us.blastingnews.com/sports/2017/03/mlb-statcast-is-the-new-moneyball-001530613.html

2017 Season Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

Major Additions: Kendrys Morales, Joe Smith, J.P. Howell, Steve Pearce

Major Losses: Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Cecil, Michael Saunders, R.A. Dickey, Joaquin Benoit

Strengths: Offense, Rotation Starting Five

Weaknesses: Pitching depth

Potential Breakout Stars: Danny Barnes, Dalton Pompey, Rowdy Tellez, Lourdes Gourriel

Losing Edwin Encarnacion is no small deal, and the signing of Kendrys Morales doesn't do much more than soften the blow. With Michael Saunders gone and his rough offensive equivalent, Steve Pearce, replacing him (117 wRC+ for Saunders in 2016, 136 for Pearce but in a smaller sample), 2016's best offense in baseball has taken a step back. Jose Bautista (age 35), Troy Tulowitzki (32), and Russell Martin (34) are all a year older, and Justin Smoak (-0.1 fWAR in 2016) is questionable at first base. However, that's not to say this offense is something to worry about. Bautista and Tulowitzki are still great bats, Morales will pack a punch, and I still haven't gotten to my favorite hitter in the league, Josh Donaldson. The man has slashed .291/.387/.559 over his two seasons in Toronto, crushing 78 home runs, 63 doubles, and 7 triples while even swiping 13 bags in 14 attempts (21 in 22 attempts if you include his perfect 8 for 8 in 2014). He's one of the better defenders in baseball, but there are very few hitters who are more fun to watch than Josh Donaldson. Kevin Pillar will man center field, so don't expect any fly balls to drop in that area. They have three young hitters to keep an eye on: Dalton Pompey made his MLB debut back in 2014 at just 21 years old, and while he's only hit .222/.291/.385 since then, he's still just 24 and could still be a big part of the 2017 Blue Jays. Rowdy Tellez just slashed .297/.387/.530 at AA New Hampshire, and he could bring his big power to the majors this season. Lastly, Lourdes Gourriel is a big mystery, as he hasn't played a minor league game yet, but if the scouting reports hold true, he could sneak onto the major league roster at some point during the season and make a big impact. The starting rotation is dotted with big names throughout, starting with the pair of young guns, 24 year old Aaron Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and 25 year old Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). Veterans J.A. Happ (20-4, 3.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) have shown no signs of slowing down, and Francisco Liriano (8-13, 4.69 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) will look to bounce back after three strong seasons in Pittsburgh. However, if any of them get hurt or falter, there isn't much depth behind them. Mike Bolsinger was good in 2015 (6-6, 3.62 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), but not so much in 2016 (1-4, 6.83 ERA, 1.52 WHIP), and Mat Latos (7-3, 4.89 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) is one big wild card. Gavin Floyd is another starting option, but he hasn't started a major league game since 2014. A couple of AA arms, Glenn Sparkman and Conner Greene, could be last ditch options. In the bullpen, losing Brett Cecil is a big blow, and Joaquin Benoit will also not be returning, but the Jays did replace Cecil with J.P. Howell and Benoit with Joe Smith. Roberto Osuna (2.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) was great in the ninth inning last season, and Joe Biagini (3.06 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) was a pleasant surprise as a rookie. Biagini could also start, but he hasn't started a game above AA. However, the rest of the bullpen, probably including the unproven Biagini, is filled with question marks. Aaron Loup was great from 2012-2014, but struggled more in 2015 and 2016. Ryan Tepera and Bo Schultz have been good, but at 29 and 31 years old and with 52 and 51 major league games under their belts, respectively, they're far from sure things. Jason Grilli just turned 40, but there is one arm that really intrigues me. Danny Barnes was as dominant as you could be in the minors this season, putting up a 0.73 ERA and a 0.47 WHIP (!!) at AA and AAA, striking out 77 batters and walking just six (!) in 61.1 innings. Upon his call to the majors, the then-26 year old put up a respectable 3.95 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 12 appearances, striking out 14 and walking five in 13.2 innings. Watch him this season. Overall, this is a Blue Jays team that looks like it has taken a step back from last season, and while it addressed some needs with the additions of Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce, J.P. Howell, and Joe Smith, losing Edwin Encarnacion and Brett Cecil will be big enough that I think they will ultimately be kept out of the playoffs.

2017 Season Preview: New York Yankees

Major Additions: Aroldis Chapman, Matt Holliday, Chris Carter

Major Losses: Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi

Strengths: Young Arms, Bullpen

Weaknesses: Offensive Core, Offensive Stability

Potential Breakout Stars: The Whole Bullpen, Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Chad Green, Luis Cessa, Clint Frazier

The very first thing that jumps off the page with the Yankees is their plethora of young arms, especially in the bullpen. Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Tyler Clippard will form a very strong back of the bullpen, but it seems that all of their mid-level pitching prospects are ready to step up right now. Dietrich Enns (age 25), Johnny Barbato (24), Ben Heller (25), Jonathan Holder (23), and Chasen Shreve (26) all appear ready to make an immediate impact, and even if some falter, there is so much depth here that they can just call on the next guy. The rotation starts off great with Masahiro Tanaka, but there are a lot of question marks after that. Michael Pineda and C.C. Sabathia are talented but Pineda has never shown any consistency and Sabathia is getting up there in age. Luis Severino was excellent in 2015 (2.89 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), but struggled in 2016 (5.83 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), and while he has all the talent in the world, he is far from a proven commodity. What the lack in certainty, though, they make up for in depth. Chad Green was solid in his 2016 debut (4.73 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), and a breakout in 2017 would not be wholly surprising. There's swingman Adam Warren, youngster Brian Mitchell, and the very intriguing Luis Cessa (4.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). Cessa walked just 14 batters in 70.1 innings in 2016, and if he can find a way to miss more bats, he could do great things for the Bombers. The offense could go in any number of directions. They have the pieces, but most of them have question marks attached. There's the aging sluggers, Matt Holliday (age 37) and Chase Headley (32), the aging speedsters, Brett Gardner (33) and Jacoby Ellsbury (33), the unproven young bats, Gary Sanchez (24), Aaron Judge (24), and Greg Bird (24), the two "you get what you got's," Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius, and then there's Chris Carter. That's a lot of assertion and not a lot to back it up, so let's break it down. Castro and Gregorius are the only "sure things" in the Yankees lineup, meaning we more or less know what we're getting. He's typically been a one to three win player (according to Fangraphs) throughout his career, worth 1.1 fWAR last season. This year, it's a pretty safe bet that he'll be worth about 1-2 wins, meaning he'll be a slightly below average regular. Didi Gregorius' power breakout was for real last season, as Statcast batted ball data from Baseball Savant showed clear, across the board increases in average exit velocity, distance, and barrels (Statcast stat for the hardest hit balls) from 2015 to 2016, and he should be able to repeat in 2017. Now, four projected Yankees starting position players are 32 or older. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are both known for their speed, but they are likely to trend down in that department as they continue to age. Chase Headley and Matt Holliday are known more for their power, and while Headley may not see too much of a decline in his age 32 season, 37 year old Matt Holliday is far from a sure thing, both in production and simply staying on the field. He'll split time at DH with Chris Carter, who has as much raw power as anybody in baseball (except for Giancarlo Stanton) but who has shown a complete inability to actually hit the baseball. Carter will also split time at first base with Greg Bird, who slashed .261/.343/.529 in an excellent rookie season in 2015 but who missed all of 2016 after shoulder surgery. Gary Sanchez was downright unbelievable last season (.299/.376/.657), but it will be pretty much impossible for him to keep that up over a full season in 2017, especially after he registered just one hit in his final eight games in 2016 and hit just .222 in the month of September. If I were to try to predict the future, I'd wager that he'll have ups and downs but will ultimately put up a respectable season, something similar to or slightly better than the numbers that departing catcher Brian McCann put up. 6'7" Aaron Judge, known for his huge power and frequently compared to Giancarlo Stanton, has question marks as big as he is. He has always struck out in large quantities, and high strikeout levels in the minor leagues are often a warning sign of players who struggle to transition to the majors. Stanton, who represents the best case scenario, had similar strikeout numbers but was also ahead of Judge on the age curve, playing at levels younger than when Judge was there. Also, don't look now, but top prospects Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier could be up in the majors by the end of the season. Overall, this offense has question marks all over the place, but if all or most players reach their realistic best case scenarios, the Yankees will contend. They have too much depth on the mound, even though they lack in impact talent aside from Tanaka, Chapman, and Betances, to be a liability there. 

2017 Season Preview: Baltimore Orioles

Major Additions: Welington Castillo, Seth Smith

Major Losses: Matt Wieters, Yovani Gallardo, Pedro Alvarez, Steve Pearce

Strengths: Offense, Bullpen Back End

Weaknesses: Rotation, Baserunning

Potential Breakout Stars: Dylan Bundy, Jayson Aquino, Trey Mancini

The Orioles did not have much roster turnover, with the biggest difference between the 2016 and 2017 teams being behind the plate, where they essentially got back the same player they lost. Matt Wieters played eight years in Baltimore, and he was worth 1.7 fWAR in 2016. Instead, they'll go with Welington Castillo in 2017, who is a year younger and was also worth 1.7 fWAR in 2016. The offense was the calling card last year, and the offense will be the calling card this year. MLB home run leader Mark Trumbo is back, as are big power hitters Chris Davis and Adam Jones. AL MVP candidate Manny Machado will be at the center of everything, and Jonathan Schoop, Castillo, and fellow new addition Seth Smith all look to generate plenty of runs. The outfield looks to have an interesting dynamic this year; not having Mark Trumbo there (he will DH) is a huge boon for the defense, though there looks to be lots of platooning. Jones will man center field, but three of the other four outfielders are left handed hitters. Smith and Kim have well-documented struggles against left handed hitting, and Aneury Tavarez has never played in the major leagues. That leaves Joey Rickard as the only right handed hitter aside from Jones, which will be interesting as they go up against the Chris Sales and David Prices of that division. Trey Mancini is also an interesting player to watch, as he is blocked at first base by Davis and at DH by Mark Trumbo, as he had a very strong season with AAA Norfolk before slashing .357/.400/1.071 in a brief, five game MLB debut. Manager Buck Showalter will jump at the chance to use him whenever possible. On the mound, Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman are a great start, but the Orioles will need a lot to go right with the rest of the rotation. Dylan Bundy made progress last season (10-6, 4.02 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), but he'll need to take another big step forward as the number three starter this year. At 24 years old, he may be able to do just that. Wade Miley has seen his ERA rise each year since 2012 (3.33 to 5.37), and he'll need to reverse that trend to survive another year in a major league rotation. Lastly, Ubaldo Jimenez is among the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball, so he'll need to be "on" more than he's "off." If those three pitchers do what they need to do, this rotation may be able to avoid being a liability. In the back of the bullpen, Zach Britton is as good a relief ace as any in baseball, and Darren O'Day and Brad Brach add to that. Even Mychal Givens took a huge step forward. This is a team with a lot of holes, but teams find ways to patch up those holes, and if everything breaks right, the Orioles can be a force in 2017.

2017 Season Preview: Boston Red Sox

Major Additions: Chris Sale, Tyler Thornburg, Mitch Moreland

Major Losses: David Ortiz, Koji Uehara, Clay Buchholz, Brad Ziegler, Travis Shaw, Yoan Moncada, Junichi Tazawa

Strengths: Rotation, Offensive Core

Weaknesses: Bullpen depth

Potential Breakout Stars: Andrew Benintendi, Blake Swihart

Despite some significant personnel losses, the post-Big Papi Boston Red Sox look poised to make a run for not only the American League East crown, but the pennant and even the World Series. The addition of Chris Sale is huge for the pitching staff, giving them three of the best pitchers in the American League in Sale, David Price, and 2016 AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello. Behind the big three, Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz round out arguably the best rotation in baseball. Even in the case of injury, Eduardo Rodriguez is a proven commodity. Though the bullpen took a hit with the losses of Koji Uehara (Cubs), Brad Ziegler, and Junichi Tazawa (both Marlins), though new addition Tyler Thornburg will help Craig Kimbrel at the end of games, and the speedy return of Carson Smith will be eagerly awaited. David Ortiz may be gone from the middle of the Red Sox offense, but the team looks to have as balanced lineup as any in the American League. It all starts with early MVP candidate Mookie Betts, coming off a season where he led the MLB in total bases. Xander Bogaerts added power to his game last season, tripling his home run output from seven to 21 while even bumping up his on-base percentage from .355 to .356. Jackie Bradley finally had the breakout everyone was waiting for, and having Pablo Sandoval back and healthy is huge no matter what the size of his contract is. Other established stars include Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez, but perhaps the biggest story to follow will be that of Andrew Benintendi, regarded by most publications as the top prospect in baseball. The 22 year old may have only been drafted in 2015, but he reached the bigs in 2016 and still put up a .295/.359/.476 slash line. Steamer projects him to slash .282/.338/.438 with ten home runs over a full season in 2016, while ZiPS has him at .278/.341/.445 with 13 home runs. This is a guy who could sit at the top of the Red Sox lineup for years to come, and 2017 could be the first year where he makes a real difference. Overall, this is a very strong team, one who could realistically end up with the AL Cy Young Award winner (Sale, Price, or Porcello), the AL MVP (Betts), and the AL Rookie of the Year (Benintendi).