Down a second round pick after signing Josh Hader in the offseason, the Astros were left with the smallest bonus pool of any team and didn't get to make too much of a splash here. Instead, they played the draft pretty straight up and went off the beaten path a little bit, trusting their internal evaluations and drafting quite a few players a bit higher than they might have expected to go. A highlight for local fans will be the drafting of two local players with their first three picks in Sam Houston State catcher Walker Janek (Portland, TX) and Rice righty Parker Smith (Bellaire, TX).
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.
1-28: C Walker Janek, Sam Houston State {video}
Slot value: $3.13 million. Signing bonus: likely to be around slot value.
My rank: #30. MLB Pipeline: #24. Baseball America: #20.
The Astros kicked it off with a South Texas native here, grabbing Walker Janek out of Sam Houston State. Janek hails from Portland, Texas, a small but rapidly growing town across the bay from Corpus Christi. He was an immediate contributor upon reaching Huntsville, starting 51 games as a true freshman in 2022 and hitting over .300 in the process, then added some impact in 2023. Entering the spring more of a second round prospect, he put up a massive junior season in 2024 that earned him the Buster Posey Award for the best catcher in college baseball, becoming the first mid-major catcher to do so since Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley in 2017. Janek doesn't have a carrying tool, but it's an extremely well-rounded profile that will serve Houston well in the long run. A very aggressive hitter for most of his career, he reined in the approach a little bit in 2024 and dropped his chase rate below 25%, helping ease concerns about his bat transitioning to pro pitching. The bat to ball skills are average as well, so the lower chase rate really does help the hit tool profile better overall. Meanwhile, he's got above average power that he has tapped more and more often in games as the more selective approach has unlocked better opportunities for him to use it, all coming naturally from a quick, compact right handed swing. Overall, he profiles for perhaps 15-20 home runs per season with .260-ish batting averages, which is excellent production for a catcher. Janek will indeed stick behind the plate as an above average defender with improving glovework, while his plus arm strength makes up for a bit of a slower release and he caught more than half of would-be base stealers in 2024. We've had guys suit up for Houston recently from places like Houston (Corey Julks, Robbie Grossman), San Antonio (Forrest Whitley), eastern Louisiana (Wade Miley, Will Harris), and even Del Rio (Jack Mayfield) and Uvalde (Brooks Raley), but off the top of my head it appears Janek will be the first from Corpus in a long time.
3-101: RHP Ryan Forcucci, UC San Diego {video}
Slot value: $724,800. Signing bonus: difficult to project.
My rank: #67. MLB Pipeline: #86. Baseball Reference: #88.
Houston didn't have a second round pick, but I think they got a second round talent in Ryan Forcucci. Forcucci proved himself to be one of the more intriguing arms on the West Coast over his first two seasons in San Diego, then got off to a red hot start in 2024 to push himself closer to first round consideration. Unfortunately, he went down with an undisclosed injury after five starts and wound up having Tommy John surgery in June, so he likely won't be on the mound until late in the 2025 season at the soonest. That said, it's a legitimate arm talent. Forcucci sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with his fastball, which plays up with big time riding life to miss bats. He gets late bite on his above average slider to give him a legitimate out pitch, while his curveball and changeup are coming along. The 6'3" righty moves extremely well on the mound, extending well towards the plate and putting a flatter approach angle on the ball to make his pitches play up. His athleticism also enables him to pound the strike zone with above average command, together making for a pretty complete package on the mound sans the injury. It's a modern arm built for the modern game that could quickly ascend to the middle of the Houston rotation once he's healthy.
4-131: RHP Parker Smith, Rice {video}
Slot value: $541,100. Signing bonus: likely to be a bit below slot value.
My rank: #212. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #149.
Three picks, two local guys. Parker Smith was born and raised in Harris County, attending Bellaire High School just fifteen minutes southwest of Minute Maid Park and pitching three years at Rice University, itself just four miles southwest of the stadium. It's safe to say he's a Houston lifer, and it looks like that won't be changing any time soon. Smith has been a member of the Rice rotation for all three seasons, making forty starts and tossing 220.1 innings in his time with the Owls to solid results. The stuff isn't overwhelming, but he gets the job done. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with average movement, while he has strong feel for an average slider and an above average changeup. Smith utilizes a a bit of a herky jerky delivery and a low three quarters slot that don't look like they belong on a starting pitching prospect, but he repeats them well and pounds the strike zone with above average command. Given all of that plus his size, the 6'4" righty looks like a safe bet back-end starter. For me, the primary wart on his profile comes from the fact that he didn't miss many bats, with his 19.7% strikeout rate making him one of just four college pitchers on my draft list (out of 54 total) with a sub-20% strikeout rate. The other three – Rafe Schlesinger (19.7%), Travis Smith (18.8%), and Fran Oschell (18.2%) – all pitched in the ACC or SEC, whereas Smith faced somewhat lesser competition in the American Athletic Conference and still couldn't miss many bats. The pieces are there for Smith, so the Astros may look to alter some patterns with his pitch usage and location to get the most out of their hometown kid.
5-163: RHP Cole Hertzler, Liberty {video}
Slot value: $396,200. Signing bonus: $393,700 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #240. Baseball America: #475.
Cole Hertzler was high school teammates and classmates with Blue Jays first round pick Trey Yesavage, then headed off to Liberty where he's taken a bit of a winding road. Initially a position player, he didn't play much as a freshman then found a role as a two-way player in 2023, working out of the bullpen, before jumping in as a full-time starting pitcher in 2024. He's a big, burly right hander at 6'4", 235 pounds, coming in with a low 90's fastball that gets up to 96 and leads a four pitch arsenal. His short, hard slider has some late bite, while his deeper curveball gives him a distinct second breaking ball and his hard, diving changeup may actually be his best pitch at the end of the day. The Pennsylvania native works from an over the top slot to put steep angle on his pitches, attacking the strike zone with average command. He doesn't have a long history of starting, but he's durable and doesn't throw with too much effort. The Astros will look at the lack of experience on the mound as a positive, finding an arm with less mileage and one which could continue to improve with additional development.
7-223: OF Joseph Sullivan, South Alabama {video}
Slot value: $242,400. Signing bonus: likely to be around slot value, if a bit below.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #277.
South Alabama has produced some serious outfield talent over the years, from Luis Gonzalez and Juan Pierre in the past to 2018 tenth overall pick Travis Swaggerty, 2021 second rounder Ethan Wilson and 10th rounder (and fellow Astro) Michael Sandle, and now a pair of 2024 seventh rounders in Will Turner and Joseph Sullivan. He's a left handed hitter with a compact stroke and pull oriented approach that helps him elevate the ball effectively, making the most of his above average raw power when he squares the ball up. Meanwhile, Sullivan has an excellent eye at the plate and controls the strike zone extremely well, though his pure bat to ball skills are fringy and he gets into trouble in deep counts. Meanwhile, he's a plus runner that has stolen 45 bases in his three years in Mobile, and while Turner's presence forced him to left field for the Jaguars, he has a shot to play center field in pro ball. The Birmingham-area native showed extremely well in the MLB Draft League in 2023 (.288/.419/.673, 4 HR) and comes with more upside than you'd expect from an older junior who turned 22 before the draft. With his power, patience, and speed, the Astros could get creative with his development and see what comes out of it. He has the upside of ap power hitting platoon outfielder who could potentially see some every day action.
19-583: RHP Twine Palmer, Connors State JC [OK] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($47,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Chalk Twine Palmer up there as one of the greatest baseball names in the history of this beautiful sport. The second Astros draftee out of the Oklahoma JuCo scene this year, Palmer, a member of Choctaw Nation, shined at Connors State as a true freshman. The fastball presently sits around 90 with running action, while he shows good feel for his breaking ball and gets nice fade on his changeup. It's a smooth delivery that enables him to pound the strike zone, while his rangy 6'5" frame gives the Astros incoming physicality to dream on. It's a really nice sleeper profile from way off the beaten path. Connors State did lean heavily on their ace late in the season, evidenced by a complete game effort against Seminole State (ironically against Astros sixth rounder Caden Powell) in which he allowed eleven runs on thirteen hits and faced 44 batters as well as 8.2 innings of work against Northeastern Oklahoma A&M where he allowed six runs on nine hits and faced 38 batters. Neither listed a pitch count, but I have to imagine he must have thrown close to 150 in the first and comfortably over 120 in the second. He's still just 19 years old and has plenty of time to develop.
20-613: OF Ky McGary, Sandra Day O'Connor HS [AZ] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: will be very expensive if he signs.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #212. Baseball Reference: #295.
Here in the 20th round, Ky McGary seems unlikely to sign but Houston has no obvious overslot candidates elsewhere, so you never know. If Ryan Forcucci doesn't go too far over his $724,800 slot value in the third round, I think the Astros may be able to pull McGary away from his Arizona State commitment. McGary has somewhat of a similar profile to seventh rounder Joseph Sullivan, albeit right handed and less polished. Wiry and projectable at 6'1", he unleashes a potent right handed swing with impressive bat speed, albeit a bit stiff at times. His bat to ball ability has been inconsistent and many teams were scared off by the swing and miss in his profile, so Houston is potentially buying into the power and supplemental tools. The Phoenix-area product is a strong athlete and a plus runner with a chance to stick in center field if he can polish up the glove and footwork, which looked raw at times. He's also worked out at shortstop, but the actions are raw there as well. McGary is on the older side for a prep, turning 19 in August, but if Houston can get him to put pen to paper rather than go to school, they have a lot of puzzle pieces to work with.
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