Saturday, July 20, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Full list of draftees

The Diamondbacks did not pick until #29 this year, but Corbin Carroll's Rookie of the Year Award and an extra CBA pick meant they got to pick at #29, #31, and #35, giving them the eleventh largest bonus pool in the league. That allowed Arizona to target several expensive preps across all three days of the draft, including four on day three of which they may be able to sign one or two. Athleticism and upside were a constant theme in this class, which they traded for the safety of more polished players. I personally love this class and I'm be very excited to see what comes out of it.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-29: OF Slade Caldwell, Valley View HS [AR] {video}
Slot value: $3.05 million. Signing bonus: likely to be well above slot value.
My rank: #17. MLB Pipeline: #27. Baseball America: #19.
The Diamondbacks started this draft with a bang, floating arguably the #3 prep prospect in the country all the way down to the #29 pick with what is certain to be a massive bonus to divert him away from an Ole Miss commitment. Slade Caldwell is a unique prospect, and not just because he comes from off the beaten path a little bit in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Generously listed at 5'9", he may be an inch or two shorter than that but he is for real. Caldwell has a lightning quick bat with some of the fastest hands in the class, quickly deploying his left handed swing for hard contact all over the zone. Lauded as one of the better pure hitters in the class, he controls the strike zone very well and rarely misses his pitch, giving him the potential for a plus hit tool when all is said and done. The power is fringy, but he gets the bat up to top speed so quickly that he still packs a lot more juice than you'd expect for a kid his size and should flirt with double digit home run totals annually. Beyond that, he's a plus runner that will stick in center field long term where his fringy arm isn't an issue. It's easy to make the comparison to fellow DBack outfielder Corbin Carroll, while it similarly makes sense to do so with 2022 Mets first rounder Jett Williams. Given the career arcs of those two, I think that's a very favorable projection for Caldwell, who could hit atop the Arizona batting order for years to come while flirting with .400 on-base percentages and stealing 20-30+ bags a year. I love the pick.

PPI-31: OF Ryan Waldschmidt, Kentucky {video}
Slot value: $2.90 million. Signing bonus: likely to be around slot value.
My rank: #19. MLB Pipeline: #23. Baseball Reference: #33.
Speaking of Corbin Carroll, his winning Rookie of the Year last year gave the Diamondbacks an extra pick after the first round and they used it to grab another really good one. Ryan Waldschmidt was a late riser up boards, having begun his career at Charleston Southern in 2022 before transferring to Kentucky. After an unremarkable sophomore season in Lexington, he broke out in 2024 as one of the SEC's most dynamic players. He's a metric darling, grading out well in virtually every measurable. He uses a compact right handed swing to blast balls around the park with sneaky plus power, showing batted ball data with the production to match. Not only that, but he's a very disciplined hitter who rarely chases and does plenty of damage within the zone, giving him an above average hit tool as well. If there's one wart on the offensive profile, it's that he doesn't do much damage when he does chase, so he'll have to continue to control the strike zone in pro ball. Waldschmidt is also an above average runner who may stick in center field, though given he dropped out of the first round this year, more teams may see him as a left fielder where his below average arm won't be as much of an issue. The offensive bar is higher in left field, but I'm confident the Tampa-area native can clear it and become a dynamic contributor in a multitude of ways.

CBA-35: SS JD Dix, Whitefish Bay HS [WI] {video}
Slot value: $2.63 million. Signing bonus: difficult to predict.
My rank: #72. MLB Pipeline: #75. Baseball America: #62.
JD Dix was always going to be difficult to place on draft boards, and as it turns out he went about a round earlier than most expected. Scouts have a longer history with him, but he battled a shoulder injury over the summer that sapped his strength and wound up having labrum surgery. He didn't face the toughest competition up in the Milwaukee area and opinions varied wildly on him. For that reason, there are some similarities to Boston's Nick Yorke pick in 2020, though Yorke did face better competition in the San Francisco Bay Area while Dix is a better defender. Dix has impressive strength in his 6'2" frame and can really whip the bat through the zone, with strong wrists that can adjust and get the barrel to balls all over the zone with authority. A very advanced hitter for his age, he's decidedly hit over power at this point, but I wouldn't put it past him to develop average or better power in games despite not having unlocked it quite yet. He's also a sound defender who has shown well at shortstop, though the shoulder injury will call his arm strength into question. If he has to move over to second base, he still should have the bat to profile as a high on-base type with 10-20 home run power, and if he sticks there you suddenly have a steal of a draft pick. Dix runs well and should be a factor on the bases as well. At full strength, this is an exceptionally well-rounded profile. It's difficult to ascertain just how large of a bonus it will take to keep him from a Wake Forest commitment, as he was drafted much earlier than some expected but may still require a hefty sum to stay out of Winston-Salem.

2-64: C Ivan Luciano, El Shaddai Christian HS [PR] {video}
Slot value: $1.32 million. Signing bonus: likely to be below slot value.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #220. unranked.
This pick was a surprise to many, as Ivan Luciano did not rank on the Baseball America 500 and was indeed off the radar for many prospect evaluators, including myself. The Diamondbacks will likely get him for well below slot value, looking to pull him away from a Miami of Ohio commitment in a range at least a few rounds earlier than he was expected to go. Luciano is an up arrow guy who showed well at the MLB Draft Combine right there at Chase Field, where Arizona decision makers no doubt got a good look at him. Compact and strong at 5'10", he's built like a catcher and looks the part. His defense has steadily crept forward, as he has learned to more effectively deploy his above average arm and his throws have gotten more accurate. Having worked with Yadier Molina, he's also moving better back there and now looks like he'll stick as a catcher long term, with the potential to even become an above average defender back there on his current trajectory. Similarly, the bat has taken strides, as his swing gets more fluid and powerful. It's overall an average all-around offensive profile befitting of a backup catcher at this point. Adding to intrigue is his age, as Luciano was tied for the second youngest player taken in the entire draft (alongside New York prep pitcher/Brewers 18th rounder Tyler Renz and behind fellow Puerto Rican catcher/Reds' tenth rounder Yanuel Casiano), meaning he won't turn 18 until the offseason. That gives him upwards of a year's extra time to develop physically and hone his craft. The Diamondbacks are buying into that youth as well as the steady, continual improvements he has displayed in all aspects of his game.

3-102: RHP Daniel Eagen, Presbyterian {video}
Slot value: $717,700. Signing bonus: likely to be around slot value.
My rank: #81. MLB Pipeline: #83. Baseball America: #107.
Presbyterian College in South Carolina is the smallest Division I school in the country with an enrollment of about 1200 students. Prior to 2024, they had not had a player drafted since Bud Jeter (elite baseball name) was a 25th round pick by the Diamondbacks way back in 2013, and in finding himself here in the third round, Daniel Eagen becomes the highest drafted player in school history. Eagen, whose high school (Fuquay Varina HS south of Raleigh) was nearly twice the size of his college, pitched to an 8.44 ERA over his first two seasons before taking off in 2024 and earning Big South Pitcher of the Year honors. Long and lanky at 6'4", he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 96, coming in with huge riding life from a very high slot. His deep, sharp curveball looks like a plus pitch, while his shorter slider has taken a step forward as well. His changeup remains behind the rest of the arsenal. Previously wild and hittable, the North Carolina native has sharpened his command in 2024 with an uptempo yet simple delivery. He's a solid athlete that could unlock additional upside as he jumps into a pro development program and looks like a potential mid-rotation starter.

4-132: SS Tytus Cissell, Francis Howell HS [MO] {video}
Slot value: $535,800. Signing bonus: likely to be above slot value.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #234. Baseball America: #471.
Every year, I have to put the laptop down and stop my research somewhere, leaving names on the table. This year, Tytus Cissell was on that list of players I would have likely added to my board if I had a little more time, and he's a big gamble for the Diamondbacks who may also provide a huge payoff. Most scouts would agree that he is far from proven against upper tier pitching, having not been seen much on the summer showcase circuit and facing average pitching in the St. Louis area. And though he stands 6'2", he's not quite physically developed yet with a skinnier frame. That said, there is plenty of upside. Cissell is a switch hitter that grades out very well in athletic testing, with fast hands, quick feet, and springy actions in all athletic contexts that could make him a star in any sport. There's a bit more impact from the left side of the plate, and as he gets stronger and fills out that frame, he could grow into average or better power in time. He's also a plus runner that has shown well at shortstop, where he could stick with additional refinement. Cissell is coming off a strong spring as well where everything seemed to be coming together. Committed to Missouri, he'll likely require a hefty bonus from the Diamondbacks to leave the Show Me State and head to the desert, but the Diamondbacks are buying into the athleticism, projection, and trajectory while accepting the risk that comes with his lack of testing against higher level arms.

5-164: RHP Connor Foley, Indiana {video}
Slot value: $392,300. Signing bonus: likely to be a bit above slot value.
My rank: #121. MLB Pipeline: #106. Baseball America: #109.
In Connor Foley, the Diamondbacks are getting a high octane, high upside arm that needs some refinement. Hailing from Jasper, the same small town in southern Indiana that produced Scott Rolen and later whose Dubois County neighbor, Huntingburg, gave us top White Sox prospect Colson Montgomery, Foley has spent the past two seasons blowing away Big Ten hitters at Indiana. He has huge arm strength that enables him to sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and reach back for as much as 99, with big riding life making it a potential plus-plus pitch down the line. He also shows a power slider that could overwhelm Big Ten hitters with its velocity, though it's movement profile isn't as impressive and he'll need to refine the pitch more to miss pro bats. Foley stands out for an advanced changeup that he'll use regularly, showing hard late fade to miss bats at an extremely high clip. There's also a show me curveball, but it's a fourth pitch. The 6'5" righty brings impressive size to the table but struggles with command, and that combined with the lack of feel for spin may push him to the bullpen in the long run. That said, he's an excellent athlete who could take another step forward under the Diamondbacks' tutelage and just turned 21 the day before he was drafted, making him very young for a college draftee.

11-344: OF Bo Walker, Starrs Mill HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: will be well above slot value if he signs.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #384.
Almost everybody drafted in the top ten rounds will sign, but rounds 11-20 are where it gets iffy, especially for high schoolers. Bo Walker has a Georgia Tech commitment to contend with, though given the Diamondbacks' massive bonus pool and the fact that they grabbed him with their very first pick of day three, there's reason to believe they have a shot to land him. Walker, like many players taken before him, is an excellent athlete in need of refinement. He's extremely projectable at 6'3" with plenty of room to add good weight. Walker gets great separation in his right handed swing and could grow into serious power, though at this point he'll have to work to get to it beyond getting stronger. It's a raw setup and swing, as he employs a wide base and the swing can get disconnected at times with below average barrel accuracy. As the Diamondbacks (or Yellow Jackets) work to fix that, the upside is tremendous given the way he moves in the box. The Atlanta-area native is also a plus runner with a chance to stick in center field, where his average arm will fit.

20-614: C Hunter Carns, First Coast HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: will be well above slot value if he signs.
My rank: #106. MLB Pipeline: #152. Baseball America: #69.
Based on draft position alone, Bo Walker seems like he'd be more likely to sign than Hunter Carns, and we also have two more high schoolers in eighteenth rounder Jackson Hotchkiss (Washington commit) and nineteenth rounder Tyler Bayer (Kennesaw State) to contend with. That said, if the Diamondbacks move money around effectively want to make it happen, they could get a huge talent in Carns, who will likely demand seven figures to skip out on a Florida State commitment. Carns, like many in this draft class, is a premium athlete with tremendous upside. He's much more athletic than most catchers and could remind scouts of Harry Ford and Caleb Lomavita in that sense, though the offensive profile is a little different. Already packing a ton of strength into his 6' frame, he shows natural above average power in games with a compact right handed swing. His bat to ball is a bit behind and he can get very streaky in the box, though there were stretches where he torched opposing pitching and looked like a day one draft pick. Unlike most catchers, he's a plus runner that moves extremely well all over the diamond, and that agility plus his strong arm gives him plenty of ceiling behind the plate. Similarly to his offense, he'll need to refine his actions to get there and currently grades out average defensively. Perhaps the biggest drawback in his profile is his age, as he turned 19 back in April and therefore was a full year older than many of his class of 2024 contemporaries.

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