Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Evan Longoria Shipped to San Francisco for Denard Span, Prospects

Giants Get: Evan Longoria (Age 32): 20 HR, .261/.313/.424, 6 SB, 96 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR
$14.5 million
Rays Get: Denard Span (Age 33): 12 HR, .272/.329/.427, 12 SB, 102 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR
Christian Arroyo (Age 22): 3 HR, .192/.244/.304, 1 SB, 44 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR
Matt Krook (Age 23): 4-9, 5.12 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 105/66 K/BB, 91.1 IP at High Class A
Stephen Woods (Age 22): 6-7, 2.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 113/64 K/BB, 110 IP at Class A

I don't like the idea of the Giants trading for Evan Longoria. He is a good player, but the Giants are unlikely to contend in 2017 and beyond, as their roster has little long-term depth due to a farm system that only got weaker in dealing three prospects. He has five years and $88 million left on his contract (with the Rays paying $14.5 million), and while that's about market value for a good bat and a good glove together, they gave up a major leaguer and three good prospects (though the Rays are sending money with him). Denard Span is owed $15 million for 2018 (assuming the Rays buy out his contract for 2019), so that offsets some, but it is still not a good trade for a Giants team that should be rebuilding, not stretching out an already closed window of contention. All of that said, Longoria patches up a big hole in the Giants roster, sliding into a solid infield that includes Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Brandon Crawford as well. The outfield is less fearsome (Hunter Pence, Jarrett Parker, Gorkys Hernandez, Mac Williamson), but at least the infield is patched up. Longoria is coming off a down offensive year, one where he slashed .261/.313/.424 with 20 home runs over 156 games, good for a 96 wRC+, but his good defense helped bring his fWAR up to 2.5. It was still by far the worst season of his career, the first in which his wRC+ dipped below league average (100) and also the first full season in which he failed to put up at least 3.3 fWAR. He is coming off an excellent 2016 (36 HR, .273/.318/.521, 123 wRC+, 4.5 fWAR), and there is definitely still sock in the bat, but he's on the wrong side of 30 and it would make sense that he would trend downwards. For his career, the California native and former Long Beach State Dirtbag has 261 home runs, a .270/.341/.483 slash line, and 49.6 fWAR over 1435 games.

Going back to the Rays, mainly for salary relief, is Denard Span, who grew up 15 minutes from downtown Tampa. Span, who gets on base at a good clip and still has good speed at 33 years old, has seen his power spike in since coming to San Francisco. After never hitting more than eight home runs in a season from 2008-2015, Span cracked eleven and twelve home runs in 2016 and 2017, and his .155 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) in 2017 was far and away a career high. In fact, overall, he was more productive at the plate in 2017 (102 wRC+) than Longoria (96 wRC+). That's not to say he's a better hitter in the long run, but he's definitely a productive hitter. For his career, Span has 60 home runs, a .283/.348/.396 slash line, 176 stolen bases, and 26.5 fWAR over 1222 games. 22 year old shortstop Christian Arroyo is the biggest piece moving, though, and he's also a Tampa-area native to boot. Arroyo is an advanced hitter with excellent bat to ball skills, one who is tough to strike out and who can have some sneaky power when he gets into one. In 2017, he made a mockery of AAA pitching in the small sample of 25 games, slashing .396/.461/.604 with four home runs, seven doubles, and a pair of stolen bases, striking out twelve times to six walks. He also spent 34 games in the big leagues with the Giants, slashing .192/.244/.304 with three home runs, five doubles, and one stolen base. He struck out 32 times and walked eight times, and while he wasn't exactly a prized contributor in the lineup, he showed competence and should be ready for a full season in the majors in 2018 once he works his way back from the broken hand that ended his season in August. He has a high floor as a utility man and a relatively high ceiling as an everyday shortstop and a high-OBP leadoff man. Matt Krook, a San Francisco native, is an interesting pitching prospect. Krook was a highly regarded prospect coming out of high school and dominated the Pac-12 as a freshman at Oregon (1.79 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 60 strikeouts in 45.1 innings), but blew out his elbow, missed 2015, and couldn't throw a strike as a redshirt-sophomore for the Ducks in 2016 (5.03 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 49 walks in 53.2 innings). The Giants liked his raw stuff, which includes a running low to mid 90's fastball and an excellent power curveball, and took him in the fourth round. After walking 35 in 40.2 innings in his pro debut last year, he walked another 66 in 91.1 innings in 2017, making progress but not much. On the bright side, in his final five games, he walked just one batter in 10.2 innings while striking out 17 and allowing just one run. If he really turned a corner in those final games, he could be a mid-rotation starter for the Rays. If not, he still has a good chance at being a power reliever. Lastly, 22 year old Stephen Woods was drafted in the eighth round out of SUNY Albany in 2016, and the Giants have done a great job cleaning him up thus far. Like Krook, he struggles with command, but his great stuff led to a 2.95 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 110 innings in 23 starts at Class A Augusta in 2017. The 64 walks were a bit high, but he comes in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a hard cutter-slider, and a good curveball, so he could very well become a back-end starter if he doesn't end up in the bullpen.

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