Tyler Chatwood: 8-15, 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 120/77 K/BB, 147.2 IP
Three years, $38 million
Having lost Jake Arrieta and John Lackey to free agency, the Cubs added Tyler Chatwood on a three year deal worth $38 million. This could be huge for both Chatwood and the Cubs, as he has sneakily been very good despite many factors working against him. One such factor was his home park, Coors Field, and he posted a 4.69 ERA because of it. However, that ERA comes out to a 94 ERA- (6% better than league average) when adjusted for park effects, and he was far better on the road than at home, even by Rockies standards. At home, he was 3-8 with a 6.01 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP, while on the road he went 5-7 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. These splits were even more pronounced in 2016, when his 3.87 overall ERA was split between 6.12 at home and 1.69 on the road. In fact, that 1.69 road ERA in 2016 was the best among all MLB starters by a long shot, well ahead of second place Rich Hill (1.89) and third place Steven Wright (2.09). Point is, don't just look at Chatwood's ERA and thing the Cubs are overpaying for a #4 or #5 starter. Pitching full time away from Coors Field, Chatwood is a #3 starter with a chance to be even better, and he cost the Cubs less than $40 million. The Cubs could go forward with their current rotation (which also includes Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Eddie Butler), but Butler carries a bit of risk and a contending team such as the Cubs may want to go out and find someone to compete with him. If Butler falters, prospect Jen-Ho Tseng is the most obvious option, though fellow prospects Thomas Hatch, Adbert Alzolay, Duane Underwood, and Alec Mills could be ready by mid-season. Chatwood is just about to turn 28, making him one of the youngest free agents available and limiting risk at the back end of his contract. For his career, the SoCal native is 40-46 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 130 games (113 starts), but note the 5.25 home ERA and the 3.31 road ERA.
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