Ten Prospects Who Improved Their Stock in 2018

These 10 prospects, in no particular order, have improved their stock tremendously in 2018. Some of them might have already been well-regarded and others may have popped out of nowhere, but if you enjoy getting an early look at the future of the game, these are ten names you should absolutely familiarize yourself with.

**Juan Soto, despite beginning the season as a prospect, will not be included on this list because he has exceeded rookie limits at the major league level. Even though he came into the season as arguably the Nationals' second best prospect behind Victor Robles, with 14 home runs and a .303/.421/.542 slash line as a 19 year old, he has exceeded even the wildest of expectations.

3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays, Age 19)
18 HR, .400/.454/.681, 3 SB, 32/30 K/BB, 208 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 3 at GCL, 1 at High A, 61 at AA, 12 at AAA
Vladimir Guerrero's son entered the season already considered one of the top prospects in baseball, coming off a 2017 where he slashed .323/.425/.485 with 13 home runs and an excellent 62/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin, playing the entire season at 18 years old. However, in 2018, he has gone from potential superstar to likely superstar, which is a huge jump. In 77 games between AA New Hampshire, AAA Buffalo, and rehab work, his slash line is an incredible .400/.454/.681, as he has clobbered 18 home runs and struck out 32 times to 30 walks. The kid is nearly half a year younger than Juan Soto and is absolutely obliterating the high minors, including an unfathomable .395/.489/.763 line, four home runs (all in consecutive games), and a tremendous 4/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games since his promotion to AAA. His defense is coming along, and while he's not Nolan Arenado at third base, he has worked hard to be serviceable there and that work ethic spreads to the rest of his game. Even if you're just a casual fan, you should learn his name; he has the potential to be every bit as good as his Hall of Fame dad. Junior has tremendous power, tremendous plate discipline, and the work ethic to get the most out of it. I can see him hitting 30+ home runs per season with an on-base percentage above .400.

SS Wander Franco (Rays, Age 17)
8 HR, .367/.423/.606, 4 SB, 14/18 K/BB, 164 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 45 in rookie level Appalachian League
If you have heard the name before, you might be thinking of his brother, Wander Franco, a prospect in the Giants organization. Or his other brother, Wander Franco, also a prospect in the Giants organization. His dad is also named Wander Franco. It's a little weird. Anyways, now that that's out of the way, this Wander Franco was already well regarded before the season, signing for a $3.85 million bonus (about what a mid-first round pick would sign for) out of the Dominican Republic and rating as the top prospect in the international class. However, his minor league debut has been one of the best in history for a 17 year old, as he started off in the rookie level Appalachian League (two levels higher than where most kids his age begin their careers), and he is absolutely crushing it. Through 45 games in a league where you typically see 21 year old college players beginning their careers, Franco is slashing .367/.423/.606 with eight home runs and more walks (18) than strikeouts (14) despite being born in the year 2001 (feel old yet?). The combination of power and average is great, but what really stands out to me is the plate discipline. A 9% walk rate isn't particularly high, but his 7% strikeout rate is minuscule for any player, especially for a literal kid playing with people quite a few years older than him while also hitting for power. He plays shortstop right now and while he may move off the position, he also may stay there, which would give him the potential to be both an impact bat and an impact glove at the same time. Obviously, he's a long way off, but you can't start your career any better than this.

LHP Jesus Luzardo (A's, Age 20)
10-4, 2.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 122/25 K/BB, 101.2 IP
Game Breakdown: 3 starts in High A, 16 in AA, 2 in AAA
Luzardo was a well regarded high school arm coming out of Stoneman Douglas High School in 2016, and upon returning from Tommy John surgery in mid 2017, he looked great over 43.1 innings, going 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio. Those numbers are all great, but they were all in the low minors and he had plenty to prove in 2018. Well, he started at High A Stockton and posted a 1.23 ERA and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over three starts, quickly earning a promotion to AA Midland. There, he was excellent in 16 starts, going 7-3 with a 2.29 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 86/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings, earning another promotion, this one to AAA Nashville at just 20 years old. He has made two starts there, striking out eleven and walking only two over 8.1 innings but also allowing four runs. Over the course of the season, he has not only proven he is healthy by throwing 101.2 innings, but also that his stuff can play up against upper level minor leaguers right now, and the major leagues are just around the corner.

RHP Chris Paddack (Padres, Age 22)
7-2, 1.91 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 114/7 K/BB, 85 IP
Game Breakdown: 10 starts in High A, 6 in AA
The emergence of Paddack, in my opinion, is enough to tip the scale from the Braves to the Padres for the best farm system in baseball. Paddack was off to a fantastic start at Class A in 2016, posting a 0.85 ERA over nine starts, but he went down with Tommy John and not only missed the rest of the season, but all of 2017 as well. Fully healthy for 2018, the Padres started off the 22 year old at High A Lake Elsinore in the notoriously hitter-friendly California League, but he was unfazed by the environment; In ten starts, he went 4-1 with a 2.24 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a straight up ridiculous 83/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 52.1 innings. Promoted to AA San Antonio, in July, he has been just as good, if not better, through six starts; 3-1, 1.38 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 31/3 K/BB in 32.2 innings. The strikeout rate dropped a little from the ridiculous 40.9% rate he had in High A to a more reasonable 27% in AA, while the walk rate stayed virtually the same (2% up to 2.6%). Despite the high strikeout rate, the stuff is more good than great, and he really makes his living by locating it around the zone. It won't cause him to rack up the strikeouts in the majors, but it's enough to keep minor league hitters swinging through pitches and it will help him be a fine mid rotation or back-end starter in the majors. Really, the biggest thing about this season was supposed to be about proving he was healthy, but he has done much more than that. Through his minor league career, he is now 13-5 with a 1.72 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and a 224/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 172.2 innings.

RHP Justin Dunn (Mets, Age 22)
7-7, 2.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 128/39 K/BB, 114 IP
Game Breakdown: 9 starts in High A, 11 in AA
Dunn was taken 19th overall out of Boston College in 2016 on the heels of a breakout junior year, and although he continued that success into a strong pro debut in the New York-Penn League that year (1.50 ERA, 35/10 K/BB), he struggled big time in his promotion to High A Port St. Lucie in 2017. Over 20 games (16 starts) in his first full pro season, Dunn went 5-6 with a 5.00 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 75/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings, even seeing his season end early due to shoulder fatigue in August. The most troubling thing about the season was his strikeout rate; inconsistency in his secondary pitches led to an uncharacteristically low 17.3% strikeout rate, which isn't good for a fireballing first rounder. He began 2018 back in High A, but the results were different; in nine starts, he went 2-3 with a 2.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 45.2 innings, bumping that strikeout rate up to 25.9% and watching his walk rate fall from 11.1% to 7.6%. Upon his promotion to AA Binghamton, it was more of the same, as he went 5-4 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while racking up 77 strikeouts against 24 walks in 68.1 innings (27.4% to 8.5%). The increased consistency in his stuff his huge; while it obviously helped him be more successful across two important minor league levels, it shows a clear step forward from his more raw college days and his rough 2017. The stuff has always been there when he has been at his best; now that he has proven that he can maintain his best stuff, the risk he ends up in the bullpen is much lower and his shot at being a mid-rotation starter or better in New York has improved.

1B Nathaniel Lowe (Rays, Age 23)
25 HR, .349/.436/.602, 1 SB, 70/61 K/BB, 191 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 51 at High A, 50 at AA, 6 at AAA
Coming into the season, Lowe was a fringe prospect who was a fine hitter in the mid minors, but who didn't quite show enough power for a first baseman and who would probably get lost in the shuffle if he didn't do something soon. Well, he did something. He began at High A Charlotte, the same place he finished last year (and where he slashed .249/.355/.353), but was much better; after 51 games, he was slashing .356/.432/.588 with 10 home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to AA Montgomery, he kept on hitting. Through 50 games, he slashed .342/.446/.610 with 13 home runs and a 30/35 strikeout to walk ratio. Recently, he was bumped up again, this time to AAA Durham, where he is slashing .346/.393/.654 with a pair of home runs and a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over six games. He has not only shown the ability to hit for power, but also average and plate discipline. Bumping up his walk rate from 11.4% to 15.6% and dropping his strikeout rate from 15% to 13.4% between High A and AA is an especially good sign, showing that he can control the strike zone against advanced pitching, which bodes well for major league success. He entered the season as a fringe prospect, but now he may be the first baseman of the future in Tampa.

C Ronaldo Hernandez (Rays, Age 20)
18 HR, .286/.339/.499, 9 SB, 61/26 K/BB, 133 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 95 at Class A
Catching prospects are hard to come by, so whenever one shows the ability to hit, they immediately become extremely valuable. Hernandez didn't pop out of nowhere; as a 19 year old in the rookie level Appalachian League last year, he slashed .332/.382/.507 with five home runs over 54 games. However, plenty of guys hit over somewhat small samples in rookie ball and struggle to translate it up. That's why his success this year, including a .286/.339/.499 line and 18 home runs in 95 games, is so important. Class A is a big jump up from the Appalachian League, and by maintaining his success over a larger sample, he has proven that the bat is for real. The 61/26 strikeout to walk ratio isn't excellent but it isn't bad either, and just proving that he is a catcher who can hit is enough to bump his stock up considerably. He has a long way still to go, but he's just 20 and he's right on track.

RHP Luis Patino (Padres, Age 18)
5-3, 2.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 86/20 K/BB, 71.2 IP
Game Breakdown: All 15 starts in Class A
Patino was an electric arm coming out of Colombia, and success in his complex level (lowest minor league level) debut in 2017 (2.25 ERA, 58/18 K/BB) was a nice indicator. Like Hernandez, Class A was set to be the first real test, and he has passed with flying colors at two years younger than Hernandez. Through 15 starts for Fort Wayne, he is 5-3 with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, striking out 86 and walking 20 in 71.2 innings despite not turning 19 until October. For an 18 year old, a 30% strikeout rate against a 7% walk rate will do. While the strikeout rate is impressive, I'm more impressed by the low walk rate, just because of his young age as well as because of the advanced competition he is facing in the Midwest League. At this rate, he could be in AA before his 20th birthday and could be in the majors before he can drink, which is saying a lot for the kid who began in the Dominican Summer League just last season.

SS Isaac Paredes (Tigers, Age 19)
13 HR, .267/.344/.444, 2 SB, 66/40 K/BB, 123 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 84 in High A, 21 in AA
Paredes is another young guy who is proving himself based on holding his own against much older competition. Beginning the season at High A Lakeland, he slashed .259/.338/.455 with 12 home runs and a 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games, showing a little bit of plate discipline, power, and defense. Promoted to AA at just 19 years old, he has continued producing, slashing .303/.372/.394 with a home run and a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games. It's a small sample so I won't fault him for the slight decrease in power, but it's really nice to see both the strikeout rate (15.6% in High A to 15.4% in AA) and the walk rate (9.2% to 10.3%) hold up with the promotion. Young players who can control the strike zone against advanced pitching have a great chance of maintaining that production as they move up, and Paredes could be in the major leagues next season at just 20 years old.

SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers, Age 20)
13 HR, .327/.396/.521, 12 SB, 76/45 K/BB, 148 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 88 at High A, 9 at AA
High school bats, especially from the north (Lux is from Wisconsin), often take some time to develop, and Lux really broke out in 2018. After a so-so season at Class A Great Lakes in 2017, where he slashed an uninspiring .244/.331/.362 with a respectable 88/56 strikeout to walk ratio as a teenager, 2018 has been a different story. The bat developed at High A Rancho Cucamonga, where he slashed .324/.396/.520 with 11 home runs and a 68/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, earning a recent promotion to AA Tulsa. The jump from Rancho Cucamonga to Tulsa is a big one, as Rancho Cucamonga is in the extremely hitter-friendly California League and Tulsa skews a bit more pitcher friendly, on top of the large jump from one level to the next. However, through nine games, he is showing no signs of slowing down, slashing .359/.390/.538 with a pair of home runs and an 8/2 strikeout to walk ratio. In all, Lux is a 20 year old bat that took his prospect status from "project with a high ceiling" to "AA hitter who is fulfilling his promise and is not too far from a major league opportunity." Throw in his 12 stolen bases this year and his ability to play shortstop, and the Dodgers have something special.

Others: Taylor Ward (Angels), Touki Toussaint (Braves), William Contreras (Braves), Bruce Zimmerman (Orioles), Bobby Dalbec (Red Sox)

The Trade Deadline All In One Place

AL East

75-33 Boston Red Sox (buyers)
Acquired: Ian Kinsler, Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce, cash, international bonus money
Traded: Jalen Beeks, minor leaguers Ty Buttrey, Williams Jerez, Santiago Espinal, Lorenzo Cedrola
Made minor upgrades without selling the farm 

67-37 New York Yankees (buyers)
Acquired: Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, Luke Voit, international bonus money
Traded: Brandon Drury, Adam Warren, Chasen Shreve, Tyler Austin, Giovanny Gallegos, Billy McKinney, minor leaguers Dillon Tate, Caleb Frare, Cody Carroll, Josh Rodgers, Luis Rijo
Made roster much more efficient but upgrading positions, selling off expendables, and dealing from depth

53-53 Tampa Bay Rays (both)
Acquired: Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, Hoby Milner, Jalen Beeks, minor leaguers Brian Shaffer, Michael Perez, two players to be named later, cash, international bonus money
Traded: Chris Archer, Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Andriese, Wilson Ramos, Jonny Venters, Jeremy Hazelbaker, minor leaguers Genesis Cabrera, Justin Williams, Roel Ramirez, Hunter Schryver, cash
Took interesting path by acquiring some controllable players while also selling off all kinds of players from Chris Archer to prospects to free agent rentals

48-57 Toronto Blue Jays (sellers)
Acquired: Ken Giles, Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney, David Paulino, minor leaguers Forrest Wall, Chad Spanberger, Hector Perez, Corey Copping, Jacob Waguespack
Traded: Roberto Osuna, J.A. Happ, Seung-Hwan Oh, Aaron Loup, John Axford
Added to strong farm system while also ridding themselves of domestic abuser Roberto Osuna, overall a great job 

32-74 Baltimore Orioles (sellers)
Acquired: Jonathan Villar, Evan Phillips, Breyvic Valera, minor leaguers Yusniel Diaz, Bruce Zimmerman, Jean Carlos Encarnacion, Luis Ortiz, Dillon Tate, Brett Cumberland, Rylan Bannon, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, Cody Carroll, Josh Rodgers, Jean Carmona, international bonus money
Traded: Manny Machado, Kevin Gausman, Zach Britton, Jonathan Schoop, Brad Brach, Darren O'Day
Finally got serious about a rebuild and completely revamped their farm system by tearing down the team in such a way that would make the Marlins look conservative

AL Central

57-48 Cleveland Indians (buyers)
Acquired: Brad Hand, Adam Cimber, Leonys Martin, James Hoyt, minor leaguers Oscar Mercado, Kyle Dowdy
Trade: Francisco Mejia, minor leaguers Willi Castro, Conner Capel, Jhon Torres, Tommy DeJuneas
Upgraded bullpen and outfield but outside of Brad Hand, no major pieces moved

49-56 Minnesota Twins (sellers)
Acquired: Logan Forsythe, Tyler Austin, Chase De Jong, Jeremy Hazelbaker, minor leaguers Jhoan Duran, Ernie De La Trinidad, Gabriel Maciel, Gilberto Celestino, Jorge Alcala, Luke Raley, Devin Smeltzer, Ryan Costello, Luis Rijo, Jon Kemmer
Traded: Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Ryan Pressly, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, cash
Added high-upside talent by offloading some of the bigger names on the roster

45-62 Detroit Tigers (neither)
Acquired: Minor leaguer Willi Castro
Traded: Leonys Martin, minor leaguer Kyle Dowdy
Stayed mostly quiet after wild deadline last season

37-68 Chicago White Sox (sellers)
Acquired: Minor leaguers Kodi Medeiros, Wilber Perez, Caleb Frare, Hunter Schryver
Traded: Joakim Soria, international bonus money
Quiet deadline, but they did grab a quality prospect in Medeiros

32-73 Kansas City Royals (sellers)
Acquired: Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, minor leaguers Blake Perkins, Kelvin Gutierrez, Yohanse Morel
Traded: Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas, minor leaguer Jacob Condra-Bogan
Also quiet, added some nice young outfield pieces for a couple long-time players

AL West

67-41 Houston Astros (buyers)
Acquired: Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Martin Maldonado, minor leaguer Tommy DeJuneas
Traded: Ken Giles, David Paulino, James Hoyt, minor leaguers Hector Perez, Gilberto Celestino, Jorge Alcala, Patrick Sandoval, Jon Kemmer, international bonus money
Grabbed two quality arms and a catcher in exchange for a host of arms from the system

63-43 Seattle Mariners (buyers)
Acquired: Cameron Maybin, Adam Warren, Zach Duke, Sam Tuivailala
Traded: Chase de Jong, minor leaguers Seth Elledge, Bryson Brigman, Ryan Costello, international bonus money
Added reinforced bullpen without giving up any top prospects from a depleted farm system

62-46 Oakland Athletics (buyers)
Acquired: Jeurys Familia
Traded: Bobby Wahl, minor leaguer Will Toffey, international bonus money
Quiet deadline but got Familia at a big discount

54-53 Los Angeles Angels (sellers)
Acquired: Ty Buttrey, minor leaguers Patrick Sandoval, Williams Jerez, international bonus money
Traded: Ian Kinsler, Martin Maldonado, cash
Unlucky season forced Angels to sell, though it was more of a re-stock than a tear-down

46-62 Texas Rangers (sellers)
Acquired: Austin Jackson, Cory Gearrin, Eddie Butler, minor leaguers Taylor Hearn, Jason Bahr, Rollie Lacy, Tyler Thomas, Wei-Chieh Huang, three players to be named later
Traded: Cole Hamels, Keone Kela, Jake Diekman, Jesse Chavez, player to be named later
Sent all of their arms off and brought back...a lot of players to be named later, though Taylor Hearn is a big get

NL East

58-48 Philadelphia Phillies (buyers)
Acquired: Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilson Ramos, Aaron Loup, cash, international bonus money
Traded: Hoby Milner, minor leaguers Franklyn Kilome, Jacob Waguespack, Elniery Garcia, player to be named later
Made some minor but necessary additions while dealing from position of depth

56-47 Atlanta Braves (buyers)
Acquired: Kevin Gausman, Adam Duvall, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach, Jonny Venters
Traded: Matt Wisler, Preston Tucker, Lucas Sims, Evan Phillips, minor leaguers Bruce Zimmerman, Jean Carlos Encarnacion, Brett Cumberland, international bonus money
Did a great job of adding quality arms and Duvall without giving up anyone that figured prominently into their long term plans, simultaneously paving way for William Contreras by trading Cumberland

52-53 Washington Nationals (neither)
Acquired: Kelvin Herrera, minor leaguers Jhon Romero, Jacob Condra-Bogan
Traded: Brandon Kintzler, Brian Goodwin, minor leaguers Blake Perkins, Kelvin Gutierrez, Yohanse Morel
Stood mostly idle during what should have been a frantic trade deadline, seemingly content with mediocrity

44-59 New York Mets (sellers)
Acquired: Bobby Wahl, minor leaguers Will Toffey, Franklyn Kilome, international bonus money
Traded: Asdrubal Cabrera, Jeurys Familia
Unloaded difference makers to give their farm system a quick jolt

46-60 Miami Marlins (sellers)
Acquired: Minor leaguers Tommy Eveld, Bryson Brigman, international bonus money
Traded: Cameron Maybin, Brad Ziegler
Amid swirling J.T. Realmuto rumors, elected to just send off two decent pieces for a couple of prospects

NL Central

61-44 Chicago Cubs (buyers)
Acquired: Cole Hamels, Brandon Kintzler, Jesse Chavez, cash
Traded: Eddie Butler, minor leaguers Rollie Lacy, Jhon Romero, Tyler Thomas, player to be named later
Were able to make nice upgrades to pitching staff despite lack of prospects to give

62-47 Milwaukee Brewers (buyers)
Acquired: Jonathan Schoop, Mike Moustakas, Joakim Soria, cash
Traded: Jonathan Villar, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, minor leaguers Luis Ortiz, Kodi Medeiros, Wilber Perez, Jean Carmona
Addressed a quite few needs but did have to take from farm system to do so

55-52 Pittsburgh Pirates (buyers)
Acquired: Chris Archer, Keone Kela
Traded: Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, Taylor Hearn, two players to be named later
Made huge additions to pitching staff, but at a steep cost

54-52 St. Louis Cardinals (sellers)
Acquired: Chasen Shreve, Giovanny Gallegos, minor leaguers Genesis Cabrera, Justin Williams, Roel Ramirez, Seth Elledge, Conner Capel, Jhon Torres, Elniery Garcia
Traded: Tommy Pham, Sam Tuivailala, Luke Voit, minor leaguer Oscar Mercado, international bonus money
Had a quick re-tool and grabbed some quality prospects in the process, could still compete in 2018

48-58 Cincinnati Reds (sellers)
Acquired: Matt Wisler, Preston Tucker, Lucas Sims, minor leaguers James Marinan, Aneurys Zabala, Lorenzo Cedrola
Traded: Adam Duvall, Dylan Floro, Zach Neal, international bonus money
Deadline has to be disappointing with small return for Adam Duvall

NL West

59-48 Los Angeles Dodgers (buyers)
Acquired: Manny Machado, Brian Dozier, John Axford, Dylan Floro, Zach Neal, international bonus money
Traded: Logan Forsythe, Breyvic Valera, minor leaguers Yusniel Diaz, Rylan Bannon, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, Luke Raley, Devin Smeltzer, James Marinan, Aneurys Zabala, Corey Copping
Made huge upgrades to infield, had to part with many prospects but kept all top prospects except Diaz

59-49 Arizona Diamondbacks (buyers)
Acquired: Eduardo Escobar, Brad Ziegler, Jake Diekman, Matt Andriese
Traded: Minor leaguers Jhoan Duran, Ernie De La Trinidad, Gabriel Maciel, Brian Shaffer, Michael Perez, Wei-Chieh Huang, Tommy Eveld, player to be named later
Made quite a few important upgrades but had to part with a large number of prospects, avoiding the big names but still denting the farm system

57-48 Colorado Rockies (buyers)
Acquired: Seung-Hwan Oh
Traded: Minor leaguers Forrest Wall, Chad Spanberger
Quiet deadline, probably will hurt them in the chase for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks because they need more offense

54-54 San Francisco Giants (neither)
Acquired: Player to be named later
Traded: Austin Jackson, Cory Gearrin, minor leaguer Jason Bahr
Made salary dump trade early in July then stood idle at the deadline

42-67 San Diego Padres (sellers)
Acquired: Francisco Mejia
Traded: Brad Hand, Adam Cimber
Success of this deadline will depend on whether Mejia sticks as a catcher

Pirates, Rays Complete Chris Archer Blockbuster

Pirates Get: RHP Chris Archer (3-5, 4.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 102/31 K/BB, Age 29)
Rays Get: OF Austin Meadows (5 HR, .292/.327/.468, 4 SB, 110 wRC+, Age 23)
RHP Tyler Glasnow (1-2, 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 72/34 K/BB, Age 24)
Player to be named later

After years of rumors that he would be moved, the Rays finally shipped star pitcher Chris Archer north to Pittsburgh. It's an especially big day for Pittsburgh, who is usually on the other end of deals like this (see Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen, Tony Watson, Neil Walker, Mark Melancon, you get it). This deal certainly accomplishes a goal for both teams, and while it makes a bit more sense for Tampa than it does for Pittsburgh, in my opinion, both teams come out winners.

The Pirates were sitting at 40-48 coming off their fifth straight loss on July 7th, but they have turned it around to go 15-4 since then and now sit at 55-52, just 3.5 games back of the Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card. In adding star pitcher Chris Archer, ownership sent a clear message to the team; we believe in you, and let's win now. Of course, the cost was steep, perhaps too steep, but the reality is that Archer does change the dynamic of this team. It's unclear who draws the short straw in the current rotation, though it looks like it will be Joe Musgrove or Nick Kingham, with Archer settling in at the top with Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, and Trevor Williams. Archer himself is a bit of a mixed bag. I'm not backtracking on the statement that he changes the dynamic of the team: his vibrant personality, high strikeout totals, partial track record of success, and team-friendly contract (his options run through 2021 and total just $24 million for 2019-2021) provide a big jolt to the Pirates. However, when you look at the numbers, Archer is more of a mid-rotation starter than an ace. From 2013-2015, he was great, even ace-like, going 31-29 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 89 starts, even striking out 252 batters (29%) in 2015. In 2016, his ERA jumped to 4.02 but he still struck out 233 batters (27.4%), then it was more of the same in 2017, when his ERA was 4.07 and he struck out 249 (29.2%). This year, his ERA is up to 4.31 and his strikeout rate is down to 24.7%, and at this point I think he is who he has been over the past three seasons rather than the previous three seasons from 2013-2015. Still, 24.7% is a high strikeout rate, and when you strike out guys at that rate while keeping your walks down like Archer does, you're not likely to see your ERA jump much higher than the 4.31 it currently sits at. In the end, they probably gave up too much, but it's a deal whose message is perhaps more important than its personnel. For his career, the Raleigh-area native is 54-68 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 1146/347 strikeout to walk ratio (25.7% to 7.8%) over 1063 innings, all with the Rays.

Meanwhile, the Rays have to be very happy with the value they pulled out of Archer, and this trade is very on-brand for the team. They somehow always manage to rebuild without tanking, which is very rare for small market teams, and it looks like they'll be ready to contend as soon as 2019. With Jake Bauers, Willy Adames, Christian Arroyo, Blake Snell, and a hoard of young pitchers just breaking into the majors, a core is forming and it could surprise everyone. Because of this, the Rays brought back two young, post-hype players who are already in the majors and can contribute immediately, and I think that's great for them. I'll start with Austin Meadows, who was drafted ninth overall out of high school outside Atlanta in 2013. It's been a bumpy road since then, as he has spent significant time on the disabled list in every season except 2015, but he is finally healthy this year and the results have been great. In 49 games with the Pirates, he is slashing .292/.327/.468 with five home runs and four stolen bases, good for a very respectable 110 wRC+. I think that's about indicative of his true talent, and over a full season, that's borderline All Star caliber. If he continues to stay healthy and get more time on the field under his belt, it's not hard to envision him as a 20/20 player, and it's easy to forget he just turned 23 in May. Kevin Kiermaier, Tommy Pham, and Carlos Gomez have the three starting outfield spots for now, but Gomez doesn't seem like much of a road block and Meadows should get plenty of playing time. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow was at one time one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, and for good reason; to date, over 118 minor league games (117 starts), his performance record looks like this: 45-21, 2.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 785/278 K/BB (33% to 11.7%) over 593.1 innings. However, his stock is down after years of not being able to translate that success to the majors. His extended look in 2017 was especially ugly, as he went 2-7 with a 7.69 ERA, a 2.02 WHIP, and a 56/44 strikeout to walk ratio (18.4% to 14.4%) over 62 innings, his lack of command really hurting him. They shifted him to the bullpen this year and the results have been moderately better: 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 72/34 K/BB (29.6% to 14%), the strikeout rate noticeably up but the lack of command still keeping him from being a true difference maker. He turns just 25 in a few weeks and a change of scenery should do him good, and if the Rays can get his command under control (no pun intended) then his ceiling is not too far off from Chris Archer. For his career, he is 3-11 with a 5.79 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 152/91 strikeout to walk ratio (23.3% to 13.9%) over 141.1 innings. Additionally, don't discount the player to be named later, as he is reportedly supposed to be a more than just a throw in.

Blue Jays, Astros Swap Relief Aces

Astros Get: RHP Roberto Osuna (0-0, 2.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 13/1 K/BB, Age 23)

Blue Jays Get: RHP Ken Giles (0-2, 4.99 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 31/3 K/BB, Age 27)

RHP David Paulino (0-0, 4.67 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/6 K/BB at GCL and AAA, Age 24)

RHP Hector Perez (3-4, 3.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 101/48 K/BB at High A and AA, Age 22)

The Blue Jays and Astros swapped two of the game's better relievers, and I have to say I think the Blue Jays come out on top of this one. Osuna is more consistent than Giles, but when he's at his best, Giles can be just as good, and unlike Osuna, he does not have a domestic abuse suspension on his record. With the two minor league arms coming along with Giles, it's hard to see the Jays as anything but clear winners here.

New Astros relief ace Roberto Osuna is a controversial player, and for good reason. Back in May, he was suspended 75 games for domestic violence, and his court date is set for Wednesday. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow stated that the front office believes he "...is remorseful, has willfully complied with all consequences related to his past behavior, has proactively engaged in counseling, and will fully comply with our zero tolerance policy related to abuse of any kind..." From the outside, it's tough to say whether the Astros truly believe Osuna has grown from the incident or whether they're just releasing the statement to cover themselves, so I'll let you make of it what you want to. On to baseball analysis: when he's on the field, Osuna is as good a reliever as anybody in the game, save for maybe Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel. He broke into the majors at just 20 years old in 2015 as the first player ever born in 1995, immediately contributing with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over 68 appearances, striking out 75 and walking just 16 in 69.2 innings. His numbers were very similar in 2016, and while his ERA jumped to 3.38 in 2017, he put up a career-best 83/9 strikeout to walk ratio (33.3% to 3.6%) in 64 innings. In 15 appearances before his suspension this year, he had a 2.93 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 13/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings, i.e. more of the same. What sets Osuna apart from other elite relievers is his consistency, and that is something the Astros have not gotten from their bullpen. Along with newly acquired Ryan Pressly, he'll hope to jump start the bullpen, which also includes Chris Devenski, Tony Sipp, Will Harris, Joe Smith, and Hector Rondon as big names. He's under team control for 2018, 2019, and 2020, so it's not just a rental. For his career, the Mexico native has a 2.87 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 253/40 strikeout to walk ratio (29% to 4.6%) over 223 innings.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays did a fantastic job here, simultaneously ridding themselves of a domestic abuser and picking up a nearly as good major league arm plus two prospects. Ken Giles, like Osuna, is under team control for 2018, 2019, and 2020, and when he's at his best, he's as good. Back in 2015, he posted a 1.80 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 69 appearances for the Astros, striking out 87 and walking 25 in 70 innings. In 2017, he had a 2.30 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 83/21 strikeout to walk ratio (33.6% to 8.5%) in 62.2 innings. However, those were the peaks, and in 2016, his ERA sat at 4.11 (though 102 strikeouts put his K rate at 35.7%), and this year, he has been inconsistent enough to earn a demotion to AAA Fresno. Through 34 appearances with the Astros, he has a 4.99 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 31/3 strikeout to walk ratio (24% to 2.3%) over 30.2 innings, the uptick in earned runs coming from increased hittability. Though his strikeouts are down a little, it's nice to see the low walk rate as well, and hopefully the BABIP gods (his is .366 this year) will work more in his favor in Toronto with Kevin Pillar out there catching all those fly balls. For his career, the Albuquerque native has a 2.72 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 367/85 strikeout to walk ratio (32.6% to 7.5%) over 274.2 innings. David Paulino is very well known to prospect enthusiasts at this point, pushing his way to being ranked the 38th best prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2017 season by my favorite prospect evaluator, John Sickels at Minor League Ball. However, his stock tumbled that year as he pitched in just nine professional games (three at AAA Fresno, six in the majors), missing much of the season to a PED suspension and then ending his season early with elbow surgery. He missed much of this season recovering from that surgery but has managed to pitch in just seven games, with three coming in rehab work in the Gulf Coast League and four coming with AAA Fresno (5.50 ERA, 23/5 K/BB in 18 innings). The 6'7" right hander has starter quality stuff and is talented enough to profile near the top of a major league rotation, but the multitude of injuries he has suffered throughout his career make it look more and more likely he'll have to switch to the bullpen in order to stay healthy. He's 24 and in AAA, so he's just about major league ready and just needs to prove he can stay on the mound. In nine career MLB games (seven starts) from 2016-2017, the Dominican is 2-1 with a 6.25 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 36/10 strikeout to walk ratio (22.9% to 6.4%) over 36 innings. Lastly, Hector Perez has a lower ceiling but is a much safer bet than Paulino. The 6'3" righty has been brought along slowly in the Astros organization but he's pitching as well as ever this year. Starting in High A Buies Creek, he went 3-3 with a 3.84 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an 83/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 72.2 innings, showing great stuff but the need for better command. Recently promoted to AA Corpus Christi, he hasn't missed a beat, posting a 3.24 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.2 innings. At every level, his command problems look like they will finally catch up to him with his next promotion, but so far they haven't and now that he's in AA, his consistent performance makes him look like he could be a fine #3 or #4 starter with the possibility for more. He just turned 22 in June.

Indians Upgrade Bullpen with Hand, Padres Add Top Prospect Mejia

Indians get: LHP Brad Hand (2-4, 3.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 65/15 K/BB, Age 28)
RHP Adam Cimber (3-5, 3.17 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 51/10 K/BB, Age 27)
Padres get: C/IF/OF Francisco Mejia (0 HR, .000/.500/.000, 0 SB, 117 wRC+, Age 22)

Lefty Brad Hand has been on the trade block for a while now, and the Padres finally let him (and Aaron Cimber) go over to Cleveland in exchange for top prospect Francisco Mejia. The Indians' bullpen is far under-performing, with its 5.28 ERA ranking second to last in baseball just one year after its 2.89 ERA led all of baseball. Hand, who has been one of the best left handers in baseball over the past three seasons, should change that. Though he hasn't quite been pitching to his 2017 levels (2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 104/20 K/BB), his 3.05 ERA this year and 1.08 WHIP are very respectable and at this point, he has proven to be consistently well above average, something few relievers can do. Joining Cody Allen and Andrew Miller at the back of that bullpen will once again give the Indians something to be proud of in the later innings. As a huge bonus, Hand is under contract through the 2020 season, being owed just $6.5 million in 2019 and $7 million in 2020. He has a $10 million option in 2021 as well, which is very affordable if he continues to perform to this level. Meanwhile, perhaps submarining righty Adam Cimber will get lost in this trade, but he shouldn't be. The 27 year old rookie has matched Hand nearly pitch for pitch this season, doing so from an extreme submarine delivery. He's old for a rookie, having been drafted back in 2013 as a senior out of the University of San Francisco, but he should be ale to shore up the middle innings for quite a few years.

This isn't your typical trade because in exchange for their controllable star and an extra piece, the Padres are only getting one prospect back. That prospect happens to be nationally-recognized catcher Francisco Mejia, but it's still just one prospect. You can look at it in two ways. From one perspective, Padres were only able to get one prospect, and even though he is one of the better prospects in the game, they're putting all their eggs in one basket while trading away a controllable star. If you look at it another way, the Padres were able to get a prospect many would view as "untouchable," a potential superstar who could headline a package for just about anyone in baseball, without trading away a true superstar of their own. To me, it all comes down to whether the Padres think he can catch. There's few questions about the bat; he slashed .297/.346/.490 with 14 home runs at AA Akron in 2017, and though he started slow this year, he has built his slash line up .279/.328/.426 with seven home runs for AAA Columbus. In fact, he was hitting just .178/.236/.276 with three total home runs as late as May 24th, but he has caught fire since then, including a .455/.476/.717 slash line in June. He profiles as a guy with middling home run power, perhaps 15-20 per season, while maintaining a high batting average and a decent on-base percentage. That's not necessary the most exciting offensive package, but if he can stick behind the plate, he suddenly ends up in the same realm as J.T. Realmuto and Gary Sanchez. However, if his mediocre receiving skills cause him to move to third base or the outfield, something he doesn't want to do, he becomes more of a decent regular who can put up 2.0-3.0 fWAR per season. I haven't watched enough of Mejia to be able to say whether I think he can stick behind the plate, but I can tell you this; if you like his chances back there, it's a great trade, but if you don't, you can't help but be just a little disappointed that he's all you got for Hand. We'll have to see.

Dodgers Land Manny Machado

Dodgers get: SS Manny Machado (24 HR, .315/.387/.575, 8 SB, 156 wRC+, Age 26)
Orioles get: 2B Breyvic Valera (0 HR, .172/.273/.172, 0 SB, 34 wRC+, Age 26)
OF Yusniel Diaz (6 HR, .314/.428/.477, 8 SB, 147 wRC+ at AA, Age 21)
RHP Dean Kremer (6-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 125/29 K/BB at High A and AA, Age 22)
3B Rylan Bannon (20 HR, .296/.402/.559, 4 SB, 159 wRC+ at High A, Age 22)
RHP Zach Pop (1-2, 1.04 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 47/13 K/BB at Class A and High A, Age 21)

The Orioles are an absolute joke this season at 28-69 heading into the All Star Break, a full 39.5 games back of the Red Sox in the AL East. The one bright spot, and I mean the one, lone, single bright spot has been Manny Machado, who has been playing like the perennial All Star he always has been but who also is a free agent after the season. When you're 39.5 games back in your division and 30 games back of the second wild card spot, the season is over, and you might as well get some value out of Machado while you can. Meanwhile, Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager went down with an elbow injury at the end of April and he won't play again this year. Given LA's prospect depth, that makes them the perfect landing spot for a rental infielder like Machado, who will reportedly see time at both shortstop and third base for the remainder of the season. Through 96 games with the O's this year, he's slashing .315/.387/.575 with 24 home runs, good for a 156 wRC+ and 3.8 fWAR. That is a game changing stat line regardless of defensive value, and when you can play a terrific third base and a very decent shortstop to go along with it, that's team-changing. The one knock on Machado has been his very sharp home/road split; playing 48 games apiece, he is slashing .360/.448/.691 with 17 home runs at home and .274/.329/.468 with seven home runs on the road. His strikeout to walk ratios are also drastically different: 21/28 at home and 30/17 on the road. His plate discipline has always been at least somewhat better at home, so maybe he just like's the batters' eye? My guess is most of it is dumb luck and the random nature of statistics in small(ish) sample sizes. While Camden Yards is definitely a hitters' park, its effects aren't that drastic. He'll continue to hit great out west, but maybe his wOBA drops by .010 or .020 or so.

Meanwhile, the Orioles got an array of prospects, but none are more valuable than 21 year old outfielder Yusniel Diaz, around whom the deal is centered. Diaz is a Cuban signee in his third pro season, and he's playing his best baseball by slashing .314/.428/.477 with six home runs and a 39/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games at AA Tulsa. Diaz will never get up into that 20-30 home run range, even in Baltimore, but he's a great athlete that should hit around 15-20 home runs per season in Camden while also getting on base and playing good defense. He shows great plate discipline and sprays line drives around the park, and though his base running could use some work (he has been caught stealing 30 times in 54 attempts in the minor leagues), he's fast. On defense, he could be above average at the outfield corners or hold his own in center field, and he has the upside of a starting outfielder who could get on base at a clip near .400 with that moderate power and good defense. Breyvic Valera is the only one of the quintet to have played in the majors, appearing in five games for the Cardinals in 2017 and 20 more for the Dodgers this year. He hasn't been great in either trial, slashing .154/.250/.154 with no extra base hits for his career, but he's an established minor league bat that should be able to stick as a utility infielder once he translates his success to the majors. In 56 games at AAA Oklahoma City this year, he's hitting a much better .284/.350/.433 with six home runs and a nice 20/21 strikeout to walk ratio. He's already 26, but he should be able to help out off the bench. Right handed pitcher Dean Kremer has taken very well to his transition to full-time starting. In 16 starts with High A Rancho Cucamonga in the very hitter-friendly California League, he went 5-3 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP,  striking out 114 and walking 26 in 79 innings. Those are fantastic numbers for that league. Upon being promoted to AA Tulsa, he dominated Midland (A's AA) in his first start, tossing seven shutout innings on three hits, three walks, and eleven strikeouts. He was somewhat buried in a deep Dodgers farm system, but in a much more shallow Baltimore system, he has a chance to push his way to the majors as a starting pitcher. You may remember him from the World Baseball Classic, where the Israeli citizen pitched for Team Israel during its improbable run. Third baseman Rylan Bannon has done nothing but hit since being drafted in the eighth round out of Xavier in 2017, slashing .336/.425/.591 in the rookie-level Pioneer League last year before skipping straight to High A Rancho Cucamonga this year. Through 89 games, he is slashing .296/.402/.559 with 20 home runs and a 103/59 strikeout to walk ratio, great numbers even when you account for the boost he's getting from the Cal League. Those numbers are a little inflated and he probably ends up an average hitter at the major league level, though his 14.6% walk rate will really help him maintain value as a guy who can get on base. If he cuts down his strikeouts, he has an outside shot at starting in the Orioles infield down the road. Right hander Zach Pop is a relief prospect that has been exceptional since the Dodgers "popped" him in the seventh round of the 2017 draft out of the University of Kentucky, ranking 135th on my pre-draft list. He was used exclusively as a reliever during his junior year of college, and he took a big step forward when the Dodgers cleaned up his command. Beginning at Class A Great Lakes, he posted a 2.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over eleven appearances, striking out 24 and walking seven in 16.1 innings. When he earned the promotion to High A Rancho Cucamonga in that hitter-friendly Cal League, he seemed to reach another gear, posting a 0.33 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP, and a 23/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. He throws hard, hitting the upper 90's at times, and his slider ranges from loopy meatball to un-hittable. He projects as a middle relief type or set-up man. Overall, the package obviously centers on Diaz and whether he can successfully become an impact player in Baltimore, but there is a lot of depth behind him and at least one or two of the others will likely end up making an impact down the road.

2018 First "Half" Awards

AL MVP: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)
25 HR, .310/.454/.606, 15 SB, 187 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR in 97 games
When three American League players finished the first half with exactly 6.5 fWAR, it's going to be a narrow race, and I picked Trout just a hair ahead of Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez. While Betts has hit at a better rate (202 wRC+ to Trout's 187 and Ramirez' 174), Trout has played 19 more games than Betts, and I have to take that into account that Trout has played in every single game for the 49-48 Angels. He has also been incredible consistent, never posting an OPS below 1.064 in any of the three full months (April, May, June) because his on-base percentage never dipped below .427 and his slugging percentage never fell below .593. Oh yeah, and he has walked more (84) than he has struck out (83), swiped 15 bases in 16 attempts, and played good defense in center field. Trout is the best player since at least Barry Bonds, and he's as good as ever in 2018.

Runner up: Mookie Betts (23 HR, .359/.448/.691, 18 SB, 202 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR)
Honorable mentions: Jose Ramirez (6.5 fWAR), Francisco Lindor (5.4 fWAR), Andrelton Simmons (4.0 fWAR)

NL MVP: Nolan Arenado (Colorado Rockies)
23 HR, .312/.395/.586, 2 SB, 145 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR in 90 games
I have been resistant to giving Arenado the MVP award in any season because his numbers have been more in line with those of others rather than ahead of them, and a Rockies MVP candidate really should be blowing his competition out of the water offensively. Well this year, he is, with his .412 wOBA (not park adjusted) second only to defensive butcher Jesus Aguilar's .414 in the National League, helping his 145 wRC+ (park adjusted, Coors Field effect mitigated) good for fifth behind Aguilar (159), Eugenio Suarez (158), Freddie Freeman (150), and Paul Goldschmidt (146). (On a side note, who the heck thought those two would be in first and second place?). Throw in Arenado's elite defense, and you have an MVP. He is currently setting career highs in all of his rate stats, including batting average (.312), on-base percentage (.395), slugging percentage (.586), wOBA (.412), wRC+ (145), walk rate (12.4%), and also strikeout rate (18.2%, not that that one is a good thing). He's really having a career year, and like Trout, he hasn't really slumped at all. The one thing I notice is that his home/road splits are even more drastic than you'd expect, as he is slashing .370/.447/.694 with 14 home runs in 46 games at Coors and .253/.343/.476 with nine home runs in 44 games on the road. The wRC+, which is not effected by Coors, is then 175 at home and 115 on the road.

Runner up: Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 149/30 K/BB in 123.1 IP)
Honorable mentions: Max Scherzer (2.41 ERA), Aaron Nola (2.30 ERA), Scooter Gennett (3.3 fWAR)

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander (Houston Astros)
9-5, 2.29 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 172/24 K/BB in 137.2 innings
Even at 35, Justin Verlander is at the top of his game, likely solidifying his Hall of Fame case with his performance this season. He's near the top of all the AL leaderboards this year, including ERA (4th), WHIP (1st), strikeouts (4th), strikeout to walk ratio (2nd), innings (1st), and pitching fWAR (3rd). While he has scuffled just a bit in his last few starts, he did go on a tear from April 9th to June 2nd where he pitched at least six innings in each of his eleven starts and gave up no more than two runs, earned or unearned. At the end of May, his ERA sat at 1.11 and his WHIP at 0.72, and while those numbers have risen to 2.29 and 0.84, respectively, and it's not like he has even been bad since then; his 4.11 ERA and 1.05 WHIP are pretty respectable for a "slump," or as I like to call it in this case, a regression. He's going up against tough opponents in the AL West including the surprisingly good Mariners and A's as well as the just-hanging-in-there Angels.

Runner up: Chris Sale (10-4, 2.23 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 188/31 K/BB in 129 IP)
Honorable mentions: Trevor Bauer (2.24 ERA), Gerrit Cole (2.52 ERA), Luis Severino (2.31 ERA)

NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
5-4, 1.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 149/30 K/BB in 123.1 innings
It's easy to forget about him, as he pitches for the forgettable Mets, but deGrom is quietly shutting down opponents every time he steps on the mound. His 1.68 ERA is first in major league baseball by a long shot, and if you add in his three unearned runs, his 1.90 RA9 still crushes everybody else's ERA. He has allowed more than three runs in a game just once, when he allowed four on April 10th, and has allowed more than one earned run in just five of his 19 starts. That means in 14 out of 19 starts, he limited the opposition to zero or one earned runs, and he still had just a 4.05 ERA in those other five starts, a.k.a. his five worst starts of the season. Nobody has put his team in a better position to win game in and game out than deGrom, and it really takes that much to go 5-4 with that Mets offense behind you.

Runner up: Max Scherzer (12-5, 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 182/34 K/BB in 134.2 IP)
Honorable mentions: Aaron Nola (2.30 ERA), Miles Mikolas (2.79 ERA), Kyle Freeland (3.11 ERA)

AL Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels)
7 HR, .283/.365/.522, 2 SB, 145 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR in 54 games
4-1, 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 61/20 K/BB in 49.1 innings
Ohtani was supposed to run away with this award after a hot start to the season, but the injury makes it a race. With Gleyber Torres hurt as well, Ohtani is able to hold onto his spot into the All Star Break. At the plate, his .283/.365/.522 line is downright incredible for a rookie that is also pitching, and if he had enough plate appearances, his 145 wRC+ would rank 11th in the American League. Combine that with a borderline ace-like performance on the mound on a per-inning basis, one in which he has a 3.10 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over nine starts, and you have something that's literally un-heard of. Unfortunately, he may not pitch again this season, but that means he'll get more plate appearances to beef up his offensive numbers. Among rookies, his 2.2 combined fWAR easily bests Torres' 1.6 for the most in the American League, but even if they were close, I'd still give it to Ohtani for the sheer difficulty of what he is doing.

Runner up: Gleyber Torres (15 HR, .294/.350/.555/ 2 SB, 143 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR)
Honorable mentions: Jake Bauers (1.5 fWAR), Miguel Andujar (1.1 fWAR), Lou Trivino (1.22 ERA)

NL Rookie of the Year: Jack Flaherty (St. Louis Cardinals)
3-4, 3.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 87/24 K/BB in 75 innings
This is a crowded NL Rookie of the Year field, with lots of players holding their own but nobody really standing out yet. I think that will change once Juan Soto catches up to everyone else from a volume of work perspective, but for now, we'll go with Jack Flaherty, who is pitching like a veteran in St. Louis. Through 14 starts he has a 3.24 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an 87/24 strikeout to walk ratio, getting hit around a few times but also tossing some absolute gems. On May 20th, against the surprisingly good Phillies, he allowed one run on just two hits and one walk while striking out 13 in 7.2 innings. On June 22nd, against another good team, the Brewers, he allowed one run again, this time on just one hit, two walks, and 13 strikeouts over seven innings. You don't expect rookies to be consistent, and while Flaherty hasn't been an exception on that front, few can touch him when he's at his best.

Runner up: Brian Anderson (8 HR, .288/.363/.429, 2 SB, 119 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR)
Honorable mentions: Juan Soto (1.5 fWAR), Joey Lucchesi (3.34 ERA), Tyler Mahle (4.02 ERA)