Sunday, October 13, 2024

The top ten unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2025

It took me longer than usual to get all my draft reviews done, but with those out of the way, it's time to take a look at the best prospects to eschew pro ball for now. We'll start with the college prospects, and first let's look at the five from last year's list to go unsigned. Of the five, only one had a truly successful season, as #2 Lebarron Johnson (Texas) pitched his way to a fifth round selection by the Rockies. #1 Tanner Witt (Texas) couldn't stay healthy and #4 Christian Little (LSU) stalled, so both signed for slightly above-slot bonuses on day three to the Mets and Mariners, respectively. Meanwhile, #3 Terry Busse (Georgia Tech) and #5 Joseph Gonzalez (Auburn) struggled mightily and went undrafted again.

This year's class of returners is much more robust, likely due to the continued growth of NIL opportunities that give college draftees added leverage. Last year, just five college players on my draft list went unsigned, while this year that number jumped to thirteen. There were a number of themes among those players, chiefly among them big time power combined with hit tool questions. 6/13 fall into that category, while unsurprisingly, youth and eligibility played a big factor. Each of the first six and eight of the top nine have multiple years of eligibility remaining, while six of the top seven will play the entire coming college season at age-21. After Texas took the top two players on last year's list, LSU was the only school to put two on this year's list, and I was surprised to see only one player hit the transfer portal (unsurprisingly to LSU).

1. LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M (my rank: #69)
Drafted – 3rd round (pick #81), Los Angeles Angels
This was a surprise. After missing 2023 with Tommy John surgery, Ryan Prager returned in 2024 as one of the best pitchers in the SEC and shot up draft boards due to his feel for pitching and sneaky stuff. Amid the controversy of head coach Jim Schlossnagle's abrupt exit to rival Texas, the Angels drafted Prager in the third round in what seemed like a straightforward sign. Despite the double whammy of being a college arm drafted in the top one hundred picks (usually a guarantee to sign) as well as not having the same head coach to come back to, he still declined Los Angeles and returned to College Station to pitch for new Aggie head coach Michael Earley. That's a massive win and will go a long way to ensuring a smooth transition in College Station. Prager himself is a bit of an old school pitcher. His fastball parks around 90 and tops out at 94, showing massive riding life negated a bit by an ultra high, over the top release point. The pitch shows some cutting action, too, and it got great results in 2024. His slider gets late drop and performed admirably, looking like an above average breaker, while his straight changeup gives him a third at least average pitch. Everything plays up for Prager because he works effectively in the zone with plus command and high pitching IQ, mixing and matching his stuff effectively to keep hitters off it. The 6'3" lefty also brings some deception in his delivery with a deep arm plunge that helps hide the ball from view, rocking back over into his over the top delivery. Already a high pitchability arm, Prager will return to school with yet another year of polish in his age-22 season and will look to frustrate SEC hitters again. He'll be a few months shy of his 23rd birthday when the 2025 draft rolls around, but he'll still have leverage as a redshirt junior and even if the signing bonus is lower, the Dallas native figures to make plenty of money through NIL.

2. SS Jalin Flores, Texas (my rank: #103)
Undrafted
Not only did Texas pry Jim Schlossnagle away from Texas A&M, they'll also unexpectedly bring back star shortstop Jalin Flores. After bringing back #1 Tanner Witt and #2 Lebarron Johnson from my draft list a year ago, Texas has three of the four top-2 returners over the past two seasons. It must be the barbecue. Flores was a very well-known prospect in the 2022 draft out of the San Antonio high school ranks, clocking in at #82 on my draft board and the #4 high school position player prospect to reach campus. He was overmatched as a freshman in 2023, struggling in a part-time role, but jumped into the lineup every day in 2024 and put up a massive season to regain most of his lost draft stock. At a listed 6'2", 210 pounds, this is a big league body with long limbs and room to add additional strength to his already physical frame. He uses his strength well in the box, effortlessly tapping his average raw power in games and making good contact against all pitch types when he stays within the zone. It's a really natural operation, one which should serve him well as he fills out and improves his approach. The latter, though, is very pressing and likely led to teams not meeting his bonus demands. Flores is an extreme free-swinger at the plate, often looking like he lacks a plan as he chases more than a third of the time and struck out (20.1%) nearly three times as often as he walked (7.6%). I'm personally a believer in his natural hitting ability and I think if the new Schlossnagle regime can get him executing a plan in the box, he has a chance to jump into the top two rounds in 2025. Interestingly, his defensive profile is the opposite in some ways. While he's not flashy and doesn't run well, his excellent body control and strong feel for the dirt has kept him at shortstop thus far, and he has a shot to continue there in pro ball. Even if he's pushed to third base by a more explosive defender, he could be well above average there with a strong arm to boot.

3. SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian (my rank: #117)
Undrafted
Jalin Flores and Anthony Silva have seen their careers parallel each other to an eerie degree. Born just two weeks apart in July 2003, they attended rival high schools just four miles apart in the San Antonio suburbs and ranked as the #6 and #4 position player prospects to reach campus from the high school Class of 2022, respectively (ranking #89 and #82). While Flores struggled as a freshman at Texas, Silva was excellent for TCU and pushed his way into the fringes of the first round conversation entering 2024. However, as Flores exploded, Silva moved in the opposite direction with a tough sophomore season, and both sophomore-eligible prospects wound up near each other yet again ranking #103 and #117 on my board, respectively. Both priced themselves out of the draft, and they'll both return to their respective schools in the Lone Star State as they rank #2 and #3 on this list. Silva, like I mentioned, was a star for the Horned Frogs in 2023, slashing .330/.416/.471 with just a 12.5% strikeout rate, but dropped to just .268/.369/.384 in 2024 with an 18.6% strikeout rate. Local evaluators noted that he looked stiffer than before. Still, Silva's track record between high school and his big freshman season is plenty enough to remain interested. At his best, he's a very disciplined hitter that makes plenty of contact, adjusting to balls all over the zone to use the whole field effectively with a line drive bat. Listed with almost the exact same measurables as Flores (6'2", 200 pounds), he also has room to grow into more strength but to this point he has not, with fringy exit velocities pointing to 5-10 home runs per season if things don't change. But with high contact rates and potential strength gains, he could easily elevate that projection in 2025. Silva's real selling point, though, is his glove. As a freshman, he glided around the dirt with smooth actions and plenty of arm strength to project as above average at the position, to the point where he really wouldn't have to hit much to provide value at the major league level. He didn't look quite as flashy in 2024, though, and if he continues on that trend he'll be forced to second or third base. Back in Fort Worth, he'll look to return to his freshman self and push back into the top couple of rounds.

4. OF Chris Stanfield, Auburn -> Louisiana State (my rank: #120)
Undrafted
With the way NIL money gets doled out nowadays, Chris Stanfield might have gotten something better than a day two draft selection – an opportunity to transfer to LSU. Stanfield is no stranger to the draft, having ranked #182 on my 2022 board out of high school in Tallahassee, spurning teams at the time so he could attend Auburn. He jumped into the starting lineup as a freshman and has performed admirably over the past two seasons, though he never put up the big numbers he hoped for and will now head west to Baton Rouge. Still, he improved his ranking (on my board at least) by 62 slots up to #120 this year and brings a very interesting skillset to the table. He was just barely eligible this year, turning 21 in July only four days before the cutoff, so he'll still be roughly age-appropriate next year. Still projectable at 6'2", it's a skinny frame that should add more power as he matures and continues to add lean strength. For now, it's a line drive approach from a simple right handed swing that beyond strength gains, could easily add pop if he just looked to turn on the ball more. For now, the exit velocities are fringy and haven't translated to much game power. He's a patient hitter at the plate, making plenty of contact when he swings but sometimes getting overly passive and getting into trouble in deep counts. Another season in college, now under the tutelage of Jay Johnson at LSU, should help him learn to leverage the ball better for more power while controlling his at bats a bit better. Stanfield is also a plus runner who will compete for the center field job in Baton Rouge, and he could continue to stick up the middle in pro ball. That takes some pressure off his bat as well, though he may not need it if he brings everything together. It's a profile that could explode this year.

5. LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa (my rank: #150)
Drafted – 19th round (pick #585), Texas Rangers
Cade Obermueller joined the names above him as a highly regarded freshman reaching campus, the #7 pitcher to do so from the high school Class of 2022 after ranking #124 on my 2022 board, and he wasn't quite ready to leave his hometown Hawkeyes after two seasons. After spending his freshman season in the bullpen, he shined in the Cape Cod League that summer (1.83 ERA, 35/11 K/BB in 19.2 IP) and jumped into Iowa's ultra talented weekend rotation alongside Brody Brecht (Rockies, CBA round) and Marcus Morgan (Phillies, 9th round). Head coach Rick Heller thought he was going to have to completely rebuild his rotation in 2025, so bringing back Obermueller is a happy surprise and a massive win. Back at school, the Iowa City native will look to prove to teams that he can stick in the rotation long term, rather than move back to the bullpen as many project. The fastball sits in the low 90's and reaches 97 in short stints with sinking and running action, while his sweeping slider dives across the plate and looks to be a plus pitch. Those two pitches right there, from an ultra low lefty sidearm slot no less, will be Obermueller's ticket to the big leagues in some capacity. However, he hasn't thrown his changeup much and his below average command regularly puts him behind in the count, so hitters are less willing to chase his quality stuff. Throw in that he's just 5'11", 160 pounds, and it's a pretty straightforward two pitch sidearm relief profile. Back on campus, Obermueller will have three boxes to check: bulk up, bring the changeup along, and throw more strikes. If he can do maybe two of those three things, someone will take a shot on him as a starter and the move to return to school will pay off. If not, it's a pretty nasty relief profile as is.

6. OF Harrison Didawick, Virginia (my rank: #152)
Undrafted
Harrison Didawick broke into the UVA lineup as a freshman but didn't hit much, then exploded in 2024 as his home run total jumped from 4 to 23 and his OPS jumped from .794 to 1.056. Still, concerns about his swing and miss tendencies kept teams from matching his high bonus demands, and he'll return to Charlottesville for his junior season, where he'll turn 22 shortly before the 2025 draft. Didawick stands out for his power, specifically his game power. Using a short left handed stroke, he has a quick trigger and ambushes pitches over the plate to send them out with great consistency, his 23 home runs last year tying Jake Gelof's (now with the Dodgers) one year old single season UVA home run record. The pure raw power is definitely closer to above average than plus, but the loft in his left handed swing and his natural ability to elevate the ball help him tap all of it. The hit tool, though, is a concern. He struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances in 2024 and came up empty on more than 30% of his swings, pointing to below average bat to ball ability. He's reasonably patient and walked in 14% of his plate appearances, a nice number, but pro pitching will attack him in the zone and it's not clear how consistently he'll be able to handle it at the upper levels and in MLB. With fringy to average defensive tools that will keep him in an outfield corner long term, potentially even left field, the pressure will be on his bat and for him to make much more consistent contact. He'll look to do just that at UVA in 2025, where he'll still be 21 through the College World Series (actually set to turn 22 the day after the championship).

7. OF Zack Stewart, Missouri State (my rank: #166)
Undrafted
The first mid-major prospect on this list, Zack Stewart not only spurned the draft but he'll actually return to Missouri State in the MVC, something becoming less and less common nowadays with power programs ravaging mid-major rosters through the transfer portal. Stewart, like Harrison Didawick, is a big time left handed power hitter and nearly matched his UVA counterpart with 22 home runs this year, but he generates that power very differently. While Didawick's power comes from his ability to loft the ball with authority, Stewart's comes from pure ferociousness. He has borderline-elite top-end exit velocities, regularly popping up over 110 MPH with electric bat speed and tremendous torque generated by his 6'2", 220 pound frame. When MVC pitchers leave the ball over the plate, he can pummel it out of any stadium to any field at any point. It's the kind of power that will certainly play with wood bats once he does move on to pro ball. Also like Didawick, swing and miss is a big problem. He also struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances in 2024 and ran swing and miss rates around 30%, just like Didawick, but in this case he was doing so against an MVC schedule as opposed to UVA's strong ACC schedule. Given the strength of the pitching he was facing, that's a big concern, and his struggles in the Cape Cod League last summer didn't help (.154/.233/.205, 34.9% K rate in eleven games). Stewart will return to Springfield hoping to cut down that strikeout rate, something he should be able to do without sacrificing power given how naturally he can rip the bat through the zone. The profile reminds me a bit of former Florida State slugger Elijah Cabell, a seventeenth round pick out of Florida State in 2021 who hit .160 over three years in the Cardinals system. Stewart does have the benefit of being left handed, and he's a year younger for his class than Cabell was with a chance to shore things up in his redshirt junior season in 2025. Again like Didawick, Stewart has fringy defensive tools and will wind up in an outfield corner.

8. SS Colby Shelton, Florida (my rank: #172)
Drafted – 20th round (pick #590), Washington Nationals
Colby Shelton, a South Carolina native who attended high school in the Tampa area, started his career at Alabama and earned Freshman All-American honors with a massive 2023 for the Crimson Tide. Coaching turbulence in Tuscaloosa led him to the transfer portal, where he was one of the most sought-after targets in the country and landed in Gainesville. Florida thought they'd only get him for one year, but while he started all 66 games at shortstop and blasted twenty home runs, swing and miss concerns kept teams from meeting his bonus demands and he'll return for his junior season. Though he'll be a true junior, he'll be the age of a college senior and will play the whole 2025 season at age-22. Shelton has average raw power, but he taps all of it in games with natural loft in his left handed swing. Though he's performed for two years against SEC schedules, blasting 45 home runs in 125 games, the approach is raw and hasn't always played up during those weekend SEC series. He's an aggressive hitter that regularly expands the zone, with below average bat to ball ability that led to a very high 26.4% strikeout rate in 2024 (up from 24.6% in 2023). That makes his overall offensive profile much closer to Harrison Didawick than Zack Stewart, though he's six-plus months older than those two and has lower top-end exit velocities. Shelton has played exclusively shortstop at Florida, though his slower feet and solid arm will likely push him to third base in pro ball, where he played at Alabama and at times on the Cape.

9. 1B Jared Jones, Louisiana State (my rank: #197)
Undrafted
Jared Jones was another famous prep to reach campus from the 2022 class, heading to Baton Rouge as a catcher. While the presence of better gloves like Hayden Travinski, Alex Milazzo, and Brady Neal meant that he never put the gear on in game action, he has carved out a name for himself as one of the premier power hitters in college baseball. After crushing fourteen home runs as a freshman in 2023, he doubled that total to 28 in 2024, tied for the seventh highest total in Division I (and third highest among underclassmen). Listed at 6'4", 255 pounds, it's not surprising to hear that Jones has a thunderous right handed bat that can drive balls out to all fields with ease (he did this as a freshman). Very few players had better top-end exit velocities than Zack Stewart, but one of them was Jones who showed 70 grade raw power. Already with 42 home runs under his belt in two seasons at LSU, he'll look to break 60 or even 70+ next year. Now while he continues the power theme, he also continues the swing and miss theme on this list. It might be a 30 grade hit tool as he whiffed on nearly 40% of his swings, an abysmal number, and struck out over a quarter of the time this year (and more than 30% of the time in SEC play and 35% on the Cape). The Atlanta-area native can get overwhelmed with premium stuff and lacks the barrel accuracy to make up for it. Now that he's moved off catcher and exclusively plays first base, where his heavy feet and below average speed fit best, there's much more pressure on his bat to play. Fortunately, he has so much power that he can send the ball out even when he gets fooled, and indeed 70 of his 118 hits for LSU over his career have gone for extra bases. He'll still be 21 on draft day next year and will look to spend 2025 cutting down the swing and miss to a stomache-ble number.

10. SS Jonathan Vastine, Vanderbilt (my rank: #202)
Undrafted
Jonathan Vastine continues the theme of former highly regarded prep prospects on this list, though he's not quite the power hitter of many names above him. He played sparingly as a Vanderbilt freshman in 2022 before taking the reins as the Dores' starting shortstop in 2023, which he has held down with solid results over the past two seasons sandwiched around a strong run through the Cape Cod League in 2023 (.323/.420/.430). Undersized at 5'11", 165 pounds, he whips the bat around pretty explosively for his size and can turn on the ball for average power to his pull side, though it's probably fringy overall. Throughout his career he has employed an approach of controlled aggression at the plate, which helped him hit well against elite pitching on the Cape as well as avoid a dip in his numbers in SEC play vs non-conference play in 2024. However, that approach unraveled at times this year and he surprised some evaluators by swinging and missing at more than a 30% clip, causing his strikeout rate to balloon over 25%. Even with his defensive value, he'll have to bring that number way down given his unremarkable power. Vastine is a strong shortstop with impressive instincts, range, and arm strength, even if he's not the most explosive defender on the dirt. That will enable him to be above average at second base, shortstop, or third base in pro ball, taking pressure off his bat as he eventually works his way up as a utility infielder. The underlying metrics on Vastine were not good in 2024 and teams noticed that, so back in Nashville he'll look to tighten things up and find a way to make more contact with a more sustainable approach at the plate. I still like the way the Florida native moves on both sides of the ball and he could be a nice senior sign next year if he makes the necessary adjustments.

Bonus: RHP Jaxon Jelkin, Houston -> ? (my rank: #134)
Drafted – 9th round (pick #263), New York Mets
Jaxon Jelkin went unsigned and would technically rank #5 on this list. There's not much information out there about his current situation, but I have a good general idea of the basics and I'll do my best to lay them out. Jelkin has bounced around a lot, beginning his career as a seldom-used reliever at Nebraska in 2022 but getting dismissed from the team two months into the season. He transferred to South Mountain JC in Phoenix for 2023 where the Dodgers drafted him in the fourteenth round, then headed to Houston in 2024. He looked sharp in seven starts for the Cougars, including a thirteen strikeout performance against BYU in March, but went down with Tommy John surgery and won't get back on the mound until mid-2025 at the earliest. The Mets drafted him in the ninth round regardless, but disputes over his medicals led to the team rescinding its offer. It's not clear what his next steps will be – he's not on Houston's 2025 roster, nor any other school's, and indications seem to be that he intends to sign as a free agent which hasn't happened yet. While everything else is a question mark, nobody doubts the arm talent. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 at peak, though it shows more running than riding life. He throws two breaking balls, led by an above average slider with sweep in addition to a solid two-plane curveball that he has leaned more and more on, and together he throws the breaking balls more than his fastball. His changeup shows excellent fade and got strong results for him in 2024, projecting as a potential above average pitch. The 6'5" righty is extremely projectable and brings great athleticism on the mound, with both his command and stuff trending in the right direction throughout his college career. If he can get healthy and build up his durability, he has legitimate MLB starting pitcher upside, and if he can find more movement on his fastball, he could be a true impact starter with four above average pitches. But questions about his makeup and medical situation may be what's keeping teams away.

Others
#213 OF Kendall Diggs, Arkansas
#215 1B Hunter Hines, Mississippi State

Saturday, October 12, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

The Guardians always draft well, and this draft was no different with the largest bonus pool of any team this year. They nailed the first pick with what I thought was the best player in the draft, then signed him for a massive discount to boot. As has become tradition in Cleveland, they spread those savings over a slew of high school arms, ultimately handing out five different signing bonuses of $1.8 million or more. Though they grabbed two college bats with their first three picks, it was a pitching-heavy class as they took eight straight arms from there. I love this class for Cleveland and I'm excited to follow it.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-1: 2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State {video}
Slot value: $10.57 million. Signing bonus: $8.95 million ($1.62 million below slot value).
My rank: #1. MLB Pipeline: #1. Baseball America: #2.
Holding the first pick of the draft with a massive eight figure slot value, the Guardians could do quite literally whatever they wanted with their first pick. Not only did they wind up bringing in Travis Bazzana, in my opinion the top overall prospect in this draft, they did it while giving him $300,000 less than the #2 and #3 overall picks because Bazzana specifically preferred Cleveland as a landing spot and willingly took a discount. Bazzana is a superstar. An Australian native, he thought he was headed for JuCo ball when Oregon State came calling, and since he stepped on campus he has played in 184 of the Beavers' 188 games. After a strong freshman season and an even better sophomore year, he went out and demolished the Cape Cod League to the tune of a .382/.474/.576 line and six home runs in 36 games – apparently someone forgot to tell him this was the best pitching he would ever face at the amateur level. Already considered a top-three prospect in the draft entering the 2024 season, he went out for his best season yet and hit an absurd .407/.568/.911 with 28 home runs and more than twice as many walks (76) as strikeouts (37) in 60 games. Bazzana is listed at a modest 6', 200 pounds, but that is the end of any modesty in this profile. His ultra strong forearms help him whip the bat around like a toothpick a la Gary Sheffield, which he deploys from a crouched stance with plenty of bat waggle. From there, it's a very compact, extremely explosive operation from the left side that leads to plus raw power which he tapped plenty in games, finishing second only to #3 overall pick Charlie Condon (Rockies) with his .911 slugging percentage. But for all the juice in his bat, Bazzana is even more notable for his on-base ability. He has an elite approach at the plate with a complete unwillingness to chase pitches out of the zone, leading to the second highest on-base percentage (.568, behind Condon's Georgia teammate and Mets sixth rounder Corey Collins) and the second most walks (76, behind A's fourth overall pick Nick Kurtz) in all of Division I. He also has plus pure bat to ball skills to go with that plus-plus approach, grading out to a potential 70 grade hit tool. Unsurprisingly, he never strikes out, neither in Corvallis nor on the Cape. In production terms, this likely means 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. He'll play second base in pro ball, where his plus speed, springy actions, and average arm will make him a potential above average defender. The Guardians are certainly buying his bat first and foremost, but don't let the bat-first label take away from a solid glove. On top of it all, he has been universally praised for his work ethic with an insatiable drive to learn, diving deep into the analytical side of the game and using technology to make himself a better hitter. It's not a perfect comp, but we could be looking at a career somewhat similar to Robinson Cano if Bazzana reaches his peak. He's a bit quicker and draws a few more walks, too. The Guardians had him skip over Low A and start at High A Lake County, where he slashed .238/.369/.396 with three home runs and a 31/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games.

CBA-36: RHP Braylon Doughty, Chaparral HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $2.57 million. Signing bonus: $2.57 million.
My rank: #32. MLB Pipeline: #36. Baseball America: #47.
They resisted it for one pick, but here begins the Guardians' steady march through all the best high school pitching they could find. Floating an arm like Braylon Doughty into the competitive balance round is already a win, but doing so and still signing him for slot value while contending with an Oklahoma State commitment is an even bigger win. Doughty has one of the most electric arms in the prep class. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 97 with high spin rates albeit with average movement. More than his velocity, he stands out most as having perhaps the best feel for spin in the prep class. His slider looks like a plus pitch with deep, late bite, and he can morph things over into a sharp, truer curveball with power and depth. Like his fastball, everything his high spin, and he can simply disassemble hitters with those two breakers. He has a changeup that is coming along nicely, though like most high school pitchers it's still in its early stages. The 6'1" righty is very balanced in his delivery, showing the ability to vary his leg kick without impacting any of his other mechanics, and that helps him pound the strike zone with above average command by prep standards. There is some moderate projection in the frame, not that he needs it when he's already touching 97, and overall it's a very well-rounded profile. You don't often see this combination of power, feel for spin, and command together. His main things to work on will be finding more life for his fastball as well as bringing his changeup along, of course while holding his command together. There is #2 starter upside here for the Southern California product.

2-48: C Jacob Cozart, North Carolina State {video}
Slot value: $1.94 million. Signing bonus: $2.05 million ($111,200 above slot value).
My rank: #52. MLB Pipeline: #42. Baseball America: #44.
It's always interesting to see how teams value college catchers, especially those with more balanced skill sets as opposed to one or two standout tools. Jacob Cozart falls into that category with a profile full of average to above average tools. Earning NC State's starting catching job as a freshman in 2022, he broke out for a big sophomore season in 2023 and elevated his stock further with strong performance with the US Collegiate National Team that summer. He entered the spring firmly in the back half of the first round conversation then proceeded to put up a First Team All-ACC junior season, though his stock slipped just a little as other catchers like Walker Janek (now Astros) and Caleb Lomavita (now Nationals) were just a bit more impressive. Cozart sets up from a wide base and creates plenty of leverage at the plate with his strong 6'3" frame, leading to above average power especially to the pull side. He's a reasonably patient hitter who walked at a very high clip in 2024, nearly doubling his walk rate to 18.6% from 10.5% a year ago, showing a strong ability to control the zone that typically comes with advanced catchers. He did swing and miss much more than evaluators were hoping for in 2024, nearing a 30% whiff rate, and his numbers were much better against his non-conference schedule than against strong pitching in ACC conference play (.250/.357/.417). That's certainly a concern going forward, though his ability to stick behind the plate certainly helps a lot. Despite his big, physical frame, he's very flexible behind the plate with the ability to get down and set a low target for pitchers, helping him steal strikes. While Cozart's pure arm strength is closer to average than plus, but he's quick out of the crouch and shows enough accuracy to label the overall throwing ability at least above average. The High Point native's overall feel for catching is better than his pure physical tools, and that gives him a shot to be an above average defensive catcher at the big league level. Overall, we can expect perhaps 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, which likely puts him closer to the bottom of a competitive lineup than the top, but true everyday catchers are hard to find and Cozart could be that. As with Travis Bazzana, the Guardians skipped him over Low A and sent him straight to High A Lake County, where he struggled to a .119/.245/.143 line and an 18/7 strikeout to walk ratio over thirteen games.

3-84: RHP Joey Oakie, Ankeny Centennial HS [IA] {video}
Slot value: $906,800. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.09 million above slot value).
My rank: #42. MLB Pipeline: #46. Baseball America: #49.
Cleveland's next prep arm is their second largest over slot signing of the draft, going more than a million dollars over slot value to coax Joey Oakie away from an Iowa commitment. His $2 million bonus was just over the slot value of the #47 pick here at #84, and he gives Cleveland a really fun arm to work with. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, but it plays above its velocity with a ton of run and sink from a low slot. His sweeping slider is his best pitch for now, a plus breaker diving across the plate with an excellent combination of power and depth. With further refinement, it could be a plus-plus pitch that makes major league hitters look silly on a regular basis. As with Braylon Doughty, his changeup is behind, but he's flashed some really good ones that make you think it could be an above average pitch in time with more consistency and refinement. It's not a traditional look from Oakie, who utilizes long arm action and a low three quarters slot to sling the ball towards the plate with a flat approach angle that creates and east-west movement profile for his stuff. That arm action can impact his command when he yanks too much across his body, though his misses typically aren't too major and he stays around the zone. The 6'3" righty is plenty physical right now and shows strong athleticism on the mound, getting down the mound well and portending to future average command combined with durability. I'm really interested to see what the Guardians do with him and if they can make him a #2 or #3 starter in the long run. And lastly, I'll add that Joey Oakie is an elite baseball name.

4-113: LHP Rafe Schlesinger, Miami {video}
Slot value: $643,500. Signing bonus: $446,900 ($196,600 below slot value).
My rank: #114. MLB Pipeline: #147. Baseball America: #148.
Back to the college ranks, Rafe Schlesinger is a really interesting prospect, especially for nearly $200,000 below slot value. A Long Island native, he has channeled Tourette Syndrome to become a legitimate pro pitching prospect. He struggled with command early in his Miami career and spent his first two years in the bullpen, running a 14.3% walk rate in the process, then jumped to the Hurricanes' rotation in 2024 and slashed that walk rate to just 6.7%. A true sidearmer, his fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 97, playing up further with nasty running and sinking life from an ultra low release point barely four feet off the ground. For context, that's about two feet lower than a typical release point with about double the running life. He leans heavily on his slider, which flashes plus when located with late sweep, but which has been very inconsistent to this point. He does not use his changeup much and it's a fringy offering at this point. Schlesinger did not always have his best stuff in 2024, at times seeing his fastball dip below 90 as he more than doubled his career high in innings, and a sub-20% strikeout rate is a bit of a red flag. But when he's on, he's a sidearming lefty working into the mid 90's with a nasty slider, and that's a tough matchup. The 6'3" lefty is throwing a lot more strikes than he did in the past, and while his ability to hit spots can be inconsistent, he's certainly trending in the right direction. It's *probably* a fastball/slider relief profile, especially in an organization as deep as Cleveland's when it comes to pitching, but I wouldn't bet against him. If the Guardians can get him built up and performing with his best stuff more consistently while bringing the changeup along and holding the command, he could be a #3 or #4 starting pitcher. In three abbreviated starts for Low A Lynchburg, he allowed four runs across 7.1 innings while striking out eleven and walking three.

5-146: RHP Aidan Major, West Virginia {video}
Slot value: $466,900. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($41,900 below slot value).
My rank: #111. MLB Pipeline: #245. Baseball America: #108.
Aidan Major is another interesting arm for Cleveland, and another divisive one. He's gotten better and better at West Virginia, including coming out of the gate at his best in 2024 with a string of strong starts early in the season. He did fade a bit down the stretch then got Tommy John surgery after the season, so he slipped a couple rounds in the draft to the Guardians in the fifth round. Major has a low 90's fastball that tops out at 97, playing up with strong riding action from a relatively low release point. He can work it into a cutter, though it's probably just an average pitch. The slider is above average with great sweep, missing plenty of bats, while he uses his average changeup more liberally than most amateur pitchers. The 5'11" righty has a stocky frame that lacks projection, repeating his compact delivery well and showing above average command at times. That command can get streaky though, and it can frequently elude him. Last year, he ran just a 6.7% walk rate as a swingman, but it jumped to 12.0% this year as he slowed down later in the year. There are some durability concerns, especially with the elbow injury, so it remains to be seen whether he can stick in the rotation long term. The balanced four pitch mix and, at times, strong command should be enough to project him as such so long as he can stay not only healthy but at 100%. It will be interesting to see how the Guardians mess with his pitch mix and locations because that fastball/slider combination can be nasty when it's performing at its best.

7-205: RHP Cameron Sullivan, Mount Vernon HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: $279,100. Signing bonus: $525,000 ($245,900 above slot value).
My rank: #144. MLB Pipeline: #118. Baseball America: #106.
Going back to the prep ranks for their third high school arm, the Guardians nearly doubled the slot value with a late fourth round-caliber signing bonus to woo Cameron Sullivan away from a Notre Dame commitment. He garnered attention by coming out throwing harder this spring, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching as high as 97 with his fastball nowadays with real zip on it. His slider shape can vary between being more cuttery, taking on a bullet shape, or getting sweepy, but it shows good power and looks at its best when he keeps it tight. His changeup is behind, so for now it's mostly the fastball/slider combination that gets him by. The 6'2" righty has a nice combination of physicality and projection, with a quick, whippy arm that portends to add further power across his arsenal as he gets stronger. It's an athletic operation on the mound, though he does reach back to reach his peak velocities with a higher effort delivery, and that can impact his command. There's significant reliever risk in this profile if his offspeed stuff can't get more consistent and he can't bring that command along, though the physicality, projection, and athleticism are hard to pass up for this relatively modest half a million dollar signing bonus.

9-265: RHP Sean Matson, Harvard {video}
Slot value: $195,700. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($20,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #290.
Last year, the Guardians used their ninth round pick on Harvard righty Jay Driver, who rewarded them with a strong season at High A Lake County this year. They did the exact same thing in 2024, grabbing Harvard righty Sean Matson in the ninth round in hopes that both can be part of the Cleveland pitching staff one day. Matson has spent most of the past three seasons in the Crimson rotation, having shined in the Cape Cod League with a 0.30 ERA and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings, before embarking on his best collegiate season yet in 2024. He's not overpowering, sitting around 90 as a starter and more comfortably in the low 90's in the bullpen, touching 93. The fastball plays way above its velocity though as a combination of massive riding life and excellent extension down the mound help it get on hitters much quicker than they expect and sneak by bats at a high rate. He had success with the pitch against mediocre competition in the Ivy League and he had even more success against excellent competition on the Cape. Matson's changeup is another weapon, coming in much slower than the typical changeup before tumbling off the table. His slider has been a bit less consistent, showing nasty sweep on the Cape but looking more like a fringy offering at school where it got hit more than you'd like by Ivy League hitters. He's also experimented with a curveball that he doesn't use much. The 6'2" righty has a sturdy frame and does a good job pounding the strike zone, giving him a chance to start if he can get more consistent with his breaking balls. If not, the fastball/changeup combination could be lethal in short stints with their unique movement profiles. This will be a fun one to follow, though he did turn 22 before the draft putting him on the older side for a junior.

10-295: RHP Chase Mobley, Durant HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $183,600. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($1.62 million above slot value).
My rank: #71. MLB Pipeline: #80. Baseball America: #84.
The Guardians reached the end of day two with a ton of bonus pool money left over, so you knew a splash was coming at some point. They unloaded in the tenth round, singing yet another prep arm in Chase Mobley to a massive bonus roughly the slot value of the #51 overall pick, mid-second round, so that he shouldn't attend Florida State. Mobley has an electric right arm and has the chance to be the best prep of the class for the Guardians. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but can reach 99 at peak with running action. His slider took a step forward in 2024 as he added power to a pitch that already had nice depth, giving it a shot to become an above average pitch in time if he can tighten it up further. Unlike the other preps in this class, Mobley has an advanced changeup that can show true off the table action when he gets it right, giving it a shot to become plus in time. His mechanics divided some evaluators, though, as his short arm circle features an elbow stab in the back as he leans back over his drive foot. From there, his arm can be a bit late going forward with a three quarters slot. The overall delivery is fairly raw, but Mobley's arm strength is so explosive that you really won't find much like it around the country in the high school ranks. The 6'5" righty is tremendously projectable and should throw with less effort as he gets stronger and works with Cleveland's development staff, with his youth (only turned 18 a month before the draft) working in his favor as well. Despite the funky arm, he does stay around the zone pretty well and could have average command with further development.

14-415: OF Ryan Cesarini, St. Joseph's {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This is a really nice sleeper profile in the middle of day three. A fairly unheralded recruit out of the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area, he spent his freshman season at St. Joe's on the bench but once he seized playing time for the Hawks, he never let it go, slashing .387/.468/.622 with sixteen home runs and 28 stolen bases in 84 games over the past two seasons. In fact, he was at his very best right at the end of the season, because after going 0-5 in an opening round loss to VCU at the A-10 Tournament, he went 12-18 with three doubles, five home runs, and just two strikeouts over his final four games in Tysons Corner. That's a .667/.714/1.667 line if you're keeping track. Listed at 5'10", 205 pounds, Cesarini is not a big guy put backs plenty of strength and athleticism into his powderkeg frame. It's a compact left handed swing that helps him make a ton of contact against unremarkable A-10 pitching, with just a 13.1% career strikeout rate that reached a career low 11.8% in 2024. Though he only hit three home runs in his first 28 games in 2024, those five in his final four brought him to eight on the season and he shows more pop than you'd expect from a smaller guy, with impressive top-end exit velocities that help him project for potentially average power. Obviously he's untested against higher level pitching, but that's a really, really nice combination of contact and power for this part of the draft. Beyond that, Cesarini is a plus runner with a shot to stick in center field, giving him potentially average or better grades in all five tools. Honestly, this is one of my favorite under the radar picks that could seem like org depth to the naked eye. Indeed he performed very well in a small sample at Low A Lynchburg, slashing .283/.370/.543 with three stolen bases and a 10/7 strikeout to walk ratio in thirteen games.

Monday, October 7, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

With their massive bonus pool, the Reds were essentially able to pull in two first round picks by floating Tyson Lewis down to the second round in exchange for a late first round bonus. There was an interesting theme here in which four of the first five college players they drafted were very well-known prospects as preps, with three of them even earning first round consideration at points in their high school careers. The Reds also valued bats that could stick up the middle and provide defensive value, something they've done in the past as well.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-2: RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $9.79 million. Signing bonus: $9.25 million ($535,000 below slot value).
My rank: #5. MLB Pipeline: #6. Baseball America: #4.
The Reds are no stranger to successfully drafting pitchers extremely early, with names such as Rhett Lowder (#7, 2023), Nick Lodolo (#7, 2019), and Hunter Greene (#2, 2017) all gracing their current rotation. Chase Burns, meanwhile, has a chance to be the best of an already strong group. A well-known prep out of the Nashville area in 2021, his triple digit fastball placed him squarely in the top fifty conversation that year but he ultimately stayed home to attend Tennessee. His talent was immediately clear as he put up a huge freshman season in 2022, even earning National Freshman of the Year honors from some outlets, then put up another strong sophomore season in 2023 even if his ERA was a bit higher. Already a clear first round prospect, Burns rocked the college baseball world after the season by transferring to Wake Forest, where he hoped to leverage the program's famed pitching lab to push his game to even the next level. The stuff came out even crisper than before and his 191 strikeouts led Division I by a large margin, thirty ahead of White Sox #5 overall pick Hagen Smith (Arkansas). Burns is nothing short of a monster on the mound. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has touched as high as 102 in the past, coming in with big riding life from an over the top angle and strong extension. His slider is an absolutely filthy offering in the upper 80's with a lethal combination of power and sweep, a pitch he could tell you was coming and you could still never touch it. Burns also added a power curveball this year that he used less than his slider, but which still projects as plus with strong results. Lastly, he doesn't use it much but he's begun to work in a hard changeup around 90 to give lefties another look. While the operation looked a bit stiff in high school, he's smoothed out his delivery in Knoxville and Winston-Salem and now pounds the strike zone with average command and above average control, aggressively attacking hitters to force his way ahead in counts. A high-level competitor, he brings a ton of energy to the mound and will never back down from the moment. If there's one blemish, it's that his delivery and over the top arm path lack deception, which can lead to his fastball getting hit over the plate. He only allowed 32 runs all season, but he served up fourteen long balls. If the 6'3" righty can improve his fastball command just a tick or two, he has a shot to be the ace of a rotation full of top ten picks.

2-51: SS Tyson Lewis, Millard West HS [NE] {video}
Slot value: $1.8 million. Signing bonus: $3.05 million ($1.25 million above slot value).
My rank: #29. MLB Pipeline: #39. Baseball America: #43.
After saving half a million on Chase Burns, the Reds essentially leveraged that into another first round pick by signing Tyson Lewis to roughly the slot value for the #29 pick here at #51, steering him away from an Arkansas commitment. While MLB Pipeline and Baseball America's rankings may see that as an overpay, I'm a big fan of the pick and I think he has a chance to be the next star in what has become a long line of talented Reds infielders. A native of tiny Yutan, Nebraska, just past the ever-creeping sprawl of Omaha's cookie cutter HOA developments, he transferred from Yutan High School to local powerhouse Millard West High School in the suburbs to get more exposure. First and foremost, Lewis stands out for his athleticism. He has, without exaggeration, some of the most explosive hands in the class that help him fling the bat through the zone with ease while doing damage all over the plate. When he stays within himself, he shows easy average power, though he can get caught trying to do too much and that can artificially lengthen his swing. As he fills out his projectable 6'2" frame, he should grow into above average power, giving him a shot at 20+ home runs per season. The hit tool has been less consistent, though he is trending in the right direction and the Reds are confident he'll continue to do so. Meanwhile, Lewis shines in the dirt with quick feet and plus speed that give him a great shot to stick at shortstop in the long run. He'll have to clean up his overall glovework, but the physical tools are all there and again, the Reds are confident he can do so. If it all comes together, he has a shot to become a potential 20-20 shortstop. You can teach all kinds of skills but you can't teach the way this man moves on the diamond.

CBB-71: RHP Luke Holman, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $1.11 million. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($113,100 below slot value).
My rank: #57. MLB Pipeline: #45. Baseball America: #40.
These last two Reds picks just go to show the unpredictability of the draft, as Baseball America had Luke Holman ranked ahead of Tyson Lewis, but Lewis went twenty picks earlier and signed for triple the money. Holman followed a similar path to Chase Burns as a well-known prep out of the Reading, Pennsylvania area who had interest in the top five rounds but made it to campus at Alabama instead. Spending 2022 as a reliever, he turned in a strong season in the Crimson Tide rotation in 2023 and like Burns, transferred to a powerhouse program, though he went to LSU amid coaching drama in Tuscaloosa. In Baton Rouge, Holman came out of the gate absolutely untouchable with 25.2 consecutive scoreless innings, including a dozen strikeout performance against Texas and six hitless innings against Xavier (a feat he later repeated against Kentucky in the SEC Tournament). While he didn't quite hold that pace against better hitters in the SEC, he was one of the few power conference pitchers to turn in ace-like numbers in a year where offense was up across the board and it felt like everyone was playing in Coors Field, and the Reds are thrilled to get him for a much lower signing bonus than many expected. Despite the performance, the stuff doesn't jump off the page. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with big riding and running life, negated just a bit by a high release point. He throws two breaking balls, mostly leaning on his above average slider with nice late tilt while adding a fringy curveball with truer 12-6 break. Holman doesn't use his changeup much and it's below average. The 6'4" righty stands out most for his fastball command, which helps him elicit chases at a higher rate than most fastballs and limit hard contact. He's gotten better at commanding his offspeed stuff as well, and overall he has run walk rates under 10% in all three of his collegiate seasons. Holman is a smart pitcher who controls at bats and could move quickly through the minors, though his ceiling may be a bit limited to that of a #3 or #4 starter given the lack of true strikeout stuff.

3-87: OF Mike Sirota, Northeastern {video}
Slot value: $865,800. Signing bonus: $863,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #64. MLB Pipeline: #50. Baseball America: #70.
The Reds are buying low on Mike Sirota in hopes that he turns things around and returns to form. One of the best hitters in the Northeast as a sophomore, he eased concerns about the level of pitching he faced in the CAA by slashing .281/.395/.430 over 41 games and two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Entering 2024, he was considered a consensus first round prospect and even heard his name thrown around in top ten conversations as the best mid major prospect in the country. Unfortunately, 2024 did not go as planned as pitchers completely stopped throwing to him, and his batting average dropped from .344 to .298 and his slugging percentage from .674 to .513. When Sirota is going right, you'd be hard pressed to find a better all-around player in the country. Listed at 6'3", 190 pounds, he has an ideal frame packed with lean strength and with projection remaining. Like Tyson Lewis, he has elite hands in the box to unleash a lightning quick bat, enabling him to see the ball deep and spray the ball around the field with authority. With a bit of an uppercut, he can make his average power play up in games and he blasted eighteen home runs in 2023, back when he was getting pitches to hit. Sirota is an extremely patient hitter as well, running elite chase rates and walking in 23% of his plate appearances in 2024, helping him finish a 143 game Northeastern career with an impressive .457 on-base percentage. While he doesn't chase, the primary hole in Sirota's game has always been swing and miss. He has run higher strikeout rates than you'd like in the CAA, even in 2023 when he was at his best, and also struck out 23.7% of the time in his two years on the Cape. You can sneak high heat by him and he'll swing through high quality breaking balls in the zone, so if you know how to pitch him, you can get him out. Not only will Sirota have to regain the form he had in 2023, he'll also need to remedy the in-zone swing and miss that has always been an issue. Defensively, the Queens native has the potential to be a plus defender in center field with his plus speed and plus arm. That takes pressure off the bat and gives him a nice floor as a glove-first fourth outfielder. The Reds think they can get him back to his old self, where he entered the 2024 season with projections of hitting 20-25 home runs per season with high, walk-driven on-base percentages. If you squint, and if he can make a little more contact, you can see a right handed Brandon Nimmo-like package here.

4-117: 2B Peyton Stovall, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $618,800. Signing bonus: $625,000 ($6,200 above slot value).
My rank: #85. MLB Pipeline: #77. Baseball America: #123.
Continuing a bit of a theme, Peyton Stovall was also considered a top prospect for the 2021 draft out of high school. In fact, Stovall was considered an even better prospect than both Burns and Holman that year following a massive senior season at Haughton High School outside of Shreveport (alma mater of Dak Prescott) in which he torched northern Louisiana pitching. Despite being firmly in the first round conversation, he held firm on his commitment to Arkansas and as the #25 player on my board, he ranked as the top position player and #2 overall prospect reaching campus that year behind UCLA's (and now the A's') Gage Jump. A starter in Fayetteville from day one, he battled nagging injuries throughout his time there and didn't quite break out until this year, where he re-established himself as an early round draft prospect. Stovall doesn't have a standout tool, but the whole is greater than the sum of his parts. He gets to balls all over the zone with a simple left handed swing and adjustable hands, totaling out to above average bat to ball ability. Combine that with a patient approach and it's an above average hit tool, though his strikeout rate has been just a bit higher than you'd expect given the high contact and low chase rates. While he's not huge at 5'11", his strong pitch recognition helps him turn balls when he needs to and tap his average power in games, giving his overall offensive profile a nice projection for something like 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages. Stovall is not the most explosive athlete with fringy defensive tools across the board, but he's gritty in the dirt and gets the job done with a steady glove and willingness to go all out for balls in the hole. That gives him every chance to stick at second base and potentially fill in at third base in a reserve role, though his arm would be stretched there. This is a well-rounded profile that strikes you as the kind you'd like to have in your dugout. In his brief pro debut, he slashed .235/.355/.333 with more walks (9) than strikeouts (7) in sixteen games for Low A Daytona.

5-150: LHP Tristan Smith, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $448,700. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($151,300 above slot value).
My rank: #151. MLB Pipeline: #73. Baseball America: #81.
And what do you know, we have another former top high school prospect, this time from the 2022 class. Tristan Smith was considered one of the better high school pitchers in the country that year and had his name on the fringes of the first round conversation, but he wound up at Clemson where he put up two solid seasons. The profile is pretty similar to what it was two years ago. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, albeit with average movement. His slider is his best pitch, flashing plus with sharp two plane bite, while his above average changeup was one of the better left handed cambios in this class. The 6'2" lefty creates some deception with a crossfire delivery that makes it difficult to pick up the ball, but he can also be a bit of a stiff mover. His fastball command is subpar at this point and makes it difficult to get ahead and stay ahead in counts, running a walk rate over 15% for his career. Interestingly, he does command the slider well which further plays into its projection as a plus pitch. There are clear things to work on here, notably the fastball command and fastball movement profile, but there are also clear separators here as a physical lefty with two above average offspeed pitches. He also showed very well against elite competition in the Cape Cod League last summer (3.29 ERA, 38/14 K/BB in 27.1 innings) and has a long track record of performance going back to his prep days. After signing for fourth round money as a draft-eligible sophomore, Smith has a chance to pitch his way into a mid-rotation starting role if he can figure out his fastball, with a fallback as a three pitch lefty reliever.

8-239: RHP Luke Hayden, Indiana State {video}
Slot value: $217,400. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($19,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #400.
Luke Hayden is a semi-local pick for the Reds. Having grown up just over one hundred miles west of Cincinnati in in Bloomington, Indiana, where he attended Edgewood High School in nearby Ellettsville, he stayed home for school and spent two years at Indiana University. He struggled there with an ERA over seven and a WHIP nearing two, then transferred to Indiana State for a much better junior season. He committed to transfer once more to LSU in 2025, but took the Reds offer here in the eighth round instead. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97-98 at peak, showing high spin but overall average movement. Like Smith, his go-to offspeed is an above average slider with hard, late snap, a pitch which can get both lefties and righties out. Without much of a changeup, combined with a high effort delivery that leads to below average command, he projects as a reliever in pro ball. In that role, the fastball velocity could climb even higher to offset the lack of life and he could pitch more consistently off of his slider. In four relief appearances for Low A Daytona, he allowed three runs (two earned) over five innings while striking out six and walking two.

10-299: C Yanuel Casiano, Albergue Olimpico Academy [PR] {video}
Slot value: $182,200. Signing bonus: $122,500.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #438.
In Yanuel Casiano, the Reds have picked up the single youngest player in the entire draft. The only player in the class born in 2007, he won't even turn 18 until just before his first spring training. Previously a UCF commit, he will instead take his time and move slowly through the Reds system. Casiano is a glove-first catcher who has impressed evaluators with plus arm strength and quickness out of the crouch, though the accuracy isn't quite there yet and his throws can pull infielders off the bag. He's a solid defender behind the plate who as you'd expect has lots of work to do to refine things, but among his age group peers, he's exactly where he needs to be to become a big league caliber catcher. The bat is a bit behind. He hasn't performed much against high level showcase competition and didn't send evaluators home thinking they had the next Mike Piazza on their hands this spring. There's some pop to the pull side, but not enough to be a separator. The Reds see an extremely young kid who should have only been a high school junior last year and expect significant strength gains as he matures, with a sturdy 6' frame that could carry plenty of muscle in time. If all goes well, he has a chance to be a glove-first backup catcher with enough power to keep pitchers honest.

15-449: RHP Jordan Little, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Jordan Little may have ran an 8.58 ERA over the course of his three year college career, but the Reds see big stuff and think they can get the most out of it. He began his career at East Carolina, where he made just five appearances over two seasons and allowed eight runs over 2.2 innings, then transferred to Virginia Tech. He got blown up at times and ran a 6.66 ERA, but that number drops to 2.74 if you remove his three worst appearances out of 21 and he looked as sharp as anybody on the roster when he was at his best. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 96 and coming in with hard running action from a lower release point. That gives him a real above average fastball, one which should continue to chew up bats in pro ball. He actually throws his slider more than his fastball, a big breaking two-plane breaker in the low 80's that missed a ton of bats in 2024 despite its high usage. Little is athletic on the mound and despite his name brings plenty of projection in his ideal 6'4" frame. There is some jerk in his delivery, but the command is actually pretty solid and his poor results were more a matter of inconsistent feel for his stuff rather than inconsistent command. He's likely a reliever all the way, though with two above average pitches, projection remaining, and solid command for a reliever, he has a chance to earn meaningful innings in Cincinnati.

Sunday, October 6, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

The Rockies usually have fun drafts, and this one was no different. While they played the bonus pool fairly straightforward, it was a class full of dynamic profiles brining a diverse array of tools to the table. They used their first two picks on arguably the top overall prospect and one of the nastiest pitchers in the class, focusing on hitters early (four of their first five picks) and pitchers later (twelve of their last sixteen picks). They were also the only team not to draft any high school players, prioritizing the near term (though the Yankees and Cardinals did not sign the one high schooler they each drafted).
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-3: OF Charlie Condon, Georgia {video}
Slot value: $9.07 million. Signing bonus: $9.25 million ($179,200 above slot value).
My rank: #2. MLB Pipeline: #2. Baseball America: #1.
Charlie Condon's ascent is nothing short of remarkable. A talented high school player, he did not receive a scholarship at Georgia and instead walked on with the Bulldogs. He didn't play at all as a freshman in 2022, but put the work in and exploded for a massive redshirt freshman season in 2023 in which he slashed .386/.484/.800 with 25 home runs in 56 games and was named National Freshman of the Year. Somehow, 2024 was even better as he put up an unbelievable season, slashing .433/.556/1.009 with 37 home runs in 60 games, winning the Golden Spikes Award and leading Division I in three of those four marks sans on-base percentage (third in D-I). Condon is an imposing presence in the box to say the least, clocking in at a lean and strong 6'6", and as you'd expect, he produces plus-plus raw power. It's a simple right handed swing and it's all natural – natural strength, natural leverage, natural loft. That helps him tap his prodigious power more consistently than anybody else, never selling out and mitigating the swing and miss problems that often occur with these towering power hitters. Condon has a professional approach at the plate and makes plenty of contact, going with the pitches he gets and keeping his strikeouts way down. It's a power-contact combination rarely seen in amateur baseball, giving him a chance for 35-40 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Now imagine that at Coors Field, and that's a scary thought. He's earned comps to Kris Bryant, which are apt, while Giancarlo Stanton could be another if he fills out a little more (though the swing is a little different). The Atlanta native has played all over the field, and while he doesn't necessarily shine at any one position in particular, he surprised evaluators with his athleticism this season and he could be solid average in right field. From Charlie Blackmon to Nolan Arenado to Troy Tulowitzki, the Rockies have a long line of great hitters to come through their system, and Condon has a chance to be as good as any of them as the heir to the retiring Blackmon. It wasn't such smooth sailing upon an aggressive assignment to High A Spokane to begin his pro career, slashing .180/.248/.270 with one home run and a 34/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games, but he'll get it figured out.

CBA-38: RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa {video}
Slot value: $2.45 million. Signing bonus: $2.7 million ($247,800 above slot value).
My rank: #20. MLB Pipeline: #21. Baseball America: #28.
Brody Brecht is a really, really interesting arm with clear strengths and clear weaknesses. A three sport superstar athlete in high school who played football and ran track in addition to pitching, he earned top three rounds interest at the time but was dead set on attending Iowa. Brecht actually played wide receiver for the Hawkeyes football program and caught nine receptions for 87 yards as a sophomore, but he gave up the gridiron to focus on the diamond shortly after that. Meanwhile, his stuff got nastier and nastier on the mound and by 2024 he had one of the best two pitch punches in college baseball. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has reached 101 in the past, though the shape is average and leans towards the cutter side. His best pitch, and indeed one of the best pitches in all of college baseball, is a plus-plus slider that reaches 92 with hard, late, two-plane bite to miss bats at a ridiculous rate. When he executes its location, it's downright untouchable, and he leans heavily on it. Brecht has scrapped his curveball to focus on the slider, and he also occasionally adds a solid splitter that performed well when he pulled it out in 2024. Right now, the Des Moines-area native has below average command, though he has improved his walk rate all three years in Iowa City from 22.3% to 18.4% to 14.2%. That's still way too high, and Brecht often either leaves balls over the middle of the plate or misses his spot entirely with non-competitive pitches. It's a pretty free and easy delivery but he just doesn't repeat the release point as well as he could, and having explosive stuff like he does certainly doesn't help in that regard. The stuff is great enough that that shouldn't matter too much, but he has to at least get ahead in counts and keep the ball near the zone. I'm personally bullish in this regard, as he got stronger as the season went along and was at his best in late season starts against Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Michigan. The 6'4" righty has filled out nicely at Iowa and now looks the part of a durable starting pitcher with tremendous athleticism, with command really being the only thing holding him back from starting. If he can get the walk rate down to around 10-12%, he could be an impact starter in Colorado, as I expect the splitter to come along naturally as he throws it more. If the command doesn't improve, the fastball/slider combination might be untouchable out of the bullpen and he could be Colorado's next closer.  

2-42: OF Jared Thomas, Texas {video}
Slot value: $2.22 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($224,700 below slot value).
My rank: #45. MLB Pipeline: #60. Baseball America: #58.
Jared Thomas is a fun one whose profile has shifted around a bit, but however the projections stack up, the man can flat out play ball. A starter from the day he stepped on campus at Texas, he hit his way into the leadoff spot as a freshman by spraying the ball around the field and refusing to strike out. Coming into 2024, he shifted his approach a bit and started turning on the ball, which helped him jump from four to sixteen home runs, bump his slugging percentage from .484 to .635, and also bump his strikeout rate from 15.2% to 20.6%. Thomas has very strong bat to ball ability with a loose left handed swing and really adjustable hands that help him get to balls all over the zone. The new approach in 2024 meant he was more aggressive outside the zone didn't get to every ball that he got to in 2023, but with the offensive numbers up across the board, it was worth the tradeoff. A draft-eligible sophomore who only turned 21 shortly before the draft, he has projection remaining on his 6'2", 190 pound frame that could lead to more power down the line. The power is average for now, but he makes so much contact that it plays up and it will especially do so in Coors Field, where he may not need to sell out as much to reach it in the bigs. If he can get a little more patient at the plate, he has a chance to be a great all-around hitter. The Texas native is a well above average defender at first base with much more agility than you typically see there, and in 2024 he showed well in center field which will give him more avenues to big league playing time. At Coors, he projects as a 10-20 home run hitter with good batting averages/on-base percentages and the ability to play anywhere lefties can play, with a utility fallback if any part of his offensive game fails to play up. So far in eight games, it is playing up and he hit .333/.389/.545 with two home runs and a 7/3 strikeout to walk ratio for Low A Fresno.

3-77: C Cole Messina, South Carolina {video}
Slot value: $1.01 million. Signing bonus: $1.01 million.
My rank: #83. MLB Pipeline: #100. Baseball America: #72.
Cole Messina became a fan favorite in Columbia, and if he keeps hitting in pro ball, he could quickly become a fan favorite in Denver. Though he didn't play much as a freshman, he broke out for a big sophomore season in 2023 then blasted off for an even bigger junior season in 2024 as one of the best hitting catchers in the country. "Moose" is a burly guy at a listed 6', 230 pounds, and he uses that strength to produce plus raw power that he tapped for 38 home runs in 121 games over the past two seasons. It's a high handset in which he starts with the bat laying down his back, which he then pulls back into a hitting position before walloping the ball with a big right handed hack. Messina does not get cheated, with a modern approach oriented towards pulling the ball in the air with authority. He has a strong approach at the plate, though with all the movement in his swing, there are swing and miss concerns as he struck out 23.4% of the time in 2024. While that didn't impede him from hitting .330/.453/.616 in conference against elite SEC pitching, he's going to have to get more comfortable against quality stuff in the zone as pitchers get better and better at finding the holes in his swing. Messina will also need to watch his conditioning and maintain the quickness in his hands as he ages, or he'll need to simplify his setup. Behind the plate, he has a decent glove and gets the job done albeit without flashy tools. The Charleston-area native is a non-athlete and well below average runner who would be limited to first base or DH if he ever moved out from behind the plate, but most believe he can stick. If anything, Messina is universally praised for his makeup as an elite competitor and a tremendously hard worker who will do everything he can to get better, help his teammates get better, and help his team win. That's great anywhere but especially from a catcher. Aggressively assigned to High A Spokane, he didn't do much in his pro debut slashing .140/.232/.220 with one home run and an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio over seventeen games.

4-106: SS Blake Wright, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $689,600. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($439,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #395.
Blake Wright was one of the top seniors available this year and the Rockies pulled him off the board a bit earlier than expected, getting a nice discount in the process as he signed for seventh round money. A big sophomore season put him on the map in 2022 and he came into 2023 a solid draft prospect, but had a down season and returned to Clemson. Back to his old self in 2024, he doubled his previous career high in home runs with 22, all while hitting .340 and helping Clemson host its first Super Regional since 2010. This is a very metrically appealing bat. It's average power from an average frame, using a strong right handed swing to muscle balls out to all fields and giving him a good shot at double digit home run totals in the majors, especially in Coors. Not just that, he makes a ton of contact both inside and outside the zone, with strong pitch recognition and the ability to get his hands where they need to go. Wright is an aggressive hitter who walked in just 5.6% of his plate appearances in 2024, instead preferring to hit the first pitch he likes and generally doing a good job of it. Colorado will look to rein in that approach in pro ball where it will get exploited more, and if they can do that successfully, his combination of above average bat to ball and average power could really play. A third baseman at Clemson who held down the position for the last two seasons (and blocking superstar Billy Amick [now a Twin] in the process, indirectly causing him to transfer to Tennessee for the third base opportunity), Wright has average defensive tools that will make him serviceable at first base, second base, and third base in pro ball. That helps him project well as a utility infielder/platoon bat for the Rockies, with the potential for more if he can cut down the chases.

5-139: RHP Lebarron Johnson Jr., Texas {video}
Slot value: $500,000. Signing bonus: $500,000.
My rank: #171. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #189.
Lebarron Johnson, like Blake Wright, is a senior sign who drew draft interest last year (well, technically a redshirt junior who sat out his freshman season). Ranking #106 on my draft board last year, he was the second best unsigned draft prospect returning to school and took a slight step back in 2024, but still showed well enough to bring in a half million dollar signing bonus. Johnson sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 98, then adds a pair of hard secondaries. He has a power slider that approaches 90 in its own right, while his splitter is another power pitch. Everything comes with the added aspect of an ultra high release height, as he extends well above his 6'4" frame to release the ball nearly seven feet off the ground. It's no easy at bat watching the ball come straight down on you, and it's even harder when the pitcher is pushing 90 with his slider. At this point, he commands his fastball better than his offspeed stuff and his walk rate increased from 10.5% in 2023 to 12.8% in 2024, something he'll have to clean up if he wants to remain a starter in pro ball. He was fairly streaky in that regard this year as well, throwing some gems against Cal Poly, Washington, TCU, and Kansas but giving up four or more runs in seven of his seventeen appearances. When he's at his best, the Jacksonville native looks like a top one hundred talent, and he'll hope to find more of that in pro ball. If anything, Johnson could use something softer in his arsenal so hitters have a harder time gearing up for the mid 90's.

6-168: LHP Konner Eaton, George Mason {video}
Slot value: $378,900. Signing bonus: $378,900.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #180. Baseball America: #344.
One of the most electric arms to come out of George Mason University in Northern Virginia, and he brings really sneaky upside if Colorado can get his development right. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96-97 with nice riding life from a three quarters slot, and he leans heavily on it to chew up bats. His slider has a chance to become a plus pitch in time, though he lacks consistent feel for it and it either backs up on him or he spikes it regularly. He shows a pretty solid changeup, too, but like his slider he doesn't have consistent feel for it. You have to imagine that Colorado will up his usage of his offspeed stuff as one of the first things they work on, which could really elevate his profile if he can land them. Command has been an issue for Eaton, who can yank his release point and struggles to hit spots, especially with his offspeed stuff, and for that reason he brings plenty of release risk. The upside is really tantalizing though as a lefty up to 97 with what could be a dastardly slider in time. He was nails in nine relief appearances in the minors, too, allowing just one run over eleven innings while striking out sixteen and walking three, mostly at Low A Fresno with one appearance at High A Spokane.

12-348: LHP Everett Catlett, Georgetown {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #268.
Everett Catlett didn't do much over his first three seasons at Georgetown with a 6.90 ERA and a 36/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 44.1 innings against mediocre competition, including missing the 2022 season with shoulder issues. However, he raised his profile by dominating in the New England Collegiate Baseball League over the following summer and jumped from Mystic, CT to Orleans, MA to pitch in the Cape Cod League last August, then carried that success over to a strong 2024 in DC. Catlett is a towering 6'7" lefty with a funky low three quarters delivery, creating a unique look for hitters. The fastball sits in the low 90's but has been up to 96 in short stints, showing a ton of running life to stay off barrels. He has an average slider with nice tilt to miss bats, while his hard upper 80's changeup gets nice fading action when he grips it right. It's a nice three pitch mix aided by a deceptive delivery and solid command, giving him a chance to be a back-end starter if all goes right. Having turned 22 shortly after the draft, Catlett probably projects better as a long reliever whose stuff could tick up in short stints and give hitters fits as a very different look from whoever he follows out of the bullpen.

20-588: RHP Hunter Omlid, Arizona State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $50,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Hunter Omlid comes to Colorado via a circuitous route around the interior West. He grew up in the small town of Hamilton, Montana, about forty miles south of Missoula in the southwestern corner of the state. He stayed relatively close to home to begin his college career, suiting up for Boise State back in 2020 to strong results. Moving south to Central Arizona JC in 2021, he was one of the better JuCo pitchers in the region that year and moved on to Grand Canyon for 2022 and 2023, but only to middling results. Moving on to his fifth school in four years, and his third in the state of Arizona, he was a key cog in the Arizona State bullpen with a sharp 54/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 37.2 innings. Omlid has a low to mid 90's fastball that plays up due to big riding action and some run as well. He throws a big sweeping slider that can confound hitters, and when it's all working, he can be downright dominant as evidenced by an eleven strikeout gem against Utah Valley in March. Omlid's stuff does play better in short stints, and given his advanced age (he turned 24 in May), he'll almost certainly be a reliever for the Rockies. With decent command, he has a chance to move quickly towards Colorado.

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Oakland A's

Full list of draftees

Oakland's final draft before it becomes Sacramento was an interesting one. They saved almost $1.4 million on their first pick, then spread the savings around with sizable over slot bonuses in the second, competitive balance, fourth, sixth, seventh, and twelfth rounds. Teams draft players at the same position all the time, but doing so at first base is a bit trickier. That's what the A's did with their first two picks in Nick Kurtz and Tommy White, so one is going to have to DH and then the bottom of the defensive spectrum will be used up for the foreseeable future should both picks work out. After those two big power bats, though, it's a very diverse class with a whole bunch of different profiles, from extreme contact hitters to toolsy types to glove-first future utility infielders. 
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-4: 1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $8.37 million. Signing bonus: $7 million ($1.37 million below slot value).
My rank: #7. MLB Pipeline: #7. Baseball America: #8.
It wasn't the smoothest ride, but Nick Kurtz fell out of contention for, then worked his way back into, a top five selection then provided the A's with some savings by signing between the slot values of the #6 and #7 picks. Kurtz put up two massive seasons at Wake Forest in 2022 and 2023, then entered 2024 as a frontrunner in the conversation for the first overall pick. However, he started slow and was hitting just .217 in late March, having also missed time with a shoulder injury. That slump was short lived, though, and from March 31st to April 16th he hit .526/.647/1.737 with 14 home runs and just four strikeouts in a ten game stretch to thrust himself back to where he should be. Kurtz is a massive human being standing at a listed 6'5", 240 pounds, and he looks every bit of it. He effortlessly generates light tower power that has helped him blast 61 home runs and slug .725 in three years in Winston-Salem, knocking the ball out to all fields with a loose, easy swing that lets his strength do the work. He's also an extremely patient hitter that doesn't get much to hit anyways, walking in 30% of his plate appearances and leading all of Division I by walking 78 times in 54 games despite missing time with the shoulder injury. His loose hands help him make pretty good contact too, so when you combine a plus approach with average pure bat to ball and plus-plus power, you get a potential 40 homer, .400 on-base hitter at the big league level. While he is limited to first base, he's a much better athlete than you'd expect given his size and frame and was an accomplished high school basketball player. That helps him glide around the base at first, saving his infielders from errors and scooping up hot shots that appeared destined for the right field corner. While this may have been a bit of a surprising pick with names like JJ Wetherholt, Jac Caglianone, and Hagen Smith still on the board, he has a chance to be the best hitter in this class. Indeed, he had zero trouble with the transition to pro pitching and hit .368/.520/.763 with four home runs and a 10/12 strikeout to walk ratio over a dozen game sample between Low A Stockton and AA Midland. He could be in the majors next season, much like 2023 first rounder Jacob Wilson.

2-40: 3B Tommy White, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $2.33 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($667,900 above slot value).
My rank: #31. MLB Pipeline: #20. Baseball America: #30.
If you follow college baseball at all, you know all about Tommy Tanks. If you don't, then I can spell out one of the most famous players in college baseball. A highly regarded draft prospect at IMG Academy in Florida, he turned down top three round interest to head to NC State. He hit the ground running in Raleigh with a home run barrage for the ages, eventually finishing his freshman season with 27 home runs and a .362/.425/.757 line. White leveraged that success into an opportunity to transfer to LSU, where he continued the success over the last two seasons and won a National Championship in 2023. In three years in college, he finished a .359/.426/.706 hitter with 64 home runs. White is a star, and he carries that star swagger with him everywhere he goes. He has ridiculous hands that whip the bat through the zone at lightning speed, getting the barrel to balls all over and outside the zone with remarkable consistency. His ultra strong wrists help him produce plus raw power that he taps every bit of in games due to the sheer quantity of barrels he finds, with the chance to hit thirty home runs annually. With his adjustable hands and strong bat to ball ability, he makes a ton of contact and keeps his strikeouts down, a rarity for a power hitter of his caliber. However, White is also extremely aggressive and chases almost a third of the time, leading to ultra low walk rates. That makes him a polarizing prospect, especially as a right handed hitter, with major questions as to whether he'll be able to continue making contact at such a high rate against better and better pitching. While there's no question that his ability in the box is nothing short of special, he will likely have to tone down that approach as he works towards the majors. Long a first baseman, he moved over to third base in 2024 and handled himself admirably, but he didn't do quite enough to change his long term projections of moving back to first base in pro ball. White has the bat to play anywhere, though it does set up an interesting conundrum with first rounder Nick Kurtz. If he gets a little more selective at the plate, he could star in the middle of Oakland's (Sacramento's? Las Vegas'?) lineup the same way he did in Baton Rouge. White hit .224/.309/.299 with two home runs and a 21/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games for Low A Stockton, so he'll need to make the adjustment next year.

CBB-73: LHP Gage Jump, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $1.08 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($923,100 above slot value).
My rank: #65. MLB Pipeline: #62. Baseball America: #65.
Gage Jump will join his LSU teammate in heading west, and like Tommy White, he'll sign for well above slot value with a bonus fit for roughly the #47 pick. Jump, like White, was an extremely highly regarded prep prospect and actually had a chance to go in the first round, but made it to campus at UCLA instead. Tommy John surgery struck him down halfway through his freshman year, then he missed his entire sophomore season recovering. Transferring to LSU, he earned high praise from White for his fall performance before embarking on a strong 2024 season. Jump is a very interesting lefty. His fastball sits low to mid 90's and tops out around 96-97, but plays above its velocity with big riding and running life from a low release point. He has long leaned on his above average curveball that tunnels nicely off his fastball, but he moved more towards his slider in 2024 and found better results with that pitch. Jump has a changeup as well, though he doesn't use it as much and it will need more refinement in pro ball. The Orange County native uses a closed off delivery and gets deep into his glutes to ride down the mound and deliver the ball from an over the top slot while still maintaining that low release point. That creates some deception and gives his pitches some extra hop, and he did a great job pounding the strike zone in 2024 with just a 6.5% walk rate. The 6' lefty has a compact frame and lacks projection, though the now stuff is plenty and if he can maintain the command strides he's shown, he's a legitimate mid-rotation starting pitching prospect. Jump is highly competitive and has thrived in big game situations alongside White.

3-75: SS Josh Kuroda-Grauer, Rutgers {video}
Slot value: $1.04 million. Signing bonus: $1.04 million.
My rank: #82. MLB Pipeline: #90. Baseball America: #117.
Last year's first round selection of Jacob Wilson is looking good so far, so the A's doubled up in 2024 and grabbed a similar profile in the third round. Josh Kuroda-Grauer, who will join former Rutgers teammate and 2023 second rounder Ryan Lasko in the A's system, had two solid seasons in New Brunswick before breaking out with a massive 2024 in which his .428 batting average finished second in all of Division I behind only Rockies third overall pick and Golden Spikes Award winner Charlie Condon. Like Wilson, he is an elite contact hitter who ran absurd contact rates nearing 90%, helping him limit his strikeout rate to a minuscule 7.0% in 2024. Perhaps more impressively, he did so while running a relatively high chase rate, making contact with virtually every pitch in or out of the zone. It's a line drive approach in which he guides the ball around the field with precision, leading to high averages which will be sustainable in pro ball. The power is certainly below average, but his twitchy frame and whippy right handed swing help him produce enough impact to keep pitchers honest, giving him a shot for 5-10 home runs per season in pro ball. On the defensive side, Kuroda-Grauer is a sure handed shortstop with good feel for the infield, with plus speed as well that augments his range. His average arm limits him a little bit at the premium position, though he could become an above average to plus defender at second base should he slide across the bag. The North Jersey native seems most likely destined for a utility infielder role given his lack of power, but his high averages could help him play every day given his ability to stick up the middle on the defensive side. He's already moving quickly, having slashed .324/.421/.343 with a 9/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games between Low A Stockton, High A Lansing, and AAA Las Vegas.

4-104: OF Rodney Green, California {video}
Slot value: $703,400. Signing bonus: $1 million ($296,600 above slot value).
My rank: #137. MLB Pipeline: #132. Baseball America: #96.
This could have been a really cool story about an East Bay kid staying home to play for his hometown team. Unfortunately, the Oakland A's have played their final game and are moving east to Sacramento, then on to Las Vegas so Rodney Green will never get to suit up in Oakland. Green grew up in Richmond, California, just fifteen miles north of the Coliseum, and attended El Cerrito High School just to the south of Richmond. He stayed home to attend Cal, where he has spent three years tantalizing with his raw tools but also causing worry with the rawness in his game. Green combines present physicality and additional projection on his 6'3" frame, effortlessly flicking the barrel through the zone for above average raw power that should get to plus in time, especially to the pull side. It's a bit of a unique left handed stroke in which he just drops his hands to the ball and then swats it away, but he's so strong that the ball jumps off his bat anyways. He's also a very patient hitter that makes sure to always get good pitches to hit, helping his power play in games with 28 home runs over the past two seasons. Green's major wart, though, is contact. He whiffs at an astounding rate even though he typically stays within the strike zone and doesn't sell out for power, really struggling to time up quality stuff over the plate. He struggled to just a .161/.316/.290 slash line in the Cape Cod League and struck out almost 40% of the time, and the jump to pro ball may be a steep one. Green will need to make massive strides in his timing and pitch recognition – if he can, he has the approach to make the most of even incremental improvements. Meanwhile, he's a plus runner that has stolen 44 bases over the past two seasons and projects to play center field in the long run, which takes some pressure off his hit tool. If Green does make enough contact, he has a chance to play every day while hitting 20-25 home runs per season with low batting averages but solid on-base percentages, though the swing and miss may limit him to a platoon/fourth outfielder role. He's off to a good start moving towards the higher projection, slashing .289/.368/.464 with three home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 30/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games at Low A Stockton.

5-137: RHP Sam Stuhr, Portland {video}
Slot value: $510,000. Signing bonus: $510,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #184. Baseball America: #207.
Sam Stuhr (pronounced with a long U) gives the A's another West Coast prospect. Having grown up in Portland, he began his college career at Lower Columbia JC in southern Washington before transferring to Oregon State, where he watched the Beavers play from the bench for two seasons. Given his lack of playing time, he transferred once more to the University of Portland back in his hometown to great success. Stuhr sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touches 97-98, though the pitch is fairly straight and he'll opt for an upper 80's cutter at times. He throws both a slider and a curveball, with the latter showing late bite to carve up hitters while the former gives him another solid option. He throws a changeup as well, but it's a bit behind. The 6'1" righty is very physical and can overwhelm hitters with his peak stuff, but his command is below average as he throws with some effort trying to blow past hitters. If Stuhr wants to remain a starter, he'll have to ease off the gas pedal just a little bit to stay ahead in counts. A bit on the older side having turned 22 shortly after the draft, there's a good chance he winds up in the bullpen where he can sit near the higher end of his velocity and pitch more off his fastball/slider combination.

6-166: RHP Josiah Romeo, Mayfield HS [ON] {video}
Slot value: $385,500. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($164,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #237. Baseball America: unranked.
The A's are playing the long game with Josiah Romeo, who lacks a carrying tool but looks like the kind of arm that could progress steadily and turn into a mid-rotation starting pitcher. He showed extremely well in the MLB Draft League (2.51 ERA, 16/1 K/BB in 14.1 IP) and appears to be on that path already. The fastball presently sits in the low 90's, peaking at 94 in the lead up to the draft, with sinking action to keep it off barrels. He shows an average slider with some tilt, then will occasionally mix in a changeup in showcase settings. Nothing in the arsenal will strike big league hitters out just yet, but he's trending in the right direction and carries plenty of projection on his 6'3" frame. Romeo has a simple, repeatable delivery that helps him fill up the strike zone with above average command for his age, so his low 90's fastball comes naturally. As he fills out and gets more explosive on the mound, the velocity should tick up and he has a good chance to be in the mid 90's more often than not down the road. The Toronto-area native had previously been committed to Florida State.

7-196: C Dylan Fien, Great Oak HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $300,200. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($149,800 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The A's spent their first round picks in 2020 and 2022 on Tyler Soderstom (Turlock) and Daniel Susac (Roseville), respectively, and they'll grab a third Californian catcher here with Dylan Fien. A Temecula native out of Southern California, Fien had been committed to UCLA but like Josiah Romero, his $550,000 signing bonus fits in the late fourth round. He is a big, physical, switch hitting catcher listed at 6'3", 210 pounds with room to keep filling out. He produces above average power for now and should grow into plus power as he continues to get stronger and more explosive at the plate, with long arms and legs that create additional leverage. The left handed swing is a bit smoother than the right, though like any power hitting prep catcher you'll find in this range of the draft, he does have questions about swing and miss. High school catchers have a steep learning curve in pro ball and switch hitters have it even tougher, so the A's will have to be patient with Fien as he learns the ropes against pro pitching. They're hoping that patience pays off with a potential 25 home run backstop on their hands in the long run. While he's certainly big, Fien moves well behind the plate and has a solid chance to stick there if he keeps up his conditioning and maintains his quickness. If he's forced out, he's not a burner but he may be able to give third base or a corner outfield spot a chance rather than going straight to first base with some solid athleticism.

8-226: SS Davis Diaz, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $237,400. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($12,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #309.
Davis Diaz makes it two A's draftees from Contra Costa County who will be heading inland with the team. Diaz grew up in Pittsburg, about 25 miles northeast of Oakland and about 44 miles southwest of the team's temporary new home in Sacramento, but attended Acalanes High School across the county in Lafayette, just over the ridge from Oakland. A famous high school prospect who had interest in the top three rounds in 2021, he headed east to Vanderbilt instead and spent three years as a starter in Nashville. Despite playing in 182 of Vanderbilt's 185 games over the past three seasons (and all 123 over the past two), he never quite performed like the Commodores hoped and finished his career just a .243/.360/.369 hitter in an era where offense was up across college baseball. Ironically, he actually hit better with wood bats on the Cape last summer (.296/.427/.417) and beyond that, the underlying data points to better performance ahead. He's a disciplined hitter that runs high contact rates that helped him get on base at that .427 clip on the Cape last summer, with a compact 5'11" frame that helps him keep his swing short and direct. While he slugged just .369 over three years and never reached double digit home runs in a season, there's some sneaky pop in the profile when he turns on the ball and he could reach double digit home runs at the major league level at peak. All of the power does go to the pull side. It's not the world's most exciting offensive profile, but it's one with few holes and which could be enough to get him to the bigs in a utility role. Diaz played mostly third base at Vanderbilt but did see some time at shortstop earlier in his career there and played all over the infield on the Cape, and he should have enough glove to man shortstop in a reserve role. It's a quintessential utility infielder profile that can get on base and hold his own at the bottom of the lineup. He got on base but otherwise didn't hit for much impact in his brief pro debut, slashing .226/.397/.283 with a 9/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games at Low A Stockton.

9-256: 3B Jared Sprague-Lott, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $201,300. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($151,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Jared Sprague-Lott has long enticed scouts first in the Mid-Atlantic and later in the SEC, earning considerable draft interest a year ago, but the A's managed to get a bargain here by bringing him in for just $50,000. Sprague-Lott spent three years at Richmond, where he leveraged a decorated career into the opportunity to play at Arkansas for his senior season. He held down the starting third base role for most of the season and put up a solid .290/.425/.491 line despite the jump in competition. Sprague-Lott is an on-base machine with a patient approach that he maintained against strong competition in the SEC, and he posted an OBP above .400 all four years of college with a career .431 mark. There's real juice in the bat, too, as he shows plus raw power when he turns on the ball with sneaky high top-end exit velocities. More of a contact type by nature, he prefers to use the whole field and hit for average instead, but that pop is certainly nice to have in your back pocket. The Philadelphia native is a strong defender too, showing very well at the hot corner in Fayetteville after playing all around the infield for Richmond. This is one of the savvier senior signs in the class and Sprague-Lott has a chance to be a real value add as a utility infielder, with the ceiling to do more and play every day if he can tap his power more in games while continuing to get on base. 

11-316: RHP Kyle Robinson, Texas Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #208. MLB Pipeline: #182. Baseball America: #101.
Kyle Robinson earned some early day two interest at times and some publications such as Baseball America held him in that range for their final list, but the A's did well to pick him up to begin day three. A Northern Virginia native who went to high school just down the street from where I live now, he has taken on a larger and larger role at Texas Tech and spent 2024 in the weekend rotation. The fastball sits in the low 90's and peaks at 96, albeit with average life. It's a deep arsenal led by an above average slider with power and late bite, while his curveball is more of a show-me pitch. Robinson also adds an above average changeup with great fade, so he has numerous ways to get hitters out. A mountain of a man at 6'6", 210 pounds, he's very physical right now and could throw harder as he gets into a pro conditioning program. It's a low effort, tall and fall type of delivery that keeps things simple and leads to average command of all of his pitches, as well as plenty of durability. He probably lacks upside because he's not the most explosive arm out there, but he projects well as a #4 or #5 starter if he can miss enough bats with his secondaries and hold his command together. Robinson is also young for the class and was still 20 on draft day, which does add a tick of upside. The A's gave him three appearances at Low A Stockton, where he allowed seven runs (six earned) over seven innings, striking out nine and walking three.

12-346: SS Ali Camarillo, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($100,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #201. MLB Pipeline: #236. Baseball America: #180.
Ali Camarillo is another nice find on day three, signing for a seventh round signing bonus in the process. A Chula Vista native, Camarillo spent two years at Cal State Northridge, where he hit .371 as a sophomore and transferred to Texas A&M for his junior season. Starting every game for the Aggies at shortstop, he was a defensive star with his slick glove, smooth actions, and overall strong feel for the dirt. The arm is closer to average than plus, but with the way he moves over there, it will be plenty to stick at shortstop. At the plate, his skinny 6'1" frame lends itself more to contact than power, and he's indeed a pretty strong contact hitter that gets on base at a solid clip. The power is below average and he'll likely never reach double digit home runs in a season unless he changes his approach, so ultimately it's unlikely that he hits enough to play every day. However, his glove will carry him well up the ladder, so as long as he hits a little bit, he has a very good chance to become a big league utility man.