RHP Justin Lange, Llano HS [TX]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/11/2001. Commitment: Dallas Baptist.
Deep in the heart of Central Texas, the small town of Llano (population 3,232 and pronounced LAN-oh) is known around the state as the home of Cooper's Old Time Pit Bar-B-Que, but naturally it hasn't produced many professional sports prospects. Justin Lange is changing that in a big way with a fastball that rivals the other small town Texan right hander in this class, Refugio's (population 2,890) Jared Kelley. Down in South Texas, Kelley has a strong argument as the top high school pitcher in the class, but he's significantly more refined than Lange, who might need more development than any other high school pitcher drafted this year.
Lange actually isn't too dissimilar to the last profile in this series, Miami Christian High's Alejandro Rosario, in that his best asset by far is his big fastball. Lange has always been about projection, but with a fastball that sat around 90 over the summer, he wasn't much of a prospect until very recently. His velocity started ticking up in the fall, then he came out of the gate in the spring sitting in the mid to upper 90's and touching 100, vaulting himself up prospect lists. Lange produces this velocity with relative ease, unfurling his extremely projectable 6'4" frame to fling the ball forward with a very natural, athletic delivery.
Now, I say "fling" because that's probably the most accurate word, certainly more so than "pitch." Lange has virtually no command of the pitch, more just letting it fly at incredible speeds in the general direction of the plate. He will need significant, significant refinement in that area, learning to control his body and pitch with intention against more advanced hitters. The fastball is already such a tremendous pitch, with great riding life in addition to its velocity, that he'll probably never need pinpoint command to be successful, but he will need to locate regardless. His breaking ball is also a work in progress, a mid to upper 80's slider that stands out much more for its velocity than its life. If he wants any chance to start, that pitch is going to need to leap forward at least a full grade, perhaps more. He'll also need to add a changeup, something he hasn't done much to this point.
For all of his rough edges, there is reason to believe Lange can figure it out. For one, the nuances of the game are often coachable, but you can't teach someone to throw 100. Additionally, coming from a very rural area about an hour and a half northwest of Austin, Lange hasn't had as many of the same opportunities to work out in those expensive training facilities you get in the suburbs, so pro coaching could do him wonders. Even though he doesn't offer much aside from velocity at this point, he looks so natural on the mound that you have to be excited about his upside. I haven't heard anything about him being a particularly tough sign, and his talent likely puts him somewhere in the second round range, perhaps to a team with multiple early picks who can absorb some of the risk. The upside here is about as high as you can imagine, while the risk is about that high as well.
Pitching in the fall
Friday, May 22, 2020
Thursday, May 21, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Alejandro Rosario
RHP Alejandro Rosario, Miami Christian HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 1/6/2002. Commitment: Miami.
There is a deep group of high school prospects in South Florida this year, and Miami Christian High School's Alejandro Rosario is among the best. He's certainly not the most polished arm in the area, but few can match his upside. Rosario, as with quite a few other reclassifying prep players like Nick Bitsko, David Calabrese, Blaze Jordan, and Owen Caissie, was originally a member of the 2021 class, but he would have been almost 19 and a half on draft day and is much more age-appropriate for the 2020 class. Because the gap between his present ability and future projection is so wide, he's certain to be a divisive prospect on draft day, but enough teams should be interested that he'll get plenty of buzz.
Rosario's prime asset is a mid 90's fastball that can scrape the upper 90's fairly consistently. Though he's on the smaller side at 6'1" and pretty skinny at that, his delivery and arm action are loose, allowing him to sit comfortably around 94-95 without overthrowing. However, the rest of his game needs considerable refinement. The fastball itself is pretty straight, something that tends to come into play against more advanced competition. As for offspeed pitches, he throws a slider and a splitter, with both looking good at times but often running into each other. The splitter is probably the better pitch, coming in with downward bite and looking like one of the better changeups in the high school class when it's at its best. He needs to work on differentiating that slider away from the splitter, with his overall feel for spinning the ball in need of significant refinement.
Rosario throws strikes and has decent enough control, but his command (ability to hit spots) does need some work as well. Between his size, lack of refined offspeed pitches, and raw command, there is significant bullpen risk here, but his velocity, the looseness in his delivery, and competitive nature do give him a lot to work with. Teams willing to put the time in to work with Rosario could benefit greatly. The Miami Hurricanes would also love to get their hands on arguably their top recruit (though Victor Mederos has a strong case as well), and in a draft class where teams are valuing safety and track record, signability could come into play if he starts to slip. If he can learn to manipulate his offspeed pitches a little better and make similar, even incremental strides with his command, he could dominate the ACC and become a first round pick in 2023.
Pitching over the summer
More summer pitching
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 1/6/2002. Commitment: Miami.
There is a deep group of high school prospects in South Florida this year, and Miami Christian High School's Alejandro Rosario is among the best. He's certainly not the most polished arm in the area, but few can match his upside. Rosario, as with quite a few other reclassifying prep players like Nick Bitsko, David Calabrese, Blaze Jordan, and Owen Caissie, was originally a member of the 2021 class, but he would have been almost 19 and a half on draft day and is much more age-appropriate for the 2020 class. Because the gap between his present ability and future projection is so wide, he's certain to be a divisive prospect on draft day, but enough teams should be interested that he'll get plenty of buzz.
Rosario's prime asset is a mid 90's fastball that can scrape the upper 90's fairly consistently. Though he's on the smaller side at 6'1" and pretty skinny at that, his delivery and arm action are loose, allowing him to sit comfortably around 94-95 without overthrowing. However, the rest of his game needs considerable refinement. The fastball itself is pretty straight, something that tends to come into play against more advanced competition. As for offspeed pitches, he throws a slider and a splitter, with both looking good at times but often running into each other. The splitter is probably the better pitch, coming in with downward bite and looking like one of the better changeups in the high school class when it's at its best. He needs to work on differentiating that slider away from the splitter, with his overall feel for spinning the ball in need of significant refinement.
Rosario throws strikes and has decent enough control, but his command (ability to hit spots) does need some work as well. Between his size, lack of refined offspeed pitches, and raw command, there is significant bullpen risk here, but his velocity, the looseness in his delivery, and competitive nature do give him a lot to work with. Teams willing to put the time in to work with Rosario could benefit greatly. The Miami Hurricanes would also love to get their hands on arguably their top recruit (though Victor Mederos has a strong case as well), and in a draft class where teams are valuing safety and track record, signability could come into play if he starts to slip. If he can learn to manipulate his offspeed pitches a little better and make similar, even incremental strides with his command, he could dominate the ACC and become a first round pick in 2023.
Pitching over the summer
More summer pitching
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Kyle Harrison
LHP Kyle Harrison, De La Salle HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/12/2001. Commitment: UCLA.
De La Salle High School in the Oakland suburb of Concord, California is most well known for the movie When the Game Stands Tall, which depicted its football team's 151 game winning streak from 1992-2004. This year, their baseball team boasts one of the best high school lefthanders in the country in a relatively shallow draft for that demographic. Dax Fulton, who is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery, is probably the best prospect in the group when healthy, though Harrison is right behind him and is ready to go right now. That could lead to him being the first high school lefty selected this June.
Unlike some of the power arms in this class, Harrison is one where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 94 occasionally, not overwhelming velocity but definitely enough given the rest of his skill set. His best secondary pitch is his frisbee slider, a big bender with excellent shape but which can soften up at times. Lastly, he throws a decent changeup that isn't much of a weapon yet, but he has shown good feel for pitching and that should help him develop it in the future.
Everything in Harrison's arsenal plays up for a couple of reasons. One is his command, which is above average, especially for a high schooler. Once he adds some power to his slider, the two pitches could tunnel really well off each other. The other is his delivery, which enables him to hide the ball extremely well, something that goes a long way against more advanced hitters. He stands 6'2" and while he's not the most projectable pitcher in the class, there is the potential for him to get stronger as he gets older, which bodes well for both his fastball velocity and that slider.
Harrison is slightly old for the class, turning 19 in August, but he's already pretty advanced so that shouldn't be much of a factor. Nothing stands out in his profile, but he has a little of everything going for him and he could be an impact starting pitcher in time. He's probably a second or third round talent, but he could go earlier if a team that likes his combination of youth and handedness (not many can match that in this draft) or later if his asking price away from UCLA gets too high.
Pitching over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/12/2001. Commitment: UCLA.
De La Salle High School in the Oakland suburb of Concord, California is most well known for the movie When the Game Stands Tall, which depicted its football team's 151 game winning streak from 1992-2004. This year, their baseball team boasts one of the best high school lefthanders in the country in a relatively shallow draft for that demographic. Dax Fulton, who is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery, is probably the best prospect in the group when healthy, though Harrison is right behind him and is ready to go right now. That could lead to him being the first high school lefty selected this June.
Unlike some of the power arms in this class, Harrison is one where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 94 occasionally, not overwhelming velocity but definitely enough given the rest of his skill set. His best secondary pitch is his frisbee slider, a big bender with excellent shape but which can soften up at times. Lastly, he throws a decent changeup that isn't much of a weapon yet, but he has shown good feel for pitching and that should help him develop it in the future.
Everything in Harrison's arsenal plays up for a couple of reasons. One is his command, which is above average, especially for a high schooler. Once he adds some power to his slider, the two pitches could tunnel really well off each other. The other is his delivery, which enables him to hide the ball extremely well, something that goes a long way against more advanced hitters. He stands 6'2" and while he's not the most projectable pitcher in the class, there is the potential for him to get stronger as he gets older, which bodes well for both his fastball velocity and that slider.
Harrison is slightly old for the class, turning 19 in August, but he's already pretty advanced so that shouldn't be much of a factor. Nothing stands out in his profile, but he has a little of everything going for him and he could be an impact starting pitcher in time. He's probably a second or third round talent, but he could go earlier if a team that likes his combination of youth and handedness (not many can match that in this draft) or later if his asking price away from UCLA gets too high.
Pitching over the summer
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Chase Davis
OF Chase Davis, Franklin HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/5/2001. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Arizona.
Chase Davis is yet another outfielder from a strong California high school crop, coming from Franklin High School in the Sacramento area. One of the best athletes in the class, it's a lot of fun to watch Davis play, and at his best he can look like a first round pick. He was trending up over the summer as he improved his hit tool, and while a relatively slow start to the season slowed that progress a little, it wasn't nearly enough to erase it and he remains one of the most dynamic high schoolers in the class.
The first thing that stands out about Davis is his athleticism. Well-known to be a gym rat, he's an explosive athlete whose strength translates well onto the baseball field. He has extremely quick hands that he channels into explosive bat speed, which in turn enables him to show plus raw power when he gets into one. However, he has some extreme pre-swing bat wrap in which the end of the bat curls behind his head and points almost towards the pitcher, making his swing significantly longer than it needs to be. This in turn has caused his hit tool to play down perhaps a half grade or more from where it should be, and it could also be reason to envision an even higher ceiling.
Davis is a streaky hitter, but at times he has shown the ability to consistently square up high velocity and put a charge into the ball. If he can eliminate that bat wrap, his hands are so quick and he does such a good job of generating leverage that he could end up with an above average hit tool when all is said and done. Combine that with plus power, and you have a real impact hitter. In addition to his bat, Davis is a good runner with above average speed, and he could be a great defender in right field with an exceptional arm.
There is great upside value here, as Davis' realistic ceiling has him hitting 30+ home runs annually with decent on-base percentages, some speed, and good defense in right field. However, his relatively slow start to the season could scare some more risk-averse teams off, as many are valuing track record right now and Davis' is naturally short as a high schooler as well as a bit uneven. He could have a wide draft range, anywhere from the early second round if he's signable and a team buys into the upside, to the late third if teams are feeling particularly risk-averse, to not at all if his asking price gets too high away from his Arizona commitment.
BP, fielding, and game action over the summer
More hitting over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/5/2001. B/T: L/L
Commitment: Arizona.
Chase Davis is yet another outfielder from a strong California high school crop, coming from Franklin High School in the Sacramento area. One of the best athletes in the class, it's a lot of fun to watch Davis play, and at his best he can look like a first round pick. He was trending up over the summer as he improved his hit tool, and while a relatively slow start to the season slowed that progress a little, it wasn't nearly enough to erase it and he remains one of the most dynamic high schoolers in the class.
The first thing that stands out about Davis is his athleticism. Well-known to be a gym rat, he's an explosive athlete whose strength translates well onto the baseball field. He has extremely quick hands that he channels into explosive bat speed, which in turn enables him to show plus raw power when he gets into one. However, he has some extreme pre-swing bat wrap in which the end of the bat curls behind his head and points almost towards the pitcher, making his swing significantly longer than it needs to be. This in turn has caused his hit tool to play down perhaps a half grade or more from where it should be, and it could also be reason to envision an even higher ceiling.
Davis is a streaky hitter, but at times he has shown the ability to consistently square up high velocity and put a charge into the ball. If he can eliminate that bat wrap, his hands are so quick and he does such a good job of generating leverage that he could end up with an above average hit tool when all is said and done. Combine that with plus power, and you have a real impact hitter. In addition to his bat, Davis is a good runner with above average speed, and he could be a great defender in right field with an exceptional arm.
There is great upside value here, as Davis' realistic ceiling has him hitting 30+ home runs annually with decent on-base percentages, some speed, and good defense in right field. However, his relatively slow start to the season could scare some more risk-averse teams off, as many are valuing track record right now and Davis' is naturally short as a high schooler as well as a bit uneven. He could have a wide draft range, anywhere from the early second round if he's signable and a team buys into the upside, to the late third if teams are feeling particularly risk-averse, to not at all if his asking price gets too high away from his Arizona commitment.
BP, fielding, and game action over the summer
More hitting over the summer
Monday, May 18, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Colt Keith
SS/RHP Colt Keith, Biloxi HS [MS]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/14/2001. B/T: L/R
Commitment: Arizona State.
Keith is part of a relatively strong class of high school two-way players, though I personally prefer his bat over his arm by a wide margin. I actually didn't like him much as a prospect when I originally researched him as a pitcher, originally ranking him outside the top 100, but when I came back to study him as a hitter, I liked his offensive profile more and more. Mississippi's top high school prospect (at least in my opinion, ahead of power hitters Blaze Jordan and Slade Wilks) has the scouting industry generally split on where he'll play in the future, probably leaning a bit towards hitting, where his upside is especially exciting.
As I said previously, I prefer Keith as a hitter. His swing can get a bit choppy and he doesn't always get a ton of extension, but his quick hands and the natural leverage he creates with his 6'3" frame helps him produce good raw power anyways. He has a good enough approach at the plate to make the most out of that power as well, not showing as much swing and miss as some of the other power bats in this class. With some mechanical changes, I think he could take off at the plate. He also provides value defensively, his speed and arm strength giving him a chance to stick at shortstop, though he would also be a good third baseman if he were to move over there.
On the mound, he's a bit more of a projection arm. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a nice two-plane curveball with good shape, though he needs to add power to the pitch and develop a changeup. There is some crossfire in his delivery which, combined with good extension, can make his pitches play up. The strike throwing ability is there, though he's not a true command artist. If he can sharpen up that curveball and add a changeup, he'll be a legitimate starting pitching prospect, but in my opinion he has more work to do on the mound to get to where he is as a hitter.
Keith is relatively old for his class, turning 19 in August, though ditching the mound or the bat could help him improve quickly with the other. I see a 20-25 home run bat, perhaps up to 30, that will post decent on-base percentages in addition to a few stolen bases and positive defensive value. He could go to Arizona State and sort himself out, as he still does need a fair amount of refinement in his offensive game, and return for the 2023 draft a first round pick. In 2020, if he's signable, he projects somewhere in the second or third round, though I'd put his talent more cleanly in the second.
Hitting over the summer
Pitching over the summer
Some summer batting practice
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/14/2001. B/T: L/R
Commitment: Arizona State.
Keith is part of a relatively strong class of high school two-way players, though I personally prefer his bat over his arm by a wide margin. I actually didn't like him much as a prospect when I originally researched him as a pitcher, originally ranking him outside the top 100, but when I came back to study him as a hitter, I liked his offensive profile more and more. Mississippi's top high school prospect (at least in my opinion, ahead of power hitters Blaze Jordan and Slade Wilks) has the scouting industry generally split on where he'll play in the future, probably leaning a bit towards hitting, where his upside is especially exciting.
As I said previously, I prefer Keith as a hitter. His swing can get a bit choppy and he doesn't always get a ton of extension, but his quick hands and the natural leverage he creates with his 6'3" frame helps him produce good raw power anyways. He has a good enough approach at the plate to make the most out of that power as well, not showing as much swing and miss as some of the other power bats in this class. With some mechanical changes, I think he could take off at the plate. He also provides value defensively, his speed and arm strength giving him a chance to stick at shortstop, though he would also be a good third baseman if he were to move over there.
On the mound, he's a bit more of a projection arm. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a nice two-plane curveball with good shape, though he needs to add power to the pitch and develop a changeup. There is some crossfire in his delivery which, combined with good extension, can make his pitches play up. The strike throwing ability is there, though he's not a true command artist. If he can sharpen up that curveball and add a changeup, he'll be a legitimate starting pitching prospect, but in my opinion he has more work to do on the mound to get to where he is as a hitter.
Keith is relatively old for his class, turning 19 in August, though ditching the mound or the bat could help him improve quickly with the other. I see a 20-25 home run bat, perhaps up to 30, that will post decent on-base percentages in addition to a few stolen bases and positive defensive value. He could go to Arizona State and sort himself out, as he still does need a fair amount of refinement in his offensive game, and return for the 2023 draft a first round pick. In 2020, if he's signable, he projects somewhere in the second or third round, though I'd put his talent more cleanly in the second.
Hitting over the summer
Pitching over the summer
Some summer batting practice
Sunday, May 17, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Ben Hernandez
RHP Ben Hernandez, De La Salle Institute [IL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/1/2001. Commitment: Illinois-Chicago
The top high school arm in the Midwest, just like the top bat in the Midwest (Ed Howard), comes to us from Chicago. In fact, Howard and Hernandez go to school less than five miles apart on the South Side, with Hernandez's De La Salle Institute sitting just a couple of blocks from Guaranteed Rate Field, home of the White Sox. Hernandez is perhaps most well-known for possessing the best changeup in the high school class, using it to complement a well-rounded profile that makes him a favorite among scouts.
Hernandez, who stands 6'2", throws an exceptional changeup in the low to mid 80's that just fades and fades to his arm side. It's the best changeup in the high school class, and it's enough to consistently miss bats on its own without being set up by his other offerings. He also sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which can really jump on hitters because he doesn't throw it with much effort. The fastball and the changeup tunnel really well off each other because of his solid command. At this point, the biggest piece of development for Hernandez is definitely the breaking ball. His curveball is alright, getting good top to bottom shape at times, but it lacks any real power and at this point it isn't really the putaway pitch that he'll need to be an impact starter at the next level.
Between the fastball and the changeup, Hernandez has the two pitch mix, plus the command, to succeed at the lower levels of the minors. When it comes to high school pitchers, you always expect something to be less than perfect, but that's also what makes high school arms (especially high school righties) such risky picks. If a pro team can sharpen that breaking ball to even an average pitch, then you have a legitimate prospect. Even without that breaking ball, he still has enough other starters' traits to potentially succeed in a #4/#5 role. One thing to keep in mind is age, as he will turn 19 in July and is older than most other high schoolers.
I don't know anything about how firm his commitment is to the University of Illinois-Chicago, but I imagine it's perhaps not as firm as some of these other commitments to schools like Vanderbilt, Texas, or Florida State (though UIC did give us Curtis Granderson in 2002). On talent alone, he fits as a second or third round pick with that fastball, changeup, and command. Some teams are bound to like him a lot better than others, so whichever team ends up with him will undoubtedly be very excited about the pick whether that's in the second round, third round, or later.
Throwing indoors in 2020
Summer showcase action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/1/2001. Commitment: Illinois-Chicago
The top high school arm in the Midwest, just like the top bat in the Midwest (Ed Howard), comes to us from Chicago. In fact, Howard and Hernandez go to school less than five miles apart on the South Side, with Hernandez's De La Salle Institute sitting just a couple of blocks from Guaranteed Rate Field, home of the White Sox. Hernandez is perhaps most well-known for possessing the best changeup in the high school class, using it to complement a well-rounded profile that makes him a favorite among scouts.
Hernandez, who stands 6'2", throws an exceptional changeup in the low to mid 80's that just fades and fades to his arm side. It's the best changeup in the high school class, and it's enough to consistently miss bats on its own without being set up by his other offerings. He also sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which can really jump on hitters because he doesn't throw it with much effort. The fastball and the changeup tunnel really well off each other because of his solid command. At this point, the biggest piece of development for Hernandez is definitely the breaking ball. His curveball is alright, getting good top to bottom shape at times, but it lacks any real power and at this point it isn't really the putaway pitch that he'll need to be an impact starter at the next level.
Between the fastball and the changeup, Hernandez has the two pitch mix, plus the command, to succeed at the lower levels of the minors. When it comes to high school pitchers, you always expect something to be less than perfect, but that's also what makes high school arms (especially high school righties) such risky picks. If a pro team can sharpen that breaking ball to even an average pitch, then you have a legitimate prospect. Even without that breaking ball, he still has enough other starters' traits to potentially succeed in a #4/#5 role. One thing to keep in mind is age, as he will turn 19 in July and is older than most other high schoolers.
I don't know anything about how firm his commitment is to the University of Illinois-Chicago, but I imagine it's perhaps not as firm as some of these other commitments to schools like Vanderbilt, Texas, or Florida State (though UIC did give us Curtis Granderson in 2002). On talent alone, he fits as a second or third round pick with that fastball, changeup, and command. Some teams are bound to like him a lot better than others, so whichever team ends up with him will undoubtedly be very excited about the pick whether that's in the second round, third round, or later.
Throwing indoors in 2020
Summer showcase action
2020 Draft Profile: Nick Garcia
RHP Nick Garcia, Chapman
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/20/1999.
2020 Stats: 4-1, 2.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 36/7 K/BB in 27 IP
Nick Garcia might be the only player on this list whose high school is more famous than his college. A graduate of Junipero Serra High School in San Mateo, California, his fellow alumni include Tom Brady, Barry Bonds, NFL Hall of Famer Lynn Swann, and more recently, 2019 Giants first rounder Hunter Bishop. Not widely scouted back then, Garcia ended up at Division III Chapman University in the shadows of Angel Stadium, originally playing third base. After he hit just .268/.326/.293 as a freshman in 2018, the Panthers moved him to the mound, where he found immediate success; as a sophomore in 2019, Garcia put up a 0.64 ERA and an 82/14 strikeout to walk ratio across 56 innings out of the bullpen, earning a trip to the elite Cape Cod League. He opened a lot of eyes up there with a 3.17 ERA and a 20/11 strikeout to walk ratio across 17 innings, and then his stock leapt forward yet again in 2020 with a successful transition to the rotation: 2.00 ERA, 36/7 K/BB in 27 innings.
Over the course of barely a year, Garcia went from completely off the map to a top prospect for the 2020 draft. Listed at 6'4", Garcia's best attribute is his low to mid 90's fastball, which can have good running action and which has hit 98 before. Though he's a fresh arm, he's not just a pure power pitcher, adding in a slider and a cutter. The slider has deeper, two-plane tilt, while the cutter comes in with more velocity and consistently misses barrels. He doesn't have much of a changeup, but then again, he only started pitching as a sophomore and only began starting as a junior. The control (ability to throw strikes) is well ahead of the command (ability to spot pitches), but again, he hasn't been pitching for that long.
With an ideal pitcher's frame, three good pitches, and now the ability to start, Garcia has been trending up quickly. That said, there are a few caveats to his game. While his time on the Cape was overall a success, he did walk 11 in 17 innings in his only action against any kind of advanced hitting, and he's otherwise completely unproven above the Division III level. If he wants to start, he needs to refine his command and his changeup, which should theoretically be more likely given that he's so new to pitching, but theoretically is not a given until it actually happens.
If Garcia develops the way he's projected to, he could be an impact starting pitcher pretty easily. However, the depth of college pitching in this class in addition to this year's emphasis on track record could push him down a bit in the draft. He projects as a second round arm in a normal draft but could fall to the third this year if teams don't think they've seen enough from him as a starter to feel comfortable (he's only started five games, ever). Perhaps helping his case just a little is his April birthday, which isn't crazy young but it makes him nearly nine months younger than a guy like Wake Forest's Jared Shuster, who projects in a similar draft range.
Fall 2019 scrimmage (home plate view)
Same outing from CF view
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 4/20/1999.
2020 Stats: 4-1, 2.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 36/7 K/BB in 27 IP
Nick Garcia might be the only player on this list whose high school is more famous than his college. A graduate of Junipero Serra High School in San Mateo, California, his fellow alumni include Tom Brady, Barry Bonds, NFL Hall of Famer Lynn Swann, and more recently, 2019 Giants first rounder Hunter Bishop. Not widely scouted back then, Garcia ended up at Division III Chapman University in the shadows of Angel Stadium, originally playing third base. After he hit just .268/.326/.293 as a freshman in 2018, the Panthers moved him to the mound, where he found immediate success; as a sophomore in 2019, Garcia put up a 0.64 ERA and an 82/14 strikeout to walk ratio across 56 innings out of the bullpen, earning a trip to the elite Cape Cod League. He opened a lot of eyes up there with a 3.17 ERA and a 20/11 strikeout to walk ratio across 17 innings, and then his stock leapt forward yet again in 2020 with a successful transition to the rotation: 2.00 ERA, 36/7 K/BB in 27 innings.
Over the course of barely a year, Garcia went from completely off the map to a top prospect for the 2020 draft. Listed at 6'4", Garcia's best attribute is his low to mid 90's fastball, which can have good running action and which has hit 98 before. Though he's a fresh arm, he's not just a pure power pitcher, adding in a slider and a cutter. The slider has deeper, two-plane tilt, while the cutter comes in with more velocity and consistently misses barrels. He doesn't have much of a changeup, but then again, he only started pitching as a sophomore and only began starting as a junior. The control (ability to throw strikes) is well ahead of the command (ability to spot pitches), but again, he hasn't been pitching for that long.
With an ideal pitcher's frame, three good pitches, and now the ability to start, Garcia has been trending up quickly. That said, there are a few caveats to his game. While his time on the Cape was overall a success, he did walk 11 in 17 innings in his only action against any kind of advanced hitting, and he's otherwise completely unproven above the Division III level. If he wants to start, he needs to refine his command and his changeup, which should theoretically be more likely given that he's so new to pitching, but theoretically is not a given until it actually happens.
If Garcia develops the way he's projected to, he could be an impact starting pitcher pretty easily. However, the depth of college pitching in this class in addition to this year's emphasis on track record could push him down a bit in the draft. He projects as a second round arm in a normal draft but could fall to the third this year if teams don't think they've seen enough from him as a starter to feel comfortable (he's only started five games, ever). Perhaps helping his case just a little is his April birthday, which isn't crazy young but it makes him nearly nine months younger than a guy like Wake Forest's Jared Shuster, who projects in a similar draft range.
Fall 2019 scrimmage (home plate view)
Same outing from CF view
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