One year does not tell you everything you need to know about a draft's success, but the first full season is often a huge tell as to how a player's amateur production will translate into pro ball. In 2017, 2016 second rounder Bo Bichette (Blue Jays) slashed .362/.423/.565 in A ball to turn himself into one of the top prospects in his draft class, while fourth overall pick Riley Pint's (Rockies) 5.42 ERA and poor 79/59 strikeout to walk ratio in Class A that year pointed towards what has ultimately been a disappointing start to his pro career and a greatly diminished prospect status. Now, this does go the other way. Using the same 2016 draft class, third rounder Austin Hays (Orioles) slashed .329/.365/.593 with 32 home runs in 2017 to vault himself all the way to the big leagues, but 2018 and 2019 have been rather pedestrian and he has lost some shine from that big first full season. On the flip side, first rounder Gavin Lux (Dodgers) looked rather mediocre in Class A that year with a .244/.331/.362 slash line, but he exploded for a .324/.399/.514 line in 2018 and is now one of the top prospects in the game.
All of that said about the 2016 draft, the first full season very important, and I'm ready to dive into the 2018 draftees and where they stand today at the end of the 2019 season. As a whole, this draft class is proving to be particularly strong as a lot of players have over-performed and very few have seriously under-performed.
The Top Five Picks
1-1: RHP Casey Mize (Auburn -> Detroit Tigers). Stock ticking up – cautiously
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP at High A and AA
It's been a roller coaster ride for Mize so far, as a lot happened in his first full season. He had some minor durability questions as an underclassman at Auburn, though he mostly alleviated them as a junior but was still held to just 13.2 innings in his pro debut in 2018 after a long season in the SEC. The Tigers turned him loose at High A Lakeland in 2019, and he quickly rewarded them with four exceptional starts, so he was promoted to AA Erie and threw a no-hitter in his first start at the level. As of June 13th, he had a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, but a minor shoulder injury shut him down that day and the entire state of Michigan held its breath. Fortunately, he returned in July, but he was knocked around a bit and had a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31.1 innings before being shut down. The Tigers maintain that he was healthy and that they felt he had accomplished everything he needed to in 2019 and that they were just monitoring his workload, but shoulder injuries are very scary and, at their worst, can end careers. In all, I'd take Mize's 2019 season as a success in that he proved he could dominate the upper minors in just his first full season, but I'm only cautiously optimistic because of the shoulder issue.
1-2: C Joey Bart (Georgia Tech -> San Francisco Giants). Stock holding
16 HR, .278/.328/.495, 5 SB, 71/21 K/BB, 128 wRC+ in 79 games at High A and AA
Aside from a broken left hand that kept him out of action from mid April until early June, Bart neither exceeded nor fell short of expectations in 2019. The 2018 second overall pick out of Georgia Tech began the season at High A San Jose, completely skipping Class A after spending most of his 2018 pro debut at short season Salem-Keizer, and he slashed .265/.315/.479 with 12 home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games around that broken hand. Promoted to AA Richmond towards the end of the season, Bart held up well at the advanced level and slashed .316/.368/.544 with four home runs and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games, giving him 16 home runs and a .278/.328/.495 line on the abbreviated year. Bart showed his light-tower power throughout the season, though he didn't get to it quite consistently enough to warrant bumping his already valuable stock up further. Not known for strong plate discipline in college, his approach held up against advanced pitching and looks like it won't be a problem. Bart remains on track to take over the starting catching job from Buster Posey sometime in the next few seasons.
1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (Wichita State -> Philadelphia Phillies). Stock ticking up
21 HR, .305/.378/.518, 6 SB, 73/57 K/BB, 160 wRC+ in 125 games at Class A, High A, and AA
Like Bart, Alec Bohm was known in college for his prodigious raw power. The Phillies weren't quite as aggressive with the Wichita State product, starting him at Class A Lakewood, and he proved quickly that he didn't belong by slashing .367/.441/.595 with three home runs in 22 games, earning a promotion to High A Clearwater. Despite the pitcher-friendly environment, he still slashed .329/.395/.506 with four home runs and a 21/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He earned a promotion to AA Reading, though at this point, he had hit "just" seven home runs in 62 games – not a bad number, especially considering his high on-base percentage, but you'd hope for more out of your star third overall pick who was known for his power. In hitter-friendly Reading, that power finally showed up and he slashed .269/.344/.500 with 14 home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games to close out the year. Together, that meant 21 home runs and a .305/.378/.518 line in his first full season, showing a potent all-around bat that should be major league ready in 2020. With the juiced balls in AAA and the majors, he should have no problem getting to his power up there and his strong plate discipline will help him be a true middle of the order threat.
1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State -> Chicago White Sox). Stock ticking up
4 HR, .311/.377/.414, 35 SB, 16/44 K/BB, 125 wRC+ in 120 games at High A, AA, and AAA
While Bohm started in Class A, Madrigal joined Mize and Bart with that aggressive assignment to High A, in this case Winston-Salem, and he responded by slashing .272/.346/.377 with two home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 6/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but Madrigal is listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, so it was a big step towards proving he could hit pro pitching with authority. Called up to AA Birmingham, he improved to .341/.400/.451 with one home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, earning yet another promotion up to AAA Charlotte barely a year after he was drafted. A .331/.398/.424 with a home run, four stolen bases, and a 5/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games closed out his season, and he finished at .309/.371/.398 with 35 stolen bases and just 16 strikeouts in 120 games, good for a 3% strikeout rate. The scouting report today stands exactly the same as it did last year when he was drafted, but now not only does he make the easiest contact in minor league baseball while stealing plenty of bases, he can hit for *some* moderate power as well with 27 doubles, five triples, and four home runs this year. Now a second baseman, where he fits better, he'll match up well with Tim Anderson when he reaches the majors in 2020, likely shortly after his 23rd birthday.
1-5: 3B Jonathan India (Florida -> Cincinnati Reds). Stock down a tick
11 HR, .259/.365/.402, 11 SB, 110/59 K/BB, 129 wRC+ in 121 games at High A and AA
Jonathan India's massive offensive outburst as a junior at Florida in 2018 propelled him into the first round, where I ranked him twelfth on my personal list and where the Reds drafted him with the fifth overall pick. As his first full season comes to a close, I'm feeling pretty good about that #12 ranking and my feeling that #5 was a bit too high seems to be reaffirmed. That said, while India failed to live up to expectations in 2019, I wouldn't call this year a full-on disappointment given the pitcher-friendly contexts he played in. India started off at High A Daytona Beach, where he slashed a rather pedestrian .256/.346/.410 with eight home runs and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games. Promoted up to AA Chattanooga in July, he finished off the season by slashing .270/.414/.378 with three home runs and a 26/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games, giving him eleven home runs and a .259/.365/.402 line for the year. India showed strong plate discipline to go with average power and contact ability, and though the power didn't really carry over to AA, he remains a highly regarded prospect who should be an all-around contributor at the major league level. As I said with Bohm, the juiced balls at AAA and the majors should help him tap into that power a bit more, and he could be a solid #5 hitter with the Reds in the near future. I just don't see him as a future star.
Stock Way Up
1-6: OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West (WI) HS -> New York Mets -> Seattle Mariners)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 111/50 K/BB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games at Class A, High A, and AA
If we were to re-do the 2018 Draft this winter, Casey Mize would probably still go first overall, but Jarred Kelenic would have a real shot at going second after after his monster first full season left the Mets regretting trading him to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. Like most advanced high school bats, Kelenic started the season in Class A with West Virginia, but he only lasted 50 games after he slashed .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs and a 45/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to High A Modesto, he kept on hitting against advanced competition to the tune of a .290/.353/.485 line, six home runs, and a 49/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. In August, the Mariners decided to turn him loose up at AA Arkansas, where he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six more home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games against extremely advanced pitching. We all knew he was advanced for a high schooler, but even then, a 20-20 season and a .291/.364/.540 line while reaching AA is extremely impressive. Unlike most high school draftees, Kelenic is on the fast track to the majors, and he could be a productive, top of the lineup hitter in the Mariners' lineup sooner rather than later.
1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson -> Seattle Mariners)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Well, what can you say, the 2018 Draft has been good to the Seattle Mariners. Not only has Jarred Kelenic established himself as one of the top prospects in baseball, Logan Gilbert has bumped his name among the best pitching prospects as well. After holding him out of game action in 2018 following a long season with Stetson, the Mariners started him off slowly with a relatively conservative assignment to Class A West Virginia, where he posted a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings before his promotion drew a collective sigh of relief across South Atlantic League lineups. Up at High A Modesto, his opponents didn't fare much better, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings, forcing another promotion. Up at AA Arkansas by mid-July, he had a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over nine starts to finish off one of the finest pitching seasons in the minors this year. He entered the year with good, not great, stuff across the board, but it all played up exceptionally well as he missed bats left and right while maintaining the above average command that helped him go in the first round. Viewed as a potential #2 or #3 starter at draft time, Gilbert looks like he could be a true ace in the near future.
1-28: OF Seth Beer (Clemson -> Houston Astros -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
26 HR, .289/.388/.516, 0 SB, 113/46 K/BB, 155 wRC+ at High A and AA
At Clemson, Seth Beer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers against strong ACC pitching, but his pronounced history of struggling with wood bats against top competition left teams wondering what his bat would look like in pro ball. Combine that with little to no defensive value and Beer was an enigmatic prospect to the fullest extent. He slashed .304/.389/.496 and reached Class A in his 67 game pro debut in 2018 after going to the Astros in the back of the first round, but his monster 2019 season got rid of any concerns that his bat would play up. After slashing .328/.414/.602 with nine home runs in 35 games at High A Fayetteville, he was quickly promoted to AA Corpus Christi, where he slashed .299/.407/.543 over 63 games before slumping to .205/.297/.318 after being traded to the Diamondbacks. Beer's big production proves he's much closer to the hitter he was at Clemson rather than the one he was over the summers, and this Seth Beer could have been a top ten pick with plate discipline, power, and the ability to get to it. He still won't provide any defensive value, but his bat will slot right into the middle of the Arizona lineup.
2-63: OF Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel [IL] HS -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
10 HR, .300/.379/.450, 15 SB, 105/52 K/BB, 140 wRC+ at Class A and High A
Thomas' numbers don't quite pop off the page like some of the names above him, but for a second rounder that was pegged as a fringy starter/possible fourth outfielder, he's certainly exceeded expectations by a long shot. Thomas started off at Class A Kane County and raked to the tune of a .312/.393/.479 line, eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 72/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games in the pitcher-friendly league. Aggressively promoted up to High A Visalia just a few months after his 19th birthday, he slashed a respectable .255/.327/.340 with a pair of home runs and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games against advanced competition. We all knew that Thomas had an advanced feel for the game, but we questioned his tools. He showed that strong plate discipline and defense this year, but he also proved he could hit for impact, and that could be the difference between him developing into a fourth outfielder and a legitimate, dynamic, every day contributor.
CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (Le Moyne -> Cincinnati Reds -> Los Angeles Dodgers)
11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Just as the Mets probably regret trading Jarred Kelenic, the Reds probably regret dealing Josiah Gray in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal. A shortstop when he first reached Division II Le Moyne College in Syracuse, New York, Gray transitioned to the mound and immediately showed a tremendous ceiling. A strong pro debut with Greeneville in the rookie level Appalachian League (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB) in 2018 was an encouraging sign, but he proved in 2019 that he is much more advanced than originally anticipated and that he's flying towards that high ceiling. The Dodgers reasonably started him at Class A Great Lakes, but he put up a 1.93 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings and he was quickly bumped to High A Rancho Cucamonga. There, he didn't miss a beat, posting a 2.14 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 80/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings. Up at AA Tulsa well shy of his 22nd birthday, he had a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 41/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings. Gray is exceptionally athletic and we already knew he had solid stuff, but he sharpened everything this year while greatly improving his command and turning himself into the complete package as a potential #1 or #2 starter. Still a few months away from turning 22, Gray is progressing much more quickly than expected and could be next in the line of great Dodgers rookies.
Others: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (1-11, Orioles), SS Nico Hoerner (1-24, Cubs), LHP Shane McClanahan (1-31, Rays), LHP Kris Bubic (2-40, Royals), RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (2-48, Mets)
Stock Down
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (Cartersville [GA] HS -> New York Yankees)
0 HR, .175/.328/.206, 1 SB, 28/20 K/BB, 74 wRC+ at Class A
I wouldn't go calling Seigler a bust right away, but his lost 2019 season certainly didn't go as planned. After beginning the season in extended spring training, he debuted with Class A Charleston in June, and picked up multiple hits in three of his first six games, but he slumped hard over the next 24 and was slashing just .175/.328/.206 when a July cross-up with the pitcher ended his season with him taking a fastball of the knee. In his limited game action, Seigler showed strong plate discipline and feel for catching, but he showed virtually no impact with the bat. That's especially concerning given that his strong plate discipline proved that he wasn't exactly overmatched, so if Seigler doesn't start showing some authority at the plate in 2020, he's likely destined for back-up duty in the majors.
1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island [FL] HS -> Washington Nationals)
1-1, 7.52 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 19/14 K/BB in 20.1 IP at complex level
The Nationals signed Denaburg to an over-slot $3 million deal knowing that he was dealing with biceps issues, hoping he'd be healthy and ready to be turned loose in 2019. Unfortunately, those biceps problems continued over into 2019, holding him out of game action until June. When he did finally get on the mound in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, he wasn't nearly as polished as advertised, posting a 7.52 ERA and walking 14 batters in 20.1 innings across seven appearances. His control regressed and his stuff flattened out, making 2019 a lost season in terms of his development. As a high school draftee, Denaburg only turned 20 in August, but he'll have a lot to prove in 2020, starting with getting healthy.
CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest -> St. Louis Cardinals)
1-7, 6.44 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 36/35 K/BB in 65.2 IP at High A
It's a good thing that Cardinals' 2018 first rounder Nolan Gorman had a strong year, because it's gone just about as poorly as possible for competitive balance pick Griffin Roberts. Two positive tests for marijuana meant that he got slapped with a 50 game suspension to start the 2019 season, so he didn't make it into game action until June. Once he got on the mound for High A Palm Beach, he wasn't nearly as effective as advertised, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out while allowing opponents to hit over .300 against him in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. While he wasn't necessarily known for his command at Wake Forest, it wasn't a weak spot, either, but it certainly was in 2019 when he walked 35 batters and hit 17 in 65.2 innings. His lethal fastball/slider combination, which he certainly was known for in college, played down in the FSL and he didn't miss nearly as many bats as hoped as he consistently fell into hitters' counts. Roberts has always pitched better out of the bullpen and it looks like that will be his best option going forward, where he can hopefully get back on track.
Others: OF Connor Scott (1-13, Marlins), RHP Cole Winn (1-15, Rangers), OF Jake McCarthy (CBA-39, Diamondbacks), RHP Owen White (2-55, Rangers), RHP Jayson Schroeder (2-66, Astros)
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Sunday, September 8, 2019
2019 Minor League Awards
I put together some awards for the top minor leaguers in a few categories. These are strictly performance based and don't have anything to do with prospect status, though prospect status and being at a higher level would give some players the edge over others in close contests. Different minor leagues have very different run scoring environments, and those are very much factored into consideration. For example, the AAA Pacific Coast League is an extremely hitter-friendly environment, the AAA International League and High A California League are hitter-friendly as well, and leagues such as the AA Texas League, High A Florida State League, and the Class A Midwest League lean more pitcher-friendly.
Hitter of the Year
Winner: OF Luis Robert (White Sox High A, AA, and AAA, age 21-22)
32 HR, .328/.376/.624, 36 SB, 170 wRC+ in 122 games
In 2017, a 19 year old Braves prospect slashed .325/.374/.522 with 21 home runs and 44 stolen bases across the three highest minor league levels, then won the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Award. The White Sox hope that 22 year old Luis Robert is halfway to following in Ronald Acuna's footsteps with his huge and eerily similar season across three levels. Robert, who was 21 at the beginning of the season, began at High A Winston-Salem but demolished Carolina League pitching to the tune of a .453/.512/.920 slash line and eight home runs over 19 games before being promoted to AA Birmingham. He continued to rake in the Southern League, hitting eight more home runs and slashing .314/.362/.518 across 56 games, then got promoted again to AAA Charlotte. The ball was flying in AAA this year and all power numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but a .297/.341/.634 with 16 home runs over 47 games is still extremely impressive for someone who started the season down in A ball. The Cuban outfielder is an exceptional athlete with the kind of power/speed combination teams covet, and by crushing 32 home runs in 2019, he proved that getting to that power is no problem whatsoever. He's an aggressive hitter who makes a lot of contact and therefore fails to draw a ton of walks, but because he still hit .328, his .376 on-base percentage remained strong. Eloy Jimenez was the White Sox' top outfield prospect a year ago but Robert has a very good chance to be the better player very soon.
Runner-Up: SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers AA and AAA, age 21)
26 HR, .347/.421/.607, 10 SB, 165 wRC+ in 113 games
A first round pick in 2016 out of a Wisconsin high school, Lux has gotten better and better the longer he has been in the Dodgers system. A mediocre 2017 at Class A Great Lakes translated into a very strong 2018 between High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa, and he returned to the level for 2019. Over 64 games, he slashed .313/.375/.521 with 13 home runs and seven stolen bases, so the Dodgers promoted him across the state to AAA Oklahoma City. The Pacific Coast League is an extremely offense-friendly environment, but even in that context, the numbers he put up in 49 games were ludicrous: 13 home runs, a .392/.478/.719 slash line, and a strong 42/33 strikeout to walk ratio despite being just 21 years old. Together, that meant he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 26 home runs over 113 games, all the while playing strong defense at shortstop and showing his speed on the bases. Lux has power, strong plate discipline, the ability to get on base, some speed, and strong infield defense, leaving very few holes in his game and he's already up in the major leagues contributing with the Dodgers. Unless he somehow reaches 130 at bats this September, he'll be a strong candidate for the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Award after Dodgers won it in both 2016 (Corey Seager) and 2017 (Cody Bellinger), followed by a very strong 2018 performance from Walker Buehler.
Honorable Mention: OF Jarred Kelenic (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 19-20)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games
Jarred Kelenic's numbers might not be as eye popping as the other five players listed here, but he was also the only one who didn't get a turn through homer-happy AAA. Kelenic, the Mets' sixth overall pick out of a Wisconsin high school in 2018 who was traded to the Mariners in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano deal, began the season with Class A West Virginia and quickly hit his way out by slashing .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs in 50 games in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. Bumped up to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League, he held his own against older competition by slashing .290/.353/.485 with six home runs and ten stolen bases in 46 games. A second promotion brought him to AA Arkansas less than a month after his 20th birthday, and he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six home runs over 21 games against much older competition in the pitcher-friendly Texas League. Together, that gave him a 20-20 season, a strong .364 on-base percentage, and a .540 slugging percentage across three levels at a young age, adding in good defense in the outfield along the way. Had Kelenic had the chance to play at AAA Tacoma in the Pacific Coast League, his raw numbers may have rivaled those of Trent Grisham, listed right below in the "others" section.
Others
Brewers OF Trent Grisham (26 HR, .300/.407/.603, 12 SB, 166 wRC+ in 97 games, age 22)
Twins/Giants OF Jaylin Davis (35 HR, .306/.397/.590, 10 SB, 159 wRC+ in 126 games, age 24-25)
Padres 3B Ty France (27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games, age 24-25)
Pitcher of the Year
Winner: RHP Logan Gilbert (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 21-22)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP
Drafted in the first round out of Stetson in 2018, Gilbert didn't pitch professionally that year and first took the mound in the Mariners organization in April. At the close of the season, it's safe to say that it went pretty well. Gilbert started out at Class A West Virginia but lasted just five starts there with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 35/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 22.2 innings before being promoted to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League. Nobody told him that it was an offense-heavy environment, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings. Promoted again to AA Arkansas, he posted a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings, bringing him to 165 strikeouts, a 2.13 ERA, and a sub-1.00 WHIP over 26 starts, half of which came in the California League. His best start of the season came on May 19th, when he shut down a strong Rancho Cucamonga lineup (Dodgers High A) over seven innings, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out eleven. In all, he allowed no more than one earned run in 18 of his 26 starts, and he struck out at least five batters in 21 of 26. Gilbert should be up in the majors at some point in 2020 as a potential future ace.
Runner-Up: RHP James Marvel (Pirates AA and AAA, age 25)
16-5, 2.94 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 136/46 K/BB in 162.1 IP
Marvel lacks the flash of other prospects on this list, and as a 25 year old former 36th round draft pick out of Duke, he still doesn't project to be much more than a #4 or #5 starter. Still, that doesn't take away from the fantastic season he had in 2019. Beginning the year with AA Altoona, he went 9-5 with a 3.10 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an 83/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings – solid numbers, but nothing that rivals the other guys on this list. However, he was promoted to AAA Indianapolis in July to pitch in the very hitter-friendly International League, and he just kicked it into another gear by going 7-0 with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings, helping him lead all minor leaguers with 16 wins and finish fifth with 162.1 innings pitched. The numbers aren't flashy, but the huge body of work combined with the exceptional turn through the International League where very few other pitchers seemed to be able to find their groove makes his final product as impressive as anybody's in Minor League Baseball. Marvel's most impressive start came on July 5th, when in his first game in the International League launching pad, he tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, no walks, and six strikeouts against Toledo (Tigers AAA). He also had Syracuse's (Mets AAA) number, tossing back to back starts of six shutout innings on a combined two hits and sixteen strikeouts (and five walks) on July 18th and 24th.
Honorable Mention: LHP MacKenzie Gore (Padres High A and AA, age 20)
9-2, 1.69 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 135/28 K/BB in 101 IP
MLB Pipeline named MacKenzie Gore their minor league pitcher of the year, and while I can't quite get behind that due to his smaller body of work (Logan Gilbert threw 34 more innings and James Marvel through 61.1 more), there's no denying that Gore was nothing short of brilliant in 2019. The third overall pick of the 2017 draft out of a small town North Carolina high school, Gore showed flashes of what was to come with an up and down 2018 at Class A Fort Wayne (4.45 ERA, 74/18 K/BB), but 2019 was a completely different story altogether. Starting the year at High A Lake Elsinore in the hitter-friendly California League, Gore was as close to untouchable as it gets as he posted a 1.02 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 110/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, totaling just 56 non-error baserunners in 15 starts. He was promoted to AA Amarillo less than six months after his 20th birthday and pitched very well again, though his 4.15 ERA was skewed by his July 19th start against Northwest Arkansas (Royals AA) where he allowed seven earned runs. If you take out that one start, Gore's final ERA and WHIP would be 1.11 and 0.76, respectively, over 97 innings. That's insane. During his time in Lake Elsinore, he allowed more than one run in only one of his 15 starts, and even then he only let two cross the plate in six innings. His last two starts at the level were his best, as he combined for 13.2 shutout innings on six hits, four walks, and one hit batsman while striking out 18, ironically with both of those starts coming against Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers High A), the same team which touched him up for two runs earlier in the season and which Logan Gilbert had his best start against. Gore will probably return to Amarillo in 2020 but could pitch his way to the majors before the season is over.
Others
Dodgers RHP Josiah Gray (11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP, age 21)
Astros RHP Cristian Javier (8-3, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 170/59 K/BB in 113.2, age 22)
Rays RHP Joe Ryan (9-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 183/27 K/BB in 123.2 IP, age 22-23)
Other Notable Seasons
RHP Casey Mize (Tigers High A and AA, age 21-22)
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP
As of June 13th, Mize looked like a lock to not only make the Pitcher of the Year list, but win it handily. The 2018 first overall pick out of Auburn had been absolutely untouchable to that point, with a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings across two levels. On April 29th, his first start at AA Erie less than a year after being drafted, he tossed a no-hitter with seven strikeouts against Altoona (Pirates AA). However, on June 13th, he went down with shoulder issues that kept him out for a month, and he allowed five or more earned runs in three of his first five starts back with AA Erie after two rehab starts at High A Lakeland. Hopefully, Mize puts the shoulder issue behind him and gets back on track in 2020.
RHP James Karinchak (Indians complex, AA, and AAA, age 23)
1-1, 2.67 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 74/17 K/BB in 30.1 IP
A 2.67 ERA over 30 innings isn't going to land you on the short list for pitcher of the year, but Karinchak's season was pretty incredible nonetheless. In all, he struck out 74 of the 125 batters he faced, or 59.2%, which is the best number I've ever seen. Through two playoff games, he's struck out seven of the twelve batter's he's faced, bringing up him up to 81 strikeouts over 137 batters. He struggles with his command and won't be a major league closer immediately, but he misses bats like no other.
3B Ty France (Padres AAA, age 24-25) and 1B Kevin Cron (Diamondbacks AAA, age 26)
Ty France: 27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games
Kevin Cron: 39 HR, .329/.446/.777, 1 SB, 181 wRC+ in 84 games
Of all the big numbers put up in the AAA Pacific Coast League, perhaps no two hitters were more impressive than El Paso's Ty France and Reno's Kevin Cron. France flirted with .400 while hitting for power throughout the season and finished at .399/.477/.770 with 27 home runs in 76 games, while Cron smashed 39 home runs in 84 games while slashing .329/.446/.777 along the way. France had back to back multi-homer games in April and he hit six home runs in a five game stretch in June. On July 25th, he had one of the better offensive performances of the season when he went 5-6 with a pair of home runs against Las Vegas (A's AAA). Meanwhile, Cron hit seven home runs in a six game stretch in May and blasted three home runs on August 13th against Oklahoma City (Dodgers AAA), and together with his five major league home runs, he's already hit 44 on the season despite missing a couple weeks in July.
Hitter of the Year
Winner: OF Luis Robert (White Sox High A, AA, and AAA, age 21-22)
32 HR, .328/.376/.624, 36 SB, 170 wRC+ in 122 games
In 2017, a 19 year old Braves prospect slashed .325/.374/.522 with 21 home runs and 44 stolen bases across the three highest minor league levels, then won the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Award. The White Sox hope that 22 year old Luis Robert is halfway to following in Ronald Acuna's footsteps with his huge and eerily similar season across three levels. Robert, who was 21 at the beginning of the season, began at High A Winston-Salem but demolished Carolina League pitching to the tune of a .453/.512/.920 slash line and eight home runs over 19 games before being promoted to AA Birmingham. He continued to rake in the Southern League, hitting eight more home runs and slashing .314/.362/.518 across 56 games, then got promoted again to AAA Charlotte. The ball was flying in AAA this year and all power numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but a .297/.341/.634 with 16 home runs over 47 games is still extremely impressive for someone who started the season down in A ball. The Cuban outfielder is an exceptional athlete with the kind of power/speed combination teams covet, and by crushing 32 home runs in 2019, he proved that getting to that power is no problem whatsoever. He's an aggressive hitter who makes a lot of contact and therefore fails to draw a ton of walks, but because he still hit .328, his .376 on-base percentage remained strong. Eloy Jimenez was the White Sox' top outfield prospect a year ago but Robert has a very good chance to be the better player very soon.
Runner-Up: SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers AA and AAA, age 21)
26 HR, .347/.421/.607, 10 SB, 165 wRC+ in 113 games
A first round pick in 2016 out of a Wisconsin high school, Lux has gotten better and better the longer he has been in the Dodgers system. A mediocre 2017 at Class A Great Lakes translated into a very strong 2018 between High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa, and he returned to the level for 2019. Over 64 games, he slashed .313/.375/.521 with 13 home runs and seven stolen bases, so the Dodgers promoted him across the state to AAA Oklahoma City. The Pacific Coast League is an extremely offense-friendly environment, but even in that context, the numbers he put up in 49 games were ludicrous: 13 home runs, a .392/.478/.719 slash line, and a strong 42/33 strikeout to walk ratio despite being just 21 years old. Together, that meant he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 26 home runs over 113 games, all the while playing strong defense at shortstop and showing his speed on the bases. Lux has power, strong plate discipline, the ability to get on base, some speed, and strong infield defense, leaving very few holes in his game and he's already up in the major leagues contributing with the Dodgers. Unless he somehow reaches 130 at bats this September, he'll be a strong candidate for the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Award after Dodgers won it in both 2016 (Corey Seager) and 2017 (Cody Bellinger), followed by a very strong 2018 performance from Walker Buehler.
Honorable Mention: OF Jarred Kelenic (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 19-20)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games
Jarred Kelenic's numbers might not be as eye popping as the other five players listed here, but he was also the only one who didn't get a turn through homer-happy AAA. Kelenic, the Mets' sixth overall pick out of a Wisconsin high school in 2018 who was traded to the Mariners in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano deal, began the season with Class A West Virginia and quickly hit his way out by slashing .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs in 50 games in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. Bumped up to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League, he held his own against older competition by slashing .290/.353/.485 with six home runs and ten stolen bases in 46 games. A second promotion brought him to AA Arkansas less than a month after his 20th birthday, and he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six home runs over 21 games against much older competition in the pitcher-friendly Texas League. Together, that gave him a 20-20 season, a strong .364 on-base percentage, and a .540 slugging percentage across three levels at a young age, adding in good defense in the outfield along the way. Had Kelenic had the chance to play at AAA Tacoma in the Pacific Coast League, his raw numbers may have rivaled those of Trent Grisham, listed right below in the "others" section.
Others
Brewers OF Trent Grisham (26 HR, .300/.407/.603, 12 SB, 166 wRC+ in 97 games, age 22)
Twins/Giants OF Jaylin Davis (35 HR, .306/.397/.590, 10 SB, 159 wRC+ in 126 games, age 24-25)
Padres 3B Ty France (27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games, age 24-25)
Pitcher of the Year
Winner: RHP Logan Gilbert (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 21-22)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP
Drafted in the first round out of Stetson in 2018, Gilbert didn't pitch professionally that year and first took the mound in the Mariners organization in April. At the close of the season, it's safe to say that it went pretty well. Gilbert started out at Class A West Virginia but lasted just five starts there with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 35/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 22.2 innings before being promoted to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League. Nobody told him that it was an offense-heavy environment, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings. Promoted again to AA Arkansas, he posted a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings, bringing him to 165 strikeouts, a 2.13 ERA, and a sub-1.00 WHIP over 26 starts, half of which came in the California League. His best start of the season came on May 19th, when he shut down a strong Rancho Cucamonga lineup (Dodgers High A) over seven innings, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out eleven. In all, he allowed no more than one earned run in 18 of his 26 starts, and he struck out at least five batters in 21 of 26. Gilbert should be up in the majors at some point in 2020 as a potential future ace.
Runner-Up: RHP James Marvel (Pirates AA and AAA, age 25)
16-5, 2.94 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 136/46 K/BB in 162.1 IP
Marvel lacks the flash of other prospects on this list, and as a 25 year old former 36th round draft pick out of Duke, he still doesn't project to be much more than a #4 or #5 starter. Still, that doesn't take away from the fantastic season he had in 2019. Beginning the year with AA Altoona, he went 9-5 with a 3.10 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an 83/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings – solid numbers, but nothing that rivals the other guys on this list. However, he was promoted to AAA Indianapolis in July to pitch in the very hitter-friendly International League, and he just kicked it into another gear by going 7-0 with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings, helping him lead all minor leaguers with 16 wins and finish fifth with 162.1 innings pitched. The numbers aren't flashy, but the huge body of work combined with the exceptional turn through the International League where very few other pitchers seemed to be able to find their groove makes his final product as impressive as anybody's in Minor League Baseball. Marvel's most impressive start came on July 5th, when in his first game in the International League launching pad, he tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, no walks, and six strikeouts against Toledo (Tigers AAA). He also had Syracuse's (Mets AAA) number, tossing back to back starts of six shutout innings on a combined two hits and sixteen strikeouts (and five walks) on July 18th and 24th.
Honorable Mention: LHP MacKenzie Gore (Padres High A and AA, age 20)
9-2, 1.69 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 135/28 K/BB in 101 IP
MLB Pipeline named MacKenzie Gore their minor league pitcher of the year, and while I can't quite get behind that due to his smaller body of work (Logan Gilbert threw 34 more innings and James Marvel through 61.1 more), there's no denying that Gore was nothing short of brilliant in 2019. The third overall pick of the 2017 draft out of a small town North Carolina high school, Gore showed flashes of what was to come with an up and down 2018 at Class A Fort Wayne (4.45 ERA, 74/18 K/BB), but 2019 was a completely different story altogether. Starting the year at High A Lake Elsinore in the hitter-friendly California League, Gore was as close to untouchable as it gets as he posted a 1.02 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 110/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, totaling just 56 non-error baserunners in 15 starts. He was promoted to AA Amarillo less than six months after his 20th birthday and pitched very well again, though his 4.15 ERA was skewed by his July 19th start against Northwest Arkansas (Royals AA) where he allowed seven earned runs. If you take out that one start, Gore's final ERA and WHIP would be 1.11 and 0.76, respectively, over 97 innings. That's insane. During his time in Lake Elsinore, he allowed more than one run in only one of his 15 starts, and even then he only let two cross the plate in six innings. His last two starts at the level were his best, as he combined for 13.2 shutout innings on six hits, four walks, and one hit batsman while striking out 18, ironically with both of those starts coming against Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers High A), the same team which touched him up for two runs earlier in the season and which Logan Gilbert had his best start against. Gore will probably return to Amarillo in 2020 but could pitch his way to the majors before the season is over.
Others
Dodgers RHP Josiah Gray (11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP, age 21)
Astros RHP Cristian Javier (8-3, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 170/59 K/BB in 113.2, age 22)
Rays RHP Joe Ryan (9-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 183/27 K/BB in 123.2 IP, age 22-23)
Other Notable Seasons
RHP Casey Mize (Tigers High A and AA, age 21-22)
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP
As of June 13th, Mize looked like a lock to not only make the Pitcher of the Year list, but win it handily. The 2018 first overall pick out of Auburn had been absolutely untouchable to that point, with a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings across two levels. On April 29th, his first start at AA Erie less than a year after being drafted, he tossed a no-hitter with seven strikeouts against Altoona (Pirates AA). However, on June 13th, he went down with shoulder issues that kept him out for a month, and he allowed five or more earned runs in three of his first five starts back with AA Erie after two rehab starts at High A Lakeland. Hopefully, Mize puts the shoulder issue behind him and gets back on track in 2020.
RHP James Karinchak (Indians complex, AA, and AAA, age 23)
1-1, 2.67 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 74/17 K/BB in 30.1 IP
A 2.67 ERA over 30 innings isn't going to land you on the short list for pitcher of the year, but Karinchak's season was pretty incredible nonetheless. In all, he struck out 74 of the 125 batters he faced, or 59.2%, which is the best number I've ever seen. Through two playoff games, he's struck out seven of the twelve batter's he's faced, bringing up him up to 81 strikeouts over 137 batters. He struggles with his command and won't be a major league closer immediately, but he misses bats like no other.
3B Ty France (Padres AAA, age 24-25) and 1B Kevin Cron (Diamondbacks AAA, age 26)
Ty France: 27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games
Kevin Cron: 39 HR, .329/.446/.777, 1 SB, 181 wRC+ in 84 games
Of all the big numbers put up in the AAA Pacific Coast League, perhaps no two hitters were more impressive than El Paso's Ty France and Reno's Kevin Cron. France flirted with .400 while hitting for power throughout the season and finished at .399/.477/.770 with 27 home runs in 76 games, while Cron smashed 39 home runs in 84 games while slashing .329/.446/.777 along the way. France had back to back multi-homer games in April and he hit six home runs in a five game stretch in June. On July 25th, he had one of the better offensive performances of the season when he went 5-6 with a pair of home runs against Las Vegas (A's AAA). Meanwhile, Cron hit seven home runs in a six game stretch in May and blasted three home runs on August 13th against Oklahoma City (Dodgers AAA), and together with his five major league home runs, he's already hit 44 on the season despite missing a couple weeks in July.
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