Thursday, September 11, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

Full list of draftees

While many teams played games with their bonus pool, the Twins went a little more straight up and stuck around slot value for nearly every pick. Minnesota targeted a wide variety of skill sets, from glove-first to big power to power arms, but size was a common thread. Their first six picks were 6'6" on average. Yes, 6'6" on average, including the tallest player in the entire draft in the 6'11" Jason Reitz. I like what they did here overall and I think this will be a strong class.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-16: SS Marek Houston, Wake Forest
Slot value: $4.93 million. Signing bonus: $4.5 million ($432,100 below slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #15. Baseball America: #14.
Previously known for drafting power bats early, Minnesota has moved off of that strategy a bit in recent years (besides Walker Jenkins in 2023) and certainly went a different route with Marek Houston. He's one of the more interesting prospects that got drafted in the first round this year. Recruited as a light hitting shortstop, he took the reins at the premium position for Wake Forest as a true freshman in 2023 despite hitting just .220/.328/.307 in 65 games (the most ever appearances for a Wake Forest freshman). When his bat took a step forward to the tune of a .326/.433/.516 line as a sophomore, scouts took notice. Then when he homered in his first three games of the 2025 season (while picking up ten hits in his first four games), igniting a red hot start to the season in which he carried a .400 batting average through 28 games into late March, his name rocketed towards the top of the draft. At one point he reached as high as #4 on my board, making him the top college bat in the class, but a mid-season slump in which he hit .154/.302/.192 over a 14 game stretch gave his stock a little market correction, bringing him back to the middle of the first round where he probably belonged. Houston stands out first for his glove. He is as slick as they come on the dirt, with all of the actions, body control, and twitch you look for in a plus major league shortstop. With an above average arm, he'll certainly stick there and provide value. The Tampa-area product has always been a competent hitter, with a great combination of patience and pure bat to ball to give him an above average hit tool. The approach played up in the Cape Cod League, too, where he hit .306/.465/.329 with an impressive 22.8% walk rate. In 2025, Houston traded some of his contact for power and managed to send fifteen baseballs over the fence, nearly doubling his previous career high of eight, and now looks like he could hit 10-15 home runs annually in the big leagues at peak. His power shows up almost exclusively to the pull side and plays much better with metal than with wood bats, so that piece of his game does remain a question mark. Overall, Minnesota will look to strike a balance between his previous line drive-oriented approach and his newer one in which he gets a little more coil in his load and a little more uppercut in his bat path, though he still posted very healthy contact rates with the new power-oriented approach. Houston's glove buys his bat significant slack and if he can continue to show impact with wood bats in pro ball, he should be Minnesota's every day shortstop in short order.

CBA-36: RHP Riley Quick, Alabama
Slot value: $2.69 million. Signing bonus: $2.69 million.
My rank: #33. MLB Pipeline: #38. Baseball America: #35.
Minnesota went big righty in the competitive balance round. We regularly hear about draftees starring in other sports – as quarterbacks, wide receivers, shooting guards, and sprinters – but we don't often get offensive linemen making the transition to the diamond. That's exactly what the 6'6", 255 pound Riley Quick did with such success that he earned four star recruiting grades in high school, but he's a pitcher now. The big guy missed most of the 2024 season with Tommy John surgery but was a reliable starter for Alabama in 2025 while showing big stuff to match. His fastball parks in the mid 90's with ease, touching 99 in short stints with sink though he can manipulate the shape into a more traditional four seamer or a cutter. His slider has taken a step forward this year and projects as comfortably above average, often. flashing plus with power snap. The changeup is a bit behind, but again he's working hard to gain consistency there and it should be a reliable third pitch at the big league level if a bit firm. Quick combines his size and athleticism to generate nice extension down the mound and make his already power stuff jump on hitters quicker. His command has come and gone, but it has improved with more consistent time on the mound and with a little fine tuning he could get to average in that regard. Ultimately, the ceiling here is that of a big, durable, hard throwing starting pitcher with two plus pitches and enough command to pitch deep into starts. If the changeup comes along and he holds his command, he has #2 starter upside.

2-54: SS Quentin Young, Oaks Christian HS [CA]
Slot value: $1.76 million. Signing bonus: $1.76 million.
My rank: #65. MLB Pipeline: #37. Baseball America: #56.
Here is the big power bat that we were waiting for. Quentin Young can tout Dmitri and Delmon Young as uncles, and he can swing it with both of them. Already listed at 6'6", 225 pounds, he possesses some of the loudest power in the prep class and he's shown it off everywhere he's gone. Using a big, pull-oriented swing aimed at sending the ball over the left field foul pole, he has launched pitches from high level pitchers on the showcase circuit and at home in Southern California into the stratosphere on more than a few occasions. His operation consists of a high handset, a subtle but tight coil in his hips, a slow leg kick, then a violent unwinding in which he gets his foot down about as late as any hitter I've seen. The moving parts in his swing combined with the violence in his operation does lead to fringy bat to ball, and his approach at the plate could use significant polish as well. Right now, he has the look of a 30+ home run bat with plus-plus power that could be derailed by strikeouts if he doesn't clean things up. Minnesota will work to get him more disciplined around the zone while perhaps streamlining his operation a bit to help him keep his prodigious power without selling out. Drafted as a shortstop, he almost certainly winds up at third base at some point given his size and his average speed that figures to regress a bit as he ages. Young has somewhat heavy feet that limit his range and his actions overall are somewhat raw, and his throws can get inaccurate when he's on the move. At the hot corner, he could more easily channel his massive arm strength (he has been up to 98 on the mound) and potentially become an average defender. The power and bloodlines are the real treat here and Young brings one of the more boom-or-bust profiles in this draft class. Pulling him away from an LSU commitment for slot value in the second round is nice value as well, even if I had him ranked a bit lower than most other boards.

3-88: RHP James Ellwanger, Dallas Baptist
Slot value: $893,000. Signing bonus: $1 million ($107,000 above slot value).
My rank: #91. MLB Pipeline: #76. Baseball America: #94.
James Ellwanger has been one of the better young arms in Texas for a while now, and he has done just enough to maintain that status while not fully putting things together. Elbow issues limited his freshman season at Dallas Baptist in 2024 but he put up a 2.77 ERA and an excellent 40% strikeout rate in the Cape Cod League over the summer, making up any prospect ground he lost in the spring and more. Dallas Baptist handled him very carefully this spring, and he didn't throw more than 75 pitches in a start until mid-April nor more than four innings until May. While he started strong, he hit a rough patch in the middle of the season to temper expectations until some excellent starts against Kennesaw State (6 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 8 K) and Jacksonville State (6 IP, 1 ER, 12 K) in May gave teams something to work with. His mid 90's fastball touches 99 at peak, coming in with big riding life to blow past hitters. His hard slider has looked like his best out pitch at times in his college career, though his truer curveball seemed to eclipse that in 2025 and gives him another swing and miss offering. While he'll need to iron out the consistency, there is no question that he can spin the baseball well. His firm changeup is a fourth pitch. Ellwanger moves extremely well on the mound, showing a clean delivery that produces electric stuff when he's on with strong extension down the mound. The 6'4" righty still comes with additional projection even as a college arm, and overall if you see him on his best days you'd think he could be a #2 starter. However, his command has been very inconsistent throughout his career and his 13.8% walk rate in 2025 was well above what most teams look for. Given that he has also dealt with some nagging injuries that may have impacted his operation in ways we can't see, he'll need more consistent time on the mound to find his command. He certainly has the delivery and athleticism to get there. If Minnesota can keep him on the mound and get him throwing more strikes, the stuff is electric. It could play up even further in the bullpen.

4-119: RHP Jason Reitz, Oregon
Slot value: $635,700. Signing bonus: $633,200 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #191. Baseball America: #232.
The 6'11" Sean Hjelle grew up in the Twin Cities and has carved out a career for the San Francisco Giants. The 6'11" Jason Reitz grew up in the Bay Area, and now he'll look to follow the reverse path to the big leagues back in Minnesota. Reitz began his career at Saint Mary's and while he managed just a 6.85 ERA over two seasons, Oregon loved the size and brought him up north. He was blown up by Rhode Island in his second appearance and struggled with inconsistent command throughout much of the season, but seemed to hit his stride over the second half and was trending up in the lead up to the draft. Reitz doesn't look real on the mound. His towering frame struggles to stay in the camera frame if it's too zoomed in, while his rail-thin build accentuates some of the longest limbs you've ever seen. Should he reach the majors, he would tie Hjelle and Jon Rauch as the tallest pitchers of all time. Reitz' fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches the upper 90's, while he frequently cuts it into the upper 80's to avoid barrels. He can turn it over into a truer slider, though neither pitch stands out as a true swing and miss weapon. Reitz relies heavily on a solid changeup that can really slide off the table when he gets it right, though it can be inconsistent. Despite the long legs, he mostly just steps and throws from an upright delivery, so instead of extending way down the mound and releasing in front of the hitter's face, he instead comes straight down from the clouds. The ultra steep angle creates a unique look hitters that they don't often see or practice and gives all of his pitches downward plane. If Minnesota can help him continue to improve his command while perhaps pushing a secondary pitch forward, he could be a back-end starting pitcher. Given the higher bonus than many expected, they clearly believe they can get there with some of the most unique clay in the draft.

5-149: RHP Matt Barr, SUNY Niagara JC [NY]
Slot value: $475,000. Signing bonus: $762,500 ($287,500 signing bonus).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #136. Baseball America: #223.
The highest drafted JuCo prospect in this year's draft, Matt Barr signed for late third round money rather than attend Tennessee. Scouts don't usually go out of their way to watch Upstate New York JuCo ball, but every time Barr took the ball at SUNY Niagara, it became more and more apparent that they needed to make it happen. The NJCAA Division III Pitcher of the Year, he absolutely carved through the opposition up there with a 1.74 ERA and 94 strikeouts in just 57 innings. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with running action from a low slot, overpowering velocity for the competition he faced and enough to fit right into pro ball. He can really rip through a breaking ball, showing both a curve and a slider that have a chance to be above average with more consistency. For now, they stand out more for their high spin rates than their finish, and he also can drop his arm to get around the slider. At this point, Barr throws with significant effort in his low three quarters delivery and needs to tune up his command, but he is only 19 years old and has plenty of time to get thing streamlined. Meanwhile, the Buffalo-area native is extremely projectable at 6'6" and could easily hold the same velocity while easing up on his delivery as he fills out and gets stronger. It's a reliever-y profile at present, but given his age and projection, there is a ton of upside for Minnesota to tap into. Riley Quick is a stud, but Barr has a chance to be the best pitcher in this Twins class if things break the right way.

6-179: SS Bruin Agbayani, Saint Louis HS [HI]
Slot value: $361,600. Signing bonus: $380,600 ($19,000 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #234. Baseball America: #405.
The second of two high school bats taken by Minnesota, Bruin Agbayani is a very different player from Quentin Young. The son of former Met Benny Agbayani, a valuable outfielder around the turn of the century, Bruin brings a track record of performance and simply impressing scouts. His simple, direct left handed swing (albeit with some slight bat wrap) produces hard line drives around the field with consistency, playing up against strong showcase pitching even if he doesn't face the strongest competition back home in Hawaii. While the power is fringy for now, the ball is starting to jump off his bat a bit more and he could grow into average power as he fills out his 6'2" frame. It's a well-rounded offensive profile that projects to produce consistent if unremarkable numbers for the major league club. Defensively, he played shortstop in high school and figures to see time there at the outset of his pro career, but he figures to move to second base or left field in the long run. The arm strength is fringy and likely won't play on the left side of the infield, while his thicker lower half may cause him to slow down a hair as he ages. If he can stick at second base, he projects nicely as a bat-first starter there who can get on base and provide perhaps 10-15 home runs per season, though he'll be fighting an uphill battle if he is forced to the outfield where there would be more pressure on his bat. Agbayani had previously been committed to Michigan.

12-359: RHP Kolten Smith, Georgia
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #172. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #330.
This is a buy low selection. Kolten Smith flashed a nice combination of stuff and pitchability over his first two years at Georgia even if his ERA began with a five in both, and coming into his junior season he was considered a top two to three round prospect. Unfortunately, the command stagnated in 2025 and he battled inconsistency on his way to his third straight 5+ ERA season, though he did run a nice 31.4% strikeout rate while again seeing time both in the rotation and bullpen. The fastball sits in the low 90's and peaks around 96, and he can work in different variations of running or riding life but overall it's an average pitch. More often than not, he'll cut the fastball a bit around 90 to keep it off barrels, and indeed he gets better results doing so. Beyond the cutter, Smith works in a full spectrum of breaking balls with a tighter slider and a truer curveball, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. There's a changeup too, though it's fringy. There was hope that if he could maintain average command, his deep arsenal and strong 6'3" frame would make him a solid #3 or #4 starter. Instead, with his command remaining shaky and his fastball looking a bit generic, he projects more as a long reliever. There are a lot of building blocks here that could still bring the Central Florida native towards that ceiling as a back-end starting pitcher.

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

Full list of draftees

Chicago seems to have revolved its draft not around its first picks but around later picks. They went massively under slot value with their first three picks and poured that money into two massive over slot bonuses for preps – righty Kaleb Wing in the fourth round and slugger Josiah Hartshorn in the sixth round, both of whom signed for the two highest bonuses in the Cubs' class outside of first rounder Ethan Conrad. While four of the first six picks were bats, it was overall a pitching-heavy class that included nine arms in a ten pick stretch from the seventh through the sixteenth rounds.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-17: OF Ethan Conrad, Wake Forest
Slot value: $4.75 million. Signing bonus: $3.56 million ($1.19 million below slot value).
My rank: #30. MLB Pipeline: #28. Baseball America: #23.
The Cubs saved a ton of money with their first pick, giving #17 overall pick Ethan Conrad just under the slot value of the #25 pick and saving nearly $1.2 million in the process. He's a very interesting case that teams doubtlessly had widely varied opinions on given his somewhat unique path, and it's likely the Cubs see him as a mid-first round talent for the price of a late first rounder. An Upstate New York native, he began his career near home at Marist and turned into one of the best hitters in the MAAC, even setting the NCAA single game record with four triples against St. Peter's in 2024. Amid a torrid run through the Cape Cod League in which he hit .385/.433/.486, he transferred to Wake Forest and hoped to follow the Seaver King route to the top ten. While he started red hot (.372/.479/.744), he made it just 21 games before going down with a shoulder injury. Conrad does a lot of things well on the baseball field. He is built like a power hitter at 6'3", 220 pounds, but employs more of a balanced approach aimed at making high rates of contact and it works. He keeps his strikeout rates low and had no issue with advanced pitching on the Cape, while posting healthy exit velocity data under the hood that points to at least average power in pro ball, perhaps above average if he can consistently elevate. Additionally, despite his size he can show plus speed once he gets going, giving him a shot to play center field at the next level if he can maintain his conditioning. Given the size, there is probably a better chance he fits in an outfield corner, with the potential to be an average right fielder or an above average left fielder. All in all, the profile actually reminds me a lot of a bigger JJ Wetherholt with a physical build, sneaky athleticism, coordination, and high baseball IQ helping all of their tools play up. Conrad has a shot to hit 15-20 home runs annually, perhaps peaking in the 20's some years at his ceiling, with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases. Ian Happ is not a bad comp either, though Conrad is a bit bigger and more athletic.

2-56: OF Kane Kepley, North Carolina
Slot value: $1.68 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($280,000 below slot value).
My rank: #76. MLB Pipeline: #84. Baseball America: #60.
Going back to the college ranks, the Cubs picked up a leadoff type in Kane Kepley. Spending his first two collegiate seasons at Liberty, he became known as one of the toughest outs in the Atlantic Sun Conference and put up a robust .461 on-base percentage over two years as an underclassman. Transferring to UNC for his junior season, his production took a step back but most teams attributed that to luck more than anything else, with the Cubs in particular seeing every bit of the second round prospect he was projected to be. Kepley stands just 5'8" and is often the smallest guy on the field, but his baseball IQ is off the charts. He is extraordinarily disciplined at the plate and walked (14.2%) twice as often as he struck out (7.1%) in 2025, flat out refusing to chase bad pitches out of the zone. That was true against elite pitching in the Cape Cod League last summer as well, where he walked 21.6% of the time and struck out just 11.4%. Kepley's quick, flat swing helps him make contact at an enormous rate, giving him a true plus hit tool overall and perhaps plus-plus if you isolate simply contact quantity from contact quality. Now as you may expect, there isn't much power in the profile. While he popped for nine home runs at Liberty in 2024, he hit just three at UNC in 2025 and registered below average exit velocities. The North Carolina native's size limits the raw power and his flat swing limits the game power, so he likely tops out around 5-10 home runs annually in the big leagues and instead relies on ultra high on-base percentages. Meanwhile, he is a plus runner who stole 45 bases (fourth-most in NCAA Division I) and was caught just four times, good for an elite 91.8% success rate. Just as with his hitting, Kepley's baserunning instincts are excellent and that carries over to defense as well, where he plays at 110 miles per hour in center field with no fear of crashing into walls. If he can find enough gaps to rack up doubles and triples, he has a chance to be a big league leadoff hitter. If he struggles to hit for impact and pitchers start to attack him in the zone and force him to rely on poking the ball through holes, he may profile more as a fourth outfielder whose below average arm precludes him from right field.

3-90: RHP Dominick Reid, Abilene Christian
Slot value: $865,500. Signing bonus: $649,125 ($216,375 below slot value).
My rank: #142. MLB Pipeline: #209. Baseball America: #366.
Dominick Reid marks a third consecutive under slot pick as well as a third consecutive transfer, though while Ethan Conrad and Kane Kepley transferred from smaller programs to bigger ones, Reid went the opposite direction. He spent two years at Oklahoma State, where he pitched just 19.1 combined innings on a deep Cowboys pitching staff. Transferring to Abilene Christian for the 2025 season, he immediately stepped into a much larger role and rewarded the coaching staff's faith, dominating an admittedly weaker schedule with 112 strikeouts over fifteen starts. Highlights included a fifteen strikeout masterpiece against Prairie View A&M in March as well as three dominant starts against Tarleton State, Cal Baptist, and Utah Valley (18 IP, 1 ER, 28/1 K/BB) to end the season. Reid sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with his fastball, but it plays up with carrying action from a lower slot. He works between a running two seamer or a cutter in the opposite direction, keeping off of barrels. Unlike most strikeout pitchers, he does not have a reliable breaking ball at this point, with his slider often backing up on him and spinning softly over the plate without the finishing action to get under barrels. However, he makes up for it with a plus changeup with excellent fading action to miss a ton of bats and make hitters look silly. The Dallas-Fort Worth product has an easy, athletic delivery that lends well to average command, and he especially throws the changeup with a ton of conviction to land it where he wants it. Reid clocks in at 6'3" with an ideal pitcher's frame and some projection remaining, lending confidence he can remain as a starter and perhaps add a tick of velocity. Chicago will tinker with his breaking ball to unlock something usable, and that may ultimately be the difference in whether he can get through a big league lineup multiple times. Ultimately, he should be able to pitch off the fastball and changeup alone in a bullpen role if he can live closer to the mid 90's. This is a fun project for Chicago and exactly the kind of sleeper that could surprise people.

4-121: RHP Kaleb Wing, Scotts Valley HS [CA]
Slot value: $623,300. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($876,700 above slot value).
My rank: #117. MLB Pipeline: #87. Baseball America: #201.
After saving almost $1.7 million over their first three picks, the Cubs dumped about half of those savings into fourth rounder Kaleb Wing, recipient of the third highest bonus in the team's class. In fact, Wing's $1.5 million bonus was close to the slot value of the #61 pick and functioned to keep him from a Loyola Marymount commitment. He reminds me a bit of Billy Carlson, another West Coast two-way prep who went tenth overall to the White Sox, though unlike Carlson, Wing will stick on the mound. He has a low 90's fastball that touches 96, though it has been pushing higher and higher in the velocity department and plays up with significant running action. He drops in a big, two plane curveball with plenty of finish, diving across the plate when he spins it right. While it can pop out of his hand at times and hang up in the zone, it has a chance to be plus in time as he adds power and consistency. Wing has a similarly promising changeup that dives towards the plate, but it can get too soft at times and he'll need to find more consistency. More recently, he has added a slider to the mix to make for a high upside four pitch mix. The 6'2" righty is an excellent athlete that plays a solid shortstop and repeats his delivery well, though he is on the skinnier side and may have less projection than other similarly lanky prep arms. Key for Wing will be continuing to add power across his arsenal, which he has been doing, and getting more consistent with his secondary stuff. There is a chance for three plus pitches in this arsenal if he can do so, and the Cubs are banking on added bulk helping him hold his stuff over a long professional season.

5-151: OF Kade Snell, Alabama
Slot value: $465,400. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($265,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #227. Baseball America: #200.
This is a really nice value pick for the Cubs, who got a really good hitter in Kade Snell for ninth round money here in the fifth round. Snell, who turned 23 shortly after the draft, has had a long, winding college career. He began at Auburn as a pitcher in 2021, but never got into a game due to injuries and transferred to Wallace State JC for two seasons as a two-way player. Returning to the SEC, he joined Alabama in 2024 and again worked as a two-way player, but gave up pitching for his redshirt senior season in 2025 and responded with a huge season at the plate. Snell is a metric monster. When Baseball America released its data through mid-April, he was one of just four hitters to post a contact rate above 90%, with the other three all getting drafted in the top 81 picks. Not only that, but he had the highest 90th percentile exit velocity of any BA 500 hitter with a contact rate above even just 84%, smoking the competition. He has a flat swing that gets long through the zone and is designed to rope line drives around the field, which he does with plenty of authority showing very solid-average top-end exit velocities. The power plays down a tick because the swing is geared more for line drives, but he hits a ton of them. A patient hitter, he draws plenty of walks then rarely misses when he does swing, doing damage against all pitch types and ultimately running a minuscule 6.9% strikeout rate even while facing a tough SEC schedule with Alabama. He hit .342/.435/.456 in 21 games in the Cape Cod League back in 2023, and at this point there's little question that he has one of the best combinations of pro-readiness and impact in the entire draft. While he's a below average runner that will be limited to an outfield corner, he has plenty of arm strength with a fastball that's been up to 93 and should show adequately in either corner. Given his age, he'll expect to move quickly.

6-181: OF Josiah Hartshorn, Orange Lutheran HS [CA]
Slot value: $355,800. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.64 million above slot value).
My rank: #77. MLB Pipeline: #108. Baseball America: #167.
With all the saving going on with every pick but the Kaleb Wing pick, it almost feels like the Cubs coordinated much of their draft to make this pick. Josiah Hartshorn, selected here at pick #181, signed for the second highest bonus in the Cubs' class with a bonus roughly the value of the #49 overall pick early in the second round. He had previously been committed to Texas A&M. A product of powerhouse Orange Lutheran in Southern California that also produced numerous recent big leaguers and top prospects, most notably Gerrit Cole, Hartshorn could wind up the best hitter ever to come out of the school. While he has a long track record of performance against top pitching, he rose late in the draft with strong impressions down the stretch in his senior season of high school ball. He already has a big league body at 6'2", 220 pounds, helping him bring a heavy barrel from both sides of the plate and produce plus power that he's tapping more and more in games. Not just a masher, Hartshorn's experience against top arms has paid off and he manages the strike zone well. With his power coming naturally, he's able to make plenty of contact too. Unfortunately, he's dealt with back and elbow injuries that have thrown a wrench in things, so the hope is that with more consistent time on the field, the hit tool could get to above average to complement the plus power. The nagging injuries have hurt his defense as well, with fringy speed and arm strength that could tick up with increased health or continue to tick down as he ages. Regardless, Chicago is buying a potential 25-30 homer bat that could produce high on-base percentages to boot. If he winds up at first base, that's still plenty of offense to profile.

7-211: LHP Pierce Coppola, Florida
Slot value: $278,500. Signing bonus: $278,500.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #430.
Pierce Coppola is an interesting pick with lots to digest. He was a top prospect in the 2021 draft who ranked #187 on my board that year, but made it to campus at Florida where he figured to step into a big role. Unfortunately, it wasn't until 2024 that he made his second appearance for the Gators after injuries all but wiped out his first two seasons, then he struggled to an 8.75 ERA (albeit with a promising 35/12 K/BB) in 2024. He came out of the gate sharp in 2025 and cut his ERA down to 2.53 while running his strikeout rate to an absurd 46.7%, but went down with an undisclosed injury after seven starts and did not return until the MLB Draft Combine in June after the season. Coppola's fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 at peak, playing up because of the natural extension he creates with his big frame. The 6'8" lefty has inconsistent secondary stuff headlined by a solid slider, while his changeup is a third pitch at this point. He has never thrown more than 23.2 innings in a season and thus it's not surprising that much of his game remains raw, especially for such a lanky kid who needs consistent reps to keep everything in sync, and his command is a similar story to his secondary stuff. Durability is a big concern especially given his age (turning 23 in December) and the amount of ground he needs to cover to get up to speed, so there is a wide range of outcomes here. He's healthy now and Chicago is banking on him staying that way, with the sneaky upside of a starting pitcher. More likely is that the New Jersey native winds up in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination would likely pick up and his massive size would make for an uncomfortable at bat.

15-451: RHP Noah Edders, Troy
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #411.
The Cubs finally grabbed a local kid in the fifteenth round. Noah Edders grew up in Woodridge, a suburb about 22 miles southwest of downtown Chicago, and attended nearby Downers Grove South High School. Beginning his career at Bradley, he worked his way into the rotation to middling results. He transferred south to Troy for the 2025 season and again posted an up and down year, but finished strong with 10.2 (earned) run-less, walk-less innings and nine strikeouts in the MLB Draft League. Edders throws a sinker in the low 90's that tops out around 94 and can mold it into a couple different shapes, giving him a dynamic if average offering to start with. His slider is probably his best pitch with tight, late bite to sneak under barrels, while he also has a less consistent changeup. He's big and physical at a listed 6'4", 230 pounds with a smooth, easy delivery to help him live in and around the zone. While the command isn't pinpoint, it's solid enough and the Cubs likely think the size and delivery point to a durable workhorse starting pitcher who can handle a long, grinding pro season. Getting a bit more consistent with his secondary stuff and perhaps adding a tick to his fastball will help him get to his back-end starter ceiling.

Thursday, September 4, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Full list of draftees

As always, Arizona targeted an athletic, high-contact up the middle prep bat with their first pick, then pivoted to drafting pitchers with six of their next seven picks going into the middle rounds. It's a class full of interesting fastball profiles including a few up into triple digits and one of my favorites in the class coming from Patrick Forbes. While two of their first three picks are listed at 5'10", it was otherwise a class full of size with eleven different draftees (more than half) listed at 6'3" or taller and thirteenth rounder Alex Galvan tipping the scales at 6'6", 245 pounds.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-18: SS Kayson Cunningham, Johnson HS [TX]
Slot value: $4.58 million. Signing bonus: $4.58 million.
My rank: #18. MLB Pipeline: #14. Baseball America: #12.
The Diamondbacks love high contact, athletic, up the middle prep bats and they got their guy in Kayson Cunningham. Many teams have watched Kevin McGonigle's ascent to the top prospect in the Tigers system and arguably in all of baseball. Cunningham shares a similar profile. Undersized at a generous 5'10", he has a chance to be a plus hitter with fringe-average power. His lightning quick left handed swing is super accurate, getting long through the strike zone and driving the ball out to all fields with some mustard on it. He never, ever swings and misses in the strike zone even against high end velocity and breaking stuff. Meanwhile, there is not a ton of power in the profile given his size, but his bat speed helps him generate fringy pop that could help him hit upwards of 10-15 home runs per season at the major league level with averages over .300. Drafted as a shortstop, he is a plus runner with good range that can get to balls all over the dirt. His arm is closer to average than plus and while he could potentially stick at shortstop, he's better at flipping the ball over to first base than he is at reaching back and gunning it so second base might be the best fit, where he could be a plus defender. The San Antonio native is old for the class, having turned 19 before the draft, but McGonigle was old for the class too and it's worked out just fine for him. Cunningham is an exciting young player and if he can continue to hit for some pop with wood bats, he could be an All Star in Arizona.

1C-29: RHP Patrick Forbes, Louisville
Slot value: $3.19 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($191,100 below slot value).
My rank: #32. MLB Pipeline: #31. Baseball America: #47.
Patrick Forbes is a really fun arm with some of the highest upside of any pitcher in the class if he can put it together. He couldn't find the strike zone as a freshman and barely pitched, walking 15 of the 51 batters he faced (29.4% walk rate), but pulled it together enough to hold down a swingman role as a sophomore in 2024. He then dominated his way through non-conference play in 2025 (39/3 K/BB in 21 IP) and pushed his way into the first round conversation, but did not fare nearly as well in ACC play and lost a good chunk of his prospect stock when he walked seven batters in three innings at NC State in April. However, he righted the ship somewhat as the season came to a close, including racking up 32 strikeouts in three starts during Louisville's NCAA Tournament run to the College World Series. Forbes has explosive stuff. It's what I call a "rocket ship" fastball, exploding out of his hand with mid 90's velocity and big riding action, topping out in triple digits. He works between a sweeping slider and a sharper bullet slider, giving him an above average breaker when he rips it right. At this point, Forbes primarily pitches off the fastball and slider and the Diamondbacks will need to help bring his changeup along. The 6'3" righty creates a low release point with his short arm action, making the riding action on his fastball all the more impressive so that it can absolutely eat up in the zone. As has been made clear, his command comes and goes. Some days, he's around the zone and looks like he could have average command. On others, he can't find the zone. Honing that in will be the biggest key for Forbes remaining a starter, though the fastball/slider combination would be absolutely nasty out of the bullpen, where he could live in the upper 90's. Even without a reliable changeup, the stuff is so electric that it's not necessarily a hurdle so long as the command is taken care of. Arizona has had success with Kentuckian starting pitchers like Brandon Webb and Brandon Pfaadt, so Patrick Forbes will hopefully be next in line.

3-92: RHP Brian Curley, Georgia
Slot value: $839,100. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($139,100 below slot value).
My rank: #149. MLB Pipeline: #102. Baseball America: #216.
Sticking with the power arms, Brian Curley brings more triple digit velocity following Patrick Forbes. He began his career at VCU and rode a big sophomore season into an opportunity to transfer to Georgia, where he began in the bullpen but worked his way into the rotation. Curley's fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 100 in short stints, coming in with huge riding action from a higher slot. His hard, tight slider is his primary offspeed pitch with late dive under bats, while he can soften it up into a curveball or changeup if needed. The first two are more reliable than the latter two, which mostly serve as change of pace offerings to keep hitters off his power stuff. While the fastball/slider Forbes clocked in at a listed 6'3", 220 pounds, Curley is much stockier at 5'10", 210 pounds. The size combined with his high effort delivery and fringy command will likely push him to the bullpen, where he can live in the upper 90's and dice hitters up with his slider. The Richmond-area native also brings a fiery personality on the mound perfect for relief work, and I think both he and Arizona would love to have him on the mound closing games at Chase Field. While both he and Forbes were college juniors, he is more than a thirteen months older than Forbes and turned 22 more than a month before the draft, making him the age of a senior sign. Regardless, he should move quickly in a relief role or the Diamondbacks could try him out as a starter and see if they can better apply his natural athleticism to his delivery.

4-123: RHP Dean Livingston, Hebron Christian HS [GA]
Slot value: $611,300. Signing bonus: $1 million ($388,700 above slot value).
My rank: #125. MLB Pipeline: #95. Baseball America: #152.
Lacking a second round pick, Arizona spent big on fourth rounder Dean Livingston, a Georgia commit, and gave him a seven figure signing bonus akin to the #81 overall pick early in the third round, three hundred thousand more than their own third rounder Brian Curley. Livingston is pretty much how you draw it up as a prep pitching prospect. Listed at 6'4", 205 pounds with an ideal combination of present physicality and future projection, he certainly looks the part. Presently, the fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and reached as high as 97 this spring, and he throws distinct four and two seam fastballs. His breaking balls don't stand out with fairly pedestrian tilt, though he does show good aptitude to land them where he needs them. His changeup is usually pretty firm, but he can show nice fade at times. In all, Arizona is buying the athlete and what could be. Besides the presently above average velocity, the Atlanta-area product has a very clean, athletic delivery that appears destined to add even more velocity without sacrificing command. In fact, besides the lack of a standout secondary pitch, one of the only potential holes in the profile is that his delivery may be too clean, giving hitters a straightforward look at what is coming out of his hand. Despite the lack of deception, he throws plenty hard already and stays around the strike zone, and if he can take a step forward across the board with his offspeed stuff, he has a nice ceiling as a #3 or #4 starter.

5-153: OF Nathan Hall, South Carolina
Slot value: $456,400. Signing bonus: $456,400.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #281.
Arizona's first college bat of the class is another upside play. Nathan Hall spent two years at Clemson, where he primarily came off the bench and started just 20 of the 51 games he played in, with unremarkable offensive numbers. He transferred to rival South Carolina this year and proved that all he needed was consistent playing time, this time starting 54 of the Gamecocks' 57 games in what was unfortunately a season to forget in Columbia. Hall has a projectable, athletic frame at 6'3" and a balanced profile that brings some upside too. While he's a relatively aggressive hitter, he shows strong plate coverage and ran just an 11.7% strikeout rate, leading USC with a .322 batting average in the process. He produces sneaky raw power and while he put up just seven home runs in 2025, he shows plus top-end exit velocities that might help him profile for average or better game power in the future. Right now, his swing is more geared towards ground balls and he doesn't always get his A swing off, so helping him a) get better pitches to hit and/or b) trade some contact for more power in the air could give him 15-20 home runs per season or better. All in all, it's one of the better contact/power combinations in the class, even if he doesn't tap it quite yet and chases too much. Meanwhile, Hall is an above average runner and has shown well in center field, where he could stick if Arizona needs him to. That would certainly take some pressure off his bat as it develops towards its ceiling. There is much more upside than you'd think here for an SEC (i.e., not unknown) bat who was drafted far above where he ranked on most public boards as a potential everyday center fielder or a solid fourth outfielder.

8-243: RHP Jack Martinez, Arizona State
Slot value: $223,100. Signing bonus: $167,330 ($55,770 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #242.
This is a fun senior sign for a bit of a discount. While he's not a desert native, Jack Martinez will need to travel just eight miles from school to his new big league home. Martinez grew up in Corpus Christi and stayed relatively close to home for two years at Trinity University in San Antonio, then transferred to Louisiana-Lafayette for a good-not-great junior season in 2024. Transferring a second time to Arizona State for his senior season, he racked up strikeouts in bunches with five different double digit strikeout games (including a dozen K's against rival Arizona) and finds himself a Diamondback. Martinez sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, reaching back for as much as 97 to blow by hitters. He throws a distinct slider and curveball, though neither stand out and can look loopier than sharp. His changeup is his best pitch, fading at the last minute and helping him run those high strikeout numbers. The 6'4" righty has the size to start but uses a high effort delivery with huge lower half extension, impacting his strike throwing. He ran a career best 9.7% walk rate in 2025, but that was more a product of scattered strikes than it was of true command and he got hit when he left the ball over the plate. Interestingly, Martinez commands his offspeed stuff better than his fastball, meaning he'll have to steal strikes with those pitches instead. It does give hitters a different look and would work really well in short stints in the bullpen, where he could approach the upper 90's at peak velocity. If he can find a way to fine tune his fastball command to match his offspeed command, there is upside of a #4 or #5 starter there. As a senior sign, Martinez turned 22 back in March.

11-333: LHP Luke Dotson, Mississippi State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($350,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Luke Dotson spent two years at Mississippi State, taking on a relief role as a sophomore to moderate success, then announced his intention to transfer to Texas for the 2026 season. Firmly committed to the Longhorns and falling out of the top ten rounds, it seemed highly likely that Dotson was heading for Austin, but the Diamondbacks gave him fifth round money to come to the desert instead. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, but plays up with riding and cutting action from a deceptive slot. His curveball gets nice dive over the plate, while his changeup gives him a third usable pitch against righties. Right now, the fastball is more consistent than the breaking balls and the command is closer to fringy than average, so for now he projects more as a reliever. However, the Diamondbacks seem to love his fastball and see a relatively easy, athletic delivery and a physical 6'4" frame and may think they can push him into the rotation. Transitions in the opposite direction are usually more fruitful, but reliever -> starter does work sometimes as well. For it to work, Arizona will bank on that size helping him hold his average fastball velocity deeper into starts while bringing his secondaries along. The curveball in particular shows promise of becoming a potential above average pitch.

18-543: RHP Raul Garayzar, Arizona
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Raul Garayzar gives the Diamondbacks a second Arizona college product and this time, he's an Arizona native. Garayzar grew up in Rio Rico, a small town just north of the border near Nogales, then started his college career at South Mountain JC in Phoenix. He transferred to Arizona for his final two seasons, and though he didn't do much as a junior, he was a valuable swingman for the Wildcats as a senior and put up a 2.81 ERA in hitter-friendly conditions. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95, not overwhelming velocity but its running action helps him keep the ball on the ground consistently. There's nice sweep on his slider but his changeup may be his best pitch with a ton of running action moving the opposite direction of his cutting fastball. The 6'4" righty is a big guy who generates his velocity pretty easily with a smooth, repeatable delivery that helps him show solid command. It's probably a long relief role without a ton of ceiling, but a very nice hometown get.

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles

Full list of draftees

With two compensation picks after losing Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander, a CBA pick from the Bryan Baker trade, and a CBB pick won in the competitive balance lottery, the Orioles had six of the first 69 picks, four beyond what the draft would normally give a team. Because of that, despite picking nineteenth in the draft, they had the largest bonus pool of any team by a whopping $2 million margin. With all those resources, they put together a fantastic class headlined by four bats at the top and seven bats in their first nine picks. I really like the talent they pulled in, with a few picks that I thought no way would they have a chance to draft. One interesting trend was small schools, including schools like Ashland University (OH), University of the Cumberlands (KY), Mineral Area JC (MO), Johnson County JC (KS), and many others. They also pulled in some fantastic names like Ike Irish, Wehiwa Aloy, Slater de Brun, Jaiden Lo Re, and KK Clark.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-19: C Ike Irish, Auburn
Slot value: $4.42 million. Signing bonus: $4.42 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #7. MLB Pipeline: #11. Baseball America: #13.
Letting Ike Irish get to the Orioles at pick #19 was a mistake, especially given his slot value signing bonus. There might not be a better pure bat in the class. Irish was a member of the vaunted Orchard Lake St. Mary's Prep team in Michigan that included Alex Mooney (Guardians), Nolan Schubart (Guardians), and Brock Porter (Rangers), where he earned interest in the top couple of rounds but stood firm in his commitment to Auburn. He hit the ground running on The Plains, and after three seasons and 160 games he can look back on 39 home runs and a .350/.435/.625 slash line for the Tigers. Irish sets up from a wide base and gets his barrel long through the zone, and while his flat swing was initially more geared for line drives, he has been getting it up in the air more and more with 6, 14, and 19 home runs in each of his three seasons, respectively. There is plus raw power in the tank that has gone from playing average to now above average in games. Previously a relatively aggressive hitter, he has trended in the right direction with his approach too and upped his walk rate from 9.5% to 10.6% to 12.8%. Getting better pitches to hit has helped him tap his power more in games, with his .469 on-base percentage and .710 slugging percentage both representing career highs in 2025. While you would think Irish a slugger, he actually stands out the most for his bat to ball, running excellent contact rates both inside and outside the zone and proving extremely difficult to strike out. In fact, he hit over .300 with an on-base percentage over .400 in a 62 game sample over two seasons in the elite Cape Cod League, proving one of the most professional bats in the class. His combination of big league physicality, hand-eye coordination, and improving loft and patience makes him a potential middle of the order masher in Baltimore. At peak, he could crush 25+ home runs per season while posting high batting averages. While his bat will play anywhere, Baltimore really hopes he can stick behind the plate. He's fringy back there for now with some clunkier actions, leading Auburn to play him primarily in right field in 2025, though he does have a strong arm. With robo-umps coming, Irish might have a better shot to stick, though he'll need to clean up the blocking. If not, his below average speed will make him a fringy but playable defender in an outfield corner. I am a big fan of this bat and frankly I think he'll be valuable even if he's a DH, which he won't be quite yet.

1C-30: C Caden Bodine, Coastal Carolina
Slot value: $3.11 million. Signing bonus: $3.11 million.
My rank: #37. MLB Pipeline: #32. Baseball America: #29.
The second straight catcher to start off the draft, Caden Bodine has a very, very different profile from Ike Irish. While Irish is a masher who may not stick behind the plate, Bodine is an ultra high contact bat who certainly will. His bat to ball is the stuff of legends. He consistently runs contact rates hovering around 90%, which is 70 grade territory, and he can go weeks without swinging and missing inside the strike zone. His strikeout rate in 2025 was a minuscule 7.7%, the third lowest of any college bat on my draft list (behind Jake Cook's 6.7% [Blue Jays] and Kane Kepley's 7.1% [Cubs]), the product of a simple, effortless swing that he repeats from both the left and right side of the plate with the utmost consistency. That was the case in the Cape Cod League as well, where he hit .382 and struck out just 12.6% of the time against some of the best pitchers college baseball has to offer. Now, that high contact approach comes with limited power. While he crushed eleven home runs as a freshman in 2023, he dropped to nine in 2024 and finished 2025 with just five. He runs pedestrian exit velocities and his stocky 5'10" frame is maxed out. This will not be a bat that challenges for double digit home run totals too often. Instead, it's more of a Mike Redmond-like profile that will get on base at a high clip for a long time. Meanwhile, Bodine is a sound defender who blocks well and really stands out for his framing, lauded as among the best in college baseball. So if we get robo umps, Baltimore is covered with Irish, and if we don't, Bodine will continue to steal strikes at a high clip. The South Jersey native has average arm strength, but it plays up because he gets rid of the ball quickly with accurate throws. To my eye, I see quite a few similarities to Kevin Bazzell coming out of Texas Tech a year ago, albeit with a slightly elevated profile all-around except in the power department, though Bazzell has struggled in the Nationals organization this year.

1C-31: SS Wehiwa Aloy, Arkansas
Slot value: $3.04 million. Signing bonus: $3.04 million.
My rank: #24. MLB Pipeline: #17. Baseball America: #16.
Judging by most public rankings, I was one of the lower guys on Wehiwa Aloy and even I look at this as a steal. Aloy seemed more likely to hear his name in the teens than to drop into the thirties, yet the Orioles scooped him up at #31 and didn't even have to go over slot value to sign him. He began his career at Sacramento State, where he was named WAC Freshman of the Year and was a near-consensus First Team Freshman All-American, picking up the honor in virtually every publication but Baseball America. Transferring to Arkansas for his sophomore season, he couldn't quite replicate the success against SEC pitching as his batting average fell over one hundred points and his slugging percentage nearly two hundred. However, he showed extremely well on the Cape that summer (.309/.352/.642) and rode that success to a huge junior year in 2025, hitting .350/.434/.673 with 21 home runs in 65 games on his way to winning college baseball's most prestigious award – the Golden Spikes Award. Aloy is a ballplayer, to say the least. Clocking in at a listed 6'2", 200 pounds, he quietly taps plus raw power with a leveraged swing that he keeps under control and deploys to all fields. That power has given him 49 home runs in 181 career college games, plus eight in 21 games with wood bats on the Cape. He is an extremely aggressive hitter that has upped his walk rate from 5.7% as a freshman to 9.1% as a sophomore to 10.3% as a junior, but he's up there to hack. Aloy gets into trouble expanding the zone and has pretty consistently run strikeout rates in the 20% range virtually everywhere he's gone, which is a tad high for a first round college bat, but it simply has not impacted his production at all and no matter the caliber of arms he faces, the results seem to be the same – loud. He does not get cheated in his at bats and if he's going to come up empty, he'll come up empty three times on three "A" swings. Usually, he connects with one of them and he's finding extra bases. The feel for the barrel is excellent even if he swings and misses a fair amount, especially outside the zone. Sooner or later the aggressive approach may catch up with him, so the Orioles will watch for that as he reaches the upper levels of the minors and beyond. Aloy can move pretty well but lacks the plus speed of many big league shortstops, instead relying on improving glovework and a strong arm to get the job done. At this point, the Hawaiian has made enough progress defensively that he looks the part of a big league shortstop that can pick it with the pros, and if a Gold Glover forces him to second or third base, he could be a plus defender at either. The ultimate projection here could be 25+ home runs annually, though the on-base percentages could really end up anywhere.

CBA-37: OF Slater de Brun, Summit HS [OR]
Slot value: $2.63 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($1.37 million above slot value).
My rank: #26. MLB Pipeline: #24. Baseball America: #30.
After signing college bats to slot value bonuses with their first three picks, the Orioles went way over slot value to give Slater de Brun a $4 million bonus and divert him away from a Vanderbilt commitment, money that represents roughly the value of the #22 pick. There has been a recent trend of undersized, powder keg prep outfielders from west of the Mississippi coming through following Jett Williams (Mets) and Slade Caldwell (Diamondbacks), and de Brun fits that mold. Generously listed at 5'10", 185 pounds, de Brun like Williams and Caldwell plays well above his size. He has a quick, adjustable left handed swing geared for line drives, and when combined with advanced plate discipline he is constantly finding his way on base and battering pitches all around the zone. There is solid pure bat to ball in the profile as well, and he had no trouble with Oregon high school pitching this year. Once he gets to two strikes, he widens his stance and limits his stride so as to make for one of the toughest strikeouts in prep baseball. While he's undersized, he has worked hard to pack strength onto his smaller frame and came out this spring looking pretty chiseled, giving what was previously well below average power a chance to get to fringy. It may not sound like much, but a potential .300 hitter with high on-base percentages knocking 10-15 home runs per season is an All Star. That's especially true when you consider de Brun's plus-plus speed and plus glovework in center field, giving him a shot to steal bases in bunches while competing for Gold Gloves out there. The Bend, Oregon native is a high-IQ baseball player with excellent instincts, strong makeup, and a high energy style of play that will endear him to Orioles fans quickly upon his arrival in a few seasons. To top it off, he is relatively young for the class and only turned 18 a month before the draft. Baltimore hopes it has its leadoff man and center fielder of the future here.

2-58: LHP Joseph Dzierwa, Michigan State
Slot value: $1.6 million. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($100,600 below slot value),
My rank: #53. MLB Pipeline: #74. Baseball America: #50.
Pivoting to their first pitcher of the class after four straight bats, the Orioles also began to slowly recoup the seven figure hole they dug themselves into with their bonus pool after taking Slater de Brun in the competitive balance round. Joseph Dzierwa is a very interesting under slot candidate and one which I will enjoy following. A native of tiny Haskins, Ohio, about fifteen miles southwest of Toledo, he headed north to Michigan State for college and almost immediately jumped into the front of the Spartans rotation. After two solid seasons, he broke out with a massive 2025 in which he put up a 1.42 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 137/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.2 innings, enough to earn Big Ten Pitcher of the Year accolades. Perhaps his most impressive outing came on May 2nd, when he tossed a complete game, three hit shutout against eventual #12 national seed Oregon, striking out eleven against zero walks. Dzierwa is not a power pitcher, instead combining his size, handedness, and command to keep hitters perpetually off balance. The fastball sits in the low 90's and scrapes 95 at peak, but plays up with huge running action and extension. He works between a big, diving slider and a tighter cutter, while his above average changeup gives him a weapon against right handed hitters. There is no plus pitch in the arsenal and he'll especially need to sharpen up his breaking ball a bit, but he dots everything with plus command of all of his pitches, staying ahead of the count and in control of at bats. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that he stands 6'8". That makes the entire at bat that much more uncomfortable for opposing hitters, especially lefties who see his three quarters arm slot firing the ball from behind their backs. If Dzierwa can add a couple ticks of velocity and sharpen his breaking balls, he has mid-rotation starter upside. There is a ton to work with in this profile and Baltimore's pitching development will certainly have fun helping the lanky lefty reach his ceiling.

CBB-69: RHP JT Quinn, Georgia
Slot value: $1.22 million. Signing bonus: $1.15 million ($76,300 below slot value).
My rank: #129. MLB Pipeline: #127. Baseball America: #144.
While Josep Dzierwa was the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year, JT Quinn might have flown a bit more under the radar on the national scene as a swingman at Georgia, though he had local scouts pounding the table for him especially down the stretch. He put up some strong performances in May then dominated in his three starts in the Cape Cod League just before the draft (2.57 ERA, 25/2 K/BB in 14 IP). Standing 6'6", he's nearly as tall as the 6'8" Dzierwa, but that is where the similarities end. Quinn was a well-known prospect out of high school and could have gone in the top five rounds if he was signable, but he instead opted to attend Ole Miss. Splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen, he carried a 7.35 ERA over two seasons and transferred to Georgia, where he really put it together down the stretch as stated above. Quinn is a power arm with a mid 90's fastball that reaches as high as 98 in short stints, while his power slider as been refined into a true plus breaking ball. He's much more consistent with the slider than he is with his curveball, which he struggles to get down in the zone. Unlike most college pitchers who at least show a changeup from time to time, Quinn works entirely without one. He is extremely physical with an over the top delivery and ultra high release point, putting angry downhill plane on his pitches. The Tampa native has been honing his command as of late and walked just two of his 58 opponents on the Cape, lending a real possibility that he could start. He'll have to add a changeup and stay healthy in order to do so, but it looks much more likely than it did a few months ago. If not, he has shown he can be nasty as a fastball/slider power arm out of the bullpen.

3-93: OF RJ Austin, Vanderbilt
Slot value: $826,400. Signing bonus: $823,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #104. MLB Pipeline: #112. Baseball America: #189.
Two years ago, the Orioles picked up a speedy, high baseball IQ outfielder out of Vanderbilt in Enrique Bradfield. They're doing it again with RJ Austin. Like Ike Irish and JT Quinn, he was a highly regarded prep prospect that could have gone in the top couple of rounds, and over the past three seasons he has started 181 of Vanderbilt's 184 games. While he went through an abysmal slump in 2025, at one point going hitless for nearly three straight weeks (0-27 in 8 games) and finishing with unremarkable numbers, his under the hood numbers were better than the surface stat line and he remains an extremely fun player to watch go to work. Austin makes a ton of contact both inside the strike zone and out of it, slashing at the baseball with a quick right handed swing that is most certainly not geared for power. Still, he packs a lot of twitch into his 5'11" frame and produces solid exit velocities, lending hope that he could tap into some fringy power if he starts to elevate the ball more. For now, that's not his game and he actually dropped from seven home runs as a freshman to five as a sophomore to just two as a junior in 2025. Despite Austin's struggles at times in 2025, the Orioles remain convinced his combination of bat to ball, all fields approach, and sneaky pop could help him flirt with .300 batting averages in the majors. The Atlanta native did show well over two summers on the Cape (.325/.404/.433 in 44 games) and has shown the ability to make adjustments in the past. He is also a plus runner and knows his way around the outfield, giving him a shot to play center field or at least fill in there from time to time. However, his below average arm will push him to left field if he's pushed out of center. Austin is a high energy ballplayer that constantly finds ways to help his teams win games and will make for a great fourth outfielder at his median projection, with the potential for more if he can tap a little bit of power and stick in center field.

4-124: SS Colin Yeaman, UC Irvine
Slot value: $605,300. Signing bonus: $602,800 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #71. MLB Pipeline: #97. Baseball America: #172.
This has a chance to be a really sneaky good pick. Back east, we don't always think too much about the smaller West Coast programs, but those California mid-majors can really play some sound baseball and Colin Yeaman exemplifies that. He spent two years at the College of the Canyons in his hometown of Santa Clarita, where he torched California JuCo pitching to the tune of a .417/.510/.729 line. JuCo pitchers were thrilled when he transferred across the Los Angeles area down to UC Irvine, where at one point he put together back to back hitting streaks of 13 and 21 games. He is extraordinarily patient at the plate to the point where he can get too passive at times and allow pitchers to get ahead of him in the count, but that does mean that he almost never chases and won't get himself out. He has a very simple right handed swing with a slight uppercut that helps him not only make consistent contact, but make the most of his fringy raw power. You often hear about hitters with plus raw power that plays down in games, but he's the opposite with his fringy raw playing up into average game power. When Yeaman makes contact, you know that it will be his pitch and his A swing. Meanwhile, he possesses fringy supplemental tools that may push him to second base in the long run, where his bat could still carry him to an everyday role. The Orioles drafted him as a shortstop and he may have just enough arm strength and range to make it work, at least in a utility role. He projects for 15 home runs per season and high on-base percentages at his ceiling.

5-154: SS Jaiden Lo Re, Corona Del Sol HS [AZ]
Slot value: $452,000. Signing bonus: $562,500 ($110,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #413.
Going off the beaten path a bit, the Orioles grabbed Jaiden Lo Re off a loaded Corona Del Sol High School program that also included the more famous Brett Crossland, who spurned draft offers and is on his way to play for the Texas Longhorns. Lo Re is yet another ultra high contact type that slashed his way through strong Phoenix-area pitching with a linear right handed swing that gets on plane early and stays long through the zone. He easily sprays line drives around to all parts of the park, but at a smaller 5'11" and without much tendency to lift the ball, he has below average power. Unless the Orioles change up his approach in a major way, he likely does not reach double digit home runs, but he's yet another candidate to hit .300 in the majors. Lo Re plays shortstop now and has enough defensive explosiveness to profile there in a part time role, though like Colin Yeaman he might be stretched there if he has to play there every day. He could end up at second or third base, where his average defensive tools fit better. Like other players in this Orioles class, he has been described as a high energy player on both sides of the ball. His signing bonus was nearly a round above his slot value and he'll come to Baltimore rather than play for BYU.

6-184: LHP Caden Hunter, Southern California
Slot value: $347,100. Signing bonus: $344,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #149. Baseball America: #261.
The Orioles are getting a development project in Caden Hunter. Like Colin Yeaman, he spent two years in the California JuCo ranks, though his Sierra JC in Northern California never played Yeaman's College of the Canyons down in SoCal. He transferred to Southern Cal in 2025, where he pitched to inconsistent results but piqued teams' interests with a velocity bump late in the season. Typically sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and topping out around 95 early in games, Hunter hit 97 in some shorter outings leading up to the draft. The fastball plays up further with high riding action from a three quarters, crossfire slot. Hunter has a below average slider that backs up on him more often than it bites, while his average changeup gives him a somewhat reliable secondary offering. With some extra movement in his delivery including some rocking back and forth and a crouch as he delivers across his body, his command can get inconsistent and he walked 11.4% of his opponents in 2025. Still, there are reasons to like this pick. The 6'2" lefty is plenty physical and has the build to handle a full season in a major league rotation, and he moves well on the mound despite the average stuff. If the Orioles can streamline his delivery a little bit and find a breaking ball for him, he has a very decent shot to become a left handed back-end starting pitcher. If not, he likely winds up as a fastball/changeup long reliever.

Sunday, August 24, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers followed their usual formula in 2025, going at or under slot with each of their first five picks and eleven of their first twelve, heading into the back half of the draft with significant cash to burn. They ended up spending almost all of it, but fell a little short of their full allotment and left five players unsigned, the most of any team. In fact, not a single draftee in the last ten rounds signed for at or below the allotted $150,000 – all five signed for anywhere between $225,000 and $757,500. The Brewers drafted twelve high schoolers in all, more than any other team, and signed nine of them, also the most of any team. It's a very boom or bust draft although they played it safe with a polished bat (Andrew Fischer) and a polished arm (JD Thompson) as two of their first three picks. With four of the first 68 picks, they also had more room to work than most teams.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-20: 3B Andrew Fischer, Tennessee
Slot value: $4.27 million. Signing bonus: $3.5 million ($768,100 below slot value).
My rank: #28. MLB Pipeline: #29. Baseball America: #28.
Milwaukee saved over three quarters of a million dollars with this pick (giving Fischer the value of the #26 pick), but that doesn't mean they aren't starting things with a bang. Andrew Fischer has one of the very best bats in this entire class and was one of the most visible hitters in college baseball this year as the centerpiece to Tennessee's always-potent lineup. A native of the Jersey Shore, he began his career at Duke where he was one of the Blue Devils' better hitters as a freshman, then transferred to Ole Miss and improved despite stepping up to face even better competition in the SEC. Not content with Oxford, he transferred a second time alongside Liam Doyle to Tennessee, where he took yet another step forward with the bat slashing .341/.497/.760 with 25 home runs in 65 games. Fischer has above average raw power, but he maximizes every ounce of it for plus power in games as he is elite at elevating the baseball with authority. His uppercut left handed swing is regularly on time and he makes his best contact up in the air. An aggressive hitter when he began at Duke, he started to rein in his approach at Ole Miss and by 2025 he was never, ever chasing, running an elite 21.6% walk rate to push his on-base percentage near .500. That combination of power, launch angle, and patience to get the right pitch to drive helps him score very well on team models. If there is one drawback in his offensive profile it is his pure bat to ball, as he swings and misses in the zone just a little more than you'd like to see from a first round bat. Pro pitchers will attack him in the zone, but they'll be doing so at their peril as he has the potential for 25-30 home runs per season with high, walk-driven on-base percentages in the bigs. His bat is well ahead of his glove, where he'll have to work hard to provide value. He's a below average runner and his range is a bit stretched at third base, though he does have enough arm strength to make it work. While he played a lot of third base at his first two schools, he played mostly first base at his third school. He could also end up in an outfield corner. Regardless, his bat is loud and the Brewers are drafting him to stick in the middle of their order. Fischer has a loud personality and was simultaneously one of the most beloved players in Knoxville and one of the most hated players in the rest of the SEC. Mixing New Jersey and the Deep South was always going to be interesting.

1C-32: SS Brady Ebel, Corona HS [CA]
Slot value: $2.97 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($220,900 below slot value).
My rank: #73. MLB Pipeline: #64. Baseball America: #42.
At most high schools, getting drafted 32nd overall would make you the highest drafted player in a generation, if not in school history. For Brady Ebel, though, it only meant he was the third player drafted off his team in the same draft, following Pirates #6 pick Seth Hernandez and White Sox #10 pick Billy Carlson. The son of Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, Brady began his career at Etiwanda High School but transferred to powerhouse Corona High School after two years. Ebel has long been a well-known name in this class and has had first round buzz for years. His stock started to fade just a bit over the last calendar year and most had second round grades on him, but the Brewers remained sold and gave him a slight under slot bonus to step away from an LSU commitment. Despite being one of the younger players in the class and not turning 18 until after the draft, he brings a very polished game befitting of the son of a major league coach. At the plate, he begins with a bit of a bat wrap but negates it with a quick trigger and a direct bat path, helping him make lots of contact even against older, high level pitching. His power is below average for now, but with a projectable 6'3" frame, he looks like he could grow into at least average power in time. Meanwhile, while the Southern California product is unremarkable as a runner, he brings fluid actions to the shortstop position as well as an above average arm that could help him stick at the highly sought after position. If he gets pushed off by a more explosive defender, he should fit well as an above average third baseman. The key to Ebel's development will be his power development, which will make the difference between a contact-oriented utility infielder and a big league regular who could knock 15-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages at his peak.

2-59: LHP JD Thompson, Vanderbilt
Slot value: $1.56 million. Signing bonus: $1.56 million.
My rank: #48. MLB Pipeline: #66. Baseball America: #61.
I like JD Thompson, and I think he is a tremendous fit for the Brewers' system. He gradually worked his way into a larger and larger role on Vanderbilt's pitching staff, culminating in a 2025 in which he served as the program's ace, put up six double digit strikeout games, and finished tied for seventh in NCAA Division I with 122 strikeouts. He's more of a polished arm than a power pitcher, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and only topping out around 95. The pitch plays up with riding action from a lower slot, coming in with relatively flat plane through the zone. He throws both a slider and a curveball, with the former dipping in under bats with nice, late action and the latter showing bigger, two-plane break to dive across the plate. He also shows a solid changeup, making for a big league ready four pitch mix. Everything plays up because Thompson creates nice angle with his crossfire delivery, giving his stuff even more of that two-plane effect. The East Texas native shows above average command of all of his pitches, filling up the zone by repeating his delivery consistently. Lacking a plus pitch, it is not the most exciting profile and his strikeout rate will likely drop in pro ball, but the Brewers love his well rounded profile and they have had plenty of success with this profile in the past. He projects as a #3 or #4 starting pitcher who could move quickly and be in the big leagues sooner rather than later.

2C-68: LHP Frank Cairone, Delsea Regional HS [NJ]
Slot value: $1.25 million. Signing bonus: $1.1 million ($156,900 below slot value).
My rank: #103. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #96.
Frank Cairone is a bit of a sleeper and a sneaky good pick for the Brewers here, who got him slightly below slot value to keep him from attending Coastal Carolina. Like JD Thompson, he will fit very well into this Brewers player development system. Cairone sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 96 at peak early in starts but settling closer to 90 at times. The pitch plays up further due to excellent riding life and extension, and a little more velocity could make it a plus pitch. He has long been able to spin the ball, but he's now starting to separate out his slider and curveball into distinct, potentially above average pitches. His changeup is behind as a fourth pitch, which is not uncommon for high school arms. The 6'2" lefty looks physical and repeats his delivery well, helping him fill up the strike zone well for a young arm and project for at least average command. Additionally, Cairone is extremely young for the class, not turning 18 until two months after the draft and really the age of an older 2026 graduate. There is a ton of upside here as a potential mid rotation starter and I believe he is not as far away from that ceiling as you might think.

3-94: RHP Jacob Morrison, Coastal Carolina
Slot value: $813,600. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($116,100 below slot value).
My rank: #168. MLB Pipeline: #173. Baseball America: #187.
Jacob Morrison's rise to stardom is extremely impressive. He joined the Coastal Carolina rotation as a true freshman in 2023, but was hit hard with a .304 opponents' batting average and a 6.55 ERA over thirteen starts. After missing all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery, he stepped back into the rotation in 2025 and beat all expectations by a country mile, going 12-1 with a 2.42 ERA and a 104/23 strikeout to walk ratio as he led the Chanticleers to the College World Series Finals and took home is own Sun Belt Pitcher of the Year award. Listed at a towering 6'8", 245 pounds, Morrison is the quintessential college ace. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at peak, coming in with downhill plane and some life from an extremely high slot. He throws both a curveball and a slider that get nice glove side dip and sneak under bats, while his changeup is a firm fourth pitch. Morrison has a relatively stiff delivery but repeats it well and shows above average command, especially of his fastball, helping him walk just 5.4% of his opponents in 2025. Besides the Tommy John surgery, which can bite any pitcher, he has proven very durable and his 107.2 innings in 2025 were the third most in Division I. The kid out of the Flint, Michigan area likely does not have the stuff to miss large numbers of bats in pro ball, so he'll need to rely on his command to stay ahead in counts and keep hitters guessing. If the Brewers can help one or two of his secondaries take a step forward, that would be a major factor in getting him to his ceiling as a #4 or #5 starter. As of now, I most likely see him as a serviceable long reliever.

4-125: RHP Joshua Flores, Lake Central HS [IN]
Slot value: $599,600. Signing bonus: $722,500 ($122,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #243. Baseball America: #392.
After going at or slightly under slot value with each of their first five picks, the Brewers began to cash in on their savings by going a bit above slot to lure Joshua Flores away from a Kentucky commitment. While his ranking on public boards might not give it away, he has one of the highest octane arms you'll find outside of the top couple of rounds and is a markedly different prospect than the pitchers Milwaukee targeted so far in this class. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out at 97 with run and ride to make it a plus pitch. His best pitch, however, is a nasty curveball with wicked snap that Northwest Indiana high school hitters simply couldn't handle. He can turn it over into a decent slider, while his changeup is behind. Flores has a long arm action, going almost full extension straight back before firing to the plate, leading to well below average command and getting him into walk trouble even with those same high school hitters his stuff could easily overwhelm. The Brewers will need to work hard to both streamline his delivery and help him harness his electric stuff, which could make him a high end starting pitcher at the big league level. Given how far he has to go to reach that ceiling, there is a good chance he ends up a reliever where he focuses on the fastball/curveball combination and doesn't need to hold his command more than an inning or two. He's also young for the class, having only turned 18 a month before the draft.

6-185: SS Daniel Dickinson, Louisiana State
Slot value: $344,400. Signing bonus: $325,000 ($19,000 below slot value).
My rank: #122. MLB Pipeline: #80. Baseball America: #73.
This is a nice value get for the Brewers, as Daniel Dickinson was considered a top two rounds prospect at times and still got third round grades from many publications at draft time, though he was a fourth rounder on my board. Lightly scouted out of high school, he began his career at Utah Valley University and simply bashed his way through the WAC, earning first team all-conference honors as both a freshman and a sophomore. He transferred to LSU for his junior season and had no issues catching up to SEC pitching, though questions about the overall impact in his profile pushed him back a couple rounds. Dickinson is a high contact bat that battles through his at bats, which aided his transition from the WAC to the SEC and which will aid his transition into pro ball. The power, meanwhile, is more of a question mark. He's listed at an average 6', 180 pounds, and ran below average exit velocity numbers despite smacking 39 home runs in three years of college ball. His power plays with metal bats when he can yank it to the pull side, though he hit just .205/.350/.253 with wood bats in the Cape Cod League last summer, showing his same great plate discipline but struggling to drive the ball into gaps and over heads. Drafted as a shortstop, he has the physical tools to profile there if needed but probably fits better at second base, where he could be solid average or even above average. The Eastern Washington native is a baseball rat who will maximize his skill set and best profiles as a contact hitting utility infielder in Milwaukee.

11-335: SS CJ Hughes, Junipero Serra HS [CA]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($550,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #215.
As is tradition in Milwaukee, the Brewers began to unload their excess bonus pool space by dumping early fourth round money into eleventh rounder CJ Hughes, precluding him from attending UC Santa Barbara. Hughes had a strong senior season at JSerra High School in Southern California, a powerhouse program producing more and more talent headlined by 2017 first overall pick Royce Lewis. He is a glove first shortstop with a vacuum-like glove at the premium position, showing natural soft hands and enough arm strength to be an above average defender there. A switch hitter, he has impressed evaluators with a strong approach and solid bat to ball, giving him a shot at an average or better hit tool. There's not much power in the profile, clocking in at a listed 155 pounds, and he'll likely never have average power no matter how much he develops. Still, there is some twitch in his swings and he should have enough to keep pitchers honest with something like 5-10 home runs per season and plenty of doubles and triples. With average speed, it's probably a utility infield profile with a chance to develop into an every day shortstop if he can tack on a little bit of strength. Age works in his favor as he won't turn 18 until September, making him one of the youngest players in the entire draft.

19-575: RHP Chase Bentley, IMG Academy [FL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus $757,500 ($607,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
There is not a ton of public information out there on Chase Bentley, who signed for a large, late-third round caliber bonus rather than attend Texas A&M. He's a Northern California native who crossed the country with Rays supplemental pick Dean Moss to attend IMG Academy in Florida. His fastball sits around 90 with tons of running action to miss barrels, while he has really sharpened up his slider into a second out pitch. There is a curveball and a changeup in the mix as well, though he can drop his arm to get more fade on the latter, making for a well-rounded arsenal which he has shown solid feel to command. Listed at 6'3", 215 pounds, he's very physical for a high schooler and that is made even more impressive by the fact that he is relatively young for a high school pick, giving the Brewers high confidence he can develop into a mid-rotation starting pitcher. They'll loosen up his delivery a little bit to unlock more velocity and continue honing in those breaking pitches. While he wasn't much of a known commodity before the draft, the Brewers did their diligence here and think he would have developed into a monster in College Station.

20-605: RHP Ma'Kale Holden, Thompson HS [AL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $410,000 ($260,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #163.
Milwaukee finished things off with a second straight physical right handed pitcher here, paying Ma'Kale Holden late fifth round money to head north rather than stay home at Alabama for school. He has hit 97 with his fastball but more commonly lives closer to 90 at present, while showing excellent feel for spin on his two breaking balls. There is a changeup in the mix as well, giving him a power arm with four pitches. For now, the mechanics are relatively raw and both his fastball velocity and his secondary stuff can be inconsistent, but at his peak stuff he looks like he belongs in the top couple of rounds. With his inconsistent mechanics, he also has trouble holding his command together for longer periods of time, making for an all around relatively raw prospect. Milwaukee will take its time with Holden to streamline things, with pro coaching hopefully unlocking effectiveness at his peak stuff. The 6'1" righty carries reliever risk, where he could sit closer to the mid 90's and pull the string on his nasty breaking stuff.

Thursday, August 21, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Houston Astros

Full list of draftees

It may not seem like much, but #21 is the earliest the Astros have picked since drafting UNC righty J.B. Bukauskas with the #15 pick way back in 2017. Beginning with first rounder Xavier Neyens, they went after a power-heavy class that could bring some fireworks to Daikin Park in the future. Lacking a second round pick after signing Christian Walker this offseason, they did lack draft capital and Neyens represented their only seven figure bonus. In all, it's an interesting class with a lot of outlier traits that the Astros will try work off, making for a very Astros-like draft.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-21: SS Xavier Neyens, Mount Vernon HS [WA]
Slot value: $4.12 million. Signing bonus: $4.12 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #19. MLB Pipeline: #25. Baseball America: #19.
With their earliest pick in nearly a decade, the Astros brought on a hitter who has a chance for the biggest bat in the class when all is said and done. Xavier Neyens has long been a famous name on the showcase circuit and at times rivaled Ethan Holliday at the top of the prep class in early projections, and while he wound up more of a mid to back of the first round prospect by the time the draft rolled around, he remains one of the most dangerous teenage hitters in the country. Already ultra physical at 6'4", 210 pounds, he's going to get even bigger as he continues to pack on strength and he's a great athlete for his size, too. Of course, he stands out for his plus-plus raw power that he taps effortlessly in games with a violent, leveraged, and controlled left handed swing that puts the ball in the air consistently. He flat out refuses to chase even quality breaking balls and velocity, forcing pitchers to attack him in the zone at their own risk. There were times where he got too passive and let hittable pitches go by, which at times got him in trouble in deeper counts when quality arms could make quality pitches and get him out. There are also some questions about pure bat to ball, as he swung and missed in the strike zone more than evaluators would like to see for a first round prospect. Still, because he's not chasing, he's on base a ton to complement his power. The Astros drafted Neyens as a shortstop, though that's a bit of wishful thinking. He's more athletic than most players his size, but third base seems like the best case scenario with just decent lateral quickness. He's pretty smooth on the balls he does get to and has a plus arm that helped him run his fastball up to 96 on the mound, so as long as he maintains his shape, he should stick on the left side of the infield. If not, the Washington native has plenty of bat to profile at first base. There are serious parallels to Nick Kurtz in this profile, as a big bodied, athletic, slugging left handed bat with a corner defensive profile, though Neyens could stick at third while Kurtz plays a mean first base. He had been committed to Oregon State.

3-95: OF Ethan Frey, Louisiana State
Slot value: $803,900. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($193,600 above slot value).
My rank: #158. MLB Pipeline: #119. Baseball America: #317.
Ethan Frey is a semi-local kid who grew up less than three hours from Houston in the tiny town of Rosepine, Louisiana, just fifteen miles off the Texas border where his parents work at nearby Fort Polk. He's a bit of a polarizing prospect for which opinions vary widely – Baseball America has him outside of the top 300, MLB Pipeline is the highest on him at #119, and the Astros not only drafted him inside the top 100 but for an over slot bonus befitting of the #81 overall pick. You see that often with high school players, but those discrepancies are less common at the college level. Frey certainly brings with him a big time profile. He played sparingly over his first two seasons at LSU, batting just .237/.307/.289 with zero home runs in 53 games, mostly off the bench, but exploded to hit .331/.420/641 with thirteen home runs as a junior in 2025. Listed at an imposing 6'6", 225 pounds, the ball jumps off his bat for plus raw power that he finally began tapping in 2025. He's a patient hitter that runs into some swing and miss in the zone (sound familiar?) but held his own against high level pitching in the SEC, giving confidence that the bat will translate to pro ball. Frey played quarterback at Rosepine High School back in the Piney Woods and moves very well for his size, with some getting above average reads on his speed. He did miss time with labrum surgery and it's unknown how much of his previously strong arm will return. He was buried on the LSU defensive depth chart with big time names like Derek Curiel, Chris Stanfield, Jake Brown, and Josh Pearson locking down most of the time in the Tigers outfield, leaving Frey in a DH role for much of the season. With his speed, there are some optimistic evaluators who see Frey as a center fielder, and those who believe his arm strength will come back could see him as an above average right fielder as well. Given the nearly million dollar bonus they handed him, I would think the Astros are fully bought into the physical side and see Frey as a fully healthy, high level athlete in a 6'6" package.

4-126: IF Nick Monistere, Southern Miss
Slot value: $594,500. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($197,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #425.
Sticking in the Gulf Coast region, the Astros hopped over to Southern Miss to grab Nick Monistere for a below slot bonus that almost perfectly pays for Ethan Frey's over slot payday. Initially a two-way player when he came to Southern Miss, he gave up pitching after nine innings for the Golden Eagles as a freshman in 2023 and fully broke out with a huge 2025 season that netted him Sun Belt Player of the Year honors. Though he is not huge at a listed 6', 190 pounds, much smaller than the two draftees ahead of him here, he was able to turn around 21 home runs in 63 games in 2025 with a pull-oriented, leveraged swing and above average raw power. He really extends well through the baseball and should get to all of his raw power in games in pro ball, giving him the shot to hit 15-20 home runs per season and perhaps pop for more if he reaches his absolute ceiling. Before doing that, he will need to clean up the hit tool a little bit with an aggressive approach and average bat to ball skills, with some questions against spin that will need to be addressed against better pitching. Sun Belt pitching is nothing to sneeze at and he performed well there, hitting .323 with a .410 on-base percentage and limiting his strikeout rate to a reasonable 17.7%, but the pitching will get more and more relentless as he moves up the latter. Controlling the strike zone and recognizing spin a bit better will go a long way. Defensively, Monistere could end up at any number of positions. He bounced around the diamond over his first two seasons in Hattiesburg before settling in as the every day second baseman in 2025, giving him many options going forward. He's probably not polished or quick enough to play shortstop, but he does have a strong arm and can get around a little bit, making both second and third base an option. He has also seen time in the outfield, but Houston will hope the Jackson-area native can stick in the dirt.

5-156: RHP Nick Potter, Wichita State
Slot value: $443,100. Signing bonus: $336,600 ($106,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Nick Potter brings as big a right arm as you're going to find outside the top couple rounds. He began his career at Crowder JC, then after two years transferred to Wichita State. Pitching exclusively out of the bullpen, he was a shutdown arm for the Shockers highlighted by some excellent outings down the stretch. He's a fireballer through and through. Potter's fastball sits mid to upper 90's and touches triple digits at peak, coming in with explosive life to miss bats at rates rarely seen from a fastball. He primarily pitches off the heater, challenging hitters in the zone and just blowing it by them down the middle or wherever it ends up. The Kansas City-area native also snaps off a slider with some promise, with his best flashing above average in the upper 80's with hard biting action, though it can be inconsistent and flatten out regularly. Still, even his worst breaking balls are upper 80's cement mixers against hitters gearing up for triple digits so it's not like they're just floating in there. Potter does have below average command, which combined with the two pitch mix likely precludes him from ever starting in pro ball. The 6'4" righty is ultra athletic on the mound with excellent extension, making his fastball play up further and giving him tremendous ceiling. There are closers out there like Mason Miller and Jhoan Duran who admittedly have better stuff and command, but if you were drawing up those profiles at this stage of their career, Potter's not too far off. If he can get more consistent with his slider and sharpen up his command a little bit, closer upside is not out of the question, especially if the Astros can mold this ball of clay further.

7-216: C Jase Mitchell, Cape Henlopen HS [DE]
Slot value: $267,700. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($529,800 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #246. Baseball America: #467.
The Eastern Shore doesn't produce a ton of talent, with the only recent highlights perhaps being former Pirates starter Ian Snell and reliever Tyler Webb until brothers Zack and Jake Gelof turned standout careers at Delaware's Cape Henlopen High School into standout UVA careers into both being 60th overall picks. Zack is now with the A's and Jase Mitchell is looking to follow his footsteps from Cape Henlopen to the bigs (I too played a few games at Cape Henlopen as a kid but alas here I am writing about it, not in the bigs). Mitchell brings the kind of left handed power you don't see often from catchers. He has a big 6'3" frame with long arms and legs, oozing projection as he looks to add thirty-plus pounds in pro ball. He already hits for plus power with a violent left handed swing producing tremendous force, sending baseballs impressive distances when he connects. He is certainly hit over power, and that is what kept him lower down on most prospect boards. There are questions both about his approach and his pure bat to ball, with long levers and a lack of facing top pitching in a place they call Slower Lower Delaware. Meanwhile, there are questions about his defense as well. Like most lanky catchers, he's still learning to fold up back there while still remaining spry enough to pounce on balls in the dirt. A big arm does help his case to remain a catcher. Between the hit tool and the defense, this is certainly a boom or bust profile, but the Astros clearly believe in at least one if not both and see a future power hitting catcher. Previously committed to Kentucky, he instead signed for top-100 money here in the seventh round.

8-246: 2B Kyle Walker, Arizona State
Slot value: $219,800. Signing bonus: $152,500 ($67,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Kyle Walker gives the Astros a second Louisianan. A native of Harvey, a southern suburb of New Orleans, he attended Archbishop Rummel High School in Metairie and began his college career at Louisiana Tech. After spending his freshman season on the bench, he transferred just ten minutes down the road to Grambling State and immediately established himself as one of the best hitters in the SWAC, earning a second opportunity to transfer to Arizona State two years later. Unfazed by the jump in competition, he still hit .352/.449/.546 with more walks than strikeouts as the Sun Devils' every day second baseman. Undersized at 5'9", he packs a punch in the box with a quick, adjustable right handed swing that produces hard contact around the field and enough pop to turn on home runs to the pull side. He controls the strike zone extremely well, fouling off tough pitches and refusing to strike out. Defensively, Walker shows plus speed and can get to balls all around his position, though he lacks the big arm for the left side of the infield and will fit at second base going forward. If he can continue tapping some pop with wood bats, there is upside here as a part time infielder, though his utility infield value is hurt by the lack of arm strength. Walker was a senior sign who will turn 23 over the offseason.

12-366: OF Elijah Farley, Navarro HS [TX]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
It's not often that a high school player signs for $150,000, but it appears the Astros and Elijah Farley were a tremendous fit and Farley will play for Houston rather follow through on his commitment to Hill JC. The only Texan in this Astros draft class, Farley grew up in the suburbs of New Braunfels and spent the first three years of high school career at Canyon High School. He then transferred to Navarro High School between New Braunfels and Seguin for his senior year. Farley brings huge upside, but just as much risk. He's a lanky 6'4" with excellent twitch and athleticism, enabling him to shine on the basketball court as well as the mound. He'll be developed as a hitter, where he brings above average power from the left side that could easily get to plus with added strength. There is big bat speed that will play as he streamlines that swing, giving the Astros plenty to develop. The hit tool is more unproven, as he hasn't seen a lot of top pitching and wasn't active on the main showcase circuit last summer. The jump from Central Texas high school ball to the pros will be steep, so he will likely move slowly as the Astros turn him into a pro ballplayer. With plus speed and a plus arm that has been up to 94 on the mound, he has a chance to be a plus defensive outfielder with further refinement. There is huge upside here that will take a lot of work and time to bring out, and Farley is old for a graduating senior having turned 19 back in May.