Saturday, October 19, 2024

The top twelve unsigned high school pitching prospects from the 2024 draft

There are some really big arms heading to college in 2024, headlined by arguably the top prep pitcher in the class in William Schmidt. While the position player list was spread out with twelve players going to ten different schools, this list of twelve is concentrated in just eight schools as Wake Forest, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Florida all landed two apiece. Surprisingly, perennial recruiting powerhouse Vanderbilt was not only shut out from both lists, they didn't land a single recruit in either top twenty as top recruit Rustan Rigdon would have ranked #22 on the position player list (#164 on the overall draft board). This pitching list isn't quite as heavy on older prospects as the position player list, with only four of twelve set to turn 20 by next July compared to seven for the position players, so most of these kids will be on campus for a long time. Additionally, this list was heavier at the top with Schmidt ranking as the top overall prospect reaching campus and six landing in the top 100 overall prospects, compared to four for the position players, the #20 pitcher nearly falls out of the top 200 whereas the #20 position player stayed inside the top 160.
In parentheses before the position is their rank on my personal 2024 draft board. In parentheses after the school is the year they will be draft eligible again. Note, these rankings are purely based off my 2024 draft rankings and do not incorporate fall practice performance.

1. (#24) RHP William Schmidt, Louisiana State (2027)
Undrafted
William Schmidt took the baseball world by surprise shortly before the 2024 draft when he pulled his name from the draft and announced his intention to honor his commitment to LSU despite massive multi-million dollar signing bonuses getting thrown at him. Schmidt entered the draft cycle on the fringes of the first round conversation, but burst out of the gate strong and held that performance throughout his senior season at Catholic High School in Baton Rouge, alma mater of former LSU stars Josh Smith, Aaron and Austin Nola, and even Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He'll join a Tigers pitching staff that lost eight of its top nine arms by innings pitched, including all of its top five, though he won't be alone as LSU brings in a loaded transfer class looking to fill those innings and the return of Chase Shores from Tommy John surgery looms. Schmidt himself has a chance to jump straight into regular innings on the back of his now-stuff, then push his way towards an eventual Friday night role with massive upside. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touched 99 in the spring, coming in with riding action and strong extension from his long frame. His best pitch has always been a hammer curveball with tremendous depth combined with power to make it a plus-plus pitch, while his changeup has shown some progress as he's gained feel for it. Beyond the stuff, the 6'4" righty brings tons of projection and should be sitting comfortably in the mid 90's in short order and maintaining that velocity deep into starts. While his lanky frame has led to scattered command in the past as he's worked to repeat his release point, he has grown into his body over the past calendar year and has sharpened that somewhat, especially with regards to his big curveball which he commands better than his fastball. If Schmidt, who moves very well on the mound with an athletic delivery and a quick arm, can maintain that progress with his command, he could find himself near the very top of the 2027 draft. He was a clear-cut first round prospect and arguably the best prep pitcher in the class in 2024 as it was.

2. (#49) RHP Dax Whitney, Oregon State (2027)
Undrafted
I mentioned in the hitters article that Oregon State, despite playing as an independent due to the death of the Pac-12, was able to land a superstar transfer in Washington's Aiva Arquette as well as the #8 incoming freshman position player in shortstop Adam Haight. Not only that, here they picked up the second best unsigned prep pitcher in the country, so Mitch Canham deserves all the credit in the world for how he's navigated a tough situation. The Beavers lose their top two starters in Aiden May (CBB round, Marlins) and Jacob Kmatz (5th round, Rays) as well as closer Bridger Holmes (7th round, Angels), but other than that their pitching staff remains almost completely intact. For that reason, it may not be easy for Dax Whitney to jump straight into significant innings, but if any freshman in the country can break through a crowded pitching staff, it's him. Whitney was a little off the beaten path out in Blackfoot, Idaho, and entered the season more of a day two prospect who seemed likely to head to school. He turned in a huge senior season in which he just kept steadily climbing boards throughout the spring, causing scouts to flock out to eastern Idaho as he even earned whisperings of first round interest. Ultimately, all the added helium was not enough to keep him away from Corvallis, where he enters as the program's likely future Friday night starter. Whitney's fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 at peak, playing up with riding life from a very vertical slot. He has refined both his curveball and his slider, which both project as above average as they've gotten sharper and sharper. His changeup is a fourth pitch, but it too has come along and looks to be a solid offering as well. The 6'5" righty is ultra projectable with an athletic frame that promises to add significant velocity, with a real chance he sits mid 90's and touches closer to triple digits within his time on campus. Beyond that, he repeats his simple delivery well, with a short arm stroke and some crossfire action to create a little bit of deception too. The command is average for now but figures to creep towards above average with added refinement under a high quality Oregon State pitching development program. Between the size, projectability, feel, and now-stuff, Whitney has all of the ingredients to become a future ace.

3. (#63) RHP Chris Levonas, Wake Forest (2027)
Drafted – CBB round (pick #67), Milwaukee Brewers
Wake Forest will have work to do replacing #2 overall pick Chase Burns (Reds) as well as multiple other pitchers who had large roles in 2024, but new arms always, always step up in Winston-Salem whether they come through the transfer portal, get developed from the existing roster, or come up from the high school ranks. Chris Levonas was not expected to be among that latter group when the Brewers drafted him in the CBB round, but he could not come to an agreement with Milwaukee and he and Tyler Bell (drafted one pick earlier, now at Kentucky) are the two highest drafted preps to reach campus since a trio of preps in 2018. Levonas is an electric righty from New Jersey who elevated his profile with a loud showing at the PBR Super 60 in February followed by an equally loud senior season. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 97 with big riding life, exploding past bats with regularity. He rips off a nasty curveball with huge spin rates and above average projection, while his equally high spin slider has really come on recently and gives him a second above average breaking ball. He can cut the fastball when he needs to, while his changeup is behind and will need significant refinement at school. The 6'2" righty an explosive athlete that gets down the mound with a quick arm, the type of cannon fodder that fits perfectly into Corey Muscara's pitching development pipeline at Wake Forest, though he's very skinny and does throw with some effort. That can impact his command a bit, and given Wake's evergreen depth on the mound he may not jump into the rotation straight away. The potential durability concerns compounded with the command may ultimately push him to the bullpen long term in pro ball, but the now-stuff, feel for spin, athleticism, and explosiveness on the mound give him some of the best upside on this list, especially at Wake Forest.

4. (#79) RHP Duncan Marsten, Wake Forest (2026)
Undrafted
As I was saying, Wake Forest recruits well. Duncan Marsten, like Chris Levonas, was a bit of a spring riser who had some extremely loud outings out in California in late January and early February before much of the country had begun its season. That pushed his name into the fringes of the first round conversation for a minute, though the stuff settled a tick below what he showed in those first couple starts and he wound up more as a second to third round prospect. At his peak he sat low to mid 90's and touched 99, then was more low 90's as the season moved on. He shows an above average slider that misses bats, while his curveball and changeup are solid pitches in their own right. The 6'3" righty is a bit less explosive but more physical than Chris Levonas, though Wake Forest will still look to build him up so he can hold that top-end stuff over longer stretches. He generally holds the strike zone pretty well, but he can lose it when he reaches back for a little extra on his stuff. Marsten moves crisply on the mound, and did especially so early in the season, giving him legitimate mid rotation starter upside at the big league level. At the college level, Marsten and Levonas could make great one two punch over the next couple of seasons. Marsten is very old for the class and will be 20 in May, so he'll be draft eligible again in 2026.

5. (#84) RHP Carson Wiggins, Arkansas (2026)
Undrafted
Jaxon Wiggins had one of the most electric fastballs ever seen in Fayetteville in 2021 and 2022, then missed 2023 with Tommy John surgery before getting drafted in the second round by the Cubs that year. Now his younger brother Carson hits campus with more fanfare than his brother had at the time, and he'll look to beat Jaxon's #68 selection in a couple years. He'll join a loaded Razorbacks pitching staff that, despite losing its entire weekend rotation from last season including #5 overall pick Hagen Smith (White Sox), returns a ton of firepower in the bullpen and also made a couple massive additions in the transfer portal. For that reason it will be difficult for Wiggins to grab one of those vacated rotation slots, but his now stuff will fit right into the bullpen at least in year one. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and touched triple digits in fall practice with running life from a lower slot, overpowering prep hitters and looking plenty enough to blow past even seasoned SEC hitters. He has a sharp slider that lacks consistency at this point, but his best ones look plus and can leave hitters looking helpless. Wiggins also shows a solid splitter, though like his slider it lacks consistency. The 6'5" righty has a free and easy delivery to generate that velocity effortlessly, but he lacks the feel to repeat his release point consistently and shows below average command at this point. Right now, the draw with Wiggins is pure, raw arm strength that simply does not come around often and which you cannot teach. The Arkansas coaching staff, meanwhile, has proven to be one of the best pitching development staffs in the country and will be the perfect place for him to learn to wrangle it, both by repeating his delivery better and by getting more consistent with his offspeed stuff. The stuff as is will work perfectly in a relief role during his freshman season, then perhaps as a sophomore he can graduate to the rotation as a more complete pitcher. He's very old for an incoming freshman and will be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2026, so he'll want to get it put together quickly.

6. (#95) RHP Tegan Kuhns, Tennessee (2026)
Undrafted
Surprisingly, Tennessee did not land a player on the top twelve position player prospects coming to campus, with shortstop Manny Marin leading the way among the position player group as the #19 hitting prospect reaching campus (#157 on my overall board). Tegan Kuhns is the top overall prospect in their freshman class, coming in with plenty of fame from his prep days at Gettysburg Area High School in southern Pennsylvania. The Volunteers are losing six of their top seven pitchers by innings pitched, including each of their top three, but like the Razorbacks they are also bringing in a couple of big arms in the transfer portal. There still seems to be more opportunity to earn innings in Knoxville than in Fayetteville, and Kuhns is a bit more well-rounded as a prospect than Carson Wiggins. Long a famous name in his draft class, Kuhns sits in the low 90's and touches 95 with his fastball with riding life up in the zone. He has a big two-plane curveball that is still searching for its identity, but at its best it flashes plus and should be a weapon for him in short order in Knoxville. His changeup too is inconsistent, but shows flashes and should be a third solid pitch for him. The 6'4" righty is extremely projectable and figures to add significant velocity onto what aren't currently overwhelming radar numbers, and he's also very athletic on the mound with an elastic delivery and nice lower half extension. While the command is far from pinpoint, he fills up the zone with a healthy dose of strikes and should fine tune that as he grows into his lanky frame. While Kuhns doesn't have one standout pitch or tool, he's exactly the way you draw up a young pitching prospect in many ways with the frame, athleticism, and upside to show three above average or better pitches in time. Like Wiggins, Kuhns is very old for the class and will be eligible as a sophomore in 2026.

7. (#109) RHP Connor Gatwood, Auburn (2027)
Drafted – 19th round (pick #562), Los Angeles Angels
It was a rough season on the Plains last year as the Tigers went just 8-22 in SEC conference play, but there's reason for hope even with star outfielder Chris Stanfield transferring to LSU. Though all three of Auburn's draftees were pitchers, they return plenty of firepower on the mound and bring in a very nice set of transfers to augment that pitching staff. Their top recruit to reach campus, Connor Gatwood, has a huge arm as well and figures to push hard for innings on that crowded Tiger pitching staff. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and reaches 98 with tough angle from a high slot, while his power slider is creeping closer and closer to 90 and keeps hitters off his fastball well. He has a changeup too, but it's firm at this point. Like Carson Wiggins a few slots up on this list, Gatwood generates his velocity easily with a simple delivery in which he looks like he's just stepping and throwing. The 6'5" righty is extremely physical, more so than most other names on this list, with a big league body that looks to stand up to the rigors of pro ball once he gets there. The arm strength too is extremely impressive, giving the Auburn staff a lot to work with. For now, Gatwood's stuff is all hard, and he's going to have to find a way to change speeds better and soften things up. Both his slider and changeup stand out more for velocity than movement, and he lacks a true change of pace offering. The Mobile native (Baker HS) generally stays around the zone pretty well, but the strikes are scattered and he can miss more often than you'd like at this point for a pitcher jumping into SEC competition – not unexpected for a freshman of course. Auburn will look to develop this extremely physical, powerful freshman arm into a more well-rounded starting pitcher that can change speeds before gassing you up with upper 90's cheddar.

8. (#116) LHP Mason Russell, Arizona (2027)
Drafted – 20th round (pick #599), Cincinnati Reds
Eight pitchers combined to start Arizona's 59 games last year, and going into 2025 they'll return just four of those starts – three from Raul Garayzar and one from Bryce McKnight. While Christian Coppola (Rutgers) was a nice find in the transfer portal, this wide open rotation gives Mason Russell a tremendous opportunity to jump straight in and log significant innings right away. The top lefty pitching prospect to reach campus, Russell is a local kid out of Casteel High School in the southwest corner of the Phoenix metro and one of the more advanced prep arms to reach campus. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95, and he holds that velocity through his starts. He has a sharp curveball and can work it into a solid slider, while his changeup has looked pretty solid too when he's used it. The 6'2" lefty moves very well on the mound with an athletic, repeatable delivery that helps him fill up the strike zone with improving command that now looks average and could get to above average in time. It's not the world's loudest profile overall, lacking a standout pitch or tool like I mentioned with Tegan Kuhns above, but especially now that he's throwing more strikes, there aren't many weaknesses either. There's some projection here as well and if Russell can add a tick or two of velocity while maintaining his progress in the command department, he should become an impact arm in Tucson and beyond.

9. (#127) RHP Jackson Barberi, Florida (2027)
Undrafted
Florida loses five of its top six pitchers by innings pitched, including all of its top three, but never ever mistake the Gators for having a thin pitching staff. In addition to a bevy of young arms returning and ready to take the next step, they added Clemson's Billy Barlow in the transfer portal and as always will pack as much arm talent into that staff as any program in the country. Leading the incoming freshman class will be Atlanta-area product Jackson Barberi, who brings as much upside as any incoming freshman pitcher in the country. The arm talent here is elite, with a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with explosive life at its best. He can rip off some above average sliders with nice bite while his changeup has become a usable third pitch. For now, the stuff is extremely inconsistent, as his velocity backs up deeper into starts and he can be hovering around 90 by the middle innings, while he can drop his arm and get around his slider in an attempt to snap it off harder. The 6'4" righty is extremely projectable and figures to hold his velocity much better as he fills out his lanky frame, perhaps pushing his peak velocities into the upper 90's as well. He also has an explosive right arm that does the heavy lifting in what is a pretty raw operation on the mound, another piece of low hanging fruit in his development that could help him hold his peak stuff better. To top it off, Barberi is extremely young for the class and didn't turn 18 until he was already on campus, making him more than fifteen (!) months younger than the trio of Duncan Marsten, Carson Wiggins, and Tegan Kuhns above him on this list. Barberi may not jump into consistent innings right away in Gainesville, especially not in the rotation, but his athleticism, arm strength, and projectability give him tremendous upside and he could be a force for the Gators by years two and three.

10. (#128) LHP Cole Gibler, Arkansas (2027)
Undrafted
I mentioned in Carson Wiggins' writeup that Arkansas returns an extremely deep pitching staff despite losing its entire weekend rotation to the draft. While it will be difficult for any freshmen to break through, Wiggins and Cole Gibler make for one of the best incoming one-two punches on the mound of any school and they complement each other nicely with very different skill sets. While Wiggins is about big arm strength and upside, Gibler is a more well-rounded arm that could work his way into the rotation more quickly. The fastball sits in the low 90's but can reach as high as 97 in shorts stints with riding action. He has the makings of a solid breaking ball that could be an above average pitch with just a little more refinement to create more finish on the pitch, while his changeup is advanced for a high schooler and can get SEC hitters out right away. While Gibler isn't as explosive as some names on this list, he moves well on the mound with a clean, athletic delivery that creates a low launch and helps him pound the strike zone with above average command. This is an athletic, durable lefty with three potential above average pitches and above average command, a profile that lends itself very well to starting both in the short and long term. Expect Gibler to earn a weekend rotation spot quickly after one comes available, which may not be immediately given the Razorbacks' depth on the mound.

11 (#136) RHP Anson Seibert, Tennessee (2026)
Drafted – 16th round (pick #476), Detroit Tigers
With Tegan Kuhns already mentioned above, Anson Seibert makes it two incoming freshman who were very, very well known for years on the showcase circuit. Seibert in fact had first round buzz early on in his high school career, and while he continued to perform well in the calendar year leading up to the draft, he settled into more of the third or fourth round range and a flexor strain that ended his season in April allowed other names to move ahead. While it's not clear exactly what is going on with that injury, it looks like he may have had Tommy John surgery which would knock him out for his freshman season too. If that is indeed the case, he'll have just one season in orange before he's draft eligible as a redshirt freshman in 2026. Still, getting Seibert to campus is a big win for Tony V and co. given his tremendous upside and ability to carry the pitching staff for one season if that's all he gets. When healthy, the fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched 99 in short stints, coming in with riding action from a high slot. Continuing a theme on this list, his slider shows above average potential with nice bite but is inconsistent at this point, while his changeup is relatively advanced for a high school arm and gives him a third solid offering. Anson stands out on the mound at a towering 6'8", and while he's still skinny, he has begun packing weight onto that massive frame and now clocks in at a listed 235 pounds with room for more. He moves well on the mound, especially for his size, with athletic actions and a short, simple arm circle. Still, as is often the case with lanky preps, he's still searching for consistency with his release point and his command remains fringy. He'll spend his rehab season further building up his strength and honing in his mechanics, which combined with the power fastball gives him the chance to return a force to be reckoned with in 2026.

12. #139 RHP Joshua Whritenour, Florida (2027)
Undrafted
I mentioned above that Jackson Barberi would have tough competition breaking through the young arms in Gainesville, and he's not the only star pitching recruit coming to campus. Joshua Whritenour is another live arm with big upside, and similar to Barberi he does have development ahead of him. At his peak, Whritenour can sit in the low to mid 90's and reach as high as 97 at peak, though that number fluctuated in 2024 as he battled illness that now looks to be behind him. He shows a promising slider that looks above average at peak with high spin and nice snap, and the next step will be creating more finish on the pitch to get below advanced SEC bats. His changeup is a third solid option with nice fading action, giving him a nice baseline to develop at Florida. In 2023, the 6'2" righty was really extending down the mound with an explosive delivery that could impact his command at times, but in 2024 he simplified that delivery and did a much better job staying within the zone, now looking to have average command. Whritenour is on the skinnier side and will look to bulk up in Gainesville, where he should be able to hold his peak stuff over longer periods of time and develop into a solid weekend starter. With three average or better pitches and great athleticism with a quick arm, the upside is certainly there for more and he could become an impact starter in pro ball.

Others
13. (#141) RHP Lazaro Collera, Miami (2027)
14. (#162) RHP Christian Chatterton, Auburn (2026)
15. (#177) RHP Jason Flores, Texas (2027)
16. (#179) RHP Drew Rerick, Texas (2027)
17. (#188) RHP Jack DeTienne, Xavier (2027)
18. (#191) RHP Casan Evans, Louisiana State (2027)
19. (#193) LHP Mason Brassfield, Texas Christian (2027)
20. (#196) LHP Tomas Valincius, Virginia (2027)

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

The top twelve unsigned high school position player prospects from the 2024 draft

NIL and the growth of college baseball are getting more kids to campus nowadays, and this year's deep class of position players continues that trend. There was a very clear theme here, with many of the most advanced bats from around the country deciding to test their chops against the strongest pitching they've seen in power conferences. Unsurprisingly, the SEC leads the way with five names, including #1, while the ACC and Big 12 follow up with three apiece. Following another recent trend, incoming freshman are getting older and older – seven of the twelve players on this list had already turned 19 by the time the 2024 draft rolled around in July, making them sophomore eligible in 2026 as they're more age appropriate for college sophomores than incoming freshman. The trend is unsurprising, as many of these top prospect had multi-million dollar offers thrown their way and going to school could risk that, so two years might be more palatable than three knowing they'll have plenty of leverage in that sophomore season.
In parentheses before the position is their rank on my personal 2024 draft board. In parentheses after the school is the year they will be draft eligible again. Note, these rankings are purely based off my 2024 draft rankings and do not incorporate fall practice performance.

1. (#48) SS Tyler Bell, Kentucky (2026)
Drafted – CBB round (pick #66), Tampa Bay Rays.
Kentucky thought it was losing the crown jewel of its recruiting class when the Rays drafted Tyler Bell in the second competitive balance round, but the two sides could not come to a deal and he'll indeed come to Lexington. That makes Bell the highest drafted player not to sign since Kumar Rocker (Mets, 10th overall) and Jud Fabian (Red Sox, 40th overall) in 2021 and the highest drafted high schooler to go unsigned since Carter Stewart (Braves, 8th overall) back in 2018. With second baseman Emilien Pitre (2nd round, Rays), shortstop Grant Smith (undrafted, signed with White Sox), and third baseman Mitchell Daly (undrafted, signed with Angels) all gone to pro ball, the infield is wide open for Bell to jump in and grab an every day role right away. His glove will go a long way towards winning that job, as his slick actions in the dirt, quick transfer, and accurate arm are all ready to play an above average shortstop at the SEC level right now. While the bat isn't quite as far along, he has massive upside at the plate that could be unlocked in Lexington. A switch hitter, the Chicago-area product has truly elite bat speed that could help him grow into above average power in time, though he hasn't tapped it consistently in games just yet as he's still filling out his 6'1" frame. Bell can also get tied up against higher level stuff and will have a lot to prove against SEC pitching in 2025, so the Kentucky coaching staff may not know exactly what they're going to get from him in year one. The glove will buy a ton of patience for the bat, and his upside at the plate is undeniable. If year one is up and down, he could be a star by year two, where he'll be draft eligible as an older incoming freshman.

2. (#58) SS Charlie Bates, Stanford (2027)
Undrafted
I have Charlie Bates ranked higher than many other outlets, and I think he has a shot to be a real star at Stanford. Unlike Kentucky, Stanford returns a crowded infield picture, but Bates has what it takes to break through in some capacity quickly. He glides around the infield with good body control and an accurate arm that can throw from multiple angles, which helps it play above its average pure strength. While it should be enough to get the job done at shortstop in college, he may slide over to second base in pro ball where he could be an above average defender. Beyond a versatile glove, Bates will bring in sneaky upside with the bat. He has primarily been known as a hit over power type to this point, showing an advanced approach at the plate that helps him make plenty of line drive contact around the field including against stronger competition on the showcase circuit. While he's not huge, there's some projection in his 6'1", 190 pound frame, and Bates has some serious bat speed that could help him grow into average power down the line. That's as well-rounded a profile as you're going to find, especially as a left handed hitter. The power may not come immediately, but his advanced hitting ability will help him catch up to ACC pitching right away and he could be a real star by years two and three. To top it off, he's a local kid straight out of Palo Alto High school. The profile is actually pretty similar to Bell above him on this list, though Bell is a better defender with more projection while Bates is more advanced at the same stage.

3. (#91) OF Garrett Shull, Oklahoma State (2026)
Undrafted
When I think Oklahoma State baseball, I think of offensive firepower. The Cowboys have never been short on big bats and Garrett Shull will ensure that continues into the next era of baseball in Stillwater, where he might have the loudest bat of any incoming freshman in the country. Oklahoma State lost two of their best hitters in Carson Benge (1st round, Mets) and Zach Ehrhard (4th round, Red Sox), so Shull will look to help plug that hole alongside one of the program's best hitters in recent memory in Nolan Schubart. Listed at 6'1", 205 pounds, Shull isn't the biggest man on the field but he's certainly one of the most physical, with a filled out frame that would look at home on a big league field right now. A switch hitter, he generates great leverage from both sides of the plate if with a bit more bat speed from the left side, showing above average power for now that could grow into plus as he learns to turn on the ball in the air more often. For now, the swings are more direct and geared towards line drives, which have served him well against strong pitching on the prep showcase circuit. Beyond the power, he's a mature hitter that works at bats effectively and should have little issue transitioning to Big 12 pitching in short order. Between the present power and innate feel for hitting, I'm confident he'll make an impact from day one. Shull isn't much of a defender, with fringy speed that may slow down further as he ages (though that shouldn't be an issue at school), and profiles best in an outfield corner. His arm strength gives him a shot to play a solid right field, and he could play first base if he needs another route into the lineup. Either way, if you can hit, they find a place for you. Shull will want to find that place quickly because he'll be draft eligible again as a sophomore in 2026, set to turn 21 right around that draft. It's been a few years since Oklahoma State has had a homegrown star from northern Oklahoma, with the Tulsa-area trio of Cade Cabbiness, Bryce Osmond, and Brett Standlee coming to mind if you stretch the definition of star a little bit, so Shull's hailing from Enid adds another fun dimension.

4. (#94) SS Sawyer Farr, Texas A&M (2026)
Undrafted
Sawyer Farr may be a bit slower to develop than names like Charlie Bates or Garrett Shull, but he has just as much if not more upside than anybody on this list. Texas A&M returns a crowded infield picture with only starting shortstop Ali Camarillo (12th round, A's) and utility man Travis Chestnut (graduated) gone from last year's iteration and Penn transfer Wyatt Henseler expected to earn a starting job as well. Farr is a lanky, 6'4" string bean that has begun to fill out his tall frame but still has plenty of projection remaining. The switch hitter gets great extension at the plate and is growing into more power as he gets stronger, sitting at average for now with the chance to get to above average. Similarly, his long arms and the challenges that come with building two swings have caused his contact ability to be a bit inconsistent to this point, which may make it tough to match up against SEC pitching right away. Farr will put his head down and get to work refining the rough edges of his offensive game while continuing to put the work in in the weight room to generate more power, and by year two he could be an impact hitter in the middle of the Aggie lineup. Meanwhile, like other names on this list, his glove is strong enough that it could push him into the lineup quicker even as his bat develops. He's a plus runner with all of the tools you look for in a starting shortstop, including the requisite explosiveness, range, glovework, and arm to be an above average defender at the six. I mentioned the crowded infield, but the one hole does happen to be at shortstop and Farr is one of the only players on the roster who can pick it at a similar level to Camarillo. Like Bell and Shull above him on this list, he'll be eligible again as a sophomore in 2026 though unlike Shull (and like Bell) his ceiling is farther away.

5. (#102) OF/LHP Noah Franco, Texas Christian (2027)
Undrafted
Until very recently, it never even crossed TCU coach Kirk Saarloos' mind that he'd have Noah Franco on campus for the 2025 season. Initially a member of the high school class of 2025 and projected first round pick for that draft, he reclassified last summer to the class of 2024 and immediately jumped into that first round conversation, where the money would have been too much to pass up. Unfortunately an unremarkable spring dropped him out of the day one conversation, and instead he'll head to Fort Worth to rebuilt his stock as a two-way player. Franco already has a very physical 6'3" frame, which he began to fill out in IMG Academy's first class facilities and will continue to do so at TCU. For now, he's a hit over power type with a long track record of hitting against top showcase competition and the ability to control the zone and use the whole field. He won't turn 19 until near the end of his freshman season, but is already one of the more advanced hitters stepping onto a campus anywhere in the country. He hasn't learned to leverage his power consistently in games just yet, but given his size and projection, it's only a matter of time before he grows into at least average if not above average or better pop. If it all comes together, he's a potential above average hitter with plus power at peak, which is why he had first round buzz for a while. The TCU staff will look to get him back moving in that direction after he looked more ordinary at the plate last spring. His defensive profile is much closer to Garrett Shull than Sawyer Farr, with average speed that figures to tick down as he ages (though again like Shull, that probably won't be an issue in college). He has experience at first base or the outfield corners, but his bat will be his ticket to regular playing time. Meanwhile, Franco actually has a shot to earn time on the mound first. The fastball sits in the low 90's at present and touches 93, which isn't overwhelming velocity but provides a nice baseline. He has good feel for a deep slider and shows a solid changeup, giving him a well-rounded arsenal, and he repeats his athletic delivery well for above average command by incoming freshman standards. It's not the world's most exciting pitching profile, but a 6'3" lefty with three quality pitches he can throw for strikes will play at any school. The pitching profile brings a higher floor, while his bat has a higher ceiling. In all, TCU did not lose much talent to the draft, with only three players (all pitchers) signing plus star LF/DH Logan Maxwell transferring to Arkansas, not to mention a strong recruiting class, so it may be difficult to break into playing time on either side of the ball initially.

6. (#106) C Hunter Carns, Florida State (2026)
Drafted – 20th round (pick #614), Arizona Diamondbacks
Florida State is getting an extremely exciting new catcher in Hunter Carns, and he has a shot to jump straight into the lineup. While last year's starting catcher Jaxson West returns, no other catchers do and Carns is a better hitter than West. Dartmouth transfer Nathan Cmeyla and fellow freshman Josh Reiter round out the catching corps, so expect Carns to log plenty of innings behind the plate. Even if he doesn't win the starting job there, he's significantly more athletic than most catchers and his plus speed will allow him to play anywhere in the outfield, so there are many avenues to get his bat in the lineup. He's a streaky hitter who has struggled at times against top competition, but streaky means you get hot too and when Carns is hot, he's red hot. He also packs plenty of power into his 6' frame, with a quick barrel and natural loft in his right handed swing to give him above average pop. The swing can get stiff at times and he gets in trouble when it gets too grooved, but I fully expect the Florida State staff to iron it out. The Jacksonville native is extremely old for an incoming freshman, the oldest player on this list in fact, and will turn 20 in April. That will make him both draft eligible and age appropriate for the 2026 draft, so he may only spend two years in Tallahassee and will want to put things together quickly. If he does, he's a potential fringe average hitter with above average power and excellent athleticism behind the plate, with plenty of upside on both sides of the ball given said athleticism.

7. (#110) OF Sawyer Strosnider, Texas Christian (2026)
Undrafted
Noah Franco may have the more famous name, but Sawyer Strosnider is every bit of the prospect his Californian counterpart is and may have even more upside. It's a very different profile from Franco, and it makes TCU one of two teams to put two players on this list. Much like Hunter Carns one name above him on this list, Strosnider is an athletic specimen that could succeed at virtually any sport he wanted to, and he did indeed star in both basketball and the high jump at Brock High School just west of Weatherford. On the baseball field, that translates into a whippy left handed swing that produces above average power from a very pull-heavy approach that worked against rural North Texas high school pitching. With projection remaining on his 6'2" frame, he has room to easily grow into plus power in time, though he'll have to iron out that approach and learn to use the whole field effectively. Strosnider has had inconsistent performance against higher level pitching and may face a steep learning curve in the Big 12, and with much of TCU's offensive firepower returning from a year ago, he'll have to work hard to get up to speed and earn playing time right away. His plus speed and plus arm (like Franco, he's been up to 93 on the mound) will help pick up some of the slack from his hit tool, with the ability to play anywhere in the outfield at an above average level. Strosnider has massive upside if he can become a more balanced hitter and could become the best player on this list. For now, he'll focus on earning playing time in Fort Worth, where he'll turn 20 just after the close of his freshman season and will be draft eligible as a sophomore.

8. (#118) SS Adam Haight, Oregon State (2027)
Drafted – 20th round (pick #593), New York Mets
After the tragic death of the Pac-12, Oregon State is set to compete as an independent school in 2025 which I personally expected to affect recruitment. Instead, they went out and pillaged the city of Seattle by bringing in superstar Washington transfer Aiva Arquette and expected day two draftee and Cedar Park Christian standout Adam Haight, while also landing a name on the incoming freshman pitcher list that will come out soon. After losing both starting middle infielders from last year, including Guardians first overall pick Travis Bazzana, getting those two shortstops onto campus is a huge win. I'm a big fan of Haight's and he ranks higher on my list than you may see him on others. He was one of the most advanced hitters in the Pacific Northwest last year with a sound approach and a simple, repeatable right handed swing that helped him get to balls all over the zone. That gives him every opportunity to snag that vacant second base role right away. The power is below average right now, but Haight has projection remaining on his skinny 6'2" frame and leverages the ball well, so strength gains in Corvallis could get him closer to average power in due time. He's not much of a runner but has the requisite instincts and glovework to handle any infield position at the college level. In pro ball, he may move to third base especially if he slows down any further. While he's listed as a hitter only on Oregon State's roster, he has been up to 93 with his fastball and gets big riding action on the pitch while adding a decent slider. Unlike most players on this list, the Shoreline, Washington native is actually young for the class, not old, and has plenty of time to fill out and grow into the player he could be. I'm bullish on Haight's upside, especially if he can tack on twenty or so pounds over the next couple of years.

9. (#125) SS Owen Paino, Mississippi (2027)
Undrafted
Owen Paino has long been one of the most famous names in the high school class of 2024, earning significant first round buzz early in his high school career. His star faded a bit over the last calendar year-plus leading up to the draft, and he'll end up in Oxford after failing to receive as much day one interest as he would have liked. Ole Miss returns much of its infield innings from last year and landed Luke Cheng in the transfer portal from Illinois State, though none can out-hit Paino by much if at all and he should be quick to earn playing time for head coach Mike Bianco. As evidenced by an extensive track record against top high school showcase competition going back years, he's an advanced hitter that knows both how to use the whole field and how to turn on the ball for power to the pull side. Listed at 6'3", he has a very physical frame that not only looks like it belongs right away in the SEC, it wouldn't look out of place in the majors. Despite that, he's more strong than explosive and the power is closer to average for now, but he could easily get to above average as he continues to get stronger and learns to leverage the ball out to all fields more consistently. He's heady on the dirt and has a shot to play shortstop at Ole Miss, though his size may push him to third base in the long run if he slows down at all. It's a very well-rounded profile that probably has more floor than upside at this point, but expect him to be a three year performer for the Rebels who can make an impact right away.

10. (#126) C Cade Arrambide, Louisiana State (2027)
Undrafted
LSU is no stranger to recruiting some of the best prep catching talent in the country, and Cade Arrambide gives them an extremely fun profile behind the plate to boot. Additionally, he has a great chance to jump straight into significant playing time as every single catcher from last year's roster is gone, leaving the position wide open. Mississippi JuCo transfer Blaise Priester will give Arrambide a run for his money back there, while Dayton transfer Edward Yamin is the only other catcher listed on the roster and he played mostly first base back in Ohio anyways. Arrambide is as explosive as they come back there. He whips the bat around like a toothpick with a sturdy 6'2" frame and strong forearms that translate to plus raw power at the plate. There is a ton of movement in his operation, most notably a deep hitch in his right handed swing that delays his trigger a bit and could make it tough to catch up to SEC pitching out of the gate. It can affect his ability to get to his gargantuan power against better pitching and will be a point of emphasis during his first fall and offseason in Baton Rouge. That explosiveness translates behind the plate, where he just might have an 80 grade cannon for a right arm. The Houston-area product moves extremely well behind the plate with sneaky athleticism and outstanding body control, giving him the ability to not only throw from all angles, but get power on his throws while doing so. That combination of body control and arm strength allows him to throw runners out on pitches he has no business sending back to second base, such as this one last summer. The glovework itself is a little rougher and will need refinement in Baton Rouge, but I fully expect him to make the necessary adjustments to get close enough to average in that regard. He may spend some time at other positions while he splits time with Priester back there in 2025 but he could be the next star catcher in purple in gold soon enough.

11. (#129) OF Ty Head, North Carolina State (2026)
Undrafted
Turnover has become the norm in Raleigh, and 2025 will be no different with what looks to be a new-look offense almost entirely up and down the offense. With a lack of experienced high impact transfers on the offensive side of the ball as well, Ty Head has a great opportunity to grab everyday playing time right out of the gate. One of the most advanced prep hitters in Florida, he'll be plenty ready for ACC pitching as well. Head has a sublime approach at the plate that puts him on base with great regularity, using an all fields approach to make plenty of contact. Coming in at a lanky 6'3", he lacks the pure strength to produce more than fringy power at this point but could grow into average power in time as he gets on the NC State conditioning program. An above average runner, he has great instincts in the outfield and could slide into the center field role in Raleigh right away, with a shot to continue doing so in pro ball in the long term. The power will be nice to have in the long run if he ever grows into it, especially in pro ball, but for now the hit/defense combination is exactly what pushes freshman into the lineup on day one. He's very old for an incoming freshman like many other players on this list so he'll be draft eligible again as a sophomore, so breaking into that lineup and growing into some impact will be key for his 2026 draft stock.

12. (#132) OF Derek Curiel, Louisiana State (2026)
Undrafted
As arguably the pre-eminent recruiters in all of college baseball at this point, it was perhaps a bit of a surprise to see that LSU did not land a top-nine position player prospect, but they made up for it by landing #10 and #12 and therefore joining TCU as one of two schools with two names on this list (they'll also be well represented on the pitching list, which is coming out next). Derek Curiel has followed a somewhat similar path to Owen Paino in that he has long been one of the most famous names in the prep class of 2024, earning first round consideration early in his high school career alongside Paino. Long one of the most advanced hitters on the West Coast, he has a long track record of performance against top competition stretching years back. Curiel employs a loose, effortless left handed swing that he whips through the zone with great extension, helping him use the whole field effectively and fill the gaps with extra base hits. Standing 6'2", he's very skinny and lacks power at this point, while I'm not sure how much added strength his narrow frame will support. He'll likely always be hit over power, which will mean high on-base percentages both at LSU and beyond. Defensively, his above average speed and strong instincts will help him slot into center field at some point in his LSU career and potentially play the position in pro ball too. His advanced hitting ability will carry him towards the top couple rounds in 2026, when he'll be eligible as a sophomore, and he could push his way back into day one if he shows some power. The profile overall reminds me of Nationals prospect and former first round pick Robert Hassell.

Others
13. (#133) OF Terrence Kiel II, Texas A&M (2027)
14. (#138) C James Nunnallee, Virginia (2027)
15. (#145) OF D'Marion Terrell, Auburn (2027)
16. (#146) C Anderson French, Virginia Tech (2027)
17. (#154) SS Erik Parker, Georgia (2027)
18. (#156) C Burke Mabeus, Oregon (2026)
19. (#157) SS Manny Marin, Tennessee (2026)
20. (#158) OF Jace Souza, Texas Tech (2027)

Sunday, October 13, 2024

The top ten unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2025

It took me longer than usual to get all my draft reviews done, but with those out of the way, it's time to take a look at the best prospects to eschew pro ball for now. We'll start with the college prospects, and first let's look at the five from last year's list to go unsigned. Of the five, only one had a truly successful season, as #2 Lebarron Johnson (Texas) pitched his way to a fifth round selection by the Rockies. #1 Tanner Witt (Texas) couldn't stay healthy and #4 Christian Little (LSU) stalled, so both signed for slightly above-slot bonuses on day three to the Mets and Mariners, respectively. Meanwhile, #3 Terry Busse (Georgia Tech) and #5 Joseph Gonzalez (Auburn) struggled mightily and went undrafted again.

This year's class of returners is much more robust, likely due to the continued growth of NIL opportunities that give college draftees added leverage. Last year, just five college players on my draft list went unsigned, while this year that number jumped to thirteen. There were a number of themes among those players, chiefly among them big time power combined with hit tool questions. 6/13 fall into that category, while unsurprisingly, youth and eligibility played a big factor. Each of the first six and eight of the top nine have multiple years of eligibility remaining, while six of the top seven will play the entire coming college season at age-21. After Texas took the top two players on last year's list, LSU was the only school to put two on this year's list, and I was surprised to see only one player hit the transfer portal (unsurprisingly to LSU).

1. LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M (my rank: #69)
Drafted – 3rd round (pick #81), Los Angeles Angels
This was a surprise. After missing 2023 with Tommy John surgery, Ryan Prager returned in 2024 as one of the best pitchers in the SEC and shot up draft boards due to his feel for pitching and sneaky stuff. Amid the controversy of head coach Jim Schlossnagle's abrupt exit to rival Texas, the Angels drafted Prager in the third round in what seemed like a straightforward sign. Despite the double whammy of being a college arm drafted in the top one hundred picks (usually a guarantee to sign) as well as not having the same head coach to come back to, he still declined Los Angeles and returned to College Station to pitch for new Aggie head coach Michael Earley. That's a massive win and will go a long way to ensuring a smooth transition in College Station. Prager himself is a bit of an old school pitcher. His fastball parks around 90 and tops out at 94, showing massive riding life negated a bit by an ultra high, over the top release point. The pitch shows some cutting action, too, and it got great results in 2024. His slider gets late drop and performed admirably, looking like an above average breaker, while his straight changeup gives him a third at least average pitch. Everything plays up for Prager because he works effectively in the zone with plus command and high pitching IQ, mixing and matching his stuff effectively to keep hitters off it. The 6'3" lefty also brings some deception in his delivery with a deep arm plunge that helps hide the ball from view, rocking back over into his over the top delivery. Already a high pitchability arm, Prager will return to school with yet another year of polish in his age-22 season and will look to frustrate SEC hitters again. He'll be a few months shy of his 23rd birthday when the 2025 draft rolls around, but he'll still have leverage as a redshirt junior and even if the signing bonus is lower, the Dallas native figures to make plenty of money through NIL.

2. SS Jalin Flores, Texas (my rank: #103)
Undrafted
Not only did Texas pry Jim Schlossnagle away from Texas A&M, they'll also unexpectedly bring back star shortstop Jalin Flores. After bringing back #1 Tanner Witt and #2 Lebarron Johnson from my draft list a year ago, Texas has three of the four top-2 returners over the past two seasons. It must be the barbecue. Flores was a very well-known prospect in the 2022 draft out of the San Antonio high school ranks, clocking in at #82 on my draft board and the #4 high school position player prospect to reach campus. He was overmatched as a freshman in 2023, struggling in a part-time role, but jumped into the lineup every day in 2024 and put up a massive season to regain most of his lost draft stock. At a listed 6'2", 210 pounds, this is a big league body with long limbs and room to add additional strength to his already physical frame. He uses his strength well in the box, effortlessly tapping his average raw power in games and making good contact against all pitch types when he stays within the zone. It's a really natural operation, one which should serve him well as he fills out and improves his approach. The latter, though, is very pressing and likely led to teams not meeting his bonus demands. Flores is an extreme free-swinger at the plate, often looking like he lacks a plan as he chases more than a third of the time and struck out (20.1%) nearly three times as often as he walked (7.6%). I'm personally a believer in his natural hitting ability and I think if the new Schlossnagle regime can get him executing a plan in the box, he has a chance to jump into the top two rounds in 2025. Interestingly, his defensive profile is the opposite in some ways. While he's not flashy and doesn't run well, his excellent body control and strong feel for the dirt has kept him at shortstop thus far, and he has a shot to continue there in pro ball. Even if he's pushed to third base by a more explosive defender, he could be well above average there with a strong arm to boot.

3. SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian (my rank: #117)
Undrafted
Jalin Flores and Anthony Silva have seen their careers parallel each other to an eerie degree. Born just two weeks apart in July 2003, they attended rival high schools just four miles apart in the San Antonio suburbs and ranked as the #6 and #4 position player prospects to reach campus from the high school Class of 2022, respectively (ranking #89 and #82). While Flores struggled as a freshman at Texas, Silva was excellent for TCU and pushed his way into the fringes of the first round conversation entering 2024. However, as Flores exploded, Silva moved in the opposite direction with a tough sophomore season, and both sophomore-eligible prospects wound up near each other yet again ranking #103 and #117 on my board, respectively. Both priced themselves out of the draft, and they'll both return to their respective schools in the Lone Star State as they rank #2 and #3 on this list. Silva, like I mentioned, was a star for the Horned Frogs in 2023, slashing .330/.416/.471 with just a 12.5% strikeout rate, but dropped to just .268/.369/.384 in 2024 with an 18.6% strikeout rate. Local evaluators noted that he looked stiffer than before. Still, Silva's track record between high school and his big freshman season is plenty enough to remain interested. At his best, he's a very disciplined hitter that makes plenty of contact, adjusting to balls all over the zone to use the whole field effectively with a line drive bat. Listed with almost the exact same measurables as Flores (6'2", 200 pounds), he also has room to grow into more strength but to this point he has not, with fringy exit velocities pointing to 5-10 home runs per season if things don't change. But with high contact rates and potential strength gains, he could easily elevate that projection in 2025. Silva's real selling point, though, is his glove. As a freshman, he glided around the dirt with smooth actions and plenty of arm strength to project as above average at the position, to the point where he really wouldn't have to hit much to provide value at the major league level. He didn't look quite as flashy in 2024, though, and if he continues on that trend he'll be forced to second or third base. Back in Fort Worth, he'll look to return to his freshman self and push back into the top couple of rounds.

4. OF Chris Stanfield, Auburn -> Louisiana State (my rank: #120)
Undrafted
With the way NIL money gets doled out nowadays, Chris Stanfield might have gotten something better than a day two draft selection – an opportunity to transfer to LSU. Stanfield is no stranger to the draft, having ranked #182 on my 2022 board out of high school in Tallahassee, spurning teams at the time so he could attend Auburn. He jumped into the starting lineup as a freshman and has performed admirably over the past two seasons, though he never put up the big numbers he hoped for and will now head west to Baton Rouge. Still, he improved his ranking (on my board at least) by 62 slots up to #120 this year and brings a very interesting skillset to the table. He was just barely eligible this year, turning 21 in July only four days before the cutoff, so he'll still be roughly age-appropriate next year. Still projectable at 6'2", it's a skinny frame that should add more power as he matures and continues to add lean strength. For now, it's a line drive approach from a simple right handed swing that beyond strength gains, could easily add pop if he just looked to turn on the ball more. For now, the exit velocities are fringy and haven't translated to much game power. He's a patient hitter at the plate, making plenty of contact when he swings but sometimes getting overly passive and getting into trouble in deep counts. Another season in college, now under the tutelage of Jay Johnson at LSU, should help him learn to leverage the ball better for more power while controlling his at bats a bit better. Stanfield is also a plus runner who will compete for the center field job in Baton Rouge, and he could continue to stick up the middle in pro ball. That takes some pressure off his bat as well, though he may not need it if he brings everything together. It's a profile that could explode this year.

5. LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa (my rank: #150)
Drafted – 19th round (pick #585), Texas Rangers
Cade Obermueller joined the names above him as a highly regarded freshman reaching campus, the #7 pitcher to do so from the high school Class of 2022 after ranking #124 on my 2022 board, and he wasn't quite ready to leave his hometown Hawkeyes after two seasons. After spending his freshman season in the bullpen, he shined in the Cape Cod League that summer (1.83 ERA, 35/11 K/BB in 19.2 IP) and jumped into Iowa's ultra talented weekend rotation alongside Brody Brecht (Rockies, CBA round) and Marcus Morgan (Phillies, 9th round). Head coach Rick Heller thought he was going to have to completely rebuild his rotation in 2025, so bringing back Obermueller is a happy surprise and a massive win. Back at school, the Iowa City native will look to prove to teams that he can stick in the rotation long term, rather than move back to the bullpen as many project. The fastball sits in the low 90's and reaches 97 in short stints with sinking and running action, while his sweeping slider dives across the plate and looks to be a plus pitch. Those two pitches right there, from an ultra low lefty sidearm slot no less, will be Obermueller's ticket to the big leagues in some capacity. However, he hasn't thrown his changeup much and his below average command regularly puts him behind in the count, so hitters are less willing to chase his quality stuff. Throw in that he's just 5'11", 160 pounds, and it's a pretty straightforward two pitch sidearm relief profile. Back on campus, Obermueller will have three boxes to check: bulk up, bring the changeup along, and throw more strikes. If he can do maybe two of those three things, someone will take a shot on him as a starter and the move to return to school will pay off. If not, it's a pretty nasty relief profile as is.

6. OF Harrison Didawick, Virginia (my rank: #152)
Undrafted
Harrison Didawick broke into the UVA lineup as a freshman but didn't hit much, then exploded in 2024 as his home run total jumped from 4 to 23 and his OPS jumped from .794 to 1.056. Still, concerns about his swing and miss tendencies kept teams from matching his high bonus demands, and he'll return to Charlottesville for his junior season, where he'll turn 22 shortly before the 2025 draft. Didawick stands out for his power, specifically his game power. Using a short left handed stroke, he has a quick trigger and ambushes pitches over the plate to send them out with great consistency, his 23 home runs last year tying Jake Gelof's (now with the Dodgers) one year old single season UVA home run record. The pure raw power is definitely closer to above average than plus, but the loft in his left handed swing and his natural ability to elevate the ball help him tap all of it. The hit tool, though, is a concern. He struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances in 2024 and came up empty on more than 30% of his swings, pointing to below average bat to ball ability. He's reasonably patient and walked in 14% of his plate appearances, a nice number, but pro pitching will attack him in the zone and it's not clear how consistently he'll be able to handle it at the upper levels and in MLB. With fringy to average defensive tools that will keep him in an outfield corner long term, potentially even left field, the pressure will be on his bat and for him to make much more consistent contact. He'll look to do just that at UVA in 2025, where he'll still be 21 through the College World Series (actually set to turn 22 the day after the championship).

7. OF Zack Stewart, Missouri State (my rank: #166)
Undrafted
The first mid-major prospect on this list, Zack Stewart not only spurned the draft but he'll actually return to Missouri State in the MVC, something becoming less and less common nowadays with programs power programs ravaging mid-major rosters through the transfer portal. Stewart, like Harrison Didawick, is a big time left handed power hitter and nearly matched his UVA counterpart with 22 home runs this year, but he generates that power very differently. While Didawick's power comes from his ability to loft the ball with authority, Stewart's comes from pure ferociousness. He has borderline-elite top-end exit velocities, regularly popping up over 110 MPH with electric bat speed and tremendous torque generated by his 6'2", 220 pound frame. When MVC pitchers leave the ball over the plate, he can pummel it out of any stadium to any field at any point. It's the kind of power that will certainly play with wood bats once he does move on to pro ball. Also like Didawick, swing and miss is a big problem. He also struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances in 2024 and ran swing and miss rates around 30%, just like Didawick, but in this case he was doing so against an MVC schedule as opposed to UVA's strong ACC schedule. Given the strength of the pitching he was facing, that's a big concern, and his struggles in the Cape Cod League last summer didn't help (.154/.233/.205, 34.9% K rate in eleven games). Stewart will return to Springfield hoping to cut down that strikeout rate, something he should be able to do without sacrificing power given how naturally he can rip the bat through the zone. The profile reminds me a bit of former Florida State slugger Elijah Cabell, a seventeenth round pick out of Florida State in 2021 who hit .160 over three years in the Cardinals system. Stewart does have the benefit of being left handed, and he's a year younger for his class than Cabell was with a chance to shore things up in his redshirt junior season in 2025. Again like Didawick, Stewart has fringy defensive tools and will wind up in an outfield corner.

8. SS Colby Shelton, Florida (my rank: #172)
Drafted – 20th round (pick #590), Washington Nationals
Colby Shelton, a South Carolina native who attended high school in the Tampa area, started his career at Alabama and earned Freshman All-American honors with a massive 2023 for the Crimson Tide. Coaching turbulence in Tuscaloosa led him to the transfer portal, where he was one of the most sought-after targets in the country and landed in Gainesville. Florida thought they'd only get him for one year, but while he started all 66 games at shortstop and blasted twenty home runs, swing and miss concerns kept teams from meeting his bonus demands and he'll return for his junior season. Though he'll be a true junior, he'll be the age of a college senior and will play the whole 2025 season at age-22. Shelton has average raw power, but he taps all of it in games with natural loft in his left handed swing. Though he's performed for two years against SEC schedules, blasting 45 home runs in 125 games, the approach is raw and hasn't always played up during those weekend SEC series. He's an aggressive hitter that regularly expands the zone, with below average bat to ball ability that led to a very high 26.4% strikeout rate in 2024 (up from 24.6% in 2023). That makes his overall offensive profile much closer to Harrison Didawick than Zack Stewart, though he's six-plus months older than those two and has lower top-end exit velocities. Shelton has played exclusively shortstop at Florida, though his slower feet and solid arm will likely push him to third base in pro ball, where he played at Alabama and at times on the Cape.

9. 1B Jared Jones, Louisiana State (my rank: #197)
Undrafted
Jared Jones was another famous prep to reach campus from the 2022 class, heading to Baton Rouge as a catcher. While the presence of better gloves like Hayden Travinski, Alex Milazzo, and Brady Neal meant that he never put the gear on in game action, he has carved out a name for himself as one of the premier power hitters in college baseball. After crushing fourteen home runs as a freshman in 2023, he doubled that total to 28 in 2024, tied for the seventh highest total in Division I (and third highest among underclassmen). Listed at 6'4", 255 pounds, it's not surprising to hear that Jones has a thunderous right handed bat that can drive balls out to all fields with ease (he did this as a freshman). Very few players had better top-end exit velocities than Zack Stewart, but one of them was Jones who showed 70 grade raw power. Already with 42 home runs under his belt in two seasons at LSU, he'll look to break 60 or even 70+ next year. Now while he continues the power theme, he also continues the swing and miss theme on this list. It might be a 30 grade hit tool as he whiffed on nearly 40% of his swings, an abysmal number, and struck out over a quarter of the time this year (and more than 30% of the time in SEC play and 35% on the Cape). The Atlanta-area native can get overwhelmed with premium stuff and lacks the barrel accuracy to make up for it. Now that he's moved off catcher and exclusively plays first base, where his heavy feet and below average speed fit best, there's much more pressure on his bat to play. Fortunately, he has so much power that he can send the ball out even when he gets fooled, and indeed 70 of his 118 hits for LSU over his career have gone for extra bases. He'll still be 21 on draft day next year and will look to spend 2025 cutting down the swing and miss to a stomache-ble number.

10. SS Jonathan Vastine, Vanderbilt (my rank: #202)
Undrafted
Jonathan Vastine continues the theme of former highly regarded prep prospects on this list, though he's not quite the power hitter of many names above him. He played sparingly as a Vanderbilt freshman in 2022 before taking the reins as the Dores' starting shortstop in 2023, which he has held down with solid results over the past two seasons sandwiched around a strong run through the Cape Cod League in 2023 (.323/.420/.430). Undersized at 5'11", 165 pounds, he whips the bat around pretty explosively for his size and can turn on the ball for average power to his pull side, though it's probably fringy overall. Throughout his career he has employed an approach of controlled aggression at the plate, which helped him hit well against elite pitching on the Cape as well as avoid a dip in his numbers in SEC play vs non-conference play in 2024. However, that approach unraveled at times this year and he surprised some evaluators by swinging and missing at more than a 30% clip, causing his strikeout rate to balloon over 25%. Even with his defensive value, he'll have to bring that number way down given his unremarkable power. Vastine is a strong shortstop with impressive instincts, range, and arm strength, even if he's not the most explosive defender on the dirt. That will enable him to be above average at second base, shortstop, or third base in pro ball, taking pressure off his bat as he eventually works his way up as a utility infielder. The underlying metrics on Vastine were not good in 2024 and teams noticed that, so back in Nashville he'll look to tighten things up and find a way to make more contact with a more sustainable approach at the plate. I still like the way the Florida native moves on both sides of the ball and he could be a nice senior sign next year if he makes the necessary adjustments.

Bonus: RHP Jaxon Jelkin, Houston -> ? (my rank: #134)
Drafted – 9th round (pick #263), New York Mets
Jaxon Jelkin went unsigned and would technically rank #5 on this list. There's not much information out there about his current situation, but I have a good general idea of the basics and I'll do my best to lay them out. Jelkin has bounced around a lot, beginning his career as a seldom-used reliever at Nebraska in 2022 but getting dismissed from the team two months into the season. He transferred to South Mountain JC in Phoenix for 2023 where the Dodgers drafted him in the fourteenth round, then headed to Houston in 2024. He looked sharp in seven starts for the Cougars, including a thirteen strikeout performance against BYU in March, but went down with Tommy John surgery and won't get back on the mound until mid-2025 at the earliest. The Mets drafted him in the ninth round regardless, but disputes over his medicals led to the team rescinding its offer. It's not clear what his next steps will be – he's not on Houston's 2025 roster, nor any other school's, and indications seem to be that he intends to sign as a free agent which hasn't happened yet. While everything else is a question mark, nobody doubts the arm talent. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 at peak, though it shows more running than riding life. He throws two breaking balls, led by an above average slider with sweep in addition to a solid two-plane curveball that he has leaned more and more on, and together he throws the breaking balls more than his fastball. His changeup shows excellent fade and got strong results for him in 2024, projecting as a potential above average pitch. The 6'5" righty is extremely projectable and brings great athleticism on the mound, with both his command and stuff trending in the right direction throughout his college career. If he can get healthy and build up his durability, he has legitimate MLB starting pitcher upside, and if he can find more movement on his fastball, he could be a true impact starter with four above average pitches. But questions about his makeup and medical situation may be what's keeping teams away.

Others
#213 OF Kendall Diggs, Arkansas
#215 1B Hunter Hines, Mississippi State

Saturday, October 12, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

The Guardians always draft well, and this draft was no different with the largest bonus pool of any team this year. They nailed the first pick with what I thought was the best player in the draft, then signed him for a massive discount to boot. As has become tradition in Cleveland, they spread those savings over a slew of high school arms, ultimately handing out five different signing bonuses of $1.8 million or more. Though they grabbed two college bats with their first three picks, it was a pitching-heavy class as they took eight straight arms from there. I love this class for Cleveland and I'm excited to follow it.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-1: 2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State {video}
Slot value: $10.57 million. Signing bonus: $8.95 million ($1.62 million below slot value).
My rank: #1. MLB Pipeline: #1. Baseball America: #2.
Holding the first pick of the draft with a massive eight figure slot value, the Guardians could do quite literally whatever they wanted with their first pick. Not only did they wind up bringing in Travis Bazzana, in my opinion the top overall prospect in this draft, they did it while giving him $300,000 less than the #2 and #3 overall picks because Bazzana specifically preferred Cleveland as a landing spot and willingly took a discount. Bazzana is a superstar. An Australian native, he thought he was headed for JuCo ball when Oregon State came calling, and since he stepped on campus he has played in 184 of the Beavers' 188 games. After a strong freshman season and an even better sophomore year, he went out and demolished the Cape Cod League to the tune of a .382/.474/.576 line and six home runs in 36 games – apparently someone forgot to tell him this was the best pitching he would ever face at the amateur level. Already considered a top-three prospect in the draft entering the 2024 season, he went out for his best season yet and hit an absurd .407/.568/.911 with 28 home runs and more than twice as many walks (76) as strikeouts (37) in 60 games. Bazzana is listed at a modest 6', 200 pounds, but that is the end of any modesty in this profile. His ultra strong forearms help him whip the bat around like a toothpick a la Gary Sheffield, which he deploys from a crouched stance with plenty of bat waggle. From there, it's a very compact, extremely explosive operation from the left side that leads to plus raw power which he tapped plenty in games, finishing second only to #3 overall pick Charlie Condon (Rockies) with his .911 slugging percentage. But for all the juice in his bat, Bazzana is even more notable for his on-base ability. He has an elite approach at the plate with a complete unwillingness to chase pitches out of the zone, leading to the second highest on-base percentage (.568, behind Condon's Georgia teammate and Mets sixth rounder Corey Collins) and the second most walks (76, behind A's fourth overall pick Nick Kurtz) in all of Division I. He also has plus pure bat to ball skills to go with that plus-plus approach, grading out to a potential 70 grade hit tool. Unsurprisingly, he never strikes out, neither in Corvallis nor on the Cape. In production terms, this likely means 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. He'll play second base in pro ball, where his plus speed, springy actions, and average arm will make him a potential above average defender. The Guardians are certainly buying his bat first and foremost, but don't let the bat-first label take away from a solid glove. On top of it all, he has been universally praised for his work ethic with an insatiable drive to learn, diving deep into the analytical side of the game and using technology to make himself a better hitter. It's not a perfect comp, but we could be looking at a career somewhat similar to Robinson Cano if Bazzana reaches his peak. He's a bit quicker and draws a few more walks, too. The Guardians had him skip over Low A and start at High A Lake County, where he slashed .238/.369/.396 with three home runs and a 31/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games.

CBA-36: RHP Braylon Doughty, Chaparral HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $2.57 million. Signing bonus: $2.57 million.
My rank: #32. MLB Pipeline: #36. Baseball America: #47.
They resisted it for one pick, but here begins the Guardians' steady march through all the best high school pitching they could find. Floating an arm like Braylon Doughty into the competitive balance round is already a win, but doing so and still signing him for slot value while contending with an Oklahoma State commitment is an even bigger win. Doughty has one of the most electric arms in the prep class. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 97 with high spin rates albeit with average movement. More than his velocity, he stands out most as having perhaps the best feel for spin in the prep class. His slider looks like a plus pitch with deep, late bite, and he can morph things over into a sharp, truer curveball with power and depth. Like his fastball, everything his high spin, and he can simply disassemble hitters with those two breakers. He has a changeup that is coming along nicely, though like most high school pitchers it's still in its early stages. The 6'1" righty is very balanced in his delivery, showing the ability to vary his leg kick without impacting any of his other mechanics, and that helps him pound the strike zone with above average command by prep standards. There is some moderate projection in the frame, not that he needs it when he's already touching 97, and overall it's a very well-rounded profile. You don't often see this combination of power, feel for spin, and command together. His main things to work on will be finding more life for his fastball as well as bringing his changeup along, of course while holding his command together. There is #2 starter upside here for the Southern California product.

2-48: C Jacob Cozart, North Carolina State {video}
Slot value: $1.94 million. Signing bonus: $2.05 million ($111,200 above slot value).
My rank: #52. MLB Pipeline: #42. Baseball America: #44.
It's always interesting to see how teams value college catchers, especially those with more balanced skill sets as opposed to one or two standout tools. Jacob Cozart falls into that category with a profile full of average to above average tools. Earning NC State's starting catching job as a freshman in 2022, he broke out for a big sophomore season in 2023 and elevated his stock further with strong performance with the US Collegiate National Team that summer. He entered the spring firmly in the back half of the first round conversation then proceeded to put up a First Team All-ACC junior season, though his stock slipped just a little as other catchers like Walker Janek (now Astros) and Caleb Lomavita (now Nationals) were just a bit more impressive. Cozart sets up from a wide base and creates plenty of leverage at the plate with his strong 6'3" frame, leading to above average power especially to the pull side. He's a reasonably patient hitter who walked at a very high clip in 2024, nearly doubling his walk rate to 18.6% from 10.5% a year ago, showing a strong ability to control the zone that typically comes with advanced catchers. He did swing and miss much more than evaluators were hoping for in 2024, nearing a 30% whiff rate, and his numbers were much better against his non-conference schedule than against strong pitching in ACC conference play (.250/.357/.417). That's certainly a concern going forward, though his ability to stick behind the plate certainly helps a lot. Despite his big, physical frame, he's very flexible behind the plate with the ability to get down and set a low target for pitchers, helping him steal strikes. While Cozart's pure arm strength is closer to average than plus, but he's quick out of the crouch and shows enough accuracy to label the overall throwing ability at least above average. The High Point native's overall feel for catching is better than his pure physical tools, and that gives him a shot to be an above average defensive catcher at the big league level. Overall, we can expect perhaps 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, which likely puts him closer to the bottom of a competitive lineup than the top, but true everyday catchers are hard to find and Cozart could be that. As with Travis Bazzana, the Guardians skipped him over Low A and sent him straight to High A Lake County, where he struggled to a .119/.245/.143 line and an 18/7 strikeout to walk ratio over thirteen games.

3-84: RHP Joey Oakie, Ankeny Centennial HS [IA] {video}
Slot value: $906,800. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.09 million above slot value).
My rank: #42. MLB Pipeline: #46. Baseball America: #49.
Cleveland's next prep arm is their second largest over slot signing of the draft, going more than a million dollars over slot value to coax Joey Oakie away from an Iowa commitment. His $2 million bonus was just over the slot value of the #47 pick here at #84, and he gives Cleveland a really fun arm to work with. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, but it plays above its velocity with a ton of run and sink from a low slot. His sweeping slider is his best pitch for now, a plus breaker diving across the plate with an excellent combination of power and depth. With further refinement, it could be a plus-plus pitch that makes major league hitters look silly on a regular basis. As with Braylon Doughty, his changeup is behind, but he's flashed some really good ones that make you think it could be an above average pitch in time with more consistency and refinement. It's not a traditional look from Oakie, who utilizes long arm action and a low three quarters slot to sling the ball towards the plate with a flat approach angle that creates and east-west movement profile for his stuff. That arm action can impact his command when he yanks too much across his body, though his misses typically aren't too major and he stays around the zone. The 6'3" righty is plenty physical right now and shows strong athleticism on the mound, getting down the mound well and portending to future average command combined with durability. I'm really interested to see what the Guardians do with him and if they can make him a #2 or #3 starter in the long run. And lastly, I'll add that Joey Oakie is an elite baseball name.

4-113: LHP Rafe Schlesinger, Miami {video}
Slot value: $643,500. Signing bonus: $446,900 ($196,600 below slot value).
My rank: #114. MLB Pipeline: #147. Baseball America: #148.
Back to the college ranks, Rafe Schlesinger is a really interesting prospect, especially for nearly $200,000 below slot value. A Long Island native, he has channeled Tourette Syndrome to become a legitimate pro pitching prospect. He struggled with command early in his Miami career and spent his first two years in the bullpen, running a 14.3% walk rate in the process, then jumped to the Hurricanes' rotation in 2024 and slashed that walk rate to just 6.7%. A true sidearmer, his fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 97, playing up further with nasty running and sinking life from an ultra low release point barely four feet off the ground. For context, that's about two feet lower than a typical release point with about double the running life. He leans heavily on his slider, which flashes plus when located with late sweep, but which has been very inconsistent to this point. He does not use his changeup much and it's a fringy offering at this point. Schlesinger did not always have his best stuff in 2024, at times seeing his fastball dip below 90 as he more than doubled his career high in innings, and a sub-20% strikeout rate is a bit of a red flag. But when he's on, he's a sidearming lefty working into the mid 90's with a nasty slider, and that's a tough matchup. The 6'3" lefty is throwing a lot more strikes than he did in the past, and while his ability to hit spots can be inconsistent, he's certainly trending in the right direction. It's *probably* a fastball/slider relief profile, especially in an organization as deep as Cleveland's when it comes to pitching, but I wouldn't bet against him. If the Guardians can get him built up and performing with his best stuff more consistently while bringing the changeup along and holding the command, he could be a #3 or #4 starting pitcher. In three abbreviated starts for Low A Lynchburg, he allowed four runs across 7.1 innings while striking out eleven and walking three.

5-146: RHP Aidan Major, West Virginia {video}
Slot value: $466,900. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($41,900 below slot value).
My rank: #111. MLB Pipeline: #245. Baseball America: #108.
Aidan Major is another interesting arm for Cleveland, and another divisive one. He's gotten better and better at West Virginia, including coming out of the gate at his best in 2024 with a string of strong starts early in the season. He did fade a bit down the stretch then got Tommy John surgery after the season, so he slipped a couple rounds in the draft to the Guardians in the fifth round. Major has a low 90's fastball that tops out at 97, playing up with strong riding action from a relatively low release point. He can work it into a cutter, though it's probably just an average pitch. The slider is above average with great sweep, missing plenty of bats, while he uses his average changeup more liberally than most amateur pitchers. The 5'11" righty has a stocky frame that lacks projection, repeating his compact delivery well and showing above average command at times. That command can get streaky though, and it can frequently elude him. Last year, he ran just a 6.7% walk rate as a swingman, but it jumped to 12.0% this year as he slowed down later in the year. There are some durability concerns, especially with the elbow injury, so it remains to be seen whether he can stick in the rotation long term. The balanced four pitch mix and, at times, strong command should be enough to project him as such so long as he can stay not only healthy but at 100%. It will be interesting to see how the Guardians mess with his pitch mix and locations because that fastball/slider combination can be nasty when it's performing at its best.

7-205: RHP Cameron Sullivan, Mount Vernon HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: $279,100. Signing bonus: $525,000 ($245,900 above slot value).
My rank: #144. MLB Pipeline: #118. Baseball America: #106.
Going back to the prep ranks for their third high school arm, the Guardians nearly doubled the slot value with a late fourth round-caliber signing bonus to woo Cameron Sullivan away from a Notre Dame commitment. He garnered attention by coming out throwing harder this spring, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching as high as 97 with his fastball nowadays with real zip on it. His slider shape can vary between being more cuttery, taking on a bullet shape, or getting sweepy, but it shows good power and looks at its best when he keeps it tight. His changeup is behind, so for now it's mostly the fastball/slider combination that gets him by. The 6'2" righty has a nice combination of physicality and projection, with a quick, whippy arm that portends to add further power across his arsenal as he gets stronger. It's an athletic operation on the mound, though he does reach back to reach his peak velocities with a higher effort delivery, and that can impact his command. There's significant reliever risk in this profile if his offspeed stuff can't get more consistent and he can't bring that command along, though the physicality, projection, and athleticism are hard to pass up for this relatively modest half a million dollar signing bonus.

9-265: RHP Sean Matson, Harvard {video}
Slot value: $195,700. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($20,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #290.
Last year, the Guardians used their ninth round pick on Harvard righty Jay Driver, who rewarded them with a strong season at High A Lake County this year. They did the exact same thing in 2024, grabbing Harvard righty Sean Matson in the ninth round in hopes that both can be part of the Cleveland pitching staff one day. Matson has spent most of the past three seasons in the Crimson rotation, having shined in the Cape Cod League with a 0.30 ERA and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings, before embarking on his best collegiate season yet in 2024. He's not overpowering, sitting around 90 as a starter and more comfortably in the low 90's in the bullpen, touching 93. The fastball plays way above its velocity though as a combination of massive riding life and excellent extension down the mound help it get on hitters much quicker than they expect and sneak by bats at a high rate. He had success with the pitch against mediocre competition in the Ivy League and he had even more success against excellent competition on the Cape. Matson's changeup is another weapon, coming in much slower than the typical changeup before tumbling off the table. His slider has been a bit less consistent, showing nasty sweep on the Cape but looking more like a fringy offering at school where it got hit more than you'd like by Ivy League hitters. He's also experimented with a curveball that he doesn't use much. The 6'2" righty has a sturdy frame and does a good job pounding the strike zone, giving him a chance to start if he can get more consistent with his breaking balls. If not, the fastball/changeup combination could be lethal in short stints with their unique movement profiles. This will be a fun one to follow, though he did turn 22 before the draft putting him on the older side for a junior.

10-295: RHP Chase Mobley, Durant HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $183,600. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($1.62 million above slot value).
My rank: #71. MLB Pipeline: #80. Baseball America: #84.
The Guardians reached the end of day two with a ton of bonus pool money left over, so you knew a splash was coming at some point. They unloaded in the tenth round, singing yet another prep arm in Chase Mobley to a massive bonus roughly the slot value of the #51 overall pick, mid-second round, so that he shouldn't attend Florida State. Mobley has an electric right arm and has the chance to be the best prep of the class for the Guardians. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but can reach 99 at peak with running action. His slider took a step forward in 2024 as he added power to a pitch that already had nice depth, giving it a shot to become an above average pitch in time if he can tighten it up further. Unlike the other preps in this class, Mobley has an advanced changeup that can show true off the table action when he gets it right, giving it a shot to become plus in time. His mechanics divided some evaluators, though, as his short arm circle features an elbow stab in the back as he leans back over his drive foot. From there, his arm can be a bit late going forward with a three quarters slot. The overall delivery is fairly raw, but Mobley's arm strength is so explosive that you really won't find much like it around the country in the high school ranks. The 6'5" righty is tremendously projectable and should throw with less effort as he gets stronger and works with Cleveland's development staff, with his youth (only turned 18 a month before the draft) working in his favor as well. Despite the funky arm, he does stay around the zone pretty well and could have average command with further development.

14-415: OF Ryan Cesarini, St. Joseph's {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This is a really nice sleeper profile in the middle of day three. A fairly unheralded recruit out of the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area, he spent his freshman season at St. Joe's on the bench but once he seized playing time for the Hawks, he never let it go, slashing .387/.468/.622 with sixteen home runs and 28 stolen bases in 84 games over the past two seasons. In fact, he was at his very best right at the end of the season, because after going 0-5 in an opening round loss to VCU at the A-10 Tournament, he went 12-18 with three doubles, five home runs, and just two strikeouts over his final four games in Tysons Corner. That's a .667/.714/1.667 line if you're keeping track. Listed at 5'10", 205 pounds, Cesarini is not a big guy put backs plenty of strength and athleticism into his powderkeg frame. It's a compact left handed swing that helps him make a ton of contact against unremarkable A-10 pitching, with just a 13.1% career strikeout rate that reached a career low 11.8% in 2024. Though he only hit three home runs in his first 28 games in 2024, those five in his final four brought him to eight on the season and he shows more pop than you'd expect from a smaller guy, with impressive top-end exit velocities that help him project for potentially average power. Obviously he's untested against higher level pitching, but that's a really, really nice combination of contact and power for this part of the draft. Beyond that, Cesarini is a plus runner with a shot to stick in center field, giving him potentially average or better grades in all five tools. Honestly, this is one of my favorite under the radar picks that could seem like org depth to the naked eye. Indeed he performed very well in a small sample at Low A Lynchburg, slashing .283/.370/.543 with three stolen bases and a 10/7 strikeout to walk ratio in thirteen games.

Monday, October 7, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

With their massive bonus pool, the Reds were essentially able to pull in two first round picks by floating Tyson Lewis down to the second round in exchange for a late first round bonus. There was an interesting theme here in which four of the first five college players they drafted were very well-known prospects as preps, with three of them even earning first round consideration at points in their high school careers. The Reds also valued bats that could stick up the middle and provide defensive value, something they've done in the past as well.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-2: RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $9.79 million. Signing bonus: $9.25 million ($535,000 below slot value).
My rank: #5. MLB Pipeline: #6. Baseball America: #4.
The Reds are no stranger to successfully drafting pitchers extremely early, with names such as Rhett Lowder (#7, 2023), Nick Lodolo (#7, 2019), and Hunter Greene (#2, 2017) all gracing their current rotation. Chase Burns, meanwhile, has a chance to be the best of an already strong group. A well-known prep out of the Nashville area in 2021, his triple digit fastball placed him squarely in the top fifty conversation that year but he ultimately stayed home to attend Tennessee. His talent was immediately clear as he put up a huge freshman season in 2022, even earning National Freshman of the Year honors from some outlets, then put up another strong sophomore season in 2023 even if his ERA was a bit higher. Already a clear first round prospect, Burns rocked the college baseball world after the season by transferring to Wake Forest, where he hoped to leverage the program's famed pitching lab to push his game to even the next level. The stuff came out even crisper than before and his 191 strikeouts led Division I by a large margin, thirty ahead of White Sox #5 overall pick Hagen Smith (Arkansas). Burns is nothing short of a monster on the mound. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has touched as high as 102 in the past, coming in with big riding life from an over the top angle and strong extension. His slider is an absolutely filthy offering in the upper 80's with a lethal combination of power and sweep, a pitch he could tell you was coming and you could still never touch it. Burns also added a power curveball this year that he used less than his slider, but which still projects as plus with strong results. Lastly, he doesn't use it much but he's begun to work in a hard changeup around 90 to give lefties another look. While the operation looked a bit stiff in high school, he's smoothed out his delivery in Knoxville and Winston-Salem and now pounds the strike zone with average command and above average control, aggressively attacking hitters to force his way ahead in counts. A high-level competitor, he brings a ton of energy to the mound and will never back down from the moment. If there's one blemish, it's that his delivery and over the top arm path lack deception, which can lead to his fastball getting hit over the plate. He only allowed 32 runs all season, but he served up fourteen long balls. If the 6'3" righty can improve his fastball command just a tick or two, he has a shot to be the ace of a rotation full of top ten picks.

2-51: SS Tyson Lewis, Millard West HS [NE] {video}
Slot value: $1.8 million. Signing bonus: $3.05 million ($1.25 million above slot value).
My rank: #29. MLB Pipeline: #39. Baseball America: #43.
After saving half a million on Chase Burns, the Reds essentially leveraged that into another first round pick by signing Tyson Lewis to roughly the slot value for the #29 pick here at #51, steering him away from an Arkansas commitment. While MLB Pipeline and Baseball America's rankings may see that as an overpay, I'm a big fan of the pick and I think he has a chance to be the next star in what has become a long line of talented Reds infielders. A native of tiny Yutan, Nebraska, just past the ever-creeping sprawl of Omaha's cookie cutter HOA developments, he transferred from Yutan High School to local powerhouse Millard West High School in the suburbs to get more exposure. First and foremost, Lewis stands out for his athleticism. He has, without exaggeration, some of the most explosive hands in the class that help him fling the bat through the zone with ease while doing damage all over the plate. When he stays within himself, he shows easy average power, though he can get caught trying to do too much and that can artificially lengthen his swing. As he fills out his projectable 6'2" frame, he should grow into above average power, giving him a shot at 20+ home runs per season. The hit tool has been less consistent, though he is trending in the right direction and the Reds are confident he'll continue to do so. Meanwhile, Lewis shines in the dirt with quick feet and plus speed that give him a great shot to stick at shortstop in the long run. He'll have to clean up his overall glovework, but the physical tools are all there and again, the Reds are confident he can do so. If it all comes together, he has a shot to become a potential 20-20 shortstop. You can teach all kinds of skills but you can't teach the way this man moves on the diamond.

CBB-71: RHP Luke Holman, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $1.11 million. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($113,100 below slot value).
My rank: #57. MLB Pipeline: #45. Baseball America: #40.
These last two Reds picks just go to show the unpredictability of the draft, as Baseball America had Luke Holman ranked ahead of Tyson Lewis, but Lewis went twenty picks earlier and signed for triple the money. Holman followed a similar path to Chase Burns as a well-known prep out of the Reading, Pennsylvania area who had interest in the top five rounds but made it to campus at Alabama instead. Spending 2022 as a reliever, he turned in a strong season in the Crimson Tide rotation in 2023 and like Burns, transferred to a powerhouse program, though he went to LSU amid coaching drama in Tuscaloosa. In Baton Rouge, Holman came out of the gate absolutely untouchable with 25.2 consecutive scoreless innings, including a dozen strikeout performance against Texas and six hitless innings against Xavier (a feat he later repeated against Kentucky in the SEC Tournament). While he didn't quite hold that pace against better hitters in the SEC, he was one of the few power conference pitchers to turn in ace-like numbers in a year where offense was up across the board and it felt like everyone was playing in Coors Field, and the Reds are thrilled to get him for a much lower signing bonus than many expected. Despite the performance, the stuff doesn't jump off the page. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with big riding and running life, negated just a bit by a high release point. He throws two breaking balls, mostly leaning on his above average slider with nice late tilt while adding a fringy curveball with truer 12-6 break. Holman doesn't use his changeup much and it's below average. The 6'4" righty stands out most for his fastball command, which helps him elicit chases at a higher rate than most fastballs and limit hard contact. He's gotten better at commanding his offspeed stuff as well, and overall he has run walk rates under 10% in all three of his collegiate seasons. Holman is a smart pitcher who controls at bats and could move quickly through the minors, though his ceiling may be a bit limited to that of a #3 or #4 starter given the lack of true strikeout stuff.

3-87: OF Mike Sirota, Northeastern {video}
Slot value: $865,800. Signing bonus: $863,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #64. MLB Pipeline: #50. Baseball America: #70.
The Reds are buying low on Mike Sirota in hopes that he turns things around and returns to form. One of the best hitters in the Northeast as a sophomore, he eased concerns about the level of pitching he faced in the CAA by slashing .281/.395/.430 over 41 games and two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Entering 2024, he was considered a consensus first round prospect and even heard his name thrown around in top ten conversations as the best mid major prospect in the country. Unfortunately, 2024 did not go as planned as pitchers completely stopped throwing to him, and his batting average dropped from .344 to .298 and his slugging percentage from .674 to .513. When Sirota is going right, you'd be hard pressed to find a better all-around player in the country. Listed at 6'3", 190 pounds, he has an ideal frame packed with lean strength and with projection remaining. Like Tyson Lewis, he has elite hands in the box to unleash a lightning quick bat, enabling him to see the ball deep and spray the ball around the field with authority. With a bit of an uppercut, he can make his average power play up in games and he blasted eighteen home runs in 2023, back when he was getting pitches to hit. Sirota is an extremely patient hitter as well, running elite chase rates and walking in 23% of his plate appearances in 2024, helping him finish a 143 game Northeastern career with an impressive .457 on-base percentage. While he doesn't chase, the primary hole in Sirota's game has always been swing and miss. He has run higher strikeout rates than you'd like in the CAA, even in 2023 when he was at his best, and also struck out 23.7% of the time in his two years on the Cape. You can sneak high heat by him and he'll swing through high quality breaking balls in the zone, so if you know how to pitch him, you can get him out. Not only will Sirota have to regain the form he had in 2023, he'll also need to remedy the in-zone swing and miss that has always been an issue. Defensively, the Queens native has the potential to be a plus defender in center field with his plus speed and plus arm. That takes pressure off the bat and gives him a nice floor as a glove-first fourth outfielder. The Reds think they can get him back to his old self, where he entered the 2024 season with projections of hitting 20-25 home runs per season with high, walk-driven on-base percentages. If you squint, and if he can make a little more contact, you can see a right handed Brandon Nimmo-like package here.

4-117: 2B Peyton Stovall, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $618,800. Signing bonus: $625,000 ($6,200 above slot value).
My rank: #85. MLB Pipeline: #77. Baseball America: #123.
Continuing a bit of a theme, Peyton Stovall was also considered a top prospect for the 2021 draft out of high school. In fact, Stovall was considered an even better prospect than both Burns and Holman that year following a massive senior season at Haughton High School outside of Shreveport (alma mater of Dak Prescott) in which he torched northern Louisiana pitching. Despite being firmly in the first round conversation, he held firm on his commitment to Arkansas and as the #25 player on my board, he ranked as the top position player and #2 overall prospect reaching campus that year behind UCLA's (and now the A's') Gage Jump. A starter in Fayetteville from day one, he battled nagging injuries throughout his time there and didn't quite break out until this year, where he re-established himself as an early round draft prospect. Stovall doesn't have a standout tool, but the whole is greater than the sum of his parts. He gets to balls all over the zone with a simple left handed swing and adjustable hands, totaling out to above average bat to ball ability. Combine that with a patient approach and it's an above average hit tool, though his strikeout rate has been just a bit higher than you'd expect given the high contact and low chase rates. While he's not huge at 5'11", his strong pitch recognition helps him turn balls when he needs to and tap his average power in games, giving his overall offensive profile a nice projection for something like 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages. Stovall is not the most explosive athlete with fringy defensive tools across the board, but he's gritty in the dirt and gets the job done with a steady glove and willingness to go all out for balls in the hole. That gives him every chance to stick at second base and potentially fill in at third base in a reserve role, though his arm would be stretched there. This is a well-rounded profile that strikes you as the kind you'd like to have in your dugout. In his brief pro debut, he slashed .235/.355/.333 with more walks (9) than strikeouts (7) in sixteen games for Low A Daytona.

5-150: LHP Tristan Smith, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $448,700. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($151,300 above slot value).
My rank: #151. MLB Pipeline: #73. Baseball America: #81.
And what do you know, we have another former top high school prospect, this time from the 2022 class. Tristan Smith was considered one of the better high school pitchers in the country that year and had his name on the fringes of the first round conversation, but he wound up at Clemson where he put up two solid seasons. The profile is pretty similar to what it was two years ago. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, albeit with average movement. His slider is his best pitch, flashing plus with sharp two plane bite, while his above average changeup was one of the better left handed cambios in this class. The 6'2" lefty creates some deception with a crossfire delivery that makes it difficult to pick up the ball, but he can also be a bit of a stiff mover. His fastball command is subpar at this point and makes it difficult to get ahead and stay ahead in counts, running a walk rate over 15% for his career. Interestingly, he does command the slider well which further plays into its projection as a plus pitch. There are clear things to work on here, notably the fastball command and fastball movement profile, but there are also clear separators here as a physical lefty with two above average offspeed pitches. He also showed very well against elite competition in the Cape Cod League last summer (3.29 ERA, 38/14 K/BB in 27.1 innings) and has a long track record of performance going back to his prep days. After signing for fourth round money as a draft-eligible sophomore, Smith has a chance to pitch his way into a mid-rotation starting role if he can figure out his fastball, with a fallback as a three pitch lefty reliever.

8-239: RHP Luke Hayden, Indiana State {video}
Slot value: $217,400. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($19,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #400.
Luke Hayden is a semi-local pick for the Reds. Having grown up just over one hundred miles west of Cincinnati in in Bloomington, Indiana, where he attended Edgewood High School in nearby Ellettsville, he stayed home for school and spent two years at Indiana University. He struggled there with an ERA over seven and a WHIP nearing two, then transferred to Indiana State for a much better junior season. He committed to transfer once more to LSU in 2025, but took the Reds offer here in the eighth round instead. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97-98 at peak, showing high spin but overall average movement. Like Smith, his go-to offspeed is an above average slider with hard, late snap, a pitch which can get both lefties and righties out. Without much of a changeup, combined with a high effort delivery that leads to below average command, he projects as a reliever in pro ball. In that role, the fastball velocity could climb even higher to offset the lack of life and he could pitch more consistently off of his slider. In four relief appearances for Low A Daytona, he allowed three runs (two earned) over five innings while striking out six and walking two.

10-299: C Yanuel Casiano, Albergue Olimpico Academy [PR] {video}
Slot value: $182,200. Signing bonus: $122,500.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #438.
In Yanuel Casiano, the Reds have picked up the single youngest player in the entire draft. The only player in the class born in 2007, he won't even turn 18 until just before his first spring training. Previously a UCF commit, he will instead take his time and move slowly through the Reds system. Casiano is a glove-first catcher who has impressed evaluators with plus arm strength and quickness out of the crouch, though the accuracy isn't quite there yet and his throws can pull infielders off the bag. He's a solid defender behind the plate who as you'd expect has lots of work to do to refine things, but among his age group peers, he's exactly where he needs to be to become a big league caliber catcher. The bat is a bit behind. He hasn't performed much against high level showcase competition and didn't send evaluators home thinking they had the next Mike Piazza on their hands this spring. There's some pop to the pull side, but not enough to be a separator. The Reds see an extremely young kid who should have only been a high school junior last year and expect significant strength gains as he matures, with a sturdy 6' frame that could carry plenty of muscle in time. If all goes well, he has a chance to be a glove-first backup catcher with enough power to keep pitchers honest.

15-449: RHP Jordan Little, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Jordan Little may have ran an 8.58 ERA over the course of his three year college career, but the Reds see big stuff and think they can get the most out of it. He began his career at East Carolina, where he made just five appearances over two seasons and allowed eight runs over 2.2 innings, then transferred to Virginia Tech. He got blown up at times and ran a 6.66 ERA, but that number drops to 2.74 if you remove his three worst appearances out of 21 and he looked as sharp as anybody on the roster when he was at his best. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 96 and coming in with hard running action from a lower release point. That gives him a real above average fastball, one which should continue to chew up bats in pro ball. He actually throws his slider more than his fastball, a big breaking two-plane breaker in the low 80's that missed a ton of bats in 2024 despite its high usage. Little is athletic on the mound and despite his name brings plenty of projection in his ideal 6'4" frame. There is some jerk in his delivery, but the command is actually pretty solid and his poor results were more a matter of inconsistent feel for his stuff rather than inconsistent command. He's likely a reliever all the way, though with two above average pitches, projection remaining, and solid command for a reliever, he has a chance to earn meaningful innings in Cincinnati.