Wednesday, August 27, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles

Full list of draftees

With two compensation picks after losing Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander, a CBA pick from the Bryan Baker trade, and a CBB pick won in the competitive balance lottery, the Orioles had six of the first 69 picks, four beyond what the draft would normally give a team. Because of that, despite picking nineteenth in the draft, they had the largest bonus pool of any team by a whopping $2 million margin. With all those resources, they put together a fantastic class headlined by four bats at the top and seven bats in their first nine picks. I really like the talent they pulled in, with a few picks that I thought no way would they have a chance to draft. One interesting trend was small schools, including schools like Ashland University (OH), University of the Cumberlands (KY), Mineral Area JC (MO), Johnson County JC (KS), and many others. They also pulled in some fantastic names like Ike Irish, Wehiwa Aloy, Slater de Brun, Jaiden Lo Re, and KK Clark.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-19: C Ike Irish, Auburn
Slot value: $4.42 million. Signing bonus: $4.42 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #7. MLB Pipeline: #11. Baseball America: #13.
Letting Ike Irish get to the Orioles at pick #19 was a mistake, especially given his slot value signing bonus. There might not be a better pure bat in the class. Irish was a member of the vaunted Orchard Lake St. Mary's Prep team in Michigan that included Alex Mooney (Guardians), Nolan Schubart (Guardians), and Brock Porter (Rangers), where he earned interest in the top couple of rounds but stood firm in his commitment to Auburn. He hit the ground running on The Plains, and after three seasons and 160 games he can look back on 39 home runs and a .350/.435/.625 slash line for the Tigers. Irish sets up from a wide base and gets his barrel long through the zone, and while his flat swing was initially more geared for line drives, he has been getting it up in the air more and more with 6, 14, and 19 home runs in each of his three seasons, respectively. There is plus raw power in the tank that has gone from playing average to now above average in games. Previously a relatively aggressive hitter, he has trended in the right direction with his approach too and upped his walk rate from 9.5% to 10.6% to 12.8%. Getting better pitches to hit has helped him tap his power more in games, with his .469 on-base percentage and .710 slugging percentage both representing career highs in 2025. While you would think Irish a slugger, he actually stands out the most for his bat to ball, running excellent contact rates both inside and outside the zone and proving extremely difficult to strike out. In fact, he hit over .300 with an on-base percentage over .400 in a 62 game sample over two seasons in the elite Cape Cod League, proving one of the most professional bats in the class. His combination of big league physicality, hand-eye coordination, and improving loft and patience makes him a potential middle of the order masher in Baltimore. At peak, he could crush 25+ home runs per season while posting high batting averages. While his bat will play anywhere, Baltimore really hopes he can stick behind the plate. He's fringy back there for now with some clunkier actions, leading Auburn to play him primarily in right field in 2025, though he does have a strong arm. With robo-umps coming, Irish might have a better shot to stick, though he'll need to clean up the blocking. If not, his below average speed will make him a fringy but playable defender in an outfield corner. I am a big fan of this bat and frankly I think he'll be valuable even if he's a DH, which he won't be quite yet.

1C-30: C Caden Bodine, Coastal Carolina
Slot value: $3.11 million. Signing bonus: $3.11 million.
My rank: #37. MLB Pipeline: #32. Baseball America: #29.
The second straight catcher to start off the draft, Caden Bodine has a very, very different profile from Ike Irish. While Irish is a masher who may not stick behind the plate, Bodine is an ultra high contact bat who certainly will. His bat to ball is the stuff of legends. He consistently runs contact rates hovering around 90%, which is 70 grade territory, and he can go weeks without swinging and missing inside the strike zone. His strikeout rate in 2025 was a minuscule 7.7%, the third lowest of any college bat on my draft list (behind Jake Cook's 6.7% [Blue Jays] and Kane Kepley's 7.1% [Cubs]), the product of a simple, effortless swing that he repeats from both the left and right side of the plate with the utmost consistency. That was the case in the Cape Cod League as well, where he hit .382 and struck out just 12.6% of the time against some of the best pitchers college baseball has to offer. Now, that high contact approach comes with limited power. While he crushed eleven home runs as a freshman in 2023, he dropped to nine in 2024 and finished 2025 with just five. He runs pedestrian exit velocities and his stocky 5'10" frame is maxed out. This will not be a bat that challenges for double digit home run totals too often. Instead, it's more of a Mike Redmond-like profile that will get on base at a high clip for a long time. Meanwhile, Bodine is a sound defender who blocks well and really stands out for his framing, lauded as among the best in college baseball. So if we get robo umps, Baltimore is covered with Irish, and if we don't, Bodine will continue to steal strikes at a high clip. The South Jersey native has average arm strength, but it plays up because he gets rid of the ball quickly with accurate throws. To my eye, I see quite a few similarities to Kevin Bazzell coming out of Texas Tech a year ago, albeit with a slightly elevated profile all-around except in the power department, though Bazzell has struggled in the Nationals organization this year.

1C-31: SS Wehiwa Aloy, Arkansas
Slot value: $3.04 million. Signing bonus: $3.04 million.
My rank: #24. MLB Pipeline: #17. Baseball America: #16.
Judging by most public rankings, I was one of the lower guys on Wehiwa Aloy and even I look at this as a steal. Aloy seemed more likely to hear his name in the teens than to drop into the thirties, yet the Orioles scooped him up at #31 and didn't even have to go over slot value to sign him. He began his career at Sacramento State, where he was named WAC Freshman of the Year and was a near-consensus First Team Freshman All-American, picking up the honor in virtually every publication but Baseball America. Transferring to Arkansas for his sophomore season, he couldn't quite replicate the success against SEC pitching as his batting average fell over one hundred points and his slugging percentage nearly two hundred. However, he showed extremely well on the Cape that summer (.309/.352/.642) and rode that success to a huge junior year in 2025, hitting .350/.434/.673 with 21 home runs in 65 games on his way to winning college baseball's most prestigious award – the Golden Spikes Award. Aloy is a ballplayer, to say the least. Clocking in at a listed 6'2", 200 pounds, he quietly taps plus raw power with a leveraged swing that he keeps under control and deploys to all fields. That power has given him 49 home runs in 181 career college games, plus eight in 21 games with wood bats on the Cape. He is an extremely aggressive hitter that has upped his walk rate from 5.7% as a freshman to 9.1% as a sophomore to 10.3% as a junior, but he's up there to hack. Aloy gets into trouble expanding the zone and has pretty consistently run strikeout rates in the 20% range virtually everywhere he's gone, which is a tad high for a first round college bat, but it simply has not impacted his production at all and no matter the caliber of arms he faces, the results seem to be the same – loud. He does not get cheated in his at bats and if he's going to come up empty, he'll come up empty three times on three "A" swings. Usually, he connects with one of them and he's finding extra bases. The feel for the barrel is excellent even if he swings and misses a fair amount, especially outside the zone. Sooner or later the aggressive approach may catch up with him, so the Orioles will watch for that as he reaches the upper levels of the minors and beyond. Aloy can move pretty well but lacks the plus speed of many big league shortstops, instead relying on improving glovework and a strong arm to get the job done. At this point, the Hawaiian has made enough progress defensively that he looks the part of a big league shortstop that can pick it with the pros, and if a Gold Glover forces him to second or third base, he could be a plus defender at either. The ultimate projection here could be 25+ home runs annually, though the on-base percentages could really end up anywhere.

CBA-37: OF Slater de Brun, Summit HS [OR]
Slot value: $2.63 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($1.37 million above slot value).
My rank: #26. MLB Pipeline: #24. Baseball America: #30.
After signing college bats to slot value bonuses with their first three picks, the Orioles went way over slot value to give Slater de Brun a $4 million bonus and divert him away from a Vanderbilt commitment, money that represents roughly the value of the #22 pick. There has been a recent trend of undersized, powder keg prep outfielders from west of the Mississippi coming through following Jett Williams (Mets) and Slade Caldwell (Diamondbacks), and de Brun fits that mold. Generously listed at 5'10", 185 pounds, de Brun like Williams and Caldwell plays well above his size. He has a quick, adjustable left handed swing geared for line drives, and when combined with advanced plate discipline he is constantly finding his way on base and battering pitches all around the zone. There is solid pure bat to ball in the profile as well, and he had no trouble with Oregon high school pitching this year. Once he gets to two strikes, he widens his stance and limits his stride so as to make for one of the toughest strikeouts in prep baseball. While he's undersized, he has worked hard to pack strength onto his smaller frame and came out this spring looking pretty chiseled, giving what was previously well below average power a chance to get to fringy. It may not sound like much, but a potential .300 hitter with high on-base percentages knocking 10-15 home runs per season is an All Star. That's especially true when you consider de Brun's plus-plus speed and plus glovework in center field, giving him a shot to steal bases in bunches while competing for Gold Gloves out there. The Bend, Oregon native is a high-IQ baseball player with excellent instincts, strong makeup, and a high energy style of play that will endear him to Orioles fans quickly upon his arrival in a few seasons. To top it off, he is relatively young for the class and only turned 18 a month before the draft. Baltimore hopes it has its leadoff man and center fielder of the future here.

2-58: LHP Joseph Dzierwa, Michigan State
Slot value: $1.6 million. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($100,600 below slot value),
My rank: #53. MLB Pipeline: #74. Baseball America: #50.
Pivoting to their first pitcher of the class after four straight bats, the Orioles also began to slowly recoup the seven figure hole they dug themselves into with their bonus pool after taking Slater de Brun in the competitive balance round. Joseph Dzierwa is a very interesting under slot candidate and one which I will enjoy following. A native of tiny Haskins, Ohio, about fifteen miles southwest of Toledo, he headed north to Michigan State for college and almost immediately jumped into the front of the Spartans rotation. After two solid seasons, he broke out with a massive 2025 in which he put up a 1.42 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 137/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.2 innings, enough to earn Big Ten Pitcher of the Year accolades. Perhaps his most impressive outing came on May 2nd, when he tossed a complete game, three hit shutout against eventual #12 national seed Oregon, striking out eleven against zero walks. Dzierwa is not a power pitcher, instead combining his size, handedness, and command to keep hitters perpetually off balance. The fastball sits in the low 90's and scrapes 95 at peak, but plays up with huge running action and extension. He works between a big, diving slider and a tighter cutter, while his above average changeup gives him a weapon against right handed hitters. There is no plus pitch in the arsenal and he'll especially need to sharpen up his breaking ball a bit, but he dots everything with plus command of all of his pitches, staying ahead of the count and in control of at bats. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that he stands 6'8". That makes the entire at bat that much more uncomfortable for opposing hitters, especially lefties who see his three quarters arm slot firing the ball from behind their backs. If Dzierwa can add a couple ticks of velocity and sharpen his breaking balls, he has mid-rotation starter upside. There is a ton to work with in this profile and Baltimore's pitching development will certainly have fun helping the lanky lefty reach his ceiling.

CBB-69: RHP JT Quinn, Georgia
Slot value: $1.22 million. Signing bonus: $1.15 million ($76,300 below slot value).
My rank: #129. MLB Pipeline: #127. Baseball America: #144.
While Josep Dzierwa was the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year, JT Quinn might have flown a bit more under the radar on the national scene as a swingman at Georgia, though he had local scouts pounding the table for him especially down the stretch. He put up some strong performances in May then dominated in his three starts in the Cape Cod League just before the draft (2.57 ERA, 25/2 K/BB in 14 IP). Standing 6'6", he's nearly as tall as the 6'8" Dzierwa, but that is where the similarities end. Quinn was a well-known prospect out of high school and could have gone in the top five rounds if he was signable, but he instead opted to attend Ole Miss. Splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen, he carried a 7.35 ERA over two seasons and transferred to Georgia, where he really put it together down the stretch as stated above. Quinn is a power arm with a mid 90's fastball that reaches as high as 98 in short stints, while his power slider as been refined into a true plus breaking ball. He's much more consistent with the slider than he is with his curveball, which he struggles to get down in the zone. Unlike most college pitchers who at least show a changeup from time to time, Quinn works entirely without one. He is extremely physical with an over the top delivery and ultra high release point, putting angry downhill plane on his pitches. The Tampa native has been honing his command as of late and walked just two of his 58 opponents on the Cape, lending a real possibility that he could start. He'll have to add a changeup and stay healthy in order to do so, but it looks much more likely than it did a few months ago. If not, he has shown he can be nasty as a fastball/slider power arm out of the bullpen.

3-93: OF RJ Austin, Vanderbilt
Slot value: $826,400. Signing bonus: $823,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #104. MLB Pipeline: #112. Baseball America: #189.
Two years ago, the Orioles picked up a speedy, high baseball IQ outfielder out of Vanderbilt in Enrique Bradfield. They're doing it again with RJ Austin. Like Ike Irish and JT Quinn, he was a highly regarded prep prospect that could have gone in the top couple of rounds, and over the past three seasons he has started 181 of Vanderbilt's 184 games. While he went through an abysmal slump in 2025, at one point going hitless for nearly three straight weeks (0-27 in 8 games) and finishing with unremarkable numbers, his under the hood numbers were better than the surface stat line and he remains an extremely fun player to watch go to work. Austin makes a ton of contact both inside the strike zone and out of it, slashing at the baseball with a quick right handed swing that is most certainly not geared for power. Still, he packs a lot of twitch into his 5'11" frame and produces solid exit velocities, lending hope that he could tap into some fringy power if he starts to elevate the ball more. For now, that's not his game and he actually dropped from seven home runs as a freshman to five as a sophomore to just two as a junior in 2025. Despite Austin's struggles at times in 2025, the Orioles remain convinced his combination of bat to ball, all fields approach, and sneaky pop could help him flirt with .300 batting averages in the majors. The Atlanta native did show well over two summers on the Cape (.325/.404/.433 in 44 games) and has shown the ability to make adjustments in the past. He is also a plus runner and knows his way around the outfield, giving him a shot to play center field or at least fill in there from time to time. However, his below average arm will push him to left field if he's pushed out of center. Austin is a high energy ballplayer that constantly finds ways to help his teams win games and will make for a great fourth outfielder at his median projection, with the potential for more if he can tap a little bit of power and stick in center field.

4-124: SS Colin Yeaman, UC Irvine
Slot value: $605,300. Signing bonus: $602,800 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #71. MLB Pipeline: #97. Baseball America: #172.
This has a chance to be a really sneaky good pick. Back east, we don't always think too much about the smaller West Coast programs, but those California mid-majors can really play some sound baseball and Colin Yeaman exemplifies that. He spent two years at the College of the Canyons in his hometown of Santa Clarita, where he torched California JuCo pitching to the tune of a .417/.510/.729 line. JuCo pitchers were thrilled when he transferred across the Los Angeles area down to UC Irvine, where at one point he put together back to back hitting streaks of 13 and 21 games. He is extraordinarily patient at the plate to the point where he can get too passive at times and allow pitchers to get ahead of him in the count, but that does mean that he almost never chases and won't get himself out. He has a very simple right handed swing with a slight uppercut that helps him not only make consistent contact, but make the most of his fringy raw power. You often hear about hitters with plus raw power that plays down in games, but he's the opposite with his fringy raw playing up into average game power. When Yeaman makes contact, you know that it will be his pitch and his A swing. Meanwhile, he possesses fringy supplemental tools that may push him to second base in the long run, where his bat could still carry him to an everyday role. The Orioles drafted him as a shortstop and he may have just enough arm strength and range to make it work, at least in a utility role. He projects for 15 home runs per season and high on-base percentages at his ceiling.

5-154: SS Jaiden Lo Re, Corona Del Sol HS [AZ]
Slot value: $452,000. Signing bonus: $562,500 ($110,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #413.
Going off the beaten path a bit, the Orioles grabbed Jaiden Lo Re off a loaded Corona Del Sol High School program that also included the more famous Brett Crossland, who spurned draft offers and is on his way to play for the Texas Longhorns. Lo Re is yet another ultra high contact type that slashed his way through strong Phoenix-area pitching with a linear right handed swing that gets on plane early and stays long through the zone. He easily sprays line drives around to all parts of the park, but at a smaller 5'11" and without much tendency to lift the ball, he has below average power. Unless the Orioles change up his approach in a major way, he likely does not reach double digit home runs, but he's yet another candidate to hit .300 in the majors. Lo Re plays shortstop now and has enough defensive explosiveness to profile there in a part time role, though like Colin Yeaman he might be stretched there if he has to play there every day. He could end up at second or third base, where his average defensive tools fit better. Like other players in this Orioles class, he has been described as a high energy player on both sides of the ball. His signing bonus was nearly a round above his slot value and he'll come to Baltimore rather than play for BYU.

6-184: LHP Caden Hunter, Southern California
Slot value: $347,100. Signing bonus: $344,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #149. Baseball America: #261.
The Orioles are getting a development project in Caden Hunter. Like Colin Yeaman, he spent two years in the California JuCo ranks, though his Sierra JC in Northern California never played Yeaman's College of the Canyons down in SoCal. He transferred to Southern Cal in 2025, where he pitched to inconsistent results but piqued teams' interests with a velocity bump late in the season. Typically sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and topping out around 95 early in games, Hunter hit 97 in some shorter outings leading up to the draft. The fastball plays up further with high riding action from a three quarters, crossfire slot. Hunter has a below average slider that backs up on him more often than it bites, while his average changeup gives him a somewhat reliable secondary offering. With some extra movement in his delivery including some rocking back and forth and a crouch as he delivers across his body, his command can get inconsistent and he walked 11.4% of his opponents in 2025. Still, there are reasons to like this pick. The 6'2" lefty is plenty physical and has the build to handle a full season in a major league rotation, and he moves well on the mound despite the average stuff. If the Orioles can streamline his delivery a little bit and find a breaking ball for him, he has a very decent shot to become a left handed back-end starting pitcher. If not, he likely winds up as a fastball/changeup long reliever.

Sunday, August 24, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers followed their usual formula in 2025, going at or under slot with each of their first five picks and eleven of their first twelve, heading into the back half of the draft with significant cash to burn. They ended up spending almost all of it, but fell a little short of their full allotment and left five players unsigned, the most of any team. In fact, not a single draftee in the last ten rounds signed for at or below the allotted $150,000 – all five signed for anywhere between $225,000 and $757,500. The Brewers drafted twelve high schoolers in all, more than any other team, and signed nine of them, also the most of any team. It's a very boom or bust draft although they played it safe with a polished bat (Andrew Fischer) and a polished arm (JD Thompson) as two of their first three picks. With four of the first 68 picks, they also had more room to work than most teams.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-20: 3B Andrew Fischer, Tennessee
Slot value: $4.27 million. Signing bonus: $3.5 million ($768,100 below slot value).
My rank: #28. MLB Pipeline: #29. Baseball America: #28.
Milwaukee saved over three quarters of a million dollars with this pick (giving Fischer the value of the #26 pick), but that doesn't mean they aren't starting things with a bang. Andrew Fischer has one of the very best bats in this entire class and was one of the most visible hitters in college baseball this year as the centerpiece to Tennessee's always-potent lineup. A native of the Jersey Shore, he began his career at Duke where he was one of the Blue Devils' better hitters as a freshman, then transferred to Ole Miss and improved despite stepping up to face even better competition in the SEC. Not content with Oxford, he transferred a second time alongside Liam Doyle to Tennessee, where he took yet another step forward with the bat slashing .341/.497/.760 with 25 home runs in 65 games. Fischer has above average raw power, but he maximizes every ounce of it for plus power in games as he is elite at elevating the baseball with authority. His uppercut left handed swing is regularly on time and he makes his best contact up in the air. An aggressive hitter when he began at Duke, he started to rein in his approach at Ole Miss and by 2025 he was never, ever chasing, running an elite 21.6% walk rate to push his on-base percentage near .500. That combination of power, launch angle, and patience to get the right pitch to drive helps him score very well on team models. If there is one drawback in his offensive profile it is his pure bat to ball, as he swings and misses in the zone just a little more than you'd like to see from a first round bat. Pro pitchers will attack him in the zone, but they'll be doing so at their peril as he has the potential for 25-30 home runs per season with high, walk-driven on-base percentages in the bigs. His bat is well ahead of his glove, where he'll have to work hard to provide value. He's a below average runner and his range is a bit stretched at third base, though he does have enough arm strength to make it work. While he played a lot of third base at his first two schools, he played mostly first base at his third school. He could also end up in an outfield corner. Regardless, his bat is loud and the Brewers are drafting him to stick in the middle of their order. Fischer has a loud personality and was simultaneously one of the most beloved players in Knoxville and one of the most hated players in the rest of the SEC. Mixing New Jersey and the Deep South was always going to be interesting.

1C-32: SS Brady Ebel, Corona HS [CA]
Slot value: $2.97 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($220,900 below slot value).
My rank: #73. MLB Pipeline: #64. Baseball America: #42.
At most high schools, getting drafted 32nd overall would make you the highest drafted player in a generation, if not in school history. For Brady Ebel, though, it only meant he was the third player drafted off his team in the same draft, following Pirates #6 pick Seth Hernandez and White Sox #10 pick Billy Carlson. The son of Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, Brady began his career at Etiwanda High School but transferred to powerhouse Corona High School after two years. Ebel has long been a well-known name in this class and has had first round buzz for years. His stock started to fade just a bit over the last calendar year and most had second round grades on him, but the Brewers remained sold and gave him a slight under slot bonus to step away from an LSU commitment. Despite being one of the younger players in the class and not turning 18 until after the draft, he brings a very polished game befitting of the son of a major league coach. At the plate, he begins with a bit of a bat wrap but negates it with a quick trigger and a direct bat path, helping him make lots of contact even against older, high level pitching. His power is below average for now, but with a projectable 6'3" frame, he looks like he could grow into at least average power in time. Meanwhile, while the Southern California product is unremarkable as a runner, he brings fluid actions to the shortstop position as well as an above average arm that could help him stick at the highly sought after position. If he gets pushed off by a more explosive defender, he should fit well as an above average third baseman. The key to Ebel's development will be his power development, which will make the difference between a contact-oriented utility infielder and a big league regular who could knock 15-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages at his peak.

2-59: LHP JD Thompson, Vanderbilt
Slot value: $1.56 million. Signing bonus: $1.56 million.
My rank: #48. MLB Pipeline: #66. Baseball America: #61.
I like JD Thompson, and I think he is a tremendous fit for the Brewers' system. He gradually worked his way into a larger and larger role on Vanderbilt's pitching staff, culminating in a 2025 in which he served as the program's ace, put up six double digit strikeout games, and finished tied for seventh in NCAA Division I with 122 strikeouts. He's more of a polished arm than a power pitcher, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and only topping out around 95. The pitch plays up with riding action from a lower slot, coming in with relatively flat plane through the zone. He throws both a slider and a curveball, with the former dipping in under bats with nice, late action and the latter showing bigger, two-plane break to dive across the plate. He also shows a solid changeup, making for a big league ready four pitch mix. Everything plays up because Thompson creates nice angle with his crossfire delivery, giving his stuff even more of that two-plane effect. The East Texas native shows above average command of all of his pitches, filling up the zone by repeating his delivery consistently. Lacking a plus pitch, it is not the most exciting profile and his strikeout rate will likely drop in pro ball, but the Brewers love his well rounded profile and they have had plenty of success with this profile in the past. He projects as a #3 or #4 starting pitcher who could move quickly and be in the big leagues sooner rather than later.

2C-68: LHP Frank Cairone, Delsea Regional HS [NJ]
Slot value: $1.25 million. Signing bonus: $1.1 million ($156,900 below slot value).
My rank: #103. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #96.
Frank Cairone is a bit of a sleeper and a sneaky good pick for the Brewers here, who got him slightly below slot value to keep him from attending Coastal Carolina. Like JD Thompson, he will fit very well into this Brewers player development system. Cairone sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 96 at peak early in starts but settling closer to 90 at times. The pitch plays up further due to excellent riding life and extension, and a little more velocity could make it a plus pitch. He has long been able to spin the ball, but he's now starting to separate out his slider and curveball into distinct, potentially above average pitches. His changeup is behind as a fourth pitch, which is not uncommon for high school arms. The 6'2" lefty looks physical and repeats his delivery well, helping him fill up the strike zone well for a young arm and project for at least average command. Additionally, Cairone is extremely young for the class, not turning 18 until two months after the draft and really the age of an older 2026 graduate. There is a ton of upside here as a potential mid rotation starter and I believe he is not as far away from that ceiling as you might think.

3-94: RHP Jacob Morrison, Coastal Carolina
Slot value: $813,600. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($116,100 below slot value).
My rank: #168. MLB Pipeline: #173. Baseball America: #187.
Jacob Morrison's rise to stardom is extremely impressive. He joined the Coastal Carolina rotation as a true freshman in 2023, but was hit hard with a .304 opponents' batting average and a 6.55 ERA over thirteen starts. After missing all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery, he stepped back into the rotation in 2025 and beat all expectations by a country mile, going 12-1 with a 2.42 ERA and a 104/23 strikeout to walk ratio as he led the Chanticleers to the College World Series Finals and took home is own Sun Belt Pitcher of the Year award. Listed at a towering 6'8", 245 pounds, Morrison is the quintessential college ace. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at peak, coming in with downhill plane and some life from an extremely high slot. He throws both a curveball and a slider that get nice glove side dip and sneak under bats, while his changeup is a firm fourth pitch. Morrison has a relatively stiff delivery but repeats it well and shows above average command, especially of his fastball, helping him walk just 5.4% of his opponents in 2025. Besides the Tommy John surgery, which can bite any pitcher, he has proven very durable and his 107.2 innings in 2025 were the third most in Division I. The kid out of the Flint, Michigan area likely does not have the stuff to miss large numbers of bats in pro ball, so he'll need to rely on his command to stay ahead in counts and keep hitters guessing. If the Brewers can help one or two of his secondaries take a step forward, that would be a major factor in getting him to his ceiling as a #4 or #5 starter. As of now, I most likely see him as a serviceable long reliever.

4-125: RHP Joshua Flores, Lake Central HS [IN]
Slot value: $599,600. Signing bonus: $722,500 ($122,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #243. Baseball America: #392.
After going at or slightly under slot value with each of their first five picks, the Brewers began to cash in on their savings by going a bit above slot to lure Joshua Flores away from a Kentucky commitment. While his ranking on public boards might not give it away, he has one of the highest octane arms you'll find outside of the top couple of rounds and is a markedly different prospect than the pitchers Milwaukee targeted so far in this class. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out at 97 with run and ride to make it a plus pitch. His best pitch, however, is a nasty curveball with wicked snap that Northwest Indiana high school hitters simply couldn't handle. He can turn it over into a decent slider, while his changeup is behind. Flores has a long arm action, going almost full extension straight back before firing to the plate, leading to well below average command and getting him into walk trouble even with those same high school hitters his stuff could easily overwhelm. The Brewers will need to work hard to both streamline his delivery and help him harness his electric stuff, which could make him a high end starting pitcher at the big league level. Given how far he has to go to reach that ceiling, there is a good chance he ends up a reliever where he focuses on the fastball/curveball combination and doesn't need to hold his command more than an inning or two. He's also young for the class, having only turned 18 a month before the draft.

6-185: SS Daniel Dickinson, Louisiana State
Slot value: $344,400. Signing bonus: $325,000 ($19,000 below slot value).
My rank: #122. MLB Pipeline: #80. Baseball America: #73.
This is a nice value get for the Brewers, as Daniel Dickinson was considered a top two rounds prospect at times and still got third round grades from many publications at draft time, though he was a fourth rounder on my board. Lightly scouted out of high school, he began his career at Utah Valley University and simply bashed his way through the WAC, earning first team all-conference honors as both a freshman and a sophomore. He transferred to LSU for his junior season and had no issues catching up to SEC pitching, though questions about the overall impact in his profile pushed him back a couple rounds. Dickinson is a high contact bat that battles through his at bats, which aided his transition from the WAC to the SEC and which will aid his transition into pro ball. The power, meanwhile, is more of a question mark. He's listed at an average 6', 180 pounds, and ran below average exit velocity numbers despite smacking 39 home runs in three years of college ball. His power plays with metal bats when he can yank it to the pull side, though he hit just .205/.350/.253 with wood bats in the Cape Cod League last summer, showing his same great plate discipline but struggling to drive the ball into gaps and over heads. Drafted as a shortstop, he has the physical tools to profile there if needed but probably fits better at second base, where he could be solid average or even above average. The Eastern Washington native is a baseball rat who will maximize his skill set and best profiles as a contact hitting utility infielder in Milwaukee.

11-335: SS CJ Hughes, Junipero Serra HS [CA]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($550,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #215.
As is tradition in Milwaukee, the Brewers began to unload their excess bonus pool space by dumping early fourth round money into eleventh rounder CJ Hughes, precluding him from attending UC Santa Barbara. Hughes had a strong senior season at JSerra High School in Southern California, a powerhouse program producing more and more talent headlined by 2017 first overall pick Royce Lewis. He is a glove first shortstop with a vacuum-like glove at the premium position, showing natural soft hands and enough arm strength to be an above average defender there. A switch hitter, he has impressed evaluators with a strong approach and solid bat to ball, giving him a shot at an average or better hit tool. There's not much power in the profile, clocking in at a listed 155 pounds, and he'll likely never have average power no matter how much he develops. Still, there is some twitch in his swings and he should have enough to keep pitchers honest with something like 5-10 home runs per season and plenty of doubles and triples. With average speed, it's probably a utility infield profile with a chance to develop into an every day shortstop if he can tack on a little bit of strength. Age works in his favor as he won't turn 18 until September, making him one of the youngest players in the entire draft.

19-575: RHP Chase Bentley, IMG Academy [FL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus $757,500 ($607,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
There is not a ton of public information out there on Chase Bentley, who signed for a large, late-third round caliber bonus rather than attend Texas A&M. He's a Northern California native who crossed the country with Rays supplemental pick Dean Moss to attend IMG Academy in Florida. His fastball sits around 90 with tons of running action to miss barrels, while he has really sharpened up his slider into a second out pitch. There is a curveball and a changeup in the mix as well, though he can drop his arm to get more fade on the latter, making for a well-rounded arsenal which he has shown solid feel to command. Listed at 6'3", 215 pounds, he's very physical for a high schooler and that is made even more impressive by the fact that he is relatively young for a high school pick, giving the Brewers high confidence he can develop into a mid-rotation starting pitcher. They'll loosen up his delivery a little bit to unlock more velocity and continue honing in those breaking pitches. While he wasn't much of a known commodity before the draft, the Brewers did their diligence here and think he would have developed into a monster in College Station.

20-605: RHP Ma'Kale Holden, Thompson HS [AL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $410,000 ($260,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #163.
Milwaukee finished things off with a second straight physical right handed pitcher here, paying Ma'Kale Holden late fifth round money to head north rather than stay home at Alabama for school. He has hit 97 with his fastball but more commonly lives closer to 90 at present, while showing excellent feel for spin on his two breaking balls. There is a changeup in the mix as well, giving him a power arm with four pitches. For now, the mechanics are relatively raw and both his fastball velocity and his secondary stuff can be inconsistent, but at his peak stuff he looks like he belongs in the top couple of rounds. With his inconsistent mechanics, he also has trouble holding his command together for longer periods of time, making for an all around relatively raw prospect. Milwaukee will take its time with Holden to streamline things, with pro coaching hopefully unlocking effectiveness at his peak stuff. The 6'1" righty carries reliever risk, where he could sit closer to the mid 90's and pull the string on his nasty breaking stuff.

Thursday, August 21, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Houston Astros

Full list of draftees

It may not seem like much, but #21 is the earliest the Astros have picked since drafting UNC righty J.B. Bukauskas with the #15 pick way back in 2017. Beginning with first rounder Xavier Neyens, they went after a power-heavy class that could bring some fireworks to Daikin Park in the future. Lacking a second round pick after signing Christian Walker this offseason, they did lack draft capital and Neyens represented their only seven figure bonus. In all, it's an interesting class with a lot of outlier traits that the Astros will try work off, making for a very Astros-like draft.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-21: SS Xavier Neyens, Mount Vernon HS [WA]
Slot value: $4.12 million. Signing bonus: $4.12 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #19. MLB Pipeline: #25. Baseball America: #19.
With their earliest pick in nearly a decade, the Astros brought on a hitter who has a chance for the biggest bat in the class when all is said and done. Xavier Neyens has long been a famous name on the showcase circuit and at times rivaled Ethan Holliday at the top of the prep class in early projections, and while he wound up more of a mid to back of the first round prospect by the time the draft rolled around, he remains one of the most dangerous teenage hitters in the country. Already ultra physical at 6'4", 210 pounds, he's going to get even bigger as he continues to pack on strength and he's a great athlete for his size, too. Of course, he stands out for his plus-plus raw power that he taps effortlessly in games with a violent, leveraged, and controlled left handed swing that puts the ball in the air consistently. He flat out refuses to chase even quality breaking balls and velocity, forcing pitchers to attack him in the zone at their own risk. There were times where he got too passive and let hittable pitches go by, which at times got him in trouble in deeper counts when quality arms could make quality pitches and get him out. There are also some questions about pure bat to ball, as he swung and missed in the strike zone more than evaluators would like to see for a first round prospect. Still, because he's not chasing, he's on base a ton to complement his power. The Astros drafted Neyens as a shortstop, though that's a bit of wishful thinking. He's more athletic than most players his size, but third base seems like the best case scenario with just decent lateral quickness. He's pretty smooth on the balls he does get to and has a plus arm that helped him run his fastball up to 96 on the mound, so as long as he maintains his shape, he should stick on the left side of the infield. If not, the Washington native has plenty of bat to profile at first base. There are serious parallels to Nick Kurtz in this profile, as a big bodied, athletic, slugging left handed bat with a corner defensive profile, though Neyens could stick at third while Kurtz plays a mean first base. He had been committed to Oregon State.

3-95: OF Ethan Frey, Louisiana State
Slot value: $803,900. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($193,600 above slot value).
My rank: #158. MLB Pipeline: #119. Baseball America: #317.
Ethan Frey is a semi-local kid who grew up less than three hours from Houston in the tiny town of Rosepine, Louisiana, just fifteen miles off the Texas border where his parents work at nearby Fort Polk. He's a bit of a polarizing prospect for which opinions vary widely – Baseball America has him outside of the top 300, MLB Pipeline is the highest on him at #119, and the Astros not only drafted him inside the top 100 but for an over slot bonus befitting of the #81 overall pick. You see that often with high school players, but those discrepancies are less common at the college level. Frey certainly brings with him a big time profile. He played sparingly over his first two seasons at LSU, batting just .237/.307/.289 with zero home runs in 53 games, mostly off the bench, but exploded to hit .331/.420/641 with thirteen home runs as a junior in 2025. Listed at an imposing 6'6", 225 pounds, the ball jumps off his bat for plus raw power that he finally began tapping in 2025. He's a patient hitter that runs into some swing and miss in the zone (sound familiar?) but held his own against high level pitching in the SEC, giving confidence that the bat will translate to pro ball. Frey played quarterback at Rosepine High School back in the Piney Woods and moves very well for his size, with some getting above average reads on his speed. He did miss time with labrum surgery and it's unknown how much of his previously strong arm will return. He was buried on the LSU defensive depth chart with big time names like Derek Curiel, Chris Stanfield, Jake Brown, and Josh Pearson locking down most of the time in the Tigers outfield, leaving Frey in a DH role for much of the season. With his speed, there are some optimistic evaluators who see Frey as a center fielder, and those who believe his arm strength will come back could see him as an above average right fielder as well. Given the nearly million dollar bonus they handed him, I would think the Astros are fully bought into the physical side and see Frey as a fully healthy, high level athlete in a 6'6" package.

4-126: IF Nick Monistere, Southern Miss
Slot value: $594,500. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($197,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #425.
Sticking in the Gulf Coast region, the Astros hopped over to Southern Miss to grab Nick Monistere for a below slot bonus that almost perfectly pays for Ethan Frey's over slot payday. Initially a two-way player when he came to Southern Miss, he gave up pitching after nine innings for the Golden Eagles as a freshman in 2023 and fully broke out with a huge 2025 season that netted him Sun Belt Player of the Year honors. Though he is not huge at a listed 6', 190 pounds, much smaller than the two draftees ahead of him here, he was able to turn around 21 home runs in 63 games in 2025 with a pull-oriented, leveraged swing and above average raw power. He really extends well through the baseball and should get to all of his raw power in games in pro ball, giving him the shot to hit 15-20 home runs per season and perhaps pop for more if he reaches his absolute ceiling. Before doing that, he will need to clean up the hit tool a little bit with an aggressive approach and average bat to ball skills, with some questions against spin that will need to be addressed against better pitching. Sun Belt pitching is nothing to sneeze at and he performed well there, hitting .323 with a .410 on-base percentage and limiting his strikeout rate to a reasonable 17.7%, but the pitching will get more and more relentless as he moves up the latter. Controlling the strike zone and recognizing spin a bit better will go a long way. Defensively, Monistere could end up at any number of positions. He bounced around the diamond over his first two seasons in Hattiesburg before settling in as the every day second baseman in 2025, giving him many options going forward. He's probably not polished or quick enough to play shortstop, but he does have a strong arm and can get around a little bit, making both second and third base an option. He has also seen time in the outfield, but Houston will hope the Jackson-area native can stick in the dirt.

5-156: RHP Nick Potter, Wichita State
Slot value: $443,100. Signing bonus: $336,600 ($106,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Nick Potter brings as big a right arm as you're going to find outside the top couple rounds. He began his career at Crowder JC, then after two years transferred to Wichita State. Pitching exclusively out of the bullpen, he was a shutdown arm for the Shockers highlighted by some excellent outings down the stretch. He's a fireballer through and through. Potter's fastball sits mid to upper 90's and touches triple digits at peak, coming in with explosive life to miss bats at rates rarely seen from a fastball. He primarily pitches off the heater, challenging hitters in the zone and just blowing it by them down the middle or wherever it ends up. The Kansas City-area native also snaps off a slider with some promise, with his best flashing above average in the upper 80's with hard biting action, though it can be inconsistent and flatten out regularly. Still, even his worst breaking balls are upper 80's cement mixers against hitters gearing up for triple digits so it's not like they're just floating in there. Potter does have below average command, which combined with the two pitch mix likely precludes him from ever starting in pro ball. The 6'4" righty is ultra athletic on the mound with excellent extension, making his fastball play up further and giving him tremendous ceiling. There are closers out there like Mason Miller and Jhoan Duran who admittedly have better stuff and command, but if you were drawing up those profiles at this stage of their career, Potter's not too far off. If he can get more consistent with his slider and sharpen up his command a little bit, closer upside is not out of the question, especially if the Astros can mold this ball of clay further.

7-216: C Jase Mitchell, Cape Henlopen HS [DE]
Slot value: $267,700. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($529,800 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #246. Baseball America: #467.
The Eastern Shore doesn't produce a ton of talent, with the only recent highlights perhaps being former Pirates starter Ian Snell and reliever Tyler Webb until brothers Zack and Jake Gelof turned standout careers at Delaware's Cape Henlopen High School into standout UVA careers into both being 60th overall picks. Zack is now with the A's and Jase Mitchell is looking to follow his footsteps from Cape Henlopen to the bigs (I too played a few games at Cape Henlopen as a kid but alas here I am writing about it, not in the bigs). Mitchell brings the kind of left handed power you don't see often from catchers. He has a big 6'3" frame with long arms and legs, oozing projection as he looks to add thirty-plus pounds in pro ball. He already hits for plus power with a violent left handed swing producing tremendous force, sending baseballs impressive distances when he connects. He is certainly hit over power, and that is what kept him lower down on most prospect boards. There are questions both about his approach and his pure bat to ball, with long levers and a lack of facing top pitching in a place they call Slower Lower Delaware. Meanwhile, there are questions about his defense as well. Like most lanky catchers, he's still learning to fold up back there while still remaining spry enough to pounce on balls in the dirt. A big arm does help his case to remain a catcher. Between the hit tool and the defense, this is certainly a boom or bust profile, but the Astros clearly believe in at least one if not both and see a future power hitting catcher. Previously committed to Kentucky, he instead signed for top-100 money here in the seventh round.

8-246: 2B Kyle Walker, Arizona State
Slot value: $219,800. Signing bonus: $152,500 ($67,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Kyle Walker gives the Astros a second Louisianan. A native of Harvey, a southern suburb of New Orleans, he attended Archbishop Rummel High School in Metairie and began his college career at Louisiana Tech. After spending his freshman season on the bench, he transferred just ten minutes down the road to Grambling State and immediately established himself as one of the best hitters in the SWAC, earning a second opportunity to transfer to Arizona State two years later. Unfazed by the jump in competition, he still hit .352/.449/.546 with more walks than strikeouts as the Sun Devils' every day second baseman. Undersized at 5'9", he packs a punch in the box with a quick, adjustable right handed swing that produces hard contact around the field and enough pop to turn on home runs to the pull side. He controls the strike zone extremely well, fouling off tough pitches and refusing to strike out. Defensively, Walker shows plus speed and can get to balls all around his position, though he lacks the big arm for the left side of the infield and will fit at second base going forward. If he can continue tapping some pop with wood bats, there is upside here as a part time infielder, though his utility infield value is hurt by the lack of arm strength. Walker was a senior sign who will turn 23 over the offseason.

12-366: OF Elijah Farley, Navarro HS [TX]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
It's not often that a high school player signs for $150,000, but it appears the Astros and Elijah Farley were a tremendous fit and Farley will play for Houston rather follow through on his commitment to Hill JC. The only Texan in this Astros draft class, Farley grew up in the suburbs of New Braunfels and spent the first three years of high school career at Canyon High School. He then transferred to Navarro High School between New Braunfels and Seguin for his senior year. Farley brings huge upside, but just as much risk. He's a lanky 6'4" with excellent twitch and athleticism, enabling him to shine on the basketball court as well as the mound. He'll be developed as a hitter, where he brings above average power from the left side that could easily get to plus with added strength. There is big bat speed that will play as he streamlines that swing, giving the Astros plenty to develop. The hit tool is more unproven, as he hasn't seen a lot of top pitching and wasn't active on the main showcase circuit last summer. The jump from Central Texas high school ball to the pros will be steep, so he will likely move slowly as the Astros turn him into a pro ballplayer. With plus speed and a plus arm that has been up to 94 on the mound, he has a chance to be a plus defensive outfielder with further refinement. There is huge upside here that will take a lot of work and time to bring out, and Farley is old for a graduating senior having turned 19 back in May.

Friday, August 15, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

Full list of draftees

The Braves looked at their pick values and decided to completely disregard them. First rounder Tate Southisene got nearly a million and a half below slot value, second rounder Alex Lodise was below as well, third rounder Cody Miller wound up with a seventh round bonus, fourth rounder Briggs McKenzie got the highest bonus of them all, and fifth rounder Conor Essenburg got almost as much as Lodise. In rounds eight, nine, and ten, the Braves handed a paltry $10,000 combined to three senior signs. While the Braves broke a streak of five straight drafts beginning with a pitcher (and eight out of nine) by going position player this year, their highest bonus did still go to a pitcher. After starting with three straight shortstops, it was a pitching-heavy class that included selecting twelve arms in a fourteen pick stretch from rounds six through nineteen. They also scooped up plenty of semi-local talent from around the South including three North Carolinians, two South Carolinians, two Alabamans, a Mississippian, and a North Floridian, albeit no Georgians.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-22: SS Tate Southisene, Basic HS [NV]
Slot value: $3.98 million. Signing bonus: $2.62 million ($1.36 million below slot value).
My rank: #59. MLB Pipeline: #39. Baseball America: #43.
While he didn't earn the highest bonus in the Braves' class, Tate Southisene became the Braves' first round position player since Shea Langeliers and Braden Shewmake in 2019. Southisene signed for a massive haircut, taking roughly the slot value of the #37 pick to sign here at #22 rather than attend Southern California. The younger brother of last year's Cubs' fourth rounder Ty Southisene, Tate is just a bit bigger and more physical than his 5'9" brother. It's a relatively noisy operation at the plate with more pre-pitch movement in the hands than you'd like to see, but he makes up for it with a very accurate barrel that has played up against top competition both on the showcase circuit and against high school pitching in Las Vegas. On top of the hand-eye coordination, Southisene is a disciplined hitter comfortable against high octane stuff, making for a very pro-ready bat. If the Braves can iron out his hitch, he could be an above average or better hitter in time. While he's undersized at 5'11", he rotates and accelerates really well from the right side, creating great hip-shoulder separation to create average power. He'll face questions about whether he can continue to tap that power with wood bats, but the truth is the kid can hit and he can hit a lot. The offensive projection here is that of a 10-20 home run bat that can run high on-base percentages, which would be enough to start in virtually any lineup. He's an above average runner as well that has seen time all over the field and can end up at any number of positions. His above average arm plays up further due to its accuracy, and the Braves look like they'll trot him out as a shortstop to start. He'll need to work to stick there and could end up at third base or in the outfield, where his speed and arm could help him play all three positions at an above average clip. The whole operation reminds me somewhat of Mookie Betts, especially if he can quiet down his hands in the box with pro instruction. Of course I am not projecting him to win multiple MVP's, but it's never a bad thing when your game resembles one of the best in the world.

1-60: SS Alex Lodise, Florida State
Slot value: $1.52 million. Signing bonus: $1.3 million ($225,700 below slot).
My rank: #50. MLB Pipeline: #43. Baseball America: #26.
This is a bit later than many expected Alex Lodise to be drafted, especially given that he signed below slot value, with some of those highest on his talent projecting him in the back of the first round. Instead, Lodise fell to the Braves here near the back of the second round. A native of the Jacksonville area, his cousin Kyle grew up in Brunswick, Georgia and attended Georgia Tech before being drafted in the third round by the White Sox. Alex began his college career at North Florida, where he earned numerous accolades for a huge freshman season and transferred to Florida State after one year. After a good-not-great sophomore season, he exploded for a massive junior season in 2025 slashing .394/.462/.705 with 17 home runs and earned ACC Player of the Year honors alongside being named a consensus First Team All American. Impressively, Lodise did it while kind of just whacking at everything. With a very aggressive approach at the plate, he swung and swung hard at just about anything near the zone and it worked astonishingly well. He did strike out in 20% of his plate appearances, but he ran decent contact rates and hit .431 in conference play against some of the better pitching in the country. He has above average raw power, but tapped all of it in games with a leveraged, uppercut swing that helped him lift the ball to the pull side with consistency. While one would think that kind of approach is unsustainable in pro ball, he hit .431/.492/.836 with 12 home runs in 28 conference games as well as .295/.339/.410 in a smaller Cape Cod League sample, so it hasn't bitten him yet. He projects for 20+ home runs annually in pro ball if he can continue to get to that pull side power, though his on-base percentages could dip significantly depending on how his approach holds up. His glove will certainly help, with a nice combination of speed and arm strength that should play at shortstop so long as he continues to refine his glovework. If not, he'll fit well at second or third base and could be above average at either position, making a utility infielder floor very realistic should his bat falter.

3-96: SS Cody Miller, East Tennessee State
Slot value: $796,000. Signing bonus: $297,500 ($498,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
With a third straight money saver, the Braves gave Cody Miller early seventh round money to sign here in the third round. He's a plenty interesting talent though that brings more upside than the typical $300K collegiate pick. A three year starter at East Tennessee State, he has always been an on-base machine for the Buccaneers but hit just four home runs over his first two seasons, then exploded for 18 as a junior as he helped lead the school to its first forty win season since 1981. While Miller lacks a carrying tool, he does a lot of things well. His simple right handed swing helps him produce hard contact to all fields, with high barrel accuracy and an adjustable bat path that helps him get to balls all over the zone. Despite chasing at a high clip, he ran just a 12.3% strikeout rate and hit .331. Miller, like Alex Lodise, is aggressive and that could get him into trouble making the jump from the Southern Conference to pro ball, but he has handled better arms well in limited samples, including a .261/.333/.449 run through the Cape Cod League and home runs this season against Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Louisville. Undersized at 5'11" like Tate Southisene, he has done a better job turning on the ball this spring and has shown some sneaky power, likely enough for double digit home run totals at the big league level. The Long Island native is also a plus runner that stole 27 bases in 30 tries this spring, good for a 90% success rate, and he can get move around the infield well. The tools might be a touch stretched at shortstop, but he should be able to handle that role at least in a part time capacity at the big league level and has the ability to fill in at any infield position. It's probably a utility infielder profile here with a chance to hit his way into being a bottom of the lineup every day second baseman. He's young for a college junior, having turned 21 shortly before the draft.

4-127: LHP Briggs McKenzie, Corinth Holders HS [NC]
Slot value: $588,900. Signing bonus: $3 million ($2.41 million above slot value).
My rank: #72. MLB Pipeline: #69. Baseball America: #46.
The Braves' largest bonus went not to first round pick Tate Southisene, not to second rounder Alex Lodise, nor to third rounder Cody Miller, but to fourth rounder Briggs McKenzie, who signed for just over the slot value of the #32 overall pick rather than attend LSU. McKenzie generated massive buzz early this spring when he came out of the gate firing and while he didn't quite build off it, the Braves were sold and invested heavily. A product of Wendell, North Carolina, a small (but growing) town just east of Raleigh, he sits in the low 90's and tops out around 95 with carrying action at best but can also dip into the upper 80's at times. His plus curveball is a real separator with big two-plane tilt and plenty of finish, while his changeup is emerging as an average third offering. McKenzie sticks out most for his projection, with a lanky 6'2" frame that figures to get much, much stronger in time, which should help him hold his peak velocity better and move more consistently into the mid 90's in time. Given his slim stature, that conditioning will be key. McKenzie is an athlete on the mound and repeats his easy delivery well, showing average command for now with the chance to get to above average in time. He does have a tendency to change his arm slot on his offspeed stuff at times and will need to hone that in. There's a really nice combination of youth, projection, athleticism, present stuff (especially in the breaking ball), and even some polish that could lead to a ceiling as a high end left handed starter. He'll need to get much stronger, get more consistent with his secondary stuff, and hold his health and command to do so. Given the massive bonus he received from Atlanta, the Braves are all in.

4C-136: 2B Dixon Williams, East Carolina
Slot value: $539,700. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($42,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #197.
Dixon Williams gives the Braves a second straight pick out of eastern North Carolina. The Greenville native and DH Conley High School alum stayed home to attend East Carolina, where he played sparingly as a freshman but has been a force in the lineup over the last two seasons. The hometown hero will forever be remembered for his home run against now-Reds starter Chase Burns that propelled ECU to Super Regionals, and now he'll take his talents to Atlanta. He's a very balanced hitter that stands out for an advanced approach at the plate, helping him run a 16.8% walk rate and a .451 on-base percentage for the Pirates this year. The pure bat to ball is a tick behind, but he swings at the right pitches and looks poised to handle pro pitching relatively smoothly. While the raw power is fringy, Williams elevates the ball effectively to his pull side to produce average power in games, giving him a shot to produce 10-15 home runs annually in the big leagues, perhaps a tick more in his best years, with good on-base percentages at his ceiling. Though he's an above average runner that stole 22 bases in 25 tries (88% success rate) this year, he's not quite springy or explosive enough for shortstop and fits better at second or third base. He profiles as a bat-first utility infielder who could potentially handle shortstop in a pinch, or perhaps a left handed platoon bat.

5-157: OF Conor Essenburg, Lincoln-Way West HS [IL]
Slot value: $438,600. Signing bonus: $1.2 million ($758,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #221. Baseball America: #183.
This is a really fun one. Conor Essenburg has long impressed scouts with his two-way exploits, but with plenty of rawness on both sides of his game and a firm commitment to Kentucky, it seemed like we'd be talking about him more during the 2028 draft cycle. However, the Braves are sold on the upside and handed him roughly the slot value of the #70 overall pick to give up pitching and come swing the bat full time in their system. Essenburg has a bit of a noisy setup at the plate with a leg kick, hip turn, and a dip in his back side to get on plane and launch the ball in the air, but he does a good job of consistently getting to that position to do damage. It's above average power for now that could get to plus in time as he fills out his 6'2" frame, and he already has that penchant for driving the ball in the air. Hitters with those mechanics typically struggle with velocity up, and Essenburg certainly has his swing and miss questions, but he did homer off a 99 MPH fastball up and away against unsigned first round prospect and now Mississippi State Bulldog Jack Bauer back in April. The Chicago-area product is an aggressive hitter who will need to clean up his approach, as well as potentially his mechanics, in pro ball, but the Braves believe in the athlete and are confident that he'll hit. At peak, there is 20-25 home run upside with potentially solid batting averages. Essenburg probably fits in right field going forward, where his plus arm will be an asset. He also attracted considerable attention on the mound, where he was up to 94 with his fastball from the left side and good feel for spin. I'm personally a believer in former two-way prospects finding success in one or the other as they have showcased their athleticism and adaptability in the past in a way others haven't.

6-187: LHP Landon Beidelschies, Arkansas
Slot value: $338,900. Signing bonus: $297,500.
My rank: #146. MLB Pipeline: #208. Baseball America: #72.
In the sixth round, the Braves found an arm that has shown significant promise in the past and who many did not think would be available this late earlier in the season. Landon Beidelschies began his career at Ohio State, where he turned into one of their most reliable starting pitchers before transferring to Arkansas for his junior year. He started off strong with his new club with impressive starts against Washington State and Charlotte, pushing himself into top two rounds consideration, but struggled to a 6.56 ERA in SEC play and saw his role reduced on a loaded Arkansas pitching staff. It's still a really interesting product. The fastball sits low 90's but can touch as high as 98 in short stints, while his plus gyro slider dives under bats late to help him pile up strikeouts. His changeup has flashed but will need further refinement in pro ball. The 6'3", 230 pound lefty has a thick build and looks more strong than explosive on the mound, with a shorter arm action and somewhat stiff delivery. Still, he has pounded the strike zone in college and ran a career-best 7.6% walk rate and 65.4% strike rate in 2025 despite facing tougher competition in the SEC, pointing to at least average command going forward. Beidelschies' stuff played better in short stints and wasn't quite as crisp in longer starts in 2025, so if the Braves want him to remain a starter, they'll need to help him hold his stuff better multiple times through the lineup as well as bring that changeup along. If not, the Ohio native could sit mid 90's and pitch off his nasty slider in the bullpen.

12-367: RHP Jay Woolfolk, Virginia
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #253.
Jay Woolfolk has been known to Virginia evaluators for a long time. A star athlete at Benedictine College Prep, a catholic military high school outside of Richmond, Woolfolk got a lot done. He played on the basketball team, his least impressive sport. As a sophomore in 2019, he was named the Virginia Gatorade Player of the Year in baseball while leading the Cadets to a state championship. That fall, he won another state championship as the quarterback of the football team, then in 2021 he took home second state championship in baseball just before graduation. Heading to Charlottesville, he played both baseball and football and made it into nine games as a quarterback, though his future would be in baseball. He was named a freshman All American in 2022 in his first of two excellent seasons in the Cavaliers' bullpen, but had a rocky transition to starting in 2024 and went undrafted. Back starting in 2025, he dropped his ERA from 5.92 to 4.73, increased his strikeout rate from 23.1% to 26.9%, and slashed his walk rate from 13.8% to 8.6%. Woolfolk sits in the low 90's and touches 96 at peak, coming in with riding action from a high slot. He drops in a hard slider and a solid changeup, all coming from an uncomfortable cross body delivery that hides the ball well. The 6' righty was filling up the strike zone much better in 2025 and now has the look of a polished arm who has "been there before." He remains an excellent athlete and could be given the chance to start in the Braves organization, or they could let him get back to what he did best as a stone cold reliever early in his UVA career. Regardless, Woolfolk has become synonymous with UVA baseball over the past four years and exits with nearly 100 appearances and nearly 200 innings under his belt. As a bonus, he was teammates with Braves eighth rounder and fellow Richmond-area product Carter Lovasz on his high school travel team.

14-427: RHP Mathieu Curtis, Virginia Tech
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Mathieu Curtis brings the Braves a fun arm they can work with. A native of Fort Mill, South Carolina, where he attended Fort Mill High School just outside of Charlotte, he began his career at USC Upstate and held his own as a starting pitcher. Virginia Tech liked his arm talent and brought him in as a transfer, where he posted career-best 5.35 ERA and 26.9% strikeout rate in the bullpen. He's a low slot arm with a low 90's fastball that reaches the mid 90's at peak, staying off barrels with hard running life. His slider dives across the plate with two-plane action, and he does show a tertiary changeup. The 6'5" righty creates a tough look for hitters with his size and low three quarters arm slot, which will fit right into the bullpen in the Braves organization. His control is ahead of his command, so he can pound the strike zone but often lacks the ability to command to the various quadrants. Curtis is young for a college junior, not turning 21 until more than a month after the draft.

15-457: OF Dallas Macias, Oregon State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #175. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Dallas Macias technically finds himself on my draft, board, but that #175 ranking should be read as #175 out of 175 rather than as an endorsement that he is the 175th best prospect in the class. Macias didn't play much as a freshman in 2023, but hit his way into a starting role and was one of Oregon State's most reliable bats in 2024. Looking forward to an even bigger 2025, he instead never got off the ground and hit just .159/.305/.243 and fell out of his starting role less than halfway through the season. Still, there is a lot of talent here and the Braves aren't drafting a .159 hitter for nothing. Despite the poor numbers, he controlled the strike zone very well and walked (15.8%) more than he struck out (15.0%) and suffered from poor batted ball luck. Previously showing average raw power with eight home runs in 2024, he didn't square it up as often in 2025 and finished with just five total extra base hits, including only a pair of home runs. Macias has a fluid left handed swing and had previously tapped that power by elevating effectively to the pull side. The Braves believe the hitter he was in 2024 is still in there and will point to his always excellent plate discipline, which led to an excellent .375 on-base percentage and just a 6.9% strikeout rate in 19 games in the Cape Cod League last year, and say that he's a legitimate all-around bat. Additionally, he is a strong defender in the outfield who can handle center field and profiles as above average in an outfield corner. This is a fourth outfield reclamation project.

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Kansas City Royals

Full list of draftees

As with the Tigers in my previous article, holding the 23rd overall pick this year meant that this was the first time Kansas City had picked outside of the top 18 since 2016, when signing Ian Kennedy meant they had to wait until pick #67. However, with a PPI pick due to Bobby Witt Jr.'s Rookie of the Year Award and an extra CBB pick to boot, they were not short of draft capital and signed five different players to seven figure deals. They were able to do so while playing the bonus pool more or less straight up, only going significantly over or under slot a few times and giving no player fewer than six figures. As is their custom, this was a high school-heavy class with five preps drafted (four signed) including both of their first two picks, plus three more JuCo or JuCo-equivalent picks. It was also a pitching-heavy class after those first two picks. To me, while the pair of prep bats at the top in Sean Gamble and Josh Hammond have tremendous ceiling, most of the draft after that was focused on safety even if they did continue to hit the sub-21 years old demographic.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-23: OF Sean Gamble, IMG Academy [FL]
Slot value: $3.85 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($145,400 above slot value).
My rank: #29. MLB Pipeline: #27. Baseball America: #45.
Many players see their stock rise, fall, and everything in between during the eventful draft cycle, but Sean Gamble was somewhat unique in that he just kind of stuck where he was, steadily hanging out in the back of the first round for about a year now. Originally from Des Moines, from which Kauffman Stadium is the closest MLB ballpark, he had initially planned on attending Dowling Catholic HS in West Des Moines before changing gears and heading south to the famed IMG Academy in Florida. There, Gamble has blossomed into one of the most exciting teenage prospects in the country. He is an explosive mover in the box, generating big bat speed in a leveraged left handed swing that could produce plus power in time. While that all out swing has led to swing and miss concerns in the past, he has done a nice job toning it down just enough to reach pitches all over the zone and give evaluators confidence he'll get on base at a consistent clip in pro ball. As he continues his development, the Royals will look to maintain both his power and his ability to hit for average without sacrificing one for the other. It's really substantial offensive talent for a teenage kid that brings some of the best upside in the class. He has played all over the field in high school and while some evaluators wanted to give him a shot to play middle infield, he has always looked more natural in the outfield and it looks like that's where the Royals will stick him. With plus speed and arm strength, he could end up an above average center fielder when all is said and done. The ceiling here is that of a 25 home run hitter with solid on-base percentages and valuable outfield defense, all of which was worth spending $4 million to buy Gamble out of a Vanderbilt commitment. It's a really fun all-around prospect.

PPI-28: SS Josh Hammond, Wesleyan Christian HS [NC]
Slot value: $3.28 million. Signing bonus: $3.2 million ($84,700 below slot value).
My rank: #27. MLB Pipeline: #26. Baseball America: #38.
With their extra pick gained from Bobby Witt Jr.'s Rookie of the Year award, the Royals picked up a second explosive high school bat in Josh Hammond. The son of High Point head coach Joey Hammond, Josh was a two way star in high school who might have been a top fifty talent as a pitcher alone. He sat low to mid 90's, touching 97 with plenty of life and high spin rates, while his slider flashed plus and his changeup flashed above average. I really, really liked the explosive package on the mound, but over the past calendar year it became apparent that he viewed himself as a hitter and that's how it was going to be. No matter, because he's a potential All Star with the bat too who signed for over $3 million rather than attend Wake Forest. At the plate, he has a big right handed swing that produces plus power when he gets it up in the air, not too dissimilar to a right handed version of Sean Gamble. There have been some swing and miss questions throughout his prep career, but he has improved considerably in that regard and last summer rarely whiffed against top competition. The offensive projection is similar to Gamble's if a bit more power-heavy, with the potential for 25-30 or more home runs annually and solid on-base percentages. He's not quite as quick as Gamble in the field, but his cannon right arm will keep him on the right side of the infield where he could profile nicely at third base. The Royals drafted him as a shortstop and will likely trot him out there to start, and while he's twitchy out there, there are quicker defenders in the system. Hammond and Gamble both bring middle of the lineup offensive upside and could team with Witt Jr. and Jac Caglianone to form an exciting middle of the order.

2-61: RHP Michael Lombardi, Tulane
Slot value: $1.49 million. Signing bonus: $1.3 million ($189,200 below slot value).
My rank: #95. MLB Pipeline: #75. Baseball America: #101.
The Royals went aggressive here, taking a non-traditional profile in Michael Lombardi about a round or so before he was expected to come off the board. Like Hammond, Lombardi is a two-way player with a career .381 on-base percentage in three years at Tulane, having shown a high contact approach to earn a regular spot in the lineup. Micah Owings, the closest thing we've had to a two-way player in recent baseball memory before Shohei Ohtani came around, was also a Tulane alum, but Lombardi will only be pitching in the Royals' system. When he wasn't hitting, he served as the Green Wave closer and looked nearly untouchable at times in 2025, running an elite 43.5% strikeout rate and just a .143 batting average against. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 in short stints, playing up with massive riding action. He has a big hammer curveball that looks to be a plus pitch, giving him a true weapon against pro hitters, while his changeup is a fringy third pitch at this point. While Lombardi has missed a ton of bats, his command has been below average to this point as he can lose his release point on what is otherwise a fairly simple delivery. The 6'3" righty comes over the top but does a nice job extending to create a lower than average release height, making the carry on his fastball even more impressive, and has never fully committed to pitching full time. Doing so in the Royals' system should help bring his command along, as well as his changeup which he hasn't had time or necessity to focus on. While he has spent most of his time in New Orleans in the bullpen, there is starting upside here due to his athleticism, physicality, and again, the lack of exclusive attention to pitching. The Royals think they can clean up his command and get that changeup going, then work him towards his upside of a #3 starter. If not, the New York native has already shown very well in the bullpen and can dice hitters up with his fastball/curveball combination even if he's not precisely hitting his spots.

CBB-71: LHP Justin Lamkin, Texas A&M
Slot value: $1.16 million. Signing bonus: $1.16 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #121. MLB Pipeline: #111. Baseball America: #109.
This is another case of a pitcher going just a bit earlier than expected. Justin Lamkin has spent three years in the Texas A&M rotation racking up over 200 innings, but it wasn't until 2025 that he broke out to put up the best numbers of his career, highlighted by an incredible fifteen strikeout, zero walk, complete game shutout of Georgia (with one of the best offenses in college baseball) on May 16th. Lamkin doesn't have loud stuff, but he has grown as a pitcher during his time in College Station and has the look of a high probability back-end starting pitcher. The fastball sits low 90's and peaks at 95 with some running action, while his short, tight slider gives him an above average secondary and his changeup gives him a solid third pitch. Nothing will blow you away, but he does a very nice job of locating all three pitches to both sides of the plate and reduced his walk rate from 12.0% as a freshman to 7.6% as a sophomore to 5.4% this year as a junior. It's a very funky delivery with some stiffness and an awkward stabbing action in the back, but he has been extremely durable with 59.1, 65.2, and 84.1 innings in his three collegiate seasons and it hasn't impacted his command, either. The funk combined with his command makes it difficult for hitters to pick the ball up out of his hand, causing the whole arsenal to play up. Plenty physical at 6'4" and young for a college junior, the Royals see a lot of safety in this pick as a three pitch lefty with funk, command, and durability. He'll hope to join fellow Corpus Christi native Nick Loftin in Kansas City soon.

3-97: RHP Cameron Millar, Alhambra HS [CA]
Slot value: $788,500. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($709,000 above slot value).
My rank: #124. MLB Pipeline: #138. Baseball America: #121.
After more or less sticking around the slot value with their first four picks, the Royals blew the doors open by nearly doubling their third round slot value for Cameron Millar, giving him roughly the value of their own 61st overall pick to sign away from an Arizona commitment. He doesn't stick out in any one area, instead bringing a very well-rounded profile with a few differentiators to provide some upside. Millar's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with big riding life from an over the top slot, up a tick this spring. He gets nice dive on his two-plane slider to miss bats, though the Royals will help tighten it up a bit to miss even more bats, while his changeup really dives at the plate when he grips it right. With some refinement, he ends up with three above average or better pitches. The 6'2" righty is plenty physical already despite only having turned 18 in May, making him relatively young for a high school arm, and has a pretty clean delivery. The command can slip at times for now, which is normal for a high schooler, and that combination of physicality and delivery should help him get to average in time. It's a real mid-rotation starting pitcher profile that quietly went about its business in Northern California this spring, with a pretty straightforward development track to get there.

4-128: OF Nolan Sailors, Creighton
Slot value: $582,900. Signing bonus: $147,500 ($435,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Kansas City immediately recouped much of the money they spent on Cameron Millar by going with a semi-local kid in the fourth round. Nolan Sailors is an Omaha native who attended Ralston High School just south of the city, then stayed home to spend four years in the everyday lineup at Creighton. Impressively, he improved all three legs of his slash line each year in Omaha, working his way up from .247/.338/.343 as a freshman to .389/.485/.584 as a senior. A fan favorite with the Bluejays who played in over 200 games, he's a high contact type that likes to lace line drives around the field with a flat swing and excellent barrel feel. He's not much for elevating or turning on the ball, limiting his home run output to just 19 home runs over those four seasons, but he should hit for a good average in pro ball. Mostly a center fielder early in his time at Creighton, he has gradually spent more time in left field and played there almost exclusively as a senior. He's a strong defender that should be able to handle center at least in a part time role in pro ball with some speed. Sailors projects as a fourth outfielder who can fill in wherever needed and provide an advanced bat and leadership among his peers. Though he's a senior sign, he was young for the class and only turned 22 shortly before the draft.

5-158: RHP Aiden Jimenez, Arkansas
Slot value: $434,400. Signing bonus: $431,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Aiden Jimenez is a really talented arm who hasn't quite put it together yet, hence his being left off most major public draft boards. A Sacramento-area product, he began his career at Oregon State and showed promise as a freshman reliever in 2023, but missed the 2024 season with Tommy John surgery and transferred to Arkansas while he was rehabbing. Returning in a relief role on a loaded Razorbacks pitching staff, he posted a lower ERA and a higher strikeout rate than he had as a freshman. Jimenez sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touches 97 in short stints with riding action from a high slot. He works between a cutter and a slider to dip below bats and rounds out his arsenal with a changeup. To this point, he hasn't missed quite as many bats as you'd like to see, especially in a relief role, but has shown above average command to consistently stay ahead in counts. He had a couple of rocky outings near the end of the season, but righted the ship with three strong innings against UCLA in the College World Series. The 6'3" righty is physical and looks durable on the mound, and has been aside from his Tommy John surgery which these days has become all too standard anyways. If he can get more consistent innings under his belt, his stuff doesn't need to tick too far forward given his command and he could settle in as a back-end starter at ceiling or a long reliever as a more median outcome.

18-548: RHP Grayson Boles, St. Augustine HS [CA]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($350,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #155.
Just before the end of the draft, the Royals unloaded the last of their extra bonus pool money on Grayson Boles, buying him out of a Texas commitment for fifth round money. Boles is a big, physical right handed pitcher with the look of a workhorse starting pitcher, albeit with a ways to go to reach that ceiling. At his peak, he can sit in the low 90's and touch 95 with his fastball, though if often parks a bit below that. His high spin slider is his best weapon even if it's a bit inconsistent, showing nice late snap when he gets it right. He can really spin his curveball, too, though it has been supplanted by the slider as his primary breaking ball and projects fringy. There is feel for a changeup, though like most high school pitchers, it could really develop in any number of directions. The 6'5" righty has a pretty simple delivery that lacks significant effort, giving him a chance to significantly improve his command as he just learns to repeat it better under Kansas City's tutelage. The Royals are buying the size and feel for spin here and will look to see Boles as a #4 starter in a handful of seasons. The San Diego native was also the first player drafted out of St. Augustine High School in over fifty years, per Baseball America.

20-608: RHP Kamden Edge, Northern Oklahoma JC Tonkawa
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
To close out the draft, the Royals headed to the backfields of Oklahoma to find Kamden Edge, the latest in what's becoming a growing contingent of pro ballplayers out of the Oklahoma JuCo ranks. Edge grew up in Soper, Oklahoma, a tiny town of 225 people in the Red River Valley that also produced country music great Ray Wylie Hubbard. He crossed the state to attend NOC Tonkawa, a small JuCo about three and a half hours down I-35 from Kansas City and just about twenty miles south of the Kansas state line. Though his missed his freshman season due to injury, he impressed this spring with an electric right arm that the Royals will look to tame. The fastball sits low to mid 90's and can touch 97 with angry running life in short stints, while he snaps off a pretty sharp slider in the low 80's. Edge also shows the full arsenal with a cutter, curveball, and changeup. For now, he's very raw on the mound with a high effort, low slot delivery with a violent finish. He tends to drop his arm at times, especially on the breaking ball when he wants to snap it off, which can tip pitches and also leads to below average command. The 6'1" righty looks physical but likely profiles best in the bullpen, where he can cut down his arsenal a little bit and focus on blowing the ball by hitters. Kansas City loves the stuff and thinks they can develop him into a legitimate bullpen weapon with a delivery that will make any at bat an uncomfortable one.

Monday, August 4, 2025

Reviewing the 2025 Washington Nationals Trade Deadline

Traded: Michael Soroka (CHC), Kyle Finnegan (DET), Amed Rosario (NYY), Alex Call (LAD), Luis Garcia (LAA), Andrew Chafin (LAA)

Received: Christian Franklin (CHC), Ronny Cruz (CHC), Josh Randall (DET), R.J. Sales (DET), Clayton Beeter (NYY), Browm Martinez (NYY), Sean Paul LiƱan (LAD), Eriq Swan (LAD), Jake Eder (LAA), Sam Brown (LAA)

Yet again, it was a fire sale for the Nationals at the deadline. While no superstars were dealt like in years past, they still shipped off six major league assets in exchange for ten mid and low-caliber prospects. On day one, none project to be a James Wood, a CJ Abrams, or a MacKenzie Gore, but the law of averages means that in a group of ten, some will certainly over perform and there could be a few legitimate pieces here that are contributors on the next contending Nationals team. Let's dig in, trade by trade.

Trade 1 (7/26)
Yankees receive:
    - 3B Amed Rosario (age 29): 5 HR, .270/.310/.426, 1 SB, 105 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Clayton Beeter (age 26): 14.79 ERA, 12.92 FIP, 2.45 WHIP, 1/4 K/BB in 3.2 IP
    - CF Browm Martinez (age 18): 3 HR, .404/.507/.632, 13 SB, 187 wRC+ in DSL
In a trade deadline where the vast majority of activity occurred within the last 24-48 hours before the deadline, this trade feels like ancient history. Mike Rizzo had many shortcomings, but finding diamonds in the free agent rough was not one of them. Amed Rosario signed with the team for just $2 million and put up a very respectable season in Washington, seeing frequent starts at second and third base while providing a league average bat. The Yankees needed another infield bat to help an offense that suddenly went quiet, and Rosario's keen ability to hit lefties (.299/.333/.483 pre-trade) landed the Nationals a decent return. Clayton Beeter was drafted by Dodgers 66th overall back in 2020 out of Texas Tech, then went to the Yankees for Joey Gallo in 2022. He put up excellent numbers in the upper minors 2023 and 2024, but injuries slowed his ascent and he never quite caught on in the majors with just five relief appearances over two seasons. Now 26 years old, he has primarily pitched at AAA this season to good, but not great results. Primarily a starting pitcher for most of his minor league career, a high walk rate has finally forced him to the bullpen where he projects to stay long term. The stuff is pretty impressive and has missed a ton of bats in the upper minors and should play in the majors so long as he can stay ahead in counts. While the Nationals sent him to AAA Rochester after the trade, I would expect him to be on the short list to earn some innings in Washington in the near future and I could see him sticking around as a solid mid-leverage reliever. The command will likely never come together enough for a high leverage role but I feel it more likely than not that he makes himself a regular in the Nationals bullpen in some capacity in the near future. Browm Martinez, meanwhile, is the prototypical "rookie ball lottery ticket." Just 18 years old, he signed with the Yankees for $130,000 out of the Dominican Republic last year and held his own as a 17 year old in the Dominican Summer League in 2024. Repeating the level in 2025 as many kids do, he has been one of the best hitters on the island by hitting .404 with three home runs and just eight strikeouts in eighteen games. It's a tiny sample in a league where stats don't mean terribly much in the first place, but you really can't perform any better than he did and that's certainly not a bad thing. Listed at an undersized 5'10", 160 pounds, he'll look to bulk up in the Nationals' system as any kid his age would (remember he's the age of a graduating high school senior). Still, he has made a ton of contact and even hit for some power already, pointing to perhaps more offensive upside than his size would indicate. A centerfielder by trade, he has shown well out there and could stick. Martinez is many years away and a lottery ticket in its truest sense, so Nationals fans will likely have forgotten all about Amed Rosario's 47 games by the time he reaches the majors in the late 2020's.

Trade 2
Angels receive:
    - LHP Andrew Chafin (age 35): 2.70 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.60 WHIP, 18/12 K/BB in 20 IP
    - RHP Luis Garcia (age 38): 4.10 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.53 WHIP, 31/18 K/BB in 37.1 IP   
Nationals receive:
    - LHP Jake Eder (age 26): 4.91 ERA, 5.23 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 15/9 K/BB in 18.1 IP
    - 1B Sam Brown (age 23): 5 HR, .244/.350/.358, 2 SB, 117 wRC+ at AA
This trade briefly grabbed headlines because it involved three major leaguers, but ultimately it's likely to be a nothing-burger. The Angels acquired two low leverage, late career relievers in exchange for one younger low leverage, early career reliever and organizational depth at first base, a position that doesn't really require organizational depth. Given that Andrew Chafin joined the Nationals in May and Luis Garcia in July, getting anything in return for the 35 and 38 year olds, respectively, is a win. They'll join the Angels to add some depth and keep the team competitive going forward. As a fun fact that I just learned today, the Nationals previously acquired Garcia in 2009 – for Ronnie Belliard! The primary return for the Nationals here is lefty Jake Eder, a 26 year old reliever who was actually born on the exact same day as Clayton Beeter – 10/9/1998. Also drafted in 2020, he was taken by his hometown Marlins in the fourth round out of Vanderbilt and immediately put up a huge 2021 at AA Pensacola, establishing himself as a legitimate prospect. However, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2022 and he was traded to the White Sox for Jake Burger in 2023, then was sent on to the Angels for cash before the 2025 season, posting ERA's above 6.00 in the minors in each of the past three seasons. He has been developed through and through as a starting pitcher, never making a relief appearance in the minors, but has served as a long reliever in his brief major league time. He has held better command than Beeter, but the stuff is a touch lighter and he likely doesn't have enough weapons to work through a major league lineup multiple times. While he probably is what he is at this point, he could stick around for a few seasons in a long relief role and will give the Nationals some bullpen depth going forward. Meanwhile, Sam Brown is likely organizational depth more than anything else. A twelfth round pick out of Washington State in 2023, the Angels sent him straight to AA Rocket City where he struggled to hit for impact in 2024. Repeating the level in 2025, he has been incrementally better with an on-base-driven offensive profile. Brown is not a thumper with just nine career home runs and a .325 slugging percentage in 218 games, and likely never will be with high ground ball rates. He does, however, have a very professional approach at the plate that limits strikeouts and leads to a ton of walks. Given his limited defensive profile, it's unlikely he ever breaks through to a major league role without finding more impact in the bat. If the right combination of injuries happens in front of him and he's able to continue getting on base at a high clip, there is a chance he earns a cup of coffee in the majors. He's a disciplined enough hitter to handle major league pitching pretty confidently, with the main limitation being that not much may happen once the ball does come off his bat.

Trade 3
Tigers receive:
    - RHP Kyle Finnegan (age 33): 4.38 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 32/14 K/BB in 39 IP
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Josh Randall (age 22): 3.92 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 70/15 K/BB in 80.1 IP at A-/A+
    - RHP R.J. Sales (age 22): 2.71 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 63/17 K/BB in 66.1 IP at Low A
From a fan perspective, this is probably the Nationals' biggest trade of the deadline. Kyle Finnegan was a veritable Mike Rizzo masterclass, having never reached the majors after seven seasons in the A's' minor league system and signing with the Nationals as a minor league free agent in 2020. It was a bit unusual that he signed a major league contract with the team, but it worked out in spades as he went on to save 108 games in five and a half seasons, the second most in Washington Nationals history behind Chad Cordero. He'll join the Tigers for the stretch run as a high leverage reliever that could be on the "last pitch of the World Series" watch list. In return, the Nationals received a pair of low minors pitchability arms from the Tigers' 2024 draft class. Josh Randall was a third round pick out of the University of San Diego last year and has spent most of 2025 at Low A Lakeland, where he controlled the strike zone well but was more hittable than you'd hope for a college arm in Low A. He made one successful start at High A West Michigan before the trade and will report to High A Wilmington to start. Interestingly, Randall was more of a power arm early in his college career and has gradually shifted to becoming a command and control type. The fastball still comes in hard, touching 98 at peak, but its run and sink hasn't missed a ton of bats and also hasn't generated as many ground balls as hoped. He adds a solid slider and was very effective in Low A, but he'll need to miss more barrels going forward to stick in the rotation. There's a shot he does so and becomes a back-end starter, though the likelier outcome is that of a multi inning reliever whose stuff takes a step forward in short stints while maintaining above average command from a sidearm slot. R.J. Sales, the Tigers' tenth round pick in the same draft out of UNC Wilmington, has had a similar start to his career. He's pitched exclusively at Low A Lakeland, where he has been excellent over sixteen appearances (fifteen starts) albeit often against younger competition. He'll start off at Low A Fredericksburg, but I expect the Nationals to promote him to Wilmington before the end of the season. Sales has somewhat lighter stuff but has shown above average command to dice up Low A hitters. Unlike Randall, a sidearmer, Sales comes straight over the top and "looks" more like a starter. He has been up to 96 and has a similar projection as a back-end starter/long reliever. Between the two, expect one to exceed expectations and one to fall short, so hopefully we'll get one back-end starter out of this pair. If either Randall or Sales can stick around and give the Nationals a few full seasons in the back of the rotation, even if the other never reaches the majors, that's a successful trade for half a season of Kyle Finnegan.

Trade 4
Cubs receive:
    - RHP Michael Soroka (age 27): 4.87 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 87/24 K/BB in 81.1 IP
Nationals receive:
    - OF Christian Franklin (age 25): 8 HR, .265/.393/.427, 11 SB, 117 wRC+ at AAA
    - SS Ronny Cruz (age 18): 2 HR, .270/.314/.431, 10 SB, 91 wRC+ in ACL
While Kyle Finnegan has the most history in Washington, Michael Soroka was probably the biggest name traded from the Nationals from a production standpoint. Long ago a top prospect for the Braves, injuries derailed his career for a few seasons from 2020-2023 before he made a small comeback with the White Sox and eventually re-established himself as a legitimate major league arm this season in Washington. Just on a one year deal, he'll head to Chicago and fill whatever role the Cubs need from him, whether that's in the back of the rotation or in a hybrid relief role. Coming back to Washington is probably the best prospect package they got from any trade. Christian Franklin was initially a top prospect for the 2021 draft, but fell to the Cubs in the fourth round after an inconsistent junior season at Arkansas. Throughout his slow climb through the minors, he has shown extremely strong plate discipline leading to very high on-base percentages and reasonable strikeout rates. Long lauded for his raw power despite a modest 5'9" frame, he hasn't been able to consistently elevate the ball and has hit just 26 home runs in 307 minor league games. Set to turn 26 in the offseason, he may not still have the lofty upside he once possessed, but the raw traits are certainly there. He crushes left handed pitching and certainly has the batting eye to handle major league pitching in general, and if the Nationals can find a way to get him elevating the ball better (which they do not have a successful history of doing), he has a chance to be a real weapon at the plate. More likely, he profiles as a platoon outfielder who can take on a significant role and inject some juice into the Nationals' lineup against left handed starting pitchers while holding his own against righties on the days he gets those starts. While Franklin is just about ready, Ronny Cruz is much farther off. He signed with the Cubs as a relatively unheralded third round pick last year out of Miami Christian High School in Florida, then held his own in a 48 game stint in the Arizona Complex League this year as an 18 year old. There is massive upside here, albeit a long ways off. Cruz has huge raw power, blasting a baseball 108 MPH off the bat as a 17 year old at the 2024 MLB Draft Combine. While that didn't translate to home run power this year, with just two long balls in those 48 games, he did put up ten doubles and six triples making loud noises off his bat. He's understandably raw as a hitter with an unrefined approach at the plate and a lack of barrel accuracy, so the Nationals will let him take it slowly and he may spend all of 2026 at Low A Fredericksburg. Given that he was extremely young for a high school senior when he was drafted, he'll have plenty of time. Defensively, Cruz could end up at any number of positions and has a lot of physical and skill development ahead of him to determine where that may be.

Trade 5
Dodgers receive:
    - OF Alex Call (age 30): 3 HR, .274/.371/.386, 1 SB, 117 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Sean Paul LiƱan (age 20): 2.78 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 101/31 K/BB in 74.1 IP at A-/A+/AAA
    - RHP Eriq Swan (age 23): 4.43 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 77/46 K/BB in 69 IP at High A
This one might be the most interesting trade the Nationals made. Alex Call will be 31 by the time this season ends, but he still has four years of team control remaining so he'll hit free agency for the first time at age 35 if the Dodgers tender him each year. I wouldn't think the Nationals were necessarily looking to move him, but ultimately they received an offer they couldn't refuse. Call isn't the flashiest player, but he has performed better and better against left handed pitching throughout his short career to the point where he'll fill an important role even on an always-deep Dodgers roster. Meanwhile, his outfield defense will keep him earning regular playing time to go along with being a .300+ hitter against lefties. It's a nice get for Los Angeles if he can keep from regressing. Sean Paul LiƱan signed for just $17,500 out of Colombia in 2022, but gradually elevated himself into one of the top young pitchers in the Dodgers' low minors. From a crouched delivery with long arm action and nice extension, he slings the ball to the plate with a visually appealing delivery and plenty of deception. The fastball only sits low 90's but gets on hitters quick from that low slot, but his dastardly changeup steals the show with late action. If he wants to start, he'll need to find a more reliable breaking ball than his short slider, but to this point he has missed bats in bunches in the low minors. The command is still coming along, as is to be expected with a 20 year old pitcher, and will be another key in his development. If the two come together with his present stuff, he could be a mid rotation starter, with a more median outcome being a fastball/changeup reliever. It's certainly a profile that would play well in that latter role but the Nationals like his arm strength, changeup, and delivery at a very young age. He probably won't be up until 2027 unless the Nationals immediately shift him to the bullpen, which I doubt would happen. Lastly, Eriq Swan was a fourth round pick out of Middle Tennessee State in 2023, but injuries limited him to just 28.1 innings in 2024. Healthy in 2025, he has pitched the entire season at High A Great Lakes where he was recently joined by LiƱan, running nice strikeout rates but walking too many hitters. He's a fireballer, holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts and touching as high as 101 in short stints. The Dodgers have really helped him bring along a nice slider as well, coming in with power and sweep to keep hitters off balance. There's a changeup too for a change of pace off his power fastball/slider combo. While he doesn't throw with much effort, he has really struggled with command and was running an ugly 15.4% walk rate at the time of the trade, leading to serious relief questions. Barring some magic from Washington's pitching development, he's likely a reliever in the majors where he can sit close to 100 with his fastball and pull the string on the slider. He might move quicker in that role and look the part of a Josh Staumont.